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  • British Tennis God Scottish Tennis Flop Andy Murray loses third set 6-3
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    edited February 2015
    It's that time of the week again! This week's ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) week-ending 1st Feb:

    Lab lead lowest since ELBOW began in August - so close to crossover, but no E-cigarette!
    Lowest LD score since ELBOW began, but as Greens also went down, their lead over the latter is intact


    Lab 33.3 (+0.3)
    Con 32.9 (+0.9)
    UKIP 15.4 (+0.9)
    LD 6.9 (-0.9)
    Grn 6.3 (-1.2)


    Lab lead 0.4% (-0.5)
    LibDem lead over Greens 0.6% (-0.2)

    Was it all you were hoping for?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,400
    notme said:

    They [Labour] had the 'golden rule', which fell apart post 2007. It is fair to say that they pushed up spending, but their deficit was sustainable (based on the incorrect assumption that Gordon Brown had abolished boom and bust).

    Brown's rationale for spending was to even out oscillations, stating that he would balance expenditure/borrowing/whateva over the economic cycle. This commitment was abandoned in 2004/5 to enable him to increase expenditure further prior to the 2005 election, and marks the point at which I started thinking "hold on, something's going wrong here..."
    notme said:

    It is fair to say that they [Labour] pushed up spending, but their deficit was sustainable (based on the incorrect assumption that Gordon Brown had abolished boom and bust).

    That assumption was wildly incorrect. Given the size of that incorrect assumption, it calls into question Brown's judgement in financial matters. No matter whether one likes the politician or not, when that politcian starts making mistakes that obviously big and wrong, it is time for them to leave
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,904
    edited February 2015
    Danny565 YBardd Which is why longer term the worst result for Labour could be a tiny overall majority followed by more austerity which would see them hameorrhage votes to the Greens and SNP while being faced by a revived Tories under Boris also winning back votes from UKIP.
    Instead the best result may be for the Tories to scrape back as the largest party, only having a majority with LD and DUP support, leaving them to complete the job of ending the deficit, as well as tearing themselves apart over the EU referendum which would result, and someone like Chuka or Andy Burnham to win a clear majority in 2020 once the finances have been restored on a promise of investing in public services again
  • Incredible. Jason Cowley, editor of Newstatesman on Miliband in the Mail:

    "Miliband is a decent, intelligent fellow, and yet he seems lost, more suited to academe than the demands of political leadership in the 21st Century."

    His magazine was the main tub thumper for Ed rather than David in leadership race. How the sinner repents...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    The thing about Andy Murray (Seriously) for a second is that whatever grandslam record he ends up with one will be able to say pretty much without doubt that he could have achieved the same record or better whenever he was born in history

    Noone else at any time has had 3 players of the quality, ability and consistency to compete against of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. So Andy's record, whatever he ends up with will stand completely on it's merits.

    That makes him without question the greatest British tennis player of all time already.
  • Its likely that this year will see the highest middle class / working class Labour voting ratio as Labour loses working class votes to UKIP and SNP while gaining guardianistas who voted LibDem in 2010.

    As Labour's working class problems are already based upon an upper-middle class metropolitan dominance of its leadership we could see a feedback loop develop.

    "gaining guardianistas who voted LibDem in 2010."

    except the ones voting Green.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Do we know if polling companies will ramp up the number of polls they produce as we approach GE15.

    E.g. ICM produce 2/3 polls a month and YouGov produce 2 polls a day....
  • Labour leads in ELBOW since August - 0.40% is their lowest yet since ELBOW began:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/561853487974084609
  • Andy is doomed DOOMED...
  • viewcode said:

    notme said:

    They [Labour] had the 'golden rule', which fell apart post 2007. It is fair to say that they pushed up spending, but their deficit was sustainable (based on the incorrect assumption that Gordon Brown had abolished boom and bust).

    Brown's rationale for spending was to even out oscillations, stating that he would balance expenditure/borrowing/whateva over the economic cycle. This commitment was abandoned in 2004/5 to enable him to increase expenditure further prior to the 2005 election, and marks the point at which I started thinking "hold on, something's going wrong here..."
    notme said:

    It is fair to say that they [Labour] pushed up spending, but their deficit was sustainable (based on the incorrect assumption that Gordon Brown had abolished boom and bust).

    That assumption was wildly incorrect. Given the size of that incorrect assumption, it calls into question Brown's judgement in financial matters. No matter whether one likes the politician or not, when that politcian starts making mistakes that obviously big and wrong, it is time for them to leave
    You'll be saying goodbye to Messrs Cameron and Osborne then, since they shared Labour's forecast of calm waters ahead.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,975
    edited February 2015
    Mike

    "However, he's working his arse off and is, in this match at least, a trier."

    Very unfair. I reckon he's the most extraordinary athlete these islands have ever produced. I did a commercial with Boris some years ago and got some understanding of what is involved in being a tennis champion and it leaves you in awe...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    MikeK said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Broken, sleazy Murray on the

    Yeah, a shame really. I'm not usually a supporter of Murray, as I don't like his demeanor, on or off the courts. However, he's working his arse off and is, in this match at least, a trier.

    BTW Good Morning All; just.
    At least he is not a poncey southern jessie, crying like a baby all the time. We are at least spared that nowadays.
  • Labour leads in ELBOW since August - 0.40% is their lowest yet since ELBOW began:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/561853487974084609

    These Elbow numbers will have been the cherry on the cake for Ed M this morning, judging by the newspapers.
  • Indigo said:

    Danny565 said:



    Obviously I disagree that it was a mess, but otherwise I agree, and that's my point. Blair's platform was to all intents and purposes more left-wing than Miliband's current platform, irrespective of whether they self-identified as "socialist" or not -- Blair stood for pumping more money into public services, while Miliband stands for cutting back on spending, a stance that 60% of the public disagree with.

    To be fair, Blair had more money, or atleast the illusion of more money, everyone knows Miliband doesnt have any money, different policies for different times. If whoever gets the economy fixed the subsequent Labour government will be able to piss it against the wall spend it on worthy causes once more.
    There's no chance of getting the economy fixed - the UK is a high cost, high tax, high regulation country competing in a globalised world economy against people who are as intelligent and educated as we are but who are willing to work harder for less money.

    The only plans for 'fixing' this is through a record increase in household borrowing - see the OBN's latest predictions as an example.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    HYUFD said:

    AnotherRichard What is clear is that Sun readers are increasingly moving to UKIP and Guardian readers to the Greens

    LOL. SUN and readers are oxymorons
  • But I recall in the previous thread header OGH was arguing that, and I quote: "The broad CON-LAB trend in the polls has barely moved since September."
    Your graph suggests however that there has in fact been a considerable movement over this period.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067

    Labour leads in ELBOW since August - 0.40% is their lowest yet since ELBOW began:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/561853487974084609

    So despite the hue and cry on here, no crossover...
  • Mr. 565, not sure that's a fair comparison. Blair had a golden economic inheritance, whereas the Coalition inherited a disaster and the situation is still bloody awful.

    That golden inheritance being based on the complete collapse of Conservative economic policy and a mountain of debt. Don't forget Cameron inhereited a growing (or recovering, if you prefer) economy too until Osborne got his hands on it.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,975
    Malc

    "SUN and readers are oxymorons "

    LOL!
  • Mr. L, a growing economy, with a deficit well over £100bn and a trillion pounds of debt?

    GDP growth matters but if debt is climbing more rapidly then GDP growth is irrelevant. We need to get the deficit under control and it's still far from there.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Roger said:

    Malc

    "SUN and readers are oxymorons "

    LOL!

    Arf
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: In an attempt to rebut allegations it is anti-business Labour will now launch an attack on Boots.

    Surely putting the Boot in?
    notme said:

    Socrates said:

    Blairism didn't believe in right wing fiscal rules. They borrowed and spent to get us into his mess.

    Danny565 said:

    taffys said:

    Reading the news sites today you would think labour are 10 points behind.

    But they aren't.

    something, somewhere, does not add up. Big time. Why are labour in total turmoil if ed is 3 points ahead in the polls? Why are half the party calling him a total loser?

    If you're a Blairite what's the one thing that is worse than another five years of David Cameron as PM?

    It's Labour winning an election with a leader who has [partially] repudiated Blairism.
    Repudiating Blairism by promising far more right-wing fiscal policies?
    They had the 'golden rule', which fell apart post 2007. It is fair to say that they pushed up spending, but their deficit was sustainable (based on the incorrect assumption that Gordon Brown had abolished boom and bust).
    That is like saying my pension plans make sense if I win the lottery (the fact this is plan A is irrelevant for these purposes). It is a ridiculous assumption.
  • Tories versus UKIP in ELBOW since it began in August:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/561854809393733632
  • Djokovic wins 7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 6-0.

    Andy simply collapsed at the end there...
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    F1: testing begins today. And, at first glance, Mercedes appear to have taken the entire off-season off, and just unveiled last year's car [it *has* changed. But not much].

    Oh, and they added 50bhp or so to the engine.

    I will be there on Tuesday, Mr Dancer. It's just down the road from me.
    If any PBers are in Jerez this week then please let me know and we can meet up for a drink.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025

    Mr. L, a growing economy, with a deficit well over £100bn and a trillion pounds of debt?

    GDP growth matters but if debt is climbing more rapidly then GDP growth is irrelevant. We need to get the deficit under control and it's still far from there.

    That is absolutely right but it also explains why our current growth is in truth not much to get excited about. Our economy will not have recovered from the Brownian catastrophe until debt is falling as a share of GDP. And we are still well short, if closer than we were in 2010.
  • Mr. M, do share if you observe anything interesting. Hope the weather's nice for you.
  • Pulpstar said:

    The thing about Andy Murray (Seriously) for a second is that whatever grandslam record he ends up with one will be able to say pretty much without doubt that he could have achieved the same record or better whenever he was born in history

    Noone else at any time has had 3 players of the quality, ability and consistency to compete against of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. So Andy's record, whatever he ends up with will stand completely on it's merits.

    That makes him without question the greatest British tennis player of all time already.

    Absolutely. Murray has the misfortune to be playing tennis at a time when being the fourth best player of his age is an accolade.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: EXCL: Big YouGov poll of Sun readers gives 7 point lead to Tories. CON 35%, LAB 28%, UKIP 26%, LD 3%, GRN 2% http://t.co/sCzG5kXaM9

    I suppose one should expect little else of the 'thickos' who read such a rag.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @TelePolitics: Blairite MP Liz Kendall emerges as favourite in Labour leadership stakes http://t.co/5VbE0gV1qk
  • Pulpstar said:

    The thing about Andy Murray (Seriously) for a second is that whatever grandslam record he ends up with one will be able to say pretty much without doubt that he could have achieved the same record or better whenever he was born in history

    Noone else at any time has had 3 players of the quality, ability and consistency to compete against of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. So Andy's record, whatever he ends up with will stand completely on it's merits.

    That makes him without question the greatest British tennis player of all time already.

    He probably is but there's been no shortage of other periods with great players:

    Borg
    Connors
    McEnroe

    Becker
    Edberg
    Lendl
    Wilander

    Sampras
    Agassi
    Courier
    Ivanisovic
    Rafter

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,904
    Murray loses, though as he has clearly declared himself a Scot rather than British while I consider myself British then English I did not have strong feelings either way
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,904
    edited February 2015
    MalcG I think the third page image is the main attraction for many Sun readers, as Murdoch quickly discovered when he restored it
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    GeoffM said:

    F1: testing begins today. And, at first glance, Mercedes appear to have taken the entire off-season off, and just unveiled last year's car [it *has* changed. But not much].

    Oh, and they added 50bhp or so to the engine.

    I will be there on Tuesday, Mr Dancer. It's just down the road from me.
    If any PBers are in Jerez this week then please let me know and we can meet up for a drink.
    Probably best if such PBers let you know privately. Anyone posting on here that they are in Jerez are likely to find themselves with severe pains in the kidney region as I plunge pins into wax models of them. Not everyone unable to travel to somewhere warm because of ill health is bravely stoic, some of us are mean minded and vicious.
  • wumperwumper Posts: 35
    For all the huffing and puffing of posters on here the election will be won in the marginals. Labour have considerable strength in numbers of people on the ground, whereas the Tories have very few as their membership is mostly aged people.
  • Mr. Llama, hope it's nothing too serious.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,904
    Tonight's runner up, Andy Murray, a 'great Scot' says the host
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited February 2015
    justin124 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: EXCL: Big YouGov poll of Sun readers gives 7 point lead to Tories. CON 35%, LAB 28%, UKIP 26%, LD 3%, GRN 2% http://t.co/sCzG5kXaM9

    I suppose one should expect little else of the 'thickos' who read such a rag.
    52% of Sun readers voted for Labour in 1997 and 2001.

    I dislike your attitude that is so quick to dismiss millions of your fellow citizens as thickos. Why the quotes, by the way? Are you not prepared to stand by your opinion?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Murray does not look happy...
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited February 2015
    Roger says... Sun and readers.. is an oxymoron..this is the man who makes a living selling tat to those same readers..what an arrogant prat.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Mr. Llama, hope it's nothing too serious.

    Nothing life threatening, Mr D, thanks for asking. Just the same crap that has bogged me down for the past 18 months or so. I really am getting fed up with it now.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    justin124 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: EXCL: Big YouGov poll of Sun readers gives 7 point lead to Tories. CON 35%, LAB 28%, UKIP 26%, LD 3%, GRN 2% http://t.co/sCzG5kXaM9

    I suppose one should expect little else of the 'thickos' who read such a rag.
    Insulting the voters: a fantastic strategy for winning an election.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,194
    edited February 2015
    I totally despair at these f-ing Blairites. What planet are they on? We are leaking votes to the left and they think the answer is to stand up for privatisation of the NHS. Either fight for a Labour government or F-off and restart the SDP. If Ed does become PM his first job should be to purge these morons and to fill the front bench with Socialists - maybe even some who are from working class backgrounds.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    justin124 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: EXCL: Big YouGov poll of Sun readers gives 7 point lead to Tories. CON 35%, LAB 28%, UKIP 26%, LD 3%, GRN 2% http://t.co/sCzG5kXaM9

    I suppose one should expect little else of the 'thickos' who read such a rag.
    What paper do you read ?

  • Incredible. Jason Cowley, editor of Newstatesman on Miliband in the Mail:

    "Miliband is a decent, intelligent fellow, and yet he seems lost, more suited to academe than the demands of political leadership in the 21st Century."

    His magazine was the main tub thumper for Ed rather than David in leadership race. How the sinner repents...

    What part could not also be applied to David Miliband? That's the trouble -- Labour has no young stars. There is no successor to Blair, Brown or Robin Cook on the shadow front bench.
  • even some who are from working class backgrounds.

    he probably doesn't know any
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    HYUFD said:

    Tonight's runner up, Andy Murray, a 'great Scot' says the host

    a great dumpling more like
  • The Scotsman really has turned into a pile of crap.

    https://archive.today/eVFuu
  • Roger said:

    Malc

    "SUN and readers are oxymorons "

    LOL!

    Inspector Morse: allowing the pages of The Sun to pass before your eyes, Lewis, does not amount to reading.

    That said, Sun readers' votes are as good as anyone else's, and they'll know if their own bit of the economy has recovered or not, whatever the tractor stats claim.
  • Incredible. Jason Cowley, editor of Newstatesman on Miliband in the Mail:

    "Miliband is a decent, intelligent fellow, and yet he seems lost, more suited to academe than the demands of political leadership in the 21st Century."

    His magazine was the main tub thumper for Ed rather than David in leadership race. How the sinner repents...

    What part could not also be applied to David Miliband? That's the trouble -- Labour has no young stars. There is no successor to Blair, Brown or Robin Cook on the shadow front bench.
    A combination of parachuting non-entities into safe seats and the Blair-Brown feud scaring off the few that made it through anyway.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    Danny565 said:

    Murray does not look happy...

    how did you notice the difference from any other occasion
  • Djokovic wins 7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 6-0.

    Andy simply collapsed at the end there...

    Like the Carthaginians at Zama.

    Djokovic = Scipio Africanus

    Andy Murray = Hannibal
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    Anyway I must off to the pub to watch the biggest club game in all the world.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
  • Just before I go to risk life and limb (the street outside my house is now an ice rink, or was this morning), a short anecdote which might be of interest. I was researching duelling for a chapter [as one does] and came across a nugget of delight on Wikipedia. Apparently, in 1808 two Frenchmen duelled one another in hot air balloons above Paris, shooting at their balloons. One was punctured, killing the duellist and his second.

    I may have to steal a balloon duel for another (unrelated) story.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    ... If Ed does become PM his first job should be to purge these morons and to fill the front bench with Socialists - maybe even some who are from working class backgrounds.

    To do what? What are the policies and programmes that this sudden influx of working-class socialists will implement but which had to be hidden from the voters prior to the election? Come to that where are these working class socialists in the ranks of Labour MPs?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    Roger said:

    Malc

    "SUN and readers are oxymorons "

    LOL!

    Inspector Morse: allowing the pages of The Sun to pass before your eyes, Lewis, does not amount to reading.

    That said, Sun readers' votes are as good as anyone else's, and they'll know if their own bit of the economy has recovered or not, whatever the tractor stats claim.
    Luckily they use X on the ballot papers or there would be plenty spoiled
  • Scott_P said:

    @TelePolitics: Blairite MP Liz Kendall emerges as favourite in Labour leadership stakes http://t.co/5VbE0gV1qk

    Oh joy. I placed a small wager on her only yesterday. She is impressive on TV at times.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    edited February 2015

    Roger said:

    Malc

    "SUN and readers are oxymorons "

    LOL!

    Inspector Morse: allowing the pages of The Sun to pass before your eyes, Lewis, does not amount to reading.

    That said, Sun readers' votes are as good as anyone else's, and they'll know if their own bit of the economy has recovered or not, whatever the tractor stats claim.
    Luckily they use X on the ballot papers or there would be plenty spoiled

    so good I posted it twice
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    What happened to Murray at 2-0 in the third set? Difficult to get a sense of it listening on the radio.
  • malcolmg said:

    Roger said:

    Malc

    "SUN and readers are oxymorons "

    LOL!

    Inspector Morse: allowing the pages of The Sun to pass before your eyes, Lewis, does not amount to reading.

    That said, Sun readers' votes are as good as anyone else's, and they'll know if their own bit of the economy has recovered or not, whatever the tractor stats claim.
    Luckily they use X on the ballot papers or there would be plenty spoiled
    so good I posted it twice
    At a previous election in sunny jockland the spoilt ballot papers were at a record level for the UK.

    (Yes I know it was all the multi-voting tripe that caused it - but allow us sassenachs to jest)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,904
    MalcolmG You are right there
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,904
    rottenborough Umunna, Burnham or Cooper are all more likely than Kendall
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    justin124 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: EXCL: Big YouGov poll of Sun readers gives 7 point lead to Tories. CON 35%, LAB 28%, UKIP 26%, LD 3%, GRN 2% http://t.co/sCzG5kXaM9

    I suppose one should expect little else of the 'thickos' who read such a rag.
    You mean the famously working class readership? There's barely a white van in the country that doesn't have a copy of the Sun on the dashboard. But it's nice to see the suspicion that you despise your traditional voter base confirmed.
  • Scott_P said:

    @TelePolitics: Blairite MP Liz Kendall emerges as favourite in Labour leadership stakes http://t.co/5VbE0gV1qk

    Oh joy. I placed a small wager on her only yesterday. She is impressive on TV at times.
    Simply awful, she would be a great choice for Labour. A younger version of Hazel....
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,194

    ... If Ed does become PM his first job should be to purge these morons and to fill the front bench with Socialists - maybe even some who are from working class backgrounds.

    To do what? What are the policies and programmes that this sudden influx of working-class socialists will implement but which had to be hidden from the voters prior to the election? Come to that where are these working class socialists in the ranks of Labour MPs?
    We actually do have some working class MPs here in the north east. It is not too late to write a socialist manifesto and then let them get on with it.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Scott_P said:
    @tnewtondunn: EXCL: Big YouGov poll of Sun readers gives 7 point lead to Tories. CON 35%, LAB 28%, UKIP 26%, LD 3%, GRN 2% http://t.co/sCzG5kXaM9

    By golly! A Tory - UKIP coalition. Huzzah!!!!!!!!!!! :);):D
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    Incredible. Jason Cowley, editor of Newstatesman on Miliband in the Mail:

    "Miliband is a decent, intelligent fellow, and yet he seems lost, more suited to academe than the demands of political leadership in the 21st Century."

    His magazine was the main tub thumper for Ed rather than David in leadership race. How the sinner repents...

    That's the trouble -- Labour has no young stars. There is no successor to Blair, Brown or Robin Cook on the shadow front bench.
    And that is something that Gordon Brown can genuinely take credit for. An entire generation of contenders knobbled by internal feuding, led by Brown, ably supported by the two Ed's
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2015
    A bit astonished by the announcement that 11 year olds will have to be able to do their 12 times tables and read a book.

    They ought to be able to do both by the age of 7 or 8.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HYUFD said:

    rottenborough Umunna, Burnham or Cooper are all more likely than Kendall

    Burnham is fatally tainted by Mid-staffs, Cooper will be hamstrung by the "anyone but Balls" brigade, and Umunna is 'the anointed one'; we know how well that works out for Labour

    Kendall is the Ed Miliband of that group
  • saddened said:

    Incredible. Jason Cowley, editor of Newstatesman on Miliband in the Mail:

    "Miliband is a decent, intelligent fellow, and yet he seems lost, more suited to academe than the demands of political leadership in the 21st Century."

    His magazine was the main tub thumper for Ed rather than David in leadership race. How the sinner repents...

    That's the trouble -- Labour has no young stars. There is no successor to Blair, Brown or Robin Cook on the shadow front bench.
    And that is something that Gordon Brown can genuinely take credit for. An entire generation of contenders knobbled by internal feuding, led by Brown, ably supported by the two Ed's
    Some Blairite revisionism, perhaps? It wasn't the Brownites who stabbed Robin Cook in the back and Mo Mowlam in the front.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2015
    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    rottenborough Umunna, Burnham or Cooper are all more likely than Kendall

    Burnham is fatally tainted by Mid-staffs, Cooper will be hamstrung by the "anyone but Balls" brigade, and Umunna is 'the anointed one'; we know how well that works out for Labour

    Kendall is the Ed Miliband of that group
    Believe me, there is no chance of anyone with a "Blairite" label winning a Labour leadership election anytime soon.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    justin124 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: EXCL: Big YouGov poll of Sun readers gives 7 point lead to Tories. CON 35%, LAB 28%, UKIP 26%, LD 3%, GRN 2% http://t.co/sCzG5kXaM9

    I suppose one should expect little else of the 'thickos' who read such a rag.
    How embarrassed you should be as this gets reposted again and again. So reminiscent of Brown's comments about Gillian Duffy at the last election. Labour really ars the nasty party when it comes to their base.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Danny565 said:

    Believe me, there is no chance of anyone with a "Blairite" label winning a Labour leadership election anytime soon.

    Oh Good. Another Hollande MkII

    Happy Days
  • saddened said:

    justin124 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: EXCL: Big YouGov poll of Sun readers gives 7 point lead to Tories. CON 35%, LAB 28%, UKIP 26%, LD 3%, GRN 2% http://t.co/sCzG5kXaM9

    I suppose one should expect little else of the 'thickos' who read such a rag.
    You mean the famously working class readership? There's barely a white van in the country that doesn't have a copy of the Sun on the dashboard. But it's nice to see the suspicion that you despise your traditional voter base confirmed.
    If you look up the fatality rate by vehicle type it turns out that light vans have the lowest fatality rate, which is rather contrary to the stereotype of white van drivers.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,194
    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: EXCL: Big YouGov poll of Sun readers gives 7 point lead to Tories. CON 35%, LAB 28%, UKIP 26%, LD 3%, GRN 2% http://t.co/sCzG5kXaM9

    I suppose one should expect little else of the 'thickos' who read such a rag.
    How embarrassed you should be as this gets reposted again and again. So reminiscent of Brown's comments about Gillian Duffy at the last election. Labour really ars the nasty party when it comes to their base.
    Duffy did make a biggoted comment. Brown should have stood by what he said.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2015
    After nearly 10 years in office, Angela Merkel's party has a lead in the polls of between 15 and 20 points:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_German_federal_election#Poll_results
  • saddened said:

    Incredible. Jason Cowley, editor of Newstatesman on Miliband in the Mail:

    "Miliband is a decent, intelligent fellow, and yet he seems lost, more suited to academe than the demands of political leadership in the 21st Century."

    His magazine was the main tub thumper for Ed rather than David in leadership race. How the sinner repents...

    That's the trouble -- Labour has no young stars. There is no successor to Blair, Brown or Robin Cook on the shadow front bench.
    And that is something that Gordon Brown can genuinely take credit for. An entire generation of contenders knobbled by internal feuding, led by Brown, ably supported by the two Ed's
    Most of the credit, Saddened.

    Cook died. I don't think anybody would blame Brown's henchmen for that.
  • malcolmg said:

    Anyway I must off to the pub to watch the biggest club game in all the world.

    Watching two pub league teams in the pub seems very appropriate.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited February 2015
    AndyJS said:

    A bit astonished by the announcement that 11 year olds will have to be able to do their 12 times tables and read a book.

    They ought to be able to do both by the age of 7 or 8.

    I'm astonished that you're astonished. In my primary schooldays the class was made to repeat the times tables from 2 to 12 every other maths lesson. And you're right that by 7 every child except for the backward, knew their tables by heart. All this without calculators. It was these damned, so called progressives, that had the bright idea that children could learn by osmosis. Well they can't and thats why more than a 3rd of our children leave school illiterate or semi-illiterate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,904
    edited February 2015
    ScottP Burnham has the backing of the unions and broad appeal, Cooper has the backing of Brownites, Umunna manages to cross the divide having backed Ed Miliband in 2010 but also being supported by Blairites. Kendall has the backing of neither unions, like Ed M, sufficient Blairites or Brownites and would be lucky to get 10 MPs behind her. Being the anointed one worked out quite well for Blair and Brown
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    edited February 2015
    That was quite a kicking Neil handed out to Javid. If he's the future for the tories they're in more trouble that I thought.
  • malcolmg said:

    Anyway I must off to the pub to watch the biggest club game in all the world.

    Watching two pub league teams in the pub seems very appropriate.
    League 1 level today, but in 5 years time probably the Conference.

    Now if only Celtic and Rangers joined the English & Welsh Football League their futures would be brighter. Still, independence and penury suits some. (Written by a supporter of an Indy Scotland).
  • MikeK said:

    Scott_P said:
    @tnewtondunn: EXCL: Big YouGov poll of Sun readers gives 7 point lead to Tories. CON 35%, LAB 28%, UKIP 26%, LD 3%, GRN 2% http://t.co/sCzG5kXaM9

    By golly! A Tory - UKIP coalition. Huzzah!!!!!!!!!!! :);):D

    It might be good, but we have to see how much socialism is in your manifesto and how many socialist get in under the UKIP MP banner.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    GeoffM said:

    F1: testing begins today. And, at first glance, Mercedes appear to have taken the entire off-season off, and just unveiled last year's car [it *has* changed. But not much].

    Oh, and they added 50bhp or so to the engine.

    I will be there on Tuesday, Mr Dancer. It's just down the road from me.
    If any PBers are in Jerez this week then please let me know and we can meet up for a drink.
    Probably best if such PBers let you know privately. Anyone posting on here that they are in Jerez are likely to find themselves with severe pains in the kidney region as I plunge pins into wax models of them. Not everyone unable to travel to somewhere warm because of ill health is bravely stoic, some of us are mean minded and vicious.
    Please accept my admiration for your robust response and my best wishes for your recovery.

    I'll buy you that Jerez beer next year then, or the year after - whenever your body returns to the good form that your spirit deserves.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,591
    edited February 2015
    AndyJS said:

    A bit astonished by the announcement that 11 year olds will have to be able to do their 12 times tables and read a book.

    They ought to be able to do both by the age of 7 or 8.

    The curriculum for English has them doing the simple story requirements by the end of Key Stage 1 (reception through year 2) at 7 years old. If there are still any children unable to do that 4 years later (by the end of KS2 so year 6) aged 11 than the school has either totally failed or there must be some very exceptional circumstances..

    Either we are missing something or the recently created National Curriculum is overly ambitious for Key Stage 1.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    saddened said:

    justin124 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: EXCL: Big YouGov poll of Sun readers gives 7 point lead to Tories. CON 35%, LAB 28%, UKIP 26%, LD 3%, GRN 2% http://t.co/sCzG5kXaM9

    I suppose one should expect little else of the 'thickos' who read such a rag.
    You mean the famously working class readership? There's barely a white van in the country that doesn't have a copy of the Sun on the dashboard. But it's nice to see the suspicion that you despise your traditional voter base confirmed.
    If you look up the fatality rate by vehicle type it turns out that light vans have the lowest fatality rate, which is rather contrary to the stereotype of white van drivers.
    Who knew that the sun newspaper was a vehicle safety accessory.
  • Incredible. Jason Cowley, editor of Newstatesman on Miliband in the Mail:

    "Miliband is a decent, intelligent fellow, and yet he seems lost, more suited to academe than the demands of political leadership in the 21st Century."

    His magazine was the main tub thumper for Ed rather than David in leadership race. How the sinner repents...

    What part could not also be applied to David Miliband? That's the trouble -- Labour has no young stars. There is no successor to Blair, Brown or Robin Cook on the shadow front bench.
    A combination of parachuting non-entities into safe seats and the Blair-Brown feud scaring off the few that made it through anyway.
    What could possibly be wrong with the speak-your-weight Labour MPs such as the leading female Rachel Reeves or the male version Chris Leslie?
  • isam said:

    Has this been discussed?

    How many current Lib Dem seats will the Tories win at the GE?

    11-15 5/4
    16-20 5/4
    21-25 5/1
    6-10 5/1
    1-5 14/1
    26-30 15/1
    31-35 33/1
    None 33/1
    Over 35 66

    https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics

    A very ungenerous 42.5% overround from Betfair in pricing this market - small wonder their share price has doubled since it entered the world of fixed odds betting - but despite their apparent greed, what must seriously concern LibDems strategists is that in order to cover the two most fancied bands, i.e. 11-15 seats and 16-20 seats, Betfair will pay you measly odds of just 1/8 on your combined stake.
    If they are right in sertting such short odds and the yellows are set to suffer other massive losses from both Labour and the SNP, then its definitely a case of 3 or 4 London Taxis being sufficient to convey their brood to and from Westminster after 7 May.
    On that basis, Ladbrokes odds of 9/2 on them winning between 11 - 20 appears to offer far better value.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited February 2015
    AndyJS said:

    A bit astonished by the announcement that 11 year olds will have to be able to do their 12 times tables and read a book.

    They ought to be able to do both by the age of 7 or 8.

    UKIP could go with "11 year olds should be able to do the 17 times table and be able to recite the bible backwards while standing on a koran." If they can't do that they get sent to the poorhouse.

    It's common sense, init?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,904
    edited February 2015
    AndyJS But the SPD, Greens and Die Linke combined are on 45% to the CDU's 41% in Germany's PR system, and the FDP are on 3%, below the 5% threshold to enter parliament. The Afd is on 6% but Merkel will not deal with them
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Mr. 565, not sure that's a fair comparison. Blair had a golden economic inheritance, whereas the Coalition inherited a disaster and the situation is still bloody awful.

    That golden inheritance being based on the complete collapse of Conservative economic policy and a mountain of debt. Don't forget Cameron inhereited a growing (or recovering, if you prefer) economy too until Osborne got his hands on it.
    Growth achieved by pulling forward capital expenditure from the next two years.

    It's easy to do, but it causes a real problem for the guy responsible for the next years budget. In my sector we call it "channel stuffing" and it is heavily heavily frowned on by investors.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    MikeK said:

    Scott_P said:
    @tnewtondunn: EXCL: Big YouGov poll of Sun readers gives 7 point lead to Tories. CON 35%, LAB 28%, UKIP 26%, LD 3%, GRN 2% http://t.co/sCzG5kXaM9

    By golly! A Tory - UKIP coalition. Huzzah!!!!!!!!!!! :);):D

    It might be good, but we have to see how much socialism is in your manifesto and how many socialist get in under the UKIP MP banner.
    Yes, we'll have to see won't we. There may be a few socialist inclined in the ranks, we will have a better picture after the UKIP Spring Conference in Margate 27/28th February, where the manifesto should be announced.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    AndyJS said:

    After nearly 10 years in office, Angela Merkel's party has a lead in the polls of between 15 and 20 points:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_German_federal_election#Poll_results

    Not necessarily a popular view on here: but I think the answer to the problem of finding a viable govt for the UK after May would be best addressed by inviting her to run the UK alongside Germany.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    MikeK said:

    Scott_P said:
    @tnewtondunn: EXCL: Big YouGov poll of Sun readers gives 7 point lead to Tories. CON 35%, LAB 28%, UKIP 26%, LD 3%, GRN 2% http://t.co/sCzG5kXaM9

    By golly! A Tory - UKIP coalition. Huzzah!!!!!!!!!!! :);):D

    It might be good, but we have to see how much socialism is in your manifesto and how many socialist get in under the UKIP MP banner.
    Indeed. The interventionist lefty nonsense creeping into UKIPs 2015 offering is very depressing for those of us who hoped for a real blossoming of the fresh libertarian ideas of 2010. It's not too late but the direction of policy flow isn't positive for me right now.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    AndyJS said:

    After nearly 10 years in office, Angela Merkel's party has a lead in the polls of between 15 and 20 points:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_German_federal_election#Poll_results

    Not necessarily a popular view on here: but I think the answer to the problem of finding a viable govt for the UK after May would be best addressed by inviting her to run the UK alongside Germany.
    It's been tried a couple of times before.
This discussion has been closed.