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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No Overall Majority now an even hotter favourite for GE15

The coming general election really is quite extraordinary. I can’t recall a time ever when all the main political parties and their leaders have been viewed with such low esteem and the polls are very tight.

Read the full story here

JBriskin

"Detrroit within range" !! (Channel 4)

isam

Lack of funds meant I haven't bet this at all, but many were calling it the value at 6/4, and I have never really been able to see how it hasn't been a value bet

AlastairMeeks

I've been publicly backing NOM since 2010 and for most of that time saw it as a 1/2 shot. Oddly, I feel a little less comfortable about that now precisely because both Labour and the Conservatives are polling so badly. Either one of them could streak to the finish line from here on the back of a purple patch leaving the other main party flat-footed (rather more likely Labour than the Conservatives). But I still see 8/11 as value.

JBriskin

EXCITING!!!

JBriskin

I'm on 7.8 at 48 yards...

FTR...

JBriskin

Double fail

It was 43...

JBriskin

48!!!

JBriskin

GOOD TO GO

BRISKY 100

Paul_Mid_Beds

Equally possible as I see it is a pathetically small Conservative majority due to the Labour vote being split 1983 style by UKIP.

JBriskin

Green pen-

50p e/w BETS ON THE GRAND NATIONAL WILL ALWAYS BE ALLOWED

Fuck you Channel4!

Danny565

I can see a tiny Tory majority, with them largely holding off Labour in the main marginals and taking about 20 seats off the Lib Dems (I'm not really sure I really buy the theory of the Lib Dems holding up better where the Tories are their main opposition).

Labour + the Conservatives' combined share of the vote to probably decline on 2010, which is something no-one saw coming initially after the Lib Dems' meltdown (at one point wasn't it quite a common argument that BOTH the two main parties could increase next time?).

AndreaParma_82

Scottish Labour Executive Committee met this afternoon to set timetable of leadership election. Leader to be announced on December 13th

AlastairMeeks

A new post on the secondary effects of the Greens:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/environmentally-unfriendly-who-loses.html

Though I say it myself, I found this subject interesting.

isam

FPT

GeoffM • Posts: 1,663
Those who insist on a "minimum wage" must accept that it will become the default wage for the low skilled and low productivity group. An employer has no incentive or need to pay just slightly above

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

As long as we have mass immigration of economic migrants the amount of people on the minimum wage is bound to increase... any job that is paid £10 ph will soon become a £6.50ph and so on

The bosses wont lower the prices for consumer s though, so everything costs more despite the wage freeze/deflation. Mass immigration just pays for rich peoples profit margin to get bigger

JBriskin

antifrank said:

A new post on the secondary effects of the Greens:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/environmentally-unfriendly-who-loses.html

Though I say it myself, I found this subject interesting.

Are you like my nemesis or something???

anotherDave

Surely the collapse of the LDs makes another hung parliament less rather than more likely?

The Independent's article on Conservative Party funds being directed towards defence rather than target seats suggests a Labour majority.

MikeSmithson

Danny565 said:

I can see a tiny Tory majority, with them largely holding off Labour in the main marginals and taking about 20 seats off the Lib Dems (I'm not really sure I really buy the theory of the Lib Dems holding up better where the Tories are their main opposition).

Labour + the Conservatives' combined share of the vote to probably decline on 2010, which is something no-one saw coming initially after the Lib Dems' meltdown (at one point wasn't it quite a common argument that BOTH the two main parties could increase next time?).

So you are totally ignoring Lord A's extensive seat polling. Foolish I'd suggest.

MikeSmithson

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Equally possible as I see it is a pathetically small Conservative majority due to the Labour vote being split 1983 style by UKIP.

And UKIP is not going to spit the CON vote as is shown very sharply in Lord A's extensive poll. Ignore at your peril my friend.

FalseFlag

anotherDave said:

Surely the collapse of the LDs makes another hung parliament less rather than more likely?

The Independent's article on Conservative Party funds being directed towards defence rather than target seats suggests a Labour majority.

I doubt they have any more idea about what will happen.

JBriskin

isam said:

FPT

GeoffM • Posts: 1,663
Those who insist on a "minimum wage" must accept that it will become the default wage for the low skilled and low productivity group. An employer has no incentive or need to pay just slightly above

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

As long as we have mass immigration of economic migrants the amount of people on the minimum wage is bound to increase... any job that is paid £10 ph will soon become a £6.50ph and so on

The bosses wont lower the prices for consumer s though, so everything costs more despite the wage freeze/deflation. Mass immigration just pays for rich peoples profit margin to get bigger

I'm only replying because of my epic wins today and Ogh joinging the fray.

Basically-

As I see it-

Every job is 7ph. Polish speak english (not all). Natives speak english. It's a fair enough playing field.

That's my analysis.

david_kendrick1

UKIP would be well pleased with NOM. As has been repeatedly stated, we wouldn't win an out referendum against all the other party leaders campaigning to stay in. Some tories on here claim that makes us 'frit'. We'll only get one chance of a referendum; it would be odd if we were not nervous of losing it.

NOM makes Brexit more likely.

Socrates

I've been saying NOM resulting in a Lib-Lab coalition for some time. I've seen nothing that would change my mind. If it happens, the result would be fantastic for UKIP's electoral prospects: just a couple of years in there will be huge numbers of disillusioned Lib-Lab voters.

AndreaParma_82

Boy Sarwar soon to be live on SKY discussing SLAB leadership election timetable

taffys

The mixed messages from Fallon and Truss today shows the electorate the conservatives clearly do not have a policy on immigration and Europe beyond sound, fury and the status quo.

At least milliband is honest about his policy.

Ishmael_X

MikeSmithson said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Equally possible as I see it is a pathetically small Conservative majority due to the Labour vote being split 1983 style by UKIP.

And UKIP is not going to spit the CON vote as is shown very sharply in Lord A's extensive poll. Ignore at your peril my friend.

That is doing my head in. Did you mean to put a question mark after "poll"?

AndreaParma_82

Nominations open on 31st October and close on Tuesday 4th November

Ballot begins on Nov 17

JBriskin

AndreaParma_82 said:

Boy Sarwar soon to be live on SKY discussing SLAB leadership election timetable

I hope you have your notebook out and will give us the relevant info in the fullness of time Andrea

isam

.

dr_spyn

Looks as if Tony Benn had some good IHT advisers...Stansgate Abbey also left in a family trust.

"The former Labour Cabinet Minister, who died aged 88 in March, left an estate of £5,085,001, reduced after liabilities to £5,020,389, probate records revealed yesterday."

Read more: http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Tony-Benn-s-reveals-did-leave-penny-Labour-Party/story-23553362-detail/story.html#ixzz3HGydNFD6

JonWC

Can anyone tell me if there is a decent spread market for GE seats anywhere?

JBriskin

Yay,

Laptop totally hacked - one presumes by MI6.

However - we do have a 7.8 to celebrate-

http://youtu.be/4aIp7ZbXZDw

JBriskin

JonWC said:

Can anyone tell me if there is a decent spread market for GE seats anywhere?

Work it out with your Casio and your constituencies.

Freggles

THE BRISKMEISTER STRIKES AGAIN

Sean_F

antifrank said:

A new post on the secondary effects of the Greens:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/environmentally-unfriendly-who-loses.html

Though I say it myself, I found this subject interesting.

A very good post. The stereotypical Green voter is a young, non-religious graduate, in a relatively poorly-paying professional job.

The Greens should in with a shout in Norwich South.

richardDodd

Tony Benn..a true socialist...so very Labour..

JBriskin

I appear to be getting a breathing space today. Therefore I can allow, presumably the lurkers, some info-

There was some psephologist bod from Oxbridge - and I almost definitely watched on sky news or daily politics - and he stated-

Con Maj - 25
Lab Maj - 25
Lab Min - 25
Con Min - 25

Morris_Dancer

Good evening, everyone.

I was looking for something else on Twitter but came across a politically relevant tweet that is mildly amusing, on expenditure for US/UK elections:
https://twitter.com/meetthepress/status/526391823213035520

Apparently 80 General Elections in the UK could be paid for with the money spent on the US mid-terms in 2014.

GeoffM

isam said:

FPT

GeoffM • Posts: 1,663
Those who insist on a "minimum wage" must accept that it will become the default wage for the low skilled and low productivity group. An employer has no incentive or need to pay just slightly above

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

As long as we have mass immigration of economic migrants the amount of people on the minimum wage is bound to increase... any job that is paid £10 ph will soon become a £6.50ph and so on

The bosses wont lower the prices for consumer s though, so everything costs more despite the wage freeze/deflation. Mass immigration just pays for rich peoples profit margin to get bigger

Yes, agree with that all - including (as an employer and not-yet-but-wannabe rich person) the last bit. .

rcs1000

anotherDave said:

Surely the collapse of the LDs makes another hung parliament less rather than more likely?

The Independent's article on Conservative Party funds being directed towards defence rather than target seats suggests a Labour majority.

That's my view too.

So far, it has been an unprofitable one.

RobD

JBriskin said:

I appear to be getting a breathing space today. Therefore I can allow, presumably the lurkers, some info-

There was some psephologist bod from Oxbridge - and I almost definitely watched on sky news or daily politics - and he stated-

Con Maj - 25
Lab Maj - 25
Lab Min - 25
Con Min - 25

Probably these guys -- http://electionsetc.com/

GeoffM

Morris_Dancer said:

Good evening, everyone.

I was looking for something else on Twitter but came across a politically relevant tweet that is mildly amusing, on expenditure for US/UK elections:
https://twitter.com/meetthepress/status/526391823213035520

Apparently 80 General Elections in the UK could be paid for with the money spent on the US mid-terms in 2014.

Are NBC aware that the US and the UK are different sizes?

Peter_the_Punter

david_kendrick1 said:

UKIP would be well pleased with NOM. As has been repeatedly stated, we wouldn't win an out referendum against all the other party leaders campaigning to stay in. Some tories on here claim that makes us 'frit'. We'll only get one chance of a referendum; it would be odd if we were not nervous of losing it.

NOM makes Brexit more likely.

Hi David. Good to see you posting again.

How are your plans to become an MP going? Still putting your name forward?

JBriskin

RobD said:

JBriskin said:

I appear to be getting a breathing space today. Therefore I can allow, presumably the lurkers, some info-

There was some psephologist bod from Oxbridge - and I almost definitely watched on sky news or daily politics - and he stated-

Con Maj - 25
Lab Maj - 25
Lab Min - 25
Con Min - 25

Probably these guys -- http://electionsetc.com/

I clicked on your link and it came up quite promptly with the name Stephen Fisher. I presume there is more than one psephologist in the country...

Morris_Dancer

Mr. M, to be fair, the US population is about six or seven times that of the UK, so even allowing for that, the difference is significant.

rcs1000

GeoffM said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good evening, everyone.

I was looking for something else on Twitter but came across a politically relevant tweet that is mildly amusing, on expenditure for US/UK elections:
https://twitter.com/meetthepress/status/526391823213035520

Apparently 80 General Elections in the UK could be paid for with the money spent on the US mid-terms in 2014.

Are NBC aware that the US and the UK are different sizes?

Given how low turnout will be at the mid-terms, the gap is smaller than you think.

Sean_F

rcs1000 said:

anotherDave said:

Surely the collapse of the LDs makes another hung parliament less rather than more likely?

The Independent's article on Conservative Party funds being directed towards defence rather than target seats suggests a Labour majority.

That's my view too.

So far, it has been an unprofitable one.

Defence + gains from the Lib Dems could still see the Conservatives on c.300 seats. I can't see anything in current polling or actual election results that points to a Labour majority.

RobD

GeoffM said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good evening, everyone.

I was looking for something else on Twitter but came across a politically relevant tweet that is mildly amusing, on expenditure for US/UK elections:
https://twitter.com/meetthepress/status/526391823213035520

Apparently 80 General Elections in the UK could be paid for with the money spent on the US mid-terms in 2014.

Are NBC aware that the US and the UK are different sizes?

A fairer comparison would be the amount we spend on locals.. I imagine the factor would be closer to 250x....

Edit - actually, probably not fairer, given that the legislature is up for election in the mid-terms.

rcs1000

Socrates said:

I've been saying NOM resulting in a Lib-Lab coalition for some time. I've seen nothing that would change my mind. If it happens, the result would be fantastic for UKIP's electoral prospects: just a couple of years in there will be huge numbers of disillusioned Lib-Lab voters.

I don't think a rump (sub 20 mps) Libdem party is going to be going into coalition with anyone.

JBriskin

Topic: Election money

Tories:millionaires
Labour: unions
Lib Dems: we don't really know but a fair few hundred quids from door knocking.

Brisky Memo Over

RobD

Got lost due to the curse of the new thread... a warning from across the Channel:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11187602/The-wealth-tax-a-tax-on-the-rich-that-cripples-the-poor.html

JBriskin

Addendum:

Ukip: EU expenses (please don't sue me Farrrage)

MarkHopkins

JBriskin said:

There was some psephologist bod from Oxbridge - and I almost definitely watched on sky news or daily politics - and he stated-

Con Maj - 25
Lab Maj - 25
Lab Min - 25
Con Min - 25

I think I can confidently make a prediction:-

Con Maj - Possibly
Lab Maj - Maybe
Lab Min - Could be
Con Min - Might happen

GeoffM

RobD said:

GeoffM said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good evening, everyone.

I was looking for something else on Twitter but came across a politically relevant tweet that is mildly amusing, on expenditure for US/UK elections:
https://twitter.com/meetthepress/status/526391823213035520

Apparently 80 General Elections in the UK could be paid for with the money spent on the US mid-terms in 2014.

Are NBC aware that the US and the UK are different sizes?

A fairer comparison would be the amount we spend on locals.. I imagine the factor would be closer to 250x....

Edit - actually, probably not fairer, given that the legislature is up for election in the mid-terms.

Yes - as a number in isolation it's an interesting observation but the comparison doesn't survive much scrutiny.

JBriskin

MarkHopkins said:

JBriskin said:

There was some psephologist bod from Oxbridge - and I almost definitely watched on sky news or daily politics - and he stated-

Con Maj - 25
Lab Maj - 25
Lab Min - 25
Con Min - 25

I think I can confidently make a prediction:-

Con Maj - Possibly
Lab Maj - Maybe
Lab Min - Could be
Con Min - Might happen

Are you Oxbridge as well?

Serious question.

Scrapheap_as_was

I repeat he needs to get over it.... can't help himself.

Douglas Carswell MP ✔ @DouglasCarswell
“@SkyNews: Are The Conservatives Trying To Out-UKIP UKIP? http://news.sky.com/story/1360747/are-the-conservatives-trying-to-out-ukip-ukip …” <- crass folly of sofa clique in Downing St exposed

MarkHopkins

JBriskin said:

MarkHopkins said:

JBriskin said:

There was some psephologist bod from Oxbridge - and I almost definitely watched on sky news or daily politics - and he stated-

Con Maj - 25
Lab Maj - 25
Lab Min - 25
Con Min - 25

I think I can confidently make a prediction:-

Con Maj - Possibly
Lab Maj - Maybe
Lab Min - Could be
Con Min - Might happen

Are you Oxbridge as well?

Serious question.

Possibly. Why?

Flightpath

david_kendrick1 said:

UKIP would be well pleased with NOM. As has been repeatedly stated, we wouldn't win an out referendum against all the other party leaders campaigning to stay in. Some tories on here claim that makes us 'frit'. We'll only get one chance of a referendum; it would be odd if we were not nervous of losing it.

NOM makes Brexit more likely.

Weasel words when it comes to to running cravenly away from the opportunity of a referendum.
The tories offer a referendum. NOM makes that less likey and so staying in more likely.

JBriskin

MarkHopkins said:

JBriskin said:

MarkHopkins said:

JBriskin said:

There was some psephologist bod from Oxbridge - and I almost definitely watched on sky news or daily politics - and he stated-

Con Maj - 25
Lab Maj - 25
Lab Min - 25
Con Min - 25

I think I can confidently make a prediction:-

Con Maj - Possibly
Lab Maj - Maybe
Lab Min - Could be
Con Min - Might happen

Are you Oxbridge as well?

Serious question.

Possibly. Why?

Because my source was solid and from Oxbridge - presumably Dr or Prof. You are posting on a serious betting forum. My Stats are solid as fuck and you are taking the piss out of them.

Socrates

Angela Merkel opposes Cameron EU renegotiation plan

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/26/angela-merkel-opposes-cameron-eu-renegotiation-plan

Downing Street has suggested his proposals will either be a points system for EU migration, or, if they're less brave, a proper emergency brake. He claims the UK public are "his boss", not anyone in the EU, so let's see whether his proposals follow through or not. I have a feeling he will buckle to his EU masters, as he did with the veto that wasn't, but let us see.

nigel4england

My three card bets all won at 5/2, 2/1 and 2/1 ish.

Who said this isn't a betting site any more!

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Scrapheap, he's still scweaming.

There's a special contempt people have for those whom they once held dear.

Sean_F

Socrates said:

I've been saying NOM resulting in a Lib-Lab coalition for some time. I've seen nothing that would change my mind. If it happens, the result would be fantastic for UKIP's electoral prospects: just a couple of years in there will be huge numbers of disillusioned Lib-Lab voters.

I think the Conservatives would adopt Brexit and move well to the Right, in Opposition to such a government, and that would shoot UKIP's fox. Like you, my attitude to parties is an instrumental one. Such a Conservative party would regain my support, if I thought they were genuine.

If the Conservatives remained as they are, in Opposition to such a government, then UKIP's prospects would be golden, particularly if Milliband actually implemented his affirmative action proposals for ethnic minorities.

Socrates

Sean_F said:

Socrates said:

I've been saying NOM resulting in a Lib-Lab coalition for some time. I've seen nothing that would change my mind. If it happens, the result would be fantastic for UKIP's electoral prospects: just a couple of years in there will be huge numbers of disillusioned Lib-Lab voters.

I think the Conservatives would adopt Brexit and move well to the Right, in Opposition to such a government, and that would shoot UKIP's fox. Like you, my attitude to parties is an instrumental one. Such a Conservative party would regain my support, if I thought they were genuine.

If the Conservatives remained as they are, in Opposition to such a government, then UKIP's prospects would be golden, particularly if Milliband actually implemented his affirmative action proposals for ethnic minorities.

If the Tories adopted Brexit as policy in opposition, then they should merge with UKIP. The "Conservatives" brand is so stained as being upper class at the moment that it would be a great chance of a rebranding exercise. They could say they are making a new party to represent all Britons, poor and rich, north and south, with a new name. "The Reform Party" would work.

GeoffM

JBriskin said:

My Stats are solid as fuck and you are taking the piss out of them.

Is that one of these new-fanged metric measurements? Or is it one of the really useful ones like 'size of Wales' which is the industry standard SI unit for icebergs? Or the Nelson's Column which is invaluable for skyscraper visualisation?

MarkHopkins

JBriskin said:

MarkHopkins said:

JBriskin said:

MarkHopkins said:

JBriskin said:

There was some psephologist bod from Oxbridge - and I almost definitely watched on sky news or daily politics - and he stated-

Con Maj - 25
Lab Maj - 25
Lab Min - 25
Con Min - 25

I think I can confidently make a prediction:-

Con Maj - Possibly
Lab Maj - Maybe
Lab Min - Could be
Con Min - Might happen

Are you Oxbridge as well?

Serious question.

Possibly. Why?

Because my source was solid and from Oxbridge - presumably Dr or Prof. You are posting on a serious betting forum. My Stats are solid as fuck and you are taking the piss out of them.

Are you drunk?

Socrates

Violent robber absconds from open prison:

http://www.kentonline.co.uk/sheerness/news/violent-robber-on-the-run-25918/

The Ken Clarke-style liberal prison policy needs to end. It's a risk to the general public. Violent robbers should be in six square foot cells in maximum security prisons, not in holiday camps.

JBriskin

GeoffM said:

JBriskin said:

My Stats are solid as fuck and you are taking the piss out of them.

Is that one of these new-fanged metric measurements? Or is it one of the really useful ones like 'size of Wales' which is the industry standard SI unit for icebergs? Or the Nelson's Column which is invaluable for skyscraper visualisation?

I didn't italicise.

You did.

However, since I probably improve on misquotation, har har har...

In this case, I shall reaffirm because of my relative faith in them - And because I'm pro-lurker and pro-PB, that an Oxbridge Dr or Prof, stated that the odds were-

Con Maj - 25
Lab Maj - 25
Con Min - 25
Lab Min - 25

EDITED - you may choose your own reason

JBriskin

MarkHopkins said:

JBriskin said:

MarkHopkins said:

JBriskin said:

MarkHopkins said:

JBriskin said:

There was some psephologist bod from Oxbridge - and I almost definitely watched on sky news or daily politics - and he stated-

Con Maj - 25
Lab Maj - 25
Lab Min - 25
Con Min - 25

I think I can confidently make a prediction:-

Con Maj - Possibly
Lab Maj - Maybe
Lab Min - Could be
Con Min - Might happen

Are you Oxbridge as well?

Serious question.

Possibly. Why?

Because my source was solid and from Oxbridge - presumably Dr or Prof. You are posting on a serious betting forum. My Stats are solid as fuck and you are taking the piss out of them.

Are you drunk?

Are you sober?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. F, not fond of the term 'affirmative action'. It's just bigotry which someone who's 'right on' has decided is acceptable. We should judge men by the content of their character, not the colour of their skin.

PrinceofTaranto

So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

JBriskin

PrinceofTaranto said:

So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

I would say to this - SHITE

But since we are all aspiring writers here I will merely say-

Very Poor

Pulpstar

rcs1000 said:

anotherDave said:

Surely the collapse of the LDs makes another hung parliament less rather than more likely?

The Independent's article on Conservative Party funds being directed towards defence rather than target seats suggests a Labour majority.

That's my view too.

So far, it has been an unprofitable one.

Just which seats are the Lib Dems going to lose though ?

Tory targets:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/

I think it would be fair to hand all Lib Dem targets down to Berwick Upon Tweed (Not Norwich South or Bradford East though) and not Sutton and Cheam.

I make that 12 gains.

Looking at Labour's list I make it 11 gains for them.

UKIP Gain 10 seats say - 8 Tory 2 Labour

SNP gain 3 Labour perhaps ? (The Lib Dem seats surely drop more easily than the Labour targets)

So Con + 12
Lab + 11
Con -8
Lab -2
Lab -3

Yields a start point of Con +4; Lab -6 from the 2010 totals.

The main contradiction in my mind at the moment is the local Lib Dem strength in in particular the SW which made these gains TRICKY for the Tories, and the appalling Lib Dem national numbers.

I think @David Herdson of this parish said that in order for the Lib Dems to hold some seats they'd need to lose 6 out of 7 votes elsewhere, which he thought inconceivable. Perhaps it isn't.

PrinceofTaranto

JBriskin said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

I would say to this - SHITE

But since we are all aspiring writers here I will merely say-

Very Poor

Sorry what is very poor? The fact she was there or that I have asked a question?

volcanopete

rcs1000 said:

Socrates said:

I've been saying NOM resulting in a Lib-Lab coalition for some time. I've seen nothing that would change my mind. If it happens, the result would be fantastic for UKIP's electoral prospects: just a couple of years in there will be huge numbers of disillusioned Lib-Lab voters.

I don't think a rump (sub 20 mps) Libdem party is going to be going into coalition with anyone.

Norman Lamb made in very clear at L/D conference that partnering up with Labour was not going to happen and for Labour there is still the presence of Clegg to overcome. L/D M ,especially Lamb's fellow Orange book neo-cons,didn't argue with him whatever L/D members might say.The only game in town for the L/Ds is another coalition with the Tories.

AndreaParma_82

2011 census says 1,721 lives in Broxtowe. Some of them may already be Nick's fans.

PrinceofTaranto said:

So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

Pulpstar

I'm not really tempted to add to NOM at odds on.

JBriskin

PrinceofTaranto said:

JBriskin said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

I would say to this - SHITE

But since we are all aspiring writers here I will merely say-

Very Poor

Sorry what is very poor? The fact she was there or that I have asked a question?

YOU HAVE 10 POSTS AND HAVE MANAGED TO PATHETICALLY REFERENCE NPXNP AS WELL AS CONFIRMED TEAM CASIO MEMBER SUNIL IN ONE POST

You'll probably manage to wind us all up within a few months and be PB Star.

Have fun

PrinceofTaranto

AndreaParma_82 said:

2011 census says 1,721 lives in Broxtowe. Some of them may already be Nick's fans.

PrinceofTaranto said:

So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

Thanks .Not many then but in a tight election....

numbercruncher

I've updated my Scottish Westminster estimates with the latest data, toplines are:

SNP 41 (+2)
LAB 26 (-1)
CON 17 (=)
LIB 5 (-2)
GRN 5 (+1)
UKIP 2 (-1)
OTH 4 (=)

This is, as before, very similar to the crosstab aggregation method, which suggests that the weighting bias is quite small. Full details including comparison and charts here:

http://numbercruncheruk.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/scotland-update-snp-41-2-lab-26-1-con.html

Also, if anyone is following Brazil tonight, I've had a look at Brazilian polling. There is a clear 'shy PSDB factor' in first round voting, but the second round can be all over the place:

http://numbercruncheruk.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/is-there-shy-tory-factor-in-brazil.html

MikeSmithson

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

anotherDave said:

Surely the collapse of the LDs makes another hung parliament less rather than more likely?

The Independent's article on Conservative Party funds being directed towards defence rather than target seats suggests a Labour majority.

That's my view too.

So far, it has been an unprofitable one.

Just which seats are the Lib Dems going to lose though ?

Tory targets:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/

I think it would be fair to hand all Lib Dem targets down to Berwick Upon Tweed (Not Norwich South or Bradford East though) and not Sutton and Cheam.

I make that 12 gains.

Looking at Labour's list I make it 11 gains for them.

UKIP Gain 10 seats say - 8 Tory 2 Labour

SNP gain 3 Labour perhaps ? (The Lib Dem seats surely drop more easily than the Labour targets)

So Con + 12
Lab + 11
Con -8
Lab -2
Lab -3

Yields a start point of Con +4; Lab -6 from the 2010 totals.

The main contradiction in my mind at the moment is the local Lib Dem strength in in particular the SW which made these gains TRICKY for the Tories, and the appalling Lib Dem national numbers.

I think @David Herdson of this parish said that in order for the Lib Dems to hold some seats they'd need to lose 6 out of 7 votes elsewhere, which he thought inconceivable. Perhaps it isn't.

Any seat that Lord A had the LDs within 5% will probably go yellow. Lord A doesn't mention candidates' names and the polling I've seen oes shows this is a major factor.

Against LAB Simon Hughes and possibly Lynne Featherstone will hold on as will Cambridge.

Watford is an LD gain and there's an outside chance of Oxwab.

Incumbents standing again against the Tories will do okay. Where there's new candidate it will be different.

Finally watch Burnley. Individuals matter enormously and the incumbent is very strong.

Itajai

Good to see Tony Benn took a cue from the Millipedes in their attitude to IHT. Strictly for the proles.

PrinceofTaranto

JBriskin said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

JBriskin said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

I would say to this - SHITE

But since we are all aspiring writers here I will merely say-

Very Poor

Sorry what is very poor? The fact she was there or that I have asked a question?

YOU HAVE 10 POSTS AND HAVE MANAGED TO PATHETICALLY REFERENCE NPXNP AS WELL AS CONFIRMED TEAM CASIO MEMBER SUNIL IN ONE POST

You'll probably manage to wind us all up within a few months and be PB Star.

Have fun

Well you have to start somewhere.If you all find it so pathetic I don't think I'll bother - I thought this site wanted to encourage new participants or is it an old lags only affair?

MikeSmithson

JBriskin said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

I would say to this - SHITE

But since we are all aspiring writers here I will merely say-

Very Poor

I think Anna Soubry has already given up. Nick P will be back with reasonable margin. Lord A had 45% 2010 LDs switching to him and he's done a huge amount on the ground.

Like Nick the candidates in 10 of LAB's top 40 targets are retreads. It'll be interesting to see if they still have an incumbency benefit.

GeoffM

JBriskin said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

JBriskin said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

I would say to this - SHITE

But since we are all aspiring writers here I will merely say-

Very Poor

Sorry what is very poor? The fact she was there or that I have asked a question?

YOU HAVE 10 POSTS AND HAVE MANAGED TO PATHETICALLY REFERENCE NPXNP AS WELL AS CONFIRMED TEAM CASIO MEMBER SUNIL IN ONE POST

You'll probably manage to wind us all up within a few months and be PB Star.

Have fun

Post number snobbery? Really?

(belated) Welcome to PB, PrinceofTaranto.

JBriskin

PrinceofTaranto said:

JBriskin said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

JBriskin said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

I would say to this - SHITE

But since we are all aspiring writers here I will merely say-

Very Poor

Sorry what is very poor? The fact she was there or that I have asked a question?

YOU HAVE 10 POSTS AND HAVE MANAGED TO PATHETICALLY REFERENCE NPXNP AS WELL AS CONFIRMED TEAM CASIO MEMBER SUNIL IN ONE POST

You'll probably manage to wind us all up within a few months and be PB Star.

Have fun

Well you have to start somewhere.If you all find it so pathetic I don't think I'll bother - I thought this site wanted to encourage new participants or is it an old lags only affair?

I just broke Channel 4 with a 2 quid 7/1 min bet. You may or may not know that. I can type for a bit more.

May I ask you -

Does Taranto refer to Tarantino or Toronoto or both??

Morris_Dancer

Prince of Taranto, not sure what Briskin's meaning was there. I also wouldn't necessarily take any one individual (except Ave It, of course) as indicative or representative of the site as a whole.

JBriskin

MikeSmithson said:

JBriskin said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

I would say to this - SHITE

But since we are all aspiring writers here I will merely say-

Very Poor

I think Anna Soubry has already given up. Nick P will be back with reasonable margin. Lord A had 45% 2010 LDs switching to him and he's done a huge amount on the ground.

Like Nick the candidates in 10 of LAB's top 40 targets are retreads. It'll be interesting to see if they still have an incumbency benefit.

Anna S has the PB effect to some existent Mr S...

Pulpstar

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

anotherDave said:

Surely the collapse of the LDs makes another hung parliament less rather than more likely?

The Independent's article on Conservative Party funds being directed towards defence rather than target seats suggests a Labour majority.

That's my view too.

So far, it has been an unprofitable one.

Just which seats are the Lib Dems going to lose though ?

Tory targets:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/

I think it would be fair to hand all Lib Dem targets down to Berwick Upon Tweed (Not Norwich South or Bradford East though) and not Sutton and Cheam.

I make that 12 gains.

Looking at Labour's list I make it 11 gains for them.

UKIP Gain 10 seats say - 8 Tory 2 Labour

SNP gain 3 Labour perhaps ? (The Lib Dem seats surely drop more easily than the Labour targets)

So Con + 12
Lab + 11
Con -8
Lab -2
Lab -3

Yields a start point of Con +4; Lab -6 from the 2010 totals.

The main contradiction in my mind at the moment is the local Lib Dem strength in in particular the SW which made these gains TRICKY for the Tories, and the appalling Lib Dem national numbers.

I think @David Herdson of this parish said that in order for the Lib Dems to hold some seats they'd need to lose 6 out of 7 votes elsewhere, which he thought inconceivable. Perhaps it isn't.

Any seat that Lord A had the LDs within 5% will probably go yellow. Lord A doesn't mention candidates' names and the polling I've seen oes shows this is a major factor.

Against LAB Simon Hughes and possibly Lynne Featherstone will hold on as will Cambridge.

Watford is an LD gain and there's an outside chance of Oxwab.

Incumbents standing again against the Tories will do okay. Where there's new candidate it will be different.

Finally watch Burnley. Individuals matter enormously and the incumbent is very strong.

Sounds like you're predicting a bit more than the 20 seats your son has gone for !

I've only placed 1 decent bet for Tory vs Lib Dem (Solihull)

PrinceofTaranto

MikeSmithson said:

JBriskin said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

I would say to this - SHITE

But since we are all aspiring writers here I will merely say-

Very Poor

I think Anna Soubry has already given up. Nick P will be back with reasonable margin. Lord A had 45% 2010 LDs switching to him and he's done a huge amount on the ground.

Like Nick the candidates in 10 of LAB's top 40 targets are retreads. It'll be interesting to see if they still have an incumbency benefit.

From a UKIP point of view Anna Soubry I believe is public enemy number one after the Farage QT affair. What I am not sure is what they will do to help get her out but if they have anything to do with it I also think she will be a goner .

JohnO

MikeSmithson said:

JBriskin said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

I would say to this - SHITE

But since we are all aspiring writers here I will merely say-

Very Poor

I think Anna Soubry has already given up. Nick P will be back with reasonable margin. Lord A had 45% 2010 LDs switching to him and he's done a huge amount on the ground.

Like Nick the candidates in 10 of LAB's top 40 targets are retreads. It'll be interesting to see if they still have an incumbency benefit.

Have you any evidence, I mean any evidence at all, that Anna Soubry has "given up"?

PrinceofTaranto

GeoffM said:

JBriskin said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

JBriskin said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

I would say to this - SHITE

But since we are all aspiring writers here I will merely say-

Very Poor

Sorry what is very poor? The fact she was there or that I have asked a question?

YOU HAVE 10 POSTS AND HAVE MANAGED TO PATHETICALLY REFERENCE NPXNP AS WELL AS CONFIRMED TEAM CASIO MEMBER SUNIL IN ONE POST

You'll probably manage to wind us all up within a few months and be PB Star.

Have fun

Post number snobbery? Really?

(belated) Welcome to PB, PrinceofTaranto.

Thanks .I have enjoyed it so far.

dr_spyn

Someone called that Ivanovic was likely to take a long walk yesterday. Good call for whoever it was.

AndreaParma_82

or to Italian town Taranto?

JBriskin said:

Does Taranto refer to Tarantino or Toronoto or both??

MikeSmithson

Pulpstar said:

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

anotherDave said:

Surely the collapse of the LDs makes another hung parliament less rather than more likely?

The Independent's article on Conservative Party funds being directed towards defence rather than target seats suggests a Labour majority.

That's my view too.

So far, it has been an unprofitable one.

Just which seats are the Lib Dems going to lose though ?

Tory targets:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/

I think it would be fair to hand all Lib Dem targets down to Berwick Upon Tweed (Not Norwich South or Bradford East though) and not Sutton and Cheam.

I make that 12 gains.

Looking at Labour's list I make it 11 gains for them.

UKIP Gain 10 seats say - 8 Tory 2 Labour

SNP gain 3 Labour perhaps ? (The Lib Dem seats surely drop more easily than the Labour targets)

So Con + 12
Lab + 11
Con -8
Lab -2
Lab -3

Yields a start point of Con +4; Lab -6 from the 2010 totals.

The main contradiction in my mind at the moment is the local Lib Dem strength in in particular the SW which made these gains TRICKY for the Tories, and the appalling Lib Dem national numbers.

I think @David Herdson of this parish said that in order for the Lib Dems to hold some seats they'd need to lose 6 out of 7 votes elsewhere, which he thought inconceivable. Perhaps it isn't.

Any seat that Lord A had the LDs within 5% will probably go yellow. Lord A doesn't mention candidates' names and the polling I've seen oes shows this is a major factor.

Against LAB Simon Hughes and possibly Lynne Featherstone will hold on as will Cambridge.

Watford is an LD gain and there's an outside chance of Oxwab.

Incumbents standing again against the Tories will do okay. Where there's new candidate it will be different.

Finally watch Burnley. Individuals matter enormously and the incumbent is very strong.

Sounds like you're predicting a bit more than the 20 seats your son has gone for !

I've only placed 1 decent bet for Tory vs Lib Dem (Solihull)

I don't think my son has access to the same data that I have.

Morris_Dancer

Dr. Parma, is Taranto the modern name for Tarentum?

PrinceofTaranto

JBriskin said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

JBriskin said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

JBriskin said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

I would say to this - SHITE

But since we are all aspiring writers here I will merely say-

Very Poor

Sorry what is very poor? The fact she was there or that I have asked a question?

YOU HAVE 10 POSTS AND HAVE MANAGED TO PATHETICALLY REFERENCE NPXNP AS WELL AS CONFIRMED TEAM CASIO MEMBER SUNIL IN ONE POST

You'll probably manage to wind us all up within a few months and be PB Star.

Have fun

Well you have to start somewhere.If you all find it so pathetic I don't think I'll bother - I thought this site wanted to encourage new participants or is it an old lags only affair?

I just broke Channel 4 with a 2 quid 7/1 min bet. You may or may not know that. I can type for a bit more.

May I ask you -

Does Taranto refer to Tarantino or Toronoto or both??

No it is a city and province in Southern Italy in Apulia

Paul_Mid_Beds

MikeSmithson said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Equally possible as I see it is a pathetically small Conservative majority due to the Labour vote being split 1983 style by UKIP.

And UKIP is not going to spit the CON vote as is shown very sharply in Lord A's extensive poll. Ignore at your peril my friend.

Agree that his what his polls indicate. However, I think that Labour will collapse once the election nears and people have to make a decision, just as in 1992, look at Ed and decide "Not you mate", a lot of those will go to UKIP.

The tories have a "hold on to nurse for fear of something worse" advantage as a lot of people will allow their wallet to vote for them (those with assets/money to lose if Labour come in and implode the economy or implement a hard left economic agenda with wealth taxes etc, or just if they fear whether they are economically competent.

In such a situation UKIP will start picking up more Labour than tory voters in marginals and will produce a 1983 situation, handing the tories a disproportionate number of seats.

If the Tories do get a majority though, be afraid be very afraid. Once they implement things like Beecroft they will be exceptionally unpopular.

JBriskin

AndreaParma_82 said:

or to Italian town Taranto?

JBriskin said:

Does Taranto refer to Tarantino or Toronoto or both??

I would dismiss that as unlikely given I've got MI6 on my back - but, maybe...

AndreaParma_82

Yes (and yes, I had to check)

Morris_Dancer said:

Dr. Parma, is Taranto the modern name for Tarentum?

GeoffM

JBriskin said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

JBriskin said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

JBriskin said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

So apparently Anna Soubry was at the anti- Indian Kashmir rally at Trafalgar Square today. Any idea how many Indian voters there are in Broxtowe she has just lost?

I would say to this - SHITE

But since we are all aspiring writers here I will merely say-

Very Poor

Sorry what is very poor? The fact she was there or that I have asked a question?

YOU HAVE 10 POSTS AND HAVE MANAGED TO PATHETICALLY REFERENCE NPXNP AS WELL AS CONFIRMED TEAM CASIO MEMBER SUNIL IN ONE POST

You'll probably manage to wind us all up within a few months and be PB Star.

Have fun

Well you have to start somewhere.If you all find it so pathetic I don't think I'll bother - I thought this site wanted to encourage new participants or is it an old lags only affair?

I just broke Channel 4 with a 2 quid 7/1 min bet. You may or may not know that. I can type for a bit more.

May I ask you -

Does Taranto refer to Tarantino or Toronoto or both??

Probably neither. The city is famous to military historians though:

"Taranto, and the night of November 11–12, 1940, should be remembered for ever as having shown once and for all that in the Fleet Air Arm the Navy has its most devastating weapon." Admiral Cunningham