I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
Are you sure that UKIP is going to gain Ed Balls's seat?
No, but they could hand it to the Tories...
Doesn't look like it is possible. The Tories are on course for zero gains from Labour.
Does anyone have a theory as to how and why Gordo managed to rake back the Tory lead in 2010?
I ask this because if, and it's a big if, Labour merely benefitted from a swing towards 'no change' then the Tories are going to romp home in 2015.
We know without doubt that there was a big move, and we know without doubt that Gordo and his merry men did nothing to deserve it. Cameron didn't obviously blow it either.
I've bet a little against Labour next year. That's partly due to Ed, partly due to Scotland, and partly due to UKIP. I wonder though if there's a bigger picture that's passed me (and others) by. Will the Tories get the Gordo swing?
The two theories are incumbency swingback and last-minute mobilisation of the anti-Tory vote. There are quite a lot of voters who don't like any of us much but who especially don't like the Conservatives; if they appear to be heading for a majority the "don't knows" tend to swing against them. That said, there really aren't that many don't knows out there, so my guess is that the current position will remain roughly the same. But none of us really know what the UKIP vote will do! - there are zero useful modern precedents to go on.
Theres also the ratting on the referendum on the Lisbon treaty which sent a slew of voters to UKIP, enough to cost them several seats
Eta What a remarkable error to have slipped through the subs:
"Its key target had been to unseat John Bercow, the House of Commons Speaker, but Ukip's Nick Farage could only muster third place."
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I really hate the word 'guestimate'. That's what an estimate *is*.
It's useful as a less precise form of estimate.
An estimate should be rigorously derived, but there are occasions when there is not the time or the data to be precise, so a 'finger in the air' is sufficient.
Rousseff has 51.1% of votes Neves has 48.9% This with 95.7% of ballots counted - Update: Neves 48.83% Rousseff 51.18 96.24% counted - Brazil newspaper Folha has declared Rousseff the winner (looks like a safe call) but results not official yet
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
Are you sure that UKIP is going to gain Ed Balls's seat?
No, but they could hand it to the Tories...
Doesn't look like it is possible. The Tories are on course for zero gains from Labour.
I think you will be proved wrong on that.
Yes but one Southampton Itchen doesn't make a summer.
Probably the strongest argument against a hung Parliament after the next GE is that I have been predicting that as the likeliest outcome since the summer of 2010.
SO - what's your view on Spurs? I thought we'd get 6th but it's looking grim....cup runs this year and try ensure we miss Europa this time (after another disaster post a Europa match)
Apparently ground-sharing with MK Dons is back on the agenda ...... Gulp! Plus the prospect of their newly rebuilt ground not being ready until the 2020-21 season.
Forgot to mention that the best young English manager is Eddie Howe.
Probably the strongest argument against a hung Parliament after the next GE is that I have been predicting that as the likeliest outcome since the summer of 2010.
SO - what's your view on Spurs? I thought we'd get 6th but it's looking grim....cup runs this year and try ensure we miss Europa this time (after another disaster post a Europa match)
Apparently ground-sharing with MK Dons is back on the agenda ...... Gulp! Plus the prospect of their newly rebuilt ground not being ready until the 2020-21 season.
MK Spurs - I'd get a season ticket then if so (and if able) as that's v convenient. Then I'd be able to enjoy their hope-dashing, always rely on to disappoint performances in person. Every cloud and all that.
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
Are you sure that UKIP is going to gain Ed Balls's seat?
No, but they could hand it to the Tories...
Doesn't look like it is possible. The Tories are on course for zero gains from Labour.
I think you will be proved wrong on that.
Any particular predictions ?
And do you expect straight Lab to Con swing or a collapse in Labour's wwc vote to UKIP giving seats to the Conservatives by 'accident' ?
Rousseff has 51.1% of votes Neves has 48.9% This with 95.7% of ballots counted - Update: Neves 48.83% Rousseff 51.18 96.24% counted - Brazil newspaper Folha has declared Rousseff the winner (looks like a safe call) but results not official yet
Looks like 52-48 will be the final result. 16 years of left wing rule in Brazil, but what do you expect if the right wingers there continually put corrupt sleazy candidates.
Theres also the ratting on the referendum on the Lisbon treaty which sent a slew of voters to UKIP
Are there any other treaties, already signed by the previous government, that you/kippers think that this government should have held a pointless referendum on?
It was perfectly obvious when Cameron made the promise to hold the referendum on the Lisbon treaty that, barring a black swan event, it would be ratified long before the election.
I didn't make the promise, he did, and then he ratted on it. The Tories opinion poll ratings, which were well into overall majority territory, decayed from then on.
That's simply not true.
The promises about Lisbon were made in the context of the "election that never was" - i.e. there was a realistic chance of an election prior to ratification
Cameron made the promise never expecting to be in the position where he would have to honour it.
But he wanted people to think there was more substance to his promise than there was hence the phraseology 'cast iron guarantee' etc.
So you're now saying that you understood his promise, that it wasn't what you said it was, but people might have believed that it was what you said it was because he said "cast iron guarantee"?
And what did I say it was ?
And I don't think people believed whatever you think I said it was but they believed the overblown impression that Cameron was happy for them to believe.
You said he ratted on the referendum promise. He didn't. You know that, as you have proved by saying "he never expected to be on the position where he would have to honour it", when you know he wasn't in that position.
So why do you keep spreading this obvious untruth?
As things stand, what are your own expectations of the outcome next May? It would be good if OGH were to organise a poll, say at each month end between now and the GE to track the collective wisdom of the PB.com community as regards their expectation of the GE result.
I've been a long-time believer in NOM: depending on my mood, I switch between Tory and Labour largest party. (Not quite as long as @antifrank, but probably from late 2011 onwards).
My view on most likely outcome would be a continuation of the current coalition.
Fundamentally, I'm of the opinion that very few people who voted Tory in 2010 have a rational reason to change their vote. Similarly, I doubt they will have won many new supporters (but some from the cling-to-nurse voters last time round to offset the UKIP slippage). EdM I don't think will appeal to many - with most LibDems reverting back to the the mother short or to NOTA - with his slight gains offset by losses in Scotland.
Thanks Charles. I can't however help but think you are understating the impact of UKIP on both the major parties, especially the Tories, but I hope you are proved correct. I believe another Con-LD coalition is unlikely, firstly because both parties have grown to dislike each other, all the more so should Clegg leave the scene as expected and secondly because their potential influence would be greatly reduced were they to lose half their MPs as seems quite possible.
I reckon if the LibDems have 30+ seats they will be up for it.
Cameron would go for it if it mean stable government, but it would be much more transactional as a relationship. Clegg has proved he can't be trusted.
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
Are you sure that UKIP is going to gain Ed Balls's seat?
No, but they could hand it to the Tories...
Doesn't look like it is possible. The Tories are on course for zero gains from Labour.
I think you will be proved wrong on that.
Yes but one Southampton Itchen doesn't make a summer.
One is greater than zero. Plus there are a few others, including Balls' seat.
I feel that with Everton, Spurs and Liverpool sidetracked with European football then fourth is up for grabs, presuming Arsenal finish third. Much as I'd like to see West Ham or Southampton get fourth I don't think their respective squads are strong enough.
If I lose then the effect on United's finances of going two years without Champions League football will be £25 well spent!
Marvellous, good luck over the rest of the season. Any chance I'll see you at Dirty Dicks in November?
So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?
I would say to this - SHITE
But since we are all aspiring writers here I will merely say-
Very Poor
I think Anna Soubry has already given up. Nick P will be back with reasonable margin. Lord A had 45% 2010 LDs switching to him and he's done a huge amount on the ground.
Like Nick the candidates in 10 of LAB's top 40 targets are retreads. It'll be interesting to see if they still have an incumbency benefit.
Have you any evidence, I mean any evidence at all, that Anna Soubry has "given up"?
I don't think she's given up, but she's probably realistic about the position. The arithmetic is intimidating (0.7% majority, 17% LibDems, no LibDem candidate yet, and that's before you start thinking about UKIP), her local party has been nearly moribund and she has a high-profile quarrel with the main non-partisan local paper. There's quite a big anti-incumbent vote as a result of this and other spats, though a lot of that will go UKIP.
Nick, I am sure you will get elected, will you continue to post if so?
Didn't NP post pre-2010? So hopefully.
Nick Palmer has been posting on PB.com from its very early days, i.e. something close on 10 years iirc.
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
No: that's the classic mistake people make.
Ball's majority was about 1,100 IIRC, and there were 1,500 votes cast for UKIP.
Your statement is only true if UKIP hadn't stood and *all* their votes transferred to the Tories, which is probably unlikely.
It's the same mistake people on here make when blaming UKIP voters for costing Cameron a majority in 2015!
I think UKIP are a value bet at 20/1 in Morley and Outwood btw
Probably the strongest argument against a hung Parliament after the next GE is that I have been predicting that as the likeliest outcome since the summer of 2010.
SO - what's your view on Spurs? I thought we'd get 6th but it's looking grim....cup runs this year and try ensure we miss Europa this time (after another disaster post a Europa match)
No surprise that we lost today. We have an inexperienced manager and a low quality, imbalanced squad. Baldini might as well have burned the Bale money and how he is still at the club is beyond me. ENIC will not spend beyond what we raise in sales unless we get in a relegation fight. PL survival is their only interest until the stadium is built and they can flog the club to get their ROI. Pray for that stadium and accept mediocrity or worse until it is open) probably around the time I am 60).
Nick, I am sure you will get elected, will you continue to post if so?
I wonder if NP has been mobilising the anti-Soubry Ukip vote and encouraging them to vote tactically?
No, though I did get one sophisticated ex-Tory voter who said he'd like me to win personally but couldn't bear to vote Labour, so he was going UKIP to give me, well, half a swing...
I'll certainly continue posting whatever happens. I've been around since 2005 or thereabouts, I think. In the early days I used to worry a bit about stuff being quoted against me, but I've relaxed because (a) there's a culture here that we don't, which is usually respected in the interest of encouraging frank discussion and (b) I don't think many voters really care if candidates have said this or that on a blog.
I'm thinking there must be some value in the skybet 50/1 on Pochettino being next PL manager sacked
By Xmas.. as long as 'arry doesn't go first though...
'Arry's got to be less than a 1/50 shot though, surely
The risk in backing Poch going, which he will, is that Arry gets sacked first and so you lose the bet on Poch and have to take it out again post Arry.
I think Levy will give Poch time, realistically who would replace him, Moyes? Spurs need proper strikers, a centre half and they won't be far away. Harry will never resign and lose the chance of a payoff but they may sack him if they lose tomorrow.
Assuming Pardew is safe and the Ginger Mourinho is firmly established then it just leaves Harry.
I bet on Moyes going to Spurs and lost - he may not fit the 'spurs' mould but he might just sort out our defence, we once tried it with George Graham.... ok, not great example but worth a try.
Poch massively underwhelmed me at Saints in the games I saw and I've never been a believer.
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
Are you sure that UKIP is going to gain Ed Balls's seat?
No, but they could hand it to the Tories...
Doesn't look like it is possible. The Tories are on course for zero gains from Labour.
I think you will be proved wrong on that.
Yes but one Southampton Itchen doesn't make a summer.
One is greater than zero. Plus there are a few others, including Balls' seat.
Just how do you see Balls losing his seat though ?
What data are you using for that - Local election results - because on a straightforward analysis it just doesn't fit.
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
I can't see Balls losing his seat and frankly hope he doesn't (That's my pocket talking though) but there was a corker on offer earlier in the parliament on Elmet and Rothwell. 9-2 for a Tory hold !
The 9/2 Con Elmet bet treasured in my account.
From the time when tim was predicting that half of each constituency's 2010 LibDem vote would effortlessly transfer to Labour.
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
Are you sure that UKIP is going to gain Ed Balls's seat?
No, but they could hand it to the Tories...
Doesn't look like it is possible. The Tories are on course for zero gains from Labour.
I think you will be proved wrong on that.
Yes but one Southampton Itchen doesn't make a summer.
One is greater than zero. Plus there are a few others, including Balls' seat.
Just how do you see Balls losing his seat though ?
What data are you using for that - Local election results - because on a straightforward analysis it just doesn't fit.
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
Are you sure that UKIP is going to gain Ed Balls's seat?
No, but they could hand it to the Tories...
Doesn't look like it is possible. The Tories are on course for zero gains from Labour.
I think you will be proved wrong on that.
Yes but one Southampton Itchen doesn't make a summer.
One is greater than zero. Plus there are a few others, including Balls' seat.
Just how do you see Balls losing his seat though ?
What data are you using for that - Local election results - because on a straightforward analysis it just doesn't fit.
I can't see a Conservative gain in Morley myself.
The Wakefield Conservatives suffered a psychological shock at coming so near in Morley and Wakefield but ultimately failing.
Probably the strongest argument against a hung Parliament after the next GE is that I have been predicting that as the likeliest outcome since the summer of 2010.
SO - what's your view on Spurs? I thought we'd get 6th but it's looking grim....cup runs this year and try ensure we miss Europa this time (after another disaster post a Europa match)
No surprise that we lost today. We have an inexperienced manager and a low quality, imbalanced squad. Baldini might as well have burned the Bale money and how he is still at the club is beyond me. ENIC will not spend beyond what we raise in sales unless we get in a relegation fight. PL survival is their only interest until the stadium is built and they can flog the club to get their ROI. Pray for that stadium and accept mediocrity or worse until it is open) probably around the time I am 60).
No surprise at all - the Geordie fans on here were suprised when I posted earlier this week that I was hoping for a point at best today.
Looking at that form table is however relegation form and that may well continue in my view. Someone posted we need Kyle Naughton back on one of the Spurs sites today - THAT is how bad and desperate some are... a man who never passes forwards and rarely manages to complete his sideways ones.
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
I can't see Balls losing his seat and frankly hope he doesn't (That's my pocket talking though) but there was a corker on offer earlier in the parliament on Elmet and Rothwell. 9-2 for a Tory hold !
The 9/2 Con Elmet bet treasured in my account.
From the time when tim was predicting that half of each constituency's 2010 LibDem vote would effortlessly transfer to Labour.
Could be a silver lining. The last time Levy spent big without selling first was the year HR joined and we were in a relegation scrap. We upgraded massively in January, moved up the table and then started competing seriously for a CL slot for the next few seasons. Relegation would be a total disaster for ENIC so they'll do whatever is necessary to avoid it. They will never speculate for the CL though - they don't need to.
I'm thinking there must be some value in the skybet 50/1 on Pochettino being next PL manager sacked
By Xmas.. as long as 'arry doesn't go first though...
'Arry's got to be less than a 1/50 shot though, surely
The risk in backing Poch going, which he will, is that Arry gets sacked first and so you lose the bet on Poch and have to take it out again post Arry.
I think Levy will give Poch time, realistically who would replace him, Moyes? Spurs need proper strikers, a centre half and they won't be far away. Harry will never resign and lose the chance of a payoff but they may sack him if they lose tomorrow.
Assuming Pardew is safe and the Ginger Mourinho is firmly established then it just leaves Harry.
I bet on Moyes going to Spurs and lost - he may not fit the 'spurs' mould but he might just sort out our defence, we once tried it with George Graham.... ok, not great example but worth a try.
Poch massively underwhelmed me at Saints in the games I saw and I've never been a believer.
Fair enough, but in order to ascertain whether Poch is next to go put yourself in Levy's shoes, who would you replace him with?
If you could get Simeone then great, but other than that realistically who is there?
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
Are you sure that UKIP is going to gain Ed Balls's seat?
No, but they could hand it to the Tories...
Doesn't look like it is possible. The Tories are on course for zero gains from Labour.
I think you will be proved wrong on that.
Yes but one Southampton Itchen doesn't make a summer.
One is greater than zero. Plus there are a few others, including Balls' seat.
Just how do you see Balls losing his seat though ?
What data are you using for that - Local election results - because on a straightforward analysis it just doesn't fit.
(Jokingly) Rod doesn't need data, he has his famous L&N electoral train model to predict the future for him:
I feel that with Everton, Spurs and Liverpool sidetracked with European football then fourth is up for grabs, presuming Arsenal finish third. Much as I'd like to see West Ham or Southampton get fourth I don't think their respective squads are strong enough.
If I lose then the effect on United's finances of going two years without Champions League football will be £25 well spent!
Marvellous, good luck over the rest of the season. Any chance I'll see you at Dirty Dicks in November?
So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?
I would say to this - SHITE
But since we are all aspiring writers here I will merely say-
Very Poor
I think Anna Soubry has already given up. Nick P will be back with reasonable margin. Lord A had 45% 2010 LDs switching to him and he's done a huge amount on the ground.
Like Nick the candidates in 10 of LAB's top 40 targets are retreads. It'll be interesting to see if they still have an incumbency benefit.
Have you any evidence, I mean any evidence at all, that Anna Soubry has "given up"?
I don't think she's given up, but she's probably realistic about the position. The arithmetic is intimidating (0.7% majority, 17% LibDems, no LibDem candidate yet, and that's before you start thinking about UKIP), her local party has been nearly moribund and she has a high-profile quarrel with the main non-partisan local paper. There's quite a big anti-incumbent vote as a result of this and other spats, though a lot of that will go UKIP.
Nick, I am sure you will get elected, will you continue to post if so?
Didn't NP post pre-2010? So hopefully.
I wasn't here then so I don't know.
I remember about a day or so after Nick lost his election he posted here using an account that still said "Nick Palmer MP"
Without a shred of pity the PB pedants leapt upon him for a perfectly innocent mistake.
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
Are you sure that UKIP is going to gain Ed Balls's seat?
No, but they could hand it to the Tories...
Doesn't look like it is possible. The Tories are on course for zero gains from Labour.
I think you will be proved wrong on that.
Any particular predictions ?
And do you expect straight Lab to Con swing or a collapse in Labour's wwc vote to UKIP giving seats to the Conservatives by 'accident' ?
I think the national swing will be not far from zero. In which case we should expect Lab/Con to swap some seats in both directions. Since swing is a summary measure, the effect of third parties is included in it. But I think it quite possible UKIP could take votes disproportionally from Labour in some places, "handing" a seat to the Tories, although I don't expect more than a couple to fall this way.
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
Are you sure that UKIP is going to gain Ed Balls's seat?
No, but they could hand it to the Tories...
Doesn't look like it is possible. The Tories are on course for zero gains from Labour.
I think you will be proved wrong on that.
Yes but one Southampton Itchen doesn't make a summer.
One is greater than zero. Plus there are a few others, including Balls' seat.
Just how do you see Balls losing his seat though ?
What data are you using for that - Local election results - because on a straightforward analysis it just doesn't fit.
My UKIP shortlist/hitlist has always had that seat as one of the best shots
@RodCrosby Could Balls conceivably lose his seat and Labour get most seats - because thats the only scenario I'd really kick myself about him losing his seat.
I work out that Balls losing his seat means we're deep into Con most seats and most likely a majority Gov't ?
I'm thinking there must be some value in the skybet 50/1 on Pochettino being next PL manager sacked
By Xmas.. as long as 'arry doesn't go first though...
'Arry's got to be less than a 1/50 shot though, surely
The risk in backing Poch going, which he will, is that Arry gets sacked first and so you lose the bet on Poch and have to take it out again post Arry.
I think Levy will give Poch time, realistically who would replace him, Moyes? Spurs need proper strikers, a centre half and they won't be far away. Harry will never resign and lose the chance of a payoff but they may sack him if they lose tomorrow.
Assuming Pardew is safe and the Ginger Mourinho is firmly established then it just leaves Harry.
I bet on Moyes going to Spurs and lost - he may not fit the 'spurs' mould but he might just sort out our defence, we once tried it with George Graham.... ok, not great example but worth a try.
Poch massively underwhelmed me at Saints in the games I saw and I've never been a believer.
Fair enough, but in order to ascertain whether Poch is next to go put yourself in Levy's shoes, who would you replace him with?
If you could get Simeone then great, but other than that realistically who is there?
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
Are you sure that UKIP is going to gain Ed Balls's seat?
No, but they could hand it to the Tories...
Doesn't look like it is possible. The Tories are on course for zero gains from Labour.
I think you will be proved wrong on that.
Yes but one Southampton Itchen doesn't make a summer.
One is greater than zero. Plus there are a few others, including Balls' seat.
Just how do you see Balls losing his seat though ?
What data are you using for that - Local election results - because on a straightforward analysis it just doesn't fit.
My UKIP shortlist/hitlist has always had that seat as one of the best shots
Worked in Thurrock and S Bas/E Thu!!
Rod thinks that the Tories are going to win it not UKIP though.
Nick, I am sure you will get elected, will you continue to post if so?
I wonder if NP has been mobilising the anti-Soubry Ukip vote and encouraging them to vote tactically?
No, though I did get one sophisticated ex-Tory voter who said he'd like me to win personally but couldn't bear to vote Labour, so he was going UKIP to give me, well, half a swing...
I'll certainly continue posting whatever happens. I've been around since 2005 or thereabouts, I think. In the early days I used to worry a bit about stuff being quoted against me, but I've relaxed because (a) there's a culture here that we don't, which is usually respected in the interest of encouraging frank discussion and (b) I don't think many voters really care if candidates have said this or that on a blog.
Fair play Nick, we disagree on almost everything but I have the utmost respect for the fact that you post under your own name.
As things stand, what are your own expectations of the outcome next May? It would be good if OGH were to organise a poll, say at each month end between now and the GE to track the collective wisdom of the PB.com community as regards their expectation of the GE result.
I've been a long-time believer in NOM: depending on my mood, I switch between Tory and Labour largest party. (Not quite as long as @antifrank, but probably from late 2011 onwards).
My view on most likely outcome would be a continuation of the current coalition.
Fundamentally, I'm of the opinion that very few people who voted Tory in 2010 have a rational reason to change their vote. Similarly, I doubt they will have won many new supporters (but some from the cling-to-nurse voters last time round to offset the UKIP slippage). EdM I don't think will appeal to many - with most LibDems reverting back to the the mother short or to NOTA - with his slight gains offset by losses in Scotland.
Thanks Charles. I can't however help but think you are understating the impact of UKIP on both the major parties, especially the Tories, but I hope you are proved correct. I believe another Con-LD coalition is unlikely, firstly because both parties have grown to dislike each other, all the more so should Clegg leave the scene as expected and secondly because their potential influence would be greatly reduced were they to lose half their MPs as seems quite possible.
I reckon if the LibDems have 30+ seats they will be up for it.
Cameron would go for it if it mean stable government, but it would be much more transactional as a relationship. Clegg has proved he can't be trusted.
It should have been obvious to Cameron and Osborne that Clegg was a habitual liar who couldn't be trusted when he proved willing to break his promise on tuition fees.
As soon as he did that the Conservatives should have been expecting Clegg to break his promises to them whenever it suited him.
@RodCrosby Could Balls conceivably lose his seat and Labour get most seats - because thats the only scenario I'd really kick myself about him losing his seat.
I work out that Balls losing his seat means we're deep into Con most seats and most likely a majority Gov't ?
Yeah, Balls losing his seat probably means a comfortable majority for the Tories.
The Tories were already punching above their weight in Morley & Outwood in 2010 anyway, surely? By all accounts, they really pumped gigantic amounts of Ashcroft money into it.
@RodCrosby Could Balls conceivably lose his seat and Labour get most seats - because thats the only scenario I'd really kick myself about him losing his seat.
I work out that Balls losing his seat means we're deep into Con most seats and most likely a majority Gov't ?
FPTP is not a deterministic system, so any marginal seat can conceivably buck the trend, especially if the trend is weak... Dorset South 2001, Cathcart 1979, Crewe 1983, Walthamstow 1987, Aberdeen South 1992?
I'm thinking there must be some value in the skybet 50/1 on Pochettino being next PL manager sacked
By Xmas.. as long as 'arry doesn't go first though...
'Arry's got to be less than a 1/50 shot though, surely
The risk in backing Poch going, which he will, is that Arry gets sacked first and so you lose the bet on Poch and have to take it out again post Arry.
I think Levy will give Poch time, realistically who would replace him, Moyes? Spurs need proper strikers, a centre half and they won't be far away. Harry will never resign and lose the chance of a payoff but they may sack him if they lose tomorrow.
Assuming Pardew is safe and the Ginger Mourinho is firmly established then it just leaves Harry.
I bet on Moyes going to Spurs and lost - he may not fit the 'spurs' mould but he might just sort out our defence, we once tried it with George Graham.... ok, not great example but worth a try.
Poch massively underwhelmed me at Saints in the games I saw and I've never been a believer.
Fair enough, but in order to ascertain whether Poch is next to go put yourself in Levy's shoes, who would you replace him with?
If you could get Simeone then great, but other than that realistically who is there?
Tony Pulis!!!
I know a story why Pulis left Palace but not posting it here!
@RodCrosby Could Balls conceivably lose his seat and Labour get most seats - because thats the only scenario I'd really kick myself about him losing his seat.
I work out that Balls losing his seat means we're deep into Con most seats and most likely a majority Gov't ?
Yeah, Balls losing his seat probably means a comfortable majority for the Tories.
The Tories were already punching above their weight in Morley & Outwood in 2010 anyway, surely? By all accounts, they really pumped gigantic amounts of Ashcroft money into it.
Indeed they really tried hard there in 2010, now though their vote in the Labour seats in the north is collapsing towards UKIP and there is no Ashcroft money now.
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
Are you sure that UKIP is going to gain Ed Balls's seat?
No, but they could hand it to the Tories...
Doesn't look like it is possible. The Tories are on course for zero gains from Labour.
I think you will be proved wrong on that.
Any particular predictions ?
And do you expect straight Lab to Con swing or a collapse in Labour's wwc vote to UKIP giving seats to the Conservatives by 'accident' ?
I think the national swing will be not far from zero. In which case we should expect Lab/Con to swap some seats in both directions. Since swing is a summary measure, the effect of third parties is included in it. But I think it quite possible UKIP could take votes disproportionally from Labour in some places, "handing" a seat to the Tories, although I don't expect more than a couple to fall this way.
At the moment...
Worthy of further analysis.
Wow bold prediction 36.9 to 29.7 in 2010 wasn't it
Strangely enough, Dumfries & Galloway might be the Tories' best chance of a gain from Labour.
Otherwise, I can maybe see the Tories falling backwards into a gain in the Midlands (somewhere like Dudley or Walsall) if UKIP take a lot of votes off Labour. Probably not Southampton Itchen as Labour have been doing decent-ish in local elections and the Euros there, and Hampstead & Kilburn looks unlikely with how relatively well Labour are doing in London.
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
Are you sure that UKIP is going to gain Ed Balls's seat?
No, but they could hand it to the Tories...
Doesn't look like it is possible. The Tories are on course for zero gains from Labour.
I think you will be proved wrong on that.
Any particular predictions ?
And do you expect straight Lab to Con swing or a collapse in Labour's wwc vote to UKIP giving seats to the Conservatives by 'accident' ?
I think the national swing will be not far from zero. In which case we should expect Lab/Con to swap some seats in both directions. Since swing is a summary measure, the effect of third parties is included in it. But I think it quite possible UKIP could take votes disproportionally from Labour in some places, "handing" a seat to the Tories, although I don't expect more than a couple to fall this way.
At the moment...
Worthy of further analysis.
So you predict Rod that CON will get 7% more votes than LAB on May 7th 2015.
Its brave certainly but the Tories are going to bleed more support to UKIP than LAB which is continuing to get the huge 2010 LD switcher support.
Perhaps you can explain how with these two elements CON will be 7% ahead of LAB.
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
No: that's the classic mistake people make.
Ball's majority was about 1,100 IIRC, and there were 1,500 votes cast for UKIP.
Your statement is only true if UKIP hadn't stood and *all* their votes transferred to the Tories, which is probably unlikely.
You'd better watch out Charles we had another idiot from the apostrophe police on the site this morning.
You are quite right about the Morley result.
Because of the strong campaign waged there by Tony Calvert and the fact that the detestable Balls was the Labour MP I think the Conservatives pretty much maxed out their vote in Morley. The UKIP vote there would have had significant number of wwc ex Labour voters disgusted with both Balls and after Rochdale Brown.
In fact, a perfectly sound theory can be put forward where Tory voters vote UKIP tactically to unseat Labour MPs in Yorkshire and the North.
@RodCrosby Could Balls conceivably lose his seat and Labour get most seats - because thats the only scenario I'd really kick myself about him losing his seat.
I work out that Balls losing his seat means we're deep into Con most seats and most likely a majority Gov't ?
Yeah, Balls losing his seat probably means a comfortable majority for the Tories.
The Tories were already punching above their weight in Morley & Outwood in 2010 anyway, surely? By all accounts, they really pumped gigantic amounts of Ashcroft money into it.
I don't think there was any Ashcroft money it was just a very energetic local campaign with a very good candidate. IIRC Tony Calvert even turned up at some PB parties to fund raise.
The Conservative leadership wasn't targeting safe wwc Labour constituencies in northern England in 2010.
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
Are you sure that UKIP is going to gain Ed Balls's seat?
No, but they could hand it to the Tories...
Doesn't look like it is possible. The Tories are on course for zero gains from Labour.
I think you will be proved wrong on that.
Any particular predictions ?
And do you expect straight Lab to Con swing or a collapse in Labour's wwc vote to UKIP giving seats to the Conservatives by 'accident' ?
I think the national swing will be not far from zero. In which case we should expect Lab/Con to swap some seats in both directions. Since swing is a summary measure, the effect of third parties is included in it. But I think it quite possible UKIP could take votes disproportionally from Labour in some places, "handing" a seat to the Tories, although I don't expect more than a couple to fall this way.
At the moment...
Worthy of further analysis.
I'm planning to do an analysis of Conservative chances in their Labour-held target seats soon.
I'm thinking there must be some value in the skybet 50/1 on Pochettino being next PL manager sacked
By Xmas.. as long as 'arry doesn't go first though...
'Arry's got to be less than a 1/50 shot though, surely
The risk in backing Poch going, which he will, is that Arry gets sacked first and so you lose the bet on Poch and have to take it out again post Arry.
I think Levy will give Poch time, realistically who would replace him, Moyes? Spurs need proper strikers, a centre half and they won't be far away. Harry will never resign and lose the chance of a payoff but they may sack him if they lose tomorrow.
Assuming Pardew is safe and the Ginger Mourinho is firmly established then it just leaves Harry.
I bet on Moyes going to Spurs and lost - he may not fit the 'spurs' mould but he might just sort out our defence, we once tried it with George Graham.... ok, not great example but worth a try.
Poch massively underwhelmed me at Saints in the games I saw and I've never been a believer.
Fair enough, but in order to ascertain whether Poch is next to go put yourself in Levy's shoes, who would you replace him with?
If you could get Simeone then great, but other than that realistically who is there?
Tony Pulis!!!
I know a story why Pulis left Palace but not posting it here!
Is it along the lines Pardew was reputed to leave his former position?
I'm thinking there must be some value in the skybet 50/1 on Pochettino being next PL manager sacked
By Xmas.. as long as 'arry doesn't go first though...
'Arry's got to be less than a 1/50 shot though, surely
The risk in backing Poch going, which he will, is that Arry gets sacked first and so you lose the bet on Poch and have to take it out again post Arry.
I think Levy will give Poch time, realistically who would replace him, Moyes? Spurs need proper strikers, a centre half and they won't be far away. Harry will never resign and lose the chance of a payoff but they may sack him if they lose tomorrow.
Assuming Pardew is safe and the Ginger Mourinho is firmly established then it just leaves Harry.
I bet on Moyes going to Spurs and lost - he may not fit the 'spurs' mould but he might just sort out our defence, we once tried it with George Graham.... ok, not great example but worth a try.
Poch massively underwhelmed me at Saints in the games I saw and I've never been a believer.
Fair enough, but in order to ascertain whether Poch is next to go put yourself in Levy's shoes, who would you replace him with?
If you could get Simeone then great, but other than that realistically who is there?
My dad (a season ticket holding spurs fan) wants Koeman. I think that's only half to wind up his saints supporting son!
Strangely enough, Dumfries & Galloway might be the Tories' best chance of a gain from Labour.
Otherwise, I can maybe see the Tories falling backwards into a gain in the Midlands (somewhere like Dudley or Walsall) if UKIP take a lot of votes off Labour. Probably not Southampton Itchen as Labour have been doing decent-ish in local elections and the Euros there, and Hampstead & Kilburn looks unlikely with how relatively well Labour are doing in London.
Interestingly enough the Tories are in a distant 3rd place in Walsall North with 21, behind UKIP with 30 and Labour with 37. I have the suspicion, aided by that constituency poll, that UKIP will do better that the Tories in Enoch Powell country.
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
Are you sure that UKIP is going to gain Ed Balls's seat?
No, but they could hand it to the Tories...
Doesn't look like it is possible. The Tories are on course for zero gains from Labour.
I think you will be proved wrong on that.
Any particular predictions ?
And do you expect straight Lab to Con swing or a collapse in Labour's wwc vote to UKIP giving seats to the Conservatives by 'accident' ?
I think the national swing will be not far from zero. In which case we should expect Lab/Con to swap some seats in both directions. Since swing is a summary measure, the effect of third parties is included in it. But I think it quite possible UKIP could take votes disproportionally from Labour in some places, "handing" a seat to the Tories, although I don't expect more than a couple to fall this way.
At the moment...
Worthy of further analysis.
So you predict Rod that CON will get 7% more votes than LAB on May 7th 2015.
Its brave certainly but the Tories are going to bleed more support to UKIP than LAB which is continuing to get the huge 2010 LD switcher support.
Perhaps you can explain how with these two elements CON will be 7% ahead of LAB.
As things stand, either OGH or Rod Crosby are set to be proved very, very wrong ..... tasty or what?
Strangely enough, Dumfries & Galloway might be the Tories' best chance of a gain from Labour.
Otherwise, I can maybe see the Tories falling backwards into a gain in the Midlands (somewhere like Dudley or Walsall) if UKIP take a lot of votes off Labour. Probably not Southampton Itchen as Labour have been doing decent-ish in local elections and the Euros there, and Hampstead & Kilburn looks unlikely with how relatively well Labour are doing in London.
If the Tories win Hampstead & Kilburn they'll be on course for a big overall majority. But they won't. Labour will win handily.
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
Are you sure that UKIP is going to gain Ed Balls's seat?
No, but they could hand it to the Tories...
Doesn't look like it is possible. The Tories are on course for zero gains from Labour.
I think you will be proved wrong on that.
Any particular predictions ?
And do you expect straight Lab to Con swing or a collapse in Labour's wwc vote to UKIP giving seats to the Conservatives by 'accident' ?
I think the national swing will be not far from zero. In which case we should expect Lab/Con to swap some seats in both directions. Since swing is a summary measure, the effect of third parties is included in it. But I think it quite possible UKIP could take votes disproportionally from Labour in some places, "handing" a seat to the Tories, although I don't expect more than a couple to fall this way.
At the moment...
Worthy of further analysis.
So you predict Rod that CON will get 7% more votes than LAB on May 7th 2015.
Its brave certainly but the Tories are going to bleed more support to UKIP than LAB which is continuing to get the huge 2010 LD switcher support.
Perhaps you can explain how with these two elements CON will be 7% ahead of LAB.
I'm thinking there must be some value in the skybet 50/1 on Pochettino being next PL manager sacked
By Xmas.. as long as 'arry doesn't go first though...
'Arry's got to be less than a 1/50 shot though, surely
The risk in backing Poch going, which he will, is that Arry gets sacked first and so you lose the bet on Poch and have to take it out again post Arry.
I think Levy will give Poch time, realistically who would replace him, Moyes? Spurs need proper strikers, a centre half and they won't be far away. Harry will never resign and lose the chance of a payoff but they may sack him if they lose tomorrow.
Assuming Pardew is safe and the Ginger Mourinho is firmly established then it just leaves Harry.
I bet on Moyes going to Spurs and lost - he may not fit the 'spurs' mould but he might just sort out our defence, we once tried it with George Graham.... ok, not great example but worth a try.
Poch massively underwhelmed me at Saints in the games I saw and I've never been a believer.
Fair enough, but in order to ascertain whether Poch is next to go put yourself in Levy's shoes, who would you replace him with?
If you could get Simeone then great, but other than that realistically who is there?
Tony Pulis!!!
I know a story why Pulis left Palace but not posting it here!
Is it along the lines Pardew was reputed to leave his former position?
Don't know why Pardew left but I vaguely remember a tale revolving round what we like to do on here.
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
Are you sure that UKIP is going to gain Ed Balls's seat?
No, but they could hand it to the Tories...
Doesn't look like it is possible. The Tories are on course for zero gains from Labour.
I think you will be proved wrong on that.
Any particular predictions ?
And do you expect straight Lab to Con swing or a collapse in Labour's wwc vote to UKIP giving seats to the Conservatives by 'accident' ?
I think the national swing will be not far from zero. In which case we should expect Lab/Con to swap some seats in both directions. Since swing is a summary measure, the effect of third parties is included in it. But I think it quite possible UKIP could take votes disproportionally from Labour in some places, "handing" a seat to the Tories, although I don't expect more than a couple to fall this way.
At the moment...
Worthy of further analysis.
So you predict Rod that CON will get 7% more votes than LAB on May 7th 2015.
Its brave certainly but the Tories are going to bleed more support to UKIP than LAB which is continuing to get the huge 2010 LD switcher support.
Perhaps you can explain how with these two elements CON will be 7% ahead of LAB.
As things stand, either OGH or Rod Crosby are set to be proved very, very wrong ..... tasty or what?
On this one the polling data supports OGH, Rod has only his L&N model. Since I am an evidence driven person I choose OGH over Rod.
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
Are you sure that UKIP is going to gain Ed Balls's seat?
No, but they could hand it to the Tories...
Doesn't look like it is possible. The Tories are on course for zero gains from Labour.
I think you will be proved wrong on that.
Any particular predictions ?
And do you expect straight Lab to Con swing or a collapse in Labour's wwc vote to UKIP giving seats to the Conservatives by 'accident' ?
I think the national swing will be not far from zero. In which case we should expect Lab/Con to swap some seats in both directions. Since swing is a summary measure, the effect of third parties is included in it. But I think it quite possible UKIP could take votes disproportionally from Labour in some places, "handing" a seat to the Tories, although I don't expect more than a couple to fall this way.
At the moment...
Worthy of further analysis.
So you predict Rod that CON will get 7% more votes than LAB on May 7th 2015.
Its brave certainly but the Tories are going to bleed more support to UKIP than LAB which is continuing to get the huge 2010 LD switcher support.
Perhaps you can explain how with these two elements CON will be 7% ahead of LAB.
As things stand, either OGH or Rod Crosby are set to be proved very, very wrong ..... tasty or what?
One things for sure - the one who is wrong will never be allowed to forget it ;-)
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
Are you sure that UKIP is going to gain Ed Balls's seat?
No, but they could hand it to the Tories...
Doesn't look like it is possible. The Tories are on course for zero gains from Labour.
I think you will be proved wrong on that.
Any particular predictions ?
And do you expect straight Lab to Con swing or a collapse in Labour's wwc vote to UKIP giving seats to the Conservatives by 'accident' ?
I think the national swing will be not far from zero. In which case we should expect Lab/Con to swap some seats in both directions. Since swing is a summary measure, the effect of third parties is included in it. But I think it quite possible UKIP could take votes disproportionally from Labour in some places, "handing" a seat to the Tories, although I don't expect more than a couple to fall this way.
At the moment...
Worthy of further analysis.
So you predict Rod that CON will get 7% more votes than LAB on May 7th 2015.
Its brave certainly but the Tories are going to bleed more support to UKIP than LAB which is continuing to get the huge 2010 LD switcher support.
Perhaps you can explain how with these two elements CON will be 7% ahead of LAB.
As things stand, either OGH or Rod Crosby are set to be proved very, very wrong ..... tasty or what?
Strangely enough, Dumfries & Galloway might be the Tories' best chance of a gain from Labour.
Otherwise, I can maybe see the Tories falling backwards into a gain in the Midlands (somewhere like Dudley or Walsall) if UKIP take a lot of votes off Labour. Probably not Southampton Itchen as Labour have been doing decent-ish in local elections and the Euros there, and Hampstead & Kilburn looks unlikely with how relatively well Labour are doing in London.
John Denham MP (of 22 years) is standing down in Southampton Itchen, taking any personal vote with him. Royston Smith (the Tory candidate) is a bit of a local hero following his performance in the HMS Astute incident. The new Labour candidate is a classic Westminster-bubble career politician, with no links to the area. Even her own local party has doubts.
The Ashcroft marginal poll showed a "tie". That was in early August, when national Labour poll shares were typically in the 36-38% band, which have declined since.
Given likely movements between now and election day, I think it's a Tory gain.
Strangely enough, Dumfries & Galloway might be the Tories' best chance of a gain from Labour.
Otherwise, I can maybe see the Tories falling backwards into a gain in the Midlands (somewhere like Dudley or Walsall) if UKIP take a lot of votes off Labour. Probably not Southampton Itchen as Labour have been doing decent-ish in local elections and the Euros there, and Hampstead & Kilburn looks unlikely with how relatively well Labour are doing in London.
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
Are you sure that UKIP is going to gain Ed Balls's seat?
No, but they could hand it to the Tories...
Doesn't look like it is possible. The Tories are on course for zero gains from Labour.
I think you will be proved wrong on that.
Any particular predictions ?
And do you expect straight Lab to Con swing or a collapse in Labour's wwc vote to UKIP giving seats to the Conservatives by 'accident' ?
I think the national swing will be not far from zero. In which case we should expect Lab/Con to swap some seats in both directions. Since swing is a summary measure, the effect of third parties is included in it. But I think it quite possible UKIP could take votes disproportionally from Labour in some places, "handing" a seat to the Tories, although I don't expect more than a couple to fall this way.
At the moment...
Worthy of further analysis.
So you predict Rod that CON will get 7% more votes than LAB on May 7th 2015.
Its brave certainly but the Tories are going to bleed more support to UKIP than LAB which is continuing to get the huge 2010 LD switcher support.
Perhaps you can explain how with these two elements CON will be 7% ahead of LAB.
If the Tories are losing way more to UKIP than Labour are, and Labour are sucking up all these LDs, how the hell are Lab and Con pretty much level pegging right now?
Strangely enough, Dumfries & Galloway might be the Tories' best chance of a gain from Labour.
Otherwise, I can maybe see the Tories falling backwards into a gain in the Midlands (somewhere like Dudley or Walsall) if UKIP take a lot of votes off Labour. Probably not Southampton Itchen as Labour have been doing decent-ish in local elections and the Euros there, and Hampstead & Kilburn looks unlikely with how relatively well Labour are doing in London.
If the Tories win Hampstead & Kilburn they'll be on course for a big overall majority. But they won't. Labour will win handily.
Hampstead will be a big labour hold, on the back of a collapsing libdem vote. The Conservatives have been invisible, unlike under the excellent Chris Philip, when they were energised. Ironically, the LibDem candidate is excellent: http://www.libdems.org.uk/maajid_nawaz
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
Are you sure that UKIP is going to gain Ed Balls's seat?
No, but they could hand it to the Tories...
Doesn't look like it is possible. The Tories are on course for zero gains from Labour.
I think you will be proved wrong on that.
Any particular predictions ?
And do you expect straight Lab to Con swing or a collapse in Labour's wwc vote to UKIP giving seats to the Conservatives by 'accident' ?
I think the national swing will be not far from zero. In which case we should expect Lab/Con to swap some seats in both directions. Since swing is a summary measure, the effect of third parties is included in it. But I think it quite possible UKIP could take votes disproportionally from Labour in some places, "handing" a seat to the Tories, although I don't expect more than a couple to fall this way.
At the moment...
Worthy of further analysis.
So you predict Rod that CON will get 7% more votes than LAB on May 7th 2015.
Its brave certainly but the Tories are going to bleed more support to UKIP than LAB which is continuing to get the huge 2010 LD switcher support.
Perhaps you can explain how with these two elements CON will be 7% ahead of LAB.
As things stand, either OGH or Rod Crosby are set to be proved very, very wrong ..... tasty or what?
One things for sure - the one who is wrong will never be allowed to forget it ;-)
Polls can change. There is a possibility that in the marginals LAB will start to lose more support to UKIP than CON. There's also a possibility that the 2010 LD switchers go elsewhere. But so far the evidence is that both big trends are continuing.
Strangely enough, Dumfries & Galloway might be the Tories' best chance of a gain from Labour.
Otherwise, I can maybe see the Tories falling backwards into a gain in the Midlands (somewhere like Dudley or Walsall) if UKIP take a lot of votes off Labour. Probably not Southampton Itchen as Labour have been doing decent-ish in local elections and the Euros there, and Hampstead & Kilburn looks unlikely with how relatively well Labour are doing in London.
And John Denham's standing down.
It could be the sort of constituency where UKIP hurt Labour at least as much as the Conservatives.
With 98% of votes counted Dilma Rousseff just been re-elected President of Brazil after the narrowest victory margin in a Brazilian election in decades. Rousseff won 51.45% to 48.55% for Neves http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-29782073
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
Are you sure that UKIP is going to gain Ed Balls's seat?
No, but they could hand it to the Tories...
Doesn't look like it is possible. The Tories are on course for zero gains from Labour.
I think you will be proved wrong on that.
Any particular predictions ?
And do you expect straight Lab to Con swing or a collapse in Labour's wwc vote to UKIP giving seats to the Conservatives by 'accident' ?
I think the national swing will be not far from zero. In which case we should expect Lab/Con to swap some seats in both directions. Since swing is a summary measure, the effect of third parties is included in it. But I think it quite possible UKIP could take votes disproportionally from Labour in some places, "handing" a seat to the Tories, although I don't expect more than a couple to fall this way.
At the moment...
Worthy of further analysis.
So you predict Rod that CON will get 7% more votes than LAB on May 7th 2015.
Its brave certainly but the Tories are going to bleed more support to UKIP than LAB which is continuing to get the huge 2010 LD switcher support.
Perhaps you can explain how with these two elements CON will be 7% ahead of LAB.
If the Tories are losing way more to UKIP than Labour are, and Labour are sucking up all these LDs, how the hell are Lab and Con pretty much level pegging right now?
Because they started 7.2% behind and are now circa 2& ahead
Strangely enough, Dumfries & Galloway might be the Tories' best chance of a gain from Labour.
Otherwise, I can maybe see the Tories falling backwards into a gain in the Midlands (somewhere like Dudley or Walsall) if UKIP take a lot of votes off Labour. Probably not Southampton Itchen as Labour have been doing decent-ish in local elections and the Euros there, and Hampstead & Kilburn looks unlikely with how relatively well Labour are doing in London.
Isn't it one of those constituencies where the Tories always do much better in local council elections, though?
In the European elections, Southampton had one of the strongest Tory->Labour swings in the south east.
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
Are you sure that UKIP is going to gain Ed Balls's seat?
No, but they could hand it to the Tories...
Doesn't look like it is possible. The Tories are on course for zero gains from Labour.
I think you will be proved wrong on that.
Any particular predictions ?
And do you expect straight Lab to Con swing or a collapse in Labour's wwc vote to UKIP giving seats to the Conservatives by 'accident' ?
I think the national swing will be not far from zero. In which case we should expect Lab/Con to swap some seats in both directions. Since swing is a summary measure, the effect of third parties is included in it. But I think it quite possible UKIP could take votes disproportionally from Labour in some places, "handing" a seat to the Tories, although I don't expect more than a couple to fall this way.
At the moment...
Worthy of further analysis.
So you predict Rod that CON will get 7% more votes than LAB on May 7th 2015.
Its brave certainly but the Tories are going to bleed more support to UKIP than LAB which is continuing to get the huge 2010 LD switcher support.
Perhaps you can explain how with these two elements CON will be 7% ahead of LAB.
Only a fool would make a hostage to fortune by giving an exact prediction at this stage, aside from the sheer impossibility of being able to justify it. I will go this far though.
I think the result will be closer to a 7% Tory lead than it will be to the current polling.
Odds in Morley and Outwood Paddy Power and Ladbrokes
Labour 1/10 1/8 Conservative 6 5 UKIP 20 20 Liberal Democrats 100 100
Is Rod drunk or can he see something nobody else can.
With a very sizable BNP vote there I think UKIP and the Tories will be close in Morley. A bet for UKIP there, but just for trading, might be warranted until UKIP's odds close in towards the Tories odds level.
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
Are you sure that UKIP is going to gain Ed Balls's seat?
No, but they could hand it to the Tories...
Doesn't look like it is possible. The Tories are on course for zero gains from Labour.
I think you will be proved wrong on that.
Any particular predictions ?
And do you expect straight Lab to Con swing or a collapse in Labour's wwc vote to UKIP giving seats to the Conservatives by 'accident' ?
I think the national swing will be not far from zero. In which case we should expect Lab/Con to swap some seats in both directions. Since swing is a summary measure, the effect of third parties is included in it. But I think it quite possible UKIP could take votes disproportionally from Labour in some places, "handing" a seat to the Tories, although I don't expect more than a couple to fall this way.
At the moment...
Worthy of further analysis.
So you predict Rod that CON will get 7% more votes than LAB on May 7th 2015.
Its brave certainly but the Tories are going to bleed more support to UKIP than LAB which is continuing to get the huge 2010 LD switcher support.
Perhaps you can explain how with these two elements CON will be 7% ahead of LAB.
If the Tories are losing way more to UKIP than Labour are, and Labour are sucking up all these LDs, how the hell are Lab and Con pretty much level pegging right now?
I go by Lord A's and other marginals polling. Its what happens in these that will determine the outcome.
I think there's a real possibility that LAB could get a majority and be in second place on national vote shares.
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
Are you sure that UKIP is going to gain Ed Balls's seat?
No, but they could hand it to the Tories...
Doesn't look like it is possible. The Tories are on course for zero gains from Labour.
I think you will be proved wrong on that.
Any particular predictions ?
And do you expect straight Lab to Con swing or a collapse in Labour's wwc vote to UKIP giving seats to the Conservatives by 'accident' ?
I think the national swing will be not far from zero. In which case we should expect Lab/Con to swap some seats in both directions. Since swing is a summary measure, the effect of third parties is included in it. But I think it quite possible UKIP could take votes disproportionally from Labour in some places, "handing" a seat to the Tories, although I don't expect more than a couple to fall this way.
At the moment...
Worthy of further analysis.
So you predict Rod that CON will get 7% more votes than LAB on May 7th 2015.
Its brave certainly but the Tories are going to bleed more support to UKIP than LAB which is continuing to get the huge 2010 LD switcher support.
Perhaps you can explain how with these two elements CON will be 7% ahead of LAB.
The only way Rod's theory is credible is if a lot of Brown conservatives go back to the Tories in 2015. There has been little Tory>Lab movement this parliament but I suppose Rod would say that means Cameron will eat into Lab's 2010 vote on the day.
Aside fromEds firewall what about the 30% of 2010 Lib Dems currently saying don't know? They're usually an even bigger section than the Lib>Lab switchers. Of course the Libs are crossing their fingers many of these will come back. My guess is they will either come out and vote Lib if only for tactical reasons or abstain in the safe seats. Personally I don't think Miliband has squeezed enough out of the 2010 Lib Dem orange. Makes more sense than going after Tory voters anyway.
Odds in Morley and Outwood Paddy Power and Ladbrokes
Labour 1/10 1/8 Conservative 6 5 UKIP 20 20 Liberal Democrats 100 100
Is Rod drunk or can he see something nobody else can.
With a very sizable BNP vote there I think UKIP and the Tories will be close in Morley. A bet for UKIP there, but just for trading, might be warranted until UKIP's odds close in towards the Tories odds level.
It's interesting that Mike Smithson in the thread header quotes Election Forecast UK's prediction of a 81% probability of there being a NOM outcome at GE 15, yet fails to make any reference to their prediction that the SNP will win 21 seats.
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
Are you sure that UKIP is going to gain Ed Balls's seat?
No, but they could hand it to the Tories...
Doesn't look like it is possible. The Tories are on course for zero gains from Labour.
I think you will be proved wrong on that.
Any particular predictions ?
And do you expect straight Lab to Con swing or a collapse in Labour's wwc vote to UKIP giving seats to the Conservatives by 'accident' ?
I think the national swing will be not far from zero. In which case we should expect Lab/Con to swap some seats in both directions. Since swing is a summary measure, the effect of third parties is included in it. But I think it quite possible UKIP could take votes disproportionally from Labour in some places, "handing" a seat to the Tories, although I don't expect more than a couple to fall this way.
At the moment...
Worthy of further analysis.
So you predict Rod that CON will get 7% more votes than LAB on May 7th 2015.
Its brave certainly but the Tories are going to bleed more support to UKIP than LAB which is continuing to get the huge 2010 LD switcher support.
Perhaps you can explain how with these two elements CON will be 7% ahead of LAB.
Only a fool would make a hostage to fortune by giving an exact prediction at this stage, aside from the sheer impossibility of being able to justify it. I will go this far though.
I think the result will be closer to a 7% Tory lead than it will be to the current polling.
Fine. But what are the voting dynamics behind that?
I've just got back from the pub having a drink with two guys buzzing about a UKIP meeting they'd been to. The purples are not going away and are going to eat into the vote shares of all parties. At the moment CON is most affected.
Strangely enough, Dumfries & Galloway might be the Tories' best chance of a gain from Labour.
Otherwise, I can maybe see the Tories falling backwards into a gain in the Midlands (somewhere like Dudley or Walsall) if UKIP take a lot of votes off Labour. Probably not Southampton Itchen as Labour have been doing decent-ish in local elections and the Euros there, and Hampstead & Kilburn looks unlikely with how relatively well Labour are doing in London.
Isn't it one of those constituencies where the Tories always do much better in local council elections, though?
In the European elections, Southampton had one of the strongest Tory->Labour swings in the south east.
The only way Rod's theory is credible is if a lot of Brown conservatives go back to the Tories in 2015. There has been little Tory>Lab movement this parliament but I suppose Rod would say that means Cameron will eat into Lab's 2010 vote on the day.
Aside fromEds firewall what about the 30% of 2010 Lib Dems currently saying don't know? They're usually an even bigger section than the Lib>Lab switchers. Of course the Libs are crossing their fingers many of these will come back. My guess is they will either come out and vote Lib if only for tactical reasons or abstain in the safe seats. Personally I don't think Miliband has squeezed enough out of the 2010 Lib Dem orange. Makes more sense than going after Tory voters anyway.
Labour could potentially fall back from their 2010 performance without losing a single vote to the Tories. Working-class Labour supporters who stuck with the party even in 2010 finally have enough and go to UKIP, while the 2010 LD converts go to the Greens at the last minute because they're put off by Ed Balls's talk of cuts (remember, the very reason most of them are furious with the Lib Dems in the first place is because they signed up to Tory economic policies, so I can't understand why the Labour leadership are complacently assuming they'll all vote Labour if they do the same thing).
Strangely enough, Dumfries & Galloway might be the Tories' best chance of a gain from Labour.
Otherwise, I can maybe see the Tories falling backwards into a gain in the Midlands (somewhere like Dudley or Walsall) if UKIP take a lot of votes off Labour. Probably not Southampton Itchen as Labour have been doing decent-ish in local elections and the Euros there, and Hampstead & Kilburn looks unlikely with how relatively well Labour are doing in London.
If the Tories win Hampstead & Kilburn they'll be on course for a big overall majority. But they won't. Labour will win handily.
Hampstead will be a big labour hold, on the back of a collapsing libdem vote. The Conservatives have been invisible, unlike under the excellent Chris Philip, when they were energised. Ironically, the LibDem candidate is excellent: http://www.libdems.org.uk/maajid_nawaz
rcs - Several months ago you made reference to your planned launch of "son of VIPA" since when I can't recall seeing anything further about this. Are you still planning to launch this seat prediction software ahead of the GE?
I really don't see the interest in Dumfries & Galloway - Labour have a majority there of over 7000.
When have the Scottish Tories ever had a gain of that magnitude ?
Stuart Dickson pointed it out when it was 25-1 at Ladbrokes. I searched in vain for the market, and finally spotted it at 8-1 (It was on the right hand side and out of alphabetical order for some reason), I wasn't altogether convinced that 8-1 was great value, so I ended up having a fiver on. If I'd have been able to get hold of the 25-1 may have been £20.
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
Are you sure that UKIP is going to gain Ed Balls's seat?
No, but they could hand it to the Tories...
Doesn't look like it is possible. The Tories are on course for zero gains from Labour.
I think you will be proved wrong on that.
Any particular predictions ?
And do you expect straight Lab to Con swing or a collapse in Labour's wwc vote to UKIP giving seats to the Conservatives by 'accident' ?
I think the national swing will be not far from zero. In which case we should expect Lab/Con to swap some seats in both directions. Since swing is a summary measure, the effect of third parties is included in it. But I think it quite possible UKIP could take votes disproportionally from Labour in some places, "handing" a seat to the Tories, although I don't expect more than a couple to fall this way.
At the moment...
Worthy of further analysis.
So you predict Rod that CON will get 7% more votes than LAB on May 7th 2015.
Its brave certainly but the Tories are going to bleed more support to UKIP than LAB which is continuing to get the huge 2010 LD switcher support.
Perhaps you can explain how with these two elements CON will be 7% ahead of LAB.
Only a fool would make a hostage to fortune by giving an exact prediction at this stage, aside from the sheer impossibility of being able to justify it. I will go this far though.
I think the result will be closer to a 7% Tory lead than it will be to the current polling.
Fine. But what are the voting dynamics behind that?
I've just got back from the pub having a drink with two guys buzzing about a UKIP meeting they'd been to. The purples are not going away and are going to eat into the vote shares of all parties. At the moment CON is most affected.
That is true Mike but as we get nearer to the GE, when the public at large are subjected to Ed in the debates, I think more of the WWC will turn to UKIP. What is Ed going to tell them, sorry but you are too stupid to have an a EU referendum? There will be more immigration not less so don't expect your income to rise anytime soon?
I also think plenty of Lib Dems will vote green rather than Ed.
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
Are you sure that UKIP is going to gain Ed Balls's seat?
No, but they could hand it to the Tories...
Doesn't look like it is possible. The Tories are on course for zero gains from Labour.
I think you will be proved wrong on that.
Any particular predictions ?
And do you expect straight Lab to Con swing or a collapse in Labour's wwc vote to UKIP giving seats to the Conservatives by 'accident' ?
Worthy of further analysis.
So you predict Rod that CON will get 7% more votes than LAB on May 7th 2015.
Its brave certainly but the Tories are going to bleed more support to UKIP than LAB which is continuing to get the huge 2010 LD switcher support.
Perhaps you can explain how with these two elements CON will be 7% ahead of LAB.
If the Tories are losing way more to UKIP than Labour are, and Labour are sucking up all these LDs, how the hell are Lab and Con pretty much level pegging right now?
That's easy, it's the SNP and, with 2010 LD votes, marginally the Greens.
Since the begging of the year I recon UKIP has sucked 1.5% from Labour, SNP another 1.5% and the Greens another 1.5%. The Tories are stable this year because they have gained the same number of LD that they have lost to UKIP.
But they can't remain equal forever if this thing continues, there is a maximum level that the SNP can suck from Labour, and the Tories from LD to replace UKIP loses. Also Labour can move towards the left in order to gain back those SNP and Green votes without losing the 2010 LD (because they are left wing too), while the Tories can't move to the right for UKIP without risking those 2010 LD votes (orange bookers).
Tactically Labour has the advantage. And with that Goodnight.
Strangely enough, Dumfries & Galloway might be the Tories' best chance of a gain from Labour.
Otherwise, I can maybe see the Tories falling backwards into a gain in the Midlands (somewhere like Dudley or Walsall) if UKIP take a lot of votes off Labour. Probably not Southampton Itchen as Labour have been doing decent-ish in local elections and the Euros there, and Hampstead & Kilburn looks unlikely with how relatively well Labour are doing in London.
Interestingly enough the Tories are in a distant 3rd place in Walsall North with 21, behind UKIP with 30 and Labour with 37. I have the suspicion, aided by that constituency poll, that UKIP will do better that the Tories in Enoch Powell country.
And Osborne has failed on industrial production, on productivity and on the balance of payments. Meanwhile our competitors grow in number and strength.
Really?
Who are these 'competitors' who are doing better than Osborne?
You can just about make a case for the US - but you'd first have to adjust for the shale oil/gas effect and also correct for the fact that exports account for such a small proportion of the US economy, so the US is nothing like as exposed to the Eurozone as we are.
Other than that, there is not a major developed economy in the world doing better than we are at the moment. Osborne, starting from an abysmal inheritance from Labour, has achieved a staggeringly good result - and with no measurable deterioration in public services, and without an unemployment spike. Bravo!
OGH - I think a Lab majority having come 2nd in vote share on maybe 33/34% is looking more and more possible. Only really likely if they hold up well in Scotland meaning that the Miliband government would be almost comically illegitimate.
It depends on so many things. How many 2010 Lib Dems will vote Labour in the marginals. Where are they losing most votes to the Greens? Where will Ukip's marginals vote come from?
I think you are wrong on how local reputations will matter a lot next time. The result is up in the air, it's a stark choice between Miliband and Cameron/the Tories. Plenty of nice local MPs will be destroyed in the collateral.
So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?
I would say to this - SHITE
But since we are all aspiring writers here I will merely say-
Very Poor
I think Anna Soubry has already given up. Nick P will be back with reasonable margin. Lord A had 45% 2010 LDs switching to him and he's done a huge amount on the ground.
Like Nick the candidates in 10 of LAB's top 40 targets are retreads. It'll be interesting to see if they still have an incumbency benefit.
Have you any evidence, I mean any evidence at all, that Anna Soubry has "given up"?
I Thgo UKIP.
Given that she's the sort of person that makes smears against political opponents' sexual habits, she deserves to lose her job.
She joked that he looked like he had a finger up his bum and was enjoying it. If that's a "smear" against UKIP that upsets you then I worry how you'll cope with what the press will throw at UKIP during the election campaign...
I think he'll cope just fine.
Judging by the South Yorkshire PPC campaign, UKIP seem to have heavy artillery prepared to bombard Labour, at least.
And Osborne has failed on industrial production, on productivity and on the balance of payments. Meanwhile our competitors grow in number and strength.
Really?
Who are these 'competitors' who are doing better than Osborne?
You can just about make a case for the US - but you'd first have to adjust for the shale oil/gas effect and also correct for the fact that exports account for such a small proportion of the US economy, so the US is nothing like as exposed to the Eurozone as we are.
Other than that, there is not a major developed economy in the world doing better than we are at the moment. Osborne, starting from an abysmal inheritance from Labour, has achieved a staggeringly good result - and with no measurable deterioration in public services, and without an unemployment spike. Bravo!
Agree totally and been saying so on here for months.
I really don't see the interest in Dumfries & Galloway - Labour have a majority there of over 7000.
When have the Scottish Tories ever had a gain of that magnitude ?
Stuart Dickson pointed it out when it was 25-1 at Ladbrokes. I searched in vain for the market, and finally spotted it at 8-1 (It was on the right hand side and out of alphabetical order for some reason), I wasn't altogether convinced that 8-1 was great value, so I ended up having a fiver on. If I'd have been able to get hold of the 25-1 may have been £20.
Stuart Dickson's predictions in 2010 left more than a little to be desired.
Comments
http://eleicoes.folha.uol.com.br/2014/2turno/mapainterativo/index.shtml
An estimate should be rigorously derived, but there are occasions when there is not the time or the data to be precise, so a 'finger in the air' is sufficient.
And do you expect straight Lab to Con swing or a collapse in Labour's wwc vote to UKIP giving seats to the Conservatives by 'accident' ?
16 years of left wing rule in Brazil, but what do you expect if the right wingers there continually put corrupt sleazy candidates.
So why do you keep spreading this obvious untruth?
Cameron would go for it if it mean stable government, but it would be much more transactional as a relationship. Clegg has proved he can't be trusted.
I think UKIP are a value bet at 20/1 in Morley and Outwood btw
I'll certainly continue posting whatever happens. I've been around since 2005 or thereabouts, I think. In the early days I used to worry a bit about stuff being quoted against me, but I've relaxed because (a) there's a culture here that we don't, which is usually respected in the interest of encouraging frank discussion and (b) I don't think many voters really care if candidates have said this or that on a blog.
Poch massively underwhelmed me at Saints in the games I saw and I've never been a believer.
What data are you using for that - Local election results - because on a straightforward analysis it just doesn't fit.
From the time when tim was predicting that half of each constituency's 2010 LibDem vote would effortlessly transfer to Labour.
The Wakefield Conservatives suffered a psychological shock at coming so near in Morley and Wakefield but ultimately failing.
In the next electoral cycle though ...
Looking at that form table is however relegation form and that may well continue in my view. Someone posted we need Kyle Naughton back on one of the Spurs sites today - THAT is how bad and desperate some are... a man who never passes forwards and rarely manages to complete his sideways ones.
If you could get Simeone then great, but other than that realistically who is there?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUjWVrTDKkI
Without a shred of pity the PB pedants leapt upon him for a perfectly innocent mistake.
There's no mercy on these pages
At the moment...
Worthy of further analysis.
Worked in Thurrock and S Bas/E Thu!!
I work out that Balls losing his seat means we're deep into Con most seats and most likely a majority Gov't ?
As soon as he did that the Conservatives should have been expecting Clegg to break his promises to them whenever it suited him.
The Tories were already punching above their weight in Morley & Outwood in 2010 anyway, surely? By all accounts, they really pumped gigantic amounts of Ashcroft money into it.
Anyway I'm out of here before TSE turns up to tell us how much he won (again) betting against Spurs....
That is some swingback
Otherwise, I can maybe see the Tories falling backwards into a gain in the Midlands (somewhere like Dudley or Walsall) if UKIP take a lot of votes off Labour. Probably not Southampton Itchen as Labour have been doing decent-ish in local elections and the Euros there, and Hampstead & Kilburn looks unlikely with how relatively well Labour are doing in London.
Its brave certainly but the Tories are going to bleed more support to UKIP than LAB which is continuing to get the huge 2010 LD switcher support.
Perhaps you can explain how with these two elements CON will be 7% ahead of LAB.
The Conservative leadership wasn't targeting safe wwc Labour constituencies in northern England in 2010.
Lab 31.5%
UKIP 22.9% (4 wards contested out of 5)
Morley Independents 19.4% (2 wards)
Con 17.4%
LD 3.2%
Greens 1.9% (2 wards)
Others 3.5%
Wakefield constituency
Lab 41.7%
Con 24.8%
UKIP 20.4% (4 wards out of 6)
LD 5% (5 wards)
Greens 4.8% (2 wards)
I have the suspicion, aided by that constituency poll, that UKIP will do better that the Tories in Enoch Powell country.
House.
Since I am an evidence driven person I choose OGH over Rod.
Labour 1/10 1/8 Conservative 6 5
UKIP 20 20 Liberal Democrats 100 100
Is Rod drunk or can he see something nobody else can.
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/oct/26/my-house-in-the-middle-of-ed-milibands-street
The Ashcroft marginal poll showed a "tie". That was in early August, when national Labour poll shares were typically in the 36-38% band, which have declined since.
Given likely movements between now and election day, I think it's a Tory gain.
It could be the sort of constituency where UKIP hurt Labour at least as much as the Conservatives.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-29782073
Simples
Lab 33.7%
Con 29.8%
LD 21.2%
Itchen
Con 33.67
Lab 33.12
UKIP 21.04
LD 6.23
In the European elections, Southampton had one of the strongest Tory->Labour swings in the south east.
I think the result will be closer to a 7% Tory lead than it will be to the current polling.
A bet for UKIP there, but just for trading, might be warranted until UKIP's odds close in towards the Tories odds level.
I think there's a real possibility that LAB could get a majority and be in second place on national vote shares.
Aside fromEds firewall what about the 30% of 2010 Lib Dems currently saying don't know? They're usually an even bigger section than the Lib>Lab switchers. Of course the Libs are crossing their fingers many of these will come back. My guess is they will either come out and vote Lib if only for tactical reasons or abstain in the safe seats. Personally I don't think Miliband has squeezed enough out of the 2010 Lib Dem orange. Makes more sense than going after Tory voters anyway.
This isn't one of them comfortable LAB hold IMO
I've just got back from the pub having a drink with two guys buzzing about a UKIP meeting they'd been to. The purples are not going away and are going to eat into the vote shares of all parties. At the moment CON is most affected.
Con - 5
Lab +9
UKIP +12
When have the Scottish Tories ever had a gain of that magnitude ?
Labour could potentially fall back from their 2010 performance without losing a single vote to the Tories. Working-class Labour supporters who stuck with the party even in 2010 finally have enough and go to UKIP, while the 2010 LD converts go to the Greens at the last minute because they're put off by Ed Balls's talk of cuts (remember, the very reason most of them are furious with the Lib Dems in the first place is because they signed up to Tory economic policies, so I can't understand why the Labour leadership are complacently assuming they'll all vote Labour if they do the same thing).
How are the Tories level pegging?
Any chance of that?
I do remember seeing an analysis that guestimated that UKIP cost the Tories 7-8 seats vs the 20 the Telegraph claims (I think it may have been Rawlings & Thrasher, but wouldn't swear to it)
I'm pretty sure that the 2010 kippers prevented the unseating of Ed Balls
They may cause it this time...
Are you sure that UKIP is going to gain Ed Balls's seat?
No, but they could hand it to the Tories...
Doesn't look like it is possible.
The Tories are on course for zero gains from Labour.
I think you will be proved wrong on that.
Any particular predictions ?
And do you expect straight Lab to Con swing or a collapse in Labour's wwc vote to UKIP giving seats to the Conservatives by 'accident' ?
I think the national swing will be not far from zero. In which case we should expect Lab/Con to swap some seats in both directions. Since swing is a summary measure, the effect of third parties is included in it. But I think it quite possible UKIP could take votes disproportionally from Labour in some places, "handing" a seat to the Tories, although I don't expect more than a couple to fall this way.
At the moment...
Worthy of further analysis.
So you predict Rod that CON will get 7% more votes than LAB on May 7th 2015.
Its brave certainly but the Tories are going to bleed more support to UKIP than LAB which is continuing to get the huge 2010 LD switcher support.
Perhaps you can explain how with these two elements CON will be 7% ahead of LAB.
Only a fool would make a hostage to fortune by giving an exact prediction at this stage, aside from the sheer impossibility of being able to justify it. I will go this far though.
I think the result will be closer to a 7% Tory lead than it will be to the current polling.
Fine. But what are the voting dynamics behind that?
I've just got back from the pub having a drink with two guys buzzing about a UKIP meeting they'd been to. The purples are not going away and are going to eat into the vote shares of all parties. At the moment CON is most affected.
That is true Mike but as we get nearer to the GE, when the public at large are subjected to Ed in the debates, I think more of the WWC will turn to UKIP. What is Ed going to tell them, sorry but you are too stupid to have an a EU referendum? There will be more immigration not less so don't expect your income to rise anytime soon?
I also think plenty of Lib Dems will vote green rather than Ed.
Since the begging of the year I recon UKIP has sucked 1.5% from Labour, SNP another 1.5% and the Greens another 1.5%.
The Tories are stable this year because they have gained the same number of LD that they have lost to UKIP.
But they can't remain equal forever if this thing continues, there is a maximum level that the SNP can suck from Labour, and the Tories from LD to replace UKIP loses.
Also Labour can move towards the left in order to gain back those SNP and Green votes without losing the 2010 LD (because they are left wing too), while the Tories can't move to the right for UKIP without risking those 2010 LD votes (orange bookers).
Tactically Labour has the advantage.
And with that Goodnight.
GE2010 Lab 29.7% Add 8% from LD minus 3% to UKIP = 34%
Who are these 'competitors' who are doing better than Osborne?
You can just about make a case for the US - but you'd first have to adjust for the shale oil/gas effect and also correct for the fact that exports account for such a small proportion of the US economy, so the US is nothing like as exposed to the Eurozone as we are.
Other than that, there is not a major developed economy in the world doing better than we are at the moment. Osborne, starting from an abysmal inheritance from Labour, has achieved a staggeringly good result - and with no measurable deterioration in public services, and without an unemployment spike. Bravo!
It depends on so many things. How many 2010 Lib Dems will vote Labour in the marginals. Where are they losing most votes to the Greens? Where will Ukip's marginals vote come from?
I think you are wrong on how local reputations will matter a lot next time. The result is up in the air, it's a stark choice between Miliband and Cameron/the Tories. Plenty of nice local MPs will be destroyed in the collateral.
Judging by the South Yorkshire PPC campaign, UKIP seem to have heavy artillery prepared to bombard Labour, at least.
Tim Fortescue? Mere heavy machine gun fire.