Mildly surprised the Conservatives themselves have gone for a Putin/Klass Vs Cameron/Miliband comparison, but it might work.
Mocking Miliband is in danger of becoming a popular pastime. Imagine him facing up to ISIS, the Ukraine situation, a belligerent China sending tanks to Hong Kong and so on. Contemplating that sort of scenario will not make people likelier to vote Miliband.
Mildly surprised the Conservatives themselves have gone for a Putin/Klass Vs Cameron/Miliband comparison, but it might work.
Mocking Miliband is in danger of becoming a popular pastime. Imagine him facing up to ISIS, the Ukraine situation, a belligerent China sending tanks to Hong Kong and so on. Contemplating that sort of scenario will not make people likelier to vote Miliband.
Mr Dancer. How has Cameron stood up to Putin? Putin's supporters still control parts of Ukraine.
@Cyclefree Yes, the NRB was used to pass on 40% shares in the house to the sons [20% each]. We can deduce that this was to the value of the 1994 NRB of £150k.
The only benefit was notional. If Mrs Miliband had died not long after Ralph, the entire estate would have been IHT taxable with the benefit of only one NRB (hers) to set off against it. So, had that eventuated, the DOV would have saved them £150k * 40% = £60k by making use, as it did, of Ralph's NRB.
But Mrs M is still alive and well, so there is as yet, still no benefit. The Finance Act 2009 also made redundant the benefit of such will-writing (either ante or post-mortem), since now widow/ers can make use of a deceased spouse's unused NRB.
So the Milibands gained no tax saving (except hypothetical) either in 1994 or since, and still may not upon their mother's death, as she has had 20 years to think of other ways to mitigate any tax due on her death...
So they took a precautionary step which could have saved them £60,000 if their mother had died soon after.
Thank you for the explanation.
You're welcome. I think it's a non-story. What say you?
I don't think it a story. But I think tax avoidance is perfectly legitimate. I was just curious as to how it might have worked hence my questions to you.
It risks becoming a story if Ed makes a big point of talking about higher taxes on the rich and others point out the possible hypocrisy of his stance. All Labour leaders are vulnerable to that charge - unless you're of the Blair/Mandelson ilk. And Labour themselves have laid the groundwork for it by talking about tax cuts for Cameron's friends and asking how much he benefited from IHT changes. So they shouldn't complain if the same is done to them.
Mildly surprised the Conservatives themselves have gone for a Putin/Klass Vs Cameron/Miliband comparison, but it might work.
Mocking Miliband is in danger of becoming a popular pastime. Imagine him facing up to ISIS, the Ukraine situation, a belligerent China sending tanks to Hong Kong and so on. Contemplating that sort of scenario will not make people likelier to vote Miliband.
Last week went to a sort of fringe event at Essex University. The speaker, talking on a biological subject and, from remarks elsewhere clearly left of centre prefaced his talk with some comment as “I’m not doing an Ed Milliband, I'll use notes!"
Mildly surprised the Conservatives themselves have gone for a Putin/Klass Vs Cameron/Miliband comparison, but it might work.
Mocking Miliband is in danger of becoming a popular pastime. Imagine him facing up to ISIS, the Ukraine situation, a belligerent China sending tanks to Hong Kong and so on. Contemplating that sort of scenario will not make people likelier to vote Miliband.
I'd imagine our strategic NATO/US positions would be virtually identical under Cameron or Miliband when push comes to shove on potential flashpoints such as those. Neither Dave nor Ed will be president of the USA or the chief of NATO which are the only two military-political positions that ultimately matter in the western world.
Is it just me or does this ad demand the response, "Neither, they're both about as useful as a chocolate teapot"? I mean, David Cameron's "confrontation" seems to consist of standing there looking uncomfortable, and Putin's response to it seems to have been to send a bunch more tanks into Ukraine, something which everybody knows Cameron is neither ready, willing or able to do anything about. Then you imagine Ed Miliband in the same situation, and maybe he'd blink at him or something, resulting in exactly the same outcome.
Dr. Prasannan, to be factual, I believe Cameron's got a harder line with sanctions than the rather soft Germans.
But that's not what I meant. It's about how people come across, the image they project. Miliband's problem is that it's bloody awkward, and occasionally worthy of mockery [I do sympathise with him. As I've mentioned before, I photograph almost as badly, albeit as a psychopath rather than a berk].
...Lab have gone off full steam on conflating tax avoidance and evasion and have talked about "aggressive" tax avoidance (what that? @RodCrosby?) and so the General Public can hardly be blamed if they fail to distinguish between, say, multi-nationals tax resident in Luxembourg and Ed's DOV.
As has been pointed out multiple times HMRC (and thus the government) have clear definitions of what tax planning, tax avoidance and tax evasion are.
It's not Labour that are conflating tax planning with tax avoidance, it's morons who want to conflate ISAs with complicated multi-entity offshore schemes in an effort to criticise Ed/Labour that are doing the conflation.
It looks like one potential payer of the mansion tax is looking to hedge his position:
Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics · 47 secs47 seconds ago One Ladbrokes customer has just had £15,000 at 1/8 for Ed Miliband to remain as Labour leader until next election.
Sky Bet are 1-5 on this.
Probably worth checking the max bet before uploading £15k to your skybet account...
Well I don't play for those stakes but they took 1% of that.
Are you on ?
Nah. I'm on EdM as next PM on Betfair @ ~2.7, only for a hundred quid or so.
I can't be arsed faffing around, tying up money with bookies on odds on favourites this far out. I'll get the same return as the 1/5 bet by laying off ^ at 2.36, which I may do shortly.
On these extra special occasions I always think of Mutleys laugh the dog of "dirty" Dick Dastardly of whacky races. Nothing else quite sums it up really?
Just seen the Ken Livingstone nonsense on Daily Politics.. what a contemptible man he is
What did he do/say?
Referring to the people in charge of investigating the dealings of Lutfur Rahmn, Mayor of Tower Hamlets...
"To a crowd of about 1,000 people, Mr Livingstone said the commissioners should be "ashamed of themselves" if they take the job.
He added: "When these commissioners turn up, find out where they live and then have a peaceful demonstration outside their homes so their neighbours know that these are the type of people that turn out and overturn a democratically elected mayor.
"Make their lives intolerable. Fight them, expose them, make sure everybody knows what they're doing."
Mildly surprised the Conservatives themselves have gone for a Putin/Klass Vs Cameron/Miliband comparison, but it might work.
Mocking Miliband is in danger of becoming a popular pastime. Imagine him facing up to ISIS, the Ukraine situation, a belligerent China sending tanks to Hong Kong and so on. Contemplating that sort of scenario will not make people likelier to vote Miliband.
I'd imagine our strategic NATO/US positions would be virtually identical under Cameron or Miliband when push comes to shove on potential flashpoints such as those. Neither Dave nor Ed will be president of the USA or the chief of NATO which are the only two military-political positions that ultimately matter in the western world.
It also opens the door for UKIP to point out the scale of defence cuts under this government.
I'm very surprised that Opinium conducted a poll so early (it usually does polls for the Observer every 2 weeks), I'm more surprised that it shows a massive collapse of the LD's in favour of the Tories. I thought that the LD decline would follow the usual gradual pattern of scattering to all directions.
Nevertheless, 5% is where UNS catches up with the LD's, if they score 5% or less then they will get less than 10 seats. I expect Nick Clegg not to be re-elected in his seat if they get 5% or less, especially if the collapse is towards the Tories.
...Lab have gone off full steam on conflating tax avoidance and evasion and have talked about "aggressive" tax avoidance (what that? @RodCrosby?) and so the General Public can hardly be blamed if they fail to distinguish between, say, multi-nationals tax resident in Luxembourg and Ed's DOV.
As has been pointed out multiple times HMRC (and thus the government) have clear definitions of what tax planning, tax avoidance and tax evasion are.
It's not Labour that are conflating tax planning with tax avoidance, it's morons who want to conflate ISAs with complicated multi-entity offshore schemes in an effort to criticise Ed/Labour that are doing the conflation.
Sadly I have to agree with you. I don't support EdM, of course. Osborne has regularly said the same and money has been set aside to fight the abuse of people taking the rest of us for a ride.
Myleene Klass, - (must admit, not a person I was overly familiar with until today) appears to have upset quite a few on twitter after her altercation with Ed last night - she now appears to be getting the same treatment normally reserved for Rupert Murdoch and child rapists.
Mildly surprised the Conservatives themselves have gone for a Putin/Klass Vs Cameron/Miliband comparison, but it might work.
Mocking Miliband is in danger of becoming a popular pastime. Imagine him facing up to ISIS, the Ukraine situation, a belligerent China sending tanks to Hong Kong and so on. Contemplating that sort of scenario will not make people likelier to vote Miliband.
I'd imagine our strategic NATO/US positions would be virtually identical under Cameron or Miliband when push comes to shove on potential flashpoints such as those. Neither Dave nor Ed will be president of the USA or the chief of NATO which are the only two military-political positions that ultimately matter in the western world.
It also opens the door for UKIP to point out the scale of defence cuts under this government.
Since Britain doesn't have any overseas territories that have a land border (apart from Gibraltar) then it doesn't need an land army, only a navy and an airforce.
Whoa !! ed strikes back ( after a day thinking about it)
"Ed Miliband has hit back at Myleene Klass after she launched a stinging attack on the mansion tax. In a sarcastic reference to Miss Klass’s most successful pop hit with her former band ‘Hear'Say,’ Mr Miliband said it was “Pure and Simple” that “our NHS needs a mansion tax."
Just seen the Ken Livingstone nonsense on Daily Politics.. what a contemptible man he is
What did he do/say?
Referring to the people in charge of investigating the dealings of Lutfur Rahmn, Mayor of Tower Hamlets...
"To a crowd of about 1,000 people, Mr Livingstone said the commissioners should be "ashamed of themselves" if they take the job.
He added: "When these commissioners turn up, find out where they live and then have a peaceful demonstration outside their homes so their neighbours know that these are the type of people that turn out and overturn a democratically elected mayor.
"Make their lives intolerable. Fight them, expose them, make sure everybody knows what they're doing."
That kind of intimidation ought to be illegal (if it isn't already).
It's funny, when I heard that people were being sent in to investigate Tower Hamlets my first thought was 'I hope they get bodyguards'.
They will inquestionably be on the receiving end of intimidation. It's the nature of the beast in the Islamic Republic of TH.
Amusing though the thought may be, Kent, I can't let that pass, even if only because there might be one idiot out there who thinks there is some truth in it.
I was born and brought up nearby, live a few miles down the road and visit the area regularly. You have to take sensible precautions, as you would in most inner City areas, but Aleppo it certainly is not.
Happy to take you for a drink in the Crown if you disagree.
I'm very surprised that Opinium conducted a poll so early (it usually does polls for the Observer every 2 weeks), I'm more surprised that it shows a massive collapse of the LD's in favour of the Tories. I thought that the LD decline would follow the usual gradual pattern of scattering to all directions.
Nevertheless, 5% is where UNS catches up with the LD's, if they score 5% or less then they will get less than 10 seats. I expect Nick Clegg not to be re-elected in his seat if they get 5% or less, especially if the collapse is towards the Tories.
It's one poll and the movement within the poll is significant but it could of course be an outlier though I imagine all the Tory-inclined will paint it as the unvarnished truth. Let's see where we are with other polls.
I have assumed that the mansion tax would be politically popular. It is just the same old politics of envy in line with past socialists that believed in 98% income tax for high earners. A shame that we have so many socialists in Labour and the Lib Dems. Back to the 1970s..
I'm very surprised that Opinium conducted a poll so early (it usually does polls for the Observer every 2 weeks), I'm more surprised that it shows a massive collapse of the LD's in favour of the Tories. I thought that the LD decline would follow the usual gradual pattern of scattering to all directions.
Nevertheless, 5% is where UNS catches up with the LD's, if they score 5% or less then they will get less than 10 seats. I expect Nick Clegg not to be re-elected in his seat if they get 5% or less, especially if the collapse is towards the Tories.
It's one poll and the movement within the poll is significant but it could of course be an outlier though I imagine all the Tory-inclined will paint it as the unvarnished truth. Let's see where we are with other polls.
If the Lib Dems are at 5%, uniform national swing simply does not work (and the Lib Dems could expect to get fewer seats than uniform national swing would predict, not more).
Could the Tories make gains in Scotland next year?
Yes, they could easily make 100% gains and possibly make 200% gains.
Where will these gains come, do we think?
Roxburgh is number 1 on my list of possibles.
Yes, that would make sense.
TGOHF - not sure about Edinburgh. I think the only seat there where the Tories were second last time was Edinburgh South West - and that's Darling's seat.
I'm very surprised that Opinium conducted a poll so early (it usually does polls for the Observer every 2 weeks), I'm more surprised that it shows a massive collapse of the LD's in favour of the Tories. I thought that the LD decline would follow the usual gradual pattern of scattering to all directions.
Nevertheless, 5% is where UNS catches up with the LD's, if they score 5% or less then they will get less than 10 seats. I expect Nick Clegg not to be re-elected in his seat if they get 5% or less, especially if the collapse is towards the Tories.
It's one poll and the movement within the poll is significant but it could of course be an outlier though I imagine all the Tory-inclined will paint it as the unvarnished truth. Let's see where we are with other polls.
True, it could be an outlier. TSE though would be in a dilemma, if this poll is true then Clegg would lose Sheffield Hallam, if it's an outlier then the Tories are not in the lead with Opinium, a difficult choice for him.
Myleene Klass, - (must admit, not a person I was overly familiar with until today) appears to have upset quite a few on twitter after her altercation with Ed last night - she now appears to be getting the same treatment normally reserved for Rupert Murdoch and child rapists.
I'm very surprised that Opinium conducted a poll so early (it usually does polls for the Observer every 2 weeks), I'm more surprised that it shows a massive collapse of the LD's in favour of the Tories. I thought that the LD decline would follow the usual gradual pattern of scattering to all directions.
Nevertheless, 5% is where UNS catches up with the LD's, if they score 5% or less then they will get less than 10 seats. I expect Nick Clegg not to be re-elected in his seat if they get 5% or less, especially if the collapse is towards the Tories.
It's one poll and the movement within the poll is significant but it could of course be an outlier though I imagine all the Tory-inclined will paint it as the unvarnished truth. Let's see where we are with other polls.
If the Lib Dems are at 5%, uniform national swing simply does not work (and the Lib Dems could expect to get fewer seats than uniform national swing would predict, not more).
I think pollsters should ask the "in your constituency" question, even for national polling. Because "in your constituency" tends to show considerable Lib Dem upticks. I think it would lead to more accurate national polls.
I'm very surprised that Opinium conducted a poll so early (it usually does polls for the Observer every 2 weeks), I'm more surprised that it shows a massive collapse of the LD's in favour of the Tories. I thought that the LD decline would follow the usual gradual pattern of scattering to all directions.
Nevertheless, 5% is where UNS catches up with the LD's, if they score 5% or less then they will get less than 10 seats. I expect Nick Clegg not to be re-elected in his seat if they get 5% or less, especially if the collapse is towards the Tories.
It's one poll and the movement within the poll is significant but it could of course be an outlier though I imagine all the Tory-inclined will paint it as the unvarnished truth. Let's see where we are with other polls.
If the Lib Dems are at 5%, uniform national swing simply does not work (and the Lib Dems could expect to get fewer seats than uniform national swing would predict, not more).
I think pollsters should ask the "in your constituency" question, even for national polling. Because "in your constituency" tends to show considerable Lib Dem upticks. I think it would lead to more accurate national polls.
I agree completely, for the reasons put in my post yesterday evening:
Could the Tories make gains in Scotland next year?
Yes, they could easily make 100% gains and possibly make 200% gains.
Where will these gains come, do we think?
Roxburgh is number 1 on my list of possibles.
Yes, that would make sense.
TGOHF - not sure about Edinburgh. I think the only seat there where the Tories were second last time was Edinburgh South West - and that's Darling's seat.
Is it just me or does this ad demand the response, "Neither, they're both about as useful as a chocolate teapot"? I mean, David Cameron's "confrontation" seems to consist of standing there looking uncomfortable, and Putin's response to it seems to have been to send a bunch more tanks into Ukraine, something which everybody knows Cameron is neither ready, willing or able to do anything about. Then you imagine Ed Miliband in the same situation, and maybe he'd blink at him or something, resulting in exactly the same outcome.
Milliband stood up to the Americans over Syria whereas Cameron has consistently sacrificed our interests to the Americans, cheerleading wars in Iraq, Libya and Syria as well as US efforts to destabilise the Ukraine and isolate Russia.
I am surprised Miliband hasn't played his hand on the Syria vote better, its been the one real redeeming feature of his time as Labour leader.
Could the Tories make gains in Scotland next year?
Yes, they could easily make 100% gains and possibly make 200% gains.
Where will these gains come, do we think?
Roxburgh is number 1 on my list of possibles.
Yes, that would make sense.
TGOHF - not sure about Edinburgh. I think the only seat there where the Tories were second last time was Edinburgh South West - and that's Darling's seat.
Darling isn't standing.
Sorry, Alistair - and TGHOF - that fact completely passed me by.
Of the four pictured here I'd rather have Putin and Klass running things than either Call me Dave or Beaker! @Conservatives
Then you are a very very silly little boy The average life expectancy for men in Russia is 65 25% of men die before 55. Most of these deaths are down to alcohol. And most of these drinkers are smokers. You you really want Putin to run the UK? Russia is evaporating away and its major source of revenue has seen its price fall by getting on for 30% in just a few months. Falling energy revenue, shrinking & ailing population, smaller workforce, fewer consumers. You add it up. Hmm... kippers can't add up - no wonder Putin is their hero.
Mildly surprised the Conservatives themselves have gone for a Putin/Klass Vs Cameron/Miliband comparison, but it might work.
Mocking Miliband is in danger of becoming a popular pastime. Imagine him facing up to ISIS, the Ukraine situation, a belligerent China sending tanks to Hong Kong and so on. Contemplating that sort of scenario will not make people likelier to vote Miliband.
I'd imagine our strategic NATO/US positions would be virtually identical under Cameron or Miliband when push comes to shove on potential flashpoints such as those. Neither Dave nor Ed will be president of the USA or the chief of NATO which are the only two military-political positions that ultimately matter in the western world.
It also opens the door for UKIP to point out the scale of defence cuts under this government.
Since Britain doesn't have any overseas territories that have a land border (apart from Gibraltar) then it doesn't need an land army, only a navy and an airforce.
I don't think it a story. But I think tax avoidance is perfectly legitimate. I was just curious as to how it might have worked hence my questions to you.
It risks becoming a story if Ed makes a big point of talking about higher taxes on the rich and others point out the possible hypocrisy of his stance. All Labour leaders are vulnerable to that charge - unless you're of the Blair/Mandelson ilk. And Labour themselves have laid the groundwork for it by talking about tax cuts for Cameron's friends and asking how much he benefited from IHT changes. So they shouldn't complain if the same is done to them.
I wouldn't even class it as avoidance. Ralph M simply forgot to make use of an allowance that was his by right, and that error was rectified by the DOV.
These were the kind of gotchas which make IHT such a pernicious tax (although that particular one was removed in 2009).
It falls mostly on the unworldy, the confused, the ill, and the secretive who are fearful of solicitors and their bills...
We were, at one time, potentially on the hook for around £250k but thankfully the final bill was zero.
Is it just me or does this ad demand the response, "Neither, they're both about as useful as a chocolate teapot"? I mean, David Cameron's "confrontation" seems to consist of standing there looking uncomfortable, and Putin's response to it seems to have been to send a bunch more tanks into Ukraine, something which everybody knows Cameron is neither ready, willing or able to do anything about. Then you imagine Ed Miliband in the same situation, and maybe he'd blink at him or something, resulting in exactly the same outcome.
Milliband stood up to the Americans over Syria whereas Cameron has consistently sacrificed our interests to the Americans, cheerleading wars in Iraq, Libya and Syria as well as US efforts to destabilise the Ukraine and isolate Russia.
I am surprised Miliband hasn't played his hand on the Syria vote better, its been the one real redeeming feature of his time as Labour leader.
He was invited to the US shortly afterward, who no doubt put him in the picture as to what was expected.
Possible Scottish gains by the tories starting with the most likely:
Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirk. If Michael Moore holds on it will be a miracle. West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine. The only risk I see for the Tories here is the SNP coming from behind but the area voted strongly no. Dumfries & Galloway: bit of an ask but possible on a bad Labour performance. Edinburgh SW: newly in the frame since Darling stood down. Only on a very bad night for Labour. Fife NE. I think the Lib Dems will lose this but probably not to the tories. Argyll & Bute: ditto. Ayr Carrick & Cumnock. Nah, this is getting ridiculous.
Whoa !! ed strikes back ( after a day thinking about it)
"Ed Miliband has hit back at Myleene Klass after she launched a stinging attack on the mansion tax. In a sarcastic reference to Miss Klass’s most successful pop hit with her former band ‘Hear'Say,’ Mr Miliband said it was “Pure and Simple” that “our NHS needs a mansion tax."
All back on the bus. Strike that up for a win for Ed. Now for that little wimp Putin.
Churchill once said his best comeback lines were thought of days before hand.
.......with Ed its days after.
#saveEd#WeloveEd
Ed not doing himself any favours there - getting into a spat with a member of the public and acting like a smart-arse to boot. It does nothing to bolster his reputation as a statesman and is demeaning to his office. Perhaps I'll be charitable and assume it was written by some minion who's more keen than capable.
I'm very surprised that Opinium conducted a poll so early (it usually does polls for the Observer every 2 weeks), I'm more surprised that it shows a massive collapse of the LD's in favour of the Tories. I thought that the LD decline would follow the usual gradual pattern of scattering to all directions.
Nevertheless, 5% is where UNS catches up with the LD's, if they score 5% or less then they will get less than 10 seats. I expect Nick Clegg not to be re-elected in his seat if they get 5% or less, especially if the collapse is towards the Tories.
It's one poll and the movement within the poll is significant but it could of course be an outlier though I imagine all the Tory-inclined will paint it as the unvarnished truth. Let's see where we are with other polls.
If the Lib Dems are at 5%, uniform national swing simply does not work (and the Lib Dems could expect to get fewer seats than uniform national swing would predict, not more).
I think pollsters should ask the "in your constituency" question, even for national polling. Because "in your constituency" tends to show considerable Lib Dem upticks. I think it would lead to more accurate national polls.
The second question from Lord A's constituency polls does not show much difference than national polls, in fact it corrects the huge falls it records to a more plausible level, example the average drop is around 14% ,in their own seats the fall is 16%, similar to the 16% average fall in national polls.
I'm very surprised that Opinium conducted a poll so early (it usually does polls for the Observer every 2 weeks), I'm more surprised that it shows a massive collapse of the LD's in favour of the Tories. I thought that the LD decline would follow the usual gradual pattern of scattering to all directions.
Nevertheless, 5% is where UNS catches up with the LD's, if they score 5% or less then they will get less than 10 seats. I expect Nick Clegg not to be re-elected in his seat if they get 5% or less, especially if the collapse is towards the Tories.
It's one poll and the movement within the poll is significant but it could of course be an outlier though I imagine all the Tory-inclined will paint it as the unvarnished truth. Let's see where we are with other polls.
If the Lib Dems are at 5%, uniform national swing simply does not work (and the Lib Dems could expect to get fewer seats than uniform national swing would predict, not more).
I know it's electoral calculus but at these low levels LD's can't escape gravity. I've put the numbers in electoral calculus to see the result for the LD, at 5% they get 7 seats, but when I put the same numbers for the other parties and LD's at 4% they get 0 seats. Ironically with the LD's at 4%, UKIP get Sheffield Hallam, according to electoral calculus.
Mr. Mark, to steal Dr. Prasannan's quote, it reminds me of Star Wars: The more you tighten your grip, the more Scottish seats will slip through your fingers.
By trying to create a perpetual fiefdom Labour have done themselves and their nation long term harm. Morons. In broad terms, it's comparable to the rampant idiocy of the Fourth Crusade, or the baffling complacency of those who have seen what devolution has done to the UK and think that carving up England is a good idea.
OK, so I take back any implied criticism of Myleene!
Klass has been an amateur astronomer for most of her life,[68] having been taught the basics by her father. She was one of only a handful of celebrities, engineers and scientists who were at the UK National Space Centre control centre for the touch-down of the UK Mars probe Beagle 2 in the early morning of Christmas Day 2003. Since then she has been a keen supporter of the UK's work in the European space programme.[69] In March 2006, Klass publicly criticised the proposed closure of the London Planetarium and explained on television how to view Venus in the early morning. She also appeared on Channel 4's Richard & Judy to discuss the book Moondust, which follows the lives of the first men on the moon, and in 2007 attended the televised party on BBC One, held at the home of Patrick Moore in Selsey to mark the 50th anniversary of Moore's monthly programme, The Sky at Night. Klass is now studying astronomy with the Open University.[70]
Possible Scottish gains by the tories starting with the most likely:
Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirk. If Michael Moore holds on it will be a miracle. West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine. The only risk I see for the Tories here is the SNP coming from behind but the area voted strongly no. Dumfries & Galloway: bit of an ask but possible on a bad Labour performance. Edinburgh SW: newly in the frame since Darling stood down. Only on a very bad night for Labour. Fife NE. I think the Lib Dems will lose this but probably not to the tories. Argyll & Bute: ditto. Ayr Carrick & Cumnock. Nah, this is getting ridiculous.
Is an Edinburgh seat really likely to go to the Tories? I'll admit I'm really not an expert on Scotland at all, but in the UK generally, the metropolitan middle-class-ish seats are rapidly trending away from the Tories.
And yet you feel the need to come out to defend Labour. If it wasn't an issue you wouldn't be banging on about it. Still at least you haven't gone for full on misogyny like some of your comrades.
I'm very surprised that Opinium conducted a poll so early (it usually does polls for the Observer every 2 weeks), I'm more surprised that it shows a massive collapse of the LD's in favour of the Tories. I thought that the LD decline would follow the usual gradual pattern of scattering to all directions.
Nevertheless, 5% is where UNS catches up with the LD's, if they score 5% or less then they will get less than 10 seats. I expect Nick Clegg not to be re-elected in his seat if they get 5% or less, especially if the collapse is towards the Tories.
It's one poll and the movement within the poll is significant but it could of course be an outlier though I imagine all the Tory-inclined will paint it as the unvarnished truth. Let's see where we are with other polls.
If the Lib Dems are at 5%, uniform national swing simply does not work (and the Lib Dems could expect to get fewer seats than uniform national swing would predict, not more).
I know it's electoral calculus but at these low levels LD's can't escape gravity. I've put the numbers in electoral calculus to see the result for the LD, at 5% they get 7 seats, but when I put the same numbers for the other parties and LD's at 4% they get 0 seats. Ironically with the LD's at 4%, UKIP get Sheffield Hallam, according to electoral calculus.
Lol UKIP will never win Hallam in a billion years.
Rother Valley is their best chance round these parts I think.
I won't be putting the house on the Lib Dems saving their deposit on the strength of this particular survey of public opinion.
I know someone who has been involved on and off with the Libdems for years, always supported them and is pretty clued up politically. For the last two or three years until starting with the Euros and particularly Clacton he was often reminding me that you underestimate the Libdems at your peril, now he's lost interest in talking about politics. I think he knows its going to be armageddon for them in 2015.
Oh, I'm sure he's as dodgy as a six pound note, Kent, but local politics were ever thus and certainly in that area.
You'll need a few bob if you want to move in there these days though, and the colour of the local politics is changing out of all recognition. I was renting near Bethnal Green Station during the last GE and will never forget answering the door to a gaggle of Muslims straight out of central casting - beards, long flowing robes, white hats, heavy accents, and terribly polite. Turned out they were canvassing for the Conservatives.
Mr. Pulpstar, I don't think they'll win by that margin.
If they did, it'd be very bad for Cameron.
It's the whole Crosby negative campaigning that's getting me, feels like 2005 again. 2010's campaign had its faults but 2005 was vile. And it put me right off... I wonder if the burgers of Rochester & Strood are feeling the same way.
I don't think it a story. But I think tax avoidance is perfectly legitimate. I was just curious as to how it might have worked hence my questions to you.
It risks becoming a story if Ed makes a big point of talking about higher taxes on the rich and others point out the possible hypocrisy of his stance. All Labour leaders are vulnerable to that charge - unless you're of the Blair/Mandelson ilk. And Labour themselves have laid the groundwork for it by talking about tax cuts for Cameron's friends and asking how much he benefited from IHT changes. So they shouldn't complain if the same is done to them.
I wouldn't even class it as avoidance. Ralph M simply forgot to make use of an allowance that was his by right, and that error was rectified by the DOV.
These were the kind of gotchas which make IHT such a pernicious tax (although that particular one was removed in 2009).
It falls mostly on the unworldy, the confused, the ill, and the secretive who are fearful of solicitors and their bills...
We were, at one time, potentially on the hook for around £250k but thankfully the final bill was zero.
What's quite worrying about this media campaign against Miliband is that it seeks to smear ISAs and DOVs with the same public shame as the truly illicit and immoral vehicles of reducing tax, or to make the latter sound as innocuous as the former (take which you pick, or both, but one might do well to consider whether the latter is an aim of the current campaign as well as, of course, attacking Mr M).
This will make it that much more difficult to persuade the elderly and difficult to take the advice they desperately need to follow as they get older. Which will make the situation you describe even worse. The 2009 change was a huge improvement.
"Amusing though the thought may be, Kent, I can't let that pass, even if only because there might be one idiot out there who thinks there is some truth in it.
I was born and brought up nearby, live a few miles down the road and visit the area regularly. You have to take sensible precautions, as you would in most inner City areas, but Aleppo it certainly is not.
Happy to take you for a drink in the Crown if you disagree.
One of the arguments being used by those - i.e. the losing Labour party candidate - challenging the mayoral result in the courts is that voters were being intimidated.
Intimidation of voters, if true, is very serious. It goes to the heart of our electoral system.
It is disgraceful of Livingstone to support intimidation of officers (making the lives of public servants doing a job in the public sector "intolerable") brought in legitimately to ensure that the authority behaves lawfully with taxpayers' money (not brought in to overthrow the Mayor), especially when that Mayor is from a different party - and his supporters have used homophobic abuse against Labour councillors and when it is the Labour candidate who is challenging the election, partly on the grounds of intimidation.
He should be expelled from the Labour party for supporting a candidate from a rival party.
There again, Livingstone had his own difficulties with public monies being handed out to groups with little scrutiny and for unclear purposes and with little or no audit trail as to where the money went so it is no surprise to see him supporting a man accused of doing the same thing.
I'm very surprised that Opinium conducted a poll so early (it usually does polls for the Observer every 2 weeks), I'm more surprised that it shows a massive collapse of the LD's in favour of the Tories. I thought that the LD decline would follow the usual gradual pattern of scattering to all directions.
Nevertheless, 5% is where UNS catches up with the LD's, if they score 5% or less then they will get less than 10 seats. I expect Nick Clegg not to be re-elected in his seat if they get 5% or less, especially if the collapse is towards the Tories.
It's one poll and the movement within the poll is significant but it could of course be an outlier though I imagine all the Tory-inclined will paint it as the unvarnished truth. Let's see where we are with other polls.
If the Lib Dems are at 5%, uniform national swing simply does not work (and the Lib Dems could expect to get fewer seats than uniform national swing would predict, not more).
I know it's electoral calculus but at these low levels LD's can't escape gravity. I've put the numbers in electoral calculus to see the result for the LD, at 5% they get 7 seats, but when I put the same numbers for the other parties and LD's at 4% they get 0 seats. Ironically with the LD's at 4%, UKIP get Sheffield Hallam, according to electoral calculus.
Lol UKIP will never win Hallam in a billion years.
Rother Valley is their best chance round these parts I think.
I know at the moment it's on par with UKIP winning seats in Scotland, but that is electoral calculus as usual.
PBTories should really take a look at some of the Twitter comments about Myleene Klass. It's not just the "usual suspects" of the liberal intelligentsia -- lots of people who seemingly have little interest in politics are saying how angry they are at this very rich person moaning about having to pay a bit more.
On the mansion tax issue - it does spark some thoughts:
- Those renting a dwelling valued over £2m will have it incident on them (the owner will pass it through, doubtless) - The vast majority of the c.125,000-150,000 dwellings valued over £2m will have their value primarily based on location (number derived from "0.5% of homes" multiplied by c. 25million to 30million homes in the UK). The vast majority of these will be in London. - It does smack of a little unfairness for a Government to be key in promoting scarcity of homes in desired locations (no-one's willing to reform the not-fit-for-purpose Green Belt legislation) and then imposing a tax on the value that comes out of that partly-artificial scarcuty - Are any social housing units in these scarce/desirable areas? Given that a regular semi-detached 4 bedroomed house can trigger the tax in some areas, will the tax be levied on social housing tenants who fall in such areas?
PBTories should really take a look at some of the Twitter comments about Myleene Klass. It's not just the "usual suspects" of the liberal intelligentsia -- lots of people who seemingly have little interest in politics are saying how angry they are at this very rich person moaning about having to pay a bit more.
Yet you still have to bang on about it. Let it lie.
If the Lib Dems really did tally 5% at the general election, I expect that they would take Orkney & Shetland, Westmorland & Lonsdale, Norfolk North and Ross, Skye & Lochaber. They would be lucky to take another seat.
Mildly surprised the Conservatives themselves have gone for a Putin/Klass Vs Cameron/Miliband comparison, but it might work.
Mocking Miliband is in danger of becoming a popular pastime. Imagine him facing up to ISIS, the Ukraine situation, a belligerent China sending tanks to Hong Kong and so on. Contemplating that sort of scenario will not make people likelier to vote Miliband.
I'd imagine our strategic NATO/US positions would be virtually identical under Cameron or Miliband when push comes to shove on potential flashpoints such as those. Neither Dave nor Ed will be president of the USA or the chief of NATO which are the only two military-political positions that ultimately matter in the western world.
It also opens the door for UKIP to point out the scale of defence cuts under this government.
Since Britain doesn't have any overseas territories that have a land border (apart from Gibraltar) then it doesn't need an land army, only a navy and an airforce.
Is it just me or does this ad demand the response, "Neither, they're both about as useful as a chocolate teapot"? I mean, David Cameron's "confrontation" seems to consist of standing there looking uncomfortable, and Putin's response to it seems to have been to send a bunch more tanks into Ukraine, something which everybody knows Cameron is neither ready, willing or able to do anything about. Then you imagine Ed Miliband in the same situation, and maybe he'd blink at him or something, resulting in exactly the same outcome.
Difference is Putin pretends to have a meeting with Dave. He'd regard Ed as so pathetic he probably wouldn't even bother.
Just seen the Ken Livingstone nonsense on Daily Politics.. what a contemptible man he is
What did he do/say?
Referring to the people in charge of investigating the dealings of Lutfur Rahmn, Mayor of Tower Hamlets...
"To a crowd of about 1,000 people, Mr Livingstone said the commissioners should be "ashamed of themselves" if they take the job.
He added: "When these commissioners turn up, find out where they live and then have a peaceful demonstration outside their homes so their neighbours know that these are the type of people that turn out and overturn a democratically elected mayor.
"Make their lives intolerable. Fight them, expose them, make sure everybody knows what they're doing."
If the Lib Dems really did tally 5% at the general election, I expect that they would take Orkney & Shetland, Westmorland & Lonsdale, Norfolk North and Ross, Skye & Lochaber. They would be lucky to take another seat.
They'd best try hard in Eastleigh then.
Though not so much in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross ta very much.
PBTories should really take a look at some of the Twitter comments about Myleene Klass. It's not just the "usual suspects" of the liberal intelligentsia -- lots of people who seemingly have little interest in politics are saying how angry they are at this very rich person moaning about having to pay a bit more.
Except of course that she wouldn't have to pay more because the house she lived in was sold for £1.8 mio i.e. below the threshold.
So not so much a rich person moaning about having to pay more tax but more a rich person moaning that other richer people might have to pay more.
Is it just me or does this ad demand the response, "Neither, they're both about as useful as a chocolate teapot"? I mean, David Cameron's "confrontation" seems to consist of standing there looking uncomfortable, and Putin's response to it seems to have been to send a bunch more tanks into Ukraine, something which everybody knows Cameron is neither ready, willing or able to do anything about. Then you imagine Ed Miliband in the same situation, and maybe he'd blink at him or something, resulting in exactly the same outcome.
Difference is Putin pretends to have a meeting with Dave. He'd regard Ed as so pathetic he probably wouldn't even bother.
I think they couldn't avoid a meeting during the G20, if Ed becomes PM i'm sure he will attend the G20 too and meet some of it's leaders for a photo op.
Could the Tories make gains in Scotland next year?
Berwickshier&c and Kincardine&c should be possible. Others seem like longer shots, perhaps Dumfries. NE Fife and Aberdeenshire W are probably too long a shot, although it depends on the Indy referendum and how the Tartan Tory vote splits.An Edinburgh seat also looks a seat too far.
She did win the argument, she shoudn't have; an able Labour leader would have slaughtered her and given no quarter, but the fact is that on the night she did win the argument. That is the problem Labour have with Iain Duncan Miliband.
WTF didn't Ed prepare rebuttals for the interview, did it not occur to him that a millionaire former pop starette living in an expensive house might have negative views on the mansion tax?, a tax that the rest of us with houses worth about £250k actually support and if anything think is too timid; as it is high time removal of the free ride such people have had since the Tories abolished domestic rates.
What we actually need is a land value tax of 1% of the value of any land owned with no exemptions (other than perhaps certain charities like the national trust). That would break up the big estates, tax the multinationals heavily and stop pensioners bed blocking family houses.
I was responding to the insinuation that somehow the area was not safe. In fairness, I think Kent has accepted that to be a misrepresentation.
As for electoral fraud of any kind, never mind intimidation, it is to be deplored wherever it arises. All power to those who expose it.
In my defence, may I state that I voted for Boris ahead of Ken - only the second time in my life I have voted for a Conservative. Why? Well of course I have no proof that Ken is less pure and white than the driven snow, but I have always had my suspicions..... ;-)
Highlights Ed's inability to think on his feet, or refute Myleene's Klass's point. Generalities are not enough, though Labour ought to bear in mind that the sums involved won't help run The NHS for very long.
But even his own side recognise an own goal when they see it.
So with opinium having the tories in the lead, that's 2 polls in a row, thread on that presumably?
Not read the thread yet so presume this has been covered?
As discussed, there is a dilemma for praetorian Tories about this poll because if it's true then it's terminal (really really terminal) for the LD's and Nick Clegg. So opinion is divided, I personally think it's an outlier and the good thing is we can wait till Saturday evening when the next Opinium poll should be due.
On the mansion tax issue - it does spark some thoughts:
- Those renting a dwelling valued over £2m will have it incident on them (the owner will pass it through, doubtless),
No they won't, any more than they can pass on any other bill, rents are set on market value which is why rents in my Bedfordshire town are exactly the same as they were in 2001 despite property prices more than doubling in value
- The vast majority of the c.125,000-150,000 dwellings valued over £2m will have their value primarily based on location (number derived from "0.5% of homes" multiplied by c. 25million to 30million homes in the UK). The vast majority of these will be in London. - It does smack of a little unfairness for a Government to be key in promoting scarcity of homes in desired locations (no-one's willing to reform the not-fit-for-purpose Green Belt legislation) and then imposing a tax on the value that comes out of that partly-artificial scarcuty
Do what I do then, move out 40 odd miles and commute. Better lifestyle and more space too.
- Are any social housing units in these scarce/desirable areas? Given that a regular semi-detached 4 bedroomed house can trigger the tax in some areas, will the tax be levied on social housing tenants who fall in such areas?
No, because they are tenants not owners.
Buy to letters are a very small amount of the electorate owning huge value immovable assets which can be milked by the government for tax, they are turkeys approaching Christmas, and not before time.
The Mansion tax is truly one of the best named taxes of all time, from an opposition point of view. I don't know if it even has a different name, like how supporters generally try not to refer to the Bedroom tax as the Bedroom tax. No matter how true it may be that relatively normal houses (or at least not extravagantly large and lavish houses) in London will price wise fall into the 'mansion' category, it will always revert in peoples' minds as something much grander.
Regarding this whole Klass business, I thought she looked good making her points, it was delivered pretty well, but even some moderate thought on it made me question her water comparison for example. It really didn't feel like has genuinely been taken to task by someone unexpected, just that he hadn't expected the attempt so much that he didn't defend a popular policy very well.
A Ukip insider told MMN: "The Tories and Labour have flooded this place with so-called big hitters and only succeeded in p******* people off.
Quite agree. I hope UKIP smash it out the park in Rochester on Thursday.
I wrote here when I read that Cameron planed to visit Rochester 5 times that the only result will be to remind people why they hate the Tories.
Perhaps you're right, although in that case I do wonder how any party is supposed to properly oppose UKIP, or even if they can - don't send people in in force, as many Tories would clearly have no problem with as many of them want UKIP to do well at their expense, and you're exposing your belly to UKIP. Send people in force and you annoy people and, as they already didn't like you, you reinforce why they don't like you.
A Ukip insider told MMN: "The Tories and Labour have flooded this place with so-called big hitters and only succeeded in p******* people off.
Quite agree. I hope UKIP smash it out the park in Rochester on Thursday.
The second strange poll of the afternoon. Imagine if that did happen - the LDs third, Labour fourth, the Tories smashed to 14% and presumably Nigel Farage's phone red-hot with Tories wishing to defect to his Party.
No doubt Scott P would be along to claim it was a good result for the Conservatives.
Is it just me or does this ad demand the response, "Neither, they're both about as useful as a chocolate teapot"? I mean, David Cameron's "confrontation" seems to consist of standing there looking uncomfortable, and Putin's response to it seems to have been to send a bunch more tanks into Ukraine, something which everybody knows Cameron is neither ready, willing or able to do anything about. Then you imagine Ed Miliband in the same situation, and maybe he'd blink at him or something, resulting in exactly the same outcome.
Milliband stood up to the Americans over Syria whereas Cameron has consistently sacrificed our interests to the Americans, cheerleading wars in Iraq, Libya and Syria as well as US efforts to destabilise the Ukraine and isolate Russia.
I am surprised Miliband hasn't played his hand on the Syria vote better, its been the one real redeeming feature of his time as Labour leader.
How many times will they call wolf? Is this the second, third, nth time that (up to) hundreds of Russian tanks are in Ukraine. Leads the news cycle for a couple of days. Then nothing. Presumably because they are special tanks that cannot be photographed, even from the air. Although US satellites have no problems with these tanks on the Russian side of the border.
All items from Washington/Kiev are treated as gospel. Anything from Moscow is propaganda. Fits a narrative, the Germans were not believed when they discovered Katyn. Just because we don't like them does not mean all their news is propaganda.
Roger.. stop being a leftie wimp and blaming it on your comp... You of all people should know..Even I knew that... therefore you are an ignorant tosser..Sent From North Italy.
Comments
Mildly surprised the Conservatives themselves have gone for a Putin/Klass Vs Cameron/Miliband comparison, but it might work.
Mocking Miliband is in danger of becoming a popular pastime. Imagine him facing up to ISIS, the Ukraine situation, a belligerent China sending tanks to Hong Kong and so on. Contemplating that sort of scenario will not make people likelier to vote Miliband.
It risks becoming a story if Ed makes a big point of talking about higher taxes on the rich and others point out the possible hypocrisy of his stance. All Labour leaders are vulnerable to that charge - unless you're of the Blair/Mandelson ilk. And Labour themselves have laid the groundwork for it by talking about tax cuts for Cameron's friends and asking how much he benefited from IHT changes. So they shouldn't complain if the same is done to them.
But that's not what I meant. It's about how people come across, the image they project. Miliband's problem is that it's bloody awkward, and occasionally worthy of mockery [I do sympathise with him. As I've mentioned before, I photograph almost as badly, albeit as a psychopath rather than a berk].
It's not Labour that are conflating tax planning with tax avoidance, it's morons who want to conflate ISAs with complicated multi-entity offshore schemes in an effort to criticise Ed/Labour that are doing the conflation.
I can't be arsed faffing around, tying up money with bookies on odds on favourites this far out. I'll get the same return as the 1/5 bet by laying off ^ at 2.36, which I may do shortly.
On these extra special occasions I always think of Mutleys laugh the dog of "dirty" Dick Dastardly of whacky races. Nothing else quite sums it up really?
They will inquestionably be on the receiving end of intimidation. It's the nature of the beast in the Islamic Republic of TH.
I thought that the LD decline would follow the usual gradual pattern of scattering to all directions.
Nevertheless, 5% is where UNS catches up with the LD's, if they score 5% or less then they will get less than 10 seats.
I expect Nick Clegg not to be re-elected in his seat if they get 5% or less, especially if the collapse is towards the Tories.
As the English invade and gentrify the voting patterns will change.
Is Myleen Klass the leader of the "sinister cabal of powerful interests" that POEWAS reckons are out to get him?
If not then who? Or is it Whom?.
Sadly I have to agree with you. I don't support EdM, of course. Osborne has regularly said the same and money has been set aside to fight the abuse of people taking the rest of us for a ride.
well done...
https://twitter.com/search?f=realtime&q=myleene klass&src=typd
"Ed Miliband has hit back at Myleene Klass after she launched a stinging attack on the mansion tax.
In a sarcastic reference to Miss Klass’s most successful pop hit with her former band ‘Hear'Say,’ Mr Miliband said it was “Pure and Simple” that “our NHS needs a mansion tax."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11238204/Mansion-tax-is-Pure-and-Simple-Ed-Miliband-hits-back-at-Myleene-Klass.html
All back on the bus. Strike that up for a win for Ed. Now for that little wimp Putin.
Churchill once said his best comeback lines were thought of days before hand.
.......with Ed its days after.
#saveEd#WeloveEd
I was born and brought up nearby, live a few miles down the road and visit the area regularly. You have to take sensible precautions, as you would in most inner City areas, but Aleppo it certainly is not.
Happy to take you for a drink in the Crown if you disagree.
http://www.viewlondon.co.uk/pubsandbars/the-crown-review-29182.html
Any views on Lion cuts for Maine Coons?
TGOHF - not sure about Edinburgh. I think the only seat there where the Tories were second last time was Edinburgh South West - and that's Darling's seat.
TSE though would be in a dilemma, if this poll is true then Clegg would lose Sheffield Hallam, if it's an outlier then the Tories are not in the lead with Opinium, a difficult choice for him.
Timothy @TimothyCourt38
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@KlassMyleene you stupid rich whore.
11:30 AM - 18 Nov 2014
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http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/reading-entrails-few-polling.html
Sorry, Peter, I was not claiming Tower Hamlets as worse than any other area of London in terms of crime etc, merely that it's politics is - to say the least - dodgy. The mayor has cronies with a siege mentality.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/04/an-afternoon-on-the-stump-with-lutfur-rahman/
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/17/putin-claims-west-provoking-russia-new-cold-war-spies-deported
http://armamentresearch.com/Uploads/Research Report No. 3 - Raising Red Flags.pdf
Milliband stood up to the Americans over Syria whereas Cameron has consistently sacrificed our interests to the Americans, cheerleading wars in Iraq, Libya and Syria as well as US efforts to destabilise the Ukraine and isolate Russia.
I am surprised Miliband hasn't played his hand on the Syria vote better, its been the one real redeeming feature of his time as Labour leader.
Ukip to win Rochester by FIFTY points
http://www.maidstoneandmedwaynews.co.uk/xx/story-24552581-detail/story.html
The average life expectancy for men in Russia is 65
25% of men die before 55.
Most of these deaths are down to alcohol. And most of these drinkers are smokers.
You you really want Putin to run the UK?
Russia is evaporating away and its major source of revenue has seen its price fall by getting on for 30% in just a few months.
Falling energy revenue, shrinking & ailing population, smaller workforce, fewer consumers. You add it up. Hmm... kippers can't add up - no wonder Putin is their hero.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/millionaire-myleene-klass-blasted-being-4646847
These were the kind of gotchas which make IHT such a pernicious tax (although that particular one was removed in 2009).
It falls mostly on the unworldy, the confused, the ill, and the secretive who are fearful of solicitors and their bills...
We were, at one time, potentially on the hook for around £250k but thankfully the final bill was zero.
QTWTAI- P- N. But it is a good way to make Labour realise the depths to which they have sunk in their Fiefdom.
Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirk. If Michael Moore holds on it will be a miracle.
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine. The only risk I see for the Tories here is the SNP coming from behind but the area voted strongly no.
Dumfries & Galloway: bit of an ask but possible on a bad Labour performance.
Edinburgh SW: newly in the frame since Darling stood down. Only on a very bad night for Labour.
Fife NE. I think the Lib Dems will lose this but probably not to the tories.
Argyll & Bute: ditto.
Ayr Carrick & Cumnock. Nah, this is getting ridiculous.
A Ukip insider told MMN: "The Tories and Labour have flooded this place with so-called big hitters and only succeeded in p******* people off.
Quite agree. I hope UKIP smash it out the park in Rochester on Thursday.
Alternative view from the rest of the media
"Singer Myleene Klass went 'full Paxman' on the Labour leader during a TV debate in a stunning annihilation of his mansion tax policies"
Oh dear.
I've put the numbers in electoral calculus to see the result for the LD, at 5% they get 7 seats, but when I put the same numbers for the other parties and LD's at 4% they get 0 seats.
Ironically with the LD's at 4%, UKIP get Sheffield Hallam, according to electoral calculus.
The more you tighten your grip, the more Scottish seats will slip through your fingers.
By trying to create a perpetual fiefdom Labour have done themselves and their nation long term harm. Morons. In broad terms, it's comparable to the rampant idiocy of the Fourth Crusade, or the baffling complacency of those who have seen what devolution has done to the UK and think that carving up England is a good idea.
Klass has been an amateur astronomer for most of her life,[68] having been taught the basics by her father. She was one of only a handful of celebrities, engineers and scientists who were at the UK National Space Centre control centre for the touch-down of the UK Mars probe Beagle 2 in the early morning of Christmas Day 2003. Since then she has been a keen supporter of the UK's work in the European space programme.[69] In March 2006, Klass publicly criticised the proposed closure of the London Planetarium and explained on television how to view Venus in the early morning. She also appeared on Channel 4's Richard & Judy to discuss the book Moondust, which follows the lives of the first men on the moon, and in 2007 attended the televised party on BBC One, held at the home of Patrick Moore in Selsey to mark the 50th anniversary of Moore's monthly programme, The Sky at Night. Klass is now studying astronomy with the Open University.[70]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myleene_Klass
If they did, it'd be very bad for Cameron.
"Shall we all have whip round for the poor souls with £2million houses.
Maybe we could release a charity single."
Do They Know it's Christmas Time in Cheyney Walk?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/ebola/11236278/Why-Adele-was-right-to-ignore-Bob-Geldof-and-Band-Aid.html
Rother Valley is their best chance round these parts I think.
You'll need a few bob if you want to move in there these days though, and the colour of the local politics is changing out of all recognition. I was renting near Bethnal Green Station during the last GE and will never forget answering the door to a gaggle of Muslims straight out of central casting - beards, long flowing robes, white hats, heavy accents, and terribly polite. Turned out they were canvassing for the Conservatives.
Somehow I found it all very reassuring.
This will make it that much more difficult to persuade the elderly and difficult to take the advice they desperately need to follow as they get older. Which will make the situation you describe even worse. The 2009 change was a huge improvement.
"Amusing though the thought may be, Kent, I can't let that pass, even if only because there might be one idiot out there who thinks there is some truth in it.
I was born and brought up nearby, live a few miles down the road and visit the area regularly. You have to take sensible precautions, as you would in most inner City areas, but Aleppo it certainly is not.
Happy to take you for a drink in the Crown if you disagree.
http://www.viewlondon.co.uk/pubsandbars/the-crown-review-29182.html<"
One of the arguments being used by those - i.e. the losing Labour party candidate - challenging the mayoral result in the courts is that voters were being intimidated.
Intimidation of voters, if true, is very serious. It goes to the heart of our electoral system.
It is disgraceful of Livingstone to support intimidation of officers (making the lives of public servants doing a job in the public sector "intolerable") brought in legitimately to ensure that the authority behaves lawfully with taxpayers' money (not brought in to overthrow the Mayor), especially when that Mayor is from a different party - and his supporters have used homophobic abuse against Labour councillors and when it is the Labour candidate who is challenging the election, partly on the grounds of intimidation.
He should be expelled from the Labour party for supporting a candidate from a rival party.
There again, Livingstone had his own difficulties with public monies being handed out to groups with little scrutiny and for unclear purposes and with little or no audit trail as to where the money went so it is no surprise to see him supporting a man accused of doing the same thing.
- Those renting a dwelling valued over £2m will have it incident on them (the owner will pass it through, doubtless)
- The vast majority of the c.125,000-150,000 dwellings valued over £2m will have their value primarily based on location (number derived from "0.5% of homes" multiplied by c. 25million to 30million homes in the UK). The vast majority of these will be in London.
- It does smack of a little unfairness for a Government to be key in promoting scarcity of homes in desired locations (no-one's willing to reform the not-fit-for-purpose Green Belt legislation) and then imposing a tax on the value that comes out of that partly-artificial scarcuty
- Are any social housing units in these scarce/desirable areas? Given that a regular semi-detached 4 bedroomed house can trigger the tax in some areas, will the tax be levied on social housing tenants who fall in such areas?
Beer, keyboard etc.....
Difference is Putin pretends to have a meeting with Dave. He'd regard Ed as so pathetic he probably wouldn't even bother.
The hard left and followers of the religion of peace are exempt from normal laws.
Though not so much in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross ta very much.
So not so much a rich person moaning about having to pay more tax but more a rich person moaning that other richer people might have to pay more.
Not read the thread yet so presume this has been covered?
Berwickshier&c and Kincardine&c should be possible. Others seem like longer shots, perhaps Dumfries. NE Fife and Aberdeenshire W are probably too long a shot, although it depends on the Indy referendum and how the Tartan Tory vote splits.An Edinburgh seat also looks a seat too far.
WTF didn't Ed prepare rebuttals for the interview, did it not occur to him that a millionaire former pop starette living in an expensive house might have negative views on the mansion tax?, a tax that the rest of us with houses worth about £250k actually support and if anything think is too timid; as it is high time removal of the free ride such people have had since the Tories abolished domestic rates.
What we actually need is a land value tax of 1% of the value of any land owned with no exemptions (other than perhaps certain charities like the national trust). That would break up the big estates, tax the multinationals heavily and stop pensioners bed blocking family houses.
I was responding to the insinuation that somehow the area was not safe. In fairness, I think Kent has accepted that to be a misrepresentation.
As for electoral fraud of any kind, never mind intimidation, it is to be deplored wherever it arises. All power to those who expose it.
In my defence, may I state that I voted for Boris ahead of Ken - only the second time in my life I have voted for a Conservative. Why? Well of course I have no proof that Ken is less pure and white than the driven snow, but I have always had my suspicions..... ;-)
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2014/11/18/what-ed-miliband-should-have-said-to-myleene-klass/#.VGuFYUajuSo.twitter
Highlights Ed's inability to think on his feet, or refute Myleene's Klass's point. Generalities are not enough, though Labour ought to bear in mind that the sums involved won't help run The NHS for very long.
But even his own side recognise an own goal when they see it.
"Roger..Of course it is Cheyne Walk..not Cheney.. ignorant tosser.."
Sorry but at a cafe in Beaulieu using an ipad with a mind of it's own. Will beat it around the head as soon as I've finished.
Re. Opinium- has it been properly confirmed? It's unusual Opinium didn't mention VI in their write up.
So opinion is divided, I personally think it's an outlier and the good thing is we can wait till Saturday evening when the next Opinium poll should be due.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30104972
Buy to letters are a very small amount of the electorate owning huge value immovable assets which can be milked by the government for tax, they are turkeys approaching Christmas, and not before time.
Regarding this whole Klass business, I thought she looked good making her points, it was delivered pretty well, but even some moderate thought on it made me question her water comparison for example. It really didn't feel like has genuinely been taken to task by someone unexpected, just that he hadn't expected the attempt so much that he didn't defend a popular policy very well. Perhaps you're right, although in that case I do wonder how any party is supposed to properly oppose UKIP, or even if they can - don't send people in in force, as many Tories would clearly have no problem with as many of them want UKIP to do well at their expense, and you're exposing your belly to UKIP. Send people in force and you annoy people and, as they already didn't like you, you reinforce why they don't like you.
No doubt Scott P would be along to claim it was a good result for the Conservatives.
@LabourList gives a better rebuttal to @KlassMyleene than @Ed_Miliband. That's something I never expected to write.
http://bit.ly/1qSFmwT
How many times will they call wolf?
Is this the second, third, nth time that (up to) hundreds of Russian tanks are in Ukraine. Leads the news cycle for a couple of days. Then nothing. Presumably because they are special tanks that cannot be photographed, even from the air. Although US satellites have no problems with these tanks on the Russian side of the border.
All items from Washington/Kiev are treated as gospel. Anything from Moscow is propaganda. Fits a narrative, the Germans were not believed when they discovered Katyn. Just because we don't like them does not mean all their news is propaganda.
New Opinium poll has CON in lead with the LDs down 4 to 5%
Con 34 (+5), Lab 33 (+1) LD 5 (-4) UKIP 18 (-1)