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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nighthawks is now open
Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.
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Says the loony toon who wants to remove all immigration controls.
So Dave was right about gay marriage it seems, though I think even the kippers are coming round to it. Small c conservatism is fading.
I thought Brown had a plan. I even-with no evidence whatsoever-thought Ed might have one. Possibly keeping his powder dry. I thought his conference speech
might be a wolf whistle that I couldn't pick up on.
..........Well we're now looking at Christmas and even I as a Labour supporter can't think of a single reason why I should vote Labour. Well maybe not being Tory but the Greens aren't Tory either.
Labour have chosen a lemon and it's time to make a move.....
(i) A belated putsch against Miliband or
(ii) Miliband resigns as Labour leader.
Next to nil in both cases I suspect, but it would be interesting to hear what Labourites think.
I think there is a lot of doubt that Brown was an excellent Chancellor.
But you're right about Ed.
Norway are losing against Iceland
Netherlands are losing against Mexico
Argentina are losing against Croatia
Iceland and Belgium is currently 1-1
I agree that Ed Miliband does potentially have the bare bones of a good argument to make which WOULD be accepted by the public - that big businesses and the super-rich are just being allowed to speed too far away from us, and they must be reined in for the sake of the rest of us - but he and the other prats in the shadow cabinet (Ed Balls especially) are just too scared to actually follow through with the policies that are needed. They're just going to have to grit their teeth and put up with the taunts of "Marxists!" and "lurch to the left!" from the idiot media and the business establishment themselves, because we can see now that the alternative (having nothing to say whatsoever) is going to mean even their core support leeching away, never mind the "centre-ground" voters.
Are we on audreyanne's dinner party timing schedule or something ?
The last thread was approaching 600 comments, so save server costs I launched nighthawks now.
Plus, I want an early night tonight.
The first essential is to prevent tax avoidance and tax evasion. The former requires regulations and laws and international agreements. The Amazons and Philip Greenes of this world need to contribute to the societies that fund them. The latter is difficult, as it includes illegal practices, which can be hard to track down when the perpetrators are more professional than the enforcers.
If the government's response to the despicable child rape saga in Rotherham is as it seems, ie the square root of eff all, then I will be livid.
If, as I long to believe, there's far more going on behind the scenes and we'll soon see the fruits of their efforts then I can understand on a number of levels why they would have been so reticent about revealing what they're up to.
You don't have to think too far back to remember when angry mobs were attacking paediatricians. It's not hard to imagine that similar mobs would be attacking all kinds of Yorkshire Asians.
The time being taken may well be a direct consequence of the depths that they have discovered that this scandal reaches, and a justifiable worry that publicising their findings will lead to far more mob action.
Although I'm not entirely comfortable with this wait and see approach, it may be better than the alternatives.
That's for Tories surely?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hro4AdTYiTA
He is a back-to-lay option still and he doesn't say no here.
http://www.desmogblog.com/2014/11/12/sacked-environment-secretary-dodges-question-whether-he-will-challenge-conservative-party-leadership
Here's my opener:
' Carers for disabled people, who have been involved in one of the longest strikes in the history of the health service, accused Ed Miliband in a private meeting of failure to offer public support for their cause. The carers, who have been on strike for 90 days, told the Labour leader of their deep disappointment with what they say is his failure to help his constituents in Doncaster.
Sixty carers are striking in support of a living wage for staff within the privatised care service, now run by the private equity-owned Care UK. At a 45-minute meeting on Friday, three representatives of the strikers handed Miliband a letter which read: “Mr Miliband, it’s not easy to sit here and say this: we have had private, but no public, support from you or any of the local Labour MPs. The local Labour party and councillors have been worse. We have not had one word of support or visit to our picket line from any of the local Labour party. We cannot tell you how disappointing this has been for us. Most of us have been Labour voters all our lives, a good proportion of us are your constituents … It’s time to get off the fence. We want you to publicly state your support for our action.”
The leaking of the row will be an embarrassment for Miliband, who is MP for Doncaster North.
Care UK, whose majority shareholder is a private equity firm, Bridgepoint Capital, took over services for people with severe learning disabilities in Doncaster, South Yorkshire, from the NHS this year, cutting wages of staff who had been on NHS terms by up to 35%, while bringing in 100 new workers on £7 an hour. '
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/25/miliband-carers-failure-pay-strike
How can EdM make a mess like this of something which should 'meat and drink' to a Labour politician ?
View it as character building.
ii) Harman gets the gig. Then the NEC would have to decide if a leadership contest was practical. If not, Harman would 'lead' Labour into the election, without being a real leader.
I expect Labour are now coming to terms with likely defeat in 2015, which in itself should not cause grown-up politicians to panic. But if Miliband looks like snatching a rout from the jaws of defeat (cf. L&N model prediction) that equanimity could change...
http://games.usvsth3m.com/choose-your-own/miliband-speech-simulator/
The incredible thing is Ed appears even more clueless... nods to rent controls, gas price freeze ( as the wholesale price now plummets!), magical house building in the hundreds of thousands from nowhere having threatened to confiscate the land in the first place, and the defecit is so important he forgot it from his conference speech ( maybe it's gone for a walk on Hampstead Heath and is talking to strangers on park benches there?). We should be afraid.
What I can say is that Osborne expected that the introduction of a 15% annual penalty charge on residential property held through corporate envelopes (i.e. where an offshore company owns a property and the beneficial owner is not known) would result in most of them unwinding the structure and revealing the identity of the owner.
He got something of a windfall (IIRC more than £1bn p.a. in additional tax) from people who chose to pay up rather than reveal their identity.
You can only speculate about their motives for such a decision.
I personally think Alan Johnson WOULD step up if Miliband quit. Despite his talk of how he doesn't think he'd be up to it and how he wouldn't want the job in any circumstances, he did once admit that he would've been willing to become PM if Labour had gone into coalition with the Lib Dems after the 2010 election: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/apr/28/alan-johnson-prime-minister-almost
You feel the bone in your nose splinter with Ballses’ first blow. He knocks you down, enormous pumpkin head glowing with rage.
Once the shock has passed, the pain starts as the blows rain down. Balls advances on you. Surely he’s not going to sit on you. Surely.
The last thing you hear is you skull creaking as it takes the weight of the Balls.YOU DIE.
@Roger The #webackEd hashtag didn't work for you then?
Look on the bright side and Ed performs as badly as we all expect next year, we will be spared Dan Hodges running naked down the Mall.
I really don't understand the attraction of Johnson. He made a complete balls up of being shadow chancellor effectively in one speech. Why do people think he could stand the rigours of scrutiny that a Prime Ministerial candidate would undergo?
I'll try and come up with another way to cheer you all up
What's intriguing is how it's only now that Ed's ratings have really taken a tumble, though Labour's poll share has been on the slide for two years.
Never showed up for his own count.
It's time our dear stopped taking his feeble pills and started leading or he'll lose and lose badly
I cringe just thinking about that 2003 conference speech.
Most of the shadow cabinet agreed with me.
Now it may well be that the government is doing something 'behind the scenes' but after over four years in office this government has so far done the square root of eff all on this issue I have my doubts. There comes a point where you become certain that a course of action has been decided on and nothing will change - for me that was when Downing Street stated that 'lessons have been learnt' in response to the Jay Report. Whenever I hear that phrase I am certain that nothing will be done.
Contrast with Keith Vaz, not a man I would expect to have good words for, but who has done good work on the issue with the Home Affairs Select Committee.
I can understand your point about not wanting to defame entire sections of society but that concern about 'community cohesion' was one of the reasons behind the criminal toleration of the police and local council. Likewise in other locations right back to the Channel 4 report on Keighley in 2004. The continuation of this toleration now encourages people to seek their own form of 'justice'.
Meanwhile there are new victims around the country every day.
I see Farage wants to privatise the NHS now or he did... policies outside of johnny foreigners aren't really UKIPs forte as we know.
Because (a) the segment of the population that are immigrants themselves tend to have less of an issue with immigration and (b) people that do not like the effects of immigration move out to areas with less of it.
Second, why, when "net migration is down a quarter from its peak under Labour and... from outside the European Union is down to its lowest level since 1998" - as Cameron boasted at PMQs on 29 October - has concern about immigration continued to skyrocket, to a point where it now tops the list of voters' priorities?
Because people's issue is with the total number of immigrants in the country, not the last quarter's immigration figures.
Third, why do people think that far more immigrants live in the UK than actually do?
People aren't good at judging absolute numbers unless they are familiar with a statistics, but that doesn't mean they are incorrect about the judgment. Football fans can tell you if a Lionel Messi was a thunderbolt even if they can't put a mile per hour number on it.
Fourth, why was 70% of the public telling Gallup as long ago as 1978 that Britain was "being swamped" by people with different cultures, even though net migration at the time was negative - more people were leaving the UK than were arriving - and had been so for more than a decade?
See question 2. This isn't difficult.
Fifth, perhaps crucially and chillingly, why do a quarter (26%) of Britons - and, tellingly, a majority (51%) of Ukip supporters - think the government "should encourage immigrants and their families to leave Britain (including family members who were born in Britain)", according to a YouGov poll in April?
I don't know because I don't hold such views. Perhaps you could ask them. On that note, why does Mehdi Hassan believe that non-Muslims are unthinking animals? He's got a lot of nerve alleging other people are bigots.
Looks like he is going to need all of that intellectual self confidence
Do you think Ed is the man to lead a reform of the education system?
GREEN PARTY PERCENTAGE OF VOTES AT 2015 GENERAL ELECTION
Under 4% 5/6
4% or over 5/6
It's complicated because the Greens won't stand in every seat, so in practice you probably need a national vote share equivalent of 6% or maybe a bit more to reach 4% in votes cast.
Why Yorkshire? The scandal seems to extend at least to Rochdale.
Why Asian? No sign of Indians, Chinese, Thais, Japanese etc. being involved.
I wouldn't worry about random attacks on these people in any case. I felt threatened by the disgraceful media vilification during the Papal Visit in 2010. Much threat, zero action.
Your reasoning of potential threats to public order was probably the exact bullshit that those who allowed the abuse to continue followed.
Sunlight is the best disinfectant.
"So Dave was right about gay marriage it seems, though I think even the kippers are coming round to it. Small c conservatism is fading."
Having listened to the radio this morning where people were queuing up to say a Sheffield footballer should never be allowed near a football ground again and then a similar number up in arms because the parole board have decided to release a 78 year old man after 48 years in prison it doesn't feel like small c conservatism is fading. But I suppose it depends how you define it.
Cameron lies again about "paying down Britain's debts" in his conference speech.
The election debates will interesting.
That said, my skepticism Ed could do something about it remains, though I do not doubt his sincerity. He seems a pleasant enough chap.
On Rotherham, and other places where we know similar scandals have occurred as well as no doubt others where it hasn't yet been uncovered, if the only official response remains that "lessons have been learnt" then I'll regard that as entirely unforgivable.
Just from the Jay Report there seems to me to be enough evidence to have already at least have suspended a good proportion of the police and social services in that area. I can understand that there may be problems with doing so on a both a legal front (without yet having sufficient evidence against them to make a watertight case) and a practical front (can those areas be sufficiently policed/socially serviced with such reduced manpower).
I can also understand that revealing what the powers that be could be, should be and I hope are doing might make it easier for the perpetrators (and those in authority who have allowed them to get away with it) to cover their tracks.
What has happened is a disgraceful tragedy and we need to make sure that as many of those responsible for it as possible are properly punished.
Have I ever told you about my plan to buy a race horse and name it "My Face"
Not sure you will get away with naming one Traitorous Pig Dog though. They have rules about these things.
How about Perdicas? It sounds nice, vaguely classical even, but it is of course an anagram of...well, work it out for yourself.
Now, Labour isn't the only party to have intellectually lazy members and supporters, nor to ascribe to themselves and their opponents characteristics or values that are at best caricatures and at worst plain falsehoods, but they are particularly good at it.
I'm not trying to cover anything up about this, I don't want to and wouldn't have any way of of doing so if I did want to.
I'm hoping as hard as I can that there are sensible reasons for the whole known truth to not have already been revealed to us.
I've lost friends (amongst liberal luvvies in London I used to know) for trying to discuss this issue with them. They decided I was a racist for even raising it.
Please don't treat me as though I'm some extension of an establishment cover up on this.
Lord Ashcroft back among Tories’ top donors
How about Reckless Tw@ or might that be too subtle?