politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov’s UKIP share falls to lowest level since October – and this is with the party being prompted
On UKIP's lowish numbers we need to see whether this is supported by other polling – firms particularly the non online ones — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2015
I think that is right. Insurgent parties need to be getting media attention which UKIP haven't had for some time. Even Farage's promise to go "on the wagon" in January has hardly been noticed.
@Indigo is absolutely right that Brent and WTI are not exactly the same. However, that is not the main reason for the differential.
Over the past 20 years, sometimes Brent has traded at a premium, sometimes WTI. At one point in - I think - 2012, WTI was at a $20 discount to Brent.
The current differential is because the Gulf Coast refinineries are set up to process Mayan Crude, which is heavy (and IIRC quite sour) oil, and which typically trades at about an $8 discount to Brent (because only refineries setup to handle Mayan buy it).
A US refiner therefore has the choice of buying Mayan crude or American crude - and WTI therefore trades roughly half way between Mayan crude and Brent.
I think that is right. Insurgent parties need to be getting media attention which UKIP haven't had for some time. Even Farage's promise to go "on the wagon" in January has hardly been noticed.
The Greek election is in two weeks and the following horse trading and potential fallout and the media will have got bored with the NHS non-crisis, so I expect the media narrative will swing back to the EU and UKIP will get a few more days in the sun, before the narrative moves on again.
With Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems renewing their attacks on each other I fear that the main NOTA party, UKIP, will gain from it, but it may take a few days for that effect to benefit UKIP.
I think that is right. Insurgent parties need to be getting media attention which UKIP haven't had for some time. Even Farage's promise to go "on the wagon" in January has hardly been noticed.
The Greek election is in two weeks and the following horse trading and potential fallout and the media will have got bored with the NHS non-crisis, so I expect the media narrative will swing back to the EU and UKIP will get a few more days in the sun, before the narrative moves on again.
I would expect the Conservatives to gain from any trouble in Greece.
Mr S is inclined to believe this is a piss-take, lest it be clear the Guardian completely disappeared up its own bottom. Apparently enjoying HP Sauce basically makes you some sort of quasi-racist, Ukip-voting, little-England philistine
I think that is right. Insurgent parties need to be getting media attention which UKIP haven't had for some time. Even Farage's promise to go "on the wagon" in January has hardly been noticed.
The Greek election is in two weeks and the following horse trading and potential fallout and the media will have got bored with the NHS non-crisis, so I expect the media narrative will swing back to the EU and UKIP will get a few more days in the sun, before the narrative moves on again.
I would expect the Conservatives to gain from any trouble in Greece.
Maybe, if it starts to look like its going to cost the UK a lot of money, Dave "couldn't countenance leaving the EU" Cameron is going to find himself short on friends, and Ed "I will never take the UK out of the EU" Miliband won't be much more popular.
Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, did not ask to meet Ed Miliband during her visit to Britain, the Foreign Office has said.
Mr Miliband, the labour leader, complained that he had not been told about the visit and was said by aides to be "irritated" by the oversight.
However, the Foreign Office said that Mrs Merkel did not request to see Mr Miliband during her six hour visit to Britain on Wednesday. It was also pointed out that details of Mrs Merkel's visit appeared in newspapers 10 days ago
Sean. Is your story of a chat with one person shyly going to vote UKIP as "statistically significant" as the chat I had with my brother last night , who really doesn't like Dave and hasn't all thro this Parliament but is going to vote Tory because he thinks Ed Miliband would be a disaster for the Country?
Sean. Is your story of a chat with one person shyly going to vote UKIP as "statistically significant" as the chat I had with my brother last night , who really doesn't like Dave and hasn't all thro this Parliament but is going to vote Tory because he thinks Ed Miliband would be a disaster for the Country?
Depends if your brother has voted Tory all his life, or is a LD that has decided to vote Tory because of Ed really. The point SeanT was making was that a people in no way natural Kippers were looking at Farages Army because they despaired of the main parties. I'm a Tory, and I despair of Dave - I know he is more popular than the party, but thats because he's a liberal, and voters still think the magic money tree exists.
Sean. Is your story of a chat with one person shyly going to vote UKIP as "statistically significant" as the chat I had with my brother last night , who really doesn't like Dave and hasn't all thro this Parliament but is going to vote Tory because he thinks Ed Miliband would be a disaster for the Country?
Depends if your brother has voted Tory all his life, or is a LD that has decided to vote Tory because of Ed really. The point SeanT was making was that a people in no way natural Kippers were looking at Farages Army because they despaired of the main parties. I'm a Tory, and I despair of Dave - I know he is more popular than the party, but thats because he's a liberal, and voters still think the magic money tree exists.
Sean. Is your story of a chat with one person shyly going to vote UKIP as "statistically significant" as the chat I had with my brother last night , who really doesn't like Dave and hasn't all thro this Parliament but is going to vote Tory because he thinks Ed Miliband would be a disaster for the Country?
TBF, @SeanT wasn't claiming it was statistical significant.
He thought he had identified a new group - LibDem --> UKIP switchers. I recall they've been somewhat discussed on here (probably reflecting the NOTA element of LD votes), but it's always nice to have anecedotal description of a member of this group
Sean. Is your story of a chat with one person shyly going to vote UKIP as "statistically significant" as the chat I had with my brother last night , who really doesn't like Dave and hasn't all thro this Parliament but is going to vote Tory because he thinks Ed Miliband would be a disaster for the Country?
Depends if your brother has voted Tory all his life, or is a LD that has decided to vote Tory because of Ed really. The point SeanT was making was that a people in no way natural Kippers were looking at Farages Army because they despaired of the main parties. I'm a Tory, and I despair of Dave - I know he is more popular than the party, but thats because he's a liberal, and voters still think the magic money tree exists.
Bet you like him more than my mother does!
Something slightly off about sitting in the sun in Socal listening to someone rip Cameron to pieces...
I know more LibDem -> UKIP switchers than any other group (of switchers, obv). They all say pretty much the same thing "the other parties are all the same, it's time we tried someone new, and these guys really are listening to what people think".
That being said, if you'd asked them five years ago why they were voting LibDem, they would have said "the other parties are all the same, it's time we tried someone new, and these guys really are listening to what people think".
“Are the purples starting to fade as we get closer?”
I suspect we are just seeing a ‘post defection’ drop in support, due to lack of recent media exposure – the problem for UKIP and minor parties’ especially, is the tendency to be crowded out of the spot-light, as general election campaigns kick off.
That being said, if you'd asked them five years ago why they were voting LibDem, they would have said "the other parties are all the same, it's time we tried someone new, and these guys really are listening to what people think".
I think that's fair enough. Some people cast endless around looking for politicians that give a damn, individually they might care, as a collective group, they dont. Once you get a small number of politicians together in parliament it suddenly becomes about party discipline and messaging (ie. getting re-elected), rather then representing the voters.
Most voters can hear it in the language used by many senior politicians all the time. Everything is spoken of in terms of party positioning, rather than giving the electorate policies they approve of. There are too many wheezes and cunning plans, and not enough sensible policy. And there are way, way too many lies, and especially stupid obvious lies. Lets not even get started on the sanctimony and the cant.
People also hear populism being spoken of as it its a dirty word, "populism: a member or adherent of a political party seeking to represent the interests of ordinary people." Most voters are not going to see much wrong with seeking to represent the interest of ordinary people, rather than the elite or special interests.
That being said, if you'd asked them five years ago why they were voting LibDem, they would have said "the other parties are all the same, it's time we tried someone new, and these guys really are listening to what people think".
I think that's fair enough. Some people cast endless around looking for politicians that give a damn, individually they might care, as a collective group, they dont. Once you get a small number of politicians together in parliament it suddenly becomes about party discipline and messaging (ie. getting re-elected), rather then representing the voters.
Most voters can hear it in the language used by many senior politicians all the time. Everything is spoken of in terms of party positioning, rather than giving the electorate policies they approve of. There are too many wheezes and cunning plans, and not enough sensible policy. And there are way, way too many lies, and especially stupid obvious lies. Lets not even get started on the sanctimony and the cant.
People also hear populism being spoken of as it its a dirty word, "populism: a member or adherent of a political party seeking to represent the interests of ordinary people." Most voters are not going to see much wrong with seeking to represent the interest of ordinary people, rather than the elite or special interests.
Citizens have right to be ignorant... Do you give Brandy to an alcoholic?
Some people cast endless around looking for politicians that give a damn, individually they might care, as a collective group, they dont. Once you get a small number of politicians together in parliament it suddenly becomes about party discipline and messaging, rather then representing the voters.
Most voters can hear it in the language used by many senior politicians all the time. Everything is spoken of in terms of party positioning, rather than giving the electorate policies they approve of. There are too many wheezes and cunning plans, and not enough sensible policy. And there are way, way too many lies, and especially stupid obvious lies. Lets not even get started on the sanctimony and the cant.
People also hear populism being spoken of as it its a dirty word, "populism: a member or adherent of a political party seeking to represent the interests of ordinary people." Most voters are not going to see much wrong with seeking to represent the interest of ordinary people, rather than the elite or special interests.
I think that's a little harsh. The big problem is one that you've identified in the past: the share of the world's resources that is going to be consumed by traditional developed economies like ours is in decline. China and India and Indonesia and Malaysia are climbing the wealth curve, just as Taiwan and South Korea and Japan did before. The difference is that those countries had relatively small populations, while the new Asian tigers have enormous ones.
The relative decline in importance of the traditional west, and the fact that someone in Bangalore or Bratislava can probably do your job for less money (which, of course, has been to the benefit of the owners of capital) are not problems that are easily solved. And we all want the benefits of globalisation - oooh... new iPhone! - while being disgusted that the politicians have not insulated us from its costs.
Politicians have less control over events than people believe. And that's why all insurgent movements - when they win power in one way or another - disappoint. (See the LibDems and Barack Obama.)
There are a fair number of UKIP/Con floating voters. Proposals like taxing the South East to pay for Scottish health care help to push them back into the Conservative camp.
Any decisive move in the polls from either of the major parties with just 4 months to go might well prove decisive. I can't remember any earlier GE where there has been such a unanimous clamour that a hung Parliament is virtually certain. With both Labour and Conservative available at around 5/1 against them achieving an overall majority, I'm watching for any clear trend emerging with a view to betting against the herd.
Regarding populism: what populism usually means is introducing measures that are very good in short run, but have appalling long-term costs.
When French politicians said (and I'm only paraphrasing a little here) "rapacious capitalists hire and fire at will, without thinking of the families they destroy, we must introduce worker protection legislation to stop profitable companies letting go of workers" then it was a clear case of populism. But it caused horrendous long-term unemployment.
When the British government repeatedly stepped in to stop British firms from going bust in the 1970s, that was decidedly populist too. The opinion polls were enormously in favour of the government bailing out these firms, and saving people's jobs. But the longer-term costs were - again - horrendous.
I have no doubt that a populist government would - like populist South American governments over much of the last half century - use trade barriers to protect British industry and jobs - and I can imagine the public cheering such a move. But anyone who thinks that trade barriers bring prosperity is ignorant of all economic history.
Populism is great for winning votes. But most decisions are hard and involve trade-offs. Those who peddle simple solutions for complicated problems are either stupid, deluded or outright liars.
One poll guys and with the greatest respect its a Yougov. Its a bit of a shaky foundation on which to build such an edifice.
UKIP do represent frustration, disappointment and despair with the conventional parties. Mostly, this is because of the reasons that Robert sets out. Everything seems so simple from outside and the complexities and limitations of power are perceived as evidence of weakness or hypocrisy rather than reality.
At the moment the country is facing a particularly frustrating time. We are up to our eyes in debt; we need to cut spending; we have already increased taxes and will probably need to do so again; we are running an horrific trade deficit; our standard of living is falling in real terms and there are real limitations on what our politicians can do about all this.
It is so much easier to blame their moral failings than to accept the cold reality that we are in a dreadful mess. It is so much easier to vote for someone offering simplistic solutions. For as long as a significant number of people feel that way UKIP will remain a significant force. Personally I don't see this changing much before the election.
I can't remember any earlier GE where there has been such a unanimous clamour that a hung Parliament is virtually certain.
There isn't a unanimous clamour. There are 4 months to go and masses could change. The fixed term parliament means most people haven't even been thinking about an election and despite the premature campaigns this week they won't for at least another month.
If you stop and think about it with both Labour and Cons on 33% it only takes a fractional move for either to win outright power: from 33% by around 5% for Labour or 7% for the Conservatives. That's a small shift. And I'm personally convinced it will happen for the blues.
The Two UKIP by-election results were akin to a conference bounce. UKIP really need a defection to keep their fires stoked, although it is beginning to look like Farage's hat may be rabbitless.
The current NHS kerfuffle is not going to be fertile ground for UKIP either, as the public don't know what they would do other than restrict the pool of doctors available and maybe or maybe not privatise it or maybe or maybe not change the basis of funding, depending on which side of the bed Farage got out of today.
I think that's a little harsh. The big problem is one that you've identified in the past: the share of the world's resources that is going to be consumed by traditional developed economies like ours is in decline. China and India and Indonesia and Malaysia are climbing the wealth curve, just as Taiwan and South Korea and Japan did before. The difference is that those countries had relatively small populations, while the new Asian tigers have enormous ones.
The relative decline in importance of the traditional west, and the fact that someone in Bangalore or Bratislava can probably do your job for less money (which, of course, has been to the benefit of the owners of capital) are not problems that are easily solved. And we all want the benefits of globalisation - oooh... new iPhone! - while being disgusted that the politicians have not insulated us from its costs.
Politicians have less control over events than people believe. And that's why all insurgent movements - when they win power in one way or another - disappoint. (See the LibDems and Barack Obama.)
I dont think on the whole Farage's voters expect him to do much, especially since he isn't going to be PM, or probably even in a coalition. What UKIP does do quite well is give the impression that it is listening to, and sympathetic with, the voters, which the old parties mostly singularly fail to do.
The Tories may have individually responsive MPs, but the impression given by the party is still almost indelibly "in power for the well to do". Labour demonstrated the problem wonderfully with their document telling their candidates to talk about the NHS not immigration. The whole "we want to talk about what we want to talk about, not what you want to talk about" is probably intensely annoying to voters, it certainly would be to me.
I agree entirely that there is a massive problem with the continuing relevance of the west, and with it being able to continue the lifestyle to which we have become accustomed, but as NP has said, politicians haven't even found that nettle yet, never mind grasped it. My personal view is we wont be able to continue it, partly for that reason. One of other issues here is that the Asia tigers managed to provide their populations with comparable public services, often far better services that we do, on a fraction of the tax percentage, because they are generating so much wealth.
The NHS "crisis" so far involves a small number of hospitals going into emergency mode and cancelling some elective surgery to free up some additional beds. It used to happen every winter although the last couple of mild winters have been something of an exception.
It is inevitable that a huge organisation which had had massive increases in its budget year on year is going to struggle after a few years of restraint. In England the tories have delivered a 4% increase in health spending in real terms over 4 years, far less than the NHS is used to.
The NHS, like any large organisation, had some low hanging fruit which could be used to make up for the lack of substantial new money for a time but as that is exhausted real problems emerge. We may be at that stage and the "crisis" may be evidence of it but so far it looks and feels like media hype to me.
Regarding populism: what populism usually means is introducing measures that are very good in short run, but have appalling long-term costs.
When French politicians said (and I'm only paraphrasing a little here) "rapacious capitalists hire and fire at will, without thinking of the families they destroy, we must introduce worker protection legislation to stop profitable companies letting go of workers" then it was a clear case of populism. But it caused horrendous long-term unemployment.
When the British government repeatedly stepped in to stop British firms from going bust in the 1970s, that was decidedly populist too. The opinion polls were enormously in favour of the government bailing out these firms, and saving people's jobs. But the longer-term costs were - again - horrendous.
I have no doubt that a populist government would - like populist South American governments over much of the last half century - use trade barriers to protect British industry and jobs - and I can imagine the public cheering such a move. But anyone who thinks that trade barriers bring prosperity is ignorant of all economic history.
Populism is great for winning votes. But most decisions are hard and involve trade-offs. Those who peddle simple solutions for complicated problems are either stupid, deluded or outright liars.
It's Morton's Fork. Continue as now, and most people will see their standard of living fall. Adopt populist solutions, and most people will see their standard of living fall.
@Indigo is absolutely right that Brent and WTI are not exactly the same. However, that is not the main reason for the differential.
Over the past 20 years, sometimes Brent has traded at a premium, sometimes WTI. At one point in - I think - 2012, WTI was at a $20 discount to Brent.
The current differential is because the Gulf Coast refinineries are set up to process Mayan Crude, which is heavy (and IIRC quite sour) oil, and which typically trades at about an $8 discount to Brent (because only refineries setup to handle Mayan buy it).
A US refiner therefore has the choice of buying Mayan crude or American crude - and WTI therefore trades roughly half way between Mayan crude and Brent.
There's also a logistical discount as North Sea production is very easy to get to a refinery whereas much north American output is not. This is worst of all for Canadian oil sands production (not helped by Obama's failure to approve the necessary pipelines to the USA). Producing cheap shale oil in North Dakota is one thing, getting it to a refinery cheaply is another.
It's Morton's Fork. Continue as now, and most people will see their standard of living fall. Adopt populist solutions, and most people will see their standard of living fall.
I'm planning to start the "Hey look, your standard of living is probably going to fall, and really, there's nothing I, or anyone else, can do about it. But at least I'm honest. Party."
It's Morton's Fork. Continue as now, and most people will see their standard of living fall. Adopt populist solutions, and most people will see their standard of living fall.
I'm planning to start the "Hey look, your standard of living is probably going to fall, and really, there's nothing I, or anyone else, can do about it. But at least I'm honest. Party."
It's Morton's Fork. Continue as now, and most people will see their standard of living fall. Adopt populist solutions, and most people will see their standard of living fall.
I'm planning to start the "Hey look, your standard of living is probably going to fall, and really, there's nothing I, or anyone else, can do about it. But at least I'm honest. Party."
I can't remember any earlier GE where there has been such a unanimous clamour that a hung Parliament is virtually certain.
There isn't a unanimous clamour. There are 4 months to go and masses could change. The fixed term parliament means most people haven't even been thinking about an election and despite the premature campaigns this week they won't for at least another month.
If you stop and think about it with both Labour and Cons on 33% it only takes a fractional move for either to win outright power: from 33% by around 5% for Labour or 7% for the Conservatives. That's a small shift. And I'm personally convinced it will happen for the blues.
The numbers required for the Tories are much higher than you suggest. In England and Wales the party needs to be ahead by roughly 10 percent more on votes than Labour in order to stop losing seats to the red team.
Easy pickings of Lib Dem seats is going to be much harder for the Tories than national swing levels appear as we have seen from the Lord Ashcroft polling.
Labour's task has been made much harder by the SNP surge in Scotland and the fact that it starts from such a dominating position in terms of votes there in 2010.
@Indigo is absolutely right that Brent and WTI are not exactly the same. However, that is not the main reason for the differential.
Over the past 20 years, sometimes Brent has traded at a premium, sometimes WTI. At one point in - I think - 2012, WTI was at a $20 discount to Brent.
The current differential is because the Gulf Coast refinineries are set up to process Mayan Crude, which is heavy (and IIRC quite sour) oil, and which typically trades at about an $8 discount to Brent (because only refineries setup to handle Mayan buy it).
A US refiner therefore has the choice of buying Mayan crude or American crude - and WTI therefore trades roughly half way between Mayan crude and Brent.
There's also a logistical discount as North Sea production is very easy to get to a refinery whereas much north American output is not. This is worst of all for Canadian oil sands production (not helped by Obama's failure to approve the necessary pipelines to the USA). Producing cheap shale oil in North Dakota is one thing, getting it to a refinery cheaply is another.
Absolutely. There was a (brief) time when Bakken oil was trading at a 45% discount to Brent, because of the lack of pipeline capacity out of North Dakota.
(As an aside, the Bakken is definitely not shale oil. IIRC, it's a narrow slice of sandstone wedged between two shales.)
It's Morton's Fork. Continue as now, and most people will see their standard of living fall. Adopt populist solutions, and most people will see their standard of living fall.
I'm planning to start the "Hey look, your standard of living is probably going to fall, and really, there's nothing I, or anyone else, can do about it. But at least I'm honest. Party."
How many votes do you think I'm likely to get?
I'd vote for you.
Do you live in Hampstead & Kilburn?
Ah, no. Maybe I could stand for your new party in Dundee West? It would make such a refreshing change for the electorate from SLAB and the SNP competing to demonstrate how much non existent money they can throw at them. I am confident that dozens of them would be open to reason.
The political conversation has moved on this week onto the deficit (if you listen to the Conservatives) and the NHS (if you listen to Labour). UKIP has nothing interesting to say about either of those subjects, so they become less relevant.
UKIP's success or failure in May will depend on how effectively the two main parties can move the conversation away from immigration. How good do you think either of those parties' message discipline is right now?
I can't remember any earlier GE where there has been such a unanimous clamour that a hung Parliament is virtually certain.
There isn't a unanimous clamour. There are 4 months to go and masses could change. The fixed term parliament means most people haven't even been thinking about an election and despite the premature campaigns this week they won't for at least another month.
If you stop and think about it with both Labour and Cons on 33% it only takes a fractional move for either to win outright power: from 33% by around 5% for Labour or 7% for the Conservatives. That's a small shift. And I'm personally convinced it will happen for the blues.
The numbers required for the Tories are much higher than you suggest. In England and Wales the party needs to be ahead by roughly 10 percent more on votes than Labour in order to stop losing seats to the red team.
Easy pickings of Lib Dem seats is going to be much harder for the Tories than national swing levels appear as we have seen from the Lord Ashcroft polling.
Labour's task has been made much harder by the SNP surge in Scotland and the fact that it starts from such a dominating position in terms of votes there in 2010.
Yes fair enough about the E&W side of things Mike but Labour has a major problem emerging in Scotland and especially now in London. They cannot afford to lose those two mainstays of their support.
Last time the Conservatives were 7% ahead and came within a whisker. Because most of the E&W gains by the Tories will be from the yellows and because of Labour's London problems I think 7% will be enough for them to take power. (Scotland of course will only count as against Labour, not going Tory.)
Probably - pity their record in Wales is even worse - and of course the SNP have cut Scottish NHS Spending......(and only publish records on A&E quarterly - last time they were worse than England's)......So the irony is, on this metric, England is doing best not that you'd know it from Burnham.....
It's Morton's Fork. Continue as now, and most people will see their standard of living fall. Adopt populist solutions, and most people will see their standard of living fall.
I'm planning to start the "Hey look, your standard of living is probably going to fall, and really, there's nothing I, or anyone else, can do about it. But at least I'm honest. Party."
How many votes do you think I'm likely to get?
Your wife might vote for you.
Possibly.
(wasn't there a by-election candidate once who actually got zero votes?)
At the moment the country is facing a particularly frustrating time. We are up to our eyes in debt; we need to cut spending; we have already increased taxes and will probably need to do so again; we are running an horrific trade deficit; our standard of living is falling in real terms and there are real limitations on what our politicians can do about all this.
They are more limited still by the timidity bought on by the need to be re-elected. Its noticeably that most of the Tiger economies dont have this problem! Singapore and Taiwan for example have had the same party in power for decades. Osborne memorably said that he knew what he needed to do, he just didn't know how to do it and get re-elected.
I am pretty sceptical that meaningful tax raising is actually going to happen, and I actually not believe it should for reasons for competitiveness. But even assuming it was going to happen, look at Labour's policies, the big tax rise that is being talked about is the mansion tax, which is going to raise, lets be honest, the square root of bugger all, even if it raises everything Balls hopes it will (which it wont) it will be enough to pay for the interest on the national debt for a fortnight.
Raising taxes on the rich is largely futile, because we are at the top of the Laffer curve now, almost any tax increase will cause a drop in revenue as the rich move away to more agreeably jurisdictions. Also if you talk about increasing the tax on a millionaire by 5%, 5% of several million pounds pays for a hell of a lot of accountants and lawyers, and its almost certainly going to pay him to fight the changes and work around them. The other problem with the Rich is there aren't enough of them, if you put big tax on them, and they didn't emigrate, it still wouldn't raise enough tax to matter.
We really need to learn from Canada 1994, we actually need government to do less, not a bit of nip and tuck, but just move out of providing whole groups of services completely. Yes, it will be unpopular as hell, no we probably dont have a politician like Jean Chretien with the balls to do it. So in my view we will slowly slip under the water.
It's Morton's Fork. Continue as now, and most people will see their standard of living fall. Adopt populist solutions, and most people will see their standard of living fall.
I'm planning to start the "Hey look, your standard of living is probably going to fall, and really, there's nothing I, or anyone else, can do about it. But at least I'm honest. Party."
It's Morton's Fork. Continue as now, and most people will see their standard of living fall. Adopt populist solutions, and most people will see their standard of living fall.
I'm planning to start the "Hey look, your standard of living is probably going to fall, and really, there's nothing I, or anyone else, can do about it. But at least I'm honest. Party."
How many votes do you think I'm likely to get?
I'd vote for you.
Do you live in Hampstead & Kilburn?
Ah, no. Maybe I could stand for your new party in Dundee West? It would make such a refreshing change for the electorate from SLAB and the SNP competing to demonstrate how much non existent money they can throw at them. I am confident that dozens of them would be open to reason.
Surely there must be a gap in the market in Scotland for the "I would rather spend my own money than hand it over to the government Party"? Whilst there are poor areas in Scotland, on average Scotland has much the same wealth as the rest of the country.
Or has the previously famous Scottish thriftiness, work ethic and desire for self improvement completely faded as a result of the welfare state and the desire to live off oil? Did the North Sea Oil boom destroy the Scottish soul?
At the moment the country is facing a particularly frustrating time. We are up to our eyes in debt; we need to cut spending; we have already increased taxes and will probably need to do so again; we are running an horrific trade deficit; our standard of living is falling in real terms and there are real limitations on what our politicians can do about all this.
Osborne memorably said that he knew what he needed to do, he just didn't know how to do it and get re-elected.
At the moment the country is facing a particularly frustrating time. We are up to our eyes in debt; we need to cut spending; we have already increased taxes and will probably need to do so again; we are running an horrific trade deficit; our standard of living is falling in real terms and there are real limitations on what our politicians can do about all this.
Osborne memorably said that he knew what he needed to do, he just didn't know how to do it and get re-elected.
At the moment the country is facing a particularly frustrating time. We are up to our eyes in debt; we need to cut spending; we have already increased taxes and will probably need to do so again; we are running an horrific trade deficit; our standard of living is falling in real terms and there are real limitations on what our politicians can do about all this.
They are more limited still by the timidity bought on by the need to be re-elected. Its noticeably that most of the Tiger economies dont have this problem! Singapore and Taiwan for example have had the same party in power for decades. Osborne memorably said that he knew what he needed to do, he just didn't know how to do it and get re-elected.
I am pretty sceptical that meaningful tax raising is actually going to happen, and I actually not believe it should for reasons for competitiveness. But even assuming it was going to happen, look at Labour's policies, the big tax rise that is being talked about is the mansion tax, which is going to raise, lets be honest, the square root of bugger all, even if it raises everything Balls hopes it will (which it wont) it will be enough to pay for the interest on the national debt for a fortnight.
Raising taxes on the rich is largely futile, because we are at the top of the Laffer curve now, almost any tax increase will cause a drop in revenue as the rich move away to more agreeably jurisdictions. Also if you talk about increasing the tax on a millionaire by 5%, 5% of several million pounds pays for a hell of a lot of accountants and lawyers, and its almost certainly going to pay him to fight the changes and work around them. The other problem with the Rich is there aren't enough of them, if you put big tax on them, and they didn't emigrate, it still wouldn't raise enough tax to matter.
We really need to learn from Canada 1994, we actually need government to do less, not a bit of nip and tuck, but just move out of providing whole groups of services completely. Yes, it will be unpopular as hell, no we probably dont have a politician like Jean Chretien with the balls to do it. So in my view we will slowly slip under the water.
The top 1% of taxpayers pay 27.5% of all tax. There may not be many rich, but they pay for the NHS. So what's Ed going to do when a sizeable number opt out of paying tax in Britain? He can't let the NHS fail - it would be the death of his party. So everyone else would have to fill the void in their budget.
Attract another few thousand of the Rich though and you could use their tax to throw at the NHS. So which party is going to attract these wealthy few to our shores? Not Labour.
It's Morton's Fork. Continue as now, and most people will see their standard of living fall. Adopt populist solutions, and most people will see their standard of living fall.
I'm planning to start the "Hey look, your standard of living is probably going to fall, and really, there's nothing I, or anyone else, can do about it. But at least I'm honest. Party."
How many votes do you think I'm likely to get?
I'd vote for you.
Do you live in Hampstead & Kilburn?
Ah, no. Maybe I could stand for your new party in Dundee West? It would make such a refreshing change for the electorate from SLAB and the SNP competing to demonstrate how much non existent money they can throw at them. I am confident that dozens of them would be open to reason.
LOL, quite something as the Tories continue to borrow over £100B of non existent money a year just to keep us poor..
It's Morton's Fork. Continue as now, and most people will see their standard of living fall. Adopt populist solutions, and most people will see their standard of living fall.
I'm planning to start the "Hey look, your standard of living is probably going to fall, and really, there's nothing I, or anyone else, can do about it. But at least I'm honest. Party."
How many votes do you think I'm likely to get?
I'd vote for you.
Do you live in Hampstead & Kilburn?
Ah, no. Maybe I could stand for your new party in Dundee West? It would make such a refreshing change for the electorate from SLAB and the SNP competing to demonstrate how much non existent money they can throw at them. I am confident that dozens of them would be open to reason.
Surely there must be a gap in the market in Scotland for the "I would rather spend my own money than hand it over to the government Party"? Whilst there are poor areas in Scotland, on average Scotland has much the same wealth as the rest of the country.
Or has the previously famous Scottish thriftiness, work ethic and desire for self improvement completely faded as a result of the welfare state and the desire to live off oil? Did the North Sea Oil boom destroy the Scottish soul?
No policies from London and the devastation of most of industry happened. Oil boom excepted , Westminster builds all its infrastructure in the south , hence why Scotland , Northern England , Wales etc are wastelands compared to London and south east.
Probably - pity their record in Wales is even worse - and of course the SNP have cut Scottish NHS Spending......(and only publish records on A&E quarterly - last time they were worse than England's)......So the irony is, on this metric, England is doing best not that you'd know it from Burnham.....
SNP balance their budget rather than borrowing over £100B a year mind you. Very very small price to pay and just shows the Scottish NHS is more efficient than the lardy English one. All that cash and they are declaring daily emergencies.
I can't remember any earlier GE where there has been such a unanimous clamour that a hung Parliament is virtually certain.
There isn't a unanimous clamour. There are 4 months to go and masses could change. The fixed term parliament means most people haven't even been thinking about an election and despite the premature campaigns this week they won't for at least another month.
If you stop and think about it with both Labour and Cons on 33% it only takes a fractional move for either to win outright power: from 33% by around 5% for Labour or 7% for the Conservatives. That's a small shift. And I'm personally convinced it will happen for the blues.
The numbers required for the Tories are much higher than you suggest. In England and Wales the party needs to be ahead by roughly 10 percent more on votes than Labour in order to stop losing seats to the red team.
Easy pickings of Lib Dem seats is going to be much harder for the Tories than national swing levels appear as we have seen from the Lord Ashcroft polling.
Labour's task has been made much harder by the SNP surge in Scotland and the fact that it starts from such a dominating position in terms of votes there in 2010.
Yes fair enough about the E&W side of things Mike but Labour has a major problem emerging in Scotland and especially now in London. They cannot afford to lose those two mainstays of their support.
Last time the Conservatives were 7% ahead and came within a whisker. Because most of the E&W gains by the Tories will be from the yellows and because of Labour's London problems I think 7% will be enough for them to take power. (Scotland of course will only count as against Labour, not going Tory.)
By the way, just to clarify this, what makes 2015 very different is the drop in LibDem support. Whilst I have repeatedly said I don't think they will suffer wipeout, it's currently inconceivable that they will retain 57 seats. I am expecting the Conservatives to pick up a minimum of 10 LibDem E&W seats, and probably more than double that number. This is very significant to the calculations.
You must start factoring the LibDem losses into your points about the England and Wales Conservative vote share, Mike, because it's the Conservatives who stand to gain most.
Telegraphs Allister Heath has a very interesting and precise assessment of Labours Mansion Tax and the horrific damage it would do to all and this country despite it bending a class war based tax.
"This is a truly dreadful idea from a Labour Party that has lost touch with economic reality"
It's Morton's Fork. Continue as now, and most people will see their standard of living fall. Adopt populist solutions, and most people will see their standard of living fall.
I'm planning to start the "Hey look, your standard of living is probably going to fall, and really, there's nothing I, or anyone else, can do about it. But at least I'm honest. Party."
How many votes do you think I'm likely to get?
I'd vote for you.
Do you live in Hampstead & Kilburn?
Ah, no. Maybe I could stand for your new party in Dundee West? It would make such a refreshing change for the electorate from SLAB and the SNP competing to demonstrate how much non existent money they can throw at them. I am confident that dozens of them would be open to reason.
LOL, quite something as the Tories continue to borrow over £100B of non existent money a year just to keep us poor..
A large chunk of that is pay and benefits for government employees after the pay rises they were given by Blair/Brown. I am sure the pay rises were well deserved, there was just the slight problem that the country couldn't afford them. What was Osborne supposed to do after moving in to No11, sack loads of doctors and teachers ? Can't see that causing any electoral problems at all...
Another large chunk was idiotic contracts signed by Labour for PFI and boondongles like aircraft carriers which we couldn't afford either, and which Osborne couldn't cancel because the cost of cancellation was higher than the cost of carrying on.
Yes, the Tories were too timid, but because they got saddled with a load of structural costs run up by Labour which they couldn't cut without throwing away any vague chance of re-election.
Telegraphs Allister Heath has a very interesting and precise assessment of Labours Mansion Tax and the horrific damage it would do to all and this country despite it bending a class war based tax.
"This is a truly dreadful idea from a Labour Party that has lost touch with economic reality"
The top 1% of taxpayers pay 27.5% of all tax. There may not be many rich, but they pay for the NHS. So what's Ed going to do when a sizeable number opt out of paying tax in Britain? He can't let the NHS fail - it would be the death of his party. So everyone else would have to fill the void in their budget.
Attract another few thousand of the Rich though and you could use their tax to throw at the NHS. So which party is going to attract these wealthy few to our shores? Not Labour.
Absolutely the answer isn't Labour. Even if they do get elected they will find there isn't many ways to add further taxes on those Rich without enough of them voting with their feet as to cause a nett drop in revenue.
1) The tax proposal itself will do Labour no harm, either in London or elsewhere. Those who might be affected (at least in the short term) and who object were not voting Labour anyway.
2) However, Jim Murphy making it clear that London would be paying for Scottish goodies is not a good look for Labour in the south east. If the idea takes hold that London is a cash cow for other areas' benefit, that could be damaging with some voters.
I'm not expecting it to make any difference in practice (I expect Labour to do very well in London this year), but it's one to watch.
I can't remember any earlier GE where there has been such a unanimous clamour that a hung Parliament is virtually certain.
There isn't a unanimous clamour. There are 4 months to go and masses could change. The fixed term parliament means most people haven't even been thinking about an election and despite the premature campaigns this week they won't for at least another month.
If you stop and think about it with both Labour and Cons on 33% it only takes a fractional move for either to win outright power: from 33% by around 5% for Labour or 7% for the Conservatives. That's a small shift. And I'm personally convinced it will happen for the blues.
The numbers required for the Tories are much higher than you suggest. In England and Wales the party needs to be ahead by roughly 10 percent more on votes than Labour in order to stop losing seats to the red team.
Easy pickings of Lib Dem seats is going to be much harder for the Tories than national swing levels appear as we have seen from the Lord Ashcroft polling.
Labour's task has been made much harder by the SNP surge in Scotland and the fact that it starts from such a dominating position in terms of votes there in 2010.
If this election were like previous elections, then what you say is true. But how genuinely different is it this time?
If most UKIP votes are in areas of the South East and East Anglia, the Conservative vote starts to become more efficiently distributed.
Like just about everyone else I am forecasting NOM, and am wondering if the betting value lies elsewhere.
Just heard the headline 8am news on R4 today. German sources say that Merkel is likely to cede very little ground to Cameron when she meets him for talks on the UK's EU renegotiation later. Apparently, there was talk of German backpeddling even on the very small reforms on EU migrant benefit claim rights in the UK that Cameron has already outlined.
There are just not serious about keeping the UK in the EU. Better off out.
They only matter if they are someone else's figures other than Labours. This is not the first time he has said this line either. He has to say it because Labour figures particularly in Wales are indefensible well to a point until the BBC report anyway.
I note the BbC are up to their old tricks when reporting on English NHS by failing to indicate Wales is entirely under Labour control but disingenuously lumping it in with the reports on the English system.
If anyone is any doubt had this situation been reversed the BBC line, front and centre. would have been ......yes it's difficult in England but the alternative is the situation in "Tory Wales" followed by reporters camped out on Tory run Dai Bach General hospital in the area of a Tory parish council interviewing people as they sobered up.
It's Morton's Fork. Continue as now, and most people will see their standard of living fall. Adopt populist solutions, and most people will see their standard of living fall.
I'm planning to start the "Hey look, your standard of living is probably going to fall, and really, there's nothing I, or anyone else, can do about it. But at least I'm honest. Party."
How many votes do you think I'm likely to get?
I'd vote for you.
Do you live in Hampstead & Kilburn?
Ah, no. Maybe I could stand for your new party in Dundee West? It would make such a refreshing change for the electorate from SLAB and the SNP competing to demonstrate how much non existent money they can throw at them. I am confident that dozens of them would be open to reason.
Surely there must be a gap in the market in Scotland for the "I would rather spend my own money than hand it over to the government Party"? Whilst there are poor areas in Scotland, on average Scotland has much the same wealth as the rest of the country.
Or has the previously famous Scottish thriftiness, work ethic and desire for self improvement completely faded as a result of the welfare state and the desire to live off oil? Did the North Sea Oil boom destroy the Scottish soul?
No policies from London and the devastation of most of industry happened. Oil boom excepted , Westminster builds all its infrastructure in the south , hence why Scotland , Northern England , Wales etc are wastelands compared to London and south east.
Ah yes, the Nissan (Sunderland London) plant, the Honda (Swindon SevenOaks) plant and Toyota (Deeside Romford) plant. Then there was those two aircraft carriers they commissioned from BAE Systems Marine (Govan & Rosyth Canterbury).
Even though I loather lots about the EU, we are better off in, leaving the EU would be an unmitigated disaster.. That's why you must not pander to little Englanders
1) The tax proposal itself will do Labour no harm, either in London or elsewhere. Those who might be affected (at least in the short term) and who object were not voting Labour anyway.
2) However, Jim Murphy making it clear that London would be paying for Scottish goodies is not a good look for Labour in the south east. If the idea takes hold that London is a cash cow for other areas' benefit, that could be damaging with some voters.
I'm not expecting it to make any difference in practice (I expect Labour to do very well in London this year), but it's one to watch.
There was a recent Yougov poll that put Labour on 41%, Cons on 33% in London, which is a swing of 3% from 2010.
Just heard the headline 8am news on R4 today. German sources say that Merkel is likely to cede very little ground to Cameron when she meets him for talks on the UK's EU renegotiation later. Apparently, there was talk of German backpeddling even on the very small reforms on EU migrant benefit claim rights in the UK that Cameron has already outlined.
There are just not serious about keeping the UK in the EU. Better off out.
Better off out, certainly. It's more that they think we'll just cave in. If they thought we really were serious about renegotiation, they'd offer us something.
Telegraphs Allister Heath has a very interesting and precise assessment of Labours Mansion Tax and the horrific damage it would do to all and this country despite it bending a class war based tax.
"This is a truly dreadful idea from a Labour Party that has lost touch with economic reality"
No doubt written in his London mansion, whinging deadbeat.
Obviously you did not read the entire piece and not only who it will effect but how mission creep in the future will sucker in a lot more people. It also is very likely ( as shown elsewhere) an exodus of the top % who pay the majority of the tax in this country. How this can be a good position to be in other than for those obsessed with class war really is failing to assess the overall implications.
There are a fair number of UKIP/Con floating voters. Proposals like taxing the South East to pay for Scottish health care help to push them back into the Conservative camp.
Even though I loather lots about the EU, we are better off in, leaving the EU would be an unmitigated disaster.. That's why you must not pander to little Englanders
It's Morton's Fork. Continue as now, and most people will see their standard of living fall. Adopt populist solutions, and most people will see their standard of living fall.
I'm planning to start the "Hey look, your standard of living is probably going to fall, and really, there's nothing I, or anyone else, can do about it. But at least I'm honest. Party."
How many votes do you think I'm likely to get?
I'd vote for you.
Do you live in Hampstead & Kilburn?
Ah, no. Maybe I could stand for your new party in Dundee West? It would make such a refreshing change for the electorate from SLAB and the SNP competing to demonstrate how much non existent money they can throw at them. I am confident that dozens of them would be open to reason.
Surely there must be a gap in the market in Scotland for the "I would rather spend my own money than hand it over to the government Party"? Whilst there are poor areas in Scotland, on average Scotland has much the same wealth as the rest of the country.
Or has the previously famous Scottish thriftiness, work ethic and desire for self improvement completely faded as a result of the welfare state and the desire to live off oil? Did the North Sea Oil boom destroy the Scottish soul?
No policies from London and the devastation of most of industry happened. Oil boom excepted , Westminster builds all its infrastructure in the south , hence why Scotland , Northern England , Wales etc are wastelands compared to London and south east.
Ah yes, the Nissan (Sunderland London) plant, the Honda (Swindon SevenOaks) plant and Toyota (Deeside Romford) plant. Then there was those two aircraft carriers they commissioned from BAE Systems Marine (Govan & Rosyth Canterbury).
A few sops here and there, pity the aircraftless carriers assembled in Scotland lie rusting , useless hulks and a total waste of money, typical short sighted London political thinking. The car plants are not there due to useless London politicians, they are there due to the companies and their wish to trade in Europe.
It's Morton's Fork. Continue as now, and most people will see their standard of living fall. Adopt populist solutions, and most people will see their standard of living fall.
I'm planning to start the "Hey look, your standard of living is probably going to fall, and really, there's nothing I, or anyone else, can do about it. But at least I'm honest. Party."
How many votes do you think I'm likely to get?
I'd vote for you.
Do you live in Hampstead & Kilburn?
Ah, no. Maybe I could stand for your new party in Dundee West? It would make such a refreshing change for the electorate from SLAB and the SNP competing to demonstrate how much non existent money they can throw at them. I am confident that dozens of them would be open to reason.
Surely there must be a gap in the market in Scotland for the "I would rather spend my own money than hand it over to the government Party"? Whilst there are poor areas in Scotland, on average Scotland has much the same wealth as the rest of the country.
Or has the previously famous Scottish thriftiness, work ethic and desire for self improvement completely faded as a result of the welfare state and the desire to live off oil? Did the North Sea Oil boom destroy the Scottish soul?
No policies from London and the devastation of most of industry happened. Oil boom excepted , Westminster builds all its infrastructure in the south , hence why Scotland , Northern England , Wales etc are wastelands compared to London and south east.
Ah yes, the Nissan (Sunderland London) plant, the Honda (Swindon SevenOaks) plant and Toyota (Deeside Romford) plant. Then there was those two aircraft carriers they commissioned from BAE Systems Marine (Govan & Rosyth Canterbury).
A few sops here and there, pity the aircraftless carriers assembled in Scotland lie rusting , useless hulks and a total waste of money, typical short sighted London political thinking. The car plants are not there due to useless London politicians, they are there due to the companies and their wish to trade in Europe.
All three car plants were built with government incentives, not least was them being sold the land at agricultural rates of around £1,800 per acre. The aircraft carrier might not be much good, but building them certainly injected a load of cash into the region.
Even though I loather lots about the EU, we are better off in, leaving the EU would be an unmitigated disaster.. That's why you must not pander to little Englanders
Whilst this long election campaign will be bloody tedious, it may (hopefully) be a one-off, whereas they spend half of the time campaigning in the presidential race.
"UKIP's success or failure in May will depend on how effectively the two main parties can move the conversation away from immigration. How good do you think either of those parties' message discipline is right now?"
That's the thread sorted. But you've also got to worry about the EU bureaucrats' discipline.
NHS = good for Labour and good for immigration.
A pity there's a concentration on the politics because for once, there are a few facts sneaking out.
David Cameron is to be warned by the European commission that a central demand in his renegotiation of Britain’s EU membership terms is likely to be rejected as unacceptable on the grounds that it risks infringing the founding principle of the EU on the free movement of people.
So, no quota, no cap, no points system, and now not even any changes to the benefit system for immigrants. Today Merkel has said no treaty changes...
1) The tax proposal itself will do Labour no harm, either in London or elsewhere. Those who might be affected (at least in the short term) and who object were not voting Labour anyway.
2) However, Jim Murphy making it clear that London would be paying for Scottish goodies is not a good look for Labour in the south east. If the idea takes hold that London is a cash cow for other areas' benefit, that could be damaging with some voters.
I'm not expecting it to make any difference in practice (I expect Labour to do very well in London this year), but it's one to watch.
I don't think you have been paying any attention to this debate and how and why you are completely wrong on point 1). In brief to counter:
1. It's not just the top 55,000 houses but those from around £500,000 up who see the Sword of Damocles over their roofs. If you don't believe this go and talk to estate agents in London.
2. Labour become very vulnerable to the charge that if it's £1m now it will be lowered tomorrow.
3. Old Labour's biggest ever blunder was failing to realise how home ownership is beloved of the English. Touch the home at your peril.
4. It's utterly untrue to say that those affected don't vote Labour anyway. You have no evidence for this claim and it is patently untrue. The well-off metropolitan elite are often left-leaning liberal minded: the very people Tony Blair wooed and won.
5. Because a lot of those affected (in the bracket and peering nervously through their letterboxes) are London metropolitan elite they are not simply big businessmen. They are often liberal minded intelligentsia: those with good homes, yes, but who have a social conscience. They are highly influential people who work in television news, newspapers, documentaries, arts, theatre etc. etc. They have a reach well beyond their numbers. And they're not happy.
7. As you say, the recent declaration by Jim Murphy that this will pay for Scottish nurses is electoral suicide for London Labour. It's an indication of how the wheels may fall off for Labour in this election.
Finally, to the person mentioning the recent YouGov London poll: what poll? When was this published? The last one I saw was three months back.
Anyone who has ever shot a commercial for Procter and Gamble will know they have very strict quidelines on how to sell a product whatever that product may be. 7 seconds to show the problem 10 seconds to show the P&G product solving that problem 7 seconds to show how it's improved your life and 6 seconds for the pack shot and disclaimers.
A formula which has made them the most successful advertisers on the planet
Now the election is upon us and the volume of posts is rising wouldn't it be a good idea for posters to use the P&G formula thus making their points brief persuasive and undemanding of their audience
Now the election is upon us and the volume of posts is rising wouldn't it be a good idea for posters to use the P&G formula thus making their points brief persuasive and undemanding of their audience
Sounds like a recipe for a lot more "in my pants" posts, rather than a well developed argument....
Anyone who has ever shot a commercial for Procter and Gamble will know they have very strict quidelines on how to sell a product whatever that product may be. 7 seconds to show the problem 10 seconds to show the procter and Gamble product solving that problem 7 seconds to show how it's improved your life and 6 seconds for the pack shot and disclaimers.
A formula which has made them the most successful advertisers on the planet
Now the election is upon us and the volume of posts is rising wouldn't it be a good idea for posters to use the P&G formula thus making their points brief persuasive and undemanding of their audience
P and G deal in adverts for a passive sofa audience. PB deals with an intelligent and even obsessive audience. Different strokes for different folks.
I, for one read and post here because it is the best site for detailed political discussion, and does not just trade soundbites and cliches.
Even though I loather lots about the EU, we are better off in, leaving the EU would be an unmitigated disaster.. That's why you must not pander to little Englanders
Do you have any evidence that leaving the EU would be an 'unmitigated disaster' beyond asserting that it would be so?
5. Because a lot of those affected (in the bracket and peering nervously through their letterboxes) are London metropolitan elite they are not simply big businessmen. They are often liberal minded intelligentsia: those with good homes, yes, but who have a social conscience. They are highly influential people who work in television news, newspapers, documentaries, arts, theatre etc. etc. They have a reach well beyond their numbers. And they're not happy.
Why?
Do these wealthy influential people with a social conscience only want taxes that don't affect them?
Even though I loather lots about the EU, we are better off in, leaving the EU would be an unmitigated disaster.. That's why you must not pander to little Englanders
Nice to see democracy alive at well.
When you have got enough to vote tho leaving the EU then do so, to blame it on democracy is ludicrous.
Even though I loather lots about the EU, we are better off in, leaving the EU would be an unmitigated disaster.. That's why you must not pander to little Englanders
Do you have any evidence that leaving the EU would be an 'unmitigated disaster' beyond asserting that it would be so?
It stands to reason dunnit. One country isolated, do you think the EU would be friendly towards uf if we left?
Even though I loather lots about the EU, we are better off in, leaving the EU would be an unmitigated disaster.. That's why you must not pander to little Englanders
Just as taxing the South East pushes right wing voters back to the Conservatives, that sort of attitude repels them. If the Conservatives lose in May, they'll have no one to blame but themselves.
Even though I loather lots about the EU, we are better off in, leaving the EU would be an unmitigated disaster.. That's why you must not pander to little Englanders
Do you have any evidence that leaving the EU would be an 'unmitigated disaster' beyond asserting that it would be so?
It stands to reason dunnit. One country isolated, do you think the EU would be friendly towards uf if we left?
Like isolated South Korea you mean ? WTO MFN status covers a lot of ground.
Even though I loather lots about the EU, we are better off in, leaving the EU would be an unmitigated disaster.. That's why you must not pander to little Englanders
Do you have any evidence that leaving the EU would be an 'unmitigated disaster' beyond asserting that it would be so?
It stands to reason dunnit. One country isolated, do you think the EU would be friendly towards uf if we left?
Of course they would be friendly. They would have no choice given the £88bn balance of payments deficit we are currently running with them.
There are no upsides to our remaining members of the EU. The words 'unmitigated disaster' are a perfect summary of our membership over the last 40 years.
Exactly what is wrong with politics and politicians. They mean - let's keep it in the news and gain a few votes. A summit about the NHS is needed but you'd have to exclude politicians to have a chance of progress.
Problem 1... We're living longer, getting much more fussy, and medicine is better at keeping us alive. Problem 2 ... The cost of this is increasing rapidly Porblem 3 ... Politicians only see this through the lens of party advantage. For example, NICE was a logical idea but can be inconvenient politically; therefore it will be ignored when necessary.
The NHS does need an independent inquiry and options need to presented to the public. We will never have that because of the politics involved.
Comments
@Indigo is absolutely right that Brent and WTI are not exactly the same. However, that is not the main reason for the differential.
Over the past 20 years, sometimes Brent has traded at a premium, sometimes WTI. At one point in - I think - 2012, WTI was at a $20 discount to Brent.
The current differential is because the Gulf Coast refinineries are set up to process Mayan Crude, which is heavy (and IIRC quite sour) oil, and which typically trades at about an $8 discount to Brent (because only refineries setup to handle Mayan buy it).
A US refiner therefore has the choice of buying Mayan crude or American crude - and WTI therefore trades roughly half way between Mayan crude and Brent.
http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/wordofmouth/2015/jan/05/-sp-brown-sauce-sales-are-falling-has-britain-finally-come-to-its-senses
Steerpike in the Speccie thinks it might be a pisstake, but isnt sure
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2015/01/guardians-brown-mire/
Sean. Is your story of a chat with one person shyly going to vote UKIP as "statistically significant" as the chat I had with my brother last night , who really doesn't like Dave and hasn't all thro this Parliament but is going to vote Tory because he thinks Ed Miliband would be a disaster for the Country?
He thought he had identified a new group - LibDem --> UKIP switchers. I recall they've been somewhat discussed on here (probably reflecting the NOTA element of LD votes), but it's always nice to have anecedotal description of a member of this group
Something slightly off about sitting in the sun in Socal listening to someone rip Cameron to pieces...
That being said, if you'd asked them five years ago why they were voting LibDem, they would have said "the other parties are all the same, it's time we tried someone new, and these guys really are listening to what people think".
I suspect we are just seeing a ‘post defection’ drop in support, due to lack of recent media exposure – the problem for UKIP and minor parties’ especially, is the tendency to be crowded out of the spot-light, as general election campaigns kick off.
Most voters can hear it in the language used by many senior politicians all the time. Everything is spoken of in terms of party positioning, rather than giving the electorate policies they approve of. There are too many wheezes and cunning plans, and not enough sensible policy. And there are way, way too many lies, and especially stupid obvious lies. Lets not even get started on the sanctimony and the cant.
People also hear populism being spoken of as it its a dirty word, "populism: a member or adherent of a political party seeking to represent the interests of ordinary people." Most voters are not going to see much wrong with seeking to represent the interest of ordinary people, rather than the elite or special interests.
Do you give Brandy to an alcoholic?
http://lybio.net/tag/yes-minister-open-government-transcription/
The relative decline in importance of the traditional west, and the fact that someone in Bangalore or Bratislava can probably do your job for less money (which, of course, has been to the benefit of the owners of capital) are not problems that are easily solved. And we all want the benefits of globalisation - oooh... new iPhone! - while being disgusted that the politicians have not insulated us from its costs.
Politicians have less control over events than people believe. And that's why all insurgent movements - when they win power in one way or another - disappoint. (See the LibDems and Barack Obama.)
I can't remember any earlier GE where there has been such a unanimous clamour that a hung Parliament is virtually certain.
With both Labour and Conservative available at around 5/1 against them achieving an overall majority, I'm watching for any clear trend emerging with a view to betting against the herd.
When French politicians said (and I'm only paraphrasing a little here) "rapacious capitalists hire and fire at will, without thinking of the families they destroy, we must introduce worker protection legislation to stop profitable companies letting go of workers" then it was a clear case of populism. But it caused horrendous long-term unemployment.
When the British government repeatedly stepped in to stop British firms from going bust in the 1970s, that was decidedly populist too. The opinion polls were enormously in favour of the government bailing out these firms, and saving people's jobs. But the longer-term costs were - again - horrendous.
I have no doubt that a populist government would - like populist South American governments over much of the last half century - use trade barriers to protect British industry and jobs - and I can imagine the public cheering such a move. But anyone who thinks that trade barriers bring prosperity is ignorant of all economic history.
Populism is great for winning votes. But most decisions are hard and involve trade-offs. Those who peddle simple solutions for complicated problems are either stupid, deluded or outright liars.
UKIP do represent frustration, disappointment and despair with the conventional parties. Mostly, this is because of the reasons that Robert sets out. Everything seems so simple from outside and the complexities and limitations of power are perceived as evidence of weakness or hypocrisy rather than reality.
At the moment the country is facing a particularly frustrating time. We are up to our eyes in debt; we need to cut spending; we have already increased taxes and will probably need to do so again; we are running an horrific trade deficit; our standard of living is falling in real terms and there are real limitations on what our politicians can do about all this.
It is so much easier to blame their moral failings than to accept the cold reality that we are in a dreadful mess. It is so much easier to vote for someone offering simplistic solutions. For as long as a significant number of people feel that way UKIP will remain a significant force. Personally I don't see this changing much before the election.
If you stop and think about it with both Labour and Cons on 33% it only takes a fractional move for either to win outright power: from 33% by around 5% for Labour or 7% for the Conservatives. That's a small shift. And I'm personally convinced it will happen for the blues.
The current NHS kerfuffle is not going to be fertile ground for UKIP either, as the public don't know what they would do other than restrict the pool of doctors available and maybe or maybe not privatise it or maybe or maybe not change the basis of funding, depending on which side of the bed Farage got out of today.
The Tories may have individually responsive MPs, but the impression given by the party is still almost indelibly "in power for the well to do". Labour demonstrated the problem wonderfully with their document telling their candidates to talk about the NHS not immigration. The whole "we want to talk about what we want to talk about, not what you want to talk about" is probably intensely annoying to voters, it certainly would be to me.
I agree entirely that there is a massive problem with the continuing relevance of the west, and with it being able to continue the lifestyle to which we have become accustomed, but as NP has said, politicians haven't even found that nettle yet, never mind grasped it. My personal view is we wont be able to continue it, partly for that reason. One of other issues here is that the Asia tigers managed to provide their populations with comparable public services, often far better services that we do, on a fraction of the tax percentage, because they are generating so much wealth.
It is inevitable that a huge organisation which had had massive increases in its budget year on year is going to struggle after a few years of restraint. In England the tories have delivered a 4% increase in health spending in real terms over 4 years, far less than the NHS is used to.
The NHS, like any large organisation, had some low hanging fruit which could be used to make up for the lack of substantial new money for a time but as that is exhausted real problems emerge. We may be at that stage and the "crisis" may be evidence of it but so far it looks and feels like media hype to me.
Useful for Labour though.
How many votes do you think I'm likely to get?
Easy pickings of Lib Dem seats is going to be much harder for the Tories than national swing levels appear as we have seen from the Lord Ashcroft polling.
Labour's task has been made much harder by the SNP surge in Scotland and the fact that it starts from such a dominating position in terms of votes there in 2010.
(As an aside, the Bakken is definitely not shale oil. IIRC, it's a narrow slice of sandstone wedged between two shales.)
UKIP's success or failure in May will depend on how effectively the two main parties can move the conversation away from immigration. How good do you think either of those parties' message discipline is right now?
Last time the Conservatives were 7% ahead and came within a whisker. Because most of the E&W gains by the Tories will be from the yellows and because of Labour's London problems I think 7% will be enough for them to take power. (Scotland of course will only count as against Labour, not going Tory.)
Possibly.
(wasn't there a by-election candidate once who actually got zero votes?)
I am pretty sceptical that meaningful tax raising is actually going to happen, and I actually not believe it should for reasons for competitiveness. But even assuming it was going to happen, look at Labour's policies, the big tax rise that is being talked about is the mansion tax, which is going to raise, lets be honest, the square root of bugger all, even if it raises everything Balls hopes it will (which it wont) it will be enough to pay for the interest on the national debt for a fortnight.
Raising taxes on the rich is largely futile, because we are at the top of the Laffer curve now, almost any tax increase will cause a drop in revenue as the rich move away to more agreeably jurisdictions. Also if you talk about increasing the tax on a millionaire by 5%, 5% of several million pounds pays for a hell of a lot of accountants and lawyers, and its almost certainly going to pay him to fight the changes and work around them. The other problem with the Rich is there aren't enough of them, if you put big tax on them, and they didn't emigrate, it still wouldn't raise enough tax to matter.
We really need to learn from Canada 1994, we actually need government to do less, not a bit of nip and tuck, but just move out of providing whole groups of services completely. Yes, it will be unpopular as hell, no we probably dont have a politician like Jean Chretien with the balls to do it. So in my view we will slowly slip under the water.
Or has the previously famous Scottish thriftiness, work ethic and desire for self improvement completely faded as a result of the welfare state and the desire to live off oil? Did the North Sea Oil boom destroy the Scottish soul?
Attract another few thousand of the Rich though and you could use their tax to throw at the NHS. So which party is going to attract these wealthy few to our shores? Not Labour.
You must start factoring the LibDem losses into your points about the England and Wales Conservative vote share, Mike, because it's the Conservatives who stand to gain most.
"This is a truly dreadful idea from a Labour Party that has lost touch with economic reality"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/11117251/Why-Labours-Mansion-Tax-shows-that-it-has-lost-touch-with-financial-reality.html
Another large chunk was idiotic contracts signed by Labour for PFI and boondongles like aircraft carriers which we couldn't afford either, and which Osborne couldn't cancel because the cost of cancellation was higher than the cost of carrying on.
Yes, the Tories were too timid, but because they got saddled with a load of structural costs run up by Labour which they couldn't cut without throwing away any vague chance of re-election.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=38&TVCON=&LAB=31&TVLAB=&LIB=9&TVLIB=&UKIP=8®ion=All+GB+changed+seats&boundary=2010&seat=--Show+all--&minorparties=Y
1) The tax proposal itself will do Labour no harm, either in London or elsewhere. Those who might be affected (at least in the short term) and who object were not voting Labour anyway.
2) However, Jim Murphy making it clear that London would be paying for Scottish goodies is not a good look for Labour in the south east. If the idea takes hold that London is a cash cow for other areas' benefit, that could be damaging with some voters.
I'm not expecting it to make any difference in practice (I expect Labour to do very well in London this year), but it's one to watch.
If most UKIP votes are in areas of the South East and East Anglia, the Conservative vote starts to become more efficiently distributed.
Like just about everyone else I am forecasting NOM, and am wondering if the betting value lies elsewhere.
There are just not serious about keeping the UK in the EU. Better off out.
Wales seems to be becoming a problem for Burnham. He was attacked on it again on C4 News last night. His response, "I'm here to talk about England".
I'm starting to pity Americans.
Whilst this long election campaign will be bloody tedious, it may (hopefully) be a one-off, whereas they spend half of the time campaigning in the presidential race.
"UKIP's success or failure in May will depend on how effectively the two main parties can move the conversation away from immigration. How good do you think either of those parties' message discipline is right now?"
That's the thread sorted. But you've also got to worry about the EU bureaucrats' discipline.
NHS = good for Labour and good for immigration.
A pity there's a concentration on the politics because for once, there are a few facts sneaking out.
No ifs, no buts...
1. It's not just the top 55,000 houses but those from around £500,000 up who see the Sword of Damocles over their roofs. If you don't believe this go and talk to estate agents in London.
2. Labour become very vulnerable to the charge that if it's £1m now it will be lowered tomorrow.
3. Old Labour's biggest ever blunder was failing to realise how home ownership is beloved of the English. Touch the home at your peril.
4. It's utterly untrue to say that those affected don't vote Labour anyway. You have no evidence for this claim and it is patently untrue. The well-off metropolitan elite are often left-leaning liberal minded: the very people Tony Blair wooed and won.
5. Because a lot of those affected (in the bracket and peering nervously through their letterboxes) are London metropolitan elite they are not simply big businessmen. They are often liberal minded intelligentsia: those with good homes, yes, but who have a social conscience. They are highly influential people who work in television news, newspapers, documentaries, arts, theatre etc. etc. They have a reach well beyond their numbers. And they're not happy.
6. You clearly aren't or haven't been listening to your London Labour MPs http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/02/glenda-jackson-london-labour-mps-opposed-mansion-tax
There are reports that a handful of London Labour MPs are in trouble directly over this. See e.g. http://www.hamhigh.co.uk/news/humanitarian_campaign_launched_to_stop_labour_s_mansion_tax_1_3809207 but also word on the ground suggests this to be the case.
7. As you say, the recent declaration by Jim Murphy that this will pay for Scottish nurses is electoral suicide for London Labour. It's an indication of how the wheels may fall off for Labour in this election.
Finally, to the person mentioning the recent YouGov London poll: what poll? When was this published? The last one I saw was three months back.
Really something to boast about there.
http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/12433/9634837/confirmation-that-there-is-no-korean-grand-prix-on-2015-schedule
Honda are seeing if the rather unfair (although helpful to me, as a Hamilton/Rosberg backer) ruling that every manufacturer but them can develop engines in-season can be overturned:
http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/12479/9634294/mclaren-honda-in-contact-with-the-fia-about-controversial-2015-engine-loophole
I believe that NI and many Scottish hospitals have worse figures too, so not definitely due to Labour either.
A formula which has made them the most successful advertisers on the planet
Now the election is upon us and the volume of posts is rising wouldn't it be a good idea for posters to use the P&G formula thus making their points brief persuasive and undemanding of their audience
I, for one read and post here because it is the best site for detailed political discussion, and does not just trade soundbites and cliches.
5. Because a lot of those affected (in the bracket and peering nervously through their letterboxes) are London metropolitan elite they are not simply big businessmen. They are often liberal minded intelligentsia: those with good homes, yes, but who have a social conscience. They are highly influential people who work in television news, newspapers, documentaries, arts, theatre etc. etc. They have a reach well beyond their numbers. And they're not happy.
Why?
Do these wealthy influential people with a social conscience only want taxes that don't affect them?
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/bedtime-stories-extending-my-thoughts.html
Don't take it too seriously!
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/2015-year-of-two-anniversaries.html
Edited extra bit: and now that the modern history's out of the way, time to get some bloody work done.
In a few weeks time I will add the results from my research in Scotland, which is currently in the field and promises to be particularly fascinating.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/predictions-heres-whole-gallery-snapshots/
There are no upsides to our remaining members of the EU. The words 'unmitigated disaster' are a perfect summary of our membership over the last 40 years.
Exactly what is wrong with politics and politicians. They mean - let's keep it in the news and gain a few votes. A summit about the NHS is needed but you'd have to exclude politicians to have a chance of progress.
Problem 1... We're living longer, getting much more fussy, and medicine is better at keeping us alive.
Problem 2 ... The cost of this is increasing rapidly
Porblem 3 ... Politicians only see this through the lens of party advantage. For example, NICE was a logical idea but can be inconvenient politically; therefore it will be ignored when necessary.
The NHS does need an independent inquiry and options need to presented to the public. We will never have that because of the politics involved.
A British led European Alliance giving the French a good thrashing.