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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ashcroft Rochester poll has Reckless on course to win next

SystemSystem Posts: 11,794
edited November 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ashcroft Rochester poll has Reckless on course to win next week’s by-election for UKIP but for CON to retake the seat next May

The detail of the Ashcroft Rochester poll are jjust out and feature in the chart above. The 12% UKIP lead is very much in line with other recent Rochester polling from Survation and ComRes and unless there’s a sharp turnaround in the the next week Mark Reckless looks to set return to Westminster.

Read the full story here


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Comments

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    As accurately foretold by me yesterday

    They'll win it back in May 2015 and show the pig dog traitor what a loser he is.

    We're playing the long game.

    Better to lose a battle than the war.

    Take note Hannibal fans.
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    If this poll is accurate, then we can infer that UKIP will under perform to expectations next May.
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    I am also fairly convinced UKIP will shed most of their euro support by next May. On previous form they'll shed about 80% of it.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited November 2014
    Off topic sorry to do this when second on. (TSE is first as he knows when the thread changes of course... hurumf!)

    Sky news. Reporting -- Blair takes several direct questions to finally back Miliband. Not enthusiastic ..

    Oh dear

    #SaveEd

    Normal service now resumes.....


    Edit - 4th on
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    If this poll is accurate, then we can infer that UKIP will under perform to expectations next May.

    If that polls is accurate UKIP will over-perform expectations next May.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited November 2014
    I don't understand? According to the chart, all the parties are predicted to drop in May compared to this byelection....so where is all that lost support going?
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,362
    edited November 2014
    Someone in LibDem HQ MUST have a plan! Surely!

    Sending out candidates in this sort of situation is WWI “Over the Top” stuff.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Danny565 said:

    I don't understand? According to the chart, all the parties are predicted to drop in May compared to this byelection....so where is all that lost support going?

    To Don't Knows.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Interesting - probably a poll which is worst for the LDs who? and Labour - even with a good candidate also-rans in a seat they'd normally expect to win in a by-election.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,295
    If Reckless wins by a convincing margin, it's very likely that he'll hold on next May.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    "but for CON to retake the seat next May"

    would settle for that..
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2014
    Sean_F said:

    If Reckless wins by a convincing margin, it's very likely that he'll hold on next May.

    I agree a 15-20 margin and he holds it in May.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,341
    edited November 2014
    Danny565 said:

    I don't understand? According to the chart, all the parties are predicted to drop in May compared to this byelection....so where is all that lost support going?

    Looking at the Lord A poll, it would be next May

    Con 36, UKIP 35, Lab 21, LD 2 Grns 5, Others 1.

    Question/Table 4 here

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Rochester-Strood-poll-summary-141111.pdf

    Mike's figures include DKs
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,292
    Will the Tories need a better candidate to retake this seat? It looks like wishful thinking from Ashcroft, does incumbency not have any weight or does that only apply to LDs?
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    'But there’s a huge sting in the tale for Reckless. The sample was also asked how they’s vote in next May’s general election and CON has a 1% lead.'

    Exactly what I was saying this morning, a by election is a free hit.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Sean_F said:

    If Reckless wins by a convincing margin, it's very likely that he'll hold on next May.

    I think that will depend considerably on how he performs and if past practice is anything to go by....
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    BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    "But there’s a huge sting in the tale for Reckless. The sample was also asked how they’s vote in next May’s general election and CON has a 1% lead."

    This is probably the most important finding in the poll. Well done to his Lordship for posing the question.

    Good for Tories. Bad for UKIP and Labour.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2014

    Danny565 said:

    I don't understand? According to the chart, all the parties are predicted to drop in May compared to this byelection....so where is all that lost support going?

    Looking at the Lord A poll, it would be next May

    Con 36, UKIP 35, Lab 21, LD 2 Grns 5, Others 1.

    Question/Table 4 here

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Rochester-Strood-poll-summary-141111.pdf

    Mike's figures that is before DKs
    Since Reckless will do better in the byelection than Lord A suggest in his poll, then its a UKIP hold.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited November 2014
    By election Protest vote? shot across Dave's bows?

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    Wow!

    That little caveat about GE intention vs 'sticking it to 'em now' is surely hugely significant. If Dave doesn't win many kippers back in May we get Redward. If enough see sense and realise a kipper vote is a Redward vote we get PM Dave.

    I'm wondering if the Tory-vote-eating kipper element may wither on the vine down south and in middle England while the Labour-WWC Vote-eating kipper element, esp up north, may go from strength to strength.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    felix said:

    Sean_F said:

    If Reckless wins by a convincing margin, it's very likely that he'll hold on next May.

    I think that will depend considerably on how he performs and if past practice is anything to go by....
    And which party he is in next May..
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    More than happy to accommodate anyone who wants to take conservatives to beat Ukip in a Rochester match bet for the GE.

    I'll give you 11/10 only Ukip and Con count

    One at a time, your size
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    The difference between the by-election and GE intention does seem very odd. Even if in practice voters would behave differently, I wouldn't expect so many of them to say so at this time (telling a pollster you'll vote UKIP at the GE is an even more free hit than actually doing so in a by-election).

    I wonder if this actually signifies a very soft UKIP vote for the by-election? At the very least it suggests there might be scope for the Conservatives to erode the UKIP lead.
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    dr_spyn said:

    Will the Tories need a better candidate to retake this seat? It looks like wishful thinking from Ashcroft, does incumbency not have any weight or does that only apply to LDs?

    Lord Ashcroft asked people why they are voting the way they are next week, it explains how it plausible for the pig dog traitor to win next week and lose next May.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    This poll is good for Reckless and UKIP, he will win with a margin somewhere between Survation and Lord A and win in May too since an out-performance of even 2% over Lord A puts him in the lead.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,488
    Labour 27% off the pace in the by-election. The Tories were only 20% off the pace in Hazel Blears' Salford and Eccles seat in 2010, for instance.....

    Then Labour's vote goes DOWN in May when they are voting for Prime Minister Ed Miliband.....
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Danny565 said:

    I don't understand? According to the chart, all the parties are predicted to drop in May compared to this byelection....so where is all that lost support going?

    To "don't know".
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    audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    "That is small and there’s a long way to go but there’s a very strong message there."

    There certainly is.

    Whenever I've mentioned this it has been pooh-pooh'd, but I have spoken to many people who have been voting UKIP this year but "won't for the real thing."

    And there you have it.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    dr_spyn said:

    Will the Tories need a better candidate to retake this seat? It looks like wishful thinking from Ashcroft, does incumbency not have any weight or does that only apply to LDs?

    Lord Ashcroft asked people why they are voting the way they are next week, it explains how it plausible for the pig dog traitor to win next week and lose next May.
    From Lord A:
    "For Rochester voters as a whole the biggest reason for their choice of party was that “they have the best policies on particular issues I care about”. UKIP voters were more likely than most to say a large part of their decision had been that the party “has the best candidate locally” (70%)"
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Speedy said:

    Danny565 said:

    I don't understand? According to the chart, all the parties are predicted to drop in May compared to this byelection....so where is all that lost support going?

    Looking at the Lord A poll, it would be next May

    Con 36, UKIP 35, Lab 21, LD 2 Grns 5, Others 1.

    Question/Table 4 here

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Rochester-Strood-poll-summary-141111.pdf

    Mike's figures that is before DKs
    Since Reckless will do better in the byelection than Lord A suggest in his poll, then its a UKIP hold.
    The vote block that will be squeezed is Labour. I don't see them favouring Conservatives over UKIP.
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    The only party to retain the same level for May 2015 is Green. Is that bad for Labour?

    Is the drop in the NOTA party (UKIP in this instance) in line with the traditional concept of swingback?

    The other question remaining for this election is how will turnout hold up on a cold wet windy late November day. Will the vote shares swing in favour of UKIP or Con if they plummet to 50% or 40% turn out. I don't know who will have the most motivated voters.
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    "Tory Europhiles are pig-dog traitors" - discuss :)
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,314
    edited November 2014
    Patrick said:

    Wow!

    That little caveat about GE intention vs 'sticking it to 'em now' is surely hugely significant. If Dave doesn't win many kippers back in May we get Redward. If enough see sense and realise a kipper vote is a Redward vote we get PM Dave.

    I'm wondering if the Tory-vote-eating kipper element may wither on the vine down south and in middle England while the Labour-WWC Vote-eating kipper element, esp up north, may go from strength to strength.

    we've yet to see the Northern version of UKIP take a seat.

    Despite the jitters it's more likely the kippers will simply reduce Cameron's tendancy of piling up votes where they don't count.

    As ever it's what happens in the hundred or so marginals that will count.
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    Speedy said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Will the Tories need a better candidate to retake this seat? It looks like wishful thinking from Ashcroft, does incumbency not have any weight or does that only apply to LDs?

    Lord Ashcroft asked people why they are voting the way they are next week, it explains how it plausible for the pig dog traitor to win next week and lose next May.
    From Lord A:
    "For Rochester voters as a whole the biggest reason for their choice of party was that “they have the best policies on particular issues I care about”. UKIP voters were more likely than most to say a large part of their decision had been that the party “has the best candidate locally” (70%)"
    I was thinking about this bit re UKIP voters

    57% of them gave the following as a reason

    "To send a message that I’m unhappy with the party I usually support"
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,314

    "That is small and there’s a long way to go but there’s a very strong message there."

    There certainly is.

    Whenever I've mentioned this it has been pooh-pooh'd, but I have spoken to many people who have been voting UKIP this year but "won't for the real thing."

    And there you have it.

    pooh pooh
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    As accurately foretold by me yesterday

    TSE channels Sean T :)

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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited November 2014

    Speedy said:

    Danny565 said:

    I don't understand? According to the chart, all the parties are predicted to drop in May compared to this byelection....so where is all that lost support going?

    Looking at the Lord A poll, it would be next May

    Con 36, UKIP 35, Lab 21, LD 2 Grns 5, Others 1.

    Question/Table 4 here

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Rochester-Strood-poll-summary-141111.pdf

    Mike's figures that is before DKs
    Since Reckless will do better in the byelection than Lord A suggest in his poll, then its a UKIP hold.
    The vote block that will be squeezed is Labour. I don't see them favouring Conservatives over UKIP.
    I'm amazed to see Labour's share fall between BE and GE. I'd have guessed a chunk of reds would be temporarily purple, just to stick it to the current goverment. That would imply a sharp uptick in May when they revert to voting for Labour, not the fall shown in the poll. Curious.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    "Tory Europhiles are pig-dog traitors" - discuss :)

    Execution's too good for 'em!
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,314

    Speedy said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Will the Tories need a better candidate to retake this seat? It looks like wishful thinking from Ashcroft, does incumbency not have any weight or does that only apply to LDs?

    Lord Ashcroft asked people why they are voting the way they are next week, it explains how it plausible for the pig dog traitor to win next week and lose next May.
    From Lord A:
    "For Rochester voters as a whole the biggest reason for their choice of party was that “they have the best policies on particular issues I care about”. UKIP voters were more likely than most to say a large part of their decision had been that the party “has the best candidate locally” (70%)"
    I was thinking about this bit re UKIP voters

    57% of them gave the following as a reason

    "To send a message that I’m unhappy with the party I usually support"
    That sort of says they're as likely to not bother voting as return to the fold.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,001
    edited November 2014
    Dave Cameron:

    "And I'll tell you, honestly, I will love it if we beat them. Love it. But it really has got to me. I've voiced it live, not in front of the press or anywhere. I'm not even going to the press conference. But the battle is still on and UKIP have not won this yet."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/17981540
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,392
    The secondary questions always need a little pinch of salt. For instance, 32% of Tories and 36% of Labour supporters say they are voting for these parties partly "As a general protest to show that you are unhappy with all the main parties at the moment". Er, you what??

    But all three parties pretty close to the last poll some weeks ago, so looks as though people have largely decided.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Time to sell Kipper seats at 11 ?
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,885
    I agree with those who say that if Reckless wins comfortably (15%+), he should hold but if it's only a 10% or so gap, then a small drift back to the Tories, along with less protest voters will inevitably make it very close.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    TGOHF said:

    Time to sell Kipper seats at 11 ?

    Was it not said this is "a snapshot" not a poll? What difference that makes I am not sure? I am sure I am about to be told and corrected.
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    1% is surely too close to call at GE2015?
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I've seen the tables for May and the D/K who are 18% are 10% UKIP, 6% CON, 5% LAB from the by-election
    Logically those are tactical voters who will consider their vote tactically in May.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,488
    philiph said:

    The only party to retain the same level for May 2015 is Green. Is that bad for Labour?

    Is the drop in the NOTA party (UKIP in this instance) in line with the traditional concept of swingback?

    The other question remaining for this election is how will turnout hold up on a cold wet windy late November day. Will the vote shares swing in favour of UKIP or Con if they plummet to 50% or 40% turn out. I don't know who will have the most motivated voters.

    Question: what proportion of the DNV in 2010 now have a postal vote? That could hurt UKIP.

    The BBC weather is showing sun and showers for next Thursday. UKIP are going to have to get out all their converts from the Can't Be Arsed Party. This will be quite a test.

    I expect UKIP to win, but maybe by 5%. They will then have to pour their limited resources in Kent into holding this seat in May.

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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited November 2014
    Patrick said:

    Wow!

    That little caveat about GE intention vs 'sticking it to 'em now' is surely hugely significant. If Dave doesn't win many kippers back in May we get Redward. If enough see sense and realise a kipper vote is a Redward vote we get PM Dave.

    I'm wondering if the Tory-vote-eating kipper element may wither on the vine down south and in middle England while the Labour-WWC Vote-eating kipper element, esp up north, may go from strength to strength.

    I doubt the split will be as clear cut on geographic lines. In the South I think we might see the UKIP vote switch to the Conservatives in marginals where there is a chance of the Conservatives losing to Labour but to remain firm elsewhere (which would see UKIP keep their existing two seats and maybe pick-up a few more). In the North I really wouldn't like to express a view.

    A poll suggesting a 1 point lead in six months time is fun for TSE to get excited over but not much more than that.
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    MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Anorak said:

    Speedy said:

    Danny565 said:

    I don't understand? According to the chart, all the parties are predicted to drop in May compared to this byelection....so where is all that lost support going?

    Looking at the Lord A poll, it would be next May

    Con 36, UKIP 35, Lab 21, LD 2 Grns 5, Others 1.

    Question/Table 4 here

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Rochester-Strood-poll-summary-141111.pdf

    Mike's figures that is before DKs
    Since Reckless will do better in the byelection than Lord A suggest in his poll, then its a UKIP hold.
    The vote block that will be squeezed is Labour. I don't see them favouring Conservatives over UKIP.
    I'm amazed to see Labour's share fall between BE and GE. I'd have guessed a chunk of reds would be temporarily purple, just to stick it to the current goverment. That would imply a sharp uptick in May when they revert to voting for Labour, not the fall shown in the poll. Curious.
    That figure's wrong, apparently will increase from 17% to 21%
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited November 2014
    If the GE will be too close to call, what polling did Farage show to Reckless to get him to jump in the first place?

    The whole thing sounds somewhat, er, reckless.

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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    philiph said:

    The only party to retain the same level for May 2015 is Green. Is that bad for Labour?

    Is the drop in the NOTA party (UKIP in this instance) in line with the traditional concept of swingback?

    The other question remaining for this election is how will turnout hold up on a cold wet windy late November day. Will the vote shares swing in favour of UKIP or Con if they plummet to 50% or 40% turn out. I don't know who will have the most motivated voters.

    Question: what proportion of the DNV in 2010 now have a postal vote? That could hurt UKIP.

    The BBC weather is showing sun and showers for next Thursday. UKIP are going to have to get out all their converts from the Can't Be Arsed Party. This will be quite a test.

    I expect UKIP to win, but maybe by 5%. They will then have to pour their limited resources in Kent into holding this seat in May.

    "I expect UKIP to win, but maybe by 5%"
    Someone who's opinion to be discounted for election predictions.
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    The difference between the by-election and GE intention does seem very odd. Even if in practice voters would behave differently, I wouldn't expect so many of them to say so at this time (telling a pollster you'll vote UKIP at the GE is an even more free hit than actually doing so in a by-election).

    I wonder if this actually signifies a very soft UKIP vote for the by-election? At the very least it suggests there might be scope for the Conservatives to erode the UKIP lead.

    I would have thought it must suggest a soft UKIP vote. I am not sure I would go along with the idea that labour voters would not vote for an official torey candidate when the UKIP one is so obviously the public schoolboy they would normally vote against.
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    isam said:

    More than happy to accommodate anyone who wants to take conservatives to beat Ukip in a Rochester match bet for the GE.

    I'll give you 11/10 only Ukip and Con count

    One at a time, your size

    Lol! I don't think you are likely to be knocked over in the rush, Isam.

    This is when it is a delight to be posting on a betting Site, rather than a straight political Site. There's only so much spin that can be put on the ball. The movement in the odds, or lack of it in this case, is the simplest and surest way of killing the spin.

    If anybody seriously thinks Reckless is likely to lose in May they can make shedloads, either by selling UKIP on Sporting Index or laying the 1.57 'Over 5 Seats' on Betfair. Since neither price has moved since the poll was announced, we can take it that Reckless's chances remain undiminished.

    It looks like he will win comfortably enough, which means he should go on to win again in May. That's what a punter would expect from LA's poll.

    Let me know if you get any takers. I like a laugh.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    I think kipper votes next week will return to both Labour and the Conservatives next year. Not sure Reckless will win by more than 12% next week - depends on the proportion of dnv's in his total for this poll.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited November 2014

    dr_spyn said:

    Will the Tories need a better candidate to retake this seat? It looks like wishful thinking from Ashcroft, does incumbency not have any weight or does that only apply to LDs?

    Lord Ashcroft asked people why they are voting the way they are next week, it explains how it plausible for the pig dog traitor to win next week and lose next May.
    Last time I remember seeing the "pig dog" term was when I was reading the small A5 type size war comics after the war telling the stories about the battles of the Second World War."

    German soldier word bubble "actung Englander pig dog" was normally followed by the bubble

    " take that Fritz"

    We always won of course...

    How times change?
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    Out of interest: Has anybody lost at a GE after winning a by-election less than 6 months earlier?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @CCHQPress: Labour's @DavidLammy says Labour won't win a majority with @Ed_Miliband and slams the "whole team" http://t.co/j6ylE1i2FZ
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Out of interest: Has anybody lost at a GE after winning a by-election less than 6 months earlier?

    Margo Macdonald?

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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Moses_ said:

    TGOHF said:

    Time to sell Kipper seats at 11 ?

    Was it not said this is "a snapshot" not a poll? What difference that makes I am not sure? I am sure I am about to be told and corrected.
    All polls are 'snapshots not predictions'.
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    Moses,

    "Last time I remember seeing the "pig dog" term was when I was reading the small A5 type size war comics after the war telling the stories about the battles of the Second World War."

    Was that Battler Brittan or something like that?"

    I believe it was "Donner und blitzen" and "Schweinhhund" and "Kamerad" and of course, "Hande hoch" when he took most of an army group prisoner.
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Fieldwork before the Kelly is crap factor came to the fore.

    The tories have dug themselves the loveliest hole in the world with their open primary. What do they do for a GE candidate if she continues to bomb in the by-election? Stick, replace by usual means, replace in another open primary?
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    felix said:

    Surprised he has time being he's moving house out of his constituency to a better one where there are better schools. Cough!
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2014
    Analyzing the poll through the tables, most of the difference between the byelection and May figures are 10% UKIP to D/K and 11% UKIP to CON assuming the 10% D/K are anti-Tory tactical voters who don't know yet how they'll vote in May, it's a UKIP hold.
    And that is if the margin of victory for UKIP is the same as Lord A says, if it's bigger (which other polls suggest) by even 2%, they win even without the D/K.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,341
    edited November 2014

    Out of interest: Has anybody lost at a GE after winning a by-election less than 6 months earlier?

    Yes, the one I can remember is the Langbaurgh by-election.

    Lab gained the seat in November 1991 and the Tories regained it in April 1992

    http://tinyurl.com/ry9ajr

    There are others I'm sure
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    Patrick said:

    Wow!

    That little caveat about GE intention vs 'sticking it to 'em now' is surely hugely significant. If Dave doesn't win many kippers back in May we get Redward. If enough see sense and realise a kipper vote is a Redward vote we get PM Dave.

    I'm wondering if the Tory-vote-eating kipper element may wither on the vine down south and in middle England while the Labour-WWC Vote-eating kipper element, esp up north, may go from strength to strength.

    I doubt the split will be as clear cut on geographic lines. In the South I think we might see the UKIP vote switch to the Conservatives in marginals where there is a chance of the Conservatives losing to Labour but to remain firm elsewhere (which would see UKIP keep their existing two seats and maybe pick-up a few more). In the North I really wouldn't like to express a view.

    A poll suggesting a 1 point lead in six months time is fun for TSE to get excited over but not much more than that.
    Hmm...I wonder if your 'average kipper' hates Dave or Redward more. I'm guessing Redward. So good for Dave. I'm also wondering how politically savvy and ready / willing to engage in tactical voting they are (esp in marginals). I'm guessing close to zero. Not so good for Dave.

    The most electorally beneficial thing righties can do is to put clear messages in front of voters per marginal seat and make it absolutely clear to them how to keep Redward away - sometimes that must mean vote Nigel / sometimes vote Dave. Clearly neither Dave or Nigel can push for this 'backdoor electoral pact'. But there's nothing to stop activists / sponsors / the Daily Mail / party members of either Tory or UKIP who aren't mutually hostile and just want to avoid the horror of a Labour administration / the CBI / the City / anyone with a mortgage / etc / etc just doing it anyway. A massive and massively well organised grass roots campaign could achieve a filleting of Labour in the marginals. Where do I send my money?
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Ishmael_X said:

    Fieldwork before the Kelly is crap factor came to the fore.

    The tories have dug themselves the loveliest hole in the world with their open primary. What do they do for a GE candidate if she continues to bomb in the by-election? Stick, replace by usual means, replace in another open primary?

    I wouldn't say she's bombed at all. In terms of by-elections she is probably doing quite well in these rather odd circumstances. The UKIP bubble isn't entirely the real world.
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    Neil said:

    Out of interest: Has anybody lost at a GE after winning a by-election less than 6 months earlier?

    Margo Macdonald?

    Are you aware JohnO has invited me to the pre Dirty Dicks cocktail party?
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Speedy said:

    Analyzing the poll through the tables, most of the difference between the byelection and May figures are 10% UKIP to D/K and 11% UKIP to CON assuming the 10% D/K are anti-Tory tactical voters who don't know yet how they'll vote in May, it'a a UKIP hold.

    Lol - you keep posting the same point - don't panic Mr Mainwaring!
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    felix said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Fieldwork before the Kelly is crap factor came to the fore.

    The tories have dug themselves the loveliest hole in the world with their open primary. What do they do for a GE candidate if she continues to bomb in the by-election? Stick, replace by usual means, replace in another open primary?

    I wouldn't say she's bombed at all. In terms of by-elections she is probably doing quite well in these rather odd circumstances. The UKIP bubble isn't entirely the real world.
    I don't live in a Ukip bubble, I am not a kipper, but I have heard her on the radio. She is ed-level crap.

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    MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Not a bad poll under the circumstances for the Tories. Obviously they would prefer to win but I think hopes got raised too high after Newark. After all how many by-election seats are retained by governing parties?

    Comforting to know so many Ukip voters will return to the Tories next year, and the general election campaign hasn't even started yet (which I am presuming will be good for the Tories but not necessarily so).
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    Incidentally, are they counting overnight, or waiting until the morning?
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    Speedy said:

    Danny565 said:

    I don't understand? According to the chart, all the parties are predicted to drop in May compared to this byelection....so where is all that lost support going?

    To Don't Knows.
    Then the campaign matters. Not something it is easy to make assumptions about, but UKIP have a good track record in the last two national campaigns - in 2013 and 2014 - of building support.
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Surely a big difference for those voting UKIP in this by-election compared to the GE is that next week they won't be voting for PM Milicraperoo.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    felix said:

    Speedy said:

    Analyzing the poll through the tables, most of the difference between the byelection and May figures are 10% UKIP to D/K and 11% UKIP to CON assuming the 10% D/K are anti-Tory tactical voters who don't know yet how they'll vote in May, it'a a UKIP hold.

    Lol - you keep posting the same point - don't panic Mr Mainwaring!
    Doomed !
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Ishmael_X said:

    Fieldwork before the Kelly is crap factor came to the fore.

    The tories have dug themselves the loveliest hole in the world with their open primary. What do they do for a GE candidate if she continues to bomb in the by-election? Stick, replace by usual means, replace in another open primary?

    True, Kelly "the tool" Tolhurst's car crash debate yesterday might impact the final result.
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    Surely a big difference for those voting UKIP in this by-election compared to the GE is that next week they won't be voting for PM Milicraperoo.

    From this poll, re the Kipper voters 53% say I am dissatisfied with the job DC is doing as PM but I’d still prefer to have him as PM rather than Ed Miliband
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    I dont understand this whole "sending a message" thing. If voter's vote one way in the byelection and a different way in the real election, it's the voters who need to get the message not the politicians, and the message is "no one cares about your message because they know you will switch back at the election." The only way to have credibility is to vote the same way in both elections. If we sit here saying UKIP will lose the seat in the election because the voters will switch back, you can bet Cameron's advisers will be telling him the same thing.

    When you have to shoot, shoot, dont talk.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvSZ_HQmZgQ
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Surely a big difference for those voting UKIP in this by-election compared to the GE is that next week they won't be voting for PM Milicraperoo.

    From this poll, re the Kipper voters 53% say I am dissatisfied with the job DC is doing as PM but I’d still prefer to have him as PM rather than Ed Miliband
    Messrs Cameron and Miliband will not be standing in Rochester next May.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Speedy said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Fieldwork before the Kelly is crap factor came to the fore.

    The tories have dug themselves the loveliest hole in the world with their open primary. What do they do for a GE candidate if she continues to bomb in the by-election? Stick, replace by usual means, replace in another open primary?

    True, Kelly "the tool" Tolhurst's car crash debate yesterday might impact the final result.
    Hilarious - the fear is palpable.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    CD13 said:

    Moses,

    "Last time I remember seeing the "pig dog" term was when I was reading the small A5 type size war comics after the war telling the stories about the battles of the Second World War."

    Was that Battler Brittan or something like that?"

    I believe it was "Donner und blitzen" and "Schweinhhund" and "Kamerad" and of course, "Hande hoch" when he took most of an army group prisoner.

    Yes indeed and most probably. I was racking my brain as to what the comics were called . I do Remember Schweininhund and the obligatory hande hoch !! though. Don't forget Schnell! I think the Hornet and the Hotspur also had some great pieces on WW2 if I also recollect correctly? ( and football of course) Happy days really it all seemed so straightforward and simple then.

    Probably not for my parents though it was probably just a different era with different set of problems.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Rochester (excl DNV)

    UKIP 43 CON 34 LAB 17 GRN 4 LD 1

    Big swingback from UKIP to CON across the age groups and demographics in the future vote intention.
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    Surely a big difference for those voting UKIP in this by-election compared to the GE is that next week they won't be voting for PM Milicraperoo.

    From this poll, re the Kipper voters 53% say I am dissatisfied with the job DC is doing as PM but I’d still prefer to have him as PM rather than Ed Miliband
    Messrs Cameron and Miliband will not be standing in Rochester next May.
    But everyone will know that only one of them can be PM the day after. Vote Tory for Cameron, vote UKIP for craperoo
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,341
    edited November 2014

    Surely a big difference for those voting UKIP in this by-election compared to the GE is that next week they won't be voting for PM Milicraperoo.

    From this poll, re the Kipper voters 53% say I am dissatisfied with the job DC is doing as PM but I’d still prefer to have him as PM rather than Ed Miliband
    Messrs Cameron and Miliband will not be standing in Rochester next May.
    Indeed, but the Tories won't be saying things like "Go to bed with Nigel and wake up with Ed as PM" during the general election campaign.

    Absolutely not.
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    Mr Eagles ...

    Last month ... "We're going for this one to show that pig-dog he won't benefit from his treachery."

    This week ... "OK, we'll lose this one but we're playing the long game. We'll win in May."


    June 2015 ... "Bah! tis only a flesh wound."
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Surely a big difference for those voting UKIP in this by-election compared to the GE is that next week they won't be voting for PM Milicraperoo.

    From this poll, re the Kipper voters 53% say I am dissatisfied with the job DC is doing as PM but I’d still prefer to have him as PM rather than Ed Miliband
    Messrs Cameron and Miliband will not be standing in Rochester next May.
    Indeed, but the Tories won't be saying things like "Go to bed with Nigel and wake up with Ed as PM" during the general election campaign.

    Absolutely not.
    You'd think they'd drop failed campaign messages, but maybe not. After all what positive messages could they possibly find after 5 years in government?
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    I'm pleased to note that, currently, Milicraperoo returns no search results on google
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    One piece of news that has been around for a few days but may only just starting to register is the fact that George Osborne has dumped his cat, Freya, in favour of some lap-dog. According to my informant who has just returned from the Florence Wintergreen Ladies Allotment Society and Baking Circle monthly afternoon tea, that act will change some peoples' perception of him and will not do him or his party any favours - there are an awful lot of cat loving ladies who would normally be relied upon to vote Conservative.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited November 2014

    Moses_ said:

    TGOHF said:

    Time to sell Kipper seats at 11 ?

    Was it not said this is "a snapshot" not a poll? What difference that makes I am not sure? I am sure I am about to be told and corrected.
    All polls are 'snapshots not predictions'.
    Thanks AD and Of course. It was just mentioned in the thread before last.

    So where does the snapshot turn into a prediction for betting purposes?

    Day before? Exit poll?
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited November 2014
    Labour manages to lose pretty much the same proportion of it's vote to UKIP as the Tories in both Nov 2014 and May 2015.

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,141
    Where on earth have the LD-GRN-LAB-CON-UKIP collective gone at the GE ?!
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Things overlooked in the tables:
    UKIP DE's: 64%
    UKIP C2's: 56%

    LAB AB's: 23%
    LAB C2's: 11%
    LAB DE's: 13%

    Poor people have left the Labour party to vote for UKIP.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,141
    GE2015 adds up to 76% - unless the SNP are suddenly going to start surging I have no idea where the voters are going to go !

    Also staying at home is not a valid option as I'll bet £100 at evens that GE turnout > By-election turnout.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited November 2014
    @Speedy

    'True, Kelly "the tool" Tolhurst's car crash debate yesterday might impact the final result.'

    Reckless didn't exactly cover himself in glory, sitting like a rabbit caught in headlights & not exactly cheered to the rafters by the audience.
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    2014 seems to be a fairly clear UKIP gain now. As for 2015:

    1) Lord Ashcroft's polls are generally fairly UKIP-friendly, and we shall need to see the 2014 result to see how these findings relate to the votes on the day (yes, I know it's a snapshot not a prediction, but still...)

    2) the Don't Knows for 2015 come disproportionately from 2014 UKIP supporters. That should be good news for UKIP, I'd have thought.

    From the viewpoint of David Cameron, it doesn't really matter whether Lord Ashcroft's findings about 2015 are right, however. They're sufficiently scary for would-be defectors to make them think twice.

    If I were considering a defection, I'd want a juicy UKIP target lined up for me to chicken-run to, unless I was already in one of the very most favourable seats from a UKIP perspective. I note that Basildon South & East Thurrock and Portsmouth South are both lacking UKIP candidates right now.

    #justsaying
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited November 2014
    Moses_ said:

    Moses_ said:

    TGOHF said:

    Time to sell Kipper seats at 11 ?

    Was it not said this is "a snapshot" not a poll? What difference that makes I am not sure? I am sure I am about to be told and corrected.
    All polls are 'snapshots not predictions'.
    Thanks AD and Of course. It was just mentioned in the thread before last.

    So where does the snapshot turn into a prediction for betting purposes?

    Day before? Exit poll?
    Looked at together, they reveal trends.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9049

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/methodology/
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    there are an awful lot of cat loving ladies who would normally be relied upon to vote Conservative.

    Didn't most of the "twinset and pearls" vote already move to UKIP ?

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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    I'm pleased to note that, currently, Milicraperoo returns no search results on google

    That's known as. "Google whack "

    Its two words normally so technically for full scoring points it would need to be with a space.

    Mili crapperoo

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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    GE2015 adds up to 76% - unless the SNP are suddenly going to start surging I have no idea where the voters are going to go !

    Also staying at home is not a valid option as I'll bet £100 at evens that GE turnout > By-election turnout.

    Most of those D/K are C2's&DE's from UKIP.
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Moses_ said:

    I'm pleased to note that, currently, Milicraperoo returns no search results on google

    That's known as. "Google whack "

    Its two words normally so technically for full scoring points it would need to be with a space.

    Mili crapperoo

    Isn't that when it returns just one page?
This discussion has been closed.