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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Scottish LAB prepares to unveil its new leader YouGov has the SNP 20% ahead
New YouGov Scotland poll for the Sun has the SNP taking 20% lead over LAB
SNP 47%
LAB 27%
CON 16%
LD 3%
GRN 3%
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My first encounter with Murphy was equally illuminating. When I was Gordon Brown’s media adviser in September 2008, I approached Murphy at a dinner, warned him there was a rumour that he was planning to resign, and he should get out and deny it. It was a standard tactic to intimidate a potentially wobbly minister by making them think we had eyes everywhere. He looked at me with a contemptuous smile and snorted: ‘Away and eat your chicken, you.’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2817346/As-Ed-faces-disaster-north-border-Labour-s-mafioso-stabbing-Scotland-makes-Macbeth-look-like-Mrs-Brown-s-Boys-death-Union.html
Squeezed household finances should spell political trouble for the chancellor. But tumbling oil prices have changed the sums"
http://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2014/dec/10/falling-oil-price-cheap-petrol
http://www.newsnetscotland.scot/index.php/component/content/article/171-snp-boost-as-final-yougov-poll-shows-late-surge.html
It's obvious the SNP are way ahead but I do think pollsters struggle with Scotland specific polling.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11291335/David-Miliband-hint-at-return-to-British-politics.html
EdM is not exactly popular north of the border, is he?
If you consider yourself a Scot first and a Brit second, then why would you vote for one of the parties that gave the Pledge rather than the party that will hold Westminster's feet to the fire over that Pledge? You can either vote for Scotland - or you can vote for Cameron. Or Clegg. Or, God forbid, Miliband.
I can see the SNP getting an absolute majority of votes in Scotland next May, simply because they have a compelling case the other parties cannot match unless you are a dyed in the wool Unionist.
That must appeal....!
You seem to have overlooked Newark on 05th June. Three opinion polls were conducted in the run up to the vote, including your beloved Ashcroft, and all three correctly suggested the Conservatives would win.
2–3 Jun Survation 678 42% 22% 4% 27% 5% 15% over UKIP
27 May–1 Jun Lord Ashcroft 1,000 42% 20% 6% 27% 5% 15% over UKIP
27–28 May Survation/The Sun 606 36% 27% 5% 28% 5% 8% over UKIP
The Conservatives won http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newark_by-election,_2014#Polling
Secondly, there have been 21 by-elections this parliament and discounting the two UKIP defections (which were always opinion-polled to go UKIP) only 2 of the 19 have been Conservative seats. One of those was Newark. You have also selected two polls from Eastleigh, neatly conjuring away the 3 others that correctly stated the LibDems would win.
Sorry to demolish your response my old friend.
Returning to my point, 9 out of 10 polls this parliament have overstated the Labour share against actual votes. Punters may wish to take note.
How's that sovereign investment fund looking ?
Imagine the negotiations now if Yes had won. Whatever happens to the oil price now a monetary union is clearly a non-starter. It would be impossible for either side.
Scotland's second peak oil was based on oil price, not on volume. The price has fallen and we are already seeing exploration investment being cut back since the marginal projects probably don't make money at these levels. So roll it forward and the volume keeps dropping and the price is depressed and the SNP has to go back to the drawing board on economics.
The finance sector can't deliver growth, oil's in the doldrums so only whisky to go.
#arc of austerity
In using polls as an predictor of the eventual outcome, the historic accuracy of the pollster should be taken into account where there is a clearly observable pattern of inaccuracy.
It's bollocks
There are many people who think of themselves as Scottish first who would rather see Holyrood abolished. They won't be voting SNP
Meanwhile, the New Statesman:
However, the idea that a new Scottish Labour leader might be a panacea for the party, as some suggest, is nonsense. Labour’s Scottish problem is deep and structural. Many on the left have given up on the party altogether. Radical pro-independence groupings are flourishing. And Alex Salmond, the former SNP leader, is intent on returning to Westminster. For too long complacent, Labour now understands the strength of the opposition to it in Scotland. If it cannot win here, its chances of ever governing again as a majority party in Westminster are bleak indeed.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/12/leader-labour-s-scotland-problem
Oh the halcyon days when Falkirk could be, and frequently was, dismissed as a triviality signifying nothing.....
The referendum was a seismic event and they came so close to getting independence that the 45% are not going to give up and suddenly trudge back to the 'Red Tories'.
Let's remind ourselves; Miliband is held in lower regard than the Tory PM. That's how bad it is for Labour
Tories and Labour are fighting for most seats now, and then the right to try and build a coalition or do a deal that would enable them to govern.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/dec/12/brand-farage-pound-shop-enoch-entertaining-stupid
WOBBLING Ed Miliband has given in party fury to agree to limited blocks on Scots MPs from deciding on English only laws.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6178761/Ed-gives-in-to-MPs-on-English-only-laws.html
What chance of Mili Snr making a comeback...where..and it would be bad timing given his connection to the Gitmo Torture report..It might cause Labour more problems than any other party
"The amateurs are exposed; they sit in the Northern Ireland Executive. A bunch of inept chancers caught out long before the chancellor's cuts."
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-30449346
It avoids us having to think.
Brand fits this role well for certain people, generally on the left of politics.
Again it will backfire. Enoch Powell was not a one dimensional character, he was one of the greatest political thinkers of the last century but was a lefties bogeyman. Has it not occured to them that this will do Fargle no harm at all and, again, increase his vote.
Powell could have become a lord but refused a life peerage, he would only accept a hereditary peerage as he could see that life peers were the path to corruption and evisceration of the second chamber, to the benefit of the government and the disbenefit of the people.
And of course it was the traitor Heath that sacked him from the shadow cabinet.
Mr. Jessop, your friend is quite mad, and has appalling taste.
Is she single?
It does indeed look as though will be as interesting in 2015 as it was dull in 2010 at the GE. Assuming Jim Murphy wins today, it may work more in favour of the SNP than SLAB. Many of the Scots SLAB needs to attract back see Jim Murphy as almost a Tory, sitting as he does in what was the safest Tory seat, one of the richest areas in Scotland.
Scottish politics is becoming totally polarised, currently dominated by 2 women. If you are a Unionist, you were impressed by plain speaking Ruth Davidson the Tory leader. If you are a Nationalist you have seen Nicola Sturgeon as the strategist behind Salmond's persona for some years. The risk to SLAB is that Unionist voters in Scotland are drawn more to the real unionist party, the Scottish Tory Party. The LibDems appear to have all but evaporated.
Jim Murphy is a clever, erudite politician but with 5 months to a GE, if elected today he will be a leader without a seat in the body he has been elected to lead in and many of his constituents would be angry if he seeks re-election in May knowing he will stand down a year later to go to Holyrood.
The spectre that the egotistical loser of the Indyref vote might end up power-broking a SNP driven Westminster coalition with Ed Miliband's Labour will be enough to send many wanderers scuttling back to the Conservatives.
There are lesser evils and evils. And then there's Alex Salmond.
Well, her taste in men has been rather dodgy in the past. Ahem.
And she is single (and rather attractive). Do you want a blind date? ;-)
http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/17722/9602933/bernie-ecclestone-explains-south-koreas-inclusion
Listening to Brand is like having to sit through the losing speech in a school debate.
p.s. but he has a big and well-used willy so perhaps that's why she believes in him?
Besides, not a fan of blind dates. And you haven't mentioned her views on Hannibal and Caesar yet.
An honourable acceptance. New bets for next year: Hope you will accept one!
My daughter said he was a perfect gentleman, me I think he is a twat.
Just to cement matters: she is the most pro-EU person I know, and wants to move to France, partly because they have the right ideas. She's called anyone who wants out of the EU 'little Englanders' (including myself for being on the fence). She's an Anti-BOO'er. If she and (say) Richard Tyndall were to meet, there would be an explosion of pure political energy that would devastate half of Nottinghamshire.
Yet, as I say above, she is highly intelligent and very articulate. In fact, she has a far deeper knowledge of politics than myself, and can express that knowledge well. Much of what she says make sense, even if I disagree with it. I've learnt a great deal from talking to her. She would make a brilliant Labour politician of the old-Labour school.
I pointed out to him a very unusual allignment of planets on Hawaii. He was very grateful. If a little baffled. "Planets? Planets? I've never seen a planet before...."
Clearly only interested in the stars.
That's all.
The SNP is three groupings - a small hard-core socialist grouping, a large main stream left of centre social democratic grouping and a populist, pro-business centre right grouping.
The only thing unifying them is Independence.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-2858838/Brand-legal-threat-rent-row.html
IIRC it was Murphy who was denounced as a stupid traitorous moron - among other things.....
'Traitor! Scum! Paedophile!' The sinister abuse received by Labour MP Jim Murphy on the 'No' campaign trail
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2763715/Traitor-Scum-Paedophile-The-sinister-abuse-received-Labour-MP-Jim-Murphy-No-campaign-trail.html
Mr. Socrates, I missed that comment by Mr. Palmer. Good work correcting this Labour bullshit that Scottish and Welsh people want more politicians but the English don't (also, if all parts of the UK had devolved parliaments the Westminster Parliament would become much diminished. it wouldn't just remain as is).
To quote Malcolm Muggeridge:
"One of the peculiar sins of the twentieth century which we've developed to a very high level is the sin of credulity. It has been said that when human beings stop believing in God they believe in nothing. The truth is much worse: they believe in anything"
In the political context it is that people have stopped believing in politics rather than God of course!
Our Mps have happily voted more Europe year after year, effectively giving up on the right to govern and making themselves less relevant. Chuck in the devolved Parliaments and one should ask why do we have 650 of them and not half that number ?
One a pure productivity basis we should have about 300.
I am one of many who will not let Farage define what Britishness means. George Galloway is as British as the Queen.
Anyway, what are these 'traditional mores' ?
'We can disagree about whether the EU has been a socialist or capitalist influence, but it is undeniable that it wields that influence without asking the people.'
Unless she's an Anglophobic Stalinist (which she may be?) it's difficult to equate true socialism with supporting the EU?
If all true British patriots support the kippers, then 85% of us are having our nationality stolen.
Why are you telling me?
Anyway it's reading the Guardian and having muesli for breakfast. Anything else and you're a Little Englander. :-)
I'd still advocate backing him and Hamilton (1.9). Hard for me to see anyone else beating them. Downforce won't disappear, I think, Renault may close the gap on horsepower but the Mercedes engine's will also make progress, and Williams, whilst superfast in a straight line, have a hell of a lot of downforce to make up.
Not only that, it's hard to imagine two drivers who will be trying as hard right out of the blocks as Hamilton and Rosberg.
The EU is not so much imperfect as abhorrent and unworkable. As we watch the eurozone slowly sink into the mire I expect those who are so very pro-EU will blame the British for 'not engaging' or some such lunacy.
On a more important note: Good odds on Leicester City today, can get 500/1 on us beating Manchester's other team 5:3. It is almost worth a quid...
Leicester are playing better, but still without a win since September, against a formidable Man City side.
On the plus side, it is a glorious day in the Midlands and our Goalkeeper has the best beard in the Premier League. So should be an entertaining day.
The general consensus seems to be that SLAB’s support level is down to 25% and that things surely can’t get much worse. Being a life-long labour supporter now supporting the SNP and living in Central Scotland, my sense is that things are about to get much worse for SLAB before they get better. I think the core 25% is going to be further reduced by the following factors:
- SNP continuing to monopolise the centre left.
– Nicola Sturgeon will attract the proportion of the female vote, which has been turned off the SNP by a dislike of Alex Salmond.
– UKIP and the Greens will make further inroads, as in the rest of the UK.
–The SSP will also take some support away.
- A bit of the LibDem resurgence once they are free from the shackles of the coalition.
– SLAB will struggle to get their vote out.
Taking account all the above, we could be looking at SLAB falling into the 15-20% area, which would be extinction point. The anointing of Jim Murphy as the potential saviour of SLAB, shows just how out of touch with Scottish politics the Labour party, political commentators and mainstream media have become.
In terms of tactical voting, I could envisage Conservatives voting SNP to add to SLAB’s woes and Greens voting SNP. I don’t envisage there being a “Unionist” alliance to try and combat the SNP, as the mainstream parties are all going to be at each other’s throats nationally, so any alliance would have no credibility.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-30438225
Please, please, may we have reached peak Zoella ...
*Cough* double standards *cough*.
Wotcha, Mr. D, may we you take it that you are off on the razzle today and will be breaking your advent fast?
For the ignorant amongst you who may be wondering why Morris Dancer should be on the pop today, it is of course the feast of St Lucy of Syracuse, patron saint of writers (and the blind, salesmen, epidemics and sore throats apparently).