"Brown was a terrible Chancellor and PM, but his endless repetition did work, his messages did sink in, despite his having all the charisma of a diarrhoeic skunk and the smile of a serial-killing clown."
Maybe Jack's right!
“The most brilliant propagandist technique will yield no success unless one fundamental principle is borne in mind constantly - it must confine itself to a few points and repeat them over and over.”
Mr. Ajob, hilarious for Labour to bitch about excessive spending when they left behind such a ruinous deficit, complained it was being narrowed too swiftly and opposed a bevy of measures to do so (including a £26,000 annual cap on benefits).
Mr. Mark, hope you have a nice time. What's the weather like?
Mr Dancer. It's Iceland in December. Take a wild guess....
EDIT rather surprisingly, given how far West they are, Iceland is on UK time. But given how far north it is, it gets gradually light from about now. It starts getting dark about four pm. Plenty of lying snow, but the vicious Polar wind means it drifts. Then sits as ice. Walking about is, er, entertaining....
On topic, while it may be a new Con+Lab low next year, it's unlikely to be so by any great amount. There have been any number of times when the C+L figure has been in the 60s, as the graph shows (and as an aside, the graph doesn't strictly show anything about what's *going* to happen). 1981-2, 1985-6, 2003-4 and 2009 are all times when both big parties suffered simultaneous unpopularity.
What's different this time is the collapse in the Con+Lab+LD vote. In the four earlier examples, 2009 is the only occasion when the Lib Dems weren't the main beneficiary and even then they were still polling comfortably in the very high teens: around two and a half times their current level. It's the scale of the combined swing from (C+L+LD) to (UKIP+SNP+G) which is the unique this time. Even so, apart from the SNP, it's unlikely to change the picture in Westminster too radically - as compared with the last period of major upheaval, 1918-35, for example.
This gets to the heart of it. Labour and the Conservatives' combined tallies don't look as if they will be all that different from 2010. What will be radically different will be the Lib Dems' share and the SNP's share. Right now the Lib Dems would be ecstatic if their vote share only halved while the SNP are hoping that their vote share might double.
Both of these changes make uniform national swing highly unreliable wherever one of these two parties is seriously in the mix.
Mr. Ajob, hilarious for Labour to bitch about excessive spending when they left behind such a ruinous deficit, complained it was being narrowed too swiftly and opposed a bevy of measures to do so (including a £26,000 annual cap on benefits).
Mr. Mark, hope you have a nice time. What's the weather like?
Every time you say this, I respond in the same way and you disappear. The austerity programme in the early years of the Coalition was a complete due as it lacked sufficient capital investment. Now I know the spotty GCSE Tory economists will rise up and say "ha ha so you can borrow less by borrowing more". Yes indeed, if you invest in economic development with capital spending. Running an economy is not like running a household budget, as any fule know.
Mr. Timmo, that kind of difference was not only predictable, but predicted by everyone who wasn't a Huhne/Clegg-style fantasising federalist. You can't shackle together a score of nations with varying populations, demographics, work cultures and fiscal policies and force them all to have one exchange rate.
Well, you can. And if you're Germany it's worked pretty well at cementing your leadership of the EU. But if you're Greece, it's less lovely.
Mr. Roger, the Nazis were masters of PR. The swastika remains an incredibly powerful symbol even today, and despite the fact they nicked it from various other cultures (possibly most notably the Indians). Got a copy of the Jungle Book from 1922 with a little elephant and a swastika on the front.
Mr. Mark, is it warm and sunny? Do flaxen-haired maidens frolic in bikinis, pausing only to rub suntan lotion into one another's thighs?
It could be windy, or rainy, or snowy, or hailing.
Mr. Ajob, Labour brought forward a lot of spending to try and improve things artificially for the election (but doing that means less money for later). What capital investment was Labour actually proposing? Right now there are plans for HS2 and a large scale road-building scheme [frankly, I have doubts the latter will live up to the billing, but there we are].
Mr. Ajob, hilarious for Labour to bitch about excessive spending when they left behind such a ruinous deficit, complained it was being narrowed too swiftly and opposed a bevy of measures to do so (including a £26,000 annual cap on benefits).
Ms Bolter said: “I was a Labour Party activist. I joined because I supported their principles, that grew from the trade unions.
.
Oh dear.
The way the kippers have tried to dismantle her credibilty has not exactly been edifying. I can see why women have a problem with UKIP.
Oh come off it, the Tories would have done exactly the same thing, and historically have, just look at Sara Keays. Its either that or leave your man hanging in the wind while the Guardian tips the slop bucket over him, and there is no "tried" about it, she lied, repeatedly, in stupid ways and expected her target to just sit there and take it.
UKIP, the new politics. Yeah, right.... "We're doing politics like eighties Tories did politics"
.
Well, maybe having another woman presenting UKIP's position might help. Oh, but UKIP don't exactly have women queuing up to represent them.
You seem to be the only one who continues to defend this woman.
UKIP certainly deserve criticism for being so star-struck, that they fast-tracked for her promotion.
It's not that I am defending her per se, but when a party has a problem with women generally, it looks insensitive in the extreme to be putting on the kicking boots with such glee.
Anyway, off to the Thingvellir National Park, home to the Icelandic Parliament in 900 AD. Yes folks, there are things in politics even older than the UKIP grandees.....
Firstly, There are plenty of women in senior roles at UKIP.
Secondly, who in UKIP is putting the boot into her? Michael Crick, The Telegraph & The Labour Party are the three sources for the news that she didn't go to Oxford and wasn't a prominent Labour Party activist, why are you blaming UKIP?
Roger Bird was accused of sexually harassing a woman he had been seeing.. all he did was prove that he had been seeing her, without saying anything bad about her. Who wouldn't have done the same?
We get that you don't like UKIP, but you make yourself look silly grabbling around trying to find a stick to beat them with every day.
Mr. M, and it'd be higher still if Labour had won votes defeating the measures taken to reduce welfare spending.
Labour is both criticising the fact we have a deficit and the measures taken to narrow it. That's not how logic works. You can't criticise a meal as tasting foul and complain the portions are too small.
"Brown was a terrible Chancellor and PM, but his endless repetition did work, his messages did sink in, despite his having all the charisma of a diarrhoeic skunk and the smile of a serial-killing clown."
Maybe Jack's right!
Maybe !! Maybe !!
How could you doubt me ??
I support the Coalition but business is business and if I thought Ed was a winner and about to cross the portals of Number 10 I'd punt accordingly and advise PBers to do likewise in spades.
I mean Roger, do you really, I mean really expect Ed to be PM .... in your cool headed heart of hearts ??
Mr. M, and it'd be higher still if Labour had won votes defeating the measures taken to reduce welfare spending.
Labour is both criticising the fact we have a deficit and the measures taken to narrow it. That's not how logic works. You can't criticise a meal as tasting foul and complain the portions are too small.
The "cap" doesn't work because the Tory jobs miracle... well, just isn't one.
Every time the Tories get into office welfare spending rises. It's housing costs that are doing for Osborne this time - it's usually out of work benefits that the Tories splurge on.
Mr. Ajob, hilarious for Labour to bitch about excessive spending when they left behind such a ruinous deficit, complained it was being narrowed too swiftly and opposed a bevy of measures to do so (including a £26,000 annual cap on benefits).
Mr. Mark, hope you have a nice time. What's the weather like?
Mr Dancer. It's Iceland in December. Take a wild guess....
EDIT rather surprisingly, given how far West they are, Iceland is on UK time. But given how far north it is, it gets gradually light from about now. It starts getting dark about four pm. Plenty of lying snow, but the vicious Polar wind means it drifts. Then sits as ice. Walking about is, er, entertaining....
It’s awe-inspiring to go to the site of the original Icelandic Parliament, which IIRC is around ther area where the N American and European tectonic plates meet.
On topic, were a Feb 74 type scenario to occur next year and the duopoly (Con-Lab) fall to below 60, it wouldn't have a huge impact.
It would have if a single third party was hoovering up the bulk oif the remaining votes and polling in the range 30-35% but, with respect to UKIP, we don't have that.
UKIP have at best 20% with the LDs and Greens combining for another 15% so the "third" Party vote is split which will ensure the survival of the duopoly.
Throw in the SNP (and to a much lesser extent) PC and you have almost a European-style fragmentation which would lead to a coalescing around two "blocs" of potential Government.
Under FPTP, however, the duopoly will still win the overwheelming majority of the seats with the others fighting for the scraps in various regions.
As for Labour's budget plans, we need much more meat on the bones before we can pass judgement. If the only critique is to go back to the Blair-Brown years, that's pretty weak. After all, the Conservatives in Opposition were happy to match Labour spending plans.
Parties are entitled to change their views as circumstances change - parties which were once pro-European have now become strongly anti-European and vice versa.
It will be fascinating to see if MIliband and Balls are prepared to talk openly about tax increases or about cutting in areas ring-fenced by the Coalition. Both would provide political ammunition for their opponents but would at the same time offer much credibility to the financial plans.
The mansion tax I can sort of understand even though its idiotic, unfairly hits the land-rich/cash-poor segment of society, and is generally a sledgehammer to crack a walnut, but atleast it will raise some money, £300m if Balls sticks to his threshold and rate, but not many people believe that he will.
It's laughable, but listening to Balls you would think that the Mansion Tax will "pay for the NHS".
I wish journalists would question Labour about the revenue their proposals will hypothetically bring in, and compare it to the size of the deficit. Labour's alternative economic plan is only minutely different from the actions that they have endlessly criticised.
Labour FINALLY coming round to Maggie's way of seeing things.
There is no alternative.
There is an alternative: put up taxes. It's not one they're willing to countenance on the scale that would be necessary but it is an alternative. An increase of, say, five points in the basic rate would bring in serious money, as would dropping either or both of the starting/higher band thresholds.
That's not to say it wouldn't have consequences, both politically and economically, but it is an option.
The real root of the problem is the belief that the country is entitled to the standard of living it's currently enjoying, whether or not it's earning it. But deflating any bubble is difficult and this debt-fuelled one is no different in that respect.
Mr. Ajob, hilarious for Labour to bitch about excessive spending when they left behind such a ruinous deficit, complained it was being narrowed too swiftly and opposed a bevy of measures to do so (including a £26,000 annual cap on benefits).
Behind the bluster, the Tories and the Lib Dems are preparing for another coalition
This bit really stood out
They also acknowledge that the party’s leadership would rather continue to do business with the Tories than enter government with a Labour Party regarded as irredeemably tribal and impervious to compromise.
One MP tells me that the Lib Dems would be prepared to take the path rejected by the Liberal leader Jeremy Thorpe in 1974 and prop up a Conservative government with more votes than Miliband’s party but fewer seats. Cameron – who, as the incumbent, enjoys first preference on any future coalition – can give thanks for that.
Mr. Mark, is it warm and sunny? Do flaxen-haired maidens frolic in bikinis, pausing only to rub suntan lotion into one another's thighs?
It could be windy, or rainy, or snowy, or hailing.
Mr. Ajob, Labour brought forward a lot of spending to try and improve things artificially for the election (but doing that means less money for later). What capital investment was Labour actually proposing? Right now there are plans for HS2 and a large scale road-building scheme [frankly, I have doubts the latter will live up to the billing, but there we are].
If you want flaxen haired maidens frolicing in bikinis (or something close it) in the winter you don’t have to go as far as Iceland. Newcastle will do
Ms Bolter said: “I was a Labour Party activist. I joined because I supported their principles, that grew from the trade unions.
“Labour began as the party of the working class – this is not what I found.”
But the Telegraph can reveal the divorced mother-of-five was only a Labour member for a mere eight months, after June 2013 until the middle of 2014, according to sources inside the party.
Oh dear.
The way the kippers have tried to dismantle her credibilty has not exactly been edifying. I can see why women have a problem with UKIP.
Mark, surely the man who she has made allegations about is allowed to defend himself?
King Cole, when an American friend of mine visited England (managing to time his holiday with the worst winter in a century) he was astounded to see so many girls walking around with mini-skirts and bare legs amidst the snow and ice.
Behind the bluster, the Tories and the Lib Dems are preparing for another coalition
This bit really stood out
They also acknowledge that the party’s leadership would rather continue to do business with the Tories than enter government with a Labour Party regarded as irredeemably tribal and impervious to compromise.
One MP tells me that the Lib Dems would be prepared to take the path rejected by the Liberal leader Jeremy Thorpe in 1974 and prop up a Conservative government with more votes than Miliband’s party but fewer seats. Cameron – who, as the incumbent, enjoys first preference on any future coalition – can give thanks for that.
One difference between now and 1974 is that we are due an election. In early 1974 we weren’t for another 18 months, and the Tories campaigned on the slogan “Who runs Britain”. To which the electorates answer was “Not you."
Mr. W, will Cable remain? I imagine, if we get a second Con-Lib coalition, Clegg would be only too happy to throw him overboard and give someone less of a pain in the arse an opportunity at the top table.
Besides, how many of those will still be there after the election? From what I've read here Danny Alexander is, politically, a dead man walking.
King Cole, when an American friend of mine visited England (managing to time his holiday with the worst winter in a century) he was astounded to see so many girls walking around with mini-skirts and bare legs amidst the snow and ice.
"At Bath bus station I was eavesdropping on a nearby group of schoolchildren, when I heard them refer to one of their teachers.
"They wouldn’t like to be alone with this particular man, they all agreed, because he “looks a bit Ukip”. Apparently, this means what a previous generation might have called “creepy”.""
Mr. W, I must confess that the bare-legged ladies of England he saw were in the north, either side of the Pennines [ahem, different girls, I hasten to add].
King Cole, when an American friend of mine visited England (managing to time his holiday with the worst winter in a century) he was astounded to see so many girls walking around with mini-skirts and bare legs amidst the snow and ice.
I know; it’s amazing. Some years ago, on a bitterly cold January day, I attended the funeral of a 13 year old lad who’d been found dead. I was representing his mother’s employers, and one of her female colleagues, with whom I was sharing an umbrella against the icy rain in the graveyard, couldn’t help commenting on the number of his female classmates who were wearing miniskirts and no overcoats.
King Cole, when an American friend of mine visited England (managing to time his holiday with the worst winter in a century) he was astounded to see so many girls walking around with mini-skirts and bare legs amidst the snow and ice.
When my sister was about 18, one New Years Eve she was going out to meet some of her friends at a local outside meeting spot for some revelry. When she came downstairs from applying her warpaint, my father observed that it was -5C outside and she appeared to be wearing a skirt the proportions of which wouldn't disgrace a belt. "Dad! its fashionable!" quoth she, thereby ending the discussion.
Behind the bluster, the Tories and the Lib Dems are preparing for another coalition
This bit really stood out
They also acknowledge that the party’s leadership would rather continue to do business with the Tories than enter government with a Labour Party regarded as irredeemably tribal and impervious to compromise.
One MP tells me that the Lib Dems would be prepared to take the path rejected by the Liberal leader Jeremy Thorpe in 1974 and prop up a Conservative government with more votes than Miliband’s party but fewer seats. Cameron – who, as the incumbent, enjoys first preference on any future coalition – can give thanks for that.
Yes, well, I don't know who "they" are to be honest.
I've long been of the view that unless the Party is near to its current strength, it should not go into Coalition again. The philosophical convergence of Orange-Book Liberalism and Liberal Conservatism as a response to the long Labour years has ended and the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have and are diverging.
Is there a matching convergence with Labour ? To a degree, perhaps, and it will be interesting to see what Labour has to offer on its spending plans
As to whether a much-reduced (say 25-30) LD Party can or should offer Confidence & Supply to a minority Government - my gut feeling is no but the practicalities of the need to provide some form of stable governance will doubtless push the survivors one way or another.
The conundrum is the arithmetic could be so different - the SNP could be the third party in terms of size, we don't know what the UKIP strength will be.
Behind the bluster, the Tories and the Lib Dems are preparing for another coalition
The question is, could the respective leaderships carry their parties with them? In the case of the Tories, I think the answer is yes, but there would be a lot of grumbling and a fair bit of support for going for a minority government instead (which would be misguided, in my view).
In the case of the LibDems this looks, from the outside at least, more problematic. Not for the first time, we might find that the leadership are willing, but the party as a whole is not:
Mr. W, I must confess that the bare-legged ladies of England he saw were in the north, either side of the Pennines [ahem, different girls, I hasten to add].
Bare-legged !! .... Farage would be outraged to see such decadence but for the fact he'd never make it there for all the traffic on the M1.
Behind the bluster, the Tories and the Lib Dems are preparing for another coalition
The question is, could the respective leaderships carry their parties with them? In the case of the Tories, I think the answer is yes, but there would be a lot of grumbling and a fair bit of support for going for a minority government instead (which would be misguided, in my view).
In the case of the LibDems this looks, from the outside at least, more problematic. Not for the first time, we might find that the leadership are willing, but the party as a whole is not:
If the numbers make no sense otherwise, I think the Lib Dems are more likely to decide to form a second coalition of necessity than to leave the Conservatives to a minority government. Ditto Labour - though I doubt Labour is in the mood to play nice with the Lib Dems, as that article hints.
If the Lib Dems have any kind of real choice between Labour and the Conservatives, my hunch is that they would choose supply and confidence with whoever could put together a minority government rather than make a choice that would enervate them still further. But that's close to a blind guess.
Behind the bluster, the Tories and the Lib Dems are preparing for another coalition
This bit really stood out
They also acknowledge that the party’s leadership would rather continue to do business with the Tories than enter government with a Labour Party regarded as irredeemably tribal and impervious to compromise.
One MP tells me that the Lib Dems would be prepared to take the path rejected by the Liberal leader Jeremy Thorpe in 1974 and prop up a Conservative government with more votes than Miliband’s party but fewer seats. Cameron – who, as the incumbent, enjoys first preference on any future coalition – can give thanks for that.
A-ha, there we have it. Conditions for 2nd Con-LD coalition: EU vote in exchange for HoL reform and PR for local elections (presumably the latter without a referendum)
As predicted by several old sages on here, I understand.
Behind the bluster, the Tories and the Lib Dems are preparing for another coalition
The question is, could the respective leaderships carry their parties with them? In the case of the Tories, I think the answer is yes, but there would be a lot of grumbling and a fair bit of support for going for a minority government instead (which would be misguided, in my view).
In the case of the LibDems this looks, from the outside at least, more problematic. Not for the first time, we might find that the leadership are willing, but the party as a whole is not:
Mr. Royale, if the Lib Dems demand to bugger up the Lords and inflict without a vote a new, stupid, voting system on the electorate in return for merely asking the question (which, I believe was in the 2005 or 2010 Lib Dem manifesto, I forget which) about the UK's membership of the EU the Conservatives should tell Clegg to piss off.
The constitutional settlement has been cocked up enough by Labour's half-baked, narrow-minded, short-sighted idiocy without letting the Lib Dems have one-off 15 year terms, or some such delinquent foolishness.
Yes, I know, but I think a majority of Tory MPs would back another coalition if that's how the arithmetic works out (subject obviously to the exact deal). A substantial minority would be against the idea, though.
King Cole, when an American friend of mine visited England (managing to time his holiday with the worst winter in a century) he was astounded to see so many girls walking around with mini-skirts and bare legs amidst the snow and ice.
When my sister was about 18, one New Years Eve she was going out to meet some of her friends at a local outside meeting spot for some revelry. When she came downstairs from applying her warpaint, my father observed that it was -5C outside and she appeared to be wearing a skirt the proportions of which wouldn't disgrace a belt. "Dad! its fashionable!" quoth she, thereby ending the discussion.
Same line today from my daughter (under 20). Grumpy.
How ironic that as Alan Rusbridger announces he's about to step down as Guardian Editor-In-Chief, disgraced typically UKIP material ex MP Neil Hamilton pops up in the news to remind us of one of the Guardian's finest hours under his tenure.
For me, ridding us of the creepy criminal enterprise that was the News of the World remains the signal achievement.
Behind the bluster, the Tories and the Lib Dems are preparing for another coalition
The question is, could the respective leaderships carry their parties with them? In the case of the Tories, I think the answer is yes, but there would be a lot of grumbling and a fair bit of support for going for a minority government instead (which would be misguided, in my view).
In the case of the LibDems this looks, from the outside at least, more problematic. Not for the first time, we might find that the leadership are willing, but the party as a whole is not:
If the numbers make no sense otherwise, I think the Lib Dems are more likely to decide to form a second coalition of necessity than to leave the Conservatives to a minority government. Ditto Labour - though I doubt Labour is in the mood to play nice with the Lib Dems, as that article hints.
If the Lib Dems have any kind of real choice between Labour and the Conservatives, my hunch is that they would choose supply and confidence with whoever could put together a minority government rather than make a choice that would enervate them still further. But that's close to a blind guess.
Supply and confidence is the worst of all worlds - all of the blame and none of the power.
Yes, I know, but I think a majority of Tory MPs would back another coalition if that's how the arithmetic works out (subject obviously to the exact deal). A substantial minority would be against the idea, though.
Yes, I know, but I think a majority of Tory MPs would back another coalition if that's how the arithmetic works out (subject obviously to the exact deal). A substantial minority would be against the idea, though.
Yes, I know, but I think a majority of Tory MPs would back another coalition if that's how the arithmetic works out (subject obviously to the exact deal). A substantial minority would be against the idea, though.
I was chatting to someone a few weeks ago about this, he thinks if the Tories win the popular vote next year (and most seats), but short of a majority, Tory MPs might derail a second coalition, thinking a second election in 2015 might be the way to get an overall majority.
There is a significant strand of Tory MPs who think Dave would have won a majority in a second election held in 2010.
I suspect the drop in support for Con/Lab will probably end with some sort of realignment of the parties - Democrats (wet Tories, right wing lefties and sensible Libs) against nationalists (right wing Tories and Kippers) against Socialists (leftie lefties, Greens and mad Lib's)
How ironic that as Alan Rusbridger announces he's about to step down as Guardian Editor-In-Chief, disgraced typically UKIP material ex MP Neil Hamilton pops up in the news to remind us of one of the Guardian's finest hours under his tenure.
For me, ridding us of the creepy criminal enterprise that was the News of the World remains the signal achievement.
Rubbisher has created more unemployment amongst hacks and more court cases against hacks than any other Editor. A remarkable "record".
Mr. Royale, if the Lib Dems demand to bugger up the Lords and inflict without a vote a new, stupid, voting system on the electorate in return for merely asking the question (which, I believe was in the 2005 or 2010 Lib Dem manifesto, I forget which) about the UK's membership of the EU the Conservatives should tell Clegg to piss off.
The constitutional settlement has been cocked up enough by Labour's half-baked, narrow-minded, short-sighted idiocy without letting the Lib Dems have one-off 15 year terms, or some such delinquent foolishness.
I hear what you're saying, and have reservations on HoL reform myself. However, speaking for myself personally, I really don't care too much what method we use to elect those who decide how often our bins will be emptied. Although my preference would be open-list PR.
It's more likely to do UKIP a favour than the Lib Dems anywho.
It's Christmas Eve and a couple are doing last minute shopping when her husband disappears. She phones him on his mobile "Where are you?"
In a calm voice he replies "Darling remember the jewellery shop we went in five years ago and you fell in love with that diamond necklace we couldn't afford and I said one day I would get it for you?"
It's Christmas Eve and a couple are doing last minute shopping when her husband disappears. She phones him on his mobile "Where are you?"
In a calm voice he replies "Darling remember the jewellery shop we went in five years ago and you fell in love with that diamond necklace we couldn't afford and I said one day I would get it for you?"
Her eyes filled with tears "Yes I remember"
"Well I'm in the pub next door to that"
That's the best thing you have ever written on here
Behind the bluster, the Tories and the Lib Dems are preparing for another coalition
This bit really stood out
They also acknowledge that the party’s leadership would rather continue to do business with the Tories than enter government with a Labour Party regarded as irredeemably tribal and impervious to compromise.
One MP tells me that the Lib Dems would be prepared to take the path rejected by the Liberal leader Jeremy Thorpe in 1974 and prop up a Conservative government with more votes than Miliband’s party but fewer seats. Cameron – who, as the incumbent, enjoys first preference on any future coalition – can give thanks for that.
A-ha, there we have it. Conditions for 2nd Con-LD coalition: EU vote in exchange for HoL reform and PR for local elections (presumably the latter without a referendum)
As predicted by several old sages on here, I understand.
The Lib Dems won't allow an EU vote. They're EU sycophants to their core.
How ironic that as Alan Rusbridger announces he's about to step down as Guardian Editor-In-Chief, disgraced typically UKIP material ex MP Neil Hamilton pops up in the news to remind us of one of the Guardian's finest hours under his tenure.
For me, ridding us of the creepy criminal enterprise that was the News of the World remains the signal achievement.
Rubbisher has created more unemployment amongst hacks and more court cases against hacks than any other Editor. A remarkable "record".
Mr. W, will Cable remain? I imagine, if we get a second Con-Lib coalition, Clegg would be only too happy to throw him overboard and give someone less of a pain in the arse an opportunity at the top table.
Besides, how many of those will still be there after the election? From what I've read here Danny Alexander is, politically, a dead man walking.
With no female MPs having a LD female cabinet minister may need to be achieved through asking a chap to become a tv. Simon Hughes might.
Behind the bluster, the Tories and the Lib Dems are preparing for another coalition
This bit really stood out
They also acknowledge that the party’s leadership would rather continue to do business with the Tories than enter government with a Labour Party regarded as irredeemably tribal and impervious to compromise.
One MP tells me that the Lib Dems would be prepared to take the path rejected by the Liberal leader Jeremy Thorpe in 1974 and prop up a Conservative government with more votes than Miliband’s party but fewer seats. Cameron – who, as the incumbent, enjoys first preference on any future coalition – can give thanks for that.
A-ha, there we have it. Conditions for 2nd Con-LD coalition: EU vote in exchange for HoL reform and PR for local elections (presumably the latter without a referendum)
As predicted by several old sages on here, I understand.
The Lib Dems won't allow an EU vote. They're EU sycophants to their core.
Cameron has said he won't be PM if he can't offer an EU referendum
The Lib Dems won't allow an EU vote. They're EU sycophants to their core.
I think they will. Why shouldn't they? You think it would be won by the Stay In side, thanks to David Cameron's uniquely powerful persuasive powers, and no doubt they would agree with you.
It looks like the courts have been eating their shredded wheat when it comes to child abuse:
BBC Breaking News @BBCBreaking · 41s41 seconds ago Former DJ Ray Teret jailed for 25 years at Manchester court for rapes and indecent assaults on girls as young as 12 http://bbc.in/1yBSa2N
Following the case of the Addenbrookes doctor, it seems the courts are toughening up their act.
It's Christmas Eve and a couple are doing last minute shopping when her husband disappears. She phones him on his mobile "Where are you?"
In a calm voice he replies "Darling remember the jewellery shop we went in five years ago and you fell in love with that diamond necklace we couldn't afford and I said one day I would get it for you?"
Her eyes filled with tears "Yes I remember"
"Well I'm in the pub next door to that"
That's the best thing you have ever written on here
Behind the bluster, the Tories and the Lib Dems are preparing for another coalition
This bit really stood out
They also acknowledge that the party’s leadership would rather continue to do business with the Tories than enter government with a Labour Party regarded as irredeemably tribal and impervious to compromise.
One MP tells me that the Lib Dems would be prepared to take the path rejected by the Liberal leader Jeremy Thorpe in 1974 and prop up a Conservative government with more votes than Miliband’s party but fewer seats. Cameron – who, as the incumbent, enjoys first preference on any future coalition – can give thanks for that.
A-ha, there we have it. Conditions for 2nd Con-LD coalition: EU vote in exchange for HoL reform and PR for local elections (presumably the latter without a referendum)
As predicted by several old sages on here, I understand.
The Lib Dems won't allow an EU vote. They're EU sycophants to their core.
Have the damn thing, have IN win it (again) and put the issue to bed. Then get on with helping to make Europe work.
The Lib Dems won't allow an EU vote. They're EU sycophants to their core.
I think they will. Why shouldn't they? You think it would be won by the Stay In side, thanks to David Cameron's uniquely powerful persuasive powers, and no doubt they would agree with you.
As long as it's on a fair basis: an agreed situation for what EU membership we're voting to be a part of or not, then we will vote to leave. Of course, David Cameron won't offer that.
The fact is that the Lib Dems, Labour and the Tories all try to dodge referenda on Europe as much as possible. They all try to promise them only for times when they won't be in power, and if they are in power, they dodge them.
"That she'd been given preferential treatment because he had designs on her? "
Incredible. I bet that's never happened before in the whole history of politics. Ban 'em immediately.
Forget that story, the most shocking story about UKIP candidates this week was that they thought putting Neil Hamilton as a candidate next year was a good idea.
Why sensible Kippers like Richard Tyndall and Sean Fear could spot that was a disaster waiting to happen, and UKIP high command couldn't is worrying if you're a purple.
As someone said last night, next week they'll be putting up Jeffrey Archer and Jonathan Aitken as candidates.
"That she'd been given preferential treatment because he had designs on her? "
Incredible. I bet that's never happened before in the whole history of politics. Ban 'em immediately.
My view on this "scandal" from the start has been that no one normal gives a flying fig about it. The only point of interest from it is that it suggests that UKIP's depth of candidate quality seems to run very thin very quickly.
It's Christmas Eve and a couple are doing last minute shopping when her husband disappears. She phones him on his mobile "Where are you?"
In a calm voice he replies "Darling remember the jewellery shop we went in five years ago and you fell in love with that diamond necklace we couldn't afford and I said one day I would get it for you?"
Her eyes filled with tears "Yes I remember"
"Well I'm in the pub next door to that"
That's the best thing you have ever written on here
Mr. W, will Cable remain? I imagine, if we get a second Con-Lib coalition, Clegg would be only too happy to throw him overboard and give someone less of a pain in the arse an opportunity at the top table.
Besides, how many of those will still be there after the election? From what I've read here Danny Alexander is, politically, a dead man walking.
Only Alexander is vunerable.
St Vince of the Cable represents an important strand in the party that Clegg can't ignore and probably wouldn't want to as Vince is the living embodiment of differentiation from the Tories that even in Coalition is important.
100 run partnership for Taylor and Root. It is going to take real talent to lose this game from here. Taylor's position in the team is now inked in but I still regret that Hales is not getting enough games.
100 run partnership for Taylor and Root. It is going to take real talent to lose this game from here. Taylor's position in the team is now inked in but I still regret that Hales is not getting enough games.
DavidL, you're getting exiled to conhome for that.
The Lib Dems won't allow an EU vote. They're EU sycophants to their core.
I think they will. Why shouldn't they? You think it would be won by the Stay In side, thanks to David Cameron's uniquely powerful persuasive powers, and no doubt they would agree with you.
As long as it's on a fair basis: an agreed situation for what EU membership we're voting to be a part of or not, then we will vote to leave. Of course, David Cameron won't offer that.
The fact is that the Lib Dems, Labour and the Tories all try to dodge referenda on Europe as much as possible. They all try to promise them only for times when they won't be in power, and if they are in power, they dodge them.
You're tying yourself in absurd knots, arguing simultaneously that the 'Europhiles' (whoever they are) are terrified of an EU referendum, and that it can't be won by the Out side because Cameron will fix it. One moment you post links saying how much support there is for leaving, or how distrusted Cameron is, or how useless he is at politics, or how the renegotiation can't achieve anything, and the next moment you're saying that if he recommends staying in on the basis of a flaky renegotiation, there's nothing the BOOers and the peoples' army can do to dissuade the public from following his advice.
I'm striving hard to be polite to Kippers, so I'll refrain from saying this is fruitcake-loon bonkers, but it is, shall we say, intellectually inconsistent.
Sporting has the Tories +1 today at 279-285 GE 2015 seats, that's just 4 seats (or one encouraging poll) behind an unchanged Labour on 283 - 289. For those looking for a credible "wisdom poll", this has to be it, where hard cash concentrates minds wonderfully.
Behind the bluster, the Tories and the Lib Dems are preparing for another coalition
This bit really stood out
They also acknowledge that the party’s leadership would rather continue to do business with the Tories than enter government with a Labour Party regarded as irredeemably tribal and impervious to compromise.
One MP tells me that the Lib Dems would be prepared to take the path rejected by the Liberal leader Jeremy Thorpe in 1974 and prop up a Conservative government with more votes than Miliband’s party but fewer seats. Cameron – who, as the incumbent, enjoys first preference on any future coalition – can give thanks for that.
A-ha, there we have it. Conditions for 2nd Con-LD coalition: EU vote in exchange for HoL reform and PR for local elections (presumably the latter without a referendum)
As predicted by several old sages on here, I understand.
The principal beneficiaries from PR in local elections would be UKIP and the Green Party. The losers would be the Conservatives and Labour.
100 run partnership for Taylor and Root. It is going to take real talent to lose this game from here. Taylor's position in the team is now inked in but I still regret that Hales is not getting enough games.
DavidL, you're getting exiled to conhome for that.
Still confident. Wickets in hand, ahead of the run rate, what could go wrong?
Forget political parties altogether. The age of the independent is upon us. Local people known in the constituency will get elected, no more implants from London who care nothing apart from their rise up the greasy pole, their weird sex lives and their chance to become high level criminals beyond the reach of the law.
Comments
"Brown was a terrible Chancellor and PM, but his endless repetition did work, his messages did sink in, despite his having all the charisma of a diarrhoeic skunk and the smile of a serial-killing clown."
Maybe Jack's right!
“The most brilliant propagandist technique will yield no success unless one fundamental principle is borne in mind constantly - it must confine itself to a few points and repeat them over and over.”
― Joseph Goebbels
EDIT rather surprisingly, given how far West they are, Iceland is on UK time. But given how far north it is, it gets gradually light from about now. It starts getting dark about four pm. Plenty of lying snow, but the vicious Polar wind means it drifts. Then sits as ice. Walking about is, er, entertaining....
Both of these changes make uniform national swing highly unreliable wherever one of these two parties is seriously in the mix.
Well, you can. And if you're Germany it's worked pretty well at cementing your leadership of the EU. But if you're Greece, it's less lovely.
Mr. Roger, the Nazis were masters of PR. The swastika remains an incredibly powerful symbol even today, and despite the fact they nicked it from various other cultures (possibly most notably the Indians). Got a copy of the Jungle Book from 1922 with a little elephant and a swastika on the front.
It could be windy, or rainy, or snowy, or hailing.
Mr. Ajob, Labour brought forward a lot of spending to try and improve things artificially for the election (but doing that means less money for later). What capital investment was Labour actually proposing? Right now there are plans for HS2 and a large scale road-building scheme [frankly, I have doubts the latter will live up to the billing, but there we are].
Anyway, off to the Thingvellir National Park, home to the Icelandic Parliament in 900 AD. Yes folks, there are things in politics even older than the UKIP grandees.....
Firstly, There are plenty of women in senior roles at UKIP.
Secondly, who in UKIP is putting the boot into her? Michael Crick, The Telegraph & The Labour Party are the three sources for the news that she didn't go to Oxford and wasn't a prominent Labour Party activist, why are you blaming UKIP?
Roger Bird was accused of sexually harassing a woman he had been seeing.. all he did was prove that he had been seeing her, without saying anything bad about her. Who wouldn't have done the same?
We get that you don't like UKIP, but you make yourself look silly grabbling around trying to find a stick to beat them with every day.
Labour is both criticising the fact we have a deficit and the measures taken to narrow it. That's not how logic works. You can't criticise a meal as tasting foul and complain the portions are too small.
How could you doubt me ??
I support the Coalition but business is business and if I thought Ed was a winner and about to cross the portals of Number 10 I'd punt accordingly and advise PBers to do likewise in spades.
I mean Roger, do you really, I mean really expect Ed to be PM .... in your cool headed heart of hearts ??
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/10/juncker-amazon-luxembourg-eased-tax-expert-comfort
Quite why the Guardian is being so obliging for the Prime Minister is open to conjecture.
Every time the Tories get into office welfare spending rises. It's housing costs that are doing for Osborne this time - it's usually out of work benefits that the Tories splurge on.
On topic, were a Feb 74 type scenario to occur next year and the duopoly (Con-Lab) fall to below 60, it wouldn't have a huge impact.
It would have if a single third party was hoovering up the bulk oif the remaining votes and polling in the range 30-35% but, with respect to UKIP, we don't have that.
UKIP have at best 20% with the LDs and Greens combining for another 15% so the "third" Party vote is split which will ensure the survival of the duopoly.
Throw in the SNP (and to a much lesser extent) PC and you have almost a European-style fragmentation which would lead to a coalescing around two "blocs" of potential Government.
Under FPTP, however, the duopoly will still win the overwheelming majority of the seats with the others fighting for the scraps in various regions.
Parties are entitled to change their views as circumstances change - parties which were once pro-European have now become strongly anti-European and vice versa.
It will be fascinating to see if MIliband and Balls are prepared to talk openly about tax increases or about cutting in areas ring-fenced by the Coalition. Both would provide political ammunition for their opponents but would at the same time offer much credibility to the financial plans.
That's not to say it wouldn't have consequences, both politically and economically, but it is an option.
The real root of the problem is the belief that the country is entitled to the standard of living it's currently enjoying, whether or not it's earning it. But deflating any bubble is difficult and this debt-fuelled one is no different in that respect.
Behind the bluster, the Tories and the Lib Dems are preparing for another coalition
This bit really stood out
They also acknowledge that the party’s leadership would rather continue to do business with the Tories than enter government with a Labour Party regarded as irredeemably tribal and impervious to compromise.
One MP tells me that the Lib Dems would be prepared to take the path rejected by the Liberal leader Jeremy Thorpe in 1974 and prop up a Conservative government with more votes than Miliband’s party but fewer seats. Cameron – who, as the incumbent, enjoys first preference on any future coalition – can give thanks for that.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/12/behind-bluster-tories-and-lib-dems-are-preparing-another-coalition
Well, perhaps the leadership would like to do that. But how would a post-election set of Lib Dem MPs look? Orange Book, or SDP?
Mark, surely the man who she has made allegations about is allowed to defend himself?
"Behind the bluster, the Tories and the Lib Dems are preparing for another coalition"
Clever bit of black propaganda by Labour I'd say.
Besides, how many of those will still be there after the election? From what I've read here Danny Alexander is, politically, a dead man walking.
http://www.westerndailypress.co.uk/looksabitukip-goes-Bath-Bus-Station-Twitter-Daily/story-25534734-detail/story.html
"At Bath bus station I was eavesdropping on a nearby group of schoolchildren, when I heard them refer to one of their teachers.
"They wouldn’t like to be alone with this particular man, they all agreed, because he “looks a bit Ukip”. Apparently, this means what a previous generation might have called “creepy”.""
I've long been of the view that unless the Party is near to its current strength, it should not go into Coalition again. The philosophical convergence of Orange-Book Liberalism and Liberal Conservatism as a response to the long Labour years has ended and the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have and are diverging.
Is there a matching convergence with Labour ? To a degree, perhaps, and it will be interesting to see what Labour has to offer on its spending plans
As to whether a much-reduced (say 25-30) LD Party can or should offer Confidence & Supply to a minority Government - my gut feeling is no but the practicalities of the need to provide some form of stable governance will doubtless push the survivors one way or another.
The conundrum is the arithmetic could be so different - the SNP could be the third party in terms of size, we don't know what the UKIP strength will be.
In the case of the LibDems this looks, from the outside at least, more problematic. Not for the first time, we might find that the leadership are willing, but the party as a whole is not:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26381917
If the Lib Dems have any kind of real choice between Labour and the Conservatives, my hunch is that they would choose supply and confidence with whoever could put together a minority government rather than make a choice that would enervate them still further. But that's close to a blind guess.
As predicted by several old sages on here, I understand.
The Lib Dems will ask for a break clause, to be potentially activated after 2/3 years.
Wonder how the SNP's 'we'd prop up Labour and vote on English laws' will plat out......
http://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/tory-mps-claim-veto-future-coalition/27209
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4293728.ece
Seems more than plausible given her twitter oddness and manic TV interview
The constitutional settlement has been cocked up enough by Labour's half-baked, narrow-minded, short-sighted idiocy without letting the Lib Dems have one-off 15 year terms, or some such delinquent foolishness.
Slap wrist JackW ....
For me, ridding us of the creepy criminal enterprise that was the News of the World remains the signal achievement.
There is a significant strand of Tory MPs who think Dave would have won a majority in a second election held in 2010.
It's more likely to do UKIP a favour than the Lib Dems anywho.
It's Christmas Eve and a couple are doing last minute shopping when her husband disappears. She phones him on his mobile "Where are you?"
In a calm voice he replies "Darling remember the jewellery shop we went in five years ago and you fell in love with that diamond necklace we couldn't afford and I said one day I would get it for you?"
Her eyes filled with tears "Yes I remember"
"Well I'm in the pub next door to that"
If so, then they should get rid of this entrenched privilege, and appoint someone who attended a comprehensive.
BBC Breaking News @BBCBreaking · 41s41 seconds ago
Former DJ Ray Teret jailed for 25 years at Manchester court for rapes and indecent assaults on girls as young as 12 http://bbc.in/1yBSa2N
Following the case of the Addenbrookes doctor, it seems the courts are toughening up their act.
4th from the top.
"That she'd been given preferential treatment because he had designs on her? "
Incredible. I bet that's never happened before in the whole history of politics. Ban 'em immediately.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2863696/Goggleboxgate-Ukip-candidate-s-fury-ousted-key-seat-star-hit-C4-show.html
Now if UKIP had managed to secure Gogglebox's Sandra...
The fact is that the Lib Dems, Labour and the Tories all try to dodge referenda on Europe as much as possible. They all try to promise them only for times when they won't be in power, and if they are in power, they dodge them.
Why sensible Kippers like Richard Tyndall and Sean Fear could spot that was a disaster waiting to happen, and UKIP high command couldn't is worrying if you're a purple.
As someone said last night, next week they'll be putting up Jeffrey Archer and Jonathan Aitken as candidates.
http://youtu.be/5rHJPLuG4OM
St Vince of the Cable represents an important strand in the party that Clegg can't ignore and probably wouldn't want to as Vince is the living embodiment of differentiation from the Tories that even in Coalition is important.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d2ce2e5a-7fb1-11e4-adff-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product&siteedition=uk#axzz3LaKMwygj
Still, no one has yet danced the dance of the seven veils to see my head put on a platter, so I should be grateful for small mercies.
"As someone said last night, next week they'll be putting up Jeffrey Archer and Jonathan Aitken as candidates."
Never! Even the Conservatives would never do that, surely?
Check it out.
Turns out Aitken has backed UKIP in the past.
I'm striving hard to be polite to Kippers, so I'll refrain from saying this is fruitcake-loon bonkers, but it is, shall we say, intellectually inconsistent.
For those looking for a credible "wisdom poll", this has to be it, where hard cash concentrates minds wonderfully.