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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Maybe we should all stop looking at the polls and wait till after the holiday season

Interesting looking through the Wiki list of Westminster voting intention polls and one thing stands out – LAB has maintained a lead of some sort with all the firms apart from YouGov which, of course, reports five times a week for the Sun and the Sunday Times.

Read the full story here

RobD

Stop looking at polls? Never!

CarlottaVance

Sound counsel - what we saw in Indyref was a side behind on the economic argument try a fear pitch on the NHS - will we see the same in GE15? Time will tell - but barring black swans I doubt much will change on perceptions of Tory competence, but unfairness, or Labour fairness but lack of effective leadership, between now and May.

If we are voting for parties, Labour should win, if PMs, Cameron. Of course either side is perfectly capable of mucking it up between now and May, and how UKIP fares and the Lib Dems revive will all play a part.

And then there's Scotland - and how I cherish the smell of Nat hubris in the morning.....its served them so well in the past.....

CarlottaVance

How strange.

I thought Ed saw 'Judge Led Enquiries' as a Universal Cure All?

Ed Miliband was facing a backbench revolt last night over Labour’s failure to support a judge-led inquiry into British complicity in torture.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2875329/Red-Ed-feels-heat-torture-Labour-leader-rocked-revolt-MPs-refuses-inquiry-led-judge.html#ixzz3M26SkiV1

Alanbrooke

CarlottaVance said:

Sound counsel - what we saw in Indyref was a side behind on the economic argument try a fear pitch on the NHS - will we see the same in GE15? Time will tell - but barring black swans I doubt much will change on perceptions of Tory competence, but unfairness, or Labour fairness but lack of effective leadership, between now and May.

If we are voting for parties, Labour should win, if PMs, Cameron. Of course either side is perfectly capable of mucking it up between now and May, and how UKIP fares and the Lib Dems revive will all play a part.

And then there's Scotland - and how I cherish the smell of Nat hubris in the morning.....its served them so well in the past.....

Tory competence ?

Less incompetent than Labour perhaps but it isn't actual competence.

Indigo

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sound counsel - what we saw in Indyref was a side behind on the economic argument try a fear pitch on the NHS - will we see the same in GE15? Time will tell - but barring black swans I doubt much will change on perceptions of Tory competence, but unfairness, or Labour fairness but lack of effective leadership, between now and May.

If we are voting for parties, Labour should win, if PMs, Cameron. Of course either side is perfectly capable of mucking it up between now and May, and how UKIP fares and the Lib Dems revive will all play a part.

And then there's Scotland - and how I cherish the smell of Nat hubris in the morning.....its served them so well in the past.....

Tory competence ?

Less incompetent than Labour perhaps but it isn't actual competence.

Such is modern politics, we have three parties who in all reality you couldn't put a cigarette paper between, not so much because of their aims, but because so little that happens is within their control, and to so many of the remaining things there are so few answers that won't either bankrupt the country or get struck down by the ECJ. The press whip up all sorts of inconsequentialities and non-issues into a huge fuss, and voters end up choosing the party whose PR image they dislike the least, and who is, in their view, marginally less incompetent that the others.

Alanbrooke

Indigo said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sound counsel - what we saw in Indyref was a side behind on the economic argument try a fear pitch on the NHS - will we see the same in GE15? Time will tell - but barring black swans I doubt much will change on perceptions of Tory competence, but unfairness, or Labour fairness but lack of effective leadership, between now and May.

If we are voting for parties, Labour should win, if PMs, Cameron. Of course either side is perfectly capable of mucking it up between now and May, and how UKIP fares and the Lib Dems revive will all play a part.

And then there's Scotland - and how I cherish the smell of Nat hubris in the morning.....its served them so well in the past.....

Tory competence ?

Less incompetent than Labour perhaps but it isn't actual competence.

Such is modern politics, we have three parties who in all reality you couldn't put a cigarette paper between, not so much because of their aims, but because so little that happens is within their control, and to so many of the remaining things there are so few answers that won't either bankrupt the country or get struck down by the ECJ. The press whip up all sorts of inconsequentialities and non-issues into a huge fuss, and voters end up choosing the party whose PR image they dislike the least, and who is, in their view, marginally less incompetent that the others.

regrettably true. The main parties no longer know what they stand for.

CarlottaVance

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sound counsel - what we saw in Indyref was a side behind on the economic argument try a fear pitch on the NHS - will we see the same in GE15? Time will tell - but barring black swans I doubt much will change on perceptions of Tory competence, but unfairness, or Labour fairness but lack of effective leadership, between now and May.

If we are voting for parties, Labour should win, if PMs, Cameron. Of course either side is perfectly capable of mucking it up between now and May, and how UKIP fares and the Lib Dems revive will all play a part.

And then there's Scotland - and how I cherish the smell of Nat hubris in the morning.....its served them so well in the past.....

Tory competence ?

Less incompetent than Labour perhaps but it isn't actual competence.

You may think that - but the voters clearly rate Dave & George ahead of the two Eds.....a little better than Dr Johnson's aphorism about there being little purpose in settling precedence between a louse and a flee.......

Indigo

CarlottaVance said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sound counsel - what we saw in Indyref was a side behind on the economic argument try a fear pitch on the NHS - will we see the same in GE15? Time will tell - but barring black swans I doubt much will change on perceptions of Tory competence, but unfairness, or Labour fairness but lack of effective leadership, between now and May.

If we are voting for parties, Labour should win, if PMs, Cameron. Of course either side is perfectly capable of mucking it up between now and May, and how UKIP fares and the Lib Dems revive will all play a part.

And then there's Scotland - and how I cherish the smell of Nat hubris in the morning.....its served them so well in the past.....

Tory competence ?

Less incompetent than Labour perhaps but it isn't actual competence.

You may think that - but the voters clearly rate Dave & George ahead of the two Eds.....a little better than Dr Johnson's aphorism about there being little purpose in settling precedence between a louse and a flee.......

Yes, but they think George is an idiot, and Ed is a complete idiot, hardly a ringing endorsement.

Alanbrooke

CarlottaVance said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sound counsel - what we saw in Indyref was a side behind on the economic argument try a fear pitch on the NHS - will we see the same in GE15? Time will tell - but barring black swans I doubt much will change on perceptions of Tory competence, but unfairness, or Labour fairness but lack of effective leadership, between now and May.

If we are voting for parties, Labour should win, if PMs, Cameron. Of course either side is perfectly capable of mucking it up between now and May, and how UKIP fares and the Lib Dems revive will all play a part.

And then there's Scotland - and how I cherish the smell of Nat hubris in the morning.....its served them so well in the past.....

Tory competence ?

Less incompetent than Labour perhaps but it isn't actual competence.

You may think that - but the voters clearly rate Dave & George ahead of the two Eds.....a little better than Dr Johnson's aphorism about there being little purpose in settling precedence between a louse and a flee.......

that's another way of saying they rate them as less incompetent than the Eds. They don't have an over all positive rating.

audreyanne

A thread with which I thoroughly concur. Well said, Mike.

Let's poll watch in January.

CarlottaVance

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sound counsel - what we saw in Indyref was a side behind on the economic argument try a fear pitch on the NHS - will we see the same in GE15? Time will tell - but barring black swans I doubt much will change on perceptions of Tory competence, but unfairness, or Labour fairness but lack of effective leadership, between now and May.

If we are voting for parties, Labour should win, if PMs, Cameron. Of course either side is perfectly capable of mucking it up between now and May, and how UKIP fares and the Lib Dems revive will all play a part.

And then there's Scotland - and how I cherish the smell of Nat hubris in the morning.....its served them so well in the past.....

Tory competence ?

Less incompetent than Labour perhaps but it isn't actual competence.

You may think that - but the voters clearly rate Dave & George ahead of the two Eds.....a little better than Dr Johnson's aphorism about there being little purpose in settling precedence between a louse and a flee.......

that's another way of saying they rate them as less incompetent than the Eds. They don't have an over all positive rating.

In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king.....

JackW

PBers should of course not only wait until the New Year but much more importantly be following the strictures of my ARSE, the final offering of 2014, will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am this morning

Paul_Mid_Beds

With reference to the dreadful events in Australia. I do get the feeling that, just as with the Lee Rigby killers, these are unhinged individuals who have latched onto Islamism as an outlet for their insanity and would have latched onto something else if there was no Islamism. I think its more a reflection of the disgraceful closure of most of our mental hospitals than anything else. It strikes me that these people should have been in an institution and these killings I think have more in common with the killing of Jayne Zito than anything going on in Syria.

Similarly David Copeland was identified by five psychiatrists as having paranoid scizophrenia.

"Nearly 100 people have been killed by mental health patients in London in eight years, figures show. From 2005 to 2012, 96 people were killed in the capital, an average of 12 every year." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-24437484

This is a damning verdict on care in the community, better named "abandoned to the community".

GeoffM

I see from watching Sky this morning that we have reached Phase 4 of every terrorist atrocity which is the compulsory "This Is Not Typical of The Religion Of Peace" section.

Traditionally the most important part of every post-attack timeline, this phase is mandated to last five full and undisrupted news cycles. Hordes of unelected "community leaders" on every Oz chat-show with recycled talking points on notepads.

Indigo

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/12/the-un-has-outsourced-our-emissions-to-the-developing-world/

Ministers like to pat themselves on the back for reducing UK carbon emissions, which fell by 14 per cent between 1990 and 2008. However, if you calculate carbon emissions on a consumption basis – in other words you include emissions from manufacture of goods produced overseas and bought by western consumer – UK emissions actually rose by 20 per cent over that period. This evidence, calculated by the Public Interest Research Centre, was presented to the Energy and Climate Change Select Committee in 2011.

It isn’t just manufacturing which has been outsourced to the developing world; it is our carbon emissions, too.

So, all those green taxes make no difference at all to emissions, their just an expensive way to make us feel better about ourselves, as member of our elderly population freeze to death in cold winters.

JackW

News reaches me that the Polling Police ( Serious Offences Department) are considering issuing a warrant for the arrest of a certain Michael Smithson of Barchart Avenue, Bedford for Aggravated Polling Harm.

Overnight rumours indicated that Smithson, a former long haired 60's beatnik and sometime Liberal "Pavement Politician" has been indicating that normal rational folk should ignore polling until the New Year.

Friends of Smithson are said to be extremely distressed and put his outrageous statements down to a sudden and unnatural jump in the fortunes of the LibDems in the recent Comres poll coupled with the accidental loss of his favourite toupee down his kitchen waste management shredder.

Alanbrooke

Indigo said:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/12/the-un-has-outsourced-our-emissions-to-the-developing-world/

Ministers like to pat themselves on the back for reducing UK carbon emissions, which fell by 14 per cent between 1990 and 2008. However, if you calculate carbon emissions on a consumption basis – in other words you include emissions from manufacture of goods produced overseas and bought by western consumer – UK emissions actually rose by 20 per cent over that period. This evidence, calculated by the Public Interest Research Centre, was presented to the Energy and Climate Change Select Committee in 2011.

It isn’t just manufacturing which has been outsourced to the developing world; it is our carbon emissions, too.

So, all those green taxes make no difference at all to emissions, their just an expensive way to make us feel better about ourselves, as member of our elderly population freeze to death in cold winters.

precisely.

We've simply dumped the problem on the developing world and walked away. If anything the argument is why are we not re-shoring since pollution and efficiency standards will be higher in the UK than China or India.

GeoffM

JackW said:

News reaches me that the Polling Police ( Serious Offences Department) are considering issuing a warrant for the arrest of a certain Michael Smithson of Barchart Avenue, Bedford for Aggravated Polling Harm.

Overnight rumours indicated that Smithson, a former long haired 60's beatnik and sometime Liberal "Pavement Politician" has been indicating that normal rational folk should ignore polling until the New Year.

Friends of Smithson are said to be extremely distressed and put his outrageous statements down to a sudden and unnatural jump in the fortunes of the LibDems in the recent Comres poll coupled with the accidental loss of his favourite toupee down his kitchen waste management shredder.

It was hilarious to get one poll putting the Liberals in double figures and watch the four remaining LDs in the UK spontaneously beating themselves off to a dry husk in excitement.

JackW

GeoffM said:

JackW said:

News reaches me that the Polling Police ( Serious Offences Department) are considering issuing a warrant for the arrest of a certain Michael Smithson of Barchart Avenue, Bedford for Aggravated Polling Harm.

Overnight rumours indicated that Smithson, a former long haired 60's beatnik and sometime Liberal "Pavement Politician" has been indicating that normal rational folk should ignore polling until the New Year.

Friends of Smithson are said to be extremely distressed and put his outrageous statements down to a sudden and unnatural jump in the fortunes of the LibDems in the recent Comres poll coupled with the accidental loss of his favourite toupee down his kitchen waste management shredder.

It was hilarious to get one poll putting the Liberals in double figures and watch the four remaining LDs in the UK spontaneously beating themselves off to a dry husk in excitement.

Thank you for sharing your favourite dream with the rest of PB !!

Cyclefree

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

With reference to the dreadful events in Australia. I do get the feeling that, just as with the Lee Rigby killers, these are unhinged individuals who have latched onto Islamism as an outlet for their insanity and would have latched onto something else if there was no Islamism. I think its more a reflection of the disgraceful closure of most of our mental hospitals than anything else. It strikes me that these people should have been in an institution and these killings I think have more in common with the killing of Jayne Zito than anything going on in Syria.

Similarly David Copeland was identified by five psychiatrists as having paranoid scizophrenia.

"Nearly 100 people have been killed by mental health patients in London in eight years, figures show. From 2005 to 2012, 96 people were killed in the capital, an average of 12 every year." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-24437484

This is a damning verdict on care in the community, better named "abandoned to the community".

I am sitting on a balcony in Istanbul overlooking the Golden Horn. It is misty and warm.

Too easy to say that this person was unhinged. Why is it that such people latch onto Islam? What is it about Islam that seems to attract the violent?

And this person was demonstrating about Australia's support for the war in Afghanistan and writing abusive letters to soldiers. So clearly there was some Islamist political aspect to his behaviour.

But really my main thoughts are for the three motherless children and husband and the parents of the hostages who died.

JackW

Final 2015 ARSE General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projections Countdown of this year :

2 hours

Indigo

JackW said:

Final 2015 ARSE General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projections Countdown of this year :

2 hours

3hrs before Heseltine appears on Daily Politics to save the EU and pull Cameron's cojones out of the fire...

GeoffM

JackW said:

GeoffM said:

JackW said:

News reaches me that the Polling Police ( Serious Offences Department) are considering issuing a warrant for the arrest of a certain Michael Smithson of Barchart Avenue, Bedford for Aggravated Polling Harm.

Overnight rumours indicated that Smithson, a former long haired 60's beatnik and sometime Liberal "Pavement Politician" has been indicating that normal rational folk should ignore polling until the New Year.

Friends of Smithson are said to be extremely distressed and put his outrageous statements down to a sudden and unnatural jump in the fortunes of the LibDems in the recent Comres poll coupled with the accidental loss of his favourite toupee down his kitchen waste management shredder.

It was hilarious to get one poll putting the Liberals in double figures and watch the four remaining LDs in the UK spontaneously beating themselves off to a dry husk in excitement.

Thank you for sharing your favourite dream with the rest of PB !!

The polling means that it's not a recurring dream ... more of a one-off nightmare!
Unlike May 2015 which will be a nightmare for the LDs and therefore (at least in part) a joy for the rest of us

NickPalmer

It's clearly true that most people are going to pay diminishing attention to polls over the next fortnight. But there isn't much evidence that I've seen for Ashcroft's view that people take a different view of politics in January to the rest of the year.

Conservatives here and elsewhere have been saying their poll rating will recover at various points along the line in 2014 - the Budget, October, the Autumn Statement. It hasn't happened, and it's in my view unlikely to happen in January either. The only significant change in 2014 has been the the previous Con->UKIP shift has been followed by a Lab->UKIP and Lab->SNP shift. That's narrowed the Lab-Con lead, but the voters that are still in the Lab and Con columns are not easy to shift. With UKIP and the SNP stripping off the floating voters and the disaffected, what's left is the party core votes.

We shall see probably some UKIP (and maybe SNP) erosion in the coming months to the benefit of all the other parties, because of media focus. But broadly speaking the current, very stable, polls are probably as good a predictor of May as anything else.

audreyanne

Cyclefree said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

With reference to the dreadful events in Australia. I do get the feeling that, just as with the Lee Rigby killers, these are unhinged individuals who have latched onto Islamism as an outlet for their insanity and would have latched onto something else if there was no Islamism. I think its more a reflection of the disgraceful closure of most of our mental hospitals than anything else. It strikes me that these people should have been in an institution and these killings I think have more in common with the killing of Jayne Zito than anything going on in Syria.

Similarly David Copeland was identified by five psychiatrists as having paranoid scizophrenia.

"Nearly 100 people have been killed by mental health patients in London in eight years, figures show. From 2005 to 2012, 96 people were killed in the capital, an average of 12 every year." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-24437484

This is a damning verdict on care in the community, better named "abandoned to the community".

I am sitting on a balcony in Istanbul overlooking the Golden Horn. It is misty and warm.

Too easy to say that this person was unhinged. Why is it that such people latch onto Islam? What is it about Islam that seems to attract the violent?

Rot.

The man was a loon. He had a history of violent assaults, numerous sexual assaults, mental health diagnoses, known instability and volatility, a criminal past and had just lost a criminal court hearing … do I need to go on?

Nutters latch onto any religion. You only have to look at exorcisms on children: the savage 5-day torture and death of Kristy Bamu in London in 2010 in the name of Christianity being one example. In one African capital alone there are an estimated 80,000 children living on the streets because of the pretext of fundamentalist Christianity ('they are witches').

Of course, it suits a right-wing meme to blame it all on Islam but the truth is that lunatics tend to seize on any religious fundamentalism to justify their actions.

JackW

Indigo said:

JackW said:

Final 2015 ARSE General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projections Countdown of this year :

2 hours

3hrs before Heseltine appears on Daily Politics to save the EU and pull Cameron's cojones out of the fire...

A hugely exciting morning all round ....

The tension mounts ....

AlastairMeeks

Morning all. Those considering the possible next Conservative leader should read this speech by Sajid Javid:

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/sajid-javids-speech-at-the-union-of-jewish-students-annual-conference-2014

He has potential.

peter_from_putney

antifrank said:

Morning all. Those considering the possible next Conservative leader should read this speech by Sajid Javid:

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/sajid-javids-speech-at-the-union-of-jewish-students-annual-conference-2014

He has potential.

Indeed, but 10/1 against him on Betfair is a ridiculous price and 16/1 elsewhere is still way too short. I see him more likely as being the Tory leader after next.

Indigo

audreyanne said:

Of course, it suits a right-wing meme to blame it all on Islam but the truth is that lunatics tend to seize on any religious fundamentalism to justify their actions.

Out of interest what sort of proof would you need before you would believe it was more than a nutter, or group of nutters, or possibly a regiment of nutters with close air support....

peter_from_putney

JackW said:

Indigo said:

JackW said:

Final 2015 ARSE General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projections Countdown of this year :

2 hours

3hrs before Heseltine appears on Daily Politics to save the EU and pull Cameron's cojones out of the fire...

A hugely exciting morning all round ....

The tension mounts ....

But nowhere near as exciting or tense as your ARSE Jack ....... just 95 minutes to go before you show it off to the World!

DavidL

antifrank said:

Morning all. Those considering the possible next Conservative leader should read this speech by Sajid Javid:

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/sajid-javids-speech-at-the-union-of-jewish-students-annual-conference-2014

He has potential.

Really interesting and excellent speech. Thanks for the link.

OldKingCole

Indigo said:

audreyanne said:

Of course, it suits a right-wing meme to blame it all on Islam but the truth is that lunatics tend to seize on any religious fundamentalism to justify their actions.

Out of interest what sort of proof would you need before you would believe it was more than a nutter, or group of nutters, or possibly a regiment of nutters with close air support....

Wasn’t Jones, the guy who led the poisoning sect in Guyana a few years ago, allegedly some sort of Christian?

Cyclefree

audreyanne said:

Cyclefree said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

With reference to the dreadful events in Australia. I do get the feeling that, just as with the Lee Rigby killers, these are unhinged individuals who have latched onto Islamism as an outlet for their insanity and would have latched onto something else if there was no Islamism. I think its more a reflection of the disgraceful closure of most of our mental hospitals than anything else. It strikes me that these people should have been in an institution and these killings I think have more in common with the killing of Jayne Zito than anything going on in Syria.

Similarly David Copeland was identified by five psychiatrists as having paranoid scizophrenia.

"Nearly 100 people have been killed by mental health patients in London in eight years, figures show. From 2005 to 2012, 96 people were killed in the capital, an average of 12 every year." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-24437484

This is a damning verdict on care in the community, better named "abandoned to the community".

I am sitting on a balcony in Istanbul overlooking the Golden Horn. It is misty and warm.

Too easy to say that this person was unhinged. Why is it that such people latch onto Islam? What is it about Islam that seems to attract the violent?

Rot.

The man was a loon. He had a history of violent assaults, numerous sexual assaults, mental health diagnoses, known instability and volatility, a criminal past and had just lost a criminal court hearing … do I need to go on?

Nutters latch onto any religion. You only have to look at exorcisms on children: the savage 5-day torture and death of Kristy Bamu in London in 2010 in the name of Christianity being one example. In one African capital alone there are an estimated 80,000 children living on the streets because of the pretext of fundamentalist Christianity ('they are witches').

Of course, it suits a right-wing meme to blame it all on Islam but the truth is that lunatics tend to seize on any religious fundamentalism to justify their actions.

Rose-tinted glasses help no-one.

Every time I have visited Istanbul - and one of its many mosques - I have been struck by how peaceful and welcoming they are. It is easy to see how upsetting it must be to those peacefully praying inside to be associated with those spreading violence in the name of or under cover of the same religion.

And yet and yet: there are plenty of men who lose court cases, who behave appallingly to women or who dislike the wars in Afghanistan who do not go on the rampage, do not use religion to justify their acts and do not hold up the banners of terrorist groups. And when they do it seems to be one religion above all which is chosen. Intelligent people of all faiths and none should be asking themselves why not pretending that this does not happen.

Indigo

antifrank said:

Morning all. Those considering the possible next Conservative leader should read this speech by Sajid Javid:

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/sajid-javids-speech-at-the-union-of-jewish-students-annual-conference-2014

He has potential.

Ultimately it’s about understanding and expressing what it means to be human.
But that cannot happen if art is censored.
And I told them that I believe the free press is an absolute concept.
Something you support 100 per cent or not at all.
That you just can’t say “I believe in media freedom, but…”
The same is true of art and culture.
It simply doesn’t make sense to say “I believe in freedom of artistic expression, but…”

Not sure the recent protest outside parliament which has so engaged SeanT would agree that arts is not censored!

bigjohnowls

Todays BJESUS

16.12.14 LAB 318 (319) CON 267(267) LD 31(31) UKIP 1(1) Others 33(32) (Ed is crap is PM)
Last weeks BJESUS in brackets Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 142 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer

Indigo

OldKingCole said:

Indigo said:

audreyanne said:

Of course, it suits a right-wing meme to blame it all on Islam but the truth is that lunatics tend to seize on any religious fundamentalism to justify their actions.

Out of interest what sort of proof would you need before you would believe it was more than a nutter, or group of nutters, or possibly a regiment of nutters with close air support....

Wasn’t Jones, the guy who led the poisoning sect in Guyana a few years ago, allegedly some sort of Christian?

Quite possibly, I am not condemning one group of religious fundamentalists over another...

OldKingCole

Our local WEA is, in January, starting a 10 week series of talks on “ Islam and Muslims in the UK and the Modern World” given by a Mr Muhammad Manwar Ali.

I’m looking forward to being enlightened.

foxinsoxuk

GeoffM said:

I see from watching Sky this morning that we have reached Phase 4 of every terrorist atrocity which is the compulsory "This Is Not Typical of The Religion Of Peace" section.

Traditionally the most important part of every post-attack timeline, this phase is mandated to last five full and undisrupted news cycles. Hordes of unelected "community leaders" on every Oz chat-show with recycled talking points on notepads.

We also get calls of solidarity against the backlash.

The truth is that from Sydney to Greenwich to Stockholm to Ottawa there is almost no backlash apart from a few rude words and some grafitti. The rest of the world is actually very tolerant to these sorts of Jihadist maniacs within our communities.

Cyclefree asks why Islam attracts so many of these violent and disaffected people. In large part I think it because in other religions a martyr is someone who dies for their faith, in Islam a martyr is someone who dies while killing for his faith. When the highest expression of faith sanctions killing then there is going to be a lot of it about.

foxinsoxuk

DavidL said:

antifrank said:

Morning all. Those considering the possible next Conservative leader should read this speech by Sajid Javid:

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/sajid-javids-speech-at-the-union-of-jewish-students-annual-conference-2014

He has potential.

Really interesting and excellent speech. Thanks for the link.

Some great humour in there too.

CD13

Mr Cole,

"Wasn’t Jones, the guy who led the poisoning sect in Guyana a few years ago, allegedly some sort of Christian?"

Possibly, He was a guru and believed in a very weird God - an alien in a spaceship. But even these sort of nutters tend to withdraw from society. They want nothing to do with the rest of the world and certainly don't go round beheading or blowing other people up at random.

You wouldn't find them dead (sorry) in a big city like Sydney.

Bobajob_

audreyanne said:

A thread with which I thoroughly concur. Well said, Mike.

Let's poll watch in January.

If the polls don't shift in Jan, Audrey will be on here encouraging us to poll watch in Feb!

OldKingCole

bigjohnowls said:

Todays BJESUS

16.12.14 LAB 318 (319) CON 267(267) LD 31(31) UKIP 1(1) Others 33(32) (Ed is crap is PM)
Last weeks BJESUS in brackets Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 142 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer

Don’t quite agree Mr Owls. You’re giving the SNP around 9 seats. Surely they’ll do better than that, and that’ll push Lab down by whatever, probably to 290-300.

OldKingCole

foxinsoxuk said:

GeoffM said:

I see from watching Sky this morning that we have reached Phase 4 of every terrorist atrocity which is the compulsory "This Is Not Typical of The Religion Of Peace" section.

Traditionally the most important part of every post-attack timeline, this phase is mandated to last five full and undisrupted news cycles. Hordes of unelected "community leaders" on every Oz chat-show with recycled talking points on notepads.

We also get calls of solidarity against the backlash.

The truth is that from Sydney to Greenwich to Stockholm to Ottawa there is almost no backlash apart from a few rude words and some grafitti. The rest of the world is actually very tolerant to these sorts of Jihadist maniacs within our communities.

Cyclefree asks why Islam attracts so many of these violent and disaffected people. In large part I think it because in other religions a martyr is someone who dies for their faith, in Islam a martyr is someone who dies while killing for his faith. When the highest expression of faith sanctions killing then there is going to be a lot of it about.

Good question Dr Fox. I’ll ask the guy during the course.

DavidL

The Mayo clinic define schizophrenia as follows:

"Schizophrenia is a severe brain disorder in which people interpret reality abnormally. Schizophrenia may result in some combination of hallucinations, delusions, and extremely disordered thinking and behavior."

To me the links between this kind of delusion and those that indulge in any religion become increasingly apparent. I genuinely try hard to be tolerant and respectful of other peoples' views and beliefs. But the evidence accrues daily. There are more than enough problems in the real world without delusions.

DavidL

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

antifrank said:

Morning all. Those considering the possible next Conservative leader should read this speech by Sajid Javid:

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/sajid-javids-speech-at-the-union-of-jewish-students-annual-conference-2014

He has potential.

Really interesting and excellent speech. Thanks for the link.

Some great humour in there too.

I especially liked:

"I remember when I became an MP four years ago; I was driving home from the count.

And I turned to my wife and said “Laura, did you ever imagine, in your wildest dreams, that one day I would actually be a Member of Parliament?”

And she looked me in the eye and said: “Darling, in my wildest dreams, you don’t feature at all”.


My wife thought it was funny too!

Moses_

audreyanne said:

Cyclefree said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

With reference to the dreadful events in Australia. I do get the feeling that, just as with the Lee Rigby killers, these are unhinged individuals who have latched onto Islamism as an outlet for their insanity and would have latched onto something else if there was no Islamism. I think its more a reflection of the disgraceful closure of most of our mental hospitals than anything else. It strikes me that these people should have been in an institution and these killings I think have more in common with the killing of Jayne Zito than anything going on in Syria.

Similarly David Copeland was identified by five psychiatrists as having paranoid scizophrenia.

"Nearly 100 people have been killed by mental health patients in London in eight years, figures show. From 2005 to 2012, 96 people were killed in the capital, an average of 12 every year." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-24437484

This is a damning verdict on care in the community, better named "abandoned to the community".

I am sitting on a balcony in Istanbul overlooking the Golden Horn. It is misty and warm.

Too easy to say that this person was unhinged. Why is it that such people latch onto Islam? What is it about Islam that seems to attract the violent?

Rot.

The man was a loon. He had a history of violent assaults, numerous sexual assaults, mental health diagnoses, known instability and volatility, a criminal past and had just lost a criminal court hearing … do I need to go on?

Nutters latch onto any religion. You only have to look at exorcisms on children: the savage 5-day torture and death of Kristy Bamu in London in 2010 in the name of Christianity being one example. In one African capital alone there are an estimated 80,000 children living on the streets because of the pretext of fundamentalist Christianity ('they are witches').

Of course, it suits a right-wing meme to blame it all on Islam but the truth is that lunatics tend to seize on any religious fundamentalism to justify their actions.

Just trying to think of another religion where you wou,d face death by stoning if you turned your back on it? Probably is one but I can't think of one right now?

Roger

Antifrank

"Morning all. Those considering the possible next Conservative leader should read this speech by Sajid Javid:"

Though it is a well constructed speech I'm not a fan of politicians who talk to interest groups and just parrot the concerns of that group. Israel have disregarded more UN resolutions than any other country and The Conservative Party are past masters at boycotts yet the federation of jewish students are treated to Javid's frank views on why cultural boycotts against Israel are offensive even hinting at anti semitism.

Smarmeron

@JackW
"Final 2015 ARSE General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projections Countdown of this year"

Doesn't time fly Jack? 2015 flew bye so fast I completely missed it.

Moses_

bigjohnowls said:

Todays BJESUS

16.12.14 LAB 318 (319) CON 267(267) LD 31(31) UKIP 1(1) Others 33(32) (Ed is crap is PM)
Last weeks BJESUS in brackets Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 142 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer

Why do you always go AWOL on the days Ed makes big speeches?

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Miss Cyclefree, I hope you have a lovely time in Byzantium, made the capital of the world by honorary Yorkshireman Constantine the Great.

I think you make a sound point on Islam.

[Deleted User]

Roger said:

I'm not a fan of politicians who talk to interest groups and just parrot the concerns of that group.

So you're dead against Labour politicians parroting the self-interested concerns of the public sector trade unions? Good for you!

Indigo

OldKingCole said:

foxinsoxuk said:

GeoffM said:

I see from watching Sky this morning that we have reached Phase 4 of every terrorist atrocity which is the compulsory "This Is Not Typical of The Religion Of Peace" section.

Traditionally the most important part of every post-attack timeline, this phase is mandated to last five full and undisrupted news cycles. Hordes of unelected "community leaders" on every Oz chat-show with recycled talking points on notepads.

We also get calls of solidarity against the backlash.

The truth is that from Sydney to Greenwich to Stockholm to Ottawa there is almost no backlash apart from a few rude words and some grafitti. The rest of the world is actually very tolerant to these sorts of Jihadist maniacs within our communities.

Cyclefree asks why Islam attracts so many of these violent and disaffected people. In large part I think it because in other religions a martyr is someone who dies for their faith, in Islam a martyr is someone who dies while killing for his faith. When the highest expression of faith sanctions killing then there is going to be a lot of it about.

Good question Dr Fox. I’ll ask the guy during the course.

He should know:

Muhammad Manwar Ali
former Islamist - Ipswich, UK

Sheikh Abu Muntasir (Muhammad Manwar Ali) is the founder and Chief Executive of JIMAS, a UK educational charity.

Abu has been doing da'wah work in the UK for almost 25 years. His work is devoted to providing training for various Islamic Society committees in universities in da’wah and related affairs, providing diversity training in Islam for social workers, establishing study circles across the UK, and delivering lectures. He received his B.Sc. and M.Sc. in Computer Science and MA in Islamic Studies all from London university.

foxinsoxuk

OldKingCole said:

foxinsoxuk said:

GeoffM said:

I see from watching Sky this morning that we have reached Phase 4 of every terrorist atrocity which is the compulsory "This Is Not Typical of The Religion Of Peace" section.

Traditionally the most important part of every post-attack timeline, this phase is mandated to last five full and undisrupted news cycles. Hordes of unelected "community leaders" on every Oz chat-show with recycled talking points on notepads.

We also get calls of solidarity against the backlash.

The truth is that from Sydney to Greenwich to Stockholm to Ottawa there is almost no backlash apart from a few rude words and some grafitti. The rest of the world is actually very tolerant to these sorts of Jihadist maniacs within our communities.

Cyclefree asks why Islam attracts so many of these violent and disaffected people. In large part I think it because in other religions a martyr is someone who dies for their faith, in Islam a martyr is someone who dies while killing for his faith. When the highest expression of faith sanctions killing then there is going to be a lot of it about.

Good question Dr Fox. I’ll ask the guy during the course.

You may also find Mark Durie's blog interesting, he is an Anglican minister in Melbourne who has written quite extensively on Islam. His September 26th post on truth and love is particularly thoughtful:

http://blog.markdurie.com/search?updated-min=2014-01-01T00:00:00-08:00&updated-max=2015-01-01T00:00:00-08:00&max-results=20&m=1

CD13

I've noticed that generally people are far more ignorant of what religions stand for than they used to be. A combination of secularisation in Europe and much less religious teaching in school.

Christianity teaches the Golden Rule and extends it. Islam teaches a form of this, but submission to Allah is paramount.

I'm comfortable with atheists who understand what they are talking about, but it has also become a fashion, a badge of honour for some, so they don't need to understand what they are criticising. They criticise the human error (to err is human, to forgive is divine).

I'm sure the Salvation army is full of sinners but how many of you would give up their time to run soup kitchens? I wouldn't.

Islam gives its adherents more freedom to choose and that's why human nature can show its bad side.

Christians can demonstrate its bad side too, but both are aiming for the stars.

And killing others has always been wrong in Christianity. No ifs and buts.

Indigo

CD13 said:

And killing others has always been wrong in Christianity. No ifs and buts.

Except during The Crusades of course..

Several hundred thousand Roman Catholic Christians became crusaders by taking a public vow and receiving plenary indulgences from the church. Remembering that an indulgence is the the pre-forgiveness of sins.. in this case being the sins being wholesale rape, pillage, torture and slaughter.

JackW

Final ARSE 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projections Countdowns of this year :

32 minutes 32 seconds

CD13

Indigo,

Except during The Crusades of course."

And all the rest. There aren't many Saints around. Christians know what they should do but recognise they fall short for reasons of expediency, greed, lust etc.

In Islam, you have the Koran and the Hadith so more room for your own interpretation. You can kill with an easy mind, if you convince yourself. Unfortunately, a small minority do.

TGOHF

JackW said:

Final ARSE 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projections Countdowns of this year :

32 minutes 32 seconds

Inflation figures at 9.30 - its Titter Tuesday !

Peter_the_Punter

Indigo said:

CD13 said:

And killing others has always been wrong in Christianity. No ifs and buts.

Except during The Crusades of course..

Several hundred thousand Roman Catholic Christians became crusaders by taking a public vow and receiving plenary indulgences from the church. Remembering that an indulgence is the the pre-forgiveness of sins.. in this case being the sins being wholesale rape, pillage, torture and slaughter.

I always thought the massacre of the Cathars was a particularly telling indictment:

"When they discovered, from the admissions of some of them, that there were Catholics mingled with the heretics they said to the abbot “Sir, what shall we do, for we cannot distinguish between the faithful and the heretics.” The abbot, like the others, was afraid that many, in fear of death, would pretend to be Catholics, and after their departure, would return to their heresy, and is said to have replied “Caedite eos. Novit enim Dominus qui sunt eius - Kill them all for the Lord knoweth them that are His” (2 Tim. ii. 19) and so countless number in that town were slain."

The Cathars never recovered.

rottenborough

DavidL said:

The Mayo clinic define schizophrenia as follows:

"Schizophrenia is a severe brain disorder in which people interpret reality abnormally. Schizophrenia may result in some combination of hallucinations, delusions, and extremely disordered thinking and behavior."

To me the links between this kind of delusion and those that indulge in any religion become increasingly apparent. I genuinely try hard to be tolerant and respectful of other peoples' views and beliefs. But the evidence accrues daily. There are more than enough problems in the real world without delusions.

No, I don't think this is right and it doesn't help people's understanding of this dreadful condition to make statements like this. The National Institute of Mental Health writes, of delusions in schizophrenia:

"Delusions are false personal beliefs that are not subject to reason or contradictory evidence and are not explained by a person’s usual cultural concepts."

Note the last part.

Luckyguy1983

CD13 said:

I've noticed that generally people are far more ignorant of what religions stand for than they used to be. A combination of secularisation in Europe and much less religious teaching in school.

Christianity teaches the Golden Rule and extends it. Islam teaches a form of this, but submission to Allah is paramount.

I'm comfortable with atheists who understand what they are talking about, but it has also become a fashion, a badge of honour for some, so they don't need to understand what they are criticising. They criticise the human error (to err is human, to forgive is divine).

I'm sure the Salvation army is full of sinners but how many of you would give up their time to run soup kitchens? I wouldn't.

Islam gives its adherents more freedom to choose and that's why human nature can show its bad side.

Christians can demonstrate its bad side too, but both are aiming for the stars.

And killing others has always been wrong in Christianity. No ifs and buts.

Thankyou, a very necessary comment.

TGOHF

Patrick Wintour ‏@patrickwintour 10m10 minutes ago
John Prescott on @BBCR4 on English votes etc. "That is why Red Ed is right to have a commission". Legend.

Titter Tuesday !

michaelcollins10

OK, so once again lower down the comments there is the "they're all the same" meme.

Well, that's probably how it feels for a significant minority of UK citizens (and perhaps the majority of PB posters) who never expect to rely on either local or national government for essential needs.

Personally I'd rather have a safety net with far fewer holes in it!

Monksfield

GeoffM said:

JackW said:

News reaches me that the Polling Police ( Serious Offences Department) are considering issuing a warrant for the arrest of a certain Michael Smithson of Barchart Avenue, Bedford for Aggravated Polling Harm.

Overnight rumours indicated that Smithson, a former long haired 60's beatnik and sometime Liberal "Pavement Politician" has been indicating that normal rational folk should ignore polling until the New Year.

Friends of Smithson are said to be extremely distressed and put his outrageous statements down to a sudden and unnatural jump in the fortunes of the LibDems in the recent Comres poll coupled with the accidental loss of his favourite toupee down his kitchen waste management shredder.

It was hilarious to get one poll putting the Liberals in double figures and watch the four remaining LDs in the UK spontaneously beating themselves off to a dry husk in excitement.

Indeed. Almost as hilarious as the mass circle jerk we get here every single time some outlier puts Con beyond the crossover.

JackW

TGOHF said:

JackW said:

Final ARSE 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projections Countdowns of this year :

32 minutes 32 seconds

Inflation figures at 9.30 - its Titter Tuesday !

It's A Tumultuous Titillating Titanic Tuesday Of Titterness

Peter_the_Punter

CD13 said:

Indigo,

Except during The Crusades of course."

And all the rest. There aren't many Saints around. Christians know what they should do but recognise they fall short for reasons of expediency, greed, lust etc.

In Islam, you have the Koran and the Hadith so more room for your own interpretation. You can kill with an easy mind, if you convince yourself. Unfortunately, a small minority do.

There is no textual justification for murder in any of these documents, nor in the Bible, but the history of Islam and Christianity would lead you to think otherwise.

OldKingCole

Mr Indigo, Dr Fox, thank you. I’m on the committee of the organising WEA, so I hope we get a good, inquisitive attendance.

And, of course learn something!

foxinsoxuk

OldKingCole said:

Mr Indigo, Dr Fox, thank you. I’m on the committee of the organising WEA, so I hope we get a good, inquisitive attendance.

And, of course learn something!

Farid Esak has also written well; particularly on Islam in a multicultural country and on support for womens rights: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farid_Esack

His book "On being a Muslim" was written while studying in Birmingham, and shows an enlighttened Islam that fits well in the modern world.

Bobajob_

Monksfield said:

GeoffM said:

JackW said:

News reaches me that the Polling Police ( Serious Offences Department) are considering issuing a warrant for the arrest of a certain Michael Smithson of Barchart Avenue, Bedford for Aggravated Polling Harm.

Overnight rumours indicated that Smithson, a former long haired 60's beatnik and sometime Liberal "Pavement Politician" has been indicating that normal rational folk should ignore polling until the New Year.

Friends of Smithson are said to be extremely distressed and put his outrageous statements down to a sudden and unnatural jump in the fortunes of the LibDems in the recent Comres poll coupled with the accidental loss of his favourite toupee down his kitchen waste management shredder.

It was hilarious to get one poll putting the Liberals in double figures and watch the four remaining LDs in the UK spontaneously beating themselves off to a dry husk in excitement.

Indeed. Almost as hilarious as the mass circle jerk we get here every single time some outlier puts Con beyond the crossover.

Harsh but fair.

TOPPING

Nice speech from Sajid.

Cracking Polly this morning. Unaccountably the comments aren't yet open - the moderators presumably still in the gym and then knocking back the rum ration ahead of a demanding session.

theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/dec/16/tories-poor-people-iain-duncan-smith-behavioural-change

Moses_

Peter_the_Punter said:

CD13 said:

Indigo,

Except during The Crusades of course."

And all the rest. There aren't many Saints around. Christians know what they should do but recognise they fall short for reasons of expediency, greed, lust etc.

In Islam, you have the Koran and the Hadith so more room for your own interpretation. You can kill with an easy mind, if you convince yourself. Unfortunately, a small minority do.

There is no textual justification for murder in any of these documents, nor in the Bible, but the history of Islam and Christianity would lead you to think otherwise.

I understood that one Muslim should never kill another muslim according to the scriptures. However I also understand that if the Muslim undertaking the deed has decided the other is no longer of the faith or a good muslim then that's ok. Interesting interpretation and of course a neat escape clause?

Indigo

michaelcollins10 said:

OK, so once again lower down the comments there is the "they're all the same" meme.

Well, that's probably how it feels for a significant minority of UK citizens (and perhaps the majority of PB posters) who never expect to rely on either local or national government for essential needs.

Personally I'd rather have a safety net with far fewer holes in it!

That was rather my point. Safety nets cost and the country doesn't have any money, or much scope for raising taxes. I am sure Eds heart is in the right place, but the economics of the country are not. If as is rumoured he is planning large tax rises, then lots of people need to be prepared to lose their jobs as companies and skilled workers move offshore to more favourable climbs. Those of us at the dry end of the economic spectrum will then stand back and watch in "amazement" as the actual amount of tax received drops.

JackW

BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 2nd December Projection) :

Con 304 (-6) .. Lab 269 (+7) .. LibDem 34 (NC) .. SNP 17 (-1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

Conservatives 22 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................

"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

Bury North - Likely Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - TCTC (From Likely Con Hold)
Watford - Likely LibDem Gain
Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
Enfield - Likely Lab Gain (From TCTC)
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochill and South Perthshire - Likely SNP Gain

Changes From 2 Dec - Ipswich moves from Likely Con Hold to TCTC. Enfield moves from Likely Con Hold to TCTC.

TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................

WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors

Indigo

TOPPING said:

Cracking Polly this morning. Unaccountably the comments aren't yet open - the moderators presumably still in the gym and then knocking back the rum ration ahead of a demanding session.

theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/dec/16/tories-poor-people-iain-duncan-smith-behavioural-change

The moderators are going to be busy, that article is complete and utter tosh even by her own exemplary standards in this regard. Her basic problem appears to be that she feels the state should pay for people that continue to produce children with no thought to their own financial circumstances ad infinitum.

Morris_Dancer

English votes for English laws plan to be unveiled later:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30484453

dr_spyn

Why is Red Ed trending on Twitter?

stodge

Monksfield said:

Indeed. Almost as hilarious as the mass circle jerk we get here every single time some outlier puts Con beyond the crossover.

Of course, the cheap jibes and waspish comments hide the growing frustration bordering on panic in Conservative ranks that the polls aren't going to turn, Labour won't collapse and the UKIP defectors won't come back.

For all the ludicrous anti-Miliband vitriol, there have been any number of Conservative "re-launches" which were going to turn the polls from the Autumn Statement to "the great speech on Europe and immigration" and the Party remains at or around 30% in most polls which was the hugely profitable position they occupied in 1997 and 2001.

I think the ComRes LD number likely to be an outlier though the differences between that poll and YouGov are enormous. Even so, the thought that the one crumb of consolation the Conservatives might take from their own defeat next year, the annihilation of the LDs, might be snatched away has the Tories sounding very brittle this morning.

Peter_the_Punter

Moses_ said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

CD13 said:

Indigo,

Except during The Crusades of course."

And all the rest. There aren't many Saints around. Christians know what they should do but recognise they fall short for reasons of expediency, greed, lust etc.

In Islam, you have the Koran and the Hadith so more room for your own interpretation. You can kill with an easy mind, if you convince yourself. Unfortunately, a small minority do.

There is no textual justification for murder in any of these documents, nor in the Bible, but the history of Islam and Christianity would lead you to think otherwise.

I understood that one Muslim should never kill another muslim according to the scriptures. However I also understand that if the Muslim undertaking the deed has decided the other is no longer of the faith or a good muslim then that's ok. Interesting interpretation and of course a neat escape clause?

It's an interpretation, Moses, not dissimilar to the interpretation the Crusaders employed when roasting heathen babies live over open fires.

Indigo

stodge said:

Of course, the cheap jibes and waspish comments hide the growing frustration bordering on panic in Conservative ranks that the polls aren't going to turn, Labour won't collapse and the UKIP defectors won't come back.

There probably are a few "soft kippers" around, maybe 3-4%, which might drift back, although given the predilection of most Tories to hurl abuse at anyone even remotely associated with UKIP, and patronise their concerns or describe them as racists, I think they probably need to work on their anger management, or look forward to opposition. It's possible that Ed might feck up even more, or implode at the TV debates (if they happen) but that seems like a high risk strategy.

dr_spyn

Prescott may think Ed is Red. A picture editor might infer that the guy is a winker (misprint).

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2875388/Red-Ed-denies-seeing-advice-telling-MPs-not-mention-immigration-Labour-leader-insists-no-idea-responsible-33-page-document.html

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Punter, it's strange how atrocities and betrayals in the Crusades tend to get put on Crusaders' doors but not Muslims. Both sides broke faith, accepting surrender on condition of being allow to live, and then massacring prisoners.

Part of it was just due to the age. The medieval world was a cruel one.

The difference is, there are no crusaders conquering the Middle East today, but there is a so-called caliphate [and most of the people it's killed have been Muslim].

JackW

Peter_the_Punter said:

Moses_ said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

CD13 said:

Indigo,

Except during The Crusades of course."

And all the rest. There aren't many Saints around. Christians know what they should do but recognise they fall short for reasons of expediency, greed, lust etc.

In Islam, you have the Koran and the Hadith so more room for your own interpretation. You can kill with an easy mind, if you convince yourself. Unfortunately, a small minority do.

There is no textual justification for murder in any of these documents, nor in the Bible, but the history of Islam and Christianity would lead you to think otherwise.

I understood that one Muslim should never kill another muslim according to the scriptures. However I also understand that if the Muslim undertaking the deed has decided the other is no longer of the faith or a good muslim then that's ok. Interesting interpretation and of course a neat escape clause?

It's an interpretation, Moses, not dissimilar to the interpretation the Crusaders employed when roasting heathen babies live over open fires.

I wondered where the Conservatives reputation for infant slaying derived.

Financier

The history of Islam shows that it has always extended its geographical regions of belief by physical conquest - indeed Mohammed as its major prophet lead by this example.

Originally Christianity propagated its faith by persuasion, until it became an official faith under the Roman Empire which developed into the Roman Catholic Church where self-interpretation of the Bible was discouraged and only the priesthood was allowed to transmit the interpretation as laid done by the Pope. So there became a series of persecutions by Roman Catholics on fellow Christians from their persecutions of the Waldensians right through to the Reformations. It is only on comparitively recent history that Roman Catholicism has ceased to be a major political power and so previously its faithful became caught up in political power struggles.

In more recent years, whilst there has been a decline in people of Christian faith in western Europe, there has been an increase in Africa and former Communist countries, including China. However in the UK and other European countries the Christian faith has become weak in leadership and belief. So Islam which has strict rules and certainty of faith with strong leaders has attracted those who seek leadership, certainty and a form of structure and security to their life.

However, immigration to the UK, for the first time has brought in people who want to use the laws of their faith (and culture) in preference to the law of the land as prescribed by parliament and interpreted by the judiciary.

This coupled with a rise in sleeping Islamic fundamentalism, has posed a new threat to western civilisations as well to those of independent faith in Africa and Asia.

At present the West is totally unsure how to react to these threats as it does not understand the mind of Islam.

Ninoinoz

Indigo said:

stodge said:

Of course, the cheap jibes and waspish comments hide the growing frustration bordering on panic in Conservative ranks that the polls aren't going to turn, Labour won't collapse and the UKIP defectors won't come back.

There probably are a few "soft kippers" around, maybe 3-4%, which might drift back, although given the predilection of most Tories to hurl abuse at anyone even remotely associated with UKIP, and patronise their concerns or describe them as racists, I think they probably need to work on their anger management, or look forward to opposition. It's possible that Ed might feck up even more, or implode at the TV debates (if they happen) but that seems like a high risk strategy.

Probably those Kippers who previously voted Labour will return first. They are, after all, in Opposition. Their problems will come when they are in office.

I somehow don't think that will soothe Conservative nerves before GE2015.

stodge

Indigo said:

There probably are a few "soft kippers" around, maybe 3-4%, which might drift back, although given the predilection of most Tories to hurl abuse at anyone even remotely associated with UKIP, and patronise their concerns or describe them as racists, I think they probably need to work on their anger management, or look forward to opposition. It's possible that Ed might feck up even more, or implode at the TV debates (if they happen) but that seems like a high risk strategy.

There's also the not unreasonable possibility that Ed M will do well in the debates and it will be Cameron struggling to defend the Government record on the deficit and immigration.

Socrates

Peter_the_Punter said:

CD13 said:

Indigo,

Except during The Crusades of course."

And all the rest. There aren't many Saints around. Christians know what they should do but recognise they fall short for reasons of expediency, greed, lust etc.

In Islam, you have the Koran and the Hadith so more room for your own interpretation. You can kill with an easy mind, if you convince yourself. Unfortunately, a small minority do.

There is no textual justification for murder in any of these documents, nor in the Bible, but the history of Islam and Christianity would lead you to think otherwise.

This is a tautology, however. Murder means "illegal killing". Killing banned by the Qu'ran is murder and thus has no textual justification. Killing allowed by the Qu'ran is not murder and has textual justification. The Qu'ran certainly endorses killing any members of an ethnic group that are considered to be fighting or persecuting Muslims elsewhere.

JackW

stodge said:

Indigo said:

There probably are a few "soft kippers" around, maybe 3-4%, which might drift back, although given the predilection of most Tories to hurl abuse at anyone even remotely associated with UKIP, and patronise their concerns or describe them as racists, I think they probably need to work on their anger management, or look forward to opposition. It's possible that Ed might feck up even more, or implode at the TV debates (if they happen) but that seems like a high risk strategy.

There's also the not unreasonable possibility that Ed M will do well in the debates and it will be Cameron struggling to defend the Government record on the deficit and immigration.

In the debates I look forward to Ed even remembering to mention the deficit and immigration.

Indigo

stodge said:

Indigo said:

There probably are a few "soft kippers" around, maybe 3-4%, which might drift back, although given the predilection of most Tories to hurl abuse at anyone even remotely associated with UKIP, and patronise their concerns or describe them as racists, I think they probably need to work on their anger management, or look forward to opposition. It's possible that Ed might feck up even more, or implode at the TV debates (if they happen) but that seems like a high risk strategy.

There's also the not unreasonable possibility that Ed M will do well in the debates and it will be Cameron struggling to defend the Government record on the deficit and immigration.

Possibly, although his attack on Cameron on the deficit is pretty weak because his plans were very similar, and the public is generally more sceptical that Labour would have actually stuck to their plans. He can bang on about "no ifs no buts" but its a pretty weak attack from Ed when his solution to the problem would be to do nothing (and try not to even talk about it)

Cyclefree

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Punter, it's strange how atrocities and betrayals in the Crusades tend to get put on Crusaders' doors but not Muslims. Both sides broke faith, accepting surrender on condition of being allow to live, and then massacring prisoners.

Part of it was just due to the age. The medieval world was a cruel one.

The difference is, there are no crusaders conquering the Middle East today, but there is a so-called caliphate [and most of the people it's killed have been Muslim].

What is also strange is how it's forgotten that Muslims were aggressors when they invaded the Holy Lands and other places. The Crusades were a response to that aggression. In the Middle East Muslims were the Johnny- come-latelys and by the standards of the time the existing peoples there were perfectly entitled to defend themselves from the invaders from the Arabian desert.

But now I'm off to explore the Asian side of Byzantium.....

stodge

JackW said:

In the debates I look forward to Ed even remembering to mention the deficit and immigration.

Yes, well, I know you're not a fan of Ed M any more than you seem to be a "fan" of any leader of the Labour Party.

I don't suppose many people rated Nick Clegg's chances of winning the first election debate last time which goes to show you might be wrong on Ed Miliband as well. Cameron had it east last time attacking the Labour Government's record - he may not find defending his own Government's record that easy and we know from past experience that he's far from unflappable if the questioning gets hostile.

Ninoinoz

Indigo said:

TOPPING said:

Cracking Polly this morning. Unaccountably the comments aren't yet open - the moderators presumably still in the gym and then knocking back the rum ration ahead of a demanding session.

theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/dec/16/tories-poor-people-iain-duncan-smith-behavioural-change

The moderators are going to be busy, that article is complete and utter tosh even by her own exemplary standards in this regard. Her basic problem appears to be that she feels the state should pay for people that continue to produce children with no thought to their own financial circumstances ad infinitum.

Considering her opposition to anything and everything the Catholic Church teaches, that article is unbelievably opportunist.

Her bleatings about the closure of Connexions (where conceptive advice was dispensed) were something to behold, but she never proposed any private funding, of course.

Polly seems to worship the State as a God, in her own image, and cannot accept that is not omnipotent, despite all the evidence to the contrary.

As an aside, I remember the Guardian becoming unreadable in the six months before GE2010. I do hope they do not repeat that mistake.

Financier

Brent Crude at $59.5

JohnO

CPI down from 1.3% to 1%
RPI at 2.0%, down from 2.3%

Socrates

CD13 said:

Islam gives its adherents more freedom to choose and that's why human nature can show its bad side.

I don't think this is true. The New Testament replaces with just two vaguely defined commandments: love thy God and love thy neighbour as yourself. Islam is much more like the Hebrew scrolls, with a very specific set of rules and regulations about diet, marriage, political organisation etc. That's why it's so hard to get devout Muslims to embrace democracy: their scripture specifically advocates another political system. The main argument for Muslims to accept it in Western nation is the requirement to obey the laws of the land, but that only applies to the laws as they stand. Many who currently accept democracy would switch to support for Shariah law, at least for Muslims, should Muslims become the majority.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. O/Mr. Financier, on a related note, Russian interest rates are up 6.5% to 17%.

A hefty rise.

A few years ago I remember reading about Zimbabwean rates (I think during the height of the country's economic woe), when they were 65,000%.

BenM

Down comes CPI inflation. 1.0% y/y.

JackW

stodge said:

JackW said:

In the debates I look forward to Ed even remembering to mention the deficit and immigration.

Yes, well, I know you're not a fan of Ed M any more than you seem to be a "fan" of any leader of the Labour Party.

I don't suppose many people rated Nick Clegg's chances of winning the first election debate last time which goes to show you might be wrong on Ed Miliband as well. Cameron had it east last time attacking the Labour Government's record - he may not find defending his own Government's record that easy and we know from past experience that he's far from unflappable if the questioning gets hostile.

Not so.

Kinnock pushed the Labour party toward electability from the pit of the despair of Michael Foot. I believed John Smith to have been an able man unlikely to have been in the pocket of the US foreign policy unlike Blair whose early social liberalism was to be commended but who lost his way completely after the first term with his inability to rein in Gordon Brown and all his works.

My assessment on leaders is based on their ability to win. In this respect Ed fits completely the mould of Foot, Kinnock, Hague, IDS and Howard - An electoral dud.

Cyclefree

Financier said:

The history of Islam shows that it has always extended its geographical regions of belief by physical conquest - indeed Mohammed as its major prophet lead by this example.

Originally Christianity propagated its faith by persuasion, until it became an official faith under the Roman Empire which developed into the Roman Catholic Church where self-interpretation of the Bible was discouraged and only the priesthood was allowed to transmit the interpretation as laid done by the Pope. So there became a series of persecutions by Roman Catholics on fellow Christians from their persecutions of the Waldensians right through to the Reformations. It is only on comparitively recent history that Roman Catholicism has ceased to be a major political power and so previously its faithful became caught up in political power struggles.

In more recent years, whilst there has been a decline in people of Christian faith in western Europe, there has been an increase in Africa and former Communist countries, including China. However in the UK and other European countries the Christian faith has become weak in leadership and belief. So Islam which has strict rules and certainty of faith with strong leaders has attracted those who seek leadership, certainty and a form of structure and security to their life.

However, immigration to the UK, for the first time has brought in people who want to use the laws of their faith (and culture) in preference to the law of the land as prescribed by parliament and interpreted by the judiciary.

This coupled with a rise in sleeping Islamic fundamentalism, has posed a new threat to western civilisations as well to those of independent faith in Africa and Asia.

At present the West is totally unsure how to react to these threats as it does not understand the mind of Islam.

There are plenty of people who do understand its nature and the growth of a fundamentalism largely incompatible with democracy and the rule of secular law but are unwilling to face up to what it may mean for public policy in the West I.e. that it may not be sensible to have large Muslim populations who are unwilling to follow secular law.

We are going to have to face the Thomas Beckett -Henry II dilemma sooner or later though and better peacefully than not, for all our sakes.

BenM

JackW said:

stodge said:

JackW said:

In the debates I look forward to Ed even remembering to mention the deficit and immigration.

Yes, well, I know you're not a fan of Ed M any more than you seem to be a "fan" of any leader of the Labour Party.

I don't suppose many people rated Nick Clegg's chances of winning the first election debate last time which goes to show you might be wrong on Ed Miliband as well. Cameron had it east last time attacking the Labour Government's record - he may not find defending his own Government's record that easy and we know from past experience that he's far from unflappable if the questioning gets hostile.

My assessment on leaders is based on their ability to win. In this respect Ed fits completely the mould of Foot, Kinnock, Hague, IDS and Howard - An electoral dud.

But leading in the polls 4 months before an election campaign against a PM who is also a dud.

chestnut

Plummeting oil price leaves cost-of-living narrative in tatters?