So, let me get this right: Ed loses his seat while Labour win the election - that gives us Prime Minister Harriet Harman? At least until the Labour Conference in September - when they vote for a new Prime Minister??
So, let me get this right: Ed loses his seat while Labour win the election - that gives us Prime Minister Harriet Harman? At least until the Labour Conference in September - when they vote for a new Prime Minister??
No, as I've said the Westminster model convention is that he would remain as PM outside of the Commons [and get one bite at the cherry to get back in via a by-election].
That is the convention, but could there not be an adjustment as a result of his weakness as a result? That is, even though technically he could be PM and get back in via a by-election, would the party want him back, having him just be humiliated even as they as a group triumphed? Perhaps he would not bother, or be convinced not to bother.
It's not the party, but HM Queen who would give him his commission... [The Labour party rules make it virtually impossible to depose a sitting PM, in any case]
Yes I know she would give him his commission, but as the idea is pretty fixed that the PM will sit in the Commons, an idea that was not fixed in convention until it was tested whether the alternative would now be acceptable, and he would get another not of the cherry to get back in via a by-election as you put it. If his own party quietly makes it known they don't see the benefit of that, that in effect that in the circumstances they found themselves in they think a new leader will be needed, and he were to decide not to try to get back in the Commons, wouldn't the convention have been amended yet further, and would the Queen be advised to appoint someone else until it was clear who would best be able to command a majority, that is to say whoever Labour ended up picking? That's how these conventions develop after all, a new situation demanding a new approach or what is technically permissable running against what has been deemed politically acceptable.
Whatever the Labour party rules, since we are merely speaking of a hypothetical and unlikely scenario, if they simply refused to have anyone stand down so Ed could fight a by-election, and made that be known somehow right away, it could well be Ed was never granted a commission by the Queen - she doesn't have to appoint someone the next day or anything - so he would not have to be formally deposed as PM as he would never have been PM.
It would make a good novel, but the precedents, conventions and rules are clear, and as I've stated them...
"Real Madrid have removed the cross from their club crest as part of a lucrative three-year deal with the National Bank of Abu Dhabi.
It is believed the European champions' new crest, minus the Christian cross, was created so as not to offend Muslim sensibilities in the United Arab Emirates, where a marketing drive will take place."
I really wish the polls would get out of this horrible limbo, with numbers which are nowhere near good enough for Labour to win, yet also not quite bad enough to finally force Ed to go. If Labour fall decisively behind in the polls by Xmas, I still think Ed might decide to quit himself.
Labour won't fall decisively behind.
There will probably be another plateau until the budget/election period. That's when the major drift is most likely to occur.
Labour need to dump the pre-2010 crew and serve up a completely fresh bunch of faces, with much more awareness of being normal. Not too posh, not too leftie....just basically decent people who are driven by a desire to improve the lot of the less well off and working class, without seeing it all as a war against the wealthy.
Auditors have identified a black hole in European Union budgets that could lead to extra demands for cash from the British taxpayer of up to £34 billion over the next six years.
What is your prediction for what will happen in Scotland in May?
Don't know. Don't care.
What I do predict is that I will now see my country regaining her sovereignty within my lifetime. I have never been able to say that before. And boy oh boy oh boy, it feels good! Really, really good!
Stuart, Sweden gained its independence centuries ago
"Real Madrid have removed the cross from their club crest as part of a lucrative three-year deal with the National Bank of Abu Dhabi.
It is believed the European champions' new crest, minus the Christian cross, was created so as not to offend Muslim sensibilities in the United Arab Emirates, where a marketing drive will take place."
"Real Madrid have removed the cross from their club crest as part of a lucrative three-year deal with the National Bank of Abu Dhabi.
It is believed the European champions' new crest, minus the Christian cross, was created so as not to offend Muslim sensibilities in the United Arab Emirates, where a marketing drive will take place."
SNP MSP Christine Grahame has explained why she would consider standing for the party over the border in Berwick-Upon-Tweed at the next general election.
She said she believed the area had "much in common" with her Scottish Parliament constituency of Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale.
Ms Grahame added it would be up to her party's national executive to decide whether to take the idea forward.
She said it was a "fairly serious proposal" on her part.
They haven't proclaimed scottish independence yet and they are already planning to annex english territory? Will the SNP claim Sheffield as part of an independent scotland too?
Not English territory, it seems: there is an intriguing analysis here (I can't locate Kavanagh's original analysis):
But a more immediate point is that (a) the Berwickers are pretty fed up; and (b) if the SNP have one seat in England then the argument used by the BBC for excluding them from TV debates, etc., lapses (well, the Tories only have one seat in Scotland, and none in NI, and they claim to be a Union-wide party for that purpose).
@Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories take one point lead, Lib Dems drop to fifth: CON 33%, LAB 32%, LD 6%, UKIP 16%, GRN 7%
So, as I was saying, everything is exactly as it was a week ago. We've seen a lot of breathless excitement for no reason.
O/T the most memorable decapitation of my lifetime was Chris Patten's in 1992.
The Portillo moment?
Was amazing wasn't it, but was it a decapitation as such? It came on a night that Conservatives were trounced. Patten's lost was all the more bitter for him because the party won.
Ashcroft's marginals poll tomorrow will probably be the most significant yet as it'll be the first Tory held seats where the Tories are actually narrow favourites to hang on, so it's the point where the bookmakers think the possible Labour gains will come to an end. (unless he's revisiting previous seats)
Lord Forsyth says we could end up with Scotland being highest taxed part of UK with the least money to spend on public services
That's socialism in action. Forsyth has lost sense of how Scotland may gain economic sense. It has to adopt socialism and then face up to economic fundamentals.
As a Conservative, I'd rather eat both of my own feet than vote for UKIP, tactically or otherwise. I expect plenty of Doncaster North Conservatives will feel the same.
Lord Forsyth says we could end up with Scotland being highest taxed part of UK with the least money to spend on public services
That's socialism in action. Forsyth has lost sense of how Scotland may gain economic sense. It has to adopt socialism and then face up to economic fundamentals.
It's going to be a right socialist dump - they will no doubt still blame Westminster.
Ashcroft's marginals poll tomorrow will probably be the most significant yet as it'll be the first Tory held seats where the Tories are actually narrow favourites to hang on, so it's the point where the bookmakers think the possible Labour gains will come to an end. (unless he's revisiting previous seats)
Surely if Ashcroft were polling the same places we would at least get some sense of trends. As it is he polls different places and then we get the same margin of error every time.
Heskey is remembered fondly in Leicester, being a local lad, and was interviewed on Radio Leicesters football phone in on monday, discussing the striking situation.
It was the Radio Leicester DJ Stringfellow (a Derby fan!) who asked Heskey on air if he would return to Leicester as he is a free agent at present. Emile was flattered to be asked, but it was not a realistic bid for a job.
Despite the lack of goals Leicester City have played rather better the last couple of matches, and I think that our goal drought will end soon.
QPR away, then Liverpool at home. Our psycho Polish defender is likely to put a stop to Charlie Austin fairly early on, so it could go either way. There could be a lucky goal at either end but I cannot see a high scoring game.
I have done very well recently by betting against "both teams to score" at Leicester matches, and will do so again.
As a Conservative, I'd rather eat both of my own feet than vote for UKIP, tactically or otherwise. I expect plenty of Doncaster North Conservatives will feel the same.
A shame for the Tories many in the party have not shared that view until recently, instead seeing UKIP eating away at the Tory vote as a positive thing almost. Perhaps the tide is finally turning on that score.
So, let me get this right: Ed loses his seat while Labour win the election - that gives us Prime Minister Harriet Harman? At least until the Labour Conference in September - when they vote for a new Prime Minister??
So, let me get this right: Ed loses his seat while Labour win the elme Minister??
No, as I've said the the cherry to get back in via a by-election].
That is the convention, r.
It's not the party, bmake it virtually impossible to depose a sitting PM, in any case]
Yes I knoPM.
It would make a good novel, but the precedents, conventions and rules are clear, and as I've stated them...
But you are treating those precedents and conventions as though they are immutable, which is patently not the case as many of the established precedents today have evolved over time from a previous position, and so while the specific scenario regarding Ed M losing out even as Labour win and how that issue would play out is unlikely to come to pass to be tested, it hardly seems out of keeping with convention to consider that all it would take is one aspect of the 'rules' to not be felt acceptable in the current political climate, for those rules to be tossed out the window.
Precedents, conventions and rules may be clear, but if the political class decided those rules were no longer fit for purpose under a specific scenario, they could simply create a new one or add an additional caveat to an existing one. In that sense, maintaining that the rules are clear and that therefore things will play out in that fashion, while probably true, seems possibly less in keeping with the tradition and convention that those conventions themselves are adapted to suit the changing political and constitutional climate.
If anything, predicting a new set of rules might be established and followed seems more in keeping with the overarching convention of an adaptable framework leading to occasional changes than the notion things will definitely follow what are powerful, enduring, but informal conventions because those are what the rules are.
Can anyone explain why Scotland won control over income tax but not the tax free allowance?
No, because it hasn't happened.
But it will.
Its because the govt policy is to raise the allowance and it wants credit. I am happy to be corrected but allowances probabably tie in with other benefits. I suppose as well it makes it easier, more ratrional, to compare tax rates if they start from mthe same base.
But of course it looks like (according to the Times anyway - that Labour MPs feel totally stuffed by this. It really is not much help to the socialist SNP either. I suspect its not so much the basic rate - 'the workers' do not have anywhere to go but the job creators do.
A dog is not barking at the moment since there is no mention of oil revenues (or the lack of them).
Auditors have identified a black hole in European Union budgets that could lead to extra demands for cash from the British taxpayer of up to £34 billion over the next six years.
Ah screw it, we may as well leave. Sure, we may end up suffering for it, but we're not going to be happy being in anyway, so at least we would not be able to blame them for our own problems by then - even if they are the cause of some, by taking action to leave we will have regained responsibility for failing to fix those issues. It's clearly not worth all this bloody aggravation, and they will be much happier once we are gone as well, even if it messes up the internal politics of the Union.
As a Conservative, I'd rather eat both of my own feet than vote for UKIP, tactically or otherwise. I expect plenty of Doncaster North Conservatives will feel the same.
I'm sure you can live without feet, I would rather eat my own liver. And of course Miliband is a great conservative asset. Balls of clourse is a total ignorant toerag - there would be the horns of a dilemma. I'm glad I'm a Lancastrian (ok expat) not a Yorkshireman.
Only the Met Office (which advises the government) sticking to a milder than average winter. And I'll relish some more exchanges with Oblitus as well hehe!
Plus watch out for Cameron and co being completely unprepared for this. And we'll all know who to blame, as well as reflecting it in the ballot box on the 6th May next year. They can't say they haven't been warned.
Strange that Miliband is deemed 'anti labour' by those who want him to be, ie self serving kippers. Because of course he was put where he is by the Trade Unions. Just how is Miliband if elected not going to be an honest to good trade union inspired socialist.
Miliband isn't going to lose in Docaster North. People find voting for leaders attractive, however bad - we've been here before with the decapitation Lib Dem strategy in 2005. Yes Tim Collins lost in Westmoreland but who remembers him now. He moved away completely from politics after 2005. Still looking forward to the Ashcroft poll tomorrow, but some Tory voters are completely clueless about voting tactically. It really does make you wonder if Tory voters have a higher IQ than Labour voters!
Looking forward to the Smith commission proposals tomorrow for Scotland. I've always been in favour of devolved taxes because it brings in competition, and de facto brings in a smaller state and lower taxes. If Scotland had voted for independence in September as I had hoped, far from pushing it further in a socialistic leftwards direction, it would have pushed it rightwards as the hard realities of living within its means, plus very transparent tax competition with England would have led to such an outcome. Which was a large reason why I was in favour of the Yes campaign to begin with.
How long are the Ladbrokes seat markets going to be down for? Shadsy - pull your finger out - I can't wait to see some of the new prices for SNP and Labour across the Central Belt!
Lord Forsyth says we could end up with Scotland being highest taxed part of UK with the least money to spend on public services
That's socialism in action. Forsyth has lost sense of how Scotland may gain economic sense. It has to adopt socialism and then face up to economic fundamentals.
It's going to be a right socialist dump - they will no doubt still blame Westminster.
TCPoliticalBetting is right on this. Its amazing how people project forward linearly from the current situation, and can't see beyond the end of their noses that the whole situation will change if and when Scotland becomes independent as it will suddenly become accountable for everything it taxes and spends, in a way in which it isn't currently.
@Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories take one point lead, Lib Dems drop to fifth: CON 33%, LAB 32%, LD 6%, UKIP 16%, GRN 7%
So, as I was saying, everything is exactly as it was a week ago. We've seen a lot of breathless excitement for no reason.
O/T the most memorable decapitation of my lifetime was Chris Patten's in 1992.
The Portillo moment?
Was amazing wasn't it, but was it a decapitation as such? It came on a night that Conservatives were trounced. Patten's lost was all the more bitter for him because the party won.
Yes, but I think Patten got pretty good compensation in being the last governor of Hong Kong! That was a vastly preferable job compared to being around for the Tory infighting from 1992-7. Everything has a silver lining as they say!
Of course, in the real world all the parties have signed up to it, given that this is a cross-party agreement.
At least two parties think EV4EL is the balancing requirement.
But all the parties have agreed that all MPs will vote on the UK budget, which - of course - is as it should be.
The agreement is about the tax raising powers of Scotland. It is not about the law passing powers of non-English MPs. The overall national budget and economic policy of the UK will be set by the UK parliament. Where Scotland wants to spend more or less it can tax and spend accordingly. I do not approve of devolution, and what we have now is the inevitable consequence. At least with a tory govt we willget EVEL. I am sure that in the final analysis the Scottish public will hold their hands up and agree to pay themselves for any failures of their Scottish government.
Plus the awkward questions over the tax regime that Luxembourg ran whilst he was PM will never refuse to go away. Shadsy should put up a market as to whether he will see out his full term or not. I would be very tempted to bet against if the price was right.
I do sometimes wonder if the Labour Party is just a great big joke that has yet to be rumbled. They can't seriously intend to go into a general election with that millstone hanging around their neck?
Of course, in the real world all the parties have signed up to it, given that this is a cross-party agreement.
Labour didn't want a change to MPs voting rights, the Tories did but didn't get their way. This will be rightly pinned on to the Labour Party.
The voting rights will be an election issue. It was never part of this agreement - and the Tories never intended it to be. If it had been it would be an electoral disadvantage. Labour are in total disarray over this issue http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4279710.ece
Auditors have identified a black hole in European Union budgets that could lead to extra demands for cash from the British taxpayer of up to £34 billion over the next six years.
.
Ah screw it, we may as well leave. Sure, we may end up suffering for it, but we're not going to be happy being in anyway, so at least we would not be able to blame them for our own problems by then - even if they are the cause of some, by taking action to leave we will have regained responsibility for failing to fix those issues. It's clearly not worth all this bloody aggravation, and they will be much happier once we are gone as well, even if it messes up the internal politics of the Union.
A good night to all, except the EU.
We discussed this here when Cameron made his budget deal. Basically most of the other member states wanted to spend more money, but Cameron wanted to freeze the number that had been used in the British press, which was the total cap. You don't normally reach the total cap, so the solution was to increase spending but freeze the cap.
The mark of great negotiators like David Cameron is that they can come up with imaginative deals where everybody wins...
I do sometimes wonder if the Labour Party is just a great big joke that has yet to be rumbled. They can't seriously intend to go into a general election with that millstone hanging around their neck?
Voting Conservative never made more sense. I'd like to praise Cameron but clearly it was an obvious policy to come up with once there was more devolution on offer. More devolution broke the dam it broke the status quo and made EVEL the obvious response to the growing West Lothian question. The Tories have made it ntheoir own and labour are floundering on it.
Lord Forsyth says we could end up with Scotland being highest taxed part of UK with the least money to spend on public services
That's socialism in action. Forsyth has lost sense of how Scotland may gain economic sense. It has to adopt socialism and then face up to economic fundamentals.
It's going to be a right socialist dump - they will no doubt still blame Westminster.
TCPoliticalBetting is right on this. Its amazing how people project forward linearly from the current situation, and can't see beyond the end of their noses that the whole situation will change if and when Scotland becomes independent as it will suddenly become accountable for everything it taxes and spends, in a way in which it isn't currently.
Its not going to be accountable for everything it taxes and spends. It is being respoinsible for its income tax levels.
Only the Met Office (which advises the government) sticking to a milder than average winter. And I'll relish some more exchanges with Oblitus as well hehe!
Plus watch out for Cameron and co being completely unprepared for this. And we'll all know who to blame, as well as reflecting it in the ballot box on the 6th May next year. They can't say they haven't been warned.
I just put the following search terms into Google:
express heavy snow winter 2013
The Express ran very similar headlines about heavy snow on 17th November 2013, 12th October 2013, 13th, 20th and 22nd November 2013
As a Conservative, I'd rather eat both of my own feet than vote for UKIP, tactically or otherwise. I expect plenty of Doncaster North Conservatives will feel the same.
I'm sure you can live without feet, I would rather eat my own liver. And of course Miliband is a great conservative asset. Balls of clourse is a total ignorant toerag - there would be the horns of a dilemma. I'm glad I'm a Lancastrian (ok expat) not a Yorkshireman.
It is fantastically funny that the Tory message has been that a vote for UKIP is a vote for Ed and now we have some of those same Tories - and yes I am talking about you Flightpath - on here saying that if there was a real chance to get rid of Ed by voting UKIP they wouldn't do it.
Shows just how hypocritical and self serving the Tory fanatics are.
It is fantastically funny that the Tory message has been that a vote for UKIP is a vote for Ed and now we have some of those same Tories - and yes I am talking about you Flightpath - on here saying that if there was a real chance to get rid of Ed by voting UKIP they wouldn't do it.
Shows just how hypocritical and self serving the Tory fanatics are.
Of course a Labour fanatic would never be either of those things.
@Carnyx is spinning like a windmill in a full blown gale when he suggests either a sea-change in Scottish Politics, or that the National is somehow not uncritical of the SNP either! This newspaper is about as balanced as Carynyx's favourite SNP site 'Wings over Scotland' or the journalist Ian McWhirter, who he often tries to portray as 'balanced' in the Indy Referendum!! Twitter Iain Macwhirter @iainmacwhirter · Nov 23 immensely excited about first new Scottish daily paper in twenty years. The National. Out tomorrow. http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/tomorrow-the-national-a-new-daily-paper-for-scotland.25941314 …
Mr Eugenides @Mr_Eugenides · 4h 4 hours ago “@ScotNational: Just finished issue number 4 … And here it is . ” >Yep. Looks like an SNP press officer’s wet dream.
And from a Yes supporter........ Alasdair Bremner @ADBremner · Nov 25 I can see why @ScotNational is targeting Yes base, to establish itself, but it probably doesn't need to do it so full on as it is.
@Carnyx Found an Egg Jim Murphy Facebook community, I am pleased to report that his non support for Palestine may result in some more broken eggs.
I couldn't possibly comment - definitely not my fight or my pooch therein. But, like his relatively right wing policies (till yesterday, as far as tax is concerned), it may be to do with the demographics of his constituency.
Of course, Mr Salmond will be blamed (again) for any eggs ...
In other news, the new Scottish newspaper The National is being printed with twice the print un and seems to be about third best selling in Scotland. Another indication of a sea-change in Scottish politics, and it's not uncritical of the SNP either.
RichardN Albeit the SNP are committed to cutting corporation tax
Given where oil prices are, in reality that might not be possible if Scotland were independent. What was the basis for the SNP's economic prospectus for iScotland? £110 a barrel, wasn't it?
What has the Oil price got to do with Corporation Tax rates ? Ireland has no oil and yet its CT rate is 12%.
Cutting CT rate is more of a long term measure. Bringing in non EU investment [ or even from within the EU ] to get a foothold.
RichardN Albeit the SNP are committed to cutting corporation tax
Given where oil prices are, in reality that might not be possible if Scotland were independent. What was the basis for the SNP's economic prospectus for iScotland? £110 a barrel, wasn't it?
What has the Oil price got to do with Corporation Tax rates ? Ireland has no oil and yet its CT rate is 12%.
Cutting CT rate is more of a long term measure. Bringing in non EU investment [ or even from within the EU ] to get a foothold.
I think he's referring to the corporation tax that the oil companies will pay. Lower oil price = less profit and less corporation tax, so making the rate lower will hurt more.
RichardN Albeit the SNP are committed to cutting corporation tax
Given where oil prices are, in reality that might not be possible if Scotland were independent. What was the basis for the SNP's economic prospectus for iScotland? £110 a barrel, wasn't it?
What has the Oil price got to do with Corporation Tax rates ? Ireland has no oil and yet its CT rate is 12%.
Cutting CT rate is more of a long term measure. Bringing in non EU investment [ or even from within the EU ] to get a foothold.
It has to do with the income the government is going to need to fund its spending program. If the oil price drops, the tax the government takes from oil sales drops and they either need to cut their spending programs, or increase tax elsewhere. The Socialist Republic of SNPland has far more generous spending programs planned than those advanced by the Irish government, so if the oil taxes are down they won't be able to fund the cuts in corporation tax without cutting benefits and other handouts which are a large chunk of their platform.
(Ireland raises just under 30% of GDP as tax, compared to the UK raising just over 40%)
"Regulators in Brussels have announced they believe links removed from search engines under the so-called Right to be Forgotten ruling should extend worldwide, and in particular to '.com' domains such as Google.com."
Good luck with that... jurisdictional overreach anyone ? What happens when Brussels comes up against First Amendment rights ?
Only the Met Office (which advises the government) sticking to a milder than average winter. And I'll relish some more exchanges with Oblitus as well hehe!
Plus watch out for Cameron and co being completely unprepared for this. And we'll all know who to blame, as well as reflecting it in the ballot box on the 6th May next year. They can't say they haven't been warned.
The Met Office forecast is a probabilistic forecast which does not preclude the possibility of a colder than average winter. Yes, more likely than not, they are suggesting it will be milder than average - it's also possible to have a memorable cold spell in an otherwise mild winter.
Anyway, I would rather put my trust in our excellent Met Office rather than spurious one-man bands such as James Madden and Piers Corbyn. You need to get onto Netweather.tv to see what people think about these two gentleman - they have no credibility.
Let me reiterate, we are world leaders in the field of meteorology - it's about time the nutjobs and fruitcakes actually start to appreciate that fact.
It is fantastically funny that the Tory message has been that a vote for UKIP is a vote for Ed and now we have some of those same Tories - and yes I am talking about you Flightpath - on here saying that if there was a real chance to get rid of Ed by voting UKIP they wouldn't do it.
Shows just how hypocritical and self serving the Tory fanatics are.
Of course a Labour fanatic would never be either of those things.
Hmmm but this place is nearly 100% full of Tory fanatics - this is not a balanced blog so the term 'Labour fanatic' is redundant.
Shadsy cuts his price yet again on the SNP getting more MPs than the struggling SLABbers:
Ladbrokes - Most Scottish seats?
(Just a tiny detail, but is is extremely rare for Shadsy to price no-hopers at longer that 100/1. The Scottish Conservative brand is so fatally crippled that even the normal floor is simply too high.)
So what does it mean that he doesn't even price up the LibDems...?
Evening all, although decapitation campaigns never work as we saw with the LibDem efforts against top Tories in 2005 (who all substantially increased their majorities), IF Ed loses his Doncaster seat and IF Labour wins the GE, it would be incredibly funny if not a single Labour MP offered to retire to make way for Ed in a by-election or if one could be found, if Ed then duly lost the by-election.
Not quite true as the Lib Dems did win Westmorland in 2005
Lol!
You're claiming Tim Collins' scalp as proof that decapitation works?
As a Conservative, I'd rather eat both of my own feet than vote for UKIP, tactically or otherwise. I expect plenty of Doncaster North Conservatives will feel the same.
I'm sure you can live without feet, I would rather eat my own liver. And of course Miliband is a great conservative asset. Balls of clourse is a total ignorant toerag - there would be the horns of a dilemma. I'm glad I'm a Lancastrian (ok expat) not a Yorkshireman.
It is fantastically funny that the Tory message has been that a vote for UKIP is a vote for Ed and now we have some of those same Tories - and yes I am talking about you Flightpath - on here saying that if there was a real chance to get rid of Ed by voting UKIP they wouldn't do it.
Shows just how hypocritical and self serving the Tory fanatics are.
It's not hypocrisy at all.
"A vote for UKIP is a vote for Ed" refers to Ed becoming PM [i.e. any constituency outside Doncaster North]
@Flightpath's comments relate to voting for EdM in his own constituency
Ed Miliband will almost certainly win in Doncaster. However such stories and doubt may still have an effect in forcing Labour to spend sparse money to shore up their vote in their heartlands. This would reduce the amount available in their target seats.
The Conservatives have the same issue in seats that may go to UKIP, but seem to have more money available.
Edit: although it could also have the effect of forcing Miliband to campaign more in his own constituency, keeping him away from the rest of the country. This reduced visibility could only help Labour's vote elsewhere ... :-)
Only the Met Office (which advises the government) sticking to a milder than average winter. And I'll relish some more exchanges with Oblitus as well hehe!
Plus watch out for Cameron and co being completely unprepared for this. And we'll all know who to blame, as well as reflecting it in the ballot box on the 6th May next year. They can't say they haven't been warned.
The Met Office forecast is a probabilistic forecast which does not preclude the possibility of a colder than average winter. Yes, more likely than not, they are suggesting it will be milder than average - it's also possible to have a memorable cold spell in an otherwise mild winter.
Anyway, I would rather put my trust in our excellent Met Office rather than spurious one-man bands such as James Madden and Piers Corbyn. You need to get onto Netweather.tv to see what people think about these two gentleman - they have no credibility.
Let me reiterate, we are world leaders in the field of meteorology - it's about time the nutjobs and fruitcakes actually start to appreciate that fact.
Only the Met Office (which advises the government) sticking to a milder than average winter. And I'll relish some more exchanges with Oblitus as well hehe!
Plus watch out for Cameron and co being completely unprepared for this. And we'll all know who to blame, as well as reflecting it in the ballot box on the 6th May next year. They can't say they haven't been warned.
The Met Office forecast is a probabilistic forecast which does not preclude the possibility of a colder than average winter. Yes, more likely than not, they are suggesting it will be milder than average - it's also possible to have a memorable cold spell in an otherwise mild winter.
Anyway, I would rather put my trust in our excellent Met Office rather than spurious one-man bands such as James Madden and Piers Corbyn. You need to get onto Netweather.tv to see what people think about these two gentleman - they have no credibility.
Let me reiterate, we are world leaders in the field of meteorology - it's about time the nutjobs and fruitcakes actually start to appreciate that fact.
The Express is always predicting bad weather.
Indeed! As well as cures for diabetes / dementia and anything to do with Maddie or Diana.
I'm not sure it can be called a newspaper any longer.
Ashcroft's marginals poll tomorrow will probably be the most significant yet as it'll be the first Tory held seats where the Tories are actually narrow favourites to hang on, so it's the point where the bookmakers think the possible Labour gains will come to an end. (unless he's revisiting previous seats)
Again let's not get over-excited. I don't trust Ashcroft as a pollster and I'm not convinced about how psephologically robust these constituency polls are. There are major issues around sampling, he overstates Labour's share of the vote, and without any corresponding pollster with which to compare we need a healthy dose of scepticism.
As a Conservative, I'd rather eat both of my own feet than vote for UKIP, tactically or otherwise. I expect plenty of Doncaster North Conservatives will feel the same.
Me too. I would rather vote LibDem then Green then Labour and then I wouldn't vote. Anything but UKIP who I view as a nasty, pernicious, group of malcontents, mavericks and little Englanders. Apologies if that does offend kippers on here, but it's how I see your party so I'm just being honest. In the Doncaster North situation, if it was really touch and go I would vote Labour to keep out UKIP.
Ed Miliband will almost certainly win in Doncaster. However such stories and doubt may still have an effect in forcing Labour to spend sparse money to shore up their vote in their heartlands. This would reduce the amount available in their target seats.
The Conservatives have the same issue in seats that may go to UKIP, but seem to have more money available.
Edit: although it could also have the effect of forcing Miliband to campaign more in his own constituency, keeping him away from the rest of the country. This reduced visibility could only help Labour's vote elsewhere ... :-)
The Conservatives spending didn't save them in Rochester.
They seem to be unable to attract voters. That's a bigger problem than attracting donations.
Explicitly campaigning against "pointing at things and taxing them"
He's in the wrong party, if he truly thinks that. And good on him if he does.
Well, either that or he desperately wants to be Labour leader and PM, and will say anything to anyone that he thinks will maximise his support and make him popular.
Ed Miliband will almost certainly win in Doncaster. However such stories and doubt may still have an effect in forcing Labour to spend sparse money to shore up their vote in their heartlands. This would reduce the amount available in their target seats.
The Conservatives have the same issue in seats that may go to UKIP, but seem to have more money available.
Edit: although it could also have the effect of forcing Miliband to campaign more in his own constituency, keeping him away from the rest of the country. This reduced visibility could only help Labour's vote elsewhere ... :-)
The Conservatives spending didn't save them in Rochester.
They seem to be unable to attract voters. That's a bigger problem than attracting donations.
No, it didn't save them. But Rochester and Stroud was a by-election in unusual circumstances. You cannot expect the GE to play out exactly the same way.
"Herman Van Rompuy hits out at David Cameron’s demands for change as it is disclosed UK faces £34bn bill for ‘black hole’ in budget
The European Union “will survive” if Britain leaves after an in-out referendum but would be “dead” if France voted for exit, Herman Van Rompuy has said."
That's all going well then! He better hope Ms Le Pen doesn't get into the run-off.
"Herman Van Rompuy hits out at David Cameron’s demands for change as it is disclosed UK faces £34bn bill for ‘black hole’ in budget
The European Union “will survive” if Britain leaves after an in-out referendum but would be “dead” if France voted for exit, Herman Van Rompuy has said."
That's all going well then! He better hope Ms Le Pen doesn't get into the run-off.
Sounds like France can pretty much do what they want, all they have to do is threaten to leave!
"Herman Van Rompuy hits out at David Cameron’s demands for change as it is disclosed UK faces £34bn bill for ‘black hole’ in budget
The European Union “will survive” if Britain leaves after an in-out referendum but would be “dead” if France voted for exit, Herman Van Rompuy has said."
That's all going well then! He better hope Ms Le Pen doesn't get into the run-off.
Sounds like France can pretty much do what they want, all they have to do is threaten to leave!
It has always been the same - France has always broken EU rules when it is to its adavantage and has never paid any fines imposed by the EU.
Evening all, although decapitation campaigns never work as we saw with the LibDem efforts against top Tories in 2005 (who all substantially increased their majorities), IF Ed loses his Doncaster seat and IF Labour wins the GE, it would be incredibly funny if not a single Labour MP offered to retire to make way for Ed in a by-election or if one could be found, if Ed then duly lost the by-election.
Not quite true as the Lib Dems did win Westmorland in 2005
Lol!
You're claiming Tim Collins' scalp as proof that decapitation works?
Is that really the best you can do?
The strategy, if there was one, succeeded because for whatever reason Tim Collins seemed to have lost the plot. He had either become too big for his boots, or his mind was on other things. He lost a significant amount weight immediately prior to the election, and his clothes were literally hanging off him. He either imagined that he would be a shoo-in or had no desire to win. On the Saturday before the election I spotted him shuffling through a local shopping centre, actually out shopping, but with his head down and giving every impression that he didn't want to be noticed.
Tim Farron meanwhile, clearly wanted the job. He was surrounded by an energetic and enthusiastic group of activists, who had painted the locality yellow and who were campaigning as is their lives depended upon it. They were clearly out to win, and there was probably some form of strategy afoot, but I remain very much of the view that Collins lost the seat, as opposed to Farron winning it. The fight simply wasn't in him.
Explicitly campaigning against "pointing at things and taxing them"
He's in the wrong party, if he truly thinks that. And good on him if he does.
Well, either that or he desperately wants to be Labour leader and PM, and will say anything to anyone that he thinks will maximise his support and make him popular.
Chuka made a very ambiguous remark. Labour may think that the lowest tax level possible is 80% for some people and 10% for others, if its wants to redistribute wealth and make economic outcome equal for all (except for Labour's top people).
Comments
O/T the most memorable decapitation of my lifetime was Chris Patten's in 1992.
twitter.com/ConservativesWM/status/537725021972467712
It is believed the European champions' new crest, minus the Christian cross, was created so as not to offend Muslim sensibilities in the United Arab Emirates, where a marketing drive will take place."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/real-madrid/11256833/Real-Madrid-lose-Christian-cross-from-club-crest-to-appease-Abu-Dhabi-bank.html
There will probably be another plateau until the budget/election period. That's when the major drift is most likely to occur.
Labour need to dump the pre-2010 crew and serve up a completely fresh bunch of faces, with much more awareness of being normal. Not too posh, not too leftie....just basically decent people who are driven by a desire to improve the lot of the less well off and working class, without seeing it all as a war against the wealthy.
Auditors have identified a black hole in European Union budgets that could lead to extra demands for cash from the British taxpayer of up to £34 billion over the next six years.
I fear Dickson is a hardcore ethnonationalist.
http://www.newsnetscotland.scot/index.php/scottish-opinion/3035-the-berwick-effect.html
But a more immediate point is that (a) the Berwickers are pretty fed up; and (b) if the SNP have one seat in England then the argument used by the BBC for excluding them from TV debates, etc., lapses (well, the Tories only have one seat in Scotland, and none in NI, and they claim to be a Union-wide party for that purpose).
http://www.football365.com/leicester-city/9579294/Heskey-To-Come-To-Leicester-s-Goal-Rescue-
That's socialism in action. Forsyth has lost sense of how Scotland may gain economic sense. It has to adopt socialism and then face up to economic fundamentals.
"Michael Portillo's great train journey into Britain's nooks and crannies - with a timetable from 1839 as my companion"
Mind boggles
http://wingsoverscotland.com/vow-left-on-bus-eaten-by-dog/#more-63781
pbs.twimg.com/media/B3ZzX5lIcAAJRsi.jpg
Great sings with superb lyrics.
It was the Radio Leicester DJ Stringfellow (a Derby fan!) who asked Heskey on air if he would return to Leicester as he is a free agent at present. Emile was flattered to be asked, but it was not a realistic bid for a job.
Despite the lack of goals Leicester City have played rather better the last couple of matches, and I think that our goal drought will end soon.
QPR away, then Liverpool at home. Our psycho Polish defender is likely to put a stop to Charlie Austin fairly early on, so it could go either way. There could be a lucky goal at either end but I cannot see a high scoring game.
I have done very well recently by betting against "both teams to score" at Leicester matches, and will do so again.
It is so much more comfortable to blame others than look internally at the reasons for failure.
Precedents, conventions and rules may be clear, but if the political class decided those rules were no longer fit for purpose under a specific scenario, they could simply create a new one or add an additional caveat to an existing one. In that sense, maintaining that the rules are clear and that therefore things will play out in that fashion, while probably true, seems possibly less in keeping with the tradition and convention that those conventions themselves are adapted to suit the changing political and constitutional climate.
If anything, predicting a new set of rules might be established and followed seems more in keeping with the overarching convention of an adaptable framework leading to occasional changes than the notion things will definitely follow what are powerful, enduring, but informal conventions because those are what the rules are.
Its because the govt policy is to raise the allowance and it wants credit. I am happy to be corrected but allowances probabably tie in with other benefits. I suppose as well it makes it easier, more ratrional, to compare tax rates if they start from mthe same base.
But of course it looks like (according to the Times anyway - that Labour MPs feel totally stuffed by this. It really is not much help to the socialist SNP either. I suspect its not so much the basic rate - 'the workers' do not have anywhere to go but the job creators do.
A dog is not barking at the moment since there is no mention of oil revenues (or the lack of them).
https://twitter.com/thomasknox
By next week it will also have included a free pass to Qatar 2022 for the footie team.
A good night to all, except the EU.
Balls of clourse is a total ignorant toerag - there would be the horns of a dilemma.
I'm glad I'm a Lancastrian (ok expat) not a Yorkshireman.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nVr4Ys8zKM
http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/540052/UK-weather-December-forecast-heavy-snow-winter-freeze
Only the Met Office (which advises the government) sticking to a milder than average winter. And I'll relish some more exchanges with Oblitus as well hehe!
Plus watch out for Cameron and co being completely unprepared for this. And we'll all know who to blame, as well as reflecting it in the ballot box on the 6th May next year. They can't say they haven't been warned.
Just how is Miliband if elected not going to be an honest to good trade union inspired socialist.
I do not approve of devolution, and what we have now is the inevitable consequence. At least with a tory govt we willget EVEL. I am sure that in the final analysis the Scottish public will hold their hands up and agree to pay themselves for any failures of their Scottish government.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/11/26/the-eu-commissioner/
Plus the awkward questions over the tax regime that Luxembourg ran whilst he was PM will never refuse to go away. Shadsy should put up a market as to whether he will see out his full term or not. I would be very tempted to bet against if the price was right.
Good night all.
Labour are in total disarray over this issue
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4279710.ece
http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/understanding-george-osborne.html?spref=tw
The mark of great negotiators like David Cameron is that they can come up with imaginative deals where everybody wins...
I'd like to praise Cameron but clearly it was an obvious policy to come up with once there was more devolution on offer. More devolution broke the dam it broke the status quo and made EVEL the obvious response to the growing West Lothian question. The Tories have made it ntheoir own and labour are floundering on it.
It is being respoinsible for its income tax levels.
express heavy snow winter 2013
The Express ran very similar headlines about heavy snow on 17th November 2013, 12th October 2013, 13th, 20th and 22nd November 2013
When the Express ran the first of those stories, the Met Office were moved to respond.
Do tell us all hunchman how accurate the forecasts in the Express for last winter proved to be?
I think the appropriate sign off at this point is: LOL
Shows just how hypocritical and self serving the Tory fanatics are.
Twitter
Iain Macwhirter @iainmacwhirter · Nov 23
immensely excited about first new Scottish daily paper in twenty years. The National. Out tomorrow. http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/tomorrow-the-national-a-new-daily-paper-for-scotland.25941314 …
Mr Eugenides @Mr_Eugenides · 4h 4 hours ago
“@ScotNational: Just finished issue number 4 … And here it is . ” >Yep. Looks like an SNP press officer’s wet dream.
Severin Carrell @severincarrell · Nov 24
The National launch day review: a McPravda for Scotland’s separatists? asks @libby_brooks http://gu.com/p/43tvk/tw @ScotNational #indyref
And from a Yes supporter........
Alasdair Bremner @ADBremner · Nov 25
I can see why @ScotNational is targeting Yes base, to establish itself, but it probably doesn't need to do it so full on as it is.
Cutting CT rate is more of a long term measure. Bringing in non EU investment [ or even from within the EU ] to get a foothold.
(Ireland raises just under 30% of GDP as tax, compared to the UK raising just over 40%)
RIP
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cricket/30219440
"Regulators in Brussels have announced they believe links removed from search engines under the so-called Right to be Forgotten ruling should extend worldwide, and in particular to '.com' domains such as Google.com."
Good luck with that... jurisdictional overreach anyone ? What happens when Brussels comes up against First Amendment rights ?
Anyway, I would rather put my trust in our excellent Met Office rather than spurious one-man bands such as James Madden and Piers Corbyn. You need to get onto Netweather.tv to see what people think about these two gentleman - they have no credibility.
Let me reiterate, we are world leaders in the field of meteorology - it's about time the nutjobs and fruitcakes actually start to appreciate that fact.
You're claiming Tim Collins' scalp as proof that decapitation works?
Is that really the best you can do?
The most interesting problem, IMHO, is the crowding out effect that I believe exists in parts of the UK.
"A vote for UKIP is a vote for Ed" refers to Ed becoming PM [i.e. any constituency outside Doncaster North]
@Flightpath's comments relate to voting for EdM in his own constituency
The Conservatives have the same issue in seats that may go to UKIP, but seem to have more money available.
Edit: although it could also have the effect of forcing Miliband to campaign more in his own constituency, keeping him away from the rest of the country. This reduced visibility could only help Labour's vote elsewhere ... :-)
If you just take out the ring leader then the 2iC steps up. So you take him/her out as well.
The third can be somewhat at random from the second tier in order to spread fear among the rest.
I'm not sure it can be called a newspaper any longer.
They seem to be unable to attract voters. That's a bigger problem than attracting donations.
Well, either that or he desperately wants to be Labour leader and PM, and will say anything to anyone that he thinks will maximise his support and make him popular.
"Herman Van Rompuy hits out at David Cameron’s demands for change as it is disclosed UK faces £34bn bill for ‘black hole’ in budget
The European Union “will survive” if Britain leaves after an in-out referendum but would be “dead” if France voted for exit, Herman Van Rompuy has said."
That's all going well then! He better hope Ms Le Pen doesn't get into the run-off.
Tim Farron meanwhile, clearly wanted the job. He was surrounded by an energetic and enthusiastic group of activists, who had painted the locality yellow and who were campaigning as is their lives depended upon it. They were clearly out to win, and there was probably some form of strategy afoot, but I remain very much of the view that Collins lost the seat, as opposed to Farron winning it. The fight simply wasn't in him.
What would Jesus think?
Stagecoach and Virgin win East Coast mainline rail franchise
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30222458