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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the Tories could need to be 10% ahead in England and Wa

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  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Charles said:

    isam said:



    I tipped up Cannock Chase at 150/1... if that cops (5/2 now) it pays for a few losers

    Bitter old man, cheer up x

    Wouldn't you do better to lay at this point?

    you started at 300/2 and you can lay at, say, 10/2 and crystalise 95% of your potential profit.
    I didn't back it!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Mr. Royale, I'd guess an assumption (until recently correct) that there was nowhere else for such voters to turn. Understandable, but short-sighted and complacent.

    Worth recalling the Western Empire could've seen off all external threats if it hadn't become addicted to regicide and consumed its strength in perpetual civil war. In that regard, Cameron's been a strategic failure, having presided over the splitting of the right.

    The Conservatives could do with an Aurelian to stitch the Empire back together [and it'd help if they don't assassinate him].

    Yes, the respect issue once more. Basically, the modernisers misdiagnosed the problems of the Conservative party's electoral appeal, learnt the wrong lessons from the 1990s New Labour "Project" and, when they applied them, they were already at least 10 years out of date anyway.

    What some Conservative loyalists seem to overlook is that without necessarily changing a single current policy the leadership could have held on to far more of its original voter and activist base simply by listening to them, treating them courteously and with respect, and showing they were on our side.

    But they couldn't because they weren't.
    The so called modernisers had no clue what they were trying to do, They sought a clause 4 moment every month, failing to recognise Blair only threw a few bones to his target audience and one's which would have gone anyway. The Cameroons thought they had to knock the house down rather than do a spot of remodelling.

    New Labour was very successful at radical constitutional, cultural and social change in the UK. Our retrospective tends to focus too much on the economic mood-music but even there although the presentation was centrist the reality was one of greatly increased public spending, just without the taxation to pay for it all.
    Well one could question how successful they were - they left a constitutional mess - but the sad thing Cameron is simply continuing a lot of the policies though at a slower pace. In effect he has consolidated the Blair\Brown settlement and is merely seeking to run it more efficiently.
    HE didn't have the mandate for dramatic change - but in any event the welfare and education reforms (if delivered) are what Blair was aiming at.
  • Sort on topic, a chap on twitter, has looked at the betting markets, and he's done some very good analysis in a series of tweets this afternoon.

    One thing that he found out, which shocked me, and might be useful if SPIN introduce a 3-2-1 market

    UKIP are favourites in 5 seats but 2nd (or joint 2nd) favourite in 289

    His twitter account is here


    https://twitter.com/MitchellSt/with_replies

    SPIN have never offered such constituency markets, TSE, and they'd be crazy to do so.

    Your best chance is to get Shadsy drunk and get him to take place bets. ;-)
    At the last election, didn't SPIN do a market, where when the big three, got a 3 points for a 1st place finished, 2 points for a second place finish and 1 point for 3rd or lower market.

    So it made betting on total performance across the country.

    Or am I misremembering?
    I certainly don't remember one, TSE, and if it existed I didn't get involved.

    Be wary of SPIN anyway. They seem to be a bit smarter in setting their politics odds these days. I suspect they have a mole here on PB.

  • Fazio...
    Ed Miliband.


  • Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 6.26pm
    How come everybody on Twitter seems to be a #Spurs or #Chelsea fan?
  • If I were a Spurs fan, I'd slit my wrists now and die happy before the inevitable happens.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:



    I tipped up Cannock Chase at 150/1... if that cops (5/2 now) it pays for a few losers

    Bitter old man, cheer up x

    Wouldn't you do better to lay at this point?

    you started at 300/2 and you can lay at, say, 10/2 and crystalise 95% of your potential profit.
    I didn't back it!
    So tipping things that you don't have the conviction to back yourself...

    tut tut

    ;)
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    The sad part is this is true pic.twitter.com/YKjfcKjyfF

    — David Jones (@DavidJo52951945) January 1, 2015
  • Sort on topic, a chap on twitter, has looked at the betting markets, and he's done some very good analysis in a series of tweets this afternoon.

    One thing that he found out, which shocked me, and might be useful if SPIN introduce a 3-2-1 market

    UKIP are favourites in 5 seats but 2nd (or joint 2nd) favourite in 289

    His twitter account is here


    https://twitter.com/MitchellSt/with_replies

    SPIN have never offered such constituency markets, TSE, and they'd be crazy to do so.

    Your best chance is to get Shadsy drunk and get him to take place bets. ;-)
    At the last election, didn't SPIN do a market, where when the big three, got a 3 points for a 1st place finished, 2 points for a second place finish and 1 point for 3rd or lower market.

    So it made betting on total performance across the country.

    Or am I misremembering?
    I certainly don't remember one, TSE, and if it existed I didn't get involved.

    Be wary of SPIN anyway. They seem to be a bit smarter in setting their politics odds these days. I suspect they have a mole here on PB.

    I've found it, well Richard N's write up of it.

    http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2010/03/analysing-spin-321-markets.html

    Points are awarded on the following basis:

    3pts for each constituency this party wins;
    2pts for each constituency this party finishes second;
    1pt for each constituency this party finishes third.
    0pts for any other result.

    I do remember it with fondness
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Charles said:

    Mr. Royale, I'd guess an assumption (until recently correct) that there was nowhere else for such voters to turn. Understandable, but short-sighted and complacent.

    Worth recalling the Western Empire could've seen off all external threats if it hadn't become addicted to regicide and consumed its strength in perpetual civil war. In that regard, Cameron's been a strategic failure, having presided over the splitting of the right.

    The Conservatives could do with an Aurelian to stitch the Empire back together [and it'd help if they don't assassinate him].

    Yes, the respect issue once more. Basically, the modernisers misdiagnosed the problems of the Conservative party's electoral appeal, learnt the wrong lessons from the 1990s New Labour "Project" and, when they applied them, they were already at least 10 years out of date anyway.

    What some Conservative loyalists seem to overlook is that without necessarily changing a single current policy the leadership could have held on to far more of its original voter and activist base simply by listening to them, treating them courteously and with respect, and showing they were on our side.

    But they couldn't because they weren't.
    The so called modernisers had no clue what they were trying to do, They sought a clause 4 moment every month, failing to recognise Blair only threw a few bones to his target audience and one's which would have gone anyway. The Cameroons thought they had to knock the house down rather than do a spot of remodelling.

    New Labour was very successful at radical constitutional, cultural and social change in the UK. Our retrospective tends to focus too much on the economic mood-music but even there although the presentation was centrist the reality was one of greatly increased public spending, just without the taxation to pay for it all.
    Well one could question how successful they were - they left a constitutional mess - but the sad thing Cameron is simply continuing a lot of the policies though at a slower pace. In effect he has consolidated the Blair\Brown settlement and is merely seeking to run it more efficiently.
    HE didn't have the mandate for dramatic change - but in any event the welfare and education reforms (if delivered) are what Blair was aiming at.
    You're simply saying he's finishing off Blair's agenda. What happens if you think that agenda is wrong ? Why should a natural conservative vote for a Conservative party implementing a Labour agends ?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:



    I tipped up Cannock Chase at 150/1... if that cops (5/2 now) it pays for a few losers

    Bitter old man, cheer up x

    Wouldn't you do better to lay at this point?

    you started at 300/2 and you can lay at, say, 10/2 and crystalise 95% of your potential profit.
    I didn't back it!
    So tipping things that you don't have the conviction to back yourself...

    tut tut

    ;)
    I thought I was providing a helpful service for people that can still get on with internet bookmakers ;)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,701

    Mr. Royale, I'd guess an assumption (until recently correct) that there was nowhere else for such voters to turn. Understandable, but short-sighted and complacent.

    Worth recalling the Western Empire could've seen off all external threats if it hadn't become addicted

    The Conservatives could do with an Aurelian to stitch the Empire back together [and it'd help if they don't assassinate him].

    Yes, the respect issue once more. Basically, the modernisers misdiagnosed the problems of the Conservative party's electoral appeal, learnt the wrong lessons from the 1990s New Labour "Project" and, when they applied them, they were already at least 10 years out of date anyway.

    What some Conservative loyalists seem to overlook is that without necessarily changing a single current policy the leadership could have held on to far more of its original voter and activist base simply by listening to them, treating them courteously and with respect, and showing they were on our side.

    But they couldn't because they weren't.
    The so called modernisers had no clue what they were trying to do, They sought a clause 4 moment every month, failing to recognise Blair only threw a few bones to his target audience and one's which would have gone anyway. The Cameroons thought they had to knock the house down rather than do a spot of remodelling.

    New Labour was very successful at radical constitutional, cultural and social change in the UK. Our retrospective tends to focus too much on the economic mood-music but even there although the presentation was centrist the reality was one of greatly increased public spending, just without the taxation to pay for it all.
    Well one could question how successful they were - they left a constitutional mess - but the sad thing Cameron is simply continuing a lot of the policies though at a slower pace. In effect he has consolidated the Blair\Brown settlement and is merely seeking to run it more efficiently.
    I agree with you. The constitutional reforms were half-baked, partisan and lop-sided, leading to simmering resentment. Social change more mixed: on the one hand we are more tolerant of different sexual preferences, less judgmental on gender and more accommodating of disability than we were 20 years ago. On the other hand, free speech has been eroded, as has our individual privacy and other state/citizen relationships.

    Culturally, public servants now see it as their job to tell us what to do and how to live our lives, rather than act as our servants. And we have an increasingly fractured society due to the biggest disgrace of all: deliberately encouraging mass immigration as a matter of policy.
  • Sort on topic, a chap on twitter, has looked at the betting markets, and he's done some very good analysis in a series of tweets this afternoon.

    One thing that he found out, which shocked me, and might be useful if SPIN introduce a 3-2-1 market

    UKIP are favourites in 5 seats but 2nd (or joint 2nd) favourite in 289

    His twitter account is here


    https://twitter.com/MitchellSt/with_replies

    SPIN have never offered such constituency markets, TSE, and they'd be crazy to do so.

    Your best chance is to get Shadsy drunk and get him to take place bets. ;-)
    At the last election, didn't SPIN do a market, where when the big three, got a 3 points for a 1st place finished, 2 points for a second place finish and 1 point for 3rd or lower market.

    So it made betting on total performance across the country.

    Or am I misremembering?
    I certainly don't remember one, TSE, and if it existed I didn't get involved.

    Be wary of SPIN anyway. They seem to be a bit smarter in setting their politics odds these days. I suspect they have a mole here on PB.

    I've found it, well Richard N's write up of it.

    http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2010/03/analysing-spin-321-markets.html

    Points are awarded on the following basis:

    3pts for each constituency this party wins;
    2pts for each constituency this party finishes second;
    1pt for each constituency this party finishes third.
    0pts for any other result.

    I do remember it with fondness
    Hmmm.....well I'm glad I didn't use it. Lost enough to SPIN last time round as it was.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758



    You're simply saying he's finishing off Blair's agenda. What happens if you think that agenda is wrong ? Why should a natural conservative vote for a Conservative party implementing a Labour agends ?

    Blair had some good ideas - but didn't implement them or was cockblocked by Brown.

    But tell me: what is wrong with the principle of the education reforms that Gove introduced (an extension of Adonis's plans - back closer to what he originally intended) or IDS's welfare reforms (similar to Field's thoughts, and significantly influenced by Clinton I). What would you prefer to an attempt to inculcate a sense of personal responsibility in the general population?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Mr. Royale, I'd guess an assumption (until recently correct) that there was nowhere else for such voters to turn. Understandable, but short-sighted and complacent.

    Worth recalling the Western Empire could've seen off all external threats if it hadn't become addicted

    The Conservatives could do with an Aurelian to stitch the Empire back together [and it'd help if they don't assassinate him].

    Yes, the respect issue once more. Basically, the modernisers misdiagnosed the problems of them courteously and with respect, and showing they were on our side.

    But they couldn't because they weren't.
    The so called modernisers had no clue what they were trying to do, They sought a clause 4 moment every month, failing to recognise Blair only threw a few bones to his target audience and one's which would have gone anyway. The Cameroons thought they had to knock the house down rather than do a spot of remodelling.

    New Labour was very successful at radical constitutional, cultural and social change in the UK. Our retrospective tends to focus too much on the economic mood-music but even there although the presentation was centrist the reality was one of greatly increased public spending, just without the taxation to pay for it all.
    Well one could question how successful they were - they left a constitutional mess - but the sad thing Cameron is simply continuing a lot of the policies though at a slower pace. In effect he has consolidated the Blair\Brown settlement and is merely seeking to run it more efficiently.
    I agree with you. The constitutional reforms were half-baked, partisan and lop-sided, leading to simmering resentment. Social change more mixed: on the one hand we are more tolerant of different sexual preferences, less judgmental on gender and more accommodating of disability than we were 20 years ago. On the other hand, free speech has been eroded, as has our individual privacy and other state/citizen relationships.

    Culturally, public servants now see it as their job to tell us what to do and how to live our lives, rather than act as our servants. And we have an increasingly fractured society due to the biggest disgrace of all: deliberately encouraging mass immigration as a matter of policy.
    Yes certainly, that second half of your post, that is perhaps the most pernicious bit of Blair's legacy, the increasingly pervasisve state and the passive acceptance that this is somehow in our interests.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    Mr. Royale, I'd guess an assumption (until recently correct) that there was nowhere else for such voters to turn. Understandable, but short-sighted and complacent.

    Worth recalling the Western Empire could've seen off all external threats if it hadn't become addicted

    The Conservatives could do with an Aurelian to stitch the Empire back together [and it'd help if they don't assassinate him].

    Yes, the respect issue once more. Basically, the modernisers misdiagnosed the problems of them courteously and with respect, and showing they were on our side.

    But they couldn't because they weren't.
    The so called modernisers had no clue what they were trying to do, They sought a clause 4 moment every month, failing to recognise Blair only threw a few bones to his target audience and one's which would have gone anyway. The Cameroons thought they had to knock the house down rather than do a spot of remodelling.

    New Labour was very successful at radical constitutional, cultural and social change in the UK. Our retrospective tends to focus too much on the economic mood-music but even there although the presentation was centrist the reality was one of greatly increased public spending, just without the taxation to pay for it all.
    Well one could question how successful they were - they left a constitutional mess - but the sad thing Cameron is simply continuing a lot of the policies though at a slower pace. In effect he has consolidated the Blair\Brown settlement and is merely seeking to run it more efficiently.
    I agree with you. The constitutional reforms were half-baked, partisan and lop-sided, leading to simmering resentment. Social change more mixed: on the one hand we are more tolerant of different sexual preferences, less judgmental on gender and more accommodating of disability than we were 20 years ago. On the other hand, free speech has been eroded, as has our individual privacy and other state/citizen relationships.

    Culturally, public servants now see it as their job to tell us what to do and how to live our lives, rather than act as our servants. And we have an increasingly fractured society due to the biggest disgrace of all: deliberately encouraging mass immigration as a matter of policy.
    Yes certainly, that second half of your post, that is perhaps the most pernicious bit of Blair's legacy, the increasingly pervasisve state and the passive acceptance that this is somehow in our interests.
    I'd second that. Some worrying trends.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    edited January 2015
    Charles said:



    You're simply saying he's finishing off Blair's agenda. What happens if you think that agenda is wrong ? Why should a natural conservative vote for a Conservative party implementing a Labour agends ?

    Blair had some good ideas - but didn't implement them or was cockblocked by Brown.

    But tell me: what is wrong with the principle of the education reforms that Gove introduced (an extension of Adonis's plans - back closer to what he originally intended) or IDS's welfare reforms (similar to Field's thoughts, and significantly influenced by Clinton I). What would you prefer to an attempt to inculcate a sense of personal responsibility in the general population?
    I truly struggle to think of anything in Blair's agenda that will stand the test of time as being benefical to the nation. And that's not intended as a party political point.

    As for your second point the education reforms may be something that prove of long term benefit but need I remind you Gove was politely sacked and IDS reforms are a little slow shall we say, Cameron has ignored economic reform more or less totally, something which should have been his priority from day one. Since 2011 I've been rattling on that Osborne would fail much to the annoyance of the tribal conservative butg as we enter 2015 and the election, the deficit is still huge, living standards have fallen and long overdue reforms still haven't been started.



  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    7 goals so far in the Spurs vs Chelsea match
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Charles said:



    You're simply saying he's finishing off Blair's agenda. What happens if you think that agenda is wrong ? Why should a natural conservative vote for a Conservative party implementing a Labour agends ?

    Blair had some good ideas - but didn't implement them or was cockblocked by Brown.

    But tell me: what is wrong with the principle of the education reforms that Gove introduced (an extension of Adonis's plans - back closer to what he originally intended) or IDS's welfare reforms (similar to Field's thoughts, and significantly influenced by Clinton I). What would you prefer to an attempt to inculcate a sense of personal responsibility in the general population?
    I truly struggle to think of anything in Blair's agenda that will stand the test of time as being benefical to the nation. And that's not intended as a party political point.

    As for your second point the education reforms may be something that prove of long term benefit but need I remind you Gove was politely sacked and IDS reforms are a little slow shall we say, Cameron has ignored economic reform more or less totally, something which should have been his priority from day one. Since 2011 I've been rattling on that Osborne would fail much to the annoyance of the tribal conservative butg as we enter 2015 and the election, the deficit is still huge, living standards have fallen and long overdue reforms still haven't been started.



    Cameron did not respond differently than Ted Heath.
    They both did not want reform or implement much of their pre-election agenda even if those were necessary or popular, out of fear of confirming prejudices about the Tory party.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    Just thinking:

    If Cameron made the referendum question:

    1. Stay in the EU
    2. Have the same status as Norway or Iceland, as member of the EEA, but cease being a member of the EU
    3. Leave the EU, the EEA, and negotiate a separate trade treaty with the EU/EEA

    Should it be AV?

    It would be really quite an exciting campaign, and I think it would also avoid the other serious danger that "out" has, which is that some of the people backing it want (2), some want (3), and some want something else altogether.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    Speedy said:

    Charles said:



    You're simply saying he's finishing off Blair's agenda. What happens if you think that agenda is wrong ? Why should a natural conservative vote for a Conservative party implementing a Labour agends ?

    Blair had some good ideas - but didn't implement them or was cockblocked by Brown.

    But tell me: what is wrong with the principle of the education reforms that Gove introduced (an extension of Adonis's plans - back closer to what he originally intended) or IDS's welfare reforms (similar to Field's thoughts, and significantly influenced by Clinton I). What would you prefer to an attempt to inculcate a sense of personal responsibility in the general population?
    I truly struggle to think of anything in Blair's agenda that will stand the test of time as being benefical to the nation. And that's not intended as a party political point.

    As for your second point the education reforms may be something that prove of long term benefit but need I remind you Gove was politely sacked and IDS reforms are a little slow shall we say, Cameron has ignored economic reform more or less totally, something which should have been his priority from day one. Since 2011 I've been rattling on that Osborne would fail much to the annoyance of the tribal conservative butg as we enter 2015 and the election, the deficit is still huge, living standards have fallen and long overdue reforms still haven't been started.



    Cameron did not respond differently than Ted Heath.
    They both did not want reform or implement much of their pre-election agenda even if those were necessary or popular, out of fear of confirming prejudices about the Tory party.
    Both of them were victims of circumstance too: Heath suffered from Northern Ireland and from the first oil crisis; Cameron got the Eurozone crisis and the Liberal Democrats.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited January 2015
    rcs1000 said:

    Just thinking:

    If Cameron made the referendum question:

    1. Stay in the EU
    2. Have the same status as Norway or Iceland, as member of the EEA, but cease being a member of the EU
    3. Leave the EU, the EEA, and negotiate a separate trade treaty with the EU/EEA

    Should it be AV?

    It would be really quite an exciting campaign, and I think it would also avoid the other serious danger that "out" has, which is that some of the people backing it want (2), some want (3), and some want something else altogether.

    If that were the question then No.2 would win easily, as a third choice that pleases most of those who want to leave the EU and those who want to have similar trade arrangements with the EU as now.

    In theory if it's 40% OUT 30% IN and 30% D/K, with those questions the result I envision would be:
    No.1 20%
    No.2 50%
    No.3 30%
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:



    You're simply saying he's finishing off Blair's agenda. What happens if you think that agenda is wrong ? Why should a natural conservative vote for a Conservative party implementing a Labour agends ?

    Blair had some good ideas - but didn't implement them or was cockblocked by Brown.

    But tell me: what is wrong with the principle of the education reforms that Gove introduced (an extension of Adonis's plans - back closer to what he originally intended) or IDS's welfare reforms (similar to Field's thoughts, and significantly influenced by Clinton I). What would you prefer to an attempt to inculcate a sense of personal responsibility in the general population?
    I truly struggle to think of anything in Blair's agenda that will stand the test of time as being benefical to the nation. And that's not intended as a party political point.

    As for your second point the education reforms may be something that prove of long term benefit but need I remind you Gove was politely sacked and IDS reforms are a little slow shall we say, Cameron has ignored economic reform more or less totally, something which should have been his priority from day one. Since 2011 I've been rattling on that Osborne would fail much to the annoyance of the tribal conservative butg as we enter 2015 and the election, the deficit is still huge, living standards have fallen and long overdue reforms still haven't been started.



    Gove was sacked because he had become the focal point for opposition. If Morgan continues to implement the reforms then that is fine.

    Welfare is slow - hence why I said "principle" as the execution leaves something to be desired. But it is hugely complex.

    On economic reform there has been some progress made: I think they've been too generous on some of the moves that have eroded the tax base. But the patient is out of the ICU and into the CCU, so progress has been made.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just thinking:

    If Cameron made the referendum question:

    1. Stay in the EU
    2. Have the same status as Norway or Iceland, as member of the EEA, but cease being a member of the EU
    3. Leave the EU, the EEA, and negotiate a separate trade treaty with the EU/EEA

    Should it be AV?

    It would be really quite an exciting campaign, and I think it would also avoid the other serious danger that "out" has, which is that some of the people backing it want (2), some want (3), and some want something else altogether.

    If that were the question then No.2 would win easily, as a third choice that pleases most of those who want to leave the EU and those who want to have similar trade arrangements with the EU as now.
    Although EEA membership would not scratch the immigration boil (although it clearly would the "benefits for immigrants" one), as being a member of the EEA means signing up to the four freedoms: of goods, services, capital and labour.
  • Someone wake me up
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited January 2015
    Charles said:

    Charles said:



    You're simply saying he's finishing off Blair's agenda. What happens if you think that agenda is wrong ? Why should a natural conservative vote for a Conservative party implementing a Labour agends ?

    Blair had some good ideas - but didn't implement them or was cockblocked by Brown.

    But tell me: what is wrong with the principle of the education reforms that Gove introduced (an extension of Adonis's plans - back closer to what he originally intended) or IDS's welfare reforms (similar to Field's thoughts, and significantly influenced by Clinton I). What would you prefer to an attempt to inculcate a sense of personal responsibility in the general population?
    I truly struggle to think of anything in Blair's agenda that will stand the test of time as being benefical to the nation. And that's not intended as a party political point.

    As for your second point the education reforms may be something that prove of long term benefit but need I remind you Gove was politely sacked and IDS reforms are a little slow shall we say, Cameron has ignored economic reform more or less totally, something which should have been his priority from day one. Since 2011 I've been rattling on that Osborne would fail much to the annoyance of the tribal conservative butg as we enter 2015 and the election, the deficit is still huge, living standards have fallen and long overdue reforms still haven't been started.



    Gove was sacked because he had become the focal point for opposition. If Morgan continues to implement the reforms then that is fine.

    Welfare is slow - hence why I said "principle" as the execution leaves something to be desired. But it is hugely complex.

    On economic reform there has been some progress made: I think they've been too generous on some of the moves that have eroded the tax base. But the patient is out of the ICU and into the CCU, so progress has been made.
    Vote Conservative for steady incremental progress!

    Funny thing is, people would probably state they'd prefer a message that blunt and honest (if it is true), but in fact would react against anything other than the usual overblown promises.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just thinking:

    If Cameron made the referendum question:

    1. Stay in the EU
    2. Have the same status as Norway or Iceland, as member of the EEA, but cease being a member of the EU
    3. Leave the EU, the EEA, and negotiate a separate trade treaty with the EU/EEA

    Should it be AV?

    It would be really quite an exciting campaign, and I think it would also avoid the other serious danger that "out" has, which is that some of the people backing it want (2), some want (3), and some want something else altogether.

    If that were the question then No.2 would win easily, as a third choice that pleases most of those who want to leave the EU and those who want to have similar trade arrangements with the EU as now.
    Although EEA membership would not scratch the immigration boil (although it clearly would the "benefits for immigrants" one), as being a member of the EEA means signing up to the four freedoms: of goods, services, capital and labour.
    True but it would attract a lot of the OUT voters, since it has a "cease being a member of the EU". So it will attract some IN voters, mostly businessmen who like the present status and some OUT voters and a lot of D/K.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Scrapheap_as_was
    Wake you up? I was going to call for a defibrillator for you before the whistle went.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    I’ve not yet placed any bets at a national level, as there still seems to be too many uncertainties. I’m pretty confident that no party will have a majority – but that’s as far as it goes.

    I’ve focused my betting on William Hill’s SLAB seats market. I’ve build a good position in the 0-20 seats area, I’ll make good profits if SLAB wins 0-5, 6-10, 11-15 and will break even at 16-20 seats. I built most of my 0-5 position at 125/1 (now down to 33/1) and it would pay out £16,000. Realistically though 11-15 seats at 7/1, is probably the best value bet.

    My sense is that the SNP surge still has some way to go and would anticipate SNP levelling out at around 50%. I think SLAB will struggle to hold onto the 20% support level, let alone their current 25%. I don’t think there is anything SLAB can do to turn things around in Scotland by GE2015, so they should just focus on a proper game plan for Holyrood 2016.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    edited January 2015
    Charles said:

    Charles said:



    You're simply saying he's finishing off Blair's agenda. What happens if you think that agenda is wrong ? Why should a natural conservative vote for a Conservative party implementing a Labour agends ?

    Blair had some good ideas - but didn't implement them or was cockblocked by Brown.

    But tell me: what is wrong with the principle of the education reforms that Gove introduced (an extension of Adonis's plans - back closer to what he originally intended) or IDS's welfare reforms (similar to Field's thoughts, and significantly influenced by Clinton I). What would you prefer to an attempt to inculcate a sense of personal responsibility in the general population?
    I truly struggle to think of anything in Blair's agenda that will stand the test of time as being benefical to the nation. And that's not intended as a party political point.

    As for your second point the education reforms may be something that prove of long term benefit but need I remind you Gove was politely sacked and IDS reforms are a little slow shall we say, Cameron has ignored economic reform more or less totally, something which should have been his priority from day one. Since 2011 I've been rattling on that Osborne would fail much to the annoyance of the tribal conservative butg as we enter 2015 and the election, the deficit is still huge, living standards have fallen and long overdue reforms still haven't been started.



    Gove was sacked because he had become the focal point for opposition. If Morgan continues to implement the reforms then that is fine.

    Welfare is slow - hence why I said "principle" as the execution leaves something to be desired. But it is hugely complex.

    On economic reform there has been some progress made: I think they've been too generous on some of the moves that have eroded the tax base. But the patient is out of the ICU and into the CCU, so progress has been made.
    All reform is slow Charles, it's a slow burn issue, which is why Osborne's performance has been such a massive disappointment. In 2011 he passed up on reform and I came to the view he was gutless and would attempt nothing meaningful. I forecast then he would miss his targets and have said so consistently for the last 4 years, he has wasted a Parliament.

    Our tax code is a mess, our banks are still too big to fail and the bonfire od legislation never happened. It's not that there isn't enough to do, it's simply he hasn't done it.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,711
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just thinking:

    If Cameron made the referendum question:

    1. Stay in the EU
    2. Have the same status as Norway or Iceland, as member of the EEA, but cease being a member of the EU
    3. Leave the EU, the EEA, and negotiate a separate trade treaty with the EU/EEA

    Should it be AV?

    It would be really quite an exciting campaign, and I think it would also avoid the other serious danger that "out" has, which is that some of the people backing it want (2), some want (3), and some want something else altogether.

    If that were the question then No.2 would win easily, as a third choice that pleases most of those who want to leave the EU and those who want to have similar trade arrangements with the EU as now.
    Although EEA membership would not scratch the immigration boil (although it clearly would the "benefits for immigrants" one), as being a member of the EEA means signing up to the four freedoms: of goods, services, capital and labour.
    Doesn't this status mean that we would have to more or less do what we were told, without any say in the decision making progress?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited January 2015
    SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    On topic: Mike's logic here seems rather odd to me. Of course it is trivially true, in an arithmetic sense, that, for a given national vote share, if Labour are doing worse in one region they must be doing better in another region. However, if you start from the hypothesis that Labour's vote will collapse in Scotland, it seems to be stretching credulity to assume at the same time that they will do well in England & Wales. If they can't inspire their traditional voters in East Kilbride, can they expect to do so in Tyneside?

    Don't forget that a significant part of the crash in Scotland (in vote share at least) is "catching up" with the crash that has already happened in England.

    In 2010 they got 42% in Scotland vs. c. 30% in England & Wales.
    True, but the point I am getting at is that there seems to be a suggestion that Labour doing badly in Scotland is somehow good news for Labour.
    I think @OGH is in danger of calling this election very wrong.

    It strikes me as he is searching for evidence to support his views rather than building his views on the evidence.
    I think you are right.

    I refer m'learned pb-ers to my prior comment on a recent thread, where Smithson Senior waxed lyrical about "the power of the Labour brand" and how it had saved them from a whipping in the last GE.

    This is what I said (after pointing out that in 2010 Labour got their second lowest voteshare since the GE of 1918):


    More data on "not underestimating the power of the Labour brand", as OGH describes it.

    In 2010 Labour got 8,606,517 votes, and 258 seats.

    In 1997 the Tories got 9,600,943 - a million MORE votes than Labour in 2010 - and just 165 seats.

    If there wasn't such a pro-Labour bias in our electoral system, Labour would have won about 140-180 seats: a truly catastrophic result.

    I'm afraid Our Genial Host is talking utter twaddle. There was no "power" in the Labour brand in 2010."
    You forgot about turnout figures and seat sizes, turnout is down since 1997 and most Labour seats have fewer voters than average and an even lower turnout.
    You should look at the swings not the numbers of voters.
    Though 2015 might change, turnout goes up when the people have a real desire for change.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:



    Gove was sacked because he had become the focal point for opposition. If Morgan continues to implement the reforms then that is fine.

    Welfare is slow - hence why I said "principle" as the execution leaves something to be desired. But it is hugely complex.

    On economic reform there has been some progress made: I think they've been too generous on some of the moves that have eroded the tax base. But the patient is out of the ICU and into the CCU, so progress has been made.

    All reform is slow Charles, it's a slow burn issue, which is why Osborne's performance has been such a massive disappointment. In 2011 he passed up on reform and I came to the view he was gutless and would attempt nothing meaningful. I forecast then he would miss his targets and have said so consistently for the last 4 years, he has wasted a Parliament.

    Our tax code is a mess, our banks are still too big to fail and the bonfire od legislation never happened. It's not that there isn't enough to do, it's simply he hasn't done it.

    The banks were on life support in 2010. I think it was right to delay - but I like what they've done with TSB, I like the concept of Williams & Glynn, I like Aldermore, Shawbrook and Metro. They need to break up the consumer banking oligopoly and they need to split off investment banking. But it needs to be done gradually. If he had started in 2010 he risked putting the system into cardiac arrest (thus, for instance, policies to support house prices: the less of two evils)

    Tax code is a mess, you are right. But I suspect that is a task too complex for any chancellor.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just thinking:

    If Cameron made the referendum question:

    1. Stay in the EU
    2. Have the same status as Norway or Iceland, as member of the EEA, but cease being a member of the EU
    3. Leave the EU, the EEA, and negotiate a separate trade treaty with the EU/EEA

    Should it be AV?

    It would be really quite an exciting campaign, and I think it would also avoid the other serious danger that "out" has, which is that some of the people backing it want (2), some want (3), and some want something else altogether.

    If that were the question then No.2 would win easily, as a third choice that pleases most of those who want to leave the EU and those who want to have similar trade arrangements with the EU as now.
    Although EEA membership would not scratch the immigration boil (although it clearly would the "benefits for immigrants" one), as being a member of the EEA means signing up to the four freedoms: of goods, services, capital and labour.
    Doesn't this status mean that we would have to more or less do what we were told, without any say in the decision making progress?
    It will be like Devo-max.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:


    Vote Conservative for steady incremental progress!

    Funny thing is, people would probably state they'd prefer a message that blunt and honest (if it is true), but in fact would react against anything other than the usual overblown promises.

    The phrase you are looking for is "Reform that ye may preserve!"

    Thomas Babbington Macaulay, March 1831

    http://www.historyhome.co.uk/peel/refact/preserve.htm

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,831
    edited January 2015

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just thinking:

    If Cameron made the referendum question:

    1. Stay in the EU
    2. Have the same status as Norway or Iceland, as member of the EEA, but cease being a member of the EU
    3. Leave the EU, the EEA, and negotiate a separate trade treaty with the EU/EEA

    Should it be AV?

    It would be really quite an exciting campaign, and I think it would also avoid the other serious danger that "out" has, which is that some of the people backing it want (2), some want (3), and some want something else altogether.

    If that were the question then No.2 would win easily, as a third choice that pleases most of those who want to leave the EU and those who want to have similar trade arrangements with the EU as now.
    Although EEA membership would not scratch the immigration boil (although it clearly would the "benefits for immigrants" one), as being a member of the EEA means signing up to the four freedoms: of goods, services, capital and labour.
    Doesn't this status mean that we would have to more or less do what we were told, without any say in the decision making progress?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xU5mOT57ghM

    'The chief anomaly in the EEA – the fact that Norway has to apply EU laws over which it has had no say – is more of a problem in theory than in practice. According to the EU, Norway has had to impose more than 5,000 EU legal acts since 1992. Yet Britain, over the same period, had to apply more than 3,000 every year. And most of the Norwegian directives are technical and trivial: the order in which to list ingredients on a ketchup bottle, the font size on a packet of chewing gum and the like. Implementing these 5,000 directives has required fewer than 100 pieces of primary legislation in the Stortinget.'
    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100194407/outside-the-eu-we-should-aim-to-copy-switzerland-not-norway/
  • Jose not happy.

    POJWAS
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    SeanT said:



    I think you are right.

    I refer m'learned pb-ers to my prior comment on a recent thread, where Smithson Senior waxed lyrical about "the power of the Labour brand" and how it had saved them from a whipping in the last GE.

    [snip]

    I'm afraid Our Genial Host is talking utter twaddle. There was no "power" in the Labour brand in 2010."

    You've got this one wrong, however.

    The power of the brand isn't in votes per se (although - maybe - it help saved them from a worse defeat).

    The impact can be seen in the differential polling between:

    Do you support policy X?
    The Conservative Party has proposed policy X. Do you support it?
    The Labour Party has proposed policy X. Do you support it?

    The Labour brand - in my view unsupported by fact - is viewed consistently more positively than the Tories and the control arm
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    On topic: Mike's logic here seems rather odd to me. Of course it is trivially true, in an arithmetic sense, that, for a given national vote share, if Labour are doing worse in one region they must be doing better in another region. However, if you start from the hypothesis that Labour's vote will collapse in Scotland, it seems to be stretching credulity to assume at the same time that they will do well in England & Wales. If they can't inspire their traditional voters in East Kilbride, can they expect to do so in Tyneside?

    Don't forget that a significant part of the crash in Scotland (in vote share at least) is "catching up" with the crash that has already happened in England.

    In 2010 they got 42% in Scotland vs. c. 30% in England & Wales.
    True, but the point I am getting at is that there seems to be a suggestion that Labour doing badly in Scotland is somehow good news for Labour.
    I think @OGH is in danger of calling this election very wrong.

    It strikes me as he is searching for evidence to support his views rather than building his views on the evidence.
    I think you are right.

    I refer m'learned pb-ers to my prior comment on a recent thread, where Smithson Senior waxed lyrical about "the power of the Labour brand" and how it had saved them from a whipping in the last GE.

    This is what I said (after pointing out that in 2010 Labour got their second lowest voteshare since the GE of 1918):


    More data on "not underestimating the power of the Labour brand", as OGH describes it.

    In 2010 Labour got 8,606,517 votes, and 258 seats.

    In 1997 the Tories got 9,600,943 - a million MORE votes than Labour in 2010 - and just 165 seats.

    If there wasn't such a pro-Labour bias in our electoral system, Labour would have won about 140-180 seats: a truly catastrophic result.

    I'm afraid Our Genial Host is talking utter twaddle. There was no "power" in the Labour brand in 2010."
    Stop posting complete drivel .
    It is completely pointless giving Labour 2010 and Conservative 1997 figures in isolation and comparing the seats got . In 2010 the Conservatives got 10.7 million votes and in 1997 Labour 13.5 million .
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Charles said:

    Charles said:



    Gove was sacked because he had become the focal point for opposition. If Morgan continues to implement the reforms then that is fine.

    Welfare is slow - hence why I said "principle" as the execution leaves something to be desired. But it is hugely complex.

    On economic reform there has been some progress made: I think they've been too generous on some of the moves that have eroded the tax base. But the patient is out of the ICU and into the CCU, so progress has been made.

    All reform is slow Charles, it's a slow burn issue, which is why Osborne's performance has been such a massive disappointment. In 2011 he passed up on reform and I came to the view he was gutless and would attempt nothing meaningful. I forecast then he would miss his targets and have said so consistently for the last 4 years, he has wasted a Parliament.

    Our tax code is a mess, our banks are still too big to fail and the bonfire od legislation never happened. It's not that there isn't enough to do, it's simply he hasn't done it.

    The banks were on life support in 2010. I think it was right to delay - but I like what they've done with TSB, I like the concept of Williams & Glynn, I like Aldermore, Shawbrook and Metro. They need to break up the consumer banking oligopoly and they need to split off investment banking. But it needs to be done gradually. If he had started in 2010 he risked putting the system into cardiac arrest (thus, for instance, policies to support house prices: the less of two evils)

    Tax code is a mess, you are right. But I suspect that is a task too complex for any chancellor.
    well Charles we agree on the problems if not the solutions. I'm afraid I think blues are making too many excuses for their inaction it's one of the disheartening things about Cameronism. Really there are lots of reforms that need to be undertaken and simply putting them off only loses the nation real wealth.

    I(f Cameron had any politcal nous his "detox" would have involved leaving the 50p tax rate in place for this Parliament and whacking a few big time bankers pour encourager les autres, he would have gained more votes.
  • Smarmeron said:

    @Scrapheap_as_was
    Wake you up? I was going to call for a defibrillator for you before the whistle went.

    I nearly popped an extra one of my ramiprils to see me through.....
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:



    You're simply saying he's finishing off Blair's agenda. What happens if you think that agenda is wrong ? Why should a natural conservative vote for a Conservative party implementing a Labour agends ?

    Blair had some good ideas - but didn't implement them or was cockblocked by Brown.

    But tell me: what is wrong with the principle of the education reforms that Gove introduced (an extension of Adonis's plans - back closer to what he originally intended) or IDS's welfare reforms (similar to Field's thoughts, and significantly influenced by Clinton I). What would you prefer to an attempt to inculcate a sense of personal responsibility in the general population?
    I truly struggle to think of anything in Blair's agenda that will stand the test of time as being benefical to the nation. And that's not intended as a party political point.

    As for your second point the education reforms may be something that prove of long term benefit but need I remind you Gove was politely sacked and IDS reforms are a little slow shall we say, Cameron has ignored economic reform more or less totally, something which should have been his priority from day one. Since 2011 I've been rattling on that Osborne would fail much to the annoyance of the tribal conservative butg as we enter 2015 and the election, the deficit is still huge, living standards have fallen and long overdue reforms still haven't been started.



    Gove was sacked because he had become the focal point for opposition. If Morgan continues to implement the reforms then that is fine.

    Welfare is slow - hence why I said "principle" as the execution leaves something to be desired. But it is hugely complex.

    On economic reform there has been some progress made: I think they've been too generous on some of the moves that have eroded the tax base. But the patient is out of the ICU and into the CCU, so progress has been made.
    Vote Conservative for steady incremental progress!

    Funny thing is, people would probably state they'd prefer a message that blunt and honest (if it is true), but in fact would react against anything other than the usual overblown promises.
    That slogan reminds of the episode "The Party Is Over" from The New Statesman, it's basis was for all the parties to try to lose the election, the Tory effort was "Poll Tax was a dreadful mistake, and we like to get rid of it, but we can't think of anything else to put in it's place, so let's try to make the best of it. Vote Conservative", the Labour effort was introducing a budget with an extra 700 billion pounds of spending, and the LD effort was putting a Hitler impersonator to say "We may be lovely chaps, but we don't know how to run a country".
  • SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    On topic: Mike's logic here seems rather odd to me. Of course it is trivially true, in an arithmetic sense, that, for a given national vote share, if Labour are doing worse in one region they must be doing better in another region. However, if you start from the hypothesis that Labour's vote will collapse in Scotland, it seems to be stretching credulity to assume at the same time that they will do well in England & Wales. If they can't inspire their traditional voters in East Kilbride, can they expect to do so in Tyneside?

    Don't forget that a significant part of the crash in Scotland (in vote share at least) is "catching up" with the crash that has already happened in England.

    In 2010 they got 42% in Scotland vs. c. 30% in England & Wales.
    True, but the point I am getting at is that there seems to be a suggestion that Labour doing badly in Scotland is somehow good news for Labour.
    I think @OGH is in danger of calling this election very wrong.

    It strikes me as he is searching for evidence to support his views rather than building his views on the evidence.
    I think you are right.

    I refer m'learned pb-ers to my prior comment on a recent thread, where Smithson Senior waxed lyrical about "the power of the Labour brand" and how it had saved them from a whipping in the last GE.

    This is what I said (after pointing out that in 2010 Labour got their second lowest voteshare since the GE of 1918):


    More data on "not underestimating the power of the Labour brand", as OGH describes it.

    In 2010 Labour got 8,606,517 votes, and 258 seats.

    In 1997 the Tories got 9,600,943 - a million MORE votes than Labour in 2010 - and just 165 seats.

    If there wasn't such a pro-Labour bias in our electoral system, Labour would have won about 140-180 seats: a truly catastrophic result.

    I'm afraid Our Genial Host is talking utter twaddle. There was no "power" in the Labour brand in 2010."
    Mike loathes the Coalition and is desperate for a Lib-Lab alliance in May, which would, in his eyes, constitute for the Lib Dems a kind of atonement. Hence talk of the 'power of the Labour brand' and (in the past) praise of Milliard's supposed political gumption. Miliband is Mike's comfort blanket. He wants him to succeed and save the Lib Dem soul in the process.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    On topic: Mike's logic here seems rather odd to me. Of course it is trivially true, in an arithmetic sense, that, for a given national vote share, if Labour are doing worse in one region they must be doing better in another region. However, if you start from the hypothesis that Labour's vote will collapse in Scotland, it seems to be stretching credulity to assume at the same time that they will do well in England & Wales. If they can't inspire their traditional voters in East Kilbride, can they expect to do so in Tyneside?

    Don't forget that a significant part of the crash in Scotland (in vote share at least) is "catching up" with the crash that has already happened in England.

    In 2010 they got 42% in Scotland vs. c. 30% in England & Wales.
    True, but the point I am getting at is that there seems to be a suggestion that Labour doing badly in Scotland is somehow good news for Labour.
    I think @OGH is in danger of calling this election very wrong.

    It strikes me as he is searching for evidence to support his views rather than building his views on the evidence.
    I think you are right.

    .

    I'm afraid Our Genial Host is talking utter twaddle. There was no "power" in the Labour brand in 2010."
    Stop posting complete drivel .
    It is completely pointless giving Labour 2010 and Conservative 1997 figures in isolation and comparing the seats got . In 2010 the Conservatives got 10.7 million votes and in 1997 Labour 13.5 million .
    Hello you old beach donkey. Care to tell us what you predicted in the AV referendum? Or how you expected Greek GDP to grow faster than the UK's in 2013?

    When you talk about branding - as OGH did - you are talking markets. You are talking about how many people were persuaded to buy your product. Your brand.

    Only eight million people were willing to buy Brown's Labour. A million more people were willing to buy the "hated" Brand Tory under John Major. Labour's branding in 2010 was worse than Major's in 1997. That is all.

    Perhaps a better perspective is that fewer people wanted to keep Labour in power in 2010 than getting rid of the Tories in 1997, which is factually and sentimentally accurate.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:



    Gove was sacked because he had become the focal point for opposition. If Morgan continues to implement the reforms then that is fine.

    Welfare is slow - hence why I said "principle" as the execution leaves something to be desired. But it is hugely complex.

    On economic reform there has been some progress made: I think they've been too generous on some of the moves that have eroded the tax base. But the patient is out of the ICU and into the CCU, so progress has been made.

    All reform is slow Charles, it's a slow burn issue, which is why Osborne's performance has been such a massive disappointment. In 2011 he passed up on reform and I came to the view he was gutless and would attempt nothing meaningful. I forecast then he would miss his targets and have said so consistently for the last 4 years, he has wasted a Parliament.

    Our tax code is a mess, our banks are still too big to fail and the bonfire od legislation never happened. It's not that there isn't enough to do, it's simply he hasn't done it.

    The banks were on life support in 2010. I think it was right to delay - but I like what they've done with TSB, I like the concept of Williams & Glynn, I like Aldermore, Shawbrook and Metro. They need to break up the consumer banking oligopoly and they need to split off investment banking. But it needs to be done gradually. If he had started in 2010 he risked putting the system into cardiac arrest (thus, for instance, policies to support house prices: the less of two evils)

    Tax code is a mess, you are right. But I suspect that is a task too complex for any chancellor.
    well Charles we agree on the problems if not the solutions. I'm afraid I think blues are making too many excuses for their inaction it's one of the disheartening things about Cameronism. Really there are lots of reforms that need to be undertaken and simply putting them off only loses the nation real wealth.

    I(f Cameron had any politcal nous his "detox" would have involved leaving the 50p tax rate in place for this Parliament and whacking a few big time bankers pour encourager les autres, he would have gained more votes.
    He should have left the 50p rate in place, I agree with that.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:



    I think you are right.

    I refer m'learned pb-ers to my prior comment on a recent thread, where Smithson Senior waxed lyrical about "the power of the Labour brand" and how it had saved them from a whipping in the last GE.

    [snip]

    I'm afraid Our Genial Host is talking utter twaddle. There was no "power" in the Labour brand in 2010."

    You've got this one wrong, however.

    The power of the brand isn't in votes per se (although - maybe - it help saved them from a worse defeat).

    The impact can be seen in the differential polling between:

    Do you support policy X?
    The Conservative Party has proposed policy X. Do you support it?
    The Labour Party has proposed policy X. Do you support it?

    The Labour brand - in my view unsupported by fact - is viewed consistently more positively than the Tories and the control arm
    No. I'm right. See my answer downthread.
    No: you are looking at the entire package: brand, personalities and policies.

    OGH and I are trying to isolate the "brand" part of the story.

    An equivalent is considering New Coke/Coke Classic. The best brand in the world can't shift a sh1t product.
  • In other news, Lithuania sells her soul to the Euro effective from today.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Political parties aren't brands, you are deciding who is the most competent to govern the nation and will most personally benefit you, not what you should wash your hair with.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/janetdaley/7436931/David-Cameron-is-selling-a-new-Tory-brand-but-Im-not-buying-it-yet.html
  • FalseFlag said:

    Political parties aren't brands, you are deciding who is the most competent to govern the nation and will most personally benefit you, not what you should wash your hair with.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/janetdaley/7436931/David-Cameron-is-selling-a-new-Tory-brand-but-Im-not-buying-it-yet.html

    "Hi! I'm Dave, and I can save you pounds on your car insurance!"
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Charles said:

    SeanT said:



    I think you are right.

    I refer m'learned pb-ers to my prior comment on a recent thread, where Smithson Senior waxed lyrical about "the power of the Labour brand" and how it had saved them from a whipping in the last GE.

    [snip]

    I'm afraid Our Genial Host is talking utter twaddle. There was no "power" in the Labour brand in 2010."

    You've got this one wrong, however.

    The power of the brand isn't in votes per se (although - maybe - it help saved them from a worse defeat).

    The impact can be seen in the differential polling between:

    Do you support policy X?
    The Conservative Party has proposed policy X. Do you support it?
    The Labour Party has proposed policy X. Do you support it?

    The Labour brand - in my view unsupported by fact - is viewed consistently more positively than the Tories and the control arm
    No the economy stabilised and Mandelson ran a very successful scare the core vote out which had been expanded due to benefits and state employment.

    That differential polling just reflects the nutty inbred hatred of Conservatives the far left have.

    Labour has been suffering a terminal decline since the mid noughties, they are not well regarded.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,831
    Charles said:

    SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:



    I think you are right.

    I refer m'learned pb-ers to my prior comment on a recent thread, where Smithson Senior waxed lyrical about "the power of the Labour brand" and how it had saved them from a whipping in the last GE.

    [snip]

    I'm afraid Our Genial Host is talking utter twaddle. There was no "power" in the Labour brand in 2010."

    You've got this one wrong, however.

    The power of the brand isn't in votes per se (although - maybe - it help saved them from a worse defeat).

    The impact can be seen in the differential polling between:

    Do you support policy X?
    The Conservative Party has proposed policy X. Do you support it?
    The Labour Party has proposed policy X. Do you support it?

    The Labour brand - in my view unsupported by fact - is viewed consistently more positively than the Tories and the control arm
    No. I'm right. See my answer downthread.
    No: you are looking at the entire package: brand, personalities and policies.

    OGH and I are trying to isolate the "brand" part of the story.

    An equivalent is considering New Coke/Coke Classic. The best brand in the world can't shift a sh1t product.
    Of course it can. Consider Socialism. An excellent brand shifting a shit product for over 100 years.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,831
    FalseFlag said:

    Political parties aren't brands, you are deciding who is the most competent to govern the nation and will most personally benefit you, not what you should wash your hair with.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/janetdaley/7436931/David-Cameron-is-selling-a-new-Tory-brand-but-Im-not-buying-it-yet.html

    Everything and everyone is a brand. A brand is just a word in the mind.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:



    I think you are right.

    I refer m'learned pb-ers to my prior comment on a recent thread, where Smithson Senior waxed lyrical about "the power of the Labour brand" and how it had saved them from a whipping in the last GE.

    [snip]

    I'm afraid Our Genial Host is talking utter twaddle. There was no "power" in the Labour brand in 2010."

    You've got this one wrong, however.

    The power of the brand isn't in votes per se (although - maybe - it help saved them from a worse defeat).

    The impact can be seen in the differential polling between:

    Do you support policy X?
    The Conservative Party has proposed policy X. Do you support it?
    The Labour Party has proposed policy X. Do you support it?

    The Labour brand - in my view unsupported by fact - is viewed consistently more positively than the Tories and the control arm
    No. I'm right. See my answer downthread.
    No: you are looking at the entire package: brand, personalities and policies.

    OGH and I are trying to isolate the "brand" part of the story.

    An equivalent is considering New Coke/Coke Classic. The best brand in the world can't shift a sh1t product.
    Of course it can. Consider Socialism. An excellent brand shifting a shit product for over 100 years.
    You can fool some of the people all of the time.

    8m+ people still voted for Brown. But that sort of market share is insufficient in what was then a 2.5+ horse race.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Good Evening PB World.

    The site resolution for 2015 is :

    Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister.

    End of broadcast.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    I hope Farage is undertaking daily blood tests to prove he is going alcohol free for a month.I fear he is denial of his primary addiction of 40+Rothmans a day.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,831
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:



    I think you are right.

    I refer m'learned pb-ers to my prior comment on a recent thread, where Smithson Senior waxed lyrical about "the power of the Labour brand" and how it had saved them from a whipping in the last GE.

    [snip]

    I'm afraid Our Genial Host is talking utter twaddle. There was no "power" in the Labour brand in 2010."

    You've got this one wrong, however.

    The power of the brand isn't in votes per se (although - maybe - it help saved them from a worse defeat).

    The impact can be seen in the differential polling between:

    Do you support policy X?
    The Conservative Party has proposed policy X. Do you support it?
    The Labour Party has proposed policy X. Do you support it?

    The Labour brand - in my view unsupported by fact - is viewed consistently more positively than the Tories and the control arm
    No. I'm right. See my answer downthread.
    No: you are looking at the entire package: brand, personalities and policies.

    OGH and I are trying to isolate the "brand" part of the story.

    An equivalent is considering New Coke/Coke Classic. The best brand in the world can't shift a sh1t product.
    Of course it can. Consider Socialism. An excellent brand shifting a shit product for over 100 years.
    You can fool some of the people all of the time.

    8m+ people still voted for Brown. But that sort of market share is insufficient in what was then a 2.5+ horse race.
    Yes. At any rate, I agree with you (and Mike Smithson) on this -the Labour brand, compared to its competitors, remains an asset.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    FalseFlag said:

    Political parties aren't brands, you are deciding who is the most competent to govern the nation and will most personally benefit you, not what you should wash your hair with.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/janetdaley/7436931/David-Cameron-is-selling-a-new-Tory-brand-but-Im-not-buying-it-yet.html

    That doesn't preclude political parties from having brand identity in the slightest, in fact it makes it worse that the perceived position - moral and political - of a party irrespective of its makeup or actions to some degree, greater or lesser depending on the party, can have a significant if one hopes not decisive impact on electoral outcomes.

    If someone would like or hate a policy but would give a different response depending on which party they found out was proposing it, that clearly demonstrates the impact of a party's brand identity, as you are deciding 'who is the most competent' and 'most personally benefit you' not on the facts - or at least not on facts alone - but on how you feel about that particular party.

    If you can think of a better word than brand for that sort of effect, fair enough, but the effect is there regardless.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited January 2015
    SeanT said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:



    I think you are right.

    I refer m'learned pb-ers to my prior comment on a recent thread, where Smithson Senior waxed lyrical about "the power of the Labour brand" and how it had saved them from a whipping in the last GE.

    [snip]

    I'm afraid Our Genial Host is talking utter twaddle. There was no "power" in the Labour brand in 2010."

    You've got this one wrong, however.

    The power of the brand isn't in votes per se (although - maybe - it help saved them from a worse defeat).

    The impact can be seen in the differential polling between:

    Do you support policy X?
    The Conservative Party has proposed policy X. Do you support it?
    The Labour Party has proposed policy X. Do you support it?

    The Labour brand - in my view unsupported by fact - is viewed consistently more positively than the Tories and the control arm
    No the economy stabilised and Mandelson ran a very successful scare the core vote out which had been expanded due to benefits and state employment.

    That differential polling just reflects the nutty inbred hatred of Conservatives the far left have.

    Labour has been suffering a terminal decline since the mid noughties, they are not well regarded.
    I'm not sure it's terminal, but the decline in the total Labour vote since 1997 is stark, and pronounced:

    1997: 13,516,632
    2001: 10,724,985
    2005: 9,547,944
    2010: 8,606,518

    FIVE MILLION PEOPLE stopped voting Labour (or died) from 1997 to 2010.

    Is Ed Miliband the man to significantly reverse this secular trend? That is the question. Given that they seem to have mislaid at least half a million Scots in the last few months, it's not looking good.

    and the decline in the Conservative vote since 1992 from 14.1 million is almost as stark and I suspect after May 2015 will be even starker
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,346

    As an aside, fast-forwarding a little bit, what will be interesting is the post-mortem. If David Cameron does lose will it be a problem of style, substance, or both?

    If he'd implemented a more robust immigration or European policy, and been seen to believe in it, would that have mitigated against the rise of UKIP? Or if he'd just been more diligent with his party management - courteous and respectful to his party activists and MPs - and less rude to those considering voting UKIP, would that have done the trick?

    I suspect it's a bit of both and, in reality, too many Conservatives ending up concluding he wasn't really on their side.

    Well current Conservatives think Cameron is the dog's dangly bits.

    His approval ratings are positively North Korean.

    My fear is if the Tory party loses in May, they'll revert back to Papua New Guinea-style orgies of cannibalism and chief-killing as the fault line over the EU widens.

    There's a wing of the Tory party that likes to destroy Prime Ministers over the EU, in a few years time they might finally click.

    I suspect if we do have an in/out referendum, and we vote to remain in the EU, the BOOers will emulate the Nat approach, so there's no point trying to appease The BOOers/UKIPers.
    To be fair to PNG folk, not only have they (I believe) stopped ritual cannibalism because of the problem of the human variant of BSE, but it was a mark of respect to the deceased - not quite the metaphor you want to convey I suspect.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    On topic: Mike's logic here seems rather odd to me. Of course it is trivially true, in an arithmetic sense, that, for a given national vote share, if Labour are doing worse in one region they must be doing better in another region. However, if you start from the hypothesis that Labour's vote will collapse in Scotland, it seems to be stretching credulity to assume at the same time that they will do well in England & Wales. If they can't inspire their traditional voters in East Kilbride, can they expect to do so in Tyneside?

    Don't forget that a significant part of the crash in Scotland (in vote share at least) is "catching up" with the crash that has already happened in England.

    In 2010 they got 42% in Scotland vs. c. 30% in England & Wales.
    True, but the point I am getting at is that there seems to be a suggestion that Labour doing badly in Scotland is somehow good news for Labour.
    I think @OGH is in danger of calling this election very wrong.

    It strikes me as he is searching for evidence to support his views rather than building his views on the evidence.

    I'm afraid Our Genial Host is talking utter twaddle. There was no "power" in the Labour brand in 2010."
    Mike loathes the Coalition and is desperate for a Lib-Lab alliance in May, which would, in his eyes, constitute for the Lib Dems a kind of atonement. Hence talk of the 'power of the Labour brand' and (in the past) praise of Milliard's supposed political gumption. Miliband is Mike's comfort blanket. He wants him to succeed and save the Lib Dem soul in the process.
    One of the most intriguing aspects of pb is the way the very brightest people on here can become erratic or deluded, when they are emotionally involved in a political prediction.

    That worries me slightly, as I have solidly predicted a Labour majority for many years, and predicted a Yes win in the IndyRef, despite not desiring the former and being viscerally opposed to the latter. If my Labour prediction goes wrong, either my emotional investment works in reverse and I predict the opposite of what I want and attempt to justify it logically, or I am just an idiot.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just thinking:

    If Cameron made the referendum question:

    1. Stay in the EU
    2. Have the same status as Norway or Iceland, as member of the EEA, but cease being a member of the EU
    3. Leave the EU, the EEA, and negotiate a separate trade treaty with the EU/EEA

    Should it be AV?

    It would be really quite an exciting campaign, and I think it would also avoid the other serious danger that "out" has, which is that some of the people backing it want (2), some want (3), and some want something else altogether.

    If that were the question then No.2 would win easily, as a third choice that pleases most of those who want to leave the EU and those who want to have similar trade arrangements with the EU as now.
    Although EEA membership would not scratch the immigration boil (although it clearly would the "benefits for immigrants" one), as being a member of the EEA means signing up to the four freedoms: of goods, services, capital and labour.
    Doesn't this status mean that we would have to more or less do what we were told, without any say in the decision making progress?
    No it does not. This is the myth perpetrated by those who want us to remain within the EU. The vast majority of EU rules would no longer apply to the UK and those that do involving the four freedoms are decided upon by all of the parties including the EFTA members of the EEA.

    This idea that the EFTA members have no input to the decision making process is utterly false.
  • SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:



    I think you are right.

    I refer m'learned pb-ers to my prior comment on a recent thread, where Smithson Senior waxed lyrical about "the power of the Labour brand" and how it had saved them from a whipping in the last GE.

    [snip]

    I'm afraid Our Genial Host is talking utter twaddle. There was no "power" in the Labour brand in 2010."

    You've got this one wrong, however.

    The power of the brand isn't in votes per se (although - maybe - it help saved them from a worse defeat).

    The impact can be seen in the differential polling between:

    Do you support policy X?
    The Conservative Party has proposed policy X. Do you support it?
    The Labour Party has proposed policy X. Do you support it?

    The Labour brand - in my view unsupported by fact - is viewed consistently more positively than the Tories and the control arm
    No. I'm right. See my answer downthread.
    No: you are looking at the entire package: brand, personalities and policies.

    OGH and I are trying to isolate the "brand" part of the story.

    An equivalent is considering New Coke/Coke Classic. The best brand in the world can't shift a sh1t product.
    Of course it can. Consider Socialism. An excellent brand shifting a shit product for over 100 years.
    You can fool some of the people all of the time.

    8m+ people still voted for Brown. But that sort of market share is insufficient in what was then a 2.5+ horse race.
    Yes. At any rate, I agree with you (and Mike Smithson) on this -the Labour brand, compared to its competitors, remains an asset.
    *bangs head on table*

    And yet the brand did not save them in 2010 from an historically disastrous election, where they got a lower vote, and a lower VOTE SHARE, than the hated Major in 1997.

    That's right, the supposedly loathed, brand-trashed John Major got a bigger SHARE of the vote - 30.5% - than Labour in 2010 - 29%.

    How can that possibly be described as showing the strength of the Labour brand, unless you also admit that the Tories have a surprisingly resilient brand, and everyone has a good brand, and all shall have prizes, and the entire argument becomes embarrassingly meaningless.

    People may say in polls, in various ways, that they prefer "the Labour brand", but the evidence of the last election - which is what we were discussing - implies that when it comes to actually voting, people do not prefer the Labour brand at all.
    Our resident North London Intellectual fails to realise that Labour won nearly 100 (ONE HUNDRED) more seats in 2010 than socialist Johnny won in 1997.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:



    I think you are right.

    I refer m'learned pb-ers to my prior comment on a recent thread, where Smithson Senior waxed lyrical about "the power of the Labour brand" and how it had saved them from a whipping in the last GE.

    [snip]

    I'm afraid Our Genial Host is talking utter twaddle. There was no "power" in the Labour brand in 2010."

    You've got this one wrong, however.

    The power of the brand isn't in votes per se (although - maybe - it help saved them from a worse defeat).

    The impact can be seen in the differential polling between:

    Do you support policy X?
    The Conservative Party has proposed policy X. Do you support it?
    The Labour Party has proposed policy X. Do you support it?

    The Labour brand - in my view unsupported by fact - is viewed consistently more positively than the Tories and the control arm
    No the economy stabilised and Mandelson ran a very successful scare the core vote out which had been expanded due to benefits and state employment.

    That differential polling just reflects the nutty inbred hatred of Conservatives the far left have.

    Labour has been suffering a terminal decline since the mid noughties, they are not well regarded.
    I'm not sure it's terminal, but the decline in the total Labour vote since 1997 is stark, and pronounced:

    1997: 13,516,632
    2001: 10,724,985
    2005: 9,547,944
    2010: 8,606,518

    FIVE MILLION PEOPLE stopped voting Labour (or died) from 1997 to 2010.

    Is Ed Miliband the man to significantly reverse this secular trend? That is the question. Given that they seem to have mislaid at least half a million Scots in the last few months, it's not looking good.

    and the decline in the Conservative vote since 1992 from 14.1 million is almost as stark and I suspect after May 2015 will be even starker
    That might well be true. But it's a different question.
    It's related to turnout.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    SeanT said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:



    I think you are right.

    I refer m'learned pb-ers to my prior comment on a recent thread, where Smithson Senior waxed lyrical about "the power of the Labour brand" and how it had saved them from a whipping in the last GE.

    [snip]

    I'm afraid Our Genial Host is talking utter twaddle. There was no "power" in the Labour brand in 2010."

    You've got this one wrong, however.

    The power of the brand isn't in votes per se (although - maybe - it help saved them from a worse defeat).

    The impact can be seen in the differential polling between:

    Do you support policy X?
    The Conservative Party has proposed policy X. Do you support it?
    The Labour Party has proposed policy X. Do you support it?

    The Labour brand - in my view unsupported by fact - is viewed consistently more positively than the Tories and the control arm
    No the economy stabilised and Mandelson ran a very successful scare the core vote out which had been expanded due to benefits and state employment.

    That differential polling just reflects the nutty inbred hatred of Conservatives the far left have.

    Labour has been suffering a terminal decline since the mid noughties, they are not well regarded.
    I'm not sure it's terminal, but the decline in the total Labour vote since 1997 is stark, and pronounced:

    1997: 13,516,632
    2001: 10,724,985
    2005: 9,547,944
    2010: 8,606,518

    FIVE MILLION PEOPLE stopped voting Labour (or died) from 1997 to 2010.

    Is Ed Miliband the man to significantly reverse this secular trend? That is the question. Given that they seem to have mislaid at least half a million Scots in the last few months, it's not looking good.

    Tory party
    1992: 14.1 million
    1997: 9.6 million
    2001: 8.4 million

    Or should I post votes cast?

    1992: 33.6 million
    1997: 31.3 million
    2001: 26.4 million
    2005: 27.1 million
    2010: 29.7 million
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Why is DODS PoliticsHome, edited by Paul Waugh become more and more like the Guardian on Line?
  • JackW said:

    Good Evening PB World.

    The site resolution for 2015 is :

    Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister.

    End of broadcast.

    Happy New Year Jack - good to see you back.
  • Quiet! All of you! "The Dark Knight" has just started on ITV...
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Economic competence is what matters, thus the Conservatives have the stronger 'brand'.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,831
    edited January 2015
    SeanT said:



    *bangs head on table*

    And yet the brand did not save them in 2010 from an historically disastrous election, where they got a lower vote, and a lower VOTE SHARE, than the hated Major in 1997.

    That's right, the supposedly loathed, brand-trashed John Major got a bigger SHARE of the vote - 30.5% - than Labour in 2010 - 29%.

    How can that possibly be described as showing the strength of the Labour brand, unless you also admit that the Tories have a surprisingly resilient brand, and everyone has a good brand, and all shall have prizes, and the entire argument becomes embarrassingly meaningless.

    People may say in polls, in various ways, that they prefer "the Labour brand", but the evidence of the last election - which is what we were discussing - implies that when it comes to actually voting, people do not prefer the Labour brand at all.

    The success of a brand is measured in its performance relative to its competitors in the category. You don't compare Nike to how well Addidas was doing 10 years ago. The fact that Labour managed to prevent an outright Tory victory despite its cataclysmic economic performance would appear to be, to some extent, a result of the positive associations people had of Labour (and the negative ones that they had of the Tories) trumping the empirical evidence. Branding at work.

    The entire 'category' of mainstream British political parties is now on the wane, and all the main parties with it. However, the fact remains that in that group, 'Labour' performs better as a brand than 'Tory'. I would have thought that was obvious.

  • MikeK said:

    Why is DODS PoliticsHome, edited by Paul Waugh become more and more like the Guardian on Line?

    I'm not aware of the publication to which you refer, but when writing for the London Evening Standard, I recall that Paul Waugh was on the right of the political spectrum.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    MikeK said:

    Why is DODS PoliticsHome, edited by Paul Waugh become more and more like the Guardian on Line?

    I'm not aware of the publication to which you refer, but when writing for the London Evening Standard, I recall that Paul Waugh was on the right of the political spectrum.
    It's http://www.politicshome.com
  • kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    On topic: Mike's logic here seems rather odd to me. Of course it is trivially true, in an arithmetic sense, that, for a given national vote share, if Labour are doing worse in one region they must be doing better in another region. However, if you start from the hypothesis that Labour's vote will collapse in Scotland, it seems to be stretching credulity to assume at the same time that they will do well in England & Wales. If they can't inspire their traditional voters in East Kilbride, can they expect to do so in Tyneside?

    Don't forget that a significant part of the crash in Scotland (in vote share at least) is "catching up" with the crash that has already happened in England.

    In 2010 they got 42% in Scotland vs. c. 30% in England & Wales.
    True, but the point I am getting at is that there seems to be a suggestion that Labour doing badly in Scotland is somehow good news for Labour.
    I think @OGH is in danger of calling this election very wrong.

    It strikes me as he is searching for evidence to support his views rather than building his views on the evidence.

    I'm afraid Our Genial Host is talking utter twaddle. There was no "power" in the Labour brand in 2010."
    Mike loathes the Coalition and is desperate for a Lib-Lab alliance in May, which would, in his eyes, constitute for the Lib Dems a kind of atonement. Hence talk of the 'power of the Labour brand' and (in the past) praise of Milliard's supposed political gumption. Miliband is Mike's comfort blanket. He wants him to succeed and save the Lib Dem soul in the process.
    One of the most intriguing aspects of pb is the way the very brightest people on here can become erratic or deluded, when they are emotionally involved in a political prediction.

    That worries me slightly, as I have solidly predicted a Labour majority for many years, and predicted a Yes win in the IndyRef, despite not desiring the former and being viscerally opposed to the latter. If my Labour prediction goes wrong, either my emotional investment works in reverse and I predict the opposite of what I want and attempt to justify it logically, or I am just an idiot.
    Or you are an unrealised Spurs fan.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    FalseFlag said:

    Economic competence is what matters, thus the Conservatives have the stronger 'brand'.

    In that specific regard. Other aspects of it appear to drag them down relative to the competition though, given the intensity and longevity of many of the negative associations which have persisted long past the point of reason in some instances.
  • I

    LOVE

    2015.

    Full stop.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    FalseFlag said:

    Economic competence is what matters, thus the Conservatives have the stronger 'brand'.

    The Tories led on the economy in 1997. It didn't work too well for them on that occasion.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    justin124 said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Economic competence is what matters, thus the Conservatives have the stronger 'brand'.

    The Tories led on the economy in 1997. It didn't work too well for them on that occasion.
    And the result of that loss in 1997 didn't work out too well for the country.
  • MontyMonty Posts: 346
    Just back from White Hart Lane. Brilliant performance from Spurs. I couldn't be happier. Can't wait for Match of the Day.
    Somebody pinch me.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    FPT
    Speedy says - ''All that supposed inward investment hasn't produced any growth in manufacturing or exports of goods''

    Huh?
    And without it? Nissan in Sunderland produce 500,000 cars a year. Do we buy them all ourselves?
    Are you trying to say that Indian investment in JLR production has not created jobs and produced massive exports?
    Likewise BMW? Do you realise how many billions they have invested and how much manufacturing they have produced and exports created? Jobs both created and saved?
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-attracts-highest-levels-of-inward-investment-on-record

    And whilst on the topic of previous threads Mr Tyndall will have to try a lot harder if he thinks he can persuade us with his laughable notion that people who point out that a policy is ''Treating Australians and Indians the same'' are being racist because they are somehow mysteriously really saying ''predominantly white Europeans as being more worthy of being allowed into the country than predominantly non white Asians''
    Its a nice try and might raise a laugh, but of course the whole scenario is a bogus one of his invention. I did not 'stop beating my wife' Mr Tyndall - I never started in the first place.
    There is no shortage of Indian immigrants and no shortage of those from the USA or Canada or the ANZAC nations - whatever their colour.
    No doubt if our economy collapses we can manage without any immigrants at all.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,962
    edited January 2015
    All you non Liverpool fans will remember him for that slip, but we'll always have Istanbul.

    Steven Gerrard announcing tomorrow that he is to leave Liverpool at the end of the season.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Good Evening PB World.

    The site resolution for 2015 is :

    Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister.

    End of broadcast.

    Happy New Year Jack - good to see you back.
    Thank you pfp.

    A very merry yuletide was had Chez JackW as indeed I hope all PBers similarly enjoyed.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    All you non Liverpool fans will remember him for that slip, but we'll always have Istanbul.

    Steven Gerrard announcing tomorrow that he is to leave Liverpool at the end of the season.

    Came so close to finally winning the league last year, such a shame. I wish him well.

    Good night all.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,701

    SeanT said:



    *bangs head on table*

    And yet the brand did not save them in 2010 from an historically disastrous election, where they got a lower vote, and a lower VOTE SHARE, than the hated Major in 1997.

    That's right, the supposedly loathed, brand-trashed John Major got a bigger SHARE of the vote - 30.5% - than Labour in 2010 - 29%.

    How can that possibly be described as showing the strength of the Labour brand, unless you also admit that the Tories have a surprisingly resilient brand, and everyone has a good brand, and all shall have prizes, and the entire argument becomes embarrassingly meaningless.

    People may say in polls, in various ways, that they prefer "the Labour brand", but the evidence of the last election - which is what we were discussing - implies that when it comes to actually voting, people do not prefer the Labour brand at all.

    The success of a brand is measured in its performance relative to its competitors in the category. You don't compare Nike to how well Addidas was doing 10 years ago. The fact that Labour managed to prevent an outright Tory victory despite its cataclysmic economic performance would appear to be, to some extent, a result of the positive associations people had of Labour (and the negative ones that they had of the Tories) trumping the empirical evidence. Branding at work.

    The entire 'category' of mainstream British political parties is now on the wane, and all the main parties with it. However, the fact remains that in that group, 'Labour' performs better as a brand than 'Tory'. I would have thought that was obvious.

    Labour managed to retain about 20 seats more than they were expected to, and the Conservative GB poll share was about 2-3% lower than expected, denying the Conservatives a slim overall majority.

    London and Scotland were particular disappointments. But Labour also did well to hold on to places like Southampton, Exeter and all the Birmingham seats.

    All of that was probably due to the misfiring Conservative campaign that repeatedly shot itself in the foot from January 2010 onwards, and an increasingly professional Labour rearguard action coordinated by Peter Mandelson.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012


    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just thinking:

    If Cameron made the referendum question:

    1. Stay in the EU
    2. Have the same status as Norway or Iceland, as member of the EEA, but cease being a member of the EU
    3. Leave the EU, the EEA, and negotiate a separate trade treaty with the EU/EEA

    Should it be AV?

    It would be really quite an exciting campaign, and I think it would also avoid the other serious danger that "out" has, which is that some of the people backing it want (2), some want (3), and some want something else altogether.

    If that were the question then No.2 would win easily, as a third choice that pleases most of those who want to leave the EU and those who want to have similar trade arrangements with the EU as now.
    Although EEA membership would not scratch the immigration boil (although it clearly would the "benefits for immigrants" one), as being a member of the EEA means signing up to the four freedoms: of goods, services, capital and labour.
    Doesn't this status mean that we would have to more or less do what we were told, without any say in the decision making progress?
    It does, and even if we 'stood alone' we would still have to negotiate deals. I am not sure how you can expect a better deal after walking out of the EU than we could if we simply either stayed in or joined the EEA. Lets be clear - if we just walk out and then re-approach the EU for 'deals' then it seems to me we may be asked to join Schengen.
    In terms of a referendum question I am not sure how you can have 3 options. But those are real options facing us.
    Leaving the EU might be deemed to be still staying in the EEA - I am just guessing that a separate vote would have to be called to leave the EEA as we could be deemed to be separately members of the EEA. That could be left to parliament or another referendum once we know what being in the EEA means.

    Its not clear to me what sort of country we are saying we are or want to be if we are the only significant European country not in the EEA. What is the real issue about renegotiation is the effect of ever closer Eurozone union. In those circumstances are we better off being simply out of the EU and in the EEA? What is the best way to treat our financial services industry?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited January 2015

    FPT
    Speedy says - ''All that supposed inward investment hasn't produced any growth in manufacturing or exports of goods''

    Huh?
    And without it? Nissan in Sunderland produce 500,000 cars a year. Do we buy them all ourselves?
    Are you trying to say that Indian investment in JLR production has not created jobs and produced massive exports?
    Likewise BMW? Do you realise how many billions they have invested and how much manufacturing they have produced and exports created? Jobs both created and saved?
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-attracts-highest-levels-of-inward-investment-on-record

    And whilst on the topic of previous threads Mr Tyndall will have to try a lot harder if he thinks he can persuade us with his laughable notion that people who point out that a policy is ''Treating Australians and Indians the same'' are being racist because they are somehow mysteriously really saying ''predominantly white Europeans as being more worthy of being allowed into the country than predominantly non white Asians''
    Its a nice try and might raise a laugh, but of course the whole scenario is a bogus one of his invention. I did not 'stop beating my wife' Mr Tyndall - I never started in the first place.
    There is no shortage of Indian immigrants and no shortage of those from the USA or Canada or the ANZAC nations - whatever their colour.
    No doubt if our economy collapses we can manage without any immigrants at all.

    "Huh?
    And without it? Nissan in Sunderland produce 500,000 cars a year. Do we buy them all ourselves?"

    Britain consumes 2.5 million cars per year, car registrations only in the month of October were 172000.
    Britain produces only 1.6 million cars a year.

    The facts remain that Britain has suffered economically being in the EU especially the manufacturing sector, in favour of Germany.
    German manufacturing exports have increased 300% since the 90's while Britain's has declined.
    Our trade deficit with Germany has doubled since 1995.

    http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/stacked/export/gbr/all/show/1995.2012.2/
    http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/stacked/export/deu/all/show/1995.2012.2/

    Now that you've been spanked, never ever again challenge me on the economy without facts.
    For facts are ammunition in arguments that slice through prejudice and stupidity like a hot knife through butter.

    And with that glorious victory, Goodnight.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    Speedy said:

    FPT
    Speedy says - ''All that supposed inward investment hasn't produced any growth in manufacturing or exports of goods''

    Huh?
    And without it? Nissan in Sunderland produce 500,000 cars a year. Do we buy them all ourselves?
    Are you trying to say that Indian investment in JLR production has not created jobs and produced massive exports?
    Likewise BMW? Do you realise how many billions they have invested and how much manufacturing they have produced and exports created? Jobs both created and saved?
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-attracts-highest-levels-of-inward-investment-on-record

    And whilst on the topic of previous threads Mr Tyndall will have to try a lot harder if he thinks he can persuade us with his laughable notion that people who point out that a policy is ''Treating Australians and Indians the same'' are being racist because they are somehow mysteriously really saying ''predominantly white Europeans as being more worthy of being allowed into the country than predominantly non white Asians''
    Its a nice try and might raise a laugh, but of course the whole scenario is a bogus one of his invention. I did not 'stop beating my wife' Mr Tyndall - I never started in the first place.
    There is no shortage of Indian immigrants and no shortage of those from the USA or Canada or the ANZAC nations - whatever their colour.
    No doubt if our economy collapses we can manage without any immigrants at all.

    "Huh?
    And without it? Nissan in Sunderland produce 500,000 cars a year. Do we buy them all ourselves?"

    Britain consumes 2.5 million cars per year, car registrations only in the month of October were 172000.
    Britain produces only 1.6 million cars a year.

    The facts remain that Britain has suffered economically being in the EU especially the manufacturing sector, in favour of Germany.
    German manufacturing exports have increased 300% since the 90's while Britain's has declined.
    Our trade deficit with Germany has doubled since 1995.

    http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/stacked/export/gbr/all/show/1995.2012.2/
    http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/stacked/export/deu/all/show/1995.2012.2/

    Now that you've been spanked, never ever again challenge me on the economy without facts.
    For facts are ammunition in arguments that slice through prejudice and stupidity like a hot knife through butter.

    And with that glorious victory, Goodnight.
    post hoc ergo propter hoc
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    Home ownership in Britain set to fall behind France to 64%, below the EU average of 70%, with only Germany and Austria clearly lower of EU states
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2893463/Home-ownership-Britain-set-fall-France-buy-let-surge-pushes-families-rented-properties.html
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    Home ownership in Britain set to fall behind France to 64%, below the EU average of 70%, with only Germany and Austria clearly lower of EU states
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2893463/Home-ownership-Britain-set-fall-France-buy-let-surge-pushes-families-rented-properties.html

    Not surprising when you almost have to be a millionaire to own a house in London or the south-east.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,567
    When do we expect the poll famine to be broken, so we can stop arguing about what we speculate is happening and argue about what is actually happening? Subtle difference. Sunday, I guess?

    Idle prediction: the first few will be back to a near-tie.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    The British (owned) car industry was killed by British politicians, and British unions, and British management.

    Rover - and its predecessor companies - died because they produced worse cars than the Germans, the Americans, and the Japanese.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2015
    2005: Labour won 356 seats with 9.5 million votes and an overall majority of 66.

    2010: the Conservatives won 306 seats with 10.7 million votes and were 20 seats short of an overall majority.
    SeanT said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:



    I think you are right.

    I refer m'learned pb-ers to my prior comment on a recent thread, where Smithson Senior waxed lyrical about "the power of the Labour brand" and how it had saved them from a whipping in the last GE.

    [snip]

    I'm afraid Our Genial Host is talking utter twaddle. There was no "power" in the Labour brand in 2010."

    You've got this one wrong, however.

    The power of the brand isn't in votes per se (although - maybe - it help saved them from a worse defeat).

    The impact can be seen in the differential polling between:

    Do you support policy X?
    The Conservative Party has proposed policy X. Do you support it?
    The Labour Party has proposed policy X. Do you support it?

    The Labour brand - in my view unsupported by fact - is viewed consistently more positively than the Tories and the control arm
    No the economy stabilised and Mandelson ran a very successful scare the core vote out which had been expanded due to benefits and state employment.

    That differential polling just reflects the nutty inbred hatred of Conservatives the far left have.

    Labour has been suffering a terminal decline since the mid noughties, they are not well regarded.
    I'm not sure it's terminal, but the decline in the total Labour vote since 1997 is stark, and pronounced:

    1997: 13,516,632
    2001: 10,724,985
    2005: 9,547,944
    2010: 8,606,518

    FIVE MILLION PEOPLE stopped voting Labour (or died) from 1997 to 2010.

    Is Ed Miliband the man to significantly reverse this secular trend? That is the question. Given that they seem to have mislaid at least half a million Scots in the last few months, it's not looking good.

  • When do we expect the poll famine to be broken, so we can stop arguing about what we speculate is happening and argue about what is actually happening? Subtle difference. Sunday, I guess?

    Idle prediction: the first few will be back to a near-tie.

    We could get an Opinium on Saturday night.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,701
    It just occurred to me that Twisted Films may want to update their Downfall film in time for May, when it is likely to be even more apt: http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=iMi776jah1w
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    FPT
    Speedy says - ''All that supposed inward investment hasn't produced any growth in manufacturing or exports of goods''

    Huh?
    And without it? Nissan in Sunderland produce 500,000 cars a year. Do we buy them all ourselves?
    Are you trying to say that Indian investment in JLR production has not created jobs and produced massive exports?
    Likewise BMW? Do you realise how many billions they have invested and how much manufacturing they have produced and exports created? Jobs both created and saved?
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-attracts-highest-levels-of-inward-investment-on-record

    And whilst on the topic of previous threads Mr Tyndall will have to try a lot harder if he thinks he can persuade us with his laughable notion that people who point out that a policy is ''Treating Australians and Indians the same'' are being racist because they are somehow mysteriously really saying ''predominantly white Europeans as being more worthy of being allowed into the country than predominantly non white Asians''
    Its a nice try and might raise a laugh, but of course the whole scenario is a bogus one of his invention. I did not 'stop beating my wife' Mr Tyndall - I never started in the first place.
    There is no shortage of Indian immigrants and no shortage of those from the USA or Canada or the ANZAC nations - whatever their colour.
    No doubt if our economy collapses we can manage without any immigrants at all.

    "Huh?
    And without it? Nissan in Sunderland produce 500,000 cars a year. Do we buy them all ourselves?"

    Britain consumes 2.5 million cars per year, car registrations only in the month of October were 172000.
    Britain produces only 1.6 million cars a year.

    The facts remain that Britain has suffered economically being in the EU especially the manufacturing sector, in favour of Germany.
    German manufacturing exports have increased 300% since the 90's while Britain's has declined.
    Our trade deficit with Germany has doubled since 1995.

    http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/stacked/export/gbr/all/show/1995.2012.2/
    http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/stacked/export/deu/all/show/1995.2012.2/

    Now that you've been spanked, never ever again challenge me on the economy without facts.
    For facts are ammunition in arguments that slice through prejudice and stupidity like a hot knife through butter.

    And with that glorious victory, Goodnight.
    post hoc ergo propter hoc
    Like it, had to look up on Google and Wikipedia, but it now goes into my lexicon scrap book.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    Lithuania becomes the last Baltic nation to join the euro
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30635826
  • Edin_Rokz said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    FPT
    Speedy says - ''All that supposed inward investment hasn't produced any growth in manufacturing or exports of goods''

    Huh?
    And without it? Nissan in Sunderland produce 500,000 cars a year. Do we buy them all ourselves?
    Are you trying to say that Indian investment in JLR production has not created jobs and produced massive exports?
    Likewise BMW? Do you realise how many billions they have invested and how much manufacturing they have produced and exports created? Jobs both created and saved?
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-attracts-highest-levels-of-inward-investment-on-record

    And whilst on the topic of previous threads Mr Tyndall will have to try a lot harder if he thinks he can persuade us with his laughable notion that people who point out that a policy is ''Treating Australians and Indians the same'' are being racist because they are somehow mysteriously really saying ''predominantly white Europeans as being more worthy of being allowed into the country than predominantly non white Asians''
    Its a nice try and might raise a laugh, but of course the whole scenario is a bogus one of his invention. I did not 'stop beating my wife' Mr Tyndall - I never started in the first place.
    There is no shortage of Indian immigrants and no shortage of those from the USA or Canada or the ANZAC nations - whatever their colour.
    No doubt if our economy collapses we can manage without any immigrants at all.

    "Huh?
    And without it? Nissan in Sunderland produce 500,000 cars a year. Do we buy them all ourselves?"

    Britain consumes 2.5 million cars per year, car registrations only in the month of October were 172000.
    Britain produces only 1.6 million cars a year.

    The facts remain that Britain has suffered economically being in the EU especially the manufacturing sector, in favour of Germany.
    German manufacturing exports have increased 300% since the 90's while Britain's has declined.
    Our trade deficit with Germany has doubled since 1995.

    http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/stacked/export/gbr/all/show/1995.2012.2/
    http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/stacked/export/deu/all/show/1995.2012.2/

    Now that you've been spanked, never ever again challenge me on the economy without facts.
    For facts are ammunition in arguments that slice through prejudice and stupidity like a hot knife through butter.

    And with that glorious victory, Goodnight.
    post hoc ergo propter hoc
    Like it, had to look up on Google and Wikipedia, but it now goes into my lexicon scrap book.
    Whatever you do, don't google

    Pedicabo ego vos et irrumabo

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catullus_16#Latin_text_and_translation
  • The Times:

    Prediction: Ed Miliband becomes prime minister of an unstable government. Second general election within a year.
    Sam Coates
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    Andy JS Indeed, the recent trend of thirty year old couples moving to Birmingham and the Midlands does not look like being the last
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,701

    Edin_Rokz said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    FPT
    Speedy says - ''All that supposed inward investment hasn't produced any growth in manufacturing or exports of goods''

    Huh?
    And without it? Nissan in Sunderland produce 500,000 cars a year. Do we buy them all ourselves?
    Are you trying to say that Indian investment in JLR production has not created jobs and produced massive exports?
    Likewise BMW? Do you realise how many billions they have invested and how much manufacturing they have produced and exports created? Jobs both created and saved?
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-attracts-highest-levels-of-inward-investment-on-record

    And whilst on the topic of previous threads Mr Tyndall will have to try a lot harder if he thinks he can persuade us with his laughable notion that people who point out that a policy is ''Treating Australians and Indians the same'' are being racist because they are somehow mysteriously really saying ''predominantly white Europeans as being more worthy of being allowed into the country than predominantly non white Asians''
    Its a nice try and might raise a laugh, but of course the whole scenario is a bogus one of his invention. I did not 'stop beating my wife' Mr Tyndall - I never started in the first place.
    There is no shortage of Indian immigrants and no shortage of those from the USA or Canada or the ANZAC nations - whatever their colour.
    No doubt if our economy collapses we can manage without any immigrants at all.

    "Huh?
    And without it? Nissan in Sunderland produce 500,000 cars a year. Do we buy them all ourselves?"

    Britain consumes 2.5 million cars per year, car registrations only in the month of October were 172000.
    Britain produces only 1.6 million cars a year.

    The facts remain that Britain has suffered economically being in the EU especially the manufacturing sector
    German manufacturing exports have increased 300% since the 90's while Britain's has declined.
    Our trade deficit with Germany has doubled since 1995.

    http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/stacked/export/gbr/all/show/1995.2012.2/
    http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/stacked/export/deu/all/show/1995.2012.2/

    Now that you've been spanked, never ever again challenge me on the economy without facts.
    For facts are ammunition in arguments that slice through prejudice and stupidity like a hot knife through butter.

    And with that glorious victory, Goodnight.
    post hoc ergo propter hoc
    Like it, had to look up on Google and Wikipedia, but it now goes into my lexicon scrap book.
    Whatever you do, don't google

    Pedicabo ego vos et irrumabo

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catullus_16#Latin_text_and_translation
    Is that your strapline for your anti-Reckless campaign in May?
  • rcs1000 said:



    post hoc ergo propter hoc

    Actually no. In this case Speedy is quite right.

    Our trade balance - and more importantly our overall balance of payments - with the countries of the EEC/EU switched from positive to negative straight after we joined the EEC and with the exception of one year when we had outstanding oil exports it has remained negative ever since. During the same period our trade balance with the rest of the world has remained steady or improved and overall is almost always in positive territory. It is our trade within the so called free market which gives us such a massive balance of payments deficit.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,962
    edited January 2015

    Is that your strapline for your anti-Reckless campaign in May?

    My campaign strap line will be

    "Don't be Reckless and go to bed with Nigel and wake up with Ed"

    Well that's the only printable one.
This discussion has been closed.