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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Survation Rochester poll will be published here after 6

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  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Np, Mr. Scout. I do sympathise somewhat with Miliband. I'm not photogenic myself, but on the rare occasions anyone takes one I tend to look more serial killer than Mr. Bean, so it's worse for him [and, of course, I'm not the Leader of the Opposition].

    There is a serious point about how much weight we should give appearance, awkwardness and so on. Blair was very smooth and articulate, quick-witted and well-mannered. He was also an utter ****.

    Still, Miliband would be faring better if he didn't have policies which were discredited in the 4th century.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Looking closely at the blow-up of the coin in Milibands hand it may not be a 2p piece, it might be a token such as one buys for a a car-wash (there seems to be a suggestion of a groove across the centre). If that is the case then the financial value of Miliband's generosity changes completely. In stead of giving the beggar 2p he might actually have given her the means to get her car washed, possibly worth several pounds.

    The bacon butty event I ignored, it was silly and who hasn't occasionally looked stupid when eating hot finger food. This one, however, shows Miliband in an unplanned interaction with a poor person on the street a much more revealing situation as far as his character goes. Even though he must have known the cameras were on him he comes across as, well, a nasty piece of work who doesn't give a shit.

    Still photos can be carefully selected. You may remember Blair's fixed rictus grin and power walk stance, so that any press shot would show him smiling. That both looked absurd on television might have been why they were eventually ditched. But pause any film or television programme and it is easy to find stills of great actors or sportsmen looking stupid.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited October 2014
    When the giving gets tough, the tough get going.

    http://order-order.com/2014/10/31/5-ways-this-photo-op-could-have-gone-any-worse/

    Bad enough being mentioned once in one day on Guido, but twice...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    My guess FWIW is that he went to give her some money and then discovered to his horror that he only had 2p in his pocket. Embarrassment all round. No wonder he was reluctant to look at her.

    Does this make him a bad person? Not at all. Does it support the theory that thinking ahead is beyond him? Circumstantially.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2014
    We have to wait a little longer:
    Survation. ‏@Survation 4m4 minutes ago
    Stay tuned: we'll tweet latest voting intention from Survation/Unite Rochester & Strood by-election poll at 6.30pm
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    DavidL said:

    My guess FWIW is that he went to give her some money and then discovered to his horror that he only had 2p in his pocket. Embarrassment all round. No wonder he was reluctant to look at her.

    Does this make him a bad person? Not at all. Does it support the theory that thinking ahead is beyond him? Circumstantially.

    Backs up the "ivory tower" meme.

    I never give money to beggars - ever.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,586
    edited October 2014
    Sean_F said:

    To use the vernacular Ukip have just had their rear ends kicked in South Yorkshire, contrary to expectations. I suspect they will perform somewhat better in Rochester in the borough of Medway

    UKIP did increase their share of the vote by 20%,

    UKIPs failure was to get the protest vote out. Labour got their postal votes out and didn't need to do anymore.

    And that is the lesson for today. Its easy to saw you will vote UKIP its another matter actually getting to the voting booth and putting the cross in their box.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    What's the fuss about the Ed photo? Was he giving a tiny amount or something?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2014

    isam said:

    Looking closely at the blow-up of the coin in Milibands hand it may not be a 2p piece, it might be a token such as one buys for a a car-wash (there seems to be a suggestion of a groove across the centre). If that is the case then the financial value of Miliband's generosity changes completely. In stead of giving the beggar 2p he might actually have given her the means to get her car washed, possibly worth several pounds.

    The bacon butty event I ignored, it was silly and who hasn't occasionally looked stupid when eating hot finger food. This one, however, shows Miliband in an unplanned interaction with a poor person on the street a much more revealing situation as far as his character goes. Even though he must have known the cameras were on him he comes across as, well, a nasty piece of work who doesn't give a shit.

    Do you really think that?!

    Honestly these awkward photo's probably reveal less than nothing about him
    They may not show him in the most flattering light but, like candid camera, they may show more of him like he actually is. Each to their own. Look at the photo and, ignoring personalities and poiltics, describe to yourself what you see.
    Yes, he looks awkward but I would say he has probably given money to a beggar or eaten a sandwich a hundred times and not looked awkward, and that's why those photo's don't get shown and these do..

    Really who cares? I think it is quite wrong to infer some sleight on his character from this.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Am I the only one who doesn't "get" the Ed photograph?

    No Ed doesn't get it either.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    TGOHF said:

    DavidL said:

    My guess FWIW is that he went to give her some money and then discovered to his horror that he only had 2p in his pocket. Embarrassment all round. No wonder he was reluctant to look at her.

    Does this make him a bad person? Not at all. Does it support the theory that thinking ahead is beyond him? Circumstantially.

    Backs up the "ivory tower" meme.

    I never give money to beggars - ever.
    I am extremely reluctant to because so many of them are simply being used by some extremely unpleasant people who treat them brutally. There has been a series of Romanian/Gypsy women in Edinburgh over the last year. They sit very formally, sometimes on their knees and they don't move from their position for hours. I was going to say that it beggars belief that they do this of their own accord but puns like that are to be deprecated. We really should not tolerate this kind of exploitation.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Looking closely at the blow-up of the coin in Milibands hand it may not be a 2p piece, it might be a token such as one buys for a a car-wash (there seems to be a suggestion of a groove across the centre). If that is the case then the financial value of Miliband's generosity changes completely. In stead of giving the beggar 2p he might actually have given her the means to get her car washed, possibly worth several pounds.

    The bacon butty event I ignored, it was silly and who hasn't occasionally looked stupid when eating hot finger food. This one, however, shows Miliband in an unplanned interaction with a poor person on the street a much more revealing situation as far as his character goes. Even though he must have known the cameras were on him he comes across as, well, a nasty piece of work who doesn't give a shit.

    Still photos can be carefully selected. You may remember Blair's fixed rictus grin and power walk stance, so that any press shot would show him smiling. That both looked absurd on television might have been why they were eventually ditched. But pause any film or television programme and it is easy to find stills of great actors or sportsmen looking stupid.
    Yup, and I mentioned such a possibility in a previous post (even though it is difficult to see the choreography of the encounter that gave us the photo but would show Miliband in such a good light).

    Milliband seems to have made a complete political ass of himself, not the first time and probably not the last. There really isn't much point in arguing over it (even the Labour spin that the 2p was only the tip of the ice-burg of what he gave doesn't help, or ring true).
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    What's the fuss about the Ed photo? Was he giving a tiny amount or something?

    The photo is to grainy to tell.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    To use the vernacular Ukip have just had their rear ends kicked in South Yorkshire, contrary to expectations. I suspect they will perform somewhat better in Rochester in the borough of Medway

    UKIP did increase their share of the vote by 20%,

    UKIPs failure was to get the protest vote out. Labour got their postal votes out and didn't need to do anymore.

    And that is the lesson for today. Its easy to saw you will vote UKIP its another matter actually getting to the voting booth and putting the cross in their box.
    Labour didn't get their vote to the voting booth. It was all postal votes. Presumably powered by "community leaders".
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    To use the vernacular Ukip have just had their rear ends kicked in South Yorkshire, contrary to expectations. I suspect they will perform somewhat better in Rochester in the borough of Medway

    UKIP did increase their share of the vote by 20%,

    UKIPs failure was to get the protest vote out. Labour got their postal votes out and didn't need to do anymore.

    And that is the lesson for today. Its easy to saw you will vote UKIP its another matter actually getting to the voting booth and putting the cross in their box.
    The lesson is that the Lib Dem vote in Sheffield won it for them
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited October 2014
    PAW said:

    isam - surely you smile when you give?

    tbf, I give to a couple of locals on the way home from work and it has never occurred to me to smile or engage them in conversation. A nod maybe but generally I'm concentrating on landing a pound coin in a hat without breaking stride. Of course, I'm not hoping to be Prime Minister.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,121
    Newstatesman has a new website for GE 2015:

    may2015.com

    Analysis, polls etc etc
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited October 2014
    How times have changed. It seems like only yesterday that the PBKinnocks were massaging themselves silly over photos of Dave and his pint of Guinness, or Osborne weeping at a funeral.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Afternoon all and on the Rochester poll, will either OGH or TSE be offering a realistic assessment on the numbers produced given the "accuracy" of Survation polls in recent by-elections?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    As an aside, Miliband had what, an hour of good news (admittedly only a PCC hold, but still) before this slightly awkward moment?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    o/t but relevant to Labour/SNP GE VI news, and it's a poll anyway

    http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/297867-stv-poll-third-of-scots-support-second-referendum-within-ten-years/

    and 58% want one within 5 years.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Carnyx, that seems a bit weird, more wanting one in 5 years than within 10.

    Also, 'once in a lifetime' was not a secret during the two years and more of campaigning. I pity Scots that might be subjected to another vote after they gave their opinion. Repeatedly asking the people a question until they give the 'right' answer is a despicable Brussels tactic that ought not be copied.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    DavidL said:

    My guess FWIW is that he went to give her some money and then discovered to his horror that he only had 2p in his pocket. Embarrassment all round. No wonder he was reluctant to look at her.

    Does this make him a bad person? Not at all. Does it support the theory that thinking ahead is beyond him? Circumstantially.

    The Guardian had an article about giving money to 'beggars' http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/dec/06/dont-give-money-beggars-help-them

  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    What's the fuss about the Ed photo? Was he giving a tiny amount or something?

    The photo is to grainy to tell.
    According to Twitter, Ed Bland dropped a 2p piece into the beggar's cup
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Newstatesman has a new website for GE 2015:

    may2015.com

    Analysis, polls etc etc

    They have a rather strange post where they miss the point that uniform national swing doesn't really work when you have as severe a drop in support as Labour displayed in the IPSOS Mori poll.
  • How times have changed. It seems like only yesterday that the PBKinnocks were massaging themselves silly over photos of Dave and his pint of Guinness, or Osborne weeping at a funeral.

    Or failing to sing the Welsh National Anthem properly. They don't seem to like that game any more for some reason.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited October 2014
    Sean_F said:

    Danny565 said:

    FPT

    antifrank said:



    I think Danny565 is referring to Core Cities. I wrote about these in the summer:

    http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/core-cities-labours-reservoir.html

    Given a second chance, I'd definitely want to revisit this piece now to consider how UKIP fit into this.

    Yes, very good article and I would agree with it. There was a VERY noticeable difference between the results in the major/core cities (I take the point that the distinction between towns and cities can be arbitrary so I'll go with your definition of core city), and towns and smaller "cities" with similar demographics. Labour obviously boomed in London while they were up by 20% in Liverpool and Manchester, up by 15% in Birmingham and Bristol - at the same time as they were barely stumbling up by 5% on their dismal 2009 performance in some of the working-class towns in the Midlands and South (which unfortunately for them are where some of the key marginals are located). And strong Labour increases usually coincided with mediocre UKIP performances, again even in parts of cities which were very white/working-class,

    I have a theory for this that, in big cities, even for people whose own lives are poor, the situation just doesn't feel as hopeless. A lot of people who live in working-class towns are really angry about things that might seem quite "trivial". When I was doing some leafletting/canvassing in my town up until a year ago (a safeish Labour seat in Cheshire), while most UKIP voters definitely were angry about immigration, another thing that really bugged them was how all the shops in the town centre were boarded up, which they saw as a sign that the government was just leaving them to rot away and didn't care about them. Maybe the fact that in cities, even if you live in a very poor neighbourhood, the fact that there'll usually be some signs of life within walking distance means the situation doesn't seem as terminally hopeless.
    The problem for Labour is that there's not much left for them to win in core cities. Performing strongly there means piling up even bigger majorities in seats they already hold.

    Yes, I completely agree. I think Labour will underperform the uniform swing next year because they'll be "wasting" votes with bigger majorities in some of their safe city seats. I'm not sure how much I trust Ashcroft's marginals polling given how much his weekly polls bounce around.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    There is now a shot of Ed looking awkward from the beggar's side of the pavement.

    His PR team should be given their P45s, unless they are trying to undermine him. I have said before he does seem to get undone by photo ops. Even his twiter feed photos fail to put him in even a half decent light.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited October 2014
    antifrank said:

    Newstatesman has a new website for GE 2015:

    may2015.com

    Analysis, polls etc etc

    They have a rather strange post where they miss the point that uniform national swing doesn't really work when you have as severe a drop in support as Labour displayed in the IPSOS Mori poll.
    They have the map up predicting the SNP are going to stay on 6 seats too.

    "Others 11"

    Well that's good for a laugh.
  • First response to today's 'news'.

    Oh, Ed. No.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    Mr. Carnyx, that seems a bit weird, more wanting one in 5 years than within 10.

    Also, 'once in a lifetime' was not a secret during the two years and more of campaigning. I pity Scots that might be subjected to another vote after they gave their opinion. Repeatedly asking the people a question until they give the 'right' answer is a despicable Brussels tactic that ought not be copied.

    Two thirds - the 'two' was left off the URL!

    In this case, if the voters want it, what is the problem?

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,121
    antifrank said:

    Newstatesman has a new website for GE 2015:

    may2015.com

    Analysis, polls etc etc

    They have a rather strange post where they miss the point that uniform national swing doesn't really work when you have as severe a drop in support as Labour displayed in the IPSOS Mori poll.
    I have a bad cold so can't get my head properly around it but they seem to be using the Strong Transition Model where voters are grouped into strong and weak supporters.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    My impartial forecast for the new Rochester poll: not good for the Tories. The main reason is the fact they've selected a less-than-impressive candidate.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    I'm wondering when Ed will have a photo op so disastrous that it's the equivalent of Julia Gillard's "knitting a baby kangaroo" snap...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    Rumour I heard (from a totally unreliable source, i.e. a stockbroker) was that Labour was coming up strong in Rochester, and he expected them to come second, ahead of the Tories.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Ladbrokes have responded to Labour's win in their heartlands by...

    Cutting UKIP for Rother Valley from 8s to 5s

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/rother-valley/winning-party

    Rotherham proper is too short, Rother Valley was definitely too long:

    Analysis by local election results:

    Lab UKIP
    Anston and Woodsetts 1339 1308
    Dinnington 1195 1293
    Hellaby 1150 1825
    Holderness 1064 1061
    Maltby 1183 1120
    Rother Vale 1097 1444
    Sitwell 1084 1776
    Wales 1386 1108

    9498 10935 UKIP Price 8-1 (Now 5-1) Rother Valley

    Boston Castle 1428 1267
    Brinsworth 1651 1611
    Keppel 1258 1658
    Valley 1387 1572
    Rotherham West 1528 1567
    Rotherham East 1460 1240
    Wingfield 1161 1552

    9873 10467 UKIP Price 5-2 Rotherham

    I think Rotherham should be around 9-2 and Rother Valley 4-1.
    I don't think Labour will lose Rother Valley as long as Kevin Barron remains in place, since he's a better than average MP by most accounts.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    The South Yorkshire result was was a win for decency against a campaign from Ukip which was indecent.Further,after the Tories announcing they are quite happy for women and children to drown in the Med,the Labour candidate in Rochester could kick-box for decency in Rochester and Strood.Both Ukip and Tory fit the nasty party bill.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    How times have changed. It seems like only yesterday that the PBKinnocks were massaging themselves silly over photos of Dave and his pint of Guinness, or Osborne weeping at a funeral.

    The Pint of Guinness was fair game as it was a schoolboy ricket, but I agree re Osborne at the funeral
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2014
    An interesting analysis to read,it suggests that moderate centrists are a minority of the electorate:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/29/opinion/nothing-in-moderation.html?ref=opinion&_r=1

    59% hold extreme views on Taxes, while 49% hold extreme views on the rest of the issues, also:

    "In a separate study, Ahler and Broockman sought to determine whether voters adopted extreme positions in surveys because there were no consequences, whereas in the real world of governing, these same voters might prefer their elected officials to take more moderate stands. This proved not to be the case"

    This explains the rise of left wing populism in scotland and right wing populism in england, people actually want it.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    What's the fuss about the Ed photo? Was he giving a tiny amount or something?

    The photo is to grainy to tell.
    According to Twitter, Ed Bland dropped a 2p piece into the beggar's cup
    It's difficult when you either have 2p or a £20 note in your pocket.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    edited October 2014
    Mr. Carnyx, ah, right, that does make more sense.

    I do think that's a valid argument, and one I would normally adhere to (indeed, I did for the first referendum when the SNP got a majority in Holyrood).

    But there are stronger arguments against:
    1) the vote was on the basis of being once in a lifetime
    2) repeatedly asking the question is a despicable tactic to try and nag the electorate into agreeing to something they've declined
    3) the uncertainty would damage both the Scottish and wider UK economies
    4) if we're playing the 'most voters want this' game then we should also leave the EU and bring back hanging

    Now, if there's sod all further devolution that may well add to the scales for another referendum being a sound idea. But if there is deeper devolution, I'd maintain that a second one so soon after the first would be illegitimate (in a moral sense).

    Edited extra bit: Mr. JS/1000, if that's true it'd be significantly bad news for Cameron.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    The Indy is having a go at Ed, with a few reminders.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/ed-miliband-no-photo-opps-labour-leader-takes-biggest-photo-opp-of-the-year-thus-far-9831681.html

    His press team are crap. Sack them, and hire new people unless Labour want to lose in May 2015.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    How times have changed. It seems like only yesterday that the PBKinnocks were massaging themselves silly over photos of Dave and his pint of Guinness, or Osborne weeping at a funeral.

    Did they? Pasties on stations and daughters in pubs, perhaps, and even the Bullingdon shot if you go back far enough, but Guinness?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,121
    AndyJS said:

    My impartial forecast for the new Rochester poll: not good for the Tories. The main reason is the fact they've selected a less-than-impressive candidate.

    They didn't select the candidate though - it was an open primary. Something I'm against as I've said before.
  • The South Yorkshire result was was a win for decency against a campaign from Ukip which was indecent.Further,after the Tories announcing they are quite happy for women and children to drown in the Med,the Labour candidate in Rochester could kick-box for decency in Rochester and Strood.Both Ukip and Tory fit the nasty party bill.

    You're the party of winning seats by making the white folks angry.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    The South Yorkshire result was was a win for decency against a campaign from Ukip which was indecent.Further,after the Tories announcing they are quite happy for women and children to drown in the Med,the Labour candidate in Rochester could kick-box for decency in Rochester and Strood.Both Ukip and Tory fit the nasty party bill.

    Troll alert.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    isam said:

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    To use the vernacular Ukip have just had their rear ends kicked in South Yorkshire, contrary to expectations. I suspect they will perform somewhat better in Rochester in the borough of Medway

    UKIP did increase their share of the vote by 20%,

    UKIPs failure was to get the protest vote out. Labour got their postal votes out and didn't need to do anymore.

    And that is the lesson for today. Its easy to saw you will vote UKIP its another matter actually getting to the voting booth and putting the cross in their box.
    The lesson is that the Lib Dem vote in Sheffield won it for them
    So there's lots of Lib Dems? I thought people said they didn't stand because they would lose their deposit.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    My impartial forecast for the new Rochester poll: not good for the Tories. The main reason is the fact they've selected a less-than-impressive candidate.

    They didn't select the candidate though - it was an open primary. Something I'm against as I've said before.
    It wasn't very "open" though. They refused to announce the full figures for each candidate.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2014

    AndyJS said:

    My impartial forecast for the new Rochester poll: not good for the Tories. The main reason is the fact they've selected a less-than-impressive candidate.

    They didn't select the candidate though - it was an open primary. Something I'm against as I've said before.
    They selected the 2 candidates for the primary, which "surprise" were identical.
    So the primary made no difference in selecting the candidate.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    rcs1000 said:

    Rumour I heard (from a totally unreliable source, i.e. a stockbroker) was that Labour was coming up strong in Rochester, and he expected them to come second, ahead of the Tories.

    They were only 6% behind the Tories in the first Survation poll.

    The Sun had a report a few days ago that said internal polling showed 50% of Labour voters are going to vote UKIP though.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    What's the fuss about the Ed photo? Was he giving a tiny amount or something?

    The photo is to grainy to tell.
    According to Twitter, Ed Bland dropped a 2p piece into the beggar's cup
    Are beggars on Twitter now? How times change.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2014
    rcs1000 said:

    Rumour I heard (from a totally unreliable source, i.e. a stockbroker) was that Labour was coming up strong in Rochester, and he expected them to come second, ahead of the Tories.

    The Labour candidate seems more impressive than the Tory IMO.

    It's perfectly possible the gap between Con and Lab will be smaller than that between UKIP and Con.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    Socrates said:

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    To use the vernacular Ukip have just had their rear ends kicked in South Yorkshire, contrary to expectations. I suspect they will perform somewhat better in Rochester in the borough of Medway

    UKIP did increase their share of the vote by 20%,

    UKIPs failure was to get the protest vote out. Labour got their postal votes out and didn't need to do anymore.

    And that is the lesson for today. Its easy to saw you will vote UKIP its another matter actually getting to the voting booth and putting the cross in their box.
    Labour didn't get their vote to the voting booth. It was all postal votes. Presumably powered by "community leaders".
    What are you suggesting? Skullduggery?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. L, not really. Remember the young chap from a Labour conference a few years ago, bemoaning his poverty by tweeting from his iPad?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    dr_spyn said:

    There is now a shot of Ed looking awkward from the beggar's side of the pavement.

    His PR team should be given their P45s, unless they are trying to undermine him. I have said before he does seem to get undone by photo ops. Even his twiter feed photos fail to put him in even a half decent light.

    Mr. Spyn, Remember the Labour PR team gave us this splendid photo of the then PM:

    https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAcQjRw&url=http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/campaigns/our_boys/2769863/Browns-night-in-Afghan-warzone.html&ei=1L5TVOjnKcLe7Abt3oGIDg&bvm=bv.78677474,d.ZGU&psig=AFQjCNGjdZ1BPwqrnazhMHSvBsnGNIfl7A&ust=1414860889828483
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Survation By Election Accuracy - Tory seats 2014

    Clacton
    CON understated by 4.6%,
    LAB overstated by 1.8%
    UKIP overstated by 4.3%

    Newark – 1st poll
    CON understated by 9%,
    LAB overstated by 9.3%
    UKIP overstated by 2.1%

    Newark – 2nd poll
    CON understated by 3%,
    LAB overstated by 4.3%
    UKIP overstated by 1.1
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    To use the vernacular Ukip have just had their rear ends kicked in South Yorkshire, contrary to expectations. I suspect they will perform somewhat better in Rochester in the borough of Medway

    UKIP did increase their share of the vote by 20%,

    UKIPs failure was to get the protest vote out. Labour got their postal votes out and didn't need to do anymore.

    And that is the lesson for today. Its easy to saw you will vote UKIP its another matter actually getting to the voting booth and putting the cross in their box.
    The lesson is that the Lib Dem vote in Sheffield won it for them
    So there's lots of Lib Dems? I thought people said they didn't stand because they would lose their deposit.
    They got 53% in Sheffield Hallam & 41% in Sheffield Central in 2010 while coming 1st or 2nd in every Sheffield seat, so yes there are lots of them
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    isam said:

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    To use the vernacular Ukip have just had their rear ends kicked in South Yorkshire, contrary to expectations. I suspect they will perform somewhat better in Rochester in the borough of Medway

    UKIP did increase their share of the vote by 20%,

    UKIPs failure was to get the protest vote out. Labour got their postal votes out and didn't need to do anymore.

    And that is the lesson for today. Its easy to saw you will vote UKIP its another matter actually getting to the voting booth and putting the cross in their box.
    The lesson is that the Lib Dem vote in Sheffield won it for them
    So there's lots of Lib Dems? I thought people said they didn't stand because they would lose their deposit.
    19 LD votes were enough and 19 votes is also a lost deposit.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    isam said:

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    To use the vernacular Ukip have just had their rear ends kicked in South Yorkshire, contrary to expectations. I suspect they will perform somewhat better in Rochester in the borough of Medway

    UKIP did increase their share of the vote by 20%,

    UKIPs failure was to get the protest vote out. Labour got their postal votes out and didn't need to do anymore.

    And that is the lesson for today. Its easy to saw you will vote UKIP its another matter actually getting to the voting booth and putting the cross in their box.
    The lesson is that the Lib Dem vote in Sheffield won it for them
    So there's lots of Lib Dems? I thought people said they didn't stand because they would lose their deposit.
    They got 53% in Sheffield Hallam & 41% in Sheffield Central in 2010 while coming 1st or 2nd in every Sheffield seat, so yes there are lots of them
    Wrong tense.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Chestnut, cheers for that. Blues understated, purples and reds overstated should be considered when we get the next poll.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,821

    Socrates said:

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    To use the vernacular Ukip have just had their rear ends kicked in South Yorkshire, contrary to expectations. I suspect they will perform somewhat better in Rochester in the borough of Medway

    UKIP did increase their share of the vote by 20%,

    UKIPs failure was to get the protest vote out. Labour got their postal votes out and didn't need to do anymore.

    And that is the lesson for today. Its easy to saw you will vote UKIP its another matter actually getting to the voting booth and putting the cross in their box.
    Labour didn't get their vote to the voting booth. It was all postal votes. Presumably powered by "community leaders".
    What are you suggesting? Skullduggery?
    You are proposing otherwise?

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    The South Yorkshire result was was a win for decency against a campaign from Ukip which was indecent.Further,after the Tories announcing they are quite happy for women and children to drown in the Med,the Labour candidate in Rochester could kick-box for decency in Rochester and Strood.Both Ukip and Tory fit the nasty party bill.

    Yes, maybe if no one mentions nasty things happening, they will just go away
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    edited October 2014
    Ed on R5 in next 15 mins to talk about devolving power to English regions if he wins election.

    Wonder if they'll ask him about the tuppence...
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    Speedy said:

    isam said:

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    To use the vernacular Ukip have just had their rear ends kicked in South Yorkshire, contrary to expectations. I suspect they will perform somewhat better in Rochester in the borough of Medway

    UKIP did increase their share of the vote by 20%,

    UKIPs failure was to get the protest vote out. Labour got their postal votes out and didn't need to do anymore.

    And that is the lesson for today. Its easy to saw you will vote UKIP its another matter actually getting to the voting booth and putting the cross in their box.
    The lesson is that the Lib Dem vote in Sheffield won it for them
    So there's lots of Lib Dems? I thought people said they didn't stand because they would lose their deposit.
    19 LD votes were enough and 19 votes is also a lost deposit.
    Labour just over 50%, UKIP 32%.
    Please explain where the 19 votes fits in.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Fiona Woolf.. gawn
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29855265

    Abuse inquiry: Fiona Woolf steps down as chairwoman
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    To use the vernacular Ukip have just had their rear ends kicked in South Yorkshire, contrary to expectations. I suspect they will perform somewhat better in Rochester in the borough of Medway

    UKIP did increase their share of the vote by 20%,

    UKIPs failure was to get the protest vote out. Labour got their postal votes out and didn't need to do anymore.

    And that is the lesson for today. Its easy to saw you will vote UKIP its another matter actually getting to the voting booth and putting the cross in their box.
    The lesson is that the Lib Dem vote in Sheffield won it for them
    So there's lots of Lib Dems? I thought people said they didn't stand because they would lose their deposit.
    They got 53% in Sheffield Hallam & 41% in Sheffield Central in 2010 while coming 1st or 2nd in every Sheffield seat, so yes there are lots of them
    Wrong tense.
    Oh what price are we offering Lib Dems in Hallam? Odds against?!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Speedy said:

    isam said:

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    To use the vernacular Ukip have just had their rear ends kicked in South Yorkshire, contrary to expectations. I suspect they will perform somewhat better in Rochester in the borough of Medway

    UKIP did increase their share of the vote by 20%,

    UKIPs failure was to get the protest vote out. Labour got their postal votes out and didn't need to do anymore.

    And that is the lesson for today. Its easy to saw you will vote UKIP its another matter actually getting to the voting booth and putting the cross in their box.
    The lesson is that the Lib Dem vote in Sheffield won it for them
    So there's lots of Lib Dems? I thought people said they didn't stand because they would lose their deposit.
    19 LD votes were enough and 19 votes is also a lost deposit.
    Labour just over 50%, UKIP 32%.
    Please explain where the 19 votes fits in.
    19 votes more than the 50% required to avoid a second round.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited October 2014
    Were wolf, there wolf, were wolf...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29855265

    Which reminds me of the old joke from Young Frankenstein.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch
    ?v=gQQtgx4iG8E
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited October 2014

    How times have changed. It seems like only yesterday that the PBKinnocks were massaging themselves silly over photos of Dave and his pint of Guinness, or Osborne weeping at a funeral.

    Did they? Pasties on stations and daughters in pubs, perhaps, and even the Bullingdon shot if you go back far enough, but Guinness?
    Some here expelled so much fluid over 'that pint', it's a miracle they weren't hospitalised with dehydration.
  • Now who said these words....


    “a politician who thinks that a good photo is the most important thing” not to vote for him.

    “Because I don’t,” he added. “I believe that people would quite like somebody to stand up and say there is more to politics than the photo-op. And that culture diminishes our politics.”
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,121
    isam said:

    Fiona Woolf.. gawn

    There'll be nobody left in the Establishment to do this job at this rate.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Speedy said:

    An interesting analysis to read,it suggests that moderate centrists are a minority of the electorate:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/29/opinion/nothing-in-moderation.html?ref=opinion&_r=1

    59% hold extreme views on Taxes, while 49% hold extreme views on the rest of the issues, also:

    "In a separate study, Ahler and Broockman sought to determine whether voters adopted extreme positions in surveys because there were no consequences, whereas in the real world of governing, these same voters might prefer their elected officials to take more moderate stands. This proved not to be the case"

    This explains the rise of left wing populism in scotland and right wing populism in england, people actually want it.

    Social conservatism/economic socialism is the way forward. The political elites stubbornly clinging to the "centre ground" theory that they've staked their careers on will be the last to accept it, obviously.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    Rumour I heard (from a totally unreliable source, i.e. a stockbroker) was that Labour was coming up strong in Rochester, and he expected them to come second, ahead of the Tories.

    The Sun wrote the other day that almost half of 2010 Labour voters will vote UKIP.
    How can they lose half of their votes and go up?

    If Labour beats the Tories for 2nd place then Rochester will definitely remain in UKIP hands in May, the remaining Tories will be forced to vote tactically UKIP because of FPTP.
    Also the Tories coming 3rd in Rochester will definitely mean a no confidence vote for Cameron alright.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    edited October 2014
    Smarmeron said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29855265

    Abuse inquiry: Fiona Woolf steps down as chairwoman

    For the sake of the children can we PLEASE get on with the damn Inquiry!
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932

    Socrates said:

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    To use the vernacular Ukip have just had their rear ends kicked in South Yorkshire, contrary to expectations. I suspect they will perform somewhat better in Rochester in the borough of Medway

    UKIP did increase their share of the vote by 20%,

    UKIPs failure was to get the protest vote out. Labour got their postal votes out and didn't need to do anymore.

    And that is the lesson for today. Its easy to saw you will vote UKIP its another matter actually getting to the voting booth and putting the cross in their box.
    Labour didn't get their vote to the voting booth. It was all postal votes. Presumably powered by "community leaders".
    What are you suggesting? Skullduggery?
    You are proposing otherwise?

    Yes, democracy at work.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Fiona Woolf.. gawn

    There'll be nobody left in the Establishment to do this job at this rate.
    Leon Britton available?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2014
    Danny565 said:

    Speedy said:

    An interesting analysis to read,it suggests that moderate centrists are a minority of the electorate:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/29/opinion/nothing-in-moderation.html?ref=opinion&_r=1

    59% hold extreme views on Taxes, while 49% hold extreme views on the rest of the issues, also:

    "In a separate study, Ahler and Broockman sought to determine whether voters adopted extreme positions in surveys because there were no consequences, whereas in the real world of governing, these same voters might prefer their elected officials to take more moderate stands. This proved not to be the case"

    This explains the rise of left wing populism in scotland and right wing populism in england, people actually want it.

    Social conservatism/economic socialism is the way forward. The political elites stubbornly clinging to the "centre ground" theory that they've staked their careers on will be the last to accept it, obviously.
    "Social conservatism/economic socialism"
    That was the Labour's party position till 1979.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited October 2014
    isam said:

    Fiona Woolf.. gawn

    They're going to have problems finding another Chairperson.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,821
    Danny565 said:

    Speedy said:

    An interesting analysis to read,it suggests that moderate centrists are a minority of the electorate:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/29/opinion/nothing-in-moderation.html?ref=opinion&_r=1

    59% hold extreme views on Taxes, while 49% hold extreme views on the rest of the issues, also:

    "In a separate study, Ahler and Broockman sought to determine whether voters adopted extreme positions in surveys because there were no consequences, whereas in the real world of governing, these same voters might prefer their elected officials to take more moderate stands. This proved not to be the case"

    This explains the rise of left wing populism in scotland and right wing populism in england, people actually want it.

    Social conservatism/economic socialism is the way forward. The political elites stubbornly clinging to the "centre ground" theory that they've staked their careers on will be the last to accept it, obviously.
    Do you have one example, just one, where 'economic socialism' has been successful in the medium to long term?
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    isam said:

    The South Yorkshire result was was a win for decency against a campaign from Ukip which was indecent.Further,after the Tories announcing they are quite happy for women and children to drown in the Med,the Labour candidate in Rochester could kick-box for decency in Rochester and Strood.Both Ukip and Tory fit the nasty party bill.

    Yes, maybe if no one mentions nasty things happening, they will just go away
    And ludicrously hypothetical crimes count more than real ones.

    And wtf does "could kick-box for decency" mean?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    Speedy said:

    isam said:

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    To use the vernacular Ukip have just had their rear ends kicked in South Yorkshire, contrary to expectations. I suspect they will perform somewhat better in Rochester in the borough of Medway

    UKIP did increase their share of the vote by 20%,

    UKIPs failure was to get the protest vote out. Labour got their postal votes out and didn't need to do anymore.

    And that is the lesson for today. Its easy to saw you will vote UKIP its another matter actually getting to the voting booth and putting the cross in their box.
    The lesson is that the Lib Dem vote in Sheffield won it for them
    So there's lots of Lib Dems? I thought people said they didn't stand because they would lose their deposit.
    19 LD votes were enough and 19 votes is also a lost deposit.
    Ok thanks. Of course that implies you think that UKIP would have got a large enough majority of 2nd preferences to overcome Labours 18% lead.
    In any case ISAM disagrees with you:
    "They got 53% in Sheffield Hallam & 41% in Sheffield Central in 2010 while coming 1st or 2nd in every Sheffield seat, so yes there are lots of them" (LibDems)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    To use the vernacular Ukip have just had their rear ends kicked in South Yorkshire, contrary to expectations. I suspect they will perform somewhat better in Rochester in the borough of Medway

    UKIP did increase their share of the vote by 20%,

    UKIPs failure was to get the protest vote out. Labour got their postal votes out and didn't need to do anymore.

    And that is the lesson for today. Its easy to saw you will vote UKIP its another matter actually getting to the voting booth and putting the cross in their box.
    The lesson is that the Lib Dem vote in Sheffield won it for them
    So there's lots of Lib Dems? I thought people said they didn't stand because they would lose their deposit.
    They got 53% in Sheffield Hallam & 41% in Sheffield Central in 2010 while coming 1st or 2nd in every Sheffield seat, so yes there are lots of them
    Wrong tense.
    Oh what price are we offering Lib Dems in Hallam? Odds against?!
    Oh I'm heavily on Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam. He has two things that he has to do for me: fight the next election as leader and keep his seat. If he does those two things, his place in my political pantheon will be assured.

    Outside Hallam, the Lib Dems in Sheffield will be moving from "least concern" to "critically endangered".
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited October 2014
    dr_spyn said:

    Were wolf, there wolf, were wolf...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29855265

    Which reminds me of the old joke from Young Frankenstein.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch

    It's quite hard to follow a link broken like that.

    If you don't want the preview to appear, just strip the "http://" part off the front. E.g...

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQQtgx4iG8E

  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    Now who said these words....


    “a politician who thinks that a good photo is the most important thing” not to vote for him.

    “Because I don’t,” he added. “I believe that people would quite like somebody to stand up and say there is more to politics than the photo-op. And that culture diminishes our politics.”

    If someone were to stand up and say "there is more to politics than the photo-op", I would consider that point far more important than any other in my consideration of who might run the country best and they would definitely win my vote.

    Unless, of course, they looked like a gurning moron while they said it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Ladbrokes have responded to Labour's win in their heartlands by...

    Cutting UKIP for Rother Valley from 8s to 5s

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/rother-valley/winning-party

    Rotherham proper is too short, Rother Valley was definitely too long:

    Analysis by local election results:

    Lab UKIP
    Anston and Woodsetts 1339 1308
    Dinnington 1195 1293
    Hellaby 1150 1825
    Holderness 1064 1061
    Maltby 1183 1120
    Rother Vale 1097 1444
    Sitwell 1084 1776
    Wales 1386 1108

    9498 10935 UKIP Price 8-1 (Now 5-1) Rother Valley

    Boston Castle 1428 1267
    Brinsworth 1651 1611
    Keppel 1258 1658
    Valley 1387 1572
    Rotherham West 1528 1567
    Rotherham East 1460 1240
    Wingfield 1161 1552

    9873 10467 UKIP Price 5-2 Rotherham

    I think Rotherham should be around 9-2 and Rother Valley 4-1.
    I don't think Labour will lose Rother Valley as long as Kevin Barron remains in place, since he's a better than average MP by most accounts.
    That is implied by my assessment too, but how would you price it up ?

    I think the chances for UKIP there are at least as good as Rotherham, which you can back at 1-3 for Labour (And I have done so)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    Mr. Carnyx, ah, right, that does make more sense.

    I do think that's a valid argument, and one I would normally adhere to (indeed, I did for the first referendum when the SNP got a majority in Holyrood).

    But there are stronger arguments against:
    1) the vote was on the basis of being once in a lifetime
    2) repeatedly asking the question is a despicable tactic to try and nag the electorate into agreeing to something they've declined
    3) the uncertainty would damage both the Scottish and wider UK economies
    4) if we're playing the 'most voters want this' game then we should also leave the EU and bring back hanging

    Now, if there's sod all further devolution that may well add to the scales for another referendum being a sound idea. But if there is deeper devolution, I'd maintain that a second one so soon after the first would be illegitimate (in a moral sense).

    Edited extra bit: Mr. JS/1000, if that's true it'd be significantly bad news for Cameron.

    Hmm. Interesting.

    On 1. There was never any formal designation about time periods before the next referendum, but then if the voters want it ... in any case, such agreements evaporate the moment Parliament at Westminster is dissolved.

    On 2. It seems to me that nobody is actually wanting to ask the question (or to ask if the question should be asked) except (in a negative sense) the No side, who are positively demanding the opposite. And to do that is perhaps unwise as it invites the sort of natural journalistic response we are seeing now from STV (which I admit surprises me so soon). The SNP position, of keeping options open and waiting to see what happens, is both reasonable and consistent with democracy, as well as being sensible from their own point of view.

    On 3: Noted. But it would be a lot quicker next time.

    On 4: On the voters wanting it, well, for instance, lots of Scots want to stay IN the EU, which is part of the whole issue. A bit fraudulent of Mr Cameron to promise hell and damnation if the Scots leave the EU, and then the Tories go all Brexitish.

    A great deal will depend on whether the Scots get proper devomax in a credible time period. How much more, or less, likely that now is after Mr Cameron and now Mr Miliband have had a go at the issue I do not know. It will also depend on the composition of the next Westminster parliament, wich is now even more in the air.



  • How times have changed. It seems like only yesterday that the PBKinnocks were massaging themselves silly over photos of Dave and his pint of Guinness, or Osborne weeping at a funeral.

    Did they? Pasties on stations and daughters in pubs, perhaps, and even the Bullingdon shot if you go back far enough, but Guinness?
    Some here expelled so much fluid over 'that pint', it's a miracle they weren't hospitalised with dehydration.
    Don't forget Dave's visit to Morrisons.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    The South Yorkshire result was was a win for decency against a campaign from Ukip which was indecent.Further,after the Tories announcing they are quite happy for women and children to drown in the Med,the Labour candidate in Rochester could kick-box for decency in Rochester and Strood.Both Ukip and Tory fit the nasty party bill.

    There are few local authorities with nastier records than Rotherham and Doncaster, over the years.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Ladbrokes have responded to Labour's win in their heartlands by...

    Cutting UKIP for Rother Valley from 8s to 5s

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/rother-valley/winning-party

    Rotherham proper is too short, Rother Valley was definitely too long:

    Analysis by local election results:

    Lab UKIP
    Anston and Woodsetts 1339 1308
    Dinnington 1195 1293
    Hellaby 1150 1825
    Holderness 1064 1061
    Maltby 1183 1120
    Rother Vale 1097 1444
    Sitwell 1084 1776
    Wales 1386 1108

    9498 10935 UKIP Price 8-1 (Now 5-1) Rother Valley

    Boston Castle 1428 1267
    Brinsworth 1651 1611
    Keppel 1258 1658
    Valley 1387 1572
    Rotherham West 1528 1567
    Rotherham East 1460 1240
    Wingfield 1161 1552

    9873 10467 UKIP Price 5-2 Rotherham

    I think Rotherham should be around 9-2 and Rother Valley 4-1.
    I don't think Labour will lose Rother Valley as long as Kevin Barron remains in place, since he's a better than average MP by most accounts.
    That is implied by my assessment too, but how would you price it up ?

    I think the chances for UKIP there are at least as good as Rotherham, which you can back at 1-3 for Labour (And I have done so)
    I took your advice on Rother Valley and I'm on UKIP at 8/1 - thanks.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    To use the vernacular Ukip have just had their rear ends kicked in South Yorkshire, contrary to expectations. I suspect they will perform somewhat better in Rochester in the borough of Medway

    UKIP did increase their share of the vote by 20%,

    UKIPs failure was to get the protest vote out. Labour got their postal votes out and didn't need to do anymore.

    And that is the lesson for today. Its easy to saw you will vote UKIP its another matter actually getting to the voting booth and putting the cross in their box.
    The lesson is that the Lib Dem vote in Sheffield won it for them
    So there's lots of Lib Dems? I thought people said they didn't stand because they would lose their deposit.
    They got 53% in Sheffield Hallam & 41% in Sheffield Central in 2010 while coming 1st or 2nd in every Sheffield seat, so yes there are lots of them
    Wrong tense.
    Oh what price are we offering Lib Dems in Hallam? Odds against?!
    Oh I'm heavily on Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam. He has two things that he has to do for me: fight the next election as leader and keep his seat. If he does those two things, his place in my political pantheon will be assured.

    Outside Hallam, the Lib Dems in Sheffield will be moving from "least concern" to "critically endangered".
    Possibly so, but there is no doubt that the lack of a Lib Dem candidate in the SYPCC helped Labour no end. It is 1.01 that it would have gone to 2nd preferences had the LDs stood
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited October 2014

    Danny565 said:

    Speedy said:

    An interesting analysis to read,it suggests that moderate centrists are a minority of the electorate:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/29/opinion/nothing-in-moderation.html?ref=opinion&_r=1

    59% hold extreme views on Taxes, while 49% hold extreme views on the rest of the issues, also:

    "In a separate study, Ahler and Broockman sought to determine whether voters adopted extreme positions in surveys because there were no consequences, whereas in the real world of governing, these same voters might prefer their elected officials to take more moderate stands. This proved not to be the case"

    This explains the rise of left wing populism in scotland and right wing populism in england, people actually want it.

    Social conservatism/economic socialism is the way forward. The political elites stubbornly clinging to the "centre ground" theory that they've staked their careers on will be the last to accept it, obviously.
    Do you have one example, just one, where 'economic socialism' has been successful in the medium to long term?
    My and my family's life is an example. If post-war socialism hadn't helped my parents go from council houses to the middle class then God knows where I'd be.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    isam said:

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    To use the vernacular Ukip have just had their rear ends kicked in South Yorkshire, contrary to expectations. I suspect they will perform somewhat better in Rochester in the borough of Medway

    UKIP did increase their share of the vote by 20%,

    UKIPs failure was to get the protest vote out. Labour got their postal votes out and didn't need to do anymore.

    And that is the lesson for today. Its easy to saw you will vote UKIP its another matter actually getting to the voting booth and putting the cross in their box.
    The lesson is that the Lib Dem vote in Sheffield won it for them
    So there's lots of Lib Dems? I thought people said they didn't stand because they would lose their deposit.
    19 LD votes were enough and 19 votes is also a lost deposit.
    Ok thanks. Of course that implies you think that UKIP would have got a large enough majority of 2nd preferences to overcome Labours 18% lead.
    In any case ISAM disagrees with you:
    "They got 53% in Sheffield Hallam & 41% in Sheffield Central in 2010 while coming 1st or 2nd in every Sheffield seat, so yes there are lots of them" (LibDems)
    We don't know how many LD are left since 2010.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    How times have changed. It seems like only yesterday that the PBKinnocks were massaging themselves silly over photos of Dave and his pint of Guinness, or Osborne weeping at a funeral.

    Did they? Pasties on stations and daughters in pubs, perhaps, and even the Bullingdon shot if you go back far enough, but Guinness?
    Some here expelled so much fluid over 'that pint', it's a miracle they weren't hospitalised with dehydration.
    Don't forget Dave's visit to Morrisons.
    tim shrieking his little head off over Dave at the fish counter.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Hmmm, on Betfair someone just matched Con @8.2

    Which give mere moments ago you could get 17.5 means either a mug has just punted or...
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    Third time lucky for Full Confidence Cameron, then.

    No doubt this will be knocked off the agenda by the PBTory/SamCoates/Guido scoop "man gives money to homeless person".
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    There are probably a fair few Greens that would have been Lib Dems five years ago, especially among the student population.

    Those people had no one other than Labour to go to on that four-person shortlist.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    isam said:

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    To use the vernacular Ukip have just had their rear ends kicked in South Yorkshire, contrary to expectations. I suspect they will perform somewhat better in Rochester in the borough of Medway

    UKIP did increase their share of the vote by 20%,

    UKIPs failure was to get the protest vote out. Labour got their postal votes out and didn't need to do anymore.

    And that is the lesson for today. Its easy to saw you will vote UKIP its another matter actually getting to the voting booth and putting the cross in their box.
    The lesson is that the Lib Dem vote in Sheffield won it for them
    So there's lots of Lib Dems? I thought people said they didn't stand because they would lose their deposit.
    19 LD votes were enough and 19 votes is also a lost deposit.
    Ok thanks. Of course that implies you think that UKIP would have got a large enough majority of 2nd preferences to overcome Labours 18% lead.
    In any case ISAM disagrees with you:
    "They got 53% in Sheffield Hallam & 41% in Sheffield Central in 2010 while coming 1st or 2nd in every Sheffield seat, so yes there are lots of them" (LibDems)
    We don't know how many LD are left since 2010.
    OK, but ISAM blamed them for UKIP's failure in the Police Commisioner election.
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