Back in the early days of his leadership, Miliband and his advisers liked to compare themselves with Margaret Thatcher. They admired her conviction and the way she transformed Britain by smashing an economic consensus. The Milibandites described their ambition as similarly ‘Thatcheresque’.
Yet Mrs Thatcher once said: ‘The Old Testament prophets did not say, “Brothers, I want a consensus.” They said, “This is my faith. This is what I passionately believe. If you believe it, too, then come with me.”’
The trouble for Ed Miliband is that he has told us what he believes, but, lethally for him and the Labour Party, fewer and fewer people believe him or want to come with him, as events in Rochester showed.
In other words, Kettering is much more like Clacton than Rochester from a UKIP point of view, according to Goodwin's list.
Therefore Hollobone might well still be persuaded to defect, if he can be convinced that his putative "win" would more resemble Carswell's than Reckless's.
OT posting this before I forget as it may be some kind of omen: Last night I dreamed that I was at the Labour Party conference and one of the shadow cabinet had to resign suddenly, and I was asked to take over. I had about 5 minutes to write a speech that was supposed to announce some policies, but nobody could think of anything specific the ministry in question was actually responsible for.
I ended up improvising a version of the Shipping Forecast but with the shipping areas replaced for government ministers and the weather replaced for abusive things about them, eg "Pickles: Fat, becoming lard-arsed later". It went down pretty well. I know quite a few politicians read this site - feel free to use this when you're up against it. You can thank me later.
OT posting this before I forget as it may be some kind of omen: Last night I dreamed that I was at the Labour Party conference and one of the shadow cabinet had to resign suddenly, and I was asked to take over. I had about 5 minutes to write a speech that was supposed to announce some policies, but nobody could think of anything specific the ministry in question was actually responsible for.
I ended up improvising a version of the Shipping Forecast but with the shipping areas replaced for government ministers and the weather replaced for abusive things about them, eg "Pickles: Fat, becoming lard-arsed later". It went down pretty well. I know quite a few politicians read this site - feel free to use this when you're up against it. You can thank me later.
Agree with Mr Herdson down thread - "Hope" is much more important for UKIP than "expectations management" at this stage - they've got to get past "wasted vote" and "can't win here" - and after securing a mid to low teens percentage of the vote, but only a handful of seats can point to the "unfair" voting system as something else they - and their supporters - are "victims" of.
Some of our more excitable PBers and media commentaterate need a heavy dose of reality - it was a by-election you plonkers !!
Nigel Farage Will Never Be Prime Minister
Just could, though, and the thought gives me the shudders, be king-maker.
Incidentally, am I the only person who feels sorry for Emily Thornberry? If someone wants to put up a St Geoges flag, good luck to them. But three? I think I might be tempted to take a picvture of that! It’s not as if she’s got a public school & Oxford background, either.
I had hoped to see people from this site last night at Dirty Dick’s, but alas there was too much chaos on the tubes and buses to make that possible.
I had particularly wanted to be able to thank Mike Smithson for running the site - and the others who have written articles for it. This is because I have decided to leave. Although I have had a lot of enjoyment, and not a little instruction, from the site over the years, I have noticed that I have found it less and less of a pleasant part of the internet (I am referring now of course to the comments, not the articles). More particularly, I regret having, on a few occasions, got sucked into the aggression which seems to be more and more a feature of the comments –as I remember it, when Mike started, there was virtually none at all. And people more and more seem to think of the site as a good place for electioneering of an increasingly rough-and-tumble variety – and even for reposting newspaper articles (which may make the people who do it feel good about themselves).
So: I am off. I hope at least one or two of you will miss me, but if not, so be it. Once again, thanks to Mike. I’ll have to find something else to help me wake up!
Some of our more excitable PBers and media commentaterate need a heavy dose of reality - it was a by-election you plonkers !!
Nigel Farage Will Never Be Prime Minister
Just could, though, and the thought gives me the shudders, be king-maker.
Incidentally, am I the only person who feels sorry for Emily Thornberry? If someone wants to put up a St Geoges flag, good luck to them. But three? I think I might be tempted to take a picvture of that! It’s not as if she’s got a public school & Oxford background, either.
But she had seen a house with union flags all over it a couple of years ago and tweeted it. So claiming she was posting it because she had never seen anything like it before would be stretching the actualité more than a little. Imo the damage was less the initial tweet than the follow up attempts to shift the blame to people being prejudiced against Islington, and then prevarication and attempts to fudge the issue.
As an aside, hyperbolic headlines is what The Express does. I'm surprised they managed to keep it down to 40 MPs. It'd have been more in their style to go with UKIP to win 400. or even 4000.
Some Kippers may believe they'll get 40and that may make the betting for the rest of us more profitable.
Some of our more excitable PBers and media commentaterate need a heavy dose of reality - it was a by-election you plonkers !!
Nigel Farage Will Never Be Prime Minister
Come on JackW, and a good morning to you and all PBers, you know that if UKIP continues on its upward curve, it will be averaging around 22% country-wide by May 7th 2015. Admittedly it's a big if, for non Kippers to take seriously, but UKIP have been confounding the consensus for 3 years now.
I'm really sorry not to have been at DDs last night, it seems to have been a great gathering.
I had hoped to see people from this site last night at Dirty Dick’s, but alas there was too much chaos on the tubes and buses to make that possible.
I had particularly wanted to be able to thank Mike Smithson for running the site - and the others who have written articles for it. This is because I have decided to leave. Although I have had a lot of enjoyment, and not a little instruction, from the site over the years, I have noticed that I have found it less and less of a pleasant part of the internet (I am referring now of course to the comments, not the articles). More particularly, I regret having, on a few occasions, got sucked into the aggression which seems to be more and more a feature of the comments –as I remember it, when Mike started, there was virtually none at all. And people more and more seem to think of the site as a good place for electioneering of an increasingly rough-and-tumble variety – and even for reposting newspaper articles (which may make the people who do it feel good about themselves).
So: I am off. I hope at least one or two of you will miss me, but if not, so be it. Once again, thanks to Mike. I’ll have to find something else to help me wake up!
Are you still going, @Innocent_Abroad? Reminds me of that old Marx Brothers song, "Hallo, I must be Going". " I'm Going, Yes I'm Going.........."
In 2010 Mark Reckless won 49.2% and his challenger won 28.5% giving him a 20.7% lead. In 2014 he won 42.1% and his nearest challenger won 34.8% giving him a 7.3% lead. Does that make the swing against Reckless 13.4%?
Some of our more excitable PBers and media commentaterate need a heavy dose of reality - it was a by-election you plonkers !!
Nigel Farage Will Never Be Prime Minister
Just could, though, and the thought gives me the shudders, be king-maker.
Incidentally, am I the only person who feels sorry for Emily Thornberry? If someone wants to put up a St Geoges flag, good luck to them. But three? I think I might be tempted to take a picvture of that! It’s not as if she’s got a public school & Oxford background, either.
But she had seen a house with union flags all over it a couple of years ago and tweeted it. So claiming she was posting it because she had never seen anything like it before would be stretching the actualité more than a little. Imo the damage was less the initial tweet than the follow up attempts to shift the blame to people being prejudiced against Islington, and then prevarication and attempts to fudge the issue.
She richly deserved the sack. She was presentationally poor, being smug and arrogant in turns, and is not going to be missed. Being sacked for a tweet is a bit of an overreaction, but her tweet and attempted defence were in character.
There will be a lot more purging to be done of that front bench to make Labour electable again. It is 1983 repeated, and a whole new generation needed to replace those soiled by the last labour government.
Some of our more excitable PBers and media commentaterate need a heavy dose of reality - it was a by-election you plonkers !!
Nigel Farage Will Never Be Prime Minister
Just could, though, and the thought gives me the shudders, be king-maker.
Incidentally, am I the only person who feels sorry for Emily Thornberry? If someone wants to put up a St Geoges flag, good luck to them. But three? I think I might be tempted to take a picvture of that! It’s not as if she’s got a public school & Oxford background, either.
But she had seen a house with union flags all over it a couple of years ago and tweeted it. So claiming she was posting it because she had never seen anything like it before would be stretching the actualité more than a little. Imo the damage was less the initial tweet than the follow up attempts to shift the blame to people being prejudiced against Islington, and then prevarication and attempts to fudge the issue.
Ah, thanks, Mr I. Wasn’t aware she’d got form for tweeting such pictures. Silly thing to do once, damn silly to do it twice. And as you say it’s the twisting and turning, blame shifting etc that, as usual, caused as much trouble as the original tweet.
I neither tweet nor follow tweets. I message and email and have a Facebook page, but by not tweeting or following am I missing an important part of modern life?
As I said yesterday, when you are a new party that has, until last month, never had an MP elected to Westminster, you face a problem of people wanting to vote for you but frightened of wasting their vote on a party with no chance of winning.
That meme has to be dissipated comprehensively , and that is exactly what Fargle is doing. Far better to win 10 seats and have Libdems sneering that you over egged your forecast than issue a moderate forecast and have two seats.
What matters is winning the seats. Nothing else counts. Fargles strategy of bigging up expectations is the right thing to do.
Incidentally, am I the only person who feels sorry for Emily Thornberry? If someone wants to put up a St Geoges flag, good luck to them. But three? I think I might be tempted to take a picvture of that! It’s not as if she’s got a public school & Oxford background, either.
You probably are. She may not be a public school girl but she comes from a better background than the Guardian would have you believe.
Anyway, that's not important. There's nothing wrong with being successful, there's nothing wrong with private education. No, what's wrong is she's supposed to represent the working people.
For people like her, being on the left is a fashion statement. When they see how their constituents live they are repulsed.
The fault lines of British Politics are changing. Gone are the days of the bourgeoisie and the proletariat. Today the divisions are between the 'enlightened professionals' and the rest of the population.
UKIP might not do very well in terms of sears next year. But the landscape might look quite different in terms of what seats are considered marginal and the working people in traditionally safe Labour seats finally have an alternative to consider.
O/T Good news for Findlay backers in the Scottish Labour race. Earlier this week his team calculated he was just 6% behind Murphy. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-30080313 It looks about right to me. If he can keep momentum over the next 2-3 weeks he could cause a shock. Currently at 4/1 which is value. I'd make it 9/4.
Good morning all and where is Herders? His loyal followers demand a Public Enquiry or a Royal Commission to investigate this serious breach of Saturday protocol.
On UKIP, will Douglas Carswell become party leader after 8th May when he proves to be their only MP?
As I said yesterday, when you are a new party that has, until last month, never had an MP elected to Westminster, you face a problem of people wanting to vote for you but frightened of wasting their vote on a party with no chance of winning.
That meme has to be dissipated comprehensively , and that is exactly what Fargle is doing. Far better to win 10 seats and have Libdems sneering that you over egged your forecast than issue a moderate forecast and have two seats.
What matters is winning the seats. Nothing else counts. Fargles strategy of bigging up expectations is the right thing to do.
Good morning all and where is Herders? His loyal followers demand a Public Enquiry or a Royal Commission to investigate this serious breach of Saturday protocol.
On UKIP, will Douglas Carswell become party leader after 8th May when he proves to be their only MP?
Incidentally, am I the only person who feels sorry for Emily Thornberry? If someone wants to put up a St Geoges flag, good luck to them. But three? I think I might be tempted to take a picvture of that! It’s not as if she’s got a public school & Oxford background, either.
You probably are. She may not be a public school girl but she comes from a better background than the Guardian would have you believe.
Anyway, that's not important. There's nothing wrong with being successful, there's nothing wrong with private education. No, what's wrong is she's supposed to represent the working people.
For people like her, being on the left is a fashion statement. When they see how their constituents live they are repulsed.
The fault lines of British Politics are changing. Gone are the days of the bourgeoisie and the proletariat. Today the divisions are between the 'enlightened professionals' and the rest of the population.
UKIP might not do very well in terms of sears next year. But the landscape might look quite different in terms of what seats are considered marginal and the working people in traditionally safe Labour seats finally have an alternative to consider.
Yes, I knew, more or less, about her background ...... significant downshifting after parents divorce etc.
Good morning all and where is Herders? His loyal followers demand a Public Enquiry or a Royal Commission to investigate this serious breach of Saturday protocol.
On UKIP, will Douglas Carswell become party leader after 8th May when he proves to be their only MP?
Give it up @Easterross, you won't get any bites for your hook. Go fishing elsewhere, perhaps in one of your Scottish rivers.
As I said yesterday, when you are a new party that has, until last month, never had an MP elected to Westminster, you face a problem of people wanting to vote for you but frightened of wasting their vote on a party with no chance of winning.
That meme has to be dissipated comprehensively , and that is exactly what Fargle is doing. Far better to win 10 seats and have Libdems sneering that you over egged your forecast than issue a moderate forecast and have two seats.
What matters is winning the seats. Nothing else counts. Fargles strategy of bigging up expectations is the right thing to do.
I sometimes wonder if those who think the Thornberry story will have any effect at the next GE let alone a seismic one know anything about politics at all . Just cast your minds back to 2010 and the Brown bigot gate story . It did not even change the voting intention of the woman Brown called a bigot .
Not directly, but indirectly by damaging party morale and causing the division. It's not the tweet that did the damage but the forced apology and sacking by an OTT Ed Stalinband.
O/T Good news for Findlay backers in the Scottish Labour race. Earlier this week his team calculated he was just 6% behind Murphy. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-30080313 It looks about right to me. If he can keep momentum over the next 2-3 weeks he could cause a shock. Currently at 4/1 which is value. I'd make it 9/4.
Thanks Henry.
I know Findlay is the Union choice, but is he any more authentically working class than Ed?
Good morning all and where is Herders? His loyal followers demand a Public Enquiry or a Royal Commission to investigate this serious breach of Saturday protocol.
On UKIP, will Douglas Carswell become party leader after 8th May when he proves to be their only MP?
Hasn't Farage said that he will step down if not elected to Westminster? I vaguely recall that.
Carswell was unimpressive on QT the other night, though Louise Bours was terrible on AQ.
Reckless is going to be another loose cannon, but is now going to be prominent as the face of UKIP.
As I said yesterday, when you are a new party that has, until last month, never had an MP elected to Westminster, you face a problem of people wanting to vote for you but frightened of wasting their vote on a party with no chance of winning.
That meme has to be dissipated comprehensively , and that is exactly what Fargle is doing. Far better to win 10 seats and have Libdems sneering that you over egged your forecast than issue a moderate forecast and have two seats.
What matters is winning the seats. Nothing else counts. Fargles strategy of bigging up expectations is the right thing to do.
Yeah but this is the Central Bedesian Federation (comprising Mid Bedesia, South Bedesia and Linsladeland) as my Libdem mate calls it. We've even got a green and white flag.....
Some of our more excitable PBers and media commentaterate need a heavy dose of reality - it was a by-election you plonkers !!
Nigel Farage Will Never Be Prime Minister
Just could, though, and the thought gives me the shudders, be king-maker.
A tad difficult to be kingmaker with only a handful of seats.
More likely for Salmond to be kingmaker.
I think a Con minority government the most likely outcome. I cannot see any party entering formal coalition with either Labour or Conservatives after seeing what has happened to the Libdems.
It is only when we experience minority government that people will see that the LD/Con coalition was a golden era of sane government.
Some of our more excitable PBers and media commentaterate need a heavy dose of reality - it was a by-election you plonkers !!
Nigel Farage Will Never Be Prime Minister
Come on JackW, and a good morning to you and all PBers, you know that if UKIP continues on its upward curve, it will be averaging around 22% country-wide by May 7th 2015. Admittedly it's a big if, for non Kippers to take seriously, but UKIP have been confounding the consensus for 3 years now.
Even on 22% Ukip will fail just as the Alliance did in 1983 with a vast number of good second places and few non incumbent wins.
Ukip will only score around <12% as voters turn to the reality of governing choices rather than the indulgence of the traditional by-election arse kicking of a government or the broad irrelevance of the European elections.
Some of our more excitable PBers and media commentaterate need a heavy dose of reality - it was a by-election you plonkers !!
Nigel Farage Will Never Be Prime Minister
Come on JackW, and a good morning to you and all PBers, you know that if UKIP continues on its upward curve, it will be averaging around 22% country-wide by May 7th 2015. Admittedly it's a big if, for non Kippers to take seriously, but UKIP have been confounding the consensus for 3 years now.
2.5 years ago I placed a bt on UKIP winning the Euro's. It was a nice little earner. That said here is my 2 pennyworth. MikeK, when the LDs were surging at times such as by elections there were often surveys that they quoted saying 2 in 3 voters would consider voting for them etc etc. What the LDs had at that time was also a warm and cuddly image among the majority of voters. They were most voters "2nd choice".
For various reasons, not the least a more hostile interogative media, UKIP do not have the advantages that the LDs used to have. There is therefore a much lower level of maximum support, which becomes more important at an election with a 70% turnout than ones with 50% or less turnout. I cannot recall the exact numbers quoited for voters that might vote UKIP but believe it to be closer to 35%. Obviously that is potentially higher in elections with low turnouts. But in GEs it becomes a limiter.
If an opposition party is not getting 22%+ regularly in national polls now, it will just not get that at a GE in 6 months. Just as Labour's support will fall back a bit so will UKIPs. What is unpredictable is how far UKIP will fall back.
I see Sky are broadcasting a speech by Reckless this morning. Is he going to introduce Hollobone as the new defector? Seems a distinct possibility as I cannot imagine the speech being very newsworthy otherwise.
Quite agree with the headline conclusion, but recently Farage has been delivering (winning the European elections, and retaining, sort of, two seats at Westminster).
In unrelated news, Dragon Age Inquisition is quite big.
F1: P3 is 10-11am. So, I'll aim to have the pre-qualifying piece up before midday.
O/T Good news for Findlay backers in the Scottish Labour race. Earlier this week his team calculated he was just 6% behind Murphy. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-30080313 It looks about right to me. If he can keep momentum over the next 2-3 weeks he could cause a shock. Currently at 4/1 which is value. I'd make it 9/4.
Thanks Henry.
I know Findlay is the Union choice, but is he any more authentically working class than Ed?
Have to say Findlay appears to have come from the Labour grass roots. He was a time served tradesman (joiner I think) before becoming a union man leading to his calling as an MSP.
If you had a minority Tory Govt. with Salmond sitting on a bloc of 20+ seats, I wonder if it would be possible to have just England and Wales boundary changes passed?
Some of our more excitable PBers and media commentaterate need a heavy dose of reality - it was a by-election you plonkers !!
Nigel Farage Will Never Be Prime Minister
Come on JackW, and a good morning to you and all PBers, you know that if UKIP continues on its upward curve, it will be averaging around 22% country-wide by May 7th 2015. Admittedly it's a big if, for non Kippers to take seriously, but UKIP have been confounding the consensus for 3 years now.
Even on 22% Ukip will fail just as the Alliance did in 1983 with a vast number of good second places and few non incumbent wins.
Ukip will only score around (less than) 12% as voters turn to the reality of governing choices rather than the indulgence of the traditional by-election arse kicking of a government or the broad irrelevance of the European elections.
Some of our more excitable PBers and media commentaterate need a heavy dose of reality - it was a by-election you plonkers !!
Nigel Farage Will Never Be Prime Minister
Just could, though, and the thought gives me the shudders, be king-maker.
A tad difficult to be kingmaker with only a handful of seats.
More likely for Salmond to be kingmaker.
I think a Con minority government the most likely outcome. I cannot see any party entering formal coalition with either Labour or Conservatives after seeing what has happened to the Libdems.
It is only when we experience minority government that people will see that the LD/Con coalition was a golden era of sane government.
Absolutely not.
The SNP will not put the Conservatives in power at any price and a weak minority government will put the economic recovery at risk.
It comes down to bums on seats but a broadly a Con/LibDem Coalition MkII looks likely as the latest ARSE indicates.
Ed Miliband will resign a day or so after the general election and Farage MP will be highly animated at his failure to garner more than half a dozen MPs at the outside. The SNP will have more than doubled their seats but to little Westminster effect and the irony of FPTP coming to the aid of the LibDems will see Nick Clegg laughing all the way to the Deputy PM's office.
Some of our more excitable PBers and media commentaterate need a heavy dose of reality - it was a by-election you plonkers !!
Nigel Farage Will Never Be Prime Minister
Come on JackW, and a good morning to you and all PBers, you know that if UKIP continues on its upward curve, it will be averaging around 22% country-wide by May 7th 2015. Admittedly it's a big if, for non Kippers to take seriously, but UKIP have been confounding the consensus for 3 years now.
Even on 22% Ukip will fail just as the Alliance did in 1983 with a vast number of good second places and few non incumbent wins.
Some of our more excitable PBers and media commentaterate need a heavy dose of reality - it was a by-election you plonkers !!
Nigel Farage Will Never Be Prime Minister
Come on JackW, and a good morning to you and all PBers, you know that if UKIP continues on its upward curve, it will be averaging around 22% country-wide by May 7th 2015. Admittedly it's a big if, for non Kippers to take seriously, but UKIP have been confounding the consensus for 3 years now.
Even on 22% Ukip will fail just as the Alliance did in 1983 with a vast number of good second places and few non incumbent wins.
Ukip will only score around (less than) 12% as voters turn to the reality of governing choices rather than the indulgence of the traditional by-election arse kicking of a government or the broad irrelevance of the European elections.
So what are we expecting in the polls this evening (if there are any other than YouGov)? UKIP at 250%, Tories at 25%, Labour at 40%, LibDems at 5% or will we get something realistic?
Can it be anything other than a matter of time until even ComRes and Survation start polling Labour in the 20s?
Incidentally is there something about treacherous pig dog defectors? Aged 40 something and looking like 60 somethings. Even Farage looks old enough to be my father and I'm 4 years older than him. In 10 years time with his smoking and drinking he will look old enough to be my grandfather.
Some of our more excitable PBers and media commentaterate need a heavy dose of reality - it was a by-election you plonkers !!
Nigel Farage Will Never Be Prime Minister
Just could, though, and the thought gives me the shudders, be king-maker.
A tad difficult to be kingmaker with only a handful of seats.
More likely for Salmond to be kingmaker.
I think a Con minority government the most likely outcome. I cannot see any party entering formal coalition with either Labour or Conservatives after seeing what has happened to the Libdems.
It is only when we experience minority government that people will see that the LD/Con coalition was a golden era of sane government.
Absolutely not.
The SNP will not put the Conservatives in power at any price and a weak minority government will put the economic recovery at risk.
It comes down to bums on seats but a broadly a Con/LibDem Coalition MkII looks likely as the latest ARSE indicates.
Ed Miliband will resign a day or so after the general election and Farage MP will be highly animated at his failure to garner more than half a dozen MPs at the outside. The SNP will have more than doubled their seats but to little Westminster effect and the irony of FPTP coming to the aid of the LibDems will see Nick Clegg laughing all the way to the Deputy PM's office.
Funny old world.
You dont favour the CON/SNP CarveupMax option then. SNP gets DevoUltra, Cameron gets EV4EL and the Boundary Changes, then they call a new election.
The real fun with Findlay comes if he managed to scrape through and then faces SLAB MSPs and MPs who had voted massively for Murphy and not him. It would make Ed Miliband look popular (amogst Lab MPs). So far 16 for Findlay and 40 for Murphy.
Sorry you're leaving. Your comments are always thoughtful. I too find the spamming of newspaper articles/latest dribblings of Guido among the duller content of this site. But hey ho.
On Thornberry, I'm no great fan of flags draped all over the house. There's a place for a flag, and it's on a pole in the garden or at a sporting event. And as I see myself as British, I prefer the union ones. I suspect many on PB have had similar thoughts to Thornberry when noting an ostentatious display, be it flags or christmas lights. Tweeting it wasn't sensible, but nor was it the disaster that Milliband made it.
Interesting racing at Haydock today. It just might be soft enough for Harry Topper to run well in the Betfair Chase.
As I said yesterday, when you are a new party that has, until last month, never had an MP elected to Westminster, you face a problem of people wanting to vote for you but frightened of wasting their vote on a party with no chance of winning.
That meme has to be dissipated comprehensively , and that is exactly what Fargle is doing. Far better to win 10 seats and have Libdems sneering that you over egged your forecast than issue a moderate forecast and have two seats.
What matters is winning the seats. Nothing else counts. Fargles strategy of bigging up expectations is the right thing to do.
Yeah but this is the Central Bedesian Federation (comprising Mid Bedesia, South Bedesia and Linsladeland) as my Libdem mate calls it. We've even got a green and white flag.....
Do you have splits like Farageistas vs Carswellites a la People Front of Judea?
Some of our more excitable PBers and media commentaterate need a heavy dose of reality - it was a by-election you plonkers !!
Nigel Farage Will Never Be Prime Minister
Just could, though, and the thought gives me the shudders, be king-maker.
A tad difficult to be kingmaker with only a handful of seats.
More likely for Salmond to be kingmaker.
I think a Con minority government the most likely outcome. I cannot see any party entering formal coalition with either Labour or Conservatives after seeing what has happened to the Libdems.
It is only when we experience minority government that people will see that the LD/Con coalition was a golden era of sane government.
Absolutely not.
The SNP will not put the Conservatives in power at any price and a weak minority government will put the economic recovery at risk.
It comes down to bums on seats but a broadly a Con/LibDem Coalition MkII looks likely as the latest ARSE indicates.
Ed Miliband will resign a day or so after the general election and Farage MP will be highly animated at his failure to garner more than half a dozen MPs at the outside. The SNP will have more than doubled their seats but to little Westminster effect and the irony of FPTP coming to the aid of the LibDems will see Nick Clegg laughing all the way to the Deputy PM's office.
Funny old world.
No doubt Forage will be bemoaning the loss of his trouserable allowances, and the inconvenience of accounting for expenses.
JackW, would a minority Govt by the Conservatives put economic recovery at risk because of the risk of being voted down at times? The financial bill would have to be carried or have a new GE. If the Govt played it smart enough a period of minimal law change, may actually help the economy.
OT posting this before I forget as it may be some kind of omen: Last night I dreamed that I was at the Labour Party conference and one of the shadow cabinet had to resign suddenly, and I was asked to take over. I had about 5 minutes to write a speech that was supposed to announce some policies, but nobody could think of anything specific the ministry in question was actually responsible for.
I ended up improvising a version of the Shipping Forecast but with the shipping areas replaced for government ministers and the weather replaced for abusive things about them, eg "Pickles: Fat, becoming lard-arsed later". It went down pretty well. I know quite a few politicians read this site - feel free to use this when you're up against it. You can thank me later.
Some of our more excitable PBers and media commentaterate need a heavy dose of reality - it was a by-election you plonkers !!
Nigel Farage Will Never Be Prime Minister
Just could, though, and the thought gives me the shudders, be king-maker.
A tad difficult to be kingmaker with only a handful of seats.
More likely for Salmond to be kingmaker.
I think a Con minority government the most likely outcome. I cannot see any party entering formal coalition with either Labour or Conservatives after seeing what has happened to the Libdems.
It is only when we experience minority government that people will see that the LD/Con coalition was a golden era of sane government.
Absolutely not.
The SNP will not put the Conservatives in power at any price and a weak minority government will put the economic recovery at risk.
It comes down to bums on seats but a broadly a Con/LibDem Coalition MkII looks likely as the latest ARSE indicates.
Ed Miliband will resign a day or so after the general election and Farage MP will be highly animated at his failure to garner more than half a dozen MPs at the outside. The SNP will have more than doubled their seats but to little Westminster effect and the irony of FPTP coming to the aid of the LibDems will see Nick Clegg laughing all the way to the Deputy PM's office.
Funny old world.
No doubt Forage will be bemoaning the loss of his trouserable allowances, and the inconvenience of accounting for expenses.
But who would Dave do a deal with if his choice for coalition was 15 LDs or 8 DUP + 7 UKIP ?
Sorry you're leaving. Your comments are always thoughtful. I too find the spamming of newspaper articles/latest dribblings of Guido among the duller content of this site. But hey ho.
Did Innocent Abroad actually mention those two things? If so I missed them.
Guido is the No.1 political website in the country for exposing cant and hypocrisy amongst politicians of all parties. I never read the comments, which are awful, and I find some of his right-wing bias too much, even for me, especially the ghastly pro-Israel nonsense (like Con Home) but it's important and links to it when appropriate seem perfectly reasonable.
And surely the same applies to linking newspaper articles? We need to have informed debate on here as well as knowing the current drivers in the media narrative.
The rudeness of some people, and I'm sorry but it's often you-kippers, is the thing which drags the site down. Having a go at a party is one thing, getting personally insulting is another. There's really no need for it.
(Cue some kipper telling me to stop being parsimonious)
Good morning all and where is Herders? His loyal followers demand a Public Enquiry or a Royal Commission to investigate this serious breach of Saturday protocol.
On UKIP, will Douglas Carswell become party leader after 8th May when he proves to be their only MP?
Hasn't Farage said that he will step down if not elected to Westminster?
An interviewer tried to find a circumstance where he would admit failure, and retire from politics. I think he was presented with the hypothetical situation where UKIP had:
1. Not won the 2014 EU Parliament elections
and
2. Done badly at the 2014 local elections
and
3. Not got any MPs elected in the 2015 general election.
When Ed does resign in early May, what is he going to do? His big brother has already bagged International Rescue. I fear he may have to spend his days sat behind Troy Tempest in Stingray....
But what if the SNP with 20 seats do not vote on English legislation? With no SF MPs attending, then instead of needing 326 votes, Cameron would only need about 300 seats for most items.
When Ed does resign in early May, what is he going to do? His big brother has already bagged International Rescue. I fear he may have to spend his days sat behind Troy Tempest in Stingray....
He could always go back to the trade or profession he had before he went into politics... no.. wait ...
Some of our more excitable PBers and media commentaterate need a heavy dose of reality - it was a by-election you plonkers !!
Nigel Farage Will Never Be Prime Minister
Just could, though, and the thought gives me the shudders, be king-maker.
A tad difficult to be kingmaker with only a handful of seats.
More likely for Salmond to be kingmaker.
I think a Con minority government the most likely outcome. I cannot see any party entering formal coalition with either Labour or Conservatives after seeing what has happened to the Libdems.
It is only when we experience minority government that people will see that the LD/Con coalition was a golden era of sane government.
Absolutely not.
The SNP will not put the Conservatives in power at any price and a weak minority government will put the economic recovery at risk.
It comes down to bums on seats but a broadly a Con/LibDem Coalition MkII looks likely as the latest ARSE indicates.
Ed Miliband will resign a day or so after the general election and Farage MP will be highly animated at his failure to garner more than half a dozen MPs at the outside. The SNP will have more than doubled their seats but to little Westminster effect and the irony of FPTP coming to the aid of the LibDems will see Nick Clegg laughing all the way to the Deputy PM's office.
Funny old world.
You dont favour the CON/SNP CarveupMax option then. SNP gets DevoUltra, Cameron gets EV4EL and the Boundary Changes, then they call a new election.
No.
Much of the SNP strategy, and more so recently, is predicated on hoovering up swathes of Labour support. They will not undermine that by propping up a minority Conservative government and in terms Sturgeon has indicated thus.
But what if the SNP with 20 seats do not vote on English legislation? With no SF MPs attending, then instead of needing 326 votes, Cameron would only need about 300 seats for most items.
Whilst the SNP have a historic track record of voting with the Tories (after all they are responsible for Thatcher) their position at Holyrood would be destroyed if they propped up a Tory rump after 2015. So they are unlikely to do it.
So what are we expecting in the polls this evening (if there are any other than YouGov)? UKIP at 250%, Tories at 25%, Labour at 40%, LibDems at 5% or will we get something realistic?
Can it be anything other than a matter of time until even ComRes and Survation start polling Labour in the 20s? .
I may well be wrong but I think the next big benchmark is if the Conservatives can hit and hold 35%. I'm looking to 37-38% minimum on May 7th and 35% now would be a very good sign.
Will the flag saga hit Labour and help UKIP? Given how The Sun have run with this, the answer is possibly 'yes.'
Having said that, the polls have a delightful way of confounding. We may see a Labour lead
JackW, would a minority Govt by the Conservatives put economic recovery at risk because of the risk of being voted down at times? The financial bill would have to be carried or have a new GE. If the Govt played it smart enough a period of minimal law change, may actually help the economy.
No.
Uncertainty is the curse in the markets and a minority government has uncertainty at its very core and accordingly has the very vitals of the recovery in its febrile grasp.
A Coalition would provide certainty for five more years whether you agree with its' policies or not.
What has Reckless got to say that is worth a speech today? Unless it is to announce another defection.
It better not be another announcement that some donor is going to give them another fifty quid, or the press is not going to be impressed getting dragged away from their breakfast.
Some of our more excitable PBers and media commentaterate need a heavy dose of reality - it was a by-election you plonkers !!
Nigel Farage Will Never Be Prime Minister
In April this year Clacton was priced at 100-1 for UKIP with Ladbrokes. It's currently 1-10.
It's a brave man that puts down 100 to win a pound - there has to be a greater risk than that of Carswell having a fundamental falling out with the skin draped over ambition that is Nigel Farage....
I had hoped to see people from this site to-night (Friday) at Dirty Dick’s, but alas there was too much chaos on the tubes and buses to make that possible.
I had particularly wanted to be able to thank Mike Smithson for running the site - and the others who have written articles for it. This is because I have decided to leave. Although I have had a lot of enjoyment, and not a little instruction, from the site over the years, I have noticed that I have found it less and less of a pleasant part of the internet (I am referring now of course to the comments, not the articles). More particularly, I regret having, on a few occasions, got sucked into the aggression which seems to be more and more a feature of the comments –as I remember it, when Mike started, there was virtually none at all. And people more and more seem to think of the site as a good place for electioneering of an increasingly rough-and-tumble variety – and even for reposting newspaper articles - which may make the people who do it feel good about themselves .
So: I am off. I hope one or two of you will miss me, but if not, so be it. Once again, thanks to Mike. I’ll have to find something else to help me wake up!
I’ll repost this in the morning, and then that really will be “adieu”.
Dear Mr Innocent Abroad,
I am sorry to hear that you feel bullied off the site and if I have ever contributed to that I apologise.
In terms of being sucked into aggression I can only agree, I try to post constructive comments that might be of interest to those who enjoy a flutter but cannot help myself when people respond in a rude manner. ie those who only offer invective but cannot bring themselves to try and actually refute what is stated with facts and links and rarely if ever post anything that might be of interest to those of us who do like a flutter.
I hope you reconsider and wish you well.
Swiss Bob
I agree. Don't go. The secret is to take a deep breath before replying. Is it worth wasting minutes typing a response to the trolls?
self indulgent twaddle, man up and either get on wit hit or bug**r off, don't write indulgent claptrap about "bad boys saying nasty things to me". First class whinger.
Some of our more excitable PBers and media commentaterate need a heavy dose of reality - it was a by-election you plonkers !!
Nigel Farage Will Never Be Prime Minister
In April this year Clacton was priced at 100-1 for UKIP with Ladbrokes. It's currently 1-10.
It's a brave man that puts down 100 to win a pound - there has to be a greater risk than that of Carswell having a fundamental falling out with the skin draped over ambition that is Nigel Farage....
At 100-1 it must be approaching the odds of "personal circumstance" intervening, never mind falling out with Farage, the combined risk of medical problem, marital problems, skeletons in closets coming to light, accidents etc etc etc must be approaching 1% before you consider the politics.
One fact not widely reported is that the SNP were happy to do a deal with SCONs to get their financial bill through when they were a minority Govt....
In fact it was the SCONs and Auntie Annabel who put Eck into Bute House and kept him there from 2007-2011 by voting through his finance bill each year when they were opposed by SLAB and the LibDems who had spent 8 years in coalition.
I see Sky are broadcasting a speech by Reckless this morning. Is he going to introduce Hollobone as the new defector? Seems a distinct possibility as I cannot imagine the speech being very newsworthy otherwise.
Some of our more excitable PBers and media commentaterate need a heavy dose of reality - it was a by-election you plonkers !!
Nigel Farage Will Never Be Prime Minister
Just could, though, and the thought gives me the shudders, be king-maker.
A tad difficult to be kingmaker with only a handful of seats.
More likely for Salmond to be kingmaker.
I think a Con minority government the most likely outcome. I cannot see any party entering formal coalition with either Labour or Conservatives after seeing what has happened to the Libdems.
It is only when we experience minority government that people will see that the LD/Con coalition was a golden era of sane government.
Absolutely not.
The SNP will not put the Conservatives in power at any price and a weak minority government will put the economic recovery at risk.
It comes down to bums on seats but a broadly a Con/LibDem Coalition MkII looks likely as the latest ARSE indicates.
Ed Miliband will resign a day or so after the general election and Farage MP will be highly animated at his failure to garner more than half a dozen MPs at the outside. The SNP will have more than doubled their seats but to little Westminster effect and the irony of FPTP coming to the aid of the LibDems will see Nick Clegg laughing all the way to the Deputy PM's office.
Funny old world.
The SNP would not support a Tory government, but would they support a Miliband one?
Could Farage and Carswell and Reckless support a Tory government (if a promise of a Brexit referendum is no good now, why would it be then?)
Which leaves only the NI, PC and Greens as kingmakers, unless a much diminished LD party goes for another coalition.
If the LDs do support a continuity coalition then they would face the fate of the National Liberals and absorption into the Tories. I think Coalition with Labour would be even more destructive.
I cannot see a viable government other than a minority Con or Labour one, though we will have to see how the seats pan out before being certain.
If there is any press coverage of this event, can we play a game of 'count the English flags' ?
Main features of cost of living:
- Food, artificially inflated by a few hundred quid a year due to the CAP - Energy, spiking because energy companies need huge capex after years of Labour underinvestment - Housing, rocketing because huge population rises due to mass immigration
Comments
Therefore Hollobone might well still be persuaded to defect, if he can be convinced that his putative "win" would more resemble Carswell's than Reckless's.
I ended up improvising a version of the Shipping Forecast but with the shipping areas replaced for government ministers and the weather replaced for abusive things about them, eg "Pickles: Fat, becoming lard-arsed later". It went down pretty well. I know quite a few politicians read this site - feel free to use this when you're up against it. You can thank me later.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b04vfmfz/house-of-commons-1989-queens-speech-debate
RIP Ian Gow, Bob Cryer, Tony Banks, Derek Fatchett, Margaret Ewing, et al...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqq0HcCbKzc
I suspect that Goodwin's methodology is marginally short of perfection. Alas.
Nigel Farage Will Never Be Prime Minister
Incidentally, am I the only person who feels sorry for Emily Thornberry? If someone wants to put up a St Geoges flag, good luck to them. But three? I think I might be tempted to take a picvture of that!
It’s not as if she’s got a public school & Oxford background, either.
I had hoped to see people from this site last night at Dirty Dick’s, but alas there was too much chaos on the tubes and buses to make that possible.
I had particularly wanted to be able to thank Mike Smithson for running the site - and the others who have written articles for it. This is because I have decided to leave. Although I have had a lot of enjoyment, and not a little instruction, from the site over the years, I have noticed that I have found it less and less of a pleasant part of the internet (I am referring now of course to the comments, not the articles). More particularly, I regret having, on a few occasions, got sucked into the aggression which seems to be more and more a feature of the comments –as I remember it, when Mike started, there was virtually none at all. And people more and more seem to think of the site as a good place for electioneering of an increasingly rough-and-tumble variety – and even for reposting newspaper articles (which may make the people who do it feel good about themselves).
So: I am off. I hope at least one or two of you will miss me, but if not, so be it. Once again, thanks to Mike. I’ll have to find something else to help me wake up!
twitter.com/EmilyThornberry/status/269113381968048129
I'm really sorry not to have been at DDs last night, it seems to have been a great gathering.
In 2014 he won 42.1% and his nearest challenger won 34.8% giving him a 7.3% lead.
Does that make the swing against Reckless 13.4%?
There will be a lot more purging to be done of that front bench to make Labour electable again. It is 1983 repeated, and a whole new generation needed to replace those soiled by the last labour government.
I neither tweet nor follow tweets. I message and email and have a Facebook page, but by not tweeting or following am I missing an important part of modern life?
That meme has to be dissipated comprehensively , and that is exactly what Fargle is doing. Far better to win 10 seats and have Libdems sneering that you over egged your forecast than issue a moderate forecast and have two seats.
What matters is winning the seats. Nothing else counts. Fargles strategy of bigging up expectations is the right thing to do.
Meanwhile UKIP are standing in Mid Beds for the first time and have announced their candidate, Nigel Wickens, so I will have an alternative to Nadine to vote for, if she insists on remaining in the Conservative Party. http://ukipbedfordshire.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/ukip-ppc-for-mid-bedfordshire-hustings.html
On UKIP, will Douglas Carswell become party leader after 8th May when he proves to be their only MP?
I know Findlay is the Union choice, but is he any more authentically working class than Ed?
Carswell was unimpressive on QT the other night, though Louise Bours was terrible on AQ.
Reckless is going to be another loose cannon, but is now going to be prominent as the face of UKIP.
Many thanks to Fat Steve for arranging last nights gathering at Dirty Dicks.
Cameron dodges another bullet....
I think a Con minority government the most likely outcome. I cannot see any party entering formal coalition with either Labour or Conservatives after seeing what has happened to the Libdems.
It is only when we experience minority government that people will see that the LD/Con coalition was a golden era of sane government.
Ukip will only score around <12% as voters turn to the reality of governing choices rather than the indulgence of the traditional by-election arse kicking of a government or the broad irrelevance of the European elections.
A modest 3-5 seats beckons for the Faragists.
For various reasons, not the least a more hostile interogative media, UKIP do not have the advantages that the LDs used to have. There is therefore a much lower level of maximum support, which becomes more important at an election with a 70% turnout than ones with 50% or less turnout. I cannot recall the exact numbers quoited for voters that might vote UKIP but believe it to be closer to 35%. Obviously that is potentially higher in elections with low turnouts. But in GEs it becomes a limiter.
If an opposition party is not getting 22%+ regularly in national polls now, it will just not get that at a GE in 6 months. Just as Labour's support will fall back a bit so will UKIPs. What is unpredictable is how far UKIP will fall back.
Quite agree with the headline conclusion, but recently Farage has been delivering (winning the European elections, and retaining, sort of, two seats at Westminster).
In unrelated news, Dragon Age Inquisition is quite big.
F1: P3 is 10-11am. So, I'll aim to have the pre-qualifying piece up before midday.
The SNP will not put the Conservatives in power at any price and a weak minority government will put the economic recovery at risk.
It comes down to bums on seats but a broadly a Con/LibDem Coalition MkII looks likely as the latest ARSE indicates.
Ed Miliband will resign a day or so after the general election and Farage MP will be highly animated at his failure to garner more than half a dozen MPs at the outside. The SNP will have more than doubled their seats but to little Westminster effect and the irony of FPTP coming to the aid of the LibDems will see Nick Clegg laughing all the way to the Deputy PM's office.
Funny old world.
Can it be anything other than a matter of time until even ComRes and Survation start polling Labour in the 20s?
Incidentally is there something about treacherous pig dog defectors? Aged 40 something and looking like 60 somethings. Even Farage looks old enough to be my father and I'm 4 years older than him. In 10 years time with his smoking and drinking he will look old enough to be my grandfather.
Sorry you're leaving. Your comments are always thoughtful. I too find the spamming of newspaper articles/latest dribblings of Guido among the duller content of this site. But hey ho.
On Thornberry, I'm no great fan of flags draped all over the house. There's a place for a flag, and it's on a pole in the garden or at a sporting event. And as I see myself as British, I prefer the union ones. I suspect many on PB have had similar thoughts to Thornberry when noting an ostentatious display, be it flags or christmas lights. Tweeting it wasn't sensible, but nor was it the disaster that Milliband made it.
Interesting racing at Haydock today. It just might be soft enough for Harry Topper to run well in the Betfair Chase.
Guido is the No.1 political website in the country for exposing cant and hypocrisy amongst politicians of all parties. I never read the comments, which are awful, and I find some of his right-wing bias too much, even for me, especially the ghastly pro-Israel nonsense (like Con Home) but it's important and links to it when appropriate seem perfectly reasonable.
And surely the same applies to linking newspaper articles? We need to have informed debate on here as well as knowing the current drivers in the media narrative.
The rudeness of some people, and I'm sorry but it's often you-kippers, is the thing which drags the site down. Having a go at a party is one thing, getting personally insulting is another. There's really no need for it.
(Cue some kipper telling me to stop being parsimonious)
1. Not won the 2014 EU Parliament elections
and
2. Done badly at the 2014 local elections
and
3. Not got any MPs elected in the 2015 general election.
Much of the SNP strategy, and more so recently, is predicated on hoovering up swathes of Labour support. They will not undermine that by propping up a minority Conservative government and in terms Sturgeon has indicated thus.
If there is any press coverage of this event, can we play a game of 'count the English flags' ?
Will the flag saga hit Labour and help UKIP? Given how The Sun have run with this, the answer is possibly 'yes.'
Having said that, the polls have a delightful way of confounding. We may see a Labour lead
Uncertainty is the curse in the markets and a minority government has uncertainty at its very core and accordingly has the very vitals of the recovery in its febrile grasp.
A Coalition would provide certainty for five more years whether you agree with its' policies or not.
I think this was a line that OGH came out with, albeit more felicitously expressed, a year ago but I notice even he is rather more circumspect now.
I'm rating a Conservative outright above 80%.
No chance. It will be some silly pumping exercise: teasing the MSM.
I would urge him to reflect, take a decent break from the site and then mull over his decision.
However if IA does permanently leave then I send him all best wishes in his PB retirement.
Could Farage and Carswell and Reckless support a Tory government (if a promise of a Brexit referendum is no good now, why would it be then?)
Which leaves only the NI, PC and Greens as kingmakers, unless a much diminished LD party goes for another coalition.
If the LDs do support a continuity coalition then they would face the fate of the National Liberals and absorption into the Tories. I think Coalition with Labour would be even more destructive.
I cannot see a viable government other than a minority Con or Labour one, though we will have to see how the seats pan out before being certain.
- Food, artificially inflated by a few hundred quid a year due to the CAP
- Energy, spiking because energy companies need huge capex after years of Labour underinvestment
- Housing, rocketing because huge population rises due to mass immigration
Conclusion:
Vote UKIP.