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  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989

    Mr. Putney, no cheating: who was crowned on Christmas Day 800AD?

    Well that's too easy so I'm going to pass on that. Indeed, the division of his territories between his sons basically shaped much of western Europe's political geography.

    On the "violent society" question, I assume we would all pay for protection under Contract to the local Warlord or similar whose thugs would patrol the streets and be particularly harsh to strangers. You'd have to carry some form of identification so the thugs knew you were "one of them". Might not stop you getting beaten up yourself but presumably there would be severe penalties for any of the "peacekeepers" attacking someone who had paid for their protection.

    If you moved to another area, you'd pay a "joining fee" for the protection in that area.


  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @SimonStClare
    "BBC reporting that “the rouble has lost more than 50% against the US dollar this year"

    Cheaper Kalashnikovs?
  • Incidentally, at around 2pm or thereabouts Jeff Richards, the chap who edited Malevolence: Tales from Beyond the Veil [anthology to which I contributed the short story Saxon & Khan] and who wrote the forthcoming Indigo Heartfire book, will be on BBC Radio Surrey/Sussex, discussing them.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Farage Fibs

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/12/exclusive-mrs-farage-is-still-paid-for-by-public-sector-despite-gogglebox-denial/

    "Ukip has confirmed this morning that Nigel Farage’s wife is still in receipt of public money — despite an on air denial from her husband. "

    You mean Farage lied? Say it ain't so, he represents new politics who are sick of the lies of the LibLabCons
    Looks like he has no idea who his wife works for or how much she gets paid.

    Like his manifesto he is clueless to what reality is - still off down the pub for a pint eh ?
    There may be something in what you say about him being clueless about reality. I have been wondering about just what goes on inside his head for a little while now.
  • Mr. Stodge, you say it's too easy, but not everyone is as well-versed in modern history as you.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited December 2014
    TGOHF said:

    Patrick said:

    Bloody hell! Check out the Russian Rouble today. 80 to the dollar. An astonishing collapse that may not end well for anyone.

    So either Putin doesn't WANT to use his mahoosive foreign reserves to prop up the currency or those reserves er... maybe dont ... nah surely not ?
    The correct answer is that it is clearly the fault of the US for unsustainably inflating the value of the dollar.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    TGOHF said:

    Patrick said:

    Bloody hell! Check out the Russian Rouble today. 80 to the dollar. An astonishing collapse that may not end well for anyone.

    So either Putin doesn't WANT to use his mahoosive foreign reserves to prop up the currency or those reserves er... maybe dont ... nah surely not ?
    Those foreign exchange reserves are probably in the bank accounts of Putin's mates.
  • The whiz kid who made 72 million dollars in his lunchtime was a complete hoax.
  • EddieEddie Posts: 34
    How can ComRes show the Greens at 2% in one poll and two days later show them at 5%? Do they actually do any fieldwork? Or do they just make up the figures?
  • Eddie said:

    How can ComRes show the Greens at 2% in one poll and two days later show them at 5%? Do they actually do any fieldwork? Or do they just make up the figures?

    Differing methodologies produce different results
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,709
    stodge said:

    Mr. Putney, no cheating: who was crowned on Christmas Day 800AD?

    Well that's too easy so I'm going to pass on that. Indeed, the division of his territories between his sons basically shaped much of western Europe's political geography.

    On the "violent society" question, I assume we would all pay for protection under Contract to the local Warlord or similar whose thugs would patrol the streets and be particularly harsh to strangers. You'd have to carry some form of identification so the thugs knew you were "one of them". Might not stop you getting beaten up yourself but presumably there would be severe penalties for any of the "peacekeepers" attacking someone who had paid for their protection.

    If you moved to another area, you'd pay a "joining fee" for the protection in that area.


    Wasn’t that, until relatively recently, the situation in the Scotiish Highlands & Islands?
  • EddieEddie Posts: 34

    Eddie said:

    How can ComRes show the Greens at 2% in one poll and two days later show them at 5%? Do they actually do any fieldwork? Or do they just make up the figures?

    Differing methodologies produce different results
    Okay, but how do these polls two days apart from the same polling company have any credibility?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    That is a new and fresh reason: we should ignore polls just because they show Labour in the lead.

    Or is it, Osborne's "clever by half" Autumn Statement has gone down like a lead balloon.

    The trouble is that if you aim your giveaway's to people who are already voting for you, you don't gain too many votes !
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Can anyone explain this. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-16/usdrub-pair-will-be-discontinued-due-recent-instability-russian-ruble

    Sounds simple, but I'm not an FX trader. Can the US regulator just do that? What happens at other exchanges around the world?
  • Eddie said:

    Eddie said:

    How can ComRes show the Greens at 2% in one poll and two days later show them at 5%? Do they actually do any fieldwork? Or do they just make up the figures?

    Differing methodologies produce different results
    Okay, but how do these polls two days apart from the same polling company have any credibility?
    Because they do.

    A poll shift from 2% to 5% is within the margin of error.

    But as I said, they are different polls with different methodologies, so you really shouldn't compare the two.

    For example it silly to compare the ICM Wisdom Index with the ICM phone poll.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2014
    Quite good head to head on Daily Politics, Heseltine vs Carswell

    JoCo "Do you think Douglas Carswell could ever be tempted back to the Conservative Party?"
    LH "I hope not"
    DC "We agree on much, including that"
    JoCo "In terms of the Conservative Party, do you think Europe will eventually split the party?"
    LH "No. The Tory party is an immensely sophisticated political force. It is the most successful democratic organisation in human history..."
    DC "It hasn't won an election since 1992"
    LH ".. and it has an enormous sense of..."
    DC "entitlement"
    LH "...survival"
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    All Governments decry inflation

    Not in Japan, causing inflation is the main policy that the government just got re-elected on.
    With the debts we've got we should be aiming for nominal GDP growth of 5%. Apparently inflation has dropped to 1% with the oil drop. I'm no expert but there's an idea called helicopter money. Last resort and all.
    You are right. The problem with low inflation is that it takes longer to wipe out nominal debts. Great thing about inflation is that it reduces the value of debt in real terms.

    On the other hand, it increases real earnings so should assist in more consumer spending.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    Eddie said:

    Eddie said:

    How can ComRes show the Greens at 2% in one poll and two days later show them at 5%? Do they actually do any fieldwork? Or do they just make up the figures?

    Differing methodologies produce different results
    Okay, but how do these polls two days apart from the same polling company have any credibility?
    Because they do.

    A poll shift from 2% to 5% is within the margin of error.

    But as I said, they are different polls with different methodologies, so you really shouldn't compare the two.

    For example it silly to compare the ICM Wisdom Index with the ICM phone poll.
    The Wisdom index isn't even trying to measure VI though
  • New thread.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    isam said:

    Quite good head to head on Daily Politics, Heseltine vs Carswell

    JoCo "Do you think Douglas Carswell could ever be tempted back to the Conservative Party?"
    LH "I hope not"
    DC "We agree on much, including that"
    JoCo "In terms of the Conservative Party, do you think Europe will eventually split the party?"
    LH "No. The Tory party is an immensely sophisticated political force. It is the most successful democratic organisation in human history..."
    DC "It hasn't won an election since 1992"
    LH ".. and it has an enormous sense of..."
    DC "entitlement"
    LH "...survival"

    It's funny. Kippers here go on about how little the Tories do to make them want to go back, and here we have Carswell continually slagging off the party on who's back he was happy to ride into Parliament in the first place.

    Would he have made it into the HoC otherwise? I doubt it.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,566
    edited December 2014

    All Governments decry inflation

    Not in Japan, causing inflation is the main policy that the government just got re-elected on.
    Can you brief us a bit on what's happening? - I've read the Economist report and looked at the figures in Wikipedia - quite startlingly unproportional - and Abe and (relatively) the Communists seem to be flourishing with everyone else adrift. Does Abe lead a united party behind his policies these days?
    Eddie said:

    Eddie said:

    How can ComRes show the Greens at 2% in one poll and two days later show them at 5%? Do they actually do any fieldwork? Or do they just make up the figures?

    Differing methodologies produce different results
    Okay, but how do these polls two days apart from the same polling company have any credibility?
    It's difficult to sample small party shares accurately - the margin of error if you draw from the same sample on the same day will be at least a couple of %, so if their real support is say 4% then 5 and 2 are both perfectly plausible figures. In general it's best not to get excited if one poll is different (not that that stops us).
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    edited December 2014

    isam said:

    Quite good head to head on Daily Politics, Heseltine vs Carswell

    JoCo "Do you think Douglas Carswell could ever be tempted back to the Conservative Party?"
    LH "I hope not"
    DC "We agree on much, including that"
    JoCo "In terms of the Conservative Party, do you think Europe will eventually split the party?"
    LH "No. The Tory party is an immensely sophisticated political force. It is the most successful democratic organisation in human history..."
    DC "It hasn't won an election since 1992"
    LH ".. and it has an enormous sense of..."
    DC "entitlement"
    LH "...survival"

    It's funny. Kippers here go on about how little the Tories do to make them want to go back, and here we have Carswell continually slagging off the party on who's back he was happy to ride into Parliament in the first place.

    Would he have made it into the HoC otherwise? I doubt it.
    He is happy to ride on the back of another party now. And it must surely be clear from his comments he despises the bulk of the attitudes of the members of that party.

    Carswell has joined a party who has as its deputy chairman someone who was instrumental in bringing odium on the tories. And of course the party that was instrumental in defeating the tories from 1997 (not 1992) was a rabidly pro EU Labour party. The other party which gained at the tories expense was a rabidly pro EU LibDem party.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    surbiton said:

    All Governments decry inflation

    Not in Japan, causing inflation is the main policy that the government just got re-elected on.
    With the debts we've got we should be aiming for nominal GDP growth of 5%. Apparently inflation has dropped to 1% with the oil drop. I'm no expert but there's an idea called helicopter money. Last resort and all.
    You are right. The problem with low inflation is that it takes longer to wipe out nominal debts. Great thing about inflation is that it reduces the value of debt in real terms.

    On the other hand, it increases real earnings so should assist in more consumer spending.
    Zimbabwe must be one of the greatest richest countries in the world then.

    It would be nice to know how inflation increases 'real earnings'
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,080

    Indigo said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    I note, Nigel Farage didn't remove Kerry Smith, Kerry Smith resigned.

    No wonder Carswell warned UKIP yesterday about their racism and their attitude to second generation immigrants.

    Reading between the lines, a hell of a lot of pressure was placed on him to resign.

    It's a real shame you're not standing for UKIP next year.

    You'd enhance UKIP's credibility overnight.
    Thank you. I'd like to, but just don't have the time right now.
    I understand, it was a shame you never become a Tory MP.

    I know a few people who would like to stand as MPs but aren't primarily for the following reasons

    1) Their lives are already hectic enough

    2) They can't afford the salary drop

    3) They don't fancy living their life under constant scrutiny.
    What's the job of being a local party chairman like ? Presumably depends on your candidate and hence how often you get Central Office on the phone yelling at you to deselect them ;-)
    I know a few constituency chairmen and woman, it's not brilliant, everyone else in the seat thinks they have real power, but in reality, they don't.
    Agree TSE. I am a Lib Dem constituency chair. When it comes to selecting a PPC the procedure is initiated by the local party but then is run by an independent returning officer appointed by the regional party. Then all members have a vote on the final selection. At the local level it is often the local chair who has to make sure there is a full slate for parish, district and county elections - and often fails.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    edited December 2014
    "Since Nov 10 all polls bar YouGov’s have had LAB leads"

    Not true if you include the Opinium "poll that never was" on 17th Nov
This discussion has been closed.