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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Survation Rochester poll will be published here after 6pm

This will be the third public poll since the by election was called and the first two have had UKIP in the lead by reasonable margins.

Read the full story here

Ishmael_X

Sorry, I only do Lord Ashcroft's polls of the marginals.

AndyJS

Betfair, Rochester:

UKIP 1.08
Con 13
Lab 85

http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.115707446

Morris_Dancer

One suspects it'll be as purple as an asphyxiated clanger.

Pulpstar

UKIP 45 Con 30 Lab 15 perhaps.

AlastairMeeks

The fact that there have been no huge movements in the Betfair price suggests that it's showing a similar picture to previous polls.

Pulpstar

antifrank said:

The fact that there have been no huge movements in the Betfair price suggests that it's showing a similar picture to previous polls.

Quite... someone always knows, and someone always tells.

AndyJS

Pulpstar said:

UKIP 45 Con 30 Lab 15 perhaps.

Given the national polls recently, you'd expect UKIP to be doing slightly better in this poll compared to the first two.

AlastairMeeks

Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes · 1m1 minute ago
OH NO. HERE WE GO AGAIN. pic.twitter.com/KdQPqdzrrU

Pulpstar

antifrank said:

Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes · 1m1 minute ago
OH NO. HERE WE GO AGAIN. pic.twitter.com/KdQPqdzrrU

That looks like a 2 pence piece to me. He could at least have given her a fiver or something, and perhaps LOOKED HER IN THE FACE !

Pulpstar

AndyJS said:

Pulpstar said:

UKIP 45 Con 30 Lab 15 perhaps.

Given the national polls recently, you'd expect UKIP to be doing slightly better in this poll compared to the first two.

UKIP 45-49 is what I want from a betting PoV.

TGOHF

Lab 85s - oh dear.

Kipper 1.08 - 1.11

Con 10.5 - 14

Spready..

Hugh

antifrank said:

Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes · 1m1 minute ago
OH NO. HERE WE GO AGAIN. pic.twitter.com/KdQPqdzrrU

Lol.

**spontaneous kipper combustion warning**

Grandiose

Pulpstar said:

antifrank said:

Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes · 1m1 minute ago
OH NO. HERE WE GO AGAIN. pic.twitter.com/KdQPqdzrrU

That looks like a 2 pence piece to me. He could at least have given her a fiver or something, and perhaps LOOKED HER IN THE FACE !

So amazingly awkward. If he'd owned the occasion it would be impossible to make a fuss.

Pulpstar

TGOHF said:

Lab 85s - oh dear.

Kipper 1.08 - 1.11

Con 10.5 - 14

Spready..

Labour's performance in Rochester is about as relevant as the Tories was in South Yorkshire today.

i.e. Not very at all.

I suspect a Newark squeeze is in order. But UKIP will win this (Obv) not the Conservatives.

rottenborough

antifrank said:

Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes · 1m1 minute ago
OH NO. HERE WE GO AGAIN. pic.twitter.com/KdQPqdzrrU

Not convinced Ed's done anything wrong here.

TGOHF

Pulpstar said:

antifrank said:

Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes · 1m1 minute ago
OH NO. HERE WE GO AGAIN. pic.twitter.com/KdQPqdzrrU

That looks like a 2 pence piece to me. He could at least have given her a fiver or something, and perhaps LOOKED HER IN THE FACE !

Core vote campaigning ?

Pulpstar

rottenborough said:

antifrank said:

Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes · 1m1 minute ago
OH NO. HERE WE GO AGAIN. pic.twitter.com/KdQPqdzrrU

Not convinced Ed's done anything wrong here.

He hasn't, except his body language looks like he's just trod in dogshit.

Why not have a quick chat with the lady, give her a fiver (Or nothing at all (But donate to a charity later)) - GOLDEN opportunity for some positive spin.

TGOHF

rottenborough said:

antifrank said:

Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes · 1m1 minute ago
OH NO. HERE WE GO AGAIN. pic.twitter.com/KdQPqdzrrU

Not convinced Ed's done anything wrong here.

I thought it was the Labour manifesto - turns out its just a snap from a journo....

rottenborough

Pulpstar said:

rottenborough said:

antifrank said:

Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes · 1m1 minute ago
OH NO. HERE WE GO AGAIN. pic.twitter.com/KdQPqdzrrU

Not convinced Ed's done anything wrong here.

He hasn't, except his body language looks like he's just trod in dogshit.

Why not have a quick chat with the lady, give her a fiver (Or nothing at all (But donate to a charity later)) - GOLDEN opportunity for some positive spin.

But we've only still a single still - unless there's video coming too. You can't tell a great deal from a single photo as to what really took place.

Danny565

FPT

antifrank said:

Sean_F said:

Danny565 said:

The contrast between results in Sheffield confirm a trend that was seen in the European elections: UKIP generally do much worse in major cities than they do in working-class towns, even when said cities are very white and working-class.

The distinction between towns and cities can be a bit arbitrary. Places like Rotherham, Dudley, Oldham and Doncaster, are big enough to be cities.

I think Danny565 is referring to Core Cities. I wrote about these in the summer:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/core-cities-labours-reservoir.html

Given a second chance, I'd definitely want to revisit this piece now to consider how UKIP fit into this.

Yes, very good article and I would agree with it. There was a VERY noticeable difference between the results in the major/core cities (I take the point that the distinction between towns and cities can be arbitrary so I'll go with your definition of core city), and towns and smaller "cities" with similar demographics. Labour obviously boomed in London while they were up by 20% in Liverpool and Manchester, up by 15% in Birmingham and Bristol - at the same time as they were barely stumbling up by 5% on their dismal 2009 performance in some of the working-class towns in the Midlands and South (which unfortunately for them are where some of the key marginals are located). And strong Labour increases usually coincided with mediocre UKIP performances, again even in parts of cities which were very white/working-class,

I have a theory for this that, in big cities, even for people whose own lives are poor, the situation just doesn't feel as hopeless. A lot of people who live in working-class towns are really angry about things that might seem quite "trivial". When I was doing some leafletting/canvassing in my town up until a year ago (a safeish Labour seat in Cheshire), while most UKIP voters definitely were angry about immigration, another thing that really bugged them was how all the shops in the town centre were boarded up, which they saw as a sign that the government was just leaving them to rot away and didn't care about them. Maybe the fact that in cities, even if you live in a very poor neighbourhood, the fact that there'll usually be some signs of life within walking distance means the situation doesn't seem as terminally hopeless.

TGOHF

2p is a bit tight mind you...

rottenborough

I guess Alan Johnson would have picked up his guitar and done some busking for her.

PAW

Is it really a single coin? Perhaps it is a £2?

TGOHF

PAW said:

Is it really a single coin? Perhaps it is a £2?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B1SS5S6IMAAj9jg.jpg

JohnLoony

Result according to Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Yorkshire_Police_and_Crime_Commissioner_by-election,_2014

Lab 74,060 50.02%
UKIP 46,883 31.66%
Con 18,536 12.52%
ED 8,583 5.80%

AndyJS

"Rochester by-election: Tory malcontents are whipping up a storm
As the Rochester by-election looms, the Prime Minister’s critics are preparing for their moment of destiny"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11199860/Rochester-by-election-Tory-malcontents-are-whipping-up-a-storm.html

isam

Labour should be thankful that the Lib Dems and Greens didn't field candidates in the SYPCC.

TheWatcher

antifrank said:

Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes · 1m1 minute ago
OH NO. HERE WE GO AGAIN. pic.twitter.com/KdQPqdzrrU

Here you go electorally useful foreign looking person, I'm giving you 2 pence, but with as little human interaction as possible. What an oddball tight wad.

Great comments. 'Was he giving her money for a bacon roll?' , or 'stealing the money'.

PAW

TGOHF - 2pence?

MarkHopkins

TGOHF said:

PAW said:

Is it really a single coin? Perhaps it is a £2?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B1SS5S6IMAAj9jg.jpg

Is he taking something out?

Pulpstar

TGOHF said:

PAW said:

Is it really a single coin? Perhaps it is a £2?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B1SS5S6IMAAj9jg.jpg

That's a 2 pence piece.

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

rottenborough said:

antifrank said:

Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes · 1m1 minute ago
OH NO. HERE WE GO AGAIN. pic.twitter.com/KdQPqdzrrU

Not convinced Ed's done anything wrong here.

He hasn't, except his body language looks like he's just trod in dogshit.

Why not have a quick chat with the lady, give her a fiver (Or nothing at all (But donate to a charity later)) - GOLDEN opportunity for some positive spin.

But we've only still a single still - unless there's video coming too. You can't tell a great deal from a single photo as to what really took place.

Do you think he's going to get a fair 'trial' in the media on this. Alot of the press utterly loathe Mr Miliband is the conclusion I've come to (Probably relating to Leveson, or the gushing love alot of them seem to have for Banana Man), so a drip drip drip line of attack (Encouraged by Lynton Crosby) is going on and has made him look completely unfit for the job of PM. This will only add to the narrative

I can see the attack lines now: "Labour's 2p tokenism"

TGOHF

PAW said:

TGOHF - 2pence?

Well there is a cost of living crisis - perhaps Ed can't stretch to 5p.

Sunil_Prasannan

Grandiose said:

Pulpstar said:

antifrank said:

Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes · 1m1 minute ago
OH NO. HERE WE GO AGAIN. pic.twitter.com/KdQPqdzrrU

That looks like a 2 pence piece to me. He could at least have given her a fiver or something, and perhaps LOOKED HER IN THE FACE !

So amazingly awkward.

So amazingly Edward!

state_go_away

Rather sad to see the war loan paid down today . I like historical oddities like the Whig party reforming and war loans!!

CopperSulphate

FPT How do Labour rationalise the fact they are getting a much higher proportion of postal votes than at the polling station?

HurstLlama

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

rottenborough said:

antifrank said:

Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes · 1m1 minute ago
OH NO. HERE WE GO AGAIN. pic.twitter.com/KdQPqdzrrU

Not convinced Ed's done anything wrong here.

He hasn't, except his body language looks like he's just trod in dogshit.

Why not have a quick chat with the lady, give her a fiver (Or nothing at all (But donate to a charity later)) - GOLDEN opportunity for some positive spin.

But we've only still a single still - unless there's video coming too. You can't tell a great deal from a single photo as to what really took place.

Mr. Borough, you maybe right maybe a full action reply would show Milliband as a truly caring person who wasn't actually, under extreme embarrassment, giving a beggar a 2p piece and desperate for the encounter to be over as soon as as possible. However, that is what the one photo seems to show and I think we are entitled to take it at face value.

rottenborough

Pulpstar said:

TGOHF said:

PAW said:

Is it really a single coin? Perhaps it is a £2?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B1SS5S6IMAAj9jg.jpg

That's a 2 pence piece.

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

rottenborough said:

antifrank said:

Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes · 1m1 minute ago
OH NO. HERE WE GO AGAIN. pic.twitter.com/KdQPqdzrrU

Not convinced Ed's done anything wrong here.

He hasn't, except his body language looks like he's just trod in dogshit.

Why not have a quick chat with the lady, give her a fiver (Or nothing at all (But donate to a charity later)) - GOLDEN opportunity for some positive spin.

But we've only still a single still - unless there's video coming too. You can't tell a great deal from a single photo as to what really took place.

Do you think he's going to get a fair 'trial' in the media on this. Alot of the press utterly loathe Mr Miliband is the conclusion I've come to (Probably relating to Leveson, or the gushing love alot of them seem to have for Banana Man), so a drip drip drip line of attack (Encouraged by Lynton Crosby) is going on and has made him look completely unfit for the job of PM. This will only add to the narrative

I can see the attack lines now: "Labour's 2p tokenism"

No, I don't think he will get a fair hearing in the media.

TheWatcher

Pulpstar said:

TGOHF said:

PAW said:

Is it really a single coin? Perhaps it is a £2?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B1SS5S6IMAAj9jg.jpg

That's a 2 pence piece.

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

rottenborough said:

antifrank said:

Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes · 1m1 minute ago
OH NO. HERE WE GO AGAIN. pic.twitter.com/KdQPqdzrrU

Not convinced Ed's done anything wrong here.

He hasn't, except his body language looks like he's just trod in dogshit.

Why not have a quick chat with the lady, give her a fiver (Or nothing at all (But donate to a charity later)) - GOLDEN opportunity for some positive spin.

But we've only still a single still - unless there's video coming too. You can't tell a great deal from a single photo as to what really took place.

Do you think he's going to get a fair 'trial' in the media on this. Alot of the press utterly loathe Mr Miliband is the conclusion I've come to (Probably relating to Leveson, or the gushing love alot of them seem to have for Banana Man), so a drip drip drip line of attack (Encouraged by Lynton Crosby) is going on and has made him look completely unfit for the job of PM. This will only add to the narrative

I can see the attack lines now: "Labour's 2p tokenism"

Yeah, Lynton Crosby forced Ed to pose like a twerp.

TGOHF

That beggar will be found to be a professional beggar driving a BMW X5 or something.

Pulpstar

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

TGOHF said:

PAW said:

Is it really a single coin? Perhaps it is a £2?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B1SS5S6IMAAj9jg.jpg

That's a 2 pence piece.

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

rottenborough said:

antifrank said:

Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes · 1m1 minute ago
OH NO. HERE WE GO AGAIN. pic.twitter.com/KdQPqdzrrU

Not convinced Ed's done anything wrong here.

He hasn't, except his body language looks like he's just trod in dogshit.

Why not have a quick chat with the lady, give her a fiver (Or nothing at all (But donate to a charity later)) - GOLDEN opportunity for some positive spin.

But we've only still a single still - unless there's video coming too. You can't tell a great deal from a single photo as to what really took place.

Do you think he's going to get a fair 'trial' in the media on this. Alot of the press utterly loathe Mr Miliband is the conclusion I've come to (Probably relating to Leveson, or the gushing love alot of them seem to have for Banana Man), so a drip drip drip line of attack (Encouraged by Lynton Crosby) is going on and has made him look completely unfit for the job of PM. This will only add to the narrative

I can see the attack lines now: "Labour's 2p tokenism"

No, I don't think he will get a fair hearing in the media.

I actually feel quite sorry for him, personally I don't think he'd be too bad a Prime Minister. But I don't think he's convincing anyone else at this moment in time.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Sulphate, the magic of diversity?

Speedy

AndyJS said:

"Rochester by-election: Tory malcontents are whipping up a storm
As the Rochester by-election looms, the Prime Minister’s critics are preparing for their moment of destiny"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11199860/Rochester-by-election-Tory-malcontents-are-whipping-up-a-storm.html

Well well well, a no confidence vote is on the cards and David Davis and Liam Fox are on leadership maneuvers:
"Some Cabinet ministers say the 46 letters required to trigger a confidence vote would materialise quite quickly after a Rochester loss, and indeed Mr Cameron’s own aides have told him rebels expect as many as 70."

chestnut

Ed Miliband giving money to Romanian (?) Immigrant Beggar.

It's got to be fake, surely? It cannot be real.

What is the man's game plan?

Pulpstar

TheWatcher said:

Pulpstar said:

TGOHF said:

PAW said:

Is it really a single coin? Perhaps it is a £2?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B1SS5S6IMAAj9jg.jpg

That's a 2 pence piece.

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

rottenborough said:

antifrank said:

Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes · 1m1 minute ago
OH NO. HERE WE GO AGAIN. pic.twitter.com/KdQPqdzrrU

Not convinced Ed's done anything wrong here.

He hasn't, except his body language looks like he's just trod in dogshit.

Why not have a quick chat with the lady, give her a fiver (Or nothing at all (But donate to a charity later)) - GOLDEN opportunity for some positive spin.

But we've only still a single still - unless there's video coming too. You can't tell a great deal from a single photo as to what really took place.

Do you think he's going to get a fair 'trial' in the media on this. Alot of the press utterly loathe Mr Miliband is the conclusion I've come to (Probably relating to Leveson, or the gushing love alot of them seem to have for Banana Man), so a drip drip drip line of attack (Encouraged by Lynton Crosby) is going on and has made him look completely unfit for the job of PM. This will only add to the narrative

I can see the attack lines now: "Labour's 2p tokenism"

Yeah, Lynton Crosby forced Ed to pose like a twerp.

No - but he is making Crosby's life very very easy for him.

rottenborough

Beggargate

Sunil_Prasannan

chestnut said:

Ed Miliband giving money to Romanian (?) Immigrant Beggar.

It's got to be fake, surely? It cannot be real.

What is the man's game plan?

Or else his PR team have been heavily infiltrated by Tories and/or even Kippers!

AndyJS

2010 general election, South Yorkshire:

Lab 42.01%
LD 23.74%
Con 20.57%
BNP 5.90%
UKIP 4.35%
ED 1.15%
Greens 0.59%
Others 1.67%

Combined Lab/LD share: 65.75%

Lab share today (with no LD candidate): 50.02%

Speedy

On the S.Yorkshire PPC, the writing was on the wall for a Labour win when the turnout numbers were released.
Since only party members bother to vote in PPC elections Labour won't have a problem.

TGOHF

2p or not 2p ?

Or is Ed more Shylock than Hamlet ?

Scott_P

@MrHarryCole: Ed Miliband, July 2014: "more to politics than the photo-op".

isam

AndyJS said:

2010 general election, South Yorkshire:

Lab 42.01%
LD 23.74%
Con 20.57%
BNP 5.90%
UKIP 4.35%
ED 1.15%
Greens 0.59%
Others 1.67%

Combined Lab/LD share: 65.75%

Lab share today (with no LD candidate): 50.02%

The effect of no Lib Dem candidate, particularly in Sheffield, will be magnificently understated on here, have no doubt about that

AndyJS

O/T:

"A paediatrician from Greater Manchester has admitted grooming children online and sexually abusing young boys.
Dr Raza Laskar, 31, from Ashton-under-Lyne in Tameside, also pleaded guilty to possessing images of abuse."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-29852856

AlastairMeeks

Speedy said:

AndyJS said:

"Rochester by-election: Tory malcontents are whipping up a storm
As the Rochester by-election looms, the Prime Minister’s critics are preparing for their moment of destiny"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11199860/Rochester-by-election-Tory-malcontents-are-whipping-up-a-storm.html

Well well well, a no confidence vote is on the cards and David Davis and Liam Fox are on leadership maneuvers:
"Some Cabinet ministers say the 46 letters required to trigger a confidence vote would materialise quite quickly after a Rochester loss, and indeed Mr Cameron’s own aides have told him rebels expect as many as 70."

It's a bit of a muddle of an article. All we really learn is that there are some grumpy people on the right of the Conservative party planning Things, but Ms Hardman doesn't really have any more of a clue than the rest of us what those Things might be and it's far from clear that the grumpy right-wing Conservatives do either.

Pulpstar

Speedy said:

AndyJS said:

"Rochester by-election: Tory malcontents are whipping up a storm
As the Rochester by-election looms, the Prime Minister’s critics are preparing for their moment of destiny"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11199860/Rochester-by-election-Tory-malcontents-are-whipping-up-a-storm.html

Well well well, a no confidence vote is on the cards and David Davis and Liam Fox are on leadership maneuvers:
"Some Cabinet ministers say the 46 letters required to trigger a confidence vote would materialise quite quickly after a Rochester loss, and indeed Mr Cameron’s own aides have told him rebels expect as many as 70."

Dave wins a confidence vote I think, he's pretty good when his back is to the wall.

CD13

rottenborough,

"No, I don't think he will get a fair hearing in the media."

It could be worse. Ukip could put out posters with "Labour back in, lock up your daughters."

Kinnock got quite a battering too and should have won in 92. I don't really think it was hubris, it was more the the voters remembering Militant and not the man who faced up to them.

Ed has a bigger problem - himself.

TheWatcher

Speedy said:

AndyJS said:

"Rochester by-election: Tory malcontents are whipping up a storm
As the Rochester by-election looms, the Prime Minister’s critics are preparing for their moment of destiny"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11199860/Rochester-by-election-Tory-malcontents-are-whipping-up-a-storm.html

Well well well, a no confidence vote is on the cards and David Davis and Liam Fox are on leadership maneuvers:
"Some Cabinet ministers say the 46 letters required to trigger a confidence vote would materialise quite quickly after a Rochester loss, and indeed Mr Cameron’s own aides have told him rebels expect as many as 70."

Liam 'Resignation' Fox. Where's Adam Werrity these days?

Morris_Dancer

If Conservative backbenchers are absolutely desperate to commit self-harm there's not much Cameron can do to stop them. Of course, a large part of the reason why this situation has been reached is because he was complacent about UKIP and contemptuous to a large part of what should be bedrock Conservative support.

Mr. Flashman (deceased), 2p or not 2p is rather good.

CopperSulphate

isam said:

Labour should be thankful that the Lib Dems and Greens didn't field candidates in the SYPCC.

Probably to stop UKIP getting in.

DecrepitJohnL

Pulpstar said:

Speedy said:

AndyJS said:

"Rochester by-election: Tory malcontents are whipping up a storm
As the Rochester by-election looms, the Prime Minister’s critics are preparing for their moment of destiny"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11199860/Rochester-by-election-Tory-malcontents-are-whipping-up-a-storm.html

Well well well, a no confidence vote is on the cards and David Davis and Liam Fox are on leadership maneuvers:
"Some Cabinet ministers say the 46 letters required to trigger a confidence vote would materialise quite quickly after a Rochester loss, and indeed Mr Cameron’s own aides have told him rebels expect as many as 70."

Dave wins a confidence vote I think, he's pretty good when his back is to the wall.

As with Ed Miliband for Labour, where is the alternative? Someone who was trounced last time, someone no longer in parliament, or an unpopular (Shadow) Chancellor.

chestnut

Survation Poll commissioned by Unite

Say no more.

CopperSulphate

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Sulphate, the magic of diversity?

How does diversity explain it exactly? I mean from Labour's point of view.

Danny565

isam said:

AndyJS said:

2010 general election, South Yorkshire:

Lab 42.01%
LD 23.74%
Con 20.57%
BNP 5.90%
UKIP 4.35%
ED 1.15%
Greens 0.59%
Others 1.67%

Combined Lab/LD share: 65.75%

Lab share today (with no LD candidate): 50.02%

The effect of no Lib Dem candidate, particularly in Sheffield, will be magnificently understated on here, have no doubt about that

The Lib Dems are dead in Sheffield.

I foresee them having potentially the biggest drop ever seen in any constituency in British electoral history in Sheffield Central next time (30%+).

HurstLlama

Looking closely at the blow-up of the coin in Milibands hand it may not be a 2p piece, it might be a token such as one buys for a a car-wash (there seems to be a suggestion of a groove across the centre). If that is the case then the financial value of Miliband's generosity changes completely. In stead of giving the beggar 2p he might actually have given her the means to get her car washed, possibly worth several pounds.

The bacon butty event I ignored, it was silly and who hasn't occasionally looked stupid when eating hot finger food. This one, however, shows Miliband in an unplanned interaction with a poor person on the street a much more revealing situation as far as his character goes. Even though he must have known the cameras were on him he comes across as, well, a nasty piece of work who doesn't give a shit.

TGOHF

Morris_Dancer said:

If Conservative backbenchers are absolutely desperate to commit self-harm there's not much Cameron can do to stop them. Of course, a large part of the reason why this situation has been reached is because he was complacent about UKIP and contemptuous to a large part of what should be bedrock Conservative support.

Mr. Flashman (deceased), 2p or not 2p is rather good.

So good Guido's nicked it !

Richard_Nabavi

antifrank said:

It's a bit of a muddle of an article. All we really learn is that there are some grumpy people on the right of the Conservative party planning Things, but Ms Hardman doesn't really have any more of a clue than the rest of us what those Things might be and it's far from clear that the grumpy right-wing Conservatives do either.

And it's not exactly news that DD, Liam Fox and Owen Paterson are not the greatest of Cameron fans.

isam

Danny565 said:

isam said:

AndyJS said:

2010 general election, South Yorkshire:

Lab 42.01%
LD 23.74%
Con 20.57%
BNP 5.90%
UKIP 4.35%
ED 1.15%
Greens 0.59%
Others 1.67%

Combined Lab/LD share: 65.75%

Lab share today (with no LD candidate): 50.02%

The effect of no Lib Dem candidate, particularly in Sheffield, will be magnificently understated on here, have no doubt about that

The Lib Dems are dead in Sheffield.

I foresee them having potentially the biggest drop ever seen in any constituency in British electoral history in Sheffield Central next time (30%+).

Where do you think their votes will go?

philiph

rottenborough said:

Beggargate

Glad to see Ed supporting 'The Big Society'

Speedy

Survation has put up a teaser:
http://survation.com/rochester-strood-by-election-poll-survation-for-unite/

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Flashman (deceased), my sympathies. Some bounder called 'Sean Thomas' or somesuch once nicked my 'UKIPalypse' line [he did send a tweet or two about my books afterwards, in fairness].

Mr. Llama, that's unfair to nasty people. Lots of psychopaths (practically all of them) are capable of wit and glib superficial charm. On the plus side, this means we can be confident Miliband is not a psychopath.

Mr. Sulphate, because of the wondrous diverse and intriguing political cultures that have been imported and flourish in certain hubs of exciting multi-culturalism. Like Tower Hamlets.

isam

HurstLlama said:

Looking closely at the blow-up of the coin in Milibands hand it may not be a 2p piece, it might be a token such as one buys for a a car-wash (there seems to be a suggestion of a groove across the centre). If that is the case then the financial value of Miliband's generosity changes completely. In stead of giving the beggar 2p he might actually have given her the means to get her car washed, possibly worth several pounds.

The bacon butty event I ignored, it was silly and who hasn't occasionally looked stupid when eating hot finger food. This one, however, shows Miliband in an unplanned interaction with a poor person on the street a much more revealing situation as far as his character goes. Even though he must have known the cameras were on him he comes across as, well, a nasty piece of work who doesn't give a shit.

Do you really think that?!

Honestly these awkward photo's probably reveal less than nothing about him

Danny565

isam said:

Danny565 said:

isam said:

AndyJS said:

2010 general election, South Yorkshire:

Lab 42.01%
LD 23.74%
Con 20.57%
BNP 5.90%
UKIP 4.35%
ED 1.15%
Greens 0.59%
Others 1.67%

Combined Lab/LD share: 65.75%

Lab share today (with no LD candidate): 50.02%

The effect of no Lib Dem candidate, particularly in Sheffield, will be magnificently understated on here, have no doubt about that

The Lib Dems are dead in Sheffield.

I foresee them having potentially the biggest drop ever seen in any constituency in British electoral history in Sheffield Central next time (30%+).

Where do you think their votes will go?

Probably a mixture of Labour, the Greens and UKIP (though the latter probably won't do spectacularly in this constituency I would guess).

dr_spyn

If you are prepared for Halloween, & ready for all the trick or treaters, remember fisherman's Friends are nut free.

Luckyguy1983

That beggar appears to be a recent immigrant. This phenomenon seemed to start nearly 10 years ago -I've always been somewhat confused why someone would come all the way to the UK to be destitute. Apparently selling The Big Issue counts as an occupation and therefore qualifies the seller for housing benefit. Not sure about outright begging, but certainly it is not to be encouraged.

Scott_P

@IsabelHardman: Labour sends official begging line: 'It was a handful of coins, we can't say exactly how much but a handful of money he had in his pocket.'

PAW

isam - surely you smile when you give?

CopperSulphate

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Flashman (deceased), my sympathies. Some bounder called 'Sean Thomas' or somesuch once nicked my 'UKIPalypse' line [he did send a tweet or two about my books afterwards, in fairness].

Mr. Llama, that's unfair to nasty people. Lots of psychopaths (practically all of them) are capable of wit and glib superficial charm. On the plus side, this means we can be confident Miliband is not a psychopath.

Mr. Sulphate, because of the wondrous diverse and intriguing political cultures that have been imported and flourish in certain hubs of exciting multi-culturalism. Like Tower Hamlets.

So Labour themselves admit that it's basically voter fraud? I find that hard to believe.

TGOHF

Luckyguy1983 said:

That beggar appears to be a recent immigrant. This phenomenon seemed to start nearly 10 years ago -I've always been somewhat confused why someone would come all the way to the UK to be destitute. Apparently selling The Big Issue counts as an occupation and therefore qualifies the seller for housing benefit. Not sure about outright begging, but certainly it is not to be encouraged.

Highly irresponsible - like feeding ducks.

The_Last_Boy_Scout

To use the vernacular Ukip have just had their rear ends kicked in South Yorkshire, contrary to expectations. I suspect they will perform somewhat better in Rochester in the borough of Medway

AlastairMeeks

It looks like a 50p to me, for what it's worth.

EDIT which is of course 50p.

Speedy

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

To use the vernacular Ukip have just had their rear ends kicked in South Yorkshire, contrary to expectations. I suspect they will perform somewhat better in Rochester in the borough of Medway

The general public did not vote in the PPC election, it was party members only.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Sulphate, not a Labour Party spokesman, but I'm pretty sure that is not their official line.

The_Last_Boy_Scout

Am I the only one who doesn't "get" the Ed photograph?

HurstLlama

Morris_Dancer said:

If Conservative backbenchers are absolutely desperate to commit self-harm there's not much Cameron can do to stop them. Of course, a large part of the reason why this situation has been reached is because he was complacent about UKIP and contemptuous to a large part of what should be bedrock Conservative support.

Mr. Flashman (deceased), 2p or not 2p is rather good.

I agree Mr Dancer there is not much that that Cameron can do now to undo the harm he has caused over the past four years. It is not all lost he can promise what he will do next time, except, as the Speccie reports today, very few people, at home or abroad, still believe a word he says.

Scott_P

@wallaceme: Perhaps only Ed Miliband could balls up giving money to a beggar.

CopperSulphate

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Sulphate, not a Labour Party spokesman, but I'm pretty sure that is not their official line.

Well exactly, but I'm wondering what their official line actually is. I know it involves saying that of course it isn't fraud, but I've never heard any other explanation.

Any Labour supporters know what the innocent explanation for the difference is that we're all missing?

AlastairMeeks

Richard_Nabavi said:

antifrank said:

It's a bit of a muddle of an article. All we really learn is that there are some grumpy people on the right of the Conservative party planning Things, but Ms Hardman doesn't really have any more of a clue than the rest of us what those Things might be and it's far from clear that the grumpy right-wing Conservatives do either.

And it's not exactly news that DD, Liam Fox and Owen Paterson are not the greatest of Cameron fans.

Anyway, if I were a rightwing Conservative who hated David Cameron, I'd want him to own the likely upcoming election defeat. I wouldn't want to be accused of contributing to it.

My own guess is that there will be some harrumphing and possibly a few more defections from the impatient, but that the SS Cameron will sail on to the general election.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Scout, it's the juxtaposition of charitable giving with the avoidance of eye contact and possibly paltry amount which speaks of insincerity.

It's just another awkward photo, really. Nothing major, and certainly not the first.

And it could be worse. It's not as bad as Gordon Brown smiling.

The_Last_Boy_Scout

iSamuel - it is time for Ukip to be gracious in defeat. Their day will no doubt come. But today was not that day

Speedy

antifrank said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

antifrank said:

It's a bit of a muddle of an article. All we really learn is that there are some grumpy people on the right of the Conservative party planning Things, but Ms Hardman doesn't really have any more of a clue than the rest of us what those Things might be and it's far from clear that the grumpy right-wing Conservatives do either.

And it's not exactly news that DD, Liam Fox and Owen Paterson are not the greatest of Cameron fans.

Anyway, if I were a rightwing Conservative who hated David Cameron, I'd want him to own the likely upcoming election defeat. I wouldn't want to be accused of contributing to it.

My own guess is that there will be some harrumphing and possibly a few more defections from the impatient, but that the SS Cameron will sail on to the general election.

How can a sunken ship sail?

TheWatcher

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

Am I the only one who doesn't "get" the Ed photograph?

No. Bobajob doesn't get it either.

dr_spyn

Uh uh. I know what you're thinking. "Did he give £2 or only 2p?" Well to tell you the truth in all this excitement I kinda lost track myself. But being this is a Nikon Camera, the most powerful camera in the world and would blow you reputation clean off, you've gotta ask yourself one question: "Do I feel lucky?" Well, do ya, punk?

In next week's news Ed joins the Monty Python Cast in a seasonal re-enactment of Upper Class Twit of The Year's third event, kicking the beggar.

HurstLlama

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

Am I the only one who doesn't "get" the Ed photograph?

Probably

TheScreamingEagles

I don't know why but beggargate has reminded me of The IT Crowd and Coffee Toss Tramp Bitch (and the tiny barista hit by a van with comedy breasts)

isam

Ladbrokes have responded to Labour's win in their heartlands by...

Cutting UKIP for Rother Valley from 8s to 5s

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/rother-valley/winning-party

Sean_F

Danny565 said:

FPT

antifrank said:

Sean_F said:

Danny565 said:

The contrast between results in Sheffield confirm a trend that was seen in the European elections: UKIP generally do much worse in major cities than they do in working-class towns, even when said cities are very white and working-class.

The distinction between towns and cities can be a bit arbitrary. Places like Rotherham, Dudley, Oldham and Doncaster, are big enough to be cities.

I think Danny565 is referring to Core Cities. I wrote about these in the summer:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/core-cities-labours-reservoir.html

Given a second chance, I'd definitely want to revisit this piece now to consider how UKIP fit into this.

Yes, very good article and I would agree with it. There was a VERY noticeable difference between the results in the major/core cities (I take the point that the distinction between towns and cities can be arbitrary so I'll go with your definition of core city), and towns and smaller "cities" with similar demographics. Labour obviously boomed in London while they were up by 20% in Liverpool and Manchester, up by 15% in Birmingham and Bristol - at the same time as they were barely stumbling up by 5% on their dismal 2009 performance in some of the working-class towns in the Midlands and South (which unfortunately for them are where some of the key marginals are located). And strong Labour increases usually coincided with mediocre UKIP performances, again even in parts of cities which were very white/working-class,

I have a theory for this that, in big cities, even for people whose own lives are poor, the situation just doesn't feel as hopeless. A lot of people who live in working-class towns are really angry about things that might seem quite "trivial". When I was doing some leafletting/canvassing in my town up until a year ago (a safeish Labour seat in Cheshire), while most UKIP voters definitely were angry about immigration, another thing that really bugged them was how all the shops in the town centre were boarded up, which they saw as a sign that the government was just leaving them to rot away and didn't care about them. Maybe the fact that in cities, even if you live in a very poor neighbourhood, the fact that there'll usually be some signs of life within walking distance means the situation doesn't seem as terminally hopeless.

The problem for Labour is that there's not much left for them to win in core cities. Performing strongly there means piling up even bigger majorities in seats they already hold.

The_Last_Boy_Scout

Morris

Thank you for your reply. It simply looked like he was giving her money and walking away to me. But okay, I can see that others may see it differently to me

Speedy

TheScreamingEagles said:

I don't know why but beggargate has reminded me of The IT Crowd and Coffee Toss Tramp Bitch (and the tiny barista hit by a van with comedy breasts)

The internet is after Ed for quite some time now.

Sean_F

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

To use the vernacular Ukip have just had their rear ends kicked in South Yorkshire, contrary to expectations. I suspect they will perform somewhat better in Rochester in the borough of Medway

UKIP did increase their share of the vote by 20%,

Pulpstar

isam said:

Ladbrokes have responded to Labour's win in their heartlands by...

Cutting UKIP for Rother Valley from 8s to 5s

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/rother-valley/winning-party

Rotherham proper is too short, Rother Valley was definitely too long:

Analysis by local election results:

Lab UKIP
Anston and Woodsetts 1339 1308
Dinnington 1195 1293
Hellaby 1150 1825
Holderness 1064 1061
Maltby 1183 1120
Rother Vale 1097 1444
Sitwell 1084 1776
Wales 1386 1108

9498 10935 UKIP Price 8-1 (Now 5-1) Rother Valley

Boston Castle 1428 1267
Brinsworth 1651 1611
Keppel 1258 1658
Valley 1387 1572
Rotherham West 1528 1567
Rotherham East 1460 1240
Wingfield 1161 1552

9873 10467 UKIP Price 5-2 Rotherham

I think Rotherham should be around 9-2 and Rother Valley 4-1.

HurstLlama

isam said:

HurstLlama said:

Looking closely at the blow-up of the coin in Milibands hand it may not be a 2p piece, it might be a token such as one buys for a a car-wash (there seems to be a suggestion of a groove across the centre). If that is the case then the financial value of Miliband's generosity changes completely. In stead of giving the beggar 2p he might actually have given her the means to get her car washed, possibly worth several pounds.

The bacon butty event I ignored, it was silly and who hasn't occasionally looked stupid when eating hot finger food. This one, however, shows Miliband in an unplanned interaction with a poor person on the street a much more revealing situation as far as his character goes. Even though he must have known the cameras were on him he comes across as, well, a nasty piece of work who doesn't give a shit.

Do you really think that?!

Honestly these awkward photo's probably reveal less than nothing about him

They may not show him in the most flattering light but, like candid camera, they may show more of him like he actually is. Each to their own. Look at the photo and, ignoring personalities and poiltics, describe to yourself what you see.