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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ashcroft Rochester poll has Reckless on course to win next
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ashcroft Rochester poll has Reckless on course to win next week’s by-election for UKIP but for CON to retake the seat next May
The detail of the Ashcroft Rochester poll are jjust out and feature in the chart above. The 12% UKIP lead is very much in line with other recent Rochester polling from Survation and ComRes and unless there’s a sharp turnaround in the the next week Mark Reckless looks to set return to Westminster.
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They'll win it back in May 2015 and show the pig dog traitor what a loser he is.
We're playing the long game.
Better to lose a battle than the war.
Take note Hannibal fans.
Sky news. Reporting -- Blair takes several direct questions to finally back Miliband. Not enthusiastic ..
Oh dear
#SaveEd
Normal service now resumes.....
Edit - 4th on
Sending out candidates in this sort of situation is WWI “Over the Top” stuff.
would settle for that..
Con 36, UKIP 35, Lab 21, LD 2 Grns 5, Others 1.
Question/Table 4 here
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Rochester-Strood-poll-summary-141111.pdf
Mike's figures include DKs
Exactly what I was saying this morning, a by election is a free hit.
This is probably the most important finding in the poll. Well done to his Lordship for posing the question.
Good for Tories. Bad for UKIP and Labour.
That little caveat about GE intention vs 'sticking it to 'em now' is surely hugely significant. If Dave doesn't win many kippers back in May we get Redward. If enough see sense and realise a kipper vote is a Redward vote we get PM Dave.
I'm wondering if the Tory-vote-eating kipper element may wither on the vine down south and in middle England while the Labour-WWC Vote-eating kipper element, esp up north, may go from strength to strength.
I'll give you 11/10 only Ukip and Con count
One at a time, your size
I wonder if this actually signifies a very soft UKIP vote for the by-election? At the very least it suggests there might be scope for the Conservatives to erode the UKIP lead.
Then Labour's vote goes DOWN in May when they are voting for Prime Minister Ed Miliband.....
There certainly is.
Whenever I've mentioned this it has been pooh-pooh'd, but I have spoken to many people who have been voting UKIP this year but "won't for the real thing."
And there you have it.
"For Rochester voters as a whole the biggest reason for their choice of party was that “they have the best policies on particular issues I care about”. UKIP voters were more likely than most to say a large part of their decision had been that the party “has the best candidate locally” (70%)"
Is the drop in the NOTA party (UKIP in this instance) in line with the traditional concept of swingback?
The other question remaining for this election is how will turnout hold up on a cold wet windy late November day. Will the vote shares swing in favour of UKIP or Con if they plummet to 50% or 40% turn out. I don't know who will have the most motivated voters.
Despite the jitters it's more likely the kippers will simply reduce Cameron's tendancy of piling up votes where they don't count.
As ever it's what happens in the hundred or so marginals that will count.
57% of them gave the following as a reason
"To send a message that I’m unhappy with the party I usually support"
"And I'll tell you, honestly, I will love it if we beat them. Love it. But it really has got to me. I've voiced it live, not in front of the press or anywhere. I'm not even going to the press conference. But the battle is still on and UKIP have not won this yet."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/17981540
But all three parties pretty close to the last poll some weeks ago, so looks as though people have largely decided.
Logically those are tactical voters who will consider their vote tactically in May.
The BBC weather is showing sun and showers for next Thursday. UKIP are going to have to get out all their converts from the Can't Be Arsed Party. This will be quite a test.
I expect UKIP to win, but maybe by 5%. They will then have to pour their limited resources in Kent into holding this seat in May.
A poll suggesting a 1 point lead in six months time is fun for TSE to get excited over but not much more than that.
The whole thing sounds somewhat, er, reckless.
Someone who's opinion to be discounted for election predictions.
This is when it is a delight to be posting on a betting Site, rather than a straight political Site. There's only so much spin that can be put on the ball. The movement in the odds, or lack of it in this case, is the simplest and surest way of killing the spin.
If anybody seriously thinks Reckless is likely to lose in May they can make shedloads, either by selling UKIP on Sporting Index or laying the 1.57 'Over 5 Seats' on Betfair. Since neither price has moved since the poll was announced, we can take it that Reckless's chances remain undiminished.
It looks like he will win comfortably enough, which means he should go on to win again in May. That's what a punter would expect from LA's poll.
Let me know if you get any takers. I like a laugh.
German soldier word bubble "actung Englander pig dog" was normally followed by the bubble
" take that Fritz"
We always won of course...
How times change?
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/11/11/david-lammy-ed-miliband-labour-party_n_6138638.html?1415722440
"Last time I remember seeing the "pig dog" term was when I was reading the small A5 type size war comics after the war telling the stories about the battles of the Second World War."
Was that Battler Brittan or something like that?"
I believe it was "Donner und blitzen" and "Schweinhhund" and "Kamerad" and of course, "Hande hoch" when he took most of an army group prisoner.
The tories have dug themselves the loveliest hole in the world with their open primary. What do they do for a GE candidate if she continues to bomb in the by-election? Stick, replace by usual means, replace in another open primary?
Surprised he has time being he's moving house out of his constituency to a better one where there are better schools. Cough!
And that is if the margin of victory for UKIP is the same as Lord A says, if it's bigger (which other polls suggest) by even 2%, they win even without the D/K.
Lab gained the seat in November 1991 and the Tories regained it in April 1992
http://tinyurl.com/ry9ajr
There are others I'm sure
The most electorally beneficial thing righties can do is to put clear messages in front of voters per marginal seat and make it absolutely clear to them how to keep Redward away - sometimes that must mean vote Nigel / sometimes vote Dave. Clearly neither Dave or Nigel can push for this 'backdoor electoral pact'. But there's nothing to stop activists / sponsors / the Daily Mail / party members of either Tory or UKIP who aren't mutually hostile and just want to avoid the horror of a Labour administration / the CBI / the City / anyone with a mortgage / etc / etc just doing it anyway. A massive and massively well organised grass roots campaign could achieve a filleting of Labour in the marginals. Where do I send my money?
Comforting to know so many Ukip voters will return to the Tories next year, and the general election campaign hasn't even started yet (which I am presuming will be good for the Tories but not necessarily so).
When you have to shoot, shoot, dont talk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvSZ_HQmZgQ
Probably not for my parents though it was probably just a different era with different set of problems.
UKIP 43 CON 34 LAB 17 GRN 4 LD 1
Big swingback from UKIP to CON across the age groups and demographics in the future vote intention.
Absolutely not.
Last month ... "We're going for this one to show that pig-dog he won't benefit from his treachery."
This week ... "OK, we'll lose this one but we're playing the long game. We'll win in May."
June 2015 ... "Bah! tis only a flesh wound."
So where does the snapshot turn into a prediction for betting purposes?
Day before? Exit poll?
UKIP DE's: 64%
UKIP C2's: 56%
LAB AB's: 23%
LAB C2's: 11%
LAB DE's: 13%
Poor people have left the Labour party to vote for UKIP.
Also staying at home is not a valid option as I'll bet £100 at evens that GE turnout > By-election turnout.
'True, Kelly "the tool" Tolhurst's car crash debate yesterday might impact the final result.'
Reckless didn't exactly cover himself in glory, sitting like a rabbit caught in headlights & not exactly cheered to the rafters by the audience.
1) Lord Ashcroft's polls are generally fairly UKIP-friendly, and we shall need to see the 2014 result to see how these findings relate to the votes on the day (yes, I know it's a snapshot not a prediction, but still...)
2) the Don't Knows for 2015 come disproportionately from 2014 UKIP supporters. That should be good news for UKIP, I'd have thought.
From the viewpoint of David Cameron, it doesn't really matter whether Lord Ashcroft's findings about 2015 are right, however. They're sufficiently scary for would-be defectors to make them think twice.
If I were considering a defection, I'd want a juicy UKIP target lined up for me to chicken-run to, unless I was already in one of the very most favourable seats from a UKIP perspective. I note that Basildon South & East Thurrock and Portsmouth South are both lacking UKIP candidates right now.
#justsaying
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9049
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/methodology/
Its two words normally so technically for full scoring points it would need to be with a space.
Mili crapperoo