I'll admit I was expecting to win and tried to load the terms up in my favour... Brent rather than WTI due to the "spread", 50 GBP rather than 80 USD as I thought GBP might tank a bit from where it was, year end rather than anytime so the bet can "come back" if it is underwater (Like it is now). If I lose then you've called the market remarkably well.
Hmmm,
Junior helped! Once the US became an exporter then supply must be greater than demand.
Other events that have become known:
# As we approach 2015 we should be entering a global Anglo-Saxon slow-down (with Europe following thereafter), # "China-Strong" sympathisers tend not to be au-fiat with economics. China will see a Celtic-Tiger adjustment as debt unwinds, # QE is being unwound in the US (and, wrongly I thought, in the UK), # The Euro-Zone fails to address structural imbalances. # Mid-East Oil producers are increasing output.
Events I assumed known that have failed:
# Carney would push Sterling up as the economy grows. Why he is focused on six-month inflation forecast as-opposed-to, say, eighteen or twenty-four is his enigma.
Events I could not predict:
# Putin being a total [MODERATED]. To be fair he fecked his own team first and is likely to lose the Amur region in the next few decades. # ISIS/Jihadi/UK-drug-dealers being expansionist dealers of Mesopotamian oil (via Sunni-Islamist Turkey).
Like Wee-Timmy my bet was phrased as a one-snapshot-in-a-year-win: You correctly fixed a single-point-in-time. You also accepted my £50/evens and did not pontificate like a certain 'techie' I could name....
He helpfully omits the polling that shows Cam more popular than the party. Tim is deep in the bubble.
That doesn't make Cameron a good leader. Conservative support hasn't really budged from 33% or thereabouts since 1997. Fortunately, Labour support has fallen away over that period.
What would Con support be with David Davis in charge - 19% ?
NickPalmer, Noted that you think you will win next time and I agree. But, in the past you have said that voters opinions were largely settled in your canvassing and had made their minds up on the GE. I am trying to square that with the significant loss of about 1/4 of the Labour supporters in the past 12 months or so. Have you not seen any significant drop in Lab support? Or does your canvassing show significant drops for both of the main parties?
We're becoming a nation of victims. It used to just be Liverpudlians but it's spread to the rest of the country. I would date it from aftermath of Diana's car crash and it's just got worse.
Agree - and the two political parties seeing most growth play victim hood like a violin - sometimes it's difficult to tell their arguments apart - if only we weren't in the EU//UK everything ŵoukd be so much better and it's all someone else's fault.........
"Let us run Britain because we hate it so much"
That's Labour
"Let us run Britain because we hate it so much" Also the Lib Dems view.
Looks like it was a seat held, compared to the results in 2014? Last night's result, with (changes on May 2014) [changes on May 2010], was:
Liberal Democrat 36% (-7) [-14] Labour 31% (+1) [+18] Conservative 24% (+8) [-5] Green 9% (-2) [+1]
Note that UKIP stood a candidate in the ward in 2010, but not in either of the 2014 elections.
A very comfortable Labour gain in Cambridge in 2015 if this ward is in any way representative - which it might be, even though not in the constituency!
@montie@ConHome a thoughtful piece, Tim. As always. Much to mull over
Is he thinking of re ratting?
Not until next March, when his re-ratting would cause maximum damage ahead of the election. "I have now had six months to see UKIP from the inside. I had thought they were well intentioned people, with an alternative vision for Britain. I was very wrong on both counts...."
Obviously were he to do that, he would be a patriotic principled chap worthy of praise.
I second that emotion
There's alot of wishful thinking on this site sometimes.
Understatement of the century!!!
If UKIP can't even get the founder of UKIPhome to join them then really, they must be toxic.
Yup, the polling backs that up.
UKIP are the most extreme, least fit to govern party with candidates more likely to hold racist/offensive views
Mr Montgomerie said "there’s more in UKIP that I like than I dislike".
The 24 October Opinium has 31% of voters ready to vote UKIP if they thought it could win in their constituency.
@montie@ConHome a thoughtful piece, Tim. As always. Much to mull over
Is he thinking of re ratting?
Not until next March, when his re-ratting would cause maximum damage ahead of the election. "I have now had six months to see UKIP from the inside. I had thought they were well intentioned people, with an alternative vision for Britain. I was very wrong on both counts...."
Obviously were he to do that, he would be a patriotic principled chap worthy of praise.
I second that emotion
There's alot of wishful thinking on this site sometimes.
Conservatives the value in Rochester at 6/4, 7/4, 2/1, 9/4, 5/2, 11/4, 3/1,10/3, 7/2 etc etc
"I told Mike to lay UKIP, it's what I have been doing...." etc etc
The 13% strategy replaces the 35% one? " Journalists and bankers are trusted to tell the truth by only 21 per cent of people, while estate agents get 24. "
NickPalmer, Noted that you think you will win next time and I agree. But, in the past you have said that voters opinions were largely settled in your canvassing and had made their minds up on the GE. I am trying to square that with the significant loss of about 1/4 of the Labour supporters in the past 12 months or so. Have you not seen any significant drop in Lab support? Or does your canvassing show significant drops for both of the main parties?
People being polite/wanting him to leave them alone.
If UKIP can't even get the founder of UKIPhome to join them then really, they must be toxic.
I'm just trying to wrap my head around this statement. The fact that founder of the biggest grassroots Conservative website has to write a column saying why he's not defecting, despite much he admires in UKIP, is somehow evidence that UKIP are doing a bad job?
Rather than constantly going on about how horrible UKIP are, perhaps Conservatives would do a better job if they considered why so much of their traditional support now prefers UKIP to the Tories that you need to refer to your main grassroots website as "UKIPHome"?
Genuine question: Why are you frustrated with Redward? Do you still actually want Labour to win? (and if Yes why?)
OT is it only me who sees Redward and thinks of John Redwood?
Not sure I've ever confused the two! - but now you've put the homophone in my mind. So what's the best nickname for him then? Microband? Miliblob? Redward? Red Ed? The Gimp? Wallace?
@montie@ConHome a thoughtful piece, Tim. As always. Much to mull over
Is he thinking of re ratting?
Not until next March, when his re-ratting would cause maximum damage ahead of the election. "I have now had six months to see UKIP from the inside. I had thought they were well intentioned people, with an alternative vision for Britain. I was very wrong on both counts...."
Obviously were he to do that, he would be a patriotic principled chap worthy of praise.
I second that emotion
There's alot of wishful thinking on this site sometimes.
Understatement of the century!!!
If UKIP can't even get the founder of UKIPhome to join them then really, they must be toxic.
Yup, the polling backs that up.
UKIP are the most extreme, least fit to govern party with candidates more likely to hold racist/offensive views
Given that you are a supporter of a party that doesn't feel a national investigation for tens of thousands of racist child rapes is necessary, I think you lack credibility here.
Genuine question: Why are you frustrated with Redward? Do you still actually want Labour to win? (and if Yes why?)
OT is it only me who sees Redward and thinks of John Redwood?
Not sure I've ever confused the two! - but now you've put the homophone in my mind. So what's the best nickname for him then? Microband? Miliblob? Redward? Red Ed? The Gimp? Wallace?
@montie@ConHome a thoughtful piece, Tim. As always. Much to mull over
Is he thinking of re ratting?
Not until next March, when his re-ratting would cause maximum damage ahead of the election. "I have now had six months to see UKIP from the inside. I had thought they were well intentioned people, with an alternative vision for Britain. I was very wrong on both counts...."
Obviously were he to do that, he would be a patriotic principled chap worthy of praise.
I second that emotion
There's alot of wishful thinking on this site sometimes.
Understatement of the century!!!
If UKIP can't even get the founder of UKIPhome to join them then really, they must be toxic.
Yup, the polling backs that up.
UKIP are the most extreme, least fit to govern party with candidates more likely to hold racist/offensive views
Given that you are a supporter of a party that doesn't feel a national investigation for tens of thousands of racist child rapes is necessary, I think you lack credibility here.
So you ignore the polling, that's fine by me.
Considering you're a supporter of a party that has been condemned by the victims and their parents for exploiting the tragedy, you're the one who lacks credibility.
He helpfully omits the polling that shows Cam more popular than the party. Tim is deep in the bubble.
That doesn't make Cameron a good leader. Conservative support hasn't really budged from 33% or thereabouts since 1997. Fortunately, Labour support has fallen away over that period.
What would Con support be with David Davis in charge - 19% ?
Maybe knock off 3 points that would have gone to the Lib Dems and add 10 points from UKIP. I'd guess around 40%?
The more snide comments like that we read the more CON/UKIP waverers are going to think fsck it, and vote UKIP...
You're thinking of making weird Ed PM because some Tory posters on a blog are a bit snide? It's a view I suppose...
Or.
The Conservative Party is thinking of making Ed PM, because they can't be civil to the people that have been turning out for them for years, because they suddenly have this fantastic notion that if they witter a few green nostrums and burn a few sacred cows of the shire tories, the Guardian Readers will kick off their sandals and come and vote Tory.
Considering you're a supporter of a party that has been condemned by the victims and their parents for exploiting the tragedy, you're the one who lacks credibility.
What percentage of the tens of thousands of victims are you referring to?
I'm very glad a party that focuses on principle rather than polling is ramping up its share of the vote. They wouldn't do something like point to the polls to justify handing over ancient British protections for the accused to the European Union.
What if the EU decides, in its economic apocalypse, to force Kate Middleton to go on the game? Might we leave then, Mr Miliband?
IIUC Labour's position is still to have a referendum on large transfers of sovereignty and the EU don't currently have the authority to do this, so the assumption here would be that Britain has held a referendum on letting the EU make Kate Middleton go on the game, and the British voted "yes". I don't see why the UK would leave the EU over this since they were clearly in agreement with it, although Kate Middleton might want to leave the UK.
The more snide comments like that we read the more CON/UKIP waverers are going to think fsck it, and vote UKIP...
You're thinking of making weird Ed PM because some Tory posters on a blog are a bit snide? It's a view I suppose...
Or.
The Conservative Party is thinking of making Ed PM, because they can't be civil to the people that have been turning out for them for years, because they suddenly have this fantastic notion that if they witter a few green nostrums and burn a few sacred cows of the shire tories, the Guardian Readers will kick off their sandals and come and vote Tory.
The Conservative party won't be in the polling booth with you, urging you to vote for UKIP. It'll be entirely up to you if you decide to help weird Ed become PM because you can't brush off some snide comments
Considering you're a supporter of a party that has been condemned by the victims and their parents for exploiting the tragedy, you're the one who lacks credibility.
What percentage of the tens of thousands of victims are you referring to?
I'm very glad a party that focuses on principle rather than polling is ramping up its share of the vote. They wouldn't do something like point to the polls to justify handing over ancient British protections for the accused to the European Union.
As I keep on pointing on, the polling shows, UKIP supporters have a negative impression of Asian men not shared by the public at large.
That's why the good people of South Yorkshire rejected UKIP.
What if the EU decides, in its economic apocalypse, to force Kate Middleton to go on the game? Might we leave then, Mr Miliband?
IIUC Labour's position is still to have a referendum on large transfers of sovereignty and the EU don't currently have the authority to do this, so the assumption here would be that Britain has held a referendum on letting the EU make Kate Middleton go on the game, and the British voted "yes". I don't see why the UK would leave the EU over this since they were clearly in agreement with it, although Kate Middleton might want to leave the UK.
Your faith in the Labour party on EU plebiscites is touching.
@montie@ConHome a thoughtful piece, Tim. As always. Much to mull over
Is he thinking of re ratting?
Not until next March, when his re-ratting would cause maximum damage ahead of the election. "I have now had six months to see UKIP from the inside. I had thought they were well intentioned people, with an alternative vision for Britain. I was very wrong on both counts...."
Obviously were he to do that, he would be a patriotic principled chap worthy of praise.
I second that emotion
There's alot of wishful thinking on this site sometimes.
Understatement of the century!!!
If UKIP can't even get the founder of UKIPhome to join them then really, they must be toxic.
Yup, the polling backs that up.
UKIP are the most extreme, least fit to govern party with candidates more likely to hold racist/offensive views
Yougov
ABC1 (C2DE) Voting intentions
TORIES 35% (29%) LABOUR 33% (37%) UKIP 12% (20%) LIBDEMS 9% (6%) GREENS 7% (4%) SNP / PC 4% (4%)
The more snide comments like that we read the more CON/UKIP waverers are going to think fsck it, and vote UKIP...
You're thinking of making weird Ed PM because some Tory posters on a blog are a bit snide? It's a view I suppose...
Or.
The Conservative Party is thinking of making Ed PM, because they can't be civil to the people that have been turning out for them for years, because they suddenly have this fantastic notion that if they witter a few green nostrums and burn a few sacred cows of the shire tories, the Guardian Readers will kick off their sandals and come and vote Tory.
It has been a very long time since the Conservatives wittered any Green nostrums - which is one of many measures of the success UKIP have had in changing the political weather.
What if the EU decides, in its economic apocalypse, to force Kate Middleton to go on the game? Might we leave then, Mr Miliband?
IIUC Labour's position is still to have a referendum on large transfers of sovereignty and the EU don't currently have the authority to do this, so the assumption here would be that Britain has held a referendum on letting the EU make Kate Middleton go on the game, and the British voted "yes". I don't see why the UK would leave the EU over this since they were clearly in agreement with it, although Kate Middleton might want to leave the UK.
Your faith in the Labour party on EU plebiscites is touching.
Remember how shamefully they acted over Lisbon
Rather reminiscent of how the Conservatives acted on promising referenda for "significant transfers of powers", and then not even giving parliament a vote on the EAW.
Genuine question: Why are you frustrated with Redward? Do you still actually want Labour to win? (and if Yes why?)
OT is it only me who sees Redward and thinks of John Redwood?
Not sure I've ever confused the two! - but now you've put the homophone in my mind. So what's the best nickname for him then? Microband? Miliblob? Redward? Red Ed? The Gimp? Wallace?
The more snide comments like that we read the more CON/UKIP waverers are going to think fsck it, and vote UKIP...
You're thinking of making weird Ed PM because some Tory posters on a blog are a bit snide? It's a view I suppose...
Or.
The Conservative Party is thinking of making Ed PM, because they can't be civil to the people that have been turning out for them for years, because they suddenly have this fantastic notion that if they witter a few green nostrums and burn a few sacred cows of the shire tories, the Guardian Readers will kick off their sandals and come and vote Tory.
The Conservative party won't be in the polling booth with you, urging you to vote for UKIP. It'll be entirely up to you if you decide to help weird Ed become PM because you can't brush off some snide comments
Living as I do in a seat with a 15,000 Tory majority I think they are quite safe, it would only be considered "sending a message" ;-)
What if the EU decides, in its economic apocalypse, to force Kate Middleton to go on the game? Might we leave then, Mr Miliband?
IIUC Labour's position is still to have a referendum on large transfers of sovereignty and the EU don't currently have the authority to do this, so the assumption here would be that Britain has held a referendum on letting the EU make Kate Middleton go on the game, and the British voted "yes". I don't see why the UK would leave the EU over this since they were clearly in agreement with it, although Kate Middleton might want to leave the UK.
Your faith in the Labour party on EU plebiscites is touching.
Remember how shamefully they acted over Lisbon
Rather reminiscent of how the Conservatives acted on promising referenda for "significant transfers of powers", and then not even giving parliament a vote on the EAW.
When even the likes of Sir Bill Cash says the referendum lock didn't apply on Monday, you know you're on shaky ground with that.
Genuine question: Why are you frustrated with Redward? Do you still actually want Labour to win? (and if Yes why?)
OT is it only me who sees Redward and thinks of John Redwood?
Not sure I've ever confused the two! - but now you've put the homophone in my mind. So what's the best nickname for him then? Microband? Miliblob? Redward? Red Ed? The Gimp? Wallace?
Milicraperoo!
It now has ONE google hit
And hence a host of temporary googlewhacks like
Massive Milicraperoo
Actually, craperoo, it has to be a word in the dictionary
Mr. Tokyo, Labour also campaigned for a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, and then just didn't hold one.
That's not quite true - there's a weasel in there because it's a different treaty to the one they promised a referendum on, without the flag and the anthem and things. But even allowing for future weaselling I'm confident they won't transfer powers to make Kate Middleton go on the game without a referendum. I'm not even sure they'll do it at all.
Ed accuses Ukip of being a divisive force - he wouldn't like to live in a UK like that. Setting one section of society against another.
Yet, as far as I can see, nearly all his policies are based on an "us and them" theme. "They're all out to get you."
The fat cats aren't paying their tax, the energy companies are robbing you blind, they're making society more unequal, hard-working families are being taken advantage of by the elite. Vote Labour to sort the bastards out.
His main gripe is that he thinks Ukip have stolen his clothes. But they're stigmatising potential Labour voters and not Tory ones.
Considering you're a supporter of a party that has been condemned by the victims and their parents for exploiting the tragedy, you're the one who lacks credibility.
What percentage of the tens of thousands of victims are you referring to?
I'm very glad a party that focuses on principle rather than polling is ramping up its share of the vote. They wouldn't do something like point to the polls to justify handing over ancient British protections for the accused to the European Union.
As I keep on pointing on, the polling shows, UKIP supporters have a negative impression of Asian men not shared by the public at large.
That's why the good people of South Yorkshire rejected UKIP.
A mild difference in supporters' views of different ethnicities, particularly with such a vague and ambiguous wording, ranks far lower in importance than the actual party itself not investigating tens of thousands of child rapes on account of racial sensitivities.
The more snide comments like that we read the more CON/UKIP waverers are going to think fsck it, and vote UKIP...
You're thinking of making weird Ed PM because some Tory posters on a blog are a bit snide? It's a view I suppose...
Or.
The Conservative Party is thinking of making Ed PM, because they can't be civil to the people that have been turning out for them for years, because they suddenly have this fantastic notion that if they witter a few green nostrums and burn a few sacred cows of the shire tories, the Guardian Readers will kick off their sandals and come and vote Tory.
The Conservative party won't be in the polling booth with you, urging you to vote for UKIP. It'll be entirely up to you if you decide to help weird Ed become PM because you can't brush off some snide comments
Living as I do in a seat with a 15,000 Tory majority I think they are quite safe, it would only be considered "sending a message" ;-)
Ah, so you can afford to be so frivolous with your vote!
For those betting on a high number of SNP seats next year, this could be expensive.
The Scottish National party is planning to target more seats at Westminster by allowing prominent yes campaigners to stand at the general election, the Guardian can reveal.
The party’s annual conference is expected to endorse plans on Friday to allow its newest members to stand for election, after its ranks were swelled by more than 60,000 new activists and supporters after the referendum.
In a potentially far-reaching move, the party could also promote non-SNP candidates as part of a broader “yes alliance” of independence campaigners, allowing them to stand in place of the SNP under that wider banner.
It is a risk. Much depends on how this is structured if it happens. Nicola Sturgeon is rumoured to be opposed to the idea of a broader Yes alliance, but two out of three candidates for the Deputy role are openly in favour.
On the specifics of the piece, the Greens have named Edinburgh East as their one Scottish target. They'll be hugely annoyed if the SNP seek to put a different Yes Alliance candidate in that seat:
I'm wondering if the out of touch Nats are making a blunder here.
It could potentially allow across Scotland, Unionists to unite being the leading SNP/yes alliance candidate.
Ha Ha Ha , you been sniffing the sherry bottle
Considering you called me a turnip among other things, when I said UKIP were likely to win a Euro seat and No would win, it's clear I'm more in touch with the Scottish public than you are.
you got that one on auto repeat for every time it is pointed out you are talking through a hole in your erchie
Considering you're a supporter of a party that has been condemned by the victims and their parents for exploiting the tragedy, you're the one who lacks credibility.
What percentage of the tens of thousands of victims are you referring to?
I'm very glad a party that focuses on principle rather than polling is ramping up its share of the vote. They wouldn't do something like point to the polls to justify handing over ancient British protections for the accused to the European Union.
As I keep on pointing on, the polling shows, UKIP supporters have a negative impression of Asian men not shared by the public at large.
That's why the good people of South Yorkshire rejected UKIP.
A mild difference in supporters' views of different ethnicities, particularly with such a vague and ambiguous wording, ranks far lower in importance than the actual party itself not investigating tens of thousands of child rapes on account of racial sensitivities.
Again keep on denying the polling and all the other evidence.
You're making my case far stronger than I ever could.
We're becoming a nation of victims. It used to just be Liverpudlians but it's spread to the rest of the country. I would date it from aftermath of Diana's car crash and it's just got worse.
Agree - and the two political parties seeing most growth play victim hood like a violin - sometimes it's difficult to tell their arguments apart - if only we weren't in the EU//UK everything ŵoukd be so much better and it's all someone else's fault.........
As correlation =/= causation - and I have not employed Econometrics nor Economic-Statistics for 25 years - I will look at these rates at the close of the market this evening.
What if the EU decides, in its economic apocalypse, to force Kate Middleton to go on the game? Might we leave then, Mr Miliband?
IIUC Labour's position is still to have a referendum on large transfers of sovereignty and the EU don't currently have the authority to do this, so the assumption here would be that Britain has held a referendum on letting the EU make Kate Middleton go on the game, and the British voted "yes". I don't see why the UK would leave the EU over this since they were clearly in agreement with it, although Kate Middleton might want to leave the UK.
Your faith in the Labour party on EU plebiscites is touching.
Remember how shamefully they acted over Lisbon
Rather reminiscent of how the Conservatives acted on promising referenda for "significant transfers of powers", and then not even giving parliament a vote on the EAW.
When even the likes of Sir Bill Cash says the referendum lock didn't apply on Monday, you know you're on shaky ground with that.
That's the point, isn't it? The referendum lock law didn't do what they said it would. Weasels will weasel.
(But I still think you guys are worrying too much about the Kate Middleton issue.)
Yup. Dodgy Italian courts/police looking for a foreign scapegoat rather than actually try and solve crime. The EAW debate will really explode if this poor woman is extradited to Italy without a hearing and then is stuck in the awful Italian legal system like Foxy Knoxy. At least Amanda Knox had the protection of the US government when the erroneous charges were taken up again. This poor woman will have no protection.
Ed accuses Ukip of being a divisive force - he wouldn't like to live in a UK like that. Setting one section of society against another.
Yet, as far as I can see, nearly all his policies are based on an "us and them" theme. "They're all out to get you."
The fat cats aren't paying their tax, the energy companies are robbing you blind, they're making society more unequal, hard-working families are being taken advantage of by the elite. Vote Labour to sort the bastards out.
His main gripe is that he thinks Ukip have stolen his clothes. But they're stigmatising potential Labour voters and not Tory ones.
"Hi Samuel, the UKIP hustings for the ward of East Ham are to be held...."
"Constituency profile[edit]
Comprising the eastern part of the London Borough of Newham, East Ham is, as at 2010, the safest Labour seat in London and sixth safest in the country. Every component ward has only Labour councillors (resulting from local elections), and their general election candidates have achieved an absolute majority on all four elections against a wide assortment of political parties at each election.
The constituency has the largest proportion of non-white people in the UK; Greater London's highest proportion of British Asian, many of whom are Muslims live in the seat. In the London Borough of Newham 43.5% of people are British Asian in 2011.[n 4]
The constituency takes in several run-down, deprived, lower working class areas with low incomes and high unemployment that in 2000 ranked high in the Index of Multiple Deprivation[2] including Beckton, Silvertown and East Ham itself. London City Airport is in the seat, as are the former Royal Docks where modern luxury housing is springing up.
Around two thirds of constituents are non-white, and more than 40% of the population are immigrants to the UK."
Don't beat about the bush Len - tell us what you really think:
But it is also essential that the other leading candidate, Jim Murphy MP, does not seize the reins in Scotland. This is partly because he is a Westminster politician, and Unite members and many others have clearly expressed the view that Scottish Labour needs to be led from Holyrood by an MSP untainted by the expenses’ scandal which so undermined faith in London politicians.
But even more importantly, Murphy is the candidate of the past and the candidate of division. He is an advocate – and, let me acknowledge, a powerful and committed advocate – for the policies which have led Scottish Labour to its present pass. His victory would be all the SNP’s Christmases come at once.
He supports austerity and “economic credibility” with the City of London. He was a strong backer of the disastrous Iraq War, and made it clear he would have liked to see military action against Syria last year. He backs extending privatisation in the public services. He is a pioneer of tuition fees for students.
Murphy has disappeared , BBC stopped calling him leader etc once the unions etc kicked the crap out of him. One can only hope anybody other than him is elected to lead the regional puppet regime. Will be nice to see him get his just desserts.
Ed accuses Ukip of being a divisive force - he wouldn't like to live in a UK like that. Setting one section of society against another.
Yet, as far as I can see, nearly all his policies are based on an "us and them" theme. "They're all out to get you."
The fat cats aren't paying their tax, the energy companies are robbing you blind, they're making society more unequal, hard-working families are being taken advantage of by the elite. Vote Labour to sort the bastards out.
His main gripe is that he thinks Ukip have stolen his clothes. But they're stigmatising potential Labour voters and not Tory ones.
"Hi Samuel, the UKIP hustings for the ward of East Ham are to be held...."
"Constituency profile[edit]
Comprising the eastern part of the London Borough of Newham, East Ham is, as at 2010, the safest Labour seat in London and sixth safest in the country. Every component ward has only Labour councillors (resulting from local elections), and their general election candidates have achieved an absolute majority on all four elections against a wide assortment of political parties at each election.
The constituency has the largest proportion of non-white people in the UK; Greater London's highest proportion of British Asian, many of whom are Muslims live in the seat. In the London Borough of Newham 43.5% of people are British Asian in 2011.[n 4]
The constituency takes in several run-down, deprived, lower working class areas with low incomes and high unemployment that in 2000 ranked high in the Index of Multiple Deprivation[2] including Beckton, Silvertown and East Ham itself. London City Airport is in the seat, as are the former Royal Docks where modern luxury housing is springing up.
Around two thirds of constituents are non-white, and more than 40% of the population are immigrants to the UK."
Ed accuses Ukip of being a divisive force - he wouldn't like to live in a UK like that. Setting one section of society against another.
Yet, as far as I can see, nearly all his policies are based on an "us and them" theme. "They're all out to get you."
The fat cats aren't paying their tax, the energy companies are robbing you blind, they're making society more unequal, hard-working families are being taken advantage of by the elite. Vote Labour to sort the bastards out.
His main gripe is that he thinks Ukip have stolen his clothes. But they're stigmatising potential Labour voters and not Tory ones.
"Hi Samuel, the UKIP hustings for the ward of East Ham are to be held...."
"Constituency profile[edit]
Comprising the eastern part of the London Borough of Newham, East Ham is, as at 2010, the safest Labour seat in London and sixth safest in the country. Every component ward has only Labour councillors (resulting from local elections), and their general election candidates have achieved an absolute majority on all four elections against a wide assortment of political parties at each election.
The constituency has the largest proportion of non-white people in the UK; Greater London's highest proportion of British Asian, many of whom are Muslims live in the seat. In the London Borough of Newham 43.5% of people are British Asian in 2011.[n 4]
The constituency takes in several run-down, deprived, lower working class areas with low incomes and high unemployment that in 2000 ranked high in the Index of Multiple Deprivation[2] including Beckton, Silvertown and East Ham itself. London City Airport is in the seat, as are the former Royal Docks where modern luxury housing is springing up.
Around two thirds of constituents are non-white, and more than 40% of the population are immigrants to the UK."
Yup. Dodgy Italian courts/police looking for a foreign scapegoat rather than actually try and solve crime. The EAW debate will really explode if this poor woman is extradited to Italy without a hearing and then is stuck in the awful Italian legal system like Foxy Knoxy. At least Amanda Knox had the protection of the US government when the erroneous charges were taken up again. This poor woman will have no protection.
Wow
It will be interesting to see the how those vehemently in favour of the EAW while vehemently in support of encouraging women to report rape will react/tie themselves in knots
Don't beat about the bush Len - tell us what you really think:
But it is also essential that the other leading candidate, Jim Murphy MP, does not seize the reins in Scotland. This is partly because he is a Westminster politician, and Unite members and many others have clearly expressed the view that Scottish Labour needs to be led from Holyrood by an MSP untainted by the expenses’ scandal which so undermined faith in London politicians.
But even more importantly, Murphy is the candidate of the past and the candidate of division. He is an advocate – and, let me acknowledge, a powerful and committed advocate – for the policies which have led Scottish Labour to its present pass. His victory would be all the SNP’s Christmases come at once.
He supports austerity and “economic credibility” with the City of London. He was a strong backer of the disastrous Iraq War, and made it clear he would have liked to see military action against Syria last year. He backs extending privatisation in the public services. He is a pioneer of tuition fees for students.
Murphy has disappeared , BBC stopped calling him leader etc once the unions etc kicked the crap out of him. One can only hope anybody other than him is elected to lead the regional puppet regime. Will be nice to see him get his just desserts.
I've never thought much of Len Mcluskey tbh, but if he helps Findlay get elected I will be forever grateful.
I do love you, but that's risible. Like Tories eat babies.
I can't quite tell when you're being sincere or mocking yourself. I suspect you really do think Lucifer has body-swapped with this Australian in order to do his evil bidding.
We're becoming a nation of victims. It used to just be Liverpudlians but it's spread to the rest of the country. I would date it from aftermath of Diana's car crash and it's just got worse.
Agree - and the two political parties seeing most growth play victim hood like a violin - sometimes it's difficult to tell their arguments apart - if only we weren't in the EU//UK everything ŵoukd be so much better and it's all someone else's fault.........
"Let us run Britain because we hate it so much"
That's Labour
"Let us run Britain because we hate it so much" Also the Lib Dems view.
I wouldn't waste your time on the 'R' word. Although some in the Labour party understand, they tend to be northern MPs and out of the elite. As Simon Danczuk remarked in the Telegraph;
" ... the Labour Party is a broad church. But I fear too many hold the view expressed by former Rotherham MP, Denis MacShane, last week. He avoided child abuse in his constituency, he told the BBC, because he was “a Guardian-reading liberal Leftie” and didn’t want to “rock the multicultural community boat”.
No one will be blamed, it will be the system that failed. The managers will move on to other high-paid jobs, lessons will be learned, a line drawn under it, and we will all move on.
@montie@ConHome a thoughtful piece, Tim. As always. Much to mull over
Is he thinking of re ratting?
Not until next March, when his re-ratting would cause maximum damage ahead of the election. "I have now had six months to see UKIP from the inside. I had thought they were well intentioned people, with an alternative vision for Britain. I was very wrong on both counts...."
Obviously were he to do that, he would be a patriotic principled chap worthy of praise.
I second that emotion
There's alot of wishful thinking on this site sometimes.
Understatement of the century!!!
If UKIP can't even get the founder of UKIPhome to join them then really, they must be toxic.
Yup, the polling backs that up.
UKIP are the most extreme, least fit to govern party with candidates more likely to hold racist/offensive views
Yet, the party has the highest-rated leader of all, scores better than the Conservatives on "in touch with people like me", and 34% would seriously consider voting for it.
Considering you're a supporter of a party that has been condemned by the victims and their parents for exploiting the tragedy, you're the one who lacks credibility.
What percentage of the tens of thousands of victims are you referring to?
I'm very glad a party that focuses on principle rather than polling is ramping up its share of the vote. They wouldn't do something like point to the polls to justify handing over ancient British protections for the accused to the European Union.
As I keep on pointing on, the polling shows, UKIP supporters have a negative impression of Asian men not shared by the public at large.
That's why the good people of South Yorkshire rejected UKIP.
A mild difference in supporters' views of different ethnicities, particularly with such a vague and ambiguous wording, ranks far lower in importance than the actual party itself not investigating tens of thousands of child rapes on account of racial sensitivities.
Again keep on denying the polling and all the other evidence.
You're making my case far stronger than I ever could.
I'm not denying any polling. I'm just saying it's less important in the assessment of a party than not investigating tens of thousands of child rapes for, at best, no explicable reason and, at worst, a desire to treat Asian suspects differently to white ones. You know full well that if tens of thousands of Asian kids had been raped by gangs of white men, there would be a huge government response to it.
Looks like it was a seat held, compared to the results in 2014? Last night's result, with changes on May 2014, was:
Liberal Democrat 36% (-7) Labour 31% (+1) Conservative 24% (+8) Green 9% (-2)
Turns out it isn't in Huppert's seat.
Yes it's in Lansley's constituency but it's still encouraging for Huppert since the neighbouring wards like Trumpington are likely to vote pretty much the same as Queen Edith's.
Yup. Dodgy Italian courts/police looking for a foreign scapegoat rather than actually try and solve crime. The EAW debate will really explode if this poor woman is extradited to Italy without a hearing and then is stuck in the awful Italian legal system like Foxy Knoxy. At least Amanda Knox had the protection of the US government when the erroneous charges were taken up again. This poor woman will have no protection.
I was in Italy recently and there's a very big social dislike there of British/American students going there and going wild. In the cases of female students, that often combines with a misogyny where they're considered sluts that sleep around and then regret it later. Such prejudices come out particularly strongly in some of these cases. I don't yet know this case well enough to assess the facts accurately, but I don't exactly have faith in the Italian justice system, given its evident corruption over the years, and it's appalling that Theresa May has wiped away this suspect's traditional British protections.
@montie@ConHome a thoughtful piece, Tim. As always. Much to mull over
Is he thinking of re ratting?
Not until next March, when his re-ratting would cause maximum damage ahead of the election. "I have now had six months to see UKIP from the inside. I had thought they were well intentioned people, with an alternative vision for Britain. I was very wrong on both counts...."
Obviously were he to do that, he would be a patriotic principled chap worthy of praise.
I second that emotion
There's alot of wishful thinking on this site sometimes.
Understatement of the century!!!
If UKIP can't even get the founder of UKIPhome to join them then really, they must be toxic.
Yup, the polling backs that up.
UKIP are the most extreme, least fit to govern party with candidates more likely to hold racist/offensive views
Yougov
ABC1 (C2DE) Voting intentions
TORIES 35% (29%) LABOUR 33% (37%) UKIP 12% (20%) LIBDEMS 9% (6%) GREENS 7% (4%) SNP / PC 4% (4%)
The biggest change over the last 40 years has been the sheer number of AB & C1s switching from Tory to Labour. I recall an episode of Rumpole of the Bailey many years ago when a very posh lawyer was asked which party he would be standing for in the election and when he replied "Labour naturally" this was an unusual enough TV moment to be remarked on the following day.
Ed accuses Ukip of being a divisive force - he wouldn't like to live in a UK like that. Setting one section of society against another.
Yet, as far as I can see, nearly all his policies are based on an "us and them" theme. "They're all out to get you."
The fat cats aren't paying their tax, the energy companies are robbing you blind, they're making society more unequal, hard-working families are being taken advantage of by the elite. Vote Labour to sort the bastards out.
His main gripe is that he thinks Ukip have stolen his clothes. But they're stigmatising potential Labour voters and not Tory ones.
"Hi Samuel, the UKIP hustings for the ward of East Ham are to be held...."
"Constituency profile[edit]
Comprising the eastern part of the London Borough of Newham, East Ham is, as at 2010, the safest Labour seat in London and sixth safest in the country. Every component ward has only Labour councillors (resulting from local elections), and their general election candidates have achieved an absolute majority on all four elections against a wide assortment of political parties at each election.
The constituency has the largest proportion of non-white people in the UK; Greater London's highest proportion of British Asian, many of whom are Muslims live in the seat. In the London Borough of Newham 43.5% of people are British Asian in 2011.[n 4]
The constituency takes in several run-down, deprived, lower working class areas with low incomes and high unemployment that in 2000 ranked high in the Index of Multiple Deprivation[2] including Beckton, Silvertown and East Ham itself. London City Airport is in the seat, as are the former Royal Docks where modern luxury housing is springing up.
Around two thirds of constituents are non-white, and more than 40% of the population are immigrants to the UK."
He helpfully omits the polling that shows Cam more popular than the party. Tim is deep in the bubble.
That doesn't make Cameron a good leader. Conservative support hasn't really budged from 33% or thereabouts since 1997. Fortunately, Labour support has fallen away over that period.
What would Con support be with David Davis in charge - 19% ?
Maybe knock off 3 points that would have gone to the Lib Dems and add 10 points from UKIP. I'd guess around 40%?
@montie@ConHome a thoughtful piece, Tim. As always. Much to mull over
Is he thinking of re ratting?
Not until next March, when his re-ratting would cause maximum damage ahead of the election. "I have now had six months to see UKIP from the inside. I had thought they were well intentioned people, with an alternative vision for Britain. I was very wrong on both counts...."
Obviously were he to do that, he would be a patriotic principled chap worthy of praise.
I second that emotion
There's alot of wishful thinking on this site sometimes.
Understatement of the century!!!
If UKIP can't even get the founder of UKIPhome to join them then really, they must be toxic.
Yup, the polling backs that up.
UKIP are the most extreme, least fit to govern party with candidates more likely to hold racist/offensive views
Yougov
ABC1 (C2DE) Voting intentions
TORIES 35% (29%) LABOUR 33% (37%) UKIP 12% (20%) LIBDEMS 9% (6%) GREENS 7% (4%) SNP / PC 4% (4%)
The biggest change over the last 40 years has been the sheer number of AB & C1s switching from Tory to Labour. I recall an episode of Rumpole of the Bailey many years ago when a very posh lawyer was asked which party he would be standing for in the election and when he replied "Labour naturally" this was an unusual enough TV moment to be remarked on the following day.
There's a gulf in middle class attitudes now between somewhere like Hertsmere and Inner London.
Don't beat about the bush Len - tell us what you really think:
But it is also essential that the other leading candidate, Jim Murphy MP, does not seize the reins in Scotland. This is partly because he is a Westminster politician, and Unite members and many others have clearly expressed the view that Scottish Labour needs to be led from Holyrood by an MSP untainted by the expenses’ scandal which so undermined faith in London politicians.
But even more importantly, Murphy is the candidate of the past and the candidate of division. He is an advocate – and, let me acknowledge, a powerful and committed advocate – for the policies which have led Scottish Labour to its present pass. His victory would be all the SNP’s Christmases come at once.
He supports austerity and “economic credibility” with the City of London. He was a strong backer of the disastrous Iraq War, and made it clear he would have liked to see military action against Syria last year. He backs extending privatisation in the public services. He is a pioneer of tuition fees for students.
Murphy has disappeared , BBC stopped calling him leader etc once the unions etc kicked the crap out of him. One can only hope anybody other than him is elected to lead the regional puppet regime. Will be nice to see him get his just desserts.
Early days admittedly - Mr M has lots of MPs and possibly party members behind him, to be fair. But the Glasgow shipyards closure story is something to watch given the much wider importance of keeping west-central Scotland on side for Mr Miliband and his crew.
Since the RN ran the order *cancellation flag, or rather the jack, up the jackstaff, the usual Labour suspects have gone very quiet indeed at the thought of this novel dividend of remaining in the Union, despite their very loud noises on this very topic at the time of indyref and indeed in at least one case the threat to close them in the event of a Yes vote.
Whose idea it is, I am not sure, and it could always be another MoD messup like the proposal to annexe Faslane and Coulport to EWNI. But it's not as if the Tories have any MPs to lose on Clydeside, whereas Labour do ...
*Technically, failure to complete the order beyond the initial design work. But the way it was being talked up in indyref, practically the same thing.
On election night 2010 / next morning, Labour were heading for 29% in GB until East Ham came in. The Labour vote was so massive at 35,471 that it pushed them up to 30% when rounding to the nearest whole per cent.
Comments
Junior helped! Once the US became an exporter then supply must be greater than demand.
Other events that have become known: Events I assumed known that have failed: Events I could not predict: Like Wee-Timmy my bet was phrased as a one-snapshot-in-a-year-win: You correctly fixed a single-point-in-time. You also accepted my £50/evens and did not pontificate like a certain 'techie' I could name....
Also the Lib Dems view.
Liberal Democrat 36% (-7) [-14]
Labour 31% (+1) [+18]
Conservative 24% (+8) [-5]
Green 9% (-2) [+1]
Note that UKIP stood a candidate in the ward in 2010, but not in either of the 2014 elections.
A very comfortable Labour gain in Cambridge in 2015 if this ward is in any way representative - which it might be, even though not in the constituency!
The 24 October Opinium has 31% of voters ready to vote UKIP if they thought it could win in their constituency.
sean thomas knox @thomasknox
In the face of the EU's desperate stagnation, it is literally insane to say "we will never leave", as Ed Miliband did last week.
sean thomas knox @thomasknox
What if the EU decides, in its economic apocalypse, to force Kate Middleton to go on the game? Might we leave then, Mr Miliband?
sean thomas knox @thomasknox
What if the EU, faced with economic doom, decides to burn British grandmothers as cheap winter fuel. Would we STILL stay in, Mr Miliband?
sean thomas knox @thomasknox
Ed Miliband is a silly, helpless twit. I understand I may not be the first person to have noticed this.
"I told Mike to lay UKIP, it's what I have been doing...." etc etc
" Journalists and bankers are trusted to tell the truth by only 21 per cent of people, while estate agents get 24. "
Unless it involves redheads.
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
Rather than constantly going on about how horrible UKIP are, perhaps Conservatives would do a better job if they considered why so much of their traditional support now prefers UKIP to the Tories that you need to refer to your main grassroots website as "UKIPHome"?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mv8Fk0vLEOU
If only their parents had called them Peter and Rick.
50.063328
Will check tonight once I return to Bedfordshire....
Microband?
Miliblob?
Redward?
Red Ed?
The Gimp?
Wallace?
You like Chechen Jihadis? I suppose it takes all sorts....
It now has ONE google hit
Considering you're a supporter of a party that has been condemned by the victims and their parents for exploiting the tragedy, you're the one who lacks credibility.
Me and Fluffy have a bet on it.
More of the Christina Hendricks, Karen Gillan variety.
The Conservative Party is thinking of making Ed PM, because they can't be civil to the people that have been turning out for them for years, because they suddenly have this fantastic notion that if they witter a few green nostrums and burn a few sacred cows of the shire tories, the Guardian Readers will kick off their sandals and come and vote Tory.
I'm very glad a party that focuses on principle rather than polling is ramping up its share of the vote. They wouldn't do something like point to the polls to justify handing over ancient British protections for the accused to the European Union.
That's why the good people of South Yorkshire rejected UKIP.
Remember how shamefully they acted over Lisbon
ABC1 (C2DE) Voting intentions
TORIES 35% (29%)
LABOUR 33% (37%)
UKIP 12% (20%)
LIBDEMS 9% (6%)
GREENS 7% (4%)
SNP / PC 4% (4%)
Massive Milicraperoo
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11229349/Fashion-student-Serena-Bowes-faces-extradition-to-Italy-after-being-accused-of-making-up-rape-story.html
You're making my case far stronger than I ever could.
49.841991
As correlation =/= causation - and I have not employed Econometrics nor Economic-Statistics for 25 years - I will look at these rates at the close of the market this evening.
:good-hunting-folks:
(But I still think you guys are worrying too much about the Kate Middleton issue.)
Turns out my erchie is a more accurate predictor of Scots voting intention than your feeble turnip addled mind ever could.
"Constituency profile[edit]
Comprising the eastern part of the London Borough of Newham, East Ham is, as at 2010, the safest Labour seat in London and sixth safest in the country. Every component ward has only Labour councillors (resulting from local elections), and their general election candidates have achieved an absolute majority on all four elections against a wide assortment of political parties at each election.
The constituency has the largest proportion of non-white people in the UK; Greater London's highest proportion of British Asian, many of whom are Muslims live in the seat. In the London Borough of Newham 43.5% of people are British Asian in 2011.[n 4]
The constituency takes in several run-down, deprived, lower working class areas with low incomes and high unemployment that in 2000 ranked high in the Index of Multiple Deprivation[2] including Beckton, Silvertown and East Ham itself. London City Airport is in the seat, as are the former Royal Docks where modern luxury housing is springing up.
Around two thirds of constituents are non-white, and more than 40% of the population are immigrants to the UK."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Ham_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
#OneNation
Ed's speech shows when he looks at Britain he sees some kind of capitalist North Korea, some kind of Orwellian nightmare.
Of course there are injustices here, just as there are in every country. But deeply unequal, deeply unjust.......??
compared to where....?
& Havering council is merging with it... and our hospitals have been closed so Newham residents can live in the houses built on them
That's gone down well here
LIBDEMS 77%
LABOUR 68%
TORIES 53%
UKIP 39%
It will be interesting to see the how those vehemently in favour of the EAW while vehemently in support of encouraging women to report rape will react/tie themselves in knots
Leanne @LeanneSpurs 9h9 hours ago
David Cameron's porkies will eventually catch up w/ him!
People wonder when he's lying: #SIMPLE, his lips move!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B2WbyoRIAAANMyy.jpg …
I can't quite tell when you're being sincere or mocking yourself. I suspect you really do think Lucifer has body-swapped with this Australian in order to do his evil bidding.
That's even weirder.
I wouldn't waste your time on the 'R' word. Although some in the Labour party understand, they tend to be northern MPs and out of the elite. As Simon Danczuk remarked in the Telegraph;
" ... the Labour Party is a broad church. But I fear too many hold the view expressed by former Rotherham MP, Denis MacShane, last week. He avoided child abuse in his constituency, he told the BBC, because he was “a Guardian-reading liberal Leftie” and didn’t want to “rock the multicultural community boat”.
No one will be blamed, it will be the system that failed. The managers will move on to other high-paid jobs, lessons will be learned, a line drawn under it, and we will all move on.
So stop going on about it.
That particular horse has long since bolted - thankfully.
Equality of opportunity is such a good thing!
It was deceit, plain and simple.
Latest Populus VI: Lab 35 (-1), Con 33 (-1), LD 9 (+1), UKIP 13 (=), Oth 9 (=). Tables here: http://popu.lu/s_vi141114
The biggest change over the last 40 years has been the sheer number of AB & C1s switching from Tory to Labour. I recall an episode of Rumpole of the Bailey many years ago when a very posh lawyer was asked which party he would be standing for in the election and when he replied "Labour naturally" this was an unusual enough TV moment to be remarked on the following day.
Since the RN ran the order *cancellation flag, or rather the jack, up the jackstaff, the usual Labour suspects have gone very quiet indeed at the thought of this novel dividend of remaining in the Union, despite their very loud noises on this very topic at the time of indyref and indeed in at least one case the threat to close them in the event of a Yes vote.
Whose idea it is, I am not sure, and it could always be another MoD messup like the proposal to annexe Faslane and Coulport to EWNI. But it's not as if the Tories have any MPs to lose on Clydeside, whereas Labour do ...
*Technically, failure to complete the order beyond the initial design work. But the way it was being talked up in indyref, practically the same thing.
Theresa May is the epitome of the 'anything to stay in office' modern politician. Zero conviction. Zero core beliefs.