For those of a nervous, excitable, irascible or irrational disposition, I recommend looking at random at some of the PB archives on the right, for the period November 2009-May 2010.
During the Cleggasm, I remember some Lib Dems talking about Witney being a Lib Dem gain.
For those of a nervous, excitable, irascible or irrational disposition, I recommend looking at random at some of the PB archives on the right, for the period November 2009-May 2010.
During the Cleggasm, I remember some Lib Dems talking about Witney being a Lib Dem gain.
On topic, Ed will win. Decapitation strategies of main party leaders almost never work. His profile and name recognition will be up, and people like to think their local MP could be Prime Minister, and that'll be enough to see him through. Not to mention the fact that Tory and UKIP voters are more mutually exclusive than people tend to think.
The advantage is that a strong challenge will be a distraction, and will force him to (some degree) personally fight a ground war in Doncaster, when he should be out across the country rallying the troops and the voters.
Decapitation strategies tend not to work when they're seen as such i.e. a party looking to play games in which the local electorate have to take on the role of their pawns. It's a different matter if the challenge to the prominent member is an organic one that's genuinely grown within the constituency. In that case, UKIP's best option would be to ensure their candidate was well funded and supported but without making anything of it on a larger stage. Flagging it up to the national press, for example, that Miliband was a target would - as you rightly say - be counterproductive.
For those of a nervous, excitable, irascible or irrational disposition, I recommend looking at random at some of the PB archives on the right, for the period November 2009-May 2010.
During the Cleggasm, I remember some Lib Dems talking about Witney being a Lib Dem gain.
For those of a nervous, excitable, irascible or irrational disposition, I recommend looking at random at some of the PB archives on the right, for the period November 2009-May 2010.
During the Cleggasm, I remember some Lib Dems talking about Witney being a Lib Dem gain.
For those of a nervous, excitable, irascible or irrational disposition, I recommend looking at random at some of the PB archives on the right, for the period November 2009-May 2010.
During the Cleggasm, I remember some Lib Dems talking about Witney being a Lib Dem gain.
For those of a nervous, excitable, irascible or irrational disposition, I recommend looking at random at some of the PB archives on the right, for the period November 2009-May 2010.
During the Cleggasm, I remember some Lib Dems talking about Witney being a Lib Dem gain.
Re: Doncaster north… The first part of the Ashcroft tweet isn’t surprising at all – Sophie Brodie polled 21% for the Conservatives in 2010, compared with 4.3% for UKIP’s Liz Andrews, so on a uniform swing it’s no surprise that UKIP are second. But a big two party leader being defeated in their own seat? It hasn’t happened since Arthur Henderson (Labour) lost Burnley in the Tory landslide in 1931.
A couple of things jump out from the 2010 result. Firstly, Miliband took 47.3% of the vote in 2010, so in order to be vulnerable to tactical voting, he must by definition still be under 50% and probably a few points below it. So becoming Labour leader hasn’t helped him outperform the party, in fact the opposite seems to be the case. He may well even be polling a lower vote share than at the last election.
Secondly, the BNP and English Democrats between them managed a 12% share in 2010. UKIP seems to have been effective at taking votes from far-right parties, so it might have done so here. David Herdson posted about this here on PB six months ago, along with some local factors which could be relevant.
It’s also worth noting that Tory voters aren’t known for voting tactically. Would the opportunity to decapitate Labour change that? We might not know until May, but tomorrow we’ll at least have some idea how much tactical voting would be needed.
I particularly enjoyed the attack on Scotland's very successful grouse-shooting businesses. Quite what other uses she envisages for grouse moors will be amusing to see.
Ah! The Grice, Wot! Shoot Em! The Glorious 12th Wot! And the eagles, buzzards, falcons, kestrels at any other time Wot! Great Sport!
Of course the Grice Shoot'n came in to being once the wool market collapsed and all the cheviots ended up as stew. And what was there before the Cheviots? Oh yes, people, subsistence farming.
They were kept in servitude to maintain the lairds in good standing in the clubs and brothels of London.
The rights and wrongs of the Clearances are, and have been, disputed for long enough.
It could be seen as the cause and effect of the retaliation after the 1745 rebellion which extended well into the 19th century.
But, back to the grouse. Unless you have access to a grouse shoot by knowing the land owner, it will cost well over £2000 a day, plus the cost of the travel, clothes, guns, cartridges, hire of keeper and dogs and you will only get to keep a brace. The rest will be going to the hotel and restaurant trade.
And the real laugh, they still make a massive financial loss but give a great deal of "face" to the owner, which could of course be a reason for being seen as very successful.
For those of a nervous, excitable, irascible or irrational disposition, I recommend looking at random at some of the PB archives on the right, for the period November 2009-May 2010.
During the Cleggasm, I remember some Lib Dems talking about Witney being a Lib Dem gain.
So, let me get this right: Ed loses his seat while Labour win the election - that gives us Prime Minister Harriet Harman? At least until the Labour Conference in September - when they vote for a new Prime Minister??
So there exists the possibility, however faint, that Labour could win a majority but its leader lose his seat at the same time. An amusing possibility, and it would be interesting to see how they react, especially as a Labour government not led by Miliband seems to be what people would prefer, and would he have the strength to maintain leadership and get someone else to stand down for him to win and get back in the Commons and so on.
How long has it been that an entrenched party insider gifted a safe seat after years in the back offices has actually lost though? I know Balls came close.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 1m1 minute ago Latest ComRes/itv poll of marginals suggests that LAB still strong Con 31% (+1) Lab 39% (-2) LD 7% (+1) UKIP 18% (+1)
The fine print of Nicola's proposed reform of Scots inheritance law is a ticking time-bomb under the country's landed nobility. One wonders what the owner of the Balmoral estate thinks of this.
- "... the simple logic of the Scottish Government's policy here... extending legal rights to land is more than just a technicality. It strikes at the heart of the legal system of succession which is instrumental in upholding and maintaining landownership in its current form."
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 1m1 minute ago Latest ComRes/itv poll of marginals suggests that LAB still strong Con 31% (+1) Lab 39% (-2) LD 7% (+1) UKIP 18% (+1)
But getting weaker.
Wasn't Kinnock some 20 points or so ahead etc etc but still then lost?
I'm trying hard to think of a downside for England of having ideologically-driven lefty loons driving wealth out of Scotland into England, and leaving Scotland to pay its own bills out of what's left, but I'm struggling.
SNP MSP Christine Grahame has explained why she would consider standing for the party over the border in Berwick-Upon-Tweed at the next general election.
She said she believed the area had "much in common" with her Scottish Parliament constituency of Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale.
Ms Grahame added it would be up to her party's national executive to decide whether to take the idea forward.
She said it was a "fairly serious proposal" on her part.
While it seems unlikely Ed Miliband will lose his Doncaster seat in 2015 it just adds to the continuing negative narrative that seems to be building day by day, and with 6 months to go that is a lot of days
Smith Commission - proposal for tax raising powers extended in Scotland. Would be like giving alcoholics keys to a drink cabinet. Sturgeon looks likely to push income & corporation tax rates up rather than down.
Shadsy cuts his price yet again on the SNP getting more MPs than the struggling SLABbers:
Ladbrokes - Most Scottish seats?
SNP 1/2 (from EVS two days ago) Lab 6/4 (from 8/11 two days ago) UKIP 200/1 Con 200/1
(Just a tiny detail, but is is extremely rare for Shadsy to price no-hopers at longer that 100/1. The Scottish Conservative brand is so fatally crippled that even the normal floor is simply too high.)
While it seems unlikely Ed Miliband will lose his Doncaster seat in 2015 it just adds to the continuing negative narrative that seems to be building day by day, and with 6 months to go that is a lot of days
True enough, but to win the Tories need to improve their polling further, not just have Labour decline, and particularly where it counts, that isn't happening it would seem.
At least 2015 might end up proving that people vote for a party, not a PM, and diminish the strength of party leaders, for good and ill.
I do sometimes wonder if the Labour Party is just a great big joke that has yet to be rumbled. They can't seriously intend to go into a general election with that millstone hanging around their neck?
So, let me get this right: Ed loses his seat while Labour win the election - that gives us Prime Minister Harriet Harman? At least until the Labour Conference in September - when they vote for a new Prime Minister??
No, as I've said the Westminster model convention is that he would remain as PM outside of the Commons [and get one bite at the cherry to get back in via a by-election].
So, let me get this right: Ed loses his seat while Labour win the election - that gives us Prime Minister Harriet Harman? At least until the Labour Conference in September - when they vote for a new Prime Minister??
So, let me get this right: Ed loses his seat while Labour win the election - that gives us Prime Minister Harriet Harman? At least until the Labour Conference in September - when they vote for a new Prime Minister??
No, as I've said the Westminster model convention is that he would remain as PM outside of the Commons [and get one bite at the cherry to get back in via a by-election].
That is the convention, but could there not be an adjustment as a result of his weakness as a result? That is, even though technically he could be PM and get back in via a by-election, would the party want him back, having him just be humiliated even as they as a group triumphed? Perhaps he would not bother, or be convinced not to bother.
So, let me get this right: Ed loses his seat while Labour win the election - that gives us Prime Minister Harriet Harman? At least until the Labour Conference in September - when they vote for a new Prime Minister??
So, let me get this right: Ed loses his seat while Labour win the election - that gives us Prime Minister Harriet Harman? At least until the Labour Conference in September - when they vote for a new Prime Minister??
No, as I've said the Westminster model convention is that he would remain as PM outside of the Commons [and get one bite at the cherry to get back in via a by-election].
Riiiiiiight...... Wouldn't be farcical at all then.
PMQ's would be fun. LotO could shout them out a Westminster window, and Ed could stand on Palace Green, shouting his answers back.....
So, let me get this right: Ed loses his seat while Labour win the election - that gives us Prime Minister Harriet Harman? At least until the Labour Conference in September - when they vote for a new Prime Minister??
So, let me get this right: Ed loses his seat while Labour win the election - that gives us Prime Minister Harriet Harman? At least until the Labour Conference in September - when they vote for a new Prime Minister??
No, as I've said the Westminster model convention is that he would remain as PM outside of the Commons [and get one bite at the cherry to get back in via a by-election].
That is the convention, but could there not be an adjustment as a result of his weakness as a result? That is, even though technically he could be PM and get back in via a by-election, would the party want him back, having him just be humiliated even as they as a group triumphed? Perhaps he would not bother, or be convinced not to bother.
It's not the party, but HM Queen who would give him his commission... [The Labour party rules make it virtually impossible to depose a sitting PM, in any case]
I do sometimes wonder if the Labour Party is just a great big joke that has yet to be rumbled. They can't seriously intend to go into a general election with that millstone hanging around their neck?
Of course, in the real world all the parties have signed up to it, given that this is a cross-party agreement.
So, let me get this right: Ed loses his seat while Labour win the election - that gives us Prime Minister Harriet Harman? At least until the Labour Conference in September - when they vote for a new Prime Minister??
So, let me get this right: Ed loses his seat while Labour win the election - that gives us Prime Minister Harriet Harman? At least until the Labour Conference in September - when they vote for a new Prime Minister??
No, as I've said the Westminster model convention is that he would remain as PM outside of the Commons [and get one bite at the cherry to get back in via a by-election].
That is the convention, but could there not be an adjustment as a result of his weakness as a result? That is, even though technically he could be PM and get back in via a by-election, would the party want him back, having him just be humiliated even as they as a group triumphed? Perhaps he would not bother, or be convinced not to bother.
It's not the party, but HM Queen who would give him his commission... [The Labour party rules make it virtually impossible to depose a sitting PM, in any case]
Yes I know she would give him his commission, but as the idea is pretty fixed that the PM will sit in the Commons, an idea that was not fixed in convention until it was tested whether the alternative would now be acceptable, and he would get another not of the cherry to get back in via a by-election as you put it. If his own party quietly makes it known they don't see the benefit of that, that in effect that in the circumstances they found themselves in they think a new leader will be needed, and he were to decide not to try to get back in the Commons, wouldn't the convention have been amended yet further, and would the Queen be advised to appoint someone else until it was clear who would best be able to command a majority, that is to say whoever Labour ended up picking? That's how these conventions develop after all, a new situation demanding a new approach or what is technically permissable running against what has been deemed politically acceptable.
Whatever the Labour party rules, since we are merely speaking of a hypothetical and unlikely scenario, if they simply refused to have anyone stand down so Ed could fight a by-election, and made that be known somehow right away, it could well be Ed was never granted a commission by the Queen - she doesn't have to appoint someone the next day or anything - so he would not have to be formally deposed as PM as he would never have been PM.
So, let me get this right: Ed loses his seat while Labour win the election - that gives us Prime Minister Harriet Harman? At least until the Labour Conference in September - when they vote for a new Prime Minister??
So, let me get this right: Ed loses his seat while Labour win the election - that gives us Prime Minister Harriet Harman? At least until the Labour Conference in September - when they vote for a new Prime Minister??
No, as I've said the Westminster model convention is that he would remain as PM outside of the Commons [and get one bite at the cherry to get back in via a by-election].
Riiiiiiight...... Wouldn't be farcical at all then.
PMQ's would be fun. LotO could shout them out a Westminster window, and Ed could stand on Palace Green, shouting his answers back.....
Don't think that's possible. As I recollect Parliament outlawed protests on Palace or Parliament green .
He could of course use video conferencing or as a last resort semaphore
It is the perception by the general public who are not interested in politics at present but see the news headlines daily about Ed Miliband that will have an increasing negative influence for him and is bound to effect their voting intention in the polling booths. Also the real test will become more apparent when we turn into 2015 and to that end the polls at present are most unlikely to be even near May 2015 result. 'A week is a long time in politics '
The signs have been there all year for those prepared to look at things with an open mind...
This from January
"If Doncaster North is Miliband-land, it doesn’t feel much like it. The Labour vote here collapsed from 34,000 in 1992 to 19,000 in 2010. In Doncaster's three seats, Labour has lost 40,000 votes since 1992.
Graham is nearing retirement age and has “always been Labour”. No longer. “I don't vote for them any more – I think they've let us down.” All politicians “p*ss in the same pot – they’re all being tarred now by the same brush because they've been fiddling bucks. They’re just getting an 11 per cent pay rise? I’ve had a four per cent pay rise in five years and I work 55 hours a week.”
In this year’s European elections, Graham will cast his ballot for Ukip. “I’m not Conservative – I couldn’t vote Conservative – and they’re the only party left.” Anti-Tory feeling – a quarter of all Northerners don’t know anyone who votes Conservatives – has extended to the Liberal Democrats as a result of the Coalition and cuts. This leaves Ukip ready to pounce on those who are fed up with Labour."
I do sometimes wonder if the Labour Party is just a great big joke that has yet to be rumbled. They can't seriously intend to go into a general election with that millstone hanging around their neck?
Of course, in the real world all the parties have signed up to it, given that this is a cross-party agreement.
Labour didn't want a change to MPs voting rights, the Tories did but didn't get their way. This will be rightly pinned on to the Labour Party.
So, let me get this right: Ed loses his seat while Labour win the election - that gives us Prime Minister Harriet Harman? At least until the Labour Conference in September - when they vote for a new Prime Minister??
So, let me get this right: Ed loses his seat while Labour win the election - that gives us Prime Minister Harriet Harman? At least until the Labour Conference in September - when they vote for a new Prime Minister??
No, as I've said the Westminster model convention is that he would remain as PM outside of the Commons [and get one bite at the cherry to get back in via a by-election].
Riiiiiiight...... Wouldn't be farcical at all then.
PMQ's would be fun. LotO could shout them out a Westminster window, and Ed could stand on Palace Green, shouting his answers back.....
Of course if Murphy wins the SLab leadership, a similar scenario would obtain at Holyrood FMQs with him as the LotO (though I'm sure the MSM would do their best to give Jim a platform).
I'm trying hard to think of a downside for England of having ideologically-driven lefty loons driving wealth out of Scotland into England, and leaving Scotland to pay its own bills out of what's left, but I'm struggling.
An influx of immigrants antagonising the English Yeomanry?
Evening all, although decapitation campaigns never work as we saw with the LibDem efforts against top Tories in 2005 (who all substantially increased their majorities), IF Ed loses his Doncaster seat and IF Labour wins the GE, it would be incredibly funny if not a single Labour MP offered to retire to make way for Ed in a by-election or if one could be found, if Ed then duly lost the by-election.
So, let me get this right: Ed loses his seat while Labour win the election - that gives us Prime Minister Harriet Harman? At least until the Labour Conference in September - when they vote for a new Prime Minister??
No, as I've said the Westminster model convention is that he would remain as PM outside of the Commons [and get one bite at the cherry to get back in via a by-election].
He wouldn't be 'remaining as PM' though. He'd have to be appointed as PM while outside the Commons, which I'm not sure is something the country, parliament or his party would accept. I'd also be wary about putting too much weight on conventions that are based either outside Britain or from 50 years and more ago.
In such circumstances, a great deal would depend on the political strength of the individual in question. Miliband's is so weak that providing the Labour shadow cabinet could unite around an individual, they could mount an effective palace coup, which would have wide support and could easily be ratified by the NEC. After all, as you say yourself, HMQ gives her commission to someone to form a government based on who is most likely to be able to do so. There is no need for that person to be a party leader and on rare occasions in the past, they have not been.
So, let me get this right: Ed loses his seat while Labour win the election - that gives us Prime Minister Harriet Harman? At least until the Labour Conference in September - when they vote for a new Prime Minister??
No, as I've said the Westminster model convention is that he would remain as PM outside of the Commons [and get one bite at the cherry to get back in via a by-election].
Most likely, surely, is that Ed will finally twig he's not wanted as Labour leader and will resign.
What is your prediction for what will happen in Scotland in May?
Don't know. Don't care.
What I do predict is that I will now see my country regaining her sovereignty within my lifetime. I have never been able to say that before. And boy oh boy oh boy, it feels good! Really, really good!
So, let me get this right: Ed loses his seat while Labour win the election - that gives us Prime Minister Harriet Harman? At least until the Labour Conference in September - when they vote for a new Prime Minister??
So, let me get this right: Ed loses his seat while Labour win the election - that gives us Prime Minister Harriet Harman? At least until the Labour Conference in September - when they vote for a new Prime Minister??
No, as I've said the Westminster model convention is that he would remain as PM outside of the Commons [and get one bite at the cherry to get back in via a by-election].
Riiiiiiight...... Wouldn't be farcical at all then.
PMQ's would be fun. LotO could shout them out a Westminster window, and Ed could stand on Palace Green, shouting his answers back.....
Don't think that's possible. As I recollect Parliament outlawed protests on Palace or Parliament green .
He could of course use video conferencing or as a last resort semaphore
The signs have been there all year for those prepared to look at things with an open mind...
This from January
"If Doncaster North is Miliband-land, it doesn’t feel much like it. The Labour vote here collapsed from 34,000 in 1992 to 19,000 in 2010. In Doncaster's three seats, Labour has lost 40,000 votes since 1992.
Graham is nearing retirement age and has “always been Labour”. No longer. “I don't vote for them any more – I think they've let us down.” All politicians “p*ss in the same pot – they’re all being tarred now by the same brush because they've been fiddling bucks. They’re just getting an 11 per cent pay rise? I’ve had a four per cent pay rise in five years and I work 55 hours a week.”
In this year’s European elections, Graham will cast his ballot for Ukip. “I’m not Conservative – I couldn’t vote Conservative – and they’re the only party left.” Anti-Tory feeling – a quarter of all Northerners don’t know anyone who votes Conservatives – has extended to the Liberal Democrats as a result of the Coalition and cuts. This leaves Ukip ready to pounce on those who are fed up with Labour."
What is your prediction for what will happen in Scotland in May?
Don't know. Don't care.
What I do predict is that I will now see my country regaining her sovereignty within my lifetime. I have never been able to say that before. And boy oh boy oh boy, it feels good! Really, really good!
Stuart, Sweden gained its independence centuries ago
RichardN Albeit the SNP are committed to cutting corporation tax
Given where oil prices are, in reality that might not be possible if Scotland were independent. What was the basis for the SNP's economic prospectus for iScotland? £110 a barrel, wasn't it?
"Britain's benefits system is being abused to fund terrorism, a senior police officer has warned.
Terri Nicholson, from the Metropolitan Police’s counter-terrorism command unit, said that taxpayers’ money was being claimed fraudulently and used by terrorists in countries such as Iraq and Syria.
She said there had been “a number of cases” recently of terrorists making fraudulent student loan claims to fund their activities"
Evening all, although decapitation campaigns never work as we saw with the LibDem efforts against top Tories in 2005 (who all substantially increased their majorities), IF Ed loses his Doncaster seat and IF Labour wins the GE, it would be incredibly funny if not a single Labour MP offered to retire to make way for Ed in a by-election or if one could be found, if Ed then duly lost the by-election.
Not quite true as the Lib Dems did win Westmorland in 2005
"Home Secretary Theresa May buried criticism of Britain’s asylum system by delaying and manipulating the publication of independent inspection reports, the head of the Government’s immigration watchdog has warned MPs.
In a letter to the Public Accounts Committee, John Vine reveals that the Home Secretary is currently sitting on five reports believed to be critical of the Government, one of which was completed five months ago.
Mr Vine, the chief inspector of borders and immigration, warns the MPs that the failure to publish his reports in a “timely” manner is “reducing their impact” and has “compromised” the independence of his role.
His letter, which comes just months after he announced he was stepping down early, raises serious questions about the extent to which Ms May’s is attempting to control critical stories about immigration in the run up to the election. It will also fuel suspicions that the Tories are unwilling to allow the publication of critical reports"
What is your prediction for what will happen in Scotland in May?
Don't know. Don't care.
What I do predict is that I will now see my country regaining her sovereignty within my lifetime. I have never been able to say that before. And boy oh boy oh boy, it feels good! Really, really good!
Evening all, although decapitation campaigns never work as we saw with the LibDem efforts against top Tories in 2005 (who all substantially increased their majorities), IF Ed loses his Doncaster seat and IF Labour wins the GE, it would be incredibly funny if not a single Labour MP offered to retire to make way for Ed in a by-election or if one could be found, if Ed then duly lost the by-election.
Not quite true as the Lib Dems did win Westmorland in 2005
Mark I don't remember Tim Collins being a decapitation target. On the other hand Oliver Letwin, Michael Howard, Theresa May and several others were express targets and saw a leap in their majorities.
So, let me get this right: Ed loses his seat while Labour win the election - that gives us Prime Minister Harriet Harman? At least until the Labour Conference in September - when they vote for a new Prime Minister??
No, as I've said the Westminster model convention is that he would remain as PM outside of the Commons [and get one bite at the cherry to get back in via a by-election].
Most likely, surely, is that Ed will finally twig he's not wanted as Labour leader and will resign.
I really wish the polls would get out of this horrible limbo, with numbers which are nowhere near good enough for Labour to win, yet also not quite bad enough to finally force Ed to go. If Labour fall decisively behind in the polls by Xmas, I still think Ed might decide to quit himself.
What is your prediction for what will happen in Scotland in May?
Don't know. Don't care.
What I do predict is that I will now see my country regaining her sovereignty within my lifetime. I have never been able to say that before. And boy oh boy oh boy, it feels good! Really, really good!
Yes you have an outstanding record on Scottish voting intention.
I do sometimes wonder if the Labour Party is just a great big joke that has yet to be rumbled. They can't seriously intend to go into a general election with that millstone hanging around their neck?
Of course, in the real world all the parties have signed up to it, given that this is a cross-party agreement.
Labour didn't want a change to MPs voting rights, the Tories did but didn't get their way. This will be rightly pinned on to the Labour Party.
All the parties have agreed all UK MPs will get to vote on the UK budget. It's hardly revolutionary. If the Tories did not like it they could have blocked it.
Evening all, although decapitation campaigns never work as we saw with the LibDem efforts against top Tories in 2005 (who all substantially increased their majorities), IF Ed loses his Doncaster seat and IF Labour wins the GE, it would be incredibly funny if not a single Labour MP offered to retire to make way for Ed in a by-election or if one could be found, if Ed then duly lost the by-election.
Not quite true as the Lib Dems did win Westmorland in 2005
Mark I don't remember Tim Collins being a decapitation target. On the other hand Oliver Letwin, Michael Howard, Theresa May and several others were express targets and saw a leap in their majorities.
Your memory is as bad as your forecasting , Collins was one of the 5 targets .
So, let me get this right: Ed loses his seat while Labour win the election - that gives us Prime Minister Harriet Harman? At least until the Labour Conference in September - when they vote for a new Prime Minister??
No, as I've said the Westminster model convention is that he would remain as PM outside of the Commons [and get one bite at the cherry to get back in via a by-election].
Most likely, surely, is that Ed will finally twig he's not wanted as Labour leader and will resign.
I really wish the polls would get out of this horrible limbo, with numbers which are nowhere near good enough for Labour to win, yet also not quite bad enough to finally force Ed to go. If Labour fall decisively behind in the polls by Xmas, I still think Ed might decide to quit himself.
I used to think that. But recent events indicate he is a tone deaf moron with no self-awareness. He'll cling, Brown-like to his position, incapable of understanding the damage he is doing.
Comments
I'm on Safari. Am I doing something wrong? Is it the browser, or are the comments no longer available?
@FrankBooth & @HYUFD
But No was going to win anyway (one panicky poll aside), and most of those were going to vote NO before any vow.
How many of those don't want SNP to get carried away?
However if they score 35% in Doncaster North, what about other seats in the area?
However, to get an idea of the hysteria, the articles suffice!
Comfortable treble on the two Madrids plus Juve.
This is an interesting one too: http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/05/15/so-is-it-going-to-be-a-miliband/#vanilla-comments
Right, chores before bedtime. Goodnight all.
*takes cover ready for incoming *
The old ones are always the worse
I'll get me own coat
A couple of things jump out from the 2010 result. Firstly, Miliband took 47.3% of the vote in 2010, so in order to be vulnerable to tactical voting, he must by definition still be under 50% and probably a few points below it. So becoming Labour leader hasn’t helped him outperform the party, in fact the opposite seems to be the case. He may well even be polling a lower vote share than at the last election.
Secondly, the BNP and English Democrats between them managed a 12% share in 2010. UKIP seems to have been effective at taking votes from far-right parties, so it might have done so here. David Herdson posted about this here on PB six months ago, along with some local factors which could be relevant.
It’s also worth noting that Tory voters aren’t known for voting tactically. Would the opportunity to decapitate Labour change that? We might not know until May, but tomorrow we’ll at least have some idea how much tactical voting would be needed.
http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2014/11/marginals-update-plus-doncaster-north.html
Lab 1/50 (PP)
UKIP 16/1 (Hills)
Con 50/1
100 bar
Of course the Grice Shoot'n came in to being once the wool market collapsed and all the cheviots ended up as stew. And what was there before the Cheviots? Oh yes, people, subsistence farming.
They were kept in servitude to maintain the lairds in good standing in the clubs and brothels of London.
The rights and wrongs of the Clearances are, and have been, disputed for long enough.
It could be seen as the cause and effect of the retaliation after the 1745 rebellion which extended well into the 19th century.
But, back to the grouse. Unless you have access to a grouse shoot by knowing the land owner, it will cost well over £2000 a day, plus the cost of the travel, clothes, guns, cartridges, hire of keeper and dogs and you will only get to keep a brace. The rest will be going to the hotel and restaurant trade.
And the real laugh, they still make a massive financial loss but give a great deal of "face" to the owner, which could of course be a reason for being seen as very successful.
What happens to the Labour leadership rulebook if the party scrapes a majority, but Ed Miliband is unseated in Doncaster North?
Fun times.
Daily Telegraph
Scottish MPs 'to vote on English taxes' after devolution deal
The parties reach a deal to transfer a swathe of new tax and spending powers to the Scottish Parliament but Labour insiders say
"Scottish MPs will retain full voting rights on Westminster Budgets"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11256771/Scottish-MPs-to-vote-on-English-taxes-after-devolution-deal.html
I forecast a riot.
The SNP are now FAV for East Dunbartonshire at Paddy Power. I got on when we were at 80/1 in May. Made two subsequent punts at 33/1. Now 5/4.
East Dunbartonshire - Result 2010
LD (Jo Swinson) 18,551
Lab 16,367
Con 7,431
SNP 5,054
UKIP 545
Current PP prices:
SNP 5/4
Lab 6/4
LD 9/4
100 bar
How long has it been that an entrenched party insider gifted a safe seat after years in the back offices has actually lost though? I know Balls came close.
- "... the simple logic of the Scottish Government's policy here... extending legal rights to land is more than just a technicality. It strikes at the heart of the legal system of succession which is instrumental in upholding and maintaining landownership in its current form."
http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.se/2014/11/the-buggers-are-out-to-get-us.html
They have been brushed aside with their objections to Scotland having income tax control, and there is no way that England will put up with them.
Not that I am aware of., However, Paddy Power and Unibet have a "PM after GE" market:
Miliband 4/5
Cameron EVS
Johnson 9/1
May 15/1
Cooper 16/1
33 bar
So, the best-priced LAB contender after Miliband is Yvette Cooper.
Ladbrokes - Most Scottish seats?
SNP 1/2 (from EVS two days ago)
Lab 6/4 (from 8/11 two days ago)
UKIP 200/1
Con 200/1
(Just a tiny detail, but is is extremely rare for Shadsy to price no-hopers at longer that 100/1. The Scottish Conservative brand is so fatally crippled that even the normal floor is simply too high.)
At least 2015 might end up proving that people vote for a party, not a PM, and diminish the strength of party leaders, for good and ill.
Interesting take on it here
http://www.scottishreview.net/KennethRoy190.shtml
@Mr_Eugenides: Hilariously, since Monday The National has quietly added Shetland to the map of Scotland on its masthead. Mustn’t forget the oil!
@JohnRentoul: "I'd like to see tax at the lowest levels possible... I didn’t go into politics to tax people" @ChukaUmunna LBC https://t.co/8cDoVFkSsp
Explicitly campaigning against "pointing at things and taxing them"
PMQ's would be fun. LotO could shout them out a Westminster window, and Ed could stand on Palace Green, shouting his answers back.....
[The Labour party rules make it virtually impossible to depose a sitting PM, in any case]
Whatever the Labour party rules, since we are merely speaking of a hypothetical and unlikely scenario, if they simply refused to have anyone stand down so Ed could fight a by-election, and made that be known somehow right away, it could well be Ed was never granted a commission by the Queen - she doesn't have to appoint someone the next day or anything - so he would not have to be formally deposed as PM as he would never have been PM.
He could of course use video conferencing or as a last resort semaphore
What is your prediction for what will happen in Scotland in May?
This from January
"If Doncaster North is Miliband-land, it doesn’t feel much like it. The Labour vote here collapsed from 34,000 in 1992 to 19,000 in 2010. In Doncaster's three seats, Labour has lost 40,000 votes since 1992.
Graham is nearing retirement age and has “always been Labour”. No longer. “I don't vote for them any more – I think they've let us down.” All politicians “p*ss in the same pot – they’re all being tarred now by the same brush because they've been fiddling bucks. They’re just getting an 11 per cent pay rise? I’ve had a four per cent pay rise in five years and I work 55 hours a week.”
In this year’s European elections, Graham will cast his ballot for Ukip. “I’m not Conservative – I couldn’t vote Conservative – and they’re the only party left.” Anti-Tory feeling – a quarter of all Northerners don’t know anyone who votes Conservatives – has extended to the Liberal Democrats as a result of the Coalition and cuts. This leaves Ukip ready to pounce on those who are fed up with Labour."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timwigmore/100254439/why-labour-should-be-terrified-of-ukip-2/
@Sun_Politics
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories take one point lead, Lib Dems drop to fifth: CON 33%, LAB 32%, LD 6%, UKIP 16%, GRN 7%
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories take one point lead, Lib Dems drop to fifth: CON 33%, LAB 32%, LD 6%, UKIP 16%, GRN 7%
CON - 33% (+1)
LAB - 32% (-1)
UKIP - 16% (-)
GRN - 7% (+1)
LDEM - 6% (-1)
In such circumstances, a great deal would depend on the political strength of the individual in question. Miliband's is so weak that providing the Labour shadow cabinet could unite around an individual, they could mount an effective palace coup, which would have wide support and could easily be ratified by the NEC. After all, as you say yourself, HMQ gives her commission to someone to form a government based on who is most likely to be able to do so. There is no need for that person to be a party leader and on rare occasions in the past, they have not been.
I'm going to be generous, and extend the early settlement discount offer until the 31st of December 2014
Don't know. Don't care.
What I do predict is that I will now see my country regaining her sovereignty within my lifetime. I have never been able to say that before. And boy oh boy oh boy, it feels good! Really, really good!
I wonder how a "None of the above Democratic Peoples Popular Party" (NOTAPPP) would fair in such a scenario?
What I do predict is that I will now see my country regaining her sovereignty within my lifetime. I have never been able to say that before. And boy oh boy oh boy, it feels good! Really, really good!
Stuart, Sweden gained its independence centuries ago
Terri Nicholson, from the Metropolitan Police’s counter-terrorism command unit, said that taxpayers’ money was being claimed fraudulently and used by terrorists in countries such as Iraq and Syria.
She said there had been “a number of cases” recently of terrorists making fraudulent student loan claims to fund their activities"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/11256882/Jihadists-funded-by-welfare-benefits-senior-police-officer-warns.html
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/yougov-voting-intention
Something significant has happened since 1st October, IMO.
In a letter to the Public Accounts Committee, John Vine reveals that the Home Secretary is currently sitting on five reports believed to be critical of the Government, one of which was completed five months ago.
Mr Vine, the chief inspector of borders and immigration, warns the MPs that the failure to publish his reports in a “timely” manner is “reducing their impact” and has “compromised” the independence of his role.
His letter, which comes just months after he announced he was stepping down early, raises serious questions about the extent to which Ms May’s is attempting to control critical stories about immigration in the run up to the election. It will also fuel suspicions that the Tories are unwilling to allow the publication of critical reports"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11256823/Theresa-May-delayed-critical-reports-on-immigration.html
What I do predict is that I will now see my country regaining her sovereignty within my lifetime. I have never been able to say that before. And boy oh boy oh boy, it feels good! Really, really good!
How long are you planning on living for?
What I do predict is that I will now see my country regaining her sovereignty within my lifetime. I have never been able to say that before. And boy oh boy oh boy, it feels good! Really, really good!
Yes you have an outstanding record on Scottish voting intention.
The git.