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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Kippers least likely to have felt the recovery – Tories the
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Kippers least likely to have felt the recovery – Tories the most likely
The chart is based on aggregate data for Populus polls last month and is broadly in line with what we seen from other pollsters. Those currently saying they’ll vote UKIP have the most negative views about the recovery.
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UKIP might not have a magic prescription to help those people, but it creates the impression that is understands their problems and hence will help them if the opportunity arises.
The toxic combination of a cabinet full of wealth and privilege, and the dismissive attitude of the bien-pensant Tory centrists like Parris who openly say that the UKIP demographic should be humored but not listen to, that is what is killing the Tory vote, and swelling Farage's voter numbers.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/11/did-george-osborne-halve-britains-eu-bill-by-admitting-that-his-growth-is-a-mirage/
"The BES and UKHLS confirm that Ukip voters come disproportionately from the middle, rather than lower, rungs of the income spectrum. They are more likely to be homeowners, employed and politically conscious than the average white adult. True, older voters, and younger voters without qualifications, are overrepresented in the party. But this points to status rather than class, culture as opposed to economic position, as the motor of Ukip support.
In the BES, 18 per cent of White British people intend to vote Ukip in 2015. Among the 5500 whites polled who have university degrees but are poorer than average, support drops to just 11 per cent. For the 7300 whites in the sample lacking university degrees who are wealthier than average, it jumps to 21 per cent. The archetypal Ukiper is a successful plumber, comfortable retiree or construction foreman, not an unemployed, deskilled casualty of globalisation. They are ‘left out’ of the status elite, and therefore resentful, but are not left behind by the modern economy. "
http://quarterly.demos.co.uk/article/issue-4/the-dark-net-revolt-on-the-right-cricket/
The GDP success the Conservatives tout, is an increase in total GDP rather than GDP per capita. An increase in population rather than an increase in prosperity.
Oh wow, there's a dumpster on fire outside! This is nuts.
http://i.imgur.com/8Ic9EYr.jpg
Fire fighters have put out the blaze. Happy to report my bin is still intact and ready for collection in the morning!
The warnings have returned, as have the riot police.
Open a window and shout :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime MInister
Current polling and betting markets suggest otherwise....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11253267/Jean-Claude-Junckers-315bn-New-Deal-dismissed-as-a-subprime-gimmick.html
If @RobC wants to fly the English flag from his house window and his white van and shout :
"Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister"
then I for one applaud him.
Our local GP practice went through a bad time recruiting recently and it’s harder than it was a couple of years ago to get a hospital appointment. More than two weeks holiday means a fight to get a repeat prescription. Food prices seem to be rising; more slowly than they were, perhaps, admittedly, but......
There are constant reliability problems with public transport locally.
People in the pub are grumbling that their wages are static. "Haven’t had a rise for years" isn’t uncommon. Nor are complaints about job stability. Graduates are working in the bar of my local, complaining they can’t get “real” jobs.
Personally I can’t see that there are any Kipper policies which would do anything useful, and I’ve no problem with immigration; it’ll settle down and I rather expect that the wheel will turn before long and, as in the 80’s Brits will be flocking abroad.
This is because the main objective in the recovery to date is not to increase living standards (which have been falling) but to reduce borrowing and the extent to which UK plc is living beyond its means. The even more depressing reality is that we have several more years of this with very modest increases in real wages, a continuing downward pressure on government spending and, most likely, increases in the tax burden overall whatever happens to Income tax.
What Labour is doing rather well is pretending that there are some large gains from the recovery but that they are being squirreled away by those largely mythical tory cronies. In reality the very well paid of 2007, such as bankers and financial investors, are doing much worse than they were then and have borne more than their share of the pain.
Most of this problem comes from a determined refusal on behalf of the public and most of the media to refuse to recognise how parlous a situation we were in in 2010 and how much needs to be done to undo the Brown damage.
In my experience Kippers are even more likely than the majority to take that view. Why has Osborne not snapped his fingers and made the largest deficit in the western world disappear? He just can't be bothered! Why has he not, at the same time, spent much more on [my favourite hobbyhorse]? He just doesn't care! Why doesn't the government recognise that the EU is the source of all our problems (apart from immigration)? They are just stupid!
The population are looking for quick fixes and simple solutions. If they are still in the same mood in May the Tories will lose and "price freeze Ed" will indeed be PM. Ho hum.
Low interest rates ?
Tax cuts for the low paid ?
Falling petrol prices ?
Index linked state pension
Low inflation ?
Falling unemployment ?
If only those were the case.
"The population are looking for quick fixes and simple solutions. If they are still in the same mood in May the Tories will lose and "price freeze Ed" will indeed be PM. Ho hum. "
It seems to have been thus for many years. When I was young my family debated long and hard before increasing their monthly outgoings by taking their first mortgage - in their early 40s!
In my early 30s I lived with bare floorboards [not the trendy stripped and polished version!] and hand me down furniture in my first flat as I couldn't afford better on my teacher's pay. The thing is you waited and did without. People won't do this nowadays. I feel no guilt at my current comfort because I did without earlier.
But for people to feel the benefit it sort of needed to happen a couple of years back and be matched with rising wages.
We are faced with the prospect of the benefits of recovery coming too late to appreciably help Cameron.
Really? Property prices have soared, quantitative easing has provided all kinds of opportunities, the markets have generally been moving northwards, the cost of borrowing is lower than it has ever been before, dividend taxes have been cut. There's never been a better time to be very wealthy.
True.
If Dave gets re-elected then they can all blame the nasty Tories one more time for doing the necessary. I think where the 'disconnect / does not compute' will kick into overdrive is if Ed gets to become PM. The bursting of the 'jam tomorrow and forever' bubble is going to be brutal.
FWIW I'm beginning to reconcile myself to the likelihood of a Redward premiership and the meltdown it will bring. I'm beginning to think that as a country we need that meltdown to get people to understand properly what a deep mess we are still in and what getting out of it will entail. Just as alcoholics need their epiphany before they can cure themselves - maybe we need our Ed / Labour epiphany before we can all get behind fixing the country.
Lol!
@seanF
Overall, pensioners have probably done better than any other grouping - except the very wealthy - over the last few years. Maybe it's more about not being happy with life generally.
I think few people have done well since 2008 (including pensioners and the very wealthy). It's more a case of doing less badly than others.
Simply not true - I'm one of many thousands of retirees on good modest pensions whose income has increased considerably since 2010 mainly because of the tax improvements and low inflation. Many thousands more have benefited from council tax freezes and low mortgage rates as well. Even the so-called pay freezes have not affected increments in many public sector jobs. Currently we have much lower oil prices as well. People really need to be more modest in their expectations. It's sad to read otherwise sensible kippers like yourself falling into the trap of negativity about everything.
This is what I got taught. I have never run a balance on my credit card from month to month. I didn't even have one until I was about 30. I have only had about 3 loans in my life for non mortgage things and none for years. I have been far too cautious in borrowing to invest and have lost out hugely as a result. My children seem to have a more liberal view of what is possible.
I am way to far at the wrong end of the scale but I agree that too many are at the other and their willingness to spend tomorrow's income today has infected their political views.
Overall, pensioners have probably done better than any other grouping - except the very wealthy - over the last few years. Maybe it's more about not being happy with life generally.
I think few people have done well since 2008 (including pensioners and the very wealthy). It's more a case of doing less badly than others.
Simply not true - I'm one of many thousands of retirees on good modest pensions whose income has increased considerably since 2010 mainly because of the tax improvements and low inflation. Many thousands more have benefited from council tax freezes and low mortgage rates as well. Even the so-called pay freezes have not affected increments in many public sector jobs. Currently we have much lower oil prices as well. People really need to be more modest in their expectations. It's sad to read otherwise sensible kippers like yourself falling into the trap of negativity about everything.
It's not being negative. GDP per head is clearly lower than at the start of 2008, though clearly better than in May 2010. But, the growth in GDP per head of 2-2.5% we had from 1950-2000, doesn't look as if it's returning. Maybe 1% per head is the new normal.
To the extent it helped the banks (who were given guaranteed profits by buying gilts and selling it to the BoE) it at best moderated their balance sheet cuts. Money was plentiful and available for the daftest investments prior to 2008. Clients of mine still cannot get borrowing on ridiculous LTV ratios and investment suffers as a result.
I too am actually quite cautious, despite what one may think of my betting here saying otherwise when it come to borrowing. I currently owe the bank/long term student debt just over 2* income and am in my early 30s.
The gilt markets will limit the amount Ed n Ed can borrow (at least at reasonable rates) - so the impact would be on interest rates. We might see the BoE having to buy all the gilts (a la Japan) in which case Sterling will crumble - horrific for a net importer (esp of energy) like us. Anyway, whatever degree of effwittery they inflict on the economy will be reflected in the markets - so perhaps self limiting. What is not self limiting is the political reaction to their impending acceleration of our public finances ruin. The political landscape in 2020 may be very much less friendly to them.
For the last 6 years interest rates have been extremely low, meaning that borrowing to fund living costs carries little pain and saving is not worthwhile. This is true for individuals as well as government. Until interest rates go back to historic norms living beyond ones means is easy.
Cash rich foreigners buy (and do not occupy) houses and flats in London for similar reasons. Real estate is historically a good investment.
Have I stepped into some kind of alternate reality?
"Jobseekers from the European Union are to be barred from having their wages topped up by the state, Iain Duncan Smith has revealed."
Anyone think this is going to remain the case for more than a week or two ? Its non-contributory, so presumably any EU citizen will be entitled to collect it, since they are entitled to be treated as a UK citizen under EU law.
And as such, this chart shows a magnificent potential harvest for UKIP, with Labour voters being the low hanging fruit, but the vast majority believing in a recovery that they haven't seen, nor are they likely to. When they become disabused of this notion, they will be looking outside the legacy parties.
Seems the heir apparent is as well, perhaps someone should tell his party.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/05/why-chuka-umunna-intensely-relaxed-about-being-compared-peter-mandelson
"I dont have a problem with people making a lot of money, so long as they pay their taxes and its good for our economy",
Rising real wages and creation of decent jobs - rather than forcing people into burger flipping ones - are the only things that matter.
Far too late for the Tories to turn that around now.
Moon on a stick perhaps ?
A free sedan chair staffed by white non immigrants ?
Now that would be a recovery eh ?
Gross income has not increased for most wage earners, but net income has increased due to income tax changes. We have become used to an annual pay increase and that has had to cease as the UK has become very uncompetitive globally.
Productivity has not increased and until that does, then wage increases cannot be justified.
At the same time, the nature of employment has changed with more people becoming self-employed/own companies and so being more independent and often sympathetic to UKIP because of that feeling of independency. Also this means a reduced tax take from these people.
So what about costs:
Initially food prices went up around 2010 due to global prices but this has reversed somewhat and will continue to do so as shoppers desert the main four supermarkets, on both price and quality. However, in the future food costs are likely to rise due to global demand.
Energy prices increased due to global pricing but also dependency on energy imports and the failure to plan for energy future during the 2000s.
Housing costs have increased, especially rents, due to the false house price level which was fostered in the 2000s by HMG inaction and devolving of responsibility. Also unchecked immigration in the 2000s put unplanned pressure on housing capacity as well as services.
Council tax has increased but should not have done so as councils were able to cut costs but not services but often chose to protect (and even increase) salaries and pensions.
Clothing has not cost more and has even reduced in price. Public transport has increased in cost or in country areas become uneconomic without subsidy.
So naturally there is a perception of feeling worse off, but as has been written before, the cuts have not been sufficient to really affect the deficit (and so the debt has climbed) mainly due to the slowing effect of a coalition.
We have not yet weaned ourselves from buying our goods etc from Asia, but the failure to innovate and match those imports with exports can only lead to a decline in national and personal wealth.
In our local towns and villages £150,000 will still secure a nice 2/3 bedroom terrace house or modest bungalow. If I sold my 6 bedroom country house sitting in 2.5 acres of gardens in Easter Ross, I might just about manage to buy a garden shed in a dodgy area of London.
Private Sector Jobs have no greater value than any other job, as the UKs woeful productivity figures and dismal tax receipts make abundantly clear.
If zillions of burger flippers are so valuable to the economy - more so than, say, social workers - why is the deficit rising on the back of an undershoot in income tax receipts?
On EU citizens being treated like UK citizens: does that mean they get to vote in General Elections?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11249808/Are-we-citizens-of-the-United-Kingdom-or-the-European-Union.html Which seems a bit scarey to me, and extends Freedom of Movement way more than it at first appears.
As for the tax inspector, his wage (from the Treasury) exceeds the taxation he pays. He's reliant upon money paid by private sector workers for his wage. In short, the private sector could exist without him, he could not exist without the private sector.
I am not knocking the public sector, or saying they don't do important work. I'm saying that the private sector is the foundations upon which the public sector is built. Without private sector taxation there are no wages for doctors, nurses, bureaucrats, teachers and diversity co-ordinators.
It doesn't matter how badly or well you are doing if someone else is doing better. And especially if that person is doing better undeservedly.
So ... Although you're doing badly, the bankers, rich people and tax avoiders are doing well - and it's all it's a deliberate plan by the Tories to look after their mates.
The famous "it's not fair" politics as taught in class 3C in primary school.
And the Tories are helping this meme along by some gormless policies. The master, Tony, introduced gormless policies too, but softened up the electorate first with the help of helpful media friends (and some arm twisting). Cammo and Ozzie don't see the necessity of doing this - after all, they already know best.
They deserve to lose.
If the government pays for people to do stuff, it gets all the money back in tax, less savings.
Overnight the entire public sector disappears, the world would not be a very nice place because those people do all sorts of useful things, but it would continue, private enterprise would happen, money would be made, lots of the things the government does would be replaced by private providers.
or
Overnight the entire private sector disappears, the public sector rumbles on until pay day, and then notices there is no one to tax to pay them, and everyone goes on strike, or quits to do private work.
They would need British, Irish, or Commonwealtb citizenship to vote in UK elections.
The article demonstrates one of the most pernicious parts of modern equality/human rights laws, namely that governments must not differentiate between their own citizens and foreign nationals.
If we cut taxes by turning the NHS into a system paid for by private insurance it would do many things, but these would not include magically turn it into an economic powerhouse. If my tax cuts wind up leaving my pocket as insurance premiums then I am no better off!
Private enterprise is completely dependent on the rule of law, a fit and educated workforce, transport infrastructure... All wealth generated by the public sector.
You can't have one without the other.
The EU's still off its bloody rocker, though.
This isn't that difficult to comprehend.
But the Right's failure to do so shows why they stuff up the economy time and time again.
Endnote on your Ed Miliband snark - he's an MSc in economics. Which means he has a higher academic qualification in the subject than Cameron and the useless Osborne.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/24/eu-citizens-prevented-voting-confusion-registration-forms
Petros Fassoulas, chair of European Movement UK, said: "It's definitely not good to see so many EU citizens feel disenfranchised because they could not vote. EU citizens' right to vote anywhere they live in the EU is a fundamental right and should not be compromised."
The trick is making sure the public sector foundations are affordable and maintainable.
There are systems which are 100% public (Soviet Union / North Korea) which do, undeniably, have a GDP and create things of value - just pitifully small amounts and your human rights get trampled to maintain the system.
There are systems which are (nearly) 100% private - the bad old days of no public police/education/health/welfare/defence etc. In Tudor times the state levied about 2% tax on GDP and had to resort to new taxes every time the king wanted a war. Most of human history falls into this bracket.
The unavoidable learnings are that:
1. Up to certain limit a state / public sector is vital to offer law/order/defence etc and avoid anarchy.
2. Above that you're into choices - is it, for example, better to educate via the state or not?
3. For many things choosing more state is good. The NHS (at least the concept of free at point of use helthcare) clearly adds value overall.
4. Once you start getting into the realm of 'too much' you find the state smothers growth and freedoms. I think, for example, that health and education should be paid for out of general taxation but that the state itself should not provide them - but offer vouchers or purchase services in a free market.
5. Fetishing either public or private will take you out of the 'value adding zone' - on eother side. In modern deficit funded welfare states we are well out of the value adding zone and into 'too much state'.
33% Better
29% Worse
23% Same
YouGov for The Times Red Box
At the start of September my job-related stock options were worth about £105,000 and now they're worth about £130,000, most of which gain is dollar rather than stock price appreciation. I will need to flog some of these when they vest but I have a feeling I should minimise this selling.
I have a BTL worth 7 figures too. It seems clear Ed's mansion tax will eventually be applied to all property in Tory constituencies, so I am thinking it might make sense to sell that and buy two for say 40% of the price each and hold the rest of the money in classic cars - an XK140 and a nice E Type, for example.
Having money in a property or a pension under Labour is simply asking to be robbed to pay for Scotland. It's akin to that scene in Transpotting where the American tourist walks into the pub and asks where the bathroom is.