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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Terrible expectations management but you can’t accuse Farag
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Terrible expectations management but you can’t accuse Farage of lacking ambition
EXPRESS: Angry Len – I didn't swear on #scd pic.twitter.com/0EUGnKNlR8
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Long ago, I accepted that my fate will overwhelmingly likely be the same as my cellmates, and I’m angry about it," he says.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11247229/Isil-hostage-John-Cantile-I-have-accepted-my-fate.html
Has his use to ISIS run it course?
I am sorry to hear that you feel bullied off the site and if I have ever contributed to that I apologise.
In terms of being sucked into aggression I can only agree, I try to post constructive comments that might be of interest to those who enjoy a flutter but cannot help myself when people respond in a rude manner. ie those who only offer invective but cannot bring themselves to try and actually refute what is stated with facts and links and rarely if ever post anything that might be of interest to those of us who do like a flutter.
I hope you reconsider and wish you well.
Swiss Bob
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B2_54siIAAA42ip.jpg
And while they are reading it, head to a greasy spoon for a bacon butty and wash it down with a builders tea.
The problem is that whenever Labour now try to represent the Tories as being out of touch Labour will have it thrown back in their face.
What else have they got?
oh Ed
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11247184/Ed-Milibands-leadership-in-turmoil-after-Rochester-and-Strood-by-election-disaster.html
For example if Farage can create a buzz in Thanet South, then there's Thanet North, Folkestone, Dover etc. all around it that could follow.
UKIP should set up three bases in England- one in Kent, Essex and one in East Midlands and basically share activists, manpower and funds between different seats.
Perhaps he was thinking of Gorgeous George?
It's only a few quid but I feel it in my water :-)
We may think many different things about white van man, but if you had a thousand words to choose to describe what you think for 'him,' no-one repeat no-one would choose the word 'respect.'
Except EdM.
It's what happens when you're in a political hole and you have nothing to fall back on except your Hampstead socialism and Oxford PPE. He has actually made Cameron look in touch and with it, and that is really quite some achievement.
EdM is out with the fairies.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11245848/Nigel-Farages-list-of-five-Tory-MPs-who-should-switch-to-Ukip-revealed.html
How on EARTH have Labour managed to deflect this away from the Conservative defeat?!!!!!!!
Small amount staked, there wasn't much there, you can take what's left at 5, probably not great value.
I have another small amount on Darling as next Labour leader, the dark horse.
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101710557
You are never interesting or original.
See below. There I go again, I couldn't help myself.
Night all
Who will get the polling boost this weekend and next week post R&S?
Just cast your minds back to 2010 and the Brown bigot gate story . It did not even change the voting intention of the woman Brown called a bigot .
Is it better to win 10 MPs, and surpass expectations of winning at most 5, or to win 30 MPs, and fall short of expectations of winning up to 40?
Well, we know Farage's answer, and from the woeful spinning by diehard Tories on here over the last day about how disastrous it was for UKIP that they won the by-election by a smaller than expected margin, it seems we know their answer too.
That said the Emily Fourbellies story is too far away from the GE and lacks a memorable phrase to affect the GE. It is just indicative of how out of touch with C2's the metro elite at the top of Labour are.
I also suspect he still has more than half an eye on the debates and in claiming to be aiming for 40 seats - which would likely give him more than the Lib Dems - he's effectively demanding at least parity with Clegg.
Psychologically, it's very difficult to get anyone to change their mind about anything; humans will find all sorts of ways to justify sticking to their guns no matter what. Someone who has always voted Labour, say, will continue to do so despite a) her belief that the Rochdale she grew up in has gone downhill as a result of the policies of her favoured party, and b) the fact that the leader of her favoured party has been recorded on the national media insulting her. If Gillian Duffy wont change her mind, millions like her won't either.
But the Gillian Duffys of the world move on, and their children and grandchildren arrive in the electorate ready to form their own certainties. And those certainties will be shaped by the view that the party of the forefathers doesn't much like them.
Flaggate won't have a massive impact in 2015, though it reinforces an opinion many have about Ed's vision of the Labour Party, just as bigoted-woman-gate didn't have much impact on 2010. But bigoted-woman-gate is one of the factors behind the gradual ebb of Labour voters to UKIP. The impact of flaggate will be small, but felt long into the future.
Elsewhere there is sadly an element of intellectual snobbery among one or two younger Tories and the social snobbery of the champagne socialists who so readily defended our Emily.
They should consider this - either the polls have yet again understated the Tories and disproved the biased and self justificatory article written by the person from Survation (linked in the previous thread) or the improvement in the last ten days was due in no little part to the hard work and dedication put in by KT and her team. Her work ethic was second to none and even caused OGH to note that by the end of the campaign she was "strained" - I'd suggest it was exhaustion.
And as for the media, he's gold for them so I think they take him pretty seriously, with perhaps the exception of the BBC, who don't need to earn any money.
Kent and Essex are there, with almost the entire Eastern English coastline and a tongue of support running inland from the Wash (your East Midlands, perhaps), but there are also notable areas of strength in the Westcountry and in central England (Shropshire, Staffordshire, Stoke, Newcastle-under-Lyme, etc).
That precedent isn't absolute, by the way. Labour increased their vote in 1929 after losing office in 1924.
That's not to say that they won't get a lot of votes, they will. These will come from the Conservatives, the LibDems, Did Not Vote, and (increasingly) from Labour. And that, in a way, is UKIP's problem at the GE - their source of votes is not sufficiently concentrated to make it easy to actually win seats. They will, however, determine the outcome of the election, depending on which of the larger two parties loses more votes to them in the key Lab/Con battlegrounds. At this point it's hard to say which that will be.
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/393257/why-ukips-latest-election-victory-very-big-deal-john-osullivan
Does anyone know where I can find the Survation data tables for the 48-33 Rochester poll they published for Unite? It doesn't seem to be online in the place you'd usually expect as only the NHS/TTIP thing is up.
Damn, how do you get the pic to display?
Night all
He can go round with Miliband a bit like Morcambe and Wise, although maybe Cannon and Ball may be more appropriate. It worked for Blair and Brown in 2005.
Labour of course don't deserve a higher vote than in 2010, and really its only UKIP which is giving them a chance of victory. The thing that the tories have going for them, perhaps especially in Scotland is that people like Reckless defecting and UKIP attacking the Conservatives de facto says that they, the tories, are not the bunch of right wing loons any more, we are. If Labour's vote weakens and the SNP peddle socialism then there may be opportunity to pick up seats.
Boston&Skegness, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Thurrock, Basildon South&Thurrock East, Harlow, Thanet North, Thanet South, Dover, Gillingham&Rainham, Worthing East&Shoreham, Worthing West, Bognor Regis&Littlehampton, Dudley North, Dudley South, Stoke North, Rotherham, Rother Valley, Cleethorpes, Louth&Horncastle, Braintree, Castle Point, Rochford&Southend East, Christchurch, Portsmouth South, Portsmouth North, Havant, Gosport, Eastleigh, Cannock Chase, Warwickshire North, Don Valley, Heywood&Middleton, Chatham&Aylesford, Ashfield, Cambridgeshire NW, Sittingbourne&Sheppey, Forest of Dean.
That's 38 targets, so 40 including Rochester&Strood and Clacton.
Those who disagree and think Labour are terrible may not like him, but then Cameron isn't exactly thought well of outside the Tory party either.
Pot calling the kettle black much?
Being good at expectations management is over rated... It's like saying they're a good spin doctor - old fashioned stuck in the 20th century
It's either a coronation - pace Michael Howard - or Ed stays, says his prayers, and straps on the blindfold.
White van (of which I am not one it should be said) is the man going out trying to make a living doing whatever usually whether it is moving furniture or picking up garden waste for the dump. He is not sitting in front of sky he is trying to make a living for him and his family. He is the small entrepreneur who makes the backbone of this country and exactly the sort of person the tory party used to support and no longer do as your tory shill comment makes plain.
The tory party used to stand for people like this now it seems it is as sneery as labour and you wonder why people like me when asked to vote for you stick up two fingers
Labour see him as a class traitor, they sneer at the tattoos, at the track suits, and the England flags. You are right, these were the people that the Tory party under Thatcher new instinctively.
Now nobody does. I'm from pure blue collar tory stock, but now through a process of embourgeoisement, im removed from the council estate, i live in a rural area, big house etc. Im still that lad from the council estate who didnt have the branded clothes at school when everyone else did.
I am Tory through and through, but i can see the contempt from those who have never had to worry about where the next bill comes from.
'On the day the Tories lost a second seat to UKIP, I think there is a small clue that this may not be going the Tories way.'
But on the day the Newspaper headlines were dominated by the sneering & snobbery of a senior front bench Labour MP who was sacked by her hapless leader,who had just has his tenth re-launch turned into yet another car crash..
I am a lost cause however 2010 is the last time I will vote tory unless they change their ways radically.
O/T Just been to an excellent concert by Andrea Bocelli at the Birmingham LG Arena
https://j4mb.wordpress.com/2014/11/10/2015-general-election-campaign-support-our-campaign-stand-as-a-candidate-for-j4mb-or-make-a-donation/
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/f27.stm
Incidentally. Simplistically people when in the polling booth tick a box because either they like the candidate or they associate with the parties platform, or both. People say that Reckless doesn't have much of a personal vote, and yet last night UKIP just took almost 17,000 votes from someone. So either Reckless has a hell of a following and dragged in those votes on his own because people knew him and liked him personally, or 17,000 people voted UKIP because for whatever reason they liked the cut of their jib (or more likely disliked it less than the cut of other parties jibs). If it was the former, its reasonable to assume the same might happen next May. If the later its reasonable to assume UKIP has a significant following in the country and might do similar in lots of places next May.
Great to see Dr Sunil and loads of the regulars....
Richmond Park: Sam Naz.
Twickenham: Barry Edwards.
http://ukiprt.org/
There's quite a difference between a strong showing in second and winning a seat at general election turnout levels, so I really don't know how many of the promising seats for UKIP - of which there are dozens - will actually tip all the way into victories rather than creditable second places.
There will be a fair few seats - like Waveney - which UKIP will probably turn into three-way marginals. You can make a credible case for any of Con, Lab or UKIP winning such seats with a vote share in the low 30s.
The Autumn Statement is coming soon. Will UKIP have anything timed for that? Also, I wonder whether the Speaker will call one of the UKIP MPs early on to make a response to the statement. Presumably Carswell would be seen as the senior of the two UKIP MPs to be called first in such a situation?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2844765/Paedophile-orgies-luxury-flats-claims-three-boys-murdered-VIPs-Special-report-growing-stench-cover-Establishment.html
Clacton is number 1, UKIP majority was 35%.
Rochester is number 271, UKIP majority was 7%.
Therefore if Kettering is number 92, the projected UKIP majority would be about 25%.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/09/dr-robert-ford-and-dr-matthew-goodwin-the-top-100-most-ukip-friendly-conservative-seats.html
POEWAS
It rumbles on..... Pointless but entertaining if nothing else?