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  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    I bought Matthew D'Ancona's book on the coalition this morning, "In It Together".

    The preface is as far as I've got so far. But that alone is pretty special, and very revealing about the Cameroons. Bear in mind Matthew D'Ancona is one of the modernisers biggest and most vocal defenders:

    "What attracted me (was)... the very specific origins of the Cameroon elite: they are a social grouping which chanced upon a political project, rather than a regular political faction like New Labour.."

    "In the case of David Cameron's set.. the gang came before the faction: indeed my first real contact with it was not through journalism at all, but on a group holiday in Tuscany in my twenties."

    "(Cameron) and Osborne called Blair "The Master" with a combination of both mirth and filial piety."

    "To add to the eccentricity of the new governing Tory elite in 2010, its ranks were suddenly swollen with leading figures from a party that, for many years, and in many ways, had treated the Conservative Party as the deadly enemy it shared with Labour, and had explored the possibility of entrenching a 'progressive majority' or a 'realignment of politics' by altering the electoral system."

    That bears repeating: That had for many years, and in many ways, treated *its own party* as as the *deadly enemy* it shared with Labour.

    Just fascinating. And so revealing.

    And I haven't even got to page 1 yet. I can't wait to read the rest.

    Are you sure he does not mean the LibDems, who joined the government in 2010 ?
    Thats how it reads. Seems pretty silly to read it otherwise.
    Plus its a book - its not going to say 'all very sensible... nothing to see, move on'.

    Plus I am not sure how it it eccentric to face up to the fact that Blair had run rings round the Tories for years. D'Ancona himself admires Blair...
    http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/matthew-dancona-tony-blairs-instincts-on-iraq-were-right--and-syria-proves-it-9077015.html

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/01/opinion/matthew-dancona-shame-on-the-blair-blamers.html?_r=0
    ... until he has to attack the tories and sell a book by pretending different.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Socrates said:

    MikeK said:

    UKIP Supporters ‏@UKIPSupporters 58s58 seconds ago
    Labour activists have been told not to talk to voters about the economy #UKIP http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/predictions/politics/11352668/Dont-mention-the-economy-Labour-activists-told.html

    They're not allowed to talk about immigration either, so that's two of the big three not to mention.

    I also note that Ed in his speech today was full-throated pro-mass immigration.
    The kippers are going to quadruple the NHS budget for blood pressure meds if Ed Miliband gets in....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Socrates said:

    MikeK said:

    UKIP Supporters ‏@UKIPSupporters 58s58 seconds ago
    Labour activists have been told not to talk to voters about the economy #UKIP http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/predictions/politics/11352668/Dont-mention-the-economy-Labour-activists-told.html

    They're not allowed to talk about immigration either, so that's two of the big three not to mention.

    I also note that Ed in his speech today was full-throated pro-mass immigration.
    Assuming your the third plank is the NHS, what the hell are Welsh Labour canvassers going to do on the doorsteps? A mime show? The evils of Tory baby-eating through the medium of interpretive dance?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,831
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Indigo said:

    isam said:

    The argument that it is something fundamentally different about Muslims, seems to me like saying black people are fundamentally different to white people, which is something you don't hear much now

    People will say that religion is a choice/colour isn't, but to many people it isn't really a choice, and many people choose not to define themselves by colour anyway

    I suggest this debate has gone as far as it is going, minds have been made up, facts now surplus to requirement, its just going to go around in circles.
    Please don't fall into the PB smart arse trap of trying to make it look as though you are being reasonable while having a dig.

    It's like saying "I'll let you have the last word" and trying to affect it as a courteousy rather than the trolling it is
    Perhaps he's not arguing because your theory is patently absurd. Of course religions are different. They are based on totally different texts, totally different concepts of God, and command followers to do totally different things. Even within single faiths there are huge differences in denominations.
    All irrelevant to the problem of terrorism and immigration

    You reckon if we swapped the number of Muslims in Europe/the World with that of another religion there would be significantly less extremism?

    We'd all get on just fine if only those 1.2bn Muslims in the world were Jewish instead?
    Not at all. The world would still have problems, they just wouldn't necessarily be of the same nature.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Caught a snippet of Eds speech today .. mesmerising...do people actually believe the garbage this lad spouts...he looks as tho he doesn't believe it either...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited January 2015
    tlg86 said:




    I don't follow it but I think a far larger proportion of QBs are black in the college game. But running/read option is a far larger part of the QB's game in college football.

    This might be an over-simplification of the situation, but the NFL is on another/very different level to college football. Robert Griffin III was a sensation in his first season at the Redskins and they implemented a read-option approach to the game successfully. I know he's had injuries (a downside to the running QB's game by the way), but I think opposition defensive coordinators have found him out and have come up with ways of neutralizing his game.

    I'm not saying that there hasn't been racism towards potential black QBs and I'm sure the proportion of QBs that are black is going up. But it still seems to me that the very best QBs in the NFL are usually white. And that's just the way it is.

    It's about 1/3rd black QBs in top college football and around 1/4 in the NFL.

    QB was one of the last positions to be desegregated. That attitudinal stigma takes a time to clear - there was time when it was thought blacks weren't clever enough to fly fighter planes. That was bollocks.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Updated UKPR polling averages:

    Con 33%
    Lab 33%
    UKIP 15%
    LD 7%
    Greens 7%

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/uk-polling-report-average-2
  • I love Christian Eriksen and want to have his babies.

    In a manly butch way.
  • Alistair said:

    tlg86 said:




    I don't follow it but I think a far larger proportion of QBs are black in the college game. But running/read option is a far larger part of the QB's game in college football.

    This might be an over-simplification of the situation, but the NFL is on another/very different level to college football. Robert Griffin III was a sensation in his first season at the Redskins and they implemented a read-option approach to the game successfully. I know he's had injuries (a downside to the running QB's game by the way), but I think opposition defensive coordinators have found him out and have come up with ways of neutralizing his game.

    I'm not saying that there hasn't been racism towards potential black QBs and I'm sure the proportion of QBs that are black is going up. But it still seems to me that the very best QBs in the NFL are usually white. And that's just the way it is.

    It's about 1/3rd black QBs in top college football and around 1/4 in the NFL.

    QB was one of the last positions to be desegregated. That attitudinal stigma takes a time to clear - there was time when it was thought blacks weren't clever enough to fly fighter planes. That was bollocks.
    Your dividing humanity into black and white disgusts me. I imagine in your disgusting Scots Nationalist / Socialist world view Obama ( " white " mother and " black " father ) is defined as black. Stick your divisive drivel up Fat Eck's bog feeder.
  • I love Christian Eriksen and want to have his babies.

    In a manly butch way.

    Hugo Lloris is quite wonderful as well.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,222
    Alistair said:

    It's about 1/3rd black QBs in top college football and around 1/4 in the NFL.

    QB was one of the last positions to be desegregated. That attitudinal stigma takes a time to clear - there was time when it was thought blacks weren't clever enough to fly fighter planes. That was bollocks.

    With absolutely no scientific evidence I'm going to suggest that playing QB in the NFL is harder than flying a (modern) fighter jet.

    Anyway, do you expect the make up of the NFL QBs to change over the next 10 to 20 years? So as the era of Brady, Manning, Brees, Rodgers, etc comes to an end gradually black QBs will come to dominate the NFL?

    Don't get me wrong, I do think perceptual prejudices exist in professional sport. I'm an Arsenal fan and during the 2011-12 season everyone was talking up RVP but I was more impressed with some of the performances of Alex Song. When we sold both in the summer of 2012 I was more concerned about losing Song.

    It occurred to me recently that if Song were white he may have received more praise. But because black players aren't associated with the playmaker qualities that he was showing during 2011-12 many fans/journalists weren't prepared to give him the credit he deserved.

    Soccernomics also makes the point that African football has struggled to progress in part due to the demands of European clubs who go to Africa to get defensive midfielders, or as they call it, the Papa Bouba Diop model. The academies concentrate their efforts into producing such players and neglect other areas of the pitch. That might be simplistic but there's probably some truth in it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    edited January 2015

    Alistair said:

    tlg86 said:




    I don't follow it but I think a far larger proportion of QBs are black in the college game. But running/read option is a far larger part of the QB's game in college football.

    This might be an over-simplification of the situation, but the NFL is on another/very different level to college football. Robert Griffin III was a sensation in his first season at the Redskins and they implemented a read-option approach to the game successfully. I know he's had injuries (a downside to the running QB's game by the way), but I think opposition defensive coordinators have found him out and have come up with ways of neutralizing his game.

    I'm not saying that there hasn't been racism towards potential black QBs and I'm sure the proportion of QBs that are black is going up. But it still seems to me that the very best QBs in the NFL are usually white. And that's just the way it is.

    It's about 1/3rd black QBs in top college football and around 1/4 in the NFL.

    QB was one of the last positions to be desegregated. That attitudinal stigma takes a time to clear - there was time when it was thought blacks weren't clever enough to fly fighter planes. That was bollocks.
    Your dividing humanity into black and white disgusts me. I imagine in your disgusting Scots Nationalist / Socialist world view Obama ( " white " mother and " black " father ) is defined as black. Stick your divisive drivel up Fat Eck's bog feeder.
    Monica foaming at the mouth and ooops picked it up wrong again , but happy to lie and smear SNP as usual.

    LOL the amount of manufactured "disgust" in that post is a hoot.
  • The latest Opinium/Observer poll today puts Labour five percentage points ahead of the Conservatives, with fewer than four months to go until polling day. Labour is unchanged compared to a fortnight ago on 33%, while the Tories are down four points on 28%, Ukip up three points on 20%, the Lib Dems down one on 7% and the Greens up two on 6%.
  • malcolmg said:

    Alistair said:

    tlg86 said:




    I don't follow it but I think a far larger proportion of QBs are black in the college game. But running/read option is a far larger part of the QB's game in college football.

    This might be an over-simplification of the situation, but the NFL is on another/very different level to college football. Robert Griffin III was a sensation in his first season at the Redskins and they implemented a read-option approach to the game successfully. I know he's had injuries (a downside to the running QB's game by the way), but I think opposition defensive coordinators have found him out and have come up with ways of neutralizing his game.

    I'm not saying that there hasn't been racism towards potential black QBs and I'm sure the proportion of QBs that are black is going up. But it still seems to me that the very best QBs in the NFL are usually white. And that's just the way it is.

    It's about 1/3rd black QBs in top college football and around 1/4 in the NFL.

    QB was one of the last positions to be desegregated. That attitudinal stigma takes a time to clear - there was time when it was thought blacks weren't clever enough to fly fighter planes. That was bollocks.
    Your dividing humanity into black and white disgusts me. I imagine in your disgusting Scots Nationalist / Socialist world view Obama ( " white " mother and " black " father ) is defined as black. Stick your divisive drivel up Fat Eck's bog feeder.
    Monica foaming at the mouth and ooops picked it up wrong again , but happy to lie and smear SNP as usual.

    LOL the amount of manufactured "disgust" in that post is a hoot.
    No surprise to see you defending colour fixated twerp Alistair. I wonder what his opinion on the number of redheads in the NFL is ?

  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Alistair said:

    tlg86 said:




    I don't follow it but I think a far larger proportion of QBs are black in the college game. But running/read option is a far larger part of the QB's game in college football.

    This might be an over-simplification of the situation, but the NFL is on another/very different level to college football. Robert Griffin III was a sensation in his first season at the Redskins and they implemented a read-option approach to the game successfully. I know he's had injuries (a downside to the running QB's game by the way), but I think opposition defensive coordinators have found him out and have come up with ways of neutralizing his game.

    I'm not saying that there hasn't been racism towards potential black QBs and I'm sure the proportion of QBs that are black is going up. But it still seems to me that the very best QBs in the NFL are usually white. And that's just the way it is.

    It's about 1/3rd black QBs in top college football and around 1/4 in the NFL.

    QB was one of the last positions to be desegregated. That attitudinal stigma takes a time to clear - there was time when it was thought blacks weren't clever enough to fly fighter planes. That was bollocks.
    Your dividing humanity into black and white disgusts me. I imagine in your disgusting Scots Nationalist / Socialist world view Obama ( " white " mother and " black " father ) is defined as black. Stick your divisive drivel up Fat Eck's bog feeder.
    Most of the apes have progressed to hurling their faeces at Farage, so congratulations on loyally sticking to Eck.

    The Guardian describes Obama as the first black president of the US. What you gonna do about that, whitey?
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    SLAB tearing itself apart in its West Coast heartlands over a £30 million housing maintenance contract with Mears Scotland.

    "one veteran councillor has already lost his job as the local authority's watchdog after questioning the deal with Mears Scotland, which is run by Willie Docherty, husband of Glasgow Labour Lord Provost Sadie Docherty."

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/council-seeks-legal-advice-on-contract-that-sparked-labour-civil-war.116358041
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516

    Caught a snippet of Eds speech today .. mesmerising...do people actually believe the garbage this lad spouts...he looks as tho he doesn't believe it either...

    Not as bad as that Cameron chappie though, most people turn the sound down and go and make a cup of tea/coffee/hemlock when ever the Beeb show one of Cameron's extended speeches.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    malcolmg said:

    Alistair said:

    tlg86 said:




    I don't follow it but I think a far larger proportion of QBs are black in the college game. But running/read option is a far larger part of the QB's game in college football.

    This might be an over-simplification of the situation, but the NFL is on another/very different level to college football. Robert Griffin III was a sensation in his first season at the Redskins and they implemented a read-option approach to the game successfully. I know he's had injuries (a downside to the running QB's game by the way), but I think opposition defensive coordinators have found him out and have come up with ways of neutralizing his game.

    I'm not saying that there hasn't been racism towards potential black QBs and I'm sure the proportion of QBs that are black is going up. But it still seems to me that the very best QBs in the NFL are usually white. And that's just the way it is.

    It's about 1/3rd black QBs in top college football and around 1/4 in the NFL.

    QB was one of the last positions to be desegregated. That attitudinal stigma takes a time to clear - there was time when it was thought blacks weren't clever enough to fly fighter planes. That was bollocks.
    Your dividing humanity into black and white disgusts me. I imagine in your disgusting Scots Nationalist / Socialist world view Obama ( " white " mother and " black " father ) is defined as black. Stick your divisive drivel up Fat Eck's bog feeder.
    Monica foaming at the mouth and ooops picked it up wrong again , but happy to lie and smear SNP as usual.

    LOL the amount of manufactured "disgust" in that post is a hoot.
    No surprise to see you defending colour fixated twerp Alistair. I wonder what his opinion on the number of redheads in the NFL is ?

    Nothing wrong with a nice redhead
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited January 2015
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Alistair said:

    tlg86 said:




    I don't follow it but I think a far larger proportion of QBs are black in the college game. But running/read option is a far larger part of the QB's game in college football.

    This might be an over-simplification of the situation, but the NFL is on another/very different level to college football. Robert Griffin III was a sensation in his first season at the Redskins and they implemented a read-option approach to the game successfully. I know he's had injuries (a downside to the running QB's game by the way), but I think opposition defensive coordinators have found him out and have come up with ways of neutralizing his game.

    I'm not saying that there hasn't been racism towards potential black QBs and I'm sure the proportion of QBs that are black is going up. But it still seems to me that the very best QBs in the NFL are usually white. And that's just the way it is.

    It's about 1/3rd black QBs in top college football and around 1/4 in the NFL.

    QB was one of the last positions to be desegregated. That attitudinal stigma takes a time to clear - there was time when it was thought blacks weren't clever enough to fly fighter planes. That was bollocks.
    Your dividing humanity into black and white disgusts me. I imagine in your disgusting Scots Nationalist / Socialist world view Obama ( " white " mother and " black " father ) is defined as black. Stick your divisive drivel up Fat Eck's bog feeder.
    Monica foaming at the mouth and ooops picked it up wrong again , but happy to lie and smear SNP as usual.

    LOL the amount of manufactured "disgust" in that post is a hoot.
    No surprise to see you defending colour fixated twerp Alistair. I wonder what his opinion on the number of redheads in the NFL is ?

    Nothing wrong with a nice redhead
    Strawberry blonde and titian are attractive, the carrot red prevalent in celtic regions doesn't please.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,222

    The latest Opinium/Observer poll today puts Labour five percentage points ahead of the Conservatives, with fewer than four months to go until polling day. Labour is unchanged compared to a fortnight ago on 33%, while the Tories are down four points on 28%, Ukip up three points on 20%, the Lib Dems down one on 7% and the Greens up two on 6%.

    Do you have dates for the fieldwork? The wide range of polls continues. Ipsos-Mori had Ukip on 11% on 11-13 January. The rise of Ukip, SNP and Greens is really making for some interesting polling.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @MonikerDiCanio
    The true redheads too much for your delicate constitution?
  • The latest Opinium/Observer poll today puts Labour five percentage points ahead of the Conservatives, with fewer than four months to go until polling day. Labour is unchanged compared to a fortnight ago on 33%, while the Tories are down four points on 28%, Ukip up three points on 20%, the Lib Dems down one on 7% and the Greens up two on 6%.

    Broken, sleazy, COWARDLY Tories on the slide?
  • I'm in the process of updating ELBOWs dating back to August to include the Greens.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    The inclusion of the outlier Ashcroft poll in the UK polling report... increases it's accuracy.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Alistair said:

    tlg86 said:




    I don't follow it but I think a far larger proportion of QBs are black in the college game. But running/read option is a far larger part of the QB's game in college football.

    This might be an over-simplification of the situation, but the NFL is on another/very different level to college football. Robert Griffin III was a sensation in his first season at the Redskins and they implemented a read-option approach to the game successfully. I know he's had injuries (a downside to the running QB's game by the way), but I think opposition defensive coordinators have found him out and have come up with ways of neutralizing his game.

    I'm not saying that there hasn't been racism towards potential black QBs and I'm sure the proportion of QBs that are black is going up. But it still seems to me that the very best QBs in the NFL are usually white. And that's just the way it is.

    It's about 1/3rd black QBs in top college football and around 1/4 in the NFL.

    QB was one of the last positions to be desegregated. That attitudinal stigma takes a time to clear - there was time when it was thought blacks weren't clever enough to fly fighter planes. That was bollocks.
    Your dividing humanity into black and white disgusts me. I imagine in your disgusting Scots Nationalist / Socialist world view Obama ( " white " mother and " black " father ) is defined as black. Stick your divisive drivel up Fat Eck's bog feeder.
    Monica foaming at the mouth and ooops picked it up wrong again , but happy to lie and smear SNP as usual.

    LOL the amount of manufactured "disgust" in that post is a hoot.
    No surprise to see you defending colour fixated twerp Alistair. I wonder what his opinion on the number of redheads in the NFL is ?

    Nothing wrong with a nice redhead
    Strawberry blonde and titian are attractive, the carrot red prevalent in celtic regions doesn't please.

    You have not visited many celtic regions I take it, Swindon as far as you get
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,712
    edited January 2015
    Just been reading a review of the authorised (allegedly) biography of Jeremy Thorpe. Wonder how it is that the Libs managed to have that guy as leader between the totally respectable, and thoughtful, Grimond and Steel. Wonder too, if publishing the goings on will do further damage to the LD's.
    As an activist during his leadership I'm left furiously thinking.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Alistair said:

    tlg86 said:




    I don't follow it but I think a far larger proportion of QBs are black in the college game. But running/read option is a far larger part of the QB's game in college football.

    This might be an over-simplification of the situation, but the NFL is on another/very different level to college football. Robert Griffin III was a sensation in his first season at the Redskins and they implemented a read-option approach to the game successfully. I know he's had injuries (a downside to the running QB's game by the way), but I think opposition defensive coordinators have found him out and have come up with ways of neutralizing his game.

    I'm not saying that there hasn't been racism towards potential black QBs and I'm sure the proportion of QBs that are black is going up. But it still seems to me that the very best QBs in the NFL are usually white. And that's just the way it is.

    It's about 1/3rd black QBs in top college football and around 1/4 in the NFL.

    QB was one of the last positions to be desegregated. That attitudinal stigma takes a time to clear - there was time when it was thought blacks weren't clever enough to fly fighter planes. That was bollocks.
    Your dividing humanity into black and white disgusts me. I imagine in your disgusting Scots Nationalist / Socialist world view Obama ( " white " mother and " black " father ) is defined as black. Stick your divisive drivel up Fat Eck's bog feeder.
    Monica foaming at the mouth and ooops picked it up wrong again , but happy to lie and smear SNP as usual.

    LOL the amount of manufactured "disgust" in that post is a hoot.
    No surprise to see you defending colour fixated twerp Alistair. I wonder what his opinion on the number of redheads in the NFL is ?

    Nothing wrong with a nice redhead
    Strawberry blonde and titian are attractive, the carrot red prevalent in celtic regions doesn't please.

    So racial stereotyping is OK in some contexts?

    Please post a link to a recent photograph of yourself to illustrate what the redheads of the gaeltacht are missing out on. LOL, I confidently expect.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538

    The latest Opinium/Observer poll today puts Labour five percentage points ahead of the Conservatives, with fewer than four months to go until polling day. Labour is unchanged compared to a fortnight ago on 33%, while the Tories are down four points on 28%, Ukip up three points on 20%, the Lib Dems down one on 7% and the Greens up two on 6%.

    Is 20% UKIP's highest score with Opinium?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Terrible poll for Con but on the face of it an outlier. Last 11 polls (since TNS):

    - Seven have Con on 32
    - Three have Con on 33
    - One has Con on 34

    That's a pretty solid indicator that they are in the range 32 to 32.5.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538

    The latest Opinium/Observer poll today puts Labour five percentage points ahead of the Conservatives, with fewer than four months to go until polling day. Labour is unchanged compared to a fortnight ago on 33%, while the Tories are down four points on 28%, Ukip up three points on 20%, the Lib Dems down one on 7% and the Greens up two on 6%.

    Broken, sleazy, COWARDLY Tories on the slide?
    TGOHF will be along to say "We're past peak kipper."
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,222
    Sean_F said:

    The latest Opinium/Observer poll today puts Labour five percentage points ahead of the Conservatives, with fewer than four months to go until polling day. Labour is unchanged compared to a fortnight ago on 33%, while the Tories are down four points on 28%, Ukip up three points on 20%, the Lib Dems down one on 7% and the Greens up two on 6%.

    Is 20% UKIP's highest score with Opinium?
    I think they were on 21% with them in August.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited January 2015
    Sean_F said:

    The latest Opinium/Observer poll today puts Labour five percentage points ahead of the Conservatives, with fewer than four months to go until polling day. Labour is unchanged compared to a fortnight ago on 33%, while the Tories are down four points on 28%, Ukip up three points on 20%, the Lib Dems down one on 7% and the Greens up two on 6%.

    Is 20% UKIP's highest score with Opinium?
    No they've been on 21% with Opinium twice before.

    Last time was 15th of AUGUST 2014.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Keir Hardie's first leaflet:

    https://thelearningprofessor.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/hardie_elect.jpg

    Maybe Ed should recycle it 130 years later - minus "Home Rule" of course.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Just been reading a review of the authorised (allegedly) biography of Jeremy Thorpe. Wonder how it is that the Libs managed to have that guy as leader between the totally respectable, and thoughtful, Grimond and Steel. Wonder too, if publishing the goings on will do further damage to the LD's.
    As an activist during his leadership I'm left furiously thinking.

    They had a few 'interesting' people in the party at the time.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2015
    Sean_F said:

    The latest Opinium/Observer poll today puts Labour five percentage points ahead of the Conservatives, with fewer than four months to go until polling day. Labour is unchanged compared to a fortnight ago on 33%, while the Tories are down four points on 28%, Ukip up three points on 20%, the Lib Dems down one on 7% and the Greens up two on 6%.

    Is 20% UKIP's highest score with Opinium?
    Another outlier following the two 18%s in the week

    "Peak Kipper"
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,384
    edited January 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    The inclusion of the outlier Ashcroft poll in the UK polling report... increases it's accuracy.

    Got everything set for the first Super Polling Saturday of the election!

    #bringit

  • Opinium is really bad news for the Tories who appear stuck in a rut. Yet Sporting continue to offer them as a sell at 280 seats which looks like good value to me, but DYOR.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Eagles, will you be voting for Clegg - I'll be happy to help him get re-elected, campaign out and about in Hallem. This has nothing to do whatsoever with the 4-9 at Betfair Sportsbook on him earlier ... *cough*
  • GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The inclusion of the outlier Ashcroft poll in the UK polling report... increases it's accuracy.

    Got everything set for the first Super Polling Saturday of the election!

    #bringit

    "Good evening, ladies and gentlemen! We are tonight's entertainment!"
  • Pulpstar said:

    Eagles, will you be voting for Clegg - I'll be happy to help him get re-elected, campaign out and about in Hallem. This has nothing to do whatsoever with the 4-9 at Betfair Sportsbook on him earlier ... *cough*

    Sunil and I have agreed to a deal.

    He's going to Tory in the marginal of Ilford North and if I vote Tory in Sheffield Hallam.

    I am prepared to trade my vote and gazump Sunil if any non Tory voter in Rochester and Strood votes Tory, and wants me to vote Labour (or anyone else) in Sheffield Hallam.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,384
    Are we getting the ComRes/IoS poll tonight? I think it's due, but no poll alert on John Rentoul's blog?
  • GIN1138 said:

    Are we getting the ComRes/IoS poll tonight? I think it's due, but no poll alert on John Rentoul's blog?

    Yes we are.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,384

    GIN1138 said:

    Are we getting the ComRes/IoS poll tonight? I think it's due, but no poll alert on John Rentoul's blog?

    Yes we are.
    #getin

  • isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    The latest Opinium/Observer poll today puts Labour five percentage points ahead of the Conservatives, with fewer than four months to go until polling day. Labour is unchanged compared to a fortnight ago on 33%, while the Tories are down four points on 28%, Ukip up three points on 20%, the Lib Dems down one on 7% and the Greens up two on 6%.

    Is 20% UKIP's highest score with Opinium?
    Another outlier following the two 18%s in the week

    "Peak Kipper"
    Oh, you look nervous. Is it the ELBOWs? You wanna know how I got 'em?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,712
    edited January 2015
    philiph said:

    Just been reading a review of the authorised (allegedly) biography of Jeremy Thorpe. Wonder how it is that the Libs managed to have that guy as leader between the totally respectable, and thoughtful, Grimond and Steel. Wonder too, if publishing the goings on will do further damage to the LD's.
    As an activist during his leadership I'm left furiously thinking.

    They had a few 'interesting' people in the party at the time.
    Bessell comes to mind for one. Big Cyril as well, although I'm by no means convinced that he was as bad as currently painted.
    Incidentally Thorpe and Smith were by no means friendly to each other!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    The latest Opinium/Observer poll today puts Labour five percentage points ahead of the Conservatives, with fewer than four months to go until polling day. Labour is unchanged compared to a fortnight ago on 33%, while the Tories are down four points on 28%, Ukip up three points on 20%, the Lib Dems down one on 7% and the Greens up two on 6%.

    Is 20% UKIP's highest score with Opinium?
    Another outlier following the two 18%s in the week

    "Peak Kipper"
    Oh, you look nervous. Is it the ELBOWs? You wanna know how I got 'em?
    There are two more polls tonight and I guess they'll both be 11-12% for UKIP (normal) to compensate for yet another outlier, and all we will hear is "Peak Kipper" "look at the wikigraph" "No I don't want to bet" etc
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    philiph said:

    Just been reading a review of the authorised (allegedly) biography of Jeremy Thorpe. Wonder how it is that the Libs managed to have that guy as leader between the totally respectable, and thoughtful, Grimond and Steel. Wonder too, if publishing the goings on will do further damage to the LD's.
    As an activist during his leadership I'm left furiously thinking.

    They had a few 'interesting' people in the party at the time.
    One thing I love about the National Liberal Club is they have a portrait of Thorpe, but it's hidden behind a pillar.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    The latest Opinium/Observer poll today puts Labour five percentage points ahead of the Conservatives, with fewer than four months to go until polling day. Labour is unchanged compared to a fortnight ago on 33%, while the Tories are down four points on 28%, Ukip up three points on 20%, the Lib Dems down one on 7% and the Greens up two on 6%.

    Is 20% UKIP's highest score with Opinium?
    Another outlier following the two 18%s in the week

    "Peak Kipper"
    Oh, you look nervous. Is it the ELBOWs? You wanna know how I got 'em?
    There are two more polls tonight and I guess they'll both be 11-12% for UKIP (normal) to compensate for yet another outlier, and all we will hear is "Peak Kipper" "look at the wikigraph" "No I don't want to bet" etc
    What are the terms

    Am I backing or laying

    Does 1-2 mean that if I bet £5 you give me £10

    etc ^_~
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,567

    Indigo said:

    The underlying situation remains the one I mentioned here back in 2008 - that in a globalised world economy the UK is competing against peoples which are as intelligent and educated as we are but who are willing to work harder for less money and under fewer restrictions.

    How then do we afford our higher living standards ?

    The answer is that we don't, we simply borrow £100bn plus each and every year to keep the pretence going.

    At some point that comes to a painful ending and the longer it is delayed the more painful it will be.

    Very much this. The response from politicians is largely a massed inserting of fingers in ears and loud incantations of "la-la-la", the good Dr Palmer being an honorable exception who has starting to discuss this on his blog I notice.
    I never knew that NP has his own blog, will have a look later.
    There is indeed some interesting thoughts:

    http://www.nickpalmer.org.uk/

    Thanks both - I try to keep it interesting, though from time to time I just do a partisan or local piece. As an exercise in masochism, I keep online everything I've ever written on the blog back to 2001 here:

    https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/Broxtoweinfo/conversations/messages

    and it's got a search facility so people can find me defending the Iraq war, speaking up for ID cards, chatting about being a Communist when young and so on. My theory is that you shouldn't uninvent your past views and by being open about them I get some credibility when I say "but now I think..."

    The "Tories for Palmer" group was entirely recruited from the blog (which has around 10% of households as subscribers, though who knows how many really read it).
  • Pulpstar said:

    Eagles, will you be voting for Clegg - I'll be happy to help him get re-elected, campaign out and about in Hallem. This has nothing to do whatsoever with the 4-9 at Betfair Sportsbook on him earlier ... *cough*

    Sunil and I have agreed to a deal.

    He's going to Tory in the marginal of Ilford North and if I vote Tory in Sheffield Hallam.

    I am prepared to trade my vote and gazump Sunil if any non Tory voter in Rochester and Strood votes Tory, and wants me to vote Labour (or anyone else) in Sheffield Hallam.
    Here's hoping you don't gazump me :)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538

    philiph said:

    Just been reading a review of the authorised (allegedly) biography of Jeremy Thorpe. Wonder how it is that the Libs managed to have that guy as leader between the totally respectable, and thoughtful, Grimond and Steel. Wonder too, if publishing the goings on will do further damage to the LD's.
    As an activist during his leadership I'm left furiously thinking.

    They had a few 'interesting' people in the party at the time.
    Bessell comes to mind for one. Big Cyril as well, although I'm by no means convinced that he was as bad as currently painted.
    Incidentally Thorpe and Smith were by no means friendly to each other!
    Mostly, they hated each other. Steel wanted to shake Thorpe "warmly by the throat" when he appeared at the Liberal Conference in 1978.

  • Pulpstar said:

    Eagles, will you be voting for Clegg - I'll be happy to help him get re-elected, campaign out and about in Hallem. This has nothing to do whatsoever with the 4-9 at Betfair Sportsbook on him earlier ... *cough*

    Sunil and I have agreed to a deal.

    He's going to Tory in the marginal of Ilford North and if I vote Tory in Sheffield Hallam.

    I am prepared to trade my vote and gazump Sunil if any non Tory voter in Rochester and Strood votes Tory, and wants me to vote Labour (or anyone else) in Sheffield Hallam.
    Here's hoping you don't gazump me :)
    I plan not to, but I really hate Mark Reckless, and I want to see him defeated.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    The latest Opinium/Observer poll today puts Labour five percentage points ahead of the Conservatives, with fewer than four months to go until polling day. Labour is unchanged compared to a fortnight ago on 33%, while the Tories are down four points on 28%, Ukip up three points on 20%, the Lib Dems down one on 7% and the Greens up two on 6%.

    Is 20% UKIP's highest score with Opinium?
    Another outlier following the two 18%s in the week

    "Peak Kipper"
    Oh, you look nervous. Is it the ELBOWs? You wanna know how I got 'em?
    There are two more polls tonight and I guess they'll both be 11-12% for UKIP (normal) to compensate for yet another outlier, and all we will hear is "Peak Kipper" "look at the wikigraph" "No I don't want to bet" etc
    What are the terms

    Am I backing or laying

    Does 1-2 mean that if I bet £5 you give me £10

    etc ^_~
    "What do you mean you want £100 at 9/4 that Farage will appear in one of the debates? Cant you frame the bet more clearly??"
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,567
    Today's anecdotes: generally favourable in a politically mixed ward, with Labour supporters mostly in the "yeah I guess so, got to get the Tories out" camp rather than smothering me with passionate kisses. Met a couple of Greens who will vote Labour tactically, through gritted teeth. Failed to meet even one LibDem, although both councillors in the ward are LibDems.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Sean_F said:

    The latest Opinium/Observer poll today puts Labour five percentage points ahead of the Conservatives, with fewer than four months to go until polling day. Labour is unchanged compared to a fortnight ago on 33%, while the Tories are down four points on 28%, Ukip up three points on 20%, the Lib Dems down one on 7% and the Greens up two on 6%.

    Is 20% UKIP's highest score with Opinium?
    Twenty percent!

    Looks like Cameron is paying the price for running scared from Farage. People don't want to be led by a big girl's blouse.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    If there's only an eight point gap between UKIP and the Tories, how can the latter get invites to three debates while the former only get an invite to one?

  • Indigo said:

    The underlying situation remains the one I mentioned here back in 2008 - that in a globalised world economy the UK is competing against peoples which are as intelligent and educated as we are but who are willing to work harder for less money and under fewer restrictions.

    How then do we afford our higher living standards ?

    The answer is that we don't, we simply borrow £100bn plus each and every year to keep the pretence going.

    At some point that comes to a painful ending and the longer it is delayed the more painful it will be.

    Very much this. The response from politicians is largely a massed inserting of fingers in ears and loud incantations of "la-la-la", the good Dr Palmer being an honorable exception who has starting to discuss this on his blog I notice.
    I never knew that NP has his own blog, will have a look later.
    There is indeed some interesting thoughts:

    http://www.nickpalmer.org.uk/

    Thanks both - I try to keep it interesting, though from time to time I just do a partisan or local piece. As an exercise in masochism, I keep online everything I've ever written on the blog back to 2001 here:

    https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/Broxtoweinfo/conversations/messages

    and it's got a search facility so people can find me defending the Iraq war, speaking up for ID cards, chatting about being a Communist when young and so on. My theory is that you shouldn't uninvent your past views and by being open about them I get some credibility when I say "but now I think..."

    The "Tories for Palmer" group was entirely recruited from the blog (which has around 10% of households as subscribers, though who knows how many really read it).
    Frankly I doubt that making you past views more widely known will enhance your credibility. That's one of the problems with being monotonously wrongheaded from distant youth to current senility.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,384
    edited January 2015
    Socrates said:

    If there's only an eight point gap between UKIP and the Tories, how can the latter get invites to three debates while the former only get an invite to one?

    300+ MP's Vs 2 MP's?

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited January 2015
    GIN1138 said:

    Socrates said:

    If there's only an eight point gap between UKIP and the Tories, how can the latter get invites to three debates while the former only get an invite to one?

    300+ MP's Vs 2 MP's?

    The debates are about this election, not on one five years ago. That's the thing about the Tories, they always want to turn the clock back.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    Pulpstar said:

    Eagles, will you be voting for Clegg - I'll be happy to help him get re-elected, campaign out and about in Hallem. This has nothing to do whatsoever with the 4-9 at Betfair Sportsbook on him earlier ... *cough*

    Sunil and I have agreed to a deal.

    He's going to Tory in the marginal of Ilford North and if I vote Tory in Sheffield Hallam.

    I am prepared to trade my vote and gazump Sunil if any non Tory voter in Rochester and Strood votes Tory, and wants me to vote Labour (or anyone else) in Sheffield Hallam.
    Here's hoping you don't gazump me :)
    I plan not to, but I really hate Mark Reckless, and I want to see him defeated.
    May I ask why you hate him so much? I have no problem giving credit where it is due but Kelly Tolhurst is a very weak canditate and does not appear particularly confident when speaking in public.

    Prior to the defection I had not followed him that closely. However, I was particularly impressed with his recent speech on the foreign aid budget in the HoC. He quoted polling which suggested that a significant percentage of the electorate oppose increasing the foreign aid budget. Reckless was then heckled by numerous MPs across the political spectrum. I got the impression that it was a case of they know best and not their voters. We now have the sad situation where £1 billion was rushed through and could have been spent unwisely.

  • Socrates said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Socrates said:

    If there's only an eight point gap between UKIP and the Tories, how can the latter get invites to three debates while the former only get an invite to one?

    300+ MP's Vs 2 MP's?

    The debates are about this election, not on one five years ago. That's the thing about the Tories, they always want to turn the clock back.
    Bless, you're using one poll from a mid table pollster to base the whole debates on.

    How about using a poll from a top table pollster, that has the Tories polling three times as much as UKIP, with a 22% lead over UKIP?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    MP_SE said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Eagles, will you be voting for Clegg - I'll be happy to help him get re-elected, campaign out and about in Hallem. This has nothing to do whatsoever with the 4-9 at Betfair Sportsbook on him earlier ... *cough*

    Sunil and I have agreed to a deal.

    He's going to Tory in the marginal of Ilford North and if I vote Tory in Sheffield Hallam.

    I am prepared to trade my vote and gazump Sunil if any non Tory voter in Rochester and Strood votes Tory, and wants me to vote Labour (or anyone else) in Sheffield Hallam.
    Here's hoping you don't gazump me :)
    I plan not to, but I really hate Mark Reckless, and I want to see him defeated.
    May I ask why you hate him so much? I have no problem giving credit where it is due but Kelly Tolhurst is a very weak canditate and does not appear particularly confident when speaking in public.

    Prior to the defection I had not followed him that closely. However, I was particularly impressed with his recent speech on the foreign aid budget in the HoC. He quoted polling which suggested that a significant percentage of the electorate oppose increasing the foreign aid budget. Reckless was then heckled by numerous MPs across the political spectrum. I got the impression that it was a case of they know best and not their voters. We now have the sad situation where £1 billion was rushed through and could have been spent unwisely.

    Hate is such a strong word
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Socrates said:

    If there's only an eight point gap between UKIP and the Tories, how can the latter get invites to three debates while the former only get an invite to one?

    300+ MP's Vs 2 MP's?

    The debates are about this election, not on one five years ago. That's the thing about the Tories, they always want to turn the clock back.
    Bless, you're using one poll from a mid table pollster to base the whole debates on.

    How about using a poll from a top table pollster, that has the Tories polling three times as much as UKIP, with a 22% lead over UKIP?
    I wonder which polls David Cameron is looking at, for him to be so frightened of them?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    First time I have ever properly looked at the oft produced "wiki graph" showing UKIPs decline..

    Its at 15% from an all time high of 16% isn't it? Have I read it wrong?

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
  • MP_SE said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Eagles, will you be voting for Clegg - I'll be happy to help him get re-elected, campaign out and about in Hallem. This has nothing to do whatsoever with the 4-9 at Betfair Sportsbook on him earlier ... *cough*

    Sunil and I have agreed to a deal.

    He's going to Tory in the marginal of Ilford North and if I vote Tory in Sheffield Hallam.

    I am prepared to trade my vote and gazump Sunil if any non Tory voter in Rochester and Strood votes Tory, and wants me to vote Labour (or anyone else) in Sheffield Hallam.
    Here's hoping you don't gazump me :)
    I plan not to, but I really hate Mark Reckless, and I want to see him defeated.
    May I ask why you hate him so much? I have no problem giving credit where it is due but Kelly Tolhurst is a very weak canditate and does not appear particularly confident when speaking in public.

    Prior to the defection I had not followed him that closely. However, I was particularly impressed with his recent speech on the foreign aid budget in the HoC. He quoted polling which suggested that a significant percentage of the electorate oppose increasing the foreign aid budget. Reckless was then heckled by numerous MPs across the political spectrum. I got the impression that it was a case of they know best and not their voters. We now have the sad situation where £1 billion was rushed through and could have been spent unwisely.

    Saturday the 27th of September 2014 was the day Reckless defected around 2.40pm

    I was guest editing PB that day.

    I was in a grumpy mood, about 5 mins before Reckless defected, Everton equalised in injury time in the Merseyside derby.

    I wanted a quiet Saturday afternoon, as it was an important anniversary in our family. I had plans to go out around 3pm, which I had to delay (and eventually postpone) as I had cover the story (and any potential by-election)

    Mark Reckless defecting ruined my plans and got me into the books of badness.

    I agreed to move the plans to Wednesday afternoon, around 4.30pm.

    UKIP announced earlier on that day at 5pm there would be a press conference which people thought was another defection.
  • New Thread
  • Assuming, as currently appears likely, that Labour wins around 280-285 GE seats, they will be around 40-45 seats short of a majority, or around 35-40 seats after taking account of the non-voting NI MPs. Probably this can be trimmed by a further 2-3 seats by including the Plaid Cymru and Green MPs who are unlikely to oppose Labour in any confidence vote and the shortfall is therefore then reduced to approx 32-37 seats, pretty much exactly the number of seats the SNP are expected to win.
    So that would appear to be Miliband's one shop solution, coalition wise, albeit through gritted teeth on both sides, especially were the LibDems to win only around 25 seats or fewer which might leave him with an uncomfortable 10 seat shortfall or thereabouts, were he to consider instead linking up with the Yellows.
    I feel very much at ease therefore with my 25/1 bet with Ladbrokes on a Labour/SNP coalition, now on offer at 10/1.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    tlg86 said:


    Anyway, do you expect the make up of the NFL QBs to change over the next 10 to 20 years? So as the era of Brady, Manning, Brees, Rodgers, etc comes to an end gradually black QBs will come to dominate the NFL?

    I don't know if they will dominate but the numbers will definitely keep rising. It's a kind of virtuous circle - young black kids will see that they can be successful in the NFL if they aim to be a quarter back (rather than what happened a decade or two ago which would be they would be converted even if they got drafted out of college as a QB) and will try for the role - that increases the numbers and sport comes down to a numbers game - given quality coaching the larger the population the larger the chance of exceptional candidates presenting themselves.

    And who knows, maybe some pioneering white kids will lead a break through in cornerbacks and force their way into contention.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    tlg86 said:




    I don't follow it but I think a far larger proportion of QBs are black in the college game. But running/read option is a far larger part of the QB's game in college football.

    This might be an over-simplification of the situation, but the NFL is on another/very different level to college football. Robert Griffin III was a sensation in his first season at the Redskins and they implemented a read-option approach to the game successfully. I know he's had injuries (a downside to the running QB's game by the way), but I think opposition defensive coordinators have found him out and have come up with ways of neutralizing his game.

    I'm not saying that there hasn't been racism towards potential black QBs and I'm sure the proportion of QBs that are black is going up. But it still seems to me that the very best QBs in the NFL are usually white. And that's just the way it is.

    It's about 1/3rd black QBs in top college football and around 1/4 in the NFL.

    QB was one of the last positions to be desegregated. That attitudinal stigma takes a time to clear - there was time when it was thought blacks weren't clever enough to fly fighter planes. That was bollocks.
    Your dividing humanity into black and white disgusts me. I imagine in your disgusting Scots Nationalist / Socialist world view Obama ( " white " mother and " black " father ) is defined as black. Stick your divisive drivel up Fat Eck's bog feeder.
    That's a weird and out of the blue comment and strange to fixate on me out of the people discussing this on the thread.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    The nice thing if Syriza should win will be that there will be 3 months of financial chaos in the markets - voters will get a salutary lesson on what will happen if Labour gain power.
This discussion has been closed.