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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there were a Newark by-election…
My thoughts on the immediate consequences for this are at first, there’s probably one less letter demanding a leadership vote in the Tory party now which will bring a smile to David Cameron’s face, but we could have a by-election, and would that bring a smile to Cameron’s face?
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My prayers were answered.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/newark/
Con = 40% of 2010 vote
Lab = 60% of 2010
LD = 40% of 2010
UKIP = 22% of Con 2010, 18% of LD 2010, 12% Lab 2010, and retain their own 2010
UKIP 11240
Con 11036
Lab 6862
LD 4098
46% turnout
"Panorama are planning to broadcast a programme alleging that I have broken Parliamentary rules.
"I am taking legal advice about these allegations - and I have referred myself to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards.
"In the meantime, to save my party embarrassment, I have resigned the Conservative whip and have so informed Sir George Young. I have also decided not to stand at the next general election."
That doesn't sound as though he's going to resign his seat. Of course events may overtake him, but that's rather unlikely - it takes a lot* to shove out an MP who doesn't want to go.
* Note to tim: Yes, I know. Laws, parliamentary recall, blah blah
http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/matthew-parris/8921021/why-ukip-is-a-party-of-extremists/
The spirit of Ukippery is paranoid. It distorts and simplifies the world, perceiving a range of different ills and difficulties as all proceeding from two sources: foreigners abroad, and in Britain a ‘metropolitan liberal elite’ (typically thought to be in league with foreigners). None of the problems it identifies (with immigration, with EU bureaucracy, with the cost of the EU, with the ambitions of some Europeanists, with political correctness, with health-and-safety, with human rights legislation etc) are anything less than real; but to the un-extremist mind they need to be tackled ad hoc, one by one, rather than seen as the hydra-headed expression of a single monster.
With that in mind - do we need to watch P&Qs here very carefully?
its a perfect touch for a UKIP candidate
The public don't feel what the stats "show"... they are unconvinced hedgehogs
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323372504578464704081223308.html
Post 2010 By Elections
Eastleigh turnout was 78% of 2010
Rotherham 57%
Corby 66%
OE&S 78%
Middlesbro 50%
so 46% turnout is 64% of Newark 2010 (71%)
Ive got the stats for each party I will have a look.. Im trying to trade the cricket at the same time!
There's also Tuxford, Bingham, Farndon, Farnsfield, Southwell and Radcliffe divisions.
It's a ridiculous argument. Even if you think the policies in question aren't related, it's not "extremist" to see connections. Extremist is believing non-white people should be kicked out the country or that adulterers should be stoned.
If you read the piece you can actually see the thinking of people like Parris happening. He starts out with his conclusion - UKIP are extremists - and then looks around trying to scrape together a justification for that conclusion. It shows the conclusion is instinctual rather than one made on level-headed reasoning and analysis.
Where does that instinct come from? Well, perhaps it's just a cultural aversion to the manner and style of normal people out in the country. Whether it's middle-aged rural people that wear blazers or the manual workers that go to working men's clubs, people like Parris' natural reaction is to roll their eyes at them.
Would be a decent seat for Boris, should he fancy an early return to Westminster....
The europhiles need to realise the only way they are going to have a chance is if they start debating pros and cons rather than just going "those people on the other side wear tweed jackets, they're bloody horrible". A couple of them have started doing it recently, but they're so new at it they're arguments are very weak and can easily be countered.
I would love to see UKIP win Newark if it ever came to a By-election but I just don't think it is in any way a likely prospect.
Bogus English Colleges have got nowt to do with the EU either - we could leave, and still have the problem - unless it was being tackled.
UKIP voters attitudes to a range of issues do exhibit heightened concern ("paranoia" to the unkind) compared to other voters.
'The spirit of Ukippery is paranoid. It distorts and simplifies the world, perceiving a range of different ills and difficulties as all proceeding from two sources: foreigners abroad, and in Britain a ‘metropolitan liberal elite’ (typically thought to be in league with foreigners). None of the problems it identifies (with immigration, with EU bureaucracy, with the cost of the EU, with the ambitions of some Europeanists, with political correctness, with health-and-safety, with human rights legislation etc) are anything less than real; but to the un-extremist mind they need to be tackled ad hoc, one by one, rather than seen as the hydra-headed expression of a single monster."
He's expressed it perfectly and got it dead right-particularly the first few lines. How unusual for Matthew Parris.
Your second argument is very weak. 40-50% of our immigration has nothing to do with bogus English colleges.
More to the point, he claims that these things need to be tackled on an ad-hoc basis. An argument which entirely fails to recognise that no one has and no one will tackle them on any basis because they are part of a collective mindset by politicians who think that they are either a good thing or so unimportant as to be not worth considering. Parris himself like you is a perfect example of that mindset.
And as I said there are moves to align rulings between the ECHR and the ECJ.
Are you opposed to the "free movement of labour"? If so, where do you plan to house all the expat Brits repatriated to the UK when we withdraw?
I assume we'll hear more details in the Sundays if there are whether or not they did anything questionable.
I wonder whether the Tories will cease be thought of as the 'Nasty Party' now there is a nastier one coming up on the outside. In the same way that Powell made Heath's Tories seem quite decent in comparison I suspect Farage might do the same for Cameron's
.
As for free movement and ex-pats you clearly haven't bothered to read what UKIP are suggesting (why am I not surprised that you make assumptions without the facts?
" but to the un-extremist mind they need to be tackled ad hoc, one by one, rather than seen as the hydra-headed expression of a single monster."
I see problems aplenty - but no monsters....
3 years later...
Average Joe: "Arent there twice the amount of immigrants that you forecast? Werent the 'scaremongers correct?"
Establishment :"Mass immigration has improved education standards & boosted the economy you racist bigot."
Are you suggesting that we might want to leave the ECHR but not the EU?
Gawd help us proles while there are still people like you about Roger.
The 2013 equivalent of a crusty old hippie banging on about CND in 1997
Ok
2+2=5
2+2=5
Do it to Julia Do it to Julia
I think the problem is just that it's not really clear who the challenger is. Labour are probably stronger as they get to squeeze the LibDems, but to be in with a shot they also need UKIP to split the right-wing vote. But if UKIP are strong enough to hurt the Tories, there will be some media speculation about how they might win, and they'll squeeze Labour in turn.
"An argument which entirely fails to recognise that no one has and no one will tackle them on any basis because they are part of a collective mindset by politicians who think that they are either a good thing or so unimportant as to be not worth considering."
I agree with that and good.....because like me most normally balanced people who live in cities (that's most of us) just aren't either scared or or even much interested in these issues-
-civil servant can discuss them behind the scenes-because those of us who aren't hiding behind our sofas are enjoying the things that our rich mix of cultures and the EU have gifted us. It's just as simple as that.
I found this an interesting article. I'm right on the Generation X/Y boundary fwiw, in a age cohort that's one of the smallest. I sometimes think that drives the attitudes of me and my direct peers - there are not many of us and we're paying for those older and those younger.
'Says the champagne socialist living the high life in southern France. You are a million miles from being, normal or balanced Roger.'
Is that the view from the Norwegian oil rig?
Some of us choose to support our country and pay our way even when we disagree with the way the money is being wasted.
German census delivers a surpise. 1.5 million fewer people living in the country than estimated of which 1.1 million immigrants. And yet they still key getting richer.
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/zensus-2011-deutschland-hat-1-5-millionen-weniger-einwohner-als-angenommen-12202722.html
W/O Con or 2nd place markets will be the most interesting, UKIP vs Labour methinks. (UKIP is stronger on the east side of Lincs/ this is Notts/The west side where Labour did better in the LEs)
What price Lib Dems to Lose/Hold deposit is the interesting one for them
Labour could be worth a sneaky bet for winner if the price is long enough...
In his days as an MP, and as a young man, Matthew Parris would have identified very closely with the sort of people who now vote UKIP. I suppose that once you start living among Davos men, you adopt their outlook.
Consumer confidence soars towards the ether in May as it leaps 5 points to -22, the strongest reading since November 2012 and 7 points higher than in any other month of 2012.
The research was carried out by GfK, the polling group, whose Managing Director of Social Research, Nick Moon, concluded:
"There are now some real signs that consumers, while hardly confident, are moving out of the feeling of despondency that the country has been mired in for the last year or so."
And if that wasn't enough, the British Chambers of Commerce have revised upward their forecasts for GDP growth between now and 2015.
The BCC said gross domestic product (GDP) will rise 0.9% this year, 1.9% in 2014 and 2.4% in 2015 compared with earlier predictions of 0.6%, 1.7% and 2.2% respectively.
Has summer come early this year? The weather may not have caught up with the economy but the sun is certainly shining out of Boy George.
Where is BenM? He should be out looking for a Georgian suntan.
Con 43% Lab 20% UKIP 15% LD 14% Ind 8% ( one division only contested by Con and Lab )
Who is going to bowl the rest of Dernbach's overs? What idiot selected him in the first place? Just incredible.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10091781/Patrick-Mercer-MP-signed-a-contract-with-a-bogus-lobbying-company-undercover-photographs-show.html
Personally, I'm one of the first years with fees, but I also got completely supported because I'm very good at what I do and also because my parent's income was below a threshold. Apostrophe in the correct place there, I think.
Another recent episode of the same show was about Primo Levi, and they had archive interview of levi by Woman's hour. you can slag the bbc all you want, but they do have some amazing stuff/archive
http://www.espncricinfo.com/england-v-new-zealand-2013/engine/current/match/566923.html
(Theyve edited it, was flashing originally!)
The more attentive PB readers will have noted that the UK banks are undercapitalised (by £25 bn according to the BoE PRA) and their mortgage books have been preventing them from easily increasing their risk capital and from supplying credit to households and non-financial enterprises.
I have been speculating that securitisation of mortgage books and purchases of linked bonds would form the next phase of BoE QE or "unusual monetary interventions".
But in the meantime the US Housing market has been strongly rebounding and is powering a recovery in both confidence and growth on the other side of the Atlantic. The US banks are also relatively well capitalised and beginning to shake off their risk aversion.
With the UK recovering in a similar direction, albeit more calmly, market opportunities for private sales of mortgage securities have arisen.
Lloyds Banking Group, the UK's largest mortgage lender, announced today that they had managed to sell U.S. mortgage-backed securities for 3.3 billion pounds ($5 billion). Lloyds claimed that the sale will result in a pretax gain of 540 million pounds and boost the group’s core Tier 1 capital, a measure of financial strength, by about 1.4 billion pounds.
The buyers were mainly US based banks, Bank of America Corp., Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse Group AG and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
The fact that the financial markets are prepared to buy UK mortgage backed securities will greatly accelerate the rate at which the UK banking sector can be recapitalised and restructured. It also makes this process much less dependent on government and BoE intervention, thereby reducing taxpayer risk and government borrowing requirements.
All good news welcomed by the equity markets who pushed Lloyds's shares up 0.4% to 62.05 pence this morning, above the level of 61 pence set by Osborne for the Government to start selling its shares in the market.
So come on George, start the selling now. Gordon's debt laden legacy needs to become history.
And on fees, your year paid only a small fraction of the fees that today's undergrads have. That means they're closer to those that paid no fees than those that paid fees 5-10 times greater.
http://www.private-eye.co.uk/sections.php?section_link=hp_sauce&issue=1341
(Left of centre politically + 2nd home abroad) = Treat the working class like dirt
Maybe it should be (Socially liberal + Second home abroad) = treat the working class like dirt
Or maybe there isn't an equation for it!
I am minded of that great song from the 1940s, sung to the tune of 'The Red Flag':
The working class can kiss my arse,
I have got the foreman's job at last.
I would go on but I fear the rest of the lyrics would damage TSE's fast rising reputation as an editor.
Wind the UKIPpers up so they'll make a something-ist comment for everyone to decry
The workers’ flag is palest pink
Since Gaitskell dipped it in the sink
Now Harold’s done the same as Hugh
The workers’ flag is brightest blue.
And one for New Labour:
http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=lHShVNPB_N8&desktop_uri=/watch?v=lHShVNPB_N8
they can stick the red flag up your hole.
Yeh, I know that one too, Avery. I wonder where you learned it though.
And a good evening to all. Exciting times we are living through.