Will be good reading for Francois Hollande, who's moved from 14 to 21% in the first round. That would still see him in third place behind Le Pen and the UMP candidate, but clearly his reponse to the Charlie Hebdo thing struck a chord. Equally encouragingly for him, he's moved into a commanding lead on the second round against Le Pen - he's now up 55:45 from being a smidgen behind last time.
Mme. Le Pen stil loses at least 60:40 (and possibly more) on any match-up against a UMP opponent in round two.
rcs1000 Indeed, some good news for Hollande, though Valls does better than him taking second place tied with Sarko and ahead of Juppe and beats Le Pen more comfortably than Hollande too
Im not sure why these are mutually exclusive? A strong safety net welfare state, well funded public services and sound economic management. You can argue where the slider is on taxes and public spending. Mainstream Conservatives would want it to be towards 35% of gdp, mainstream Labour around 40%.
The problem with public services in the UK is not underfunding.
They're mutually exclusive because if you want strong public services, lots of money is needed for them. That money can come from deficit spending, from higher taxes or from direct regulation of businesses (all of which today's Blairites probably think goes against "fiscal responsibility" and "being pro-business"), but strong public services certainly aren't going to be magicked out of thin air without any money being spent on them or with some silver-bullet "reforms".
Money is spent on them. This year it is £731,000,000,000 in total government spend. What would make them 'strong'? £750bil? £850bil? £1Tril?
Im not sure why these are mutually exclusive? A strong safety net welfare state, well funded public services and sound economic management. You can argue where the slider is on taxes and public spending. Mainstream Conservatives would want it to be towards 35% of gdp, mainstream Labour around 40%.
The problem with public services in the UK is not underfunding.
They're mutually exclusive because if you want strong public services, lots of money is needed for them. That money can come from deficit spending, from higher taxes or from direct regulation of businesses (all of which today's Blairites probably think goes against "fiscal responsibility" and "being pro-business"), but strong public services certainly aren't going to be magicked out of thin air without any money being spent on them or with some silver-bullet "reforms".
Money is spent on them. This year it is £731,000,000,000 in total government spend. What would make them 'strong'? £750bil? £850bil? £1Tril?
I'm not actually saying more money than now (in real terms) needs to be spent on them. Even after a tough few years, most public services are still just about hanging together. My objection is to both Labour and the Conservatives planning to massively cut back spending further, which really would decimate them.
rcs1000 Indeed, some good news for Hollande, though Valls does better than him taking second place tied with Sarko and ahead of Juppe and beats Le Pen more comfortably than Hollande too
Yes, really the only person who *really* hates this is Le Pen. If the right had split with two UMP candidates in round one, then she stood a real chance. With the likelihood of that diminishing by the day, and Hollande's second round score improving, her chances are receding.
But I’ll offer any PBer a bet that he’ll turn out a more successful leader than Cameron in increasing the Labour share of the vote, never forget that Dave is second rate and only put 3.7% on the Tory total.
10 £50 bets available at evens that Ed will better Daves performance.
NotMe Under Brown public spending was nearer 50% of GDP than 40%, under Major it was around 40-45%
It was only 50% following the crash, before that it oscillated between 35% and 39%. When Major left office public spending was dropping on a trajectory towards 35%, which it reached in 1999, the final year of Labour keeping to his spending plans.
Evening all and I gather that OGH has said Labour is going to win the GE and Ed Bland will be PM. I saw Dan Hodges tweeting it with some incredulity earlier.
NotMe Under Brown public spending was nearer 50% of GDP than 40%, under Major it was around 40-45%
It was only 50% following the crash, before that it oscillated between 35% and 39%. When Major left office public spending was dropping on a trajectory towards 35%, which it reached in 1999, the final year of Labour keeping to his spending plans.
http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/002073.html#more ''In inflation-adjusted terms, 2013-14 prices, there was a massive increase in total managed expenditure over the 2000-2010 period. Spending in real terms in 2009-10, £737.3bn, was 51% higher than it was in 1999-2000, £488.5bn. Think about that for a second. In a decade, the size of the state increased by just over a half. It was the biggest sustained increase in public spending in British history.''
Evening all and I gather that OGH has said Labour is going to win the GE and Ed Bland will be PM. I saw Dan Hodges tweeting it with some incredulity earlier.
I think he is incredulous about a lot of reality to be honest, though that particular one is still open to debate, just barely.
fox Which is why Greece has just elected a radical, anti austerity party and seen the Blairite Pasok trounced and why Labour is leaking votes to the Greens and SNP, the mood is not for simply rehashed Blairism and even if it were voters would vote for the Coalition parties not Labour
Those wanting the Syriza approach will be voting Green. Ed is promising Austerity too. Those that want Blairism will be voting Coalition. Who will be voting Labour? Not the Scots and hard to see them beating the 2010 total in England.
Syriza are having a brief honeymoon. They are going to come a cropper very shortly. Stupidity cannot defy gravity for long.
But I’ll offer any PBer a bet that he’ll turn out a more successful leader than Cameron in increasing the Labour share of the vote, never forget that Dave is second rate and only put 3.7% on the Tory total.
10 £50 bets available at evens that Ed will better Daves performance.
But I’ll offer any PBer a bet that he’ll turn out a more successful leader than Cameron in increasing the Labour share of the vote, never forget that Dave is second rate and only put 3.7% on the Tory total.
10 £50 bets available at evens that Ed will better Daves performance.
Im not sure why these are mutually exclusive? A strong safety net welfare state, well funded public services and sound economic management. You can argue where the slider is on taxes and public spending. Mainstream Conservatives would want it to be towards 35% of gdp, mainstream Labour around 40%.
The problem with public services in the UK is not underfunding.
They're mutually exclusive because if you want strong public services, lots of money is needed for them. That money can come from deficit spending, from higher taxes or from direct regulation of businesses (all of which today's Blairites probably think goes against "fiscal responsibility" and "being pro-business"), but strong public services certainly aren't going to be magicked out of thin air without any money being spent on them or with some silver-bullet "reforms".
I notice you didn't answer my (if I may say so) slightly more pertinent question of where the money is supposed to come from. 'Deficit spending' means putting it on the national credit card -like any credit card, a temporary solution that lasts as long as your creditors reasonably expect you to be able to pay them back with interest. Higher taxes offer no guarantee of higher returns -they can often mean you get less. I'm not sure where regulation of businesses comes in.
The fact you'll have to face is that every country that has ever successfully put in place a generous welfare state has been wealthy enough to do so. What we've not seen in the relatively short space of time such systems have existed is what happens when a country ceases to be that wealthy. That's what's happening in Europe now.
Forgive me if this is a flagrant breach of blogging etiquette, but some of you folks might be interested in this political betting analysis piece on Slugger O'Toole, analyzing the betting favourite in all 650 seats.
fox Which is why Greece has just elected a radical, anti austerity party and seen the Blairite Pasok trounced and why Labour is leaking votes to the Greens and SNP, the mood is not for simply rehashed Blairism and even if it were voters would vote for the Coalition parties not Labour
Those wanting the Syriza approach will be voting Green. Ed is promising Austerity too.
That would be logical, but I would bet that many opposed to government austerity will still vote for Labour on the basis it has to be better, because at least it's not the Tories doing it. That is certainly part of Labour's message, and amazingly it has some adherents. Labour cuts good, Tory cuts bad.
Im not sure why these are mutually exclusive? A strong safety net welfare state, well funded public services and sound economic management. You can argue where the slider is on taxes and public spending. Mainstream Conservatives would want it to be towards 35% of gdp, mainstream Labour around 40%.
The problem with public services in the UK is not underfunding.
They're mutually exclusive because if you want strong public services, lots of money is needed for them. That money can come from deficit spending, from higher taxes or from direct regulation of businesses (all of which today's Blairites probably think goes against "fiscal responsibility" and "being pro-business"), but strong public services certainly aren't going to be magicked out of thin air without any money being spent on them or with some silver-bullet "reforms".
Money is spent on them. This year it is £731,000,000,000 in total government spend. What would make them 'strong'? £750bil? £850bil? £1Tril?
I'm not actually saying more money than now (in real terms) needs to be spent on them. Even after a tough few years, most public services are still just about hanging together. My objection is to both Labour and the Conservatives planning to massively cut back spending further, which really would decimate them.
But expenditure has to be balanced over the medium term, if you dont balance the books you have to get it down to a sustainable level.
But I’ll offer any PBer a bet that he’ll turn out a more successful leader than Cameron in increasing the Labour share of the vote, never forget that Dave is second rate and only put 3.7% on the Tory total.
10 £50 bets available at evens that Ed will better Daves performance.
Fox It is not just Greece, in Spain the anti austerity Podemos are leading the polls ahead of the opposition Socialists, in Australia yesterday Queensland Labor routed the coalition on an anti-cuts platform, in the US even Obama is setting a platform of taxing the wealthy to pay for investment. The tide is beginning to move from austerity. Hollande is now overtaken by the anti austerity Marine Le Pen. Labour needs to get its core values voters in the tent, in the battle between the austerity Coalition and austerity lite voters will elect the real thing, though Cameron is almost certain to fall short of a majority
If the forum is a political/betting forum and used to discuss politics fine.
BUT IF POSTERS ARE ACTING LIKE CHILDREN AND BEING CRASS WITH NO MANNERS AND ACTING LIKE SOME TRASH TALKING DAILY MAIL EDITOR THEN THEY SHOULD BE BANNED.
BULLIES ONLY LEARN LESSONS WHEN THEY ARE PUNISHED..
SO WHY ARE RUDE, CRASS, INSULTING STONE THROWERS NOT BANNED?
Ah, now I get it. Parody.
Methinks Mr ZenPagan is a crass, ill-mannered child bully who likes being punished.
rcs1000 The fact that Marine Le Pen is on an astonishing 30% in round 1, Hollande leads her by just 10% in round 2 and Fillon has not abandoned his promise to run in round 1 no matter what happens suggests she is not done for yet
But I’ll offer any PBer a bet that he’ll turn out a more successful leader than Cameron in increasing the Labour share of the vote, never forget that Dave is second rate and only put 3.7% on the Tory total.
10 £50 bets available at evens that Ed will better Daves performance.
I did find tim tiresome for his repetition, but his total disappearance does make me wonder for his health. Anyone had contact?
Often quite shrewd too, the "Probably a mistake by Labour." was tim's initial response to weird Ed's election.
I missed his vanishing act. I've heard that he has always paid his losing bets so was wondering if anyone has any that they might have to collect in May..
But I’ll offer any PBer a bet that he’ll turn out a more successful leader than Cameron in increasing the Labour share of the vote, never forget that Dave is second rate and only put 3.7% on the Tory total.
10 £50 bets available at evens that Ed will better Daves performance.
But I’ll offer any PBer a bet that he’ll turn out a more successful leader than Cameron in increasing the Labour share of the vote, never forget that Dave is second rate and only put 3.7% on the Tory total.
10 £50 bets available at evens that Ed will better Daves performance.
But I’ll offer any PBer a bet that he’ll turn out a more successful leader than Cameron in increasing the Labour share of the vote, never forget that Dave is second rate and only put 3.7% on the Tory total.
10 £50 bets available at evens that Ed will better Daves performance.
There is a clear 'Blairite' theme running through the papers in the last week, so this could just be another attempt to cause mischief. You'd assume Labour would take a different direction if they lose in May but moving back towards a New Labour theme could really alienate the Labour grassroots and membership, especially if the country is presumably going through a second dose of Osborne austerity.
Labour Factions 1. The Blairites/New Labour 2. Old Labour – but not hard left. Brown/Balls etc 3. Ed Miliband’s young red turks – the Guardianistas 4. Hard Left – Unite (main donor) Can anyone pull these disparate groups together?
Number 4 on that list supplies the bulk of their donations. Companies and members provide very little in terms of donations. If they want to put up strong campaigns in future elections they have to keep the unions on board. Attempting to move to the centre ground could risk infuriating them and losing much needed money.
If UNITE are holding back millions from the political fund 90 days from the GE, that does not indicate that they are desperate for EdM to win. Maybe the socialist workers group really are engineering an excuse to dissaffiliate?
If UNITE are holding back funds 90 days before an election it means they are pressurising Labour to put their demands into the manifesto. I admit to not being clairvoyant - but there in an overwhelming Spock logic to this.
But I’ll offer any PBer a bet that he’ll turn out a more successful leader than Cameron in increasing the Labour share of the vote, never forget that Dave is second rate and only put 3.7% on the Tory total.
10 £50 bets available at evens that Ed will better Daves performance.
"Yet Ed Miliband is one of the very few politicians I have sat down with and had a pint - he is a normal bloke. That might be to his disadvantage now but could be turned to his advantage in the future.
And people will be interested to discover who this guy is. The man who took on his big brother, and won.
@faisalislam: Much bigger than Greece. Obama weighs in on EU austerity: "can't keep on squeezing countries in midst of depression" http://t.co/qDS6NqsAjP
@faisalislam: U.S. unimpressed with German/ Brussels leadership on €zone crisis for years... arguments within IMF... Obama picked his moment. Big stuff.
But I’ll offer any PBer a bet that he’ll turn out a more successful leader than Cameron in increasing the Labour share of the vote, never forget that Dave is second rate and only put 3.7% on the Tory total.
10 £50 bets available at evens that Ed will better Daves performance.
But I’ll offer any PBer a bet that he’ll turn out a more successful leader than Cameron in increasing the Labour share of the vote, never forget that Dave is second rate and only put 3.7% on the Tory total.
10 £50 bets available at evens that Ed will better Daves performance.
But I’ll offer any PBer a bet that he’ll turn out a more successful leader than Cameron in increasing the Labour share of the vote, never forget that Dave is second rate and only put 3.7% on the Tory total.
10 £50 bets available at evens that Ed will better Daves performance.
I did find tim tiresome for his repetition, but his total disappearance does make me wonder for his health. Anyone had contact?
Looking at the bets he is liable for his disappearance is probably more for wealth than health reasons.
tim had his moments of madness on here (don't we all?), but for me,he was one of the best posters on PB, and I think his absence cheapens the site. It involved his personal details being posted, during one of his frequent spats with Sean T, and I think tim did a bobajob and flounced, if I remember it correctly. My memory is a bit hazy, but I don't think tim was averse to a bit of personal detail outing as well. I live in hope that he returns for the GE.
But I’ll offer any PBer a bet that he’ll turn out a more successful leader than Cameron in increasing the Labour share of the vote, never forget that Dave is second rate and only put 3.7% on the Tory total.
10 £50 bets available at evens that Ed will better Daves performance.
But I’ll offer any PBer a bet that he’ll turn out a more successful leader than Cameron in increasing the Labour share of the vote, never forget that Dave is second rate and only put 3.7% on the Tory total.
10 £50 bets available at evens that Ed will better Daves performance.
I did find tim tiresome for his repetition, but his total disappearance does make me wonder for his health. Anyone had contact?
Looking at the bets he is liable for his disappearance is probably more for wealth than health reasons.
tim had his moments of madness on here (don't we all?), but for me,he was one of the best posters on PB, and I think his absence cheapens the site. It involved his personal details being posted, during one of his frequent spats with Sean T, and I think tim did a bobajob and flounced, if I remember it correctly. My memory is a bit hazy, but I don't think tim was averse to a bit of personal detail outing as well. I live in hope that he returns for the GE.
But I’ll offer any PBer a bet that he’ll turn out a more successful leader than Cameron in increasing the Labour share of the vote, never forget that Dave is second rate and only put 3.7% on the Tory total.
10 £50 bets available at evens that Ed will better Daves performance.
I did find tim tiresome for his repetition, but his total disappearance does make me wonder for his health. Anyone had contact?
Looking at the bets he is liable for his disappearance is probably more for wealth than health reasons.
tim had his moments of madness on here (don't we all?), but for me,he was one of the best posters on PB, and I think his absence cheapens the site. It involved his personal details being posted, during one of his frequent spats with Sean T, and I think tim did a bobajob and flounced, if I remember it correctly. My memory is a bit hazy, but I don't think tim was averse to a bit of personal detail outing as well. I live in hope that he returns for the GE.
But I’ll offer any PBer a bet that he’ll turn out a more successful leader than Cameron in increasing the Labour share of the vote, never forget that Dave is second rate and only put 3.7% on the Tory total.
10 £50 bets available at evens that Ed will better Daves performance.
I did find tim tiresome for his repetition, but his total disappearance does make me wonder for his health. Anyone had contact?
Looking at the bets he is liable for his disappearance is probably more for wealth than health reasons.
tim had his moments of madness on here (don't we all?), but for me,he was one of the best posters on PB, and I think his absence cheapens the site. It involved his personal details being posted, during one of his frequent spats with Sean T, and I think tim did a bobajob and flounced, if I remember it correctly. My memory is a bit hazy, but I don't think tim was averse to a bit of personal detail outing as well. I live in hope that he returns for the GE.
I did find tim tiresome for his repetition, but his total disappearance does make me wonder for his health. Anyone had contact?
Looking at the bets he is liable for his disappearance is probably more for wealth than health reasons.
tim had his moments of madness on here (don't we all?), but for me,he was one of the best posters on PB, and I think his absence cheapens the site. It involved his personal details being posted, during one of his frequent spats with Sean T, and I think tim did a bobajob and flounced, if I remember it correctly. My memory is a bit hazy, but I don't think tim was averse to a bit of personal detail outing as well. I live in hope that he returns for the GE.
So he could dish it out but not take it?
As I said, I'm a bit hazy on his flounce, but he did take a lot of flack, but he dished it out as well. You'd have had a few words with him, I suspect.
Fox It is not just Greece, in Spain the anti austerity Podemos are leading the polls ahead of the opposition Socialists, in Australia yesterday Queensland Labor routed the coalition on an anti-cuts platform, in the US even Obama is setting a platform of taxing the wealthy to pay for investment. The tide is beginning to move from austerity. Hollande is now overtaken by the anti austerity Marine Le Pen. Labour needs to get its core values voters in the tent, in the battle between the austerity Coalition and austerity lite voters will elect the real thing, though Cameron is almost certain to fall short of a majority
The problem comes when you promise an end to austerity, but then have to deliver austerity in office, either by coming to terms with your creditors, or by crashing the economy in the mould of Chavez.
If you want to have a strong safety net for the poor and services, that inevitably costs a hell of a lot of money, making "economic competence" (by it's traditional definition) impossible. And if someone believes that balanced budgets and encouraging business growth is the top priority ahead of everything else (a legitimate viewpoint even if I personally don't agree with it), then inevitably there is not going to be much resources to help the poor in any meaningful way. But you simply can't have strong public services and fiscal responsibility simultaneously, any more than you could buy a bun but keep the penny at the same time.
Yes you can. For example it was reported today that Maude has saved £14bn by improved procurement. Given he is in the Cabinet Office it is unlikely to be "front line services"
That's about £2.5bn per year over a parliament. With £2.5bn extra you can do a lot of good.
The fundamental issue with the left is that they see money as the solution to everything. The reality is that you need to figure out what you need to do, plus what you want to do, and then figure out how to deliver it as cheaply and efficiently as possible. Government isn't rocket science.
rcs1000 The fact that Marine Le Pen is on an astonishing 30% in round 1, Hollande leads her by just 10% in round 2 and Fillon has not abandoned his promise to run in round 1 no matter what happens suggests she is not done for yet
Coming a very first in Round 1 might generate a bandwagon for Le Pen in any case. Many UMP voters seem willing to go for her in Round 2 if she faces a left-winger.
SeanF Indeed as Hollande found out. Which is why I remain of the view the best result for Labour may be for the Tories to end up largest party, but again short of a majority and having to form a coalition with the LDs and or DUP. Then after Tory splits following an EU referendum for Labour to win a comfortable majority in 2020 once the finances have been restored on a platform of restoring public services investment
I find that slightly suspect if only for the fact that John Cleese is most commonly identified as a Lib Dem supporter rather than 'exlabourite'. Whilst I think what is said is quite correct, mis-attribution of opinions is very common on the internet these days so I would like to see some confirmation that he actually said this.
But I’ll offer any PBer a bet that he’ll turn out a more successful leader than Cameron in increasing the Labour share of the vote, never forget that Dave is second rate and only put 3.7% on the Tory total.
10 £50 bets available at evens that Ed will better Daves performance.
I did find tim tiresome for his repetition, but his total disappearance does make me wonder for his health. Anyone had contact?
Looking at the bets he is liable for his disappearance is probably more for wealth than health reasons.
tim had his moments of madness on here (don't we all?), but for me,he was one of the best posters on PB, and I think his absence cheapens the site. It involved his personal details being posted, during one of his frequent spats with Sean T, and I think tim did a bobajob and flounced, if I remember it correctly. My memory is a bit hazy, but I don't think tim was averse to a bit of personal detail outing as well. I live in hope that he returns for the GE.
I did find tim tiresome for his repetition, but his total disappearance does make me wonder for his health. Anyone had contact?
Looking at the bets he is liable for his disappearance is probably more for wealth than health reasons.
tim had his moments of madness on here (don't we all?), but for me,he was one of the best posters on PB, and I think his absence cheapens the site. It involved his personal details being posted, during one of his frequent spats with Sean T, and I think tim did a bobajob and flounced, if I remember it correctly. My memory is a bit hazy, but I don't think tim was averse to a bit of personal detail outing as well. I live in hope that he returns for the GE.
So he could dish it out but not take it?
As I said, I'm a bit hazy on his flounce, but he did take a lot of flack, but he dished it out as well. You'd have had a few words with him, I suspect.
Nothing major that I can recall, in fact we cobbled together a couple of decent reality TV bets between us. He did get OTT at times though
I find that slightly suspect if only for the fact that John Cleese is most commonly identified as a Lib Dem supporter rather than 'exlabourite'. Whilst I think what is said is quite correct, mis-attribution of opinions is very common on the internet these days so I would like to see some confirmation that he actually said this.
He did an interview last year from which the quote is from
But Cleese becomes serious again when I mention Ukip. “I think they’re enunciating something enormously important, which is that what really makes people happy is having a sense of identity and purpose, and the terrible thing about the European Union is that it is fundamentally a non-democratic organisation. There’s a paralysis now with people not feeling that anything they do is going to change anything.”
Would he consider voting Ukip? “I don’t think so, but I will look very carefully.” Where does he stand on immigration? “I’m all for immigration because this has always been a country of immigrants. But when they go to America they put their hand over their heart when they become a citizen and they want to be Americans. If people come here they’re most welcome, but when people come here who really don’t like our culture, that worries me because I think, 'Well why are they here if they don’t like us?’”
But I’ll offer any PBer a bet that he’ll turn out a more successful leader than Cameron in increasing the Labour share of the vote, never forget that Dave is second rate and only put 3.7% on the Tory total.
10 £50 bets available at evens that Ed will better Daves performance.
He captured nearly 100 seats (this was after a massive bout of stimulus by Labour to prop up their vote and stave off the truth). A extreme right wing party full of bogus promises prevented a further 20 victories - the actual numbers of votes in those seats were relatively small. But we need to be careful with words; in terms of, ''on the tory total'' - Cameron increased the Tory vote considerably more that 3.7%. In 2005 the tory vote was approx 8.8 million. In 2010 it was 10.7 million. Thats 1.9 million on top of 8.8 million. Two eighths is 20%... So casual words can be misleading. In terms of 'swing' there was 3.7% swing to Tories.
In fact Cameron's achievement was to poll 1 million more than Blair did in 2005. The LDs actually increased their vote share and lost 5 seats. When you have, ''650 separate election contests'' all over the country, the vote share can be misleading. The LDs put on about 0.8 million votes. Labour lost about 1 million votes - and 91 seats.
I find that slightly suspect if only for the fact that John Cleese is most commonly identified as a Lib Dem supporter rather than 'exlabourite'. Whilst I think what is said is quite correct, mis-attribution of opinions is very common on the internet these days so I would like to see some confirmation that he actually said this.
He did an interview last year from which the quote is from (it's partial quote)
But Cleese becomes serious again when I mention Ukip. “I think they’re enunciating something enormously important, which is that what really makes people happy is having a sense of identity and purpose, and the terrible thing about the European Union is that it is fundamentally a non-democratic organisation. There’s a paralysis now with people not feeling that anything they do is going to change anything.”
Would he consider voting Ukip? “I don’t think so, but I will look very carefully.” Where does he stand on immigration? “I’m all for immigration because this has always been a country of immigrants. But when they go to America they put their hand over their heart when they become a citizen and they want to be Americans. If people come here they’re most welcome, but when people come here who really don’t like our culture, that worries me because I think, 'Well why are they here if they don’t like us?’”
His seat retires in May, I wonder if he has been deselected by the Tories? In my experience councillors changing parties is almost always about personalities, egos and a lot of self preservation. Little else.
"tim had his moments of madness on here (don't we all?), but for me,he was one of the best posters on PB, and I think his absence cheapens the site. It involved his personal details being posted, during one of his frequent spats with Sean T, and I think tim did a bobajob and flounced, if I remember it correctly. My memory is a bit hazy, but I don't think tim was averse to a bit of personal detail outing as well. I live in hope that he returns for the GE."
Yep, I echo those thoughts. At his best tim could be very funny.
I find that slightly suspect if only for the fact that John Cleese is most commonly identified as a Lib Dem supporter rather than 'exlabourite'. Whilst I think what is said is quite correct, mis-attribution of opinions is very common on the internet these days so I would like to see some confirmation that he actually said this.
He did an interview last year from which the quote is from (it's partial quote)
But Cleese becomes serious again when I mention Ukip. “I think they’re enunciating something enormously important, which is that what really makes people happy is having a sense of identity and purpose, and the terrible thing about the European Union is that it is fundamentally a non-democratic organisation. There’s a paralysis now with people not feeling that anything they do is going to change anything.”
Would he consider voting Ukip? “I don’t think so, but I will look very carefully.” Where does he stand on immigration? “I’m all for immigration because this has always been a country of immigrants. But when they go to America they put their hand over their heart when they become a citizen and they want to be Americans. If people come here they’re most welcome, but when people come here who really don’t like our culture, that worries me because I think, 'Well why are they here if they don’t like us?’”
Ta TSE. Just found it a little surprising given Cleese's previous political allegiances. But as I say, I think he is right in what he says.
He did an interview in the Times, (I'm sorry I can't find it at the moment)
In it he was more open, if I remember, he really didn't like some of UKIP's tone/people.
I think some of it was to do with their views on Gays/Gay Marriage, and harking back to the 50s.
He said something like "I lived in the 50s, ask anyone who lived in the 50s and they'd prefer to live in the current decade"
I think his antipathy towards the EU is from the left, that it is undemocratic, with right wingers pushing through policies the people didn't vote for.
Just taken £40 of Ed Miliband at 2.5 - enourmous or am I missing something ?
Just read the wording of it,
Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom when the first government is formed after the next UK general election. This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election.
Just taken £40 of Ed Miliband at 2.5 - enourmous or am I missing something ?
Just read the wording of it,
Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom when the first government is formed after the next UK general election. This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election.
rcs1000 The fact that Marine Le Pen is on an astonishing 30% in round 1, Hollande leads her by just 10% in round 2 and Fillon has not abandoned his promise to run in round 1 no matter what happens suggests she is not done for yet
Coming a very first in Round 1 might generate a bandwagon for Le Pen in any case. Many UMP voters seem willing to go for her in Round 2 if she faces a left-winger.
I suspect it'll be UMP vs Le Pen (I don't buy the "two UMP candidates" theory, no matter what some have said).
Just taken £40 of Ed Miliband at 2.5 - enourmous or am I missing something ?
Just read the wording of it,
Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom when the first government is formed after the next UK general election. This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election.
If Dave forms a ministry, he's won !
Surely Ed Miliband then steps down...
Um, unless I'm mistaken, the current government remains in place until a new one is required. If the Conservatives win an overall majority, Cameron remains as Prime Minister and the current Government remains. I assume he'll throw out the Libs, but won't that technically be a reshuffle? There'll be continuity.
rcs1000 Indeed, some good news for Hollande, though Valls does better than him taking second place tied with Sarko and ahead of Juppe and beats Le Pen more comfortably than Hollande too
Yes, really the only person who *really* hates this is Le Pen. If the right had split with two UMP candidates in round one, then she stood a real chance. With the likelihood of that diminishing by the day, and Hollande's second round score improving, her chances are receding.
Le Pen can console herself with a real election result today in which the Front National came first in the first round of the vote to fill the vacancy created by Pierre Moscovici. Results were FN : 32,6%, PS : 28,8%. UMP : 26,5%.
Just taken £40 of Ed Miliband at 2.5 - enourmous or am I missing something ?
Just read the wording of it,
Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom when the first government is formed after the next UK general election. This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election.
If Dave forms a ministry, he's won !
Surely Ed Miliband then steps down...
Um, unless I'm mistaken, the current government remains in place until a new one is required. If the Conservatives win an overall majority, Cameron remains as Prime Minister and the current Government remains. I assume he'll throw out the Libs, but won't that technically be a reshuffle? There'll be continuity.
Well yes if the Tories get a majority then obviously this bet is a loser...
If David Cameron forms any kind of government after the election, what are the chances of Ed Miliband being allowed a second bite of the cherry?
This is sort of my point - I know Labour hate chucking out their leaders, but Ed miliband surely steps down in these circumstances. In which case he isn't "Next PM" where he is currently trading at shorter odds
If David Cameron forms any kind of government after the election, what are the chances of Ed Miliband being allowed a second bite of the cherry?
This is sort of my point
I was agreeing with you that this is a great bet.
You can just about imagine highly unstable Conservative-led governments where Ed Miliband stays at the top of Labour to fight an imminent second election, but even then I expect he'd be knifed.
''The Guardian reported that Fox will collect a significant undisclosed sum in the settlement, paid by Boulter’s legal insurance.'' http://www.arabianbusiness.com/dubai-businessman-settles-libel-lawsuit-brought-by-uk-mp-536743.html ''As part of the settlement, Boulter unreservedly withdrew the statement and apologised for the "embarrassment and damage to [Fox's] reputation".'' ''Outside court, Fox, who represents North Somerset, said: “I've always said that I told the truth and behaved ethically in the matters relating to this court case and I am very glad to be vindicated.” ''
'So, Mr Boulter,' as Mrs Merton might question, 'what first attracted you to the political opponent of Liam Fox MP?'
Or even, 'So Mr Farage, what first attracted you to multi millionaire ''Dubai based businessman'' and private equity tycoon, Harvey Boulter ?'
If David Cameron forms any kind of government after the election, what are the chances of Ed Miliband being allowed a second bite of the cherry?
This is sort of my point
I was agreeing with you that this is a great bet.
You can just about imagine highly unstable Conservative-led governments where Ed Miliband stays at the top of Labour to fight an imminent second election, but even then I expect he'd be knifed.
Don't back Ed Miliband though... lay David Cameron. 1.66 ! Far too short.
rcs1000 Indeed, some good news for Hollande, though Valls does better than him taking second place tied with Sarko and ahead of Juppe and beats Le Pen more comfortably than Hollande too
Yes, really the only person who *really* hates this is Le Pen. If the right had split with two UMP candidates in round one, then she stood a real chance. With the likelihood of that diminishing by the day, and Hollande's second round score improving, her chances are receding.
Le Pen can console herself with a real election result today in which the Front National came first in the first round of the vote to fill the vacancy created by Pierre Moscovici. Results were FN : 32,6%, PS : 28,8%. UMP : 26,5%.
Fox It is not just Greece, in Spain the anti austerity Podemos are leading the polls ahead of the opposition Socialists, in Australia yesterday Queensland Labor routed the coalition on an anti-cuts platform, in the US even Obama is setting a platform of taxing the wealthy to pay for investment. The tide is beginning to move from austerity. Hollande is now overtaken by the anti austerity Marine Le Pen. Labour needs to get its core values voters in the tent, in the battle between the austerity Coalition and austerity lite voters will elect the real thing, though Cameron is almost certain to fall short of a majority
Has the tide ever been in favour of austerity? It's not something you advocate to win elections, it's something you have to do after you win them because you haven't got enough money.
My latest Scottish estimates and thoughts ahead of Lord Ashcroft's polling.
My hope is that the good Lord will supplement his seat polling with a Scotland-wide poll, so that we have a benchmark against which to compare the local swings - important in Scotland vis-a-vis GB polling, because of the large house effects we’ve seen between pollsters. However, comparing the crosstabs of the Ashcroft GB polling since the referendum with my YouGov-derived estimates over the same period, it would appear that his polling produces broadly similar support for each party. All the usual caveats about crossbreaks and weighting bias apply, but it’s also worth noting that back in 2010, Populus (who are widely thought to be in charge of Lord Ashcroft’s fieldwork) produced a phone poll with almost identical figures to a pair of YouGov polls conducted a few days either side.
Fox It is not just Greece, in Spain the anti austerity Podemos are leading the polls ahead of the opposition Socialists, in Australia yesterday Queensland Labor routed the coalition on an anti-cuts platform, in the US even Obama is setting a platform of taxing the wealthy to pay for investment. The tide is beginning to move from austerity. Hollande is now overtaken by the anti austerity Marine Le Pen. Labour needs to get its core values voters in the tent, in the battle between the austerity Coalition and austerity lite voters will elect the real thing, though Cameron is almost certain to fall short of a majority
"Even Obama" LOL. You make it sound as though that is something that goes against the grain. He of the multi-year $1trillion+ deficits. Spending only came under control with sequester, not because of anything Obama did.
Ed Miliband in chaos over the NHS, Anti Business rhetoric, and now under fire from the Universities. And he cant talk about the economy or immigration. And as for Scotland !!!!
My latest Scottish estimates and thoughts ahead of Lord Ashcroft's polling.
My hope is that the good Lord will supplement his seat polling with a Scotland-wide poll, so that we have a benchmark against which to compare the local swings - important in Scotland vis-a-vis GB polling, because of the large house effects we’ve seen between pollsters. However, comparing the crosstabs of the Ashcroft GB polling since the referendum with my YouGov-derived estimates over the same period, it would appear that his polling produces broadly similar support for each party. All the usual caveats about crossbreaks and weighting bias apply, but it’s also worth noting that back in 2010, Populus (who are widely thought to be in charge of Lord Ashcroft’s fieldwork) produced a phone poll with almost identical figures to a pair of YouGov polls conducted a few days either side.
"tim had his moments of madness on here (don't we all?), but for me,he was one of the best posters on PB, and I think his absence cheapens the site. It involved his personal details being posted, during one of his frequent spats with Sean T, and I think tim did a bobajob and flounced, if I remember it correctly. My memory is a bit hazy, but I don't think tim was averse to a bit of personal detail outing as well. I live in hope that he returns for the GE."
Yep, I echo those thoughts. At his best tim could be very funny.
When thoughtful or talking about things other than politics (music, particularly), tim was great. Some of his put downs were very funny, and insightful. But his two great failings from my POV were the nastiness of his personal attacks (think his vendettas against Plato and Fitalass) once he got going, and his repetitiveness once on a rant.
Off topic, I've been watching season 2 of The 100, and it is even more shocking, and surprisingly twisted (in a good way) than the first season ever was. A surprisingly good show.
Comments
Will be good reading for Francois Hollande, who's moved from 14 to 21% in the first round. That would still see him in third place behind Le Pen and the UMP candidate, but clearly his reponse to the Charlie Hebdo thing struck a chord. Equally encouragingly for him, he's moved into a commanding lead on the second round against Le Pen - he's now up 55:45 from being a smidgen behind last time.
Mme. Le Pen stil loses at least 60:40 (and possibly more) on any match-up against a UMP opponent in round two.
Sunil's "Super-ELBOW" for January 2015, Lab 33.2, Con 32.2, UKIP 15.2, LD 7.3, Grn 6.5, lowest "monthly" Lab lead 1.0
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/561968177815748608
by @tim September 25th, 2010 at 18:15
''In inflation-adjusted terms, 2013-14 prices, there was a massive increase in total managed expenditure over the 2000-2010 period. Spending in real terms in 2009-10, £737.3bn, was 51% higher than it was in 1999-2000, £488.5bn.
Think about that for a second. In a decade, the size of the state increased by just over a half. It was the biggest sustained increase in public spending in British history.''
Syriza are having a brief honeymoon. They are going to come a cropper very shortly. Stupidity cannot defy gravity for long.
I did find tim tiresome for his repetition, but his total disappearance does make me wonder for his health. Anyone had contact?
Labour are on 33.3% in this week's ELBOW, which IIRC is higher than their GE 2010 performance. Um, does that count?
33.2% in this calendar month's "Super-ELBOW".
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AonYZs4MzlZbcGhOdG0zTG1EWkVOQzNJMHM3QXZIQlE#gid=0
The fact you'll have to face is that every country that has ever successfully put in place a generous welfare state has been wealthy enough to do so. What we've not seen in the relatively short space of time such systems have existed is what happens when a country ceases to be that wealthy. That's what's happening in Europe now.
http://sluggerotoole.com/2015/02/01/general-election-2015-the-bookmakers-perspective/
33.2% in this calendar month's "Super-ELBOW".
Don't know.. Labour are 7/4 with Shadsy to get less than 2010, Evs for less than 2010 + 3.7% has got to be poor value now?
Often quite shrewd too, the "Probably a mistake by Labour." was tim's initial response to weird Ed's election.
I missed his vanishing act. I've heard that he has always paid his losing bets so was wondering if anyone has any that they might have to collect in May..
Looking at the bets he is liable for his disappearance is probably more for wealth than health reasons.
How many took up tim's offer? You have to take a bet before you can get it settled.
None yet..
"Lot’s of hot air and no one prepared to bet that EdM will do worse in terms of increasing his party’s vote than Cameron did?
by tim September 25th, 2010 at 20:10"
Weekly ELBOW scores in 2015
11/1/15 = 33.4
18/1/15 = 33.3
25/1/15 = 32.9
1/2/15 = 33.3
"Yet Ed Miliband is one of the very few politicians I have sat down with and had a pint - he is a normal bloke. That might be to his disadvantage now but could be turned to his advantage in the future.
And people will be interested to discover who this guy is. The man who took on his big brother, and won.
by Bobajob September 25th, 2010 at 20:41"
@faisalislam: U.S. unimpressed with German/ Brussels leadership on €zone crisis for years... arguments within IMF... Obama picked his moment. Big stuff.
@faisalislam: fact that @george_osborne is meeting new ecofin colleague @yanisvaroufakis tomorrow is more interesting in light of Obama comments...
11/1/15 = 33.4
18/1/15 = 33.3
25/1/15 = 32.9
1/2/15 = 33.3
Positively plummeting towards 33.2%
Tim welched on the only bet I had with him.
tim had his moments of madness on here (don't we all?), but for me,he was one of the best posters on PB, and I think his absence cheapens the site. It involved his personal details being posted, during one of his frequent spats with Sean T, and I think tim did a bobajob and flounced, if I remember it correctly. My memory is a bit hazy, but I don't think tim was averse to a bit of personal detail outing as well. I live in hope that he returns for the GE.
11/1/15 = 33.4
18/1/15 = 33.3
25/1/15 = 32.9
1/2/15 = 33.3
It's still not close enough to the election that people have had to think of Weird Ed PM without laughing for it to have affected their poll score.
It will.
Whether it'll be enough to give the Tories a majority I don't know, but I wouldn't bet on Ed increasing the Lab share.
Tycoon who exposed Liam Fox bankrolls bid 2 oust him. Gives £30K to rival North Somerset @UKIP candidate Ian Keeley http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2934805/Tycoon-cost-Liam-Fox-Cabinet-job-bankrolls-bid-oust-MP-donating-30-000-rival-Ukip-candidate.html …
tim had his moments of madness on here (don't we all?), but for me,he was one of the best posters on PB, and I think his absence cheapens the site. It involved his personal details being posted, during one of his frequent spats with Sean T, and I think tim did a bobajob and flounced, if I remember it correctly. My memory is a bit hazy, but I don't think tim was averse to a bit of personal detail outing as well. I live in hope that he returns for the GE.
So he could dish it out but not take it?
Throw in the trend, and the usual Feb-May slump, and I think Sub-Gordon is 50-50 come May.
So he could dish it out but not take it?
As I said, I'm a bit hazy on his flounce, but he did take a lot of flack, but he dished it out as well. You'd have had a few words with him, I suspect.
Bradford Tory councillor defects to Ukip http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/11756058.Bradford_Tory_councillor_defects_to_Ukip/?ref=twtrec …
@DPMcBride: Local Tory candidate @Will_Blair leads the mourning at O'Reilly's. @Keir_Starmer & @natalieben are nowhere to be seen. Tells you everything.
@DPMcBride: It's safe to say @Keir_Starmer would rather be seen dead than be seen in a pub like O'Reilly's. If he even knows where it is. #VoteBlair
That's about £2.5bn per year over a parliament. With £2.5bn extra you can do a lot of good.
The fundamental issue with the left is that they see money as the solution to everything. The reality is that you need to figure out what you need to do, plus what you want to do, and then figure out how to deliver it as cheaply and efficiently as possible. Government isn't rocket science.
Brighton's Green Party has a storm in its harbour - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/11380517/Brightons-Green-Party-has-a-storm-in-its-harbour.html … << Greens say one thing; do something else entirely. Very LibDem.
The Greens screwing up the environment, again.
I find that slightly suspect if only for the fact that John Cleese is most commonly identified as a Lib Dem supporter rather than 'exlabourite'. Whilst I think what is said is quite correct, mis-attribution of opinions is very common on the internet these days so I would like to see some confirmation that he actually said this.
But I’ll offer any PBer a bet that he’ll turn out a more successful leader than Cameron in increasing the Labour share of the vote, never forget that Dave is second rate and only put 3.7% on the Tory total.
10 £50 bets available at evens that Ed will better Daves performance.
by @tim September 25th, 2010 at 18:15
I did find tim tiresome for his repetition, but his total disappearance does make me wonder for his health. Anyone had contact?
Looking at the bets he is liable for his disappearance is probably more for wealth than health reasons.
tim had his moments of madness on here (don't we all?), but for me,he was one of the best posters on PB, and I think his absence cheapens the site. It involved his personal details being posted, during one of his frequent spats with Sean T, and I think tim did a bobajob and flounced, if I remember it correctly. My memory is a bit hazy, but I don't think tim was averse to a bit of personal detail outing as well. I live in hope that he returns for the GE.
tim had his moments of madness on here (don't we all?), but for me,he was one of the best posters on PB, and I think his absence cheapens the site. It involved his personal details being posted, during one of his frequent spats with Sean T, and I think tim did a bobajob and flounced, if I remember it correctly. My memory is a bit hazy, but I don't think tim was averse to a bit of personal detail outing as well. I live in hope that he returns for the GE.
So he could dish it out but not take it?
As I said, I'm a bit hazy on his flounce, but he did take a lot of flack, but he dished it out as well. You'd have had a few words with him, I suspect.
Nothing major that I can recall, in fact we cobbled together a couple of decent reality TV bets between us. He did get OTT at times though
Jews Attack Derby School For Comparing UKIP With Nazis - Breitbart http://bit.ly/1uQaPlq
He did an interview last year from which the quote is from
But Cleese becomes serious again when I mention Ukip. “I think they’re enunciating something enormously important, which is that what really makes people happy is having a sense of identity and purpose, and the terrible thing about the European Union is that it is fundamentally a non-democratic organisation. There’s a paralysis now with people not feeling that anything they do is going to change anything.”
Would he consider voting Ukip? “I don’t think so, but I will look very carefully.” Where does he stand on immigration? “I’m all for immigration because this has always been a country of immigrants. But when they go to America they put their hand over their heart when they become a citizen and they want to be Americans. If people come here they’re most welcome, but when people come here who really don’t like our culture, that worries me because I think, 'Well why are they here if they don’t like us?’”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/relationships/11157618/John-Cleese-says-Ive-finally-found-true-love-in-a-fish-and-three-cats.html
He captured nearly 100 seats (this was after a massive bout of stimulus by Labour to prop up their vote and stave off the truth). A extreme right wing party full of bogus promises prevented a further 20 victories - the actual numbers of votes in those seats were relatively small.
But we need to be careful with words; in terms of, ''on the tory total'' - Cameron increased the Tory vote considerably more that 3.7%.
In 2005 the tory vote was approx 8.8 million. In 2010 it was 10.7 million. Thats 1.9 million on top of 8.8 million. Two eighths is 20%...
So casual words can be misleading. In terms of 'swing' there was 3.7% swing to Tories.
In fact Cameron's achievement was to poll 1 million more than Blair did in 2005.
The LDs actually increased their vote share and lost 5 seats. When you have, ''650 separate election contests'' all over the country, the vote share can be misleading. The LDs put on about 0.8 million votes. Labour lost about 1 million votes - and 91 seats.
But Cleese becomes serious again when I mention Ukip. “I think they’re enunciating something enormously important, which is that what really makes people happy is having a sense of identity and purpose, and the terrible thing about the European Union is that it is fundamentally a non-democratic organisation. There’s a paralysis now with people not feeling that anything they do is going to change anything.”
Would he consider voting Ukip? “I don’t think so, but I will look very carefully.” Where does he stand on immigration? “I’m all for immigration because this has always been a country of immigrants. But when they go to America they put their hand over their heart when they become a citizen and they want to be Americans. If people come here they’re most welcome, but when people come here who really don’t like our culture, that worries me because I think, 'Well why are they here if they don’t like us?’”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/relationships/11157618/John-Cleese-says-Ive-finally-found-true-love-in-a-fish-and-three-cats.html
Ta TSE. Just found it a little surprising given Cleese's previous political allegiances. But as I say, I think he is right in what he says.
Dave Morrish @moggda 33m33 minutes ago
Brits Too Ignorant to Choose Their European Fate, Says EU Bureaucrat - Breitbart http://bit.ly/1BMENJJ via @BreitbartNews
"tim had his moments of madness on here (don't we all?), but for me,he was one of the best posters on PB, and I think his absence cheapens the site. It involved his personal details being posted, during one of his frequent spats with Sean T, and I think tim did a bobajob and flounced, if I remember it correctly. My memory is a bit hazy, but I don't think tim was averse to a bit of personal detail outing as well. I live in hope that he returns for the GE."
Yep, I echo those thoughts. At his best tim could be very funny.
He did an interview in the Times, (I'm sorry I can't find it at the moment)
In it he was more open, if I remember, he really didn't like some of UKIP's tone/people.
I think some of it was to do with their views on Gays/Gay Marriage, and harking back to the 50s.
He said something like "I lived in the 50s, ask anyone who lived in the 50s and they'd prefer to live in the current decade"
I think his antipathy towards the EU is from the left, that it is undemocratic, with right wingers pushing through policies the people didn't vote for.
Just taken £40 of Ed Miliband at 2.5 - enourmous or am I missing something ?
Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom when the first government is formed after the next UK general election. This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election.
Surely Ed Miliband then steps down...
@SkyNews: DAILY MAIL FRONT PAGE: "Labour's war on Boots the chemist" #skypapers http://t.co/qJA5gvA1fF
Beers all round at Ed's place...
Labour if they have any sense, will replace him with Liz Kendall
You can just about imagine highly unstable Conservative-led governments where Ed Miliband stays at the top of Labour to fight an imminent second election, but even then I expect he'd be knifed.
http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2011/10/09/exclusive-fox-didn-t-discuss-buckley-knighthood-with-harvey-boulter
''The Guardian reported that Fox will collect a significant undisclosed sum in the settlement, paid by Boulter’s legal insurance.''
http://www.arabianbusiness.com/dubai-businessman-settles-libel-lawsuit-brought-by-uk-mp-536743.html
''As part of the settlement, Boulter unreservedly withdrew the statement and apologised for the "embarrassment and damage to [Fox's] reputation".''
''Outside court, Fox, who represents North Somerset, said: “I've always said that I told the truth and behaved ethically in the matters relating to this court case and I am very glad to be vindicated.” ''
'So, Mr Boulter,' as Mrs Merton might question, 'what first attracted you to the political opponent of Liam Fox MP?'
Or even, 'So Mr Farage, what first attracted you to multi millionaire ''Dubai based businessman'' and private equity tycoon, Harvey Boulter ?'
Whereas Kendall will never be PM or indeed Lab leader
There are no major businesses who support them because their policies are crap.
If Miliband cannot cope with what a bloke who runs a drugstore chain says how can anyone believe he can deal with Putin or ISIS etc?
My hope is that the good Lord will supplement his seat polling with a Scotland-wide poll, so that we have a benchmark against which to compare the local swings - important in Scotland vis-a-vis GB polling, because of the large house effects we’ve seen between pollsters. However, comparing the crosstabs of the Ashcroft GB polling since the referendum with my YouGov-derived estimates over the same period, it would appear that his polling produces broadly similar support for each party. All the usual caveats about crossbreaks and weighting bias apply, but it’s also worth noting that back in 2010, Populus (who are widely thought to be in charge of Lord Ashcroft’s fieldwork) produced a phone poll with almost identical figures to a pair of YouGov polls conducted a few days either side.
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/562014385120772097
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/562016603823693825
'If Miliband cannot cope with what a bloke who runs a drugstore chain says how can anyone believe he can deal with Putin or ISIS etc?'
Be patient,no doubt Chuka Harrison will come to Ed's rescue.