Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the Tories could need to be 10% ahead in England and Wa

13»

Comments

  • Sort on topic, a chap on twitter, has looked at the betting markets, and he's done some very good analysis in a series of tweets this afternoon.

    One thing that he found out, which shocked me, and might be useful if SPIN introduce a 3-2-1 market

    UKIP are favourites in 5 seats but 2nd (or joint 2nd) favourite in 289

    His twitter account is here


    https://twitter.com/MitchellSt/with_replies

    SPIN have never offered such constituency markets, TSE, and they'd be crazy to do so.

    Your best chance is to get Shadsy drunk and get him to take place bets. ;-)
    At the last election, didn't SPIN do a market, where when the big three, got a 3 points for a 1st place finished, 2 points for a second place finish and 1 point for 3rd or lower market.

    So it made betting on total performance across the country.

    Or am I misremembering?
    I certainly don't remember one, TSE, and if it existed I didn't get involved.

    Be wary of SPIN anyway. They seem to be a bit smarter in setting their politics odds these days. I suspect they have a mole here on PB.

    TSE has remembered correctly.

    SPIN did indeed put up such a market, and, even better, they got the prices wrong.

    Oh, happy days!
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    FPT
    Speedy says - ''All that supposed inward investment hasn't produced any growth in manufacturing or exports of goods''

    Huh?
    And without it? Nissan in Sunderland produce 500,000 cars a year. Do we buy them all ourselves?
    Are you trying to say that Indian investment in JLR production has not created jobs and produced massive exports?
    Likewise BMW? Do you realise how many billions they have invested and how much manufacturing they have produced and exports created? Jobs both created and saved?
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-attracts-highest-levels-of-inward-investment-on-record

    And whilst on the topic of previous threads Mr Tyndall will have to try a lot harder if he thinks he can persuade us with his laughable notion that people who point out that a policy is ''Treating Australians and Indians the same'' are being racist because they are somehow mysteriously really saying ''predominantly white Europeans as being more worthy of being allowed into the country than predominantly non white Asians''
    Its a nice try and might raise a laugh, but of course the whole scenario is a bogus one of his invention. I did not 'stop beating my wife' Mr Tyndall - I never started in the first place.
    There is no shortage of Indian immigrants and no shortage of those from the USA or Canada or the ANZAC nations - whatever their colour.
    No doubt if our economy collapses we can manage without any immigrants at all.

    "Huh?
    And without it? Nissan in Sunderland produce 500,000 cars a year. Do we buy them all ourselves?"

    Britain consumes 2.5 million cars per year, car registrations only in the month of October were 172000.
    Britain produces only 1.6 million cars a year.

    The facts remain that Britain has suffered economically being in the EU especially the manufacturing sector, in favour of Germany.
    German manufacturing exports have increased 300% since the 90's while Britain's has declined.
    Our trade deficit with Germany has doubled since 1995.

    http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/stacked/export/gbr/all/show/1995.2012.2/
    http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/stacked/export/deu/all/show/1995.2012.2/

    Now that you've been spanked, never ever again challenge me on the economy without facts.
    For facts are ammunition in arguments that slice through prejudice and stupidity like a hot knife through butter.

    And with that glorious victory, Goodnight.
    post hoc ergo propter hoc
    post hoc ergo propter hoc is quite a sound rule of thumb in lots of cases (man eats weird-looking mushroom, man dies). If the EU hasn't been a major determinant of our macro-economic performance over the last 20 years, wtf is it for?



  • It does, and even if we 'stood alone' we would still have to negotiate deals. I am not sure how you can expect a better deal after walking out of the EU than we could if we simply either stayed in or joined the EEA. Lets be clear - if we just walk out and then re-approach the EU for 'deals' then it seems to me we may be asked to join Schengen.
    In terms of a referendum question I am not sure how you can have 3 options. But those are real options facing us.
    Leaving the EU might be deemed to be still staying in the EEA - I am just guessing that a separate vote would have to be called to leave the EEA as we could be deemed to be separately members of the EEA. That could be left to parliament or another referendum once we know what being in the EEA means.

    Its not clear to me what sort of country we are saying we are or want to be if we are the only significant European country not in the EEA. What is the real issue about renegotiation is the effect of ever closer Eurozone union. In those circumstances are we better off being simply out of the EU and in the EEA? What is the best way to treat our financial services industry?

    No it doesn't. Another outstanding display of ignorance from Flightpath. You really do excel yourself with your lack of knowldege of the EU. Hardly surprising therefore that you are such a lunatic Europhile.

    There are many papers written by senior members of both the EU and EFTA explaining how EFTA members have input into single market decisions covered by the EEA agreement. I suggest you actually go and learn something before spouting your rubbish on here.

    It is true that EFTA members do not have a final say. But what they do have is full involvement in the initiation and drafting of single market legislation and voluntarily a better adherence to the rules than most EU members. Much of the EEA single market legislation is initiated by EFTA members rather than the EU with the view to maintaining a level playing field and ensuring continued EFTA access to EU markets.

    Of course you have no interest in real facts, preferring instead to rely on your own bigoted and outdated ideas.

    Oh and for the record yes, I still maintain that your whole attitude with regard to immigration - and that of the Tory party - is inherently racist since it maintains that an out of work unskilled Latvian is more valuable to the UK than a highly qualified and educated Indian. As long as that remains the case you are continuing to support a bigoted system.
  • Is that your strapline for your anti-Reckless campaign in May?

    My campaign strap line will be

    "Don't be Reckless and go to bed with Nigel and wake up with Ed"

    Well that's the only printable one.
    How about:

    "The Tories are UKIP for pussies"

    :)
  • Sort on topic, a chap on twitter, has looked at the betting markets, and he's done some very good analysis in a series of tweets this afternoon.

    One thing that he found out, which shocked me, and might be useful if SPIN introduce a 3-2-1 market

    UKIP are favourites in 5 seats but 2nd (or joint 2nd) favourite in 289

    His twitter account is here


    https://twitter.com/MitchellSt/with_replies

    SPIN have never offered such constituency markets, TSE, and they'd be crazy to do so.

    Your best chance is to get Shadsy drunk and get him to take place bets. ;-)
    At the last election, didn't SPIN do a market, where when the big three, got a 3 points for a 1st place finished, 2 points for a second place finish and 1 point for 3rd or lower market.

    So it made betting on total performance across the country.

    Or am I misremembering?
    I certainly don't remember one, TSE, and if it existed I didn't get involved.

    Be wary of SPIN anyway. They seem to be a bit smarter in setting their politics odds these days. I suspect they have a mole here on PB.

    TSE has remembered correctly.

    SPIN did indeed put up such a market, and, even better, they got the prices wrong.

    Oh, happy days!
    I have suggested to Mike he asks his SPIN contact to put up a 321 market for this election.

    (Hopefully with the same price mistake)
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Is that your strapline for your anti-Reckless campaign in May?

    My campaign strap line will be

    "Don't be Reckless and go to bed with Nigel and wake up with Ed"

    Well that's the only printable one.
    Only the feckless vote for Reckless.

    Or Vote for Reckless, get de necklace (hat-tip W. Mandela).

  • FPT
    Speedy says - ''All that supposed inward investment hasn't produced any growth in manufacturing or exports of goods''

    Huh?
    And without it? Nissan in Sunderland produce 500,000 cars a year. Do we buy them all ourselves?
    Are you trying to say that Indian investment in JLR production has not created jobs and produced massive exports?
    Likewise BMW? Do you realise how many billions they have invested and how much manufacturing they have produced and exports created? Jobs both created and saved?
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-attracts-highest-levels-of-inward-investment-on-record

    And whilst on the topic of previous threads Mr Tyndall will have to try a lot harder if he thinks he can persuade us with his laughable notion that people who point out that a policy is ''Treating Australians and Indians the same'' are being racist because they are somehow mysteriously really saying ''predominantly white Europeans as being more worthy of being allowed into the country than predominantly non white Asians''
    Its a nice try and might raise a laugh, but of course the whole scenario is a bogus one of his invention. I did not 'stop beating my wife' Mr Tyndall - I never started in the first place.
    There is no shortage of Indian immigrants and no shortage of those from the USA or Canada or the ANZAC nations - whatever their colour.
    No doubt if our economy collapses we can manage without any immigrants at all.

    And yet apparently you support a system that says it should be harder for an Indian to come and work in the UK than a Pole.

    Bigot.
  • I truly struggle to think of anything in Blair's agenda that will stand the test of time as being benefical to the nation. And that's not intended as a party political point.

    - Civil partnerships
    - Academy schools
    - Smoking ban
    - Independent setting of interest rates
    - Pro-business policies
    - Arguably the minimum wage, although the devil is in the detail of what level it is set at (Blair was careful not to set it so high that it would do much damage)

    Of course the other side of the scales is rather heavy. He did enormous damage overall, and even if you're being ultra-kind to him the best you can say is that he squandered those humoungous majorities.
  • Ishmael_X said:

    Is that your strapline for your anti-Reckless campaign in May?

    My campaign strap line will be

    "Don't be Reckless and go to bed with Nigel and wake up with Ed"

    Well that's the only printable one.
    Only the feckless vote for Reckless.

    Or Vote for Reckless, get de necklace (hat-tip W. Mandela).

    I'm tempted to use Reckless' PPE background

    "50% of UKIP MPs are Oxford PPE Graduates, how out of touch can you get as a party!"
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,346

    I truly struggle to think of anything in Blair's agenda that will stand the test of time as being benefical to the nation. And that's not intended as a party political point.

    - Civil partnerships
    - Academy schools
    - Smoking ban
    - Independent setting of interest rates
    - Pro-business policies
    - Arguably the minimum wage, although the devil is in the detail of what level it is set at (Blair was careful not to set it so high that it would do much damage)

    Of course the other side of the scales is rather heavy. He did enormous damage overall, and even if you're being ultra-kind to him the best you can say is that he squandered those humoungous majorities.
    You could add the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly, and some badly needed law reform in Scotland (abolition of feudal tenure and resolution of land access).

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,567
    rcs1000 said:

    The British (owned) car industry was killed by British politicians, and British unions, and British management.

    Rover - and its predecessor companies - died because they produced worse cars than the Germans, the Americans, and the Japanese.

    I designed a briefly popular board game, "Strike!" on the industry 30 years ago, when I co-edited Games and Puzzles magazine:

    http://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/35182/strike

    Roughly from memory, there were four company managements and four unions. Managements had to maximise profits and market share by pricing their cars above the manufacturing cost; unions had to maximise total wages. If a company union was too successful in demanding higher wages their company would have to put prices up and lose market share and the union score would go down. Conversely, an over-pliant union would fail to share in the success of the company. Management had the converse issues. The unions could call strikes, but these would lose victory points for both sides. It was designed to be a balanced simulation, though obviously over-simplified as wages were the only cost factor and there was no overseas competition.

    We asked the Morning Star if they could provide a suitable illustration for the theme - they initially agreed, but later changed their minds, as they felt people might think they were being frivolous. Perish the thought.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    Flightpath I think eventually we will end up in a non-Eurozone EU outer tier with Sweden, Denmark, Poland and Bulgaria, that may eventually merge with the EEA
  • I designed a briefly popular board game, "Strike!" on the industry 30 years ago, when I co-edited Games and Puzzles magazine:

    http://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/35182/strike

    Roughly from memory, there were four company managements and four unions. Managements had to maximise profits and market share by pricing their cars above the manufacturing cost; unions had to maximise total wages. If a company union was too successful in demanding higher wages their company would have to put prices up and lose market share and the union score would go down. Conversely, an over-pliant union would fail to share in the success of the company. Management had the converse issues. The unions could call strikes, but these would lose victory points for both sides. It was designed to be a balanced simulation, though obviously over-simplified as wages were the only cost factor and there was no overseas competition.

    We asked the Morning Star if they could provide a suitable illustration for the theme - they initially agreed, but later changed their minds, as they felt people might think they were being frivolous. Perish the thought.

    Excellent, but it really wasn't like that. The game being played wasn't about selling cars, it was about extorting higher subsidies from the taxpayer. Selling cars was an afterthought, which is why they were so appalling.

    Of course much the same is true of any nationalised industry - education, health etc. 'Give us more money or patients will die!' is unbeatable as a line to promote producer interests.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    The GE is certainly unpredictable but two things seem likely to very likely -

    a) The Tories will get fewer seats than last time
    b) Ukip will fail to make a big breakthrough in terms of seats even if thy get plenty of votes and most of those seats will be at the Tories' expense.

    So I would expect fewer centre right MPs than last time. Quite what situation Lab/LD/SNP will be in is anyone's guess at this stage.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    rcs1000 said:

    The British (owned) car industry was killed by British politicians, and British unions, and British management.

    Rover - and its predecessor companies - died because they produced worse cars than the Germans, the Americans, and the Japanese.

    I designed a briefly popular board game, "Strike!" on the industry 30 years ago, when I co-edited Games and Puzzles magazine:

    http://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/35182/strike

    Roughly from memory, there were four company managements and four unions. Managements had to maximise profits and market share by pricing their cars above the manufacturing cost; unions had to maximise total wages. If a company union was too successful in demanding higher wages their company would have to put prices up and lose market share and the union score would go down. Conversely, an over-pliant union would fail to share in the success of the company. Management had the converse issues. The unions could call strikes, but these would lose victory points for both sides. It was designed to be a balanced simulation, though obviously over-simplified as wages were the only cost factor and there was no overseas competition.

    We asked the Morning Star if they could provide a suitable illustration for the theme - they initially agreed, but later changed their minds, as they felt people might think they were being frivolous. Perish the thought.

    That looks absolutely cracking, any idea where I could get a copy? Would be happy to pay, if you've still got some lying around.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    I see on the front page of The Guardian:

    "Doctors attack plans for 24 / 7 Health Service."

    Am I allowed to attack Doctors or is that not permitted?

    It is fundamentally obvious that we should have a 24 / 7 Health Service. Get off your overpaid backsides and offer the patient a decent service.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Ave it returns for GE2015.

    Happy new year to all posters!

    Ave it will, over the next few months, inform pb with reliable analysis and opinion as we move to GE2015, the most important political event in this country since magna carta.

    Ave it provides these initial Guidelines to GE2015:

    CON is virtually certain to win the popular vote however we (sorry CON) are unlikely to get more than 35%

    LAB will get between 25% and as a max 31%

    LD will get about 12% but will do much better in the seats which they hold. They will however suffer significant losses to LAB in England urban areas and SNP in Scotland.

    SNP will come second to LAB in Scotland. They will get 30% like in 1974 but similarly will win relatively few extra seats. Their main gains will be from LD with maybe 3 or 4 from LAB.

    GREEN will be a bucket for LD protest votes. They will get maybe 8% but may struggle to hold their one seat in Brighton.

    UKIP will win one seat only - Clacton.

    Ave it forecasts that CON will be the biggest party but with a real possibility that nio party gets 300.

  • Ave_it said:

    Ave it returns for GE2015.

    Happy new year to all posters!

    Ave it will, over the next few months, inform pb with reliable analysis and opinion as we move to GE2015, the most important political event in this country since magna carta.

    Ave it provides these initial Guidelines to GE2015:

    CON is virtually certain to win the popular vote however we (sorry CON) are unlikely to get more than 35%

    LAB will get between 25% and as a max 31%

    LD will get about 12% but will do much better in the seats which they hold. They will however suffer significant losses to LAB in England urban areas and SNP in Scotland.

    SNP will come second to LAB in Scotland. They will get 30% like in 1974 but similarly will win relatively few extra seats. Their main gains will be from LD with maybe 3 or 4 from LAB.

    GREEN will be a bucket for LD protest votes. They will get maybe 8% but may struggle to hold their one seat in Brighton.

    UKIP will win one seat only - Clacton.

    Ave it forecasts that CON will be the biggest party but with a real possibility that nio party gets 300.

    Welcome back Old Bean.

    Con gain Bootle though?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    TSE TY

    Er no not hopeful in Bootle.

    Maybe Liverpool Riverside though :)
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Does Ashcroft's marginals polling currently have Labour underperforming on UNS? If they are level pegging with the Tories in England they should be looking at at least 70 seats shouldn't they?
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    rcs1000 said:

    The British (owned) car industry was killed by British politicians, and British unions, and British management.

    Rover - and its predecessor companies - died because they produced worse cars than the Germans, the Americans, and the Japanese.

    Unlike the Germans we have never had a real industrial policy. Labour always pandered to the unions and preferred to fight class wars, the Tories had too many quick-buck supporters and management was hopeless because there was no political culture supporting British industry.

    I'm not in favour of state control generally but consider VW, now one of the biggest car & truck manufacturers. Founded by the Nazis and resurrected by a British army Officer after WW11, it at one time had protection in law from takeover by foreign interests until challenged by the EU. IIRC a large shareholding is owned by the regional government.

  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Ave it will produce reliable national projections of GE2015 from later in January and all the way to 7 May.
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    edited January 2015

    Edin_Rokz said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    FPT

    No doubt if our economy collapses we can manage without any immigrants at all.

    "Huh?
    And without it? Nissan in Sunderland produce 500,000 cars a year. Do we buy them all ourselves?"

    Britain consumes 2.5 million cars per year, car registrations only in the month of October were 172000.
    Britain produces only 1.6 million cars a year.

    The facts remain that Britain has suffered economically being in the EU especially the manufacturing sector, in favour of Germany.
    German manufacturing exports have increased 300% since the 90's while Britain's has declined.
    Our trade deficit with Germany has doubled since 1995.

    http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/stacked/export/gbr/all/show/1995.2012.2/
    http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/stacked/export/deu/all/show/1995.2012.2/

    Now that you've been spanked, never ever again challenge me on the economy without facts.
    For facts are ammunition in arguments that slice through prejudice and stupidity like a hot knife through butter.

    And with that glorious victory, Goodnight.
    post hoc ergo propter hoc
    Like it, had to look up on Google and Wikipedia, but it now goes into my lexicon scrap book.
    Whatever you do, don't google

    Pedicabo ego vos et irrumabo

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catullus_16#Latin_text_and_translation
    OOOH! You are awful! But I like you!

    They certainly didn't have this around when I was learning Latin. And on second thoughts, I think, just possibly, that I may have better things to waste my time on.
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    Edin_Rokz said:

    Edin_Rokz said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    FPT

    No doubt if our economy collapses we can manage without any immigrants at all.

    "Huh?
    And without it? Nissan in Sunderland produce 500,000 cars a year. Do we buy them all ourselves?"

    Britain consumes 2.5 million cars per year, car registrations only in the month of October were 172000.
    Britain produces only 1.6 million cars a year.

    The facts remain that Britain has suffered economically being in the EU especially the manufacturing sector, in favour of Germany.
    German manufacturing exports have increased 300% since the 90's while Britain's has declined.
    Our trade deficit with Germany has doubled since 1995.

    http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/stacked/export/gbr/all/show/1995.2012.2/
    http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/stacked/export/deu/all/show/1995.2012.2/

    Now that you've been spanked, never ever again challenge me on the economy without facts.
    For facts are ammunition in arguments that slice through prejudice and stupidity like a hot knife through butter.

    And with that glorious victory, Goodnight.
    post hoc ergo propter hoc
    Like it, had to look up on Google and Wikipedia, but it now goes into my lexicon scrap book.
    Whatever you do, don't google

    Pedicabo ego vos et irrumabo

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catullus_16#Latin_text_and_translation
    OOOH! You are awful! But I like you!

    They certainly didn't have this around when I was learning Latin. And on second thoughts, I think, just possibly, that I may have better things to waste my time on.
    Perhaps we should be asking B(l)o(w)Jo(b) to decline since he was so edumacated at Eton
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    Just for those too young and innocent to understand:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wkLRZzukcJc
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,567
    Quincel said:



    That looks absolutely cracking, any idea where I could get a copy? Would be happy to pay, if you've still got some lying around.

    It's probably lurking in a packing case somewhere, but it's years since I saw it, sorry! There is a slightly warmer trail in that these three users on boardgamegeek seem to have reported owning it in the last few years:

    http://boardgamegeek.com/collection/items/boardgame/35182?own=1

    - maybe if you asked them they'd send it over (or copy it). Sorry not to be able to help!

    I designed 3 games in all - this one, Their Finest Hour:for the Sinclair Spectrum
    http://www.retrogames.co.uk/007908/Sinclair/Their-Finest-Hour-by-Century
    which got really good reviews, e.g.
    http://www.crashonline.org.uk/26/finesthour.htm
    and I'd like to encourage someone to adapt to a modern console - and The Middle East Peacegame, a simulation for games conventions with a dozen or so players representing Israel, the PLO, Egypt, Syria, Jordan, the USA and Russia in the 1980s. That got played at two or three conventions - as with Strike, the key design element was that you had to cooperate with other people to win but if you overdid it then they would win instead. Every player had a mix of public and secret victory conditions.

    I actually met a gamer on the doorstep recently who greeted me enthusiastically as a longstanding reader of my books etc. - but he wasn't sure he would bother to vote. Too busy playing bloody games, I suppose. Sigh.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Why are English Tories concerned with the welsh NHS.It's Welsh Votes for English Laws for the Tories when it suits them.What right have these English Tories to speak about Wales?
    The Tories should stay in their own country, keep to England and English matters only and keep their noses out of foreign lands they have no authority over.
    Say No to English votes on Welsh laws.
This discussion has been closed.