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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the whole political scene is changing – CON+LAB heading

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  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,646

    Forget that story, the most shocking story about UKIP candidates this week was that they thought putting Neil Hamilton as a candidate next year was a good idea.

    Why sensible Kippers like Richard Tyndall and Sean Fear could spot that was a disaster waiting to happen, and UKIP high command couldn't is worrying if you're a purple.

    As someone said last night, next week they'll be putting up Jeffrey Archer and Jonathan Aitken as candidates.
    I suppose the view is that Hamilton has served his time in the wilderness, and is entitled to be rehabilitated. Parties can be very loyal to long-term activists.

    I still think he definitely shouldn't be a candidate.

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Tapper said:

    Forget political parties altogether. The age of the independent is upon us. Local people known in the constituency will get elected, no more implants from London who care nothing apart from their rise up the greasy pole, their weird sex lives and their chance to become high level criminals beyond the reach of the law.

    Local Lizards for local people.
  • Peter Oborne and Steve Hawkes are superbly trolling Danny Blanchflower on twitter.
    Check it out.

    Thanks - Blanchflower getting nailed. Will he go for the libel courts?

    @D_Blanchflower @OborneTweets
    0 replies . 3 retweets 4 favourites
    Danny Blanchflower ‏@D_Blanchflower
    @steve_hawkes i never once ever said unemployment will hit 4 million repeat that libel again and take the consequences

    steve hawkes ‏@steve_hawkes 16m16 minutes ago
    Sorry, you're right, you said five million http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/6224723/Tory-public-spending-cuts-could-push-unemployment-to-5-million.html
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,840

    Local Lizards for local people.
    T’would be a lot easier with PR!
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr Eagles,

    Mr Jonathan Aitken (Conservative Party) is likely to be on the voting slip in May.

    And as regards, Archer J, was he a fantasist before the Conservatives clutched him to their bosom, or did joining the Conservative party turn him into one?

    Seems that Reckless and Carswell were relatively normal by comparison. Although Neil Hamilton would have blown away that supposition.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Sean_F said:

    I suppose the view is that Hamilton has served his time in the wilderness, and is entitled to be rehabilitated. Parties can be very loyal to long-term activists.

    I still think he definitely shouldn't be a candidate.

    Also I guess people with any nouse rather than being sycophantic trolls might notice that he has never been selected as a candidate, and yesterday was effectively stopped from running in the hustings
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound 1m1 minute ago
    "There's only one 35% strategy in British politics today," says Miliband. Tory plan to cut state to that.


    Seems Ed is more realistic about his election chances ...
  • Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound · 58s59 seconds ago
    "There's only one 35% strategy in British politics today," says Miliband. Tory plan to cut state to that. Good line.

    Tim Shipman is wrong. Only wonks would understand the reference to a 35% strategy. The general public would be baffled. It's a line for the Westminster bubble.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Mr. Royale, if the Lib Dems demand to bugger up the Lords and inflict without a vote a new, stupid, voting system on the electorate in return for merely asking the question (which, I believe was in the 2005 or 2010 Lib Dem manifesto, I forget which) about the UK's membership of the EU the Conservatives should tell Clegg to piss off.

    The constitutional settlement has been cocked up enough by Labour's half-baked, narrow-minded, short-sighted idiocy without letting the Lib Dems have one-off 15 year terms, or some such delinquent foolishness.

    Correct. The Lords need reform but not the LD version. Tories were daft to veto it last time when what was more important to them was boundary reform.
    The Lords should be abolished. As should 'Life Peers'.
  • isam said:

    Also I guess people with any nouse rather than being sycophantic trolls might notice that he has never been selected as a candidate, and yesterday was effectively stopped from running in the hustings

    Nonetheless he is a Deputy Chairman of UKIP, and one of 11 'key people' in the party (or was when I last looked yesterday - admittedly the half-life of senior UKIP figures is quite short).
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: Labour is going to borrow more. It just won't be called borrowing. It will be called "productive investment". That'll fly.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2014

    Nonetheless he is a Deputy Chairman of UKIP, and one of 11 'key people' in the party (or was when I last looked yesterday - admittedly the half-life of senior UKIP figures is quite short).
    Yes but the truth is that Ukip are woefully short of people with any real political experience... Any new party would be... If you can make use of someone who has something to offer while keeping him away from the MP list I think they have to.

    But the fact is he isn't a candidate, and wasn't even allowed to run to be one
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Tapper said:

    Forget political parties altogether. The age of the independent is upon us. Local people known in the constituency will get elected, no more implants from London who care nothing apart from their rise up the greasy pole, their weird sex lives and their chance to become high level criminals beyond the reach of the law.

    Independents are polling ahead of all political parties in the Republic of Ireland.

  • Mr. Antifrank, I concur. Much as the Hannibal-Caesar silliness is largely confined to this site alone, the '35% strategy' is known only to political anoraks.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    I would be fascinated to know how you think the Tories would handle it now, if a young lady went to the papers and announced that she had been harassed by a cabinet minister, and he had documentation to suggest a sexual relationship existed between them. No doubt you think he would just sit there with a stiff upper lip while the Guardian and the Independent accuse him of misconduct and scream for his resignation.
    Well, maybe having another woman presenting UKIP's position might help. Oh, but UKIP don't exactly have women queuing up to represent them.

    If you can't see how having a top tier of boozy white late-middle-aged lascivious men, largely at the fag ends of their careers, frequenting massage parlours, having mistresses, happy to trash the reputations of women they have slept with, might not be overly appealing to female voters, then you are beyond help.


    " happy to trash the reputations of women they have slept with" oh come on Mark!

    He is defending his reputation from a serious allegation.

    WTF do you expect him to do, just lie back and let her trash HIS reputation?

    I think in this case your hatred of UKIP is dictating your response rather than the actuality of the situation.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    isam said:

    Yes but the truth is that Ukip are woefully short of people with any real political experience... Any new party would be... If you can make use of someone who has something to offer while keeping him away from the MP list I think they have to.

    But the fact is he isn't a candidate, and wasn't even allowed to run to be one
    They shouldnt have touched him with a bargepole. He has nothing to offer them and a lot of baggage they didnt need.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton 55s55 seconds ago City of London, London
    Key line from Miliband: "Tackling the cost of living crisis is in fact essential for tackling the deficit."

    Don't show him the inflation figures..
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: "Can I borrow a tenner?". "No". "Can I productively invest a tenner?". "Oh, of course".
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,198
    edited December 2014
    Sean_F said:

    I suppose the view is that Hamilton has served his time in the wilderness, and is entitled to be rehabilitated. Parties can be very loyal to long-term activists.

    I still think he definitely shouldn't be a candidate.

    With some professions, as per the rehab act, some convictions are never spent, and must be disclosed. The same principle should apply for Neil Hamilton.

    As his transgressions were directly to do with him being an MP, that's why he never should have been anywhere near a selection shortlist.
  • isam said:

    Yes but the truth is that Ukip are woefully short of people with any real political experience...

    Actually I don't think that is true any more, and for that matter Neil Hamilton is hardly a political whizz-kid.
  • Sporting has the Tories +1 today at 279-285 GE 2015 seats, that's just 4 seats (or one encouraging poll) behind an unchanged Labour on 283 - 289.
    For those looking for a credible "wisdom poll", this has to be it, where hard cash concentrates minds wonderfully.

    Returning to my theme of a few days ago in attempting to seek out value in those seats currently held by the Tories, but considered hopelssly lost to Labour in the forthcoming General Election, a simple summation of where things currently stand is as follows:
    Starting with the 307 seats won by the Tories in 2010, if one adds to this figure say around 12 seats which they are expected to gain from the LibDems and say 4 seats they may lose to UKIP, resulting in them winning a net 315 seats. If one compares this figure with their mid-spread value of 282 seats, the conclusion appears to be that on these assumptions they will lose around 33 seats to Labour (i.e. 315 - 282 seats).
    This tends to support my view that the value, if such exists, is likely to be in those circa 30 seats, being between the 30th - 60th considered to be the most vulnerable to Labour. I suspect that the odds and indeed the value available across this range of seats will vary very considerably.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Labour will swing the spending axe...

    @faisalislam: Miliband says manifesto will spell out "a very limited number of other areas which will have spending protected".

    ..apart from anything you don't want cut
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,983

    Rubbisher has created more unemployment amongst hacks and more court cases against hacks than any other Editor. A remarkable "record".
    I suppose you think Rusbridger's prime motive should have been maintaining solidarity amongst hacks in the true spirit of socialism and just ignored all the law breaking? But then The Guardian isn't really a left wing paper is it?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    antifrank said:

    I've got a small bet on UKIP at 100/1 in this constituency:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2863696/Goggleboxgate-Ukip-candidate-s-fury-ousted-key-seat-star-hit-C4-show.html

    Now if UKIP had managed to secure Gogglebox's Sandra...

    I was a bit confused by this one.

    Ralph Atkinson patently isnt a local candidate, he stood for Croydon South last time around, and hasnt updated his Blog since, as one might expect of say, the new candidate
    http://ralphukip.blogspot.com/

    Additionally if you look at the Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/ukiphastingsrye
    You can see:

    UKIP Hastings & Rye
    2 December
    Hastings & Rye UKIP Branch last night elected their PPC, Congratulations to Gogglebox's Andrew Michael

    So was he their PPC, or did he just think he should be, but didn't actually get it ?
  • CD13 said:

    Mr Eagles,

    Mr Jonathan Aitken (Conservative Party) is likely to be on the voting slip in May.

    And as regards, Archer J, was he a fantasist before the Conservatives clutched him to their bosom, or did joining the Conservative party turn him into one?

    Seems that Reckless and Carswell were relatively normal by comparison. Although Neil Hamilton would have blown away that supposition.

    He had some sort of charm, he was close to three Tory leaders in a row.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,840
    Neil said:

    They shouldnt have touched him with a bargepole. He has nothing to offer them and a lot of baggage they didnt need.

    Many years ago when I was an Officer in a local Liberal party, a well known local councillor, who had been in both Lab & Tory parties, and also sat as an Independent, started to make noises about joining us. The Chair and I agreed that we would do all we could to prevent him doing so!

    And we were seriously short of experienced candidates, let alone councillors.
  • I can almost see what EdM is trying to communicate. But it does come across as an A level lecture. I doubt that lecturing voters is the best choice.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Actually I don't think that is true any more, and for that matter Neil Hamilton is hardly a political whizz-kid.
    He does know what it takes for major parties to lose rock solid seats to insurgent candidates though. Maybe UKIP were looking to tap into that.

  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    One difference between now and 1974 is that we are due an election. In early 1974 we weren’t for another 18 months, and the Tories campaigned on the slogan “Who runs Britain”. To which the electorates answer was “Not you."
    The electorate made a mistake didn't they? For 5 years we had the trade unions running the country and the rise of Arthur Scargill.
    Should we be surprised at the speculations from the New Statesman?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I can almost see what EdM is trying to communicate. But it does come across as an A level lecture. I doubt that lecturing voters is the best choice.

    @DPJHodges: Ed Miliband is literally saying in the same speech "Cuts are bad. I'll cut". "Spending's bad. I'll spend".
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCAllegra: Miliband deficit elex pledge - Labour's manifesto will see no additional borrowing. But IFS say plans already see borrowing up £28.3 bn

    When even Allegra is sceptical...
  • I suppose you think Rusbridger's prime motive should have been maintaining solidarity amongst hacks in the true spirit of socialism and just ignored all the law breaking? But then The Guardian isn't really a left wing paper is it?
    His aim has been to drive out of business right wing newspapers through half truths etc.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited December 2014
    Sean_F said:

    The principal beneficiaries from PR in local elections would be UKIP and the Green Party. The losers would be the Conservatives and Labour.
    How about also the grossly overdue introduction of the Boundary Commission's recommendations on which the LibDems ratted on their agreement last time around.
    Dave got well and truly suckered on this issue ....... weak, weak, weak!
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Ed Miliband is literally saying in the same speech "Cuts are bad. I'll cut". "Spending's bad. I'll spend".
    Yes, we know that Dan Hodges doesnt like Ed Miliband. Thanks for the reminder.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    I suppose you think Rusbridger's prime motive should have been maintaining solidarity amongst hacks in the true spirit of socialism and just ignored all the law breaking? But then The Guardian isn't really a left wing paper is it?
    Of course, The Guardian has never broken the law to get a story has it?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,983

    I was chatting to someone a few weeks ago about this, he thinks if the Tories win the popular vote next year (and most seats), but short of a majority, Tory MPs might derail a second coalition, thinking a second election in 2015 might be the way to get an overall majority.

    There is a significant strand of Tory MPs who think Dave would have won a majority in a second election held in 2010.
    No-one is factoring in what the Lib Dems will do. I'm amazed that Cameron and co are so unconcerned by how they appear to Lib Dems given the difficulty they will have in winning a majority. Do they think they just need to keep Clegg and Alexander onside? If so that's a big mistake. Clegg would have to get another deal through is party. Many of the party aren't keen on going into government again after 2015 and the Tories' Ukip flirtation won't be endearing them to another blue-yellow deal. You then have to factor in that Clegg has to a) hold his seat and b) hold on as leader. Neither of those things can be assumed. If the Lib Dems lose 2/3 of their votes and half their seats he could be a dead man walking.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tombradby: This is apparently a 'big' speech (which is why we are here). So far, he has said nothing new.

    @tombradby: There was nothing new in that speech at all. No policy shift, no new detail.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @IanDunt: Miliband was coming across v.well until he hit section intended for evening news, then his eyes went blurry & the robot tone came in again.

    @IanDunt: Is it performance anxiety? Came across as knowledgeable, reasonable & decisive, then fluttered it away during the money shot.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,983

    Of course, The Guardian has never broken the law to get a story has it?
    Possibly. But what are you saying. There should be no journalistic ethics? Hacking into innocent people's phones on random fishing expeditions is okay? I'm sure The Graun is far from perfect but to criticise for its phone hacking coverage says a lot about you sir.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    BenM said:

    Eurozone debt crisis was marginal in the great 2010 to 2013 UK economic stagnation.

    The bigger impact by far was Osborne's self imposed unnecessary austerity.
    No - but we realise you have to try.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: Ed Miliband's speech doesn't survive the first question.

    @DPJHodges: Ed said "we won't make unfunded promises", then promised to bring current account into balance. When @tombradby asked how he couldn't say.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    @tombradby: This is apparently a 'big' speech (which is why we are here). So far, he has said nothing new.

    @tombradby: There was nothing new in that speech at all. No policy shift, no new detail.

    Bradby is a Tory stooge - evident in his mean question to Ed asking for a single specific pledge.
  • Of course, The Guardian has never broken the law to get a story has it?
    Anything the Guardian does is justified by their high moral standards and belief in a better society and indeed, world. It therefore cannot, by definition, be illegal.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Neil said:

    He does know what it takes for major parties to lose rock solid seats to insurgent candidates though. Maybe UKIP were looking to tap into that.
    Mostly it takes all the other parties withdrawing their candidates, I am not sure UKIP are going to be that lucky. If LAB and LD had stood against Hamilton, and you divided Bell's vote between them in the proportion of the previous election, Hamilton would have won.

  • F1: just some vague musing. Very unlikely McLaren will be able to tilt for the title in 2015. Engine may struggle to match Mercedes, but even if it did, the last two seasons have seen the car lose out aerodynamically to Red Bull and Mercedes. 2016 could be a different kettle of fish.

    In 2015, Red Bull have their final Newey-designed car. I don't expect the performance in 2016 to fall off a cliff, but losing Newey will cost them relative performance. Renault will improve the engine but Mercedes aren't just going to stand still, so the car will still lose out in a straight line. Ricciardo's a great driver but he'll struggle, I think, to break the Silver Arrows.

    Williams could be the closest threat to Mercedes, but I still think Hamilton and Rosberg will have a second private duel for the title.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Indigo said:

    Mostly it takes all the other parties withdrawing their candidates, I am not sure UKIP are going to be that lucky. If LAB and LD had stood against Hamilton, and you divided Bell's vote between them in the proportion of the previous election, Hamilton would have won.

    Hamilton would almost certainly have lost if he faced the same parties in 1997 that he faced in 1992. But his real gift to the Labour party was in the impact he had on the course of the election outside of Tatton.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Oh FFS

    @paulwaugh: EdM vows to keep Lab cuts plans secret b4 elxn? "The right way to make these decisions is, frankly, in government".
  • Possibly. But what are you saying. There should be no journalistic ethics? Hacking into innocent people's phones on random fishing expeditions is okay? I'm sure The Graun is far from perfect but to criticise for its phone hacking coverage says a lot about you sir.
    Actually the sunday guardoian was a big user of the main chap behind the hacking. Presumably all of that was quite legal and the weekday Guardian decided not to look into the Observer as they were left wing morally pure hacks....
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,983

    Anything the Guardian does is justified by their high moral standards and belief in a better society and indeed, world. It therefore cannot, by definition, be illegal.
    I really cannot understand the right wing bitterness towards The Guardian. I'm starting to wonder if you don't think a plurality of views is a good thing in the media, that we'd be better off just having a Tory press and no alternative? Maybe it's an inferiority complex? Are you rather embarrassed about your own moral standards?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    Oh FFS

    @paulwaugh: EdM vows to keep Lab cuts plans secret b4 elxn? "The right way to make these decisions is, frankly, in government".

    Blank piece of paper manifesto ?

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Scott_P said:

    Oh FFS

    @paulwaugh: EdM vows to keep Lab cuts plans secret b4 elxn? "The right way to make these decisions is, frankly, in government".

    So much like the Tories and the Lib Dems then. Thanks for your efforts and all but surely anyone who desperately wants to read tweets criticising Ed can find these on twitter themselves?

  • Scott_P said:

    Oh FFS

    @paulwaugh: EdM vows to keep Lab cuts plans secret b4 elxn? "The right way to make these decisions is, frankly, in government".

    That's the Conservative approach as well, but Ed Miliband is more indiscreet.
  • We have probably run out of time for another re-launch of EdM before Xmas so anyone know when the January re-launch will take place?
  • Scott_P said:

    Oh FFS

    @paulwaugh: EdM vows to keep Lab cuts plans secret b4 elxn? "The right way to make these decisions is, frankly, in government".

    Ah, his election platform is a policy of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: Ed Balls coming unstuck on #r4today by attacking state shrink to 35% of GDP but refusing to say what it should be. Same as Danny Alexander.

    @IanDunt: Balls sounded terrible in that interview. Stroppy, unclear, point-scoring. And nothing of any substance behind it.

    What can Labour say?

    Absolutely nothing, they have completely lost the economic argument again.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    We have probably run out of time for another re-launch of EdM before Xmas so anyone know when the January re-launch will take place?

    That depends on how many turkey plots are uncovered
  • Neil said:

    So much like the Tories and the Lib Dems then. Thanks for your efforts and all but surely anyone who desperately wants to read tweets criticising Ed can find these on twitter themselves?

    Indeed, the problem is finding ones praising him
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Neil said:

    So much like the Tories and the Lib Dems then. Thanks for your efforts and all but surely anyone who desperately wants to read tweets criticising Ed can find these on twitter themselves?

    @Torytweetmachine; That's gratitude for you
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Floater said:

    What can Labour say?

    Absolutely nothing, they have completely lost the economic argument again.
    No, they havent.

    I think you'll find that their approach of fewer cuts than the Tories or Lib Dems over the course of the next Parliament would poll best of all the main parties' offerings.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GeorgeWParker: Ed m refuses to say what scale of cuts he has in mind: waiting to see the books

    We will balance the books!

    How?

    Um...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,840

    I really cannot understand the right wing bitterness towards The Guardian. I'm starting to wonder if you don't think a plurality of views is a good thing in the media, that we'd be better off just having a Tory press and no alternative? Maybe it's an inferiority complex? Are you rather embarrassed about your own moral standards?
    Actually, that’s nail hit on head time. Witness the howls of rage from the right whenever the BBC has the temerity to report something which is to the Conservatives disadvantage.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Indeed, the problem is finding ones praising him
    I'll find a tweet praising Ed when you find the Tories' specific plans for cuts over the next Parliament.

  • This is an odd feeling. I agree entirely with Julian Huppert:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30420193
  • Neil said:

    Yes, we know that Dan Hodges doesnt like Ed Miliband. Thanks for the reminder.
    I didn't like tim but he had an irritatingly good ability to put his finger on key political issues and distil them into an excellent campaign / spin message for Labour (or against the Tories).

    Miliband's problem isn't Hodges, it's his incoherent message.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Scott_P
    He could do what Cameron did last election and promise all sorts of goodies, then tell people that on seeing the books, they couldn't have them?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,235

    I really cannot understand the right wing bitterness towards The Guardian. I'm starting to wonder if you don't think a plurality of views is a good thing in the media, that we'd be better off just having a Tory press and no alternative? Maybe it's an inferiority complex? Are you rather embarrassed about your own moral standards?
    Not bitterness.

    More contempt for people with so little self-respect that they are willing to publish a significsnt quantity of incoherent gibberish from people without even a working knowledge of their own subjects.

    And that's without starting on the hypocrisy.


  • King Cole, disapproval of the BBC's reporting of the yacht nonsense or the recent "back to the 1930s" propaganda is entirely legitimate. I can't recall many here complaining when the BBC rightly pointed out Cameron's damned fool immigration promise was not merely missed, but missed by a mile.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    No-one is factoring in what the Lib Dems will do. I'm amazed that Cameron and co are so unconcerned by how they appear to Lib Dems given the difficulty they will have in winning a majority. Do they think they just need to keep Clegg and Alexander onside? If so that's a big mistake. Clegg would have to get another deal through is party. Many of the party aren't keen on going into government again after 2015 and the Tories' Ukip flirtation won't be endearing them to another blue-yellow deal. You then have to factor in that Clegg has to a) hold his seat and b) hold on as leader. Neither of those things can be assumed. If the Lib Dems lose 2/3 of their votes and half their seats he could be a dead man walking.
    How exactly are the Tories flirting with UKIP? On EU immigration, they watered it down to no actual restrictions but just benefit changes. On non-EU immigration, they haven't added in any extra barriers. On the EAW, they handed powers back to Brussels without a referendum. They haven't changed any policies at all on international development or gay marriage. Where's the flirtation? I don't see it.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited December 2014
    Can't help feeling that England should have wrapped this up by now. A wicket will really put some pressure on. Assume Root will cut loose after his century, although he's pushing it close to the line...

    EDIT: Oh dear, Ravi. Oh dear.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited December 2014
    @MattW
    What media do you suggest we use for a totally unbiased and moral perspective then Matt?
  • I'll say again: The Labour manifesto is going to be a bundle of laughs - but not nearly as funny as watching Ed on the telly for a month trying to explain it.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    isam said:

    Also I guess people with any nouse rather than being sycophantic trolls might notice that he has never been selected as a candidate, and yesterday was effectively stopped from running in the hustings
    Kippers need to make their minds up - he has either 'never been found guilty of anything' 'deserves a second chance' or 'we never wanted him'. UKIP seem on total confusion over Hamilton.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    With some professions, as per the rehab act, some convictions are never spent, and must be disclosed. The same principle should apply for Neil Hamilton.

    As his transgressions were directly to do with him being an MP, that's why he never should have been anywhere near a selection shortlist.
    Has he actually been convicted on anything in a court of law ?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Ah, his election platform is a policy of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is.
    Paraphrasing a South Sea Bubble era prospectus on a blog is, like quoting G & S, a sure sign of an under-worked mind.
  • Neil said:

    I'll find a tweet praising Ed when you find the Tories' specific plans for cuts over the next Parliament.

    Plenty of detail here:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/382327/44695_Accessible.pdf

    No-one is expecting either Ed to write the 2018 Budget, but, given that Labour spend their entire time criticising Osborne's plans, and opposing nearly every concrete measure taken to save money, it's not unreasonable to ask what Labour would do differently.

    The answer may well be 'Not much, Osborne was right all along, and we apologise for ever saying anything different'.

    Or it might be 'We would slash the NHS budget and spend more on welfare'. Or vice versa.

    Who knows? Do Labour know?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    You're tying yourself in absurd knots, arguing simultaneously that the 'Europhiles' (whoever they are) are terrified of an EU referendum, and that it can't be won by the Out side because Cameron will fix it. One moment you post links saying how much support there is for leaving, or how distrusted Cameron is, or how useless he is at politics, or how the renegotiation can't achieve anything, and the next moment you're saying that if he recommends staying in on the basis of a flaky renegotiation, there's nothing the BOOers and the peoples' army can do to dissuade the public from following his advice.

    I'm striving hard to be polite to Kippers, so I'll refrain from saying this is fruitcake-loon bonkers, but it is, shall we say, intellectually inconsistent.
    It's easy to argue with strawmen, isn't it? I have said several times in the last couple of weeks that we can win one on the basis of a flaky renegotiation, as soon as the results of the renegotiation are in. But Cameron, if he even bothers to have a referendum, will likely do it on the basis of a renegotiation yet to come. And I've never said a rigged referendum can't be won by the out side. Just that it's a lot more likely to be won if it's not rigged.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,983
    Socrates said:

    How exactly are the Tories flirting with UKIP? On EU immigration, they watered it down to no actual restrictions but just benefit changes. On non-EU immigration, they haven't added in any extra barriers. On the EAW, they handed powers back to Brussels without a referendum. They haven't changed any policies at all on international development or gay marriage. Where's the flirtation? I don't see it.
    On actual policy you are probably right. However a lot of Lib Dems will have on their mind the Tory conference where the 'talk' was pretty Ukip friendly. Whether or not it's about Ukip, it's clear 'modernisation' is dead within the Tory party. That will make a blue-yellow deal more difficult. I think the Tories assume the Lib Dems will do anything for a seat (or two) around the cabinet table. But Clegg and Alexander don't represent the Lib Dems en masse and at least one of them is unlikely to be around post-May.
  • Bobajob_Bobajob_ Posts: 195
    It's like the Tory press office in here again I see.
    Rapid rebuttal unit out in force, ScottP retweeting his little socks off.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Rubbisher has created more unemployment amongst hacks and more court cases against hacks than any other Editor. A remarkable "record".
    You seem to have mis-spelled criminals.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2014
    Socrates said:

    How exactly are the Tories flirting with UKIP? On EU immigration, they watered it down to no actual restrictions but just benefit changes. On non-EU immigration, they haven't added in any extra barriers. On the EAW, they handed powers back to Brussels without a referendum. They haven't changed any policies at all on international development or gay marriage. Where's the flirtation? I don't see it.
    Allowing in as many poor Europeans as possible then treating them like 2nd class citizens/slaves doesn't appeal to me... Managed immigration should try to encourage a more cohesive society not one that is more divided

    Cameron doesn't understand why people vote UKIP and makes decisions based on his misunderstanding of why they do
  • Socrates said:

    It's easy to argue with strawmen, isn't it? I have said several times in the last couple of weeks that we can win one on the basis of a flaky renegotiation, as soon as the results of the renegotiation are in. But Cameron, if he even bothers to have a referendum, will likely do it on the basis of a renegotiation yet to come. And I've never said a rigged referendum can't be won by the out side. Just that it's a lot more likely to be won if it's not rigged.

    And, as was immediately pointed out, the Out side would also be arguing on the basis of a negotiation yet to come (indeed yet to be started). Why does uncertainty on one side make the referendum 'rigged', but uncertainty on the other side doesn't?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Bobajob_ said:

    retweeting

    Still haven't worked out what retweet means Bob?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Cricket: FFS. Come on Jos.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    This is an odd feeling. I agree entirely with Julian Huppert:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30420193

    He appears to be a liberal Liberal, not so many of those around these days.
  • Indigo said:

    Has he actually been convicted on anything in a court of law ?
    No, he did lose a libel action IIRC but he was found guilty by a Commons inquiry of accepting cash for questions.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,797

    This is an odd feeling. I agree entirely with Julian Huppert:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30420193

    Presumably pro porn goes down well with students...
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295
    Socrates said:

    It's easy to argue with strawmen, isn't it? I have said several times in the last couple of weeks that we can win one on the basis of a flaky renegotiation, as soon as the results of the renegotiation are in. But Cameron, if he even bothers to have a referendum, will likely do it on the basis of a renegotiation yet to come. And I've never said a rigged referendum can't be won by the out side. Just that it's a lot more likely to be won if it's not rigged.
    How you can you possibly 'rig' a referendum when the question is simply whether to stay in or leave the EU?

    Well I suppose if all this nonsense pushes you back into kipper-camp then it will have been some use: I was dreading that you might be floating back to the blues based on your vituperative indignation about votes for 16 year olds.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,029
    Afternoon all :)

    Some fairly predictable tweets (and equally predictable re-tweets from the usual suspects) during and after Ed Milliband's speech. I don't recall George Osborne being too precise on the content of his June 2010 Emergency Budget in December 2009 yet everyone expects Ed Balls to have the 2016 Budget ready for consideration now.

    It's also entirely reasonable for an incoming Government to want to look at the books or amusing letters from the outgoing Chief Secretary before making firm decisions. Given Osborne's propensity for smoke and mirrors, I suspect the public finances are much worse than he is letting on.

    That said, and without reading the detailed speech, I still don't get the sense Labour are prepared to consider the inconsiderable and look at the NHS or Education Budgets for cuts. On the other hand, the Osbornian "slash and burn" approach isn't without its flaws either.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,983
    Paddy Power now have the Lib Dems in at 3/10 to retain Hallam from the previous 1/6, where it was at for months. Labour remain 7/2.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    stodge said:

    On the other hand, the Osbornian "slash and burn" approach isn't without its flaws either.

    What slash and burn approach?

    The current government has over the last five years reduced government spending by ~2%.

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited December 2014
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Some fairly predictable tweets (and equally predictable re-tweets from the usual suspects) during and after Ed Milliband's speech. I don't recall George Osborne being too precise on the content of his June 2010 Emergency Budget in December 2009 yet everyone expects Ed Balls to have the 2016 Budget ready for consideration now.

    The economic situation, tax take, and near-term growth are much better understood, and much more stable, than in 2009. Viewing them as comparable is a little shakey, IMHO.
  • Ed Miliband's economic approach is the correct one for Labour to adopt. His challenge is that Labour has been spending four years giving exactly the opposite smoke signals by opposing numerous specific cuts. How is he going to persuade the public that he means what he now says?
  • Mr. Anorak, and the OBR will offer more objective forecasts than Brown/Darling's fantastical borrowing prophecies.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    No, he did lose a libel action IIRC but he was found guilty by a Commons inquiry of accepting cash for questions.
    One should be careful about starting libel actions against people with effectively bottomless wallets. To be fair to Hamilton (not something I do that often) , from his Wikipedia:

    "On 14 October 1997, Hamilton made an appeal to a new committee. On 6 November, the committee only partially endorsed Downey's report, but still criticised Hamilton's behaviour whilst an MP."
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Plenty of detail here:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/382327/44695_Accessible.pdf

    No-one is expecting either Ed to write the 2018 Budget, but, given that Labour spend their entire time criticising Osborne's plans, and opposing nearly every concrete measure taken to save money, it's not unreasonable to ask what Labour would do differently.

    The answer may well be 'Not much, Osborne was right all along, and we apologise for ever saying anything different'.

    Or it might be 'We would slash the NHS budget and spend more on welfare'. Or vice versa.

    Who knows? Do Labour know?
    I'm sorry, Richard. There arent the specifics I was asking about. We know what the broad borrowing plans for each of the main parties are. We know some specifics within that. But none of the parties have set out clearly what will be cut and by how much over the course of the next Parliament. You are criticising Miliband for being in the same position as Cameron.

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    rcs1000 said:

    Presumably pro porn goes down well with students...
    I think the real point is it doesn't make any damn difference to porn, except it pushes a few producers offshore and forces them to give their tax to another jurisdiction, otherwise the world proceeds as before. There is only one thing worse than illiberal laws, its pointless ineffectual illiberal laws!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ONS: UK standard of living rises to joint fourth highest in the EU http://t.co/xBBmkbxlNJ

    How's your cost of living crisis going Ed?
  • Meanwhile, the government continues slowly undoing the damage of the Labour years, in this case in education of the poorest pupils:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-30413263

    'Slash and burn' in action.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited December 2014

    What slash and burn approach?

    The current government has over the last five years reduced government spending by ~2%.

    Indeed, Osborne cuts half in five years of what Healey cut in one year. Over the next five years if he ramps up his cuts as announced he will cut roughly the same as Healey cut in one year.
  • Indigo said:

    One should be careful about starting libel actions against people with effectively bottomless wallets. To be fair to Hamilton (not something I do that often) , from his Wikipedia:

    "On 14 October 1997, Hamilton made an appeal to a new committee. On 6 November, the committee only partially endorsed Downey's report, but still criticised Hamilton's behaviour whilst an MP."
    Neil Hamilton did bring a successful libel action in the past, back in the 80s when the Bolshevik Broadcasting Corporation libelled him as a far right extremist.

    I think the committee did endorse the finding that Hamilton accepted cash in exchanges for asking questions.
This discussion has been closed.