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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mark Reckless wins Rochester for UKIP with a majority of 7.
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mark Reckless wins Rochester for UKIP with a majority of 7.2%
In the end the Rochester result was a lot closer than any of the final polls had suggested but the first stage Mark Reckless’s massive gamble has paid off – he’s back again as MP for Rochester.
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Will it encourage more defectors? No
Is Reckless going to be able to retain the seat next May? No
Will the less than emphatic winning margin act as a deterrent to other potential defectors? No (i.e. they will defect anyway if they want to, and won't be put off by the fact that it's only 2,920 instead of 7,000)
Amazing for Labour to have handed Cameron an excellent reprieve with the Thornberry sacking - she summed up exactly the basic thinking of the north London Labour mentality - that's why Ed was so furious.
I'm sticking to my '10 or less' prognosis.
Ed was so angry with Emily that he sacked her. I've never seen him so angry. A tweet is damaging, but so too is deleting files in Rotherham. Ed has an odd moral compass.
Might be easier to hold than other by elections.
Thornbury running second on R4 to Rochester and taking up more time.....
"The Conservatives threw everything at this campaign - quite literally the kitchen sink".
Tories need to defend 50 seats and aim to gain 40.
That's quite a spread, even for all that hedge fund dough.
The story of the night is the Emily Thornberry sacking /resignation. The zeitgeist has moved in a totally unpredictable direction. It's beyond even political correctness. It's BIG BROTHER and it portends something very ugly.
A man draped three huge flags over his house saying 'Look at me'. A politician looked tweeted and had to resign. Free thinking has gone down the toilet. It's unpredictable where this Orwellian movement is taking us and what it's political ramifications might be but I suspect it's going to have a much bigger impact than UKIP
The Conservatives fell 28% in Clacton but 14% here.
I think the 7.2% winning margin will probably deter any other defections from the Conservatives at least until the spring.
Given a day or two I suspect the heat will be back on Ed Miliband. I can't believe the stupid timing of the Thornberry sacking.
I find that very very interesting.
As for losing the seat in May. Will Labour poll better or worse in May? I can't see Labour voters lending their votes to the Tories in May.
What you, lefties in general and Labour in particular seem unable to process is the fact that very large numbers of ordinary people are proudly patriotic. There are way more people with St George flags outside than you will ever see in your metrosexual ad-agency urban bubble. Are they all saying 'me, me, me'? OK - so you hate England and the idea of Englishness. You'll even fight the notion that this can even be debated in parliament (witness yesterday's utterly shameful Miliband nonsense). But to say that ordinary folk who simply want to be able to wave their own damn country's flag without being sneered at is 'Orwellian'? Up yer bum with knobs on!
Big question for the Conservatives: who do they select as their candidate? Do they stick with the choice of the open primary, Kelly Tolhurst, who failed in the by-election, or do they choose someone else?
With less than six months to go until the general election they need to make this choice soon, because the campaign for the general election campaign has already begun.
For all the Tories clutching onto the Ashcroft poll and the margin of victory of a mere 2,900 votes, you appear to be missing the big picture. Three months ago the prospects for UKIP of winning in Rochester and Strood were slim. Perhaps @isam will know what the betting odds were at the time, but I don't recall it being talked up as one of the top UKIP prospects in the way that Thanet South and Great Grimsby were. UKIP now have a great chance of holding onto this seat. That's good progress for three month's work.
And what do we get at the end? "ukip will win by a gazillion votes" brief off the record Tories" so any win for them is actually a defeat. But it isn't a defeat is it? Reckless won a majority that a lot of Tories would kill for, and that's despite the Tories bombing Rochester voters with every message you can think of for a prolonged campaign.
Don't worry though. They'll all come home! Next time.....
UKIP's record of holding onto what they win is poor. I personally don't see Reckless breaking that trend unless UKIP are polling better by the GE than they are now. The reverse still seems the most likely to me.
Am I the only one completely bemused by Emily Thornberry? What on earth has she done wrong? People are so quick to try and find offence these days. I am so glad I have not wasted my time by getting seriously involved in politics.
A rash prediction: the result will give UKIP a bounce, but not a lasting one. We'll be back where we were in a couple of weeks.
The sheer nastiness of the campaign, and of the overreaction to Emily Thornberrys tweet, does not bode well for next years election.
Campaigning won't begin in earnest until February which is when the public will wake up from the winter hibernation and begin to think politics again, albeit reluctantly in most cases.
I see the Tories held their seat in Stockport. Looks like majority over LD’s slightly down.
"R4 are spending as much, if not more, time on Thornberry as Rochester and Labour MP praising Ed for "decisive" sacking (after two conversations.....)"
If Ed wanted to prove how out of touch he is with common sense this was the way to do it. Ask any Stretford Ender what they think of this thrice draped house and they'd say it looks f...ing ridiculous.
What does Ed think he's defending? A Tracey Emin installation? He really can't deal with even simple things and I'm getting almost as certain as Jack that if he's not replaced Labour are likely to lose and they could lose badly.
Reckless will be out in May.
Labour were appallingly Anti English in yesterdays Commons debate..
If the Labour Candidate was so good, why didn't Ed try to push the Tories into 3rd place?
As for the Greens, their awesome progress under the enlightened Natalie Bennett is another lost deposit.
Doing better than the pollsters.
""It is the most extraordinary self-inflicted wound I have seen an opposition party inflict on themselves in many, many years."
Really? I mean really? More than Dave riding a bike with a car following him behind? More than Ed making a speech, pretty much any speech but especially that idiotic effort at the Labour conference?
Sheesh...
Did it really only say "image from Rochester" or is there something more to this?
If they are doing the same nationally....
Meanwhile .... interesting you should note the LibDems local by-election performance in the Cheadle constituency last night. In this constituency where the yellow peril are strong and hold the parliamentary seat they performed very well in a Conservative area.
The contrast with R&S is stark and is indicative of the position the LibDems are in - almost extinct in the vast swaths of seats but remaining strong in around 75 constituencies.
At any other time, this would be trivial (if a revealing over-reaction) - on the day of a potentially damaging bye-election for the PM, it really is immaculate timing.....so yes, it is worse than most
For the last 20 years (since Blair, Mandelson and Campbell etc got together to try to control the press and free speech), the Orwellian movement has increased, with PC views almost enforced to shut down free debate on subjects that should not be mentioned.
Unfortunately, the ferret has escaped the sack, as daily more revelations about past ignoring of inconvenient truths by people in power are brought to light.
Until May!!!
Knocked it on the head last when Sky reported no counting started till 1am – why the delay?
Under FPTP you need votes where you are in contention.
And let's have none of this supposed pro-Tory tactical voting malarkey, LibDems have never been known to vote tactically for the Blues in their sweet little lives, quite the opposite in fact.
Those in the party *cough* who are relying on Ashcroft's polls to save them at the forthcoming GE could be in for a nasty shock.
Personally, I've more confidence in Stephen Fisher's model showing them losing over half their seats.
It's being done because Labour know very well they have a whole bunch of policies that are anti the English nation:
- No English parliament
- No English votes for English law
- Continued anti-English Barnett formula
- More mass immigration
- No referendum on the European Union
- People of English descent being discriminated against in public sector jobs
They thus want to close the debate down fast.
Also he said that 'Previously Labour voters would not vote Conservative but they are happy now to vote for UKIP.'
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6109809/Labour-to-lose-10-MPs-as-voters-back-Ukip-study-reveals.html
Anyone know anything about this 'internal study'?
FPTP is a very harsh mistress as the Liberals founds in the 70's/80's and as Ukip will find next May when they may poll around 12% give or take and find the LibDems around the same percentage but with ten times Ukip's seats - 30 to 3 or so.
A stunning win for the Tories when they should technically be greeting roasted by the media.
The news is actually full of some MP tweeting about flags. How on earth Miliband allowed this to happen is beyond belief. If UKIP can win there they can win anywhere.........Yup until next May 2025 and he's a gonna with that majority on 50 of the vote.
4/6 Conservatives
11/10 UKIP
25/1 Labour
Yes, very impressive.
@VickiYoung01: So Labour pre-briefed that #RochesterandStrood was most definitely all about the Tories. That hasn't gone to plan. #flags
It is the loss of votes to the greens that will see their 2015 MPs fit into a peoplecarrier
My ARSE and Sean Fear are as one here and therefore irrefutable in their considered combined deliberation of a respectable score of 12% for the Faragists.
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.116036403
F1: P1's in just over three-quarters of an hour, I think.
Glancing at the figures, I agree with Mr. Smithson's main conclusion. Worth noting that the Lib Dems were absolutely slaughtered.
Almost 3 times the time given that to Rochester.
Labour, Useless totally utterly useless
Anyone else see a problem with that?
Lucy Powell, tactical genius, is due on the Daily Politics today
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/qori88196k/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-201114.pdf
Gruesome internals:
Seems to chop & change all the time:
Con: 17 (-1)
Lab: 31 (+4)
Mind you, I can see how Ed doesn't want voters to think Labour is led by North London residents of multimillion pound homes married to very well paid lawyers.....
Let's get a Scottish Labour MP on the airwaves!
Oh, wait...
It goes as much to the heart of Lab as an OE appointment to the No.10 Policy Unit or a tax cut for football club owners would do to the Cons.
There were a whole host of ways her posting that picture could have been interpreted and the one that was chosen to destroy her was by no means the most obvious. She of course made a bit of a mess of the rebuttal but I think she can justifiably feel hard done by this morning.
Its all politics of course but that doesn't make it right.
I'm afraid you too often allow your total disdain of the LibDems to cloud any reasoned analysis of their essential position which is dire in most seats but enjoying substantial strength in several dozen seats.
In contrast Ukip enjoys broad support but with limited opportunities to convert to wins in a general election.
"Image from Rochester".
My take on it: it was her idea of a clever pun on "image".
I.e. Image = picture, and Image = impression of Rochester as nationalistic working class.
She doesn't add the word "image" normally. Why would you?
Good odds for UKIP. They may even increase their majority.
The PB Tories like talking about "incumbency" advantage except when it works against them.
Reckless is now double-incumbent. Embarrassing past quotes will now be old hat.
However, Suzanne Evans of UKIP on BBC was embarrassing. She accused someone in the Tory Party of "corruption". Had to withdraw it after about 30 seconds !
You are getting more like Victor Meldrew every day.
Mr. P, I wonder if Alexander has that general brief. I recall him popping up when Labour initial derided Cameron's desire to have some semblance of fairness for England.