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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some relief for LAB/Ed with ComRes online as lead moves up
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some relief for LAB/Ed with ComRes online as lead moves up to 4%
The findings from the poll that I’ve highlighted in the chart are on perceptions of Dave which I think get to the heart of the challenges for both leaders. People can’t imagine Ed at Number 10 while Dave is not seen as someone who stand up for working people. Also the perception is that a CON government will cut a lot more than a LAB one.
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Personally, I´d rather trust the Tooth Fairy.
They overstated the Lab-Tory gap by 5.5 at the Euros.
If there were a General Election / UK General Election (for Scotland) tomorrow, would you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, UKIP or for some other party?
http://comres.co.uk/polls/SM_IoS_Voting_Intention_tables_November_2014.pdf
If you accept the 300k per year emigration we are back to 52 million versus 62 million.
That's ten million. Forget the replacement rate, it's negative or if it's not today it has been for decades past.
Now I'm using your 2010 census figure, one known to be inaccurate. This leads to one wondering why the UK Govt doesn't want an accurate population figure.
Published numbers by supermarkets and utility providers have estimated the current UK population somewhere between 70-80 million. You might disagree with those numbers but they are not mine.
That's tens of millions without having to exaggerate anything using the best numbers available.
It was that they hysterically over estimated UKIP and misunderestimated the Tories.
They overstated the kippers by 5.5, agreed.
Miliband wins as Mr Bean (Atkinson) on 27%.
As someone here once said. Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister.
E+W : 22%
Scotland: 10%
Ignore previous.
"We have decided to include UKIP as a prompted option in both our telephone and online polling, alongside the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties.
The rise in support for UKIP means that it has outpolled the (prompted) Liberal Democrats in every ComRes poll since February 2013. In our continuing drive for accuracy, we constantly review our methodology and test it. Last month we published an experiment using a split sample (prompted and unprompted).
We have also analysed other data, as a result of which we have adjusted weights and filters based on past voting behaviour, party identification and current voting intention. We will continue to review our methodology regularly."
http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/1319/sunday-mirror-independent-on-sunday-november-2014-poll.htm
Miliband is converting the undecideds.
I can imagine Ed Miliband as Prime Minister:
Agree 20% (-5), Disagree 59% (+6), Don't knows 21% (-1)
Andrew Hawkins @Andrew_ComRes now13 seconds ago
44% of 2010 Labour voters 'can imagine Ed M as PM' (ComRes/IoS/S Mirror)
That is going to hurt. Will the revolver be handed to Ed by a Scot?
"ComRes’s press release suggests they have also tweaked their weightings this month. I’ll update with details once they are confirmed, but looking through the tables nothing jumps out at me so it is probably relatively minor."
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9063
"Survation are currently recruiting for a Junior Data & Statistics Analyst for our busy and growing research department."
http://survation.com/survation-are-recruiting-a-junior-data-statistics-analyst/
Now I've given him an answer he's done a runner.
You know the three other pollsters who this week have the Tories ahead.
I filled in a yougov earlier this week which was such an obvious push poll n behalf of Gatwick, it was unbelievable.
'the reputable ones don't but there aren't many of those'
“I hear it said by eminent Europeans that freedom of movement is sacrosanct. It is one of the four freedoms set out in the founding Treaty. The argument is that if we tamper with freedom of movement, the other freedoms will fall. I understand that view but it has a flaw. Twenty five years after the Single European Act, the other founding freedoms are not fully honoured by the EU. Not one of them. If freedom of movement is immutable, when will member states complete the Single Market? When will they end closed shops and protectionism, and open their markets to British services – especially our professional services? When will they fully integrate capital markets? Or the energy market? Or digital? Need I go on? If these had been implemented in full, then Britain’s case on free movement would be weakened. But they are not.”
Cameron mustn't back down on this. His office has floated a strong option of a points system, and a weak option of an emergency brake, and says they'll release proposals by the end of the year. If this turns out to be another "we will not let matters rest there" like the fiasco in response to the Lisbon Treaty, then Cameron really will be selling out the British people for no good reason. We pay for a tenth of the EU budget, so we should have leverage. If the EU refuses it will be only out of pure obstinacy in refusing the UK's concerns. Cameron can not back down purely because the other nations are pig-headed.
Tumbleweed. . . . .
http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2014/11/young-dutch-turks-radical-views-worry-mps-call-for-more-research.php/
Was Ed M right to give money to the street beggar? 38% yes 29% no (ComRes/IoS/SMirror)
http://i.imgur.com/uGlrLO2.png
Was Ed Miliband right to give a 2p coin to the street beggar?
"It is the statistic that dare not speak its name, though eventually it must. It has huge ramifications for the civil and political life of this country, the health of the equity markets and, most immediately, the residential property market. So don't forget you read it here first: the population of the UK is presently somewhere between 77 and 80 million."
and
My sources for the above statement are good, but scared of admitting the truth for fear of incurring the wrath of Whitehall. It's like the best way of monitoring illegal drug consumption: forget the pious statements from ministers – the foolproof method is to sample our water and the effluent in it. That's easily the best way of monitoring what the nation has been consuming.
and
I have a second, respectable, source. A major, non-commercial agricultural institution reckons there are 77 million of us in the UK. Again, its reckoning is based on what we eat.
That faint background noise you're hearing as you read this is the sound of everyone slithering off the record. Why? In political terms, standing behind these figures would be to toss a hand grenade into a vat of gasoline. People would be hounded out of a job for scaremongering.
and
If the true numbers were revealed, the Little Englanders and xenophobes would come out in force about the evils of immigration. But that's what made America great in the 19th century, and it's a driving force of our economy right now. It's also anti-inflationary.
David Buik, a money manager with broker BGC Partners, was talking of "one million Eastern Europeans unaccounted for in London" on television last week. I suspect he's right if somewhat conservative in his estimate. How many do you see working in the construction industry and waiting at tables?
So my numbers are based on more than 'ludicrous assertion' while your argument is nothing but assertion and bile.
Perhaps the impact of prompting is overstated, if it was just a UKIP thing then the other parties wouldn't have scored almost the exact same percentages.
I'm one to campaign against mass immigration more than anything, but the Office for National Statistics - which is independent from government - has far more data at it's disposal to calculate these things than any private company looking through the lens of one industry.
Bet they regret not having nationality based on jus sanguinis.
Were they imported into NL to provide vote fodder for the PvdA?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/28/china-summit-lse-eu-idUSL5N0SN5FG20141028
Britain leaving the European Union (EU) would not harm London's ability to compete as a global financial centre, but could threaten the bloc's ability to attract investors, the chief executive of the London Stock Exchange said on Tuesday.
I haven't seen a politician buying trainers, ever, not in any country in the world.
Every time someone says "we have to stay in the EU because the City will be replaced by Frankfurt blah blah blah" you can point at that article.
I haven't.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1226069/At-Gordon-Brown-runs-election-early-morning-jog-round-park.html
Did he ever repeat the stunt?
It's about as rare as a Cameron on a bicycle (with limo following behind)
Tory cabinet source says Ukip will win and the Conservative party’s best hope is to ‘keep defeat to single digits’
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/15/rochester-strood-ukip-conservatives-admit-defeat
Eric Lowes, who has worked the High Street for more than 12 years, failed to recognise Nick Clegg when the politician approached him for some shopping advice on Saturday.
The 65-year-old was doing his rounds when Mr Clegg asked him where was best to buy sports gear.
Mr Lowes said: "A man said he wanted to buy a ping-pong ball and some trainers for his son".
Read more: http://www.courier.co.uk/Eric-fails-recognise-Nick-Clegg-street/story-12748067-detail/story.html#ixzz3JAnGgd4w
Was Jimmy Carter the first one who started the presidential jogging tradition?
A lot of voters seem intent on showing the conservatives a "single digit"?
Are there any Tories who don't?
Looking at turnout, the weather in Rochester looks to be clear on Thursday, temperature around 10 degrees with a southern wind.
"Our vote is holding up OK. We are at 30%, maybe even 33%. It is not bad. Ukip are in the 40s. But Labour have absolutely capitulated and collapsed in a seat that they held until 2010. There are at least as many questions for Ed Miliband as for us. We are fairly relaxed about the whole thing, as I think it is priced in at this stage"
Imagine a UKIP win by 40-35, which is conceivable, but Labour on 15 or so.
Ken Clarke?
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/224285-rand-paul-may-get-bill-mahers-vote
He came out good.
Goodnight.
ComRes 15 December 2012: Con 28%, Lab 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2013
I can understand why they wouldn't want to agree with Socrates, as he's a kipper and we've an election against them this week, but what John Major's saying is surely spot on.
Or if not, why not?
LAB - 33% (+1)
CON - 31% (-2)
UKIP - 18% (+3)
LDEM - 7% (-1)
GRN - 5% (-1)
A 2 point lead for Labour and UKIP looking high for the weekend.
Goodnight.
20000 happy comrades will rejoice as they are freed from wage slavery of the evil Mike Ashley and live a life of freedom on the state.
What's your opinion on zero hours contracts, given that they're used by your party?
Do you think they're bad, and so your party is also bad?
Do you think they're ok, so your leader is wrong?
Or do you have a third way of explaining it, such as you think they're bad but your party can be exempted in some way, so that you can continue to cling to your extremely shaky looking principles?
Miliband bounce back in YouGov poll tonight for Sunday Times. Labour leads 33-30.
"...bearing in mind there's no census anymore and people were not required to complete the last one and didn't in large numbers....Now I'm using your 2010 census figure, one known to be inaccurate. This leads to one wondering why the UK Govt doesn't want an accurate population figure...published numbers by supermarkets and utility providers have estimated the current UK population somewhere between 70-80 million"
This paragraph contains many misapprehensions. Dealing with them requires more than one post, so I'll spread this response over several posts. So let's start...