Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ashcroft Rochester poll has Reckless on course to win next

24

Comments

  • chestnut said:

    Labour manages to lose pretty much the same proportion of it's vote to UKIP as the Tories in both Nov 2014 and May 2015.

    I agree most of these Labour votes are gone for good.Many of them are life long Labour voters
    who have not come to the decision to switch lightly; this is not a flirtation it is a fundamental change in whether they believe the party they have always supported represents their vision for Britain any longer.
  • Note. The chart has been revised to exclude the don't knows to the GE15 voting question. I was trying to do things too quickly!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Another thing from the tables, despite the Tory candidate being a woman, UKIP are winning the woman vote by 41-35.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Speedy said:

    Another thing from the tables, despite the Tory candidate being a woman, UKIP are winning the woman vote by 41-35.

    I think we can rely on Kelly to widen that gap.

  • Speedy said:

    Danny565 said:

    I don't understand? According to the chart, all the parties are predicted to drop in May compared to this byelection....so where is all that lost support going?

    To Don't Knows.
    Then the campaign matters. Not something it is easy to make assumptions about, but UKIP have a good track record in the last two national campaigns - in 2013 and 2014 - of building support.
    Of course the campaign matters - and events, and the fact a GE is different to a by-election. Lots of things matter.

    Look back to the threads from when the election was called. The Tories were evidently going to throw the kitchen sink at this one. Reckless is no Carswell, we were told and Rochester will be no Clacton. Enough people believed this to push UKIP's price out to odds against.

    Then it all went quiet and pretty soon we were hearing that it was 'only a by-election' and it wouldn't be seismic if UKIP did win. To a punter this was tantamount to admitting that the kitchen sink had been thrown to minimal effect and it was now obvious Reckless would be coasting home. This latest poll confirms it.

    May is a long way off and a lot can happen but the trajectory of the national polls shows the combined score of Lab and Con slowly drifting down whilst UKIP's percentage climbs. Of course this can change, but there is no obvious reason why it should. In the circumstances it would be perfectly natural to assume that the trend will continue much as before.

    After Clacton, Farage indicated that he was expecting around five or six seats next May. If Reckless wins, he'll probably upgrade that estimate to about ten. That would be consistent with what the bookies are offering, having factored in the Rochester result which now looks a foregone conclusion.

    It pretty much goes without saying that if ten turns out to be correct, one of them is bound to be Rochester.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Note. The chart has been revised to exclude the don't knows to the GE15 voting question. I was trying to do things too quickly!

    I think the original was more informative as it gave away where the majority of D/K come from.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited November 2014
    antifrank said:

    2014 seems to be a fairly clear UKIP gain now. As for 2015:

    1) Lord Ashcroft's polls are generally fairly UKIP-friendly, and we shall need to see the 2014 result to see how these findings relate to the votes on the day (yes, I know it's a snapshot not a prediction, but still...)

    2) the Don't Knows for 2015 come disproportionately from 2014 UKIP supporters. That should be good news for UKIP, I'd have thought.

    From the viewpoint of David Cameron, it doesn't really matter whether Lord Ashcroft's findings about 2015 are right, however. They're sufficiently scary for would-be defectors to make them think twice.

    If I were considering a defection, I'd want a juicy UKIP target lined up for me to chicken-run to, unless I was already in one of the very most favourable seats from a UKIP perspective. I note that Basildon South & East Thurrock and Portsmouth South are both lacking UKIP candidates right now.

    #justsaying

    After the Clacton/Heywood by-elections someone said that one of the reasons UKIP didn't divert resources from Clacton > Heywood when polls suggested a substantial Clacton win, was that they had promised defectors (Mr Carswell) 100% Party effort for their by-election.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Out of interest: Has anybody lost at a GE after winning a by-election less than 6 months earlier?

    Yes, the one I can remember is the Langbaurgh by-election.

    Lab gained the seat in November 1991 and the Tories regained it in April 1992

    http://tinyurl.com/ry9ajr

    There are others I'm sure
    Kincardine & Deeside 1991
    Darlington 1983
    Govan 1973
    Motherwell 1945
    Caernarvon Boroughs 1945
    Middlesbrough West 1945
    Newport 1945
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Out of interest: Has anybody lost at a GE after winning a by-election less than 6 months earlier?

    One of the most famous examples was Ossie O'Brien winning the Darlington by-election in March 1983 and then losing at the general election in June.

    Many people think the by-election result kept Michael Foot in place as Labour leader.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darlington_by-election,_1983
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JohnRentoul: Riding back into town to save the Labour Party is "not my job nowadays": Blair. http://t.co/RVx3Ni3nPL
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    Out of interest: Has anybody lost at a GE after winning a by-election less than 6 months earlier?

    One of the most famous examples was Ossie O'Brien winning the Darlington by-election in March 1983 and then losing at the general election in June.

    Many people think the by-election result kept Michael Foot in place as Labour leader.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darlington_by-election,_1983
    That was a small margin, less than 5%.
    Which is to be expected that if the margin of victory isn't big in a byelection then they will lose it in the GE.
  • Speedy said:

    Danny565 said:

    I don't understand? According to the chart, all the parties are predicted to drop in May compared to this byelection....so where is all that lost support going?

    To Don't Knows.
    Then the campaign matters. Not something it is easy to make assumptions about, but UKIP have a good track record in the last two national campaigns - in 2013 and 2014 - of building support.
    Of course the campaign matters - and events, and the fact a GE is different to a by-election. Lots of things matter.

    Look back to the threads from when the election was called. The Tories were evidently going to throw the kitchen sink at this one. Reckless is no Carswell, we were told and Rochester will be no Clacton. Enough people believed this to push UKIP's price out to odds against.

    Then it all went quiet and pretty soon we were hearing that it was 'only a by-election' and it wouldn't be seismic if UKIP did win. To a punter this was tantamount to admitting that the kitchen sink had been thrown to minimal effect and it was now obvious Reckless would be coasting home. This latest poll confirms it.

    May is a long way off and a lot can happen but the trajectory of the national polls shows the combined score of Lab and Con slowly drifting down whilst UKIP's percentage climbs. Of course this can change, but there is no obvious reason why it should. In the circumstances it would be perfectly natural to assume that the trend will continue much as before.

    After Clacton, Farage indicated that he was expecting around five or six seats next May. If Reckless wins, he'll probably upgrade that estimate to about ten. That would be consistent with what the bookies are offering, having factored in the Rochester result which now looks a foregone conclusion.

    It pretty much goes without saying that if ten turns out to be correct, one of them is bound to be Rochester.
    Another point is that if Reckless wins this one convincingly large parts of Tory Kent are going to be under siege from Ukip in May.The Tories will not be able to concentrate on winning back Rochester.They will be fighting rearguard actions all over the County and also in Essex.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Out of interest: Has anybody lost at a GE after winning a by-election less than 6 months earlier?

    One of the most famous examples was Ossie O'Brien winning the Darlington by-election in March 1983 and then losing at the general election in June.

    Many people think the by-election result kept Michael Foot in place as Labour leader.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darlington_by-election,_1983
    That was a small margin, less than 5%.
    Which is to be expected that if the margin of victory isn't big in a byelection then they will lose it in the GE.
    IMO if a by-election candidate wins by more than 10% they're usually favourites to hold at the general, and I would apply that to Reckless.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Moses_ said:

    Moses_ said:

    TGOHF said:

    Time to sell Kipper seats at 11 ?

    Was it not said this is "a snapshot" not a poll? What difference that makes I am not sure? I am sure I am about to be told and corrected.
    All polls are 'snapshots not predictions'.
    Thanks AD and Of course. It was just mentioned in the thread before last.

    So where does the snapshot turn into a prediction for betting purposes?

    Day before? Exit poll?
    Looked at together, they reveal trends.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9049

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/methodology/
    Thanks AD.

  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Not sure if anyone has seen Shadsy's new market:

    Most Scottish seats at GE

    Lab 4/9
    SNP 13/8
    LD 100/1
    Con 100/1
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    Speedy said:

    Danny565 said:

    I don't understand? According to the chart, all the parties are predicted to drop in May compared to this byelection....so where is all that lost support going?

    To Don't Knows.
    Then the campaign matters. Not something it is easy to make assumptions about, but UKIP have a good track record in the last two national campaigns - in 2013 and 2014 - of building support.
    Of course the campaign matters - and events, and the fact a GE is different to a by-election. Lots of things matter.

    Look back to the threads from when the election was called. The Tories were evidently going to throw the kitchen sink at this one. Reckless is no Carswell, we were told and Rochester will be no Clacton. Enough people believed this to push UKIP's price out to odds against.

    Then it all went quiet and pretty soon we were hearing that it was 'only a by-election' and it wouldn't be seismic if UKIP did win. To a punter this was tantamount to admitting that the kitchen sink had been thrown to minimal effect and it was now obvious Reckless would be coasting home. This latest poll confirms it.

    May is a long way off and a lot can happen but the trajectory of the national polls shows the combined score of Lab and Con slowly drifting down whilst UKIP's percentage climbs. Of course this can change, but there is no obvious reason why it should. In the circumstances it would be perfectly natural to assume that the trend will continue much as before.

    After Clacton, Farage indicated that he was expecting around five or six seats next May. If Reckless wins, he'll probably upgrade that estimate to about ten. That would be consistent with what the bookies are offering, having factored in the Rochester result which now looks a foregone conclusion.

    It pretty much goes without saying that if ten turns out to be correct, one of them is bound to be Rochester.
    Another point is that if Reckless wins this one convincingly large parts of Tory Kent are going to be under siege from Ukip in May.The Tories will not be able to concentrate on winning back Rochester.They will be fighting rearguard actions all over the County and also in Essex.
    In which case, UKIP will definitely lose Rochester - because their hubris will have spread them too thinly....
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited November 2014

    Moses_ said:

    I'm pleased to note that, currently, Milicraperoo returns no search results on google

    That's known as. "Google whack "

    Its two words normally so technically for full scoring points it would need to be with a space.

    Mili crapperoo

    Isn't that when it returns just one page?

    Yes you are correct but it has to be two words..... And some other caveats

    (On this occasion he / she gets a pass though. )


    A Googlewhack is a type of contest for finding a Google search query consisting of exactly two words without quotation marks, that returns exactly one hit. A Googlewhack must consist of two actual words found in a dictionary. A Googlewhack is considered legitimate if both of the searched-for words appear in the result page.



  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Ladbrokes have also updated Rochester market, UKIP in to 1/33 Con out to 14/1
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Scott_P said:

    @JohnRentoul: Riding back into town to save the Labour Party is "not my job nowadays": Blair. http://t.co/RVx3Ni3nPL

    Maybe if a bank or a sheikh bunged him ten million?

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RodCrosby said:

    Out of interest: Has anybody lost at a GE after winning a by-election less than 6 months earlier?

    Yes, the one I can remember is the Langbaurgh by-election.

    Lab gained the seat in November 1991 and the Tories regained it in April 1992

    http://tinyurl.com/ry9ajr

    There are others I'm sure
    Kincardine & Deeside 1991
    Darlington 1983
    Govan 1973
    Motherwell 1945
    Caernarvon Boroughs 1945
    Middlesbrough West 1945
    Newport 1945
    With the exception of Kincardine & Deeside the others were of a very small margin of victory (less than 5%) or held under special circumstances of major parties not putting a candidate due to war.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited November 2014

    Scott_P said:

    @JohnRentoul: Riding back into town to save the Labour Party is "not my job nowadays": Blair. http://t.co/RVx3Ni3nPL

    Maybe if a bank or a sheikh bunged him ten million?

    or???? don't you mean 'and'
  • Speedy said:

    Danny565 said:

    I don't understand? According to the chart, all the parties are predicted to drop in May compared to this byelection....so where is all that lost support going?

    To Don't Knows.
    Then the campaign matters. Not something it is easy to make assumptions about, but UKIP have a good track record in the last two national campaigns - in 2013 and 2014 - of building support.
    Of course the campaign matters - and events, and the fact a GE is different to a by-election. Lots of things matter.

    Look back to the threads from when the election was called. The Tories were evidently going to throw the kitchen sink at this one. Reckless is no Carswell, we were told and Rochester will be no Clacton. Enough people believed this to push UKIP's price out to odds against.

    Then it all went quiet and pretty soon we were hearing that it was 'only a by-election' and it wouldn't be seismic if UKIP did win. To a punter this was tantamount to admitting that the kitchen sink had been thrown to minimal effect and it was now obvious Reckless would be coasting home. This latest poll confirms it.

    May is a long way off and a lot can happen but the trajectory of the national polls shows the combined score of Lab and Con slowly drifting down whilst UKIP's percentage climbs. Of course this can change, but there is no obvious reason why it should. In the circumstances it would be perfectly natural to assume that the trend will continue much as before.

    After Clacton, Farage indicated that he was expecting around five or six seats next May. If Reckless wins, he'll probably upgrade that estimate to about ten. That would be consistent with what the bookies are offering, having factored in the Rochester result which now looks a foregone conclusion.

    It pretty much goes without saying that if ten turns out to be correct, one of them is bound to be Rochester.
    Another point is that if Reckless wins this one convincingly large parts of Tory Kent are going to be under siege from Ukip in May.The Tories will not be able to concentrate on winning back Rochester.They will be fighting rearguard actions all over the County and also in Essex.
    In which case, UKIP will definitely lose Rochester - because their hubris will have spread them too thinly....
    They will be very well resourced financially.I agree there could be an issue in terms of whether they will have enough boots on the ground but don't the Tories have that problem as well?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    RodCrosby said:

    Out of interest: Has anybody lost at a GE after winning a by-election less than 6 months earlier?

    Yes, the one I can remember is the Langbaurgh by-election.

    Lab gained the seat in November 1991 and the Tories regained it in April 1992

    http://tinyurl.com/ry9ajr

    There are others I'm sure
    Kincardine & Deeside 1991
    Darlington 1983
    Govan 1973
    Motherwell 1945
    Caernarvon Boroughs 1945
    Middlesbrough West 1945
    Newport 1945
    There were two examples in 1905 (New Forest & Barkston Ash) where the by-election victors couldn't even take their seats, because Parliament wasn't sitting at the time. Both seats were lost in the January 1906 General Election...
  • Mr. Llama, wasn't his cat bullying his dog?
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    The contact rates are good with 10 days to go.2nd and 3rd canvasses are in order like a proper election.
    "Not surprisingly, the local campaign has been intense and closely fought. More than four out of five voters said they had received literature, direct mail, visits, telephone calls or emails from the Conservatives (81%) and UKIP (84%). Labour had reached just under two thirds of voters (63%) and the Lib Dems less than a quarter (24%)".

    These are always handy figures as they give an indication as to the level of ground operation.Ukip's has come a long way and it is reported they are trialling new data technology.If so they should have located the Labour vote to play the usual tune of "the only way to beat the Tories here is vote Ukip".The Tories don't have the sweet-smelling Helmer sewer effect as in Newark as the worst Reckless seems to have done is drink alcohol to excess on one occasion since when the man has been teetotal.Compared to Helmer,Reckless is an angel of mercy.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Scott_P said:

    @JohnRentoul: Riding back into town to save the Labour Party is "not my job nowadays": Blair. http://t.co/RVx3Ni3nPL

    Translation = Served their purpose so they can foxtrot Oscar.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    Danny565 said:

    I don't understand? According to the chart, all the parties are predicted to drop in May compared to this byelection....so where is all that lost support going?

    To Don't Knows.
    Then the campaign matters. Not something it is easy to make assumptions about, but UKIP have a good track record in the last two national campaigns - in 2013 and 2014 - of building support.
    Of course the campaign matters - and events, and the fact a GE is different to a by-election. Lots of things matter.

    Look back to the threads from when the election was called. The Tories were evidently going to throw the kitchen sink at this one. Reckless is no Carswell, we were told and Rochester will be no Clacton. Enough people believed this to push UKIP's price out to odds against.

    Then it all went quiet and pretty soon we were hearing that it was 'only a by-election' and it wouldn't be seismic if UKIP did win. To a punter this was tantamount to admitting that the kitchen sink had been thrown to minimal effect and it was now obvious Reckless would be coasting home. This latest poll confirms it.

    May is a long way off and a lot can happen but the trajectory of the national polls shows the combined score of Lab and Con slowly drifting down whilst UKIP's percentage climbs. Of course this can change, but there is no obvious reason why it should. In the circumstances it would be perfectly natural to assume that the trend will continue much as before.

    After Clacton, Farage indicated that he was expecting around five or six seats next May. If Reckless wins, he'll probably upgrade that estimate to about ten. That would be consistent with what the bookies are offering, having factored in the Rochester result which now looks a foregone conclusion.

    It pretty much goes without saying that if ten turns out to be correct, one of them is bound to be Rochester.
    Another point is that if Reckless wins this one convincingly large parts of Tory Kent are going to be under siege from Ukip in May.The Tories will not be able to concentrate on winning back Rochester.They will be fighting rearguard actions all over the County and also in Essex.
    In which case, UKIP will definitely lose Rochester - because their hubris will have spread them too thinly....
    They will be very well resourced financially.I agree there could be an issue in terms of whether they will have enough boots on the ground but don't the Tories have that problem as well?
    Indeed they threw the kitchen sink at Rochester, they would not be able to repeat it.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    UKIP figures blast European Arrest Warrant shambles

    Published Nov 11, 2014
    Nigel Farage, Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless have responded to the Government's failure to offer the Commons a vote on the European Arrest Warrant.

    UKIP Leader Nigel Farage said: "The failure to offer the Commons a vote, and thus the British public a say on the European Arrest Warrant, is a farce.

    "The Government has treated British democracy with customary contempt.

    "It's difficult to believe a word this Government says on any issue."

    UKIP MP Douglas Carswell: "David Cameron promised a vote on this issue in the Commons. His Whips tried to play it clever and fix procedure. It has backfired spectacularly.

    "Government Whips had to summon Cabinet Ministers back to rescue themselves from their own chaos."

    UKIP's Mark Reckless said: “The Home Affairs Select Committee agreed unanimously that Parliament should vote on an amendable motion when deciding whether to opt in to 35 EU Justice and Home Affairs measures and put the European Court of Justice in charge for the first time. We also demanded that there should be a separate vote on the European Arrest Warrant. The government's refusal to respect that advice ended in a procedural shambles tonight. It showed contempt for Parliament, the public, and democratic process. Voters in Rochester and Strood will have their chance to give their judgement next week and the country will follow next May."
  • List of applicants for Labour selection in Holborn and St Pancras and their statements

    http://www.camdennewjournal.com/holborn-longlist
  • Labour and Conservative voters not yet worked out tactical voting to beat UKIP.

    They need a suitable leaflet with a chart showing only we can beat UKIP.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,466
    edited November 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Out of interest: Has anybody lost at a GE after winning a by-election less than 6 months earlier?

    One of the most famous examples was Ossie O'Brien winning the Darlington by-election in March 1983 and then losing at the general election in June.

    Many people think the by-election result kept Michael Foot in place as Labour leader.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darlington_by-election,_1983
    That was a small margin, less than 5%.
    Which is to be expected that if the margin of victory isn't big in a byelection then they will lose it in the GE.
    IMO if a by-election candidate wins by more than 10% they're usually favourites to hold at the general, and I would apply that to Reckless.
    Yes, you have to look at them case by case, Andy, but I would have thought 10% or more at the by-election would see Reckless coasting in at the GE.

    He won't be singled out for special attention next May. The Tories will be firefighting in Kent generally, where there are maybe as many as ten vulnerable seats. Essex too will draw resources away. And of course UKIP itself will be fighting on a fairly narrow front, and should be able to give Reckless all the resources he needs.

    He's looking pretty safe, imo. Pretty sure he'll be odds on to retain the seat in May when odds are chalked up at the end of November.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Labour and Conservative voters not yet worked out tactical voting to beat UKIP.

    They need a suitable leaflet with a chart showing only we can beat UKIP.

    But the anti-Tory vote is paramount.
    Labour voters will vote for those who will stick it to the Tories.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Greens have decided to field a candidate in Nuneaton, a crucial marginal seat. This could be bad news for Labour because the Greens didn't stand in 2010 and that probably means at least few hundred votes that would have gone to Labour will now go to the Greens.

    http://greennuneaton.org.uk/ngp/?p=426
  • Speedy said:

    Labour and Conservative voters not yet worked out tactical voting to beat UKIP.

    They need a suitable leaflet with a chart showing only we can beat UKIP.

    But the anti-Tory vote is paramount.
    Labour voters will vote for those who will stick it to the Tories.
    Labour voters yet to learn they should hate UKIP more than hate Conservative.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Out of interest: Has anybody lost at a GE after winning a by-election less than 6 months earlier?

    One of the most famous examples was Ossie O'Brien winning the Darlington by-election in March 1983 and then losing at the general election in June.

    Many people think the by-election result kept Michael Foot in place as Labour leader.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darlington_by-election,_1983
    That was a small margin, less than 5%.
    Which is to be expected that if the margin of victory isn't big in a byelection then they will lose it in the GE.
    IMO if a by-election candidate wins by more than 10% they're usually favourites to hold at the general, and I would apply that to Reckless.
    Yes, you have to look at them case by case, Andy, but I would have thought 10% or more at the by-election would see Reckless coasting in at the GE.

    He won't be singled out for special attention next May. The Tories will be firefighting in Kent generally, where there are maybe as many as ten vulnerable seats. Essex too will draw resources away. And of course UKIP itself will be fighting on a fairly narrow front, and should be able to give Reckless all the resources he needs.

    He's looking pretty safe, imo. Pretty sure he'll be odds on to retain the seat in May when odds are chalked up at the end of November.
    I agree, 10% is the boundary.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited November 2014
    MikeK said:

    UKIP figures blast European Arrest Warrant shambles

    Published Nov 11, 2014
    Nigel Farage, Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless have responded to the Government's failure to offer the Commons a vote on the European Arrest Warrant.

    UKIP Leader Nigel Farage said: "The failure to offer the Commons a vote, and thus the British public a say on the European Arrest Warrant, is a farce...

    No mention of Labour's scheming to kill the debate off completely last night? Quelle surprise.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    Labour and Conservative voters not yet worked out tactical voting to beat UKIP.

    They need a suitable leaflet with a chart showing only we can beat UKIP.

    They're more interested in beating each other. The only people who prioritise defeating UKIP are on this website.

  • AndyJS said:

    The Greens have decided to field a candidate in Nuneaton, a crucial marginal seat. This could be bad news for Labour because the Greens didn't stand in 2010 and that probably means at least few hundred votes that would have gone to Labour will now go to the Greens.

    http://greennuneaton.org.uk/ngp/?p=426

    You raise an important point. What percentage will the Greens tally in such seats? 1% last time would have been 450 votes.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    Labour and Conservative voters not yet worked out tactical voting to beat UKIP.

    They need a suitable leaflet with a chart showing only we can beat UKIP.

    But the anti-Tory vote is paramount.
    Labour voters will vote for those who will stick it to the Tories.
    Labour voters yet to learn they should hate UKIP more than hate Conservative.
    Why they should hate UKIP more than the Tories?
    UKIP are more friendly to the poor and disenchanted and have a better reputation than the Tory party.
    Plus, the Tory party is their main electoral enemy, not UKIP.

    That is why they voted in the past for the LD if they had a better chance to beat the Tories in their seats, and that is why they won't vote for them now that they propped a Tory government.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Mr. Llama, wasn't his cat bullying his dog?


    Possibly, I only have the story second-hand from Herself. However, the vehement view of the ladies at the meeting was, apparently, the cat was there first, it was the dog's fault and only a cad would dump his cat. Osborne is therefore a cad and Nick Herbert, the local (Conservative) MP, being a de facto Osborne supporter can forget the ladies' votes let alone any active support.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    antifrank said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Greens have decided to field a candidate in Nuneaton, a crucial marginal seat. This could be bad news for Labour because the Greens didn't stand in 2010 and that probably means at least few hundred votes that would have gone to Labour will now go to the Greens.

    http://greennuneaton.org.uk/ngp/?p=426

    You raise an important point. What percentage will the Greens tally in such seats? 1% last time would have been 450 votes.
    Make that 1000 votes in May and you're covered.
  • Mr. Llama, saw it on a paper review. The mog was hounding the dog.

    Osborne was entirely right to side with the innocent party. My gast has been flabbered that you seem to be taking the part of the perpetrator.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    I am also fairly convinced UKIP will shed most of their euro support by next May. On previous form they'll shed about 80% of it.

    20% of their Euros support is 5.5%. Wanna take a bet they get more than 7.25% (ie. 30%)? What odds are you thinking?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    Moses_ said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JohnRentoul: Riding back into town to save the Labour Party is "not my job nowadays": Blair. http://t.co/RVx3Ni3nPL

    Translation = Served their purpose so they can foxtrot Oscar.
    Actually that's an embarrassing effort by Burley - the guy's in Sierra Leone in connection with the Ebola epidemic, and she only wants to ask him about the Labour Party? I think the party's very interesting and important, but honestly Ebola is actually more important right now, especially if he can shake up the aid effort.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    It's difficult to envisage the Tories holding Nuneaton by more than about 500 votes, which is why the Green intervention may prove to be so important.
  • Labour and Conservative voters not yet worked out tactical voting to beat UKIP.

    They need a suitable leaflet with a chart showing only we can beat UKIP.

    Bar charts? Did someone mention bar charts? :)

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/521313156636098560
  • Labour and Conservative voters not yet worked out tactical voting to beat UKIP.

    They need a suitable leaflet with a chart showing only we can beat UKIP.

    It certainly seems that Labour voters are more inclined to vote tactically than Tories.

    It would be interesting to know how those who voted Conservative in the Heywood and Middleton by-election now feel about missing the opportunity to defeat Labour, through the proxy of UKIP, and quite possibly defenestrating EdM in the process.

    I wonder if we have any such voters posting here on PB, and whether they could be persuaded to say a few words?

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Scott_P said:

    @CCHQPress: Labour's @DavidLammy says Labour won't win a majority with @Ed_Miliband and slams the "whole team" http://t.co/j6ylE1i2FZ

    Almost like he wants to distance himself from the central party so he can campaign for a job which is semi-independent.
    chestnut said:

    Rochester (excl DNV)

    UKIP 43 CON 34 LAB 17 GRN 4 LD 1

    Big swingback from UKIP to CON across the age groups and demographics in the future vote intention.

    Just when you thought you couldn't find a measure which got the LDs below 2. Who are these DNVs who now want to vote LD anyway? Sympathy voters?

    Subsamples are crazy.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    edited November 2014
    @RodCrosby @AndyJS @TSE @Neil

    Thanks for the by-elections victors losing at a GE soon afterwards
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    Labour and Conservative voters not yet worked out tactical voting to beat UKIP.

    They need a suitable leaflet with a chart showing only we can beat UKIP.

    It certainly seems that Labour voters are more inclined to vote tactically than Tories.

    It would be interesting to know how those who voted Conservative in the Heywood and Middleton by-election now feel about missing the opportunity to defeat Labour, through the proxy of UKIP, and quite possibly defenestrating EdM in the process.

    I wonder if we have any such voters posting here on PB, and whether they could be persuaded to say a few words?

    Sensible Tories don't want Ed defenestrated, nor do they want to give any further impetus to UKIP
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Afternoon all and never forget Crosby 1981. Shirley Williams overturned a 19,000 Tory majority over Labour to take the seat for the SDP with a majority over 5,000 and 2 years later the Tory candidate turfed her out with his majority over 3,000.

    Mark Reckless is no Shirley Williams. In fact he doesn't appear to be much of a Mark Reckless!! As I said this morning, strong chance Douglas Carswell will be the UKIP representation in the HoC on 8th May 2015.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited November 2014

    Labour and Conservative voters not yet worked out tactical voting to beat UKIP.

    They need a suitable leaflet with a chart showing only we can beat UKIP.

    It certainly seems that Labour voters are more inclined to vote tactically than Tories.

    It would be interesting to know how those who voted Conservative in the Heywood and Middleton by-election now feel about missing the opportunity to defeat Labour, through the proxy of UKIP, and quite possibly defenestrating EdM in the process.

    I wonder if we have any such voters posting here on PB, and whether they could be persuaded to say a few words?

    Sensible Tories don't want Ed defenestrated, nor do they want to give any further impetus to UKIP
    So sensible Tories want to keep the UKIP vote below 18% where it mainly undermines Tory chances instead of seeing it increase beyond that when it is considered by a number of commentators and psephologists as potentially impacting Labour more than the Tories ? I'm sure Ed Miliband is most grateful to sensible Tories for helping him into 10 Downing Street.

    Vote Tory get Labour!
  • @Jonny

    "Sensible Tories don't want Ed defenestrated, nor do they want to give any further impetus to UKIP "

    Yeah, that kind of thing is said a lot, here and elsewhere, and whilst it's all good fun the plain truth is that if you get the opportunity to remove the opposition Leader, you take it. It causes mayhem in their ranks and is a massive boost to your own Party's morale. And in this case it's hardly as if Labour had a surefire winner waiting in the wings to take over.

    It may not be stretching it too far to say the Blues may have missed an unexpected chance to win the GE there and then, in Middleton.

    If they could go back and have the chance again, do you not think they might have intimated to their voters that on this occasion a vote loaned to UKIP might do no harm?
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Has @shadsy‌ told us why he's suspended betting on UKIP most GE seats market yet? I thought it must be an admin error when I noticed it a couple of days ago, but that's looking less likely now. Surely he's not scared of losing that bet?!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Afternoon all and never forget Crosby 1981. Shirley Williams overturned a 19,000 Tory majority over Labour to take the seat for the SDP with a majority over 5,000 and 2 years later the Tory candidate turfed her out with his majority over 3,000.

    Mark Reckless is no Shirley Williams. In fact he doesn't appear to be much of a Mark Reckless!! As I said this morning, strong chance Douglas Carswell will be the UKIP representation in the HoC on 8th May 2015.

    Falklands war anyone?
  • Mr. Easterross, if UKIP wins 1 seat at the General Election that'd be a terrible result for them.

    Can't see it myself. A handful, outside chance of double figures, seems likelier to me.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    Labour and Conservative voters not yet worked out tactical voting to beat UKIP.

    They need a suitable leaflet with a chart showing only we can beat UKIP.

    It certainly seems that Labour voters are more inclined to vote tactically than Tories.

    It would be interesting to know how those who voted Conservative in the Heywood and Middleton by-election now feel about missing the opportunity to defeat Labour, through the proxy of UKIP, and quite possibly defenestrating EdM in the process.

    I wonder if we have any such voters posting here on PB, and whether they could be persuaded to say a few words?

    Sensible Tories don't want Ed defenestrated, nor do they want to give any further impetus to UKIP
    So sensible Tories want to keep the UKIP vote below 18% where it mainly undermines Tory chances instead of seeing it increase beyond that when it is considered by a number of commentators and psephologists as potentially impacting Labour more than the Tories ? I'm sure Ed Miliband is most grateful to sensible Tories for helping him into 10 Downing Street.

    Vote Tory get Labour!
    I suppose there's something in the fact that showing northerners that UKIP could win outside of Kent might have increased the chances of Labour losing seats to them in the GE
  • Afternoon all and never forget Crosby 1981. Shirley Williams overturned a 19,000 Tory majority over Labour to take the seat for the SDP with a majority over 5,000 and 2 years later the Tory candidate turfed her out with his majority over 3,000.

    Mark Reckless is no Shirley Williams. In fact he doesn't appear to be much of a Mark Reckless!! As I said this morning, strong chance Douglas Carswell will be the UKIP representation in the HoC on 8th May 2015.

    They're odds on in four seats, excluding Rochester.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2014
    Two hours in @peter_the_Punter

    No one wants to back the Tories at odds against for Rochester at the GE, despite their crowing at this poll

    Maybe they don't really believe it and are just distracting from the disaster that has been the Tory campaign, and their betting books
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989
    Evening all :)

    The Ashcroft poll suggests Reckless will prevail and not perhaps as bad a poll for Labour as some might have hoped/feared (delete as appropriate). As to next May, it tells us little or nothing apart from a predictable return to the duopoly.

    We've been here before so many times - in the past, the Liberal vote would travel up by-election beach before washing back into General Election Bay. If UKIP are holding 72% of their Conservative supporters, that provides the more mathematically-inclined with a sense of where the Tory vote might go but it also should be noted Labour moving back above 20% in the real contest so it's not a one-way street,

    The truth remains we are an Autumn Statement, a winter and a Budget away from Polling Day and anything can happen. I note today Boris has been hailing a 2.5% fare rise as an achievement - I suspect those of us who haven't seen their salaries go up 2.5% might disagree. That hits in January along with the Christmas bills.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited November 2014

    Afternoon all and never forget Crosby 1981. Shirley Williams overturned a 19,000 Tory majority over Labour to take the seat for the SDP with a majority over 5,000 and 2 years later the Tory candidate turfed her out with his majority over 3,000.

    Mark Reckless is no Shirley Williams. In fact he doesn't appear to be much of a Mark Reckless!! As I said this morning, strong chance Douglas Carswell will be the UKIP representation in the HoC on 8th May 2015.

    Well if Dave can recreate the conditions of the early 1980's (how's the negotiations with Argentina to invade the Falkland's going?) then this 'assessment' might have a modicum of feasibility. That is except for the reality that Cameron is not only not another Thatcher, he is not fit to adorn the underside of Maggie's shoe as yesterday's outrageous disgraceful shaming farce demonstrated.

    IIRC you at least once predicted before the last election that the Tories would take six Scottish seats?That one worked out well now didn't it.............?
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited November 2014

    Labour and Conservative voters not yet worked out tactical voting to beat UKIP.

    They need a suitable leaflet with a chart showing only we can beat UKIP.

    It certainly seems that Labour voters are more inclined to vote tactically than Tories.

    It would be interesting to know how those who voted Conservative in the Heywood and Middleton by-election now feel about missing the opportunity to defeat Labour, through the proxy of UKIP, and quite possibly defenestrating EdM in the process.

    I wonder if we have any such voters posting here on PB, and whether they could be persuaded to say a few words?

    Sensible Tories don't want Ed defenestrated, nor do they want to give any further impetus to UKIP
    So sensible Tories want to keep the UKIP vote below 18% where it mainly undermines Tory chances instead of seeing it increase beyond that when it is considered by a number of commentators and psephologists as potentially impacting Labour more than the Tories ? I'm sure Ed Miliband is most grateful to sensible Tories for helping him into 10 Downing Street.

    Vote Tory get Labour!
    I suppose there's something in the fact that showing northerners that UKIP could win outside of Kent might have increased the chances of Labour losing seats to them in the GE
    If there is a chance that an opponent can undermine another more important opponent you take it! You don't see Labour working hard to split the UKIP vote down south now do you?
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    @Jonny

    "Sensible Tories don't want Ed defenestrated, nor do they want to give any further impetus to UKIP "

    Yeah, that kind of thing is said a lot, here and elsewhere, and whilst it's all good fun the plain truth is that if you get the opportunity to remove the opposition Leader, you take it. It causes mayhem in their ranks and is a massive boost to your own Party's morale. And in this case it's hardly as if Labour had a surefire winner waiting in the wings to take over.

    It may not be stretching it too far to say the Blues may have missed an unexpected chance to win the GE there and then, in Middleton.

    If they could go back and have the chance again, do you not think they might have intimated to their voters that on this occasion a vote loaned to UKIP might do no harm?

    While I can see that Lab changing leader and the infighting that would likely follow could have helped the Tories to a degree, I can't imagine that it would've helped more than the advantage they get from having weird Ed front and centre during the GE. If he had been booted out I expect the fairly likeable Johnson would have overcome whatever has put him off letting his name be put forward now, and though I think he'd be an appalling PM, I'm pretty sure he'd be a massive electoral asset compared to Miliband
  • isam said:

    Two hours in @peter_the_Punter

    No one wants to back the Tories at odds against for Rochester at the GE, despite their crowing at this poll

    Maybe they don't really believe it and are just distracting from the disaster that has been the Tory campaign, and their betting books

    Nobody? Not a single person?!

    Well you do surprise me young Samuel. I'd have thought you'd have taken thousands of pounds in bets by now. I can only conclude that all those posters indicating that Rochester would return a Conservative next May are either non-punters, or were merely trying to talk their team up. Shame on them!

    On a more serious note, you and I have proper bets on the turnout being under 50%. I should say the uncompetitive nature of the contest is rather playing into our hands. What do you think?

    I'm afraid the weather forecast is against us a bit though. Do we need to do a rain dance?
  • Sub-optimal.

    Will betfair let me alter my bet to May not November.... seems only fair, we are dealing with a squalid few months for the squatter to stay on for.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2014
    UKIP have stroke back at the cheesy Tory ads with an even worse ad:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-WgVZLVhyY

    What this ad needs desperately is a voice over or to turn down the volume of that appalling music so you can hear the MP's in the background.
  • Patrick said:

    Hmm...I wonder if your 'average kipper' hates Dave or Redward more. I'm guessing Redward.

    I'm guessing the opposite. Some UKIPpers seem to be under the touching impression that if Miliband is allowed into power, he'll be so terrible the people will come to their senses, and vote UKIP in 2020. This strategy worked so well for the Tories in 1997, of course.

    UKIPpers hate, and usually they genuinely do hate, Cameron and the Tories because they are the main obstacle to them. They are the incumbents on the right and in England. As such Cameron, by capturing those votes, does UKIP more harm than Miliband, who is the incumbent on the left and in Wales and some of Scotland. There are few pickings there for UKIP. What they want is to become the default party on the right and therefore their main enemy is not Miliband, but Cameron.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    isam said:

    Two hours in @peter_the_Punter

    No one wants to back the Tories at odds against for Rochester at the GE, despite their crowing at this poll

    Maybe they don't really believe it and are just distracting from the disaster that has been the Tory campaign, and their betting books

    Maybe they think they'll get better odds when the bookies price it up in two weeks?
  • isam said:

    Two hours in @peter_the_Punter

    No one wants to back the Tories at odds against for Rochester at the GE, despite their crowing at this poll

    Maybe they don't really believe it and are just distracting from the disaster that has been the Tory campaign, and their betting books

    Maybe they think they'll get better odds when the bookies price it up in two weeks?
    Bingo!
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited November 2014
    To those who were pointing out last night what a gent Bercow was/is and only doing his job, I thought about this opinion during the day and it occurred to me that those who were really good at being Speaker such as Betty Boothroyd, George Thomas and Bernard Wetherill, None of them would have behaved as Bercow did, words would have been had behind closed doors.

    Bercow isn't up to the job, he should either go, or be forced out. All Bercow thinks about IMHO is Bercow. He doesn't know when to keep his trap shut.
  • CD13 said:

    Moses,

    "Last time I remember seeing the "pig dog" term was when I was reading the small A5 type size war comics after the war telling the stories about the battles of the Second World War."

    Was that Battler Brittan or something like that?"

    I believe it was "Donner und blitzen" and "Schweinhhund" and "Kamerad" and of course, "Hande hoch" when he took most of an army group prisoner.

    There was Commando comic and also War Picture Library. A few years ago they were reissued in multi-book paperbacks about twice the the original size, presumably because the original market is now 40 years older and shorter sighted. I have a couple, they are the thickness of Butterworth's Company Law, but more violent.

    http://www.amazon.co.uk/No-Surrender-Action-packed-Adventures-Library%22/dp/1853757608/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1415729941&sr=8-1&keywords=war+picture+library
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited November 2014
    Given Cameron awful, Farage being so awesome and Kippers soaring I would be expecting 4/1 for Cons to retake this seat.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,220
    So I guess the thinking here is that the by election won't affect the state of the Government, but when they vote in the GE then things will be different.

    Of course, the same applies to tactical anit-UKIP voting. It's one thing to do it in a by election, it's quite another to do it in a GE. Will Labour voters really vote Conservative and vice versa and potentially risk helping their 'side' to an overall majority?
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited November 2014
    On topic. I think its fair to say that any seat UKIP take will be at risk the next time it is up for the taking. UKIP has to face the reality they are still a relatively new party and absolute novices in the eyes of voters in Parliamentary Terms. If one of the established parties comes up with a persuasive new narrative then certainly I'd expect any UKIP seat to be at risk.

    However that is not to say that UKIP are not up to the challenge. Clearly given the way they have taken their opportunities over the last two years they are currently extremely focused on the task at hand and one can expect that continue into the election.

    Secondly as others have pointed poll or no poll the major parties will have 630 other battles to think about, many more critical than Rochester and as a result if Reckless has a double figure lead its likely not to attract the same levels of resource from the Tories in particular. Remember this is the Tories throwing the kitchen sink at the constituency and still coming up 12 points short. What happens in May is likely to be very very different.

    Thirdly exactly what are the major parties going to change as far as narrative? Both are already peddling the relatively steady as she goes, statist/ corporatist, status quo, managed decline message that has dominated politics for the last 50 years and clearly more and more people are rejecting it. These late by elections are dry-runs for the general electrion and whilst parties might hone their approach the basic messages are not going to change.

    The only parties in England offering an alternative are UKIP and the Greens (whose policy portfolio is truly worrying) therefore who else are those dissatisfied with the status quo going to vote for?

    Consequently I expect UKIP will hold the seats they have taken in by elections.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Turnout in Clacton was about 10% lower than I expected, and also lower than Carswell expected judging by the slight look of disappointment he had during the declaration.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    To those who were pointing out last night what a gent Bercow was/is and only doing his job, I thought about this opinion during the day and it occurred to me that those who were really good at being Speaker such as Betty Boothroyd, George Thomas and Bernard Wetherill, None of them would have behaved as Bercow did, words would have been had behind closed doors.

    Bercow isn't up to the job, he should either go, or be forced out. All Bercow thinks about IMHO is Bercow. He doesn't know when to keep his trap shut.

    And anyone who is in any doubt should read what Dan Hodges says happened. There is no reason not to believe its absolutely true.
  • isam said:

    Two hours in @peter_the_Punter

    No one wants to back the Tories at odds against for Rochester at the GE, despite their crowing at this poll

    Maybe they don't really believe it and are just distracting from the disaster that has been the Tory campaign, and their betting books

    Maybe they think they'll get better odds when the bookies price it up in two weeks?
    Bingo!
    I shudder to think how much I'm going to need to stake on the 3rd time lucky approach betting against the pigdog EU nutjobs..... going down 2k it seems.

    Hey ho, tis but a flesh wound as someone suggested below!! Roll on May.
  • TGOHF said:

    Given Cameron awful, Farage being so awesome and Kippers soaring I would be expecting 4/1 for Cons to retake this seat.

    In Lord A's poll only 45% of the Kippers thought he was awesome... better than Labour / Ed (well big wow) but comfortably behind Tory / Cammo in their magnificent awesomeness.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited November 2014
    Speedy said:

    UKIP have stroke back at the cheesy Tory ads with an even worse ad:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-WgVZLVhyY

    What this ad needs desperately is a voice over or to turn down the volume of that appalling music so you can hear the MP's in the background.

    Sounded fine on my PC's internal speaker. You might want to check your settings? I agree the music is dross but there again do you want people humming the tune rather than listening to the words?
  • AndyJS said:

    Turnout in Clacton was about 10% lower than I expected, and also lower than Carswell expected judging by the slight look of disappointment he had during the declaration.

    Yeah, but it bloody rained in Clacton, contrary to what the weather forecast promised. Grrrrr.....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    The depressing reality of the UK today — more downward mobility than upward:

    "That growth in professional employment has now slowed. As a result, it has become harder for those at the bottom to move upwards. Moreover, children from affluent families face more of a struggle to replicate their parents’ standard of living (think unpaid internships and endless “extra-curricular” activities). The depressing result is that downward mobility is on the rise whereas upward mobility is becoming increasingly rare."

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21631141-social-mobility-still-possible-often-wrong-direction-what-goes-up
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited November 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Turnout in Clacton was about 10% lower than I expected, and also lower than Carswell expected judging by the slight look of disappointment he had during the declaration.

    But could that be the shape of things to come? After all the major parties haven't exactly got an alluring message to offer. £30 billion in cuts and perhaps a few tax cuts down the line from the Tories and a marginally different balance from Labour? Unless you are an NHS obsessive there is very little in the major party offerings.

    Furthermore there is seemingly little or no enthusiasm for either of the major parties. Will their largely disenchanted voters who do not want to change their vote sit on their hands instead?


  • F1: red button 9.30pm Wednesday, Murray Walker will be hosting a title-deciding programme:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/29936546
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @SquareRoot

    'And anyone who is in any doubt should read what Dan Hodges says happened. There is no reason not to believe its absolutely true.'

    Very interesting,I had expected the EAW to easily pass & couldn't understand therefore why there wasn't a specific vote.

    I hadn't counted on Bercow playing games.
  • There must be a real chance of further Tory defections if Reckless wins by a good margin,particularly in the light of yesterday's events.I think Ashcroft's supplemental question about next year's VI was definitely designed to try and ward that off and is of very dubious reliability. From what I have seen on the ground in R&S.the problem for the Tories and indeed UKIP is getting undecideds off the fence next Thursday yet alone getting them to address how to vote in 6 months time and I think the turnout level will be quite low in certain parts of the constituency for this reason.
  • On topic. I think its fair to say that any seat UKIP take will be at risk the next time it is up for the taking. UKIP has to face the reality they are still a relatively new party and absolute novices in the eyes of voters in Parliamentary Terms. If one of the established parties comes up with a persuasive new narrative then certainly I'd expect any UKIP seat to be at risk.

    However that is not to say that UKIP are not up to the challenge. Clearly given the way they have taken their opportunities over the last two years they are currently extremely focused on the task at hand and one can expect that continue into the election.

    Secondly as others have pointed poll or no poll the major parties will have 630 other battles to think about, many more critical than Rochester and as a result if Reckless has a double figure lead its likely not to attract the same levels of resource from the Tories in particular. Remember this is the Tories throwing the kitchen sink at the constituency and still coming up 12 points short. What happens in May is likely to be very very different.

    Thirdly exactly what are the major parties going to change as far as narrative? Both are already peddling the relatively steady as she goes, statist/ corporatist, status quo, managed decline message that has dominated politics for the last 50 years and clearly more and more people are rejecting it. These late by elections are dry-runs for the general electrion and whilst parties might hone their approach the basic messages are not going to change.

    The only parties in England offering an alternative are UKIP and the Greens (whose policy portfolio is truly worrying) therefore who else are those dissatisfied with the status quo going to vote for?

    Consequently I expect UKIP will hold the seats they have taken in by elections.

    It's quite reasonable to hope for UKIP to retain seats of defectors. After all they were/are already sitting MPs. This is an unusual situation and UKIP have yet to win a seat that they didn't already have, via defection.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    I'm still yet to be convinced by anyone's reasoning for their anger at the vote last night. As I said then it reminds me so much of the Lisbon treaty/cast-iron guarantee fury. Either this anger is confected, or those suffering it don't understand (or perhaps have ignored) the quite reasonable explanation behind what the government did.

    There didn't have to be a vote on it. If it had been Blair or Brown (or weird Ed) in charge there almost certainly wouldn't have been, it would have just happened behind closed doors. The vote was on just the eleven measures not already in uk law. You can't actually have a vote on writing things into our law that are already there (thanks, let's not forget, to the duplicitous Brown). The government had categorically stated that if this vote was lost they'd reject the entire package. If there were enough MPs against the EAW they could have voted it down. There weren't so they didn't.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Moses_ said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JohnRentoul: Riding back into town to save the Labour Party is "not my job nowadays": Blair. http://t.co/RVx3Ni3nPL

    Translation = Served their purpose so they can foxtrot Oscar.
    Actually that's an embarrassing effort by Burley - the guy's in Sierra Leone in connection with the Ebola epidemic, and she only wants to ask him about the Labour Party? I think the party's very interesting and important, but honestly Ebola is actually more important right now, especially if he can shake up the aid effort.
    Nick I would agree entirely


    How many times have other politicians from "other" parties ( on the right) been treated this way. Without any comment or perhaps unfair call from someone as honourable as your good self


    That would be precisely none....
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited November 2014

    Patrick said:

    Hmm...I wonder if your 'average kipper' hates Dave or Redward more. I'm guessing Redward.

    I'm guessing the opposite. Some UKIPpers seem to be under the touching impression that if Miliband is allowed into power, he'll be so terrible the people will come to their senses, and vote UKIP in 2020. This strategy worked so well for the Tories in 1997, of course.

    UKIPpers hate, and usually they genuinely do hate, Cameron and the Tories because they are the main obstacle to them. They are the incumbents on the right and in England. As such Cameron, by capturing those votes, does UKIP more harm than Miliband, who is the incumbent on the left and in Wales and some of Scotland. There are few pickings there for UKIP. What they want is to become the default party on the right and therefore their main enemy is not Miliband, but Cameron.
    Like most PBTories, you are making the mistake of assuming that the hardcore UKIP activists (who mostly are erstwhile Tories who think Cameron isn't Tory enough) are exactly the same as UKIP's voters.

    All the polls consistently show Kippers are fairly equally split between wanting a Labour government or a Tory government - though admittedly they much prefer Cameron to Miliband as PM. But the idea that all Kippers are people who are just voting for them because they want the Tories to be even more Toryish/Thatcherite just doesn't stand up to scrutiny.
  • Labour and Conservative voters not yet worked out tactical voting to beat UKIP.

    They need a suitable leaflet with a chart showing only we can beat UKIP.

    Bar charts? Did someone mention bar charts? :)

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/521313156636098560
    Yes, but Clacton was self-inflicted by UKIP. They already had the MP for Clacton.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    john_zims said:

    @SquareRoot

    'And anyone who is in any doubt should read what Dan Hodges says happened. There is no reason not to believe its absolutely true.'

    Very interesting,I had expected the EAW to easily pass & couldn't understand therefore why there wasn't a specific vote.

    I hadn't counted on Bercow playing games.

    Neither has I , and that's why I think his days are numbered. We shall see. I was absolutely aghast when I read the real reasons..

  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Mr. Llama, wasn't his cat bullying his dog?


    Possibly, I only have the story second-hand from Herself. However, the vehement view of the ladies at the meeting was, apparently, the cat was there first, it was the dog's fault and only a cad would dump his cat. Osborne is therefore a cad and Nick Herbert, the local (Conservative) MP, being a de facto Osborne supporter can forget the ladies' votes let alone any active support.
    So in a nutshell Nick Herbert will not stand up for the local pussy. Fair enough...

    I'm voting UCAT then

  • Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Danny565 said:

    I don't understand? According to the chart, all the parties are predicted to drop in May compared to this byelection....so where is all that lost support going?

    To Don't Knows.
    Then the campaign matters. Not something it is easy to make assumptions about, but UKIP have a good track record in the last two national campaigns - in 2013 and 2014 - of building support.

    Then it all went quiet and pretty soon we were hearing that it was 'only a by-election' and it wouldn't be seismic if UKIP did win. To a punter this was tantamount to admitting that the kitchen sink had been thrown to minimal effect and it was now obvious Reckless would be coasting home. This latest poll confirms it.

    May is a long way off and a lot can happen but the trajectory of the national polls shows the combined score of Lab and Con slowly drifting down whilst UKIP's percentage climbs. Of course this can change, but there is no obvious reason why it should. In the circumstances it would be perfectly natural to assume that the trend will continue much as before.

    After Clacton, Farage indicated that he was expecting around five or six seats next May. If Reckless wins, he'll probably upgrade that estimate to about ten. That would be consistent with what the bookies are offering, having factored in the Rochester result which now looks a foregone conclusion.

    It pretty much goes without saying that if ten turns out to be correct, one of them is bound to be Rochester.
    Another point is that if Reckless wins this one convincingly large parts of Tory Kent are going to be under siege from Ukip in May.The Tories will not be able to concentrate on winning back Rochester.They will be fighting rearguard actions all over the County and also in Essex.
    In which case, UKIP will definitely lose Rochester - because their hubris will have spread them too thinly....
    They will be very well resourced financially.I agree there could be an issue in terms of whether they will have enough boots on the ground but don't the Tories have that problem as well?
    Indeed they threw the kitchen sink at Rochester, they would not be able to repeat it.
    They won't have to. By-elections are for protest voting.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    I can see UKIP potentially winning 8-10 seats in Essex and Kent alone, but outside of that I can only see 2 very strong chances of gains: Boston & Skegness and Great Yarmouth.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2014
    Following on from Nuneaton, we have another marginal where the Greens have just selected a candidate for a constituency they didn't stand in last time, Hastings & Rye:

    https://twitter.com/bowers_jake
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/c08.stm

    If the Tories hold Nuneaton and Hastings by tiny majorities it may be because of the Green interventions.
  • Jeez - he's now channelling Eddie Kruger

    Douglas Carswell MP ✔ @DouglasCarswell
    Ashcroft poll in #Rochester shows Messina isn't working. Messina won't save you. Corporate parties can be beat
  • He's such a rebel against the establishment....

    Lord Ashcroft ✔ @LordAshcroft
    @DouglasCarswell the @LordAshcroft poll....please
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,466
    edited November 2014
    @Logical Song

    UKIP are odds on in Thurrock, South Thanet and Boston, all seats where 'defection' doesn't come into it.

    Are you suggesting the odds are wrong?

    My guess is after Rochester, they will go odds on in a number of other seats too. UKIP have been the value bet all year but I can't see that lasting very much longer.
  • There must be a real chance of further Tory defections if Reckless wins by a good margin,particularly in the light of yesterday's events.I think Ashcroft's supplemental question about next year's VI was definitely designed to try and ward that off and is of very dubious reliability. From what I have seen on the ground in R&S.the problem for the Tories and indeed UKIP is getting undecideds off the fence next Thursday yet alone getting them to address how to vote in 6 months time and I think the turnout level will be quite low in certain parts of the constituency for this reason.

    The turnout in May will indeed be higher than on Thursday week. Those GE voters will include very few new UKIP voters, unless enthused by a new UKIP MP. By contrast, there'll be plenty who want to cast a vote to determine the shape of the next government but who aren't interested in what they may perceive as a vanity show of a by-election.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    The depressing reality of the UK today — more downward mobility than upward:

    "That growth in professional employment has now slowed. As a result, it has become harder for those at the bottom to move upwards. Moreover, children from affluent families face more of a struggle to replicate their parents’ standard of living (think unpaid internships and endless “extra-curricular” activities). The depressing result is that downward mobility is on the rise whereas upward mobility is becoming increasingly rare."

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21631141-social-mobility-still-possible-often-wrong-direction-what-goes-up

    Tallies with my experience, our baby boomer parents had it easy. Many gone down a rung, or two, in social class.
This discussion has been closed.