Are you still confident that the Lib Dems can or will fight Oxford West and Abingdon, given their national picture?
Lib Dem prospects for regaining Oxford West and Abingdon do not look good for GE2015, but the medium-term future of the party will be a lot healthier if they can hold on to a creditable second place in that sort of seat.
It will put them in a much better position from which to fight back once turfed out of government.
The Ashcroft constituency poll suggested that the seat will remain a Conservative/Lib Dem marginal, with probably one of the lower votes for UKIP in England. Possibly an idea for a sweepstake competition there: in which seat will UKIP receive their lowest share of the vote in GE2015?
Piss poor tables for Labour at first glance. Looks like the sub 300 UKIP on the previous was an outlier.
Not really (otherwise there wouldn't be a 3-point lead). The Scottish subsample does look wrong (but that's what subsamples usually are). What the poll looks like is a correction for an outlier last time showing a Tory jump at UKIP's expense.
Are you still confident that the Lib Dems can or will fight Oxford West and Abingdon, given their national picture?
Lib Dem prospects for regaining Oxford West and Abingdon do not look good for GE2015, but the medium-term future of the party will be a lot healthier if they can hold on to a creditable second place in that sort of seat.
It will put them in a much better position from which to fight back once turfed out of government.
The Ashcroft constituency poll suggested that the seat will remain a Conservative/Lib Dem marginal, with probably one of the lower votes for UKIP in England. Possibly an idea for a sweepstake competition there: in which seat will UKIP receive their lowest share of the vote in GE2015?
Somewhere in London, I reckon. Cities of London & Westminster, perhaps.
The key significance of Rochester, and the attendant farcical side-show kindly laid on for our entertainment by Ms Thornberry, is what it tells us about whether UKIP will, relative to where we are now, damage Labour more than the Conservatives next May. UKIP have certainly moved heavily to the populist left in their messaging, and the Rochester voting figures do seem to confirm that UKIP's support is increasingly coming from the traditional WWC voters whom Labour used to claim as their own, rather than from conventional Tory types.
I have to be oblique here, but I recently did some work for UKIP in a council by-election. A major issue was a building to house resettled offenders in a WWC area. These would include you-know-whats.
After the BBC and Rotherham, why is anyone surprised that the WWC is up in arms?
Are you still confident that the Lib Dems can or will fight Oxford West and Abingdon, given their national picture?
Lib Dem prospects for regaining Oxford West and Abingdon do not look good for GE2015, but the medium-term future of the party will be a lot healthier if they can hold on to a creditable second place in that sort of seat.
It will put them in a much better position from which to fight back once turfed out of government.
The Ashcroft constituency poll suggested that the seat will remain a Conservative/Lib Dem marginal, with probably one of the lower votes for UKIP in England. Possibly an idea for a sweepstake competition there: in which seat will UKIP receive their lowest share of the vote in GE2015?
Somewhere in London, I reckon. Cities of London & Westminster, perhaps.
As for Rochester, I'm delighted that Mark Reckless will be looking for a new role in 6 months time.
Can't see him holding that paper thin majority in May when it comes to a vote that matters.
Good riddance to him too.
The result should also shore up and settle nerves all round on the Tory benches. All is not lost, but I still think Cameron faces a massive battle to cling on to power and stop us getting our first ever universally unwanted and accidental PM. The Labour voters are more likely to return to the fold than the pee'd off "wish it was 1984" (if not 1954) ex-Tories!
There is just as much chance of Reckless increasing his majority than of it decreasing, in my view. Quite a few people in R&S will have voted UKIP for the first time and probably found themselves enjoying doing so. Voting 'rebelliously' can be addictive and the people of R&S will (barring Reckless doing something silly) realise over the next few months that voting UKIP does not mean the sky falls in - as the Tories said it would.
She came from Islington she had a thirst for knowledge She studied Bollocks at Mandela College that’s where I caught her eye.
She told me that her Dad was loaded I said in that case I’ll have a pint of two pints of lager and a packet of crisps please She said fine and in thirty seconds time she said I have contempt for the common people I want piss on the common people I want to laugh at the common people I want to piss on common people like you. Well what else could I do I said I’m voting UKIP luv, Fuck you
To the tune of Pulp's 'Common people' right? A little crude but quite apt.
Didn't she grow up in a council house after dad walked out?
Potty mouth - time for Ed to get a tattoo perhaps to get down with the masses? If so, what would connect him with the people?
A nice one of a chunk of cheddar or gongonzola perhaps with a dagger piercing it from the backt?
Damian Thompson retweeted Matthew Holehouse@mattholehouse·14 mins14 minutes ago Ed Miliband was "absolutely fucking furious" about Thornberry, according to a Labour source.
''Most leftists can't do that though, because they don't value English history because they don't like the English. ''
To be fair, I don;t think this is true of the genuine labour people who used to populate labour in the days when it was a genuine mass movement.
I don;t think Harold Wilson hated the English. Or Clem Attlee. Or James Callaghan. Or even, for that matter, Arthur Scargill.
Labour used to be able to hide their sneering intellectuals. Now they can't.
Lefties do not like English history. They do not like British history. That why its a good idea to see that they do not gain power.
It's always instructive to find out what I do and do not like on PB.
Having studied medieval English history at university it is chastening to learn that I hated it when previously I had thought it was among the most enjoyable things I have ever done.
"You should not be surprised that the English have turned out so badly when imperialism and slavery corrupt most of their history. the lesson continues. A shameful past and disgraceful present ought to damn them to perpetual guilt."
I know he's describing someone else's view, but he later says they're "not wrong". It's so sickening. The same leftists love Italy and France, but I suppose they're not educated about history enough to know the crimes in Abyssinia and Indochina...
To be fair, I think that he is describing other leftists' attitudes rather than his own.
Of course, slavery and imperialism are part of our history, as they are part of the history of any country or people.
Conan Doyle put it well, when he said of our ancestors "Strive to emulate their virtues, while avoiding their vices."
One of my passions is reading 14th and 15th century history. One can find plenty of plenty of bigotry and cruelty in that history, but also plenty of wit, humour, compassion, courage, and resilience in the face of danger.
Most leftists can't do that though, because they don't value English history because they don't like the English. They dislike the the English working class, they dislike the English middle class and they dislike the English upper class. From top to bottom, they despise this country. The leader of the opposition doesn't think it's even a nation of the UK to be included in the Upper House.
(There are a handful of honourable leftists that do like this country, but they are few and fair between. The fact that Nick Cohen had to say "well yes we all know they're ghastly" so that he can be given a hearing by his audience says it all.)
If only "leftists" could be as unhate-filled as you, eh Socrates??!!
Potty mouth - time for Ed to get a tattoo perhaps to get down with the masses? If so, what would connect him with the people?
A nice one of a chunk of cheddar or gongonzola perhaps with a dagger piercing it from the backt?
Damian Thompson retweeted Matthew Holehouse@mattholehouse·14 mins14 minutes ago Ed Miliband was "absolutely fucking furious" about Thornberry, according to a Labour source.
If he was it was only because it revealed the real Labour he represents without the mask.
Ed's twin sista on DP (Powell), floundering a little.
Blimey she is worse than him... Vapidsville, Utah
It's the modern Labour party for you - Lord knows what some of the northern MPs make of it - a twelve year old telling em how to think.
She is saying that their terrible performance last night, probably improved as they had what many people think was the best candidate, doesn't matter because it is only No127 on their target list
"In left-wing circles it is always felt that there is something slightly disgraceful in being an Englishman and that it is a duty to snigger at every English institution."
''Most leftists can't do that though, because they don't value English history because they don't like the English. ''
To be fair, I don;t think this is true of the genuine labour people who used to populate labour in the days when it was a genuine mass movement.
I don;t think Harold Wilson hated the English. Or Clem Attlee. Or James Callaghan. Or even, for that matter, Arthur Scargill.
Labour used to be able to hide their sneering intellectuals. Now they can't.
Lefties do not like English history. They do not like British history. That why its a good idea to see that they do not gain power.
It's always instructive to find out what I do and do not like on PB.
Having studied medieval English history at university it is chastening to learn that I hated it when previously I had thought it was among the most enjoyable things I have ever done.
I love history and always have done but am not as knowledgeable about the medieval period. So am currently reading Dan Jones's book on the Plantagenets. And enjoying it. My daughter studied medieval history for her A-level and put me onto it.
"You should not be surprised that the English have turned out so badly when imperialism and slavery corrupt most of their history. the lesson continues. A shameful past and disgraceful present ought to damn them to perpetual guilt."
I know he's describing someone else's view, but he later says they're "not wrong". It's so sickening. The same leftists love Italy and France, but I suppose they're not educated about history enough to know the crimes in Abyssinia and Indochina...
To be fair, I think that he is describing other leftists' attitudes rather than his own.
Of course, slavery and imperialism are part of our history, as they are part of the history of any country or people.
Conan Doyle put it well, when he said of our ancestors "Strive to emulate their virtues, while avoiding their vices."
One of my passions is reading 14th and 15th century history. One can find plenty of plenty of bigotry and cruelty in that history, but also plenty of wit, humour, compassion, courage, and resilience in the face of danger.
Most leftists can't do that though, because they don't value English history because they don't like the English. They dislike the the English working class, they dislike the English middle class and they dislike the English upper class. From top to bottom, they despise this country. The leader of the opposition doesn't think it's even a nation of the UK to be included in the Upper House.
(There are a handful of honourable leftists that do like this country, but they are few and fair between. The fact that Nick Cohen had to say "well yes we all know they're ghastly" so that he can be given a hearing by his audience says it all.)
If only "leftists" could be as unhate-filled as you, eh Socrates??!!
While "hate" is a strong word, there's nothing wrong with despising things that deserve to be despised. Things like child abuse and autocracy, for instance. Unfortunately for the left, Englishness isn't one of those things.
I expect that the judgment being delivered in Merck v Merck this morning was rather better attended by the press than the parties would have expected 24 hours ago.
Ed's twin sista on DP (Powell), floundering a little.
Blimey she is worse than him... Vapidsville, Utah
It's the modern Labour party for you - Lord knows what some of the northern MPs make of it - a twelve year old telling em how to think.
She is saying that their terrible performance last night, probably improved as they had what many people think was the best candidate, doesn't matter because it is only No127 on their target list
But it was only No271 on UKIP's and we won!
You had the sitting MP, that must have been some help.
I thought that by far the most interesting part of the N Cohen article was his concern that Labour risks being seen as an anti-English (and therefore somehow alien) party by the English, much in the same way that the Tories under Thatcher were seen by the Scots as an English - and therefore foreign - party.
As for Rochester, I'm delighted that Mark Reckless will be looking for a new role in 6 months time.
Can't see him holding that paper thin majority in May when it comes to a vote that matters.
Good riddance to him too.
The result should also shore up and settle nerves all round on the Tory benches. All is not lost, but I still think Cameron faces a massive battle to cling on to power and stop us getting our first ever universally unwanted and accidental PM. The Labour voters are more likely to return to the fold than the pee'd off "wish it was 1984" (if not 1954) ex-Tories!
There is just as much chance of Reckless increasing his majority than of it decreasing, in my view. Quite a few people in R&S will have voted UKIP for the first time and probably found themselves enjoying doing so. Voting 'rebelliously' can be addictive and the people of R&S will (barring Reckless doing something silly) realise over the next few months that voting UKIP does not mean the sky falls in - as the Tories said it would.
I'm waiting in expectation of the house price crash and the number of estate agents being put out of work. Is there any way I can sell-short housing in Rochester?
As for Rochester, I'm delighted that Mark Reckless will be looking for a new role in 6 months time.
Can't see him holding that paper thin majority in May when it comes to a vote that matters.
Good riddance to him too.
The result should also shore up and settle nerves all round on the Tory benches. All is not lost, but I still think Cameron faces a massive battle to cling on to power and stop us getting our first ever universally unwanted and accidental PM. The Labour voters are more likely to return to the fold than the pee'd off "wish it was 1984" (if not 1954) ex-Tories!
There is just as much chance of Reckless increasing his majority than of it decreasing, in my view. Quite a few people in R&S will have voted UKIP for the first time and probably found themselves enjoying doing so. Voting 'rebelliously' can be addictive and the people of R&S will (barring Reckless doing something silly) realise over the next few months that voting UKIP does not mean the sky falls in - as the Tories said it would.
(barring Reckless doing something silly*) is the operative phrase. * or reckless
Are you still confident that the Lib Dems can or will fight Oxford West and Abingdon, given their national picture?
Lib Dem prospects for regaining Oxford West and Abingdon do not look good for GE2015, but the medium-term future of the party will be a lot healthier if they can hold on to a creditable second place in that sort of seat.
It will put them in a much better position from which to fight back once turfed out of government.
The Ashcroft constituency poll suggested that the seat will remain a Conservative/Lib Dem marginal, with probably one of the lower votes for UKIP in England. Possibly an idea for a sweepstake competition there: in which seat will UKIP receive their lowest share of the vote in GE2015?
Somewhere in London, I reckon. Cities of London & Westminster, perhaps.
Hamstead & Kilburn?
I was thinking of seats where Respect have had a good track record, such as Bradford West and Bethnal Green & Bow.
Cameron's credibility is further undermined by this result.He has become very much a second-hand car dealer these days,hard to trust a word he says, including the meaningless baloney surrounding the EU referendum.The vote Nigel,get Ed, message hasn't worked up to now either.
"In left-wing circles it is always felt that there is something slightly disgraceful in being an Englishman and that it is a duty to snigger at every English institution."
Could have been written yesterday.
He went on to say:
"It is a strange fact, but it is unquestionably true that almost any English intellectual would feel more ashamed of standing to attention during ‘God save the King’ than of stealing from a poor box.”"
I have an idea for a betting market. If we have debates next year and they involve Ukip, how many times will Cameron or Miliband say 'I agree with Nigel.'
Not being serious as I suspect the answer would be zero. However it seems with Dave in particular that almost every statement he makes nowadays could be prefixed 'I agree with Nigel.' So what are voters to think? Presumably that Nigel is the leader and Dave is the follower. Worth remembering that 'I agree with Nick' didn't do Gordon Brown any favours.
Probably Gordon would have done much better to have said "Nick agrees with me" - much more positive. So presumably Nigel will say -" Cameron agrees with me". A real put-down on the Tory PM.
No one seems to have commented on the fact that one of those England flags has a West Ham logo emblazoned across it. The real explanation is simple: Emily Thornberry is a Millwall supporter.
Except me last night.
And the proper word is "defaced".
As an aside, I remember Union Flags at football matches which used to be defaced by the club being supported. That changed when England faced(!) Scotland in Euro96, then St. George's flags crept in.
Cameron's credibility is further undermined by this result.He has become very much a second-hand car dealer these days,hard to trust a word he says, including the meaningless baloney surrounding the EU referendum.The vote Nigel,get Ed, message hasn't worked up to now either.
Cameron's credibility is further undermined by this result.He has become very much a second-hand car dealer these days,hard to trust a word he says, including the meaningless baloney surrounding the EU referendum.The vote Nigel,get Ed, message hasn't worked up to now either.
That might be because Lab didn't bother here for that very reason.
It's a message that will carry more traction in a GE when voters are deciding on the next government.
Are you still confident that the Lib Dems can or will fight Oxford West and Abingdon, given their national picture?
Lib Dem prospects for regaining Oxford West and Abingdon do not look good for GE2015, but the medium-term future of the party will be a lot healthier if they can hold on to a creditable second place in that sort of seat.
It will put them in a much better position from which to fight back once turfed out of government.
The Ashcroft constituency poll suggested that the seat will remain a Conservative/Lib Dem marginal, with probably one of the lower votes for UKIP in England. Possibly an idea for a sweepstake competition there: in which seat will UKIP receive their lowest share of the vote in GE2015?
Somewhere in London, I reckon. Cities of London & Westminster, perhaps.
I think everyone will be glad to see the back of MacAskill and Russell, both stunningly inept.
But will their replacements be any better? Matheson was apparently a community Occupational Therapist or basket weaver as they are commonly called, before coming into politics. A great training for being Minister of Justice, I am sure.
"You should not be surprised that the English have turned out so badly when imperialism and slavery corrupt most of their history. the lesson continues. A shameful past and disgraceful present ought to damn them to perpetual guilt."
I know he's describing someone else's view, but he later says they're "not wrong". It's so sickening. The same leftists love Italy and France, but I suppose they're not educated about history enough to know the crimes in Abyssinia and Indochina...
To be fair, I think that he is describing other leftists' attitudes rather than his own.
Of course, slavery and imperialism are part of our history, as they are part of the history of any country or people.
Conan Doyle put it well, when he said of our ancestors "Strive to emulate their virtues, while avoiding their vices."
One of my passions is reading 14th and 15th century history. One can find plenty of plenty of bigotry and cruelty in that history, but also plenty of wit, humour, compassion, courage, and resilience in the face of danger.
A great period. I think the English have one of the most defensible histories - and presents - of any other comparable nation on the earth.
I shudder to think what the world and condition of humanity would be like if it weren't for the many fine and noble contributions the English have made to literature, Liberty, justice, personal freedom and individual rights over the ages. Not to mention the various battles against tyranny, some of which have been internal of course.
That very comment would condemn me in the eyes of many Leftists and would lead them straight on, and inexorably, to whataboutism on slavery, imperialism, despotic monarchy and racism.
I thought that by far the most interesting part of the N Cohen article was his concern that Labour risks being seen as an anti-English (and therefore somehow alien) party by the English, much in the same way that the Tories under Thatcher were seen by the Scots as an English - and therefore foreign - party.
What do our Labour posters think?
It plays perfectly to EVEL - just as well Miliband hasn't got a Scot running the GE campaign...
"Ed Miliband was "absolutely fucking furious" about Thornberry, according to a Labour source."
I wonder whether Ed is alright. He has looked under a lot of strain recently, and this does not seem to be a proportionate or well-judged reaction.
If some poorly judged tweets send him "absolutely fucking furious", then Ed has going to have a very difficult next 6 months.
Because even if things end up well in May (increasingly doubtful), there will be still be plenty of mishaps along the way, as that is the cut & thrust of modern politics.
I am not a great fan of Nigel, but there is a telling contrast between how Nigel dealt with something similar and how Ed dealt with it.
When Reckless was off-message about repatriating Polish plumbers, Nigel just Reckless is being misunderstood, here's the UKIP policy. Story closed down pretty quickly.
All Ed has to say was, Emily's tweet is being misinterpreted, this is what Labour think.
Cameron's credibility is further undermined by this result.He has become very much a second-hand car dealer these days,hard to trust a word he says, including the meaningless baloney surrounding the EU referendum.The vote Nigel,get Ed, message hasn't worked up to now either.
That might be because Lab didn't bother here for that very reason.
It's a message that will carry more traction in a GE when voters are deciding on the next government.
Lord Ashcroft doesn't think that's the right approach
''Most leftists can't do that though, because they don't value English history because they don't like the English. ''
To be fair, I don;t think this is true of the genuine labour people who used to populate labour in the days when it was a genuine mass movement.
I don;t think Harold Wilson hated the English. Or Clem Attlee. Or James Callaghan. Or even, for that matter, Arthur Scargill.
Labour used to be able to hide their sneering intellectuals. Now they can't.
Labour want to make the rest of England demographically like London. Then they'll be able to get their membership rates up accordingly.
Sadly, I think that's right.
I have left-leaning London friends who are openly contemptuous of anywhere in England that isn't London, believing non-London England to be an ignorant place that needs being taught a lesson.
Scotland, they love, for it's not England, and the independence debate etc feeds their narrative of freedom v English oppression/imperialism. Their knowledge of history extends to Mel Gibson's 'Braveheart'.
They are happy for Scotland to be independent of the United Kingdom, but - of course - not for the United Kingdom to be independent of the EU. They love the EU.
They wouldn't be seen dead waving a St George's flag but they'll of course try and rationalise Muslim extremism on their patios over a glass of prosecco.
They vote Labour, but little Johny attends Dulwich School...
Reckless is surely going to be another Dr Spink - a UKIP five-minute wonder who vanishes into obscurity after a few months. UKIP's lead is nothing compared to, say, the Lib Dems' Christ Church by-election win of 1993, which the Tories subsequently overturned at their nadir of 1997.
"It is a strange fact, but it is unquestionably true that almost any English intellectual would feel more ashamed of standing to attention during ‘God save the King’ than of stealing from a poor box.”"
I believe in continuing the proud traditions of our great country, which include being deeply embarrassed by any sort of nationalistic fervour and talk of continuing proud traditions.
Anyway, congratulations are in order, I guess, to UKIP, who have now overtaken the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland to be the 9th biggest block in the House of Commons. A new referendum on electoral reform will be welcome, and it will be amusing seeing Farage, Bennett and Sturgeon on a common platform.
A staggeringly bad result for the LibDems with just 349, THREE HUNDRED AND FORTY NINE VOTES ! And let's have none of this supposed pro-Tory tactical voting malarkey, LibDems have never been known to vote tactically for the Blues in their sweet little lives, quite the opposite in fact. Those in the party *cough* who are relying on Ashcroft's polls to save them at the forthcoming GE could be in for a nasty shock. Personally, I've more confidence in Stephen Fisher's model showing them losing over half their seats.
The bell that tolls for the libdems is that the Greens got more than 400% of their vote with 4.2%, making comparisons with labours 2.2% in Westmoreland irrelevant.
It is the loss of votes to the greens that will see their 2015 MPs fit into a peoplecarrier
The Greens are irrelevant in almost all of the LibDem targets. Where were the Greens in the Cheadle constituency last night ?
I'm afraid you too often allow your total disdain of the LibDems to cloud any reasoned analysis of their essential position which is dire in most seats but enjoying substantial strength in several dozen seats.
In contrast Ukip enjoys broad support but with limited opportunities to convert to wins in a general election.
Once again Jack W showing us his superior analytical skills.
It is the absolute lack of understanding by many PBers of how FPTP works that I find so perplexing.
Once again OGH showing us his superior analytical skills.
''Most leftists can't do that though, because they don't value English history because they don't like the English. ''
To be fair, I don;t think this is true of the genuine labour people who used to populate labour in the days when it was a genuine mass movement.
I don;t think Harold Wilson hated the English. Or Clem Attlee. Or James Callaghan. Or even, for that matter, Arthur Scargill.
Labour used to be able to hide their sneering intellectuals. Now they can't.
Labour want to make the rest of England demographically like London. Then they'll be able to get their membership rates up accordingly.
Sadly, I think that's right.
I have left-leaning London friends who are openly contemptuous about anywhere in England that isn't London, believing non-London England to be an ignorant place that needs being taught a lesson.
Scotland, they love, for it's not England, and the independence debate etc feeds their narrative of freedom v English oppression/imperialism.
They are happy for Scotland to be independent of the United Kingdom, but - of course - not for the United Kingdom to be independent of the EU. They love the EU.
They wouldn't be seen dead waving a St George's flag but they'll opf course try and rationalise Muslim extremism on their patios over a glass of prosecco.
Correct. I think at heart there are two issues here:
(1) Up until relatively recently (about 45-50 years ago) we used to be very one-sided in our assessment of English history, in our favour. The analysis was not always intellectually robust and the conclusions relatively unquestioned. (2) We were very powerful during the peak of the Industrial Age, and had a vast global reach. That means we were very influential. Consequentially, we did quite a bit more volume of the bad stuff (as well as quite a bit more of the good stuff) than other comparable nations did.
The arrogance of (1) combined with the impacts of (2) I think makes some on the Left very uncomfortable with identifying with the English. The ones teaching within our education system have 'overcompensated' by teaching a skewed view of that in history lessons towards the other way.
Worth also remembering this is still very recent history. Both my parents were born in India when it was still British. We still had a huge empire when the Queen came to the throne. We only divested our last significant colony 17 years ago.
I have a feeling our history and identity will be more circumspect in 50-100 years time. But for now, this is all still rather raw - probably on both sides.
After yesterday, my calculation that the Labour election campaign could be catastrophically, once-in-a-generation, point-and-laugh-at-Labour bad has edged up to a 32% chance.....
They wouldn't be seen dead waving a St George's flag but they'll of course try and rationalise Muslim extremism on their patios over a glass of prosecco.
They say that every dog is still only two meals away from being a wolf, the liberal attitudes will fade rapidly if they should feel threatened personally. If the security situation deteriorates, or god forbid there is some sort of terrorist campaign in mainland Britain next year, those self same people will become as blue as blue almost overnight. I am reminded of the Col Jessop speech at the end of a Few Good Men.
A staggeringly bad result for the LibDems with just 349, THREE HUNDRED AND FORTY NINE VOTES ! And let's have none of this supposed pro-Tory tactical voting malarkey, LibDems have never been known to vote tactically for the Blues in their sweet little lives, quite the opposite in fact. Those in the party *cough* who are relying on Ashcroft's polls to save them at the forthcoming GE could be in for a nasty shock. Personally, I've more confidence in Stephen Fisher's model showing them losing over half their seats.
The bell that tolls for the libdems is that the Greens got more than 400% of their vote with 4.2%, making comparisons with labours 2.2% in Westmoreland irrelevant.
It is the loss of votes to the greens that will see their 2015 MPs fit into a peoplecarrier
The Greens are irrelevant in almost all of the LibDem targets. Where were the Greens in the Cheadle constituency last night ?
I'm afraid you too often allow your total disdain of the LibDems to cloud any reasoned analysis of their essential position which is dire in most seats but enjoying substantial strength in several dozen seats.
In contrast Ukip enjoys broad support but with limited opportunities to convert to wins in a general election.
Once again Jack W showing us his superior analytical skills.
It is the absolute lack of understanding by many PBers of how FPTP works that I find so perplexing.
Once again OGH showing us his superior analytical skills.
I think everyone will be glad to see the back of MacAskill and Russell, both stunningly inept.
But will their replacements be any better? Matheson was apparently a community Occupational Therapist or basket weaver as they are commonly called, before coming into politics. A great training for being Minister of Justice, I am sure.
Agreed, but also, why is Hyslop still there? Even a lot of SNPer's I know don't rate her.
I believe in continuing the proud traditions of our great country, which include being deeply embarrassed by any sort of nationalistic fervour and talk of continuing proud traditions.
On the other hand, as a Brit 8000 miles from home my family watched the cenotaph service here, and we regularly watch the Last Night of the Proms, Trooping the Colour, and the Service of Remembrance, I dont recall any feelings of embarrassment, or such being commented up by my children. One of the proud traditions of our great country surely, is being proud of it's traditions.
Kippers a bit quiet after being so voluble for weeks on end - just maybe they're not as happy as they'd like us all to think.
What do you expect us to say? We won. We don't need to rub your noses in it as there are plenty of your own members and supporters ready to attack you themselves. Now is the time to sit back and enjoy watching Labour and Tory leaderships fight their battles with their own parties.
UKIP must be praying for another Tory defection soon - it's only that which perpetuates the ongoing drama and sense of naughtiness. In the cold light of day the reality - just another, slightly embittered, middle-class career politico grasping at a bit of stardust - is all rather samey. UKIP need Rees-Mogg to defect and pronto!
''Most leftists can't do that though, because they don't value English history because they don't like the English. ''
To be fair, I don;t think this is true of the genuine labour people who used to populate labour in the days when it was a genuine mass movement.
I don;t think Harold Wilson hated the English. Or Clem Attlee. Or James Callaghan. Or even, for that matter, Arthur Scargill.
Labour used to be able to hide their sneering intellectuals. Now they can't.
Labour want to make the rest of England demographically like London. Then they'll be able to get their membership rates up accordingly.
Sadly, I think that's right.
I have left-leaning London friends who are openly contemptuous of anywhere in England that isn't London, believing non-London England to be an ignorant place that needs being taught a lesson.
Scotland, they love, for it's not England, and the independence debate etc feeds their narrative of freedom v English oppression/imperialism. Their knowledge of history extends to Mel Gibson's 'Braveheart'.
They are happy for Scotland to be independent of the United Kingdom, but - of course - not for the United Kingdom to be independent of the EU. They love the EU.
They wouldn't be seen dead waving a St George's flag but they'll of course try and rationalise Muslim extremism on their patios over a glass of prosecco.
They vote Labour, but little Johny attends Dulwich School...
Do your friends know that you hold them in such contempt?
I have plenty of left wing friends too. They live in various parts of the country. They typically support England in sporting competitions, understand its history pretty well, see good and bad in the EU and were profoundly opposed to Scottish independence. Isn't it amazing how our experiences can be so different?
I know a fair few right wing people who are ignorant, xenophobic and prone to making sweeping judgements about entire groups of people based on their interactions with one or two individuals. Do you?
"Over the long run, we estimate that London is one of only three UK regions to have dependably made a net contribution towards the overall UK fiscal balance. In the nine years prior to the economic and financial crisis of 2008/09, London‟s surplus ranged between £10bn and £20bn. During the worst years of the economic downturn, London‟s fiscal account dipped just below balance, in 2009/10, before rebounding to around £5bn the following year."
London should go independent and let the hicks work out for themselves how they are going to fund their reactionary dreams.
UKIP must be praying for another Tory defection soon - it's only that which perpetuates the ongoing drama and sense of naughtiness. In the cold light of day the reality - just another, slightly embittered, middle-class career politico grasping at a bit of stardust - is all rather samey. UKIP need Rees-Mogg to defect and pronto!
UKIP need a Labour MP to defect and pronto. That would be very naughty....
As for Rochester, I'm delighted that Mark Reckless will be looking for a new role in 6 months time.
Can't see him holding that paper thin majority in May when it comes to a vote that matters.
Good riddance to him too.
The result should also shore up and settle nerves all round on the Tory benches. All is not lost, but I still think Cameron faces a massive battle to cling on to power and stop us getting our first ever universally unwanted and accidental PM. The Labour voters are more likely to return to the fold than the pee'd off "wish it was 1984" (if not 1954) ex-Tories!
There is just as much chance of Reckless increasing his majority than of it decreasing, in my view. Quite a few people in R&S will have voted UKIP for the first time and probably found themselves enjoying doing so. Voting 'rebelliously' can be addictive and the people of R&S will (barring Reckless doing something silly) realise over the next few months that voting UKIP does not mean the sky falls in - as the Tories said it would.
These sorts of seats could see all kinds of strange tactical voting. In particular what will Labour supporters now do? Vote Uki to stop Tory. Vote Tory to stop Ukip? Lib Dem voters I expect to rally around the Conservatives. Those they have left much prefer Cameron to Farage I suspect.
I said it yesterday, but in my "white working class" (northern) town, I don't see people flying England flags very often when the World Cup's not on. I'd probably laugh at someone who put THREE on their house, not because I'm offended by it but just because it screams of attention-seeking "look at me!"-ism. I liken it to someone draping their house in really tacky, flashing Christmas lights (and no I'm not "against" Christmas).
UKIP must be praying for another Tory defection soon - it's only that which perpetuates the ongoing drama and sense of naughtiness. In the cold light of day the reality - just another, slightly embittered, middle-class career politico grasping at a bit of stardust - is all rather samey. UKIP need Rees-Mogg to defect and pronto!
UKIP need a Labour MP to defect and pronto. That would be very naughty....
I hope SD defects from Rochdale.
Hopefully Mrs D would then be available for a space in TSEs harem
They wouldn't be seen dead waving a St George's flag but they'll of course try and rationalise Muslim extremism on their patios over a glass of prosecco.
They say that every dog is still only two meals away from being a wolf, the liberal attitudes will fade rapidly if they should feel threatened personally. If the security situation deteriorates, or god forbid there is some sort of terrorist campaign in mainland Britain next year, those self same people will become as blue as blue almost overnight. I am reminded of the Col Jessop speech at the end of a Few Good Men.
I can personally vouch for this.
If you want to see how liberals react when their interests are threatened, just pop over to the Guardian website and see how Islamic Schools are treated in articles or how Islamic practices being introduced into tertiary colleges are viewed.
When Polish children displaced non-Catholic children from high performing Catholic schools in London, that's when the Guardian became viciously anti-Catholic.
"You should not be surprised that the English have turned out so badly when imperialism and slavery corrupt most of their history. the lesson continues. A shameful past and disgraceful present ought to damn them to perpetual guilt."
I know he's describing someone else's view, but he later says they're "not wrong". It's so sickening. The same leftists love Italy and France, but I suppose they're not educated about history enough to know the crimes in Abyssinia and Indochina...
To be fair, I think that he is describing other leftists' attitudes rather than his own.
Of course, slavery and imperialism are part of our history, as they are part of the history of any country or people.
Conan Doyle put it well, when he said of our ancestors "Strive to emulate their virtues, while avoiding their vices."
One of my passions is reading 14th and 15th century history. One can find plenty of plenty of bigotry and cruelty in that history, but also plenty of wit, humour, compassion, courage, and resilience in the face of danger.
Most leftists can't do that though, because they don't value English history because they don't like the English. They dislike the the English working class, they dislike the English middle class and they dislike the English upper class. From top to bottom, they despise this country. The leader of the opposition doesn't think it's even a nation of the UK to be included in the Upper House.
(There are a handful of honourable leftists that do like this country, but they are few and fair between. The fact that Nick Cohen had to say "well yes we all know they're ghastly" so that he can be given a hearing by his audience says it all.)
If only "leftists" could be as unhate-filled as you, eh Socrates??!!
While "hate" is a strong word, there's nothing wrong with despising things that deserve to be despised. Things like child abuse and autocracy, for instance. Unfortunately for the left, Englishness isn't one of those things.
My guess is that your Englishness is very different to mine.
UKIP must be praying for another Tory defection soon - it's only that which perpetuates the ongoing drama and sense of naughtiness. In the cold light of day the reality - just another, slightly embittered, middle-class career politico grasping at a bit of stardust - is all rather samey. UKIP need Rees-Mogg to defect and pronto!
UKIP need a Labour MP to defect and pronto. That would be very naughty....
The worry then would be that people began to feel sorry for Ed .
The Sun have overstepped the mark now with Thornberry story. Organizing / filming white van man attempting to doorstep her is pushing it too far, and just wait for the left leaning media to go nuclear on them / Murdoch / etc etc etc.
Reckless is surely going to be another Dr Spink - a UKIP five-minute wonder who vanishes into obscurity after a few months. UKIP's lead is nothing compared to, say, the Lib Dems' Christ Church by-election win of 1993, which the Tories subsequently overturned at their nadir of 1997.
Yes, we need a bit of perspective on PB. UKIP are doing well at the moment, no doubt about that. Not as well as the SDP did in their heyday nor as well as the LIbDems have done since (Christchurch as you noted but also Newbury, Bermondsey, Eastbourne Brent etc). Also Clacton and Rochester were really UKIP holds, since the defectors were sitting MPs. LibDems did really badly in the Rochester by-election, Labour did really badly in the Winchester by-election. Neither was in contention in those seats and there's not many conclusions you can draw from them.
"Over the long run, we estimate that London is one of only three UK regions to have dependably made a net contribution towards the overall UK fiscal balance. In the nine years prior to the economic and financial crisis of 2008/09, London‟s surplus ranged between £10bn and £20bn. During the worst years of the economic downturn, London‟s fiscal account dipped just below balance, in 2009/10, before rebounding to around £5bn the following year."
London should go independent and let the hicks work out for themselves how they are going to fund their reactionary dreams.
So, you quote from a London boosterism site to back you up?
And those "hicks" you so disdain saved London's ass just so very few years ago.
A staggeringly bad result for the LibDems with just 349, THREE HUNDRED AND FORTY NINE VOTES ! And let's have none of this supposed pro-Tory tactical voting malarkey, LibDems have never been known to vote tactically for the Blues in their sweet little lives, quite the opposite in fact. Those in the party *cough* who are relying on Ashcroft's polls to save them at the forthcoming GE could be in for a nasty shock. Personally, I've more confidence in Stephen Fisher's model showing them losing over half their seats.
The bell that tolls for the libdems is that the Greens got more than 400% of their vote with 4.2%, making comparisons with labours 2.2% in Westmoreland irrelevant.
It is the loss of votes to the greens that will see their 2015 MPs fit into a peoplecarrier
The Greens are irrelevant in almost all of the LibDem targets. Where were the Greens in the Cheadle constituency last night ?
I'm afraid you too often allow your total disdain of the LibDems to cloud any reasoned analysis of their essential position which is dire in most seats but enjoying substantial strength in several dozen seats.
In contrast Ukip enjoys broad support but with limited opportunities to convert to wins in a general election.
Once again Jack W showing us his superior analytical skills.
It is the absolute lack of understanding by many PBers of how FPTP works that I find so perplexing.
Once again OGH showing us his superior analytical skills.
Get a room you two.
Lib Dems get 0.87% their lowest vote % ever and take comfort in their cot blanket called FPTP.
I said it yesterday, but in my "white working class" (northern) town, I don't see people flying England flags very often when the World Cup's not on. I'd probably laugh at someone who put THREE on their house, not because I'm offended by it but just because it screams of attention-seeking "look at me!"-ism. I liken it to someone draping their house in really tacky, flashing Christmas lights (and no I'm not "against" Christmas).
England played Scotland on Tuesday night so perhaps they were still up from that? The fact one flag had a West Ham badge on it suggests it was a football-orientated display.
I welcome to UKIP Mr Reckless as a staunch supporter of same sex marriage. Clearly either UKIP has changed their policy on this or they are unaware of his views on what used to be a potent reason for Conservative members to join UKIP....
"Over the long run, we estimate that London is one of only three UK regions to have dependably made a net contribution towards the overall UK fiscal balance. In the nine years prior to the economic and financial crisis of 2008/09, London‟s surplus ranged between £10bn and £20bn. During the worst years of the economic downturn, London‟s fiscal account dipped just below balance, in 2009/10, before rebounding to around £5bn the following year."
London should go independent and let the hicks work out for themselves how they are going to fund their reactionary dreams.
So, you quote from a London boosterism site to back you up?
And those "hicks" you so distain saved London's ass just so very few years ago.
I realise that facts and figures are something that you struggle with, but the inconvenient truth is that London (with all those non-native inhabitants that make you shudder so) fund the rest of the country's lifestyle.
If you want to live in the 1950s, you'd have to get used to 1950s standards of living as well.
"Over the long run, we estimate that London is one of only three UK regions to have dependably made a net contribution towards the overall UK fiscal balance. In the nine years prior to the economic and financial crisis of 2008/09, London‟s surplus ranged between £10bn and £20bn. During the worst years of the economic downturn, London‟s fiscal account dipped just below balance, in 2009/10, before rebounding to around £5bn the following year."
London should go independent and let the hicks work out for themselves how they are going to fund their reactionary dreams.
Do you say this sort of stuff just to get a reaction? Unlike almost all other subjectd on which you comment, it's entirely unconstrucfive. So I just ignore then, tbh.
When Polish children displaced non-Catholic children from high performing Catholic schools in London, that's when the Guardian became viciously anti-Catholic.
Why didnt they become viciously anti-Polish instead?
Reckless is surely going to be another Dr Spink - a UKIP five-minute wonder who vanishes into obscurity after a few months. UKIP's lead is nothing compared to, say, the Lib Dems' Christ Church by-election win of 1993, which the Tories subsequently overturned at their nadir of 1997.
Yes, we need a bit of perspective on PB. UKIP are doing well at the moment, no doubt about that. Not as well as the SDP did in their heyday nor as well as the LIbDems have done since (Christchurch as you noted but also Newbury, Bermondsey, Eastbourne Brent etc). Also Clacton and Rochester were really UKIP holds, since the defectors were sitting MPs. LibDems did really badly in the Rochester by-election, Labour did really badly in the Winchester by-election. Neither was in contention in those seats and there's not many conclusions you can draw from them.
Heywood and Middleton might be a useful indicator as well... deepest red nearly went purple.
The Sun have overstepped the mark now with Thornberry story. Organizing / filming white van man attempting to doorstep her is pushing it too far, and just wait for the left leaning media to go nuclear on them / Murdoch / etc etc etc.
Yep bloody stupid. Part of the modern media obsession with trying to create the news rather than just reporting it.
The Sun have overstepped the mark now with Thornberry story. Organizing / filming white van man attempting to doorstep her is pushing it too far, and just wait for the left leaning media to go nuclear on them / Murdoch / etc etc etc.
Yep bloody stupid. Part of the modern media obsession with trying to create the news rather than just reporting it.
"Over the long run, we estimate that London is one of only three UK regions to have dependably made a net contribution towards the overall UK fiscal balance. In the nine years prior to the economic and financial crisis of 2008/09, London‟s surplus ranged between £10bn and £20bn. During the worst years of the economic downturn, London‟s fiscal account dipped just below balance, in 2009/10, before rebounding to around £5bn the following year."
London should go independent and let the hicks work out for themselves how they are going to fund their reactionary dreams.
Do you say this sort of stuff just to get a reaction? Unlike almost all other subjectd on which you comment, it's entirely unconstrucfive. So I just ignore then, tbh.
Country types don't like what London stands for. But they do like its money. It's quite a feat to bite the hand that feeds you and expect to be re-fed, but it's one that the provinces keep expecting to be able to pull off.
When Polish children displaced non-Catholic children from high performing Catholic schools in London, that's when the Guardian became viciously anti-Catholic.
Why didnt they become viciously anti-Polish instead?
The Sun have overstepped the mark now with Thornberry story. Organizing / filming white van man attempting to doorstep her is pushing it too far, and just wait for the left leaning media to go nuclear on them / Murdoch / etc etc etc.
Yep bloody stupid. Part of the modern media obsession with trying to create the news rather than just reporting it.
For clarification since both were mentioned, the 'bloody stupid' bit referred to the Sun not the 'Left leaning media' who were also mentioned.
"Over the long run, we estimate that London is one of only three UK regions to have dependably made a net contribution towards the overall UK fiscal balance. In the nine years prior to the economic and financial crisis of 2008/09, London‟s surplus ranged between £10bn and £20bn. During the worst years of the economic downturn, London‟s fiscal account dipped just below balance, in 2009/10, before rebounding to around £5bn the following year."
London should go independent and let the hicks work out for themselves how they are going to fund their reactionary dreams.
So, you quote from a London boosterism site to back you up?
And those "hicks" you so distain saved London's ass just so very few years ago.
I realise that facts and figures are something that you struggle with, but the inconvenient truth is that London (with all those non-native inhabitants that make you shudder so) fund the rest of the country's lifestyle.
If you want to live in the 1950s, you'd have to get used to 1950s standards of living as well.
Not being able to rely on London so much might give the rest of England the kick up the ass it needs, economically speaking.
Comments
Some English people are ghastly, most are not.
Some Leftists 'hate the English, most do not.
Some LibDem MPs will keep their seats, possibly...
It will put them in a much better position from which to fight back once turfed out of government.
The Ashcroft constituency poll suggested that the seat will remain a Conservative/Lib Dem marginal, with probably one of the lower votes for UKIP in England. Possibly an idea for a sweepstake competition there: in which seat will UKIP receive their lowest share of the vote in GE2015?
After the BBC and Rotherham, why is anyone surprised that the WWC is up in arms?
A nice one of a chunk of cheddar or gongonzola perhaps with a dagger piercing it from the backt?
Damian Thompson retweeted
Matthew Holehouse@mattholehouse·14 mins14 minutes ago
Ed Miliband was "absolutely fucking furious" about Thornberry, according to a Labour source.
Having studied medieval English history at university it is chastening to learn that I hated it when previously I had thought it was among the most enjoyable things I have ever done.
http://news.scotland.gov.uk/News/New-Cabinet-unveiled-1282.aspx
50:50 gender split.....
But it was only No271 on UKIP's and we won!
He may have a point,
http://www.theguardian.com/media/mind-your-language/2014/nov/21/mind-your-language-center-or-centre
It is the end of the civilized world you know?
"In left-wing circles it is always felt that there is something slightly disgraceful in being an Englishman and that it is a duty to snigger at every English institution."
Could have been written yesterday.
UKIP's candidate is a local lad from Aveley
Labour's is a SPAD from Islington
I had considered hedging by backing Labour at 9/4, but in light of yesterdays events, the 4/5 UKIP is probably the value
The whole reason I backed UKIP in the first place is that Thurrock is White Van Man Central
What do our Labour posters think?
* or reckless
"It is a strange fact, but it is unquestionably true that almost any English intellectual would feel more ashamed of standing to attention during ‘God save the King’ than of stealing from a poor box.”"
Our own SeanT waxed lyrically on the subject a couple of months ago in the Telegraph: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100284604/the-self-loathing-of-the-british-left-is-now-a-problem-for-us-all/
FFS labour, just drop it. Just boot the ball into touch. Just get it out of play.
And the proper word is "defaced".
As an aside, I remember Union Flags at football matches which used to be defaced by the club being supported. That changed when England faced(!) Scotland in Euro96, then St. George's flags crept in.
It's a message that will carry more traction in a GE when voters are deciding on the next government.
Perhaps you mean Hampstead.
But will their replacements be any better? Matheson was apparently a community Occupational Therapist or basket weaver as they are commonly called, before coming into politics. A great training for being Minister of Justice, I am sure.
I shudder to think what the world and condition of humanity would be like if it weren't for the many fine and noble contributions the English have made to literature, Liberty, justice, personal freedom and individual rights over the ages. Not to mention the various battles against tyranny, some of which have been internal of course.
That very comment would condemn me in the eyes of many Leftists and would lead them straight on, and inexorably, to whataboutism on slavery, imperialism, despotic monarchy and racism.
''......but in the end I went with the polish chap i normally use because he was cheaper.''
I wonder whether Ed is alright. He has looked under a lot of strain recently, and this does not seem to be a proportionate or well-judged reaction.
If some poorly judged tweets send him "absolutely fucking furious", then Ed has going to have a very difficult next 6 months.
Because even if things end up well in May (increasingly doubtful), there will be still be plenty of mishaps along the way, as that is the cut & thrust of modern politics.
I am not a great fan of Nigel, but there is a telling contrast between how Nigel dealt with something similar and how Ed dealt with it.
When Reckless was off-message about repatriating Polish plumbers, Nigel just Reckless is being misunderstood, here's the UKIP policy. Story closed down pretty quickly.
All Ed has to say was, Emily's tweet is being misinterpreted, this is what Labour think.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/insulting-decent-ukip-voters-will-backfire-lord-ashcroft-warns-tories-9871432.html
I think the best way to get voters to tactically vote is to not keep telling them to tactically vote.
Scotland, they love, for it's not England, and the independence debate etc feeds their narrative of freedom v English oppression/imperialism. Their knowledge of history extends to Mel Gibson's 'Braveheart'.
They are happy for Scotland to be independent of the United Kingdom, but - of course - not for the United Kingdom to be independent of the EU. They love the EU.
They wouldn't be seen dead waving a St George's flag but they'll of course try and rationalise Muslim extremism on their patios over a glass of prosecco.
They vote Labour, but little Johny attends Dulwich School...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christchurch_by-election,_1993
Anyway, congratulations are in order, I guess, to UKIP, who have now overtaken the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland to be the 9th biggest block in the House of Commons. A new referendum on electoral reform will be welcome, and it will be amusing seeing Farage, Bennett and Sturgeon on a common platform.
You should be pleased.
That is just like little Nigel
(1) Up until relatively recently (about 45-50 years ago) we used to be very one-sided in our assessment of English history, in our favour. The analysis was not always intellectually robust and the conclusions relatively unquestioned.
(2) We were very powerful during the peak of the Industrial Age, and had a vast global reach. That means we were very influential. Consequentially, we did quite a bit more volume of the bad stuff (as well as quite a bit more of the good stuff) than other comparable nations did.
The arrogance of (1) combined with the impacts of (2) I think makes some on the Left very uncomfortable with identifying with the English. The ones teaching within our education system have 'overcompensated' by teaching a skewed view of that in history lessons towards the other way.
Worth also remembering this is still very recent history. Both my parents were born in India when it was still British. We still had a huge empire when the Queen came to the throne. We only divested our last significant colony 17 years ago.
I have a feeling our history and identity will be more circumspect in 50-100 years time. But for now, this is all still rather raw - probably on both sides.
In any case, the huge financial support from the UK during the banking crash showed how hollow London's "success" really is.
Here's an interesting article on the subject:
http://quarterly.demos.co.uk/article/issue-4/london-all-that-glisters/
As for the Lib Dems.... :-)
I have plenty of left wing friends too. They live in various parts of the country. They typically support England in sporting competitions, understand its history pretty well, see good and bad in the EU and were profoundly opposed to Scottish independence. Isn't it amazing how our experiences can be so different?
I know a fair few right wing people who are ignorant, xenophobic and prone to making sweeping judgements about entire groups of people based on their interactions with one or two individuals. Do you?
TheScreamingEagles said
"First Survation in Clacton gave Carswell a 44% lead. First Survation in Rochester and Strood Reckless a 9% lead.
I'm just saying it will be closer than Betfair implies."
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isam • Posts: 10,017
October 16
"When the poll gave Carswell a 44pt lead, he shortened from about 1/6 to 1/16.
Reckless is about 2/7 off a 9pt lead which isn't far wrong
If Survation overstate Reckless to the same degree they did Carswell, I think Reckless would win by 7.2%"
"Over the long run, we estimate that London is one of only three UK regions to have dependably made a net contribution towards the overall UK fiscal balance. In the nine years prior to the economic and financial crisis of 2008/09, London‟s surplus ranged between £10bn and £20bn. During the worst years of the economic downturn, London‟s fiscal account dipped just below balance, in 2009/10, before rebounding to around £5bn the following year."
London should go independent and let the hicks work out for themselves how they are going to fund their reactionary dreams.
These sorts of seats could see all kinds of strange tactical voting. In particular what will Labour supporters now do? Vote Uki to stop Tory. Vote Tory to stop Ukip? Lib Dem voters I expect to rally around the Conservatives. Those they have left much prefer Cameron to Farage I suspect.
Hopefully Mrs D would then be available for a space in TSEs harem
If you want to see how liberals react when their interests are threatened, just pop over to the Guardian website and see how Islamic Schools are treated in articles or how Islamic practices being introduced into tertiary colleges are viewed.
When Polish children displaced non-Catholic children from high performing Catholic schools in London, that's when the Guardian became viciously anti-Catholic.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/mary-wakefield/9375202/patriotism-isnt-uncivilised-its-what-makes-civilisation-possible/
http://order-order.com/2014/11/21/white-van-dan-turns-up-at-thornberrys-mansion/
UKIP are doing well at the moment, no doubt about that.
Not as well as the SDP did in their heyday nor as well as the LIbDems have done since (Christchurch as you noted but also Newbury, Bermondsey, Eastbourne Brent etc).
Also Clacton and Rochester were really UKIP holds, since the defectors were sitting MPs.
LibDems did really badly in the Rochester by-election, Labour did really badly in the Winchester by-election. Neither was in contention in those seats and there's not many conclusions you can draw from them.
And those "hicks" you so disdain saved London's ass just so very few years ago.
If you want to live in the 1950s, you'd have to get used to 1950s standards of living as well.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/the-suns-reporters-called-readers-plebs-court-told-9869097.html
If you get umpteen seats, but a derisory national vote share, why should you be treated differently from other such parties e.g. DUP, SNP?
National vote share DOES matter.