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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ed Miliband could be in trouble in Doncaster

SystemSystem Posts: 12,214
edited November 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ed Miliband could be in trouble in Doncaster

Released tomorrow polling in Doncaster North showing UKIP 2nd so if Tories tactically vote for UKIP Miliband loses #votetorygetlabour!

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,960
    edited November 2014
    MegaLolz
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,960
    Ed Miliband is the worst strategist/tactician since Hannibal.
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 354
    I think this thread is based on wishful thinking.

    It won't be the first.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    It'd be quite something if Labour were able to form a government, and Ed was defeated. In that circumstance, perhaps he should be ennobled and lead from the other place. ;)
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    Perhaps the Tory candidate could stand down?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    Eastwinger said:

    I think this thread is based on wishful thinking.

    It won't be the first.

    It's actually based on polling.

    Whether or not Lord A's polling is wishful thinking is another matter.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,709
    Is the orthodoxy still that the Tories suffer worse than Labour from UKIP? I've always questioned that orthodoxy for several reasons and am pleased to see it apparently crumbling.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited November 2014
    Unless it's close in Doncaster North it's a bit of a cheap shot by Ashcroft. The two opposition parties converging into one would potentially unseat plenty of MPs, in all but the safest seats.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    If the Tories stand down in favour of UKIP - Ed will win by a mile. People really don't understand how much a tacit Tory endorsement would damage UKIP in Doncaster.

    But as the S Yorks PPC vote showed, despite Tory fantasy, the northern Labour vote is still there.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Is the orthodoxy still that the Tories suffer worse than Labour from UKIP? I've always questioned that orthodoxy for several reasons and am pleased to see it apparently crumbling.

    We've had discussions in the past where it was argued that, to a point, UKIP hurts Tories. Beyond that point, they begin to hurt Labour more and more. Not sure if this has been proven with any real evidence, but it is an interesting hypothesis.
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 354
    RobD said:

    Eastwinger said:

    I think this thread is based on wishful thinking.

    It won't be the first.

    It's actually based on polling.

    Whether or not Lord A's polling is wishful thinking is another matter.
    So was the Tory collapse but then we all knew that was a bit suspect. I would think that this one is much the same. Dan Hodges will run naked down Whitehall if Ed loses.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,960
    edited November 2014
    RobD said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Is the orthodoxy still that the Tories suffer worse than Labour from UKIP? I've always questioned that orthodoxy for several reasons and am pleased to see it apparently crumbling.

    We've had discussions in the past where it was argued that, to a point, UKIP hurts Tories. Beyond that point, they begin to hurt Labour more and more. Not sure if this has been proven with any real evidence, but it is an interesting hypothesis.
    I've been looking at the polling data, my analysis so fasr is this

    The first wave of UKIP support came from the Tories.

    The second wave of UKIP support came from 2010 Con support who first went Labour post omnishambles, then moved on to UKIP since 2013.

    Edit: Labour would be buggered if it wasn't for the 2010 LD switchers, most of whom switched before Ed became leader.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    edited November 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Is the orthodoxy still that the Tories suffer worse than Labour from UKIP? I've always questioned that orthodoxy for several reasons and am pleased to see it apparently crumbling.

    We've had discussions in the past where it was argued that, to a point, UKIP hurts Tories. Beyond that point, they begin to hurt Labour more and more. Not sure if this has been proven with any real evidence, but it is an interesting hypothesis.
    I've been looking at the polling data, my analysis so fasr is this

    The first wave of UKIP support came from the Tories.

    The second wave of UKIP support came from 2010 Con support who first went Labour post omnishambles, then moved on to UKIP since 2013.

    Edit: Labour would be buggered if it wasn't for the 2010 LD switchers, most of whom switched before Ed became leader.
    Cause I love blowing my own trumpet.. *ahem*...

    I'd agree with that. The Tories have been flatlining over the past 3 months, and it seems all of UKIPs recent rise can be attributed to the fall in the Labour share.

    goo.gl/9RfFdf
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,960
    Ok Ed is screwed, after Mike tweeted a link to this thread....

    ‏@DPJHodges

    @MSmithsonPB Don't you ever mock me for my David Miliband prediction ever again...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    If Ed didn't have a personal vote before he will in 2015.....I imagine Doncaster could put up with having their MP as PM, even Ed.......
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,960
    Uh oh

    @DPJHodges

    If Ed Miliband loses his seat I'll run down Whitehall dressed as @MSmithsonPB...
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Dan is running down whitehall naked as it is as UKIP are going to get more than 6%.

    Yup - that's how little he settled for: 6%
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,709
    CarlottaVance said:

    If Ed didn't have a personal vote before he will in 2015.....I imagine Doncaster could put up with having their MP as PM, even Ed.......

    I doubt Ed has any personal vote to speak of. I imagine the people of Doncaster regard him as North London metropolitan posh boy but just not a Tory one. That's a why a UKIP surge could prove deadly. If the voters want to punish Labour for being posh, they've now got a means (UKIP) to do it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,960
    For the record, I think Ed Miliband is as secure in Doncaster North as Nick Clegg is in Sheffield Hallam.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    @Carnyx Found an Egg Jim Murphy Facebook community, I am pleased to report that his non support for Palestine may result in some more broken eggs.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 1m1 minute ago
    Latest ComRes/itv poll of marginals suggests that LAB still strong
    Con 31% (+1)
    Lab 39% (-2)
    LD 7% (+1)
    UKIP 18% (+1)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    I can't quite understand the tweet. Is Ashcroft confirming that UKIP + the Tories' combined poll share is higher than Miliband's?
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    Nigel Farage goes after the Catholic vote.

    http://www.catholicherald.co.uk/commentandblogs/2014/11/26/pope-francis-believes-the-european-project-has-gone-badly-wrong/
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Could Lord Miliband still be PM from the other place ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,960
    TGOHF said:

    Could Lord Miliband still be PM from the other place ?

    Yup
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    In any case, for all the inaccurate memes about how UKIP's rise is all some personal vendetta against Cameron's supposed "centrism", it will be quite amusing to see UKIP get about triple the voteshare in the Labour leader's seat than in Cameron's seat.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Unfortunately the possibility of Ed losing in Doncaster could well boost the rest of the Labour vote!
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    UKIP are doing a lot better in the North of England. But it is mainly at the expense of an already established Labour vote. I expect the Tory vote to disappear almost entirely in the north. Not that this will cost them any seats.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TGOHF said:

    Could Lord Miliband still be PM from the other place ?

    Yup
    BJO will be relieved...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    TGOHF said:

    Could Lord Miliband still be PM from the other place ?

    Would also lead to a much more dignified PMQs!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Last public execution in France took place as late as 1939
    https://twitter.com/oldpicsarchive/status/537684274481487874
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited November 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Is the orthodoxy still that the Tories suffer worse than Labour from UKIP? I've always questioned that orthodoxy for several reasons and am pleased to see it apparently crumbling.

    We've had discussions in the past where it was argued that, to a point, UKIP hurts Tories. Beyond that point, they begin to hurt Labour more and more. Not sure if this has been proven with any real evidence, but it is an interesting hypothesis.
    I've been looking at the polling data, my analysis so fasr is this

    The first wave of UKIP support came from the Tories.

    The second wave of UKIP support came from 2010 Con support who first went Labour post omnishambles, then moved on to UKIP since 2013.
    .
    Yup. I've long thought that most of UKIP's rise (post-2012 atleast) has come from typical swing/floating/"centre-ground" voters. People who might have voted Tory in 2010, maybe because of immigration or simply because they thought it was "time for a change" from Labour, but who have never considered themselves to be anything close to "instinctive" Tories.

    I don't think it's any coincidence that UKIP's heartlands of Kent and Essex are where the traditional swing battlegrounds are.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    IOS said:

    UKIP are doing a lot better in the North of England. But it is mainly at the expense of an already established Labour vote. I expect the Tory vote to disappear almost entirely in the north. Not that this will cost them any seats.

    Ergo the Con vote in the South is becoming more efficient ?

    Rise of tactical voting a result of the Internet ?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    TGOHF said:

    Could Lord Miliband still be PM from the other place ?

    He could be PM from the gallery of the House of Commons, just like Mackenzie King in Canada in 1925 (and also 1945)...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2014
    Danny565 said:

    I can't quite understand the tweet. Is Ashcroft confirming that UKIP + the Tories' combined poll share is higher than Miliband's?

    Yes, he did.
    However I'm expecting something like Lab 45, UKIP 35, CON 10 tomorrow.
    In 2010 it was LAB 47, CON 21, LD 15, BNP 7, ED 5, UKIP 4. Combine the BNP+ED+UKIP vote and you get 16, give 10 to UKIP from the Tories and another 10 from the LD and you get 36.

    By the way William Hill is still giving UKIP 16/1 in Doncaster North.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Would Ukip want to decapitate Ed - foils their 5 years of Europhilia = referendum win strategy.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    TGOHF

    Well the Tory vote would be more efficiently distributed. Probably win the number of seats they have now on 29% of the vote.

    Not sure its getting more efficient if UKIP take the Tories out in the marginals.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    We could be facing the bizarre situation in May in which Labour voters vote UKIP tactically in Tory seats and Tory voters voting UKIP tactically in Labour seats.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    For those of a nervous, excitable, irascible or irrational disposition, I recommend looking at random at some of the PB archives on the right, for the period November 2009-May 2010.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    If Ed Miliband loses the election he loses the leadership anyway, if he wins the election and loses his seat doubt if many in Labour would complain
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TGOHF said:

    Could Lord Miliband still be PM from the other place ?

    Yup
    Doubtful. It was seen as an insuperable obstacle to Halifax in 1940. It wouldn't be technically quite impossible, but I can see quite a lot of senior labour folk being a tiny bit lukewarm about fighting for eds rights.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Speedy said:

    We could be facing the bizarre situation in May in which Labour voters vote UKIP tactically in Tory seats and Tory voters voting UKIP tactically in Labour seats.

    Like a purple LDs of 2010 ?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Between 1997 and 2010, Labour lost five million who voted for Blair.

    The Tories only added one million votes in that period.

    The other four million ended up where?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited November 2014
    Speedy said:

    We could be facing the bizarre situation in May in which Labour voters vote UKIP tactically in Tory seats and Tory voters voting UKIP tactically in Labour seats.

    I doubt it very much.

    What would be the point of Tory voters tactically voting for a party whose sole aims seem to be to destroy the Conservative party and put Labour into government?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    HYUFD said:

    If Ed Miliband loses the election he loses the leadership anyway, if he wins the election and loses his seat doubt if many in Labour would complain

    And if he loses the election, he'd be resigning his seat almost immediately to go lecture at a US university, so the voters of Doncaster North may as well kill two birds with one stone.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,960
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    For those of a nervous, excitable, irascible or irrational disposition, I recommend looking at random at some of the PB archives on the right, for the period November 2009-May 2010.

    During the Cleggasm, I remember some Lib Dems talking about Witney being a Lib Dem gain.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Don't you just LOVE the EU - at least UKIP do http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11255493/UK-faces-34bn-bill-for-blackhole-in-EU-budget.html
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Uh oh

    @DPJHodges

    If Ed Miliband loses his seat I'll run down Whitehall dressed as @MSmithsonPB...

    Naked from the ears up.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    chestnut said:

    Between 1997 and 2010, Labour lost five million who voted for Blair.

    The Tories only added one million votes in that period.

    The other four million ended up where?

    Well you know the difference between ignorance and apathy. OT - are the voting intentions higher this time around in the polls than in 2009?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    For those of a nervous, excitable, irascible or irrational disposition, I recommend looking at random at some of the PB archives on the right, for the period November 2009-May 2010.

    During the Cleggasm, I remember some Lib Dems talking about Witney being a Lib Dem gain.
    A fair few Tories seem to think it was. And I wouldn't be surprised if Clegg in his deluded mind agreed. What I don't understand TSE, is if you think Miliband is so useless why do you want to get rid of him? Are you secretly afraid of the power of Ed?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited November 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    For those of a nervous, excitable, irascible or irrational disposition, I recommend looking at random at some of the PB archives on the right, for the period November 2009-May 2010.

    During the Cleggasm, I remember some Lib Dems talking about Witney being a Lib Dem gain.
    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/04/28/how-do-the-old-firm-respond-to-this/

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/04/27/tonights-polls/

    Even better:

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/04/27/could-the-lds-get-most-seats-with-36pc/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,960
    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    For those of a nervous, excitable, irascible or irrational disposition, I recommend looking at random at some of the PB archives on the right, for the period November 2009-May 2010.

    During the Cleggasm, I remember some Lib Dems talking about Witney being a Lib Dem gain.
    A fair few Tories seem to think it was. And I wouldn't be surprised if Clegg in his deluded mind agreed. What I don't understand TSE, is if you think Miliband is so useless why do you want to get rid of him? Are you secretly afraid of the power of Ed?
    Not the sensible Tories.

    I'm afraid of Ed for the country, I think he'd be worse as Prime Minister than he is as Leader of the Opposition.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    dr_spyn said:

    @Carnyx Found an Egg Jim Murphy Facebook community, I am pleased to report that his non support for Palestine may result in some more broken eggs.

    I couldn't possibly comment - definitely not my fight or my pooch therein. But, like his relatively right wing policies (till yesterday, as far as tax is concerned), it may be to do with the demographics of his constituency.

    Of course, Mr Salmond will be blamed (again) for any eggs ...

    In other news, the new Scottish newspaper The National is being printed with twice the print un and seems to be about third best selling in Scotland. Another indication of a sea-change in Scottish politics, and it's not uncritical of the SNP either.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DailyMirror: Ed Balls to move civil jobs from London to regions if Labour regain power
    http://t.co/RtiiiHReqF http://t.co/quJH1mbvrd
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,960
    The other thing to remember, decapitation strategies seldom work.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,960
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    For those of a nervous, excitable, irascible or irrational disposition, I recommend looking at random at some of the PB archives on the right, for the period November 2009-May 2010.

    During the Cleggasm, I remember some Lib Dems talking about Witney being a Lib Dem gain.
    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/04/28/how-do-the-old-firm-respond-to-this/

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/04/27/tonights-polls/

    Even better:

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/04/27/could-the-lds-get-most-seats-with-36pc/
    From a betting perspective, if we do see a Faragasm next year, we should those remembers, these things prove to be all fart and no follow through.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The other thing to remember, decapitation strategies seldom work.

    Depends on the candidate
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,960
    QTWTAIN?

    Is the criticism of Ed Miliband a coded form of anti-Semitism?

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/is-the-criticism-of-ed-miliband-a-coded-form-of-antisemitism-9885745.html
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Carnyx said:

    dr_spyn said:

    @Carnyx Found an Egg Jim Murphy Facebook community, I am pleased to report that his non support for Palestine may result in some more broken eggs.

    I couldn't possibly comment - definitely not my fight or my pooch therein. But, like his relatively right wing policies (till yesterday, as far as tax is concerned), it may be to do with the demographics of his constituency.

    Of course, Mr Salmond will be blamed (again) for any eggs ...

    In other news, the new Scottish newspaper The National is being printed with twice the print un and seems to be about third best selling in Scotland. Another indication of a sea-change in Scottish politics, and it's not uncritical of the SNP either.
    Egg Murphy looks like pro Palestine grouplet, didn't look like a SNP grouplet, though details are sparse. Though smoked Salmond and scrambled eggs might go down a treat.

  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Is there any record of a LOTO losing their seat at a GE
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    O/T - I just listened to the Moral Maze on Radio 4. The topic under discussion was immigration.

    Right at the start, three of the four moral maze team (all educated, metropolitan middle-class, and probably London-based) declared their support for liberal and open immigration. The only detractor was Melanie Phillips.

    Over the course of the programme, Matthew Taylor came out with the choicest phrases. He managed to describe London as a human "utopia" due to its multi-ethnic and multi-cultural composition. He also tried to make a case that nation states, in themselves, were immoral, because they are divisive and prioritise one set of humans over another. He also stated without hesitation that diverse populations are the happiest ones, without providing any evidence (I don't notice people in Devon and Cornwall being unhappy due to their lack of diversity) which elicited a chuckle in the Casino household.

    It's quite incredible the BBC airs programmes like this where the composition of the panel, and expression of views, bears no relation to the majority view of the British public.

    It also made me appreciate (again) some of the more robust and tenacious journalists of the Daily Mail, such as Melanie, who often fight solo on the airwaves against an array of opinion lined up against them.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TGOHF said:

    Speedy said:

    We could be facing the bizarre situation in May in which Labour voters vote UKIP tactically in Tory seats and Tory voters voting UKIP tactically in Labour seats.

    Like a purple LDs of 2010 ?
    Exactly, they are already at pre-2010 LD levels in the nationwide opinion polls and they suck up all the NOTA's just like the LD's did, tactical voting for UKIP would complete the picture of them as the purple LD.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Danny565 Well saves the by-election costs
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    I see Ms Sturgeon is all set to demonstrate how much damage the politics of envy can do to an economy:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-30193791

    I particularly enjoyed the attack on Scotland's very successful grouse-shooting businesses. Quite what other uses she envisages for grouse moors will be amusing to see.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    QTWTAIN?

    Is the criticism of Ed Miliband a coded form of anti-Semitism?

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/is-the-criticism-of-ed-miliband-a-coded-form-of-antisemitism-9885745.html

    Criticise Ed the Dud, and you're an Anti Semite? Smacks of desperation.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    For all the sneering at the 'Thornberry Set', it's worth wondering what it means to see a considerable number of the country's wealthiest set against the Tories. And not just the wealthiest. If Tories can't get a substantial lead amongst A/B voters, how do they win? Presumably by appealing the less well off. But if they don't represent these peoples'economic interests, why will they vote for them. Because although they won't actually do anything more for them than Labour, they won't sneer at the poor's lifestyles either?
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    IOS said:

    UKIP are doing a lot better in the North of England. But it is mainly at the expense of an already established Labour vote. I expect the Tory vote to disappear almost entirely in the north. Not that this will cost them any seats.



    Mmmmmm


    Guido
    Labour are spinning hard that this week’s polls showing the party up to five points ahead prove the Thornberry saga has not cut through to the public. That’s not what one slightly more honest Labour MP told Guido last night:

    “It’s had a big effect. I was knocking on doors this weekend and people were telling me, “I’m not going to vote for you. Ed Miliband doesn’t care about the working classes and the Labour Party don’t care about the working classes.” That’s Thornberry.”

    Take that as you will.......
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Scott_P said:

    @DailyMirror: Ed Balls to move civil jobs from London to regions if Labour regain power
    http://t.co/RtiiiHReqF http://t.co/quJH1mbvrd

    Another vote winner in London.

    Wait until he does the race equality impact assessments.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Moses_ said:

    Is there any record of a LOTO losing their seat at a GE

    Herbert Asquith, Liberal, 1918.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited November 2014
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I see Ms Sturgeon is all set to demonstrate how much damage the politics of envy can do to an economy:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-30193791

    I particularly enjoyed the attack on Scotland's very successful grouse-shooting businesses. Quite what other uses she envisages for grouse moors will be amusing to see.

    Moor tenements? ;-)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,960
    Bloody nats

    SNP MSP Christine Grahame has explained why she would consider standing for the party over the border in Berwick-Upon-Tweed at the next general election.

    She said she believed the area had "much in common" with her Scottish Parliament constituency of Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale.

    Ms Grahame added it would be up to her party's national executive to decide whether to take the idea forward.

    She said it was a "fairly serious proposal" on her part.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-south-scotland-30217248
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    On topic, Ed will win. Decapitation strategies of main party leaders almost never work. His profile and name recognition will be up, and people like to think their local MP could be Prime Minister, and that'll be enough to see him through. Not to mention the fact that Tory and UKIP voters are more mutually exclusive than people tend to think.

    The advantage is that a strong challenge will be a distraction, and will force him to (some degree) personally fight a ground war in Doncaster, when he should be out across the country rallying the troops and the voters.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bloody nats

    SNP MSP Christine Grahame has explained why she would consider standing for the party over the border in Berwick-Upon-Tweed at the next general election.

    She said she believed the area had "much in common" with her Scottish Parliament constituency of Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale.

    Ms Grahame added it would be up to her party's national executive to decide whether to take the idea forward.

    She said it was a "fairly serious proposal" on her part.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-south-scotland-30217248

    Excellent idea. Anne-Marie is deservedly the favourite (and will be a super MP), but a bit of help from the SNP in dividing what's left of the opposition wouldn't come amiss.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    TheWatcher said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    QTWTAIN?

    Is the criticism of Ed Miliband a coded form of anti-Semitism?

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/is-the-criticism-of-ed-miliband-a-coded-form-of-antisemitism-9885745.html

    Criticise Ed the Dud, and you're an Anti Semite? Smacks of desperation.
    It certainly shows up the bias in the Independent and fails to mention the infamous Labour poster of Michael Howard, as Fagin with evil eyes and a hooked nose, when he led the Tory Party. When it comes to anti-semitism Labour certainly has form.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    There was of course Ramsey MacDonald who was PM and lost his seat in 1935 a few months after his transfer of power to Baldwin.
  • GarethofthevaleGarethofthevale Posts: 503
    I think UKIP will do well in Doncaster at the next election but Miliband will be alright. If UKIP were to gain a seat in Doncaster it would more likely be Valley or Central. If Miliband becomes PM and is unpopular, UKIP might have a chance of unseating him in 2020.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Some of us saw this coming months ago

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/17/how-labour-could-win-next-year-without-ed-becoming-pm/
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Moses - Labour votes voted in a Labour police commissioner in Rotherham
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Speedy said:

    Moses_ said:

    Is there any record of a LOTO losing their seat at a GE

    Herbert Asquith, Liberal, 1918.
    Thanks just looked that up.

    Wikapedia...


    The Liberal Party finally split openly during the Maurice Debate in 1918, at which Lloyd George was accused of hoarding manpower in the UK to prevent Haig from launching any fresh offensives (e.g. Passchendaele, 1917), possibly with a view to sending more troops to Palestine or Italy instead, and thus contributing to Allied weakness during the temporarily successful German offensives of spring 1918, in which British casualties were actually heavier than in their own offensives the previous year. Lloyd George survived the debate.[7][8]

    In 1918 Asquith declined an offer of the job of Lord Chancellor, as this would have meant retiring from active politics in the House of Commons. By this time, Asquith had become very unpopular with the public (as Lloyd George was perceived to have "won the war" by displacing him) and, along with most leading Liberals, lost his seat in the 1918 elections, at which the Liberals split into Asquith and Lloyd George factions. Asquith was not opposed by a Coalition candidate; but the local Conservative Association eventually put up a candidate against him, who despite being refused the "Coupon" – the official endorsement given by Lloyd George and Bonar Law to Coalition candidates – defeated Asquith.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bloody nats

    SNP MSP Christine Grahame has explained why she would consider standing for the party over the border in Berwick-Upon-Tweed at the next general election.

    She said she believed the area had "much in common" with her Scottish Parliament constituency of Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale.

    Ms Grahame added it would be up to her party's national executive to decide whether to take the idea forward.

    She said it was a "fairly serious proposal" on her part.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-south-scotland-30217248

    They haven't proclaimed scottish independence yet and they are already planning to annex english territory?
    Will the SNP claim Sheffield as part of an independent scotland too?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    RN Laird shooting?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Smith Commission - proposal for tax raising powers extended in Scotland. Would be like giving alcoholics keys to a drink cabinet. Sturgeon looks likely to push income & corporation tax rates up rather than down.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-30220017

    But problem passed on to next UK government post 2015 election.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Given the results of the last election would is not be easier to unseat the shadow chancellor in a similar way?
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    chestnut said:

    Scott_P said:

    @DailyMirror: Ed Balls to move civil jobs from London to regions if Labour regain power
    http://t.co/RtiiiHReqF http://t.co/quJH1mbvrd

    Another vote winner in London.

    Wait until he does the race equality impact assessments.
    When the BBC moved to Manchester, the proportion of Black people working in British TV fell, despite their numbers increasing over the same period. Now, I'm sure that's not the only reason, but imagine the screams if the Tories had done the same.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Scotland To Get Full Income Tax Powers

    http://news.sky.com/story/1380950/scotland-to-get-full-income-tax-powers


    I wonder how many NO voters didn't want the SNP to have any more powers? They must be pretty annoyed right now, after all they won right?

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Moses_ said:

    Is there any record of a LOTO losing their seat at a GE

    - Balfour, 1906 (very nearly an example of a PM losing his seat as he didn't have to resign the government in 1905).
    - Asquith, 1918 (not sure if he was officially LotO - the party position then was very fluid). Asquith lost his seat again in 1924, though the Liberals were the third party in the 1923-4 parliament (if not by much).
    - Gladstone, 1868 (though subsequently returned in a different constituency at a time when not all seats were contested on the same day; Gladstone subsequently became PM after the election).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Best UKIP prospect in South Yorks is Rother Valley.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    MarkHopkins said:


    Scotland To Get Full Income Tax Powers

    http://news.sky.com/story/1380950/scotland-to-get-full-income-tax-powers


    I wonder how many NO voters didn't want the SNP to have any more powers? They must be pretty annoyed right now, after all they won right?

    I think it was the commitment to more powers that saw the NO side home. Most Scots want a lot more powers devolved. Most Scots know there isn't any serious opposition to the SNP up there. They must be prepared.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited November 2014
    david_herdson said:

    Moses_ said:

    Is there any record of a LOTO losing their seat at a GE

    - Balfour, 1906 (very nearly an example of a PM losing his seat as he didn't have to resign the government in 1905).
    - Asquith, 1918 (not sure if he was officially LotO - the party position then was very fluid). Asquith lost his seat again in 1924, though the Liberals were the third party in the 1923-4 parliament (if not by much).
    - Gladstone, 1868 (though subsequently returned in a different constituency at a time when not all seats were contested on the same day; Gladstone subsequently became PM after the election).
    Thanks !

    Now that would be a really interesting bet ...


    The chances of both the LOTO and the SCOE losing their seats at a GE. And the triple would be Labour still winning the election with most seats.

    8-)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @pppolitics: Betting on Ed Miliband's constituency Doncaster North available here: http://t.co/lSp5MM5ZE2 #votetorygetlabour
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Where does this fit in with transparency, and devolving power from the centre?
    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/nov/26/theresa-may-accused-delaying-immigration-reports
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    dr spyn SNP policy is to cut corporation tax

    Mark Hopkins They voted No after the 'vow' had been made
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    MarkHopkins said:


    Scotland To Get Full Income Tax Powers

    http://news.sky.com/story/1380950/scotland-to-get-full-income-tax-powers


    I wonder how many NO voters didn't want the SNP to have any more powers? They must be pretty annoyed right now, after all they won right?

    What does this mean for England?



  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Casino_Royale said:

    On topic, Ed will win. Decapitation strategies of main party leaders almost never work. His profile and name recognition will be up, and people like to think their local MP could be Prime Minister, and that'll be enough to see him through. Not to mention the fact that Tory and UKIP voters are more mutually exclusive than people tend to think.

    The advantage is that a strong challenge will be a distraction, and will force him to (some degree) personally fight a ground war in Doncaster, when he should be out across the country rallying the troops and the voters.

    Ed spending time in Doncaster may actually benefit the campaign elsewhere. He is less popular than his party, and the labour polling improves when Ed keeps quiet.

    I am not kidding!
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Smarmeron said:

    Where does this fit in with transparency, and devolving power from the centre?
    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/nov/26/theresa-may-accused-delaying-immigration-reports

    No idea.... in the same file as Chilcott?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    On topic, Ed will win. Decapitation strategies of main party leaders almost never work. His profile and name recognition will be up, and people like to think their local MP could be Prime Minister, and that'll be enough to see him through. Not to mention the fact that Tory and UKIP voters are more mutually exclusive than people tend to think.

    The advantage is that a strong challenge will be a distraction, and will force him to (some degree) personally fight a ground war in Doncaster, when he should be out across the country rallying the troops and the voters.

    Ed spending time in Doncaster may actually benefit the campaign elsewhere. He is less popular than his party, and the labour polling improves when Ed keeps quiet.

    I am not kidding!
    Lol! You could be right :-)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    Doncaster poll MUST be an outlier :)
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited November 2014
    Casino_Royale said:

    On topic, Ed will win. Decapitation strategies of main party leaders almost never work. His profile and name recognition will be up, and people like to think their local MP could be Prime Minister, and that'll be enough to see him through. Not to mention the fact that Tory and UKIP voters are more mutually exclusive than people tend to think.

    The advantage is that a strong challenge will be a distraction, and will force him to (some degree) personally fight a ground war in Doncaster, when he should be out across the country rallying the troops and the voters.

    True of course. The best they can then do for this country is to look to unseat the other ED now given the small majority held there as anything is possible. I suspect our prospective leader in 2015 may be hoping for the same thing.

    Balls lost his seat? Oh dear what a shame, never mind.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Ed would have to be on less than 40% to be in serious trouble which seems a bit unlikely given that he polled 47% in 2010.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HYUFD said:

    They voted No after the 'vow' had been made

    They could hardly vote No before the 'vow' had been made...
This discussion has been closed.