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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mark Reckless wins Rochester for UKIP with a majority of 7.

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  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited November 2014

    dr_spyn said:

    Thornberry's late father went to Cambridge, became a professor of War Studies, was a consultant to Nato, held positions with UN. The working class girl from a council house story is interesting spin.

    Her parents divorced when she was seven and she lived with her mother, but clearly Labour does not want north London multi millionaires with posh houses married to expensive lawyers anywhere near the top of the party.....

    Reading her record (opposition to 90 days then 42 days detention and no howlers in the expenses) there's clearly more to her than her grating DP performance.

    She is married to a judge, who rents out at least one property.

    http://www.thecnj.com/islington/2007/083107/news083107_02.html
  • Patrick said:

    It's interesting. In many, many countries the act of having a flag on your house is quite unremarkable. USA, Canada, Netherlands (more than 50% in my boring street in the Hague - they're everywhere), etc. I think that England is simply normalising in this respect. Ordinary English are retaking ownership of the image from a distasteful minority of their own. This is a clear cultural shift that is beyond the control of politicians. We see Saltires in Scotland and think 'oh, a patriotic Scot' - and quite right. But see a St.George's Cross and we think what? We all need to update our cultural understanding. Especially lefties.

    I still think 'what a prat' when I drive in the USA and see American flags flying - I think they do exhibitionism to the nth degree there.
    Fair enough. But they don't see it that way. Which is the point. Here in NL where I live the flag is just part of being Dutch. It's a simple unremarkable source of pride in all things Orange. It has no party political or left/right significance. They're just happy to hang out their flag. No-one thinks or says anything about this. It's just part of the wallpaper of the Dutch nation. Pretty much the same in the USA (but with, admittedly, I suspect more southern / republican enthusiasm). I hope England becomes like the Dutch in this respect.
  • Bookies split on whether CON will retake Rochester at GE15
    William Hill http://goo.gl/jBN1WA 2/1
    Ladbrokes http://bit.ly/c5gpH6 4/6

    I don't know much about this seat but if Shadsy disagrees with Sidney you should always be betting against Sidney. That's as close to a golden rule of politics as there is.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Bookies split on whether CON will retake Rochester at GE15
    William Hill http://goo.gl/jBN1WA 2/1
    Ladbrokes http://bit.ly/c5gpH6 4/6

    Hills into 7-4.

    Pile as much as you can on the Tories here at that price.
    I can't get on the William Hill site at work. It's maddening. I can feel the money trickling between my fingers.
  • UKIP donors have been funding private polling in Kettering.

    Just like they did in Clacton and Rochester just before Carswell and Reckless defected.

    Philip Hollobone is the MP for Kettering.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    edited November 2014
    antifrank said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bookies split on whether CON will retake Rochester at GE15
    William Hill http://goo.gl/jBN1WA 2/1
    Ladbrokes http://bit.ly/c5gpH6 4/6

    Hills into 7-4.

    Pile as much as you can on the Tories here at that price.
    I can't get on the William Hill site at work. It's maddening. I can feel the money trickling between my fingers.
    Do you have a mobile phone?

    Use the browser on your phone, or ring them up.
  • Scott_P said:

    @TheStaggers: How Labour became the real loser in a Ukip vs Tory by-election - and how it snatched defeat from the jaws of victory: http://t.co/uPAt27yNcI

    The Staggers views this as a PR management problem by Ed's team but I agree with OGH "EdM's position would be so much stronger this morning if LAB had decided to make a fight of it. It had best candidate & could have won".

    Labour decided not to fight for a seat they used to have up to 5 years ago. The opposition should be gaining seats in by elections where they start in 2nd place if they want to have a majority after the GE. For a "bell-weather" seat, it is very strange as to why Labour abandoned it. Maybe there were too many WWC voters for Labour?
  • Mr. Antifrank, the surprised 7% aren't all the Scots polled, are they? :p
  • Why is the Ladbrokes website crap - by far the worst of the major bookies

    It's a white label of Betfair, so they always run more slowly and have worse odds :-)
  • Scott_P said:

    @TheStaggers: How Labour became the real loser in a Ukip vs Tory by-election - and how it snatched defeat from the jaws of victory: http://t.co/uPAt27yNcI

    The Staggers views this as a PR management problem by Ed's team but I agree with OGH "EdM's position would be so much stronger this morning if LAB had decided to make a fight of it. It had best candidate & could have won".

    Labour decided not to fight for a seat they used to have up to 5 years ago. The opposition should be gaining seats in by elections where they start in 2nd place if they want to have a majority after the GE. For a "bell-weather" seat, it is very strange as to why Labour abandoned it. Maybe there were too many WWC voters for Labour?
    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/108717/mr_rochester.html
  • Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    It's interesting. In many, many countries the act of having a flag on your house is quite unremarkable. USA, Canada, Netherlands (more than 50% in my boring street in the Hague - they're everywhere), etc. I think that England is simply normalising in this respect. Ordinary English are retaking ownership of the image from a distasteful minority of their own. This is a clear cultural shift that is beyond the control of politicians. We see Saltires in Scotland and think 'oh, a patriotic Scot' - and quite right. But see a St.George's Cross and we think what? We all need to update our cultural understanding. Especially lefties.

    I still think 'what a prat' when I drive in the USA and see American flags flying - I think they do exhibitionism to the nth degree there.
    Fair enough. But they don't see it that way. Which is the point. Here in NL where I live the flag is just part of being Dutch. It's a simple unremarkable source of pride in all things Orange. It has no party political or left/right significance. They're just happy to hang out their flag. No-one thinks or says anything about this. It's just part of the wallpaper of the Dutch nation. Pretty much the same in the USA (but with, admittedly, I suspect more southern / republican enthusiasm). I hope England becomes like the Dutch in this respect.
    Same goes in Norway. The Norwegian flag is all over the place and they even traditionally decorate their Christmas trees with it. No one (from Norway) would ever think it unusual.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    I do like it when one bookie is 5-4 and the other 7-4 in a 2 horse race.

    Skew it upsides Tories though I reckon.
  • Populus ‏@PopulusPolls

    Just 7% of public surprised to see England flag on someone's house. 28% feel patriotic, 28% indifferent, 24% proud.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B29MNmaIEAA7fDo.jpg

    Ridiculous poll ,if 24% of people really do feel proud why don't we see flags flying on 24% of houses? err because they don't really but feel they have to say they do
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls

    Just 7% of public surprised to see England flag on someone's house. 28% feel patriotic, 28% indifferent, 24% proud.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B29MNmaIEAA7fDo.jpg

    As a small boy, I remember my maternal grandfather (he was a carpenter and joiner) had a flagpole in his front garden. There he flew the St George's Cross on April 23rd and the Union Jack on many other days.

    Nobody thought this was unusual (the same happened in most villages from the church towers) - shows how far we have come and not for the better mostly.
  • antifrank said:

    Those naughty people at Populus:

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls · 3m3 minutes ago
    Just 7% of public surprised to see England flag on someone's house. 28% feel patriotic, 28% indifferent, 24% proud.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B29MNmaIEAA7fDo.jpg

    So Ed sacks a Front Bencher for the 1% (each) who are 'Offended' 'Intimidated' or 'Excluded'?

    What price the Patriotic 28% or Proud 24%?
  • Pulpstar said:

    I do like it when one bookie is 5-4 and the other 7-4 in a 2 horse race.

    Skew it upsides Tories though I reckon.

    Reminds me of the opening of the prices on Eastleigh when Chris Huhne pleaded guilty.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited November 2014
    antifrank said:

    Those naughty people at Populus:

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls · 3m3 minutes ago
    Just 7% of public surprised to see England flag on someone's house. 28% feel patriotic, 28% indifferent, 24% proud.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B29MNmaIEAA7fDo.jpg

    So I'm right. Over half proud or patriotic. And a quarter at least not negative. I wonder how many still in the 'negative / ashamed' camp? The sentiment HAS changed. For the better.

    Well done Miliband/Thornberry/Labour for completely missing a cultural shift that has massive implications for their electoral success! Knobbers.
  • antifrank said:

    Swiss_Bob said:

    Anyone else think we might see a Labour defection to UKIP this weekend?

    Since Nigel Farage has repeatedly this morning said that we won't see a defection today or tomorrow, I'm thinking not.
    He said that, less than 48 hours before the traito...Reckless defected.
    My thinking is that a number of Labour MPs are looking at what happened to Thornberry and losing all hope.

    Better to be the first to go?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    surbiton said:

    Are people still daydreaming about Lib Dem's winning 40 odd seats ?

    That can only happen if ALL their votes are piled on those 40 seats. The cold numbers do not add up any more. They are more toxic than the Tories. Unfortunately, also irrelevant. The latter probably hurting them even more.

    Lib Dems by region and main challenger

    Scotland 11.. (Lab 6, Tory 4, SNP 1)
    NE 2 .............(Lab 1, Tory 1)
    NW 6............ (Tory 4, Lab 2)
    Y+H 3.......... (Lab 2, Tory 1)
    Wales 3........ (Lab 1, Tory 1, Plaid 1)
    West Mids 2...(Lab 1, Tory 1)
    East 4............ (Tory 3, Lab 1)
    London 7....... (Tory 4, Lab 3)
    SE 4............... (Tory 3, UKIP 1)
    SW 15............ (Tory 14, Lab 1)

    I
  • JackW said:

    A staggeringly bad result for the LibDems with just 349, THREE HUNDRED AND FORTY NINE VOTES !
    And let's have none of this supposed pro-Tory tactical voting malarkey, LibDems have never been known to vote tactically for the Blues in their sweet little lives, quite the opposite in fact.
    Those in the party *cough* who are relying on Ashcroft's polls to save them at the forthcoming GE could be in for a nasty shock.
    Personally, I've more confidence in Stephen Fisher's model showing them losing over half their seats.

    The bell that tolls for the libdems is that the Greens got more than 400% of their vote with 4.2%, making comparisons with labours 2.2% in Westmoreland irrelevant.

    It is the loss of votes to the greens that will see their 2015 MPs fit into a peoplecarrier
    The Greens are irrelevant in almost all of the LibDem targets. Where were the Greens in the Cheadle constituency last night ?

    I'm afraid you too often allow your total disdain of the LibDems to cloud any reasoned analysis of their essential position which is dire in most seats but enjoying substantial strength in several dozen seats.

    In contrast Ukip enjoys broad support but with limited opportunities to convert to wins in a general election.

    Once again Jack W showing us his superior analytical skills.

    It is the absolute lack of understanding by many PBers of how FPTP works that I find so perplexing.
    I am sticking with my predictions of UKIP getting 12-15% of the vote and around 5 seats at the GE.

    I would be surprised with varying degrees of disappointment if Farage (sad) and Reckless (happy) were amongst those 5.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    Why is the Ladbrokes website crap - by far the worst of the major bookies

    Probably to discourage you and hope you will go away, they really do not like winners - even if they will use a big winner for publicity to attract other losers to their site.
  • Financier said:

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls

    Just 7% of public surprised to see England flag on someone's house. 28% feel patriotic, 28% indifferent, 24% proud.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B29MNmaIEAA7fDo.jpg

    As a small boy, I remember my maternal grandfather (he was a carpenter and joiner) had a flagpole in his front garden. There he flew the St George's Cross on April 23rd and the Union Jack on many other days.

    Nobody thought this was unusual (the same happened in most villages from the church towers) - shows how far we have come and not for the better mostly.
    I think anyone who has a flag pole like that might or might not be proud of their country but is a bit of a show- off. We all show- off in some way but to believe it is sad that not many people show off in this special way anymore (if they ever did en masse?) is not my opinion
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    chestnut said:

    surbiton said:

    Are people still daydreaming about Lib Dem's winning 40 odd seats ?

    That can only happen if ALL their votes are piled on those 40 seats. The cold numbers do not add up any more. They are more toxic than the Tories. Unfortunately, also irrelevant. The latter probably hurting them even more.

    Lib Dems by region and main challenger

    Scotland 11.. (Lab 6, Tory 4, SNP 1)
    NE 2 .............(Lab 1, Tory 1)
    NW 6............ (Tory 4, Lab 2)
    Y+H 3.......... (Lab 2, Tory 1)
    Wales 3........ (Lab 1, Tory 1, Plaid 1)
    West Mids 2...(Lab 1, Tory 1)
    East 4............ (Tory 3, Lab 1)
    London 7....... (Tory 4, Lab 3)
    SE 4............... (Tory 3, UKIP 1)
    SW 15............ (Tory 14, Lab 1)

    I
    SNP will gain more than 1 seat off the Lib Dems, thats almost a mortgage job.
  • Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    It's interesting. In many, many countries the act of having a flag on your house is quite unremarkable. USA, Canada, Netherlands (more than 50% in my boring street in the Hague - they're everywhere), etc. I think that England is simply normalising in this respect. Ordinary English are retaking ownership of the image from a distasteful minority of their own. This is a clear cultural shift that is beyond the control of politicians. We see Saltires in Scotland and think 'oh, a patriotic Scot' - and quite right. But see a St.George's Cross and we think what? We all need to update our cultural understanding. Especially lefties.

    I still think 'what a prat' when I drive in the USA and see American flags flying - I think they do exhibitionism to the nth degree there.
    Fair enough. But they don't see it that way. Which is the point. Here in NL where I live the flag is just part of being Dutch. It's a simple unremarkable source of pride in all things Orange. It has no party political or left/right significance. They're just happy to hang out their flag. No-one thinks or says anything about this. It's just part of the wallpaper of the Dutch nation. Pretty much the same in the USA (but with, admittedly, I suspect more southern / republican enthusiasm). I hope England becomes like the Dutch in this respect.
    Same goes in Norway. The Norwegian flag is all over the place and they even traditionally decorate their Christmas trees with it. No one (from Norway) would ever think it unusual.
    Same in Guernsey - many homes have flag poles, put to patriotic use on the 9th of May each year (Liberation day after occupation in WWII) and also on other national days as the occupants see fit.....

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    edited November 2014
    There are two times when seeing the England flag annoys me

    1) When it is mis-appropriated by the far right

    2) When I'm at a sporting event, and I'm sat behind someone with a flag the size of Kim Kardashian's arse and I can't see owt for the event I've paid around £100 to see.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    isam said:

    What Thornberry did was the equivalent of a UKIP politician tweeting a picture of Whitechapel High St on market day.. "Image of East London"...the inference would be there for all to see, and people on here who want to see UKIP fail would go batty



    Yep, yet I don't think either tweet should be a sacking or an apology offence. Politicians should be free to express their views. It's a bit sad that a politician can't be principled, opinionated, humorously controversial and a front-bencher all at the same time (although Boris would probably get away with it).

    Emily Thornbury clearly feels that a terraced house draped in flags is vulgar, crass and chavvy. And that's fine. If she thinks that then she should be free to tell people why because I suspect a lot of people would agree with it. Equally, if a UKIP politician thinks an image of multicultural Whitehall is an example of an England swamped with immigrants then that's fine - and probably something widely agreed with - too.

    Much of the public disdain towards mainstream politicians stems from the ridiculously pervasive political-correctness they all have to adhere to. By sacking Thornbury Miliband has probably made things worse.

    I suspect us real working class people aren't anywhere near as offended as the middle class, liberal intelligensia make out we are. But we are far more savvy than they will ever give us credit for,

  • Re flags, all over the place in Switzerland, especially on the allotments, it's not a proper allotment without a Swiss (or Portuguese) flag flying.
  • Financier said:

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls

    Just 7% of public surprised to see England flag on someone's house. 28% feel patriotic, 28% indifferent, 24% proud.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B29MNmaIEAA7fDo.jpg

    As a small boy, I remember my maternal grandfather (he was a carpenter and joiner) had a flagpole in his front garden. There he flew the St George's Cross on April 23rd and the Union Jack on many other days.

    Nobody thought this was unusual (the same happened in most villages from the church towers) - shows how far we have come and not for the better mostly.
    I think anyone who has a flag pole like that might or might not be proud of their country but is a bit of a show- off. We all show- off in some way but to believe it is sad that not many people show off in this special way anymore (if they ever did en masse?) is not my opinion

    It must be Leamington Spa, but you don't see many flags of any kind a-fluttering in people's gardens or hanging from their windows. But then I must be pretty unobservant because I don't see it anywhere much. A few if there is an England game, a few more during the World Cup - but nothing major.
  • Flags have their place -I like to see the Union Jack or the England flag flying on big ships , important Government buildings and Bucks Palace. Anywhere else and its a bit too much for me - For one thing it creates street clutter (if too many in one place), just like too many road signs
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited November 2014
    Swiss_Bob said:

    antifrank said:

    Swiss_Bob said:

    Anyone else think we might see a Labour defection to UKIP this weekend?

    Since Nigel Farage has repeatedly this morning said that we won't see a defection today or tomorrow, I'm thinking not.
    He said that, less than 48 hours before the traito...Reckless defected.
    My thinking is that a number of Labour MPs are looking at what happened to Thornberry and losing all hope.

    Better to be the first to go?
    Zero chance !

    There is a greater chance of a Labour MP resigning than defecting to UKIP. You lot simply don't understand how the left thinks.

    Having said that I do not consider Kate Hoey as from the left.
  • New Thread On the topic Labour wishes wasn't second in the news....
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    Financier said:

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls

    Just 7% of public surprised to see England flag on someone's house. 28% feel patriotic, 28% indifferent, 24% proud.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B29MNmaIEAA7fDo.jpg

    As a small boy, I remember my maternal grandfather (he was a carpenter and joiner) had a flagpole in his front garden. There he flew the St George's Cross on April 23rd and the Union Jack on many other days.

    Nobody thought this was unusual (the same happened in most villages from the church towers) - shows how far we have come and not for the better mostly.
    I think anyone who has a flag pole like that might or might not be proud of their country but is a bit of a show- off. We all show- off in some way but to believe it is sad that not many people show off in this special way anymore (if they ever did en masse?) is not my opinion
    You are judging the customs of yesterday by your personal views of today. Comments today shows just how much other countries celebrate their nationality, whilst there is and has been a genre in England that is happy to denigrate its nationality.
  • 'EdM's position would be so much stronger this morning if LAB had decided to make a fight of it. It had best candidate & could have won'

    That's like saying I could have won the Euro millions lottery if I picked the correct numbers. There's simply no chance whatsoever that Labour could have won that seat, UKIP or not.
  • Based on the latest polling averages - showing Lab 33%, Con 33%, LibDems 8% and Others 26% (incl UKIP on 15%) - Stephen Fisher's latest GE Seats prediction, with last week's figures in brackets is as follows:

    Con ............. 305 (+ 5 seats)
    Lan .............. 288 (- 4 seats)
    LibDem ......... 26 (- 2 seats)
    Others ........... 31 (+1 seat)

    Total ............650 seats

    Fans of Stephen Fisher may care to note that his model currently gives the Tories a 29% chance of achieving an overall majority, equivalent to conventional odds of 2.45/1.
    By comparison, Betfair have such an outcome on offer at 5.9 decimal, which equates to odds of 4.65/1, net of the exchange's 5% commission. This in turn equates to a probability of 17.7% .......... hmm!
    As ever, DYOR.
    Now is as good a time as any to plug my blog article I wrote a few weeks ago on the value bets for an overall majority:

    https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2014/11/04/could-the-conservatives-win-an-overall-majority-in-the-2015-general-election-next-year-part-2/
  • "Fitalass, Richard Nabavi, Flightpath, Scott P, Marquee Mark, Stark Dawning, Plato, TSE, can you hear me? TSE, I have a message for you in the middle of the election campaign. I have a message for you: Your boys took a hell of a beating! Your boys took a hell of a beating!"
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Others ........... 31 (+1 seat)

    His model is complete horseshit for modelling the SNP/UKIP I'm afraid.

    This in turn skews his probabilities for overall majorities upsides.



    I agree - deduct the 18 N.I. seats from the total and one's left with just 13 "Others" for Great Britain, to include SNP, Plaid, UKIP and Greens. It seems unlikely that the combined total for these parties will be fewer than say 16-20 seats and it might be ten or so seats greater, thereby nudging thirty seats.
    It's somewhat surprising that Fisher doesn't appear as yet to have at least tackled the recent resurgence of the SNP, even if he largely discounts the UKIP effect in terms of seats.

    I'm actually net green on Tory Majority for the overall - but not sure I want to add more.

    Very happy with my big Labour Maj red, though I think Ed's chances of becoming PM have been underestimated (As it is a proxy for Lab most seats) on Betfair. His main job for me though is to keep his job till the GE. So long as he can do that I'll be happy enough.
    I think you're safe enough in that regard - the only way Miliband's going pre-GE would be were he to choose to quit and that looks very unlikely.
    Last weekend I spotted Philip Hammond on offer to be "Next Prime Minister" with Betfair at 65 (aka 60.8/1 net) and I took the £7 available.
    Should Labour lose next May, this will look a cracking bet at way more than double the odds on offer from any bookie. It's finding the odd gem like this which makes Betfair worthwhile.
    On the Labour side of things Andy Burnham to be the Next PM (Henry G's confident pick as next Labour Leader) looks to be great value at 20/1 with Betfair's Sportsbook (i.e. fixed odds), again way more generous than the other bookies.
    DYOR.

  • Financier said:

    Financier said:

    Populus ‏@PopulusPolls

    Just 7% of public surprised to see England flag on someone's house. 28% feel patriotic, 28% indifferent, 24% proud.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B29MNmaIEAA7fDo.jpg

    As a small boy, I remember my maternal grandfather (he was a carpenter and joiner) had a flagpole in his front garden. There he flew the St George's Cross on April 23rd and the Union Jack on many other days.

    Nobody thought this was unusual (the same happened in most villages from the church towers) - shows how far we have come and not for the better mostly.
    I think anyone who has a flag pole like that might or might not be proud of their country but is a bit of a show- off. We all show- off in some way but to believe it is sad that not many people show off in this special way anymore (if they ever did en masse?) is not my opinion
    You are judging the customs of yesterday by your personal views of today. Comments today shows just how much other countries celebrate their nationality, whilst there is and has been a genre in England that is happy to denigrate its nationality.
    Ok do you fly a flag on your house ? and if not why not? C'mon its because you think its a bit naff don't you? Don't tell me you just cannot afford it ,they are a £1 in Poundland
  • If the Liberal Democrats struggled to retain some of their safest seats last time (Winchester, OWAB, Montgomeryshire and St. Ives) on the back of the Cleggasm, when most of us thought they'd make net gains in GE2010 and end up on c.75-80 seats, then I struggle to see how they'll do anything other than lose dozens next year, when their vote share is more than 2/3rds down.

    There are some encouraging results for them in places, but plenty of their local election results are poor, and the European election was a disaster for them.

    Casino - Fisher currently has them winning only 26 seats, the bookies think they'll hold a handful more. A couple of days ago, Patrick of this parish thought they'd struggle to finish with more than 10 seats. You pays your money ...... etc.
    LD optimists, *cough* believe the Ashcroft marginal polling showing only a 2% swing from their party to the Tories.
    Yes, it's incredible - in the truest meaning of the word. As in: it's not credible.

    If the Lib Dems do recover to 14-15% of the vote (not sure how, but let's assume swingback and the campaign are kind to them) they may hold on to a maximum of 35 seats. I don't know how 'low' they will go, but currently 'feel' (looking at the incumbents, seats, and local election results) that they probably have a floor of 20 seats or so.

    What I find unfathomable is the believe that, on a very low national vote share, you can pluck every single remaining Lib Dem vote from seats where they won't feature, and allocate them to all the seats they're hoping to defend and retain.

    It simply doesn't work like that IMHO. If they fall that much nationally, they will fall everywhere - including in seats they hold. Not all of their MPs votes are tactical, local and personal, I'm afraid.
  • I live in Salisbury South Wilts, a medieval town that still celebrates every St George’s day with a carnival and re-enactment in the town square; a few churches fly the flag every day and the St George shopping mall is bedecked with red and white bunting every weekend. – When the Mayor or the local military parade through town, (Salisbury plain is just up the road) there are flags draped across every street.

    Here, the English flag is not just for Christmas.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited November 2014
    .
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Roger said:

    Carlotta

    "R4 are spending as much, if not more, time on Thornberry as Rochester and Labour MP praising Ed for "decisive" sacking (after two conversations.....)"

    If Ed wanted to prove how out of touch he is with common sense this was the way to do it. Ask any Stretford Ender what they think of this thrice draped house and they'd say it looks f...ing ridiculous.

    What does Ed think he's defending? A Tracey Emin installation? He really can't deal with even simple things and I'm getting almost as certain as Jack that if he's not replaced Labour are likely to lose and they could lose badly.

    It was clear from the interview with John Mann on R4 that the message that they're trying to get across is that Ed acted quickly showing how strong and decisive he is. But to any fair-minded person it's absurd overreaction, which just makes him look even more ridiculous.
    As a few of us said last night - it seems obvious that Labour panicked.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Why is the Ladbrokes website crap - by far the worst of the major bookies

    Offer them your expertise, you'll make a mint.

    Oh, and my apologies to you, Fat Steve and all PBers at DDs tonight. I still feel a bit under the weather after my long bout of flu and pneumonia, so will be staying at home. Have fun though. ;)
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited November 2014
    Floater said:

    Roger said:

    Carlotta

    "R4 are spending as much, if not more, time on Thornberry as Rochester and Labour MP praising Ed for "decisive" sacking (after two conversations.....)"

    If Ed wanted to prove how out of touch he is with common sense this was the way to do it. Ask any Stretford Ender what they think of this thrice draped house and they'd say it looks f...ing ridiculous.

    What does Ed think he's defending? A Tracey Emin installation? He really can't deal with even simple things and I'm getting almost as certain as Jack that if he's not replaced Labour are likely to lose and they could lose badly.

    It was clear from the interview with John Mann on R4 that the message that they're trying to get across is that Ed acted quickly showing how strong and decisive he is. But to any fair-minded person it's absurd overreaction, which just makes him look even more ridiculous.
    As a few of us said last night - it seems obvious that Labour panicked.

    Quite right. Labour now have the worst of all worlds: they have drawn attention to the incident so that those who want to think the worst of it will do. At the same time and on mature reflection, Ed Miliband's overreaction seems all the more ridiculous.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    "LABOUR will lose 10 of its MPs next May because its working class backers are haemorrhaging to Ukip, an internal party study has revealed."

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6109809/Labour-to-lose-10-MPs-as-voters-back-Ukip-study-reveals.html

    Anyone know anything about this 'internal study'?

    I guess that could explain the panic.

    POEWAS
  • wumperwumper Posts: 35
    I'm afraid Smithson is so wrong, Labour could never win this seat as it's demographics were against them due to boundary changes. By elections can cost up to £100,000 and Labour just do not have the money to throw about.
    You will see their debt after the general election is over and comments like Smithsons is way over the top. He seems to have lost grip on reality
  • Also, who won the Rochester and Strood prediction competition? Think I was on 7 or 8%.

    While its up to OGH to declare the official result, it looks like N Simms:

    http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbrochester/results.php?b=0&i=1&s_Name=&s_Prty=4&o_lcl=predict_3026_Margin_10348
    Thank you.
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