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  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    A sure case of Madness under Obama:

    http://www.defensenews.com/article/20141103/DEFREG02/311030008?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

    No wonder the President is despised by the US military.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2014
    Yay, some figures I produced the other day have been retweeted by Labour MP Gemma Doyle:

    https://twitter.com/GemmaWDMP
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300

    On topic.

    The problem with the Bristol mayor(*) is that he has too much power over too small an area, he can't make strategic decisions over transport but has personal responsibility for everything from bin collection to child protection.

    This idea actually looks quite good, not least because the local councils have a strong record of cooperation over issues like transport (tram) etc.

    * It also doesn't help that he's an egomaniac.

    Has be blocked you on twitter or sworn at you?

    Revised rules from June make it more difficult for the public & councillors to ask questions on the record particularly on issues with residents' parking.
  • Socrates said:



    Freedom, Fraternity, Federation!

    If I had my way, and I freely confess it would have depended on an extensive amount of Alternate History along the way (particularly in regard to the USA and Ireland!), my Commonwealth of English-speaking Nations and Peoples would consist of:

    * All current Commonwealth members, including external territories where relevant
    * Fiji (currently suspended, of course)
    * The ex-members: Ireland, Zimbabwe and the Gambia
    * Hong Kong (despite the transfer, still using English in an official capacity)

    Plus: The nine other nations with English as a de facto or de jure official language:

    * USA! USA! USA!, and its external territories
    * Palau (former US mandate)
    * Micronesia (former US Mandate)
    * Marshall Islands (former US Mandate)
    * The Philippines
    * Liberia
    * Sudan
    * South Sudan
    * Eritrea

    Plus (again!):
    * The whole of the EU (those 24 countries not already mentioned above), by virtue of it being a political union, with English an official language (sneaky, I know!). Plus their current external territories, just for a bit of fun (this would apply to France, Denmark, Spain, Portugal and the Netherlands)

    If you are happy to change history, you could always have a completely different set of places settled by the English: Argentina, Brazil, Taiwain etc.
    Nah, I'm just going for those places where English is either predominant or official the present time!

    I would be Minister-Emperor. TSE would be my Darth Vader/Mandelson-style "enforcer" :)

    Morris Dancer would be Governor of Yorkshire
    Mike Smithson would be Governor Mayor of Bedfordshire
    Corporeal would be Governor of Wales
    Alan Brooke would be Governor of Northern Ireland
    Neil would be Governor of Southern Ireland
    Tim B would be Governor of Georgia
    Sean T would be Governor of Cornwall
    Isam would Governor of Essex
    John O would be Governor of Surrey
    Plato would be Governess of Sussex
    Malcolm G would be Governor of Scotland

    um, you get the picture!
    Morris Dancer doesn't believe in 'shitty little regions'. I therefore humbly submit my application in his absence, your imp maj.
  • Mr. Herdson, I'll be King of York, ally with our Northumbrian brethren and conquer the rest of you!
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    @JonnyJimmy
    Thanks for the data on Earthenware, but I must say that it doesn't in anyway detract from what she wrote on the Tories and Labour being one and the same thing.

    I didn't think it would make you suddenly disagree with the comment you linked to, but thought you might prefer not to promote the views of a Russell Brand type in UKiP's ranks.
    My dear boy, Russel Brand hates UKIP:

    Russell Brand Blasts BBC For 'Validating Ukip's Ideas ...
    www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/.../russell-brand-blasts-the-bbc-over-clacton-...
    Oct 10, 2014 - Russell Brand has slammed the BBC for “validating the ridiculous ideas” of Ukip, and “collaborating” in building a narrative in which Britain's ...
    So you're putting your fingers in your ears and singing "Russell Brand hates UKIP"?

    Is this in preparation for quoting moonlanding-truthers and other conspiracy theory nut jobs in their support for UKIP?
  • It's great reading pb threads some times.... only in moderation.

    You can see a big section of the community electronically shaking their head and going tut tut for hours on end.

    Love it! I'm joing in myself.....
  • Being attacked by Russell Brand on politics is like being told you're not cool by Ed Miliband.
  • A few more of the Scottish constituency prices are back up at Ladbrokes (eg the Aberdeen, Dundee and the Edinburgh seats). We continue to await quite a few, however.

    I'll try to have a post up on the SNP tomorrow.
  • JamesMJamesM Posts: 221
    I'll take Lancashire...sorry serve the people of Lancashire. Capital city in Burnley. I would be proud to welcome Cumbria in to my district also.
  • antifrank said:

    A few more of the Scottish constituency prices are back up at Ladbrokes (eg the Aberdeen, Dundee and the Edinburgh seats). We continue to await quite a few, however.

    I'll try to have a post up on the SNP tomorrow.

    Con gain Edinburgh SW at 12/1.

    I'm on

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/edinburgh-south-west/winning-party

    I officially declare the Scottish Tory Surge has now begun.
  • A very wise post from David Herdson. I am unsure where this idea came from that we must have referenda on local government reform. The Newcastle example is also excellent - I feel that area should also install a similar metropolitan mayor across its councils.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:



    Freedom, Fraternity, Federation!

    If I had my way, and I freely confess it would have depended on an extensive amount of Alternate History along the way (particularly in regard to the USA and Ireland!), my Commonwealth of English-speaking Nations and Peoples would consist of:

    * All current Commonwealth members, including external territories where relevant
    * Fiji (currently suspended, of course)
    * The ex-members: Ireland, Zimbabwe and the Gambia
    * Hong Kong (despite the transfer, still using English in an official capacity)

    Plus: The nine other nations with English as a de facto or de jure official language:

    * USA! USA! USA!, and its external territories
    * Palau (former US mandate)
    * Micronesia (former US Mandate)
    * Marshall Islands (former US Mandate)
    * The Philippines
    * Liberia
    * Sudan
    * South Sudan
    * Eritrea

    Plus (again!):
    * The whole of the EU (those 24 countries not already mentioned above), by virtue of it being a political union, with English an official language (sneaky, I know!). Plus their current external territories, just for a bit of fun (this would apply to France, Denmark, Spain, Portugal and the Netherlands)

    If you are happy to change history, you could always have a completely different set of places settled by the English: Argentina, Brazil, Taiwain etc.
    Nah, I'm just going for those places where English is either predominant or official the present time!

    I would be Minister-Emperor. TSE would be my Darth Vader/Mandelson-style "enforcer" :)

    Morris Dancer would be Governor of Yorkshire
    Mike Smithson would be Governor Mayor of Bedfordshire
    Corporeal would be Governor of Wales
    Alan Brooke would be Governor of Northern Ireland
    Neil would be Governor of Southern Ireland
    Tim B would be Governor of Georgia
    Sean T would be Governor of Cornwall
    Isam would Governor of Essex
    John O would be Governor of Surrey
    Plato would be Governess of Sussex
    Malcolm G would be Governor of Scotland

    um, you get the picture!
    So TSE will betray you and throw you down to a fiery death at your moment of triumph?
  • Regarding 9/11 theories, my gast was rather flabbered when, during my brief stay in Colorado in 2011, there was actually a debate one Sunday afternoon at University of Colorado, Boulder regarding whether or not the Twin Towers were destroyed through a controlled demolition. I decided to attend through curiosity alone, and I was surprised how civilised the debate was. There were no hecklers, no police presence, no Uni security vetting attendees. Everything went smoothly.

    http://www.ae911truth.org/news/459-uc-boulder-debate.html

    Fascinating, Sunil.

    Was it followed by one about whether the Earth might be flat?
  • Socrates said:

    Socrates said:



    Freedom, Fraternity, Federation!

    If I had my way, and I freely confess it would have depended on an extensive amount of Alternate History along the way (particularly in regard to the USA and Ireland!), my Commonwealth of English-speaking Nations and Peoples would consist of:

    * All current Commonwealth members, including external territories where relevant
    * Fiji (currently suspended, of course)
    * The ex-members: Ireland, Zimbabwe and the Gambia
    * Hong Kong (despite the transfer, still using English in an official capacity)

    Plus: The nine other nations with English as a de facto or de jure official language:

    * USA! USA! USA!, and its external territories
    * Palau (former US mandate)
    * Micronesia (former US Mandate)
    * Marshall Islands (former US Mandate)
    * The Philippines
    * Liberia
    * Sudan
    * South Sudan
    * Eritrea

    Plus (again!):
    * The whole of the EU (those 24 countries not already mentioned above), by virtue of it being a political union, with English an official language (sneaky, I know!). Plus their current external territories, just for a bit of fun (this would apply to France, Denmark, Spain, Portugal and the Netherlands)

    If you are happy to change history, you could always have a completely different set of places settled by the English: Argentina, Brazil, Taiwain etc.
    Nah, I'm just going for those places where English is either predominant or official the present time!

    I would be Minister-Emperor. TSE would be my Darth Vader/Mandelson-style "enforcer" :)

    Morris Dancer would be Governor of Yorkshire
    Mike Smithson would be Governor Mayor of Bedfordshire
    Corporeal would be Governor of Wales
    Alan Brooke would be Governor of Northern Ireland
    Neil would be Governor of Southern Ireland
    Tim B would be Governor of Georgia
    Sean T would be Governor of Cornwall
    Isam would Governor of Essex
    John O would be Governor of Surrey
    Plato would be Governess of Sussex
    Malcolm G would be Governor of Scotland

    um, you get the picture!
    So TSE will betray you and throw you down to a fiery death at your moment of triumph?
    No.

    Because Emperor Palpatine didn't die on the Second Death Star.

    He knew Darth Vader would betray him, so he made a clone of himself and used that.

    I may or may not have ruined Episodes VII to IX for some.
  • antifrank said:

    A few more of the Scottish constituency prices are back up at Ladbrokes (eg the Aberdeen, Dundee and the Edinburgh seats). We continue to await quite a few, however.

    I'll try to have a post up on the SNP tomorrow.

    Con gain Edinburgh SW at 12/1.

    I'm on

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/edinburgh-south-west/winning-party

    I officially declare the Scottish Tory Surge has now begun.
    shadsy has a very hard job with these seats in particular. I'm glad I don't have his job for that task.

    I would have priced a couple of constituencies differently, but I need to wait until I'm home to place bets accordingly.

  • AndyJS said:

    I find it astonishing that the 16 year old who has just been jailed for life with a 20 year recommendation for the murder of schoolteacher Ann Maguire hasn't been named:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-29879865

    He's been named just now

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/nov/03/ann-maguire-killer-named-will-cornick-judge-lifts-reporting-restrictions
  • Oooh

    Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft

    In the Ashcroft National Poll released at 4pm one party records it's lowest vote share since I started the ANP
  • Mr. Herdson, I'll be King of York, ally with our Northumbrian brethren and conquer the rest of you!

    An ancestor of mine was Constable of the Tower, so if the good Emperor Sunil will do the necessary, I will be grateful. And Master of the Royal Mint!! Nice work if you can get it!
  • Greater Manchester already has the higher tier of local government. The statutory Greater Manchester Combined Authority exists and is just waiting for a high profile leader. Further, although the City of Manchester rejected an elected mayor, the City of Salford accepted one. So which previous vote should carry most weight or create a precedent? This is a different proposal from what happened two years ago. In this proposal, one can make a case either for a referendum or not - looking backwards is irrelevant.
  • antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    A few more of the Scottish constituency prices are back up at Ladbrokes (eg the Aberdeen, Dundee and the Edinburgh seats). We continue to await quite a few, however.

    I'll try to have a post up on the SNP tomorrow.

    Con gain Edinburgh SW at 12/1.

    I'm on

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/edinburgh-south-west/winning-party

    I officially declare the Scottish Tory Surge has now begun.
    shadsy has a very hard job with these seats in particular. I'm glad I don't have his job for that task.

    I would have priced a couple of constituencies differently, but I need to wait until I'm home to place bets accordingly.

    Whilst I was in Scotland last week, I heard stuff that the Nats might fight under a "Nat Alliance" banner.

    One of the consequences of that might be Unionists back whomever is best placed to defeat the Nats.

    I feel sorry for Shadsy on this, it makes pricing Scotland and the election as a whole a nightmare.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Oooh

    Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft

    In the Ashcroft National Poll released at 4pm one party records it's lowest vote share since I started the ANP

    £1 on Con please.
  • antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    A few more of the Scottish constituency prices are back up at Ladbrokes (eg the Aberdeen, Dundee and the Edinburgh seats). We continue to await quite a few, however.

    I'll try to have a post up on the SNP tomorrow.

    Con gain Edinburgh SW at 12/1.

    I'm on

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/edinburgh-south-west/winning-party

    I officially declare the Scottish Tory Surge has now begun.
    shadsy has a very hard job with these seats in particular. I'm glad I don't have his job for that task.

    I would have priced a couple of constituencies differently, but I need to wait until I'm home to place bets accordingly.

    He'd be doing well to break even on the individual constituencies. They're done pretty much for PR and to bring punters in to his more lucrative markets.

    Like most of the Majors, Lads did pretty well on the Scottish Referendum - but that was largely because they took a definite view and stuck with it. Must have been pretty scary at times.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    TGOHF said:

    Oooh

    Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft

    In the Ashcroft National Poll released at 4pm one party records it's lowest vote share since I started the ANP

    £1 on Con please.
    £1 on Labour to match, void if other - want to take that :) ? (Evens match bet)

    It's either Labour or the Lib Dems have hit new lows, but I rather suspect Labour.
  • Welcome FeatherPlucker! Shouldn't you be PheasantPlucker?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Oooh

    Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft

    In the Ashcroft National Poll released at 4pm one party records it's lowest vote share since I started the ANP

    £1 on Con please.
    £1 on Labour to match, void if other - want to take that :) ? (Evens match bet)

    It's either Labour or the Lib Dems have hit new lows, but I rather suspect Labour.
    Could be any one of 6 to be honest - total turkey shoot :)

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Oooh

    Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft

    In the Ashcroft National Poll released at 4pm one party records it's lowest vote share since I started the ANP

    £1 on Con please.
    £1 on Labour to match, void if other - want to take that :) ? (Evens match bet)

    It's either Labour or the Lib Dems have hit new lows, but I rather suspect Labour.
    PS Yes - we can continue double or quitsing until its like 3 figures or something :)
  • TGOHF said:

    Oooh

    Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft

    In the Ashcroft National Poll released at 4pm one party records it's lowest vote share since I started the ANP

    £1 on Con please.
    Well the lowest share with Ashcroft for the four major parties are as follows

    Con 25, Lab 30, LD 6, UKIP 14

    The Poll last week was Con 31, Lab 31, LD 7, UKIP 18

    So if the Tories break their record, they need to fall 7% in a week, for Lab it is 2%, for the Lib Dems 2% and UKIP it is 5

    So I reckon it is either Lab or the LDs
  • One interesting consequence of the Manchester Mayoralty is that Manchester statistically will become Second City, which will help it promote itself. Population: 2.7m. (City of) Birmingham population: 1.1m
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Oooh

    Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft

    In the Ashcroft National Poll released at 4pm one party records it's lowest vote share since I started the ANP

    £1 on Con please.
    £1 on Labour to match, void if other - want to take that :) ? (Evens match bet)

    It's either Labour or the Lib Dems have hit new lows, but I rather suspect Labour.
    PS Yes - we can continue double or quitsing until its like 3 figures or something :)
    Thats a fair deal ^_~
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2014

    TGOHF said:

    Oooh

    Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft

    In the Ashcroft National Poll released at 4pm one party records it's lowest vote share since I started the ANP

    £1 on Con please.
    Well the lowest share with Ashcroft for the four major parties are as follows

    Con 25, Lab 30, LD 6, UKIP 14

    The Poll last week was Con 31, Lab 31, LD 7, UKIP 18

    So if the Tories break their record, they need to fall 7% in a week, for Lab it is 2%, for the Lib Dems 2% and UKIP it is 5

    So I reckon it is either Lab or the LDs
    I agree, Labour or LD's.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Lib Dems on 5?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    chestnut said:

    Lib Dems on 5?

    Labour 29 is my finger in the air guess.
  • Socrates said:



    Freedom, Fraternity, Federation!

    If I had my way, and I freely confess it would have depended on an extensive amount of Alternate History along the way (particularly in regard to the USA and Ireland!), my Commonwealth of English-speaking Nations and Peoples would consist of:

    * All current Commonwealth members, including external territories where relevant
    * Fiji (currently suspended, of course)
    * The ex-members: Ireland, Zimbabwe and the Gambia
    * Hong Kong (despite the transfer, still using English in an official capacity)

    Plus: The nine other nations with English as a de facto or de jure official language:

    * USA! USA! USA!, and its external territories
    * Palau (former US mandate)
    * Micronesia (former US Mandate)
    * Marshall Islands (former US Mandate)
    * The Philippines
    * Liberia
    * Sudan
    * South Sudan
    * Eritrea

    Plus (again!):
    * The whole of the EU (those 24 countries not already mentioned above), by virtue of it being a political union, with English an official language (sneaky, I know!). Plus their current external territories, just for a bit of fun (this would apply to France, Denmark, Spain, Portugal and the Netherlands)

    If you are happy to change history, you could always have a completely different set of places settled by the English: Argentina, Brazil, Taiwain etc.
    Nah, I'm just going for those places where English is either predominant or official the present time!

    I would be Minister-Emperor. TSE would be my Darth Vader/Mandelson-style "enforcer" :)

    Morris Dancer would be Governor of Yorkshire
    Mike Smithson would be Governor Mayor of Bedfordshire
    Corporeal would be Governor of Wales
    Alan Brooke would be Governor of Northern Ireland
    Neil would be Governor of Southern Ireland
    Tim B would be Governor of Georgia
    Sean T would be Governor of Cornwall
    Isam would Governor of Essex
    John O would be Governor of Surrey
    Plato would be Governess of Sussex
    Malcolm G would be Governor of Scotland

    um, you get the picture!
    Morris Dancer doesn't believe in 'shitty little regions'. I therefore humbly submit my application in his absence, your imp maj.
    Application accepted :)
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Just to remind everyone, Lord Ashcroft's poll is quite bouncy from week to week, I prefer to use a 2 week average of his polls.
  • I'm guessing the poll will be very bad for the blues.
  • AndyJS said:

    I find it astonishing that the 16 year old who has just been jailed for life with a 20 year recommendation for the murder of schoolteacher Ann Maguire hasn't been named:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-29879865

    He's been named just now

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/nov/03/ann-maguire-killer-named-will-cornick-judge-lifts-reporting-restrictions
    Out of interest, why is it important to know the name?

    He's A Psycho. Enuf, innit?

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @LordAshcroft: Ashcroft National Poll, 31 Oct-2 Nov: CON 30%, LAB 29%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Cleggasm 2 !!!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2014
    I'm wondering whether Shadsy has to attempt to match up the individial constituency markets with the overall betting situation for overall majority, most seats, etc.
  • AndyJS said:

    I find it astonishing that the 16 year old who has just been jailed for life with a 20 year recommendation for the murder of schoolteacher Ann Maguire hasn't been named:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-29879865

    He's been named just now

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/nov/03/ann-maguire-killer-named-will-cornick-judge-lifts-reporting-restrictions
    Out of interest, why is it important to know the name?

    He's A Psycho. Enuf, innit?

    I've always assumed it was morbid interest.

    As someone who has worked in Leeds and has a lot of friends in Leeds and the surrounding areas, the name has been known for quite some time on social media.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    I'm guessing the poll will be very bad for the blues.

    Why would it be, the underlying trend is irresistibly against Labour right now as Gadfly's moving average shows.

    I'm putting my neck on the block and saying it is Labour 29.
  • Ashcroft National Poll, 31 Oct-2 Nov: CON 30%, LAB 29%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%.

    2/5 landed
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2014
    Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 14s 15 seconds ago
    Ashcroft National Poll, 31 Oct-2 Nov: CON 30%, LAB 29%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm

    Electoral Fog.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNSLaYJboPE
  • Mr. Herdson, I'll be King of York, ally with our Northumbrian brethren and conquer the rest of you!

    An ancestor of mine was Constable of the Tower, so if the good Emperor Sunil will do the necessary, I will be grateful. And Master of the Royal Mint!! Nice work if you can get it!
    Hmmm... interesting. You're hired :)
  • Crossover/Labour slump to their lowest ever figure with Lord Ashcroft.


    Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 26s 26 seconds ago


    Ashcroft National Poll, 31 Oct-2 Nov: CON 30%, LAB 29%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm.
  • Super soaraway sandalistas.
  • That leaves 9% for the SNP and Plaid. Sound right?
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    AndyJS said:

    I find it astonishing that the 16 year old who has just been jailed for life with a 20 year recommendation for the murder of schoolteacher Ann Maguire hasn't been named:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-29879865

    He's been named just now

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/nov/03/ann-maguire-killer-named-will-cornick-judge-lifts-reporting-restrictions
    Out of interest, why is it important to know the name?

    He's A Psycho. Enuf, innit?

    More important to know he's an emo, and recognise the danger of emos everywhere
  • TGOHF said:

    Oooh

    Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft

    In the Ashcroft National Poll released at 4pm one party records it's lowest vote share since I started the ANP

    £1 on Con please.
    Well the lowest share with Ashcroft for the four major parties are as follows

    Con 25, Lab 30, LD 6, UKIP 14

    The Poll last week was Con 31, Lab 31, LD 7, UKIP 18

    So if the Tories break their record, they need to fall 7% in a week, for Lab it is 2%, for the Lib Dems 2% and UKIP it is 5

    So I reckon it is either Lab or the LDs
    I agree. Ashcroft's polls do tend to bounce around a bit and a 7% drop wouldn't be out of the question but I don't think it's likely starting where it is (i.e. at the low end of where the Tories have been polling). I also don't see any good reason why the Tories should suddenly drop that far. Likewise UKIP. Ashcroft's house effects seem to give UKIP higher scores than most pollsters and most of their recent news has been relatively positive.

    So Labour or the Lib Dems then.

    If it is the Lib Dems, it'll be their lowest score with *any* pollster since about 1990; if it's Labour, I think it'd be their lowest with anyone this parliament (I can't remember a score in the twenties), so whoever it is (including Con), it'll be historic.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Ed falling below Gordon's final score and it's not even December.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Boom.
  • Crossover/Labour slump to their lowest ever figure with @LordAshcroft

    Con 30 (-1) Lab 29 (-2) LD 10 (+3) UKIP 16 (-2) Greens 6 (+1)
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    AndyJS said:

    I find it astonishing that the 16 year old who has just been jailed for life with a 20 year recommendation for the murder of schoolteacher Ann Maguire hasn't been named:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-29879865

    He's been named just now

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/nov/03/ann-maguire-killer-named-will-cornick-judge-lifts-reporting-restrictions
    Out of interest, why is it important to know the name?

    He's A Psycho. Enuf, innit?

    I've always assumed it was morbid interest.

    As someone who has worked in Leeds and has a lot of friends in Leeds and the surrounding areas, the name has been known for quite some time on social media.
    Interesting to see how often and how early he was identified as the killer..
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    @JonnyJimmy
    Thanks for the data on Earthenware, but I must say that it doesn't in anyway detract from what she wrote on the Tories and Labour being one and the same thing.

    I didn't think it would make you suddenly disagree with the comment you linked to, but thought you might prefer not to promote the views of a Russell Brand type in UKiP's ranks.
    My dear boy, Russel Brand hates UKIP:

    Russell Brand Blasts BBC For 'Validating Ukip's Ideas ...
    www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/.../russell-brand-blasts-the-bbc-over-clacton-...
    Oct 10, 2014 - Russell Brand has slammed the BBC for “validating the ridiculous ideas” of Ukip, and “collaborating” in building a narrative in which Britain's ...
    So you're putting your fingers in your ears and singing "Russell Brand hates UKIP"?

    Is this in preparation for quoting moonlanding-truthers and other conspiracy theory nut jobs in their support for UKIP?
    I'm beginning to find your obsession about "truthers" quite, well, obsessional.
    Calm down, bang your head against a wall 3 times, make a wish and then drink some vodka. You may then find yourself sane again. Good Luck!
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Con 30 Lab 29
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Crossover/Labour slump to their lowest ever figure with @LordAshcroft

    Con 30 (-1) Lab 29 (-2) LD 10 (+3) UKIP 16 (-2) Greens 6 (+1)

    There is a rising chance that no party will score more than 30% in the next election.
  • AndyJS said:

    I find it astonishing that the 16 year old who has just been jailed for life with a 20 year recommendation for the murder of schoolteacher Ann Maguire hasn't been named:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-29879865

    He's been named just now

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/nov/03/ann-maguire-killer-named-will-cornick-judge-lifts-reporting-restrictions
    Out of interest, why is it important to know the name?

    He's A Psycho. Enuf, innit?

    I've always assumed it was morbid interest.

    As someone who has worked in Leeds and has a lot of friends in Leeds and the surrounding areas, the name has been known for quite some time on social media.
    Interesting to see how often and how early he was identified as the killer..
    The day after or so.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    The amount of "I'll predict a terrible score for my side even though I know its probably not going to be the case and then I can laugh at the other side anyway even though its more than likely to be them"-ery going on in this thread was quite astounding !

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Interesting details from LA

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/11/lord-ashcroft-labour-drop-behind-in-my-weekly-poll.html

    "Less than a quarter (24 per cent, down four points) said they would rather see Miliband as PM, including just one in five swing voters and only 13 per cent of UKIP supporters – though a clear majority of these said they saw Cameron as the better of two unsatisfactory alternatives."
  • Mr. Speedy, maybe. I wonder whether tribal loyalty and/or trying to kick the 'other side' will still come to the fore and we'll get more blue/red votes than anticipated.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    @JonnyJimmy
    Thanks for the data on Earthenware, but I must say that it doesn't in anyway detract from what she wrote on the Tories and Labour being one and the same thing.

    I didn't think it would make you suddenly disagree with the comment you linked to, but thought you might prefer not to promote the views of a Russell Brand type in UKiP's ranks.
    My dear boy, Russel Brand hates UKIP:

    Russell Brand Blasts BBC For 'Validating Ukip's Ideas ...
    www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/.../russell-brand-blasts-the-bbc-over-clacton-...
    Oct 10, 2014 - Russell Brand has slammed the BBC for “validating the ridiculous ideas” of Ukip, and “collaborating” in building a narrative in which Britain's ...
    So you're putting your fingers in your ears and singing "Russell Brand hates UKIP"?

    Is this in preparation for quoting moonlanding-truthers and other conspiracy theory nut jobs in their support for UKIP?
    I'm beginning to find your obsession about "truthers" quite, well, obsessional.
    Calm down, bang your head against a wall 3 times, make a wish and then drink some vodka. You may then find yourself sane again. Good Luck!
    I'm not obsessed by them at all, I was trying to help stop you from promoting one of them. If you're happy to do so, be my guest.
  • Socrates said:

    Socrates said:



    Freedom, Fraternity, Federation!

    If I had my way, and I freely confess it would have depended on an extensive amount of Alternate History along the way (particularly in regard to the USA and Ireland!), my Commonwealth of English-speaking Nations and Peoples would consist of:

    * All current Commonwealth members, including external territories where relevant
    * Fiji (currently suspended, of course)
    * The ex-members: Ireland, Zimbabwe and the Gambia
    * Hong Kong (despite the transfer, still using English in an official capacity)

    Plus: The nine other nations with English as a de facto or de jure official language:

    * USA! USA! USA!, and its external territories
    * Palau (former US mandate)
    * Micronesia (former US Mandate)
    * Marshall Islands (former US Mandate)
    * The Philippines
    * Liberia
    * Sudan
    * South Sudan
    * Eritrea

    Plus (again!):
    * The whole of the EU (those 24 countries not already mentioned above), by virtue of it being a political union, with English an official language (sneaky, I know!). Plus their current external territories, just for a bit of fun (this would apply to France, Denmark, Spain, Portugal and the Netherlands)

    If you are happy to change history, you could always have a completely different set of places settled by the English: Argentina, Brazil, Taiwain etc.
    Nah, I'm just going for those places where English is either predominant or official the present time!

    I would be Minister-Emperor. TSE would be my Darth Vader/Mandelson-style "enforcer" :)

    Morris Dancer would be Governor of Yorkshire
    Mike Smithson would be Governor Mayor of Bedfordshire
    Corporeal would be Governor of Wales
    Alan Brooke would be Governor of Northern Ireland
    Neil would be Governor of Southern Ireland
    Tim B would be Governor of Georgia
    Sean T would be Governor of Cornwall
    Isam would Governor of Essex
    John O would be Governor of Surrey
    Plato would be Governess of Sussex
    Malcolm G would be Governor of Scotland

    um, you get the picture!
    So TSE will betray you and throw you down to a fiery death at your moment of triumph?
    As TSE mentioned, Palpatine cloned himself to fight another day (and yes, TSE, I knew about the Emperor clones!).

    Actually as I'm not married there will be an eventual succession crisis in the Commonwealth. TSE would lead one faction, let's call them the Federalists, who want to continue the Constitutional nature of the Commonwealth.

    One faction would be the Imperialists, who want to abolish the Imperial Senate and become a unitary state. Let's assume Sean T would lead them.

    And a third faction would call for a Republic. Maybe led by one of the lefty Labour types. I dunno! ;)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    This made me laugh. Is he talking about us? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/google/11201009/Strict-Mistress-The-worlds-secret-sexual-preferences-revealed-by-Google.html
    I suppose it’s in the eye of the beholder whether this is a good thing or a bad thing. Take the “Strict Mistress” thing, for example. Before the dawn of the Internet, people who experienced this urge would probably bury their desires deep down, maybe try to slake their needs with hard-to-obtain and dubious mail-order catalogues, or with sex phone lines.

    Now, they are only one click from a webpage that will explain – and, crucially, normalise – those desires. There’s usually an FAQ page, with “Am I crazy?” near the top. The answer, by the way, is always “No”, and it’s always society that’s in the wrong, whether the website is about ladies with an eye for discipline or Ukip membership (if only Google Trends could produce Venn diagrams).

    The Internet also allows browsers to delve deeper, find online communities and forums, and reinforce their beliefs among a group of people who, for the first time, won’t challenge them or call them mad. They learn the jargon the community uses, and find out how to go about fulfilling their needs.

  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Similar to the ComRes phone poll last Monday.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Oooh

    Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft

    In the Ashcroft National Poll released at 4pm one party records it's lowest vote share since I started the ANP

    The lowest LD share was 6% in June this year so maybe they're on 5% this time.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited November 2014
    Oh dear Ed.

    Add in the Scottish woes, and what's the new Firewall number now?
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548




    As TSE mentioned, Palpatine cloned himself to fight another day (and yes, TSE, I knew about the Emperor clones!).

    Actually as I'm not married there will be an eventual succession crisis in the Commonwealth. TSE would lead one faction, let's call them the Federalists, who want to continue the Constitutional nature of the Commonwealth.

    One faction would be the Imperialists, who want to abolish the Imperial Senate and become a unitary state. Let's assume Sean T would lead them.

    And a third faction would call for a Republic. Maybe led by one of the lefty Labour types. I dunno! ;)

    I'm sure even you could pull once you were emperor!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Speedy said:

    Crossover/Labour slump to their lowest ever figure with @LordAshcroft

    Con 30 (-1) Lab 29 (-2) LD 10 (+3) UKIP 16 (-2) Greens 6 (+1)

    There is a rising chance that no party will score more than 30% in the next election.
    Some of us have been saying that since 2010.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Oh dear Ed.

    Add in the Scottish woes, and what's the new Firewall number now?

    Can Ed beat Gordon's 2010 score ?

  • Regarding 9/11 theories, my gast was rather flabbered when, during my brief stay in Colorado in 2011, there was actually a debate one Sunday afternoon at University of Colorado, Boulder regarding whether or not the Twin Towers were destroyed through a controlled demolition. I decided to attend through curiosity alone, and I was surprised how civilised the debate was. There were no hecklers, no police presence, no Uni security vetting attendees. Everything went smoothly.

    http://www.ae911truth.org/news/459-uc-boulder-debate.html

    Fascinating, Sunil.

    Was it followed by one about whether the Earth might be flat?
    Fortunately not!

    And yet they legalised Cannabis after I left!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    29% for Labour is actually 0.7% lower than they polled in May 2010 with Brown.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Mr. Speedy, maybe. I wonder whether tribal loyalty and/or trying to kick the 'other side' will still come to the fore and we'll get more blue/red votes than anticipated.

    I think the opposite is happening right now, since no side can kick the other directly they are using proxies.
    The Tory voters are supporting UKIP in the Labour seats and Labour voters supporting UKIP in Tory seats, simply because UKIP has a better chance than they do to defeat the enemy.
  • LibDems on double figures?

    Must be an outlier! :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    A quick glance at the tables reveals Labour's problem in spades:

    What are the chances of someone saying they are a 5 out of 10 Labour voter actually getting up, heading to the polls and voting for Mr Miliband come next March. This is 1.5% of the whole sample...

    I'd suggest based on the Ashcroft polls for by-elections that the voters the parties can count on are as follows:

    UKIP 8,9,10 out of 10
    Conservative 9,10 out of 10
    Labour 10 out of 10

    5 out of 10 Labour voters simply won't bother. And there are too many of them for Labour's good.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SamCoatesTimes: Labour's cost of living disaster, as revealed by today's Ashcroft poll http://t.co/m4KYHJ6Gew
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    30 is a par-for-the-poll score for the Tories with Ashcroft. 29 is a new low for Labour. As uninspiring as the Tory numbers are, they don't really look like going lower. Labour however, just keep finding new floors.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    AndyJS said:

    29% for Labour is actually 0.7% lower than they polled in May 2010 with Brown.

    Brown got 42% in Scotland so I guess Ed is doing better in Eng/Wales than the clunking fist.
  • Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes

    Labour's cost of living disaster, as revealed by today's Ashcroft poll

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B1h3ejsCAAAl3F5.jpg
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Pulpstar said:

    A quick glance at the tables reveals Labour's problem in spades:

    @JGForsyth: If u want to know why the Tories r so much less bothered about losing Rochester than they were, u’ll find the answer in Labour’s poll rating
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Frederick J Williams obviously has a brain the size of a pea, allegedly.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited November 2014
    Re @LordAshcroft

    It's only a marking time poll and nothing really new. Everyones waiting for Rochester to go Reckless; or not. Then everything changes.
  • Mr. Speedy, I wonder about that. I'm not so sure it's the case. I think UKIP is a positive force, in the sense that its adherents are generally pro-UKIP rather than anti-Conservative or anti-Labour (they may be anti-'Establishment' but that's a different, nebulous concept).

    Mr. JS, considering Labour's in opposition during so-called austerity involving both its nationwide rivals, that's impressive.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    Crossover/Labour slump to their lowest ever figure with @LordAshcroft

    Con 30 (-1) Lab 29 (-2) LD 10 (+3) UKIP 16 (-2) Greens 6 (+1)

    There is a rising chance that no party will score more than 30% in the next election.
    Some of us have been saying that since 2010.
    If you said than in 2010 then the first reaction would have been "oh that means the LD's are going to win the next election", things change but oddly stay the same, just replace LD with UKIP and it feels the same.
  • Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft

    There should be a teeny weeny degree of measured panic developing in the Labour Party. If not there should be......
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Speedy said:

    Mr. Speedy, maybe. I wonder whether tribal loyalty and/or trying to kick the 'other side' will still come to the fore and we'll get more blue/red votes than anticipated.

    I think the opposite is happening right now, since no side can kick the other directly they are using proxies.
    The Tory voters are supporting UKIP in the Labour seats and Labour voters supporting UKIP in Tory seats, simply because UKIP has a better chance than they do to defeat the enemy.
    THought that could well happen. UKIP is going to pick up huge numbers of second places to Labour north of Birmingham, and large amounts of seconds to the Conservatives in the South East and East (Unless they win those seats)
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    29% for Labour is actually 0.7% lower than they polled in May 2010 with Brown.

    Brown got 42% in Scotland so I guess Ed is doing better in Eng/Wales than the clunking fist.
    That is true, the SNP has shed around 2% from Labour's national total.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    MikeK said:

    Re @LordAshcroft

    It's only a marking time poll and nothing really new. Everyones waiting for Rochester to go Reckless; or not. Then everything changes.

    Doubt it.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    More from Lord A:

    "While 62% of Tory voters said they expected to be better off with a Conservative government, only 44% of Labour voters thought their prospects would be better with their own party in charge. A majority of Labour voters (55%) thought it would make no difference to their own prosperity which party was in office."

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @carldinnen: Breaking; Police Complaints Commission to investigate 3 Police Federation officers who met Andrew Mitchell.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Is this a step towards having metro councils again? Having a Greater Manchester mayor without a council to be mayor of does sound a bit pointless. And using the 1974 boundaries does seem a bit unorginal too. It'd be interesting to hear what Wiganites think, for example, about being lumped back in with Manchester again, rather than what politicians think.

    There are ongoing talks here in the West Midlands about something similar. A sticking point here is that the name Greater Birmingham is a lot less acceptable than the name Greater Manchester is up there.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    edited November 2014
    Ladbrokes GE market

    Most votes Con 8/15 Lab 13/8
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft

    There should be a teeny weeny degree of measured panic developing in the Labour Party. If not there should be......

    What can they do?
    The SNP effect is hitting them hard and it wont go away for a decade.
    Labour should either go hard core socialist to try to get the SNP and some green votes back or go full english and embrace populism.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The country is fragmenting into different sects. Within 10 to 15 years one party winning as much as 30% will be regarded as a great achievement.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    Ladbrokes GE market

    Most votes Con 8/15 Lab 13/8

    And Lab maj now 11/4
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    England: CON 32: LAB 31 UKIP 18 LD 10

    (before adjustment for DK/refusal)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,821

    MikeK said:

    Oooh-ah! Revolt on the Right continues apace:

    http://conservativewoman.co.uk/camerons-tories-are-no-different-to-labour/

    Words that are balm to kippers.

    You know the author of that piece is a 9/11 "truther"?
    A) Only an utter ignoramus would dismiss someone's opinion based on another, totally unrelated opinion that they hold.

    B) I am a 9/11 'truther' -or to put it more accurately, of the two conspiracy theories that are used to explain the events of 9-11 (since it was by definition a conspiracy), I believe the version adhered to by our Government and broadcast media to be the less credible. Since it isn't a topic that is regularly discussed here, I don't discuss it. Happy to explain why, but alternatively do go on using thoughtless smears in a rather desperate attempt to discredit your political opponents.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pleased that I happened to lay £25 on Labour winning a majority just before this poll came out.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Is there any possibility at all of a UKIP/conservative coalition?
This discussion has been closed.