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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft corrects his Doncaster N poll – EdM NOT in danger from UKIP in Doncaster North

How the correction and apology to Edm appears of @LordAshcroft site pic.twitter.com/vpduUXqvlE

Read the full story here

Scrapheap_as_was

Oops

Anorak

Heartbreaking news.

Morris_Dancer

Firemen to hold a 24 hour strike on 9 December:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30282017

isam

The fact that this error was noted by Mark Senior the instant the poll came out indicates that the site may not be read by as many influential people as some seem to think.... certainly not Lord Ashcroft, who didn't rumble it until Anthony Wells mentioned it today

Anorak

Morris_Dancer said:

Firemen to hold a 24 hour strike on 9 December:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30282017

Our own Devil's Night?

OblitusSumMe

If this episode teaches us one thing it is that Lord Ashcroft and his minions are too busy to read pb.com, otherwise the mistake would have been rectified earlier. A lesson for us all.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Isam, should it be referred to as Lord Ashcroft's Senior moment?

Anyway, we all make mistakes.

On the site being read: I think some only check the articles and miss out the compelling wisdom, witty erudition and nonsensical claptrap of which the comment threads are made.

TheScreamingEagles

So UKIP only damages the Tories.

Pulpstar

1-20 is now a 10% annualised investment return with Hills...

Added another pound to my GE winnings ^_~

isam

@SouthamObserver has his head in front on our Ed Miliband bet!

TheScreamingEagles

It cheers me up no end that I'm not the only person not to make typos and transposition errors.

Neil

Morris_Dancer said:

Firemen to hold a 24 hour strike on 9 December:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30282017

I must admit to being confused by this strike.

Apparently the FBU are striking because they think it is wrong to give firefighters a pension age of 60. But they agreed on a pension age of 60 for any fire fighter joining the service since 2006.

Why the sudden huge change of heart?

logical_song

isam said:

The fact that this error was noted by Mark Senior the instant the poll came out indicates that the site may not be read by as many influential people as some seem to think.... certainly not Lord Ashcroft, who didn't rumble it until Anthony Wells mentioned it today

Or that they have to scan through the dross to find the gold (no offence .

Anorak

Neil said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Firemen to hold a 24 hour strike on 9 December:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30282017

I must admit to being confused by this strike.

Apparently the FBU are striking because they think it is wrong to give firefighters a pension age of 60. But they agreed on a pension age of 60 for any fire fighter joining the service since 2006.

Why the sudden huge change of heart?

I'd guess the change is being imposed on current members (or rather, those that joined before 2006, which completely coincidentally would include nearly all union reps).

Pulpstar

Neil said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Firemen to hold a 24 hour strike on 9 December:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30282017

I must admit to being confused by this strike.

Apparently the FBU are striking because they think it is wrong to give firefighters a pension age of 60. But they agreed on a pension age of 60 for any fire fighter joining the service since 2006.

Why the sudden huge change of heart?

I think they're right, firefighters should be able to keep going till 65.

Pulpstar

65 for "physical" jobs
80 for us pen pushers.

Neil

Anorak said:

Neil said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Firemen to hold a 24 hour strike on 9 December:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30282017

I must admit to being confused by this strike.

Apparently the FBU are striking because they think it is wrong to give firefighters a pension age of 60. But they agreed on a pension age of 60 for any fire fighter joining the service since 2006.

Why the sudden huge change of heart?

I'd guess the change is being imposed on current members (or rather, those that joined before 2006, which completely coincidentally would include nearly all union reps).

It's very hard to sympathise with their plight in that case, isnt it? How do they convince the younger colleagues they previously sold down the river to come out with them?

isam

logical_song said:

isam said:

The fact that this error was noted by Mark Senior the instant the poll came out indicates that the site may not be read by as many influential people as some seem to think.... certainly not Lord Ashcroft, who didn't rumble it until Anthony Wells mentioned it today

Or that they have to scan through the dross to find the gold (no offence .

Don't be so hard on yourself x

TheScreamingEagles

Neil said:

Anorak said:

Neil said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Firemen to hold a 24 hour strike on 9 December:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30282017

I must admit to being confused by this strike.

Apparently the FBU are striking because they think it is wrong to give firefighters a pension age of 60. But they agreed on a pension age of 60 for any fire fighter joining the service since 2006.

Why the sudden huge change of heart?

I'd guess the change is being imposed on current members (or rather, those that joined before 2006, which completely coincidentally would include nearly all union reps).

It's very hard to sympathise with their plight in that case, isnt it? How do they convince the younger colleagues they previously sold down the river to come out with them?

Time to go all Jeremy Clarkson on these strikers

(FYI - Mr Firestopper, I'm joking)

OblitusSumMe

Neil said:

Anorak said:

Neil said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Firemen to hold a 24 hour strike on 9 December:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30282017

I must admit to being confused by this strike.

Apparently the FBU are striking because they think it is wrong to give firefighters a pension age of 60. But they agreed on a pension age of 60 for any fire fighter joining the service since 2006.

Why the sudden huge change of heart?

I'd guess the change is being imposed on current members (or rather, those that joined before 2006, which completely coincidentally would include nearly all union reps).

It's very hard to sympathise with their plight in that case, isnt it? How do they convince the younger colleagues they previously sold down the river to come out with them?

My Union did a similar thing. The leadership justified it on the basis that they represent their membership, rather than their future membership, but it simply divides the Union and makes them look like the defenders of entrenched privilege to younger members of the workforce. Silly twits.

Sunil_Prasannan

Afternoon!

Has ComRes been released yet?

Sunil_Prasannan

Doncaster North: This poll was commissioned by DUEMA!

TheScreamingEagles

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Afternoon!

Has ComRes been released yet?

10pm tonight,

Jeez you have no patience

OblitusSumMe

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Afternoon!

Has ComRes been released yet?

I expect they're phoning the local Liberal Democrat party to see if they've a spare set of eyes to check the figures before they release them to the wider world.

shadsy

UKIP person claims that bookmakers make Bradford South their most winnable seat in Yorkshire: Bookmaker disagrees.

http://politicalbookie.com/2014/12/01/no-bradford-south-is-not-ukips-most-winnable-seat-in-yorkshire/

isam

Researching IS&FB.. Nice number of votes for Labour in 2005 for people (like me) who like that kind of thing

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/islingtonsouthandfinsbury/

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Afternoon!

Has ComRes been released yet?

10pm tonight,

Jeez you have no patience

The fieldwork should have ended on Friday 28th judging from previous ComRes phone polls!

And you should know by now it's the Sunil on SUNDAY weekly ELBOW

Luckyguy1983

It's surely the rest of Labour he should be apologising to -for getting their hopes up.

bigjohnowls

On topic

LOL EICIMPDN

TheScreamingEagles

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Afternoon!

Has ComRes been released yet?

10pm tonight,

Jeez you have no patience

The fieldwork should have ended on Friday 28th judging from previous ComRes phone polls!

And you should know by now it's the Sunil on SUNDAY weekly ELBOW

Nope, their phone polls fieldwork end on Sundays.

Pulpstar

shadsy said:

UKIP person claims that bookmakers make Bradford South their most winnable seat in Yorkshire: Bookmaker disagrees.

http://politicalbookie.com/2014/12/01/no-bradford-south-is-not-ukips-most-winnable-seat-in-yorkshire/

You're quoting 8s for Rother Valley in that piece but only offer 5s on the website. I think Rother Valley is more winnable than Rotherham (8s is probably a fair price for Wentworth & Dearne) too !

viewcode

Anorak said:

Our own Devil's Night?

Not ambitious enough. I think we should take this opportunity to inaugurate "The Purge"...:-)

Sunil_Prasannan

Just to re-cap the present state of play with ELBOW pre-ComRes:

8 polls with field-work end-dates from 23rd to 29th November inclusive, total weighted sample, 10,588.

Lab 33.5% (+0.1)
Con 31.4% (-1.5)
UKIP 16.1% (+0.7)
LD 7.4% (+0.3)

Lab lead 2.1% (+1.7)

shadsy

Pulpstar said:

shadsy said:

UKIP person claims that bookmakers make Bradford South their most winnable seat in Yorkshire: Bookmaker disagrees.

http://politicalbookie.com/2014/12/01/no-bradford-south-is-not-ukips-most-winnable-seat-in-yorkshire/

You're quoting 8s for Rother Valley in that piece but only offer 5s on the website. I think Rother Valley is more winnable than Rotherham (8s is probably a fair price for Wentworth & Dearne) too !

Thanks - changed that now.

Socrates

TheScreamingEagles said:

It cheers me up no end that I'm not the only person not to make typos and transposition errors.

I once read that something like 40% of models in the business world had errors in them that changed the answer by more than 10%.

TheScreamingEagles

For fans of Theresa May, from the YouGov for the Sunday Times

33% of people think that Theresa May is doing well as Home Secretary, 41% badly (so her net score of minus 8 is slightly better than Cameron’s minus 13).

Asked about the balance between protecting human rights and privacy and introducing anti-terrorism measures 37% think May should go further with anti-terrorism powers, 18% that she has gone too far and damaged human rights and privacy, 19% that she has the balance about right.

Going through a list of the latest proposals there is support for all the new anti-terrorism measures, with most getting over 50% support. The few that do not (such as banning ransoms and extending TPIMs) are down to people saying don’t know rather than opposing the moves, there is still more support than opposition.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9083

Pulpstar

Ashcroft poll out soon isn't it ?

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Afternoon!

Has ComRes been released yet?

10pm tonight,

Jeez you have no patience

The fieldwork should have ended on Friday 28th judging from previous ComRes phone polls!

And you should know by now it's the Sunil on SUNDAY weekly ELBOW

Nope, their phone polls fieldwork end on Sundays.

It wasn't my fault, sir! PLEASE don't deactivate me. I told him not to go, but he's faulty, malfunctioning, babbling on about his mission!

OblitusSumMe

Pulpstar said:

Ashcroft poll out soon isn't it ?

4pm typically.

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

For fans of Theresa May, from the YouGov for the Sunday Times

33% of people think that Theresa May is doing well as Home Secretary, 41% badly (so her net score of minus 8 is slightly better than Cameron’s minus 13).

Asked about the balance between protecting human rights and privacy and introducing anti-terrorism measures 37% think May should go further with anti-terrorism powers, 18% that she has gone too far and damaged human rights and privacy, 19% that she has the balance about right.

Going through a list of the latest proposals there is support for all the new anti-terrorism measures, with most getting over 50% support. The few that do not (such as banning ransoms and extending TPIMs) are down to people saying don’t know rather than opposing the moves, there is still more support than opposition.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9083

All Mrs May has to do is hold out her term as Home Sec and see Boris off for the leadership.

DavidL

TheScreamingEagles said:

For fans of Theresa May, from the YouGov for the Sunday Times

33% of people think that Theresa May is doing well as Home Secretary, 41% badly (so her net score of minus 8 is slightly better than Cameron’s minus 13).

Asked about the balance between protecting human rights and privacy and introducing anti-terrorism measures 37% think May should go further with anti-terrorism powers, 18% that she has gone too far and damaged human rights and privacy, 19% that she has the balance about right.

Going through a list of the latest proposals there is support for all the new anti-terrorism measures, with most getting over 50% support. The few that do not (such as banning ransoms and extending TPIMs) are down to people saying don’t know rather than opposing the moves, there is still more support than opposition.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9083

She was stunningly dull on Desert Island discs and I would have thought you in particular would appreciate that her taste in music makes her unfit for any senior office. If she is trying to underplay the age thing she made several serious mistakes.

OblitusSumMe

Socrates said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It cheers me up no end that I'm not the only person not to make typos and transposition errors.

I once read that something like 40% of models in the business world had errors in them that changed the answer by more than 10%.

What sort of models are we talking here?

Economics sorts of models?

Or all sorts of models, including, say, Computational Fluid Dynamics models, as used by F1 teams, car manufacturers, etc?

Pulpstar

Btw noticed the front pages were bad for the Cons this morning (Sun/Mail)

TheScreamingEagles

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Afternoon!

Has ComRes been released yet?

10pm tonight,

Jeez you have no patience

The fieldwork should have ended on Friday 28th judging from previous ComRes phone polls!

And you should know by now it's the Sunil on SUNDAY weekly ELBOW

Nope, their phone polls fieldwork end on Sundays.

It wasn't my fault, sir! PLEASE don't deactivate me. I told him not to go, but he's faulty, malfunctioning, babbling on about his mission!

It's ok, I know, you JUST CAN'T GET ENOUGH of the polls

Pulpstar

To achieve a net of minus 8 as Home Secretary is pretty phenomenal in my book.

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For fans of Theresa May, from the YouGov for the Sunday Times

33% of people think that Theresa May is doing well as Home Secretary, 41% badly (so her net score of minus 8 is slightly better than Cameron’s minus 13).

Asked about the balance between protecting human rights and privacy and introducing anti-terrorism measures 37% think May should go further with anti-terrorism powers, 18% that she has gone too far and damaged human rights and privacy, 19% that she has the balance about right.

Going through a list of the latest proposals there is support for all the new anti-terrorism measures, with most getting over 50% support. The few that do not (such as banning ransoms and extending TPIMs) are down to people saying don’t know rather than opposing the moves, there is still more support than opposition.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9083

All Mrs May has to do is hold out her term as Home Sec and see Boris off for the leadership.

Don't misunderestimate Phil Hammond.

If we're out of power, and the Kippers are surging, then the party might well go for the cabinet minister who is a BOOer.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Me, worth mentioning F1 chaps can and do go down wrong routes with such things. An aerodynamic dead end in development is what cost Force India a better chance of beating McLaren in the Constructors', and Ferrari have cocked up aerodynamics for years.

Pulpstar

Probably a harder job than PM ratings-wise. It is normally a graveyard

DavidL

Pulpstar said:

To achieve a net of minus 8 as Home Secretary is pretty phenomenal in my book.

The speech to the Police Federation was truly special. The rest, not so much.

Socrates

OblitusSumMe said:

Socrates said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It cheers me up no end that I'm not the only person not to make typos and transposition errors.

I once read that something like 40% of models in the business world had errors in them that changed the answer by more than 10%.

What sort of models are we talking here?

Economics sorts of models?

Or all sorts of models, including, say, Computational Fluid Dynamics models, as used by F1 teams, car manufacturers, etc?

I can't remember. But I imagine those sort of models would be a tiny share of the total models used. Most are going to be market sizing, cash flow projections etc.

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For fans of Theresa May, from the YouGov for the Sunday Times

33% of people think that Theresa May is doing well as Home Secretary, 41% badly (so her net score of minus 8 is slightly better than Cameron’s minus 13).

Asked about the balance between protecting human rights and privacy and introducing anti-terrorism measures 37% think May should go further with anti-terrorism powers, 18% that she has gone too far and damaged human rights and privacy, 19% that she has the balance about right.

Going through a list of the latest proposals there is support for all the new anti-terrorism measures, with most getting over 50% support. The few that do not (such as banning ransoms and extending TPIMs) are down to people saying don’t know rather than opposing the moves, there is still more support than opposition.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9083

All Mrs May has to do is hold out her term as Home Sec and see Boris off for the leadership.

Don't misunderestimate Phil Hammond.

If we're out of power, and the Kippers are surging, then the party might well go for the cabinet minister who is a BOOer.

I'm certainly not misunderestimating Mr Hammond, I think he has a real chance and is my biggest "green" currently.

TheScreamingEagles

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For fans of Theresa May, from the YouGov for the Sunday Times

33% of people think that Theresa May is doing well as Home Secretary, 41% badly (so her net score of minus 8 is slightly better than Cameron’s minus 13).

Asked about the balance between protecting human rights and privacy and introducing anti-terrorism measures 37% think May should go further with anti-terrorism powers, 18% that she has gone too far and damaged human rights and privacy, 19% that she has the balance about right.

Going through a list of the latest proposals there is support for all the new anti-terrorism measures, with most getting over 50% support. The few that do not (such as banning ransoms and extending TPIMs) are down to people saying don’t know rather than opposing the moves, there is still more support than opposition.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9083

She was stunningly dull on Desert Island discs and I would have thought you in particular would appreciate that her taste in music makes her unfit for any senior office. If she is trying to underplay the age thing she made several serious mistakes.

I think she'll be fine, the amusing thing given the hyperbole on here, that's Mrs May is dangerous illiberal to our freedoms and human rights, the public want her to go further.

Casino_Royale

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For fans of Theresa May, from the YouGov for the Sunday Times

33% of people think that Theresa May is doing well as Home Secretary, 41% badly (so her net score of minus 8 is slightly better than Cameron’s minus 13).

Asked about the balance between protecting human rights and privacy and introducing anti-terrorism measures 37% think May should go further with anti-terrorism powers, 18% that she has gone too far and damaged human rights and privacy, 19% that she has the balance about right.

Going through a list of the latest proposals there is support for all the new anti-terrorism measures, with most getting over 50% support. The few that do not (such as banning ransoms and extending TPIMs) are down to people saying don’t know rather than opposing the moves, there is still more support than opposition.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9083

All Mrs May has to do is hold out her term as Home Sec and see Boris off for the leadership.

Theresa May Will Never Be Conservative Party Leader.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Afternoon!

Has ComRes been released yet?

10pm tonight,

Jeez you have no patience

The fieldwork should have ended on Friday 28th judging from previous ComRes phone polls!

And you should know by now it's the Sunil on SUNDAY weekly ELBOW

Nope, their phone polls fieldwork end on Sundays.

It wasn't my fault, sir! PLEASE don't deactivate me. I told him not to go, but he's faulty, malfunctioning, babbling on about his mission!

It's ok, I know, you JUST CAN'T GET ENOUGH of the polls

I think Sunil should Leave In Silence.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, the public want all sorts of things. Like hanging, leaving the EU and so forth. The job of politicians is to attend to the public's interest, not the public's whims.

Sunil_Prasannan

OK, so in Lord Ashcroft mode, I confess I was wrong about the ComRes...

**FACE-PALM**

It would appear that the above is the data for this week's ELBOW, as ComRes field-work ended yesterday and will have to be included in next week's ELBOW

So, we have 8 polls with field-work end-dates from 23rd to 29th November inclusive, total weighted sample, 10,588.

Lab 33.5% (+0.1)
Con 31.4% (-1.5)
UKIP 16.1% (+0.7)
LD 7.4% (+0.3)

Lab lead 2.1% (+1.7)

Comparison with the first ever ELBOW back on 17th August:

Lab -2.7%
Con -1.8%
UKIP +3.0%
LD -1.4%

Lab lead -0.9% (ie. was 3.0%, now 2.1%)

Take-home:

* Whither Crossover?
* Cons take a significant it, there lowest ELBOW since 19th October
* Lab hardly shift at all
* UKIP take around half of the Con decrease to stop their three-week decline
* LDs recover slightly from their worst-ever ELBOW last week

TheScreamingEagles

DavidL said:

Pulpstar said:

To achieve a net of minus 8 as Home Secretary is pretty phenomenal in my book.

The speech to the Police Federation was truly special. The rest, not so much.

I think her biggest achievement is that the Home Office is no longer a recurring front page news.

IIRC, she's outlasted her last four predecessors combined.

Masterly competence and understatement is the way to go.

Sunil_Prasannan

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Afternoon!

Has ComRes been released yet?

10pm tonight,

Jeez you have no patience

The fieldwork should have ended on Friday 28th judging from previous ComRes phone polls!

And you should know by now it's the Sunil on SUNDAY weekly ELBOW

Nope, their phone polls fieldwork end on Sundays.

It wasn't my fault, sir! PLEASE don't deactivate me. I told him not to go, but he's faulty, malfunctioning, babbling on about his mission!

It's ok, I know, you JUST CAN'T GET ENOUGH of the polls

I think Sunil should Leave In Silence.

If only you were Walking In My Shoes...

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Afternoon!

Has ComRes been released yet?

10pm tonight,

Jeez you have no patience

The fieldwork should have ended on Friday 28th judging from previous ComRes phone polls!

And you should know by now it's the Sunil on SUNDAY weekly ELBOW

Nope, their phone polls fieldwork end on Sundays.

It wasn't my fault, sir! PLEASE don't deactivate me. I told him not to go, but he's faulty, malfunctioning, babbling on about his mission!

It's ok, I know, you JUST CAN'T GET ENOUGH of the polls

I think Sunil should Leave In Silence.

We should ENJOY THE SILENCE

[Deleted User]

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, the public want all sorts of things. Like hanging, leaving the EU and so forth. The job of politicians is to attend to the public's interest, not the public's whims.

Indeed. Everyone knows it should be trebuchet flinging and leaving the EU...

taffys

Theresa May Will Never Be Conservative Party Leader.

Agree.

CarlottaVance

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For fans of Theresa May, from the YouGov for the Sunday Times

33% of people think that Theresa May is doing well as Home Secretary, 41% badly (so her net score of minus 8 is slightly better than Cameron’s minus 13).

Asked about the balance between protecting human rights and privacy and introducing anti-terrorism measures 37% think May should go further with anti-terrorism powers, 18% that she has gone too far and damaged human rights and privacy, 19% that she has the balance about right.

Going through a list of the latest proposals there is support for all the new anti-terrorism measures, with most getting over 50% support. The few that do not (such as banning ransoms and extending TPIMs) are down to people saying don’t know rather than opposing the moves, there is still more support than opposition.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9083

She was stunningly dull on Desert Island discs and I would have thought you in particular would appreciate that her taste in music makes her unfit for any senior office. If she is trying to underplay the age thing she made several serious mistakes.

I thought it was exactly the sort of thing to appeal to the Tory core vote.....

Why would she be trying to 'underplay the age thing'? I'm not sure our current crop of forty-something leaders have been unqualified successes!

(Full disclosure - I knew Theresa at University & liked her - no 'side' like some of the other pols I knew there). She is very WYSIWYG

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Patrick, if we deported illegal immigrants with trebuchets, there would be fewer repeat offenders.

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For fans of Theresa May, from the YouGov for the Sunday Times

33% of people think that Theresa May is doing well as Home Secretary, 41% badly (so her net score of minus 8 is slightly better than Cameron’s minus 13).

Asked about the balance between protecting human rights and privacy and introducing anti-terrorism measures 37% think May should go further with anti-terrorism powers, 18% that she has gone too far and damaged human rights and privacy, 19% that she has the balance about right.

Going through a list of the latest proposals there is support for all the new anti-terrorism measures, with most getting over 50% support. The few that do not (such as banning ransoms and extending TPIMs) are down to people saying don’t know rather than opposing the moves, there is still more support than opposition.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9083

All Mrs May has to do is hold out her term as Home Sec and see Boris off for the leadership.

Don't misunderestimate Phil Hammond.

If we're out of power, and the Kippers are surging, then the party might well go for the cabinet minister who is a BOOer.

I'm certainly not misunderestimating Mr Hammond, I think he has a real chance and is my biggest "green" currently.

If the next Tory leader is from May, Javid, Hammond or Hunt, I'll be laughing.

I'm sort of greenish on Osborne and Boris, I'm planning to lay those two a lot more in the next year.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, can't see it being Javid or Hunt. Maybe Hammond. I'd be surprised if it were May.

Of course, future Prime Minister Justine Greening is the likeliest successor to Cameron.

Peter_the_Punter

shadsy said:

Pulpstar said:

shadsy said:

UKIP person claims that bookmakers make Bradford South their most winnable seat in Yorkshire: Bookmaker disagrees.

http://politicalbookie.com/2014/12/01/no-bradford-south-is-not-ukips-most-winnable-seat-in-yorkshire/

You're quoting 8s for Rother Valley in that piece but only offer 5s on the website. I think Rother Valley is more winnable than Rotherham (8s is probably a fair price for Wentworth & Dearne) too !

Thanks - changed that now.

That's not good enough, Shadsy!

We want a full Lord A type apology.

MikeSmithson

I'll be updating the header just after 4pm when this week's Ashcroft National poll due out. Last week LAB 5% ahead.

Pulpstar

Lab -2, UKIP +1, Con +1 I'll go for.

OblitusSumMe

Socrates said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Socrates said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It cheers me up no end that I'm not the only person not to make typos and transposition errors.

I once read that something like 40% of models in the business world had errors in them that changed the answer by more than 10%.

What sort of models are we talking here?

Economics sorts of models?

Or all sorts of models, including, say, Computational Fluid Dynamics models, as used by F1 teams, car manufacturers, etc?

I can't remember. But I imagine those sort of models would be a tiny share of the total models used. Most are going to be market sizing, cash flow projections etc.

Oh, so these would probably be models that you could fit into an Excel spreadsheet.

I'd really like Google to provide a Google Drive implementation of Python so that you could write and share code and access data held in your Google Drive. If people wrote their models in Python, it would be much easier to see when they made mistakes, then when they use Excel spreadsheets.

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

Lab -2, UKIP +1, Con +1 I'll go for.

End of the Rochester bounce I'm hoping for, so Con up and UKIP down.

TheScreamingEagles

Today's Lord Ashcroft National Poll

Con 30 (+3) Lab 32 (nc) LD 7 (nc) UKIP 16 (-2) Greens 6 (nc)

Morris_Dancer

F1: Sky piece on why Mercedes will dominate in 2015 as well:
http://www1.skysports.com/f1/report/22058/9580314/why-catching-mercedes-will-be-a-tall-order-in-2015-for-f1s-distant-chasing-pack

It's with that sort of thinking in mind that I put a little on Rosberg at 4.7, with plans to hedge around 3. I think it'll be a two horse race again, and Rosberg is, once more, underestimated by the market.

Neil

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For fans of Theresa May, from the YouGov for the Sunday Times

33% of people think that Theresa May is doing well as Home Secretary, 41% badly (so her net score of minus 8 is slightly better than Cameron’s minus 13).

Asked about the balance between protecting human rights and privacy and introducing anti-terrorism measures 37% think May should go further with anti-terrorism powers, 18% that she has gone too far and damaged human rights and privacy, 19% that she has the balance about right.

Going through a list of the latest proposals there is support for all the new anti-terrorism measures, with most getting over 50% support. The few that do not (such as banning ransoms and extending TPIMs) are down to people saying don’t know rather than opposing the moves, there is still more support than opposition.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9083

She was stunningly dull on Desert Island discs and I would have thought you in particular would appreciate that her taste in music makes her unfit for any senior office. If she is trying to underplay the age thing she made several serious mistakes.

Serious mistakes? On Desert Island discs?

Sunil_Prasannan

ELBOW in graphical form:

Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 · 59s59 seconds ago
Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week). Update 30th Nov: Lab 33.5%, Con 31.4, UKIP 16.1, LD 7.4.

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/539448424614338560?lang=en-gb

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Today's Lord Ashcroft National Poll

Con 30 (+3) Lab 32 (nc) LD 7 (nc) UKIP 16 (-2) Greens 6 (nc)

OUTLIER

OblitusSumMe

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Patrick, if we deported illegal immigrants with trebuchets, there would be fewer repeat offenders.

Even neglecting air resistance - perhaps you could load the chaps into aerodynamic capsules? - what velocity would your trebuchet need to impart to reach Calais from atop the white cliffs of Dover?

Pulpstar

2. The next general election will take place on May 7th 2015. When the general election comes, will
you definitely vote [for the party you named] or might you end up voting differently?

Will definitely vote that way

LD Voters 28%

I make that a 2% Lib Dem core vote.

TheScreamingEagles

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Today's Lord Ashcroft National Poll

Con 30 (+3) Lab 32 (nc) LD 7 (nc) UKIP 16 (-2) Greens 6 (nc)

OUTLIER

End of the Rochester bounce.

So long as no more TPD defect

Richard_Nabavi

Socrates said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It cheers me up no end that I'm not the only person not to make typos and transposition errors.

I once read that something like 40% of models in the business world had errors in them that changed the answer by more than 10%.

That's because they are written in Excel, the most debugger-hostile programming language known to man.

MarqueeMark

Peter_the_Punter said:

shadsy said:

Pulpstar said:

shadsy said:

UKIP person claims that bookmakers make Bradford South their most winnable seat in Yorkshire: Bookmaker disagrees.

http://politicalbookie.com/2014/12/01/no-bradford-south-is-not-ukips-most-winnable-seat-in-yorkshire/

You're quoting 8s for Rother Valley in that piece but only offer 5s on the website. I think Rother Valley is more winnable than Rotherham (8s is probably a fair price for Wentworth & Dearne) too !

Thanks - changed that now.

That's not good enough, Shadsy!

We want a full Lord A type apology.

Alternatively, wait until say early March, when His Lordship's original numbers may be closer to reality!

RobD

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Today's Lord Ashcroft National Poll

Con 30 (+3) Lab 32 (nc) LD 7 (nc) UKIP 16 (-2) Greens 6 (nc)

OUTLIER

The 27% from Lord A last week probably explains the drop in the Con for your latest appendage.

Artist

Not much support from Conservative voters on their possible deal with the DUP.

Happy see DUP in a coalition 26%
Unhappy 63%

Pulpstar

Derived core votes: Labour 20%, Tories 18%, Lib Dem 2%, UKIP 10%.

TheScreamingEagles

Artist said:

Not much support from Conservative voters on their possible deal with the DUP.

Happy see DUP in a coalition 26%
Unhappy 63%

I want to meet the 11% of Tories happy be in coalition with Sinn Fein!

FrankBooth

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For fans of Theresa May, from the YouGov for the Sunday Times

33% of people think that Theresa May is doing well as Home Secretary, 41% badly (so her net score of minus 8 is slightly better than Cameron’s minus 13).

Asked about the balance between protecting human rights and privacy and introducing anti-terrorism measures 37% think May should go further with anti-terrorism powers, 18% that she has gone too far and damaged human rights and privacy, 19% that she has the balance about right.

Going through a list of the latest proposals there is support for all the new anti-terrorism measures, with most getting over 50% support. The few that do not (such as banning ransoms and extending TPIMs) are down to people saying don’t know rather than opposing the moves, there is still more support than opposition.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9083

She was stunningly dull on Desert Island discs and I would have thought you in particular would appreciate that her taste in music makes her unfit for any senior office. If she is trying to underplay the age thing she made several serious mistakes.

The choices don't seem that bad. A bit old-fashioned perhaps and rather dull. Not sure age is an issue for her to be honest.

OblitusSumMe

LordAshcroft said:

Indeed more Conservative voters said they would be happy to see the Greens (42%) or the Lib Dems (52%) in a coalition than Nigel Farage’s party (39%). Link

Quite the contrast to the sentiment often expressed on here.

MarqueeMark

OblitusSumMe said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Patrick, if we deported illegal immigrants with trebuchets, there would be fewer repeat offenders.

Even neglecting air resistance - perhaps you could load the chaps into aerodynamic capsules? - what velocity would your trebuchet need to impart to reach Calais from atop the white cliffs of Dover?

Reaching French territorial waters will be enough.

Although them dropping out the sky onto the Mayor of Calais would be a quality bit of ballistics.....

Pulpstar

More UKIPpers happy to see a Green coalition than a DUP - LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL.

Socrates

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

Pulpstar said:

To achieve a net of minus 8 as Home Secretary is pretty phenomenal in my book.

The speech to the Police Federation was truly special. The rest, not so much.

I think her biggest achievement is that the Home Office is no longer a recurring front page news.

IIRC, she's outlasted her last four predecessors combined.

Masterly competence and understatement is the way to go.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11195771/Imams-sham-marriage-trial-collapses-after-Home-Office-blunder.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2200597/Passengers-face-long-queues-Heathrow-Airport-Games-passport-control-hit-staffing-crisis-again.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/expatnews/10887252/Passport-delays-prompting-drastic-measures.html
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/435932/Backlog-of-applications-exposes-asylum-shambles
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11073679/Officials-have-lost-track-of-50000-illegal-immigrants.html
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/feb/10/student-visa-tests-suspended-fraud
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/10524709/Home-Office-officials-incompetence-led-to-failed-deportation-of-Somali-criminal.html

There's none so blind as those who will not see. This took me about a minute to put together. I'm sure there are more examples of Home Office incompetence under May's leadership. She's by far the worst cabinet minister in terms of performance.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Artist said:

Not much support from Conservative voters on their possible deal with the DUP.

Happy see DUP in a coalition 26%
Unhappy 63%

I want to meet the 11% of Tories happy be in coalition with Sinn Fein!

They haven't gone away you know!

Danny565

Pulpstar said:

2. The next general election will take place on May 7th 2015. When the general election comes, will
you definitely vote [for the party you named] or might you end up voting differently?

Will definitely vote that way

LD Voters 28%

I make that a 2% Lib Dem core vote.

Snicker.

Would even Orkney & Shetland survive?

Richard_Nabavi

Socrates said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

Pulpstar said:

To achieve a net of minus 8 as Home Secretary is pretty phenomenal in my book.

The speech to the Police Federation was truly special. The rest, not so much.

I think her biggest achievement is that the Home Office is no longer a recurring front page news.

IIRC, she's outlasted her last four predecessors combined.

Masterly competence and understatement is the way to go.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11195771/Imams-sham-marriage-trial-collapses-after-Home-Office-blunder.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2200597/Passengers-face-long-queues-Heathrow-Airport-Games-passport-control-hit-staffing-crisis-again.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/expatnews/10887252/Passport-delays-prompting-drastic-measures.html
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/435932/Backlog-of-applications-exposes-asylum-shambles
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11073679/Officials-have-lost-track-of-50000-illegal-immigrants.html
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/feb/10/student-visa-tests-suspended-fraud
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/10524709/Home-Office-officials-incompetence-led-to-failed-deportation-of-Somali-criminal.html

There's none so blind as those who will not see.

How does that list compare with her predecessors?

Rather well, I would imagine.

logical_song

A majority of Tories (58%) said they would be unhappy to see UKIP in government, including 39% saying they would be very unhappy.
Indeed more Conservative voters said they would be happy to see the Greens (42%) or the Lib Dems (52%) in a coalition than Nigel Farage’s party. Overall 36% said they would be very unhappy to see UKIP in government – the highest score on that measure for any party other than Sinn Fein (48%).
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/12/ashcroft-national-poll-con-30-lab-32-lib-dem-7-ukip-16-green-6/

TheScreamingEagles

Socrates said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

Pulpstar said:

To achieve a net of minus 8 as Home Secretary is pretty phenomenal in my book.

The speech to the Police Federation was truly special. The rest, not so much.

I think her biggest achievement is that the Home Office is no longer a recurring front page news.

IIRC, she's outlasted her last four predecessors combined.

Masterly competence and understatement is the way to go.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11195771/Imams-sham-marriage-trial-collapses-after-Home-Office-blunder.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2200597/Passengers-face-long-queues-Heathrow-Airport-Games-passport-control-hit-staffing-crisis-again.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/expatnews/10887252/Passport-delays-prompting-drastic-measures.html
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/435932/Backlog-of-applications-exposes-asylum-shambles
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11073679/Officials-have-lost-track-of-50000-illegal-immigrants.html
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/feb/10/student-visa-tests-suspended-fraud
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/10524709/Home-Office-officials-incompetence-led-to-failed-deportation-of-Somali-criminal.html

There's none so blind as those who will not see. This took me about a minute to put together. I'm sure there are more examples of Home Office incompetence under May's leadership.

So why do you think despite all of that, she's managed to outlast her last four predecessors

Did you see the polling showing your other criticisms of Mrs May aren't shared by the British public,

Sunil_Prasannan

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Today's Lord Ashcroft National Poll

Con 30 (+3) Lab 32 (nc) LD 7 (nc) UKIP 16 (-2) Greens 6 (nc)

OUTLIER

The 27% from Lord A last week probably explains the drop in the Con for your latest appendage.

It would have contributed, but of the 10,588 sample, Lord A's poll provided only 568!

568/10,588 = 5.4%!!!

excluding Ashcroft, Tories go from 31.4 to 31.6%...

Pulpstar

Sinn Fein actually help ALL the other parties get that bit closer to having a de-facto majority. They are the most stabilising force in the whole of the UK parliament.

Socrates

TheScreamingEagles said:

Socrates said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

Pulpstar said:

To achieve a net of minus 8 as Home Secretary is pretty phenomenal in my book.

The speech to the Police Federation was truly special. The rest, not so much.

I think her biggest achievement is that the Home Office is no longer a recurring front page news.

IIRC, she's outlasted her last four predecessors combined.

Masterly competence and understatement is the way to go.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11195771/Imams-sham-marriage-trial-collapses-after-Home-Office-blunder.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2200597/Passengers-face-long-queues-Heathrow-Airport-Games-passport-control-hit-staffing-crisis-again.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/expatnews/10887252/Passport-delays-prompting-drastic-measures.html
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/435932/Backlog-of-applications-exposes-asylum-shambles
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11073679/Officials-have-lost-track-of-50000-illegal-immigrants.html
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/feb/10/student-visa-tests-suspended-fraud
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/10524709/Home-Office-officials-incompetence-led-to-failed-deportation-of-Somali-criminal.html

There's none so blind as those who will not see. This took me about a minute to put together. I'm sure there are more examples of Home Office incompetence under May's leadership.

So why do you think despite all of that, she's managed to outlast her last four predecessors

Did you see the polling showing your other criticisms of Mrs May aren't shared by the British public,

Because Cameron is a poor judge of performance and approves of her authoritarianism. As can be seen by my links, pretty much every area of her supervision has seen serious cock-ups, from passport renewal to border control, from tracking down illegal immigrants to having a rigorous visa system. Oh, and on top of this, she's missed her net immigration target by 160%, worse than when she took office! Anyone that thinks this is a good performance is someone that's oblivious to the facts.

Pulpstar

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Today's Lord Ashcroft National Poll

Con 30 (+3) Lab 32 (nc) LD 7 (nc) UKIP 16 (-2) Greens 6 (nc)

OUTLIER

The 27% from Lord A last week probably explains the drop in the Con for your latest appendage.

It would have contributed, but of the 10,588 sample, Lord A's poll provided only 568!

568/10,588 = 5.4%!!!

Is there not a danger of your methodology being a tad bias toward Yougov ?

MikeSmithson

I've updated the header to include the England only figures from Ashcroft.

MarqueeMark

TheScreamingEagles said:

Artist said:

Not much support from Conservative voters on their possible deal with the DUP.

Happy see DUP in a coalition 26%
Unhappy 63%

I want to meet the 11% of Tories happy be in coalition with Sinn Fein!

Probably on the basis that they don't take their seats, so less of a pain in the arse as Coalition partners than the LibDems....