There's none so blind as those who will not see. This took me about a minute to put together. I'm sure there are more examples of Home Office incompetence under May's leadership.
So why do you think despite all of that, she's managed to outlast her last four predecessors
Did you see the polling showing your other criticisms of Mrs May aren't shared by the British public,
You speak about her tenure as if it is a direct reflection of the results she's acheived. Obviously, as in any job, it actually has to do with a mulitiplicity of other factors ahead of success or failure in the given task. She has lasted this long because Cameron hasn't sacked her. Why that might be is debatable, but being a member of his trusted inner circle would have to be near the top.
There's none so blind as those who will not see. This took me about a minute to put together. I'm sure there are more examples of Home Office incompetence under May's leadership.
So why do you think despite all of that, she's managed to outlast her last four predecessors
Did you see the polling showing your other criticisms of Mrs May aren't shared by the British public,
Because Cameron is a poor judge of performance and approves of her authoritarianism.
1) Ultimately if she was so poor, she would have gone, just like her predecessors
2) The polling shows most voters want her to be even more authoritarian than she already is.
There's none so blind as those who will not see. This took me about a minute to put together. I'm sure there are more examples of Home Office incompetence under May's leadership.
So why do you think despite all of that, she's managed to outlast her last four predecessors
Did you see the polling showing your other criticisms of Mrs May aren't shared by the British public,
Because Cameron is a poor judge of performance and approves of her authoritarianism.
I didn't think Mr Blair was much cop in office but he had huge approval numbers, May's numbers as Home Secretary are pretty damn strong considering how the job is normally a complete graveyard for political ambition.
THAT is the noteworthy point from a political betting perspective.
Mr. Me, that sounds like a job for a low trajectory strike from the space cannon.
You might as well simply send them straight to JackW's pie factory and be done with it - making sure that the resulting pies are packed in boxes marked clearly "For Export", of course.
A majority of Tories (58%) said they would be unhappy to see UKIP in government, including 39% saying they would be very unhappy. Indeed more Conservative voters said they would be happy to see the Greens (42%) or the Lib Dems (52%) in a coalition than Nigel Farage’s party. Overall 36% said they would be very unhappy to see UKIP in government – the highest score on that measure for any party other than Sinn Fein (48%). http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/12/ashcroft-national-poll-con-30-lab-32-lib-dem-7-ukip-16-green-6/
41% men, and 38% of women would be 'happy' to see UKIP in coalition, which suggests UKIP's apparent lack of support with women voters in VI polls is fixable.
The first few posts on the original thread on this poll were various PBers pointing out that it wasn't credible that the Tory vote was up by 2 points at the same time as UKIP being on 28%.
There's none so blind as those who will not see. This took me about a minute to put together. I'm sure there are more examples of Home Office incompetence under May's leadership.
So why do you think despite all of that, she's managed to outlast her last four predecessors
Did you see the polling showing your other criticisms of Mrs May aren't shared by the British public,
You speak about her tenure as if it is a direct reflection of the results she's acheived. Obviously, as in any job, it actually has to do with a mulitiplicity of other factors ahead of success or failure in the given task. She has lasted this long because Cameron hasn't sacked her. Why that might be is debatable, but being a member of his trusted inner circle would have to be near the top.
You really should stop posting on a political website if you think Theresa May is part of Cameron's trusted inner circle.
Indeed more Conservative voters said they would be happy to see the Greens (42%) or the Lib Dems (52%) in a coalition than Nigel Farage’s party (39%). Link
Quite the contrast to the sentiment often expressed on here.
Quite a few of the Tories on here loathe both the SNP and UKIP.......
There's none so blind as those who will not see. This took me about a minute to put together. I'm sure there are more examples of Home Office incompetence under May's leadership.
So why do you think despite all of that, she's managed to outlast her last four predecessors
Did you see the polling showing your other criticisms of Mrs May aren't shared by the British public,
Because Cameron is a poor judge of performance and approves of her authoritarianism.
1) Ultimately if she was so poor, she would have gone, just like her predecessors
2) The polling shows most voters want her to be even more authoritarian than she already is.
1. No, that doesn't follow. If someone stays in office despite clearly overseeing a complete shambles of a department that isn't evidence that they're good. It's evidence that their boss is f###ing clueless too.
2. After decades of a crappy education system overseen by both Labour and the Tories, most of the public have very little understanding of British history and British liberties. That's another damning indictment of both parties.
The 27% from Lord A last week probably explains the drop in the Con for your latest appendage.
It would have contributed, but of the 10,588 sample, Lord A's poll provided only 568!
568/10,588 = 5.4%!!!
Is there not a danger of your methodology being a tad bias toward Yougov ?
That might be true, and Lord Sunil, proprietor (and headline-finder pursuivant) of the Sunil on Sunday, has agonised about this ever since mid-August, but at least it provides an alternative metric of "averaging" out the week's polls. Like Lord A says, this is a snapshot, not a prediction for GE 2015!!
One thing we do check is whether the headline published percentages match each poll's data tables. Whilst most of the time they do in fact, there have been several occurrences where this hasn't happened.
People like Lord Ashcroft ought to pay more attention to the nerds and anoraks frequenting sites like PB, UKPR and VoteUK discussion forum. They noticed a mistake immediately.
I've updated the header to include the England only figures from Ashcroft.
Unfortunately they're the wrong figures. You appear to have used the GB figures in error.
Is this the fashionable way to show thanks to His Lordship for his opinion polls, for which we are all so very much greatful? (Do words count as much as numbers in this regard do you think?)
A dog's breakfast of a poll. And, frankly, the thread doesn't look much better (Mike, you've used the GB figures for England). What an almighty cock up.
I've said before I don't trust his polling and this confirms his joke status. This England-only poll is also replete with sampling issues.
It would be more accurate to pin a tail on a donkey's backside.
Next from the TSE News Network, Robert Mugabe best president in the word... appalling record in office, but he's stayed in his post for ages!
You really have lost it today haven't you.
The fact despite your rantings, the public don't agree with you, means they aren't properly educated, but when the polls agree with your views, then you never make that criticism.
(I could also point out your whining, when I said, Kippers were thick and uneducated)
Take a chill pill and go see the film Paddington, best British film ever.
Mr. Eagles, lack of knowledge is where we all begin. The tide only recedes when we start to learn. If it weren't for a chance comment by another person, in another place, I perhaps would not have read any classical history at all.
And then I might have come here, and considered your deluded and indefensible misunderstandings of history to be somehow learned and correct.
2. The next general election will take place on May 7th 2015. When the general election comes, will you definitely vote [for the party you named] or might you end up voting differently?
Will definitely vote that way
LD Voters 28%
I make that a 2% Lib Dem core vote.
This poll already has the LDs reduced to a third of their 2010 support. You'd think these would be die-hard LDs.
Mr. Eagles, lack of knowledge is where we all begin. The tide only recedes when we start to learn. If it weren't for a chance comment by another person, in another place, I perhaps would not have read any classical history at all.
And then I might have come here, and considered your deluded and indefensible misunderstandings of history to be somehow learned and correct.
Hmm, I do get a thrill from correcting other people, from thinking Hannibal was any good or Theresa May being responsible for prison (escapes)
A dog's breakfast of a poll. And, frankly, the thread doesn't look much better (Mike, you've used the GB figures for England). What an almighty cock up.
I've said before I don't trust his polling and this confirms his joke status. This England-only poll is also replete with sampling issues.
It would be more accurate to pin a tail on a donkey's backside.
Crap. Utter crap.
His Lordship's polls do seem to swing more wildly than the Krankies.....
Next from the TSE News Network, Robert Mugabe best president in the word... appalling record in office, but he's stayed in his post for ages!
You really have lost it today haven't you.
The fact despite your rantings, the public don't agree with you, means they aren't properly educated, but when the polls agree with your views, then you never make that criticism.
(I could also point out your whining, when I said, Kippers were thick and uneducated)
Take a chill pill and go see the film Paddington, best British film ever.
It might make you calmer.
The public are bright enough to realise that Theresa May is doing a bad job. The net disapproval says it all.
Perhaps you could point out an area of her supervision that has done well without cock-ups? The fact the only thing you can point to is tenure says it all!
The question is can Cameron convince enough grumpy old buggers they will get Ed Miliband if they vote UKIP and do a Tonybee trademarked "peg their nose" and vote Tory in the end.
If he can't, Miliband could still just get over the line into power despite incredibly low % voting for him, although I think no overall majority is the most likely outcome.
Mr. Eagles, many men get a thrill from wrongs. For some, it's BDSM, for you, it's a horrendous and baffling inability to comprehend the most basic facts of classical history.
There's none so blind as those who will not see. This took me about a minute to put together. I'm sure there are more examples of Home Office incompetence under May's leadership.
So why do you think despite all of that, she's managed to outlast her last four predecessors
Did you see the polling showing your other criticisms of Mrs May aren't shared by the British public,
Because Cameron is a poor judge of performance and approves of her authoritarianism.
1) Ultimately if she was so poor, she would have gone, just like her predecessors
2) The polling shows most voters want her to be even more authoritarian than she already is.
1. No, that doesn't follow. If someone stays in office despite clearly overseeing a complete shambles of a department that isn't evidence that they're good. It's evidence that their boss is f###ing clueless too.
Not expressing a view on Theresa May's merits or otherwise, but you seem to be suggesting that Blair/Brown sacked Home Secretaries because they thought they were inept, rather than because it was the only way to satisfy a media with the taste of ministerial blood.
So the answer to the question "Why has Theresa May survived in office?" has to include some reference to the media. Have they given her a bye because she's a Tory Home Secretary? Why else would they have not hounded her out of office in the manner that they have done to previous incumbents of the office, if we accept your proposition that she was as inept as her forebears?
Following on from what Peter Kellner has said and now OGH, can we expect a lot of focus in the election on England specific polling or at least sub samples? A significant focus on England in the media debate would be quite significant and help to reinforce the differences with Scotland.
2. The next general election will take place on May 7th 2015. When the general election comes, will you definitely vote [for the party you named] or might you end up voting differently?
Will definitely vote that way
LD Voters 28%
I make that a 2% Lib Dem core vote.
This poll already has the LDs reduced to a third of their 2010 support. You'd think these would be die-hard LDs.
I know, that is the astonishing thing - the Lib Dem core is truly tiny yet their potential "in your seat" vote is huge in some seats.
A dog's breakfast of a poll. And, frankly, the thread doesn't look much better (Mike, you've used the GB figures for England). What an almighty cock up.
I've said before I don't trust his polling and this confirms his joke status. This England-only poll is also replete with sampling issues.
It would be more accurate to pin a tail on a donkey's backside.
Crap. Utter crap.
His Lordship's polls do seem to swing more wildly than the Krankies.....
So its now the wrong type of spending and wrong type of recovery and wrong type of growth ....from the party that spun flat lined growth after triple dip after 5 million unemployed after no wage growth after .......
The endless desperate spinning from the socialists is straight from 1984 speak re-writing the line "We have always been at war with x".
Just chuck enough smelly stuff at the wall and hope some will stick?
Mr. Eagles, many men get a thrill from wrongs. For some, it's BDSM, for you, it's a horrendous and baffling inability to comprehend the most basic facts of classical history.
It is hard to say which is more depraved.
There's nothing wrong with handing your money to a woman who will abuse you and sexually frustrate you.
A dog's breakfast of a poll. And, frankly, the thread doesn't look much better (Mike, you've used the GB figures for England). What an almighty cock up.
I've said before I don't trust his polling and this confirms his joke status. This England-only poll is also replete with sampling issues.
It would be more accurate to pin a tail on a donkey's backside.
Crap. Utter crap.
His Lordship's polls do seem to swing more wildly than the Krankies.....
Ok. My mind is boggling. WTF?
The Krankies: 'We used to be swingers'
Children’s entertainers The Krankies have disclosed that they used to be swingers who enjoyed a lifestyle wilder than rock stars.
So the answer to the question "Why has Theresa May survived in office?" has to include some reference to the media. Have they given her a bye because she's a Tory Home Secretary? Why else would they have not hounded her out of office in the manner that they have done to previous incumbents of the office, if we accept your proposition that she was as inept as her forebears?
Jack Straw - promoted to Foreign Secretary David Blunkett - resigned not due to performance, but due to personal reasons John Reid - resigned because he didn't want to work under Gordon Brown Jacqui Smith - gave no clear reason, but likely resigned after the expenses scandal with her husband Alan Johnson - Labour lost the election
So the only one that could be argued was "hounded out of office" was Charles Clark, and all that shows is he had more decency than Theresa May, seeing how many shambles she's presided over.
A dog's breakfast of a poll. And, frankly, the thread doesn't look much better (Mike, you've used the GB figures for England). What an almighty cock up.
I've said before I don't trust his polling and this confirms his joke status. This England-only poll is also replete with sampling issues.
It would be more accurate to pin a tail on a donkey's backside.
Crap. Utter crap.
His Lordship's polls do seem to swing more wildly than the Krankies.....
Ok. My mind is boggling. WTF?
The Krankies: 'We used to be swingers'
Children’s entertainers The Krankies have disclosed that they used to be swingers who enjoyed a lifestyle wilder than rock stars.
A dog's breakfast of a poll. And, frankly, the thread doesn't look much better (Mike, you've used the GB figures for England). What an almighty cock up.
I've said before I don't trust his polling and this confirms his joke status. This England-only poll is also replete with sampling issues.
It would be more accurate to pin a tail on a donkey's backside.
Crap. Utter crap.
His Lordship's polls do seem to swing more wildly than the Krankies.....
Ok. My mind is boggling. WTF?
The Krankies: 'We used to be swingers'
Children’s entertainers The Krankies have disclosed that they used to be swingers who enjoyed a lifestyle wilder than rock stars.
So the answer to the question "Why has Theresa May survived in office?" has to include some reference to the media. Have they given her a bye because she's a Tory Home Secretary? Why else would they have not hounded her out of office in the manner that they have done to previous incumbents of the office, if we accept your proposition that she was as inept as her forebears?
Jack Straw - promoted to Foreign Secretary David Blunkett - resigned not due to performance, but due to personal reasons John Reid - resigned because he didn't want to work under Gordon Brown Jacqui Smith - gave no clear reason, but likely resigned after the expenses scandal with her husband Alan Johnson - Labour lost the election
So the only one that could be argued was "hounded out of office" was Charles Clark, and all that shows is he had more decency than Theresa May, seeing how many shambles she's presided over.
Don't you ever get tired of being wrong?
Charles Clarke says he was "angry and frustrated" after being sacked as home secretary, adding that he felt Tony Blair had taken "a wrong decision".
So its now the wrong type of spending and wrong type of recovery and wrong type of growth ....from the party that spun flat lined growth after triple dip after 5 million unemployed after no wage growth after .......
The endless desperate spinning from the socialists is straight from 1984 speak re-writing the line "We have always been at war with x".
Just chuck enough smelly stuff at the wall and hope some will stick?
No need to spin
There is an election in May and the Electorate will pass judgement.
I think Ed is crap will be PM
You dont.
I think 5 years of Dave and George has been 5 years of failure
You disagree.
Either way the electorate decide.
All i can say George has failed to meet his own targets on the defecit Dave has failed to meet his own target on immigration and lied to the Electorate about the NHS reorganisation.
As I say maybe I am biased maybe you are maybe we both are so lets see what the Electorates judgement is.
A dog's breakfast of a poll. And, frankly, the thread doesn't look much better (Mike, you've used the GB figures for England). What an almighty cock up.
I've said before I don't trust his polling and this confirms his joke status. This England-only poll is also replete with sampling issues.
It would be more accurate to pin a tail on a donkey's backside.
Crap. Utter crap.
His Lordship's polls do seem to swing more wildly than the Krankies.....
Mr. Eagles, many men get a thrill from wrongs. For some, it's BDSM, for you, it's a horrendous and baffling inability to comprehend the most basic facts of classical history.
It is hard to say which is more depraved.
There's nothing wrong with handing your money to a woman who will abuse you and sexually frustrate you.
It's called marriage.
I thought Tories are supposed to believe in marriage
A dog's breakfast of a poll. And, frankly, the thread doesn't look much better (Mike, you've used the GB figures for England). What an almighty cock up.
I've said before I don't trust his polling and this confirms his joke status. This England-only poll is also replete with sampling issues.
It would be more accurate to pin a tail on a donkey's backside.
Crap. Utter crap.
His Lordship's polls do seem to swing more wildly than the Krankies.....
Ok. My mind is boggling. WTF?
The Krankies: 'We used to be swingers'
Children’s entertainers The Krankies have disclosed that they used to be swingers who enjoyed a lifestyle wilder than rock stars.
So its now the wrong type of spending and wrong type of recovery and wrong type of growth ....from the party that spun flat lined growth after triple dip after 5 million unemployed after no wage growth after .......
The endless desperate spinning from the socialists is straight from 1984 speak re-writing the line "We have always been at war with x".
Just chuck enough smelly stuff at the wall and hope some will stick?
No need to spin There is an election in May and the Electorate will pass judgement. I think Ed is crap will be PM You dont. I think 5 years of Dave and George has been 5 years of failure You disagree. Either way the electorate decide. All i can say George has failed to meet his own targets on the defecit Dave has failed to meet his own target on immigration and lied to the Electorate about the NHS reorganisation. As I say maybe I am biased maybe you are maybe we both are so lets see what the Electorates judgement is.
A dog's breakfast of a poll. And, frankly, the thread doesn't look much better (Mike, you've used the GB figures for England). What an almighty cock up.
I've said before I don't trust his polling and this confirms his joke status. This England-only poll is also replete with sampling issues.
It would be more accurate to pin a tail on a donkey's backside.
Crap. Utter crap.
His Lordship's polls do seem to swing more wildly than the Krankies.....
Ok. My mind is boggling. WTF?
Sorry Anorak, I thought this was universally known.
So its now the wrong type of spending and wrong type of recovery and wrong type of growth ....from the party that spun flat lined growth after triple dip after 5 million unemployed after no wage growth after .......
The endless desperate spinning from the socialists is straight from 1984 speak re-writing the line "We have always been at war with x".
Just chuck enough smelly stuff at the wall and hope some will stick?
No need to spin
There is an election in May and the Electorate will pass judgement.
I think Ed is crap will be PM
You dont.
I think 5 years of Dave and George has been 5 years of failure
You disagree.
Either way the electorate decide.
All i can say George has failed to meet his own targets on the defecit Dave has failed to meet his own target on immigration and lied to the Electorate about the NHS reorganisation.
As I say maybe I am biased maybe you are maybe we both are so lets see what the Electorates judgement is.
In case you missed it, Peter Kellner has done an article just for you
Uniform swing is now worse than useless – it is positively misleading
So its now the wrong type of spending and wrong type of recovery and wrong type of growth ....from the party that spun flat lined growth after triple dip after 5 million unemployed after no wage growth after .......
The endless desperate spinning from the socialists is straight from 1984 speak re-writing the line "We have always been at war with x".
Just chuck enough smelly stuff at the wall and hope some will stick?
No need to spin
There is an election in May and the Electorate will pass judgement.
I think Ed is crap will be PM
You dont.
I think 5 years of Dave and George has been 5 years of failure
You disagree.
Either way the electorate decide.
All i can say George has failed to meet his own targets on the defecit Dave has failed to meet his own target on immigration and lied to the Electorate about the NHS reorganisation.
As I say maybe I am biased maybe you are maybe we both are so lets see what the Electorates judgement is.
In case you missed it, Peter Kellner has done an article just for you
Uniform swing is now worse than useless – it is positively misleading
So its now the wrong type of spending and wrong type of recovery and wrong type of growth ....from the party that spun flat lined growth after triple dip after 5 million unemployed after no wage growth after .......
The endless desperate spinning from the socialists is straight from 1984 speak re-writing the line "We have always been at war with x".
Just chuck enough smelly stuff at the wall and hope some will stick?
No need to spin
There is an election in May and the Electorate will pass judgement.
I think Ed is crap will be PM
You dont.
I think 5 years of Dave and George has been 5 years of failure
You disagree.
Either way the electorate decide.
All i can say George has failed to meet his own targets on the defecit Dave has failed to meet his own target on immigration and lied to the Electorate about the NHS reorganisation.
As I say maybe I am biased maybe you are maybe we both are so lets see what the Electorates judgement is.
In case you missed it, Peter Kellner has done an article just for you
Uniform swing is now worse than useless – it is positively misleading
Following on from what Peter Kellner has said and now OGH, can we expect a lot of focus in the election on England specific polling or at least sub samples? A significant focus on England in the media debate would be quite significant and help to reinforce the differences with Scotland.
I think now that England and Wales ought to be polled separately from Scotland.
So its now the wrong type of spending and wrong type of recovery and wrong type of growth ....from the party that spun flat lined growth after triple dip after 5 million unemployed after no wage growth after .......
The endless desperate spinning from the socialists is straight from 1984 speak re-writing the line "We have always been at war with x".
Just chuck enough smelly stuff at the wall and hope some will stick?
No need to spin
There is an election in May and the Electorate will pass judgement.
I think Ed is crap will be PM
You dont.
I think 5 years of Dave and George has been 5 years of failure
You disagree.
Either way the electorate decide.
All i can say George has failed to meet his own targets on the defecit Dave has failed to meet his own target on immigration and lied to the Electorate about the NHS reorganisation.
As I say maybe I am biased maybe you are maybe we both are so lets see what the Electorates judgement is.
In case you missed it, Peter Kellner has done an article just for you
Uniform swing is now worse than useless – it is positively misleading
A dog's breakfast of a poll. And, frankly, the thread doesn't look much better (Mike, you've used the GB figures for England). What an almighty cock up.
I've said before I don't trust his polling and this confirms his joke status. This England-only poll is also replete with sampling issues.
It would be more accurate to pin a tail on a donkey's backside.
Crap. Utter crap.
His Lordship's polls do seem to swing more wildly than the Krankies.....
Ok. My mind is boggling. WTF?
Sorry Anorak, I thought this was universally known.
Sounds like she's as out of her depth in musical taste as she is in running government departments.
The aria from Die Zaberflotte is about vengeance, and planning assassination of a leader. Must be a hidden message in that choice. It is great if sung well, but not all singers reach those top notes.
So its now the wrong type of spending and wrong type of recovery and wrong type of growth ....from the party that spun flat lined growth after triple dip after 5 million unemployed after no wage growth after .......
The endless desperate spinning from the socialists is straight from 1984 speak re-writing the line "We have always been at war with x".
Just chuck enough smelly stuff at the wall and hope some will stick?
No need to spin
There is an election in May and the Electorate will pass judgement.
I think Ed is crap will be PM
You dont.
I think 5 years of Dave and George has been 5 years of failure
You disagree.
Either way the electorate decide.
All i can say George has failed to meet his own targets on the defecit Dave has failed to meet his own target on immigration and lied to the Electorate about the NHS reorganisation.
As I say maybe I am biased maybe you are maybe we both are so lets see what the Electorates judgement is.
In case you missed it, Peter Kellner has done an article just for you
Uniform swing is now worse than useless – it is positively misleading
If Kellner is right it completely destroys the basic premise underpinning everything on here for the last 5 years - ie that if votes are close, Lab will be miles ahead on seats.
Of course Kellner may prove to be wrong - but who knows. I think it would be very foolish to be confident either way - ie confident that he is right or confident that he is wrong.
Is Nigel Farage really Johnny Foreigner? I think we should be told....
Farage is the man who thought it a neat idea to help people to profiteer from selling the Tower poppies. So much so he complained when ebay banned selling them. Is this really his christmas card? It must be a fake. Frankly I cannot believe it (which is odd since Victor Meldrwe is his target voter).
Is Nigel Farage really Johnny Foreigner? I think we should be told....
Farage is the man who thought it a neat idea to help people to profiteer from selling the Tower poppies. So much so he complained when ebay banned selling them. Is this really his christmas card? It must be a fake. Frankly I cannot believe it (which is odd since Victor Meldrwe is his target voter).
So the answer to the question "Why has Theresa May survived in office?" has to include some reference to the media. Have they given her a bye because she's a Tory Home Secretary? Why else would they have not hounded her out of office in the manner that they have done to previous incumbents of the office, if we accept your proposition that she was as inept as her forebears?
Jack Straw - promoted to Foreign Secretary David Blunkett - resigned not due to performance, but due to personal reasons John Reid - resigned because he didn't want to work under Gordon Brown Jacqui Smith - gave no clear reason, but likely resigned after the expenses scandal with her husband Alan Johnson - Labour lost the election
So the only one that could be argued was "hounded out of office" was Charles Clark, and all that shows is he had more decency than Theresa May, seeing how many shambles she's presided over.
Fair enough. So that shows that the idea that being Home Secretary was a poisoned chalice is based on a misconception, and May's longevity in office is not really remarkable at all.
So the answer to the question "Why has Theresa May survived in office?" has to include some reference to the media. Have they given her a bye because she's a Tory Home Secretary? Why else would they have not hounded her out of office in the manner that they have done to previous incumbents of the office, if we accept your proposition that she was as inept as her forebears?
Jack Straw - promoted to Foreign Secretary David Blunkett - resigned not due to performance, but due to personal reasons John Reid - resigned because he didn't want to work under Gordon Brown Jacqui Smith - gave no clear reason, but likely resigned after the expenses scandal with her husband Alan Johnson - Labour lost the election
So the only one that could be argued was "hounded out of office" was Charles Clark, and all that shows is he had more decency than Theresa May, seeing how many shambles she's presided over.
Fair enough. So that shows that the idea that being Home Secretary was a poisoned chalice is based on a misconception, and May's longevity in office is not really remarkable at all.
Home Secretary is also a very different job now. Back in the day the Home Secretary might get hounded on TV about the fallout from the latest prison escape. That isnt something that most people would question the Home Secretary about these days.
So the answer to the question "Why has Theresa May survived in office?" has to include some reference to the media. Have they given her a bye because she's a Tory Home Secretary? Why else would they have not hounded her out of office in the manner that they have done to previous incumbents of the office, if we accept your proposition that she was as inept as her forebears?
Jack Straw - promoted to Foreign Secretary David Blunkett - resigned not due to performance, but due to personal reasons John Reid - resigned because he didn't want to work under Gordon Brown Jacqui Smith - gave no clear reason, but likely resigned after the expenses scandal with her husband Alan Johnson - Labour lost the election
So the only one that could be argued was "hounded out of office" was Charles Clark, and all that shows is he had more decency than Theresa May, seeing how many shambles she's presided over.
Fair enough. So that shows that the idea that being Home Secretary was a poisoned chalice is based on a misconception, and May's longevity in office is not really remarkable at all.
Home Secretary is also a very different job now. Back in the day the Home Secretary might get hounded on TV about the fallout from the latest prison escape. That isnt something that most people would question the Home Secretary about these days.
Prison escapes seem a bit dated - only seem to happen in transit these days - when was the last time someone dug a proper Shawshank tunnel ?
I think Lord A is overstating Con 1st time incumbency though. I really don't think it'll help all that much.
On the face of it, it does look helpful. Both Stockton South and Watford would fall on a swing of 4.9%, but Ashcroft has the Tory incumbent narrowly ahead,
There's none so blind as those who will not see. This took me about a minute to put together. I'm sure there are more examples of Home Office incompetence under May's leadership.
So why do you think despite all of that, she's managed to outlast her last four predecessors
Did you see the polling showing your other criticisms of Mrs May aren't shared by the British public,
You speak about her tenure as if it is a direct reflection of the results she's acheived. Obviously, as in any job, it actually has to do with a mulitiplicity of other factors ahead of success or failure in the given task. She has lasted this long because Cameron hasn't sacked her. Why that might be is debatable, but being a member of his trusted inner circle would have to be near the top.
You really should stop posting on a political website if you think Theresa May is part of Cameron's trusted inner circle.
I'm AGOG to hear your scintillating evidence to the contrary.
So the answer to the question "Why has Theresa May survived in office?" has to include some reference to the media. Have they given her a bye because she's a Tory Home Secretary? Why else would they have not hounded her out of office in the manner that they have done to previous incumbents of the office, if we accept your proposition that she was as inept as her forebears?
Jack Straw - promoted to Foreign Secretary David Blunkett - resigned not due to performance, but due to personal reasons John Reid - resigned because he didn't want to work under Gordon Brown Jacqui Smith - gave no clear reason, but likely resigned after the expenses scandal with her husband Alan Johnson - Labour lost the election
So the only one that could be argued was "hounded out of office" was Charles Clark, and all that shows is he had more decency than Theresa May, seeing how many shambles she's presided over.
Fair enough. So that shows that the idea that being Home Secretary was a poisoned chalice is based on a misconception, and May's longevity in office is not really remarkable at all.
Home Secretary is also a very different job now. Back in the day the Home Secretary might get hounded on TV about the fallout from the latest prison escape. That isnt something that most people would question the Home Secretary about these days.
Prison escapes seem a bit dated - only seem to happen in transit these days - when was the last time someone dug a proper Shawshank tunnel ?
So its now the wrong type of spending and wrong type of recovery and wrong type of growth ....from the party that spun flat lined growth after triple dip after 5 million unemployed after no wage growth after .......
The endless desperate spinning from the socialists is straight from 1984 speak re-writing the line "We have always been at war with x".
Just chuck enough smelly stuff at the wall and hope some will stick?
No need to spin
There is an election in May and the Electorate will pass judgement.
I think Ed is crap will be PM
You dont.
I think 5 years of Dave and George has been 5 years of failure
You disagree.
Either way the electorate decide.
All i can say George has failed to meet his own targets on the defecit Dave has failed to meet his own target on immigration and lied to the Electorate about the NHS reorganisation.
As I say maybe I am biased maybe you are maybe we both are so lets see what the Electorates judgement is.
In case you missed it, Peter Kellner has done an article just for you
Uniform swing is now worse than useless – it is positively misleading
If Kellner is right it completely destroys the basic premise underpinning everything on here for the last 5 years - ie that if votes are close, Lab will be miles ahead on seats.
Of course Kellner may prove to be wrong - but who knows. I think it would be very foolish to be confident either way - ie confident that he is right or confident that he is wrong.
There is a significant element of Kellnerism in my ARSE projections, of which ....
The latest ARSE 2015 General Election and JackW Projections Countdown :
It was reported on Sunday that Gordon Brown was given 3 envelopes by his Tory predecessor when he became chancellor in 1997.One message said 'blame it all on the last government'. The second said 'blame it all on outside events'. The third said 'prepare a note for the incoming government'. Liam Byrne did the latter but Osborne has been following Tory advice ever since and the deficit is still rising.My teaching experience gives George 4 out of 10, needs to do better!
There is a significant element of Kellnerism in my ARSE projections, of which ....
The latest ARSE 2015 General Election and JackW Projections Countdown :
15 hours 30 minutes 45 seconds
Look forward to it!
Trying to look at the issue as objectively as possible, it would be interesting to ask Kellner what he thinks of the Ashcroft marginal polls. Because these, on average, show swings in line with national polls.
What would Kellner's answer be? Because I think he would have one - he is obviously aware of the Ashcroft polls.
The version I heard some years ago was: A minister was given three envelopes by his predecessor upon being appointed, and was told to open them whenever something terrible happened.
The first read: Blame your predecessor.
The second: Blame the Civil Service.
The third instructed: write our three envelopes for your successor.
And what was Brown blaming the Conservatives for? He had a golden economic inheritance.
A dog's breakfast of a poll. And, frankly, the thread doesn't look much better (Mike, you've used the GB figures for England). What an almighty cock up.
I've said before I don't trust his polling and this confirms his joke status. This England-only poll is also replete with sampling issues.
It would be more accurate to pin a tail on a donkey's backside.
Crap. Utter crap.
His Lordship's polls do seem to swing more wildly than the Krankies.....
"Millions of members of the Co-operative Group will vote next year on whether to withdraw £1m in annual funding from the Co-operative party, as a public survey cast doubt over the financial link.
The vote will formally test a relationship that has been in place for almost a century and is likely to take place just after the general election on 7 May."
The version I heard some years ago was: A minister was given three envelopes by his predecessor upon being appointed, and was told to open them whenever something terrible happened.
The first read: Blame your predecessor.
The second: Blame the Civil Service.
The third instructed: write our three envelopes for your successor.
And what was Brown blaming the Conservatives for? He had a golden economic inheritance.
What is said to have happened is that he was informed of the golden economic situation and replied, 'what do you want me to do, send them a fxxxing thank you note?' No idea if it's true, but it is typically graceless. Imagine the amazing state we could be in if that situation hadn't been so destructively squandered.
There's none so blind as those who will not see. This took me about a minute to put together. I'm sure there are more examples of Home Office incompetence under May's leadership.
So why do you think despite all of that, she's managed to outlast her last four predecessors
Did you see the polling showing your other criticisms of Mrs May aren't shared by the British public,
You speak about her tenure as if it is a direct reflection of the results she's acheived. Obviously, as in any job, it actually has to do with a mulitiplicity of other factors ahead of success or failure in the given task. She has lasted this long because Cameron hasn't sacked her. Why that might be is debatable, but being a member of his trusted inner circle would have to be near the top.
You really should stop posting on a political website if you think Theresa May is part of Cameron's trusted inner circle.
I'm AGOG to hear your scintillating evidence to the contrary.
Proving a positive is always a lot easier than proving a negative - and since the claim is yours, why not demonstrate it?
Comments
Tory 32%
Labour 32%
UKIP 18%
Liberal 7%
Green 7%
Other 2%
2) The polling shows most voters want her to be even more authoritarian than she already is.
THAT is the noteworthy point from a political betting perspective.
table 9, p.15
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/ANP-141201-Full-data-tables.pdf
2. After decades of a crappy education system overseen by both Labour and the Tories, most of the public have very little understanding of British history and British liberties. That's another damning indictment of both parties.
One thing we do check is whether the headline published percentages match each poll's data tables. Whilst most of the time they do in fact, there have been several occurrences where this hasn't happened.
Is this the fashionable way to show thanks to His Lordship for his opinion polls, for which we are all so very much greatful? (Do words count as much as numbers in this regard do you think?)
I've said before I don't trust his polling and this confirms his joke status. This England-only poll is also replete with sampling issues.
It would be more accurate to pin a tail on a donkey's backside.
Crap. Utter crap.
What could possibly go wrong?
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/dec/01/unsecured-borrowing-lending-to-business
The fact despite your rantings, the public don't agree with you, means they aren't properly educated, but when the polls agree with your views, then you never make that criticism.
(I could also point out your whining, when I said, Kippers were thick and uneducated)
Take a chill pill and go see the film Paddington, best British film ever.
It might make you calmer.
And then I might have come here, and considered your deluded and indefensible misunderstandings of history to be somehow learned and correct.
A damning indictment indeed.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=C2ODfuMMyss
Liked her taste in music - other than Abba.
Perhaps you could point out an area of her supervision that has done well without cock-ups? The fact the only thing you can point to is tenure says it all!
If he can't, Miliband could still just get over the line into power despite incredibly low % voting for him, although I think no overall majority is the most likely outcome.
It is hard to say which is more depraved.
So the answer to the question "Why has Theresa May survived in office?" has to include some reference to the media. Have they given her a bye because she's a Tory Home Secretary? Why else would they have not hounded her out of office in the manner that they have done to previous incumbents of the office, if we accept your proposition that she was as inept as her forebears?
Now her tenure as Home Secretary is the second best evidence she'll make a great Prime Minister
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2845596/Don-t-mimic-men-says-Theresa-picking-Walk-Like-Man-one-Desert-Island-Discs.html
Given that you think the tories will win a majority, I don;t imagine you trust any poll from any pollster right now.
The endless desperate spinning from the socialists is straight from 1984 speak re-writing the line "We have always been at war with x".
Just chuck enough smelly stuff at the wall and hope some will stick?
It's called marriage.
Children’s entertainers The Krankies have disclosed that they used to be swingers who enjoyed a lifestyle wilder than rock stars.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/celebritynews/8965006/The-Krankies-We-used-to-be-swingers.html
https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/539455456327258112
May is completely hog tied by the UK's treaty commitments, almost completely undertaken by previous governments.
Her mistake is to try to maintain the illusion that she is in charge.
David Blunkett - resigned not due to performance, but due to personal reasons
John Reid - resigned because he didn't want to work under Gordon Brown
Jacqui Smith - gave no clear reason, but likely resigned after the expenses scandal with her husband
Alan Johnson - Labour lost the election
So the only one that could be argued was "hounded out of office" was Charles Clark, and all that shows is he had more decency than Theresa May, seeing how many shambles she's presided over.
http://order-order.com/2014/12/01/nigel-farages-godless-christmas-card/
ONE of Paddington Bear's original animators revealed that the character has starred in a porn film.
Barry Leith made the secret sex tape in between shooting scenes in the 1970s - and Paddington was the lead role.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/weird-news/animator-reveals-paddington-bear-lead-4716351
Progressive tories have to be delusional. IF Dave loses power, the revenge from the massive majority to the right of him will be something to behold.
This is a good example.
Charles Clarke says he was "angry and frustrated" after being sacked as home secretary, adding that he felt Tony Blair had taken "a wrong decision".
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/5119074.stm
There is an election in May and the Electorate will pass judgement.
I think Ed is crap will be PM
You dont.
I think 5 years of Dave and George has been 5 years of failure
You disagree.
Either way the electorate decide.
All i can say George has failed to meet his own targets on the defecit Dave has failed to meet his own target on immigration and lied to the Electorate about the NHS reorganisation.
As I say maybe I am biased maybe you are maybe we both are so lets see what the Electorates judgement is.
Is Nigel Farage really Johnny Foreigner? I think we should be told....
At least on pb.com!
Uniform swing is now worse than useless – it is positively misleading
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/12/01/uniform-swing-rip/
I think the numbers for England only are Conservative 32%, Labour 32%, UKIP 18%, Others 18%.
Though he would be Lord Ashton in a more symmetrical world...
Oops – but reassuring to us mere mortals to be reminded of his good Lordship fallibility. ; )
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30282071
Of course Kellner may prove to be wrong - but who knows. I think it would be very foolish to be confident either way - ie confident that he is right or confident that he is wrong.
Is this really his christmas card? It must be a fake. Frankly I cannot believe it (which is odd since Victor Meldrwe is his target voter).
www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJEmMm-Oup8
Vivat Bacchus...
Steady. You seem to be in Guidoland.
The latest ARSE 2015 General Election and JackW Projections Countdown :
15 hours 30 minutes 45 seconds
Trying to look at the issue as objectively as possible, it would be interesting to ask Kellner what he thinks of the Ashcroft marginal polls. Because these, on average, show swings in line with national polls.
What would Kellner's answer be? Because I think he would have one - he is obviously aware of the Ashcroft polls.
The version I heard some years ago was:
A minister was given three envelopes by his predecessor upon being appointed, and was told to open them whenever something terrible happened.
The first read: Blame your predecessor.
The second: Blame the Civil Service.
The third instructed: write our three envelopes for your successor.
And what was Brown blaming the Conservatives for? He had a golden economic inheritance.
or make excuses later
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/dec/01/co-op-group-political-party-financial-links
What a shame
http://www.haveyoursay.coop/summary/hys-summary.pdf
timing is rotten and cynical mind you
"Millions of members of the Co-operative Group will vote next year on whether to withdraw £1m in annual funding from the Co-operative party, as a public survey cast doubt over the financial link.
The vote will formally test a relationship that has been in place for almost a century and is likely to take place just after the general election on 7 May."