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  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815


    BTW I believe the most productive place per capita in Britain is Derby.

    Why Derby? Please enlighten us. Is it because it is close by Alton Towers, as I mentioned earlier?
    I think another richard rather topically means the Derby in Surrey.

  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    If UKIP is admitted to the debate, is there any reason to exclude the Greens and Respect, who at least have an MP each?
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,128


    BTW I believe the most productive place per capita in Britain is Derby.

    Why Derby? Please enlighten us. Is it because it is close by Alton Towers, as I mentioned earlier?
    Lots of export based engineering.

    Rolls-Royce aero engines especially.

    There's also Toyota close by but I don't know if that's included within the Derby calculations.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    RodCrosby said:

    If UKIP is admitted to the debate, is there any reason to exclude the Greens and Respect, who at least have an MP each?

    Are either Respect or The Greens putting up enough candidates to form a Gov't ? Not talking about probability of doing it, if you did it on that measure the Lib Dems should never be in the debates.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,128

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT

    Re you Legoland experiences.

    According to this BBC article the Essex tourism industry doesn't appear to be doing so well:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22702004

    I do suspect there's a difference between working and middle class perceptions as to how well Britain is doing.

    Legoland is in Surrey.
    Really?

    http://www.legoland.co.uk/Plan/Directions/

    LEGOLAND Windsor is located at
    Winkfield Road,
    Windsor,
    Berkshire,-
    SL4 4AY
    Indeed - my bad!

    Though, while we are talking about the greater south east tourist economy, a few weeks ago I was at Southend Funfair in Essex (quoted in another_richard's BBC report), which is much more working class than Legoland.

    Southend was also rammed.

    I don't think there is any doubt that the entire London/SE economy long ago left recession, and is now growing at a fair lick - in fact, it is almost boisterous.

    The question, therefore, is not whether there is a dreadful working class/middle class division in southern England (there isn't, much), it is the extent to which London and its hinterland are uncoupling, economically, from the rest of the UK.
    But do you go to tourist areas outside the south-east for comprison ?

    As I've said before there's been no reduction in wealth CONSUMPTION - there's £120bn of government borrowing to support it.

    It was wealth PRODUCTION which suffered the recession.

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT

    Re you Legoland experiences.

    According to this BBC article the Essex tourism industry doesn't appear to be doing so well:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22702004

    I do suspect there's a difference between working and middle class perceptions as to how well Britain is doing.

    Legoland is in Surrey.
    Really?

    http://www.legoland.co.uk/Plan/Directions/

    LEGOLAND Windsor is located at
    Winkfield Road,
    Windsor,
    Berkshire,-
    SL4 4AY
    Indeed - my bad!

    Though, while we are talking about the greater south east tourist economy, a few weeks ago I was at Southend Funfair in Essex (quoted in another_richard's BBC report), which is much more working class than Legoland.

    Southend was also rammed.

    I don't think there is any doubt that the entire London/SE economy long ago left recession, and is now growing at a fair lick - in fact, it is almost boisterous.

    The question, therefore, is not whether there is a dreadful working class/middle class division in southern England (there isn't, much), it is the extent to which London and its hinterland are uncoupling, economically, from the rest of the UK.
    But do you go to tourist areas outside the south-east for comprison ?

    As I've said before there's been no reduction in wealth CONSUMPTION - there's £120bn of government borrowing to support it.

    It was wealth PRODUCTION which suffered the recession.
    Inner London produces more wealth, per head, than anywhere else in Europe (maybe the world?)

    "OUT OF all the regions across the 27 members of the EU, inner London has the highest productivity per capita, figures showed yesterday."

    http://www.cityam.com/article/inner-london-eu-s-most-productive-economic-region

    DESPITE the collapse in financial services, London remains a phenomenal economic machine, generating turnover and taxes like almost nowhere else on the planet.

    If only the rest of the country was half as dynamic. But it isn't. That is what we need to fix. Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester, Glasgow and Birmingham will never equal London, but there's no obvious reason why they couldn't be as prosperous and productive as, say, Turin or Stockholm.
    Undoubtably there is a lot of money being made still in inner London, but how were these figures based? If a banker lives in Godalming, but works in the square mile, to which geographical area should the money be assigned? Ditto a Cornish thriller writer who writes in Thailand but publishes the literary product in London. Even a hundred miles north in Leicestershire there are workers who commute to the Smoke.

    To have a high GDP per capita you need a large amount of earnings divided by a small number of people, so defining who is in each matters. The figures are even more distorted if earnings of non-Londoners are added but the people are not.
    Indeed.

    Similarly IIRC the London borough with the higest paid workforce is Tower Hamlets.

    Yet Tower Hamlets is a deprived area.

    The contradiction explained by Canary Wharf based employers with many high paid employees who live outside of Tower Hamlets.
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    Roger said:

    @Avery

    FPT.

    'Nigel Evans MP accused of sexual assault by fourth alleged victim' "Nigel Evans should be promoted not vilified."

    I agree that having the deputy speaker fondle this 22 year old intern's bottom while being shown round parliament by his parents should not be a matter for the police. It's character building.
    No wonder the Tories are now only recruiting from Eton

    All this retrospective investigation of exuberant sexual behaviour should be stopped in its tracks, Roger.

    Just imagine what would happen if the inquisition started to turn its attention to mid-late twentieth century public schools!

    I think we need a bit more detail of what happened here. If a bit of unwanted physical sexual attention that was rebuffed is a crime then not many would pass a CRB check! I was on the receiving end of similar contact on a number of occasions, by both sexes.

    If it was repeated when the contact was clearly not wanted it starts to be more serious and sordid.
    Setting aside my inclination to play with Roger on the subject of public school abuse and his defence of the BBC, I find it hard to believe that a serious sexual assault could have occurred in a bar of the House of Commons between a Deputy Speaker and a young SpAd accompanied by his parents. Especially when it is reported the Deputy Speaker had his back to the complainant and all present were no doubt fully clothed.

    I suspect this is no more a quick goose designed to try and see how the boy would behave in front of his parents. A somewhat childish but harmless prank.

    But then I don't know the full facts.
  • Options
    RodCrosby said:

    If UKIP is admitted to the debate, is there any reason to exclude the Greens and Respect, who at least have an MP each?

    I'd argue that if they are putting up over a certain number of candidates (i.e. technically sufficient to win the election) then they should be included. If there is absolutely no chance of them forming a government on their own (i.e. less than the set threshold of candidates candidates) then I think its OK to exclude them (just as the SNP were excluded in 2010).


  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,128
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT

    Re you Legoland experiences.

    According to this BBC article the Essex tourism industry doesn't appear to be doing so well:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22702004

    I do suspect there's a difference between working and middle class perceptions as to how well Britain is doing.

    Legoland is in Surrey.
    Really?

    http://www.legoland.co.uk/Plan/Directions/

    LEGOLAND Windsor is located at
    Winkfield Road,
    Windsor,
    Berkshire,-
    SL4 4AY
    Indeed - my bad!

    Though, while we are talking about the greater south east tourist economy, a few weeks ago I was at Southend Funfair in Essex (quoted in another_richard's BBC report), which is much more working class than Legoland.

    Southend was also rammed.

    I don't think there is any doubt that the entire London/SE economy long ago left recession, and is now growing at a fair lick - in fact, it is almost boisterous.

    The question, therefore, is not whether there is a dreadful working class/middle class division in southern England (there isn't, much), it is the extent to which London and its hinterland are uncoupling, economically, from the rest of the UK.
    But do you go to tourist areas outside the south-east for comprison ?

    As I've said before there's been no reduction in wealth CONSUMPTION - there's £120bn of government borrowing to support it.

    It was wealth PRODUCTION which suffered the recession.

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT

    Re you Legoland experiences.

    According to this BBC article the Essex tourism industry doesn't appear to be doing so well:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22702004

    I do suspect there's a difference between working and middle class perceptions as to how well Britain is doing.

    Legoland is in Surrey.
    Really?

    http://www.legoland.co.uk/Plan/Directions/

    LEGOLAND Windsor is located at
    Winkfield Road,
    Windsor,
    Berkshire,-
    SL4 4AY
    Indeed - my bad!

    Though, while we are talking about the greater south east tourist economy, a few weeks ago I was at Southend Funfair in Essex (quoted in another_richard's BBC report), which is much more working class than Legoland.

    Southend was also rammed.

    I don't think there is any doubt that the entire London/SE economy long ago left recession, and is now growing at a fair lick - in fact, it is almost boisterous.

    The question, therefore, is not whether there is a dreadful working class/middle class division in southern England (there isn't, much), it is the extent to which London and its hinterland are uncoupling, economically, from the rest of the UK.
    But do you go to tourist areas outside the south-east for comprison ?

    As I've said before there's been no reduction in wealth CONSUMPTION - there's £120bn of government borrowing to support it.

    It was wealth PRODUCTION which suffered the recession.
    Inner London produces more wealth, per head, than anywhere else in Europe (maybe the world?)

    "OUT OF all the regions across the 27 members of the EU, inner London has the highest productivity per capita, figures showed yesterday."

    http://www.cityam.com/article/inner-london-eu-s-most-productive-economic-region

    DESPITE the collapse in financial services, London remains a phenomenal economic machine, generating turnover and taxes like almost nowhere else on the planet.

    If only the rest of the country was half as dynamic. But it isn't. That is what we need to fix. Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester, Glasgow and Birmingham will never equal London, but there's no obvious reason why they couldn't be as prosperous and productive as, say, Turin or Stockholm.
    Productivity per capita is but one way of measuring output.

    You could also look at output per cost or return on investment.

    London might have high output but it also has high costs.

    Also you could examine your productivity per capita in more detail. Which I suspect would show a relatively small number of people with very high personal output but a much larger number at around the average national level.

    Which when combined with the higher cost base of London leads to more extremes in wealth with the resulting social tensions.

    Now some people might think that a price worth paying for London being more 'dynamic'. Those that don't either leave London, accept lower living standards than they would have elsewhere in Britain or become alienated from society and ultimately riot.
  • Options
    Gerry_ManderGerry_Mander Posts: 621


    BTW I believe the most productive place per capita in Britain is Derby.

    Why Derby? Please enlighten us. Is it because it is close by Alton Towers, as I mentioned earlier?
    Lots of export based engineering.

    Rolls-Royce aero engines especially.

    There's also Toyota close by but I don't know if that's included within the Derby calculations.
    Why does that make it productive? Are you one of the people who believe that if an aeroplane (or car) is made, then that adds value, but using it doesn't?

    If that is the case, why don't we just manufacture things, then throw them away. We'll be rich beyond our wildest imagination.

    Anyway, I'm off to bed now...
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT

    Re you Legoland experiences.

    According to this BBC article the Essex tourism industry doesn't appear to be doing so well:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22702004

    I do suspect there's a difference between working and middle class perceptions as to how well Britain is doing.

    Legoland is in Surrey.
    Really?

    http://www.legoland.co.uk/Plan/Directions/

    LEGOLAND Windsor is located at
    Winkfield Road,
    Windsor,
    Berkshire,-
    SL4 4AY
    Indeed - my bad!

    Though, while we are talking about the greater south east tourist economy, a few weeks ago I was at Southend Funfair in Essex (quoted in another_richard's BBC report), which is much more working class than Legoland.

    Southend was also rammed.

    I don't think there is any doubt that the entire London/SE economy long ago left recession, and is now growing at a fair lick - in fact, it is almost boisterous.

    The question, therefore, is not whether there is a dreadful working class/middle class division in southern England (there isn't, much), it is the extent to which London and its hinterland are uncoupling, economically, from the rest of the UK.
    But do you go to tourist areas outside the south-east for comprison ?

    As I've said before there's been no reduction in wealth CONSUMPTION - there's £120bn of government borrowing to support it.

    It was wealth PRODUCTION which suffered the recession.

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT

    Re you Legoland experiences.

    According to this BBC article the Essex tourism industry doesn't appear to be doing so well:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22702004

    I do suspect there's a difference between working and middle class perceptions as to how well Britain is doing.

    Legoland is in Surrey.
    Really?

    http://www.legoland.co.uk/Plan/Directions/

    LEGOLAND Windsor is located at
    Winkfield Road,
    Windsor,
    Berkshire,-
    SL4 4AY
    Indeed - my bad!

    Though, while we are talking about the greater south east tourist economy, a few weeks ago I was at Southend Funfair in Essex (quoted in another_richard's BBC report), which is much more working class than Legoland.

    Southend was also rammed.

    I don't think there is any doubt that the entire London/SE economy long ago left recession, and is now growing at a fair lick - in fact, it is almost boisterous.

    The question, therefore, is not whether there is a dreadful working class/middle class division in southern England (there isn't, much), it is the extent to which London and its hinterland are uncoupling, economically, from the rest of the UK.
    But do you go to tourist areas outside the south-east for comprison ?

    As I've said before there's been no reduction in wealth CONSUMPTION - there's £120bn of government borrowing to support it.

    It was wealth PRODUCTION which suffered the recession.
    Inner London produces more wealth, per head, than anywhere else in Europe (maybe the world?)

    "OUT OF all the regions across the 27 members of the EU, inner London has the highest productivity per capita, figures showed yesterday."

    http://www.cityam.com/article/inner-london-eu-s-most-productive-economic-region

    DESPITE the collapse in financial services, London remains a phenomenal economic machine, generating turnover and taxes like almost nowhere else on the planet.

    If only the rest of the country was half as dynamic. But it isn't. That is what we need to fix. Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester, Glasgow and Birmingham will never equal London, but there's no obvious reason why they couldn't be as prosperous and productive as, say, Turin or Stockholm.
    Undoubtably there is a lot of money being made still in inner London, but how were these figures based? If a banker lives in Godalming, but works in the square mile, to which geographical area should the money be assigned? Ditto a Cornish thriller writer who writes in Thailand but publishes the literary product in London. Even a hundred miles north in Leicestershire there are workers who commute to the Smoke.

    To have a high GDP per capita you need a large amount of earnings divided by a small number of people, so defining who is in each matters. The figures are even more distorted if earnings of non-Londoners are added but the people are not.
    Indeed.

    Similarly IIRC the London borough with the higest paid workforce is Tower Hamlets.

    Yet Tower Hamlets is a deprived area.

    The contradiction explained by Canary Wharf based employers with many high paid employees who live outside of Tower Hamlets.
    Anyone who has been to a mainline, or suburban tube station can see that a lot of the wealth of London is being generated, and spent, by a workforce that only in part live in London. Indeed very often the whole purpose of working so hard is so the family can be brought up in Dorking rather than Tooting.

    Nonetheless, London usually pulls out of recession before the ripples spread over the rest of the country, so it is good news even for we poor buggers outside of the Smoke.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,420
    RodCrosby said:

    If UKIP is admitted to the debate, is there any reason to exclude the Greens and Respect, who at least have an MP each?

    Plenty. Polling being the most obvious, either opinion (which are used in consideration of whether US third party candidates should be allowed a slot in their presidential debates), or actual in European, local and by-elections. On top of which, number of seats contested ought to be a factor if they are, as last time, Prime Ministerial-aspirant debates.

    At the end of the day though, there will be no impartial preset 'rules' to objectively include or exclude any person; the line-up will be the first, and perhaps largest, part of the fight. Whether UKIP is included - the Greens and Respect certainly won't be - will come down to whether they can successfully argue themselves a place. The evidence on which they'll make the case matters but not as well as their persuasiveness, and that of their supporters, in making it.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT

    Re you Legoland experiences.

    According to this BBC article the Essex tourism industry doesn't appear to be doing so well:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22702004

    I do suspect there's a difference between working and middle class perceptions as to how well Britain is doing.

    Legoland is in Surrey.
    Really?

    http://www.legoland.co.uk/Plan/Directions/

    LEGOLAND Windsor is located at
    Winkfield Road,
    Windsor,
    Berkshire,-
    SL4 4AY
    Indeed - my bad!

    Though, while we are talking about the greater south east tourist economy, a few weeks ago I was at Southend Funfair in Essex (quoted in another_richard's BBC report), which is much more working class than Legoland.

    Southend was also rammed.

    I don't think there is any doubt that the entire London/SE economy long ago left recession, and is now growing at a fair lick - in fact, it is almost boisterous.

    The question, therefore, is not whether there is a dreadful working class/middle class division in southern England (there isn't, much), it is the extent to which London and its hinterland are uncoupling, economically, from the rest of the UK.
    But do you go to tourist areas outside the south-east for comprison ?

    As I've said before there's been no reduction in wealth CONSUMPTION - there's £120bn of government borrowing to support it.

    It was wealth PRODUCTION which suffered the recession.

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT

    Re you Legoland experiences.

    According to this BBC article the Essex tourism industry doesn't appear to be doing so well:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22702004

    I do suspect there's a difference between working and middle class perceptions as to how well Britain is doing.

    Legoland is in Surrey.
    Really?

    http://www.legoland.co.uk/Plan/Directions/

    LEGOLAND Windsor is located at
    Winkfield Road,
    Windsor,
    Berkshire,-
    SL4 4AY
    Indeed - my bad!

    Though, while we are talking about the greater south east tourist economy, a few weeks ago I was at Southend Funfair in Essex (quoted in another_richard's BBC report), which is much more working class than Legoland.

    Southend was also rammed.

    I don't think there is any doubt that the entire London/SE economy long ago left recession, and is now growing at a fair lick - in fact, it is almost boisterous.

    The question, therefore, is not whether there is a dreadful working class/middle class division in southern England (there isn't, much), it is the extent to which London and its hinterland are uncoupling, economically, from the rest of the UK.
    But do you go to tourist areas outside the south-east for comprison ?

    As I've said before there's been no reduction in wealth CONSUMPTION - there's £120bn of government borrowing to support it.

    It was wealth PRODUCTION which suffered the recession.
    Inner London produces more wealth, per head, than anywhere else in Europe (maybe the world?)

    "OUT OF all the regions across the 27 members of the EU, inner London has the highest productivity per capita, figures showed yesterday."

    http://www.cityam.com/article/inner-london-eu-s-most-productive-economic-region

    DESPITE the collapse in financial services, London remains a phenomenal economic machine, generating turnover and taxes like almost nowhere else on the planet.

    If only the rest of the country was half as dynamic. But it isn't. That is what we need to fix. Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester, Glasgow and Birmingham will never equal London, but there's no obvious reason why they couldn't be as prosperous and productive as, say, Turin or Stockholm.
    Productivity per capita is but one way of measuring output.

    You could also look at output per cost or return on investment.

    London might have high output but it also has high costs.

    Also you could examine your productivity per capita in more detail. Which I suspect would show a relatively small number of people with very high personal output but a much larger number at around the average national level.

    Which when combined with the higher cost base of London leads to more extremes in wealth with the resulting social tensions.

    Now some people might think that a price worth paying for London being more 'dynamic'. Those that don't either leave London, accept lower living standards than they would have elsewhere in Britain or become alienated from society and ultimately riot.
    It is the aristocracy and servants reinventing themselves for the modern world. Few now have butlers,cooks and nannies. That seems to be a little gauche and old fashioned, as well as requiring some relationship with the hired help. The new aristocracy prefer their butler and cook in a restraunt and the nanny in a nursery, that way they can chop and change by capricious whim that would make our ancestors blush. All the benefits and few obligations, may not be progress.

  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    This Derby thing is the manufacturing fetish that so many non-economists go crazy for.

    There is no intrinsic reason for manufacturing to be better than services. It's ridiculous to think so: clearly manufacturing an oven pizza is no more valuable than a restaurant serving you a real one.

    Inner London does plenty other than financial services. There's legal services, there's business services, there's retail, there's IT, there's creative stuff, there's leisure. It's all important.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,128


    BTW I believe the most productive place per capita in Britain is Derby.

    Why Derby? Please enlighten us. Is it because it is close by Alton Towers, as I mentioned earlier?
    Lots of export based engineering.

    Rolls-Royce aero engines especially.

    There's also Toyota close by but I don't know if that's included within the Derby calculations.
    Why does that make it productive? Are you one of the people who believe that if an aeroplane (or car) is made, then that adds value, but using it doesn't?

    If that is the case, why don't we just manufacture things, then throw them away. We'll be rich beyond our wildest imagination.

    Anyway, I'm off to bed now...
    I think the fact that foreigners are prepared to pay lots of money for the things the people of Derby produce suggests that they have managed to add value.

    If we just threw the things we bought away we would be destroying value.

    But I'm not aware that anyone purposefully buys Rolls-Royce aeroengines or Toyota cars and then immediately destroys them.

    If those owners use their products to provide a service which other people are willing to pay for then you could say they are adding value.

    For example me using a Toyota as a taxi would be adding economic value but me dricving around a Toyota for fun wouldn't be adding economic value.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SeanT said:

    Matthew Parris is turning into a sneering little gnome of elitism.

    I can't help agreeing. Used to enjoy reading his columns until recently.
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited May 2013
    Something our MSM is keeping quiet about:
    Sec Tec ‏@T3ev
    #Turkey : In #Ankara, people are marching towards the Parliament Building. #direngeziparki #occupygezi pic.twitter.com/lMlxw6xzOT”
    Sorry; better see it on twitter.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    edited May 2013
    Quinnipiac 2016 national
    •Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
    •Jeb Bush (R) 40%
    •Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
    •Rand Paul (R) 41%



    •Jeb Bush (R) 44%
    •Joe Biden (D) 38%
    •Rand Paul (R) 43%
    •Joe Biden (D) 39%

    PPP Virginia 2016

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
    •Marco Rubio (R) 42%
    •Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
    •Bob McDonnell (R) 42%

  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,420
    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Matthew Parris is turning into a sneering little gnome of elitism.

    I can't help agreeing. Used to enjoy reading his [Parris'] columns until recently.
    The values of the political elite have rarely been so far removed from the values and priorities of the public - or put another way, rarely can so many of the public have gone without meaningful representation of their views in parliament. Parris and his like could delude themselves when the big three dominated the opinion polls that the liberal consensus had overwhelming support. He is taking it personally that it doesn't.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,128
    Socrates said:

    This Derby thing is the manufacturing fetish that so many non-economists go crazy for.

    There is no intrinsic reason for manufacturing to be better than services. It's ridiculous to think so: clearly manufacturing an oven pizza is no more valuable than a restaurant serving you a real one.

    Inner London does plenty other than financial services. There's legal services, there's business services, there's retail, there's IT, there's creative stuff, there's leisure. It's all important.

    The problem we have is that we don't have enough wealth creating value adding activities of whatever variety you want.

    With the 'services are just as valid' mentality leading to a service sector dominated by low value added, low wealth creating sectors. A hand car wash and coffee shop economy.

    The British service sector is more barista than barrister.

    The fact is that much, maybe most, of the British service sector is deeply mediocre. Talking about the 'creatives' of Hoxton or the lawyers of Holborn doesn't change that.

    And as I said the part of the British economy with the highest output per capita are the engineering factories of Derby. Yet we are never called on to be more like Derby despite this success.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Running the Lebo & Norpoth PM Approval model I find that Labour have only been forecast to win the popular vote in three months in this parliament, with a maximum lead of just 1.2% forecast in May 2012. The Tories and Cameron seem to be recovering since that point...
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,128

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Matthew Parris is turning into a sneering little gnome of elitism.

    I can't help agreeing. Used to enjoy reading his [Parris'] columns until recently.
    The values of the political elite have rarely been so far removed from the values and priorities of the public - or put another way, rarely can so many of the public have gone without meaningful representation of their views in parliament. Parris and his like could delude themselves when the big three dominated the opinion polls that the liberal consensus had overwhelming support. He is taking it personally that it doesn't.
    Its metropolitan bigotry.

    You are only allowed a view if it agrees with mine.

    If you don't I hate you and will persecute you.

    * That's the mentality of Parris not DH *
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,128
    RodCrosby said:

    Running the Lebo & Norpoth PM Approval model I find that Labour have only been forecast to win the popular vote in three months in this parliament, with a maximum lead of just 1.2% forecast in May 2012. The Tories and Cameron seem to be recovering since that point...

    Ironically EdM has since becoming Labour leader turned into his brother - complacent, cowardly and full of pretentious theory.

    He needs to show some courage and reveal actual policies with a coherant philosophy underpining them if he is to keep some respect - much has already been lost permanently.

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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited June 2013
    Forecast Con lead in 2015

    Jan-11 3.7
    Feb-11 4.5
    Mar-11 6.9
    Apr-11 6.8
    May-11 8.1
    Jun-11 9.4
    Jul-11 5.9
    Aug-11 5.4
    Sep-11 6.3
    Oct-11 7.2
    Nov-11 4.9
    Dec-11 6.0
    Jan-12 10.3
    Feb-12 5.3
    Mar-12 7.5
    Apr-12 4.1
    May-12 -1.2
    Jun-12 2.4
    Jul-12 -0.1
    Aug-12 5.4
    Sep-12 2.4
    Oct-12 -0.4
    Nov-12 4.5
    Dec-12 1.7
    Jan-13 1.6
    Feb-13 2.0
    Mar-13 1.4
    Apr-13 2.3
    May-13 7.1

    Caveat: model is supposed to use the PM approval three-months before the election. But you don't seriously expect me to lock it away in a drawer till then, do you?
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,128
    RodCrosby said:

    Forecast Con leads in 2015

    Jan-11 3.7
    Feb-11 4.5
    Mar-11 6.9
    Apr-11 6.8
    May-11 8.1
    Jun-11 9.4
    Jul-11 5.9
    Aug-11 5.4
    Sep-11 6.3
    Oct-11 7.2
    Nov-11 4.9
    Dec-11 6.0
    Jan-12 10.3
    Feb-12 5.3
    Mar-12 7.5
    Apr-12 4.1
    May-12 -1.2
    Jun-12 2.4
    Jul-12 -0.1
    Aug-12 5.4
    Sep-12 2.4
    Oct-12 -0.4
    Nov-12 4.5
    Dec-12 1.7
    Jan-13 1.6
    Feb-13 2.0
    Mar-13 1.4
    Apr-13 2.3
    May-13 7.1

    Caveat: model is supposed to use the PM approval three-months before the election. But you don't seriously expect me to lock it away in a drawer till then, do you?

    Rod

    Could you do the 2006-2010 period retrospectively ?

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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737


    Rod

    Could you do the 2006-2010 period retrospectively ?

    Yes, if someone else cares to dig out the IPSOS-MORI PM Approval and 2-Party Vote figures for each month...
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Remember Moore OK, which got devastated by a tornado last week, for the 4th time since 1999?

    The news networks are reporting 2 huge tornadoes are on the ground headed for the Oklahoma City metro area, including Moore. The video from the chasers windshield cameras is compelling.

    Oklahoma City airport has been closed and partially evacuated. As many as possible are in underground tunnels.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2013
    West Sussex local election results by division:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dEdfZV9Vc2JyN1hwRm1tWXMwSEUtRGc#gid=0

    Votes:
    Con: 71,618
    UKIP: 54,751
    LD: 26,882
    Lab: 26,036
    Green: 4,758
    Ind: 2,377
    Others: 267
    TOTAL: 186,689

    Share:
    Con: 38.4%
    UKIP: 29.3%
    LD: 14.4%
    Lab: 13.9%
    Green: 2.5%
    Ind: 1.3%
    Others: 0.1%

    Changes since 2010 general election:

    Con: -13.5%
    UKIP: +24.1%
    LD: -13.0%
    Lab: +0.9%
    Green: +1.6%
    Ind: +1.2%
    Others: -1.3%
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    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Tim_B said:

    Remember Moore OK, which got devastated by a tornado last week, for the 4th time since 1999?

    The news networks are reporting 2 huge tornadoes are on the ground headed for the Oklahoma City metro area, including Moore. The video from the chasers windshield cameras is compelling.

    Oklahoma City airport has been closed and partially evacuated. As many as possible are in underground tunnels.

    Someone should build an underground hotel with an observation dome so people can pay to watch tornados.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Think I might have posted this here before - this is one of the Referendum Party's 1997 election broadcasts:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSXdE8M-9Y4&feature=em-comment_received&lch=email&lc=r-ASFD-vq9Twoxz3I9MEmbl9EVKy5CX54y-R7Rx5LD0
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    Sean_F said:

    Sean T, there is truth in Parris' article. It is so very easy to scapegoat others for one's own failings. But, it is so very wrong to deny that the Western ruling classes share an outlook that is inimical to the interests and values of the average Western voter.

    The tricky difficult problems for the ruling class are the ones where the interests of the voters, as they see them, aren't best served by their values.

    The establishment right has used this by pretending to agree with the voters' views of the problems but not doing much about them in practice. The voters go along with because they know the establishment left would do even less.

    Competition on the right ruins this approach, because talking up a problem just invites the voters to support a party that looks like it would actually do something about it. The classic case will be the EU benefits thing, where the government has made laws they know are illegal and lined up a showdown with the EU ahead of the elections. This would be great for them if there was no UKIP, but now...
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    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    AndyJS said:

    Think I might have posted this here before - this is one of the Referendum Party's 1997 election broadcasts:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSXdE8M-9Y4&feature=em-comment_received&lch=email&lc=r-ASFD-vq9Twoxz3I9MEmbl9EVKy5CX54y-R7Rx5LD0

    My favourite bit of that video is at 8:02 where the position of his right arm suddenly changes at an edit point. I noticed it straight away when I first watched it, and have remembered it ever since.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
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    redcliffe62redcliffe62 Posts: 342
    I think there is a fear that if UKIP are allowed in the broadcasts the public will lose the perception that a vote for anyone other than the big two and a half is a wasted vote.
    The history of the SNP being allowed broadcasts in Scotland let alone the UK, where the transmitters in the north of England actually send signals into Scotland, is a case in point.
    That the Scottish Government broadcasts are not even shown in border areas at sensible times is a disgrace, if at all, but media control is sacrosanct to getting an outcome.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Good morning, everyone.

    Odd weather. Seems it's either very nice indeed or overcast with near constant rain.
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    PBModeratorPBModerator Posts: 661
    NEW THREAD
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