"A FORMER SNP defence spokesman is to stand for the Liberal Democrats in a key city seat at next year’s Westminster elections.
Stuart Crawford, who spent nearly 20 years in the army, has been chosen as the candidate for Edinburgh South, one of the Lib Dems’ top target seats in the UK.
The 59-year-old former lieutenant colonel said he had quit the SNP after becoming less convinced of the case for independence."
Spain's Finance Minister is number 4 against the Osborne position:
Spain's Luis de Guindos argued, “No-one has put into question the [European] Commission’s figures…as perfectly valid. Basically, what we agreed on is the possibility of a delay in payments.”
You can see who the most tribal of Tories are today, that's for sure.
Indeed.
The most tribal on here are the Kippers who refuse, absolutely refuse under any circumstances, to accept that Cameron and Osborne might have achieved something.
It looks as though it's quite simple: the EU and the other governments had forgotten about the rebate, until Osborne pointed it out.
From what I have been able to tell, the rebate is applied to the net contribution of the UK, so is normally worked out in arrears - from what I have read normally on a rolling four-year basis (I am learning that EU budget rules are very complicated, not that I am surprised).
So, given that this extra payment by the UK - on account of our GNI being higher when we include an estimate for the illegal drugs market, etc - would not lead to any extra spending by the EU in the UK, it is completely correct to say that we would have received a £850m rebate as a result. It's just that the standard operating procedures would have separated the rebate from the contribution.
So it's completely false to say that the rebate was "forgotten", it's just that the procedures do not explicitly link the rebate to individual payments made by the UK.
What Osborne has done is to delay the payment of the bill and bring forward the payment of the implied rebate, so that next year the payment will be of the net amount - that is the net amount as per the standard rules of the EU.
This is exactly the sort of thing Tesco was doing - playing jiggery pokery with payment dates to make the net position look rosier in the current year. In the final analysis the only thing that is different is that the UK has a "time to pay" agreement for less than a year.
It is completely false to say that the bill has been halved, or that the rebate had been "forgotten". That's just presentational bollocks.
You can see who the most tribal of Tories are today, that's for sure.
Indeed.
The most tribal on here are the Kippers who refuse, absolutely refuse under any circumstances, to accept that Cameron and Osborne might have achieved something.
This is the first time tonight that you have accepted that Cameron will pay the full amount and he's trying to mask it behind the rebate, which was Thatcher's victory not Osborne's.
He will pay the full amount, £850m. Not the £1.7bn which UKIP, Labour, the EU, and the media said was the full amount, until today.
Stop digging its embarassing.
Now confirmed we pay the full £1.7BN first then get our rebate
So in short, not a great victory for George after all.
Dunno about a 'great victory', but a distinct improvement on the £1.7bn previously said to be due in three weeks time, with punitive interest penalties if we didn't cough up.
There is a something depressingly cynical about all this.
Luckyguy1983/bigjohnowls Cameron and Osborne did the best they could, if some in the EU want to continue to put British voters' backs up that is their affair, the fastest growing nations in the EU are the UK and Sweden, both outside the euro, the EU needs the UK
I dont disagree that Cameron and Osborne did the best they could with deferring payment but the lie about halving the bill has unravelled, completely.
The electorate will not be fooled IMO
To be fair to Cameron and Osborne I think they were in a pretty impossible position.
But a defeat is still a defeat not a victory.
Sometimes its better to admit the impossibility of your position rather than lying about it and consequently casting doubt on everything you've said on other occasions and on other issues.
This is exactly the sort of thing Tesco was doing - playing jiggery pokery with payment dates to make the net position look rosier in the current year. In the final analysis the only thing that is different is that the UK has a "time to pay" agreement for less than a year.
It is completely false to say that the bill has been halved, or that the rebate had been "forgotten". That's just presentational bollocks.
That argument would make some sense if anyone, anyone at all, had said "The UK is over-reacting, it's not a demand for £1.7bn, because they'll get half of it back the following year". They didn't.
So, either the rebate was not automatic, or it was automatic and they'd forgotten about it until Osborne reminded them.
You can see who the most tribal of Tories are today, that's for sure.
Indeed.
The most tribal on here are the Kippers who refuse, absolutely refuse under any circumstances, to accept that Cameron and Osborne might have achieved something.
Are 4 EU finance ministers also kippers?
Someone: "I disagree with Cameron" Nabavi: " You are a kipper"
At least you agree that you are a Tory diehard, so your opinion on this is not exactly neutral (classic understatement).
The rebate being deducted off isn't the rebate off just this payment: it's obviously too high for that because the rebate is a lot less than half of our gross contribution. The rebate is €4 billion off a gross contribution of €17 billion. The rebate payment being deducted off it is part of the UK's general rebate payment off our overall contribution.
The rebate is [roughly*] half of our net contribution.
Since this extra payment by Britain does not increase the EU budget (all the money we, the Netherlands, Greece, etc pay in as part of this adjustment is paid out to other EU states) then it is reasonable to assume that we won't receive any extra EU funding, and so the net position of our contribution to the EU will change by the gross amount of the payment - and so you can reasonably apply the rebate to the gross amount of this payment.
* The rebate was two-thirds, but was then reduced by 20%, so is now 53.3%, I think.
This is exactly the sort of thing Tesco was doing - playing jiggery pokery with payment dates to make the net position look rosier in the current year. In the final analysis the only thing that is different is that the UK has a "time to pay" agreement for less than a year.
It is completely false to say that the bill has been halved, or that the rebate had been "forgotten". That's just presentational bollocks.
That argument would make some sense if anyone, anyone at all, had said "The UK is over-reacting, it's not a demand for £1.7bn, because they'll get half of it back the following year". They didn't.
So, either the rebate was not automatic, or it was automatic and they'd forgotten about it until Osborne reminded them.
And are the Treasury that bloody useless they don't know how an annual process works? Or did they know and purposefully kept quiet so that Cameron and Osborne could fabricate this faux 'victory'
Whichever way you try to spin this the government has questions to answer......
You can see who the most tribal of Tories are today, that's for sure.
Indeed.
The most tribal on here are the Kippers who refuse, absolutely refuse under any circumstances, to accept that Cameron and Osborne might have achieved something.
Well I'm sure the UKIP supporters can speak for themselves.
But I would say that supporters of minor and/or new parties are almost by definition less tribal as they have made a conscious decision to reject the main establishment parties.
Whereas many supporters of the main parties are supporters out of decades of habit ago and/or because of their upbringing.
Seems like a classic case of 'Anchoring' -showing people the worst option (eg the most expensive item on a menu) first, so the next one down seems more reasonable. It was predicted here that other calculations would be applied to the sum that would reduce it, and that Cameron's jolly cross (but very carefully worded) statements were a bit of theatre. I don't blame them for trying, but it remains to be seen whether the British public in these straightened times will be grateful merely to be punched in the face by Brussels as opposed to punched in the face and kicked in the balls. UKIP are a lot more prominent than ever before, and if they can find a soundbite/form of words that pithily sums up the situation, the ruse may backfire.
The rebate being deducted off isn't the rebate off this payment: it's obviously too high for that because the rebate is a lot less than half of our gross contribution. The rebate is €4 billion off a gross contribution of €17 billion. The rebate payment being deducted off it is part of the UK's general rebate payment off our overall contribution.
I can quote @ToryTreasury again if you want. Are you saying that they are bare faced liars?
@ToryTreasury: The rebate we have secured on the £1.7bn, reducing it to £850m, is totally separate from the normal rebate and will not reduce it in future
Yes, but the £1.7bn is itself separate from normal payments, thus to pretend this is a 'victory' of any kind is risible.
I've got to admit that the PB Tories have done themselves no favours tonight.
As soon as people heard the 'reduction' spin they asked themselves 'Why is stony broke Euroland being so generous?'. The answer is they're not.
Not too difficult to figure out, except for PB Tories.
No other Country is being asked for more, which would of course be the case if there was a genuine reduction in the UK bill.
That's the crucial point.
The result of Thatcher winning the rebate in the 80s was that France in particular had to pay more to make up the difference. Indeed, if you look at the EU budget documents you see that some countries - like Germany and Finland - only pay 1/4 of what they would otherwise need to pay to fund the British rebate, to ensure that it is France that mostly does so instead.
If there was a genuine reduction in Britain's bill then some other country would be having to pay more to make up for it. That hasn't happened - thus the conclusion is that the claim of "halving the bill" is simply a deception on a par with Tony "45 minutes" Blair.
It looks as though it's quite simple: the EU and the other governments had forgotten about the rebate, until Osborne pointed it out.
From what I have been able to tell, the rebate is applied to the net contribution of the UK, so is normally worked out in arrears - from what I have read normally on a rolling four-year basis (I am learning that EU budget rules are very complicated, not that I am surprised).
So, given that this extra payment by the UK - on account of our GNI being higher when we include an estimate for the illegal drugs market, etc - would not lead to any extra spending by the EU in the UK, it is completely correct to say that we would have received a £850m rebate as a result. It's just that the standard operating procedures would have separated the rebate from the contribution.
So it's completely false to say that the rebate was "forgotten", it's just that the procedures do not explicitly link the rebate to individual payments made by the UK.
What Osborne has done is to delay the payment of the bill and bring forward the payment of the implied rebate, so that next year the payment will be of the net amount - that is the net amount as per the standard rules of the EU.
This is exactly the sort of thing Tesco was doing - playing jiggery pokery with payment dates to make the net position look rosier in the current year. In the final analysis the only thing that is different is that the UK has a "time to pay" agreement for less than a year.
It is completely false to say that the bill has been halved, or that the rebate had been "forgotten". That's just presentational bollocks.
A very good summary.
Its LOL time to claim that the rebate was only noticed by George Osborne, a man not renowed for his interest in financial details.
No other Country is being asked for more, which would of course be the case if there was a genuine reduction in the UK bill.
That's the crucial point.
The result of Thatcher winning the rebate in the 80s was that France in particular had to pay more to make up the difference. Indeed, if you look at the EU budget documents you see that some countries - like Germany and Finland - only pay 1/4 of what they would otherwise need to pay to fund the British rebate, to ensure that it is France that mostly does so instead.
If there was a genuine reduction in Britain's bill then some other country would be having to pay more to make up for it. That hasn't happened - thus the conclusion is that the claim of "halving the bill" is simply a deception on a par with Tony "45 minutes" Blair.
And of course the Dutch Finance Minister would have to be lying when he says the UK has received 'no special discount'.
No other Country is being asked for more, which would of course be the case if there was a genuine reduction in the UK bill.
That's the crucial point.
The result of Thatcher winning the rebate in the 80s was that France in particular had to pay more to make up the difference. Indeed, if you look at the EU budget documents you see that some countries - like Germany and Finland - only pay 1/4 of what they would otherwise need to pay to fund the British rebate, to ensure that it is France that mostly does so instead.
If there was a genuine reduction in Britain's bill then some other country would be having to pay more to make up for it. That hasn't happened - thus the conclusion is that the claim of "halving the bill" is simply a deception on a par with Tony "45 minutes" Blair.
You can see who the most tribal of Tories are today, that's for sure.
Indeed.
The most tribal on here are the Kippers who refuse, absolutely refuse under any circumstances, to accept that Cameron and Osborne might have achieved something.
Are 4 EU finance ministers also kippers?
Someone: "I disagree with Cameron" Nabavi: " You are a kipper"
At least you agree that you are a Tory diehard, so your opinion on this is not exactly neutral (classic understatement).
It is bizarre to suggest that UKIP supporters are tribal. If UKIP suddenly became pro-EU, how long would they last? The Conservative Party is where all principle must be subsumed because of 'realpolitik' or 'the art of the possible' or 'not being too ideological' or whatever balls they're calling it these days. And if you leave that you've betrayed the party. That's tribalism.
The rebate being deducted off isn't the rebate off just this payment: it's obviously too high for that because the rebate is a lot less than half of our gross contribution. The rebate is €4 billion off a gross contribution of €17 billion. The rebate payment being deducted off it is part of the UK's general rebate payment off our overall contribution.
The rebate is [roughly*] half of our net contribution.
Since this extra payment by Britain does not increase the EU budget (all the money we, the Netherlands, Greece, etc pay in as part of this adjustment is paid out to other EU states) then it is reasonable to assume that we won't receive any extra EU funding, and so the net position of our contribution to the EU will change by the gross amount of the payment - and so you can reasonably apply the rebate to the gross amount of this payment.
* The rebate was two-thirds, but was then reduced by 20%, so is now 53.3%, I think.
You're incorrect. The rebate is only €4bn. Page 10 here:
This is exactly the sort of thing Tesco was doing - playing jiggery pokery with payment dates to make the net position look rosier in the current year. In the final analysis the only thing that is different is that the UK has a "time to pay" agreement for less than a year.
It is completely false to say that the bill has been halved, or that the rebate had been "forgotten". That's just presentational bollocks.
That argument would make some sense if anyone, anyone at all, had said "The UK is over-reacting, it's not a demand for £1.7bn, because they'll get half of it back the following year". They didn't.
So, either the rebate was not automatic, or it was automatic and they'd forgotten about it until Osborne reminded them.
You are wilfully misunderstanding the situation.
If we are paying less - who is paying more?
You can't answer that question, because we aren't paying less.
You can see who the most tribal of Tories are today, that's for sure.
Indeed.
The most tribal on here are the Kippers who refuse, absolutely refuse under any circumstances, to accept that Cameron and Osborne might have achieved something.
Are 4 EU finance ministers also kippers?
Someone: "I disagree with Cameron" Nabavi: " You are a kipper"
At least you agree that you are a Tory diehard, so your opinion on this is not exactly neutral (classic understatement).
52% want Cameron to refuse to pay, while just 35% want him either to pay up willingly (11%) or play by the rules if forced to do so (24%). However, Cameron will be judged in the end by what he does, rather than what he says. At the moment, voters are sceptical. 61% think we will end up either paying the full amount (31%) or “a little less than £1.7bn” (30%). Only 22% expect us to pay “a lot less” (17%) or nothing (5%).
You can see who the most tribal of Tories are today, that's for sure.
Indeed.
The most tribal on here are the Kippers who refuse, absolutely refuse under any circumstances, to accept that Cameron and Osborne might have achieved something.
Are 4 EU finance ministers also kippers?
Someone: "I disagree with Cameron" Nabavi: " You are a kipper"
At least you agree that you are a Tory diehard, so your opinion on this is not exactly neutral (classic understatement).
52% want Cameron to refuse to pay, while just 35% want him either to pay up willingly (11%) or play by the rules if forced to do so (24%). However, Cameron will be judged in the end by what he does, rather than what he says. At the moment, voters are sceptical. 61% think we will end up either paying the full amount (31%) or “a little less than £1.7bn” (30%). Only 22% expect us to pay “a lot less” (17%) or nothing (5%).
So the bad news for the Tories is that the majority of people will not be impressed with the result. The good news is that it was priced in
True, Tory credibility on the EU was already nil, this only reinforces the negative opinions that people already had about the Tory party and it's leadership.
Luckyguy1983/bigjohnowls Cameron and Osborne did the best they could, if some in the EU want to continue to put British voters' backs up that is their affair, the fastest growing nations in the EU are the UK and Sweden, both outside the euro, the EU needs the UK
I dont disagree that Cameron and Osborne did the best they could with deferring payment but the lie about halving the bill has unravelled, completely.
The electorate will not be fooled IMO
To be fair to Cameron and Osborne I think they were in a pretty impossible position.
But a defeat is still a defeat not a victory.
Sometimes its better to admit the impossibility of your position rather than lying about it and consequently casting doubt on everything you've said on other occasions and on other issues.
Especially if you've got an election then referendum to win.
The deferring of payments and the bringing forward of the rebate were genuine gains, but that is all lost in the bloody-liars-think-we're-fools meme.
No other Country is being asked for more, which would of course be the case if there was a genuine reduction in the UK bill.
That's the crucial point.
The result of Thatcher winning the rebate in the 80s was that France in particular had to pay more to make up the difference. Indeed, if you look at the EU budget documents you see that some countries - like Germany and Finland - only pay 1/4 of what they would otherwise need to pay to fund the British rebate, to ensure that it is France that mostly does so instead.
If there was a genuine reduction in Britain's bill then some other country would be having to pay more to make up for it. That hasn't happened - thus the conclusion is that the claim of "halving the bill" is simply a deception on a par with Tony "45 minutes" Blair.
And of course the Dutch Finance Minister would have to be lying when he says the UK has received 'no special discount'.
But then maybe he is?
To be fair he wouldn't want the Dutch public thinking that he had agreed to pay the full amount asked when Britain had received a discount.
Can anyone provide a link to a mainstream news website, dated on the day the original story broke, saying that the actual cost would be £850m?
There must have also been hundreds of posts on PB on the day the original story broke. Can anyone provide a link to any post saying that the actual cost would be £850m?
No other Country is being asked for more, which would of course be the case if there was a genuine reduction in the UK bill.
That's the crucial point.
The result of Thatcher winning the rebate in the 80s was that France in particular had to pay more to make up the difference. Indeed, if you look at the EU budget documents you see that some countries - like Germany and Finland - only pay 1/4 of what they would otherwise need to pay to fund the British rebate, to ensure that it is France that mostly does so instead.
If there was a genuine reduction in Britain's bill then some other country would be having to pay more to make up for it. That hasn't happened - thus the conclusion is that the claim of "halving the bill" is simply a deception on a par with Tony "45 minutes" Blair.
And of course the Dutch Finance Minister would have to be lying when he says the UK has received 'no special discount'.
But then maybe he is?
To be fair he wouldn't want the Dutch public thinking that he had agreed to pay the full amount asked when Britain had received a discount.
Except the Spanish, Irish and Austrian Finance Ministers have all said the same thing.
52% want Cameron to refuse to pay, while just 35% want him either to pay up willingly (11%) or play by the rules if forced to do so (24%). However, Cameron will be judged in the end by what he does, rather than what he says. At the moment, voters are sceptical. 61% think we will end up either paying the full amount (31%) or “a little less than £1.7bn” (30%). Only 22% expect us to pay “a lot less” (17%) or nothing (5%).
So the bad news for the Tories is that the majority of people will not be impressed with the result. The good news is that it was priced in
True, Tory credibility on the EU was already nil, this only reinforces the negative opinions that people already had about the Tory party and it's leadership.
It amazes me that they bother with these stunts because all it does is remind people why they decided not to vote Tory in the first place. If they had kept cool heads instead of Cameron having a hissy fit they probably could have got a small victory out of this mess. Instead they look like dishonest fools again.
Its like the rugby team on halfway that need a conversion to tie the game or a try to win it. Instead of kicking the conversion they go for the try and get pushed back to their own 22 with the opposition having the put in to the subsequent scrum........
They really are their own worst enemies and when Labour are doing so much to help them as well. You couldn't make it up.....
The SNP @theSNP 18 mins18 minutes ago Answering an audience q on #ge2015, @NicolaSturgeon says the SNP will never go into coalition with the Tories #SNPTour
Kristalina Georgieva, the EU budget commissioner, told a news conference the historic adjustment to national income meant Britain would still have to pay the additional amount it owed but that would be offset by a similarly increased rebate.
"As a result of the adjustment, the UK has to pay more but also as a result the UK rebate will go up. Preliminary calculations show it will be around 1 billion euros," she said of the increase in the rebate next year when payments are made.
Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chairs meetings of euro zone finance ministers, said Osborne had not negotiated a cut in Britain's payment, adding: "This is the application of a very old agreement negotiated by (then-prime minister) Margaret Thatcher, that Britain gets a certain discount.
Cameron and Osborne are utterly risible. Construct a straw man, knock it down and then claim that you've beaten up Mike Tyson. Who do these jokers think they're fooling. Pathetic,
Kristalina Georgieva, the EU budget commissioner, told a news conference the historic adjustment to national income meant Britain would still have to pay the additional amount it owed but that would be offset by a similarly increased rebate.
"As a result of the adjustment, the UK has to pay more but also as a result the UK rebate will go up. Preliminary calculations show it will be around 1 billion euros," she said of the increase in the rebate next year when payments are made.
Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chairs meetings of euro zone finance ministers, said Osborne had not negotiated a cut in Britain's payment, adding: "This is the application of a very old agreement negotiated by (then-prime minister) Margaret Thatcher, that Britain gets a certain discount.
So why did the Treasury not take this into consideration when they first started touting the figures?
Kristalina Georgieva, the EU budget commissioner, told a news conference the historic adjustment to national income meant Britain would still have to pay the additional amount it owed but that would be offset by a similarly increased rebate.
"As a result of the adjustment, the UK has to pay more but also as a result the UK rebate will go up. Preliminary calculations show it will be around 1 billion euros," she said of the increase in the rebate next year when payments are made.
Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chairs meetings of euro zone finance ministers, said Osborne had not negotiated a cut in Britain's payment, adding: "This is the application of a very old agreement negotiated by (then-prime minister) Margaret Thatcher, that Britain gets a certain discount.
I like that Osborne and Cameron's big win is actually merely a crumb from Maggie's table. Still benefiting this country even from beyond the grave Gaw' bless 'er.
The SNP @theSNP 18 mins18 minutes ago Answering an audience q on #ge2015, @NicolaSturgeon says the SNP will never go into coalition with the Tories #SNPTour
A shame, as that would be a pretty hilarious outcome in a way.
The rebate being deducted off isn't the rebate off just this payment: it's obviously too high for that because the rebate is a lot less than half of our gross contribution. The rebate is €4 billion off a gross contribution of €17 billion. The rebate payment being deducted off it is part of the UK's general rebate payment off our overall contribution.
The rebate is [roughly*] half of our net contribution.
Since this extra payment by Britain does not increase the EU budget (all the money we, the Netherlands, Greece, etc pay in as part of this adjustment is paid out to other EU states) then it is reasonable to assume that we won't receive any extra EU funding, and so the net position of our contribution to the EU will change by the gross amount of the payment - and so you can reasonably apply the rebate to the gross amount of this payment.
* The rebate was two-thirds, but was then reduced by 20%, so is now 53.3%, I think.
You're incorrect. The rebate is only €4bn. Page 10 here:
I don't fully understand the details of the UK rebate - as set out on page 33 of the report you link me to - but I can see that it is a lot more complicated than comparing the figure for the rebate in one year with the net contribution in the same year.
I think I'm roughly right - but there are lots of details that make it hard for me to check.
52% want Cameron to refuse to pay, while just 35% want him either to pay up willingly (11%) or play by the rules if forced to do so (24%). However, Cameron will be judged in the end by what he does, rather than what he says. At the moment, voters are sceptical. 61% think we will end up either paying the full amount (31%) or “a little less than £1.7bn” (30%). Only 22% expect us to pay “a lot less” (17%) or nothing (5%).
So the bad news for the Tories is that the majority of people will not be impressed with the result. The good news is that it was priced in
True, Tory credibility on the EU was already nil, this only reinforces the negative opinions that people already had about the Tory party and it's leadership.
It amazes me that they bother with these stunts because all it does is remind people why they decided not to vote Tory in the first place. If they had kept cool heads instead of Cameron having a hissy fit they probably could have got a small victory out of this mess. Instead they look like dishonest fools again.
Its like the rugby team on halfway that need a conversion to tie the game or a try to win it. Instead of kicking the conversion they go for the try and get pushed back to their own 22 with the opposition having the put in to the subsequent scrum........
They really are their own worst enemies and when Labour are doing so much to help them as well. You couldn't make it up.....
Away from PB, Cameron has won a victory. It's only a political victory and as such the on get you stare at it the less significant it looks. But there is only a certain amount of staring a man can or should do. On a PB, , with its group of people who debate the finer political details most of the day every day, who watch the Commons, care about local election bye-election results, it will not impress.
So why did the Treasury not take this into consideration when they first started touting the figures?
I don't know.
Perhaps they did and Cameron and Osborne have manufactured a confrontation they could pass off as a win?
As said earlier, I'm surprised that seasoned MEP's didn't smell a rat, and make an issue of it.
Instead of disputing the amounts and what is and isn't a rebate, those who wish to attack the Tories would be better off going on integrity. In my humble opinion.
You can see who the most tribal of Tories are today, that's for sure.
Indeed.
The most tribal on here are the Kippers who refuse, absolutely refuse under any circumstances, to accept that Cameron and Osborne might have achieved something.
Are 4 EU finance ministers also kippers?
Someone: "I disagree with Cameron" Nabavi: " You are a kipper"
At least you agree that you are a Tory diehard, so your opinion on this is not exactly neutral (classic understatement).
Now I really have seen it all. Cameron and Osborne might be cretinous PR wonks but OPat is in another constellation altogether. I've thought for a while we need some US style negative campaigning, focusing on what individuals, rather than party says and thinks. Owen and his green blob would be ripe for some exposure.
If Labour knives really are going to be out for Ed when they have a shocker in R&S, then Ed really has been stitched up like a kipper with malice aforethought.....
The SNP @theSNP 18 mins18 minutes ago Answering an audience q on #ge2015, @NicolaSturgeon says the SNP will never go into coalition with the Tories #SNPTour
No particular axe to grind on the EU payment, other than to say this is EXACTLY the approach to spinning the result that Blair, Campbell and Mandelson would have taken...
If Labour knives really are going to be out for Ed when they have a shocker in R&S, then Ed really has been stitched up like a kipper with malice aforethought.....
Their fox has been shot and had a poker inserted in its rear.
Such depraved imagery only demonstrates how badly Tories have been perverted and corrupted by their degenerate Libdem partners. I understand delusion is a side effect as well
No other Country is being asked for more, which would of course be the case if there was a genuine reduction in the UK bill.
That's the crucial point.
The result of Thatcher winning the rebate in the 80s was that France in particular had to pay more to make up the difference. Indeed, if you look at the EU budget documents you see that some countries - like Germany and Finland - only pay 1/4 of what they would otherwise need to pay to fund the British rebate, to ensure that it is France that mostly does so instead.
If there was a genuine reduction in Britain's bill then some other country would be having to pay more to make up for it. That hasn't happened - thus the conclusion is that the claim of "halving the bill" is simply a deception on a par with Tony "45 minutes" Blair.
And of course the Dutch Finance Minister would have to be lying when he says the UK has received 'no special discount'.
But then maybe he is?
To be fair he wouldn't want the Dutch public thinking that he had agreed to pay the full amount asked when Britain had received a discount.
Except the Spanish, Irish and Austrian Finance Ministers have all said the same thing.
I agree with you - my typical English understatement can sometimes be missed on the internet.
When I said "To be fair" what that actually meant was "To find the merest crumb of plausibility that allows one to find an interpretation that isn't monumentally humiliating for Osborne's risible claim to have halved the EU bill".
If Labour knives really are going to be out for Ed when they have a shocker in R&S, then Ed really has been stitched up like a kipper with malice aforethought.....
It's not about Ed tonight, for once Mr Mark.
Just an observation on what PtP said below at 7.53....
No particular axe to grind on the EU payment, other than to say this is EXACTLY the approach to spinning the result that Blair, Campbell and Mandelson would have taken...
PR marketing spin from 2002 doesn't work any more, that's the Tory high command problem.
When will we be rid of the 35% strategy myth? No-one has ever provided any evidence that this is Miliband's strategy but time and again it is repeated as fact. On what basis? That Labour trundles along at 35% or below in the polls. So is David Cameron pursuing a 32% strategy? Is Nick Clegg pursuing a 7% strategy. This hokum seems to be based on 2 things. That firstly, Ed Miliband has struggled to poll above 35%. And secondly that he might be able to get into govenment on that basis. And? That's it. All the evidence the Tory media needs, including supposedly sophisticated types like Janan Ganesh at the FT.
The thing is, "35% strategy" means different things to different people. To the Blairites and the Tory media, it means they think Labour have been too "left-wing" and have alienated the supposed swing voters with a super-risky, polarising strategy and policies. But I've also seen the Left talk disparagingly of the "35% strategy", but to them it means more that Labour has been far too cautious and not said anything interesting or distinctive at all, because of complacent assumptions that that they didn't need to say anything radical as 35% of the vote would be in the bag even if Labour said nothing, so why bother taking risks.
And that's the worst part of Labour's crisis. Far from working out what the solution is, there is no agreement in Labour about what even the PROBLEM is and how they've got in such a mess. Proof of that is some people talking up Yvette Cooper as an alternative leader, when frankly I think she has all the characteristics that have doomed Ed.
Totally O/t. Two men, (neither of them Asian), have been been found guilty of sexually exploiting "vulnerable" girls in Essex, making them engage in sexual acts in return for drugs and alcohol.
Quote from current BBC Essex page.
They're being sentenced "later".
Just saying.
The point never was that this behaviour is unique to Asian men, certainly I never said that. It was that the councils covered it up because it was Asian men
PB Moderator
I can't, of course, comment on this post, but I do ask where my promised e-mail from Mike is.
I hear the Tories have got a new leaflet that they are distributing. It shows a bar chart with them on 30 per cent and an arrow pointing to a comment saying ' Tories Whining Here'
The rebate being deducted off isn't the rebate off just this payment: it's obviously too high for that because the rebate is a lot less than half of our gross contribution. The rebate is €4 billion off a gross contribution of €17 billion. The rebate payment being deducted off it is part of the UK's general rebate payment off our overall contribution.
The rebate is [roughly*] half of our net contribution.
Since this extra payment by Britain does not increase the EU budget (all the money we, the Netherlands, Greece, etc pay in as part of this adjustment is paid out to other EU states) then it is reasonable to assume that we won't receive any extra EU funding, and so the net position of our contribution to the EU will change by the gross amount of the payment - and so you can reasonably apply the rebate to the gross amount of this payment.
* The rebate was two-thirds, but was then reduced by 20%, so is now 53.3%, I think.
You're incorrect. The rebate is only €4bn. Page 10 here:
I don't fully understand the details of the UK rebate - as set out on page 33 of the report you link me to - but I can see that it is a lot more complicated than comparing the figure for the rebate in one year with the net contribution in the same year.
I think I'm roughly right - but there are lots of details that make it hard for me to check.
One particularly large discrepancy is that I think the EU works out the net UK contribution on the basis of all payments made to the UK, whereas the UK government works out a net UK contribution for the UK government alone - thus ignoring EU payments made to private organisations based in the UK. This apparently makes a large difference to the net contribution of £1.5bn (or maybe €1.5bn I forget) which makes the figures you cite look quite different.
You'd have thought with the Tories obsession for Fox Hunting Dave could have at least have allowed them a free vote on the issue to sate their blood lust but I suppose Dave's too embarrassed about the Rebekah's Police Horse debacle to risk such a move!
The SNP @theSNP 18 mins18 minutes ago Answering an audience q on #ge2015, @NicolaSturgeon says the SNP will never go into coalition with the Tories #SNPTour
World's least surprising answer given the SNP's position on non-interference in Westminster matters, never mind the policy differences (which will no doubt become greater still under Sturgeon). Still, doesn't rule out a C&S understanding in return for Devo-extra.
And besides, I want to comment on the "street by street, house by house" way that the next election is going to be won by StalingrEd.....
If he was genuinely going to do this, shouldn't he have started in Rochester and Strood?
Kinda what I was thinking. Given that those around him seem to have said "R&S - not a worry for us Ed....let UKIP and the Tories slug it out...." and are then going to be the people in a fortnight shrieking at him for causing a ghastly result, might be time for Ed to start to get worried! If not now, then when?
You'd have thought with the Tories obsession for Fox Hunting Dave could have at least have allowed them a free vote on the issue to sate their blood lust but I suppose Dave's too embarrassed about the Rebekah's Police Horse debacle to risk such a move!
Totally O/t. Two men, (neither of them Asian), have been been found guilty of sexually exploiting "vulnerable" girls in Essex, making them engage in sexual acts in return for drugs and alcohol.
Quote from current BBC Essex page.
They're being sentenced "later".
Just saying.
The point never was that this behaviour is unique to Asian men, certainly I never said that. It was that the councils covered it up because it was Asian men
PB Moderator
I can't, of course, comment on this post, but I do ask where my promised e-mail from Mike is.
Totally O/t. Two men, (neither of them Asian), have been been found guilty of sexually exploiting "vulnerable" girls in Essex, making them engage in sexual acts in return for drugs and alcohol.
Quote from current BBC Essex page.
They're being sentenced "later".
Just saying.
The point never was that this behaviour is unique to Asian men, certainly I never said that. It was that the councils covered it up because it was Asian men
PB Moderator
I can't, of course, comment on this post, but I do ask where my promised e-mail from Mike is.
Danny says -- ''Proof of that is some people talking up Yvette Cooper as an alternative leader, when frankly I think she has all the characteristics that have doomed Ed. ''
Plus being married to Ed Balls. At least we know Miliband cannot stand Balls. But lets keep our fingers crossed.
o/t but interesting: the latest tranche of Wings's Panelbase poll, this time on constitutional issues - notably the popularity of true devomax (=FFA) and the unpopularity of Scottish party leaders being MPs as opposed to MSPs:
Excellent work by the Prime Minister and Chancellor.
And as ever, it makes pb you-kippers look like a miserable old bunch. Moan bloody moan day-in day-out. I'm reminded of that wonderful moment Reagan turned to the equally miserable and sour-faced Walter Mondale and said 'there you go again.'
mhhh - you might need to run past me again how this is "excellent work"
So why did the Treasury not take this into consideration when they first started touting the figures?
I don't know.
Perhaps they did and Cameron and Osborne have manufactured a confrontation they could pass off as a win?
As said earlier, I'm surprised that seasoned MEP's didn't smell a rat, and make an issue of it.
Instead of disputing the amounts and what is and isn't a rebate, those who wish to attack the Tories would be better off going on integrity. In my humble opinion.
Perhaps they did not because there was no clarification that a rebate would apply. otherwise why indeed did not the Commission or MEPs point out or give assurances at the time that a rebate would apply? I doubt it is plausible to manufacture a confrontation. As it is the net payment and delayed payment have caused not insignificant budgeting problems for the EU, so its not something they can be pleased with.
'Can anyone provide a link to a mainstream news website, dated on the day the original story broke, saying that the actual cost would be £850m?'
I asked the same question,nobody can ,but suddenly, after the event we have a lot of EU experts that claim that is what they meant!
Well it was the obvious question wasn't it?
If it was well known that the true cost was only £850m then I would have expected at least some reputable mainstream news sources to have reported it.
I would also have expected it to have been posted by several people on PB. PB is lucky to have many posters (supporters of all parties) with exceptional knowledge of politics - again if it was well known that the true cost was only £850m then I would have expected there to have been a number of posts stating that fact and discussing it.
Is it really the case that nobody can provide any such link to any news source or PB post?
You'd have thought with the Tories obsession for Fox Hunting Dave could have at least have allowed them a free vote on the issue to sate their blood lust but I suppose Dave's too embarrassed about the Rebekah's Police Horse debacle to risk such a move!
No - sorry - it does not work. Keep trying.
If it doesn't work for you it must work in the real world
This is exactly the sort of thing Tesco was doing - playing jiggery pokery with payment dates to make the net position look rosier in the current year. In the final analysis the only thing that is different is that the UK has a "time to pay" agreement for less than a year.
It is completely false to say that the bill has been halved, or that the rebate had been "forgotten". That's just presentational bollocks.
That argument would make some sense if anyone, anyone at all, had said "The UK is over-reacting, it's not a demand for £1.7bn, because they'll get half of it back the following year". They didn't.
So, either the rebate was not automatic, or it was automatic and they'd forgotten about it until Osborne reminded them.
You are wilfully misunderstanding the situation.
If we are paying less - who is paying more?
You can't answer that question, because we aren't paying less.
Why should anyone pay more? They will probably be be receiving less. The net payment and its delayed implimentation means that countries will be paying more in 2015.
Excellent work by the Prime Minister and Chancellor.
And as ever, it makes pb you-kippers look like a miserable old bunch. Moan bloody moan day-in day-out. I'm reminded of that wonderful moment Reagan turned to the equally miserable and sour-faced Walter Mondale and said 'there you go again.'
mhhh - you might need to run past me again how this is "excellent work"
Good evening, everybody. It is only excellent work if you believe, like me, that the UK should pay the fee as agreed under the rules. That it has done - there has been no discount. I have just seen the Osborne interview. I cannot grasp why he believes he has halved the bill. The rebate is a red herring, as it was due anyway.
Excellent work by the Prime Minister and Chancellor.
And as ever, it makes pb you-kippers look like a miserable old bunch. Moan bloody moan day-in day-out. I'm reminded of that wonderful moment Reagan turned to the equally miserable and sour-faced Walter Mondale and said 'there you go again.'
mhhh - you might need to run past me again how this is "excellent work"
If Cammo and Gids dropped turds on Parliament Green and claimed they were diamonds, @audreyanne, our resident tit sucker, would say it was excellent work.
Luckyguy1983/bigjohnowls Cameron and Osborne did the best they could, if some in the EU want to continue to put British voters' backs up that is their affair, the fastest growing nations in the EU are the UK and Sweden, both outside the euro, the EU needs the UK
I dont disagree that Cameron and Osborne did the best they could with deferring payment but the lie about halving the bill has unravelled, completely.
The electorate will not be fooled IMO
To be fair to Cameron and Osborne I think they were in a pretty impossible position.
But a defeat is still a defeat not a victory.
Sometimes its better to admit the impossibility of your position rather than lying about it and consequently casting doubt on everything you've said on other occasions and on other issues.
There are 4 political parties angling for superiority. Two are in coalition abd actually dealing with the issues. Just why should we believe that the other two would be magnanimous about a good deal or be honest about representing the truth. They have constantly screamed blue murder about 1.7 billion. We are paying half that. Now we are expected to blame the govt?? When, just when, did Labour or UKIP ever say that the net figure was 'only' £850 million?
'Can anyone provide a link to a mainstream news website, dated on the day the original story broke, saying that the actual cost would be £850m?'
I asked the same question,nobody can ,but suddenly, after the event we have a lot of EU experts that claim that is what they meant!
Well it was the obvious question wasn't it?
If it was well known that the true cost was only £850m then I would have expected at least some reputable mainstream news sources to have reported it.
I would also have expected it to have been posted by several people on PB. PB is lucky to have many posters (supporters of all parties) with exceptional knowledge of politics - again if it was well known that the true cost was only £850m then I would have expected there to have been a number of posts stating that fact and discussing it.
Is it really the case that nobody can provide any such link to any news source or PB post?
If not, the conclusion is obvious.
Off the top of my head I remember a lot of posts saying that this big cost would be announced up front, then it'd be announced as much reduced and claimed as a victory.
I can't remember if anyone went into the technicalities.
Comments
Spain's Luis de Guindos argued,
“No-one has put into question the [European] Commission’s figures…as perfectly valid. Basically, what we agreed on is the possibility of a delay in payments.”
So, given that this extra payment by the UK - on account of our GNI being higher when we include an estimate for the illegal drugs market, etc - would not lead to any extra spending by the EU in the UK, it is completely correct to say that we would have received a £850m rebate as a result. It's just that the standard operating procedures would have separated the rebate from the contribution.
So it's completely false to say that the rebate was "forgotten", it's just that the procedures do not explicitly link the rebate to individual payments made by the UK.
What Osborne has done is to delay the payment of the bill and bring forward the payment of the implied rebate, so that next year the payment will be of the net amount - that is the net amount as per the standard rules of the EU.
This is exactly the sort of thing Tesco was doing - playing jiggery pokery with payment dates to make the net position look rosier in the current year. In the final analysis the only thing that is different is that the UK has a "time to pay" agreement for less than a year.
It is completely false to say that the bill has been halved, or that the rebate had been "forgotten". That's just presentational bollocks.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-07/u-k-fails-to-win-budget-payment-cut-as-eu-defies-cameron.html
Now confirmed we pay the full £1.7BN first then get our rebate
But a defeat is still a defeat not a victory.
Sometimes its better to admit the impossibility of your position rather than lying about it and consequently casting doubt on everything you've said on other occasions and on other issues.
https://twitter.com/jjwood01
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/07/ed-miliband-more-pressure-quit-labour-leader-byelection-failure-critics
So, either the rebate was not automatic, or it was automatic and they'd forgotten about it until Osborne reminded them.
Someone: "I disagree with Cameron"
Nabavi: " You are a kipper"
At least you agree that you are a Tory diehard, so your opinion on this is not exactly neutral (classic understatement).
Since this extra payment by Britain does not increase the EU budget (all the money we, the Netherlands, Greece, etc pay in as part of this adjustment is paid out to other EU states) then it is reasonable to assume that we won't receive any extra EU funding, and so the net position of our contribution to the EU will change by the gross amount of the payment - and so you can reasonably apply the rebate to the gross amount of this payment.
* The rebate was two-thirds, but was then reduced by 20%, so is now 53.3%, I think.
Whichever way you try to spin this the government has questions to answer......
But I would say that supporters of minor and/or new parties are almost by definition less tribal as they have made a conscious decision to reject the main establishment parties.
Whereas many supporters of the main parties are supporters out of decades of habit ago and/or because of their upbringing.
I've got to admit that the PB Tories have done themselves no favours tonight.
As soon as people heard the 'reduction' spin they asked themselves 'Why is stony broke Euroland being so generous?'. The answer is they're not.
Not too difficult to figure out, except for PB Tories.
The result of Thatcher winning the rebate in the 80s was that France in particular had to pay more to make up the difference. Indeed, if you look at the EU budget documents you see that some countries - like Germany and Finland - only pay 1/4 of what they would otherwise need to pay to fund the British rebate, to ensure that it is France that mostly does so instead.
If there was a genuine reduction in Britain's bill then some other country would be having to pay more to make up for it. That hasn't happened - thus the conclusion is that the claim of "halving the bill" is simply a deception on a par with Tony "45 minutes" Blair.
Its LOL time to claim that the rebate was only noticed by George Osborne, a man not renowed for his interest in financial details.
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 4h4 hours ago
For political geeks the latest judgment in the Sun/Andrew Mitchell libel case
http://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/QB/2014/3590.html …
Plodgate rumbles on and on.
But then maybe he is?
I seem to remember he's stridently anti-wind farm, so not sure how comfortable a fit the SLDs would be.
http://tapnewswire.com/2014/11/owen-paterson-launches-bid-for-conservative-party-leadership-promising-exit-from-the-eu/
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/259692/EU_Finances_2013.pdf
If we are paying less - who is paying more?
You can't answer that question, because we aren't paying less.
52% want Cameron to refuse to pay, while just 35% want him either to pay up willingly (11%) or play by the rules if forced to do so (24%). However, Cameron will be judged in the end by what he does, rather than what he says. At the moment, voters are sceptical. 61% think we will end up either paying the full amount (31%) or “a little less than £1.7bn” (30%). Only 22% expect us to pay “a lot less” (17%) or nothing (5%).
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/11/03/can-cameron-satisfy-voters-europe/
So the bad news for the Tories is that the majority of people will not be impressed with the result. The good news is that it was priced in
The deferring of payments and the bringing forward of the rebate were genuine gains, but that is all lost in the bloody-liars-think-we're-fools meme.
There must have also been hundreds of posts on PB on the day the original story broke. Can anyone provide a link to any post saying that the actual cost would be £850m?
Its like the rugby team on halfway that need a conversion to tie the game or a try to win it. Instead of kicking the conversion they go for the try and get pushed back to their own 22 with the opposition having the put in to the subsequent scrum........
They really are their own worst enemies and when Labour are doing so much to help them as well. You couldn't make it up.....
The SNP @theSNP 18 mins18 minutes ago
Answering an audience q on #ge2015, @NicolaSturgeon says the SNP will never go into coalition with the Tories #SNPTour
"As a result of the adjustment, the UK has to pay more but also as a result the UK rebate will go up. Preliminary calculations show it will be around 1 billion euros," she said of the increase in the rebate next year when payments are made.
Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chairs meetings of euro zone finance ministers, said Osborne had not negotiated a cut in Britain's payment, adding: "This is the application of a very old agreement negotiated by (then-prime minister) Margaret Thatcher, that Britain gets a certain discount.
I think I'm roughly right - but there are lots of details that make it hard for me to check.
on get you stare at it the less significant it looks. But there is only a certain amount of staring a man can or should do. On a PB, , with its group of people who debate the finer political details most of the day every day, who watch the Commons, care about local election bye-election results, it will not impress.
Perhaps they did and Cameron and Osborne have manufactured a confrontation they could pass off as a win?
As said earlier, I'm surprised that seasoned MEP's didn't smell a rat, and make an issue of it.
Instead of disputing the amounts and what is and isn't a rebate, those who wish to attack the Tories would be better off going on integrity. In my humble opinion.
No losers all are happy. EU politics.
When I said "To be fair" what that actually meant was "To find the merest crumb of plausibility that allows one to find an interpretation that isn't monumentally humiliating for Osborne's risible claim to have halved the EU bill".
And that's the worst part of Labour's crisis. Far from working out what the solution is, there is no agreement in Labour about what even the PROBLEM is and how they've got in such a mess. Proof of that is some people talking up Yvette Cooper as an alternative leader, when frankly I think she has all the characteristics that have doomed Ed.
I can't, of course, comment on this post, but I do ask where my promised e-mail from Mike is.
Socrates, have you received yours?
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/12/13/has-daves-veto-shot-ukips-fox/
' Tories Whining Here'
How we laughed.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uxt7VAmfVLk
II. Adagio. Sehr feierlich und sehr langsam
'Can anyone provide a link to a mainstream news website, dated on the day the original story broke, saying that the actual cost would be £850m?'
I asked the same question,nobody can ,but suddenly, after the event we have a lot of EU experts that claim that is what they meant!
(Actually, I initially read 'Ed's Stalingrad' and saw "Adagio. S..." as 'Adios'.
No - sorry - it does not work. Keep trying.
What a ****
Plus being married to Ed Balls. At least we know Miliband cannot stand Balls. But lets keep our fingers crossed.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-meaning-of-devo-max/#more-63101
I doubt it is plausible to manufacture a confrontation. As it is the net payment and delayed payment have caused not insignificant budgeting problems for the EU, so its not something they can be pleased with.
off topic, this is genius
If it was well known that the true cost was only £850m then I would have expected at least some reputable mainstream news sources to have reported it.
I would also have expected it to have been posted by several people on PB. PB is lucky to have many posters (supporters of all parties) with exceptional knowledge of politics - again if it was well known that the true cost was only £850m then I would have expected there to have been a number of posts stating that fact and discussing it.
Is it really the case that nobody can provide any such link to any news source or PB post?
If not, the conclusion is obvious.
The net payment and its delayed implimentation means that countries will be paying more in 2015.
He would impress me if he placed a Khanda poppy wreath.
http://www.khandapoppy.org/shop/
Two are in coalition abd actually dealing with the issues.
Just why should we believe that the other two would be magnanimous about a good deal or be honest about representing the truth.
They have constantly screamed blue murder about 1.7 billion. We are paying half that. Now we are expected to blame the govt??
When, just when, did Labour or UKIP ever say that the net figure was 'only' £850 million?
I can't remember if anyone went into the technicalities.