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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Well done to ICM and Ipsos-MORI for now providing England o
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Well done to ICM and Ipsos-MORI for now providing England only numbers
Wikipedia has new polling table – ENGLAND ONLY – where CON led by 11.5 at GE10. 3 pollsters now providing this data pic.twitter.com/8U68NH31jx
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An elderly woman was left on the floor at a care home for up to ten minutes because a nurse was praying, an inquest heard.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/9162051/Woman-died-after-Muslim-nurse-refused-to-help-as-he-was-praying.html
...hustings
"NIGEL Farage enjoyed an encouraging evening when he came out on top in last night’s Ramsgate Round Table question time.
The Ukip leader overturned a huge deficit in the entry poll at The Pavilion in Broadstairs to finish ahead of his rivals for the Thanet South parliamentary seat on the night.
Some 120 were in the audience, with 49 per cent of them showing their support for Mr Mackinlay on arrival and just 15.7 per cent backing Mr Farage
After brief opening speeches from each candidate and a series of questions, however, an ‘exit poll’ put Mr Farage on 36.9 per cent and Mr Mackinlay on 33.7 per cent."
http://www.thanetgazette.co.uk/Nigel-Farage-wins-Thanet-South-hustings-event/story-25907367-detail/story.html
Perhaps the discussion should now be about when the Green-UKIP crossover will happen.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8BqRdlCIAADg7D.png
So there's been an upswing in anti-Semitism over the last decade or two in France, the UK and Sweden. I wonder what the common denominator is?
http://www.electiongame.co.uk/greece15/
http://www.electiongame.co.uk/2015-leaders-finance/
Many thanks,
DC
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/we-would-evict-queen-from-buckingham-palace-and-allocate-her-council-house-say-greens-10000370.html
10,000+ Palestinians fm Jerusalem granted Israeli citizenship "prefer the hell of the Jews to the paradise of Hamas" http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/3407/palestinians-israeli-citizenship …
Not so surprising really if one knows the Middle East. As an Israeli might say "boker tov!". literally "good morning" but with the exclamation mark, "wake up and smell the coffee".
There is now an increasing Muslim population to stir the pot even further.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2652874/Jean-Marie-Le-Pen-accused-anti-Semitism.html
http://theconversation.com/british-voters-open-to-a-jewish-prime-minister-but-some-are-more-welcoming-than-others-36611
http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/6348088
Al Murray not being there inconsequential
The Good Lord further continues to show that his polling is the Gold Standard.
When the titles are abolished it is only fair that the wealth associated with those titles should be returned to the public trust. This should happen to all the aristocracy, any wealth which cannot be independently verified as entirely self-generated should be removed. Lizzie Saxe-Coburg-Gothe and her like should be happy to be offered a council house.
People whose life is not going to their expectations look for someone else to blame.
The result is fairly predictable, shouting, screaming and eventually sharpened stick usage.
( sociologists may give more elaborate explanations, but it boils down to the above )
The REAL Gold Standard (as it used to be) shows a 7% swing in England from the Conservatives to Labour - how many Tory losses does that equal ?
Wallenberg (in conjunction with the Swedish government) probably saved more Jews from extermination than any other individual.
http://www.ushmm.org/wlc/mobile/en/article.php?ModuleId=10005211
And the Swedish government actively helped protect the Danish Jews.
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-24427637
I suspect the problem of Anti-semitism is quite different in origin.
But for the Duke of Westminster and his ilk, the Queen and her ilk, the billions should be returned to the people.
Weren't a few people here saying that about Muslims a week or two ago?
I say give Green Leader a little tower in Lusaka.
"Give The Queen A Council House, Say Greens
The Green party leader says she would scrap the monarchy and build more council houses - giving one to the Queen if she needed it."
http://news.sky.com/story/1414174/give-the-queen-a-council-house-say-greens
Their inconvenience would be a price worth paying for the introduction of Democracy to the Republic.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2154901/Neutral-Sweden-allowed-Nazis-use-railways-occupy-Norway--transfer-Jews-death-camps-new-book-claims.html
Alternatively, it would probably be more convenient for the country just to provide them with a council house and a £10k per annum pension.
I don't think it is as clear cut as you like to imagine, it isn't as if the aristocracy of today has just become wealthy by exploiting their title, it is almost entirely derived from inheritance.
ICM's phone poll remains the Gold Standard of UK Polling.
Ashcroft's polling is Gold Standard for innovation and doing stuff pro bono publico, especially for his constituency polling, which I said the other day has probably cost him nearly two million pounds so far this parliament.
The process of disestablishing the aristocracy isn't my primary concern in any case, the main problem with aristocracy is that is is the root of the system of Patronage in the UK which has given us one of the most corrupt nations on earth and where the abomination of the House of Lords exists in 2015.
It is also a fundamentally undemocratic and anti-aspirational message which in itself can be blamed for a whole variety of deep-seated societal issues.
Bring on Barndoor at 1-0 up
We lose.
And I did laugh at calling the UK the most corrupt nation on Earth.
Backed Townsend FGS too!
Perfick
Sadly not as an accumulator.
But you miss the wood for the trees perhaps. It is that government can make such laws. It can also decide to repeal safeguards such as the ECHR (as UKIP most desperately wish to do). So at any time, for any reason, the government of the UK can seize whatever it wants.
As for corruption, just because it is more subtle, and less obvious than slipping a copper £20 (which as we now know is actually quite widespread even here) but the system of political and establishment patronage, nepotism and cronyism is corruption at a much higher (and far more profitable) level than most people think when the word "corruption" is used.
Er, 8% ???
And no, I'm still not buying the idea that the UK is the most corrupt nation on Earth.
Is Mariupol about to fall?
(SF is short for semi-final)
The Times of Israel @TimesofIsrael 11m11 minutes ago
Thousands rally against Shiite militia in Yemen capital http://dlvr.it/8DBPWk
Had an absolutely fantastic day campaigning in Gosport, really high level of Ukip support, quite astounding really! #ukip #gosport
There are two reasons for this. The first is based on feeling. The second is financial. For the former, I think it is still taking a long time for people to waken to the fact there's a GE. Actually I haven't heard a single person mention it. The second is that a lot of normal folk are skint by now after a 5 week lag between pay and Crimbo/New Year soaking up the December take home. Let's see how things begin to shake down into February.
Actually I think some of the phone pollsters have England crossbreaks going back before December, Ashcroft certainly does, but I haven't had the time to start adding them to the table. But it barely seems worth doing when it's the figures running up to the election that count.
As for the theme of this thread, we shall see what the Tory lead in England proves to be on 7th May. No doubt we will get lots of numbers from pollsters with a track record of wild inaccuracy which many on here will get excited about.
For me the only polls which will be key are Lord A's constituency polls, ICM and Ipsos-Mori. YouGov will be interesting for any trends it shows. The rest are questionable in their level of reliability as we saw with the polls leading up to the Euro elections.
It should come as no surprise that the Nazis themselves arranged to let them escape.
SS-Obergruppenführer Werner Best, Reich plenipotentiary in Denmark, and Georg Duckwitz, a German diplomat overseeing shipping, negotiated with the Swedes to take them , tipped off the Jews, and arranged for the Germany Navy to look the other way while the evacuation took place.
Or did anyone seriously believe such a thing could happen without official help?
I do find some of Mike's thread bias quite extraordinary. I mean, for the Conservatives to have an 8% lead on one recent England poll hardly merits the sort of tosh he writes when there is still more than 3 months to go.
Mike's biggest weakness is his anti-Tory bias, and it's where he regularly falls.
1 or 2 of these scenerios are possible, all 3, might be beyond them.
Labour most seats - NOM
So closer to the Greens than you think.
Not sure a straight Lab-Con comparison is the best way to look at this. UKIP and the Lib Dems (and, to a lesser extent, the Greens) could see some odd results.
Sorry Mike but you have this all wrong.
http://www.vice.com/read/who-are-the-green-party-554
Month after month for best part of two years we were subjected to that gem.
ROFL.
http://i1.birminghammail.co.uk/incoming/article7848019.ece/alternates/s615/grant-shapps.jpg
The picture never fails to provide a few laughs.
Mid-points
LAB 283+1
CON 280-2
LD 28.5+0.5
UKIP 8.5=
SNP 32.5+0.5
Glory Glory!
BRITAIN SHOULD KEEP THE MONARCHY
Scotland
Agree: 65%
Disagree: 25%
Net agreement: 40
rUK
Agree: 76%
Disagree: 16%
Net agreement: 60
Scotland/rUK gap: 20 points
http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-same-and-different/
You'll need to check the source for DNKs which will be important here.
General impression from past is a smaller majority for the monarchy but a substantially greater republican minority than in England (some polling produced only about 50% for). However, note that
1. Being a supporter of a monarch as Head of State does not equate to supporting all the paraphernalia, etc. such as the Civil List and Lords - some of those will be in favour of a slimmed down royalty, abolition of honours in their current state, the *Duke of Rothesay's interference in legislation, etc.
2. This is very context-dependent: HM has a rather different image, let's say, than some other members of the RF.
*PoW to some of you
It must be possible for UKIP to take second place there. Elson, Hardway and parts of Brockhurst should be prime UKIP territory.
Imagine forming a new countries constitution, the debate comes down to selection of a Head of State and how best to elect them. Somoene pipes up "how about we get the most charismatic psychopaths we can find, let them battle it out and whoever wins is head of state, and when they did their eldest son gets it, even if he's incapable, incompetent or mentally imbalanced."
Who sounds like the lunatic again?
Nutter.