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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP move up 3 to 19% in latest Lord Ashcroft phone poll

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,889
    edited December 2014
    Danny565 That is not true the numbers who want further spending cuts or more tax rises but some spending cuts too outweigh those who want tax cuts and a spending increase
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    Charles said:

    Indigo said:

    Theresa May still continues to impress those that matter


    Its all going very well at the Home Office
    Humble prediction - the child abuse enquiry will keep getting derailed for a number of reasons until long after the election. No-one suggested by the establishment will be allowed to take charge of it.
    The problem is the fact that Labour chose to politicise it.

    In this case the victim was laying into a member of the panel's son on twitter (this is all according to media reports). The panel member spoke to the individual and then followed up with an email basically telling him not to. The victim felt "threatened" by this & therefore the panel member should resign.

    Now, possibly it was foolish of the panel member to have a direct correspondence of this nature. But equally, we must be careful not to put the victims on a pedestal because of what they have suffered in the past.
    If I were doing a job and someone laid into my child in a public forum I'd be pretty annoyed, to put it mildly, too.

    Worth remembering that no crimes have yet been proven. They are alleged victims. Those who are being accused of crimes are, unfashionable as it may seem, innocent until proven guilty and this applies just as much to allegations of child abuse as it does to other crimes. All the more so given the horrific nature of the crimes.

    A mistake in my opinion to allow inquiries of this nature to be focused primarily on making the alleged victims feel better. If there are people still alive who are alleged to have committed crimes, they should be investigated and prosecuted. If the inquiry is into cover ups then that needs to look at who knew what and when and what, if anything they did, and who was told and what they did. How the victims felt about it all is largely irrelevant unless they did raise matters and were ignored.

    This may seem a tough, indeed chilly, approach but if anything worthwhile is to come out of these inquiries then we need to get to the facts unencumbered by sentimentality, which usually stands in the way of a proper, thorough and fair-minded investigation. The outrage and feeling (for I do not underestimate how horrible abuse is) comes later when we have established the facts, as much as we are able to.

    The longer this is dragged on, of course, the less chance of establishing anything.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    And of course to the South, we have Winston McKenzie who is challenging Croydon North for UKIP -- Winston was born in Jamaica and has been suggested by Lee Jasper recently to be the most influential Black politician in Britain.

    I'm not sure that those particular two names entirely inspire confidence!
    Agreed!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,709

    Malcolm: Yes 10% is probably an exaggeration but the point is valid. Especially as profit markups are apparently much higher for ready meals than separate ingredients.

    Re Immigrants. If you come from a country with no welfare you either learn the basics or starve when things go wrong. So you see to it that your children learn the basics. Over here such basics are seen as anti feminist and frowned upon. Its one big reason why immigrants do much better than the locals. They know how to live very cheaply and have a work ethic derived from a work or starve culture. Hence they work hard, spend little, put the difference into savings and make something of their lives. Sadly the British welfare classes have never been taught the self discipline to do that because in liberal Britain self discipline is a dirty word.

    You may think it odd that someone supporting UKIP says this. However the UKIP candidate for Tooting puts it much better than I can.

    "So, the UKIP contender for Chuka's seat in Streatham, Bruce Machan came to Britain from Zimbabwe about the same time I came over here from Poland, and I am standing for UKIP in Tooting, which is just to the West. Directly North of Chuka's constituency, in Vauxhall, UKIP is represented by Ace Nnorom who is originally from Cameroon.

    And on the East side of things Chuka is flanked by UKIP's Parliamentary Candidate for Dulwich and West Norwood Rathy Alagaratnam who is Tamil and came to Britain from Sri Lanka. And of course to the South, we have Winston McKenzie who is challenging Croydon North for UKIP -- Winston was born in Jamaica and has been suggested by Lee Jasper recently to be the most influential Black politician in Britain.


    In fact, it may be inferred that UKIP is likely fielding the most ethnically diverse suite of candidates out of all the parties in South London. That is because all of us feel strongly about being British, whilst UKIP provides us with a truly meritocratic political platform, something that cannot be said of the LibLabCon establishment parties catering almost exclusively for the London upper middle classes....

    Lastly, it is also worth pointing out there is only one party in the UK which has been continuously beating the drum for the Commonwealth and promoting Commonwealth free trade to ensure Britain does not miss out on unprecedented global growth. That party is UKIP.

    UKIP wants a global Great Britain, not the little England on the sidelines of the European Union which we have become under the last two governments. This UKIP affinity for the Commonwealth is further reflected in our above mentioned South London UKIP candidates, four of whom were born in Commonwealth countries.
    http://www.thecommentator.com/article/5374/tooting_view_we_re_back_to_racism_smears_against_ukip

    It is back to 50's; sounds like the League of Empire Loyalists!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,889
    New Bloomberg 2016 poll

    Candidate Hillary Republican Diff Other / None Favorable Unfavorable Diff
    Clinton 0 0 0 0 52 42 10
    Bush 43 37 6 17 32 37 -5
    Christie 42 36 6 18 36 35 1
    Paul 45 37 8 15 32 29 3
    Romney 45 39 6 14 43 44 -1
    Cruz 46 33 13 16 26 29 -3

    http://images.businessweek.com/cms/2014-12-06/14_15_22.pdf
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    edited December 2014
    AndyJS said:

    No wonder Osborne is urging garages to reflect the oil price drop on forecourts. That could make a big difference to potential UKIP supporters.

    MikeL said:

    The reason people are voting UKIP rather than Con is nothing to do with the language anyone (whether Con or UKIP) is using about anything.

    It is far, far simpler than that. Per Populus:

    Q: Would you say the long-term economic plan is working for you and your family?

    Net scores (ie Yes minus No)

    Con +40
    Lab -69
    LD -6
    UKIP -57

    Just look at that UKIP score - massively negative, almost as negative as Lab.

    As usual, hard core political enthusiasts on here are worried about language, what X is saying, what Y is reporting etc etc etc.

    Forget it - it's all irrelevant. If those UKIP supporters start feeling better off they'll go back to Con. If they don't, they won't. Dead simple.

    http://www.populus.co.uk/item/Economic-competence-may-not-translate-into-votes/

    Yes, indeed - Tesco Potters Bar has today cut by 2p to 118.9p unleaded, 122.9p diesel. Moving into the 110s is good psychologically.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited December 2014
    @Paul_Mid_Beds

    UKIP candidates from Zimbabwe, Poland, Cameroon, Jamaica? I fear some of our regular posters might have a nervous breakdown.

    Prepare to be attacked.
  • Roger said:


    Tory Baroness Jenkin says 'the problem is poor people don't know how to cook'

    I sense another UKIP defection

    Why. She's telling the truth.

    If you cook a meal from scratch it costs about a tenth of a ready meal. For two generations people haven't been taught basic home economics (ie how to cook nutritious food cheaply from scratch). You only have to look in a supermarket to see that it is the least educated, least well off who are piling their trolleys with expensive ready meals and think pizza or microwaved ready meals are a suitable main meal.

    Another example of how socialism has destroyed the working classes.

    I'm lucky, my wife was an immigrant from a country with no social security (another immigrant who will be voting UKIP BTW). Despite there being eight of us, our weekly supermarket shop rarely goes over £120 - including soap poweder etc. - because she cooks from scratch (other than Saturdays) and I grow some of it on an allotment. She once made a delicious soup out of brocolli stalks left over after the broccoli had been eaten.
    I'm massively in favour of people learning how to cook properly, but for the working poor they aren't only cash poor, they are also time poor.

    I remember when I was first living on my own with my daughter, before I took advantage of the then generosity of Tax Credits to reduce my working hours, that we would have to be out of the door by 8am each morning, not back in the house until 6.30pm, and then I'd have to feed her, do her reading homework with her, and get her to bed by 7.30pm.

    With the best will in the world there simply wasn't time to cook from scratch. She relied on a cooked lunch at school and subsisted on crackers and cheese in the evenings. And I was only dealing with the one child.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    edited December 2014
    I wondered what had prompted this latest bout of anti-Kipperdom on here. Then I realised ...

    "UKIP 19+3"

    If people kept their regular bouts of righteous indignation in check, Ukip might gradually decline. It's the over-the-top responses to relatively mild statements that make the Kipper-haters look foolish.

    If Farage were to say that today is Monday, the frothers would explode in anger and the twitterati blow a fuse. It's almost amusing.

    Under what circumstances does Nigel dislikes public breast-feeding is on a par with his favourite biscuit.
    "I like a Bourbon." Racist!
    "I'm partial to a custard cream" Racist!

    Look at all this from the viewpoint of someone who doesn't eat, drink and live Politics - What a bunch of self-obsessed twats.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,536

    Anyone heard what UKIP's General Secretary Roger Bird has done to be suspended?

    Impropriety covers a multitude...

    Perhaps he said nice things about immigrants ?
    Has he bought some Euros on holiday?

    Seriously, the cheerleaders won't accept this but UKIP's brand is getting damaged. It's not Ratners yet but it is the most disliked party I believe (apologies if wrong) and that ain't about to turn around, anything but.
    Yet, only 8% behind the Tories in England.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Interesting that the SNP are in fourth place in their number 2 target seat Argyll & Bute.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/805.stm
  • Ed Miliband: 16-year olds to vote in elections by 2016

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30384644

    Every little helps....
  • MikeL said:

    AndyJS said:

    No wonder Osborne is urging garages to reflect the oil price drop on forecourts. That could make a big difference to potential UKIP supporters.

    MikeL said:

    The reason people are voting UKIP rather than Con is nothing to do with the language anyone (whether Con or UKIP) is using about anything.

    It is far, far simpler than that. Per Populus:

    Q: Would you say the long-term economic plan is working for you and your family?

    Net scores (ie Yes minus No)

    Con +40
    Lab -69
    LD -6
    UKIP -57

    Just look at that UKIP score - massively negative, almost as negative as Lab.

    As usual, hard core political enthusiasts on here are worried about language, what X is saying, what Y is reporting etc etc etc.

    Forget it - it's all irrelevant. If those UKIP supporters start feeling better off they'll go back to Con. If they don't, they won't. Dead simple.

    http://www.populus.co.uk/item/Economic-competence-may-not-translate-into-votes/

    Yes, indeed - Tesco Potters Bar has today cut by 2p to 118.9p unleaded, 122.9p diesel. Moving into the 110s is good psychologically.
    Sainsburys 117.9p but cheapest here in Norwich is 115.7p



  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Sean_F said:

    Anyone heard what UKIP's General Secretary Roger Bird has done to be suspended?

    Impropriety covers a multitude...

    Perhaps he said nice things about immigrants ?
    Has he bought some Euros on holiday?

    Seriously, the cheerleaders won't accept this but UKIP's brand is getting damaged. It's not Ratners yet but it is the most disliked party I believe (apologies if wrong) and that ain't about to turn around, anything but.
    Yet, only 8% behind the Tories in England.

    If Ukip are happy appealing to 15-20% of the electorate that's fine. But it's making it harder for them to replace the Tories.
  • MikeL said:

    AndyJS said:

    No wonder Osborne is urging garages to reflect the oil price drop on forecourts. That could make a big difference to potential UKIP supporters.

    MikeL said:

    The reason people are voting UKIP rather than Con is nothing to do with the language anyone (whether Con or UKIP) is using about anything.

    It is far, far simpler than that. Per Populus:

    Q: Would you say the long-term economic plan is working for you and your family?

    Net scores (ie Yes minus No)

    Con +40
    Lab -69
    LD -6
    UKIP -57

    Just look at that UKIP score - massively negative, almost as negative as Lab.

    As usual, hard core political enthusiasts on here are worried about language, what X is saying, what Y is reporting etc etc etc.

    Forget it - it's all irrelevant. If those UKIP supporters start feeling better off they'll go back to Con. If they don't, they won't. Dead simple.

    http://www.populus.co.uk/item/Economic-competence-may-not-translate-into-votes/

    Yes, indeed - Tesco Potters Bar has today cut by 2p to 118.9p unleaded, 122.9p diesel. Moving into the 110s is good psychologically.
    Bugger. I shouldn't have filled up there yesterday.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Fake Britain is doing a bit on fake weddings. They just showed about a dozen or so examples of fake weddings. Amazingly, all of them were south Asian grooms with EU immigrant brides. Shocking, I know.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,709

    MikeL said:

    AndyJS said:

    No wonder Osborne is urging garages to reflect the oil price drop on forecourts. That could make a big difference to potential UKIP supporters.

    MikeL said:

    The reason people are voting UKIP rather than Con is nothing to do with the language anyone (whether Con or UKIP) is using about anything.

    It is far, far simpler than that. Per Populus:

    Q: Would you say the long-term economic plan is working for you and your family?

    Net scores (ie Yes minus No)

    Con +40
    Lab -69
    LD -6
    UKIP -57

    Just look at that UKIP score - massively negative, almost as negative as Lab.

    As usual, hard core political enthusiasts on here are worried about language, what X is saying, what Y is reporting etc etc etc.

    Forget it - it's all irrelevant. If those UKIP supporters start feeling better off they'll go back to Con. If they don't, they won't. Dead simple.

    http://www.populus.co.uk/item/Economic-competence-may-not-translate-into-votes/

    Yes, indeed - Tesco Potters Bar has today cut by 2p to 118.9p unleaded, 122.9p diesel. Moving into the 110s is good psychologically.
    Bugger. I shouldn't have filled up there yesterday.

    Asda are cheapest in the Colchester area
  • MikeL said:

    AndyJS said:

    No wonder Osborne is urging garages to reflect the oil price drop on forecourts. That could make a big difference to potential UKIP supporters.

    MikeL said:

    The reason people are voting UKIP rather than Con is nothing to do with the language anyone (whether Con or UKIP) is using about anything.

    It is far, far simpler than that. Per Populus:

    Q: Would you say the long-term economic plan is working for you and your family?

    Net scores (ie Yes minus No)

    Con +40
    Lab -69
    LD -6
    UKIP -57

    Just look at that UKIP score - massively negative, almost as negative as Lab.

    As usual, hard core political enthusiasts on here are worried about language, what X is saying, what Y is reporting etc etc etc.

    Forget it - it's all irrelevant. If those UKIP supporters start feeling better off they'll go back to Con. If they don't, they won't. Dead simple.

    http://www.populus.co.uk/item/Economic-competence-may-not-translate-into-votes/

    Yes, indeed - Tesco Potters Bar has today cut by 2p to 118.9p unleaded, 122.9p diesel. Moving into the 110s is good psychologically.
    Bugger. I shouldn't have filled up there yesterday.

    Asda are cheapest in the Colchester area
    Colchester is a bit of a hoof from Potters Bar just to fill up

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Ed Miliband: 16-year olds to vote in elections by 2016

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30384644

    Every little helps....

    Unbelievable attempt to gerrymander the electorate by getting kids to vote. God he's disgusting.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Socrates said:

    Fake Britain is doing a bit on fake weddings. They just showed about a dozen or so examples of fake weddings. Amazingly, all of them were south Asian grooms with EU immigrant brides. Shocking, I know.

    Shouldn't they be covered by the income rule for spouse visas?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Socrates
    Did your father say the same thing when 18 year old's got the vote?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    What's also amazing is that Ed Miliband will force through this gerrymandering of the electorate for English-only elections, presumably with Scots and Welsh MPs. The other home nations get to decide for themselves of course. Like his father, he hates the English and wants to force this on them.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    Fake Britain is doing a bit on fake weddings. They just showed about a dozen or so examples of fake weddings. Amazingly, all of them were south Asian grooms with EU immigrant brides. Shocking, I know.

    Shouldn't they be covered by the income rule for spouse visas?
    The income rule only applies to British citizens marrying non-EEA nationals. EU citizens don't need to abide by it because of EU treaties.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Smarmeron said:

    @Socrates
    Did your father say the same thing when 18 year old's got the vote?

    When 18 year olds got the vote, they were mostly out earning a living for themselves. Most 16 year olds are in secondary school. That's why Labour wants their vote: it's a bunch of people that receive their bribes (EMA etc) but hardly any of them pay significant amounts of tax.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Of course, the public widely opposes reducing the voting age, including a large majority of Labour voters:

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/08/22/public-against-lowering-voting-age/

    But of course, this is exactly the problem Ed Miliband is trying to solve. The British electorate don't agree with his political views, so he needs to change the electorate: import more people from developing nations, devolution for left-wing nations but not for right-leaning ones, votes for kids, more power to the European level etc.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034
    New thread, and I agree, Socrates. Just shows Labour's attitude to the constitution of our country.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    Malcolm: Yes 10% is probably an exaggeration but the point is valid. Especially as profit markups are apparently much higher for ready meals than separate ingredients.

    Re Immigrants. If you come from a country with no welfare you either learn the basics or starve when things go wrong. So you see to it that your children learn the basics. Over here such basics are seen as anti feminist and frowned upon. Its one big reason why immigrants do much better than the locals. They know how to live very cheaply and have a work ethic derived from a work or starve culture. Hence they work hard, spend little, put the difference into savings and make something of their lives. Sadly the British welfare classes have never been taught the self discipline to do that because in liberal Britain self discipline is a dirty word.

    You may think it odd that someone supporting UKIP says this. However the UKIP candidate for Tooting puts it much better than I can.

    "So, the UKIP contender for Chuka's seat in Streatham, Bruce Machan came to Britain from Zimbabwe about the same time I came over here from Poland, and I am standing for UKIP in Tooting, which is just to the West. Directly North of Chuka's constituency, in Vauxhall, UKIP is represented by Ace Nnorom who is originally from Cameroon.

    And on the East side of things Chuka is flanked by UKIP's Parliamentary Candidate for Dulwich and West Norwood Rathy Alagaratnam who is Tamil and came to Britain from Sri Lanka. And of course to the South, we have Winston McKenzie who is challenging Croydon North for UKIP -- Winston was born in Jamaica and has been suggested by Lee Jasper recently to be the most influential Black politician in Britain.


    In fact, it may be inferred that UKIP is likely fielding the most ethnically diverse suite of candidates out of all the parties in South London. That is because all of us feel strongly about being British, whilst UKIP provides us with a truly meritocratic political platform, something that cannot be said of the LibLabCon establishment parties catering almost exclusively for the London upper middle classes....



    http://www.thecommentator.com/article/5374/tooting_view_we_re_back_to_racism_smears_against_ukip

    Paul, I certainly agree with your points in general , being an older codger there were no such things as ready meals when we were young , everybody had to be able to cook and worst cases just used the chip pan every day.
    However big thing on it is, it takes a lot of time and work to prepare proper meals, so as well as ignorance there is a general laziness part to it, they want "everything on a plate" to use a pun. I do sympathise if both people in household working mind you, makes it harder.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    On topic:

    I think the interesting things about this are:

    1. The LibDems 8% includes a tactical voting benefit. They're only the first choice for 84% of their own vote.
    2. The Conservative vote is fairly evenly split between UKIP and the LibDems as second choice (albeit with the former in the lead by 7% or so).
    3. Around 15% of UKIP voters are clearly confused - with them putting Greens or LibDems in second place.
    4. The Conservatives get a remarkably small percentage of second place votes, which suggests their opportunity to move beyond - say - 35% in the polls is limited. Worse, given 2, swinging to the centre will lose them votes to UKIP, and swinging to UKIP will lose them votes to the LibDems.
    5. The LibDems still get a remarkable percentage of 'second choice' votes, suggesting that they might yet be able to motivate some tactical voting.
    6. Labour gets more than 1-in-5 second choice Conservative votes - I wonder if any of them will vote tactically against the LibDems?
    7. UKIP's small-ish share of second choice votes indicates that their (current) GE ceiling is probably around 30% - of course, that would almost certainly be enough to put them in first place
  • Roger said:


    Tory Baroness Jenkin says 'the problem is poor people don't know how to cook'

    I sense another UKIP defection

    Why. She's telling the truth.

    If you cook a meal from scratch it costs about a tenth of a ready meal. For two generations people haven't been taught basic home economics (ie how to cook nutritious food cheaply from scratch). You only have to look in a supermarket to see that it is the least educated, least well off who are piling their trolleys with expensive ready meals and think pizza or microwaved ready meals are a suitable main meal.

    Another example of how socialism has destroyed the working classes.

    I'm lucky, my wife was an immigrant from a country with no social security (another immigrant who will be voting UKIP BTW). Despite there being eight of us, our weekly supermarket shop rarely goes over £120 - including soap poweder etc. - because she cooks from scratch (other than Saturdays) and I grow some of it on an allotment. She once made a delicious soup out of brocolli stalks left over after the broccoli had been eaten.
    I'm massively in favour of people learning how to cook properly, but for the working poor they aren't only cash poor, they are also time poor.

    I remember when I was first living on my own with my daughter, before I took advantage of the then generosity of Tax Credits to reduce my working hours, that we would have to be out of the door by 8am each morning, not back in the house until 6.30pm, and then I'd have to feed her, do her reading homework with her, and get her to bed by 7.30pm.

    With the best will in the world there simply wasn't time to cook from scratch. She relied on a cooked lunch at school and subsisted on crackers and cheese in the evenings. And I was only dealing with the one child.
    Isn't that what school meals are for? If you have a cooked meal at lunchtime you don't actually need one in the evening.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Of course Ed won't be:

    - abolishing Child Benefit / Child Tax Credits for 16 and 17 year olds
    - allowing 16 and 17 year olds to go on juries
    - allowing 16 year olds to drive

    People are either adults or they aren't.

    Ed will make them adults just for the occasion that it suits him.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited December 2014
    @AndyJS @MikeSmithson My son was polled by Populus via his mobile last week, it was a very lengthy survey and sounds very much like it might have been a Lord Ashcroft marginals poll. He was asked both Westminster and Holyrood voting intentions, also constituency voting intention with all the candidates so far selected named etc. Also asked to rate a variety of politicians from both Westminster and Holyrood, and asked whether his voting intention could change between now and the GE due to specific policies etc.
    AndyJS said:

    Request to Lord Ashcroft: do some constituency polling in Scotland.

    AndyJS said:

    Request to Lord Ashcroft: do some constituency polling in Scotland.

    When I met him a couple of weeks back Lord A did assure me that these were on the way. I just don't know when.

  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Socrates said:



    At every turn we see UKIP apologists, candidates, would be candidates, officials, leaders, deputy leaders and every spokesman you care to mentions spouting endless claptrap which is aimed at so clearly whipping up anti foreigner immigrant coloured and religious prejudice all cloaked in such increasingly glaring racist cant that it is impossible to ignore...

    'ting tongs', voices on the tube, the overseas neighbours, breast feeding in the corner, traffic jams full of immigrants. And this is before gets all angry at stopping people profiteering from selling poppies.

    This is a perfect example of the faux outrage isam is referencing. Thanks kindly for demonstrating it for us.

    You are ostentatiously amusing at times.
This discussion has been closed.