As an aside, I was talking with a friend a few weeks ago about Brand. She said she believes inBrand. Not believes him, or agrees with him, but believes in him.
What the bloody hell does that mean? That she believes in a hypocritical millionaire Marxist egotist whose coke-fuelled babble has understandably earned him the #parklife tag?
Listening to Brand is like having to sit through the losing speech in a school debate.
p.s. but he has a big and well-used willy so perhaps that's why she believes in him?
She's highly intelligent and very articulate, but very left. I think she's fed up with the direction Labour is taking, and wants the system to be shaken up a little. I can see why Brand's peculiar political mindset might appeal to her (and his 'looks' would help as well).
Just to cement matters: she is the most pro-EU person I know, and wants to move to France, partly because they have the right ideas. She's called anyone who wants out of the EU 'little Englanders' (including myself for being on the fence). She's an Anti-BOO'er. If she and (say) Richard Tyndall were to meet, there would be an explosion of pure political energy that would devastate half of Nottinghamshire.
Yet, as I say above, she is highly intelligent and very articulate. In fact, she has a far deeper knowledge of politics than myself, and can express that knowledge well. Much of what she says make sense, even if I disagree with it. I've learnt a great deal from talking to her. She would make a brilliant Labour politician of the old-Labour school.
France are probably further down the BOO road than we are. Not in terms of policy, but in terms of popular support. Marine Le Pen beats every left candidate and all but Sarkozy on the right in a run off. She is clearly completely clueless, just like all other pro-EU people.
Mr. Jessop, if it weren't for watching a fair amount of Youtube videos, I'd have no idea about her existence. I'm wryly amused at the seeming outrage about her bestselling book being ghost-written, or suchlike.
If I ask nicely can we not have a mindnumbingly boring debate about what defines Britishness?
Denying that pro EU people are British is rather like the Yes campaigners querying the Scottishness of the BT campaign.
If all true British patriots support the kippers, then 85% of us are having our nationality stolen.
That may well be
Why are you telling me?
Just standing up for British Enlightenment values!
On a more important note: Good odds on Leicester City today, can get 500/1 on us beating Manchester's other team 5:3. It is almost worth a quid...
Leicester are playing better, but still without a win since September, against a formidable Man City side.
On the plus side, it is a glorious day in the Midlands and our Goalkeeper has the best beard in the Premier League. So should be an entertaining day.
Just back Ulloa FGS every week is my system!
His goal drought is over, and Leicester tend to start well before crumpling, so probably a good value bet.
So its our Argies vs their Argies.
The Leicester team seem surprisingly positive (they came round the hospital this week) and seem to have confidence in the management that they can come good. Our back up goalie (Hamer) is in (Schmeical broke his metatarsal in the week) and Matt Upson is back from injury.
This is a pretty humongous lead for the SNP. Not as humongous as the Ipsos-MORI poll, but not far off. Even if a fair bit of it is froth, the SNP must have a very chunky lead indeed at present. The new Scottish Labour leader, whoever he (or, to pay due deference to a rank outsider, she) might be, has their work cut out.
The general consensus seems to be that SLAB’s support level is down to 25% and that things surely can’t get much worse. Being a life-long labour supporter now supporting the SNP and living in Central Scotland, my sense is that things are about to get much worse for SLAB before they get better. I think the core 25% is going to be further reduced by the following factors:
- SNP continuing to monopolise the centre left. – Nicola Sturgeon will attract the proportion of the female vote, which has been turned off the SNP by a dislike of Alex Salmond. – UKIP and the Greens will make further inroads, as in the rest of the UK. –The SSP will also take some support away. - A bit of the LibDem resurgence once they are free from the shackles of the coalition. – SLAB will struggle to get their vote out.
Taking account all the above, we could be looking at SLAB falling into the 15-20% area, which would be extinction point. The anointing of Jim Murphy as the potential saviour of SLAB, shows just how out of touch with Scottish politics the Labour party, political commentators and mainstream media have become.
In terms of tactical voting, I could envisage Conservatives voting SNP to add to SLAB’s woes and Greens voting SNP. I don’t envisage there being a “Unionist” alliance to try and combat the SNP, as the mainstream parties are all going to be at each other’s throats nationally, so any alliance would have no credibility.
I don't see that Ms Sturgeon will necessarily attract non-SNP female voters. As I understand it candidate gender does not have significant effect on voter choice.
The anointing of Jim Murphy as the potential saviour of SLAB, shows just how out of touch with Scottish politics the Labour party, political commentators and mainstream media have become.
Forgive me, but we had over two years of being told how 'out of touch with the Scottish people' the London based media/unionist stooges were in Indyref.
We were right.
The Nats were wrong.
Any arguments to back up your assertions, or are you just enjoying the noise in the Nat echo chamber which so ill-served your cause but a few weeks ago?
Just standing up for British Enlightenment values!
It's funny that you attacked me for a joke about Josias's mate, but you were silent when she (and a great many people on here) calls eurosceptics "Little Englanders".
*Cough* double standards *cough*.
Being a little Englander is a perfectly valid position, and one that fits as a description of Farages desire for Britain to leave the EU (which may mean England rather than Britain leaving) and desire to cease intervening in overseas military adventures.
What is it about being described as a Little Englander that you dislike? Is it the heightism?
The EU is not so much imperfect as abhorrent and unworkable. As we watch the eurozone slowly sink into the mire I expect those who are so very pro-EU will blame the British for 'not engaging' or some such lunacy.
If a five year depression, with EU policies resulting in tens of millions out of work, countries being re-classified as developing nations and no recovery in sight doesn't result in people realising the EU's a bad idea, I wonder what will.
Unfortunately, not everyone makes conclusions based on logic and evidence. Far too many do it based on sentimental feelings, arguments from authority, or just fitting in with the sort of people they hang out with.
As an aside, I was talking with a friend a few weeks ago about Brand. She said she believes inBrand. Not believes him, or agrees with him, but believes in him.
What the bloody hell does that mean? That she believes in a hypocritical millionaire Marxist egotist whose coke-fuelled babble has understandably earned him the #parklife tag?
Listening to Brand is like having to sit through the losing speech in a school debate.
p.s. but he has a big and well-used willy so perhaps that's why she believes in him?
She's highly intelligent and very articulate, but very left. I think she's fed up with the direction Labour is taking, and wants the system to be shaken up a little. I can see why Brand's peculiar political mindset might appeal to her (and his 'looks' would help as well).
Just to cement matters: she is the most pro-EU person I know, and wants to move to France, partly because they have the right ideas. She's called anyone who wants out of the EU 'little Englanders' (including myself for being on the fence). She's an Anti-BOO'er. If she and (say) Richard Tyndall were to meet, there would be an explosion of pure political energy that would devastate half of Nottinghamshire.
Yet, as I say above, she is highly intelligent and very articulate. In fact, she has a far deeper knowledge of politics than myself, and can express that knowledge well. Much of what she says make sense, even if I disagree with it. I've learnt a great deal from talking to her. She would make a brilliant Labour politician of the old-Labour school.
Hopefully, she will move to France. I suppose there is one advantage to the EU: we can get rid of these treacherous leftists that despise the UK's traditional mores and their fellow countrymen.
Whilst trying very hard to respect Isam's request that we avoid a full scale debate on Britishness, I would like to say that wanting people to leave the country simply because they hold a different opinion on something does strike me as thoroughly at odds with English/British values.
Hear hear.
(Although there is a long tradition of Brits fleeing to the continent when they end up on the wrong side of a political discussion)
More interestingly, I am reading David Starkey's book on Elizabeth I's childhood. One point he made in respect to Mary Tudor's struggles in reimposing Roman rule struck me:
When Henry VIII broke from Rome, he campaigned very strongly to create a national myth that England was different and separate to Europe. On one level this is just standard nationalism, but I did wonder if there is something in that foundation myth that directly feeds into our standoffish relationship with the EU
Mr. Llama, I was unaware of Saint Lucy's Day. Huzzah for her!
After Thaddeus [the disciple after whom I took my pen name] she's clearly the finest of the holy sorts. Except for the vampire lord Jesus, obviously.
I shan't be drinking, being a paragon of virtue, but may have some brandy-soaked Christmas cake later.
There is nothing virtuous about not drinking. Indeed, if you are wasting away, as per your earlier post, I can think of nothing better for you than getting yourself down to the Three Ferrets PH and outside a gallon of good stout, a brace of roast pheasant and a meat pie or two. You can do all of that in the middle of the fast of Advent without feeling guilty because it is your Saint's day. Be a shame to waste the opportunity of some nourishment and confine yourself to an illicit slice of cake..
Just standing up for British Enlightenment values!
It's funny that you attacked me for a joke about Josias's mate, but you were silent when she (and a great many people on here) calls eurosceptics "Little Englanders".
*Cough* double standards *cough*.
Being a little Englander is a perfectly valid position, and one that fits as a description of Farages desire for Britain to leave the EU (which may mean England rather than Britain leaving) and desire to cease intervening in overseas military adventures.
What is it about being described as a Little Englander that you dislike? Is it the heightism?
The term was used as an insulting epithet to opponents of the Boer War, with the implication that such people were unpatriotic and xenophobic for not wanting to engage in expanding the empire.
It's amazing how many Europhiles are quite content for the term to be thrown around without comment, but then take massive offence if a pro-European is called unpatriotic.
The anointing of Jim Murphy as the potential saviour of SLAB, shows just how out of touch with Scottish politics the Labour party, political commentators and mainstream media have become.
Forgive me, but we had over two years of being told how 'out of touch with the Scottish people' the London based media/unionist stooges were in Indyref.
We were right.
The Nats were wrong.
A point well worth making. It doesn't preclude them from being right this time, and there are no illusions about how well the Nats are doing, it seems certain they will improve significantly even if the greatest heights are not achieved, but the mocking tone at various suggestions from 'MSM' (a horrible little phrase overused by everyone to usually mean 'Media I disagree with' - and I say overused, because obviously there is a basis for some media being more mainstream than others) or the like loses some of its sting when the exact same tone, and even worse, was used about the IndyRef result.
I thought Yes would win, and I was wrong. I think the SNP will do very well in 2015 and I think we appear to be on a path to an inevitable Yes win at some point, possibly in the next 10 years. I hope I prove to be wrong about that as well, but even if I am right, the dismissal of contrary opinion automatically as resulting from being out of touch and/or idiots from Nats and other Yessers (and supporters of neither but who agree with their analysis) seems overconfident given previous predictions.
Owen Jones favours: Fingers crossed that @Neil4Scotland and @KatyClarkMP win the Scottish Labour leadership contest today. Both ran brilliant campaigns
(Although there is a long tradition of Brits fleeing to the continent when they end up on the wrong side of a political discussion)
More interestingly, I am reading David Starkey's book on Elizabeth I's childhood. One point he made in respect to Mary Tudor's struggles in reimposing Roman rule struck me:
When Henry VIII broke from Rome, he campaigned very strongly to create a national myth that England was different and separate to Europe. On one level this is just standard nationalism, but I did wonder if there is something in that foundation myth that directly feeds into our standoffish relationship with the EU
For me, Henry VIII was actually a typical European absolutist King. The big differences between us and Europe happened came from (1) the Civil War and it's aftermath, when limited constitutional government was cemented in Britain, and (2) the French Revolution and the Napoleonic Wars, when the rest of the continent shifted to Napoleonic civil law and a philosophy that the state and the nation are the same thing.
As I have said before the SNP will devastate labour at GE 2015 no matter who leads SLAB. The interesting part will be what happens in Westminster. The Scots desire for a second referendum is not going to go away and if David Cameron recognises this he could make a sensational offer to Alex Salmond for a second referendum in return for a confidence and supply agreement with the Conservatives. This would be the smartest of all moves as the economic position has dramatically changed for the SNP with oil down at circa 65 dollars and the currency problem unresolved making the case for Independence much more difficult. Also EVEL would be resolved and labour would have nowhere to go
Labour’s strategy should be 40 + 20. Fight hard in Scotland and smaller focused efforts in England & Wales. Fighting hard in two fronts is a recipe for failure. If the SNP overtake SLAB in Westminster that looks like a massive long term disaster for Labour. But can Labour effectively fight for all the marginals in England & Wales and hold off the SNP surge in Scotland? Labour has more financial constraints than the Conservatives and in Scotland is outnumbered by the SNP in cash, activists and members. Fighting hard on both fronts of Scotland and England & Wales will spread Labour’s resources too thin and both fronts seem to be heading for failure. What should matter more to Labour is the fight to the death in Scotland.
But Labour’s Leadership seem to think a new SLAB Leader and fingers crossed all will come good. They are not going to do the right thing and re-direct 80% of cash and workers to the 40 Scottish seats they need to fight hard over and only chase a few seats in England & Wales, such as 10 Conservative and 10 LD seats south of Scotland.
Is Ed Miliband going to follow the strategic choices of USA in WW2 or Germany in WW1 & WW2?
Interesting approach from DMil trying to relaunch his political career, apparently the 55% of the population currently wanting to leave the EU shouldn't vote for him.
The anointing of Jim Murphy as the potential saviour of SLAB, shows just how out of touch with Scottish politics the Labour party, political commentators and mainstream media have become.
Forgive me, but we had over two years of being told how 'out of touch with the Scottish people' the London based media/unionist stooges were in Indyref.
We were right.
The Nats were wrong.
We had two years of being told that the Yes vote wouldn't break 35% and that talking about it being over 40 was pure fantasy.
"When Henry VIII broke from Rome, he campaigned very strongly to create a national myth that England was different and separate to Europe."
Myth? Myth? What do you mean myth? England is different and separate from Europe, and was in Henry VIII's day. Where does the myth bit come from?
Technically, I'm using "myth" in the sense of mythos vs. logos
The precise quote, though, is:
"For Henry VIII's reinvention of England had been extraordinarily successful. The sense of England alone, uniquely separate from Rome, had stuck a chord. Instead of being a course of anxiety, England's isolation was a matter of pride. 'If God be for us, who shall be against us?; had become a new national motto and, to be welcome once more on English shores, the eternal verities of the Universal Church had to present themselves in terms of the particular national history of England"
The anointing of Jim Murphy as the potential saviour of SLAB, shows just how out of touch with Scottish politics the Labour party, political commentators and mainstream media have become.
Forgive me, but we had over two years of being told how 'out of touch with the Scottish people' the London based media/unionist stooges were in Indyref.
We were right.
The Nats were wrong.
We had two years of being told that the Yes vote wouldn't break 35% and that talking about it being over 40 was pure fantasy.
And we had two years of being told Yes would win......
The anointing of Jim Murphy as the potential saviour of SLAB, shows just how out of touch with Scottish politics the Labour party, political commentators and mainstream media have become.
Forgive me, but we had over two years of being told how 'out of touch with the Scottish people' the London based media/unionist stooges were in Indyref.
We were right.
The Nats were wrong.
Any arguments to back up your assertions, or are you just enjoying the noise in the Nat echo chamber which so ill-served your cause but a few weeks ago?
The refusal of many on this site to even entertain the possibility that the SNP are 20% ahead of SLAB is clear evidence that you are out of touch with the reality on the ground in Scotland. SLAB and the MSM's constant demonising of the SNP is not going to win back any voters, if anything will drive yet more support to the SNP.
Patrick Wintour: Jim Murphy has been elected Scottish Labour Party leader. Interesting to see how Unite welcome this in view of remarks during campaign.
The general consensus seems to be that SLAB’s support level is down to 25% and that things surely can’t get much worse. Being a life-long labour supporter now supporting the SNP and living in Central Scotland, my sense is that things are about to get much worse for SLAB before they get better. I think the core 25% is going to be further reduced by the following factors:
- SNP continuing to monopolise the centre left. – Nicola Sturgeon will attract the proportion of the female vote, which has been turned off the SNP by a dislike of Alex Salmond. – UKIP and the Greens will make further inroads, as in the rest of the UK. –The SSP will also take some support away. - A bit of the LibDem resurgence once they are free from the shackles of the coalition. – SLAB will struggle to get their vote out.
Taking account all the above, we could be looking at SLAB falling into the 15-20% area, which would be extinction point. The anointing of Jim Murphy as the potential saviour of SLAB, shows just how out of touch with Scottish politics the Labour party, political commentators and mainstream media have become.
In terms of tactical voting, I could envisage Conservatives voting SNP to add to SLAB’s woes and Greens voting SNP. I don’t envisage there being a “Unionist” alliance to try and combat the SNP, as the mainstream parties are all going to be at each other’s throats nationally, so any alliance would have no credibility.
I don't see that Ms Sturgeon will necessarily attract non-SNP female voters. As I understand it candidate gender does not have significant effect on voter choice.
The evidence is that candidate gender has a positive or negative influence according to the issues that they are associated with, so female candidates tend to be viewed in a positive light on traditionally "female" topics like health, education and family, male candidates tend to be viewed more positively when they are associated with topics like defense and finance. All things being equal women give a slight preference for women candidates, and men for male candidates, but its modified by the issues they are tackling, and swamped by any party allegiance.
The general consensus seems to be that SLAB’s support level is down to 25% and that things surely can’t get much worse. Being a life-long labour supporter now supporting the SNP and living in Central Scotland, my sense is that things are about to get much worse for SLAB before they get better. I think the core 25% is going to be further reduced by the following factors:
- SNP continuing to monopolise the centre left. – Nicola Sturgeon will attract the proportion of the female vote, which has been turned off the SNP by a dislike of Alex Salmond. – UKIP and the Greens will make further inroads, as in the rest of the UK. –The SSP will also take some support away. - A bit of the LibDem resurgence once they are free from the shackles of the coalition. – SLAB will struggle to get their vote out.
Taking account all the above, we could be looking at SLAB falling into the 15-20% area, which would be extinction point. The anointing of Jim Murphy as the potential saviour of SLAB, shows just how out of touch with Scottish politics the Labour party, political commentators and mainstream media have become.
In terms of tactical voting, I could envisage Conservatives voting SNP to add to SLAB’s woes and Greens voting SNP. I don’t envisage there being a “Unionist” alliance to try and combat the SNP, as the mainstream parties are all going to be at each other’s throats nationally, so any alliance would have no credibility.
I don't see that Ms Sturgeon will necessarily attract non-SNP female voters. As I understand it candidate gender does not have significant effect on voter choice.
The evidence is that candidate gender has a positive or negative influence according to the issues that they are associated with, so female candidates tend to be viewed in a positive light on traditionally "female" topics like health, education and family, male candidates tend to be viewed more positively when they are associated with topics like defense and finance.
Interesting you should say that, because in the Scottish parliament context defence is irrelevant (except in the 'wrong way' for the Unionists when it comes to Trident) and finance is in the old style bank manager like hands of Mr Swinney. Many of the previously chosen Labour battlegrounds are in fact health, education, family, child care ...
The anointing of Jim Murphy as the potential saviour of SLAB, shows just how out of touch with Scottish politics the Labour party, political commentators and mainstream media have become.
Forgive me, but we had over two years of being told how 'out of touch with the Scottish people' the London based media/unionist stooges were in Indyref.
We were right.
The Nats were wrong.
We had two years of being told that the Yes vote wouldn't break 35% and that talking about it being over 40 was pure fantasy.
Indeed we did
Compare the attitude shown here to scottish independence supporters "get over it, you lost" rather than acknowledging it was much much closer than people on here predicted, with the attitude when ukip won the euros, clacton and rochester which was "aah but you didn't win by as far as the opinion polls suggested" rather than "fair enough, you won"
That's why it is often difficult to use this site as a betting resource, because so many people spin rather than accept facts, and shift their opinion solely on what's sounds best for the team they support/worst for the one they dislike most
Murphy is a far more formidable politician than his predecessor, Johann Lamont. But he faces a mighty task. A YouGov poll of Scotland ahead of the UK general election, published this morning, finds the SNP on 47% with Labour 20 points behind......
However, Murphy has energy and no fear of the SNP, both qualities that Scottish Labour has been lacking in recent times. He is also a formidable campaigner: he has turned his once Tory seat into a seat for life.
The question now is how much of Labour's UK resources will Jim Murphy be able to persuade EdM to re-direct to Scotland? Time is also running out for it to be of use and to be spent within the laws and logistical challenges. Any new Plan needs to be in place by January 2nd. Two weeks to save SLAB?
Some poor economic data this week with both industrial output and the trade balance having large negative revisions to previous months.
While the OBN reports that consumers are living beyond their means at possibly the greatest rate ever - the same OBN which predicts a massive household borrowing binge so that it can make Osborne's economic predictions fit into its model.
And a horrible week on the stock market as well.
At the start of the year the 'experts' were complacently assuming that the FTSE100 would imminently surpass its all time high (which was as long ago as 1999). Not only has it failed to do that it now looks likely that it will finish the year lower than it started.
This 15 years of stock market stagnation plus the six years of 'emergency' zero interest rates has led to very poor investment returns. Far below what people were led to expect 20 or 30 years ago.
And this is another driver for UKIP support.
Mr & Mrs C1C2 don't want to return to the 1950s as the media tediously claims. No, what they want is the future they were promised not the present they're receiving.
OT Just a quickie - just watched the story of Sixto Rodriguez [bigger than Elvis in SAfrica, unknown everywhere else] and it's brilliant. 'Searching For Sugarman'. If you like Latino music with a 70s twang - I can't recommend his stuff too highly. Like Jose Feliciano meets Bob Dylan.
I'm puzzled by the thread header which seems to suggest the YG are unreliable on voting intention because they got one INDYREF poll wrong. I believe most of the recent Scottish polls tend to support the YG figures on voting intention.
** Introducing the Putney Upside Down Inverted Nonsense Guide (aka "PUDING Index") ** A few days ago I suggested that as a result of the two major parties together gaining a progressively smaller combined share of the vote, currently barely more than 65%, an alternative method of gauging which of these might win the General Election might be to compare which is leaking the higher percentage of votes to the left and right minority parties respectively. My earlier suggestion was simply to compare the UKIP vote with that of the LibDems and then by identifying a margin of >7% or <5% thereby determine whether Labour or the Conservatives would win the main contest. I now propose to vary and indeed simplify this equation somewhat by introducing the PUDING Index, which compares the UKIP vote % (which in the main is taking votes from the Tories) with the LibDem+SNP+Greens combined vote % (which in the main is taking votes from Labour). Looking at how this works in practice, the current UKIP share of the vote is approx 17%, which compares with LibDem 7% + SNP 3% + Greens 6% = 16% combined. Consequently Labour is seen to be "leaking" a 1% lower share of the National Vote to other left leaning parties than are the Tories to UKIP. This reflects the fact that based on Sporting Index, Stephen Fisher's Projection, etc., Labour are currently marginally the favourites to win the most seats on 7 May. I do hope that PBers will embrace the PUDING Index and that it will become as essential a tool on the site as the longer established Sunil's ELBOW and JackW's ARSE. As ever, DYOR.
George Eaton: Scottish Labour leadership election result: Sarah Boyack 9.42%, Neil Findlay 34.99%, Jim Murphy 55.59%.
Pretty convincing win for Murphy
20 percentage points: as the MSPs and MPs have 33.3 points of the total vote, I wonder how much of that 20% was accounted for by the small fact that the MSP and MP voting was reportedly not by secret ballot.
The YouGov poll showing Yes ahead may well have been accurate, as Lord Ashcroft constantly reminds us opinion polls are only snapshots in time and views constantly change.
Wriggle Mark II
A tiresome load of bollocks that Mike S, who is in love with Ashcroft, has seized on. Ashcroft came up with this pile of horseshit because he was 17% out at Middleton and Heywood just four days before the vote.
Snapshot? Opinion poll? Call it what you will, there's no excuse to be so bloody inaccurate if you claim to be a professional pollster. The whole point of a decent opinion poll is to try to detect what is happening and therefore for us to be able to extrapolate from that, with reasonable accuracy, what is likely to happen. So unless you think seismic changes took place between that unique YouGov poll and the vote, or between Ashcroft's 17% error and four days later, for which there is no evidence, then the Snapshot mantra is just smoke and mirrors for piss poor polling performance.
The other financial problem for Labour is that the Leadership of Unite, their biggest donor, are politically closer to the socialism of Nicola than that of Murphy. Would Unite agree to boost Murphy's campaign in Scotland or will they choose to spend their money mainly in England & Wales?
The general consensus seems to be that SLAB’s support level is down to 25% and that things surely can’t get much worse. Being a life-long labour supporter now supporting the SNP and living in Central Scotland, my sense is that things are about to get much worse for SLAB before they get better. I think the core 25% is going to be further reduced by the following factors:
- SNP continuing to monopolise the centre left. – Nicola Sturgeon will attract the proportion of the female vote, which has been turned off the SNP by a dislike of Alex Salmond. – UKIP and the Greens will make further inroads, as in the rest of the UK. –The SSP will also take some support away. - A bit of the LibDem resurgence once they are free from the shackles of the coalition. – SLAB will struggle to get their vote out.
Taking account all the above, we could be looking at SLAB falling into the 15-20% area, which would be extinction point. The anointing of Jim Murphy as the potential saviour of SLAB, shows just how out of touch with Scottish politics the Labour party, political commentators and mainstream media have become.
In terms of tactical voting, I could envisage Conservatives voting SNP to add to SLAB’s woes and Greens voting SNP. I don’t envisage there being a “Unionist” alliance to try and combat the SNP, as the mainstream parties are all going to be at each other’s throats nationally, so any alliance would have no credibility.
I don't see that Ms Sturgeon will necessarily attract non-SNP female voters. As I understand it candidate gender does not have significant effect on voter choice.
I know a fair number of female voters whose dislike of Alex Salmond was a major consideration. I think we can all agree that Alex Salmond is a figure who polarises peoples opinions. Time will tell whether Sturgeon's approach will prove less divisive.
This "turnip" consistently said that YES would get surprisingly close, but would ultimately fail because the SNP did not have answers to basic issues.
Those issues are not in play next May. They have one quest - to get the best deal for Scotland from Westminster. I don't see how that message won't be fabulously popular and significantly motivating for many not previously engaged in UK-wide elections.
** Introducing the Putney Upside Down Inverted Nonsense Guide (aka "PUDING Index") ** A few days ago I suggested that as a result of the two major parties together gaining a progressively smaller combined share of the vote, currently barely more than 65%, an alternative method of gauging which of these might win the General Election might be to compare which is leaking the higher percentage of votes to the left and right minority parties respectively. My earlier suggestion was simply to compare the UKIP vote with that of the LibDems and then by identifying a margin of >7% or <5% thereby determine whether Labour or the Conservatives would win the main contest. I now propose to vary and indeed simplify this equation somewhat by introducing the PUDING Index, which compares the UKIP vote % (which in the main is taking votes from the Tories) with the LibDem+SNP+Greens combined vote % (which in the main is taking votes from Labour). Looking at how this works in practice, the current UKIP share of the vote is approx 17%, which compares with LibDem 7% + SNP 3% + Greens 6% = 16% combined. Consequently Labour is seen to be "leaking" a 1% lower share of the National Vote to other left leaning parties than are the Tories to UKIP. This reflects the fact that based on Sporting Index, Stephen Fisher's Projection, etc., Labour are currently marginally the favourites to win the most seats on 7 May. I do hope that PBers will embrace the PUDING Index and that it will become as essential a tool on the site as the longer established Sunil's ELBOW and JackW's ARSE. As ever, DYOR.</p>
I doubt if the UKIP 17% is anything like drawn largely from the Tories - probably something like 12/7 at best.
The other financial problem for Labour is that the Leadership of Unite, their biggest donor, are politically closer to the socialism of Nicola than that of Murphy. Would Unite agree to boost Murphy's campaign in Scotland or will they choose to spend their money mainly in England & Wales?
The other financial problem for Labour is that the Leadership of Unite, their biggest donor, are politically closer to the socialism of Nicola than that of Murphy. Would Unite agree to boost Murphy's campaign in Scotland or will they choose to spend their money mainly in England & Wales?
Given the SNP threat in Scotland to the chances of Labour overall in the country then I don't see them having much choice, even though unions did not vote for him. Unless they wish another coalition or Tory win.
They would Hold nose and sign the cheques. Hypocritical stances won't come into it.
The other financial problem for Labour is that the Leadership of Unite, their biggest donor, are politically closer to the socialism of Nicola than that of Murphy. Would Unite agree to boost Murphy's campaign in Scotland or will they choose to spend their money mainly in England & Wales?
Murphy lost the Union section of the vote.
Exactly, which is why re-directing cash and resources north may prove impossible.
As an aside, I was talking with a friend a few weeks ago about Brand. She said she believes inBrand. Not believes him, or agrees with him, but believes in him.
What the bloody hell does that mean? That she believes in a hypocritical millionaire Marxist egotist whose coke-fuelled babble has understandably earned him the #parklife tag?
Listening to Brand is like having to sit through the losing speech in a school debate.
p.s. but he has a big and well-used willy so perhaps that's why she believes in him?
She's highly intelligent and very articulate, but very left. I think she's fed up with the direction Labour is taking, and wants the system to be shaken up a little. I can see why Brand's peculiar political mindset might appeal to her (and his 'looks' would help as well).
Just to cement matters: she is the most pro-EU person I know, and wants to move to France, partly because they have the right ideas. She's called anyone who wants out of the EU 'little Englanders' (including myself for being on the fence). She's an Anti-BOO'er. If she and (say) Richard Tyndall were to meet, there would be an explosion of pure political energy that would devastate half of Nottinghamshire.
Yet, as I say above, she is highly intelligent and very articulate. In fact, she has a far deeper knowledge of politics than myself, and can express that knowledge well. Much of what she says make sense, even if I disagree with it. I've learnt a great deal from talking to her. She would make a brilliant Labour politician of the old-Labour school.
Hopefully, she will move to France. I suppose there is one advantage to the EU: we can get rid of these treacherous leftists that despise the UK's traditional mores and their fellow countrymen.
There is a strong leftist and Internationalist strand of politics that is very traditional in Britain.
I am one of many who will not let Farage define what Britishness means. George Galloway is as British as the Queen.
Galloway is Irish Catholic as is his brand of very left wing anti English socialism.
I would take any Scottish poll with a very large pinch of salt right now. Anyone in Scotland who is involved in social media be it Facebook or Twitter will have experienced the backlash from the Nats and I suspect in the same way people said to pollsters they would vote Yes but voted No they will also say they're voting SNP but actually vote a different way. Former friends stating that they view No supporteres as traitors, scum, cowards and quislings may well have an impact on how people respond to pollsters. I suspect that once again, like 'free' by 93 the SNP will hype themselves up only to fall flat on their face.
Just standing up for British Enlightenment values!
It's funny that you attacked me for a joke about Josias's mate, but you were silent when she (and a great many people on here) calls eurosceptics "Little Englanders".
*Cough* double standards *cough*.
Being a little Englander is a perfectly valid position, and one that fits as a description of Farages desire for Britain to leave the EU (which may mean England rather than Britain leaving) and desire to cease intervening in overseas military adventures.
What is it about being described as a Little Englander that you dislike? Is it the heightism?
The term was used as an insulting epithet to opponents of the Boer War, with the implication that such people were unpatriotic and xenophobic for not wanting to engage in expanding the empire.
It's amazing how many Europhiles are quite content for the term to be thrown around without comment, but then take massive offence if a pro-European is called unpatriotic.
In retrospect the Little Englanders were probably right about the Boer war.
A policy of withdrawal from foreign adventures is one of the few things I agree with Farage. Apart from his sudden conversion to the cause of the traditional model of the NHS.
There was some discussion yesterday about how Cameron was an unprincipled chancer who shifted left to gain popularity. Not at all like Farage's sudden opposition to private companies in the NHS. No not at all...
I would take any Scottish poll with a very large pinch of salt right now. Anyone in Scotland who is involved in social media be it Facebook or Twitter will have experienced the backlash from the Nats and I suspect in the same way people said to pollsters they would vote Yes but voted No they will also say they're voting SNP but actually vote a different way. Former friends stating that they view No supporteres as traitors, scum, cowards and quislings may well have an impact on how people respond to pollsters. I suspect that once again, like 'free' by 93 the SNP will hype themselves up only to fall flat on their face.
Even if your pinch of salt comes in 5% slabs, a 5% swing from this poll from the SNP to Labour would still give the SNP a 10% lead.
"Suffice it to say the results are interesting" says John Rentoul commenting on a ComRes opinion poll in The Independent on Sunday tomorrow, shared with the Sunday Mirror. No prizes for guessing which party is likely to be shown as leading then, so perhaps not so interesting after all!
I would take any Scottish poll with a very large pinch of salt right now. Anyone in Scotland who is involved in social media be it Facebook or Twitter will have experienced the backlash from the Nats and I suspect in the same way people said to pollsters they would vote Yes but voted No they will also say they're voting SNP but actually vote a different way. Former friends stating that they view No supporteres as traitors, scum, cowards and quislings may well have an impact on how people respond to pollsters. I suspect that once again, like 'free' by 93 the SNP will hype themselves up only to fall flat on their face.
Comments
Gosh! Whoever would've thought it?
So its our Argies vs their Argies.
The Leicester team seem surprisingly positive (they came round the hospital this week) and seem to have confidence in the management that they can come good. Our back up goalie (Hamer) is in (Schmeical broke his metatarsal in the week) and Matt Upson is back from injury.
It may not be the 0:7 goal festival predicted.
After Thaddeus [the disciple after whom I took my pen name] she's clearly the finest of the holy sorts. Except for the vampire lord Jesus, obviously.
I shan't be drinking, being a paragon of virtue, but may have some brandy-soaked Christmas cake later.
We were right.
The Nats were wrong.
Any arguments to back up your assertions, or are you just enjoying the noise in the Nat echo chamber which so ill-served your cause but a few weeks ago?
What is it about being described as a Little Englander that you dislike? Is it the heightism?
Unfortunately, not everyone makes conclusions based on logic and evidence. Far too many do it based on sentimental feelings, arguments from authority, or just fitting in with the sort of people they hang out with.
(Although there is a long tradition of Brits fleeing to the continent when they end up on the wrong side of a political discussion)
More interestingly, I am reading David Starkey's book on Elizabeth I's childhood. One point he made in respect to Mary Tudor's struggles in reimposing Roman rule struck me:
When Henry VIII broke from Rome, he campaigned very strongly to create a national myth that England was different and separate to Europe. On one level this is just standard nationalism, but I did wonder if there is something in that foundation myth that directly feeds into our standoffish relationship with the EU
It's amazing how many Europhiles are quite content for the term to be thrown around without comment, but then take massive offence if a pro-European is called unpatriotic.
I thought Yes would win, and I was wrong. I think the SNP will do very well in 2015 and I think we appear to be on a path to an inevitable Yes win at some point, possibly in the next 10 years. I hope I prove to be wrong about that as well, but even if I am right, the dismissal of contrary opinion automatically as resulting from being out of touch and/or idiots from Nats and other Yessers (and supporters of neither but who agree with their analysis) seems overconfident given previous predictions.
http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/blogs/prospector-blog/scottish-labour-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-leadership-election
"When Henry VIII broke from Rome, he campaigned very strongly to create a national myth that England was different and separate to Europe."
Myth? Myth? What do you mean myth? England is different and separate from Europe, and was in Henry VIII's day. Where does the myth bit come from?
I hope they all walked there....
"Money doesn't grow on trees', so the saying goes. But muesli does. Because it contains dried fruit and nuts, and lots of other things as well.
Soooo..... Is this just another one of Labours "magic Muesli trees? "
If the SNP overtake SLAB in Westminster that looks like a massive long term disaster for Labour. But can Labour effectively fight for all the marginals in England & Wales and hold off the SNP surge in Scotland? Labour has more financial constraints than the Conservatives and in Scotland is outnumbered by the SNP in cash, activists and members. Fighting hard on both fronts of Scotland and England & Wales will spread Labour’s resources too thin and both fronts seem to be heading for failure. What should matter more to Labour is the fight to the death in Scotland.
But Labour’s Leadership seem to think a new SLAB Leader and fingers crossed all will come good. They are not going to do the right thing and re-direct 80% of cash and workers to the 40 Scottish seats they need to fight hard over and only chase a few seats in England & Wales, such as 10 Conservative and 10 LD seats south of Scotland.
Is Ed Miliband going to follow the strategic choices of USA in WW2 or Germany in WW1 & WW2?
The precise quote, though, is:
"For Henry VIII's reinvention of England had been extraordinarily successful. The sense of England alone, uniquely separate from Rome, had stuck a chord. Instead of being a course of anxiety, England's isolation was a matter of pride. 'If God be for us, who shall be against us?; had become a new national motto and, to be welcome once more on English shores, the eternal verities of the Universal Church had to present themselves in terms of the particular national history of England"
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Elizabeth-Apprenticeship-Dr-David-Starkey/dp/0099286572/ref=sr_1_1/276-6413238-2506564?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1418467387&sr=1-1&keywords=david+starkey+-+elizabeth
A little out of my period, but certainly struck me as plausible.
Scottish Labour leadership election result: Sarah Boyack 9.42%, Neil Findlay 34.99%, Jim Murphy 55.59%.
Pretty convincing win for Murphy
But he's got one heck of a hard job to do, and choosing someone who is currently outside Holyrood is interesting.
Compare the attitude shown here to scottish independence supporters "get over it, you lost" rather than acknowledging it was much much closer than people on here predicted, with the attitude when ukip won the euros, clacton and rochester which was "aah but you didn't win by as far as the opinion polls suggested" rather than "fair enough, you won"
That's why it is often difficult to use this site as a betting resource, because so many people spin rather than accept facts, and shift their opinion solely on what's sounds best for the team they support/worst for the one they dislike most
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/12/jim-murphy-wins-scottish-labour-leadership-contest/
Murphy is a far more formidable politician than his predecessor, Johann Lamont. But he faces a mighty task. A YouGov poll of Scotland ahead of the UK general election, published this morning, finds the SNP on 47% with Labour 20 points behind......
However, Murphy has energy and no fear of the SNP, both qualities that Scottish Labour has been lacking in recent times. He is also a formidable campaigner: he has turned his once Tory seat into a seat for life.
While the OBN reports that consumers are living beyond their means at possibly the greatest rate ever - the same OBN which predicts a massive household borrowing binge so that it can make Osborne's economic predictions fit into its model.
And a horrible week on the stock market as well.
At the start of the year the 'experts' were complacently assuming that the FTSE100 would imminently surpass its all time high (which was as long ago as 1999). Not only has it failed to do that it now looks likely that it will finish the year lower than it started.
This 15 years of stock market stagnation plus the six years of 'emergency' zero interest rates has led to very poor investment returns. Far below what people were led to expect 20 or 30 years ago.
And this is another driver for UKIP support.
Mr & Mrs C1C2 don't want to return to the 1950s as the media tediously claims. No, what they want is the future they were promised not the present they're receiving.
Bought both his albums off the back of it. A taste > youtube.com/watch?v=ZWjUuWzF43I
** Introducing the Putney Upside Down Inverted Nonsense Guide (aka "PUDING Index") **
A few days ago I suggested that as a result of the two major parties together gaining a progressively smaller combined share of the vote, currently barely more than 65%, an alternative method of gauging which of these might win the General Election might be to compare which is leaking the higher percentage of votes to the left and right minority parties respectively.
My earlier suggestion was simply to compare the UKIP vote with that of the LibDems and then by identifying a margin of >7% or <5% thereby determine whether Labour or the Conservatives would win the main contest.
I now propose to vary and indeed simplify this equation somewhat by introducing the PUDING Index, which compares the UKIP vote % (which in the main is taking votes from the Tories) with the LibDem+SNP+Greens combined vote % (which in the main is taking votes from Labour).
Looking at how this works in practice, the current UKIP share of the vote is approx 17%, which compares with LibDem 7% + SNP 3% + Greens 6% = 16% combined. Consequently Labour is seen to be "leaking" a 1% lower share of the National Vote to other left leaning parties than are the Tories to UKIP. This reflects the fact that based on Sporting Index, Stephen Fisher's Projection, etc., Labour are currently marginally the favourites to win the most seats on 7 May.
I do hope that PBers will embrace the PUDING Index and that it will become as essential a tool on the site as the longer established Sunil's ELBOW and JackW's ARSE.
As ever, DYOR.
Funny, all the same, unlike ... Wriggle Mark II
A tiresome load of bollocks that Mike S, who is in love with Ashcroft, has seized on. Ashcroft came up with this pile of horseshit because he was 17% out at Middleton and Heywood just four days before the vote.
Snapshot? Opinion poll? Call it what you will, there's no excuse to be so bloody inaccurate if you claim to be a professional pollster. The whole point of a decent opinion poll is to try to detect what is happening and therefore for us to be able to extrapolate from that, with reasonable accuracy, what is likely to happen. So unless you think seismic changes took place between that unique YouGov poll and the vote, or between Ashcroft's 17% error and four days later, for which there is no evidence, then the Snapshot mantra is just smoke and mirrors for piss poor polling performance.
Those issues are not in play next May. They have one quest - to get the best deal for Scotland from Westminster. I don't see how that message won't be fabulously popular and significantly motivating for many not previously engaged in UK-wide elections.
Which spells doom for Labour.
http://paulhutcheon.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/scottish-labour-tensions-part-54.html
"Of course I voted for you Neil...."
They would Hold nose and sign the cheques. Hypocritical stances won't come into it.
http://labourlist.org/2014/12/murphy-wins-scottish-leadership-contest/
Reduce your quantity of posting, easily achieved.
Increase the quality of the remainder, may be a bridge too far.
A policy of withdrawal from foreign adventures is one of the few things I agree with Farage. Apart from his sudden conversion to the cause of the traditional model of the NHS.
There was some discussion yesterday about how Cameron was an unprincipled chancer who shifted left to gain popularity. Not at all like Farage's sudden opposition to private companies in the NHS. No not at all...
No prizes for guessing which party is likely to be shown as leading then, so perhaps not so interesting after all!