Douglas Alexander on Sky news desperately trying to change the subject. Asked about Thornbury talked straight off about the health system. Almost 3 times the time given that to Rochester.
Labour, Useless totally utterly useless
Yes, but you thought that before she opened her silly little mouth, didn't you...
Which makes him right doesn't it?
And you're always right about everything, aren't you, Swiss Bob? BTW, are you coming to Dirty Dick's to-night?
So in the end a solid UKIP and Reckless win, but the fact the Tories kept their majority under 10% should discourage further defections. The Tory vote being more than double the Labour vote in a seat Labour held until 2010 and the LD vote falling behind the Greens on a dire 1% also make for a poor night for both Miliband and Clegg
Douglas Alexander on Sky news desperately trying to change the subject. Asked about Thornbury talked straight off about the health system. Almost 3 times the time given that to Rochester.
Labour, Useless totally utterly useless
Yes, but you thought that before she opened her silly little mouth, didn't you...
Which makes him right doesn't it?
And you're always right about everything, aren't you, Swiss Bob? BTW, are you coming to Dirty Dick's to-night?
Of course not, only mostly right, most of the time.
Would love to, it wouldn't be the first time I've flown a long way for a party but can't make it, will try at some point in the future.
Congratulations to 'hated' MP Mark Reckless for withstanding his 'punishment', kitchen sink and all. And well done to the Tories for losing but spinning it as a victory -good practice for the future.
Douglas Alexander on Sky news desperately trying to change the subject. Asked about Thornbury talked straight off about the health system. Almost 3 times the time given that to Rochester.
Labour, Useless totally utterly useless
Hague was coming across as equally useless. Still failing to grasp that the mood of the country is anti politics, because people perceive they are being failed by both parties. They're not going to flock back to Con, because they perceive that Con is no more for them than Lab are.
Nick Robinson: ""It is the most extraordinary self-inflicted wound I have seen an opposition party inflict on themselves in many, many years."
Really? I mean really? More than Dave riding a bike with a car following him behind? More than Ed making a speech, pretty much any speech but especially that idiotic effort at the Labour conference?
Sheesh...
Did it really only say "image from Rochester" or is there something more to this?
"Image from Rochester".
My take on it: it was her idea of a clever pun on "image".
I.e. Image = picture, and Image = impression of Rochester as nationalistic working class.
She doesn't add the word "image" normally. Why would you?
@DavidL asks why this is a more "extraordinary self-inflicted wound" than that of Dave's briefcase car or one of Ed's speeches. Many reasons. Firstly, it shows a lack of respect for voters. Secondly, it was made at a time when questions about english nationalism hang in the air - we've just had the Scotland vote, talk of an english parliament, debates about the EU and immigration. The entire by-election was being framed around these debates. Thirdly, it chimes with a growing feeling that Ed's team are all the same as the others - e.g. PPE Oxford, no real job etc. I could go on.
Based on the latest polling averages - showing Lab 33%, Con 33%, LibDems 8% and Others 26% (incl UKIP on 15%) - Stephen Fisher's latest GE Seats prediction, with last week's figures in brackets is as follows:
But the party's downward spiral into the top of the news cycle didn't begin with Emily Thornberry's tweet, ill-advised and crass though it was. It began when Ed Miliband's office kicked in. His team was hastily briefing journalists that they'd never seen Ed Miliband so angry, and that he had furiously given Thornberry a piece of his mind. But this wasn't enough of a message. It came to light that Thornberry's position was no longer tenable, and she resigned.
If the Liberal Democrats struggled to retain some of their safest seats last time (Winchester, OWAB, Montgomeryshire and St. Ives) on the back of the Cleggasm, when most of us thought they'd make net gains in GE2010 and end up on c.75-80 seats, then I struggle to see how they'll do anything other than lose dozens next year, when their vote share is more than 2/3rds down.
There are some encouraging results for them in places, but plenty of their local election results are poor, and the European election was a disaster for them.
I would be interested to hear both OGH and. Mark Seniors take on this LD debacle. In my view they could probably go down to a national poll share of 4% but still win 25-30 seats as they are so entrenched in certain areas. There will be some high profile LD casualties though."there have to be. Could King Vince be at risk?
Congratulations to 'hated' MP Mark Reckless for withstanding his 'punishment', kitchen sink and all. And well done to the Tories for losing but spinning it as a victory -good practice for the future.
Remember, how many times Michael Green said at the Tory conference plus many others that Reckless had "lied, lied, and lied". Rochester people could not be bothered. After all, he was a Tory ! What else can you expect of him ?
The thing is - the LibDems will remain entrenched in certain seats right up until the point at which they aren't. Yes they have a history of being as persistent as a dry stain inside the toilet bowl. But eventually the master has had enough and comes along with a bog brush and some Harpic - and they get flushed away.
I think we've moved into the bog brush and Harpic era of British politics. They've crossed their event horizon.
Wasn't the problem with the Thornberry tweet that it appears to (to me) be implying that she thought; look England flags, that means racists, that means UKIP v Tory. And that she thought that twitter would agree with her implication.
Surely any sensible person seeing the flags would have thought, football fan, flags out for international fixtures (us v jocks, no less), bit slow taking those down, 3-1!!!
I may be mistaken, but didn't Sweet Expectations sweet poll give precisely the same final result as the actual election? Excluding those outliers the LibDems.
I've put some money on UKIP winning Rochester & Strood in May at 5/4. Mark Reckless has a few more months to embed himself under a purple banner. Lord Ashcroft repeatedly tells us that opinion polls are snapshots not predictions, and far too many people are forgetting that.
But the party's downward spiral into the top of the news cycle didn't begin with Emily Thornberry's tweet, ill-advised and crass though it was. It began when Ed Miliband's office kicked in. His team was hastily briefing journalists that they'd never seen Ed Miliband so angry, and that he had furiously given Thornberry a piece of his mind. But this wasn't enough of a message. It came to light that Thornberry's position was no longer tenable, and she resigned.
R4 with Danny Alexander on John Mann 'Doncaster North Test' Labour will apply henceforth....
Well, at least the dear old Staggers has noticed that politics in the 21st century is about "culture", not economics. I say "culture" because I remain to be convinced that anything other than racism is at the bottom of it: we do not (yet) have cultural warfare over sexual morality. (Please God we never do, either.)
If my health were better, and my networks far, far larger than they are, I'd put up as a "London First" candidate in the 2016 Mayoral election. I moved to London as soon as I left university as much for cultural as for economic reasons, and now that I'm retired I doubt I could cope anywhere else.
Not bad at all for completely unscientific poll. Obviously in future they will have to weight for the sweet tooth of Green Party voters and shy Tories.
Douglas Alexander on Sky news desperately trying to change the subject. Asked about Thornbury talked straight off about the health system. Almost 3 times the time given that to Rochester.
Labour, Useless totally utterly useless
Hague was coming across as equally useless. Still failing to grasp that the mood of the country is anti politics, because people perceive they are being failed by both parties. They're not going to flock back to Con, because they perceive that Con is no more for them than Lab are.
So that's two safe Con seats gone kipper.
Tories, Useless totally utterly useless
We know ukip are agin most things and for very few things. A serious party tries to do things for the common good not always bitching from the sidelines.
Wasn't the problem with the Thornberry tweet that it appears to (to me) be implying that she thought; look England flags, that means racists, that means UKIP v Tory. And that she thought that twitter would agree with her implication.
Surely any sensible person seeing the flags would have thought, football fan, flags out for international fixtures (us v jocks, no less), bit slow taking those down, 3-1!!!
Based on the latest polling averages - showing Lab 33%, Con 33%, LibDems 8% and Others 26% (incl UKIP on 15%) - Stephen Fisher's latest GE Seats prediction, with last week's figures in brackets is as follows:
Fans of Stephen Fisher may care to note that his model currently gives the Tories a 29% chance of achieving an overall majority, equivalent to conventional odds of 2.45/1. By comparison, Betfair have such an outcome on offer at 5.9 decimal, which equates to odds of 4.65/1, net of the exchange's 5% commission. This in turn equates to a probability of 17.7% .......... hmm! As ever, DYOR.
Wasn't the problem with the Thornberry tweet that it appears to (to me) be implying that she thought; look England flags, that means racists, that means UKIP v Tory. And that she thought that twitter would agree with her implication.
Surely any sensible person seeing the flags would have thought, football fan, flags out for international fixtures (us v jocks, no less), bit slow taking those down, 3-1!!!
She was too stupid to even imagine the obvious.
Emily's was the thought process of someone who sees everything through the prism of politics, when there is perhaps an alternative reading in the real world.
But it is difficult to come to any reasonable interpretation of her tweet that wasn't sneering, condescending, metro-centric superiority writ large. Her real crime though seems to be her risible response when caught out. "Oooh, look, squirrels! A house covered in squirrels! I've never seen that before...!"
Until it was pointed out that in 2012 she had also tweeted an image of a house covered in squirrels....
F1: worth noting, McLaren are running a Prodromou-spec front wing which will (I think) not feature in the race but will be useful for gathering info for next season's car.
Wasn't the problem with the Thornberry tweet that it appears to (to me) be implying that she thought; look England flags, that means racists, that means UKIP v Tory. And that she thought that twitter would agree with her implication.
Surely any sensible person seeing the flags would have thought, football fan, flags out for international fixtures (us v jocks, no less), bit slow taking those down, 3-1!!!
She was too stupid to even imagine the obvious.
Really, it just shows how detached her life is from that her believed electorate and even worse she just does not walk around enough to see the obvious.
Also the same problem is experienced by many top management in both public and private sectors.
Nick Robinson: ""It is the most extraordinary self-inflicted wound I have seen an opposition party inflict on themselves in many, many years."
Really? I mean really? More than Dave riding a bike with a car following him behind? More than Ed making a speech, pretty much any speech but especially that idiotic effort at the Labour conference?
Sheesh...
Did it really only say "image from Rochester" or is there something more to this?
"Image from Rochester".
My take on it: it was her idea of a clever pun on "image".
I.e. Image = picture, and Image = impression of Rochester as nationalistic working class.
She doesn't add the word "image" normally. Why would you?
Maybe, just maybe she thought that a house with a white van outside it and St George's flags was just a cliché of "white van man". Maybe she was trying to say something about the area she was working (where was Ed by the way?) in. I don't know.
What I don't get is why this is a sneer, patronising etc etc. If it had been ignored one or two saddos on here or Guido might have mentioned it. 99.9% of the population, the vast majority of whom think Emily Thornberry is a cartoon character (edit actual name Eliza) who can speak to animals, would never have noticed.
Douglas Alexander on Sky news desperately trying to change the subject. Asked about Thornbury talked straight off about the health system. Almost 3 times the time given that to Rochester.
Labour, Useless totally utterly useless
Hague was coming across as equally useless. Still failing to grasp that the mood of the country is anti politics, because people perceive they are being failed by both parties. They're not going to flock back to Con, because they perceive that Con is no more for them than Lab are.
So that's two safe Con seats gone kipper.
Tories, Useless totally utterly useless
We know ukip are agin most things and for very few things. A serious party tries to do things for the common good not always bitching from the sidelines.
The electorate knows what it is against, but not what it is for - in the sense that people are far more passionate about what they oppose. Think about how many posts here denigrate or even outright abuse politicians the poster dislikes by comparison with the number that praise the ones s/he does.
Why should it be any other way? Hard-working people are seeing their standard of living going down and their job security disappearing, and the politicians are powerless to change it. No wonder that in even so high a profile by-election as yesterday's, only one in two voted.
We are seeing the end of capitalist democracy and the beginning of the re-feudalization process.
Wasn't the problem with the Thornberry tweet that it appears to (to me) be implying that she thought; look England flags, that means racists, that means UKIP v Tory. And that she thought that twitter would agree with her implication.
Surely any sensible person seeing the flags would have thought, football fan, flags out for international fixtures (us v jocks, no less), bit slow taking those down, 3-1!!!
She was too stupid to even imagine the obvious.
Probably only obvious to males.
Yes women never bother their pretty little heads about things like football.
But the party's downward spiral into the top of the news cycle didn't begin with Emily Thornberry's tweet, ill-advised and crass though it was. It began when Ed Miliband's office kicked in. His team was hastily briefing journalists that they'd never seen Ed Miliband so angry, and that he had furiously given Thornberry a piece of his mind. But this wasn't enough of a message. It came to light that Thornberry's position was no longer tenable, and she resigned.
R4 with Danny Alexander on John Mann 'Doncaster North Test' Labour will apply henceforth....
Well, at least the dear old Staggers has noticed that politics in the 21st century is about "culture", not economics. I say "culture" because I remain to be convinced that anything other than racism is at the bottom of it: we do not (yet) have cultural warfare over sexual morality. (Please God we never do, either.)
If my health were better, and my networks far, far larger than they are, I'd put up as a "London First" candidate in the 2016 Mayoral election. I moved to London as soon as I left university as much for cultural as for economic reasons, and now that I'm retired I doubt I could cope anywhere else.
Plenty of socially-liberal places outside London - you should cash in.
If the Liberal Democrats struggled to retain some of their safest seats last time (Winchester, OWAB, Montgomeryshire and St. Ives) on the back of the Cleggasm, when most of us thought they'd make net gains in GE2010 and end up on c.75-80 seats, then I struggle to see how they'll do anything other than lose dozens next year, when their vote share is more than 2/3rds down.
There are some encouraging results for them in places, but plenty of their local election results are poor, and the European election was a disaster for them.
Casino - Fisher currently has them winning only 26 seats, the bookies think they'll hold a handful more. A couple of days ago, Patrick of this parish thought they'd struggle to finish with more than 10 seats. You pays your money ...... etc. LD optimists, *cough* believe the Ashcroft marginal polling showing only a 2% swing from their party to the Tories.
IA Most of the ancestors of today's generation would have given their eye teeth to live in 21st century Britain and across the developing world millions are coming out of poverty everyday. particularly in Asia
For Labour and lefties the English flag used to represent the BNP / EDL / skinheads / racists / 'nasty'. The Kaufman view prevailed.
Now they say it represents the best instincts of Labour and must pretend to love it. They have, in effect, now made it verboten to diss our flag and white van man.
So we'll see alot more shame-free flag waving English patriotism. Englishness has become a clear source of pride for pretty much all English and not just the 'nasty' mob any longer.
Which is terminally dangerous for Labour and their clearly self-interested anti-England policy platform.
Ed Miliband has shown a marked lack of support to a senior colleague and ally feeling the heat. Whether or not that was justified, it will not inspire confidence in other senior colleagues that he will support them if the going gets tough in future.
Nick Robinson: ""It is the most extraordinary self-inflicted wound I have seen an opposition party inflict on themselves in many, many years."
Really? I mean really? More than Dave riding a bike with a car following him behind? More than Ed making a speech, pretty much any speech but especially that idiotic effort at the Labour conference?
Sheesh...
Did it really only say "image from Rochester" or is there something more to this?
"Image from Rochester".
My take on it: it was her idea of a clever pun on "image".
I.e. Image = picture, and Image = impression of Rochester as nationalistic working class.
She doesn't add the word "image" normally. Why would you?
Maybe, just maybe she thought that a house with a white van outside it and St George's flags was just a cliché of "white van man". Maybe she was trying to say something about the area she was working (where was Ed by the way?) in. I don't know.
What I don't get is why this is a sneer, patronising etc etc. If it had been ignored one or two saddos on here or Guido might have mentioned it. 99.9% of the population, the vast majority of whom think Emily Thornberry is a cartoon character (edit actual name Eliza) who can speak to animals, would never have noticed.
Well, first, the tweet has outraged CiF which usually knows a thing or two about nuances and inferences.
Secondly, the bigger issue is that once more Ed is hamstrung about how the whole issue "will play".
He is terrified that by not sacking her the whole out of touch metropolitan liberal elite charge will be levelled at him (he is right) and by sacking her he will be charged with being scared so witless that Lab might be portrayed as an out of touch metropolitan liberal elite that he had to sack her (he is right).
In either case, it shows that 1) Labour consists of the out of touch metropolitan liberal elite; and 2) the fear of this being exposed is effectively preventing Ed from making any kind of coherent thoughtful decisions about anything.
Fair night for UKIP (they will have trouble holding it in May) , goodish night for the Tories , neutral for Labour and I suppose the lib dems are used to this sort of thing now!!
Terrible day/night for politicians being able to express their true feelings with the Thornburry faux outrage and resignation or sacking. Look why cannot a politician have a point of view that is not that everyone is wonderful and fluffy? Why cannot a politican sneer or be snobby at something she finds not to her liking? If enough people do not agree with her she will be voted out . Why do we want our modern politicians to be robots that only say nice fluffy things about people ?
"Emily Thornberry broke a golden rule in politics: Voters can be rude to politicians but politicians can never be rude to voters."
GE2015 is going to be a dirty campaign – The arrogant, £2mil mansion dwelling Thornberry, sneering at how the WWC live, is how Ed wishes to portray the Blue team – she had to go.
Nick Robinson: ""It is the most extraordinary self-inflicted wound I have seen an opposition party inflict on themselves in many, many years."
Really? I mean really? More than Dave riding a bike with a car following him behind? More than Ed making a speech, pretty much any speech but especially that idiotic effort at the Labour conference?
Sheesh...
Did it really only say "image from Rochester" or is there something more to this?
"Image from Rochester".
My take on it: it was her idea of a clever pun on "image".
I.e. Image = picture, and Image = impression of Rochester as nationalistic working class.
She doesn't add the word "image" normally. Why would you?
What I don't get is why this is a sneer, patronising etc etc. If it had been ignored one or two saddos on here or Guido might have mentioned it. 99.9% of the population, the vast majority of whom think Emily Thornberry is a cartoon character (edit actual name Eliza) who can speak to animals, would never have noticed.
I think Ed was panicked by the Sun front page.....he wouldn't want people to think Labour was led by out of touch multimillionaires living in posh North London married to expensive lawyers, would he?
Can't stand Thornberry, other than Burnham I can't think of a politician more odious. However her initial comment on people who drape these flags all over their property isn't that uncommon, across any social status. I am a WWC guy and I have some sympathy with her sentiments and I would be far from alone in that view.
She made a complete dog's breakfast of damage limitation, which demonstrates her limitations but to be dumped for that is completely unfair.
But the party's downward spiral into the top of the news cycle didn't begin with Emily Thornberry's tweet, ill-advised and crass though it was. It began when Ed Miliband's office kicked in. His team was hastily briefing journalists that they'd never seen Ed Miliband so angry, and that he had furiously given Thornberry a piece of his mind. But this wasn't enough of a message. It came to light that Thornberry's position was no longer tenable, and she resigned.
R4 with Danny Alexander on John Mann 'Doncaster North Test' Labour will apply henceforth....
Well, at least the dear old Staggers has noticed that politics in the 21st century is about "culture", not economics. I say "culture" because I remain to be convinced that anything other than racism is at the bottom of it: we do not (yet) have cultural warfare over sexual morality. (Please God we never do, either.)
If my health were better, and my networks far, far larger than they are, I'd put up as a "London First" candidate in the 2016 Mayoral election. I moved to London as soon as I left university as much for cultural as for economic reasons, and now that I'm retired I doubt I could cope anywhere else.
Plenty of socially-liberal places outside London - you should cash in.
If only. I'm a tenant. Also an epileptic, so no driving licence.
Ed Miliband has shown a marked lack of support to a senior colleague and ally feeling the heat. Whether or not that was justified, it will not inspire confidence in other senior colleagues that he will support them if the going gets tough in future.
She'll be back on the front bench if Labour get into government, I'd imagine.
This by election has given us a cracking outcome - Emily Thornberry's gone.
She wasn't one I had particular feelings about either way.... until yesterday.
Loathe her now.
I didn't/don't know her from Eve. I suspect she's an ordinary person, but a bad politician. End of, for me.
I've seen her twice recently, once on the Daily Politics. She's a gobshite, made me change channels in seconds.
Noted.
You can probably find the interviews on iPlayer or YouTube so you can check for yourself. Google "Andrew Neil Emily Thornberry" and check out the videos.
Ed Miliband has shown a marked lack of support to a senior colleague and ally feeling the heat. Whether or not that was justified, it will not inspire confidence in other senior colleagues that he will support them if the going gets tough in future.
I agree - I didn't like Thornberry - she came across on the DP as condescending - but the punishment is out of all proportion to the offence - and has compounded it - had he given her a ticking off (for what exactly? Being a multimillionaire north London resident married to an expensive lawyer?) the story would have died - as it is his sacking of her has kept it in the headlines
Ed Miliband has shown a marked lack of support to a senior colleague and ally feeling the heat. Whether or not that was justified, it will not inspire confidence in other senior colleagues that he will support them if the going gets tough in future.
She'll be back on the front bench if Labour get into government, I'd imagine.
I am pretty sure of that. Whether the Tweet would have got viral without Ed's intervention is another matter.
Can't stand Thornberry, other than Burnham I can't think of a politician more odious. However her initial comment on people who drape these flags all over their property isn't that uncommon, across any social status. I am a WWC guy and I have some sympathy with her sentiments and I would be far from alone in that view.
She made a complete dog's breakfast of damage limitation, which demonstrates her limitations but to be dumped for that is completely unfair.
Exactly , most people would probably pass an house adorned in England Flags and think 'what a prat' even if only to sneer at their exhibitionism and not their patriotism . I know I do- Very few people do put flags out (that's why its noticeable) and those that do tend not to be pleasant well balanced sorts imho. Do I have to resign from posting here now?
Nick Robinson: ""It is the most extraordinary self-inflicted wound I have seen an opposition party inflict on themselves in many, many years."
Really? I mean really? More than Dave riding a bike with a car following him behind? More than Ed making a speech, pretty much any speech but especially that idiotic effort at the Labour conference?
Sheesh...
Did it really only say "image from Rochester" or is there something more to this?
"Image from Rochester".
My take on it: it was her idea of a clever pun on "image".
I.e. Image = picture, and Image = impression of Rochester as nationalistic working class.
She doesn't add the word "image" normally. Why would you?
What I don't get is why this is a sneer, patronising etc etc. If it had been ignored one or two saddos on here or Guido might have mentioned it. 99.9% of the population, the vast majority of whom think Emily Thornberry is a cartoon character (edit actual name Eliza) who can speak to animals, would never have noticed.
I think Ed was panicked by the Sun front page.....he wouldn't want people to think Labour was led by out of touch multimillionaires living in posh North London married to expensive lawyers, would he?
Some of us lawyers are quite cheap you know! But I certainly agree that Ed panicked and I also agree with the sentiment of antifrank's comments. He is certainly not a man you would want in the trenches with you.
He has very few allies or supporters on the Labour benches. He will have even fewer after this.
If the Liberal Democrats struggled to retain some of their safest seats last time (Winchester, OWAB, Montgomeryshire and St. Ives) on the back of the Cleggasm, when most of us thought they'd make net gains in GE2010 and end up on c.75-80 seats, then I struggle to see how they'll do anything other than lose dozens next year, when their vote share is more than 2/3rds down.
There are some encouraging results for them in places, but plenty of their local election results are poor, and the European election was a disaster for them.
Casino - Fisher currently has them winning only 26 seats, the bookies think they'll hold a handful more. A couple of days ago, Patrick of this parish thought they'd struggle to finish with more than 10 seats. You pays your money ...... etc. LD optimists, *cough* believe the Ashcroft marginal polling showing only a 2% swing from their party to the Tories.
Is that the same Ashcroft whose polls consistently underestimate the Tory vote? If so the LDs are in big trouble
I have a real problem with the way Thornbury has been treated.
There were a whole host of ways her posting that picture could have been interpreted and the one that was chosen to destroy her was by no means the most obvious. She of course made a bit of a mess of the rebuttal but I think she can justifiably feel hard done by this morning.
Its all politics of course but that doesn't make it right.
Yes, there was more than a touch of mob rule about it.
Of course 'it's politics', she should have known better and it was open to Ed & Labour to make a principled stand if they chose to, but it still had the smell of the baying mob.
His model is complete horseshit for modelling the SNP/UKIP I'm afraid.
This in turn skews his probabilities for overall majorities upsides.
I agree - deduct the 18 N.I. seats from the total and one's left with just 13 "Others" for Great Britain, to include SNP, Plaid, UKIP and Greens. It seems unlikely that the combined total for these parties will be fewer than say 16-20 seats and it might be ten or so seats greater, thereby nudging thirty seats. It's somewhat surprising that Fisher doesn't appear as yet to have at least tackled the recent resurgence of the SNP, even if he largely discounts the UKIP effect in terms of seats.
Ed Miliband has shown a marked lack of support to a senior colleague and ally feeling the heat. Whether or not that was justified, it will not inspire confidence in other senior colleagues that he will support them if the going gets tough in future.
She'll be back on the front bench if Labour get into government, I'd imagine.
Thornberry's late father went to Cambridge, became a professor of War Studies, was a consultant to Nato, held positions with UN. The working class girl from a council house story is interesting spin.
I have a real problem with the way Thornbury has been treated.
There were a whole host of ways her posting that picture could have been interpreted and the one that was chosen to destroy her was by no means the most obvious. She of course made a bit of a mess of the rebuttal but I think she can justifiably feel hard done by this morning.
Its all politics of course but that doesn't make it right.
Yes, there was more than a touch of mob rule about it.
Of course 'it's politics', she should have known better and it was open to Ed & Labour to make a principled stand if they chose to, but it still had the smell of the baying mob.
I agree on the 'mob rule' but the problem for Labour and the left is that so often they ARE the mob.
Not bad at all for completely unscientific poll. Obviously in future they will have to weight for the sweet tooth of Green Party voters and shy Tories.
Apparently, Rotten, it was a vegetarian sweet shop (whatever that might mean) so the Green bias was predictable - but yes, a Sweet Success for the shop owner.
A staggeringly bad result for the LibDems with just 349, THREE HUNDRED AND FORTY NINE VOTES ! And let's have none of this supposed pro-Tory tactical voting malarkey, LibDems have never been known to vote tactically for the Blues in their sweet little lives, quite the opposite in fact. Those in the party *cough* who are relying on Ashcroft's polls to save them at the forthcoming GE could be in for a nasty shock. Personally, I've more confidence in Stephen Fisher's model showing them losing over half their seats.
The bell that tolls for the libdems is that the Greens got more than 400% of their vote with 4.2%, making comparisons with labours 2.2% in Westmoreland irrelevant.
It is the loss of votes to the greens that will see their 2015 MPs fit into a peoplecarrier
The Greens are irrelevant in almost all of the LibDem targets. Where were the Greens in the Cheadle constituency last night ?
I'm afraid you too often allow your total disdain of the LibDems to cloud any reasoned analysis of their essential position which is dire in most seats but enjoying substantial strength in several dozen seats.
In contrast Ukip enjoys broad support but with limited opportunities to convert to wins in a general election.
Once again Jack W showing us his superior analytical skills.
It is the absolute lack of understanding by many PBers of how FPTP works that I find so perplexing.
It's interesting. In many, many countries the act of having a flag on your house is quite unremarkable. USA, Canada, Netherlands (more than 50% in my boring street in the Hague - they're everywhere), etc. I think that England is simply normalising in this respect. Ordinary English are retaking ownership of the image from a distasteful minority of their own. This is a clear cultural shift that is beyond the control of politicians. We see Saltires in Scotland and think 'oh, a patriotic Scot' - and quite right. But see a St.George's Cross and we think what? We all need to update our cultural understanding. Especially lefties.
I have a real problem with the way Thornbury has been treated.
There were a whole host of ways her posting that picture could have been interpreted and the one that was chosen to destroy her was by no means the most obvious. She of course made a bit of a mess of the rebuttal but I think she can justifiably feel hard done by this morning.
Its all politics of course but that doesn't make it right.
Yes, there was more than a touch of mob rule about it.
Of course 'it's politics', she should have known better and it was open to Ed & Labour to make a principled stand if they chose to, but it still had the smell of the baying mob.
I don't know why, but I can visualize a cartoon with her and ratty slumped down and sharing a fag. Sorry.
Labor, too, has something to fear from UKIP.Many of Labor’s traditional working-class voters are lining up behind UKIP’s message at a time of stagnant wages and diminished opportunities for those without university degrees.
“All our industry is gone, and it’s making way for homes for people coming from outside the country,” said Eugene Austin, a 64-year-old who spent decades working in auto factories until he was laid off four years ago. “It’s terrible.”
Austin said he used to be an enthusiastic Labor voter. But this week, he drove for over two hours from his home in the British Midlands to Rochester in order to proudly wear the purple and gold of UKIP on his lapel.
Are people still daydreaming about Lib Dem's winning 40 odd seats ?
That can only happen if ALL their votes are piled on those 40 seats. The cold numbers do not add up any more. They are more toxic than the Tories. Unfortunately, also irrelevant. The latter probably hurting them even more.
His model is complete horseshit for modelling the SNP/UKIP I'm afraid.
This in turn skews his probabilities for overall majorities upsides.
I agree - deduct the 18 N.I. seats from the total and one's left with just 13 "Others" for Great Britain, to include SNP, Plaid, UKIP and Greens. It seems unlikely that the combined total for these parties will be fewer than say 16-20 seats and it might be ten or so seats greater, thereby nudging thirty seats. It's somewhat surprising that Fisher doesn't appear as yet to have at least tackled the recent resurgence of the SNP, even if he largely discounts the UKIP effect in terms of seats.
I'm actually net green on Tory Majority for the overall - but not sure I want to add more.
Very happy with my big Labour Maj red, though I think Ed's chances of becoming PM have been underestimated (As it is a proxy for Lab most seats) on Betfair. His main job for me though is to keep his job till the GE. So long as he can do that I'll be happy enough.
Interesting bits from Wiki on Emily T (Lady Nugee).
"She also part-owns properties in Guildford and South London.
In April 2005 it emerged that Thornberry had sent her son to the selective Dame Alice Owen's School fourteen miles away from her home and outside her constituency. The school was formerly based in Islington and still reserves ten percent of its places for Islington pupils. The Labour Party opposes selection and Thornberry was widely criticised over the issue as a result. Chris Woodhead, the former chief inspector of schools stated "I celebrate her good sense as a parent and deplore her hypocrisy as a politician. When will those who espouse the virtues of comprehensive education apply the logic of their political message to their children?"
The controversy had strong echoes of the cases of Harriet Harman, Tony Blair and Diane Abbott.[56] Thornberry's daughter now also attends the school. She defended her position by stating she felt the school should not have moved from its original location."
The problem with her tweet was, that having recognised the (to her) unusual residence, she did not take the opportunity to speak to the residents or just noted it to investigate later. Instead she thoughtlessly tweeted.
It's interesting. In many, many countries the act of having a flag on your house is quite unremarkable. USA, Canada, Netherlands (more than 50% in my boring street in the Hague - they're everywhere), etc. I think that England is simply normalising in this respect. Ordinary English are retaking ownership of the image from a distasteful minority of their own. This is a clear cultural shift that is beyond the control of politicians. We see Saltires in Scotland and think 'oh, a patriotic Scot' - and quite right. But see a St.George's Cross and we think what? We all need to update our cultural understanding. Especially lefties.
I still think 'what a prat' when I drive in the USA and see American flags flying - I think they do exhibitionism to the nth degree there.
What Thornberry did was the equivalent of a UKIP politician tweeting a picture of Whitechapel High St on market day.. "Image of East London"...the inference would be there for all to see, and people on here who want to see UKIP fail would go batty
It's interesting. In many, many countries the act of having a flag on your house is quite unremarkable. USA, Canada, Netherlands (more than 50% in my boring street in the Hague - they're everywhere), etc. I think that England is simply normalising in this respect. Ordinary English are retaking ownership of the image from a distasteful minority of their own. This is a clear cultural shift that is beyond the control of politicians. We see Saltires in Scotland and think 'oh, a patriotic Scot' - and quite right. But see a St.George's Cross and we think what? We all need to update our cultural understanding. Especially lefties.
When I was filling out my UCCA form, all those years ago, I put down "English" as my nationality and was called into the Headmaster's study for a b*llocking. Apparently I was "British". So any suggestion that I should think of myself as English only brings up that memory & an associated feeling of shame.
Thornberry's late father went to Cambridge, became a professor of War Studies, was a consultant to Nato, held positions with UN. The working class girl from a council house story is interesting spin.
Her parents divorced when she was seven and she lived with her mother, but clearly Labour does not want north London multi millionaires with posh houses married to expensive lawyers anywhere near the top of the party.....
Reading her record (opposition to 90 days then 42 days detention and no howlers in the expenses) there's clearly more to her than her grating DP performance.
Populus @PopulusPolls · 3m3 minutes ago Just 7% of public surprised to see England flag on someone's house. 28% feel patriotic, 28% indifferent, 24% proud.
Comments
2014 Labour MP tweets silly sneering tweet - forced to resign, walks off.
2014 Tory posts photos of unruly member for Braintree, doesn't resign immediately, heads for exit marked 'help'.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-30129645
http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbrochester/results.php?b=0&i=1&s_Name=&s_Prty=4&o_lcl=predict_3026_Margin_10348
Would love to, it wouldn't be the first time I've flown a long way for a party but can't make it, will try at some point in the future.
So that's two safe Con seats gone kipper.
Tories, Useless totally utterly useless
Con ............. 305 (+ 5 seats)
Lan .............. 288 (- 4 seats)
LibDem ......... 26 (- 2 seats)
Others ........... 31 (+1 seat)
Total ............650 seats
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/11/how-labour-lost-ukip-versus-tory-election
R4 with Danny Alexander on John Mann 'Doncaster North Test' Labour will apply henceforth....
Then, Cleggie, the Tory Liberal, would have met his David Owen moment !
There are some encouraging results for them in places, but plenty of their local election results are poor, and the European election was a disaster for them.
In my view they could probably go down to a national poll share of 4% but still win 25-30 seats as they are so entrenched in certain areas.
There will be some high profile LD casualties though."there have to be.
Could King Vince be at risk?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/11/20/how-this-seemingly-innocuous-tweet-forced-a-british-mp-to-resign/
Please confirm when you return!
Ta muchly
I think we've moved into the bog brush and Harpic era of British politics. They've crossed their event horizon.
Surely any sensible person seeing the flags would have thought, football fan, flags out for international fixtures (us v jocks, no less), bit slow taking those down, 3-1!!!
She was too stupid to even imagine the obvious.
Near enough my predicted win of 6.6% for UKIP. When are the results published?
If my health were better, and my networks far, far larger than they are, I'd put up as a "London First" candidate in the 2016 Mayoral election. I moved to London as soon as I left university as much for cultural as for economic reasons, and now that I'm retired I doubt I could cope anywhere else.
UKIP: 44%
Tory: 31%
Lab: 14%
Green: 7%
LibDem: 2%
Not bad at all for completely unscientific poll. Obviously in future they will have to weight for the sweet tooth of Green Party voters and shy Tories.
I suppose the tories can spin this as being closer than expected.
The Lib Dems had another shocker
Labour, well - the Tories must love how Labour shot themselves in the foot over this one.
By comparison, Betfair have such an outcome on offer at 5.9 decimal, which equates to odds of 4.65/1, net of the exchange's 5% commission. This in turn equates to a probability of 17.7% .......... hmm!
As ever, DYOR.
But it is difficult to come to any reasonable interpretation of her tweet that wasn't sneering, condescending, metro-centric superiority writ large. Her real crime though seems to be her risible response when caught out. "Oooh, look, squirrels! A house covered in squirrels! I've never seen that before...!"
Until it was pointed out that in 2012 she had also tweeted an image of a house covered in squirrels....
Also the same problem is experienced by many top management in both public and private sectors.
http://news.sky.com/story/1377174/uncomfortable-coalitions-or-chaos-ahead
What I don't get is why this is a sneer, patronising etc etc. If it had been ignored one or two saddos on here or Guido might have mentioned it. 99.9% of the population, the vast majority of whom think Emily Thornberry is a cartoon character (edit actual name Eliza) who can speak to animals, would never have noticed.
Loathe her now.
Why should it be any other way? Hard-working people are seeing their standard of living going down and their job security disappearing, and the politicians are powerless to change it. No wonder that in even so high a profile by-election as yesterday's, only one in two voted.
We are seeing the end of capitalist democracy and the beginning of the re-feudalization process.
"Emily Thornberry broke a golden rule in politics: Voters can be rude to politicians but politicians can never be rude to voters."
LD optimists, *cough* believe the Ashcroft marginal polling showing only a 2% swing from their party to the Tories.
His model is complete horseshit for modelling the SNP/UKIP I'm afraid.
This in turn skews his probabilities for overall majorities upsides.
Now they say it represents the best instincts of Labour and must pretend to love it. They have, in effect, now made it verboten to diss our flag and white van man.
So we'll see alot more shame-free flag waving English patriotism. Englishness has become a clear source of pride for pretty much all English and not just the 'nasty' mob any longer.
Which is terminally dangerous for Labour and their clearly self-interested anti-England policy platform.
A spectacular own-goal indeed.
I predict this will lead to many twesignations, some twackings, and a few more twackings sold as twesignations, before the election.
Ed Miliband has shown a marked lack of support to a senior colleague and ally feeling the heat. Whether or not that was justified, it will not inspire confidence in other senior colleagues that he will support them if the going gets tough in future.
Secondly, the bigger issue is that once more Ed is hamstrung about how the whole issue "will play".
He is terrified that by not sacking her the whole out of touch metropolitan liberal elite charge will be levelled at him (he is right) and by sacking her he will be charged with being scared so witless that Lab might be portrayed as an out of touch metropolitan liberal elite that he had to sack her (he is right).
In either case, it shows that 1) Labour consists of the out of touch metropolitan liberal elite; and 2) the fear of this being exposed is effectively preventing Ed from making any kind of coherent thoughtful decisions about anything.
Terrible day/night for politicians being able to express their true feelings with the Thornburry faux outrage and resignation or sacking. Look why cannot a politician have a point of view that is not that everyone is wonderful and fluffy? Why cannot a politican sneer or be snobby at something she finds not to her liking? If enough people do not agree with her she will be voted out . Why do we want our modern politicians to be robots that only say nice fluffy things about people ?
http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbrochester/results.php?b=0&i=1&s_Name=&s_Prty=4&o_lcl=predict_3026_Margin_10348
She made a complete dog's breakfast of damage limitation, which demonstrates her limitations but to be dumped for that is completely unfair.
Can report to @Roger that there were few signs of St George's flags waving about near Stretford today.
Google "Andrew Neil Emily Thornberry" and check out the videos.
William Hill http://goo.gl/jBN1WA 2/1
Ladbrokes http://bit.ly/c5gpH6 4/6
He has very few allies or supporters on the Labour benches. He will have even fewer after this.
If so the LDs are in big trouble
Of course 'it's politics', she should have known better and it was open to Ed & Labour to make a principled stand if they chose to, but it still had the smell of the baying mob.
It's somewhat surprising that Fisher doesn't appear as yet to have at least tackled the recent resurgence of the SNP, even if he largely discounts the UKIP effect in terms of seats.
My initial observation: was confirmed by her subsequent reaction that read more like she'd been out on a visit to the local zoo than out campaigning.
I also noted this was potentially good news for my Rother Valley bet, and Labour MPs with a decent UKIP presence in their local constituency did too.
No wonder Ed was furious, he doesn't want to pump resources into holding Doncaster North !
It is the absolute lack of understanding by many PBers of how FPTP works that I find so perplexing.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/britains-uk-independence-party-expected-to-win-crucial-vote-before-general-election/2014/11/19/8a4bd826-6ff8-11e4-a2c2-478179fd0489_story.html
That can only happen if ALL their votes are piled on those 40 seats. The cold numbers do not add up any more. They are more toxic than the Tories. Unfortunately, also irrelevant. The latter probably hurting them even more.
Interesting his introducers were Douglas Carswell and Philip Hollobone.
Very happy with my big Labour Maj red, though I think Ed's chances of becoming PM have been underestimated (As it is a proxy for Lab most seats) on Betfair. His main job for me though is to keep his job till the GE. So long as he can do that I'll be happy enough.
"She also part-owns properties in Guildford and South London.
In April 2005 it emerged that Thornberry had sent her son to the selective Dame Alice Owen's School fourteen miles away from her home and outside her constituency. The school was formerly based in Islington and still reserves ten percent of its places for Islington pupils. The Labour Party opposes selection and Thornberry was widely criticised over the issue as a result. Chris Woodhead, the former chief inspector of schools stated "I celebrate her good sense as a parent and deplore her hypocrisy as a politician. When will those who espouse the virtues of comprehensive education apply the logic of their political message to their children?"
The controversy had strong echoes of the cases of Harriet Harman, Tony Blair and Diane Abbott.[56] Thornberry's daughter now also attends the school. She defended her position by stating she felt the school should not have moved from its original location."
The problem with her tweet was, that having recognised the (to her) unusual residence, she did not take the opportunity to speak to the residents or just noted it to investigate later. Instead she thoughtlessly tweeted.
If she'd done that the whole Labour front bench would've defended her,
I wonder if a Headmaster would do that to-day.
Just 7% of public surprised to see England flag on someone's house. 28% feel patriotic, 28% indifferent, 24% proud.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B29MNmaIEAA7fDo.jpg
Pile as much as you can on the Tories here at that price.
Reading her record (opposition to 90 days then 42 days detention and no howlers in the expenses) there's clearly more to her than her grating DP performance.
Populus @PopulusPolls · 3m3 minutes ago
Just 7% of public surprised to see England flag on someone's house. 28% feel patriotic, 28% indifferent, 24% proud.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B29MNmaIEAA7fDo.jpg