There is a case to be made that we should run sound finances and let the markets deal with the rest, and also that the vulnerable in society must be made safe from predatory capitalists. There is also a case for a middle way with both extremes attenuated. It clearly is not your view, but it is one that remains quite a mainstream view in the UK. The LDs will return. At times of economic hardship and austerity the two extremes become more popular than the centre, but when these are over the centre will once again dominate politics.
Again and again on social matters, the Liberal Democrats stick to the idealistic utopian position that they criticise on economic matters. What then happens is the economic realists look around for other parties that are more socialy realistic, while the social utopians look for parties that are more economically utopian.
I think Utopian is a fair description of LibDems, and one of the reasons that at times they have found the difficult compromises of government so uncomfortable.
It is why I remain a LibDem at heart. I accept that I may be a little too idealistic, but I have seen how cynicism and materialism have damaged the fabric of British political and social life.
I even remain optomistic that the British public will see sense, turn its back on fear, suspiscion and xenophobia and start voting LD again (Though even I am not naive enough to expect this next May)!
Socrates' analysis is piercing, perceptive and cogent. Yours is just waffle. It is mellifluously meaningless when it isn't perniciously vapid - "different cultures can live side by side in harmony and learn from each other"??
You know what? I also like apple pie and I am happy to share it with nice people, especially kindly mothers. But I don't use this insight as a philosophical code to unlock the world's problems.
The contrast between the two posts is very telling, and salutary, and not in the way you'd like. The Lib Dems are best put out of their misery and silly people like you need to wise up and find a new way of thinking, and voting.
We can all choose to go through life being selfish, materialistic, cynical and mistrusting; or we can go through life believing that the world can be a better place if we have love for our fellow man in our hearts.
The fact that you do not see this shows how little you understand of religion, despite having blogged on the subject.
Odd thing is, I see the Tory route as the best way to have a chance to be compassionate and fair to the most vulnerable of society.
Murphy has a real difficult task on his hands to beat Findlay in my opinion. He is going to have to try and kill the Blairite image of himself, as well as convincing MSPs that appointing a Westminster politician as Scottish Labour leader is a good idea.
Not just the MSPs but all party members, and the unions too. That's the interesting bit.
Murphy has a real difficult task on his hands to beat Findlay in my opinion. He is going to have to try and kill the Blairite image of himself, as well as convincing MSPs that appointing a Westminster politician as Scottish Labour leader is a good idea.
That is why I think James Kelly is the ideal man for the job. So far though unfortunately only Sarah Boyack has put her name forward, and the nominations close on Friday.
Correction just seen that Murphy will stand too, if it's only him and Boyack, Murphy will win.
Jim Murphy would be by far the best bet for Labour leader in Scotland, along with Ruth Davidson he was by far the star of the NO campaign. I could see him preventing the SNP getting another majority in 2016 and then becoming First Minister in 2020, now Salmond has left the scene Sturgeon will only win 1 more term in my view
Murphy has a real difficult task on his hands to beat Findlay in my opinion. He is going to have to try and kill the Blairite image of himself, as well as convincing MSPs that appointing a Westminster politician as Scottish Labour leader is a good idea.
I forgot to add, it will be interesting to see the voting figures to compare with last time (the election of Ms Lamont) as they will also give some idea of the relative strength of the party in terms of SLAB membership numbers by comparison with 2011 and which way the numbers are heading. I've seen estimates of about 6k (ignoring the TUs) of late, which is less than the Greens, never mind the SNP.
I would expect Jim Murphy to be a very strong favourite now. Frankly the only issue I can see would be a commitment to leave Westminster and come to Holyrood.
If SLAB don't go for him the rumours of self harming will be confirmed.
I'm always bemused by comments like this. Am I missing something? Even leaving aside Murphy's political views (which are not to my taste), in personal style I see someone who comes across on TV as very dull. "Soporific" is a good way to describe his voice. I genuinely don't see what it is that has so many talking about what a great leader he would be.
There is a case to be made that we should run sound finances and let the markets deal with the rest, and also that the vulnerable in society must be made safe from predatory capitalists. There is also a case for a middle way with both extremes attenuated. It clearly is not your view, but it is one that remains quite a mainstream view in the UK. The LDs will return. At times of economic hardship and austerity the two extremes become more popular than the centre, but when these are over the centre will once again dominate politics.
I think Utopian is a fair description of LibDems, and one of the reasons that at times they have found the difficult compromises of government so uncomfortable.
Socrates' analysis is piercing, perceptive and cogent. Yours is just waffle. It is mellifluously meaningless when it isn't perniciously vapid - "different cultures can live side by side in harmony and learn from each other
The contrast between the two posts is very telling, and salutary, and not in the way you'd like. The Lib Dems are best put out of their misery and silly people like you need to wise up and find a new way of thinking, and voting.
We can all choose to go through life being selfish, materialistic, cynical and mistrusting; or we can go through life believing that the world can be a better place if we have love for our fellow man in our hearts.
The fact that you do not see this shows how little you understand of religion, despite having blogged on the subject.
Surely the world needs both dreamers and realists. They keep each other in check.
These days we have too many cynics masquerading as realists and too many dreamers dreaming yesterday's dreams.
And there is some truth to this. While there is a lot of fear, xenophobia and mistrust to the kipper manifesto, there also a hankering for yesterdays dreams, for a 1950's British Utopia.
Not really. Most UKIP supporters simply want an end to mass immigration, and annual numbers brought under control. I don't think that's an unreasonable aspiration.
(1) Do we think these 46 letters will be forthcoming after the Tories lose Rochester? (2) Will there be any further Tory > UKIP MP defections?
On no.1 a certain cabinet minister thinks so. On no.2 everyone is anticipating it.
The european arrest warrant doesn't help as it provides for an excuse for those two things to occur even easier.
As they defect they can take the letters they have written with them, getting the total down below the threshold?
Well the chances of a defection increases if there are no 46 letters. Backbenchers last incentive to stay in the Tory party is a potential leadership vote, if that doesn't happen and the prospects of getting rid of Cameron before the election are slim then the chances rise considerably that they will defect.
Re Murphy, I read an entry on Wiki that he had been at Uni for 9 years, but didn't finish his degree. Is this true or has someone 'edited' his career the same way that Brown became MP for Berlin East.
I would expect Jim Murphy to be a very strong favourite now. Frankly the only issue I can see would be a commitment to leave Westminster and come to Holyrood.
If SLAB don't go for him the rumours of self harming will be confirmed.
I'm always bemused by comments like this. Am I missing something? Even leaving aside Murphy's political views (which are not to my taste), in personal style I see someone who comes across on TV as very dull. "Soporific" is a good way to describe his voice. I genuinely don't see what it is that has so many talking about what a great leader he would be.
Ja I can banter on this Danny565 - you're being very harsh on Mr Murhpy's accent - if you're noticing some central belt accent sing song going I'd suggest your perceptive is wrong.
Carnyx, I think we're the only PB Scots alive - comment?
I would expect Jim Murphy to be a very strong favourite now. Frankly the only issue I can see would be a commitment to leave Westminster and come to Holyrood.
If SLAB don't go for him the rumours of self harming will be confirmed.
I'm always bemused by comments like this. Am I missing something? Even leaving aside Murphy's political views (which are not to my taste), in personal style I see someone who comes across on TV as very dull. "Soporific" is a good way to describe his voice. I genuinely don't see what it is that has so many talking about what a great leader he would be.
I don't either, unless it is a comparative way when looking at other contenders.
I would expect Jim Murphy to be a very strong favourite now. Frankly the only issue I can see would be a commitment to leave Westminster and come to Holyrood.
If SLAB don't go for him the rumours of self harming will be confirmed.
I'm always bemused by comments like this. Am I missing something? Even leaving aside Murphy's political views (which are not to my taste), in personal style I see someone who comes across on TV as very dull. "Soporific" is a good way to describe his voice. I genuinely don't see what it is that has so many talking about what a great leader he is. I'm not convinced he'd have the beating of Ed Miliband in the charisma stakes, from what I've seen of him.
Scottish Labour has a fairly low bar for charisma. Some of them struggle to have a shadow.
Murphy is articulate (if not particularly witty), a technocrat and personally brave (the helicopter incident). His policies are more Blairite than most Scots and Neil Findlay is well connected with the Unions but if SLAB is serious about winning power back in Holyrood it really is a no brainer.
(1) Do we think these 46 letters will be forthcoming after the Tories lose Rochester? (2) Will there be any further Tory > UKIP MP defections?
On no.1 a certain cabinet minister thinks so. On no.2 everyone is anticipating it.
The european arrest warrant doesn't help as it provides for an excuse for those two things to occur even easier.
As they defect they can take the letters they have written with them, getting the total down below the threshold?
Well the chances of a defection increases if there are no 46 letters. Backbenchers last incentive to stay in the Tory party is a potential leadership vote, if that doesn't happen and the prospects of getting rid of Cameron before the election are slim then the chances rise considerably that they will defect.
Yeah! That's brilliant! A man actually causes physical violence to another man who was merely and verbally being a (pretend) twat.
It's great! Why don't we go further and electrocute people who don't approve of gay marriage all the time everywhere.
Yeah! Great to see!
I wonder if the actors were somehow disappointed. Perhaps they secretly hoped to film some juicy racist rant and incoherent intemperate abuse.
For what it's worth, I would have intervened too. I don't like bullying, or downright rudeness, which is what that would be. Even though I do oppose mass immigration and the multiculturalist creed.
Interesting for various reasons, but here's another straw for me...
At the very least, Labour ought to be increasing its share of the vote in the byelection. It has managed that more often than not in this parliament, even in Heywood and Middleton, though not in Clacton. In Rochester, that may not happen either. While some Labour voters are undoubtedly tempted to switch to Ukip, even when the Ukip candidate is the former Tory MP, there is also said to be evidence that better-off Labour voters are contemplating voting tactically for the Tories to keep Ukip out. For Labour in Rochester, the test is merely to hold on.
Jennie Formby @JennieUnite #Unite Scotland welcome Neil Findlay's candidacy; 'He has a proven track record of representing the interests of working people'. More soon Retweeted by Patrick Wintour
Based on this, if I go batter the f**k out of pensioner Gerry Adams next time I see the blow hard beard in Belfast do I take it the liberal progressives on here will cheer me on on the basis he's a fascist?
I would expect Jim Murphy to be a very strong favourite now. Frankly the only issue I can see would be a commitment to leave Westminster and come to Holyrood.
If SLAB don't go for him the rumours of self harming will be confirmed.
I'm always bemused by comments like this. Am I missing something? Even leaving aside Murphy's political views (which are not to my taste), in personal style I see someone who comes across on TV as very dull. "Soporific" is a good way to describe his voice. I genuinely don't see what it is that has so many talking about what a great leader he would be.
Ja I can banter on this Danny565 - you're being very harsh on Mr Murhpy's accent - if you're noticing some central belt accent sing song going I'd suggest your perceptive is wrong.
Carnyx, I think we're the only PB Scots alive - comment?
I'm only dipping in now and then really, but there's enough Scottish stuff to keep me coming back at the moment. However I've not been regular enough to be a good judge. I do know that Malky was around a day or two ago and TUD was commenting at least once recently. Does HYUFD qualify? I seem to recall he has a wide knowledge of Glasgow football and so on, but that isn't conclusive in itself.
On Mr M, my view would be that he has a lot of history from his time in the Blair and Brown cabinets and that could be a disadvantage. But the fundamental problem is that he is a MP. How he proposes to sort that will be important, and if he remains a MP then (a) he risks triggering a by-election [edit:} if he resigns his Westminster seat a year after the next GE on election as a MSP, and/or (b) losing his seat in either parliament, and/or (c) being MSP and MP at the same time. And unless he becomes a MSP pronto he has to deal with Mr Sarwar who is already a MP and who has to be ejected as deputy to maintain any credible balance. Both would be ongoing issues whatever happens before Xmas, even if Mr S is replaced by one of the two other candidates.
Quite a few people think it would be foolish (or at best mixed) to elect Mr M as party leader in SLAB, e.g.
Yeah! That's brilliant! A man actually causes physical violence to another man who was merely and verbally being a (pretend) twat.
It's great! Why don't we go further and electrocute people who don't approve of gay marriage all the time everywhere.
Yeah! Great to see!
Must be galling to see racist Islamophobia met with just deserts (even if experimental)?
What would you do? Join in the abuse?
I dunno. Probably behead him in the street, rape his wife, rape his kids, genitally mutilate his daughters, marry our cousins, enslave all pagans, force all women in Salford to marry my brothers, force all women in the world to wear a burqa, blow up a plane, blow up a bus, blow up Mike Smithson, then go and rape and abuse 200,000 children in care homes around the world, then demand that people are punched for insulting me.
Yeah! That's brilliant! A man actually causes physical violence to another man who was merely and verbally being a (pretend) twat.
It's great! Why don't we go further and electrocute people who don't approve of gay marriage all the time everywhere.
Yeah! Great to see!
Must be galling to see racist Islamophobia met with just deserts (even if experimental)?
What would you do? Join in the abuse?
I dunno. Probably behead him in the street, rape his wife, rape his kids, genitally mutilate his daughters, marry our cousins, enslave all pagans, force all women in Salford to marry my brothers, force all women in the world to wear a burqa, blow up a plane, blow up a bus, blow up Mike Smithson, then go and rape and abuse 200,000 children in care homes around the world, then demand that people are punched for insulting me.
I would expect Jim Murphy to be a very strong favourite now. Frankly the only issue I can see would be a commitment to leave Westminster and come to Holyrood.
If SLAB don't go for him the rumours of self harming will be confirmed.
I'm always bemused by comments like this. Am I missing something? Even leaving aside Murphy's political views (which are not to my taste), in personal style I see someone who comes across on TV as very dull. "Soporific" is a good way to describe his voice. I genuinely don't see what it is that has so many talking about what a great leader he would be.
Ja I can banter on this Danny565 - you're being very harsh on Mr Murhpy's accent - if you're noticing some central belt accent sing song going I'd suggest your perceptive is wrong.
Carnyx, I think we're the only PB Scots alive - comment?
I'm only dipping in now and then really, but there's enough Scottish stuff to keep me coming back at the moment. However I've not been regular enough to be a good judge. I do know that Malky was around a day or two ago and TUD was commenting at least once recently. Does HYUFD qualify? I seem to recall he has a wide knowledge of Glasgow football and so on, but that isn't conclusive in itself.
On Mr M, my view would be that he has a lot of history from his time in the Blair and Brown cabinets and that could be a disadvantage. But the fundamental problem is that he is a MP. How he proposes to sort that will be important, and if he remains a MP then (a) he risks triggering a by-election, and/or (b) losing his seat in either parliament, and/or (c) being MSP and MP at the same time. And unless he becomes a MSP pronto he has to deal with Mr Sarwar who is already a MP and who has to be ejected as deputy to maintain any credible balance. Both would be ongoing issues whatever happens before Xmas, even if Mr S is replaced by one of the two other candidates.
Quite a few people think it would be foolish (or at best mixed) to elect Mr M as party leader in SLAB, e.g.
Based on this, if I go batter the f**k out of pensioner Gerry Adams next time I see the blow hard beard in Belfast do I take it the liberal progressives on here will cheer me on on the basis he's a fascist?
' The trial of an imam accused of conducting 580 sham marriages between Muslim men and European brides collapsed after the Home Office failed to hand over paperwork in time.
Mohammed Mattar, 62, was said to have presided over the bogus weddings at his Islamic bookshop in west London between 2008 and 2012 to help men win the right to stay in Britain.
He was due to stand trial at Isleworth Crown Court earlier this month but the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) dropped the charges after government investigators missed deadlines to hand over vital information. '
Yeah! That's brilliant! A man actually causes physical violence to another man who was merely and verbally being a (pretend) twat.
It's great! Why don't we go further and electrocute people who don't approve of gay marriage all the time everywhere.
Yeah! Great to see!
Must be galling to see racist Islamophobia met with just deserts (even if experimental)?
What would you do? Join in the abuse?
I dunno. Probably behead him in the street, rape his wife, rape his kids, genitally mutilate his daughters, marry our cousins, enslave all pagans, force all women in Salford to marry my brothers, force all women in the world to wear a burqa, blow up a plane, blow up a bus, blow up Mike Smithson, then go and rape and abuse 200,000 children in care homes around the world, then demand that people are punched for insulting me.
I would expect Jim Murphy to be a very strong favourite now. Frankly the only issue I can see would be a commitment to leave Westminster and come to Holyrood.
If SLAB don't go for him the rumours of self harming will be confirmed.
I'm always bemused by comments like this. Am I missing something? Even leaving aside Murphy's political views (which are not to my taste), in personal style I see someone who comes across on TV as very dull. "Soporific" is a good way to describe his voice. I genuinely don't see what it is that has so many talking about what a great leader he is. I'm not convinced he'd have the beating of Ed Miliband in the charisma stakes, from what I've seen of him.
Scottish Labour has a fairly low bar for charisma. Some of them struggle to have a shadow.
Murphy is articulate (if not particularly witty), a technocrat and personally brave (the helicopter incident). His policies are more Blairite than most Scots and Neil Findlay is well connected with the Unions but if SLAB is serious about winning power back in Holyrood it really is a no brainer.
Not many options for constituency seats. But could someone on the regional list resign his/her seat so Murphy could get into the Scottish Parliament early via that mechanism?
Or would Murphy already have to be at the top of the list from the previous 2011 election for that?
(1) Do we think these 46 letters will be forthcoming after the Tories lose Rochester? (2) Will there be any further Tory > UKIP MP defections?
On no.1 a certain cabinet minister thinks so. On no.2 everyone is anticipating it.
The european arrest warrant doesn't help as it provides for an excuse for those two things to occur even easier.
As they defect they can take the letters they have written with them, getting the total down below the threshold?
Well the chances of a defection increases if there are no 46 letters. Backbenchers last incentive to stay in the Tory party is a potential leadership vote, if that doesn't happen and the prospects of getting rid of Cameron before the election are slim then the chances rise considerably that they will defect.
And the odds on him getting beaten?
If a no confidence vote is called around 100 MP's will vote against him, 100 in favour and 100 are D/K. It all depends if the party heavyweights want him out. I say their's a 1 in 3 chance of him getting booted right now, progressively rising with every EU problem and UKIP boost. If he pays the EU bill he's finished.
If 100+ Tory MPs vote against the european arrest warrant, that should lengthen the odds on Theresa May as Cameron's replacement. Osborne's should also drop.
3% lead for Labour is around the best they get these days, which is bad for them. But every day they get leads of 3% the Tories run out of time, which is good for them. Labour continue to do just bad enough to keep it interesting, just good enough to remain favourites.
3% lead for Labour is around the best they get these days, which is bad for them. But every day they get leads of 3% the Tories run out of time, which is good for them. Labour continue to do just bad enough to keep it interesting, just good enough to remain favourites.
How long until a complete collapse of the LD's occurs? 6 months to go and they are still falling.
3% lead for Labour is around the best they get these days, which is bad for them. But every day they get leads of 3% the Tories run out of time, which is good for them. Labour continue to do just bad enough to keep it interesting, just good enough to remain favourites.
How long until a complete collapse of the LD's occurs? 6 months to go and they are still falling.
Clegg and Camerons unpopularity with their usual supporters is only thing that will make Ed is Crap PM.
3% lead for Labour is around the best they get these days, which is bad for them. But every day they get leads of 3% the Tories run out of time, which is good for them. Labour continue to do just bad enough to keep it interesting, just good enough to remain favourites.
How long until a complete collapse of the LD's occurs? 6 months to go and they are still falling.
Das ist richtig - I'm loathe to nail my colours to the mast once again, having perhaps failed badly last time.
On LD/ Green crossover: It's not that the Greens have risen much, it's that the LD are still falling. On those who think the Greens should be on the on the TV debates based on this poll, I ask why are the LD on the debates at all? At this rate the LD will be lucky to have anyone voting for them in 6 months time.
3% lead for Labour is around the best they get these days, which is bad for them. But every day they get leads of 3% the Tories run out of time, which is good for them. Labour continue to do just bad enough to keep it interesting, just good enough to remain favourites.
How long until a complete collapse of the LD's occurs? 6 months to go and they are still falling.
Clegg and Camerons unpopularity with their usual supporters is only thing that will make Ed is Crap PM.
' The trial of an imam accused of conducting 580 sham marriages between Muslim men and European brides collapsed after the Home Office failed to hand over paperwork in time.
Mohammed Mattar, 62, was said to have presided over the bogus weddings at his Islamic bookshop in west London between 2008 and 2012 to help men win the right to stay in Britain.
He was due to stand trial at Isleworth Crown Court earlier this month but the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) dropped the charges after government investigators missed deadlines to hand over vital information. '
I'm sure that Theresa May will show as much interest in this as she has in events in Rotherham.
Which is why May is not suited to takeover the leadership.
I think the Tories are unlikely to have a leadership contest, and if they do then I suspect it will be a Major/Redwood style walkover rather than a Thatcher style defenestration.
A year or so ago with the LDs on 10 or thereabouts and I'd have said they stood a reasonable chance of getting into the mid teens, as the thought they could outperform the polls by clinging on through incumbency and focusing on the remaining few areas of strength had some credence to it. But with them amazingly still dropping, now honing in on 5ish, the reverse may well happen, as even in LD seats with strong LD presences in local councils, it is so low that even those inclined to consider them may well think there is no point, that even from a comfortable majority in 2010 on current polling many will be wiped out, so even some remaining loyalists might well jump ship to Labour to ensure the local Tory does not win.
It seems odd that 10ish seems bad but not terminal, whereas 6-7ish does seem terminal, but it seems a plausible scenario now. The LDs were second in my neck of the woods, nowhere the Tories but light years ahead of Labour, but why would anybody but a party member bother voting for them in the constituency now? The Tories will win regardless, but for anyone hoping to beat them, Labour coming from virtually nowhere to run them close looks more plausible than the LDs doing so.
I feel terribly sorry for the Liberal Democratic Party. They are somewhat boxed in. If they stay in the Coalition there could be trouble, if they go it could be double.
Perhaps Michael Smithson will let us know, should they stay, or should they go?
A year or so ago with the LDs on 10 or thereabouts and I'd have said they stood a reasonable chance of getting into the mid teens, as the thought they could outperform the polls by clinging on through incumbency and focusing on the remaining few areas of strength had some credence to it. But with them amazingly still dropping, now honing in on 5ish, the reverse may well happen, as even in LD seats with strong LD presences in local councils, it is so low that even those inclined to consider them may well think there is no point, that even from a comfortable majority in 2010 on current polling many will be wiped out, so even some remaining loyalists might well jump ship to Labour to ensure the local Tory does not win.
It seems odd that 10ish seems bad but not terminal, whereas 6-7ish does seem terminal, but it seems a plausible scenario now. The LDs were second in my neck of the woods, nowhere the Tories but light years ahead of Labour, but why would anybody but a party member bother voting for them in the constituency now? The Tories will win regardless, but for anyone hoping to beat them, Labour coming from virtually nowhere to run them close looks more plausible than the LDs doing so.
That is a key thing that might drive the LD to extinction, if voters see the LD at these levels or lower in the opinion polls just before they cast their vote, they will think "what's the point of voting LD?" It's the opposite of the bandwagon effect.
Lower LD scores will tend to result in even lower scores as people will increasingly think that they are irrelevant. An electoral death spiral.
I feel terribly sorry for the Liberal Democratic Party. They are somewhat boxed in. If they stay in the Coalition there could be trouble, if they go it could be double.
Perhaps Michael Smithson will let us know, should they stay, or should they go?
The leeder is Nick Clegg MP
Are to you and maybe others-
If you think Mike S doesn't give respect to those who can fix WORLD-WIDE football matches you are taking the piss
3% lead for Labour is around the best they get these days, which is bad for them. But every day they get leads of 3% the Tories run out of time, which is good for them. Labour continue to do just bad enough to keep it interesting, just good enough to remain favourites.
The Greens are also selecting a lot more candidates at present than the LDs.
The last poll to show the Tories ahead had a fieldwork end-date of 6th October - ie. more than 3 weeks ago.
It's the trend though, Sunil.
For about 20 months now, the gap between Lab and Con has been reducing at 0.5 a month on average with Yougov.
It's all pointing towards an average Tory lead with YG by January, mainly caused by Labour disintegration.
The question then is how reliable are Yougov?
Well in the previous 7 months prior to October the YG leads were (March to September) 4,4,3,4.3,3,4 How is that a reducing trend?
October 1.5% due to Tory conf bounce.
November will be interesting i predict 3.
Rodney Crosby is forecasting crossover imminently although I gather than a number of models are now showing Labour as largest party due to time running out.
As I've said before, I don't really see what the point of the Lib Dems is any more. They don't seem to have a natural constituency. If you're a metropolitan pro-business type, you've got the Tories. If you're a metropolitan social democrat, you've got Labour. If you're a bearded anti-capitalist, you've got the Greens.
If you favour sound finances within a caring society, you have the LibDems. It is a minority view at present, but will be back, once people have seen enough of Farage and Miliband.
Sorry, Foxy.
That's the Tory position.
Remember, Society is not the same thing as the State.
I think that differing views on the States role in society are what most separates Tories and LDs.
And the belief in sound finances is what separates Labour and LDs.
But you stated the Tory position: sound finances and a caring society.
The LD position is, I believe "sound finances (unless they are in the left-wing phase of the moon) plus a "caring state" (whatever that means)
I feel terribly sorry for the Liberal Democratic Party. They are somewhat boxed in. If they stay in the Coalition there could be trouble, if they go it could be double.
Perhaps Michael Smithson will let us know, should they stay, or should they go?
The leeder is Nick Clegg MP
Are to you and maybe others-
If you think Mike S doesn't give respect to those who can fix WORLD-WIDE football matches you are taking the piss
The LD's position is shown by the frankly incredible movements since PP launched their Lost Deposits market. The top band was 151+, they've since added a new band of 201+ and even that is 6/4 now!
The Greens must surely be given a slot in at least 1 debate now, especially as they beat the LDs in the Euros too!
Conservatives- Largest party in government Labour- Main opposition Lib Dems-Government partner and 50+ seats UKIP- European Election winners, polling 15%+ Greens- Beat Lib Dems in a YouGov poll once
It is increasingly bizarre that Clegg is still in post.
The real mystery is why LD MP's still think they will be re-elected.
Well they read OGH rightfully quoting the research from Ashcroft that some of them will survive. They all think that they are in the "some of them". Delusional.
10 of them are not re-standing anyway. I expect a couple more to join them.
A year or so ago with the LDs on 10 or thereabouts and I'd have said they stood a reasonable chance of getting into the mid teens, as the thought they could outperform the polls by clinging on through incumbency and focusing on the remaining few areas of strength had some credence to it. But with them amazingly still dropping, now honing in on 5ish, the reverse may well happen, as even in LD seats with strong LD presences in local councils, it is so low that even those inclined to consider them may well think there is no point, that even from a comfortable majority in 2010 on current polling many will be wiped out, so even some remaining loyalists might well jump ship to Labour to ensure the local Tory does not win.
It seems odd that 10ish seems bad but not terminal, whereas 6-7ish does seem terminal, but it seems a plausible scenario now. The LDs were second in my neck of the woods, nowhere the Tories but light years ahead of Labour, but why would anybody but a party member bother voting for them in the constituency now? The Tories will win regardless, but for anyone hoping to beat them, Labour coming from virtually nowhere to run them close looks more plausible than the LDs doing so.
That is a key thing that might drive the LD to extinction, if voters see the LD at these levels or lower in the opinion polls just before they cast their vote, they will think "what's the point of voting LD?" It's the opposite of the bandwagon effect.
Lower LD scores will tend to result in even lower scores as people will increasingly think that they are irrelevant. An electoral death spiral.
You don't half post some absolute drivel . Look at the actual local council by election results from July to date . The Lib Dem vote share is up on the previous contests at 15% and there has been a net gain of seats . The Green share of the vote has fallen in nearly every seat they contested and is below 4% . Now which party is in an electoral death spiral . In reality none as the Greens will always have a minor role to play .
I feel terribly sorry for the Liberal Democratic Party. They are somewhat boxed in. If they stay in the Coalition there could be trouble, if they go it could be double.
Perhaps Michael Smithson will let us know, should they stay, or should they go?
The leeder is Nick Clegg MP
Are to you and maybe others-
If you think Mike S doesn't give respect to those who can fix WORLD-WIDE football matches you are taking the piss
I feel terribly sorry for the Liberal Democratic Party. They are somewhat boxed in. If they stay in the Coalition there could be trouble, if they go it could be double.
Perhaps Michael Smithson will let us know, should they stay, or should they go?
The leeder is Nick Clegg MP
Are to you and maybe others-
If you think Mike S doesn't give respect to those who can fix WORLD-WIDE football matches you are taking the piss
BBC reporting Jim Murphy is standing as London Labour candidate for SLAB leader.Full announcement tomorrow.This election will determine whether Labour regains credibility in Scotland in GE2015,or not.
We are reliably informed by Prof Philip Cowley that the key difference between Labourites and Conservatives is that the former group like dressing up and spanking. Conservatives prefer more conventional coupling, it would seem.
A year or so ago with the LDs on 10 or thereabouts and I'd have said they stood a reasonable chance of getting into the mid teens, as the thought they could outperform the polls by clinging on through incumbency and focusing on the remaining few areas of strength had some credence to it. But with them amazingly still dropping, now honing in on 5ish, the reverse may well happen, as even in LD seats with strong LD presences in local councils, it is so low that even those inclined to consider them may well think there is no point, that even from a comfortable majority in 2010 on current polling many will be wiped out, so even some remaining loyalists might well jump ship to Labour to ensure the local Tory does not win.
It seems odd that 10ish seems bad but not terminal, whereas 6-7ish does seem terminal, but it seems a plausible scenario now. The LDs were second in my neck of the woods, nowhere the Tories but light years ahead of Labour, but why would anybody but a party member bother voting for them in the constituency now? The Tories will win regardless, but for anyone hoping to beat them, Labour coming from virtually nowhere to run them close looks more plausible than the LDs doing so.
That is a key thing that might drive the LD to extinction, if voters see the LD at these levels or lower in the opinion polls just before they cast their vote, they will think "what's the point of voting LD?" It's the opposite of the bandwagon effect.
Lower LD scores will tend to result in even lower scores as people will increasingly think that they are irrelevant. An electoral death spiral.
You don't half post some absolute drivel . Look at the actual local council by election results from July to date . The Lib Dem vote share is up on the previous contests at 15% and there has been a net gain of seats . The Green share of the vote has fallen in nearly every seat they contested and is below 4% . Now which party is in an electoral death spiral . In reality none as the Greens will always have a minor role to play .
I'd have been inclined to agree with you, but the sheer persistence of death spiral level polling for the LDs has to have some affect at some point, surely? They'll return 20-30 MPs, and they've been in worse positions than that, but if the vote just disappears in too many seats, be they Labour or Tory heartlands, if people just get out of the habit of voting LD in parliamentary elections, a recovery to the sort of position they claim they want to have, holding the balance of power, will be so much harder.
As I've said before, I don't really see what the point of the Lib Dems is any more. They don't seem to have a natural constituency. If you're a metropolitan pro-business type, you've got the Tories. If you're a metropolitan social democrat, you've got Labour. If you're a bearded anti-capitalist, you've got the Greens.
If you favour sound finances within a caring society, you have the LibDems. It is a minority view at present, but will be back, once people have seen enough of Farage and Miliband.
Sorry, Foxy.
That's the Tory position.
Remember, Society is not the same thing as the State.
I think that differing views on the States role in society are what most separates Tories and LDs.
And the belief in sound finances is what separates Labour and LDs.
But you stated the Tory position: sound finances and a caring society.
The LD position is, I believe "sound finances (unless they are in the left-wing phase of the moon) plus a "caring state" (whatever that means)
At some point I'll understand why the bookies have the LDs on shorter odds for 31-40 seats than 21-30. Unless the polls improve that simply makes no sense.
He's right - this is almost a dream setup for the GOP - if they can't win when the stars are aligned for them as they are this year, you have to ask if they can ever win big again.
The LD's position is shown by the frankly incredible movements since PP launched their Lost Deposits market. The top band was 151+, they've since added a new band of 201+ and even that is 6/4 now!
How much is deposit? £500? Even assuming virtually nil other spending in hundreds of seats, still a disappointment to have to write off hundreds of that amount just to keep up appearances about national ambitions.
If 100+ Tory MPs vote against the european arrest warrant, that should lengthen the odds on Theresa May as Cameron's replacement. Osborne's should also drop.
It is Cameron's decision and no-on else's.Should Ms May's odds lengthen all to the good to enhance reward.She is showing the necessary leadership in delegating upwards.
A year or so ago with the LDs on 10 or thereabouts and I'd have said they stood a reasonable chance of getting into the mid teens, as the thought they could outperform the polls by clinging on through incumbency and focusing on the remaining few areas of strength had some credence to it. But with them amazingly still dropping, now honing in on 5ish, the reverse may well happen, as even in LD seats with strong LD presences in local councils, it is so low that even those inclined to consider them may well think there is no point, that even from a comfortable majority in 2010 on current polling many will be wiped out, so even some remaining loyalists might well jump ship to Labour to ensure the local Tory does not win.
It seems odd that 10ish seems bad but not terminal, whereas 6-7ish does seem terminal, but it seems a plausible scenario now. The LDs were second in my neck of the woods, nowhere the Tories but light years ahead of Labour, but why would anybody but a party member bother voting for them in the constituency now? The Tories will win regardless, but for anyone hoping to beat them, Labour coming from virtually nowhere to run them close looks more plausible than the LDs doing so.
That is a key thing that might drive the LD to extinction, if voters see the LD at these levels or lower in the opinion polls just before they cast their vote, they will think "what's the point of voting LD?" It's the opposite of the bandwagon effect.
Lower LD scores will tend to result in even lower scores as people will increasingly think that they are irrelevant. An electoral death spiral.
You don't half post some absolute drivel . Look at the actual local council by election results from July to date . The Lib Dem vote share is up on the previous contests at 15% and there has been a net gain of seats . The Green share of the vote has fallen in nearly every seat they contested and is below 4% . Now which party is in an electoral death spiral . In reality none as the Greens will always have a minor role to play .
I'm sure the LD will continue to play a role in local councils, however it is increasingly difficult to believe that they will play any other role. It is LD's with your attitude that have resulted in the LD's losing almost all their voters and coming fifth behind the Greens in opinion polls.
But at least you serve as a barometer, the more complacent you are about the LD, the more they fall.
The LD's position is shown by the frankly incredible movements since PP launched their Lost Deposits market. The top band was 151+, they've since added a new band of 201+ and even that is 6/4 now!
How much is deposit? £500? Even assuming virtually nil other spending in hundreds of seats, still a disappointment to have to write off hundreds of that amount just to keep up appearances about national ambitions.
It's only about £250,000 if they lose their deposit in 500 seats.
Worth spending to keep up the pretence - and presumably the free PPBs that go with it.
A year or so ago with the LDs on 10 or thereabouts and I'd have said they stood a reasonable chance of getting into the mid teens, as the thought they could outperform the polls by clinging on through incumbency and focusing on the remaining few areas of strength had some credence to it. But with them amazingly still dropping, now honing in on 5ish, the reverse may well happen, as even in LD seats with strong LD presences in local councils, it is so low that even those inclined to consider them may well think there is no point, that even from a comfortable majority in 2010 on current polling many will be wiped out, so even some remaining loyalists might well jump ship to Labour to ensure the local Tory does not win.
It seems odd that 10ish seems bad but not terminal, whereas 6-7ish does seem terminal, but it seems a plausible scenario now. The LDs were second in my neck of the woods, nowhere the Tories but light years ahead of Labour, but why would anybody but a party member bother voting for them in the constituency now? The Tories will win regardless, but for anyone hoping to beat them, Labour coming from virtually nowhere to run them close looks more plausible than the LDs doing so.
That is a key thing that might drive the LD to extinction, if voters see the LD at these levels or lower in the opinion polls just before they cast their vote, they will think "what's the point of voting LD?" It's the opposite of the bandwagon effect.
Lower LD scores will tend to result in even lower scores as people will increasingly think that they are irrelevant. An electoral death spiral.
You don't half post some absolute drivel . Look at the actual local council by election results from July to date . The Lib Dem vote share is up on the previous contests at 15% and there has been a net gain of seats . The Green share of the vote has fallen in nearly every seat they contested and is below 4% . Now which party is in an electoral death spiral . In reality none as the Greens will always have a minor role to play .
At Westminster by-elections the LibDems have lost 10 deposits out of 18 GB mainland contests since 2010.
At some point I'll understand why the bookies have the LDs on shorter odds for 31-40 seats than 21-30. Unless the polls improve that simply makes no sense.
The LibDem luvvies on here will tell you that the incumbency benefits accruing to their MPS make it virtually impossible for the Tories to win more than a handful of their seats at the GE and that their losses will therefore be mainly restricted to Lab wins in the North and the odd SNP gain from them.
Comments
So far though unfortunately only Sarah Boyack has put her name forward, and the nominations close on Friday.
Correction just seen that Murphy will stand too, if it's only him and Boyack, Murphy will win.
Backbenchers last incentive to stay in the Tory party is a potential leadership vote, if that doesn't happen and the prospects of getting rid of Cameron before the election are slim then the chances rise considerably that they will defect.
Carnyx, I think we're the only PB Scots alive - comment?
Murphy is articulate (if not particularly witty), a technocrat and personally brave (the helicopter incident). His policies are more Blairite than most Scots and Neil Findlay is well connected with the Unions but if SLAB is serious about winning power back in Holyrood it really is a no brainer.
For what it's worth, I would have intervened too. I don't like bullying, or downright rudeness, which is what that would be. Even though I do oppose mass immigration and the multiculturalist creed.
What would you do? Join in the abuse?
We read the names of 453 British troops killed in Afghanistan… it takes 19 minutes
(BBC Newsbeat)
At the very least, Labour ought to be increasing its share of the vote in the byelection. It has managed that more often than not in this parliament, even in Heywood and Middleton, though not in Clacton. In Rochester, that may not happen either. While some Labour voters are undoubtedly tempted to switch to Ukip, even when the Ukip candidate is the former Tory MP, there is also said to be evidence that better-off Labour voters are contemplating voting tactically for the Tories to keep Ukip out. For Labour in Rochester, the test is merely to hold on.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/29/miliband-point-of-no-return-rochester-come-out-fighting
Za Bbc got the wrong month though...
Jennie Formby @JennieUnite
#Unite Scotland welcome Neil Findlay's candidacy; 'He has a proven track record of representing the interests of working people'. More soon
Retweeted by Patrick Wintour
On Mr M, my view would be that he has a lot of history from his time in the Blair and Brown cabinets and that could be a disadvantage. But the fundamental problem is that he is a MP. How he proposes to sort that will be important, and if he remains a MP then (a) he risks triggering a by-election [edit:} if he resigns his Westminster seat a year after the next GE on election as a MSP, and/or (b) losing his seat in either parliament, and/or (c) being MSP and MP at the same time. And unless he becomes a MSP pronto he has to deal with Mr Sarwar who is already a MP and who has to be ejected as deputy to maintain any credible balance. Both would be ongoing issues whatever happens before Xmas, even if Mr S is replaced by one of the two other candidates.
Quite a few people think it would be foolish (or at best mixed) to elect Mr M as party leader in SLAB, e.g.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/columnists/murphy-is-good-and-bad-news-for-his-party.25681790
I do note also his slowness to step up, and the problems for his career if he loses at any point now, or in 2015 or 2016.
If they submitted a letter, waited for a leadership election to be called, and then defected, then it'd probably be too late to call it off.
How's the Kurdish incursion going?
*Brisky rings Obi-wan*
And some people are wondered why the LDs are required in this EU world...
' The trial of an imam accused of conducting 580 sham marriages between Muslim men and European brides collapsed after the Home Office failed to hand over paperwork in time.
Mohammed Mattar, 62, was said to have presided over the bogus weddings at his Islamic bookshop in west London between 2008 and 2012 to help men win the right to stay in Britain.
He was due to stand trial at Isleworth Crown Court earlier this month but the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) dropped the charges after government investigators missed deadlines to hand over vital information. '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11195771/Imams-sham-marriage-trial-collapses-after-Home-Office-blunder.html
I'm sure that Theresa May will show as much interest in this as she has in events in Rotherham.
Or would Murphy already have to be at the top of the list from the previous 2011 election for that?
It all depends if the party heavyweights want him out.
I say their's a 1 in 3 chance of him getting booted right now, progressively rising with every EU problem and UKIP boost.
If he pays the EU bill he's finished.
Ed is Crap is PM
EDIT: Overall figures:
LAB - 34% (+1)
CON - 31% (-1)
UKIP - 17% (=)
GRN - 7% (+2)
LDEM - 6% (-2)
3% lead for Labour is around the best they get these days, which is bad for them. But every day they get leads of 3% the Tories run out of time, which is good for them. Labour continue to do just bad enough to keep it interesting, just good enough to remain favourites.
6 months to go and they are still falling.
It's an observable pattern every 6th or 7th poll.
Lead down to 1 tomorrow.
Falling over the line
It's not that the Greens have risen much, it's that the LD are still falling.
On those who think the Greens should be on the on the TV debates based on this poll, I ask why are the LD on the debates at all?
At this rate the LD will be lucky to have anyone voting for them in 6 months time.
For about 20 months now, the gap between Lab and Con has been reducing at 0.5 a month on average with Yougov.
It's all pointing towards an average Tory lead with YG by January, mainly caused by Labour disintegration.
The question then is how reliable are Yougov?
I think the Tories are unlikely to have a leadership contest, and if they do then I suspect it will be a Major/Redwood style walkover rather than a Thatcher style defenestration.
Such a battle would be electoral suicide.
It seems odd that 10ish seems bad but not terminal, whereas 6-7ish does seem terminal, but it seems a plausible scenario now. The LDs were second in my neck of the woods, nowhere the Tories but light years ahead of Labour, but why would anybody but a party member bother voting for them in the constituency now? The Tories will win regardless, but for anyone hoping to beat them, Labour coming from virtually nowhere to run them close looks more plausible than the LDs doing so.
As a result I truly despair, I really do .
ABL
DUEMA
Perhaps Michael Smithson will let us know, should they stay, or should they go?
But surely, things are now so bad they have to act.
They need a Kevin Rudd caretaker with a bit of personal popularity to save dignity and seats. Hughes or Cable.
Right about now
4,4,3,4.3,3,4 How is that a reducing trend?
October 1.5% due to Tory conf bounce.
November will be interesting i predict 3.
It's the opposite of the bandwagon effect.
Lower LD scores will tend to result in even lower scores as people will increasingly think that they are irrelevant.
An electoral death spiral.
Are to you and maybe others-
If you think Mike S doesn't give respect to those who can fix WORLD-WIDE football matches you are taking the piss
Con Lab LD UKIP Other
Con lead over Lab
2014 % % % % % %
September 32 36 7 15 10 -4
August 34 37 8 12 9 -3
July 34 37 8 12 9 -3
June 33 37 8 14 9 -4
May 33 36 9 14 8 -3
April 33 37 9 13 6 -4
March 34 38 10 12 6 -4
No trend until October which will be either 1% or 2% lead
Welcome back Last boy scout.
The LD position is, I believe "sound finances (unless they are in the left-wing phase of the moon) plus a "caring state" (whatever that means)
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/lib-dem-deposit-losses
Labour- Main opposition
Lib Dems-Government partner and 50+ seats
UKIP- European Election winners, polling 15%+
Greens- Beat Lib Dems in a YouGov poll once
10 of them are not re-standing anyway. I expect a couple more to join them.
20 months, 10 points.
Why 20 months? That's when the recovery kicked in.
Slab - still banging on about People of scotland
55 55 55 55 55 55 literally just went live across scotland as I typed this
I won a tenner...
A reduction of 0% in last 7 months prior to October
We are reliably informed by Prof Philip Cowley that the key difference between Labourites and Conservatives is that the former group like dressing up and spanking. Conservatives prefer more conventional coupling, it would seem.
I took me hours and hours and hours to hack into my russian account - Avery would have been well disappointed.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/10/scotland-needs-jim-murphy-even-if-he-doesnt-want-to-go-back-there/
It is LD's with your attitude that have resulted in the LD's losing almost all their voters and coming fifth behind the Greens in opinion polls.
But at least you serve as a barometer, the more complacent you are about the LD, the more they fall.
Worth spending to keep up the pretence - and presumably the free PPBs that go with it.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/522402890598858752/photo/1