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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Miliband needs to avoid being caught in a Greek pincer
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Miliband needs to avoid being caught in a Greek pincer
Every Labour government ends up running out of money, though not all go to the trouble of leaving a note to their successor to say so. That they do so is not exactly a feature of left-of-centre politics but it’s not far off:
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What had suddenly gone so wrong that Circle could no longer make ends meet, and was placed in special measures by the Care Quality Commission following a blistering inspection report?
The answer, it would appear, is that Hinchingbrooke may have fallen prey to a ruthlessly orchestrated and deeply disturbing Left-wing campaign.......
Most incredibly, a paediatrician known to have briefed the inspectors while they were visiting Hinchingbrooke turns out to be the Labour Party’s local candidate in the forthcoming General Election!
We already knew of Ed Miliband’s disgraceful intention to ‘weaponise’ the NHS. If the treatment of Circle is anything to go by, the Tories – and anybody else who wishes to bring private sector innovation to the inefficient health service – better be ready for a very dirty fight indeed.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2914152/DAILY-MAIL-COMMENT-Stitch-start-dirty-fight-NHS.html
Labour would raise taxes on people like me (net):
OA: +35
Lab: -7
For perspective Con is +21 OA
Spending cuts have gone too far (vs OA 47)
Con: -31
Lab: +31
LibD: +1
UKIP: -1
Net, Labour voters overwhelmingly think spending cuts have gone too far, but don't think that they will face the tax rises to pay for their reversal.
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/10nth9jzk9/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-090115.pdf
That will be Labour's problem.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-30859937
which would doubtless be fisked (do people still say that?) if Ed Miliband made the same call, but more importantly, Giles Coren has eaten the best steak ever. Perhaps Times readers can report back on whether Coren agrees with SeanT of this parish that the world's best steak is from Dinner by Heston.
Upgrading our internet infrastructure would be a more rapid and more certain payoff, except that most of it belong to private companies that the country could not afford to nationalise even if it wanted to. Its worth noting that Dave (and probably Ed's) idiotic encryption ban plans would do more damage to our IT infrastructure in one law than almost any amount of infrastructure upgrade.
If you mean investing in businesses, as I might have mentioned, we don't have any money, so it would be borrowing money to invest in companies, back to the worst excesses of Old Labour, its about the government feeling itself capable of predicting which businesses will succeed and which will fail, something governments of all colours have a pretty piss-poor record on. If (as is likely) the business doesn't succeed it would be just another loss to record against the public exchequer, I can see the lenders tiring of that game quite fast and the interest rates the UK having to pay rapidly heading upwards, which giving the amount of money we are currently paying interest on, wouldn't be good.
Underlying all this, and in my view far more important is our horrific productivity compared even to our European partners, never mind our global competitors.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/oct/24/uk-economic-growth-slows
Compared to inheritance from Labour; compared to the United States. Of course, German-imposed austerity in the Eurozone killed growth there, and also dished George Osborne's hopes of European exports pulling us clear.
How do voters rate the last 3 Chancellors?
Net 'did well' as Chancellor:
Osborne: -7
Darling: -19
Brown: -18
Sunday's YouGov......
What happens if Syriza are, somehow, seen to be doing quite well in government when 7th May rolls around? Not saying this will happen but perhaps they'll still be in their honeymoon period, or they'll manage to screw better terms out of Germany or maybe they'll just get lucky. Would that help Ed? Probably not as Balls will still want to appear responsible.
Confidence in UK govt to keep people safe from terrorist attack: (net):
Con: +70
Lab: +14
LibD: +53
UKIP: -23
Getting a GP appointment - when you wanted to (net):
Con: +28
Lab: +12
LibD: +19
UKIP: -13
It might also be because they tell Germany to get stuffed, bring back the Drachma, and as it devalues by 30% or so the Greek economy starts to take off again... The Commission's worst nightmare would be Greece doing well outside the Euro, lots of countries looking to follow suit if it does.
I am sure RCS1000 is right, it will get fudged, their debt will get extended. I would expect after some initial euphoria people start to notice that not much has changed, the Greek economy will continue to bounce along the bottom and Syriza will get thrown out soon for not doing what they said they will do.
How do voters rate the last 3 Chancellors?
Net 'did well' as Chancellor:
Osborne: -7
Darling: -19
Brown: -18
Sunday's YouGov......
The growth inheritance.
http://www.cqc.org.uk/location/RQQ31
But this excerpt gives a flavour "Do not attempt cardio-pulmonary resuscitation' (DNA CPR) forms were completed, but a high percentage had not been appropriately signed by a consultant. In many instances, we found that DNA CPR decisions had not been discussed with the patient or their representatives. Assessments had not been completed when the reason given for not discussing decisions with patients was recorded as the patient lacking capacity. Documentation was found to be poor throughout the service. Ward staff training in end of life care was lacking, and no one we spoke to on the wards had advanced communication training, however the palliative care team did have this training."
Sounds pretty serious to me and not a matter that can be spun either way. DNR-CPR orders are a fundamental part of consent and record keeping.
I was involved to a degree in last years CQC visit to my own NHS Trust. We were briefed by our management on what to expect, but the management specifically instructed us to be honest and open and to show the inspectors everything of interest. I thought this showed a lot of integrity by our management team.
Our report is here: http://www.cqc.org.uk/provider/RWE
So the -0.3% in 2008 and -4.3% in 2009, that growth ?
Money is obviously going to be tight, but there is potential to follow an agenda that brings down the cost of the welfare state without cuts. Housing would be a good example with liberalising of planning laws giving builders permission to build on greenfield and green belt sites, with social housing schools and surgeries built under section 106 provision. This would cost the taxpayer very little, but would bring down the housing benefit bill significantly by cutting the cost of housing.
Surely you are advocating social cleansing...
Or is that only when Tories propose it?
In the quote I gave patients were being listed as "Do not resuscitate" without it being discussed with them or documented by their doctors. That is not something that is slanted but rather a simple matter of fact proven by lack of record keeping.
If you read the report on Childrens A/E, the criticism was of lack of paediatric trained nurse cover, lack of separate cubicles etc. There was also a much higher rate of patients giving up and going elsewhere rather than waiting. Are you suggesting this was just spin by the Labour PPC? If it were then it would have been easy for Circle to dispute. Instead they cut and run.
The smear is not by the inspection team, it is by the Daily Mail.
The 50% tax is good politics, but will make little or nothing, and if it looks like it will be around for a while might even cause a nett loss as people adjust their financial planning or relocate abroad.
The real point is these are all footling amounts, if Labour wants to not have to do so much austerity it needs to find tens of billions of pounds of tax rises, and do it without causing the sort of unintended consequences that tank the economy or drive business overseas. If they try it and screw it up, their economic model is toast.
There was a global recession, after which recovery started under Labour and was choked off by George Osborne.
My point was not particularly advocate it as a policy, but to point out that the Government has many levers other than spending.
But I think you are naive if you think people who are not paying for their housing will move without compulsion (why should they?). And the coalition faced massive criticism for doing something similar with their housing benefit caps
My point is about double standards, not housing policy.
I think it will be an issue around year 2 of government (just as the Tories will have an interesting time if they win and those tax cuts prove elusive), but doubt if most voters will follow Greek affairs closely or consider there's a parallel whether Syriza do well or not.
Choking growth off ? Compared to what ?
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/oct/24/uk-economic-growth-slows
Compared to inheritance from Labour;The 'I'm sorry there's no money left' inheritance?
How do voters rate the last 3 Chancellors?
Net 'did well' as Chancellor:
Osborne: -7
Darling: -19
Brown: -18
Sunday's YouGov......
The growth inheritance.
So the -0.3% in 2008 and -4.3% in 2009, that growth ?
Indigo, you are wasting your time.
DJ's posts this morning alone show why Labour remains unfit to govern, they still have not learnt from or accepted their failures and as such would just do the same thing over again. The 2010 position of growth was bought very expensively but unsustainable as Labour well knew.
It did give them something to chant for the next 5 years though. That along with tax cuts for millionaires after seeing their 50% tax level ( installed a few days before they left office) reduced yet still higher than Labours entire government since 1997, payments to EU against wishes of Parliament after the election but before Brown slithered out of office and claims of privatising the NHS when only a Labour minister has done so etc etc etc. All carefully planned minefields to be exploited and to further complicate the difficulties of anyone that followed. To Labour and the unions it's all about power more than anything else(like us) I did appreciate Brown saving us money by taking a 25% pay cut to the PM's salary right at the point he left No 10 after 3 years on the higher rate.
Don't ever forget the economy was in dire trouble as far back as 2003, warnings were already flooding in.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/11352350/Sale-of-new-pensioner-bonds-hugely-successful-says-George-Osborne.html
That NHS story looks highly dubious at first glance.
In F1 news: this is reported as a Honda victory, but it seems like they're still at a hefty disadvantage over the course of the season:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/30860212
They can develop their engine in-season, but not as much as everyone else (how much is currently unclear).
On-topic: good article, Mr. Herdson. I've thought for a while that the Greek result could have a significant impact here. Of course, they may well go (as other, better informed chaps here have suggested) for extend and pretend and it'll be surprisingly easy. We'll see.
If you have social housing sitting on expensive inner city land with people not wanting to move out, presumably there could be a process of building new new houses on the edge of town, condemning the city houses and selling off the land to developers, relocating the tenants to the new houses and using the money raised to pay for more houses on the edge of town, the difference in land prices should pay for the new houses, and probably more new houses than the old houses replaced.
Maybe not the most popular policy going, but those tenants aren't going to vote Tory anyway.
Can Labour still spend more. Well, it's a big envelope and the priorities will change. For example, most cuts have gone to local govt, but the funding formula was changed in 2010 so that areas of greater deprivation and social need have had and continue to have greater cuts. Knock on effect has been pressure on NHS because of cuts to social care etc. Hilary Benn confirmed this will be changed back. Same envelope- different priorities.
And are we doing well as an economy? I would suggest anyone who thinks that growing inequality and that 2/3 of new jobs are very low paid, zero hour contracts, that 9/10 of new businesses are self employed contractors and that the ONS predicts FALLING tax receipts should watch 'the super rich and you' on BBC iplayer. Inequality is the greatest challenge and it makes us do worse on every level (worst infant mortality in Europe - to the economy, as the IMF confirmed). Ed Miliband recognises this. The Tories font even acknowledge it.
If more is to be spent on the NHS, social care and local government, where will the cuts come?
Growing inequality is a symptom of globalisation, to which there appears no easy answer. Protectionism damages trade, making us poorer. Ramping up the minimum wage would decrease employment, hiking taxes prohibitively on the rich would drive them away (cf France).
Maybe tax breaks for firms that adopt a John Lewis approach would work.
Also, zero hour contracts aren't evil as a whole. Some are bad, but not all of them.
Inequality is not the greatest challenge. Fighting poverty is. A street full of paupers is very equal. A street where everyone can afford essentials but two of the homes are occupied by millionaires is very unequal. I know which street I would prefer.
Ed Miliband is a daft sod.
I am off to Haydock for some free hospitality paid for by my bookie presumably out of my losings!
Where David is right is that the majority of the population have no desire to do that or learn the lessons of our own failure. To that extent they are like the Syrzia voters who think that democracy means the right to vote to spend non existent money. In the real world how much there is to spend is not a matter of democratic choice expect in the very short term. But the time parameters of our politicians is now 16 weeks and falling. Who really cares what happens after that ?
Syriza?
Isn't that something to do with Syria?
Sorry, but politics in a country most know only from package holidays is completely unknown to about 95% of the population (99% of those I talk to).
And even the biggest shocks to the EU system that could result will be put down to left overs from the recession and nothing directly to do with the British Government from 2015 onwards.
I enjoy watching 'Pointless' on teatime TV. Very few of the contestants know anything about British politics, and only the odd smart arse knows the first thing about European politics.
Ed's love-in with Hollande went completely under the radar too.
The areas outside London seeming the fastest growth are where the state jobs have been cut, clearing the way for private enterprise to flourish. Councils are a remaining impediment - further cuts in non essential payroll will allow a second wave of growth. Bonus is reducing the future liabilities from fat cat pensions.
A couple of assumptions: a default is defined as either a change to debt terms (maturity or interest rate), or missing an interest or principal repayment.
And, when Venezuela defaults (because its tax base and economy are too dependent on oil, and all its debts are in US Dollars), will there be contagion to other "commodity" dependent Latin American countries, where the vast bulk of debts are US Dollar denominated - Ecuador, Mexico, and (most scarily) Brazil?
"We despair when Ofsted discovers another six private Islamic schools (in east London this time) where the sexes are segregated, children are taught only about sharia law and “not prepared for life in modern Britain”.
Breathtaking ignorance by the Telegraph writer of many religious schools. I suggest she visits the Hasidic schools of Hendon where not only iare the sexes segregated but they are not even allowed to be taught in the same building. As for not 'preparing them for life in modern Britain' the schools would empty if they promised to prepare their pupils for life in modern Britain'!
DJ's posts this morning alone show why Labour remains unfit to govern, they still have not learnt from or accepted their failures and as such would just do the same thing over again.
I confess this is my main worry for PM Ed - I am sure that he is a competent man, and practical constraints will prevent he and his team from launching ideas which would be a total disaster as some seem to fear, in fact within the policy of tweaking what is being done as I suspect it will be, it could be an improvement (or at least the natural improvement over time will begin to feel more apparent in any case). But given Labour seem to be heading for a win on the basis that the Tories and LDs have imploded (the Tories with their vote share not being as terrible, but their divisions and the rise of UKIP undermining them from winning seats they need to win and defending others they need to hold), Labour, headed by figures with a long history at the heart of the last government as much as they seem to like to forget that, will waltz back in after only 5 years and without having been forced into any kind of genuine self reflection. It's been a paint job and sticking to the basest and laziest attacks as I see it.
It's worked I think, I believe they will win most seats and possibly a small majority, but they could have won far more easily and actually been bolder these past five years, instead of staying in the comfort zone and relying on the irrationality of the 'Tories eat babies' section of voters and the Tories' own weaknesses to see them over the line.
Ed M seems a canny sort though, so I'm hoping he proves to be more creative than his tactics would suggest.
Mr. 1000, that's a very interesting point. I had no idea Brazil would be, potentially, in the firing line if that happened.
Venezuela will go first. The mewling eunuchs of Brussels are desperate for their fantasy of Euroland's utopia to struggle on.
The reason the population hasn't learned is because we do such a good job of insulating them from the consequences, we have so many absurdly generous safe nets that increasing numbers of people see being on benefit as a lifestyle choice.
If being on benefit is being seen as a realistic lifestyle choice then it means for a lot of people it much be approach the same sort of living standard they would get when employed. It therefore follows that if as a result of electing a group of idiots into government that crash the economy into the wall, a lot of people take in effect a fairly modest drop in their living standards for a while until they next job comes along. Mostly they stay in the same house, their children stay at the same school, everyone get the same health care, they have to trim back on foreign holidays and maybe cancel buying a new TV or updating the car that year. Yes there are a few cases where the effects the pretty unpleasant, but they are the tiny minority, and insignificant in voting terms.
So you get a load more people and fewer facilities... it is the route to madness
The one hospital left, Queens, has been in special measures, and recently my mates wife gave birth there while they were delivering babies in the toilets because overcrowding meant there was no room in the maternity ward
Still, at least it makes zones 1&2 look nice on the telly for overseas buyers... while we get the countries most expensive third world hospital
"Jas Athwal, leader of the Redbridge Labour party, described the news as an “absolute shock”.
He added: “Queen’s was built for 300,000 people in mind but now it has to cope with 800,000 - it is not right. "
http://www.ilfordrecorder.co.uk/news/health/two_women_turned_away_from_queen_s_hospital_maternity_department_after_it_closes_for_four_hours_1_3630975
Labour voters overwhelmingly think the cuts have gone to far, and uniquely think tax rises won't fall on them.
Everyone else expects to have to pay.......
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b04yn2yq/the-superrich-and-us-episode-2
Then comment on inequality. Or on how easy it is for those at the bottom.
"Letting loose the lunatics wasn't the greatest of ideas
Giving them plans and money to squander
Should have been the worst of our fears
The dream life luxury living was a pleasant number 10 whim
But somewhere down the line of production
They left out human beings
They were gonna build communities
It was going to be pie in the sky
But the piss stench hallways and broken down lifts
Say the planners dream went wrong
If people were made to live in boxes
God would have given them string
To tie around their selves at bed time
And stop their dreams falling through the ceiling
And the public school boy computers
Keep spewing out our future
The house in the country designs the 14th floor
Old Mrs. Smith don't get out much more
Coitus interrupts 'cause of next doors rows
Your washing gets nicked when the lights go out
Baby's scream in the nightmare throng
But planners just get embarrassed when their plans go wrong!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMXNV4cKjK4
Pay them an exorbitant amount of money on a regular basis and they give you a bit of kickback now and then to keep you sweet
Use www.raceclear.co.uk to beat them
Have you read the report that I linked to? Do you think it acceptable that patients were listed as Do not Resucitate without this being discussed with the patient or being documented by the medical staff? Time was that the Daily Mail would have been outraged by that, now it is outraged that the CQC exposed it!
http://m.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/11730885.Protests_over_prophet_picture/?ref=mr
I notice his lack of protest or comment over Charlie Hebdo when it was happening.
Missed it yesterday; reading it today.
Social Cleansing from East London to the outskirts has been going on for years and is one of the main reasons UKIP are favourites in Thurrock
I noted that you chose to ignore the fact that Labours economy was in serious trouble back as far as 2003 despite numerous warnings they continued.
It's also odd that people give no credit to the coalition on anything despite 24 months of solid improvements it are happy to champion some supposed plastic growth massaged by Labour . Even Christine Legarde of the IMF States this is a model economy, they wish. All economies were like this and we are an example to the world. On the other hand since 2003 IMF and others were warning Labour of the dangers of what they were doing finally withe statement after 13 years of Labour
"The UK is the least well prepared country to withstand the oncoming financial problems"
There was in effect "no money left"
Let's not hear anything more about this coalitions competence before looking at the last 13 years of Labour.
I should have gone on to say that you're right about the Labour mantra that spending is good, but when it goes wrong, it's always blamed on someone else. "The gnomes of Zurich" "it began in America" or the rich not paying their fair share of taxes.
When even Conservative politicians ignore the difference between debt and deficit, you can't expect a nuanced debate.
A good article for PB, but politics is the art of image, of superficiality.
Ed fails on both image and reality but the Labour brand is caring, so he will still try to excuse any failure as someone else's fault (and that's not restricted just to Labour).
In a discussion this week (Radio5L), someone complained that the fall in fuel prices was nothing to do with the government and therefore they shouldn't get any credit. The BBC presenter agreed. But what happens when fuel prices rise? So perhaps politicians are right to avoid complicated and accurate summaries.
http://www.sheffieldtelegraph.co.uk/news/local/ed-miliband-admits-rotherham-child-abuse-victims-were-terribly-let-down-by-labour-representatives-1-7055963
I have no doubt he declared his political ambitions to the CQC.
Yes I did read the report - while some of it was objective (like the poor DNR processes) other parts were subjective - lets see what emerges with time.
I am sure we are all concerned about the patients.
The Labour PC tweeted his concern about the staff.......
You said that between gritted teeth.
Over one million new jobs created and Labour said yeah but they are part time, temporary contracts and zero hour contracts (as introduced by Labour of course) Theses are not real jobs they said.... Then someone looked and found 95% were full time and not as Labour stated or scaremongers do. That's before we see the falls in youth unemployment.
Circle could have disputed its accuracy if they wanted, but they did not do so. They walked away, leaving the NHS to pick up the pieces. Something that is not unusual with privatised services.
Indeed if you look at the CQC report on Leicester one of the main foci of criticism was the poor portering and catering provided by the private company with the contract. There is a theme emerging...
Spiked has a good editorial on how the accusation of Islamophobia has been used to suppress criticism of the barbaric practices of traditional Islam:
http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/je-suis-charlie-then-challenge-the-islamophobia-industry/16455#.VLooIMlFDqA
"Galloway marching to protest defamation of his prophet"
I applaud his drawing attention the the hypocricy and double standards in the Charlie Hebdo affair. Britain marching arm in arm with the Saudis who everyone with any knowledge of the region knows is the most most mysoginystic country on the planet. What's more had these cartoons appeared as fliers in Riyadh the cartoonist would amost certainly have been publically executed.
This morning Indigo linked to an article about te pernicious effects of Islam in the UK castigating segregated classrooms found in six east London schools. Well the fastest growing religious sect is the Hasidim who are not permitted any contact with the opposite sex let alone to share a classroom with them. What's more all their marriages are 'arranged'. So what?
It's nothing short of blind prejudice which owes more to the 'foreignness' of most Muslims rather than their religious practices and I applaud Galloway for pointing it out.
Consumers are being denied energy price cuts of as much as £130 a year because of Ed Miliband’s price freeze proposal, experts have claimed.
Energy companies are failing to pass on the full falls in wholesale prices because they are afraid they will not be able to cover their costs if prices rise again under a Labour Government, industry analysts say.
Companies should be able to afford to cut prices by "a double-figures percentage", Ann Robinson of price comparison site uswitch said, with average gas and electricity bills currently about £1,300 a year.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/energy/11351710/Labour-energy-price-freeze-preventing-130-bill-cuts.html
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/05/ed-balls-labour-refuses-commit-ending-squeeze-public-sector-pay
So nul points for accuracy Indigo!
I agree Roger, those Hasidim want to force us to do the same, under penalty of death, don't they? Do what we demand or die.Entirely reasonable in the circumstances.
I have respect for religious observance. I don't have respect for forced subservience. Can you not see the difference?
“We believe the report was unbalanced and does not reflect the hospital.”
http://www.huntspost.co.uk/news/update_hinchingbrooke_hospital_in_huntingdon_to_challenge_damning_cqc_report_1_3915729
Dont you think we should be even a little upset about being the FGM capital of Europe, to the extent that little girls are being brought here in a kind of reverse health tourism to have it done to them. Or is the rights of that minority not to be offended and interfered with by our laws more important. Funnily enough when asked with an FoI what the total arrest numbers were the Met Police rejected the request on the basis that is was too expensive to find out! But the number of arrests is a small handful and the number of prosecutions would have been even easier to count, since its zero.
A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury. After that, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits with the result the democracy collapses because of the loose fiscal policy ensuing.
In Leicester Interserve (the outsourced company) instantly wanted to force all the portering and catering staff onto Zero hours contracts, a good number handed in their notice. Real dedication to quality there...
It'll be 'GOTV' next.......
People are buying their council flat and selling it for upto nearly a million pond profit the next day.. or renting it for 4 times the council rate
Hmm I wonder if criminals/dodgy companies are circling round these council tenents like vultures???
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-30541014
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2905827/The-tenants-benefits-buying-council-house-one-five-applicants-receive-handouts.html