@OblitusSumMe - Note also that the Guardian, conveniently, forgets to point out that Tax Credits are not counted in the official Welfare expenditure. In that respect, the pie charts underestimate the Welfare bill, I think by about £30bn.
1918 was the only time (I think) that 4 parties were within a range of 20% in votes. Could it happen again in 2015?
It's arguable as to whether that's true. It only is if you count the Coalition Conservatives and Non-Coalition Conservatives as different parties (otherwise, the Tory total is more than 20% ahead of both Lloyd George's and Asquith's Liberals).
While the LG and official Liberals stood against each other and so should be counted separately, I'm not sure whether that's also true of the Coalition and dissenting Tories, who certainly sat together afterwards.
I know, as discussed in the Indian example yesterday, which is suspiciously similar to the 1918 situation!. Metrics like ENP, etc are not really calculable/comparable unless all parties fight all seats.
In May, the BJP won 282 of 545 Indian seats, but on only 31% of the vote (and these totals exclude their electoral allies)....
Incidentally, in the past I've found it remarkably hard to get decent information about where the welfare bill actually goes. The IFS have done a really good briefing note on this:
Table 3.1 on page 8 is a good summary. For example, anyone relying on there being significant savings from Winter Fuel payments or free TV licences for wealthy pensioners needs to take a reality check.
Just received an A3 leaflet through my letterbox from local MP Dame Angela Watkinson
"IMMIGRATION:WHAT YOU ARE TELLING US ABOUT YOUR FEARS
Immigration is the No1 concern of residents and the conservative led government is taking action to stem the immigrant tide and prevent benefit tourism. Too many have automatically received benefits and healthcare before making any contribution to British society This we have stopped: enough is enough. Now only those with the skills to contribute to our economy and the ability to be self sufficient are granted leave to remain. Our measures include:
Limiting EU immigrants access to benefits and removing those who are not here to work..."
Is that true? I heard of a Romanian beggar on the streets of Manchester earlier today whose Aunty was on a monkey a week state top ups
It's not a 'measure', so it can't be judged for truth.
'Limiting' could mean anything -it's mealy mouthed politician speak that people are getting wise to. See also:
BOOSTING our border controls GETTING TOUGH with immigrants who claim out of work benefits TAKING ACTION to deport illegal immigrants STANDING UP for hard working families
None of it has any meaning; it cannot be measured -its success or failure cannot be judged. As empty as candy floss.
Tell us what the measure is, how much it will cost, how it is being implemented, what changes this will result in, what the positive outcome of these changes will be. Otherwise expect to continue to lose support in droves.
Try EDUCATION, EDUCATION, EDUCATION and TOUGH ON CRIME, TOUGH ON THE CAUSES OF CRIME for empty hollow phrases.
1918 was the only time (I think) that 4 parties were within a range of 20% in votes. Could it happen again in 2015?
It's arguable as to whether that's true. It only is if you count the Coalition Conservatives and Non-Coalition Conservatives as different parties (otherwise, the Tory total is more than 20% ahead of both Lloyd George's and Asquith's Liberals).
While the LG and official Liberals stood against each other and so should be counted separately, I'm not sure whether that's also true of the Coalition and dissenting Tories, who certainly sat together afterwards.
I know, as discussed in the Indian example yesterday, which is suspiciously similar to the 1918 situation!. Metrics like ENP, etc are not really calculable/comparable unless all parties fight all seats.
At least that shouldn't be a problem this time, particularly if Scotland, Wales and England are counted separately!
Incidentally, in the past I've found it remarkably hard to get decent information about where the welfare bill actually goes. The IFS have done a really good briefing note on this:
Table 3.1 on page 8 is a good summary. For example, anyone relying on ther being significant savings from Winter Fuel payments or free TV licences for wealthy pensioners needs to take a reality check.
I'm always shocked at how much is spent on disability benefit. I get that they're going to need perhaps 2-3 times more per person than an able bodied job-seeker, but surely the number of disabled people needing help must be tiny?
I note that there will be a double by-election in the crossbenchers' section of the House of Lords hereditary peers due to one death and one retirement. It is now possible due to a new law to retire from the House of Lords.
Whilst the electoral system remains ATV it is adapted to reflect two vacancies. The count is first run to elect the first peer. Then the count is rerun, with the secondary preferences, etc., of those voting for the winner counting. So in effect anyone successful in voting for the first winner will have their minor preferences counted in electing the second winner. This is strange, why do they not just use STV for two vacancies.
Well, the electoral system is AV, not STV, so that answers the last part.
I suppose the logic is the presence of D on the ballot won't alter your relative ranking of A, B, and C.
If D happens to be elected first, re-use the same ballots to determine which of A, B and C is elected next, as if D was never on the ballot.
But there's probably a pathology somewhere...
e.g.
40 DABC 30 ACDB 20 BCDA 10 CDBA
leads to final count of 70 30 A, so D wins election for the first vacancy.
Now, everyone could come back tomorrow and vote again for the next vacancy, in which case their ballots would logically be:-
40 ABC 30 ACB 20 BCA 10 CBA
leading to a (first and) final count of 70 A, etc so A wins election for the second vacancy.
But we observe there is no need to come back tomorrow, as the same result can be obtained by simply recounting the original ballots with D ignored.
"The commission raised its forecast for Britain saying it expected the economy to grow 2.7 per cent next year, compared with the 2.5 per cent May forecast."
Luckily the French and Germans have us, the Dutch, Greeks and Italians to bail them out.
Maybe....
What if time. BIG what if time. What if Cameron stood up in Parliament - sometime early in the New Year perhaps - and said something along the lines of:
"We have reached an impasse in discussions with Brussels on their demand for a further £1.7 billion to prop up the French and German economies. They are now charging us interest at £x million a day.
Well let me tell them this. The British people will decide when and if we pay that sum. We have promised the people an In or Out referendum by 2017 if we are re-elected. Well, today I bring that date forward to May 2016. In the meantime, I will go to Brussels to try and get them to see some sense in fixing their dysfunctional institutions. They can work with me, or not.
But to get their attention, I am today announcing that we will not be paying the £1.7 billion. We will not be paying their interest demands. And further, we will pay NO FURTHER CONTRIBUTIONS TO BRUSSELS - NONE AT ALL - UNTIL THE PEOPLE HAVE HAD THEIR SAY in that referendum.
I know people will say this is in breach of a million Treaty obligations. But frankly, if the British people decide they don't want in, then I would rather our contributions in the meantime were being spent on our NHS, not on the Germans or the French having better hospitals using the UK's money"
That would throw a big stone in a small pond. The EU could respond by throwing us out. The LibDems could be the party of boo-hoo. UKIP - who they any more? Labour could join the LibDems - or try and match the Tory position (good luck with Ed convincing people on that) - or more likely, they would come up with some hopeless, fudgy compromise that suites no-one. They would have to answer the question "If you win in May, would you overturn the contributions freeze?" Watch them squirm on that one.
Meanwhile, the Tories are on about 39% - and can't see anyone in their rear-view mirror.....
Wonderful if it were to happen, but somehow I think it won't...
"The commission raised its forecast for Britain saying it expected the economy to grow 2.7 per cent next year, compared with the 2.5 per cent May forecast."
Luckily the French and Germans have us, the Dutch, Greeks and Italians to bail them out.
Maybe....
What if time. BIG what if time. What if Cameron stood up in Parliament - sometime early in the New Year perhaps - and said something along the lines of:
"We have reached an impasse in discussions with Brussels on their demand for a further £1.7 billion to prop up the French and German economies. They are now charging us interest at £x million a day.
Well let me tell them this. The British people will decide when and if we pay that sum. We have promised the people an In or Out referendum by 2017 if we are re-elected. Well, today I bring that date forward to May 2016. In the meantime, I will go to Brussels to try and get them to see some sense in fixing their dysfunctional institutions. They can work with me, or not.
But to get their attention, I am today announcing that we will not be paying the £1.7 billion. We will not be paying their interest demands. And further, we will pay NO FURTHER CONTRIBUTIONS TO BRUSSELS - NONE AT ALL - UNTIL THE PEOPLE HAVE HAD THEIR SAY in that referendum.
I know people will say this is in breach of a million Treaty obligations. But frankly, if the British people decide they don't want in, then I would rather our contributions in the meantime were being spent on our NHS, not on the Germans or the French having better hospitals using the UK's money"
That would throw a big stone in a small pond. The EU could respond by throwing us out. The LibDems could be the party of boo-hoo. UKIP - who they any more? Labour could join the LibDems - or try and match the Tory position (good luck with Ed convincing people on that) - or more likely, they would come up with some hopeless, fudgy compromise that suites no-one. They would have to answer the question "If you win in May, would you overturn the contributions freeze?" Watch them squirm on that one.
Meanwhile, the Tories are on about 39% - and can't see anyone in their rear-view mirror.....
....And they end up winning by a landslide! Cameron is the new people's hero, and cheering crowds carry him on their shoulders to No. 10, their whistles and air-horns triumphantly sounding -'Beep Beep' 'Beep Beep' 'Beep Beep' 'BEEP BEEP' 'BEEP BEEP' as the images fade and MarqueeMark realises that sound is his morning alarm, and it was all a dream.
I'm always shocked at how much is spent on disability benefit. I get that they're going to need perhaps 2-3 times more per person than an able bodied job-seeker, but surely the number of disabled people needing help must be tiny?
The definition of 'disabled' is quite wide - you can see from that IFS table that there are 3.3 million people getting Disability Living Allowance.
UKIP will have plenty of space as long as the government fails to address illegal immigration, only partially addresses non-EU legal migration, continues to trample over British liberties and supports things like the Met's recruitment strategy (preferring criminal non-white Londoners over law-abiding whites from the Home Counties).
Those IFS figures are fascinating. It's a shame the government could not have provided something similar. But at least it is absolutely clear now where most security spending goes.
I'm always shocked at how much is spent on disability benefit. I get that they're going to need perhaps 2-3 times more per person than an able bodied job-seeker, but surely the number of disabled people needing help must be tiny?
The definition of 'disabled' is quite wide - you can see from that IFS table that there are 3.3 million people getting Disability Living Allowance.
The number of cars with blue badges in some parts of the country, coupled with the apparent vigour of the people emerging from them, is a testament to the unsung powers of the nation's faith healers.
"The commission raised its forecast for Britain saying it expected the economy to grow 2.7 per cent next year, compared with the 2.5 per cent May forecast."
Luckily the French and Germans have us, the Dutch, Greeks and Italians to bail them out.
Maybe....
What if time. BIG what if time. What if Cameron stood up in Parliament - sometime early in the New Year perhaps - and said something along the lines of:
"We have reached an impasse in discussions with Brussels on their demand for a further £1.7 billion to prop up the French and German economies. They are now charging us interest at £x million a day.
Well let me tell them this. The British people will decide when and if we pay that sum. We have promised the people an In or Out referendum by 2017 if we are re-elected. Well, today I bring that date forward to May 2016. In the meantime, I will go to Brussels to try and get them to see some sense in fixing their dysfunctional institutions. They can work with me, or not.
But to get their attention, I am today announcing that we will not be paying the £1.7 billion. We will not be paying their interest demands. And further, we will pay NO FURTHER CONTRIBUTIONS TO BRUSSELS - NONE AT ALL - UNTIL THE PEOPLE HAVE HAD THEIR SAY in that referendum.
I know people will say this is in breach of a million Treaty obligations. But frankly, if the British people decide they don't want in, then I would rather our contributions in the meantime were being spent on our NHS, not on the Germans or the French having better hospitals using the UK's money"
That would throw a big stone in a small pond. The EU could respond by throwing us out. The LibDems could be the party of boo-hoo. UKIP - who they any more? Labour could join the LibDems - or try and match the Tory position (good luck with Ed convincing people on that) - or more likely
Meanwhile, the Tories are on about 39% - and can't see anyone in their rear-view mirror.....
....And they end up winning by a landslide! Cameron is the new people's hero, and cheering crowds carry him on their shoulders to No. 10, their whistles and air-horns triumphantly sounding -'Beep Beep' 'Beep Beep' 'Beep Beep' 'BEEP BEEP' 'BEEP BEEP' as the images fade and MarqueeMark realises that sound is his morning alarm, and it was all a dream.
Can anyone, come up with any time, in the history of his premiership, when Cameron has acted effectively to limit the adverse effects of EU membership on the British people, either by winning gains at European level, finding loopholes or ignoring some measures at national level, or by any other means. As opposed to budget cuts that resulted in our contributions rising, vetos that weren't, picking arguments over minor issues to try and demonstrate 'wins' (and often losing anyway). I'm genuinely all ears.
Incidentally, in the past I've found it remarkably hard to get decent information about where the welfare bill actually goes. The IFS have done a really good briefing note on this:
Table 3.1 on page 8 is a good summary. For example, anyone relying on ther being significant savings from Winter Fuel payments or free TV licences for wealthy pensioners needs to take a reality check.
I'm always shocked at how much is spent on disability benefit. I get that they're going to need perhaps 2-3 times more per person than an able bodied job-seeker, but surely the number of disabled people needing help must be tiny?
Is it because some of these people are in fact elderly-and-therefore-disabled? [edit: not to imply that all old folk are disabled, of course, but a lot become that way in the nature of things]
Luckily the French and Germans have us, the Dutch, Greeks and Italians to bail them out.
Maybe....
........Well let me tell them this. The British people will decide when and if we pay that sum. We have promised the people an In or Out referendum by 2017 if we are re-elected. Well, today I bring that date forward to May 2016. In the meantime, I will go to Brussels to try and get them to see some sense in fixing their dysfunctional institutions. They can work with me, or not.
But to get their attention, I am today announcing that we will not be paying the £1.7 billion. We will not be paying their interest demands. And further, we will pay NO FURTHER CONTRIBUTIONS TO BRUSSELS - NONE AT ALL - UNTIL THE PEOPLE HAVE HAD THEIR SAY in that referendum.
I know people will say this is in breach of a million Treaty obligations. But frankly, if the British people decide they don't want in, then I would rather our contributions in the meantime were being spent on our NHS, not on the Germans or the French having better hospitals using the UK's money"
That would throw a big stone in a small pond. The EU could respond by throwing us out. The LibDems could be the party of boo-hoo. UKIP - who they any more? Labour could join the LibDems - or try and match the Tory position (good luck with Ed convincing people on that) - or more likely, they would come up with some hopeless, fudgy compromise that suites no-one. They would have to answer the question "If you win in May, would you overturn the contributions freeze?" Watch them squirm on that one.
Meanwhile, the Tories are on about 39% - and can't see anyone in their rear-view mirror.....
Putting aside the legal ramifications of defaulting on an agreement, chances are the EU would suspend our membership. There would be chaos and uncertainty for the millions living in each others countries as well as the thousands of businesses on both sides who deal with each other. Much as this might be some fantasy for you it would in fact be a disaster because the financial markets would go into meltdown. My guess think ERM x 10.
One thing is certain there is only one way to withdraw from the EU and that is in a controlled measured and sensible manner, providing a lengthy transitional period (my guess five years) to allow those tied up with the EU to uncouple in a rational manner with considerable reassuring PR to ensure that the horses do not get spooked. All knee-jerk reactionary posturing will do is make life unpleasant for everybody and potentially wreck our economy and those of the rest of the EU.
PS There is no facility within the Lisbon Treaty to expel a nation. They really don't want countries to leave......!
Incidentally, in the past I've found it remarkably hard to get decent information about where the welfare bill actually goes. The IFS have done a really good briefing note on this:
Table 3.1 on page 8 is a good summary. For example, anyone relying on there being significant savings from Winter Fuel payments or free TV licences for wealthy pensioners needs to take a reality check.
The biggest scope for savings is Child Tax Credit.
A single pensioner gets about £8k to live on from state pension + pension credit.
So why on earth does someone earning £25k per year with a child get handed child tax credit on top of their child benefit?
The taxpayer is treating people with children like royalty in comparison with everyone else and it is grossly unfair.
Child Tax Credit should be slashed massively - it should be abolished for anyone with an income above about £15k.
Of course we are told that the cuts disproportionately affect people with children. But that is because people with children are being treated so unbelievably generously in the first place.
Incidentally, in the past I've found it remarkably hard to get decent information about where the welfare bill actually goes. The IFS have done a really good briefing note on this:
Table 3.1 on page 8 is a good summary. For example, anyone relying on ther being significant savings from Winter Fuel payments or free TV licences for wealthy pensioners needs to take a reality check.
I'm always shocked at how much is spent on disability benefit. I get that they're going to need perhaps 2-3 times more per person than an able bodied job-seeker, but surely the number of disabled people needing help must be tiny?
Is it because some of these people are in fact elderly-and-therefore-disabled? [edit: not to imply that all old folk are disabled, of course, but a lot become that way in the nature of things]
Yeah, the age break would be interesting to know. Of 16 to 64 year olds, I'd expect 5-10% as a gut feeling.
I'm always shocked at how much is spent on disability benefit. I get that they're going to need perhaps 2-3 times more per person than an able bodied job-seeker, but surely the number of disabled people needing help must be tiny?
The definition of 'disabled' is quite wide - you can see from that IFS table that there are 3.3 million people getting Disability Living Allowance.
The number of cars with blue badges in some parts of the country, coupled with the apparent vigour of the people emerging from them, is a testament to the unsung powers of the nation's faith healers.
We had a blue badge issued when my wife Jenny was diagnosed with terminal cancer. She looked perfectly fit and healthy, right up until the day before she died. I reigned back my cynicism a little bit after that experience, though I don't doubt there's some degree of abuse.
Mr. Stodge, my sympathies on your brother's condition.
An issue with disability is that it applies so broadly that people quite able to work in most ways (deaf in one ear, or missing their smallest two fingers on one hand) might fall under its umbrella, but so do the most severely affected people, such as your brother.
Incidentally, in the past I've found it remarkably hard to get decent information about where the welfare bill actually goes. The IFS have done a really good briefing note on this:
Table 3.1 on page 8 is a good summary. For example, anyone relying on ther being significant savings from Winter Fuel payments or free TV licences for wealthy pensioners needs to take a reality check.
I'm always shocked at how much is spent on disability benefit. I get that they're going to need perhaps 2-3 times more per person than an able bodied job-seeker, but surely the number of disabled people needing help must be tiny?
Is it because some of these people are in fact elderly-and-therefore-disabled? [edit: not to imply that all old folk are disabled, of course, but a lot become that way in the nature of things]
Only partially. 16% of working age adults are disabled:
Incidentally, in the past I've found it remarkably hard to get decent information about where the welfare bill actually goes. The IFS have done a really good briefing note on this:
Table 3.1 on page 8 is a good summary. For example, anyone relying on there being significant savings from Winter Fuel payments or free TV licences for wealthy pensioners needs to take a reality check.
The biggest scope for savings is Child Tax Credit.
A single pensioner gets about £8k to live on from state pension + pension credit.
So why on earth does someone earning £25k per year with a child get handed child tax credit on top of their child benefit?
The taxpayer is treating people with children like royalty in comparison with everyone else and it is grossly unfair.
Child Tax Credit should be slashed massively - it should be abolished for anyone with an income above about £15k.
Of course we are told that the cuts disproportionately affect people with children. But that is because people with children are being treated so unbelievably generously in the first place.
Only one age group is being treated too generously and its not those under 65
I'm always shocked at how much is spent on disability benefit. I get that they're going to need perhaps 2-3 times more per person than an able bodied job-seeker, but surely the number of disabled people needing help must be tiny?
The definition of 'disabled' is quite wide - you can see from that IFS table that there are 3.3 million people getting Disability Living Allowance.
The number of cars with blue badges in some parts of the country, coupled with the apparent vigour of the people emerging from them, is a testament to the unsung powers of the nation's faith healers.
We had a blue badge issued when my wife Jenny was diagnosed with terminal cancer. She looked perfectly fit and healthy, right up until the day before she died. I reigned back my cynicism a little bit after that experience, though I don't doubt there's some degree of abuse.
My deepest sympathies. I do have first hand experience of the fact that disability cannot be judged from external appearances - I have a friend with AIDS who is often fine but often not, and the trouble he has with walking can strike suddenly. He often gets baleful looks.
On the other hand, I am personally aware of quite a few instances of outright abuse (and more than one case where the badge is routinely used by the spouse of the invalid even when the invalid is not in the car). I know that I should probably make some form of reports.
Incidentally, in the past I've found it remarkably hard to get decent information about where the welfare bill actually goes. The IFS have done a really good briefing note on this:
Table 3.1 on page 8 is a good summary. For example, anyone relying on there being significant savings from Winter Fuel payments or free TV licences for wealthy pensioners needs to take a reality check.
The biggest scope for savings is Child Tax Credit.
A single pensioner gets about £8k to live on from state pension + pension credit.
So why on earth does someone earning £25k per year with a child get handed child tax credit on top of their child benefit?
The taxpayer is treating people with children like royalty in comparison with everyone else and it is grossly unfair.
Child Tax Credit should be slashed massively - it should be abolished for anyone with an income above about £15k.
Of course we are told that the cuts disproportionately affect people with children. But that is because people with children are being treated so unbelievably generously in the first place.
Only one age group is being treated too generously and its not those under 65
Please explain why a pensioner expected to live on £8k per year total is being treated more generously than someone with children earning £25,000 per year who is being given thousands of pounds of Child Tax Credits on top of their Child Benefit.
I'm always shocked at how much is spent on disability benefit. I get that they're going to need perhaps 2-3 times more per person than an able bodied job-seeker, but surely the number of disabled people needing help must be tiny?
The definition of 'disabled' is quite wide - you can see from that IFS table that there are 3.3 million people getting Disability Living Allowance.
The number of cars with blue badges in some parts of the country, coupled with the apparent vigour of the people emerging from them, is a testament to the unsung powers of the nation's faith healers.
We had a blue badge issued when my wife Jenny was diagnosed with terminal cancer. She looked perfectly fit and healthy, right up until the day before she died. I reigned back my cynicism a little bit after that experience, though I don't doubt there's some degree of abuse.
My deepest sympathies. I do have first hand experience of the fact that disability cannot be judged from external appearances - I have a friend with AIDS who is often fine but often not, and the trouble he has with walking can strike suddenly. He often gets baleful looks.
On the other hand, I am personally aware of quite a few instances of outright abuse (and more than one case where the badge is routinely used by the spouse of the invalid even when the invalid is not in the car). I know that I should probably make some form of reports.
If 16% of the UK adult population are officially disabled, that's either a damning indictment of abuse in the system, or a damning indictment of the health service.
It would be interesting to speculate what result the multiple-AV counting system would produce if adopted as a voting system in say three-member constituencies for Westminster...
Incidentally, in the past I've found it remarkably hard to get decent information about where the welfare bill actually goes. The IFS have done a really good briefing note on this:
Table 3.1 on page 8 is a good summary. For example, anyone relying on there being significant savings from Winter Fuel payments or free TV licences for wealthy pensioners needs to take a reality check.
The biggest scope for savings is Child Tax Credit.
A single pensioner gets about £8k to live on from state pension + pension credit.
So why on earth does someone earning £25k per year with a child get handed child tax credit on top of their child benefit?
Only one age group is being treated too generously and its not those under 65
Please explain why a pensioner expected to live on £8k per year total is being treated more generously than someone with children earning £25,000 per year who is being given thousands of pounds of Child Tax Credits on top of their Child Benefit.
WTC subsidise shite employers.
The golden generation have had all the money, are generally wealthier than hard working people in poorly paid jobs, and still whinge at their lot in life.
Mr. Carnyx, it'd be interesting to know if general frailty falls under the umbrella of disability, or dementia.
Edited extra bit: typo. And then a typo in this correction.
No idea really, but I do see that about half the official disabled are reckoned to be above pension age. How this relates to payment of the disability allowance I have no idea. But as the latter is being phased out, is it not?, anyway.
My brother is one of them. He is terminally ill and hasn't been able to work for three years and will almost certainly never work again.
As with your muddle-headed attempt to define liberalism the other night, your serial lack of humanity defines every post you write.
I'm very sorry to hear about your brother.
That said, I don't see how a single example is evidence that one in five people in this country are disabled. Ad hominem attacks and appeals to sentimentality do not refute logic, I'm afraid.
I'm afraid I'm not particularly bothered by silly accusations from someone as smug and sanctimonious as yourself.
I voted today. It's all wifi and high tech now. I got exit polled on leaving. This surprised me as my polling place is one of the smaller ones in the county. Voted for 17 positions and 2 initiatives.
Exit polls will start coming in at about 6 eastern, polls close in most east coast states at either 7 or 8.
New Hampshire and North Carolina will give an early indication of how it's going
I hope the parents and school take responsibility for how this kid got to this point. If your kid has to pretend that everything is fine on the surface, when they're falling apart underneath, then you're doing something seriously wrong.
I voted today. It's all wifi and high tech now. I got exit polled on leaving. This surprised me as my polling place is one of the smaller ones in the county. Voted for 17 positions and 2 initiatives.
Exit polls will start coming in at about 6 eastern, polls close in most east coast states at either 7 or 8.
New Hampshire and North Carolina will give an early indication of how it's going
Is the Senate on a knife edge or are the GOP expecting an easy win?
I voted today. It's all wifi and high tech now. I got exit polled on leaving. This surprised me as my polling place is one of the smaller ones in the county. Voted for 17 positions and 2 initiatives.
Exit polls will start coming in at about 6 eastern, polls close in most east coast states at either 7 or 8.
New Hampshire and North Carolina will give an early indication of how it's going
Is the Senate on a knife edge or are the GOP expecting an easy win?
The only way the Democrats win is if the polls are out by a couple of points across the board. That happens, but it's only about a one in five chance.
I voted today. It's all wifi and high tech now. I got exit polled on leaving. This surprised me as my polling place is one of the smaller ones in the county. Voted for 17 positions and 2 initiatives.
Exit polls will start coming in at about 6 eastern, polls close in most east coast states at either 7 or 8.
New Hampshire and North Carolina will give an early indication of how it's going
Is the Senate on a knife edge or are the GOP expecting an easy win?
3/4 chance of GOP having a majority, according to Nate Silver over at 538.
I voted today. It's all wifi and high tech now. I got exit polled on leaving. This surprised me as my polling place is one of the smaller ones in the county. Voted for 17 positions and 2 initiatives.
Exit polls will start coming in at about 6 eastern, polls close in most east coast states at either 7 or 8.
New Hampshire and North Carolina will give an early indication of how it's going
Is the Senate on a knife edge or are the GOP expecting an easy win?
Pretty much knife edge for the most part if you look at the individual state races. It should be a romp but in essence this is an anti-Obama vote rather than pro-Republican.
That said, I don't see how a single example is evidence that one in five people in this country are disabled.
I'll agree with you here, moreover I know of plenty of people who DO work who could probably claim some version of the crazily expanded remit of "disability"... depression, bad back, obesity etc
Ad hominem attacks and appeals to sentimentality do not refute logic, I'm afraid.
I'm afraid I'm not particularly bothered by silly accusations from someone as smug and sanctimonious as yourself.
You need to reread this several times though Mr Socrates - this is classic "I'm not a racist but" material. "Ad hominem attacks... smug and sanctimonious as yourself"
I get free prescriptions ( courtesy Welsh Govt). As far as I am aware this is my sole current "state benefit ". No tax credits, no child allowances, no disability, no heating allowance, no pension, no JSA, no bus pass, no nothing. Not complaining, as clearly i get NHS, roads, police, etc etc, just wonder what percentage are in my shoes in (virtually) not claiming anything. Am I alone financing the Royal Air Force or whatever?
You need to reread this several times though Mr Socrates - this is classic "I'm not a racist but" material. "Ad hominem attacks... smug and sanctimonious as yourself"
Guilty as charged. If someone attacks me personally, I'll give as good as I get. I never initiate it, however.
I voted today. It's all wifi and high tech now. I got exit polled on leaving. This surprised me as my polling place is one of the smaller ones in the county. Voted for 17 positions and 2 initiatives.
Exit polls will start coming in at about 6 eastern, polls close in most east coast states at either 7 or 8.
New Hampshire and North Carolina will give an early indication of how it's going
Is the Senate on a knife edge or are the GOP expecting an easy win?
Loved voting though - the technology is so cool
Intrigued - what are these wonderful gizmos that have got you so excited? - pretty please!
I voted today. It's all wifi and high tech now. I got exit polled on leaving. This surprised me as my polling place is one of the smaller ones in the county. Voted for 17 positions and 2 initiatives.
Exit polls will start coming in at about 6 eastern, polls close in most east coast states at either 7 or 8.
New Hampshire and North Carolina will give an early indication of how it's going
Is the Senate on a knife edge or are the GOP expecting an easy win?
3/4 chance of GOP having a majority, according to Nate Silver over at 538.
Rob - re your excellent graph - on the graphs the poll averages and the lead average are now just calculated to a whole number - please can you put them back to two decimal places which is much, much more useful.
NB. On the polls list each poll obviously doesn't need to be to two decimal places - that change is sensible - it's just that it's messed up the averages calculation!
The golden generation have had all the money, are generally wealthier than hard working people in poorly paid jobs, and still whinge at their lot in life.
Tax Credits are a symptom of over taxation.
People drawing pensions they paid for aren't the problem; it's people drawing pensions that they didn't pay for that are. Pension credit and public sector workers.
I get free prescriptions ( courtesy Welsh Govt). As far as I am aware this is my sole current "state benefit ". No tax credits, no child allowances, no disability, no heating allowance, no pension, no JSA, no bus pass, no nothing. Not complaining, as clearly i get NHS, roads, police, etc etc, just wonder what percentage are in my shoes in (virtually) not claiming anything. Am I alone financing the Royal Air Force or whatever?
I get free prescriptions ( courtesy Welsh Govt). As far as I am aware this is my sole current "state benefit ". No tax credits, no child allowances, no disability, no heating allowance, no pension, no JSA, no bus pass, no nothing. Not complaining, as clearly i get NHS, roads, police, etc etc, just wonder what percentage are in my shoes in (virtually) not claiming anything. Am I alone financing the Royal Air Force or whatever?
Nobody talks about Child Tax credits because they are complicated and journalists earn too much to qualify.
But look at the numbers - they are staggering:
Cost - £23 billion
Number of claimants - 4.1 million
So the AVERAGE person claiming child tax credits is receiving ....... wait for it ...... £5,600.
And that is JUST their Child Tax credit.
They will also get Child Benefit, and most likely Working Tax credit as well.
It's breathtaking.
So less than Oldies get and yet they still pay their taxes to support the Oldies.
Many single pensioners are living on £8k GRAND TOTAL.
You really think it's fair that someone working, with two children, earning say £20k, should get handed £5,600 tax credits plus £1,700 child benefit on top of their salary (on which they will have paid tax / NI of about £3k). So:
Gross salary = £20k Net to live on = £24k - ie 20 - 3 + 5.6 + 1.7
I get free prescriptions ( courtesy Welsh Govt). As far as I am aware this is my sole current "state benefit ". No tax credits, no child allowances, no disability, no heating allowance, no pension, no JSA, no bus pass, no nothing. Not complaining, as clearly i get NHS, roads, police, etc etc, just wonder what percentage are in my shoes in (virtually) not claiming anything. Am I alone financing the Royal Air Force or whatever?
Same here , prescriptions is only benefit I have ever had , I may have got a smidgin of child benefit at some point but not sure it was around in the 70's. Hard to estimate the tax I have paid over the years but still paying in thousands a month, so I am helping you in paying those aircraft carriers.
Next year I will get a bus pass , but as I never use a bus its not much of a benefit.
I get free prescriptions ( courtesy Welsh Govt). As far as I am aware this is my sole current "state benefit ". No tax credits, no child allowances, no disability, no heating allowance, no pension, no JSA, no bus pass, no nothing. Not complaining, as clearly i get NHS, roads, police, etc etc, just wonder what percentage are in my shoes in (virtually) not claiming anything. Am I alone financing the Royal Air Force or whatever?
Actually you get more than I do!
Sorry:-) Think I must've claimed two last year so that's about 15 quid on that side of the ledger!
Putting aside the legal ramifications of defaulting on an agreement, chances are the EU would suspend our membership. There would be chaos and uncertainty for the millions living in each others countries as well as the thousands of businesses on both sides who deal with each other. Much as this might be some fantasy for you it would in fact be a disaster because the financial markets would go into meltdown. My guess think ERM x 10.
One thing is certain there is only one way to withdraw from the EU and that is in a controlled measured and sensible manner, providing a lengthy transitional period (my guess five years) to allow those tied up with the EU to uncouple in a rational manner with considerable reassuring PR to ensure that the horses do not get spooked. All knee-jerk reactionary posturing will do is make life unpleasant for everybody and potentially wreck our economy and those of the rest of the EU.
PS There is no facility within the Lisbon Treaty to expel a nation. They really don't want countries to leave......!
I don't buy your uncertainty argument. We already have that In-Out uncertainty, if the Tories win in May. My scenario has one year LESS uncertainty, by bringing the referendum one year forward.
Your scenario of "not frightening the horses" sounds more like what Nick Clegg would say. Are you sure you're a kipper?
I voted today. It's all wifi and high tech now. I got exit polled on leaving. This surprised me as my polling place is one of the smaller ones in the county. Voted for 17 positions and 2 initiatives.
Exit polls will start coming in at about 6 eastern, polls close in most east coast states at either 7 or 8.
New Hampshire and North Carolina will give an early indication of how it's going
Given it is a constituency vote for senate rather than a nationwide presidential vote, I think it will take a while for the picture to emerge.
I always curse Ross Perot though my wife probably doesn't. I was in Maine on our honeymoon on election night in 1992 and expected a great election night in front of the box. Instead by the time we'd switched on TV after booking into our motel and eaten something, all the networks had already declared for Clinton and were screening something else - what an anticlimax. That's what exit polls and a very clear result bring.
An issue with disability is that it applies so broadly that people quite able to work in most ways (deaf in one ear, or missing their smallest two fingers on one hand) might fall under its umbrella, but so do the most severely affected people, such as your brother.
A remarkably precise example, Mr Dancer, which applies directly to my family. My brother is officially registered as disabled in the UK for missing the two smallest fingers on his left hand. The equivalent two fingers to those of Boris Yeltsin who lost his whilst playing with a live hand grenade, as it happens, but I digress.
It doesn't make the slightest difference to his life apart from background frustration at no longer being able to play the saxophone. But it's useful when applying for jobs that have quotas to fill.
Disability is indeed a very broad spectrum. Not all of the Disabled are disabled.
I get free prescriptions ( courtesy Welsh Govt). As far as I am aware this is my sole current "state benefit ". No tax credits, no child allowances, no disability, no heating allowance, no pension, no JSA, no bus pass, no nothing. Not complaining, as clearly i get NHS, roads, police, etc etc, just wonder what percentage are in my shoes in (virtually) not claiming anything. Am I alone financing the Royal Air Force or whatever?
There are a great many that don't get anything beyond the level that they paid contributions for.
The tax credit system is quite frankly obscene. Brown increased the bill by 116% in 7 years.
Some housing benefit payments and the ludicrous long reach of "disability" are also big problems, as are all the freebies that resulted from the proposed 73p pension rise of Oct 1999.
It's quite astonishing just how many problems go back to the earliest days of New Labour and Brown's decision making.
TimB Doubt it will make much difference, if you want a GOP Senate you will be voting for Roberts anyway, Orman of course voted for Romney in 2012 so Biden is a little optimistic
I voted today. It's all wifi and high tech now. I got exit polled on leaving. This surprised me as my polling place is one of the smaller ones in the county. Voted for 17 positions and 2 initiatives.
Exit polls will start coming in at about 6 eastern, polls close in most east coast states at either 7 or 8.
New Hampshire and North Carolina will give an early indication of how it's going
Given it is a constituency vote for senate rather than a nationwide presidential vote, I think it will take a while for the picture to emerge.
I always curse Ross Perot though my wife probably doesn't. I was in Maine on our honeymoon on election night in 1992 and expected a great election night in front of the box. Instead by the time we'd switched on TV after booking into our motel and eaten something, all the networks had already declared for Clinton and were screening something else - what an anticlimax. That's what exit polls and a very clear result bring.
I thought Perot's supporters split 50:50 Bush:Clinton in polling so didn't affect the result at all.
I get free prescriptions ( courtesy Welsh Govt). As far as I am aware this is my sole current "state benefit ". No tax credits, no child allowances, no disability, no heating allowance, no pension, no JSA, no bus pass, no nothing. Not complaining, as clearly i get NHS, roads, police, etc etc, just wonder what percentage are in my shoes in (virtually) not claiming anything. Am I alone financing the Royal Air Force or whatever?
Actually you get more than I do!
Sorry:-) Think I must've claimed two last year so that's about 15 quid on that side of the ledger!
Thinking about it while I don't claim anything my wife has had breast cancer so gets free prescriptions.
Nobody talks about Child Tax credits because they are complicated and journalists earn too much to qualify.
But look at the numbers - they are staggering:
Cost - £23 billion
Number of claimants - 4.1 million
So the AVERAGE person claiming child tax credits is receiving ....... wait for it ...... £5,600.
And that is JUST their Child Tax credit.
They will also get Child Benefit, and most likely Working Tax credit as well.
It's breathtaking.
So less than Oldies get and yet they still pay their taxes to support the Oldies.
Many single pensioners are living on £8k GRAND TOTAL.
You really think it's fair that someone working, earning say £20k, should get handed £5,600 tax credits plus £1,700 child benefit on top of their salary (on which they will have paid tax / NI of about £3k). So:
Gross salary = £20k Net to live on = £24k - ie 20 - 3 + 5.6 + 1.7
And the pensioner is living on £8k!
It is obscene.
A period of 15+ years of healthy retirement is an obscene luxury which won't be enjoyed by those youngsters in the workforce who are currently planning their own families.
Just shouting "It's not fair" or "I demand more" doesn't mean you should get it.
Incidentally, in the past I've found it remarkably hard to get decent information about where the welfare bill actually goes. The IFS have done a really good briefing note on this:
Table 3.1 on page 8 is a good summary. For example, anyone relying on ther being significant savings from Winter Fuel payments or free TV licences for wealthy pensioners needs to take a reality check.
I'm always shocked at how much is spent on disability benefit. I get that they're going to need perhaps 2-3 times more per person than an able bodied job-seeker, but surely the number of disabled people needing help must be tiny?
Richard N's very helpful reference gives the answer - 1.8 million are getting Employment and Support Allowance, which is designed to help people with disabilities to work (if that's what you were referring to?). Given the size of the population, that doesn't seem an especially large number. There's a separate category of people who are really unable to work wit hor without help, and get DLA merely to live adequately.
As an MP I had serious doubts about a handful of claimants and there was a largish group who were most fairly described as "getting by with difficulty", for whom I felt that moderate assistance was about right. There were also a fair number of cases of people who clearly needed help badly and had got tangled up in the system because they'd filled in the application wrongly or didn't know where to go, etc. - this is the classic case where the CAB or MP can sort something out and make a big difference for an individual. (Yes, I know the argument that MPs shouldn't need to - that's correct, but sometimes people just don't know where else to turn, and MPs tend to be quite effective problem-solvers in dealing with constituents.)
I get free prescriptions ( courtesy Welsh Govt). As far as I am aware this is my sole current "state benefit ". No tax credits, no child allowances, no disability, no heating allowance, no pension, no JSA, no bus pass, no nothing. Not complaining, as clearly i get NHS, roads, police, etc etc, just wonder what percentage are in my shoes in (virtually) not claiming anything. Am I alone financing the Royal Air Force or whatever?
The only thing I "get" is the 25% Single Occupancy reduction on my council tax.
Incidentally, in the past I've found it remarkably hard to get decent information about where the welfare bill actually goes. The IFS have done a really good briefing note on this:
Table 3.1 on page 8 is a good summary. For example, anyone relying on ther being significant savings from Winter Fuel payments or free TV licences for wealthy pensioners needs to take a reality check.
I'm always shocked at how much is spent on disability benefit. I get that they're going to need perhaps 2-3 times more per person than an able bodied job-seeker, but surely the number of disabled people needing help must be tiny?
Richard N's very helpful reference gives the answer - 1.8 million are getting Employment and Support Allowance, which is designed to help people with disabilities to work (if that's what you were referring to?). Given the size of the population, that doesn't seem an especially large number. There's a separate category of people who are really unable to work wit hor without help, and get DLA merely to live adequately.
As an MP I had serious doubts about a handful of claimants and there was a largish group who were most fairly described as "getting by with difficulty", for whom I felt that moderate assistance was about right. There were also a fair number of cases of people who clearly needed help badly and had got tangled up in the system because they'd filled in the application wrongly or didn't know where to go, etc. - this is the classic case where the CAB or MP can sort something out and make a big difference for an individual. (Yes, I know the argument that MPs shouldn't need to - that's correct, but sometimes people just don't know where else to turn, and MPs tend to be quite effective problem-solvers in dealing with constituents.)
Thanks Nick. The right answer clearly lies in appreciating there is a spectrum. But 16% of the working age population has to be five million odd. It sounds like about 40% of them are getting into work. It would be good to see if the government has statistics on severity of disability. I wonder what the rates of disability are in other countries. That would be interesting to see.
I voted today. It's all wifi and high tech now. I got exit polled on leaving. This surprised me as my polling place is one of the smaller ones in the county. Voted for 17 positions and 2 initiatives.
Exit polls will start coming in at about 6 eastern, polls close in most east coast states at either 7 or 8.
New Hampshire and North Carolina will give an early indication of how it's going
Is the Senate on a knife edge or are the GOP expecting an easy win?
Loved voting though - the technology is so cool
Intrigued - what are these wonderful gizmos that have got you so excited? - pretty please!
I remember voting in England - a shaky plywood voting booth with a pencil tied with a bit of string, and a mark next to your name in the voter list.
Here it starts lotech - the first desk hands you a clipboard and pencil and you have to fill out a form saying who you are and that you will not vote again today anywhere else. You hand that back with your drivers license (for non-drivers who need photoID you get an 'invalid' drivers license) and the clerk checks it then hands it back to you
you follow the arrows taped to the carpet to the next desk where the clerk scans the back of your drivers license and your name and address appears on the tablet in front of her from the voters roll.
More arrows, then at the next station what looks like a chip and pin credit card is loaded wih the ballot and handed to you.
More arrows and now I'm waiting for a voting machine, which is esentially a touch screen pc. Get to the machine, load the card and it automatically brings up the instruction page. Hit next and the first page of candidates pops up. Touch a box next to the candidates you want, then hit next and screen 2 turns up.
After the candiddate screens are done, the initiatives page turns up. There were only 2 this time.
After that the summary page turns up showing all your votes. When you're sure you hit CAST and it writes your vote to the card and ejects it.
You hand the card to the nice lady, who hands you a circular sticker with a picture of a peach and the slogan "I'm a Georgia voter."
Can anyone, come up with any time, in the history of his premiership, when Cameron has acted effectively to limit the adverse effects of EU membership on the British people, either by winning gains at European level, finding loopholes or ignoring some measures at national level, or by any other means. As opposed to budget cuts that resulted in our contributions rising, vetos that weren't, picking arguments over minor issues to try and demonstrate 'wins' (and often losing anyway). I'm genuinely all ears.
Apparently Barbara Windsor had a go at Mr Cameron recently:
"...what are you going to do about Angela Merkel, then? The Europeans are making you look a bit of a prat, you know. .... I’ve played Carry On characters who handled foreigners with more poise than you’ve been demonstrating, sir."
Nobody talks about Child Tax credits because they are complicated and journalists earn too much to qualify.
But look at the numbers - they are staggering:
Cost - £23 billion
Number of claimants - 4.1 million
So the AVERAGE person claiming child tax credits is receiving ....... wait for it ...... £5,600.
And that is JUST their Child Tax credit.
They will also get Child Benefit, and most likely Working Tax credit as well.
It's breathtaking.
So less than Oldies get and yet they still pay their taxes to support the Oldies.
Many single pensioners are living on £8k GRAND TOTAL.
You really think it's fair that someone working, earning say £20k, should get handed £5,600 tax credits plus £1,700 child benefit on top of their salary (on which they will have paid tax / NI of about £3k). So:
Gross salary = £20k Net to live on = £24k - ie 20 - 3 + 5.6 + 1.7
And the pensioner is living on £8k!
It is obscene.
A period of 15+ years of healthy retirement is an obscene luxury which won't be enjoyed by those youngsters in the workforce who are currently planning their own families.
Just shouting "It's not fair" or "I demand more" doesn't mean you should get it.
I am not a pensioner. Thanks.
I just put the figures forward so people can see what they are.
In my view, the majority of people in this country would not consider the magnitude of Child Tax credit payments to be fair.
If the Dems somehow manage to hang on tonight, they have to win Iowa and Colorado and hope Orman pulls it off in Kansas.
Personally i'm very pessimistic about their chances. I think they'll lose Louisiana, Arkansas, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, New Hampshire, Alaska, Colorado. Maybe just maybe hang on in North Carolina
I voted today. It's all wifi and high tech now. I got exit polled on leaving. This surprised me as my polling place is one of the smaller ones in the county. Voted for 17 positions and 2 initiatives.
Exit polls will start coming in at about 6 eastern, polls close in most east coast states at either 7 or 8.
New Hampshire and North Carolina will give an early indication of how it's going
Given it is a constituency vote for senate rather than a nationwide presidential vote, I think it will take a while for the picture to emerge.
I always curse Ross Perot though my wife probably doesn't. I was in Maine on our honeymoon on election night in 1992 and expected a great election night in front of the box. Instead by the time we'd switched on TV after booking into our motel and eaten something, all the networks had already declared for Clinton and were screening something else - what an anticlimax. That's what exit polls and a very clear result bring.
If the GOP win both NH and NC they're in for a big night and possibly the proverbial 'wave' elecion.
I voted today. It's all wifi and high tech now. I got exit polled on leaving. This surprised me as my polling place is one of the smaller ones in the county. Voted for 17 positions and 2 initiatives.
Exit polls will start coming in at about 6 eastern, polls close in most east coast states at either 7 or 8.
New Hampshire and North Carolina will give an early indication of how it's going
Is the Senate on a knife edge or are the GOP expecting an easy win?
Loved voting though - the technology is so cool
Intrigued - what are these wonderful gizmos that have got you so excited? - pretty please!
I remember voting in England - a shaky plywood voting booth with a pencil tied with a bit of string, and a mark next to your name in the voter list.
Here it starts lotech - the first desk hands you a clipboard and pencil and you have to fill out a form saying who you are and that you will not vote again today anywhere else. You hand that back with your drivers license (for non-drivers who need photoID you get an 'invalid' drivers license) and the clerk checks it then hands it back to you
you follow the arrows taped to the carpet to the next desk where the clerk scans the back of your drivers license and your name and address appears on the tablet in front of her from the voters roll.
More arrows, then at the next station what looks like a chip and pin credit card is loaded wih the ballot and handed to you.
More arrows and now I'm waiting for a voting machine, which is esentially a touch screen pc. Get to the machine, load the card and it automatically brings up the instruction page. Hit next and the first page of candidates pops up. Touch a box next to the candidates you want, then hit next and screen 2 turns up.
After the candiddate screens are done, the initiatives page turns up. There were only 2 this time.
After that the summary page turns up showing all your votes. When you're sure you hit CAST and it writes your vote to the card and ejects it.
You hand the card to the nice lady, who hands you a circular sticker with a picture of a peach and the slogan "I'm a Georgia voter."
Then you're done.
So you don't actually put it in a box, or see anyone do that?
I would be very surprised if the Democrats win Iowa. If Orman is the deciding vote, then I think he'll go with the Democrats, because they would tolerate ideological deviancy more than the GOP, but if the Republicans win anyway, it would make sense for him to go with them, to get committee appointments.
Wasn't it Thatcher who really boosted the figures of those on Invalidity Benefit as a way to fiddle the unemployment figures?
Margaret was far too busy cursing the first-born, making the rivers run red with blood and spreading a plague o'er the land to bother with such mundanity. Though, of course, correcting myself, I should remember that she was actually the root of all Evil. So, you're probably right.
Obama now calling into WNPR an NPR station in Conncticut. The spinning is beginning already. "These states are the worst for Democrats since Eisenhower and tend to tilt Republican"
Obama now calling into WNPR an NPR station in Conncticut. The spinning is beginning already. "These states are the worst for Democrats since Eisenhower and tend to tilt Republican"
It's accurate spinning though. The 2016 map is the opposite, being awful for the Republicans.
I voted today. It's all wifi and high tech now. I got exit polled on leaving. This surprised me as my polling place is one of the smaller ones in the county. Voted for 17 positions and 2 initiatives.
Exit polls will start coming in at about 6 eastern, polls close in most east coast states at either 7 or 8.
New Hampshire and North Carolina will give an early indication of how it's going
Is the Senate on a knife edge or are the GOP expecting an easy win?
Loved voting though - the technology is so cool
Intrigued - what are these wonderful gizmos that have got you so excited? - pretty please!
I remember voting in England - a shaky plywood voting booth with a pencil tied with a bit of string, and a mark next to your name in the voter list.
Here it starts lotech - the first desk hands you a clipboard and pencil and you have to fill out a form saying who you are and that you will not vote again today anywhere else. You hand that back with your drivers license (for non-drivers who need photoID you get an 'invalid' drivers license) and the clerk checks it then hands it back to you
you follow the arrows taped to the carpet to the next desk where the clerk scans the back of your drivers license and your name and address appears on the tablet in front of her from the voters roll.
More arrows, then at the next station what looks like a chip and pin credit card is loaded wih the ballot and handed to you.
More arrows and now I'm waiting for a voting machine, which is esentially a touch screen pc. Get to the machine, load the card and it automatically brings up the instruction page. Hit next and the first page of candidates pops up. Touch a box next to the candidates you want, then hit next and screen 2 turns up.
After the candiddate screens are done, the initiatives page turns up. There were only 2 this time.
After that the summary page turns up showing all your votes. When you're sure you hit CAST and it writes your vote to the card and ejects it.
You hand the card to the nice lady, who hands you a circular sticker with a picture of a peach and the slogan "I'm a Georgia voter."
Then you're done.
So you don't actually put it in a box, or see anyone do that?
Golly!
Sorry, yes she drops it in a locked box with a slot in the top
Richard N's very helpful reference gives the answer - 1.8 million are getting Employment and Support Allowance, which is designed to help people with disabilities to work (if that's what you were referring to?). Given the size of the population, that doesn't seem an especially large number. There's a separate category of people who are really unable to work wit hor without help, and get DLA merely to live adequately.
That's just not true. ESA is the benefit for anyone who is currently unemployed and not well enough to work. Some can be said to be disabled (although of course many disabled people work) or have long-term medical condition(s). Others are still employed and have run out of Statutory Sick Pay (or their employer's scheme), have taken ill health retirement (you can get Contribution Based ESA even if you have a pension, although not the means-tested version) or might just be unemployed and have been signed off for more than 2 weeks by your doctor, as you can't be unwell for more than 2 weeks (or more than twice in a year) and still claim JSA.
DLA - being replaced by PIP - is not just for people "really unable to work without help, and [who] get DLA merely to live adequately" as it is not a means tested benefit and you get it even if you work. It is designed to help with the additional costs of daily living or mobility, and is paid at a higher and lower level. Someone in a wheelchair, for example, would no doubt get the higher level of PIP mobility but as long as they could get to work may be perfectly able to do a desk job, assuming that is their only disability. Help with the costs of getting to work is provided through Access to Work as DLA/PIP are supposed to help with daily life, not the costs of employment.
Really, I would have expected an aspirant MP to be a bit more up to speed on this sort of thing.
The question I ponder is why more and more people are claiming ill health benefits despite the fact that medical science is advancing all the time. Later retirement ages, and maybe the fact we are successful in keeping more people alive, albeit with impaired lives, may be two of the reasons.
The golden generation have had all the money, are generally wealthier than hard working people in poorly paid jobs, and still whinge at their lot in life.
Tax Credits are a symptom of over taxation.
People drawing pensions they paid for aren't the problem; it's people drawing pensions that they didn't pay for that are. Pension credit and public sector workers.
Maybe I spoke too soon. Got a call from a friend trying to vote at his polling station. A line was forming as the GA Secretary of State website had gone down. Oh dear. It was back up promptly
Allypally Polls show the Dems hanging onto NH too, LA and GA may well go to run-offs
LA will almost certainly go to a run-off, funnily enough for Landrieu would probably prefer the GOP to win the senate tonight, so the GOP can't play the run-off as having national implications.
The golden generation have had all the money, are generally wealthier than hard working people in poorly paid jobs, and still whinge at their lot in life.
Tax Credits are a symptom of over taxation.
People drawing pensions they paid for aren't the problem; it's people drawing pensions that they didn't pay for that are. Pension credit and public sector workers.
So Tories do envy then?
They envy people who are perfectly healthy retiring at 54. But to be fair you have dedicated your entire life to the NHS.
I get free prescriptions ( courtesy Welsh Govt). As far as I am aware this is my sole current "state benefit ". No tax credits, no child allowances, no disability, no heating allowance, no pension, no JSA, no bus pass, no nothing. Not complaining, as clearly i get NHS, roads, police, etc etc, just wonder what percentage are in my shoes in (virtually) not claiming anything. Am I alone financing the Royal Air Force or whatever?
There are a great many that don't get anything beyond the level that they paid contributions for.
The tax credit system is quite frankly obscene. Brown increased the bill by 116% in 7 years.
Some housing benefit payments and the ludicrous long reach of "disability" are also big problems, as are all the freebies that resulted from the proposed 73p pension rise of Oct 1999.
It's quite astonishing just how many problems go back to the earliest days of New Labour and Brown's decision making.
Tax credits subsidise employers who are paying shite wages
Allypally Polls show the Dems hanging onto NH too, LA and GA may well go to run-offs
LA will almost certainly go to a run-off, funnily enough for Landrieu would probably prefer the GOP to win the senate tonight, so the GOP can't play the run-off as having national implications.
LA has 2 yes 2 Republicans running. Landrieu will probably win tonight for that reason. But she will lose the runoff next month. She's on the wrong side of the issues there. It is one of the worst hit states by Obamacare increases, and she supported Obama's energy policies, which have hit the state hard.
My home state I think might go Republican tonight. I have yet to see a Michelle Nunn sign anywhere.
An issue with disability is that it applies so broadly that people quite able to work in most ways (deaf in one ear, or missing their smallest two fingers on one hand) might fall under its umbrella, but so do the most severely affected people, such as your brother.
A remarkably precise example, Mr Dancer, which applies directly to my family. My brother is officially registered as disabled in the UK for missing the two smallest fingers on his left hand. The equivalent two fingers to those of Boris Yeltsin who lost his whilst playing with a live hand grenade, as it happens, but I digress.
It doesn't make the slightest difference to his life apart from background frustration at no longer being able to play the saxophone. But it's useful when applying for jobs that have quotas to fill.
Disability is indeed a very broad spectrum. Not all of the Disabled are disabled.
Surely the concept of being "registered disabled" was abolished several years ago, and disability is now defined as "if you have a physical or mental impairment that has a ‘substantial’ and ‘long-term’ negative effect on your ability to do normal daily activities." https://www.gov.uk/definition-of-disability-under-equality-act-2010 Which I doubt would cover your brother.
Allypally Polls show the Dems hanging onto NH too, LA and GA may well go to run-offs
LA will almost certainly go to a run-off, funnily enough for Landrieu would probably prefer the GOP to win the senate tonight, so the GOP can't play the run-off as having national implications.
LA has 2 yes 2 Republicans running. Landrieu will probably win tonight for that reason. But she will lose the runoff next month. She's on the wrong side of the issues there. It is one of the worst hit states by Obamacare increases, and she supported Obama's energy policies, which have hit the state hard.
My home state I think might go Republican tonight. I have yet to see a Michelle Nunn sign anywhere.
What are Obama's energy policies? He's overseen a massive expansion of shale gas fracking and is about to see the US become a net exporter of energy. I'd say that isn't a bad really!
PS There is no facility within the Lisbon Treaty to expel a nation. They really don't want countries to leave......!
I don't buy your uncertainty argument. We already have that In-Out uncertainty, if the Tories win in May. My scenario has one year LESS uncertainty, by bringing the referendum one year forward.
Your scenario of "not frightening the horses" sounds more like what Nick Clegg would say. Are you sure you're a kipper?
My party allegiances are irrelevant in this. However I do recognise the difference between a minor squabble between partners in a customs union and a major bust-up which could end with neither parties having control of the outcome.
You are suggesting that the UK doesn't just default on an unjustifiable additional bill which on its own would be no big issue, what you are suggesting is that the UK breach the Lisbon Treaty in a fundamental way and in a way that has financial implications for both the UK and the EU. The EU could not let that slide. They would have to respond. As I said the likely response would have to be for the EU either to threaten to suspend us or actually suspend us and that act would in my view frighten the horses. No country has previously been suspended and therefore the practical implications of what suspension might mean are unclear. Does it mean that the UK no longer has access to the single market? Does it mean that free movement of labour is suspended. Does it mean the subsidies from the EU to UK cease immediately? Do you know? That you are talking of that suspension lasting for more than a year means that the UK would be in limbo for the whole of that period. Such escalations cannot be contemplated in such a superficial and complacent way as you are doing. The financial markets would have a fit
Oh and by the way whatever happens we would still legally be required to cough up the money and if we didn't the reputational damage would certainly not help our borrowing costs. Of course after such events the referendum would likely be a foregone conclusion but the subsequent withdrawal negotiations would be far more difficult as a result and likely lead to a far less satisfactory outcome.
I want the UK to leave the EU and I want it to leave under the best terms possible. That will not be achieved by pointless exaggerated gesture politics that will only irritate those in Brussels andmake them even less co-operative than they currently are.
Comments
http://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/bns/BN13_Benefits_Survey_2014.pdf
Table 3.1 on page 8 is a good summary. For example, anyone relying on there being significant savings from Winter Fuel payments or free TV licences for wealthy pensioners needs to take a reality check.
40 DABC
30 ACDB
20 BCDA
10 CDBA
leads to final count of 70
Now, everyone could come back tomorrow and vote again for the next vacancy, in which case their ballots would logically be:-
40 ABC
30 ACB
20 BCA
10 CBA
leading to a (first and) final count of 70 A, etc so A wins election for the second vacancy.
But we observe there is no need to come back tomorrow, as the same result can be obtained by simply recounting the original ballots with D ignored.
So maybe no pathology? Hmmm...
http://www.livability.org.uk/news/language-journalists/
This is surely ridiculous, no?
"UKIP - who are they any more?"
UKIP will have plenty of space as long as the government fails to address illegal immigration, only partially addresses non-EU legal migration, continues to trample over British liberties and supports things like the Met's recruitment strategy (preferring criminal non-white Londoners over law-abiding whites from the Home Counties).
As with your muddle-headed attempt to define liberalism the other night, your serial lack of humanity defines every post you write.
One thing is certain there is only one way to withdraw from the EU and that is in a controlled measured and sensible manner, providing a lengthy transitional period (my guess five years) to allow those tied up with the EU to uncouple in a rational manner with considerable reassuring PR to ensure that the horses do not get spooked. All knee-jerk reactionary posturing will do is make life unpleasant for everybody and potentially wreck our economy and those of the rest of the EU.
PS There is no facility within the Lisbon Treaty to expel a nation. They really don't want countries to leave......!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2819176/Labour-level-support-Gordon-Brown-30-party-s-supporters-want-CAMERON-PM.html
"At the same time, the SNP’s share in Scotland has more than doubled, mostly at the expense of Labour."
Previous July 14th poll;
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/ANP-140714-Full-data-tables.pdf
A single pensioner gets about £8k to live on from state pension + pension credit.
So why on earth does someone earning £25k per year with a child get handed child tax credit on top of their child benefit?
The taxpayer is treating people with children like royalty in comparison with everyone else and it is grossly unfair.
Child Tax Credit should be slashed massively - it should be abolished for anyone with an income above about £15k.
Of course we are told that the cuts disproportionately affect people with children. But that is because people with children are being treated so unbelievably generously in the first place.
An issue with disability is that it applies so broadly that people quite able to work in most ways (deaf in one ear, or missing their smallest two fingers on one hand) might fall under its umbrella, but so do the most severely affected people, such as your brother.
Mr. Carnyx, it'd be interesting to know if general frailty falls under the umbrella of disability, or dementia.
Edited extra bit: typo. And then a typo in this correction.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/disability-facts-and-figures/disability-facts-and-figures
On the other hand, I am personally aware of quite a few instances of outright abuse (and more than one case where the badge is routinely used by the spouse of the invalid even when the invalid is not in the car). I know that I should probably make some form of reports.
But look at the numbers - they are staggering:
Cost - £23 billion
Number of claimants - 4.1 million
So the AVERAGE person claiming child tax credits is receiving ....... wait for it ...... £5,600.
And that is JUST their Child Tax credit.
They will also get Child Benefit, and most likely Working Tax credit as well.
It's breathtaking.
How different from STV?
The golden generation have had all the money, are generally wealthier than hard working people in poorly paid jobs, and still whinge at their lot in life.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/321594/disability-prevalence.pdf
That said, I don't see how a single example is evidence that one in five people in this country are disabled. Ad hominem attacks and appeals to sentimentality do not refute logic, I'm afraid.
I'm afraid I'm not particularly bothered by silly accusations from someone as smug and sanctimonious as yourself.
Exit polls will start coming in at about 6 eastern, polls close in most east coast states at either 7 or 8.
New Hampshire and North Carolina will give an early indication of how it's going
This case really is tragic.
I hope the parents and school take responsibility for how this kid got to this point. If your kid has to pretend that everything is fine on the surface, when they're falling apart underneath, then you're doing something seriously wrong.
RIP Ann Maguire.
For someone who retired at 54 to ponce off the taxpayer you really haven't got a fucking clue.
Loved voting though - the technology is so cool
I'll agree with you here, moreover I know of plenty of people who DO work who could probably claim some version of the crazily expanded remit of "disability"... depression, bad back, obesity etc You need to reread this several times though Mr Socrates - this is classic "I'm not a racist but" material. "Ad hominem attacks... smug and sanctimonious as yourself"
NB. On the polls list each poll obviously doesn't need to be to two decimal places - that change is sensible - it's just that it's messed up the averages calculation!
People drawing pensions they paid for aren't the problem; it's people drawing pensions that they didn't pay for that are. Pension credit and public sector workers.
You really think it's fair that someone working, with two children, earning say £20k, should get handed £5,600 tax credits plus £1,700 child benefit on top of their salary (on which they will have paid tax / NI of about £3k). So:
Gross salary = £20k
Net to live on = £24k - ie 20 - 3 + 5.6 + 1.7
And the pensioner is living on £8k!
It is obscene.
Hard to estimate the tax I have paid over the years but still paying in thousands a month, so I am helping you in paying those aircraft carriers.
Next year I will get a bus pass , but as I never use a bus its not much of a benefit.
This could cost Orman the race. Robocalls in Kansas with Biden's voice have already started.
http://time.com/3556724/biden-kansas-independent-will-be-with-us/
Your scenario of "not frightening the horses" sounds more like what Nick Clegg would say. Are you sure you're a kipper?
I always curse Ross Perot though my wife probably doesn't. I was in Maine on our honeymoon on election night in 1992 and expected a great election night in front of the box. Instead by the time we'd switched on TV after booking into our motel and eaten something, all the networks had already declared for Clinton and were screening something else - what an anticlimax. That's what exit polls and a very clear result bring.
My brother is officially registered as disabled in the UK for missing the two smallest fingers on his left hand. The equivalent two fingers to those of Boris Yeltsin who lost his whilst playing with a live hand grenade, as it happens, but I digress.
It doesn't make the slightest difference to his life apart from background frustration at no longer being able to play the saxophone. But it's useful when applying for jobs that have quotas to fill.
Disability is indeed a very broad spectrum. Not all of the Disabled are disabled.
The tax credit system is quite frankly obscene. Brown increased the bill by 116% in 7 years.
Some housing benefit payments and the ludicrous long reach of "disability" are also big problems, as are all the freebies that resulted from the proposed 73p pension rise of Oct 1999.
It's quite astonishing just how many problems go back to the earliest days of New Labour and Brown's decision making.
Just shouting "It's not fair" or "I demand more" doesn't mean you should get it.
As an MP I had serious doubts about a handful of claimants and there was a largish group who were most fairly described as "getting by with difficulty", for whom I felt that moderate assistance was about right. There were also a fair number of cases of people who clearly needed help badly and had got tangled up in the system because they'd filled in the application wrongly or didn't know where to go, etc. - this is the classic case where the CAB or MP can sort something out and make a big difference for an individual. (Yes, I know the argument that MPs shouldn't need to - that's correct, but sometimes people just don't know where else to turn, and MPs tend to be quite effective problem-solvers in dealing with constituents.)
Here it starts lotech - the first desk hands you a clipboard and pencil and you have to fill out a form saying who you are and that you will not vote again today anywhere else. You hand that back with your drivers license (for non-drivers who need photoID you get an 'invalid' drivers license) and the clerk checks it then hands it back to you
you follow the arrows taped to the carpet to the next desk where the clerk scans the back of your drivers license and your name and address appears on the tablet in front of her from the voters roll.
More arrows, then at the next station what looks like a chip and pin credit card is loaded wih the ballot and handed to you.
More arrows and now I'm waiting for a voting machine, which is esentially a touch screen pc. Get to the machine, load the card and it automatically brings up the instruction page. Hit next and the first page of candidates pops up. Touch a box next to the candidates you want, then hit next and screen 2 turns up.
After the candiddate screens are done, the initiatives page turns up. There were only 2 this time.
After that the summary page turns up showing all your votes. When you're sure you hit CAST and it writes your vote to the card and ejects it.
You hand the card to the nice lady, who hands you a circular sticker with a picture of a peach and the slogan "I'm a Georgia voter."
Then you're done.
All governments do it, though this current crew's attempts are laughable.
"DWP orders man to work without pay for company that let him go"
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/nov/03/dwp-benefits-electrician-work-placement-labour
"...what are you going to do about Angela Merkel, then? The Europeans are making you look a bit of a prat, you know. .... I’ve played Carry On characters who handled foreigners with more poise than you’ve been demonstrating, sir."
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/11/carry-on-prime-minister-david-cameron-meets-veterans-starlets/
I just put the figures forward so people can see what they are.
In my view, the majority of people in this country would not consider the magnitude of Child Tax credit payments to be fair.
Personally i'm very pessimistic about their chances. I think they'll lose Louisiana, Arkansas, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, New Hampshire, Alaska, Colorado. Maybe just maybe hang on in North Carolina
http://twitter.com/TSBible/status/529706873755541505/photo/1
Golly!
I would be very surprised if the Democrats win Iowa. If Orman is the deciding vote, then I think he'll go with the Democrats, because they would tolerate ideological deviancy more than the GOP, but if the Republicans win anyway, it would make sense for him to go with them, to get committee appointments.
DLA - being replaced by PIP - is not just for people "really unable to work without help, and [who] get DLA merely to live adequately" as it is not a means tested benefit and you get it even if you work. It is designed to help with the additional costs of daily living or mobility, and is paid at a higher and lower level. Someone in a wheelchair, for example, would no doubt get the higher level of PIP mobility but as long as they could get to work may be perfectly able to do a desk job, assuming that is their only disability. Help with the costs of getting to work is provided through Access to Work as DLA/PIP are supposed to help with daily life, not the costs of employment.
Really, I would have expected an aspirant MP to be a bit more up to speed on this sort of thing.
The question I ponder is why more and more people are claiming ill health benefits despite the fact that medical science is advancing all the time. Later retirement ages, and maybe the fact we are successful in keeping more people alive, albeit with impaired lives, may be two of the reasons.
My home state I think might go Republican tonight. I have yet to see a Michelle Nunn sign anywhere.
You are suggesting that the UK doesn't just default on an unjustifiable additional bill which on its own would be no big issue, what you are suggesting is that the UK breach the Lisbon Treaty in a fundamental way and in a way that has financial implications for both the UK and the EU. The EU could not let that slide. They would have to respond. As I said the likely response would have to be for the EU either to threaten to suspend us or actually suspend us and that act would in my view frighten the horses. No country has previously been suspended and therefore the practical implications of what suspension might mean are unclear. Does it mean that the UK no longer has access to the single market? Does it mean that free movement of labour is suspended. Does it mean the subsidies from the EU to UK cease immediately? Do you know? That you are talking of that suspension lasting for more than a year means that the UK would be in limbo for the whole of that period. Such escalations cannot be contemplated in such a superficial and complacent way as you are doing. The financial markets would have a fit
Oh and by the way whatever happens we would still legally be required to cough up the money and if we didn't the reputational damage would certainly not help our borrowing costs. Of course after such events the referendum would likely be a foregone conclusion but the subsequent withdrawal negotiations would be far more difficult as a result and likely lead to a far less satisfactory outcome.
I want the UK to leave the EU and I want it to leave under the best terms possible. That will not be achieved by pointless exaggerated gesture politics that will only irritate those in Brussels andmake them even less co-operative than they currently are.