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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP move up 3 to 19% in latest Lord Ashcroft phone poll
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP move up 3 to 19% in latest Lord Ashcroft phone poll
UKIP the main mover in this week's @LordAshcroft phone poll
LAB 31-1: CON 30=: LD 8+1: UKIP 19+3: GRN 5%-1 pic.twitter.com/bRz4vZA8YR
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We really need Lord Ashcroft to do some Scotland constituency polling though
I'm glad I said No2AV
A Labour party polling 31% and then getting 53% would be an obscenity.
UKIP the main mover in this week's @LordAshcroft phone poll
LAB 31-1: CON 30=: LD 8+1: UKIP 19+3: GRN 5%-1
"Fine, but almost totally irrelevant. National poll shares do NOT determine the election." - OGH, 7th Dec 2014
Isn't d'oeuvres a brilliant scrabble word? Must remember that. Always end up with a tray of vowels.
I see UKIP voters are most likely to stick with their party/least likely to change vote
More bad news I suppose #peakkipper?
A huge media puff for the Autumn statement, a concerted attack on Farage for Claridges-gate.
All that happens is UKIP get closer.
Though I have the lurgy, which might be worse.
I blame the immigrant hotel staff.
A final-round vote share of 53% to 47% would surely generate a substantial Labour majority, or is there something I'm missing?
Coverage has been negative since Thursday morning.
Once again, we see the huge difference in the duopoly numbers - 61 here, 69 on Populus but a very good poll for UKIP, a poor poll for Labour and dreadful for both the Coalition parties with no sign of an AS bounce of any sort.
Perhaps it is still about the pre-election skirmishes, perhaps people have already decided and nothing will change. It's a 4% swing from Conservative to Labour nationally but I suspect those numbers would see Labour very close to an overall majority.
Fascinating to see the AV numbers - I have to be honest, making a second or even third choice wouldn't be easy for me as I find all the other parties fairly repellent. I note the LDs are still top second and third preference which is interesting.
Among the others, 45% of UKIP voters choosing Conservative as their second choice and 39% of Conservative voters choosing UKIP as their second option tells us a lot.
In the wake of a day of leadership contest rumours, Theresa May extends her lead in our future party leader poll
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2014/12/in-the-wake-of-a-day-of-leadership-contest-rumours-theresa-may-extends-her-lead-in-our-party-members-poll.html
Even on these forums, the people who continuous slag UKIP off are all activists and committed voters for another party, of course they dont like UKIP, and of course they were never going to vote UKIP under any circumstance, so theirs is hardly a lost vote.
Meanwhile Farage is building a coalition of the disaffected tories and white van men who on the whole dont give two hoots about political correctness, and value being able to say what they think. They may or may not agree with Farage, but they like someone who appears to speak plainly, and tells people what he really thinks. The big difference here is these voters have been abandoned by the Conservatives and Labour, and their vote is available.
I'm a Tory, from the Hannanite wing of the party, so I have a lot of sympathy with UKIP, if we want those voters Farage is taking we need to a) stop insulting them b) stop being so lily livered and metropolitan and stop worrying about pissing off Guardian readers, they are not going to vote for us anyway c) get a grip and open up some blue water on free speech and lack of political correctness d) grow a bit of a spine with the EU we can worry about the referendum later, atleast sounding like it wasnt leading us around by the nose would be a good start, and did I mention e) stop insulting people we want to vote for us!
Which means the Tory party is short of opportunities and ideas before the campaign starts in March.
UKIP might enter into negotiations with Labour on the same basis, but I don't think Labour could offer anything to UKIP that they'd be interested in.
Yes but labour hasn't really benefited, according to this poll.
UKIP has.
All the Trumpton, stuff, all the traffic jam stuff, all the claridges stuff....FFS stop it. Nobody's laughing.
It should be noted that he drove on a Friday evening. Which, as we all know, is a time no-one else ever wants to travel.
Back in 2000, I drove from Cambridge to Bath to do a weekend walk. Looking at my notes, I expected the journey to take about three and a half hours; it was nearer six. The return journey a few days later was much quicker. Instead of blaming immigrants, I blamed it on being stupid enough to travel on a Friday evening rush hour.
It was heartening to see the audience refusing to buy her bullshit.
It's worse. The evidence of this week is they are actually counterproductive.
Then again, throughout history some in society have tried to blame other segments for all society's ills. UKIP is just the latest in a long and far from illustrious trend.
But this is just anecdata.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11274387/Child-sex-abuse-inquiry-Theresa-May-faces-make-or-break-meeting-with-victims-groups.html
and MPs in the Home Affairs Select Committee savage her proposed snooping powers, and give RIPA a good kicking as well
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11275993/Spying-powers-unacceptable-in-a-democracy-say-MPs.html
Its all going very well at the Home Office
LAB 31, CON 31, UKIP 23, LD 7, GRN 6
If anyone is interested in subsamples the midlands one (sample 107) is the most interesting: CON 32, LAB 28, UKIP 28
Citation, please.
Audreyanne may need a fresh blue rinse after that one...
http://www.cityam.com/1416819783/eu-referendum-owen-paterson-set-call-brexit-after-loss-rochester-and-strood-ukip
http://order-order.com/2014/12/08/miliband-insists-on-privacy-for-pre-xmas-turkey-eating-rehearsal/
It really is a lovely part of the world. Nearby Brassington's one of my favourite villages in the whole country.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9390782/the-truth-about-russia-today-is-that-it-is-putins-mouthpiece/
A number of those American and British twentysomething recruits have discovered that unpleasant reality in the course of their reporting. Abby Martin, the host of RT America, protested on air at the support that RT gave to Russia’s invasion of Crimea. Reporter Liz Wahl resigned shortly afterwards for the same reason. Staci Bivens, another RT reporter, said that she had been ordered by editors to write a story arguing the absurd case that Germany was a ‘failed state’. (She refused, which led to her leaving the network.) Overall, past and present employees of RT described a workplace in which reporters and commentators might write original stories only to find them rewritten by senior Russian editors — not to clarify or correct them, but to suit obvious Kremlin interests.
Indeed.... look at that group of candidates, disgracefully unrepresentative and intolerably white.... or maybe not.
''and made a comfortable life here dont welcome more people arriving and possibly causing a change in policy that would be to their detriment.''
Its Farage who wants the change in policy. Mr Indigo should tell his wife to remember to take here drawbridge around with her when she travels abroad.
It the all publicity is good publicity when it comes to Farage / UKIP. I bet Dave, Ed and Nick could capture some of that.
Although the Kipper standard response is to say the voters are poorly educated and ignore that polling.
"So, the UKIP contender for Chuka's seat in Streatham, Bruce Machan came to Britain from Zimbabwe about the same time I came over here from Poland, and I am standing for UKIP in Tooting, which is just to the West. Directly North of Chuka's constituency, in Vauxhall, UKIP is represented by Ace Nnorom who is originally from Cameroon.
And on the East side of things Chuka is flanked by UKIP's Parliamentary Candidate for Dulwich and West Norwood Rathy Alagaratnam who is Tamil and came to Britain from Sri Lanka. And of course to the South, we have Winston McKenzie who is challenging Croydon North for UKIP -- Winston was born in Jamaica and has been suggested by Lee Jasper recently to be the most influential Black politician in Britain."
http://www.thecommentator.com/article/5374/tooting_view_we_re_back_to_racism_smears_against_ukip
There are lots of reasons why the South East is over populated so that travel to London takes forever and a day. (Richest part of England, attracting workers from the UK as well as overseas, flight from central London to the suburbs due to exponential home price increases, forcing commuting)
(Population Density South East England 1170 per square mile. Only 4 micro-states of Europe - Malta, Vatican, Gibraltar, Monaco - have a higher density.)
It's an ill wind and all that....
They then fall over themselves to be as critical as possible, ignoring all facts in the hope that it will deflate the UKIP bubble, when in reality it just pumps it up even more.. people see through the faux outrage
Conservatives sounding like Guardianistas is the recipe for UKIP growth
It is the same as basically every interview with Farage, the media want to focus on immigration, racism etc. Bored....You either think he / his party are a certain way on that issue or not.
Ask him what is he going to do about the trains, the planes, the roads, the leccy, etc.
Incidentally have I missed the apologies from those who criticised her, following the recent ruling by the independent tribunal?
It's the M1 traffic thats made the difference. LOL
Even allowing for the Bolshevic Broadcasting Corporation's bias he's clearly done something wrong. The criticism started as a murmur but has snowballed into an avalanche.
Perhaps Ed really is a lucky leader.
"With most polls as tight as they are, the odds point towards no party having an overall majority, and many foresee the prospect of complex coalition negotiations involving three or even more parties. Since, during the 2011 referendum one of the principal arguments in favour of first-past-the-post was that it produced decisive results and stable governments, this is perhaps as close as we are going to get to evidence that an electoral system can have a sense of humour."
Note that his poll actually shows a 3-point Labour lead. The 1-point lead is after reallocation of don't knows/won't says in ICM fashion, reflecting the belief that hesitant people will go back to mother in the end. With this, the results are 32/29/20/7.
As a Tory it pisses me off, my own side seem determined to pump up UKIP and toss them endless softballs to hit into the stands. Faux outrage doesnt impress the public, we saw that when they savages Ms Eagle on QT a few weeks ago, all it does it make the Tories look like as bigger bunch of Guardian readers as the LDs and LABs.
There are no Guardian readers any more and it is a fraud to say that the tory party which is busy sacking hundreds of thousands of public sector workers is pandering the a lefywefty constituency. Your words are meaningless hyperbole when faced with the facts of what the govt are doing.
Farage? He cares about nothing anymore - if he ever did in the first place. He is a mountebank peddling anything that gets a laugh and a dissonant vote. He deserves criticism and I for one think we should be suspicious of anyone who says he is beyond it.
Someone who votes for UKIP is not a 'kipper' anymore that someone who votes labour is a socialist.
What I will say is that where people stoop to defend Farage for blaming road congestion on immigration they deserve all the abuse heaped on them. Especially when he could always blame it on the women and their children again.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2253232/Rise-number-families-cars-Working-women-stay-home-offspring-rise-vehicles-drive.html
But heaven forbid St Nigel should be subject to satire
http://newsthump.com/2014/12/08/m4-congestion-linked-to-racist-cnt-in-middle-lane/
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2013/18/contents/enacted
See also:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protection_of_Freedoms_Act_2012
MPs' Committees are much improved by the changes introduced in this partliament, and are doing a much better job and are more independent than used to be the case. Curiously, none of the government's critics ever seem to mention this. In this particular case the oversight seems to be working well: the Committee have reviewed the operation of the 2000 Act and have made recommendations. Good. That's how it's supposed to work.
All wrapped up in the inevitable hysteria. The extremists on the right wing should remember that it was Churchill who said that a lie gets up and travels twice round the world before the truth has time to get its trousers on.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/12/nick-clegg-and-nigel-farage-are-pursuing-the-same-electoral-strategy/
Before the last election the Lib Dems were getting between 24-28% in the polls. No body 'wanted' them they were just the only known protest vote available at the time.
Now Clegg and co have soiled themselves the disaffected have moved on. Even white van man with his house draped in flags and double digit IQ can spot a charlatan. It's just that UKIP are the only protest vote in town so they've nowhere else to go.
Even though I'm a million miles away from being a UKIP voter, I would like to think I've never insulted either the party or its supporters on here. That said, it's perfectly in order for UKIP policies to be scrutinised and criticised.
As for general criticism, UKIP supporters may feel they are getting the thin end of the wedge but compared to the vitriol heaped on Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband, Nigel Farage isn't doing too badly. There are a lot of Conservatives on this forum (certainly more than 30%) so there's plenty to hurl about and they now see UKIP as an existential threat to their Party.
Nick P's comment on the poll is illuminating and perhaps shows Labour's position to be stronger than the headline numbers. The England only numbers were a tie last week so the duopoly are down one each.
Surely promotion would be more appropriate
Impropriety covers a multitude...