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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will Jim Murphy arrest Labour’s slide in the Scottish pol
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will Jim Murphy arrest Labour’s slide in the Scottish polls or will it get worse? Enter the competition
There’s little doubt that the biggest uncertainty about next May’s general election is what’s going to happen in the 41 seats that Labour currently holds in Scotland. If recent polling turns out to be right they could be left with barely half a dozen of them – an outcome that could have a catastrophic impact on the party’s hope to return to power.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30467897
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/johann-lamont-snubs-murphy-in-leadership-vote.26098559
http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/columnists/under-murphy-labour-cannot-be-reclaimed-trades-union-must-not-support-him.26082916
http://www.scotsman.com/news/cat-boyd-left-needs-to-fightback-against-blairite-1-3633968
And I thought the Tories were 'the stupid party'......
50 hours
Doing well - net Scotland (OA)
Cameron: -28 (-11)
Miliband: -66 (-53)
On topic - I doubt we will see much difference in this poll, but if Murphy campaigns like he did in Indyref we might see some movement in the new year.
Farage and his Ukip troopers represent a wonderful and seemingly endless spectacle of mirth and merriment and should be preserved for the nation and bottled as a counter weight to the burgeoning NHS cost of depression.
UKIP's turmoil in Scotland deepened last night after the right-wing anti-immigrant party suspended five senior members from its approved list of candidates.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/further-turmoil-for-ukip-in-scotland.26098550
What would he have said if he hadn't been on sedatives?
The spokesman's defence was "the rantings of an angry man". With defenders like that who needs critics!
Imagine this fellow in parliament!
Titter ....
Green and purple lines are interesting..
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
I'd love to see a fly-on-the-wall TV show of UKIP candidates campaigning. It'd be a hoot.
Like that one about EasyJet.
http://www.mediafire.com/view/8yid4isbyi9uh3l/YouGov polls 12 months to 14 December 2014.jpg#
Within this period the averaged party shares have changed as follows...
Tory -0.8 points from 33.4 to 32.6
Labour -5.8 points from 38.6 to 32.8
LibDem -2.4 points from 9.2 to 6.8
Ukip +2.6 points from 12.4 to 15
Green +4.8 points from 2 to 6.8
The great Barrel of manure tipping is underway.
Be careful, the report says he spoke of organising a "a peasant's hunt through Chigwell village". Unless, the BBC is ungrammatical, that means a hunt by peasants to overthrow their rightful masters.
Not something, I thought you'd be happy with.
Arf. - as excuses go, I think I prefer the old euphemism ‘tired and emotional’…!
The rest of the rant is likely to attract more voters than it puts off. The Mail are not doing down UKIP they are, unintentionally perhaps, blasting a dog whistle.
Whilst a few years ago they were a minor irritant, outside of barely relevant Euro elections, Ukip have now found themselves at the cusp of far greater importance rather swiftly. In doing so they have found the growing pains difficult to contend with.
Ukip are now the "Kevin the Teenager" of national politics - spouting nonsense and common sense often in the same sentence and being rashly let down by an electoral hormone rush they cannot control, too often associating with bad company and when confronted claiming everyone else is "so unfair".
Will they grow up to become a well adjusted political adult ? .... now there's a question.
Perchance this Kipper drops his "h's" and he meant pheasant ?
Nigel Farage’s General Election plans were thrown into doubt last night after Ukip’s single-biggest funder announced that he was suspending donations.
Multi-millionaire Paul Sykes, who has given Ukip about £1.3 million over the past year, said he wanted ‘grassroots’ members to finance the party’s Election campaign instead.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2872943/Farage-s-golden-boy-s-rant-pooftahs-Chigwell-Peasants-Chinky-bird-Astonishing-leaked-phone-calls-expose-outbursts-Ukip-man-sent-replace-Neil-Hamilton.html#ixzz3LrHjAiVl
"Indeed, and the rest of the rant is likely to attract more voters than it puts off."
Exactly my thoughts. If a survey I saw recently is correct, just over 30% of people said that they couldn't say what they really thought in case someone overheard and took offence.
I think the bigger story is that there might have been irregularities in the choice of their MEP - a stitch up in fact. Horrors ... that would never happen with the "big" parties, would it?
But if Ukip were limited to just 30% of the voters, it would be a disaster for them. How the other parties would mock.
People like this because they will get independent minded representatives who will kick and restrain the executive (what an MP is supposed to actually do) not cybermen who robotically troop through the lobby the whips tell them to without even bothering to read the legislation.
If and when they turn into polished professionals they will collapse because people dont trust them anymore.
Why do you think people like Jeremy Corbyn, Dennis Skinner and Frank Field keep winning their seats.
You just don't get it, do you?
"Chigwell: a glamorous town that likes to flash its cash
Appearances are all-important in Chigwell. Topped-up tans, regular blow drys and weekly manicures are regarded as essential – and homes are as well-groomed as the people who live in them.
Chigwell will be familiar to many from the TV series Essex Wives, which focused on a group of women living in the so-called golden triangle (Loughton and Buckhurst Hill make up the other points on it) and launched the career of former glamour model Jodie Marsh. There’s a good reason why so many of the locals look as polished as WAGs: they probably are WAGs. Spurs players trained here until last year, and Leyton Orient’s training ground is in the town.
The most famous resident – and lifelong Spurs fan – is Lord Alan Sugar, who not only owns a mansion but also a Turkish restaurant, Sheesh, in Chigwell village. The decor may be dazzlingly modern but the beams are original, as the half-timbered building is one of Chigwell’s oldest."
http://metro.co.uk/2013/12/19/chigwell-a-glamorous-town-that-likes-to-flash-its-cash-4184133/
In other words Chigwell (which is actually in Greater London Zone 4) is where Essex "peasants" go if they make shedloads of money and turn into metropolitan elite types, living in Chigwell and looking down their noses at less fortunate Essex "peasants" elsewhere.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/11292472/Iain-Duncan-Smith-benefits-cap-gets-jobless-back-to-work.html
The households that have lost the most in benefits payments since the cap was introduced in April 2013 are the most likely to have begun working for a living, the research concludes.
Claimants who saw their benefits cut by £200 a week or more were three times as likely to have found work after a year as households whose benefits were not affected, the findings suggest.
I always anticipate the PB grammarians correcting my uncouth utterances if I try to correct others. Thanks for the help.
Oh, and a belated welcome back.
A party that polls as most disliked is not in an enviable position as it clearly limits its potential voter pool and the likelihood of more concerted tactical voting against it.
Three months to the start of the next season of F1. Bah. Still, between then and now Caterham will sink or swim, and there's testing. Honda's engine will be of great interest.
Just out of interest. What exactly is the legal status of taping someones phone calls and publishing them in national newspapers?
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/nov/26/ukip-history-mps-government
As one of my friends used to say when we used some rather fruity language on the phone. "We will be in trouble now if Alistair Campbell is listening."
You just don't get it, do you. It is precisely because he refers to "Chinks", "Pooftahs" and "Peasants" (the later meaning jumped up working class people who think they are in the elite), and that using such language causes a fit of the vapours among right thinking people that he is attracting far more votes than he loses.
The phrase 'you just don't get it' isn't, if I may say so, your finest. It smacks of the sort of conspiratorial gnostic nonsense that will do you and the party no favours.
Incidentally, for the record, there is little to no evidence that UKIP are currently growing. Most polls now have them stagnating or slipping back from their dizzy Carswellian heights.
Cameron, the EU, Walnut whips, Somalians, the lizard people and Russell Brand must be feeling left out.
Meanwhile closer to home, not much rejoicing on the Jim Murphy election other than in the Scottish branch of the Labour Broadcasting Corporation. Good luck to those of you daft enough to try and predict the result of a Survation poll.
If you really think this guy is a vote winner then why not make him spokesman on BLT issues?
Pb.com is the main political site I visit precisely because it, mostly, doesn't descend to the sort of trolling and, frankly, bonkers commenting from which Guido suffers. Threads and most comments on pb.com are usually intelligent, well-informed, friendly and free from trolling. It would be great if we could keep it that way, whatever our political persuasion especially in the run-up to the General Election?
http://order-order.com/2014/12/13/de-re-commentari/
I don't want my MP to be anything to do with the government. I want them to stand up for the interests of me and my fellow constituents, not for the values of any party. I wan't them to be basically a shop steward, and a militant one at that.
I had long thought that the US system where Parliament is divorced from the Government was an anachronism, caused by the US declaring independence before the Prime Minster concept was invented, but I'm coming round to the view that it is a strength.
Just as long as he doesn't get his baps out in public!
Even people who like to sneer at others deserve representation.
There looks to be clear water developing between the two main parties.
Additionally with all derogatory words, there is a massive difference between using the word in the collective sense and using them as an insult to an individual person. I haven't got a great problem with someone referring to "pooftahs" in general conversation, unless it is a sly dig at one of the people involved in the conversation. I would find someone calling another gay person a pooftah very offensive and rude (although I think making it a criminal offence is going too far and counterproductive) unless both parties are on very good terms and no malice was intended.
Its the failure to distinguish the difference, as well as carrying on as if verbal insults are on a par with armed robbery, that has caused anger at what is known as "Political Correctness".
There is also a vast difference between using words such as "Chinks" and words such as N***** , because the latter carries historical baggage that implies that the person is unintelligent and even subhuman.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2872943/Farage-s-golden-boy-s-rant-pooftahs-Chigwell-Peasants-Chinky-bird-Astonishing-leaked-phone-calls-expose-outbursts-Ukip-man-sent-replace-Neil-Hamilton.html#ixzz3LrHjAiVl
We at Auchentennach enjoy the odd LibDem .... but any closer association with the yellow peril is entirely culinary.
JackW belongs to a well established strand of Jacobite Coalitionista that has its roots in Highland Scottish gatherings that strongly feature the passing of a magical Quaich and goes back into the mists of time when Prince Charles Edward Stuart was but a twinkle in James VIII eyes.
But UKIP did indeed start as a pressure group, hoping to influence rather than any desire for power.
Its first elected representatives were in the European Parliament where there is no hope of power, but of scrutiny instead.
I doubt that Farage has any desire for power.
His next challenge has to be to get into Holyrood and out of Westminster soonest. This site is understandably focussed on the implications of a Labour melt down in May of next year making it much more difficult for Labour to be the largest party but one of Salmond's successes is that for Scottish politics Holyrood is where the action is and where the leader needs to be.
In my opinion the base of SNP strength is not the losing of the referendum but their control of Holyrood. That is why I was forecasting the SNP would have gains in May next year over a year ago despite expecting the referendum to decide No.
It is a bit like what the Lib Dems do on a smaller scale using their activists and ultimately control of the local council to consolidate the position of their MP but on a larger scale. The key to diminishing the SNP in Scotland is to win back or at least remove the SNP majority in Holyrood. While they have that they will have a dominant position in Scottish politics. That is Murphy's challenge and he can't do it from Westminster.
Funny how some things just fall off the radar. I'm more bothered about no access to CBS News on FreeSat...
UKIP's Utopia is for many their embodiment of Hell on Earth.
There seems to have been some movement in their UKIP vote share odds.
10-15%, and 15-20% are now joint favourites at 2/1 (I think they were 7/4 and 9/4)
It's the similar to the SNP, they dont want to run the UK, they want to get Scotland out of the UK, but the only way to do that was to get elected in Westminster enough to start changing laws, now of course they have Holyrood and a second power base, but before getting elected in Westminster was the only game in town to be taken seriously.
I'd like the £100 prize please, as I try to avoid golf courses. Too many undesirables.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2872946/Ukip-game-rate-blacks-Muslims-win-100-golf-umbrella-Farage-race-row-rate-immigrant-survey.html
He is Clark Kent.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_cash_for_influence_scandal
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_cash_for_influence_scandal
Sadly, I doubt it will change many votes. The willingness of too many posters on here to excuse, indeed relish as plain-speaking, casual racism and virulent homophobia is indicative of that.
Always amusing to see those who say 'Go on then, stand for parliament if you feel so strongly' complain when someone does exactly that. The crime is, of course, having success and upsetting 'serious' politicians.
One of the reasons Russell Brand isn't taken seriously (except by the BBC) is that he has never offered himself for election. Nigel Farage, for all his faults, has.
I gather that she was actually pretty keen on him, was only a Labour member by association since she never paid her dues, didn't go to Oxford and can't spell the college she claimed to attend, isn't a PPE grad, nor a teacher - but otherwise an ideal candidate.
UKIP's putative BLT spokesman has at least, a more plausible CV.
Pot. Kettle. Black.
I concede in my youth that I sported a beard, have worn (deck) sandals but only in the warmest of climates and in a moment of weakness ordered a quiche for luncheon.
However these three failings never occurred at the same time and accordingly I was never tempted to the dark side of the Yellow Peril.
She's off on one.
As for homophobia I don't know a single Kipper that is in any way, shape or form homophobic, though I am sure there are some as there in all parties. Quick question, how do the Left square the Muslim stance on homosexuality or there abuse of womens rights?
I'm afraid the 'rough around the edges' person has had enough of being told what they should or should not believe by people that have no idea of their everyday life.