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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Poll finding of the week: 15% tell YouGov they’d heard of a politician who doesn’t exist

Excellent from YouGov & a reminder how to treat polls. 15% said they'd heard of politician who doesn't exit. Men most pic.twitter.com/y2RwefTG2L

Read the full story here

fitalass

Poor Judgement from Nick Clegg and the Libdems, this simple crass.

Tim Montgomerie ‏@montie 5 mins5 minutes ago
Do we really need party political branding on Remembrance Day messages? https://twitter.com/nick_clegg/status/531348639659360256 …

MarqueeMark

fitalass said:

Poor Judgement from Nick Clegg and the Libdems, this simple crass.

Tim Montgomerie ‏@montie 5 mins5 minutes ago
Do we really need party political branding on Remembrance Day messages? https://twitter.com/nick_clegg/status/531348639659360256 …

It does rather lend itself to an appendage

"Unlike the Liberal Democrats. No-one will remember them next May..."

edmundintokyo

Top polling - placebo options should be a standard way to establish a null hypothesis in any poll, especially on things like resignations and referendums.

MarqueeMark

15% - plus another 6% who aren't sure. 21% of the voters don't know they have been had.

Which is probably quite low, all things considered.

isam

Andrew Farmer will have his revenge on YouGov

MarqueeMark

Most of the Shadow Cabinet are getting behind Andrew Farmer as we speak....

maaarsh

Nice to see OGH went for a snide reference to a statistically irrelevant split (men most 16 v 14) but chose to ignore the significantly more honest (/disengaged) support UKIP collect.

Swiss_Bob

I recognise him, he's in the Tennessee House of Representatives!

Stick that YouGOv.

DecrepitJohnL

Andrew Farmer is or was listed as Yougov's PR manager. Hmm.

Morris_Dancer

How long until Miliband has a lower leadership rating than a fictional member of the Shadow Cabinet?

MarqueeMark

Morris_Dancer said:

How long until Miliband has a lower leadership rating than a fictional member of the Shadow Cabinet?

How long before Miliband can find no-one to fill his Shadow Cabinet?

Grandiose

MarqueeMark said:

fitalass said:

Poor Judgement from Nick Clegg and the Libdems, this simple crass.

Tim Montgomerie ‏@montie 5 mins5 minutes ago
Do we really need party political branding on Remembrance Day messages? https://twitter.com/nick_clegg/status/531348639659360256 …

It does rather lend itself to an appendage

"Unlike the Liberal Democrats. No-one will remember them next May..."

Are they obliged to?

CarlottaVance

The other 'finding of the week' is that UKIP voters are twice as likely to claim to have first had sex at 15 or under than other party voters.

Colour me sceptical.......

AndyJS

What this shows is that a lot of men don't like to admit not knowing something they think they ought to know about.

Moses_

MarqueeMark said:

Most of the Shadow Cabinet are getting behind Andrew Farmer as we speak....

#webackFarmer

maaarsh

AndyJS said:

What this shows is that a lot of men don't like to admit not knowing something they think they ought to know about.

The difference between men and women is statistically irrelevant.

It does seem to show that UKIP voters have considerably less self esteem tied up in impressing polling companies.

DecrepitJohnL

AndyJS said:

What this shows is that a lot of men don't like to admit not knowing something they think they ought to know about.

Maybe, though the test is flawed in that the name might sound vaguely familiar since both parts are common, and more importantly, respondents might easily have seen the name Andrew Farmer on the Yougov site itself, given that he worked there.

Swiss_Bob

DecrepitJohnL said:

AndyJS said:

What this shows is that a lot of men don't like to admit not knowing something they think they ought to know about.

Maybe, though the test is flawed in that the name might sound vaguely familiar since both parts are common, and more importantly, respondents might easily have seen the name Andrew Farmer on the Yougov site itself, given that he worked there.

And the fact that they chose the name of an actual politician?

edmundintokyo

maaarsh said:

AndyJS said:

What this shows is that a lot of men don't like to admit not knowing something they think they ought to know about.

The difference between men and women is statistically irrelevant.

It does seem to show that UKIP voters have considerably less self esteem tied up in impressing polling companies.

Could be the other way around: People who want to impress pollsters won't admit they're going to vote UKIP even though they are. Lots of shy Kippers out there?

tpfkar

But would Andrew Farmer make a better labour leader than Ed? We need to know

Morris_Dancer

Off now, but for those who haven't seen it my pre-race piece is here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/brazil-pre-race.html

MarqueeMark

tpfkar said:

But would Andrew Farmer make a better labour leader than Ed? We need to know

Andrew Farmer's policies are still a blank sheet of paper. So about on a par with Ed then....

megalomaniacs4u

Given a quick google turns up a politician called Andrew Farmer, the few can be forgiven for their poor google-fu

CarlottaVance

maaarsh said:

AndyJS said:

What this shows is that a lot of men don't like to admit not knowing something they think they ought to know about.

It does seem to show that UKIP voters have considerably less self esteem tied up in impressing polling companies.

Except when it comes to losing their virginity.....

Swiss_Bob

megalomaniacs4u said:

Given a quick google turns up a politician called Andrew Farmer, the few can be forgiven for their poor google-fu

I keep telling them. See below.

YouGov have dropped a bollock because as you say, a quick Google search reveals as the top link an American Politician.

Speedy

It's no surprise to me, 1/6th of the public has been proved to have the IQ of G.W.Bush in the past as well, there were 2 polls in both America and Britain that showed the same number supporting nuclear war.

audreyanne

Good.

I know this is a shock to pb people but most people couldn't care a less about politics. And of those that do, only a small fraction know much about it.

By the way, I also don't know anyone who gives a flying fig about the EU. Some care about immigration (and loads don't), but I haven't heard anyone outside pb.com talking about the EU for over a year. Cue you-kippers talking about 'my circles,' but have you actually thought that it might be the ones you-kip-keep?

audreyanne

Speedy said:

It's no surprise to me, 1/6th of the public has been proved to have the IQ of G.W.Bush

Typical arrogance. It's not about IQ. It's because for most people politics is not only dull, it actually doesn't impinge much on their lives. Amazing. But true.

felix

Poll finding of the week: 15% tell YouGov they’d heard of a politician who doesn’t exist.

Not far short of the current UKIP averages:)

manofkent2014

Interesting that Kippers are far less likely to have identified this person than the other three and that Labour and Libdems are the worst (with three times as many Libdems actually recognising who this person is)

foxinsoxuk

I used to work with Andrew Farmer. He is a good bloke, hard working and honest. No place in the Commons for him then!

Danny565

I see Sinn Fein are currently topping the polls in Ireland.

Despite the mindless Audreyanne-esque "elections are won in the centre ground" mantra, is there actually ANY country in Europe other than Germany where centrist politics is doing well? Centrism essentially just means supporting the status quo, and virtually everyone everywhere agrees the status quo is awful and that something has to change (even though people have very different ideas about what they should change to).

nigel4england

audreyanne said:

Good.

I know this is a shock to pb people but most people couldn't care a less about politics. And of those that do, only a small fraction know much about it.

By the way, I also don't know anyone who gives a flying fig about the EU. Some care about immigration (and loads don't), but I haven't heard anyone outside pb.com talking about the EU for over a year. Cue you-kippers talking about 'my circles,' but have you actually thought that it might be the ones you-kip-keep?

You need to get out more.

manofkent2014

audreyanne said:

Good.

I know this is a shock to pb people but most people couldn't care a less about politics. And of those that do, only a small fraction know much about it.

By the way, I also don't know anyone who gives a flying fig about the EU. Some care about immigration (and loads don't), but I haven't heard anyone outside pb.com talking about the EU for over a year. Cue you-kippers talking about 'my circles,' but have you actually thought that it might be the ones you-kip-keep?

Well do you not listen to the news or read the (Tory and Labour) newspapers then because they were full of Dave and George going on about Brussels last week and Miliband is speaking about the EU tomorrow which begs the question why on earth you are dragging UKIP into it (bar your obsessive unhealthy hatred of them that is)?

Its not UKIP that have been banging on about the EU (UKIP's position is settled) its the Tories primarily who can't get it right and now it would seem increasingly the Labour Party who will no doubt start an 'I Love Brussels' campaign on Twitter to accompany what will no doubt be a 'ground breaking' speech for Mr. Ed.

I have a wider question for punters on here. Can a political party be stalked? If so I suggest UKIP have more than one stalker on here!

PS And the last thing I want to contemplate is Audreyanne's 'circles' (reaches for the mind bleach)

kle4

audreyanne said:

Good.

I know this is a shock to pb people but most people couldn't care a less about politics. And of those that do, only a small fraction know much about it.

By the way, I also don't know anyone who gives a flying fig about the EU. Some care about immigration (and loads don't), but I haven't heard anyone outside pb.com talking about the EU for over a year. Cue you-kippers talking about 'my circles,' but have you actually thought that it might be the ones you-kip-keep?

I've never voted UKIP, but people talk about the EU fairly frequently as a passing topic when general discussion of the news of the day pops up. It's one of those topics people do not spontaneously bring up all the time, but which if it is raised they will have an opinion. I don't doubt many go years without discussing it, but others do whatever their politics.

Perhaps you could dial down the condescension a tad? It is taken as a given the people who regularly discuss politics, particularly to the extent they comment about it on an internet forum, are wonks to some degree, it isn't necessary to remind people or attempt to imply which groups are more so than others - which seems to have been your intent with the You-kippers remark - as it underlies everything anyone says anyway.

Scrapheap_as_was

Well, colour me amazed.

Spurs were utter shite and lost. Who'd have predicted that????????


James Scowcroft

BBC Radio London summariser at White Hart Lane

'Like watching a relegation-threatened side'

Tottenham 1-2 Stoke

"If I was a Spurs fan I would be exceptionally worried. They were second best all over the park today, that's no exaggeration. There were no leaders at all for Tottenham and the only time Stoke keeper Asmir Begovic was tested all game was from set plays, from open play there was no invention.

"Watching that was almost like watching a relegation-threatened side. If Chelsea were to come here on that performance, you'd expect them to score five or six."

Scrapheap_as_was

Please can Daniel Levy sack someone yet again.

ME!

I need to be put out of 40 years of suffering and am due bail to support another team, any team. MK Dons perhaps... that should keep Spurs away from me at least... oh hang on.

FalseFlag

Speedy said:

It's no surprise to me, 1/6th of the public has been proved to have the IQ of G.W.Bush in the past as well, there were 2 polls in both America and Britain that showed the same number supporting nuclear war.

Bush scored in the 95th percentile, higher than Kerry.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/24/politics/campaign/24points.html

Garethofthevale

As a market researcher I'm not surprised by this. A few reasons:

1) clicking the wrong button. This does happen and we get verbatim comments saying sorry I made a mistake at the last question. Most surveys don't offer a back button as we don't want respondents to go back and change their answers when they see later questions.
2) inattentiveness. We would like to think respondents are giving us their full undivided attention when doing a survey but this isn't always the case. People may be watching tv or minding the kids. Another factor in a long survey is boredom as respondents may get fed up and hurry to the end. Bear in mind consumer incentives tend to be low e.g. 50p.

I would also suggest Farmer could easily be misread as Farage.

manofkent2014

Garethofthevale said:

As a market researcher I'm not surprised by this. A few reasons:

1) clicking the wrong button. This does happen and we get verbatim comments saying sorry I made a mistake at the last question. Most surveys don't offer a back button as we don't want respondents to go back and change their answers when they see later questions.
2) inattentiveness. We would like to think respondents are giving us their full undivided attention when doing a survey but this isn't always the case. People may be watching tv or minding the kids. Another factor in a long survey is boredom as respondents may get fed up and hurry to the end. Bear in mind consumer incentives tend to be low e.g. 50p.

I would also suggest Farmer could easily be misread as Farage.

It might also be mistaken identity. There happen to be 24 MP's who are either Andy or Andrew which seems disproportionately high but that's a separate matter.

AlastairMeeks

manofkent2014 said:

Garethofthevale said:

As a market researcher I'm not surprised by this. A few reasons:

1) clicking the wrong button. This does happen and we get verbatim comments saying sorry I made a mistake at the last question. Most surveys don't offer a back button as we don't want respondents to go back and change their answers when they see later questions.
2) inattentiveness. We would like to think respondents are giving us their full undivided attention when doing a survey but this isn't always the case. People may be watching tv or minding the kids. Another factor in a long survey is boredom as respondents may get fed up and hurry to the end. Bear in mind consumer incentives tend to be low e.g. 50p.

I would also suggest Farmer could easily be misread as Farage.

It might also be mistaken identity. There happen to be 24 MP's who are either Andy or Andrew which seems disproportionately high but that's a separate matter.

A few years ago one of the legal trade rags noted that there were more partners in large City law firms called Martin than female partners. I doubt this has changed all that much.

I expect we'll have to wait quite some time for an MP called Kylie.

HYUFD

Honourable mention for PB's own David Herdson in today's Adam Boulton Sunday Times column (behind paywall)
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/comment/columns/adamboulton/article1481000.ece

dr_spyn

Ed Balls tweets on Remembrance Service, but nothing on Ed M. Got his priorities right.

isam

felix said:

Poll finding of the week: 15% tell YouGov they’d heard of a politician who doesn’t exist.

Not far short of the current UKIP averages:)

I know you meant it in jest.. but have you seen the tables?

The kippers didn't fall for it

Andy_Cooke

Next week's headlines: "Has the EU rebate story buried news of a plot to oust Ed Miliband in favour of Andrew Farmer?"

manofkent2014

antifrank said:

manofkent2014 said:

Garethofthevale said:

As a market researcher I'm not surprised by this. A few reasons:

1) clicking the wrong button. This does happen and we get verbatim comments saying sorry I made a mistake at the last question. Most surveys don't offer a back button as we don't want respondents to go back and change their answers when they see later questions.
2) inattentiveness. We would like to think respondents are giving us their full undivided attention when doing a survey but this isn't always the case. People may be watching tv or minding the kids. Another factor in a long survey is boredom as respondents may get fed up and hurry to the end. Bear in mind consumer incentives tend to be low e.g. 50p.

I would also suggest Farmer could easily be misread as Farage.

It might also be mistaken identity. There happen to be 24 MP's who are either Andy or Andrew which seems disproportionately high but that's a separate matter.

A few years ago one of the legal trade rags noted that there were more partners in large City law firms called Martin than female partners. I doubt this has changed all that much.

I expect we'll have to wait quite some time for an MP called Kylie.

Indeed there seems to be a preponderance of David's and John's as well but not any Shane's or Darren's

OblitusSumMe

isam said:

felix said:

Poll finding of the week: 15% tell YouGov they’d heard of a politician who doesn’t exist.

Not far short of the current UKIP averages:)

I know you meant it in jest.. but have you seen the tables?

The kippers didn't fall for it

Why do you think that is?

I was wondering whether UKIP supporters were more likely to expect that there would be politicians that they hadn't heard of, since they don't give a toss about normal politicians anyway.

MikeK

isam said:

felix said:

Poll finding of the week: 15% tell YouGov they’d heard of a politician who doesn’t exist.

Not far short of the current UKIP averages:)

I know you meant it in jest.. but have you seen the tables?

The kippers didn't fall for it

Unlike Labour and L/Dem supporters who are soft in the head. They get their brains back by joining or supporting UKIP.

manofkent2014

MikeK said:

isam said:

felix said:

Poll finding of the week: 15% tell YouGov they’d heard of a politician who doesn’t exist.

Not far short of the current UKIP averages:)

I know you meant it in jest.. but have you seen the tables?

The kippers didn't fall for it

Unlike Labour and L/Dem supporters who are soft in the head. They get their brains back by joining or supporting UKIP.

Indeed the rehabilitation work that UKIP do and get go no thanks for is something that deserves recognition!

Their work with 'Stockholm syndromed' Tories is something to behold apparently

;-)

MikeK

I hope this ia new poll:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 5m5 minutes ago
National Opinion Poll (Opinium):
LAB - 32% (-1)
CON - 29% (-4)
UKIP - 19% (+1)
LDEM - 9% (+3)
GRN - 4% (-)

L/dems Jump up, Cons jump down

ydoethur

'15% said they'd heard of politician who doesn't exit.'

So he's not a UKIPper or a Nat?

The plot thickens...

(Sorry, couldn't resist!)

fitalass

"(bar your obsessive unhealthy hatred of them that is)?"

Can we finally knock this childish claim on the head as its become an every more regular and boring cry from some Ukippers on PB if there is any criticism of UKIP!! It was just as childish when some of the Nats on here used to claim the same with regard the SNP!

manofkent2014 said:

audreyanne said:

Good.

I know this is a shock to pb people but most people couldn't care a less about politics. And of those that do, only a small fraction know much about it.

By the way, I also don't know anyone who gives a flying fig about the EU. Some care about immigration (and loads don't), but I haven't heard anyone outside pb.com talking about the EU for over a year. Cue you-kippers talking about 'my circles,' but have you actually thought that it might be the ones you-kip-keep?

Well do you not listen to the news or read the (Tory and Labour) newspapers then because they were full of Dave and George going on about Brussels last week and Miliband is speaking about the EU tomorrow which begs the question why on earth you are dragging UKIP into it (bar your obsessive unhealthy hatred of them that is)?

Its not UKIP that have been banging on about the EU (UKIP's position is settled) its the Tories primarily who can't get it right and now it would seem increasingly the Labour Party who will no doubt start an 'I Love Brussels' campaign on Twitter to accompany what will no doubt be a 'ground breaking' speech for Mr. Ed.

I have a wider question for punters on here. Can a political party be stalked? If so I suggest UKIP have more than one stalker on here!

PS And the last thing I want to contemplate is Audreyanne's 'circles' (reaches for the mind bleach)

manofkent2014

MikeK said:

I hope this ia new poll:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 5m5 minutes ago
National Opinion Poll (Opinium):
LAB - 32% (-1)
CON - 29% (-4)
UKIP - 19% (+1)
LDEM - 9% (+3)
GRN - 4% (-)

L/dems Jump up, Cons jump down

Last nights.Observer poll

manofkent2014

fitalass said:

"(bar your obsessive unhealthy hatred of them that is)?"

Can we finally knock this childish claim on the head as its become an every more regular and boring cry from some Ukippers on PB if there is any criticism of UKIP!! It was just as childish when some of the Nats on here used to claim the same with regard the SNP!

manofkent2014 said:

audreyanne said:

Good.

I know this is a shock to pb people but most people couldn't care a less about politics. And of those that do, only a small fraction know much about it.

By the way, I also don't know anyone who gives a flying fig about the EU. Some care about immigration (and loads don't), but I haven't heard anyone outside pb.com talking about the EU for over a year. Cue you-kippers talking about 'my circles,' but have you actually thought that it might be the ones you-kip-keep?

Well do you not listen to the news or read the (Tory and Labour) newspapers then because they were full of Dave and George going on about Brussels last week and Miliband is speaking about the EU tomorrow which begs the question why on earth you are dragging UKIP into it (bar your obsessive unhealthy hatred of them that is)?

Its not UKIP that have been banging on about the EU (UKIP's position is settled) its the Tories primarily who can't get it right and now it would seem increasingly the Labour Party who will no doubt start an 'I Love Brussels' campaign on Twitter to accompany what will no doubt be a 'ground breaking' speech for Mr. Ed.

I have a wider question for punters on here. Can a political party be stalked? If so I suggest UKIP have more than one stalker on here!

PS And the last thing I want to contemplate is Audreyanne's 'circles' (reaches for the mind bleach)

And out pops the Tories very own 'Hanoi Hannah' to prove my point!

AndyJS

"Kinnock: Ed Miliband is not in danger as Labour leader":

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29978194

MikeK

manofkent2014 said:

MikeK said:

I hope this ia new poll:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 5m5 minutes ago
National Opinion Poll (Opinium):
LAB - 32% (-1)
CON - 29% (-4)
UKIP - 19% (+1)
LDEM - 9% (+3)
GRN - 4% (-)

L/dems Jump up, Cons jump down

Last nights.Observer poll

Ta. Hangs head in shame.

megalomaniacs4u

AndyJS said:

"Kinnock: Ed Miliband is not in danger as Labour leader":

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29978194

game over.

Ishmael_X

audreyanne said:

Good.

I know this is a shock to pb people but most people couldn't care a less about politics. And of those that do, only a small fraction know much about it.

By the way, I also don't know anyone who gives a flying fig about the EU. Some care about immigration (and loads don't), but I haven't heard anyone outside pb.com talking about the EU for over a year. Cue you-kippers talking about 'my circles,' but have you actually thought that it might be the ones you-kip-keep?

Here's a deal: you stop telling people they know nothing about politics, haven't studied politics, and so on, and I'll stop telling you that you thought the Strood open primary was the first held in the UK.

manofkent2014

megalomaniacs4u said:

AndyJS said:

"Kinnock: Ed Miliband is not in danger as Labour leader":

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29978194

game over.

I'm sure Ed will appreciate the good climate change practice in this......

http://www.bl.uk/learning/images/front page/If Kinnick Wins-st.jpg

"If Ed Miliband wins......."

MarkHopkins

AndyJS said:

"Kinnock: Ed Miliband is not in danger as Labour leader":

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29978194

Kinnock thinks Miliband is Allllrighhht.

ThomasNashe

antifrank said:

manofkent2014 said:

Garethofthevale said:

As a market researcher I'm not surprised by this. A few reasons:

1) clicking the wrong button. This does happen and we get verbatim comments saying sorry I made a mistake at the last question. Most surveys don't offer a back button as we don't want respondents to go back and change their answers when they see later questions.
2) inattentiveness. We would like to think respondents are giving us their full undivided attention when doing a survey but this isn't always the case. People may be watching tv or minding the kids. Another factor in a long survey is boredom as respondents may get fed up and hurry to the end. Bear in mind consumer incentives tend to be low e.g. 50p.

I would also suggest Farmer could easily be misread as Farage.

It might also be mistaken identity. There happen to be 24 MP's who are either Andy or Andrew which seems disproportionately high but that's a separate matter.

A few years ago one of the legal trade rags noted that there were more partners in large City law firms called Martin than female partners. I doubt this has changed all that much.

I expect we'll have to wait quite some time for an MP called Kylie.

We do, however, have Kylie Morris, the news correspondent who is a regular on Ch.4 News.

manofkent2014

Ho Ho Ho

Swansea 2 Arsenal 1

Swansea two goals in just a few minutes

ThomasNashe

Arsenal doing their best to cheer up Scrapheap!

Ishmael_X

Speedy said:

It's no surprise to me, 1/6th of the public has been proved to have the IQ of G.W.Bush in the past as well, there were 2 polls in both America and Britain that showed the same number supporting nuclear war.

Is that in any way true? Is Bush's IQ known? And as he has a BA from Yale, an MBA and is capable of flying a fighter jet I would have thought he was easily in the top one sixth of IQs. Or was that what you meant?

surbiton

What does it say about the remaining Lib Dems. 6% recognise the dummy politician but only 2% of the 2010 LD's do so.

Does it mean the really stupid are still Lib Dems ?

Scrapheap_as_was

We of course sold Gylfi.... and kept, well....

ThomasNashe said:

Arsenal doing their best to cheer up Scrapheap!

surbiton

The PB Tories are wetting themselves at the prospect of Miliband leaving. Yet, on the polls published, with dire Labour numbers, Ed is Crap is Prime Minister.

felix

isam said:

felix said:

Poll finding of the week: 15% tell YouGov they’d heard of a politician who doesn’t exist.

Not far short of the current UKIP averages:)

I know you meant it in jest.. but have you seen the tables?

The kippers didn't fall for it

Didn't bother to look at them - I'm still very upset that Cameron and Osborne have been forced out after the public outcry this w/e over the EU rebate - it's affected my judgement.

SandyRentool

News of a possible defection:

If Ed is pushed aside for an Alan Johnson 'coronation' I shall be quitting the party and joining the Greens.

surbiton

MikeK said:

I hope this ia new poll:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 5m5 minutes ago
National Opinion Poll (Opinium):
LAB - 32% (-1)
CON - 29% (-4)
UKIP - 19% (+1)
LDEM - 9% (+3)
GRN - 4% (-)

L/dems Jump up, Cons jump down

Ed is Crap is Prime Minister, still.

Scrapheap_as_was

Blimey Leon Brittan is coming on to the pitch.

Does that mean all listeners and people in the crowd are now banned from heading up the troublesome Child abuse inquiry?

AlastairMeeks

SandyRentool said:

News of a possible defection:

If Ed is pushed aside for an Alan Johnson 'coronation' I shall be quitting the party and joining the Greens.

That is a danger for Labour: Ed Miliband is more likely than any other candidate for his job to protect the left flank.

felix

surbiton said:

The PB Tories are wetting themselves at the prospect of Miliband leaving. Yet, on the polls published, with dire Labour numbers, Ed is Crap is Prime Minister.

Dummy post of the year?

JonnyJimmy

surbiton said:

The PB Tories are wetting themselves at the prospect of Miliband leaving. Yet, on the polls published, with dire Labour numbers, Ed is Crap is Prime Minister.

Wetting ourselves with fear at the prospect of Milicraperoo leaving, indeed.

What percentage of voters do you think will enthusiastically vote for this tsunami of craperoo to be PM?

AndyJS

Green membership on the rise, including a doubling of Young Greens since March:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29505094
http://younggreens.org.uk/news/2014/10/03/membership-of-the-young-greens-doubles/

surbiton

felix said:

surbiton said:

The PB Tories are wetting themselves at the prospect of Miliband leaving. Yet, on the polls published, with dire Labour numbers, Ed is Crap is Prime Minister.

Dummy post of the year?

It only proves that the Tory numbers are even worse.

Will there be 46 signatures handed over to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee on 21 November ?

AndyJS

SandyRentool said:

News of a possible defection:

If Ed is pushed aside for an Alan Johnson 'coronation' I shall be quitting the party and joining the Greens.

Who is this?

manofkent2014

AndyJS said:

Green membership on the rise, including a doubling of Young Greens since March:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29505094
http://younggreens.org.uk/news/2014/10/03/membership-of-the-young-greens-doubles/

Is this the political version of the 'Day Of The Triffids'?

;-)

Danny565

antifrank said:

SandyRentool said:

News of a possible defection:

If Ed is pushed aside for an Alan Johnson 'coronation' I shall be quitting the party and joining the Greens.

That is a danger for Labour: Ed Miliband is more likely than any other candidate for his job to protect the left flank.

He's not protecting his left flank. The voters defecting are lefties/"traditional Labour voters".

surbiton

This morning I wrote that there is no MP calling for Ed to go. Some thicko here wrote that an MP was coming up on Sunday Politics.

Who is this MP ?

kle4

JonnyJimmy said:

surbiton said:

The PB Tories are wetting themselves at the prospect of Miliband leaving. Yet, on the polls published, with dire Labour numbers, Ed is Crap is Prime Minister.

Wetting ourselves with fear at the prospect of Milicraperoo leaving, indeed.

What percentage of voters do you think will enthusiastically vote for this tsunami of craperoo to be PM?

They don't have to vote for the party he leads enthusiastically, they just need to do it. The question is if his poor ratings will be enough to drag down the Labour vote in enough contests around the country. At present, the answer appears to be no, unless Scotland is as much a bloodbath as recent polls have suggested is possible.

Tories must be pulling their hair out at what needs to happen before the Labour brand takes a long term hit again.

Morris_Dancer

Good evening, everyone.

Won't spoil the race for those waiting for the highlights, but I will recommend watching it. Cracking race. Huzzah for Interlagos!

FPT: Mr. H, are you referring to my own works? If so, thank you for the kind words. However, I must correct you slightly. I am taxed. On each sale (ebooks) VAT is paid. And income is also taxed.

Bit of a waiting time now. A fortnight to Abu Dhabi. And the by-election. And Dragon Age: Inquisition. And on the Sunday, just before the race, I'm doing an hour long Twitter thingummyjig about humour in genre fiction [or 'taking the piss out of elves'].

surbiton

JonnyJimmy said:

surbiton said:

The PB Tories are wetting themselves at the prospect of Miliband leaving. Yet, on the polls published, with dire Labour numbers, Ed is Crap is Prime Minister.

Wetting ourselves with fear at the prospect of Milicraperoo leaving, indeed.

What percentage of voters do you think will enthusiastically vote for this tsunami of craperoo to be PM?

30% will be enough to win. Thanks to your superb financial backing for FPTP - the greatest electoral system in the world [ even though I think it is crap ! ]

JonnyJimmy

kle4 said:

JonnyJimmy said:

surbiton said:

The PB Tories are wetting themselves at the prospect of Miliband leaving. Yet, on the polls published, with dire Labour numbers, Ed is Crap is Prime Minister.

Wetting ourselves with fear at the prospect of Milicraperoo leaving, indeed.

What percentage of voters do you think will enthusiastically vote for this tsunami of craperoo to be PM?

They don't have to vote for the party he leads enthusiastically, they just need to do it. The question is if his poor ratings will be enough to drag down the Labour vote in enough contests around the country. At present, the answer appears to be no, unless Scotland is as much a bloodbath as recent polls have suggested is possible.

Tories must be pulling their hair out at what needs to happen before the Labour brand takes a long term hit again.

Of course they don't need to vote enthusiastically, but they need to vote. If they're not enthusiastic they're far more likely not to bother. I reckon Lab could lose up to about 20% of their current polling on this basis.

surbiton

Swansey beats Arsenal. Ho ho ho !!!

AlastairMeeks

Danny565 said:

antifrank said:

SandyRentool said:

News of a possible defection:

If Ed is pushed aside for an Alan Johnson 'coronation' I shall be quitting the party and joining the Greens.

That is a danger for Labour: Ed Miliband is more likely than any other candidate for his job to protect the left flank.

He's not protecting his left flank. The voters defecting are lefties/"traditional Labour voters".

More likely. Unless Labour goes full on for anti-austerity, there is bound to be some leakage.

MarqueeMark

kle4 said:

JonnyJimmy said:

surbiton said:

The PB Tories are wetting themselves at the prospect of Miliband leaving. Yet, on the polls published, with dire Labour numbers, Ed is Crap is Prime Minister.

Wetting ourselves with fear at the prospect of Milicraperoo leaving, indeed.

What percentage of voters do you think will enthusiastically vote for this tsunami of craperoo to be PM?

They don't have to vote for the party he leads enthusiastically, they just need to do it. The question is if his poor ratings will be enough to drag down the Labour vote in enough contests around the country. At present, the answer appears to be no, unless Scotland is as much a bloodbath as recent polls have suggested is possible.

Tories must be pulling their hair out at what needs to happen before the Labour brand takes a long term hit again.

Divided parties lose elections. So rally round Ed is Crap, rally round... But you're fooling no-one, the lack of enthusiasm is there for the voters to see....

AlastairMeeks

Bit of a contrast between Polly Toynbee's first and last sentences in this piece:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/nov/09/panic-labour-leadership-ed-miliband

Could she have been any more half-hearted in her final sentence?

manofkent2014

surbiton said:

JonnyJimmy said:

surbiton said:

The PB Tories are wetting themselves at the prospect of Miliband leaving. Yet, on the polls published, with dire Labour numbers, Ed is Crap is Prime Minister.

Wetting ourselves with fear at the prospect of Milicraperoo leaving, indeed.

What percentage of voters do you think will enthusiastically vote for this tsunami of craperoo to be PM?

30% will be enough to win. Thanks to your superb financial backing for FPTP - the greatest electoral system in the world [ even though I think it is crap ! ]

Not if the Tories poll 35% it won't

kle4

JonnyJimmy said:

kle4 said:

JonnyJimmy said:

surbiton said:

The PB Tories are wetting themselves at the prospect of Miliband leaving. Yet, on the polls published, with dire Labour numbers, Ed is Crap is Prime Minister.

Wetting ourselves with fear at the prospect of Milicraperoo leaving, indeed.

What percentage of voters do you think will enthusiastically vote for this tsunami of craperoo to be PM?

They don't have to vote for the party he leads enthusiastically, they just need to do it. The question is if his poor ratings will be enough to drag down the Labour vote in enough contests around the country. At present, the answer appears to be no, unless Scotland is as much a bloodbath as recent polls have suggested is possible.

Tories must be pulling their hair out at what needs to happen before the Labour brand takes a long term hit again.

Of course they don't need to vote enthusiastically, but they need to vote. If they're not enthusiastic they're far more likely not to bother. .

That's why I put the important question is how much Ed M drags the vote down in individual contests by causing that stay at home effect. You estimate it could be as much as 20% of their current polling that is undercut by that effect, my gut says no more than say 5%.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Mark, well quite.

If Miliband can't persuade Labour he's a good leader, how can he persuade the country?

Roger

These 'lie' factor questions are interesting. A friend of mine was doing some market research for Elida Gibbs where to test the veracity of the respondents answers they asked how many times a day people showered and how often they brushed their teeth. The most popular answer to the shower question is two and to the tooth brushing question is three.

JonnyJimmy

surbiton said:

JonnyJimmy said:

surbiton said:

The PB Tories are wetting themselves at the prospect of Miliband leaving. Yet, on the polls published, with dire Labour numbers, Ed is Crap is Prime Minister.

Wetting ourselves with fear at the prospect of Milicraperoo leaving, indeed.

What percentage of voters do you think will enthusiastically vote for this tsunami of craperoo to be PM?

30% will be enough to win. Thanks to your superb financial backing for FPTP - the greatest electoral system in the world [ even though I think it is crap ! ]

I have never financially contributed to FPTP.

Once Ed is Craperoo (yay! My iPhone just predicted Craperoo) is in the public eye every day during a GE campaign I expect the enthusiasm to plumb new depths. He'll do well to get 25%

surbiton

What happened to "Pardew must go" ?

kle4

MarqueeMark said:

kle4 said:

JonnyJimmy said:

surbiton said:

The PB Tories are wetting themselves at the prospect of Miliband leaving. Yet, on the polls published, with dire Labour numbers, Ed is Crap is Prime Minister.

Wetting ourselves with fear at the prospect of Milicraperoo leaving, indeed.

What percentage of voters do you think will enthusiastically vote for this tsunami of craperoo to be PM?

They don't have to vote for the party he leads enthusiastically, they just need to do it. The question is if his poor ratings will be enough to drag down the Labour vote in enough contests around the country. At present, the answer appears to be no, unless Scotland is as much a bloodbath as recent polls have suggested is possible.

Tories must be pulling their hair out at what needs to happen before the Labour brand takes a long term hit again.

Divided parties lose elections.

But both major parties are divided. The LDs and UKIP aren't, because they have been reduced to a unified rump or are laser focused on giving the elites a kicking respectively. But Labour becoming more openly divided merely puts them on parity with the Tories, and they have other advantages. So if being divided is going to be a clincher, they need to be in open war, or have another negative factor, eg the Ed effect, become even more prominent.

surbiton

JonnyJimmy said:

surbiton said:

JonnyJimmy said:

surbiton said:

The PB Tories are wetting themselves at the prospect of Miliband leaving. Yet, on the polls published, with dire Labour numbers, Ed is Crap is Prime Minister.

Wetting ourselves with fear at the prospect of Milicraperoo leaving, indeed.

What percentage of voters do you think will enthusiastically vote for this tsunami of craperoo to be PM?

30% will be enough to win. Thanks to your superb financial backing for FPTP - the greatest electoral system in the world [ even though I think it is crap ! ]

I have never financially contributed to FPTP.

Once Ed is Craperoo (yay! My iPhone just predicted Craperoo) is in the public eye every day during a GE campaign I expect the enthusiasm to plumb new depths. He'll do well to get 25%

Dummy: "Your" means the Tory Party. Don't think you are that important to be mentioned in despatches.

surbiton

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Mark, well quite.

If Miliband can't persuade Labour he's a good leader, how can he persuade the country?

He doesn't need to.

AndyJS

The fact that both main parties are not in open revolt because they think the other one is doing even worse paradoxically makes both of them look like part of the same establishment clique and assists other parties such as UKIP and the Greens IMO.

philiph

Morris_Dancer said:

Good evening, everyone.

Won't spoil the race for those waiting for the highlights, but I will recommend watching it. Cracking race. Huzzah for Interlagos!

FPT: Mr. H, are you referring to my own works? If so, thank you for the kind words. However, I must correct you slightly. I am taxed. On each sale (ebooks) VAT is paid. And income is also taxed.

Bit of a waiting time now. A fortnight to Abu Dhabi. And the by-election. And Dragon Age: Inquisition. And on the Sunday, just before the race, I'm doing an hour long Twitter thingummyjig about humour in genre fiction [or 'taking the piss out of elves'].

Indeed I was referencing the creative output of your good self.

The theoretical point I failed to make clearly in reference to an asset tax is that in theory as your books sell more the Intellectual Property (or copyright) becomes an asset. Income for 30 or 50 years at x £ pa would give a value of y. You could be taxed on the value of the IP/copyright as well as Income and vat.

surbiton

manofkent2014 said:

surbiton said:

JonnyJimmy said:

surbiton said:

The PB Tories are wetting themselves at the prospect of Miliband leaving. Yet, on the polls published, with dire Labour numbers, Ed is Crap is Prime Minister.

Wetting ourselves with fear at the prospect of Milicraperoo leaving, indeed.

What percentage of voters do you think will enthusiastically vote for this tsunami of craperoo to be PM?

30% will be enough to win. Thanks to your superb financial backing for FPTP - the greatest electoral system in the world [ even though I think it is crap ! ]

Not if the Tories poll 35% it won't

Which poll gave the Tories 35% ? I can see 29%