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The overriding theme of this week’s British Election Study conference was that things are changing quite dramatically and we really don’t know where this will end.
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I think by the time of the election we are going to be sick of "back to the 1930's" more than bloody AV. How about back to 1998 instead?
Do think Osborne has made a mistake here. If he had just fiddled his figures at tiny bit differently, he could have claimed back to 1998. While some people will claim that was a time when some public services did need investment, not sure most people on the street would say it was the total end to the world as we know it, as will be be painted over and over again.
If it was "back to 98" was the attack, I imagine the Tories would point to a) ring fenced NHS and education and b) lots of "investment" since 1998 in public service infrastructure.
This will end in the Laakso-Taagepera Index of the number of parties, and the relative disproportionality of seats compared with votes, both increasing to the point at which FPTP will become untenable. The system will be shattered as surely as if it's the roots of a tree growing underneath a building and crumbling the mortar to split the bricks apart.
Ed Miliband Will Never be Prime Minister
Theres so many "vulnerable" groups and "so unfair" things like the so called "bedroom tax" they feel compassion for that they won't be able to stop themselves bankrupting the country.
Meanwhile ordinary working people think that if anything the cuts don't go nearly far enough. as DPJHodges puts it "Yes, but it's the idea that people think they'll be personally better off with the cuts that will be terrifying Ed."
Having said all that, there appears to be a certain amount of fantasy about. Isn’t this similar to a famous author who claimed to have studied at Oxford ......only it wasn’t at what one understands to be the University?
The way the kippers have tried to dismantle her credibilty has not exactly been edifying. I can see why women have a problem with UKIP.
However we see things every so often, don’t we. Someone or some issue flashes through the political or news sky (or Sky) like a comet and then vanishes from view. Five minutes of fame.
Oh come off it, the Tories would have done exactly the same thing, and historically have, just look at Sara Keays. Its either that or leave your man hanging in the wind while the Guardian tips the slop bucket over him, and there is no "tried" about it, she lied, repeatedly, in stupid ways and expected her target to just sit there and take it.
In England and Wales the substantial increase in the UKIP vote has been largely off set by the collapse of the Lib Dem vote although they frequently don't poll well between elections. The added factor is the growth of the Greens which is making the other "others" unusually high.
In Scotland the massive increase in SNP support means it is possible that Tory plus Labour will struggle to reach 50%. It certainly doesn't at the moment. But whether this will produce a disproportionate result remains to be seen. A wave of SNP victories might in fact show FPTP working.
I think the collapse in Scotland where Labour are now at risk of a lot of good seconds but far fewer seats will do a lot to diminish the sort of advantages that Labour has enjoyed in recent elections. Those such as BJO who use UNS to project EICIPM on current polling are going to be in for a shock.
The 2020GE could potentially be even more 'interesting', particularly if the Tories collapse in 2017-2018 over the EU, and Labour continue to shed support on their fringes and in their heartlands. If the 2015-2020 parliament is a real circus, and a disaster in terms of performance, I can see a frustrated electorate demanding a change.
That might be amplified if UKIP poll well next year, but score very poorly in seats, and are then sidelined for 5 years with mass immigration continuing, and the EU "renegotiation" becoming a farce.
I am beginning to feel a certain sympathy for this young woman. She seems to be quite a fantasist, whose stories fall apart under the mildest scrutiny. I hope that she finds some support before she has a proper breakdown. She is now exposed across the press (largely by her own doing) and must be feeling rather fragile.
I am surprised that UKIP thought her an appropriate priority candidate for high office.
So Ukip are awful because either 1. what she says about them is true, or 2. what she says about them is not true, and they have been caddish enough to point out that it is not true.
To be fair, from seeing interviews with her and reading the transcript and timeline of her texts, she does seem a little unbalanced.
UKIP, the new politics. Yeah, right.... "We're doing politics like eighties Tories did politics"
* (unsuccessfully)
I would be fascinated to know how you think the Tories would handle it now, if a young lady went to the papers and announced that she had been harassed by a cabinet minister, and he had documentation to suggest a sexual relationship existed between them. No doubt you think he would just sit there with a stiff upper lip while the Guardian and the Independent accuse him of misconduct and scream for his resignation.
MM lives in a John Buchan novel, and would never be caddish enough to call a member of the weaker sex a liar, demme, sir!
Women, eh?
On Labour and Scotland - maybe a collapse there will push a few dinosaurs into supporting PR in one form or another.
On this UKIP lady - if something looks too good to be true, it probably is. She reminds me a bit of that teacher who so charmed the Tory conference, but who turned out to be a bit of a liability. Labour has similar issues from time to time with business folk.
Well, maybe having another woman presenting UKIP's position might help. Oh, but UKIP don't exactly have women queuing up to represent them.
If you can't see how having a top tier of boozy white late-middle-aged lascivious men, largely at the fag ends of their careers, frequenting massage parlours, having mistresses, happy to trash the reputations of women they have slept with, might not be overly appealing to female voters, then you are beyond help.
@IanDunt: Balls sounded terrible in that interview. Stroppy, unclear, point-scoring. And nothing of any substance behind it.
If you can't see how having a top tier of boozy white late-middle-aged lascivious men, largely at the fag ends of their careers, frequenting massage parlours, having mistresses, happy to trash the reputations of women they have slept with, might not be overly appealing to female voters, then you are beyond help.
I’m not about to be an apologist for the kippers but could those descriptions not be applied to people in the higher echelons of some if not all the other parties?
It’s how you deal with such people when they surface that counts. Among the failures of the LibDems under Clegg’s “leadership”!
I am surprised that UKIP thought her an appropriate priority candidate for high office.
Agreed, but she is in her 30s and not a teenager. Since Tom Mangold from the BBC knows her, people such as him should be providing support as he was so ready to undertake a "soft" PR interview.
She makes Iago seem naive
Richard_Nabavi said:
I've greatly enjoyed @bigjohnowls comically hypocritical contortions regarding Hinchingbrooke. Bravo! Quite apart from the hilarity of his denying the straightforward facts of the case, the most delightful bit of his 'logic' (if that's not too strong a word) was this post:
Burnham would not have appointed Circle in 2011 if he had been SOS IMO (and his!!!)
So, to get this straight: the argument is that the tendering process was a sham, and that it was always going to be fixed for ideological reasons in favour of an NHS provider (not that there was one by the time that Burnham left office, but obviously mere facts can't be allowed to interfere with Labour prejudice).
Brilliant! More please!
The problem of course had Burnham stopped the process the legal bills could have been horrific. It takes a lot of work , effort and time to complete these types of bids. Once Burnham had removed the NHS bidders at an early stage and ensured that only privatised bids remained the dye was cast. I suspect this was meant to be just another Labour trick to allow them to do what the specific medical expert on this site of blaming the Toties / coalition for a situation Labour created and gave no escape from.
Read the same for 50p tax rate in the last days of the BRown government. Nothing to do with what is good for the country just how can we screw up the next lot and provide a bat to beat them with.
From day one as Labour leader Ed Miliband was a total dud. Just as the British electorate would not place Foot, Kinnock, Hague, IDS and Howard as PM so it with be the case with this latest electoral dead man walking.
The dismantling has mainly been through media investigations such as Michael Crick who raised the question on her Oxford degree. They have also contacted Labour about her claims etc etc. It was the local UKIP party who first raised concerns about her "connections" after they had their previous PPC deselected by UKIP HQ/Farage.
F1: not quite official yet, but seems Button will get the nod:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/30328327
On 'back to the 1930s': the Conservatives should counter that it's 'back to balancing the books, or back to the bust'.
Now that Clegg has shown the way will the Conservatives wake up and use it against Labour and Burnham? It could lengthen Burnham's odds in the EdM replacement market.
Oh.... And we won't kill your first born either like the nasty Tories would.
There's an advert presently airing on TV at the moment for biscuits where all the nice cuddly animals that we all like appear from a pug to a piglet and also singing kittens . I am sure that Ed while making this speech will have such props appearing every few seconds.
If I was a Kipper, or indeed a senior Kipper (urrgh) I would make soothing, supportive noises towards her which would confirm to observers that UKIP also thought she had issues.
As someone involved in advertising I know the the advantages of repetion but there comes a point when the message just becomes wallpaper.
Forgive me saying but you've now gone well past the point of a DFS sale
LabourCut (noun) : The act of announcing a reduction in government spending, possibly repeatedly whilst actually referring to the same money, and then after due consideration quietly increasing spending in the same area and hoping no one notices.
Brown was a terrible Chancellor and PM, but his endless repetition did work, his messages did sink in, despite his having all the charisma of a diarrhoeic skunk and the smile of a serial-killing clown.
Four and a half years in the making, after criticising everything the coalition has done, Labour's alternative is to do essentially everything the Tories plan on doing — with a few tweaks that in the round will be insignificant, like the Mansion Tax, and 50% top rate — but to claim it will be "fairer" and hope that there are enough idiots out there to get them elected.
Labour's alternative economic plan is an alternative in the sense that a red 2014 Vauxhall Astra 1.6 is an alternative to a blue 2014 Vauxhall Astra 1.6. No mention of a Hollande Alternative, I suspect they would like us to forget that! If you are a member of the Labour Party you should ask for your membership fees back, as apparently Balls and Miliband have been asleep at the wheel.
There is something seriously wrong with this country that two utter chumps like Miliband and Balls could soon be running Britain.
Mr. Indigo, indeed. Words like 'fairness' and terms like 'those with the broadest shoulders must bear the heaviest burden' will be lavished hither and thither.
The quantum bankers' bonus tax will make a triumphant return.
Repeat. Put on election material. Repeat.
The one thing Labour cannot escape from is they were the first to privatise an NHS hospital by the very fact only private bidders remained on Labours watch and NHS bidders had left the process "at an early stage".
Except the nice bits, obviously. The bits YOU like will be fine. But the other bits, just watch out...
Repeat to fade.
Curiously, before that, I was accused by various people (including Richad Nabavi) that I had a pathological hatred of the Bush White House, given that I was trying to tell everyone that would listen that they weren't a normal right wing party, but a bunch of law-breaking war criminals.
The 50% tax is nothing more than envy, and I say this as someone who has never been anywhere near earning enough to be in that band. The fact of the matter is the 50% tax rate brought in less tax than the 40% rate did. The total declared taxable income of those earning more than £150,000 a year slumped from £116bn in 2009-10, to £87bn in 2010-11 as the tax was introduced. 50% of 87bn is a less than 40% of 116bn. Which means from the view of paying off the deficit, the issue de jour, its worse than useless.
Labour - Good for Class Envy, Bad for paying off the deficit.
And deservedly so. The case for PR becomes unchallengeable.
Here it comes. As I warned on here a few days ago deflation is now a real risk in EU and may well drag us in too. If this happens then the plans of both Balls and Osborne will be torn up and they will have to start again: there is very little left that the Bank of England can do to help.
(Unless they are rich Tory banker kittens, of course)
The Tory mantra:
Raising tax on very top earners = envy
Taking money off the poor through benefit cuts = common sense.
Ok got it.
Mr. Borough, any idea how swiftly such deflation would spread within (and then beyond) the eurozone?
Edited extra bit: Mr. M, in your example it isn't taking more money off the poor, it's giving them less.
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-fantasy-uk-budget-general-election-2015-2014-12
It is possible now to argue that we have come out of this period and it now makes more sense to start worrying about the deficit. Pure Keynesists may still look at the fragility of things and say its too soon to cut. Balls either doesn't agree with that or the politics are against him. I suspect the latter.
Well Osborne would now be enjoying some nice revenues rolling in from top earners ofsetting the disastrous stagnation of revenues from elsewhere thanks to the Tory burger flipping jobs miracle.
Instead it has Ed Miliband. And is bleeding votes to UKIP, the Greens, the SNP, the Bus Pass Elvis Party...
"That helicopter anecdote, Roger. There will have been a CAA enquiry. Just tell us the year, would you, so that we can confirm the veracity of the whole thing?"
Late 60's. Why are you doubting it? I can assure you it happened!
I'm not quite sure what your problem is? I've shot dozens of times from hellicopters all over the world and I've rarely encountered restrictions on where we could set up and land
The make up and quantity of the UK's income has changed significantly since 2010, partly as a result of increasing globalisation and partly of self-enforced employment patterns and partly due to falling oil income. At the same time the EU demands more and if interest rates rise significantly then the interest on the debt will hurt more than it does now.
Also the YouGov polls show that up to 25% of the VI have not been affected by the 'cuts' and another significant portion ~15% do not know if they have been affected. So that is 30-40% of the VI that no party wants to upset by increasing taxes or withdrawing credits.
Of course if any party seriously upsets the business developers/entrepreneurs, then there are plenty of eastern European states (not forgetting Luxembourg and Switzerland) who would be very willing to have them.
Job snob.
"To encourage work and reward effort, we are pledged not to raise the basic or top rates of income tax throughout the next Parliament."
6 Lab leads
4 Thais
2 Con leads
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
The graph hasn't been updated for 5 weeks unfortunately.
Or .... your message is a 1970's Lada dressed as a Skoda against my Rolls Royce.
If you can't see how having a top tier of boozy white late-middle-aged lascivious men, largely at the fag ends of their careers, frequenting massage parlours, having mistresses, happy to trash the reputations of women they have slept with, might not be overly appealing to female voters, then you are beyond help.
You seem to be the only one who continues to defend this woman.
UKIP certainly deserve criticism for being so star-struck, that they fast-tracked for her promotion.
What's different this time is the collapse in the Con+Lab+LD vote. In the four earlier examples, 2009 is the only occasion when the Lib Dems weren't the main beneficiary and even then they were still polling comfortably in the very high teens: around two and a half times their current level. It's the scale of the combined swing from (C+L+LD) to (UKIP+SNP+G) which is the unique this time. Even so, apart from the SNP, it's unlikely to change the picture in Westminster too radically - as compared with the last period of major upheaval, 1918-35, for example.
I disagreed with keeping FPTP then and I would support the adoption of PR now (not AV, which would be unlikely to produce a significantly different outcome and certainly not a 'fairer' one). Even so, there is probably a good deal less chance of a coalition after the next election than there was when the last one was in prospect: the number of non-Con/Lab MPs won't be greatly different (LD down, SNP up, UKIP marginal), but crucially none of the lesser players is likely to be anywhere near as keen to enter coalition in 2015 as the Lib Dems were in 2010.
There are far more important deficit reduction measures to be taken and I think I can say we are all looking forward to the big reveal.
Of course I won't be the only one who wondered, upon hearing it this morning, how a Lab commitment to eliminating the deficit by 2020 will differ from a Con commitment to eliminating the deficit by 2020.
The news report said they would be ring-fencing some areas (health, foreign aid) but not others but that this wouldn't be revealed until the GE (five months now).
I am in a frenzy of anticipation.
Another Nat mantra goes the way of the Dodo...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11286161/The-euro-is-heading-for-disaster-what-luck-for-David-Cameron.html
For the UK the politically interesting question is: What happens to the UKIP vote if and when then EU melts?
I wish journalists would question Labour about the revenue their proposals will hypothetically bring in, and compare it to the size of the deficit. Labour's alternative economic plan is only minutely different from the actions that they have endlessly criticised.
"If I was a Kipper, or indeed a senior Kipper....."
Is that something like an old trout?
Codswallop quite frankly. Where would they have gone? After the disastrous June 2010 G20 summit the world pretty much stagnated following Osborne inspired calls for austerity.
We've also got to recall the eurozone sovereign debt crisis had quite an impact, and will do again in the future.
And what is Balls supposed to do? Tax receipts are way below target, borrowing twice what Ozzy promised. Labour have little wiggle room.
If you can't see how having a top tier of boozy white late-middle-aged lascivious men, largely at the fag ends of their careers, frequenting massage parlours, having mistresses, happy to trash the reputations of women they have slept with, might not be overly appealing to female voters, then you are beyond help.
That nails the HoC very accurately, but to be fair there are only two UKIP MPs.
UKIP certainly deserve criticism for being so star-struck, that they fast-tracked for her promotion.
It's not that I am defending her per se, but when a party has a problem with women generally, it looks insensitive in the extreme to be putting on the kicking boots with such glee.
Anyway, off to the Thingvellir National Park, home to the Icelandic Parliament in 900 AD. Yes folks, there are things in politics even older than the UKIP grandees.....
The bigger impact by far was Osborne's self imposed unnecessary austerity.
There is no alternative.
Mr. Mark, hope you have a nice time. What's the weather like?