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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Populus has LAB 3% ahead while Ashcroft has it level peggin
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Populus has LAB 3% ahead while Ashcroft has it level pegging
Compared with some recent Mondays today’s two polls, Populus and the Ashcroft weekly phone poll, are broadly in the same territory.The former is more favourable to Labour while the latter to the Greens. Apart from those there’s little difference between the shares for the other parties.
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Con -1
UKIP nc
LD +2
Grn nc
58% of all voters think they still haven't.
It is highly likely that this year one of the UK's major civil engineering companies will be bought by the Chinese.
It would be very interesting to see EdM enforce payment of either Corporation tax or any tax on fees, salary and benefits received by a member of the Chinese board, sat in Beijing or Shanghai.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/ANP-150202-Full-data-tables.pdf
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/region/48.stm
A combined rise of 22.5 points for UKIP / Greens in England.
"Finally, my thanks to all the Twitter followers who suggested questions to reveal more about voters’ perceptions. I will use as many as I can, but this week (with thanks to Chris Deerin)… party leaders as cartoon characters.
Mr Cameron? “Top Cat. He doesn’t get flustered”, or for those who took a less benign view, Dick Dastardly.
Mr Clegg? The clean-cut but somewhat ineffectual Fred Jones from Scooby-Doo.
Mr Miliband? The hapless but by no means unlikeable Deputy Dawg, or possibly Elmer Fudd, in perennial but fruitless pursuit of the Prime Ministerial wabbit.
For Mr Farage we have another example of what the Telegraph’s Stephen Bush has called the Sean Bean/Mr Bean dichotomy: is the real UKIP leader Andy Capp or Cruella Deville?"
Wonder how widely the media will report Ed's response re his work experience outside politics, acting as an adviser to the Brown Treasury.
Lab 33.1
Con 31.3
UKIP 14.2
LD 8.5
Grn 6.3
What "greater movement of labour" is there in it?!?
Their problem is that they're not promising enough to make anywhere near to all of that 42% enthusiastic enough to vote for them, rather than for one of the various other non-Tory parties.
Tories on 34 and UKIP on 17 equals more than half the English electorate.
"When it came to specific reservations, 63% of voters (up five points since September), including 41% of those who currently intended to vote Labour, said one of the reservations they had about the party was that “they might spend and borrow more than the country can afford”. Nearly as many of the electorate as a whole (60%), and even more current Labour voters (44%), said one of their reservations was that “I don’t think Ed Miliband would be a very good Prime Minister”. A similar overall proportion (61%), including 36% of Labour voters and 70% of swing voters, said one of their concerns was that the party has “not made clear what they would do to improve things.”
What numbers are you using?
That's all I'll say on the matter.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B82fI3yCEAEUonv.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B82e0X0CQAEAtnh.jpg
The second in particular is worth studying. More present Lib Dem supporters than present Labour supporters think that the last Labour government did a pretty good job and don't think that they have lessons to learn.
On the first table, note the difference between Labour supporters and UKIP supporters on whether Labour are on the side of people like me.
Where is Mandy now? He's nowhere near EdM politically and has little political bruvverhood.
A thread on this mood music would be fascinating. Financier said:More from Lord A's comments
"When it came to specific reservations, 63% of voters (up five points since September), including 41% of those who currently intended to vote Labour, said one of the reservations they had about the party was that “they might spend and borrow more than the country can afford”. Nearly as many of the electorate as a whole (60%), and even more current Labour voters (44%), said one of their reservations was that “I don’t think Ed Miliband would be a very good Prime Minister”. A similar overall proportion (61%), including 36% of Labour voters and 70% of swing voters, said one of their concerns was that the party has “not made clear what they would do to improve things.”
Lab 172+10 (10 from 50% 13+6 in table 2)
Con 172+11 (11 from 50% 19+3 in table 2)
LD 43+10 (10 from 50% 12+7 in table 2)
UKIP 85
LD 52
total sample 560+10+11+10 = 591
Not that I think he's very likely to lose his seat.
If I were cynical - I'd go for the former so they can get Eastbourne by default by splitting the effort. Think siege mentality.
The big polling story of the last two years has been the steady erosion of support for Labour. What reason is there to believe that this will be reversed?
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/feb/02/cathy-newman-turned-away-from-mosque-on-visitmymosque-day
Even the Tories in their 1997 meltdown (where they dropped by 11% nationwide, with the Lib Dems looking on course for something similar or perhaps a bit bigger) managed to increase their vote in two seats.
It doesn't look like Ashcroft has included all the information you would need to reconstruct his headline numbers (and therefore calculate them to 1 decimal place).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11257761/Ukip-mercilessly-mocked-over-Westminster-Cathedral-mosque-Twitter-gaffe.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/01/30/what-if-hillary-doesnt-run/
IIRC it was removed from YT a few years back but I haven't forgotten it.
Watford ?
Btw, are you the same TimT that owns a beautiful Alsatian (German Shepherd) dog, name of Heidi? It's very important not to mix one's Tims up around here.
BTW, I hope you and Casino Royale will permit me one attempt in due course to try to persuade you back to the fold... What separates us pales into insignificance when compared to our shared beliefs. In return I promise to read the Ukip manifesto...
Looked at the issue rationally, Clinton will run, probably essentially unopposed. I just have this nagging persistent feeling that she may not as there is simply no enthusiasm for her run, outside the true Clintonistas which is a shrinking clan - just a sense of inevitability. Furthermore, she is hardly exuding confidence and occupying the space with brio. And we know that 'inevitability' is a very fragile thing, particularly if something shiny, new and sexy unexpectedly pops up.
For a Republican take on the issue (and they seem to be salivating at the prospect of a Clinton coronation), see http://reason.com/blog/2015/01/29/is-hillary-clinton-the-healthcaregov-of
"Plans to build a power station at a Milford Haven gas storage plant are being mothballed by owners.
The UK government gave the green light to build the 500MW station at South Hook in October.
But the joint owners announced on Monday that the proposal will now be deferred, due to falling prices in the energy market."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-south-west-wales-31099335
On the surface of it, lower wholesale gas prices should make a new, efficient power plant right next to where ships drop off the UK's gas much more competitive surely?
What's the problem here?
Given you are projecting a Labour majority should you not be focussing your resources on the far more generous odds available on that?
Not sure what you mean.
Never had a penny on Lab maj.
BEJESUS been predicting EICIPM for months as part of a NOM result.
I have taken some profit on LAB most seats when it was 1.8ish I was on at about 2.0 but still been betting on EICIPM at the very generous odds available.
Back to 4 fig gain/loss posn on most seats and Eicipm now
Since August I have been applying the up-thread calculation, which is based on ICM's spiral of silence, to all of His Lordship's polls to try and get the quoted %-ages to make sense. Since there's only three months left till Polling Day, I'll continue with that to make things consistent!
See more at: http://theindependent.ca/2014/10/03/the-threat-of-ceta-trade-investment-and-workers-rights/#sthash.9kCUs376.dpuf
''Canada and the EU commit themselves in this chapter to “strong market access rules, prohibition of performance requirements, non-discriminatory treatment of foreign investors, and high standards of investor protection.”
''Despite being less discussed than tariff cuts and investor protection, easier movement of workers between Canada and the European Union (EU) could lead to commercial gains under the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA).
Removing barriers to labour mobility could make it easier for Canadians to tap into the vast EU market and beyond.
The biggest gains are likely to come from other parts of the deal, including labour mobility. CETA is expected to remove labour mobility barriers related to gaining temporary entry and permission to work (from 90 days to 3 years), and getting recognition of professional and technical qualifications. ''
http://www.conferenceboard.ca/press/newsrelease/14-07-31/better_labour_mobility_key_part_of_canadian_gains_from_trade_agreement_with_europe.aspx'
This is the world of globalisation and so called free trade.
Canada has significant immigration as it is and nothing to to with NAFTA. (Canada, pop 32 million, incl. 7 million immigrants, immigration 250,000 annually)
http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/05/08/young-suburban-and-mostly-asian-canadas-immigrant-population-surges/
Interesting comment on Greece from D Group Economic Letter:
Tsipras’s Cabinet selections are also provocative, and do not hint at any sort of compromise. The key figures appear to be:
- Yanis Varoufakis, 53, a super-cool ‘libertarian Marxist’ economist who holds Greek and Australian passports, who is the shiny new Finance Minister. Although his academic background (PhD from Essex University, teaching in Australia and Texas) is in game theory (which might suggest room for compromise), his style is deliberately confrontational and bombastic; indeed, he has his own very popular blog and has been an economic ‘shock-jock’ on Greek radio for some time.
- Giannis Dragasakis, 68, an ex-Communist who becomes deputy PM and who will oversee negotiations with the troika. Despite his background he is considered (at least by the people I talk to) to be a reasonably cool head – probably the most reasonable figure in the Cabinet.
- Georgios Stathakis, 62, another ex-Communist, who heads an economics “super-ministry”.
- Panagiotis Lafazanis, 62, yet another ex-Communist, who becomes Energy Minister. Even by Syriza’s standards, he is considered to be from the extreme left.
- Nikos Kotzias, 64, yet another ex-Communist, who has been a professor of politics in Piraeus, and who becomes Foreign Minister. He is said to be ‘very nationalistic’ – ie anti-German.
- Panos Kammenos, the head of ANEL, who becomes Defence Minister. He and Kotzias (despite their different backgrounds) are both ultra-nationalists, strongly anti-German and equally strongly pro-Russian. (He was also the only Cabinet minister who was sworn in by a priest, as is normal in Greece; the rest are militant atheists.)
Varoufakis has also said he wants a ‘new contract’ with Greece’s creditors – while conceding that could take months to achieve. Beyond that, one or another Minister has pledged:
- To halt the troika-imposed privatisation programme, particularly the privatization of Greece’s ports (which were in the process of being sold to the Chinese) and the Public Power Corporation, and to fire the head of the privatization programme;
- To rehire up to 16,000 civil servants (including 30 cleaners at the Finance Ministry, whose case had become a cause celebre);
- To restore public sector pensions to pre-crisis levels; and
To end a hated annual property tax (Enfia) that hit second home-owners hard.
There has also been talk of imposing new taxes on Greek shipowners – who currently pay only a (low) tonnage tax, but who insist they will pull out of Greece if there is any attempt to hit them harder. (This is a perennial issue: it is not just that they have a sweetheart tax deal, they flaunt it – to the disgust of most Greeks.)"
Would it be too much to ask you to add the suffix ZA to your name?
I'm a border collie man myself, as you can see from the Avatar. But I like GSs too - in fact most dogs.
Anyone who underestimates the CCHQ machine this time round is making a mistake.
In terms of product regulation, your sources documents the opposite of your position. They are criticising the reduction of product regulation, not the increase which you claim will happen.
Fair enough on labour migration, it's just for temporary work travels - nothing permanent.
The Sun @TheSunNewspaper 8h8 hours ago
Ed’s former friend says Labour may lose 20 seats to Ukip: http://sunpl.us/6018IvTq
Well thats 20 of my forecast 40+ seats for UKIP.
Lab membership at highest since 2005 Ground War could be interesting
Syriza minister vows to veto TTIP http://dlvr.it/8MB0by
It'll be a hoot and a half rereading that thread after the election.
Where were you yesterday PFP imposed a 1 pint fine on me for mixing you up!!
UKIP and Greens up massively since 2010. Unsurprising the blue lead is down.
More: 62%
Less: 38%
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/02/02/voters-believe-government-should-do-more-not-less/