As for Rochester, I'm delighted that Mark Reckless will be looking for a new role in 6 months time.
Can't see him holding that paper thin majority in May when it comes to a vote that matters.
Good riddance to him too.
The result should also shore up and settle nerves all round on the Tory benches. All is not lost, but I still think Cameron faces a massive battle to cling on to power and stop us getting our first ever universally unwanted and accidental PM. The Labour voters are more likely to return to the fold than the pee'd off "wish it was 1984" (if not 1954) ex-Tories!
When the Rochester campaign kicked off, Conservative MPs were told by their leadership, and their hired election experts, that UKIP were beatable, and that the Conservatives Would Win.
If you think that a 2,900 majority is too small to hold in May how do you feel about the chances of the forty odd Conservative MPs who majorities are less than 2,900.
As for Rochester, I'm delighted that Mark Reckless will be looking for a new role in 6 months time.
Can't see him holding that paper thin majority in May when it comes to a vote that matters.
Good riddance to him too.
The result should also shore up and settle nerves all round on the Tory benches. All is not lost, but I still think Cameron faces a massive battle to cling on to power and stop us getting our first ever universally unwanted and accidental PM. The Labour voters are more likely to return to the fold than the pee'd off "wish it was 1984" (if not 1954) ex-Tories!
When the Rochester campaign kicked off, Conservative MPs were told by their leadership, and their hired election experts, that UKIP were beatable, and that the Conservatives Would Win.
The Labour voters are more likely to return to the fold than the pee'd off "wish it was 1984" (if not 1954) ex-Tories!
I think the Home Secretary is that one wanting to make it 1984 with her with snoopers charter, extremist disruption orders and now we hear powers to force suspects to relocate to other towns.
If you think that a 2,900 majority is too small to hold in May how do you feel about the chances of the forty odd Conservative MPs who majorities are less than 2,900.
I imagine he thinks that size of majority is one but not the only factor involved in assessing the likelihood of retaining a seat.
If only someone could invent a place where people could back up their thoughts on who would win a particular seat with hard cash and we could read from the prices they demand for that cash an implied probability of victory for each of the main parties. If that ever happened we could get together and start a blog commenting on the movements in those prices / implied probabilities and how to make money from them.
If you think that a 2,900 majority is too small to hold in May how do you feel about the chances of the forty odd Conservative MPs who majorities are less than 2,900.
Much better than the winner of a by election will feel about his 2900 majority. Those electors do funny things in between general elections.
If you think that a 2,900 majority is too small to hold in May how do you feel about the chances of the forty odd Conservative MPs who majorities are less than 2,900.
Pretty grim outlook for many of them, particularly in the north.
But Rochester isn't in that category of seats held by the Tories with a thin majority. They had a pretty comfortable one in 2010. In a mid-term protest vote by-election, they lost by a whisker. Precedent suggests it will be retaken when it matters. Clacton is another matter - you'd think Carswell has a good chance of holding on given his thumping triumph.
Andy_Cooke Posts: 130 November 18 Reposted FPT - to demonstrate just how much assumptions can affect the seat score for the Lib Dems at polling on this level, using pure UNS: antifrank said: If the Lib Dems really did tally 5% at the general election, I expect that they would take Orkney & Shetland, Westmorland & Lonsdale, Norfolk North and Ross, Skye & Lochaber. They would be lucky to take another seat.
Well, UNS is only an indication at the best of times, but if you construct a UNS spreadsheet and put a hard floor on the vote score (which you really need to do with the Lib Dems at the moment), then a lot is down to assumption, of course.
- Assume a hard floor at 1.5% in any constituency. - Assume that vote scores under 5% are harder to compress (give a 1.5% boost to any score that would be under 5% with a hard stop at 1.5%) - Assume no incumbency boost - Separate out Scotland (Giving them 3.5% in Scotland to reflect a further hit; UKIP only 10% in Scotland rather than 20%) - Give Tories 17% in Scotland (similar to last time) - Have Labour and SNP level on 31% in Scotland - Use Con 34, Lab 33, LD 5, UKIP 20, Green 5 for GB
... You get (on straight UNS) 9 LD seats (7 in England, 1 in Scotland, 1 in Wales) (For reference, you end up with Lab 323, Con 277, SNP 17, LD 9, Plaid 3, Green 2, UKIP 1)
Of course, you'll have some incumbency boost (which is what UKIP are relying on in Clacton and (they hope) Rochester). If you shove in a 2% incumbency boost for the Big Two parties (which seems consistent with pervious elections; could be questionable this time) and a 6% incumbency boost for Lib Dems (looks reasonably consistent with the Ashcroft figure) and adjust the Clacton seat by hand - otherwise it's utterly unwinnable for UKIP; on those figures, it's gonna be held by them.
...
You get 16 LD seats on 5% of the vote, with it never going negative or even below 1.5% in any seat.
(Lab 312, Con 280, SNP 17, LD 16, Plaid 3, UKIP 2, Green 2.
All for whatever it's worth. That's just what UNS produces under those assumptions (which don't look too implausible). It is, as with any modelling, highly artificial, but it does show that even on very low figures, the Lib Dems can get a few seats.
Assume a hard floor at 1.5% in any constituency.
That clearly doesn't hold for the Lib Dems any more and I'd say the hard floor needed is 0.5%.
That marginally improves their chances, all else being equal under FPTP.
Ugh. What it is with the English left? They must be one of the few groups of people in the world that have such distaste for their own country and culture. This is why they love immigration so much: they prefer the culture of Kashmir and Romania.
The English being "ghastly in so many rich and varied ways" should go on the next UKIP leaflet.
As for Rochester, I'm delighted that Mark Reckless will be looking for a new role in 6 months time.
Can't see him holding that paper thin majority in May when it comes to a vote that matters.
Good riddance to him too.
The result should also shore up and settle nerves all round on the Tory benches. All is not lost, but I still think Cameron faces a massive battle to cling on to power and stop us getting our first ever universally unwanted and accidental PM. The Labour voters are more likely to return to the fold than the pee'd off "wish it was 1984" (if not 1954) ex-Tories!
When the Rochester campaign kicked off, Conservative MPs were told by their leadership, and their hired election experts, that UKIP were beatable, and that the Conservatives Would Win.
As for Rochester, I'm delighted that Mark Reckless will be looking for a new role in 6 months time.
Can't see him holding that paper thin majority in May when it comes to a vote that matters.
Good riddance to him too.
The result should also shore up and settle nerves all round on the Tory benches. All is not lost, but I still think Cameron faces a massive battle to cling on to power and stop us getting our first ever universally unwanted and accidental PM. The Labour voters are more likely to return to the fold than the pee'd off "wish it was 1984" (if not 1954) ex-Tories!
When the Rochester campaign kicked off, Conservative MPs were told by their leadership, and their hired election experts, that UKIP were beatable, and that the Conservatives Would Win.
The result in Rochester and Strood offers some disappointment to all the contenders. Mark Reckless gained the seat but with a smaller majority than Nigel Farage will think safe. David Cameron lost a second seat to Ukip, while the Lib Dems were all but obliterated, taking less than one per cent of the vote.
But it was Ed Miliband who somehow contrived to come off worst.
Andy_Cooke Posts: 130 November 18 Reposted FPT - to demonstrate just how much assumptions can affect the seat score for the Lib Dems at polling on this level, using pure UNS: antifrank said: If the Lib Dems really did tally 5% at the general election, I expect that they would take Orkney & Shetland, Westmorland & Lonsdale, Norfolk North and Ross, Skye & Lochaber. They would be lucky to take another seat.
Well, UNS is only an indication at the best of times, but if you construct a UNS spreadsheet and put a hard floor on the vote score (which you really need to do with the Lib Dems at the moment), then a lot is down to assumption, of course.
- Assume a hard floor at 1.5% in any constituency. - Assume that vote scores under 5% are harder to compress (give a 1.5% boost to any score that would be under 5% with a hard stop at 1.5%) - Assume no incumbency boost - Separate out Scotland (Giving them 3.5% in Scotland to reflect a further hit; UKIP only 10% in Scotland rather than 20%) - Give Tories 17% in Scotland (similar to last time) - Have Labour and SNP level on 31% in Scotland - Use Con 34, Lab 33, LD 5, UKIP 20, Green 5 for GB
... You get (on straight UNS) 9 LD seats (7 in England, 1 in Scotland, 1 in Wales) (For reference, you end up with Lab 323, Con 277, SNP 17, LD 9, Plaid 3, Green 2, UKIP 1)
Of course, you'll have some incumbency boost (which is what UKIP are relying on in Clacton and (they hope) Rochester). If you shove in a 2% incumbency boost for the Big Two parties (which seems consistent with pervious elections; could be questionable this time) and a 6% incumbency boost for Lib Dems (looks reasonably consistent with the Ashcroft figure) and adjust the Clacton seat by hand - otherwise it's utterly unwinnable for UKIP; on those figures, it's gonna be held by them.
...
You get 16 LD seats on 5% of the vote, with it never going negative or even below 1.5% in any seat.
(Lab 312, Con 280, SNP 17, LD 16, Plaid 3, UKIP 2, Green 2.
All for whatever it's worth. That's just what UNS produces under those assumptions (which don't look too implausible). It is, as with any modelling, highly artificial, but it does show that even on very low figures, the Lib Dems can get a few seats.
Assume a hard floor at 1.5% in any constituency.
That clearly doesn't hold for the Lib Dems any more and I'd say the hard floor needed is 0.5%.
That marginally improves their chances, all else being equal under FPTP.
I didn't see this post originally.
The incumbency boost assumed for the Lib Dems would take their poll share above 5%.
"You should not be surprised that the English have turned out so badly when imperialism and slavery corrupt most of their history. the lesson continues. A shameful past and disgraceful present ought to damn them to perpetual guilt."
I know he's describing someone else's view, but he later says they're "not wrong". It's so sickening. The same leftists love Italy and France, but I suppose they're not educated about history enough to know the crimes in Abyssinia and Indochina...
Ugh. What it is with the English left? They must be one of the few groups of people in the world that have such distaste for their own country and culture. This is why they love immigration so much: they prefer the culture of Kashmir and Romania.
The English being "ghastly in so many rich and varied ways" should go on the next UKIP leaflet.
UKIP and the tories will hammer the Labour = 'anti-English' thing in the coming months, I guess.
With both parties singing from the same hymn sheet, it may be a powerful message.
And the message implied from the white van tweet is amply reinforced by Labour resisting Tory attempts to bring in EVEL.
They hate the English, outside the Labour rotten boroughs.
You will hear nothing about EVEL if a minority Conservative government is propped up by DUP votes after next May .
You foresee a situation where the Tories would have a UK majority with just the DUP's seats but would be in a minority in England?! How on earth would that work?
UKIP and the tories will hammer the Labour = 'anti-English' thing in the coming months, I guess.
With both parties singing from the same hymn sheet, it may be a powerful message.
And the message implied from the white van tweet is amply reinforced by Labour resisting Tory attempts to bring in EVEL.
They hate the English, outside the Labour rotten boroughs.
You will hear nothing about EVEL if a minority Conservative government is propped up by DUP votes after next May .
You foresee a situation where the Tories would have a UK majority with just the DUP's seats but would be in a minority in England?! How on earth would that work?
UKIP and the tories will hammer the Labour = 'anti-English' thing in the coming months, I guess.
With both parties singing from the same hymn sheet, it may be a powerful message.
And the message implied from the white van tweet is amply reinforced by Labour resisting Tory attempts to bring in EVEL.
They hate the English, outside the Labour rotten boroughs.
You will hear nothing about EVEL if a minority Conservative government is propped up by DUP votes after next May .
You foresee a situation where the Tories would have a UK majority with just the DUP's seats but would be in a minority in England?! How on earth would that work?
It implies a total SNP collapse in Scotland.
And a Conservative surge in either Scotland or Wales.
UKIP and the tories will hammer the Labour = 'anti-English' thing in the coming months, I guess.
With both parties singing from the same hymn sheet, it may be a powerful message.
And the message implied from the white van tweet is amply reinforced by Labour resisting Tory attempts to bring in EVEL.
They hate the English, outside the Labour rotten boroughs.
You will hear nothing about EVEL if a minority Conservative government is propped up by DUP votes after next May .
You foresee a situation where the Tories would have a UK majority with just the DUP's seats but would be in a minority in England?! How on earth would that work?
The Conservatives will definitely be in a minority in terms of vote share in England .
UKIP and the tories will hammer the Labour = 'anti-English' thing in the coming months, I guess.
With both parties singing from the same hymn sheet, it may be a powerful message.
And the message implied from the white van tweet is amply reinforced by Labour resisting Tory attempts to bring in EVEL.
They hate the English, outside the Labour rotten boroughs.
You will hear nothing about EVEL if a minority Conservative government is propped up by DUP votes after next May .
You foresee a situation where the Tories would have a UK majority with just the DUP's seats but would be in a minority in England?! How on earth would that work?
The Conservatives will definitely be in a minority in terms of votes in England .
Yes... but about the situation where they would have a UK majority with just the DUP's seats but a minority of seats in England. How would you foresee that coming about?
UKIP and the tories will hammer the Labour = 'anti-English' thing in the coming months, I guess.
With both parties singing from the same hymn sheet, it may be a powerful message.
And the message implied from the white van tweet is amply reinforced by Labour resisting Tory attempts to bring in EVEL.
They hate the English, outside the Labour rotten boroughs.
You will hear nothing about EVEL if a minority Conservative government is propped up by DUP votes after next May .
You foresee a situation where the Tories would have a UK majority with just the DUP's seats but would be in a minority in England?! How on earth would that work?
It implies a total SNP collapse in Scotland.
Sounds like an exciting contest. You should stand against them both.
UKIP and the tories will hammer the Labour = 'anti-English' thing in the coming months, I guess.
With both parties singing from the same hymn sheet, it may be a powerful message.
And the message implied from the white van tweet is amply reinforced by Labour resisting Tory attempts to bring in EVEL.
They hate the English, outside the Labour rotten boroughs.
You will hear nothing about EVEL if a minority Conservative government is propped up by DUP votes after next May .
You foresee a situation where the Tories would have a UK majority with just the DUP's seats but would be in a minority in England?! How on earth would that work?
The Conservatives will definitely be in a minority in terms of vote share in England .
And the SNP will probably be a minority in terms of vote share in Scotland.
UKIP and the tories will hammer the Labour = 'anti-English' thing in the coming months, I guess.
With both parties singing from the same hymn sheet, it may be a powerful message.
And the message implied from the white van tweet is amply reinforced by Labour resisting Tory attempts to bring in EVEL.
They hate the English, outside the Labour rotten boroughs.
You will hear nothing about EVEL if a minority Conservative government is propped up by DUP votes after next May .
You foresee a situation where the Tories would have a UK majority with just the DUP's seats but would be in a minority in England?! How on earth would that work?
It implies a total SNP collapse in Scotland.
Sounds like an exciting contest. You should stand against them both.
My apologies to OGH, Fat Steve and all PBers at DDs tonight. I still feel a bit under the weather after my prolonged bout of flu and pneumonia, so will be staying at home. Have fun though.
UKIP and the tories will hammer the Labour = 'anti-English' thing in the coming months, I guess.
With both parties singing from the same hymn sheet, it may be a powerful message.
And the message implied from the white van tweet is amply reinforced by Labour resisting Tory attempts to bring in EVEL.
They hate the English, outside the Labour rotten boroughs.
You will hear nothing about EVEL if a minority Conservative government is propped up by DUP votes after next May .
You foresee a situation where the Tories would have a UK majority with just the DUP's seats but would be in a minority in England?! How on earth would that work?
The Conservatives will definitely be in a minority in terms of votes in England .
Yes... but about the situation where they would have a UK majority with just the DUP's seats but a minority of seats in England. How would you foresee that coming about?
Why should I see that situation coming about for my statement to be correct . The Conservatives would quietly forget about EVEL and not replace the WLQ with the West Derry Question .
My apologies to OGH, Fat Steve and all PBers at DDs tonight. I still feel a bit under the weather after my prolonged bout of flu and pneumonia, so will be staying at home. Have fun though.
Wish you better, Mike. We'll raise a glass to you.
UKIP and the tories will hammer the Labour = 'anti-English' thing in the coming months, I guess.
With both parties singing from the same hymn sheet, it may be a powerful message.
And the message implied from the white van tweet is amply reinforced by Labour resisting Tory attempts to bring in EVEL.
They hate the English, outside the Labour rotten boroughs.
You will hear nothing about EVEL if a minority Conservative government is propped up by DUP votes after next May .
You foresee a situation where the Tories would have a UK majority with just the DUP's seats but would be in a minority in England?! How on earth would that work?
The Conservatives will definitely be in a minority in terms of votes in England .
Yes... but about the situation where they would have a UK majority with just the DUP's seats but a minority of seats in England. How would you foresee that coming about?
Why should I see that situation coming about for my statement to be correct . The Conservatives would quietly forget about EVEL and not replace the WLQ with the West Derry Question .
Why would they unless they need DUP votes to command a majority on England only issues?
It's clearly an internal outlier. Which pushes up the Labour score a bit too much. Knock out the 55 Labour votes from Scotland and replace with 30 I reckon.
Thornberry should have stood her ground then if that is what she really thinks. Ed may told her to run off the plank but she dived off herself.
They're best rid of her I think.
See what I mean about her being a gobshite?
She's resigned so she doesn't damage the Labour party yet she's gobbing off about how it's everyone else's fault and blaming Miliband. How does that work?
It's clearly an internal outlier. Which pushes up the Labour score a bit too much. Knock out the 55 Labour votes from Scotland and replace with 30 I reckon.
Cons and Tories basically level.
Hasnt every poll had the Cons and Tories level
Quick edit it nobody has noticed!!
Note the amount of 5 out of 10 Labour voters too, all 20 of them. That is an ever present feature of the Labour Populus score which never ever ever goes away.
It's clearly an internal outlier. Which pushes up the Labour score a bit too much. Knock out the 55 Labour votes from Scotland and replace with 30 I reckon.
Cons and Tories basically level.
Hasnt every poll had the Cons and Tories level
Quick edit it nobody has noticed!!
If we assume that the two parties are almost level, we should expect to see plenty of polls putting either one ahead of the other.
"You should not be surprised that the English have turned out so badly when imperialism and slavery corrupt most of their history. the lesson continues. A shameful past and disgraceful present ought to damn them to perpetual guilt."
I know he's describing someone else's view, but he later says they're "not wrong". It's so sickening. The same leftists love Italy and France, but I suppose they're not educated about history enough to know the crimes in Abyssinia and Indochina...
Nick Cohen was, of course, one of the most vocal cheerleaders for Bush and Blair's disastrous neo-imperialist adventures in Iraq and elsewhere. It's amazing that anyone takes these hypocrites and frauds seriously anymore.
Thornberry should have stood her ground then if that is what she really thinks. Ed may told her to run off the plank but she dived off herself.
They're best rid of her I think.
See what I mean about her being a gobshite?
She's resigned so she doesn't damage the Labour party yet she's gobbing off about how it's everyone else's fault and blaming Miliband. How does that work?
Where are the letters between them with the normal niceties of "with regret I accept your resignation blah blah" ?!
"You should not be surprised that the English have turned out so badly when imperialism and slavery corrupt most of their history. the lesson continues. A shameful past and disgraceful present ought to damn them to perpetual guilt."
I know he's describing someone else's view, but he later says they're "not wrong". It's so sickening. The same leftists love Italy and France, but I suppose they're not educated about history enough to know the crimes in Abyssinia and Indochina...
To be fair, I think that he is describing other leftists' attitudes rather than his own.
Of course, slavery and imperialism are part of our history, as they are part of the history of any country or people.
Conan Doyle put it well, when he said of our ancestors "Strive to emulate their virtues, while avoiding their vices."
One of my passions is reading 14th and 15th century history. One can find plenty of plenty of bigotry and cruelty in that history, but also plenty of wit, humour, compassion, courage, and resilience in the face of danger.
"You should not be surprised that the English have turned out so badly when imperialism and slavery corrupt most of their history. the lesson continues. A shameful past and disgraceful present ought to damn them to perpetual guilt."
I know he's describing someone else's view, but he later says they're "not wrong". It's so sickening. The same leftists love Italy and France, but I suppose they're not educated about history enough to know the crimes in Abyssinia and Indochina...
Nick Cohen was, of course, one of the most vocal cheerleaders for Bush and Blair's disastrous neo-imperialist adventures in Iraq and elsewhere. It's amazing that anyone takes these hypocrites and frauds seriously anymore.
"You should not be surprised that the English have turned out so badly when imperialism and slavery corrupt most of their history. the lesson continues. A shameful past and disgraceful present ought to damn them to perpetual guilt."
I know he's describing someone else's view, but he later says they're "not wrong". It's so sickening. The same leftists love Italy and France, but I suppose they're not educated about history enough to know the crimes in Abyssinia and Indochina...
To be fair, I think that he is describing other leftists' attitudes rather than his own.
Of course, slavery and imperialism are part of our history, as they are part of the history of any country or people.
Conan Doyle put it well, when he said of our ancestors "Strive to emulate their virtues, while avoiding their vices."
One of my passions is reading 14th and 15th century history. One can find plenty of plenty of bigotry and cruelty in that history, but also plenty of wit, humour, compassion, courage, and resilience in the face of danger.
Could you possibly find the exact quote? I can't find it anywhere I I would love it for future reference.
I have an idea for a betting market. If we have debates next year and they involve Ukip, how many times will Cameron or Miliband say 'I agree with Nigel.'
Not being serious as I suspect the answer would be zero. However it seems with Dave in particular that almost every statement he makes nowadays could be prefixed 'I agree with Nigel.' So what are voters to think? Presumably that Nigel is the leader and Dave is the follower. Worth remembering that 'I agree with Nick' didn't do Gordon Brown any favours.
UKIP and the tories will hammer the Labour = 'anti-English' thing in the coming months, I guess.
With both parties singing from the same hymn sheet, it may be a powerful message.
And the message implied from the white van tweet is amply reinforced by Labour resisting Tory attempts to bring in EVEL.
They hate the English, outside the Labour rotten boroughs.
You will hear nothing about EVEL if a minority Conservative government is propped up by DUP votes after next May .
You foresee a situation where the Tories would have a UK majority with just the DUP's seats but would be in a minority in England?! How on earth would that work?
The Conservatives will definitely be in a minority in terms of votes in England .
Yes... but about the situation where they would have a UK majority with just the DUP's seats but a minority of seats in England. How would you foresee that coming about?
Why should I see that situation coming about for my statement to be correct . The Conservatives would quietly forget about EVEL and not replace the WLQ with the West Derry Question .
Why would they unless they need DUP votes to command a majority on England only issues?
Because they wouldn't be able to vote through EV4EL without DUP support, which would presumably come at a price.
"You should not be surprised that the English have turned out so badly when imperialism and slavery corrupt most of their history. the lesson continues. A shameful past and disgraceful present ought to damn them to perpetual guilt."
I know he's describing someone else's view, but he later says they're "not wrong". It's so sickening. The same leftists love Italy and France, but I suppose they're not educated about history enough to know the crimes in Abyssinia and Indochina...
Nick Cohen was, of course, one of the most vocal cheerleaders for Bush and Blair's disastrous neo-imperialist adventures in Iraq and elsewhere. It's amazing that anyone takes these hypocrites and frauds seriously anymore.
And a past poster on pbc.
I well remember him giving the vital EdM to win the Labour leadership tip. His equivalent of making the trains run on time.
The Tories remain the Tories (the party of cuts and fox hunting) and the Lib Dems are just the past time of the half mad. Out of this slide towards metropolitanism, only Ukip has managed to project a sense of “getting” hard pressed voters. People don’t necessarily agree with Farage or even possibly like him. But they know what he is; they understand a man like that. And so long as Ukip is respected for being unpretentious, it also won’t be punished in the same way as the other parties are for doing things like u-turning or harbouring the odd racist.
To beat Ukip and retake command of the national political narrative, the mainstream parties have to reconnect with the people and to demonstrate that they share their concerns, are being honest about the problems ahead, and have faith in the common sense of ordinary people. Labour and the Tories have to remember that – to borrow an American phrase – the average man and the average woman is the king and queen of British politics. They are the masters and the successful politician is simply their servant.
Exactly.. people don't care a whole lot what Farage's policies are, they just want an unpretentious party that sounds like it gets what its like to be an ordinary person.
Sorry but this is rot. Politicians can 'get' people and 'listen' to them all they want, but this is useless unless they realise that they are in place to govern on behalf of the electorate, not the electorate being in place to keep them in government. To say it's all about someone 'talking their language' is completely to miss the point.
Thornberry should have stood her ground then if that is what she really thinks. Ed may told her to run off the plank but she dived off herself.
They're best rid of her I think.
See what I mean about her being a gobshite?
She's resigned so she doesn't damage the Labour party yet she's gobbing off about how it's everyone else's fault and blaming Miliband. How does that work?
Where are the letters between them with the normal niceties of "with regret I accept your resignation blah blah" ?!
...unbelievable. There's no way back now. I was wondering this morning whether Ed could quietly slip her into the attorney's job if he wins in May, as its a very low profile, but obviously important legal post. No chance after this.
I have an idea for a betting market. If we have debates next year and they involve Ukip, how many times will Cameron or Miliband say 'I agree with Nigel.'
Not being serious as I suspect the answer would be zero. However it seems with Dave in particular that almost every statement he makes nowadays could be prefixed 'I agree with Nigel.' So what are voters to think? Presumably that Nigel is the leader and Dave is the follower. Worth remembering that 'I agree with Nick' didn't do Gordon Brown any favours.
What I suspect Cameron will do is say 'I disagree with Nigel' and then come up with a policy that looks identical to UKIP's.
I think my previous support of Kelly against unwarranted personal criticism of her on here and elsewhere has to a good extent been born out. The girl can be proud of her effort. Don't uncritically swallow all that hype about Tories throwing the kitchen sink at it. Yes of course they did so but so did Ukip. In fact those that spent any time there at all will have seen they were even more high profile in the constituency many with the starry eyed enthusiasm of the new convert for the cause. However Kelly worked exceedingly hard in the limited time she had, clearly communicates well with R & S voters on a personal level and I would suggest the flip-flopping Reckless will have a right battle on his hands next May if she remains the Tory candidate,
Chuckle - never pegged you for a South Park aficionado... ; )
South Park is awesome! My particualr favourites for (those with access to Youtube and nothing better to do) are the Philip and Terrance uncle song and then the evolution speech from Mr Garrison. ;-)
She came from Islington she had a thirst for knowledge She studied Bollocks at Mandela College that’s where I caught her eye.
She told me that her Dad was loaded I said in that case I’ll have a pint of two pints of lager and a packet of crisps please She said fine and in thirty seconds time she said I have contempt for the common people I want piss on the common people I want to laugh at the common people I want to piss on common people like you. Well what else could I do I said I’m voting UKIP luv, Fuck you
"You should not be surprised that the English have turned out so badly when imperialism and slavery corrupt most of their history. the lesson continues. A shameful past and disgraceful present ought to damn them to perpetual guilt."
I know he's describing someone else's view, but he later says they're "not wrong". It's so sickening. The same leftists love Italy and France, but I suppose they're not educated about history enough to know the crimes in Abyssinia and Indochina...
To be fair, I think that he is describing other leftists' attitudes rather than his own.
Of course, slavery and imperialism are part of our history, as they are part of the history of any country or people.
Conan Doyle put it well, when he said of our ancestors "Strive to emulate their virtues, while avoiding their vices."
One of my passions is reading 14th and 15th century history. One can find plenty of plenty of bigotry and cruelty in that history, but also plenty of wit, humour, compassion, courage, and resilience in the face of danger.
Most leftists can't do that though, because they don't value English history because they don't like the English. They dislike the the English working class, they dislike the English middle class and they dislike the English upper class. From top to bottom, they despise this country. The leader of the opposition doesn't think it's even a nation of the UK to be included in the Upper House.
(There are a handful of honourable leftists that do like this country, but they are few and fair between. The fact that Nick Cohen had to say "well yes we all know they're ghastly" so that he can be given a hearing by his audience says it all.)
"You should not be surprised that the English have turned out so badly when imperialism and slavery corrupt most of their history. the lesson continues. A shameful past and disgraceful present ought to damn them to perpetual guilt."
I know he's describing someone else's view, but he later says they're "not wrong". It's so sickening. The same leftists love Italy and France, but I suppose they're not educated about history enough to know the crimes in Abyssinia and Indochina...
To be fair, I think that he is describing other leftists' attitudes rather than his own.
Of course, slavery and imperialism are part of our history, as they are part of the history of any country or people.
Conan Doyle put it well, when he said of our ancestors "Strive to emulate their virtues, while avoiding their vices."
One of my passions is reading 14th and 15th century history. One can find plenty of plenty of bigotry and cruelty in that history, but also plenty of wit, humour, compassion, courage, and resilience in the face of danger.
Could you possibly find the exact quote? I can't find it anywhere I I would love it for future reference.
No one seems to have commented on the fact that one of those England flags has a West Ham logo emblazoned across it. The real explanation is simple: Emily Thornberry is a Millwall supporter.
Perhaps if Emily digs a big enough hole for herself she figures it will make it look like Miliband was in the right ?
She should have been able to survive the initial tweet, even the sacking (To come back at a future date) but she's just kept digging and digging and digging...
"The BBC's Nick Robinson describes Labour as like a by-stander watching David Cameron drive towards a wall at 100 mph, only to leap in front of the car at the last minute."
Says all you need to know about Labour's catastrophic last 12 hours.
The key significance of Rochester, and the attendant farcical side-show kindly laid on for our entertainment by Ms Thornberry, is what it tells us about whether UKIP will, relative to where we are now, damage Labour more than the Conservatives next May. UKIP have certainly moved heavily to the populist left in their messaging, and the Rochester voting figures do seem to confirm that UKIP's support is increasingly coming from the traditional WWC voters whom Labour used to claim as their own, rather than from conventional Tory types.
As the election comes into focus, will we see the differential swingback which I've been speculating about for some time? It's looking increasingly like it, and, if so, the impact on the key Lab/Con marginals is going to be critical to the election. It is also probably going to be quite patchy, varying a lot according to the demographics of the different marginals.
Chuckle - never pegged you for a South Park aficionado... ; )
South Park is awesome! My particualr favourites for (those with access to Youtube and nothing better to do) are the Philip and Terrance uncle song and then the evolution speech from Mr Garrison. ;-)
The pisstake of the founding of the Mormon Church is hard to beat - dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb!
Does Gove really think KT was an excellent candidate?
Also a very good result OMG
In a way I don't care what Gove thinks given he need to up his game as Chief Whip himself. The voters of R & S are the people that count. And did I ever say it was a very good result? However it could quite easily have been a disastrous result - that was not only avoided but left the seat easily open to being recaptured in May so not too bad I would say.
"You should not be surprised that the English have turned out so badly when imperialism and slavery corrupt most of their history. the lesson continues. A shameful past and disgraceful present ought to damn them to perpetual guilt."
I know he's describing someone else's view, but he later says they're "not wrong". It's so sickening. The same leftists love Italy and France, but I suppose they're not educated about history enough to know the crimes in Abyssinia and Indochina...
To be fair, I think that he is describing other leftists' attitudes rather than his own.
Of course, slavery and imperialism are part of our history, as they are part of the history of any country or people.
Conan Doyle put it well, when he said of our ancestors "Strive to emulate their virtues, while avoiding their vices."
One of my passions is reading 14th and 15th century history. One can find plenty of plenty of bigotry and cruelty in that history, but also plenty of wit, humour, compassion, courage, and resilience in the face of danger.
Most leftists can't do that though, because they don't value English history because they don't like the English. They dislike the the English working class, they dislike the English middle class and they dislike the English upper class. From top to bottom, they despise this country. The leader of the opposition doesn't think it's even a nation of the UK to be included in the Upper House.
(There are a handful of honourable leftists that do like this country, but they are few and fair between. The fact that Nick Cohen had to say "well yes we all know they're ghastly" so that he can be given a hearing by his audience says it all.)
They also hate the market, the Church, the nuclear family, and anything else that gets in the way of the supremacy of the state. That's socialism. There are exceptions, but not ideologically coherent ones.
No one seems to have commented on the fact that one of those England flags has a West Ham logo emblazoned across it. The real explanation is simple: Emily Thornberry is a Millwall supporter.
Ugh. What it is with the English left? They must be one of the few groups of people in the world that have such distaste for their own country and culture. This is why they love immigration so much: they prefer the culture of Kashmir and Romania.
The English being "ghastly in so many rich and varied ways" should go on the next UKIP leaflet.
Not sure what Cohen has said about imperialism but I thought that was an excellent article! In a nutshell essentially asking why Labour and Lib Dem voters should tactically support the Tories when Cameron has let the likes of Grayling and Duncan Smith have free rein, continually given in to the right wing of his party and prioritised millionaires.
Labour used to be able to hide their sneering intellectuals. Now they can't.
For sure - sneering intellectuals + dinosaurs = the core vote that remains. (and the luvvie part of the sneerers is peeling away). They should rebrand themselves the Fabian Tarquin Polenta party soon.
She came from Islington she had a thirst for knowledge She studied Bollocks at Mandela College that’s where I caught her eye.
She told me that her Dad was loaded I said in that case I’ll have a pint of two pints of lager and a packet of crisps please She said fine and in thirty seconds time she said I have contempt for the common people I want piss on the common people I want to laugh at the common people I want to piss on common people like you. Well what else could I do I said I’m voting UKIP luv, Fuck you
To the tune of Pulp's 'Common people' right? A little crude but quite apt.
Interesting Twitter debate between Matthew Goodwin & David Aaronovitch on appropriateness of Thornberry sacking - the latter arguing its an over-reaction that has kept the story in the news, the former that the symbolism was so toxic Miliband had no alternative.
Omg - the comments are really funny puts the naffo comedians on the beeb to shame. The one with her in a St. George swimsuit and the one just called lunch are really epic.
Omg - the comments are really funny puts the naffo comedians on the beeb to shame. The one with her in a St. George swimsuit and the one just called lunch are really epic.
If I could be bothered I'd embed the Tweetpic here. It's a beaut.
"You should not be surprised that the English have turned out so badly when imperialism and slavery corrupt most of their history. the lesson continues. A shameful past and disgraceful present ought to damn them to perpetual guilt."
I know he's describing someone else's view, but he later says they're "not wrong". It's so sickening. The same leftists love Italy and France, but I suppose they're not educated about history enough to know the crimes in Abyssinia and Indochina...
To be fair, I think that he is describing other leftists' attitudes rather than his own.
Of course, slavery and imperialism are part of our history, as they are part of the history of any country or people.
Conan Doyle put it well, when he said of our ancestors "Strive to emulate their virtues, while avoiding their vices."
One of my passions is reading 14th and 15th century history. One can find plenty of plenty of bigotry and cruelty in that history, but also plenty of wit, humour, compassion, courage, and resilience in the face of danger.
Most leftists can't do that though, because they don't value English history because they don't like the English. They dislike the the English working class, they dislike the English middle class and they dislike the English upper class. From top to bottom, they despise this country. The leader of the opposition doesn't think it's even a nation of the UK to be included in the Upper House.
(There are a handful of honourable leftists that do like this country, but they are few and fair between. The fact that Nick Cohen had to say "well yes we all know they're ghastly" so that he can be given a hearing by his audience says it all.)
They also hate the market, the Church, the nuclear family, and anything else that gets in the way of the supremacy of the state. That's socialism. There are exceptions, but not ideologically coherent ones.
I'd substitute 'free enterprise' for 'the market', but otherwise, bang on the money.
"You should not be surprised that the English have turned out so badly when imperialism and slavery corrupt most of their history. the lesson continues. A shameful past and disgraceful present ought to damn them to perpetual guilt."
I know he's describing someone else's view, but he later says they're "not wrong". It's so sickening. The same leftists love Italy and France, but I suppose they're not educated about history enough to know the crimes in Abyssinia and Indochina...
Nick Cohen was, of course, one of the most vocal cheerleaders for Bush and Blair's disastrous neo-imperialist adventures in Iraq and elsewhere. It's amazing that anyone takes these hypocrites and frauds seriously anymore.
Comments
That did not happen.
With both parties singing from the same hymn sheet, it may be a powerful message.
If you think that a 2,900 majority is too small to hold in May how do you feel about the chances of the forty odd Conservative MPs who majorities are less than 2,900.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11244453/Theresa-May-to-give-MI5-and-police-power-to-force-terror-suspects-to-move.html
If only someone could invent a place where people could back up their thoughts on who would win a particular seat with hard cash and we could read from the prices they demand for that cash an implied probability of victory for each of the main parties. If that ever happened we could get together and start a blog commenting on the movements in those prices / implied probabilities and how to make money from them.
But Rochester isn't in that category of seats held by the Tories with a thin majority. They had a pretty comfortable one in 2010. In a mid-term protest vote by-election, they lost by a whisker. Precedent suggests it will be retaken when it matters. Clacton is another matter - you'd think Carswell has a good chance of holding on given his thumping triumph.
That clearly doesn't hold for the Lib Dems any more and I'd say the hard floor needed is 0.5%.
That marginally improves their chances, all else being equal under FPTP.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11244932/Emily-Thornberry-appears-defiant-after-being-sacked-by-Ed-Miliband.html
They hate the English, outside the Labour rotten boroughs.
The English being "ghastly in so many rich and varied ways" should go on the next UKIP leaflet.
But it was Ed Miliband who somehow contrived to come off worst.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11244995/Rochester-by-election-How-Ed-Miliband-turned-expected-defeat-into-utter-disaster.html
The incumbency boost assumed for the Lib Dems would take their poll share above 5%.
"You should not be surprised that the English have turned out so badly when imperialism and slavery corrupt most of their history. the lesson continues. A shameful past and disgraceful present ought to damn them to perpetual guilt."
I know he's describing someone else's view, but he later says they're "not wrong". It's so sickening. The same leftists love Italy and France, but I suppose they're not educated about history enough to know the crimes in Abyssinia and Indochina...
Quite. This will be extremely awkward for labour.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30141156
They're best rid of her I think.
But what's that got to do with the price of fish.
http://www.itv.com/news/border/2014-11-21/sturgeon-reshuffles-the-snp-pack/
My apologies to OGH, Fat Steve and all PBers at DDs tonight. I still feel a bit under the weather after my prolonged bout of flu and pneumonia, so will be staying at home. Have fun though.
Quick edit it nobody has noticed!!
She's resigned so she doesn't damage the Labour party yet she's gobbing off about how it's everyone else's fault and blaming Miliband. How does that work?
http://www.matthewjgoodwin.com/2014/11/where-are-other-kent-seats-in-rankings.html
Of course, slavery and imperialism are part of our history, as they are part of the history of any country or people.
Conan Doyle put it well, when he said of our ancestors "Strive to emulate their virtues, while avoiding their vices."
One of my passions is reading 14th and 15th century history. One can find plenty of plenty of bigotry and cruelty in that history, but also plenty of wit, humour, compassion, courage, and resilience in the face of danger.
Not being serious as I suspect the answer would be zero. However it seems with Dave in particular that almost every statement he makes nowadays could be prefixed 'I agree with Nigel.' So what are voters to think? Presumably that Nigel is the leader and Dave is the follower. Worth remembering that 'I agree with Nick' didn't do Gordon Brown any favours.
Are you still confident that the Lib Dems can or will fight Oxford West and Abingdon, given their national picture?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/20/emily-thornberry-resigns-rochester-tweet-labour-shadow-cabinet
Sorry but this is rot. Politicians can 'get' people and 'listen' to them all they want, but this is useless unless they realise that they are in place to govern on behalf of the electorate, not the electorate being in place to keep them in government. To say it's all about someone 'talking their language' is completely to miss the point.
http://order-order.com/2014/11/21/what-does-thornberry-really-thinkfavourites-ashamed-2-b-english-in-these-dark-times-tweet/
She came from Islington
she had a thirst for knowledge
She studied Bollocks at Mandela College
that’s where I caught her eye.
She told me that her Dad was loaded
I said in that case I’ll have a pint of two pints of lager and a packet of crisps please
She said fine
and in thirty seconds time she said
I have contempt for the common people
I want piss on the common people
I want to laugh at the common people
I want to piss on common people like you.
Well what else could I do
I said I’m voting UKIP luv,
Fuck you
(There are a handful of honourable leftists that do like this country, but they are few and fair between. The fact that Nick Cohen had to say "well yes we all know they're ghastly" so that he can be given a hearing by his audience says it all.)
Also a very good result OMG
She should have been able to survive the initial tweet, even the sacking (To come back at a future date) but she's just kept digging and digging and digging...
Says all you need to know about Labour's catastrophic last 12 hours.
To be fair, I don;t think this is true of the genuine labour people who used to populate labour in the days when it was a genuine mass movement.
I don;t think Harold Wilson hated the English. Or Clem Attlee. Or James Callaghan. Or even, for that matter, Arthur Scargill.
Labour used to be able to hide their sneering intellectuals. Now they can't.
As the election comes into focus, will we see the differential swingback which I've been speculating about for some time? It's looking increasingly like it, and, if so, the impact on the key Lab/Con marginals is going to be critical to the election. It is also probably going to be quite patchy, varying a lot according to the demographics of the different marginals.
As for the candidate, she got closer to UKIP than the polls that preceded her selection suggested, and she achieved a higher vote percentage.
It may just have been that the pollsters' habitually underestimate Tory performance, or it could be that the candidate added some value.