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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Concerns about health and immigration rise as the economy drops to six year low in the Ipsos-MORI issues index

Concern about the NHS jumps by 9% in Oct Ipsos-MORI Issues index. Now 2nd only to immigration. pic.twitter.com/1YNbLZ86iL

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Socrates

SouthamObserver said:

The large scale sexual abuse of vulnerable children in the UK has been certain for decades. And it has been ignored for just as long. UKIP has an MP who until recently was a member of the government benches, it is probably about to get another one. The party has many former Conservatives among its members and supporters, and a fair few Labour ones too. They did not appear from nowhere. They have track records in politics. And none of them have ever shown the slightest interest in this issue, as far as I can see. They have chosen to be interested in other stuff.

If this abuse was happening in Douglas Carswell's constituency, he would be responsible for no action. But it hasn't. It has happened in other constituencies across the country. The country that Cameron is responsible for. And he's done nothing.

Scrapheap_as_was

What the chuffing chuff had been going on with Betfair and Rochester.... is it to do with this sort of polling re immigration or something more localised????

Itajai

Oh no!
That means Ed will drone on and on about the NHS then!

24 hours to save the NHS and some such nonsense coming our way!

oxfordsimon

Itajai said:

Oh no!
That means Ed will drone on and on about the NHS then!

24 hours to save the NHS and some such nonsense coming our way!

He can drone on and on about whatever he likes - but the public have stopped hearing what he is saying

And that is fatal

steve_garner

Concern about the NHS increases as Labour's poll scores tank. Link?

Smarmeron

FTP
@SeanT
During your more "adventurous youth", did you not notice city gentlemen availing themselves of a little fresh meat at back of Kings Cross station, and other sundry places?

isam

Scrapheap_as_was said:

What the chuffing chuff had been going on with Betfair and Rochester.... is it to do with this sort of polling re immigration or something more localised????

It had all the pointers of an easy UKIP win right from the start, as I said time and time and time again on here.

The only things the Tories had going for them was their faith that because they "really wanted it" that made them more likely to win, and that because they felt let down by Reckless, the people of Rochester would as well

Well UKIP "really wanted it" too, and the people of Rochester had already voted UKIP to a very easy win in the Euros..

Maybe the Tories will fight back and win, but how anyone thought they were the value bet here baffled me from the start

isam

SeanT said:

Socrates said:

SouthamObserver said:

The large scale sexual abuse of vulnerable children in the UK has been certain for decades. And it has been ignored for just as long. UKIP has an MP who until recently was a member of the government benches, it is probably about to get another one. The party has many former Conservatives among its members and supporters, and a fair few Labour ones too. They did not appear from nowhere. They have track records in politics. And none of them have ever shown the slightest interest in this issue, as far as I can see. They have chosen to be interested in other stuff.

If this abuse was happening in Douglas Carswell's constituency, he would be responsible for no action. But it hasn't. It has happened in other constituencies across the country. The country that Cameron is responsible for. And he's done nothing.

I'm not a UKIP supporter, but you are completely right about this.

Imagine if the situation was reversed: imagine if it was revealed that large gangs of white men were consistently grooming and raping THOUSANDS of Asian and black girls, and choosing their victims, in part, precisely because of their race (using terms like "black sluts").

Imagine if it was revealed that this racist gang rape had been known about by many for years, and had been systematically ignored or covered-up (apparently for reasons of political correctness). Imagine, furthermore, that there was strong evidence that this racist gang rape and abuse (and, in some cases, murder) was happening in towns and cities across the country - implying tens of thousands of victims. TENS of THOUSANDS.

It is utterly inconceivable that all three major parties would not now be in turmoil, and MPs up in arms, as this appalling scandal was finally addressed; there would be huge national inquiries, all party leaders would give their opinion, time and again, the nation would be asked to look at itself, in shame, etc etc. Compare with the furore over Stephen Lawrence.

Yet what have we heard from Cameron, Clegg and Miliband? Almost nothing. As far as I can tell, Ed Miliband's sole comment on the grotesque revelations from Rotherham was one sentence in an article in... the Doncaster Free Press.

It is a disgrace of Homeric proportions. All else is irrelevant.

Imagine that UKIP had been in charge of the councils in your story, and imagine a Kipper on here saying Labour and Tories were equally culpable

Is your imagination that vivid?

TheWatcher

I see the RAF have been rattling windows in hot pursuit of a Latvian aircraft over Kent.

http://news.sky.com/story/1362888/raf-planes-escort-cargo-plane-to-stansted

Scott_P

steve_garner said:

Concern about the NHS increases as Labour's poll scores tank. Link?

You are Dan Hodges and I claim my 2p

@DPJHodges: If the key for Labour is focussing on the NHS, why has a rise in salience of NHS as an issue coincided with collapse of Labour's poll lead.

Socrates

SeanT said:

So the main lesson that PB Lefties have drawn, from the mass rape of 1400 children in Rotherham from 1997-2010, is that Doctor Alan Sked should have said more about it, in 1989, therefore UKIP are responsible.

It reminds me of this now-famous Guardian article, which pours scorn on a massively popular artwork commemorating the dead of World War One, by claiming it represents the same diseased mood that "lets UKIP thrive".

http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/jonathanjonesblog/2014/oct/28/tower-of-london-poppies-ukip-remembrance-day

Soon the Left will be telling us that UKIP are responsible for the Iraq War, copper theft, man boobs, and the ultimate heat death of the universe.
FlagQuote · Off Topic

The whole centre-left cultural consensus that World War I was equally down to nationalism on all sides is a completely incorrect one that needs to be much more aggressively challenged. The only thing the British did wrong in the build-up to 1914 was not making it clear they would go to war earlier.

AndyJS

isam said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

What the chuffing chuff had been going on with Betfair and Rochester.... is it to do with this sort of polling re immigration or something more localised????

It had all the pointers of an easy UKIP win right from the start, as I said time and time and time again on here.

The only things the Tories had going for them was their faith that because they "really wanted it" that made them more likely to win, and that because they felt let down by Reckless, the people of Rochester would as well

Well UKIP "really wanted it" too, and the people of Rochester had already voted UKIP to a very easy win in the Euros..

Maybe the Tories will fight back and win, but how anyone thought they were the value bet here baffled me from the start

Why the Tories ever thought they could win the by-election is a total mystery. Maybe they convinced themselves after a few drinks at the party conference.

taffys

Therefore Labour may NOT necessarily benefit from increased concern about the NHS, as they are also seen as the party which favours large scale immigration.

Plus of course the hatchet job the Mail did on Wales...

Roger

SeanT

'Imagine if the situation was reversed: imagine if it was revealed that large gangs of white men were consistently grooming and raping THOUSANDS of Asian and black girls, and choosing their victim"

Completely horrific. It reminds me of those repulsive and grotesque middle aged white men who pray on nubile young Asian girls in Bangkok by giving them gifts and money for sordid sex. Some even come online and boast about it.

Urgh!

Sunil_Prasannan

AndyJS said:

isam said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

What the chuffing chuff had been going on with Betfair and Rochester.... is it to do with this sort of polling re immigration or something more localised????

It had all the pointers of an easy UKIP win right from the start, as I said time and time and time again on here.

The only things the Tories had going for them was their faith that because they "really wanted it" that made them more likely to win, and that because they felt let down by Reckless, the people of Rochester would as well

Well UKIP "really wanted it" too, and the people of Rochester had already voted UKIP to a very easy win in the Euros..

Maybe the Tories will fight back and win, but how anyone thought they were the value bet here baffled me from the start

Why the Tories ever thought they could win the by-election is a total mystery. Maybe they convinced themselves after a few drinks at the party conference.

Will this be the 19th Great Britain Westminster by-election in a row to see a drop in Conservative vote-share?

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/524921950226116609

steve_garner

Scott_P said:

steve_garner said:

Concern about the NHS increases as Labour's poll scores tank. Link?

You are Dan Hodges and I claim my 2p

@DPJHodges: If the key for Labour is focussing on the NHS, why has a rise in salience of NHS as an issue coincided with collapse of Labour's poll lead.

Sorry, I'm not Dan Hodges but I do share his view that Ed is toast.

OblitusSumMe

Would concern about the deficit come under the general "economy/economic situation"? Seems remarkable when the deficit is still so high that it is declining if so, or doesn't figure at all if not.

Seems obvious that concern about the NHS has increased because Labour have waged a high-profile recent campaign to convince people that it is in danger.

Itajai

oxfordsimon said:

Itajai said:

Oh no!
That means Ed will drone on and on about the NHS then!

24 hours to save the NHS and some such nonsense coming our way!

He can drone on and on about whatever he likes - but the public have stopped hearing what he is saying

And that is fatal

He has nothing to say on:
immigration,
economy,
Rotherham,
eating bacons sarnies,
anything else?

No wonder no one listens. He's got nothing to say.

Sunil_Prasannan

Socrates said:

SeanT said:

So the main lesson that PB Lefties have drawn, from the mass rape of 1400 children in Rotherham from 1997-2010, is that Doctor Alan Sked should have said more about it, in 1989, therefore UKIP are responsible.

It reminds me of this now-famous Guardian article, which pours scorn on a massively popular artwork commemorating the dead of World War One, by claiming it represents the same diseased mood that "lets UKIP thrive".

http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/jonathanjonesblog/2014/oct/28/tower-of-london-poppies-ukip-remembrance-day

Soon the Left will be telling us that UKIP are responsible for the Iraq War, copper theft, man boobs, and the ultimate heat death of the universe.
FlagQuote · Off Topic

The whole centre-left cultural consensus that World War I was equally down to nationalism on all sides is a completely incorrect one that needs to be much more aggressively challenged. The only thing the British did wrong in the build-up to 1914 was not making it clear they would go to war earlier.

I thought it was because Archie Duke shot an Ostrich wot was "Hungary"?

Itajai

TheWatcher said:

I see the RAF have been rattling windows in hot pursuit of a Latvian aircraft over Kent.

http://news.sky.com/story/1362888/raf-planes-escort-cargo-plane-to-stansted

Haha, yes.

It's an Antonov, Ergo it's Russian (actually Ukrainian but...), so it must be a military plane. So they must be testing NATO air defences.

Turns out it's a Latvian cargo plane. Move along, nothing to see here...

manofkent2014

OblitusSumMe said:

Would concern about the deficit come under the general "economy/economic situation"? Seems remarkable when the deficit is still so high that it is declining if so, or doesn't figure at all if not.

Seems obvious that concern about the NHS has increased because Labour have waged a high-profile recent campaign to convince people that it is in danger.

I think headlines saying that the CQC consider that 4 out of every 5 hospitals are not 'safe' might have something to do with it as well.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/nhs/11166270/Care-Quality-Commission-Four-in-five-NHS-hospitals-not-safe.html

anotherDave

Mori ask two questions.

Only 7% mentioned the NHS as their first priority.

Q1. Immigration 23%, Economy 15%, NHS 7%

Q1/Q2. Immigration 40%, NHS 34%, Economy 30%

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/October14IssuesIndex_topline.pdf

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3468/EconomistIpsos-MORI-October-2014-Issues-Index.aspx

I think voters are more likely to be motivated by their first priority.

Socrates

News bulletins this morning are all about the continued disgrace of failed asylum seekers not being kicked out. This is only going to push up immigration as an issue more.

There's no way that either big party can accept this will just go away. They need to have a credible plan to significantly reduce immigration. Otherwise they will get torn apart on the election campaign.

beast_in_black

Game set and match for the GE next year.

Pong

@SO

That Nick Davies excerpt on the previous thread is just very very sad.

I hope those kids get justice, and I hope the perpetrators are very worried right now.

Socrates

@SeanT

I can't comprehend people who so strenuously defend the Savilles and Polanskis of this world, often blaming the child victims. The only explanation that seems plausible for their behaviour is that they have done similar things themselves. I believe there are certain circles, like fashion and visual media, where a culture of abuse is quite common. Many of the Yewtree molesters worked in television, after all.

JBriskin

Smarmy, Socrates, SeanT -

Did the Fed taper the QE?

JBriskin

JBriskin said:

Smarmy, Socrates, SeanT -

Did the Fed taper the QE?

And Scott P

Pong

SeanT said:

Roger said:

SeanT

'Imagine if the situation was reversed: imagine if it was revealed that large gangs of white men were consistently grooming and raping THOUSANDS of Asian and black girls, and choosing their victim"

Completely horrific. It reminds me of those repulsive and grotesque middle aged white men who pray on nubile young Asian girls in Bangkok by giving them gifts and money for sordid sex. Some even come online and boast about it.

Urgh!

It also reminds me of sad, fat, ageing, retired tampon-ad directors who claimed that Jimmy Savile's infant victims probably lied, or if they didn't lie, they probably enjoyed being raped. You are always so oddly keen to exonerate the child rapists.

Why is that?

Is this what PB has turned into? A pile of old men slinging paedo allegations at each other?

I wonder how long before Mike bans all discussion of child abuse on PB. I'll go;

Before Friday: Evens
Next week: 3/1
After that: 3/1

taffys

And Scott P

Not tapered - finished...

MarkSenior

AndyJS said:

isam said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

What the chuffing chuff had been going on with Betfair and Rochester.... is it to do with this sort of polling re immigration or something more localised????

It had all the pointers of an easy UKIP win right from the start, as I said time and time and time again on here.

The only things the Tories had going for them was their faith that because they "really wanted it" that made them more likely to win, and that because they felt let down by Reckless, the people of Rochester would as well

Well UKIP "really wanted it" too, and the people of Rochester had already voted UKIP to a very easy win in the Euros..

Maybe the Tories will fight back and win, but how anyone thought they were the value bet here baffled me from the start

Why the Tories ever thought they could win the by-election is a total mystery. Maybe they convinced themselves after a few drinks at the party conference.

It is the same mentality that makes them think the Conservatives can win an overall majority next May .

JBriskin

taffys said:

And Scott P

Not tapered - finished...

Wow - had to have to happen at some some point I guess.

Fuck you R Brand etc. etc.

Ishmael_X

JBriskin said:

Smarmy, Socrates, SeanT -

Did the Fed taper the QE?

qtwtaiy, depending how you define "taper".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29823798

JBriskin

Ishmael_X said:

JBriskin said:

Smarmy, Socrates, SeanT -

Did the Fed taper the QE?

qtwtaiy, depending how you define "taper".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29823798

Arf?

Ishmael_X

SeanT said:

Pong said:

SeanT said:

Roger said:

SeanT

'Imagine if the situation was reversed: imagine if it was revealed that large gangs of white men were consistently grooming and raping THOUSANDS of Asian and black girls, and choosing their victim"

Completely horrific. It reminds me of those repulsive and grotesque middle aged white men who pray on nubile young Asian girls in Bangkok by giving them gifts and money for sordid sex. Some even come online and boast about it.

Urgh!

It also reminds me of sad, fat, ageing, retired tampon-ad directors who claimed that Jimmy Savile's infant victims probably lied, or if they didn't lie, they probably enjoyed being raped. You are always so oddly keen to exonerate the child rapists.

Why is that?

Is this what PB has turned into? A pile of old men slinging paedo allegations at each other?

I wonder how long before Mike bans all discussion of child abuse on PB. I'll go;

Before Friday: Evens
Next week: 3/1
After that: 3/1

Be fair, I didn't start the ad hominem stuff, but if it is dished out, I will happily return it, with a fried egg on top.

Anyway it is going to be difficult to avoid talking about child abuse, if this stuff coming out of Manchester is as incendiary as Channel 4 News are claiming.

We shall see. Now I must actually do some work. Salaam aleikum.

Wa aleikum salama.

The fact of a topic being in the news, does not protect it from being banned from PB.

Socrates

Pong said:

SeanT said:

Roger said:

SeanT

'Imagine if the situation was reversed: imagine if it was revealed that large gangs of white men were consistently grooming and raping THOUSANDS of Asian and black girls, and choosing their victim"

Completely horrific. It reminds me of those repulsive and grotesque middle aged white men who pray on nubile young Asian girls in Bangkok by giving them gifts and money for sordid sex. Some even come online and boast about it.

Urgh!

It also reminds me of sad, fat, ageing, retired tampon-ad directors who claimed that Jimmy Savile's infant victims probably lied, or if they didn't lie, they probably enjoyed being raped. You are always so oddly keen to exonerate the child rapists.

Why is that?

Is this what PB has turned into? A pile of old men slinging paedo allegations at each other?

I wonder how long before Mike bans all discussion of child abuse on PB. I'll go;

Before Friday: Evens
Next week: 3/1
After that: 3/1

There has been a deliberate strategy by certain Labour posters - tim and two others that I am banned from referencing - to turn discussions on the subject into nasty ad hominem attacks. Their plan is exactly this: make it such a nasty issue on here that people can't discuss it, thus avoiding news about a major scandal for the Labour party. Mike would be mad to play into their hands.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Socrates said:

SeanT said:

So the main lesson that PB Lefties have drawn, from the mass rape of 1400 children in Rotherham from 1997-2010, is that Doctor Alan Sked should have said more about it, in 1989, therefore UKIP are responsible.

It reminds me of this now-famous Guardian article, which pours scorn on a massively popular artwork commemorating the dead of World War One, by claiming it represents the same diseased mood that "lets UKIP thrive".

http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/jonathanjonesblog/2014/oct/28/tower-of-london-poppies-ukip-remembrance-day

Soon the Left will be telling us that UKIP are responsible for the Iraq War, copper theft, man boobs, and the ultimate heat death of the universe.
FlagQuote · Off Topic

The whole centre-left cultural consensus that World War I was equally down to nationalism on all sides is a completely incorrect one that needs to be much more aggressively challenged. The only thing the British did wrong in the build-up to 1914 was not making it clear they would go to war earlier.

I thought it was because Archie Duke shot an Ostrich wot was "Hungary"?

Because he was hungry?

AndyJS

UKIP now 1.05 with Betfair / Rochester:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/market?marketId=1.101416490#/exchange/market?marketId=1.115707446&eventTypeId=2378961

Richard_Nabavi

It seems entirely reasonable that concern about the economy should have fallen back, since the government has made such remarkable progress in fixing it following the crisis of 2008-2010. A lot more to do, of course, and the situation could rapidly turn very ugly again if we're faced with a Labour-led government after the election, but for now at least it's very sensible of voters to downgrade the economy as an issue facing Britain. Since this is a zero-sum game, one or more other issues must therefore increase in salience.

Immigration is being talked up by the government's most important opposition party, and Labour are trying to stoke up concerns over the NHS, which probably explains the high salience of those two particular issues at the moment.

Scott_P

@MrHarryCole: Hear Labour HQ are frantically calling activists to get them to S Yorkshire tomorrow. Warning party risks losing PCC byelection on 2nd prefs

Gadfly

Scrapheap_as_was said:

What the chuffing chuff had been going on with Betfair and Rochester.... is it to do with this sort of polling re immigration or something more localised????

I suspect PMQs answers this. Through announcing that the vote on the European Arrest Warrant would be held before the Rochester by-election, Cameron has virtually admitted that he thinks UKIP will win that by-election.

JBriskin

I Hate being on Sbbc duty...

(Perhaps Easteross not so bad after all...)

Their leading with some silly Stugeion/EU thing and no mention of Murphy.

AndyJS

Scott_P said:

@MrHarryCole: Hear Labour HQ are frantically calling activists to get them to S Yorkshire tomorrow. Warning party risks losing PCC byelection on 2nd prefs

Did most PBers predict a UKIP win on yesterday's thread?

JBriskin

AndyJS said:

Scott_P said:

@MrHarryCole: Hear Labour HQ are frantically calling activists to get them to S Yorkshire tomorrow. Warning party risks losing PCC byelection on 2nd prefs

Did most PBers predict a UKIP win on yesterday's thread?

Err, wasn't it you that quoted the 1.01?

manofkent2014

Gadfly said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

What the chuffing chuff had been going on with Betfair and Rochester.... is it to do with this sort of polling re immigration or something more localised????

I suspect PMQs answers this. Through announcing that the vote on the European Arrest Warrant would be held before the Rochester by-election, Cameron has virtually admitted that he thinks UKIP will win that by-election.

Headlines in the Sun suggesting UKIP has polling telling them that 45% of Labour's vote in Rochester are ready to migrate to UKIP might have something to do with it

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6039285/Almost-half-of-all-Labour-Rochester-voters-are-going-to-back-Ukip.html

dr_spyn

Harry Cole ‏@MrHarryCole 11m11 minutes ago
Hear Labour HQ are frantically calling activists to get them to S Yorkshire tomorrow. Warning party risks losing PCC byelection on 2nd prefs

Mmmm. Ed is a loser, surely not?

TheWatcher

Itajai said:

TheWatcher said:

I see the RAF have been rattling windows in hot pursuit of a Latvian aircraft over Kent.

http://news.sky.com/story/1362888/raf-planes-escort-cargo-plane-to-stansted

Haha, yes.

It's an Antonov, Ergo it's Russian (actually Ukrainian but...), so it must be a military plane. So they must be testing NATO air defences.

Turns out it's a Latvian cargo plane. Move along, nothing to see here...

Someone recorded the Typhoons radio transmission -

https://soundcloud.com/egxwinfo-gr-up/qra-warning-from-raf-typhoons-to-mitavia1605-291014

Pilot meant business. Chilling but reassuring. Bet the cargo flight crew sobered up quickly.

Carnyx

Flightpath said:

Carnyx said:

dr_spyn said:

Want to stop George Osborne taxing your kids, then use the Tony Benn tax trick, and watch your liabilities fade away.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/tax/11189430/Tony-Benns-inheritance-tax-dodge-how-it-works-and-how-you-can-use-it-too.html?WT.mc_id=e_3644806&WT.tsrc=email&etype=personalfinance&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_PFi_New_2014_10_29&utm_campaign=3644806

Hmm, bit of a smear - the author is suspiciously unwilling to check the actual will [edit: of Mrs Benn] which will be easily accessible on public record and which might show a very different story.

A bit unkind to complain when Which for one recommend such things as bog standard. And it is now out of date anyway since married couples were allowed to combine their IHT allowances, so is of marginal relevance today.

You don't understand the concept of hypocricy.

FPT: I'm not sure it is fair to call it hypocritical to reduce IHT by such simple methods allowed within the rules. The Benns did not, for instance, set up a trust, or move their family wealth offshore, or so one presumes, in contrast with some other rather well known cases.

More to the point, we don't know what they ACTUALLY did. The article is all would and might. Note in particular that the author bothered to look up Mr Benn's will but conveniently did not bother with Mrs Benn's will while he was at it - or did he? Maybe it didn't fit in with the story.

Sunil_Prasannan

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Socrates said:

SeanT said:

So the main lesson that PB Lefties have drawn, from the mass rape of 1400 children in Rotherham from 1997-2010, is that Doctor Alan Sked should have said more about it, in 1989, therefore UKIP are responsible.

It reminds me of this now-famous Guardian article, which pours scorn on a massively popular artwork commemorating the dead of World War One, by claiming it represents the same diseased mood that "lets UKIP thrive".

http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/jonathanjonesblog/2014/oct/28/tower-of-london-poppies-ukip-remembrance-day

Soon the Left will be telling us that UKIP are responsible for the Iraq War, copper theft, man boobs, and the ultimate heat death of the universe.
FlagQuote · Off Topic

The whole centre-left cultural consensus that World War I was equally down to nationalism on all sides is a completely incorrect one that needs to be much more aggressively challenged. The only thing the British did wrong in the build-up to 1914 was not making it clear they would go to war earlier.

I thought it was because Archie Duke shot an Ostrich wot was "Hungary"?

Because he was hungry?

Lt. George: "The war started because of the vile Hun and his villainous empire-building."

Edmund Blackadder: "George, the British Empire at present covers a quarter of the globe, while the German Empire consists of a small sausage factory in Tanganyika. I hardly think that we can be entirely absolved of blame on the imperialistic front."

Roger

Pong

"is this what PB has turned into? A pile of old men slinging paedo allegations at each other?"

PB has a proud tradition of pricking posters hypocrisy. As it happens Sean gives as good as he gets which I like

(unlike the pathetic little girl who who continuously whines to the moderator)

weejonnie

Ishmael_X said:

SeanT said:

Pong said:

SeanT said:

Roger said:

SeanT

'Imagine if the situation was reversed: imagine if it was revealed that large gangs of white men were consistently grooming and raping THOUSANDS of Asian and black girls, and choosing their victim"

Completely horrific. It reminds me of those repulsive and grotesque middle aged white men who pray on nubile young Asian girls in Bangkok by giving them gifts and money for sordid sex. Some even come online and boast about it.

Urgh!

It also reminds me of sad, fat, ageing, retired tampon-ad directors who claimed that Jimmy Savile's infant victims probably lied, or if they didn't lie, they probably enjoyed being raped. You are always so oddly keen to exonerate the child rapists.

Why is that?

Is this what PB has turned into? A pile of old men slinging paedo allegations at each other?

I wonder how long before Mike bans all discussion of child abuse on PB. I'll go;

Before Friday: Evens
Next week: 3/1
After that: 3/1

Be fair, I didn't start the ad hominem stuff, but if it is dished out, I will happily return it, with a fried egg on top.

Anyway it is going to be difficult to avoid talking about child abuse, if this stuff coming out of Manchester is as incendiary as Channel 4 News are claiming.

We shall see. Now I must actually do some work. Salaam aleikum.

Wa aleikum salama.

The fact of a topic being in the news, does not protect it from being banned from PB.

No - but there are political implications - the BNP had a pretty strong presence in the NorthWest in 2010 (for a minority party) - Further child abuse - especially if within a religious context could improve the chances of UKIP picking up a few seats. Although they don't like the BNP (and ban them) UKIP will probably pick up a fair number of the votes - which gives a relatively good base.

Carnyx

JBriskin said:

I Hate being on Sbbc duty...

(Perhaps Easteross not so bad after all...)

Their leading with some silly Stugeion/EU thing and no mention of Murphy.

Perhaps because everyone is bored with the silence from his quarter?

Plato

FPT - thought this was worth dragging over re reply to @SeanT‌. If a Party isn't looking at their base/fishing pool from this perspective, they're morons.

I mentioned on a previous thread the *marketing behaviour* that Kipper Voters are demonstrating. It's now in Considered Buyer mode. That's dangerous for Labour and others - those conservative customers now think UKIP is a Safe Brand to buy in to.

It's not the mavericks and Early Adopters we have on here or infest other places - it's become mainstream. Anyone with a spec of marketing nous knows what's going on in terms of acceptability

JBriskin

dr_spyn said:

Harry Cole ‏@MrHarryCole 11m11 minutes ago
Hear Labour HQ are frantically calling activists to get them to S Yorkshire tomorrow. Warning party risks losing PCC byelection on 2nd prefs

Mmmm. Ed is a loser, surely not?

You bait me so much Dr Spyn I hardly know where to start!

PMQs:

From the Harmen t-shirt that I missed to the Nederland PM following the Brisky line, I honestly wouldn't know where to start.

Anyone, like a review?

manofkent2014

It seems the mood of the PCP is in decline........

Why did David Cameron set the vote for the European Arrest Warrant for before the Rochester and Strood by-election? It seems to be a way of picking a right-wing sore just at the wrong time.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/10/european-arrest-warrant-rebellion-shrinks-after-cameron-pledges-pre-rochester-vote/

JBriskin

Carnyx said:

JBriskin said:

I Hate being on Sbbc duty...

(Perhaps Easteross not so bad after all...)

Their leading with some silly Stugeion/EU thing and no mention of Murphy.

Perhaps because everyone is bored with the silence from his quarter?

Mr Kent was quoting Sky...

V. poor form from the Ukippers if untrue

TheWatcher

dr_spyn said:

Harry Cole ‏@MrHarryCole 11m11 minutes ago
Hear Labour HQ are frantically calling activists to get them to S Yorkshire tomorrow. Warning party risks losing PCC byelection on 2nd prefs

Mmmm. Ed is a loser, surely not?

Rotherham, Doncaster, Heywood...

manofkent2014

Meanwhile the Speccie mischievously floats the idea that a victory for UKIP in the PCC election could be a fore-runner to a serious attempt to unseat Miliband (he only has an 11k majority after all)

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/10/what-would-a-ukip-win-in-the-south-yorkshire-pcc-by-election-tell-us/

dr_spyn

Labour have lost it in South Yorkshire - Trust.

Say nothing, do nothing - Labour in South Yorkshire.

Someone has devised two simple slogans for UKIP on Twitter.

Peter_the_Punter

AndyJS said:

UKIP now 1.05 with Betfair / Rochester:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/market?marketId=1.101416490#/exchange/market?marketId=1.115707446&eventTypeId=2378961

Jeez, this is turning into more of a procession than Clacton.

I didn't anticipate that.

Morris_Dancer

Dr. Prasannan, whilst I like Blackadder, that's a cheap line.

The British Empire did not invade Germany, it defended France. Possessing an empire is not an evil in and of itself.

SimonStClare

SeanT said:

A potentially relevant and horrifying stat

@C4Ciaran 5m5 minutes ago
Abusers have avoided conviction in 12,000 child sex cases reported to police in Manchester over last six years. Shocking new stat. #c4news

An alarmingly high figure for Manchester police, on top of the complete failure by South Yorkshire – one has to wonder what they have been doing for the past decade when mass child rape and abuse goes completely un-investigated.

AndyJS

JBriskin said:

AndyJS said:

Scott_P said:

@MrHarryCole: Hear Labour HQ are frantically calling activists to get them to S Yorkshire tomorrow. Warning party risks losing PCC byelection on 2nd prefs

Did most PBers predict a UKIP win on yesterday's thread?

Err, wasn't it you that quoted the 1.01?

I didn't quote any odds for the South Yorkshire contest.

chestnut

If today's PMQ's was anything to go by, Labour will get nowhere on the NHS. Every criticism was confidently batted away. Miliband was much more effective on immigration, even though he has no story to be proud of.

The decline of the economy as an issue tells us what about the "cost of living crisis"?

That it isn't an effective narrative, at least not one that immediately jumps into people's minds?

Sub-consciously, the public think the government has fixed the economy.

Immigration is about the country's cultural decay.

JBriskin

AndyJS said:

JBriskin said:

AndyJS said:

Scott_P said:

@MrHarryCole: Hear Labour HQ are frantically calling activists to get them to S Yorkshire tomorrow. Warning party risks losing PCC byelection on 2nd prefs

Did most PBers predict a UKIP win on yesterday's thread?

Err, wasn't it you that quoted the 1.01?

I didn't quote any odds for the South Yorkshire contest.

Yes, I am getting confused, excusez'moi

It was you quoting a 1.01 within the last few days though wasn't it? Something to do with politics?

manofkent2014

JBriskin said:

Carnyx said:

JBriskin said:

I Hate being on Sbbc duty...

(Perhaps Easteross not so bad after all...)

Their leading with some silly Stugeion/EU thing and no mention of Murphy.

Perhaps because everyone is bored with the silence from his quarter?

Mr Kent was quoting Sky...

V. poor form from the Ukippers if untrue

Indeed it was announced as a breaking news on Sky (about an hour or so ago) that Murphy would announce he is standing in the next 24 hours and is now in print in the Telegraph.

Jim Murphy to announce his Scottish Labour leadership campaign on Thursday
Labour's shadow international development secretary will release a statement announcing his candidacy on Thursday and hold his first campaign event on Saturday

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11196726/Jim-Murphy-to-announce-his-Scottish-Labour-leadership-campaign-on-Thursday.html

I don't make such things up so keep your partisan smears to yourself!

Sunil_Prasannan

Morris_Dancer said:

Dr. Prasannan, whilst I like Blackadder, that's a cheap line.

The British Empire did not invade Germany, it defended France. Possessing an empire is not an evil in and of itself.

Correction, Mr Dancer - it was to defend Belgium, per the London Treaty of 1839.


BTW Those people living under Empire may have a different opinion about Empire than those ruling over them.

My alternate history steampunky type UK Empire would actually have been a Commonwealth from the outset, complete with an Imperial Senate, if only as an homage to Star Wars

AndyJS

JBriskin said:

AndyJS said:

JBriskin said:

AndyJS said:

Scott_P said:

@MrHarryCole: Hear Labour HQ are frantically calling activists to get them to S Yorkshire tomorrow. Warning party risks losing PCC byelection on 2nd prefs

Did most PBers predict a UKIP win on yesterday's thread?

Err, wasn't it you that quoted the 1.01?

I didn't quote any odds for the South Yorkshire contest.

Yes, I am getting confused, excusez'moi

It was you quoting a 1.01 within the last few days though wasn't it? Something to do with politics?

I've been quoting the Rochester odds at regular intervals. They haven't reached 1.01 yet though.

nigel4england

Peter_the_Punter said:

AndyJS said:

UKIP now 1.05 with Betfair / Rochester:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/market?marketId=1.101416490#/exchange/market?marketId=1.115707446&eventTypeId=2378961

Jeez, this is turning into more of a procession than Clacton.

I didn't anticipate that.

The Tories now have a major problem, do they throw the kitchen sink at it like they said they would, because if they do and still lose it looks much worse than just giving up like they did in Clacton?

TSE is supposed to be campaigning down there, is he/are you still planning to go?

Sunil_Prasannan

JBriskin said:

AndyJS said:

Scott_P said:

@MrHarryCole: Hear Labour HQ are frantically calling activists to get them to S Yorkshire tomorrow. Warning party risks losing PCC byelection on 2nd prefs

Did most PBers predict a UKIP win on yesterday's thread?

Err, wasn't it you that quoted the 1.01?

That was for Rochester, not South Yorks PCC!

JBriskin

manofkent2014 said:

JBriskin said:

Carnyx said:

JBriskin said:

I Hate being on Sbbc duty...

(Perhaps Easteross not so bad after all...)

Their leading with some silly Stugeion/EU thing and no mention of Murphy.

Perhaps because everyone is bored with the silence from his quarter?

Mr Kent was quoting Sky...

V. poor form from the Ukippers if untrue

Indeed it was announced as a breaking news on Sky (about an hour or so ago) that Murphy would announce he is standing in the next 24 hours and is now in print in the Telegraph.

Jim Murphy to announce his Scottish Labour leadership campaign on Thursday
Labour's shadow international development secretary will release a statement announcing his candidacy on Thursday and hold his first campaign event on Saturday

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11196726/Jim-Murphy-to-announce-his-Scottish-Labour-leadership-campaign-on-Thursday.html

I don't make such things up so keep your partisan smears to yourself!

Thanks - you even linked it in the first place I now remember. I guess, Carynx may well be right, old news, nothing from his team.

Note to Mr Kent and all - I Am on Sbbc duty - you really should not take what I say as personal smears.

JBriskin

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JBriskin said:

AndyJS said:

Scott_P said:

@MrHarryCole: Hear Labour HQ are frantically calling activists to get them to S Yorkshire tomorrow. Warning party risks losing PCC byelection on 2nd prefs

Did most PBers predict a UKIP win on yesterday's thread?

Err, wasn't it you that quoted the 1.01?

That was for Rochester, not South Yorks PCC!

Ja Ja Dr Prasannan - I wouldn't underestimate the excitement of a political geek book to moi

manofkent2014

JBriskin said:

manofkent2014 said:

JBriskin said:

Carnyx said:

JBriskin said:

I Hate being on Sbbc duty...

(Perhaps Easteross not so bad after all...)

Their leading with some silly Stugeion/EU thing and no mention of Murphy.

Perhaps because everyone is bored with the silence from his quarter?

Mr Kent was quoting Sky...

V. poor form from the Ukippers if untrue

Indeed it was announced as a breaking news on Sky (about an hour or so ago) that Murphy would announce he is standing in the next 24 hours and is now in print in the Telegraph.

Jim Murphy to announce his Scottish Labour leadership campaign on Thursday
Labour's shadow international development secretary will release a statement announcing his candidacy on Thursday and hold his first campaign event on Saturday

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11196726/Jim-Murphy-to-announce-his-Scottish-Labour-leadership-campaign-on-Thursday.html

I don't make such things up so keep your partisan smears to yourself!

Thanks - you even linked it in the first place I now remember. I guess, Carynx may well be right, old news, nothing from his team.

Note to Mr Kent and all - I Am on Sbbc duty - you really should not take what I say as personal smears.

There was no reason to even mention UKIP!

Morris_Dancer

Dr. Prasannan, but the fighting was in France.

Perhaps. But when Zimbabwe had 65,000% interest rates and mortality rates for both genders below that of medieval England (due to a combination of rampant AIDS and mass starvation) one suspects if another country had been running Zimbabwe instead of Mugabe it would've been in a rather better state of affairs.

JBriskin

Noted Mr Kent,

Genuinely my mistake.

Socrates

How Cameron can whip his MPs into handing over the right of habeas corpus to Brussels and then claim to be a eurosceptic is beyond me.

AndyJS

What do PBers predict for the UKIP share in Rochester? Betfair have a market for it.

Sunil_Prasannan

Morris_Dancer said:

Dr. Prasannan, but the fighting was in France.

Perhaps. But when Zimbabwe had 65,000% interest rates and mortality rates for both genders below that of medieval England (due to a combination of rampant AIDS and mass starvation) one suspects if another country had been running Zimbabwe instead of Mugabe it would've been in a rather better state of affairs.

Mostly Mr Dancer, but Battle of Ypres for one was in Belgium. And was it not true that the Allies took the opportunity to annex Germany's overseas possessions within the first few months of the war (Tanganyika aside).

That mis-management was Mugabe's fault. In contrast, independent India hasn't had such a bad innings. Neither actually have Zimbabwe's immediate Commonwealth neighbours.

JBriskin

AndyJS said:

What do PBers predict for the UKIP share in Rochester? Betfair have a market for it.

Buy at 3 match fixes per week lol

HYUFD

Maureen Lipman will no longer be voting Labour next year over Palestine
http://standpointmag.co.uk/with-prejudice-november-14-labour-lost-me-maureen-lipman-ed-miliband#comment-24798

dr_spyn

C4 leading on Gtr Manchester abuse - it can't help Labour tomorrow. Ed Miliband defenestration on the way?

David_Evershed

manofkent2014 said:

Meanwhile the Speccie mischievously floats the idea that a victory for UKIP in the PCC election could be a fore-runner to a serious attempt to unseat Miliband (he only has an 11k majority after all)

One of the reasons UKIP held their annual conference in Doncaster, next to Milibands seat.

HYUFD

Interesting Afghanistan poll shows that while Tory 2010 and LD 2010 voters do not think the invasion was worthwhile (along with UKIP and Labour voters), present Tory and LD voters do think it was worthwhile
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/10/29/public-backs-afghanistan-withdrawal/

Morris_Dancer

Dr. Prasannan, indeed, my point isn't an empire is joyous and lovely, it's that empire isn't evil in and of itself. Most of those in the Roman Empire rather liked it and was sad when it disintegrated.

Mr. Socrates, Cameron's never claimed to be a sceptic, has he?

Socrates

Morris_Dancer said:

Dr. Prasannan, but the fighting was in France.

Perhaps. But when Zimbabwe had 65,000% interest rates and mortality rates for both genders below that of medieval England (due to a combination of rampant AIDS and mass starvation) one suspects if another country had been running Zimbabwe instead of Mugabe it would've been in a rather better state of affairs.

The tyrannical rule of Mugabe does not justify autocratic rule instead. British rule did not particularly care for the natives. The literacy rate in India after two hundred years of British rule was just over 10%. Within 15 years of independence it was over 40% - more than tripling.

Socrates

Morris_Dancer said:

Dr. Prasannan, indeed, my point isn't an empire is joyous and lovely, it's that empire isn't evil in and of itself. Most of those in the Roman Empire rather liked it and was sad when it disintegrated.

Mr. Socrates, Cameron's never claimed to be a sceptic, has he?

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100061373/david-cameron-i-am-a-eurosceptic/

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Socrates, you found that quickly!

I stand corrected. Bloody daft thing to say. He's clearly at least softly pro-EU, even if he is perpetually exasperated by how meddlesome the eunuchs of Brussels are.

dr_spyn

Just noticed this - likely or not?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29815432

LD pact with Greens?

JBriskin

dr_spyn said:

Just noticed this - likely or not?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29815432

LD pact with Greens?

They'd need more seats than zero.

Which may well be the same as Ukip lest we forget.

JBriskin

Oh I'll just read it.

Quincel

dr_spyn said:

Just noticed this - likely or not?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29815432

LD pact with Greens?

Not a chance in hell. The LDs aren't giving the Greens the creditability boost in return for the couple of seats the Greens could make the difference in. Plus, the LDs are still fighting to be seen as a major party. That is gone for good if they look like they need the Greens.

JBriskin

JBriskin said:

Oh I'll just read it.

I found this, I know it's already been properly linked, but still-

RAF jets intercept Lithuanian cargo plane over Kent

HYUFD

DrSpyn/Quincel No way, the Cleggite LDs are now right of Labour, the Greens left of Labour, certainly not beyond a few MPs like Cable, Farron, Baker or George who are Green in outlook

murali_s

As various concerns viz. the NHS, the economy, cost of living, welfare etc. come to the fore, immigrants and 'immigration' will always be in the firing line. 'Twas always such...

Socrates

murali_s said:

As various concerns viz. the NHS, the economy, cost of living, welfare etc. come to the fore, immigrants and 'immigration' will always be in the firing line. 'Twas always such...

A nice story, but it is completely at odds with the facts. Immigration surged as an issue during the 2000s, when everyone was happy with Labour's debt-fuelled boom, and spending on public services surged.

JBriskin

I guess if the Fed really has done something with QE I should find at least one more link.

Give me a bit of time please.

JBriskin

BBG!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-29/fed-ends-qe-while-keeping-considerable-time-low-rate-pledge.html

RobC

JBriskin said:

JBriskin said:

Oh I'll just read it.

I found this, I know it's already been properly linked, but still-

RAF jets intercept Lithuanian cargo plane over Kent

Yes a huge sonic boom woke me from my reveries at about 4.40pm.

JBriskin

“the likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2 percent has diminished somewhat.”

Lol, even the Fed following the Brisky line.

Gisajob.

Peter_the_Punter

AndyJS said:

What do PBers predict for the UKIP share in Rochester? Betfair have a market for it.

Pretty difficult to call, because of low turnout.

I've gone for small bets at the longer odds.